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1951 Prva savezna liga Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Red Star Belgrade

35 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dinamo Zagreb

5.21 points above expected

35 points · 29.79 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Napredak

8.74 points below expected

6 points · 14.74 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Red Star Belgrade 22 17 1 4 35 50 21 +29 30.05 +4.95
2 Dinamo Zagreb 22 16 3 3 35 45 19 +26 29.79 +5.21
3 Hajduk Split 22 14 4 4 32 52 21 +31 29.48 +2.52
4 Partizan 22 10 4 8 24 34 24 +10 26.95 -2.95
5 BSK Beograd 22 8 6 8 22 34 24 +10 19.34 +2.66
6 Lokomotiva Zagreb 22 7 6 9 20 32 34 -2 18.65 +1.35
7 Sarajevo 22 6 8 8 20 25 39 -14 19.85 +0.15
8 Vojvodina 22 8 3 11 19 26 30 -4 17.93 +1.07
9 Borac Zagreb 22 7 4 11 18 30 33 -3 20.98 -2.98
10 Macva Sabac 22 6 5 11 17 25 33 -8 20.03 -3.03
11 Spartak Subotica 22 7 2 13 16 16 47 -31 16.21 -0.21
12 Napredak 22 2 2 18 6 16 60 -44 14.74 -8.74

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dinamo Zagreb 35 29.79 +5.21
2 Red Star Belgrade 35 30.05 +4.95
3 BSK Beograd 22 19.34 +2.66
4 Hajduk Split 32 29.48 +2.52
5 Lokomotiva Zagreb 20 18.65 +1.35

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Napredak 6 14.74 -8.74
2 Macva Sabac 17 20.03 -3.03
3 Borac Zagreb 18 20.98 -2.98
4 Partizan 24 26.95 -2.95
5 Spartak Subotica 16 16.21 -0.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Red Star Belgrade 10 Aug 12 – Nov 4 1 in 254
2 Vojvodina 3 Apr 8 – Apr 22 1 in 34
3 Dinamo Zagreb 6 Jun 3 – Aug 19 1 in 23
4 Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 Jun 10 – Jun 17 1 in 9
5 BSK Beograd 3 Sep 30 – Oct 20 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Partizan 5 Aug 5 – Sep 16 1 in 1,188
2 Dinamo Zagreb 2 Oct 20 – Oct 28 1 in 53
3 Napredak 7 Apr 29 – Aug 12 1 in 40
4 Red Star Belgrade 3 Jun 3 – Jun 17 1 in 18
5 Vojvodina 4 Jun 17 – Aug 18 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dinamo Zagreb 14 Mar 4 – Aug 19 1 in 59
2 BSK Beograd 7 Sep 16 – Nov 3 1 in 45
3 Vojvodina 4 Apr 8 – Apr 29 1 in 25
4 Red Star Belgrade 12 Jun 20 – Nov 4 1 in 19
5 Hajduk Split 9 Apr 29 – Sep 9 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Napredak 13 Mar 4 – Aug 12 1 in 184
2 Partizan 6 Aug 5 – Sep 23 1 in 129
3 Dinamo Zagreb 3 Oct 20 – Nov 3 1 in 14
4 Sarajevo 4 Sep 16 – Oct 7 1 in 7
5 Macva Sabac 4 Apr 15 – May 27 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Red Star Belgrade 1900 35 +57 10 6.6 +3.4
Dinamo Zagreb 1841 35 -40 5 6.8 -1.8
Hajduk Split 1833 32 +44 7 6.5 +0.5
Partizan 1746 24 +45 7 5.4 +1.6
BSK Beograd 1769 22 +126 8 5.9 +2.1
Sarajevo 1581 20 -3 4 3.6 +0.4
Lokomotiva Zagreb 1637 20 -22 3 4.2 -1.2
Vojvodina 1603 19 +29 5 4.7 +0.3
Borac Zagreb 1632 18 -28 3 5.0 -2.0
Macva Sabac 1595 17 -77 4 4.6 -0.6
Spartak Subotica 1475 16 -91 2 4.1 -2.1
Napredak 1401 6 -39 2 2.6 -0.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BB BZ DZ HS LZ MS NAP PAR RSB SAR SS VOJ
BSK Beograd —
1-0-1
3.03
0-2-0
1.86
1-0-1
1.27
0-0-2
2.71
2-0-0
2.67
1-0-1
2.94
0-1-1
1.74
0-1-1
1.63
0-2-0
3.21
2-0-0
2.93
1-0-1
2.98
Borac Zagreb
1-0-1
2.59
 —
0-0-2
1.30
0-0-2
2.02
1-1-0
3.82
1-1-0
2.63
1-0-1
4.18
1-0-1
1.91
0-0-2
1.63
0-2-0
3.02
1-0-1
3.44
1-0-1
3.28
Dinamo Zagreb
0-2-0
3.76
2-0-0
4.32
 —
1-0-1
2.88
2-0-0
4.04
2-0-0
4.16
2-0-0
4.25
1-1-0
3.34
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
4.22
2-0-0
4.47
2-0-0
4.08
Hajduk Split
1-0-1
4.36
2-0-0
3.60
1-0-1
2.73
 —
1-1-0
4.13
1-1-0
3.79
2-0-0
4.50
1-1-0
2.93
1-0-1
2.33
1-1-0
4.10
2-0-0
4.55
1-0-1
4.18
Lokomotiva Zagreb
2-0-0
2.91
0-1-1
1.79
0-0-2
1.59
0-1-1
1.49
 —
1-1-0
2.82
1-1-0
3.30
0-0-2
1.85
0-0-2
1.28
1-1-0
2.61
2-0-0
2.96
0-1-1
3.16
Macva Sabac
0-0-2
2.95
0-1-1
2.98
0-0-2
1.47
0-1-1
1.83
0-1-1
2.79
 —
2-0-0
3.57
1-0-1
1.80
1-0-1
1.75
1-0-1
2.81
0-1-1
3.61
1-1-0
2.78
Napredak
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
1.44
0-0-2
1.38
0-0-2
1.13
0-1-1
2.32
0-0-2
2.05
 —
0-0-2
1.23
0-0-2
1.15
0-1-1
2.47
0-0-2
2.28
0-0-2
2.79
Partizan
1-1-0
3.88
1-0-1
3.71
0-1-1
2.28
0-1-1
2.68
2-0-0
3.77
1-0-1
3.82
2-0-0
4.40
 —
1-0-1
2.32
0-0-2
3.87
1-0-1
4.37
1-1-0
3.86
Red Star Belgrade
1-1-0
4.00
2-0-0
3.99
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
3.29
2-0-0
4.35
1-0-1
3.88
2-0-0
4.49
1-0-1
3.29
 —
2-0-0
4.18
2-0-0
4.22
2-0-0
4.23
Sarajevo
0-2-0
2.41
0-2-0
2.59
1-0-1
1.41
0-1-1
1.52
0-1-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.80
1-1-0
3.15
2-0-0
1.75
0-0-2
1.44
 —
0-1-1
3.30
1-0-1
3.16
Spartak Subotica
0-0-2
2.68
1-0-1
2.18
0-0-2
1.16
0-0-2
1.09
0-0-2
2.66
1-1-0
2.01
2-0-0
3.33
1-0-1
1.25
0-0-2
1.40
1-1-0
2.32
 —
1-0-1
2.49
Vojvodina
1-0-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.33
0-0-2
1.55
1-0-1
1.44
1-1-0
2.45
0-1-1
2.83
2-0-0
2.83
0-1-1
1.76
0-0-2
1.40
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
3.13
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.87 +6.7
Allowed 0.78 -6.2
Differential 0.89 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.82%10.98%4.92%4.17%1.14%3.03%31.06%
110.98%7.58%4.92%3.79%2.65%1.89%31.82%
24.92%4.92%3.79%1.89%0.76%0.38%16.67%
34.17%3.79%1.89%—0.38%—10.23%
41.14%2.65%0.76%0.38%——4.92%
5+3.03%1.89%0.38%———5.30%
Total31.06%31.82%16.67%10.23%4.92%5.30%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.46 +0.00
SD 1.53 1.53 2.40
CV 1.05 1.05 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%22.73%—4.55%——36.36%
14.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
213.64%—13.64%———27.27%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+9.09%—————9.09%
Total40.91%27.27%18.18%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.09 +0.45
SD 1.71 1.19 2.22
CV 1.11 1.09 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%22.73%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
19.09%13.64%4.55%—4.55%4.55%36.36%
2—9.09%————9.09%
3——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total18.18%50.00%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.50 -0.14
SD 1.87 1.37 2.34
CV 1.37 0.91 —
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—————9.09%
118.18%—4.55%9.09%——31.82%
213.64%9.09%4.55%———27.27%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
44.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total50.00%22.73%18.18%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 0.86 +1.18
SD 1.36 1.04 1.62
CV 0.67 1.20 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%—9.09%——22.73%
113.64%9.09%—4.55%——27.27%
24.55%—————4.55%
3—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
4—13.64%————13.64%
5+9.09%9.09%————18.18%
Total36.36%45.45%4.55%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 0.95 +1.41
SD 2.15 1.00 2.58
CV 0.91 1.05 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
19.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%9.09%—45.45%
2—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
34.55%—————4.55%
4—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total27.27%27.27%18.18%18.18%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.55 -0.09
SD 1.41 1.34 2.09
CV 0.97 0.86 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%18.18%—4.55%4.55%50.00%
1—4.55%4.55%9.09%——18.18%
2—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
313.64%4.55%————18.18%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%22.73%27.27%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.50 -0.36
SD 1.46 1.54 2.52
CV 1.28 1.02 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.73%4.55%13.64%—4.55%45.45%
14.55%4.55%4.55%—9.09%13.64%36.36%
2—4.55%4.55%9.09%——18.18%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total4.55%31.82%13.64%22.73%9.09%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 2.73 -2.00
SD 0.77 1.98 2.05
CV 1.06 0.73 —
Max 2 8 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%4.55%——31.82%
113.64%4.55%13.64%———31.82%
24.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
39.09%—————9.09%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
Total36.36%22.73%36.36%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.09 +0.45
SD 1.71 0.97 2.06
CV 1.11 0.89 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%———4.55%
122.73%—4.55%——4.55%31.82%
213.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
34.55%13.64%4.55%———22.73%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+9.09%—————9.09%
Total54.55%18.18%18.18%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 0.95 +1.32
SD 1.55 1.46 2.40
CV 0.68 1.53 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%—4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
14.55%27.27%—4.55%4.55%—40.91%
24.55%9.09%——9.09%—22.73%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%45.45%4.55%9.09%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.77 -0.64
SD 0.94 1.57 1.89
CV 0.83 0.89 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%50.00%
118.18%4.55%9.09%———31.82%
24.55%4.55%———4.55%13.64%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%27.27%13.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 2.14 -1.41
SD 0.88 2.21 2.65
CV 1.21 1.03 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%22.73%4.55%——4.55%36.36%
113.64%4.55%4.55%9.09%——31.82%
2—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
39.09%4.55%————13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%40.91%13.64%13.64%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.36 -0.18
SD 1.22 1.43 2.06
CV 1.03 1.05 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Red Star Belgrade 1900 35 30.05 +4.95 94.0% 18 24 28 30 32 36 41
Dinamo Zagreb 1841 35 29.79 +5.21 92.0% 23 24 27 30 32 36 38
Hajduk Split 1833 32 29.48 +2.52 78.0% 19 23 27 29 32 36 37
BSK Beograd 1769 22 19.34 +2.66 82.0% 9 12 17 19 22 25 33
Partizan 1746 24 26.95 -2.95 26.0% 17 19 24 27 30 33 38
Lokomotiva Zagreb 1637 20 18.65 +1.35 73.0% 11 13 16 18 21 25 32
Borac Zagreb 1632 18 20.98 -2.98 25.0% 11 14 18 21 23 27 30
Vojvodina 1603 19 17.93 +1.07 71.0% 9 12 15 17 20 25 29
Macva Sabac 1595 17 20.03 -3.03 25.0% 11 13 17 20 22 26 30
Sarajevo 1581 20 19.85 +0.15 55.0% 13 14 17 20 22 24 29
Spartak Subotica 1475 16 16.21 -0.21 55.0% 7 10 14 16 19 23 25
Napredak 1401 6 14.74 -8.74 1.0% 6 9 12 15 17 21 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 33.5% * Slight Edge: 33.5% to 40% * Clear Edge: 40% to 45.5% * Strong Edge: 45.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.15%
No Edge
48.48%18.18%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
161 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
053.05500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.48 goals
Neutral
-2+0.33+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 7 * Wide Open: 7 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.09 * Comfortable: 0.09 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.8
One-Team Race
145710
Champion Preseason Odds
31%
Red Star Belgrade, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.02 * Some Luck: 3.02 to 4.54 * Lucky: 4.54 to 6.05 * Wild Swing: 6.05 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.37 * Close: 1.37 to 2.06 * Off: 2.06 to 2.75 * Way Off: 2.75 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.78 points
Some Luck
03.789
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
01.724
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
94.00%
Red Star Belgrade
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.00%
Napredak
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.09 * Even: 0.09 to 0.11 * Top-Heavy: 0.11 to 0.16 * Lopsided: 0.16 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.15 * Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.35 * Strong Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Wide Separation: 1.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61% * Slight Edge: 61% to 63.5% * Clear Edge: 63.5% to 67% * Wide Edge: 67% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Strong Edge: 86.5% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 20.5% * Very Frequent: 20.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Lopsided
00.090.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 152.27
2.00
Wide Separation
0.91.151.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
75%
Wide Edge
50%61%67%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
95%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Few
0%47%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Very Frequent
0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.54 * Slight Separation: 0.54 to 0.62 * Notable Separation: 0.62 to 0.69 * Lopsided: 0.69 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 15.5% * Upset-Prone: 15.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 18.5% * Very Shaky: 18.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.06
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.49
Some Carryover
00.470.61
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Very Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Very Shaky
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.67
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.98
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.094
Well Within Noise
00.1440.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Red Star Belgrade31.00%30.00%18.00%15.00%5.00%—————1.00%—
Dinamo Zagreb27.00%34.00%21.00%13.00%5.00%———————
Hajduk Split28.00%22.00%25.00%14.00%7.00%2.00%1.00%—1.00%———
Partizan13.00%9.00%24.00%28.00%10.00%8.00%2.00%1.00%3.00%2.00%——
BSK Beograd—1.00%1.00%6.00%8.00%18.00%22.00%14.00%6.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%
Lokomotiva Zagreb—1.00%1.00%4.00%8.00%9.00%17.00%10.00%18.00%11.00%17.00%4.00%
Sarajevo1.00%—1.00%2.00%10.00%21.00%13.00%18.00%12.00%13.00%6.00%3.00%
Vojvodina——2.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%13.00%16.00%11.00%19.00%11.00%13.00%
Borac Zagreb—2.00%4.00%7.00%25.00%17.00%8.00%13.00%8.00%6.00%6.00%4.00%
Macva Sabac—1.00%3.00%6.00%14.00%10.00%13.00%16.00%15.00%13.00%5.00%4.00%
Spartak Subotica———1.00%2.00%5.00%8.00%9.00%15.00%12.00%20.00%28.00%
Napredak————1.00%4.00%3.00%3.00%11.00%14.00%26.00%38.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Dinamo Zagreb 100% —
Hajduk Split 100% —
Partizan 100% —
Red Star Belgrade 99.00% 1.00%
Macva Sabac 91.00% 9.00%
Sarajevo 91.00% 9.00%
Borac Zagreb 90.00% 10.00%
BSK Beograd 86.00% 14.00%
Lokomotiva Zagreb 79.00% 21.00%
Vojvodina 76.00% 24.00%
Spartak Subotica 52.00% 48.00%
Napredak 36.00% 64.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1951-03-04 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-158.7 1673 1598 59.66% 19.10% 21.23%+0.80 +7.6 2
1951-03-04 @ Borac Zagreb L 1-258.7 1598 1673 21.23% 19.10% 59.66%-0.80 -7.6 0
1951-03-04 Macva Sabac W 3-158.1 1749 1673 59.80% 19.10% 21.10%+0.81 +13.2 2
1951-03-04 @ Hajduk Split L 1-358.1 1673 1749 21.10% 19.10% 59.80%-0.81 -13.2 0
1951-03-04 Sarajevo D 1-172.9 1673 1643 54.81% 19.21% 25.99%+0.52 -2.2 1
1951-03-04 @ Napredak D 1-172.9 1643 1673 25.99% 19.21% 54.81%-0.52 +2.2 1
1951-03-04 Red Star Belgrade L 0-157.8 1606 1756 30.83% 19.18% 49.99%-0.60 -11.1 0
1951-03-04 @ BSK Beograd W 1-057.8 1756 1606 49.99% 19.18% 30.83%+0.60 +11.2 2
1951-03-04 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-157.0 1562 1703 31.95% 19.20% 48.86%-0.55 -11.5 0
1951-03-04 @ Vojvodina W 1-057.0 1703 1562 48.86% 19.20% 31.95%+0.55 +11.5 2
1951-03-05 Spartak Subotica W 5-256.1 1771 1607 67.37% 18.78% 13.84%+1.35 +11.0 2
1951-03-05 @ Partizan L 2-556.1 1607 1771 13.84% 18.78% 67.37%-1.35 -11.0 0
1951-03-11 Hajduk Split L 1-559.8 1681 1762 40.04% 19.27% 40.69%-0.18 -41.2 2
1951-03-11 @ Borac Zagreb W 5-159.8 1762 1681 40.69% 19.27% 40.04%+0.18 +41.2 4
1951-03-11 Napredak W 5-154.7 1714 1671 56.28% 19.18% 24.54%+0.60 +27.4 4
1951-03-11 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-554.7 1671 1714 24.54% 19.18% 56.28%-0.60 -27.4 1
1951-03-11 Partizan L 0-159.4 1660 1782 34.47% 19.23% 46.29%-0.43 -12.2 0
1951-03-11 @ Macva Sabac W 1-059.4 1782 1660 46.29% 19.23% 34.47%+0.43 +12.2 4
1951-03-11 Vojvodina L 0-357.4 1595 1550 56.48% 19.18% 24.34%+0.61 -51.2 0
1951-03-11 @ BSK Beograd W 3-057.4 1550 1595 24.34% 19.18% 56.48%-0.61 +51.2 2
1951-03-11 Spartak Subotica W 6-047.1 1767 1596 67.92% 18.75% 13.33%+1.39 +27.9 4
1951-03-11 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-647.1 1596 1767 13.33% 18.75% 67.92%-1.39 -27.9 0
1951-03-11 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 0-067.6 1645 1590 57.51% 19.16% 23.33%+0.67 -3.0 2
1951-03-11 @ Sarajevo D 0-067.6 1590 1645 23.33% 19.16% 57.51%-0.67 +3.0 1
1951-04-01 Sarajevo W 4-153.7 1804 1642 67.26% 18.79% 13.95%+1.34 +12.8 6
1951-04-01 @ Hajduk Split L 1-453.7 1642 1804 13.95% 18.79% 67.26%-1.34 -12.8 2
1951-04-01 Dinamo Zagreb L 1-458.1 1593 1741 31.03% 19.18% 49.78%-0.59 -25.9 1
1951-04-01 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 4-158.1 1741 1593 49.78% 19.18% 31.03%+0.59 +25.9 6
1951-04-01 BSK Beograd L 0-262.1 1643 1544 62.05% 19.03% 18.92%+0.95 -38.7 1
1951-04-01 @ Napredak W 2-062.1 1544 1643 18.92% 19.03% 62.05%-0.95 +38.7 2
1951-04-01 Borac Zagreb W 1-053.3 1794 1639 66.71% 18.82% 14.47%+1.29 +5.7 6
1951-04-01 @ Partizan L 0-153.3 1639 1794 14.47% 18.82% 66.71%-1.29 -5.7 2
1951-04-01 Macva Sabac W 3-161.4 1568 1648 40.42% 19.27% 40.31%-0.16 +22.7 2
1951-04-01 @ Spartak Subotica L 1-361.4 1648 1568 40.31% 19.27% 40.42%+0.16 -22.7 0
1951-04-01 Red Star Belgrade L 0-651.1 1601 1795 25.57% 19.07% 55.37%-0.88 -49.8 2
1951-04-01 @ Vojvodina W 6-051.1 1795 1601 55.37% 19.07% 25.57%+0.88 +49.8 6
1951-04-07 Macva Sabac L 1-275.2 1845 1625 71.12% 18.49% 10.39%+1.70 -22.3 6
1951-04-07 @ Red Star Belgrade W 2-175.2 1625 1845 10.39% 18.49% 71.12%-1.70 +22.3 2
1951-04-08 Spartak Subotica W 1-054.1 1634 1591 56.20% 19.18% 24.62%+0.60 +9.2 4
1951-04-08 @ Borac Zagreb L 0-154.1 1591 1634 24.62% 19.18% 56.20%-0.60 -9.2 2
1951-04-08 Hajduk Split W 3-056.1 1767 1816 44.65% 19.28% 36.07%+0.02 +34.8 8
1951-04-08 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-356.1 1816 1767 36.07% 19.28% 44.65%-0.02 -34.8 6
1951-04-08 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-160.8 1583 1567 53.01% 19.23% 27.76%+0.42 -17.6 2
1951-04-08 @ BSK Beograd W 1-060.8 1567 1583 27.76% 19.23% 53.01%-0.42 +17.6 3
1951-04-08 Partizan W 1-064.8 1629 1800 28.26% 19.13% 52.61%-0.73 +17.5 4
1951-04-08 @ Sarajevo L 0-164.8 1800 1629 52.61% 19.13% 28.26%+0.73 -17.5 6
1951-04-08 Napredak W 1-056.1 1552 1605 44.10% 19.28% 36.62%+0.00 +12.9 4
1951-04-08 @ Vojvodina L 0-156.1 1605 1552 36.62% 19.28% 44.10%+0.00 -12.9 1
1951-04-15 BSK Beograd W 1-051.4 1782 1565 70.93% 18.51% 10.56%+1.68 +4.3 8
1951-04-15 @ Hajduk Split L 0-151.4 1565 1782 10.56% 18.51% 70.93%-1.68 -4.3 2
1951-04-15 Vojvodina L 0-161.0 1585 1564 53.67% 19.22% 27.11%+0.46 -17.8 3
1951-04-15 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 1-061.0 1564 1585 27.11% 19.22% 53.67%-0.46 +17.8 6
1951-04-15 Borac Zagreb D 0-068.4 1647 1643 51.68% 19.25% 29.08%+0.36 -1.9 3
1951-04-15 @ Macva Sabac D 0-068.4 1643 1647 29.08% 19.25% 51.68%-0.36 +1.9 5
1951-04-15 Red Star Belgrade L 0-155.4 1592 1822 21.65% 18.94% 59.41%-1.11 -8.2 1
1951-04-15 @ Napredak W 1-055.4 1822 1592 59.41% 18.94% 21.65%+1.11 +8.2 8
1951-04-15 Dinamo Zagreb D 0-070.2 1782 1802 48.58% 19.27% 32.15%+0.21 -1.4 7
1951-04-15 @ Partizan D 0-070.2 1802 1782 32.15% 19.27% 48.58%-0.21 +1.4 9
1951-04-15 Sarajevo W 1-058.2 1582 1647 42.49% 19.28% 38.23%-0.07 +13.3 4
1951-04-15 @ Spartak Subotica L 0-158.2 1647 1582 38.23% 19.28% 42.49%+0.07 -13.3 4
1951-04-21 Borac Zagreb W 3-048.5 1831 1645 68.97% 18.67% 12.35%+1.49 +13.6 10
1951-04-21 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-348.5 1645 1831 12.35% 18.67% 68.97%-1.49 -13.6 5
1951-04-22 Spartak Subotica W 4-046.7 1803 1595 70.42% 18.56% 11.02%+1.63 +15.9 11
1951-04-22 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-446.7 1595 1803 11.02% 18.56% 70.42%-1.63 -16.0 4
1951-04-22 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 2-274.8 1584 1567 53.15% 19.23% 27.62%+0.43 -1.4 2
1951-04-22 @ Napredak D 2-274.8 1567 1584 27.62% 19.23% 53.15%-0.43 +1.4 4
1951-04-22 Partizan L 1-455.6 1561 1781 22.72% 18.98% 58.29%-1.04 -19.8 2
1951-04-22 @ BSK Beograd W 4-155.6 1781 1561 58.29% 18.98% 22.72%+1.04 +19.8 9
1951-04-22 Macva Sabac W 2-054.6 1633 1645 49.61% 19.26% 31.12%+0.26 +21.2 6
1951-04-22 @ Sarajevo L 0-254.6 1645 1633 31.12% 19.26% 49.61%-0.26 -21.2 3
1951-04-22 Hajduk Split W 3-168.3 1582 1786 24.45% 19.04% 56.51%-0.94 +30.5 8
1951-04-22 @ Vojvodina L 1-368.3 1786 1582 56.51% 19.04% 24.45%+0.94 -30.5 8
1951-04-28 Red Star Belgrade L 1-356.8 1569 1844 17.52% 18.75% 63.73%-1.39 -11.1 4
1951-04-28 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-156.8 1844 1569 63.73% 18.75% 17.52%+1.39 +11.1 12
1951-04-29 Sarajevo D 1-172.4 1631 1654 48.15% 19.27% 32.57%+0.19 -1.2 6
1951-04-29 @ Borac Zagreb D 1-172.4 1654 1631 32.57% 19.27% 48.15%-0.19 +1.1 7
1951-04-29 Napredak W 5-150.8 1755 1582 68.10% 18.74% 13.17%+1.41 +15.7 10
1951-04-29 @ Hajduk Split L 1-550.8 1582 1755 13.17% 18.74% 68.10%-1.41 -15.7 2
1951-04-29 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-156.7 1624 1819 25.38% 19.06% 55.56%-0.89 -9.4 3
1951-04-29 @ Macva Sabac W 1-056.7 1819 1624 55.56% 19.06% 25.38%+0.89 +9.4 13
1951-04-29 Vojvodina D 1-173.9 1801 1613 69.10% 18.66% 12.23%+1.50 -4.6 10
1951-04-29 @ Partizan D 1-173.9 1613 1801 12.23% 18.66% 69.10%-1.50 +4.6 9
1951-04-29 BSK Beograd L 0-160.7 1579 1541 55.73% 19.19% 25.08%+0.57 -18.5 4
1951-04-29 @ Spartak Subotica W 1-060.7 1541 1579 25.08% 19.19% 55.73%-0.57 +18.5 4
1951-05-23 BSK Beograd D 0-069.8 1829 1559 73.78% 18.19% 8.03%+2.01 -6.1 14
1951-05-23 @ Dinamo Zagreb D 0-069.8 1559 1829 8.03% 18.19% 73.78%-2.01 +6.1 5
1951-05-27 Hajduk Split D 1-173.1 1558 1771 23.40% 19.00% 57.59%-1.00 +2.6 5
1951-05-27 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-173.1 1771 1558 57.59% 19.00% 23.40%+1.00 -2.6 11
1951-05-27 Partizan L 1-259.9 1566 1796 21.77% 18.95% 59.28%-1.10 -7.8 2
1951-05-27 @ Napredak W 2-159.9 1796 1566 59.28% 18.95% 21.77%+1.10 +7.8 12
1951-05-27 Macva Sabac W 2-054.2 1565 1615 44.66% 19.28% 36.06%+0.02 +23.9 7
1951-05-27 @ BSK Beograd L 0-254.2 1615 1565 36.06% 19.28% 44.66%-0.02 -23.9 3
1951-05-27 Spartak Subotica L 0-162.9 1617 1561 57.74% 19.15% 23.10%+0.68 -19.1 9
1951-05-27 @ Vojvodina W 1-062.9 1561 1617 23.10% 19.15% 57.74%-0.68 +19.1 6
1951-06-03 BSK Beograd W 1-054.0 1630 1589 55.98% 19.19% 24.83%+0.58 +9.3 8
1951-06-03 @ Borac Zagreb L 0-154.0 1589 1630 24.83% 19.19% 55.98%-0.58 -9.3 7
1951-06-03 Red Star Belgrade W 3-271.7 1769 1855 39.32% 19.27% 41.41%-0.21 +12.7 13
1951-06-03 @ Hajduk Split L 2-371.7 1855 1769 41.41% 19.27% 39.32%+0.21 -12.7 12
1951-06-03 Vojvodina W 3-157.8 1591 1598 50.18% 19.26% 30.56%+0.28 +18.1 5
1951-06-03 @ Macva Sabac L 1-357.8 1598 1591 30.56% 19.26% 50.18%-0.28 -18.1 9
1951-06-03 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-048.7 1804 1560 72.45% 18.36% 9.19%+1.85 +7.1 14
1951-06-03 @ Partizan L 0-248.7 1560 1804 9.19% 18.36% 72.45%-1.85 -7.1 5
1951-06-03 Dinamo Zagreb L 2-464.5 1656 1823 28.67% 19.14% 52.19%-0.71 -15.3 7
1951-06-03 @ Sarajevo W 4-264.5 1823 1656 52.19% 19.14% 28.67%+0.71 +15.3 16
1951-06-03 Napredak W 1-052.7 1580 1559 53.73% 19.22% 27.05%+0.46 +10.0 8
1951-06-03 @ Spartak Subotica L 0-152.7 1559 1580 27.05% 19.22% 53.73%-0.46 -10.0 2
1951-06-10 Partizan W 2-057.2 1781 1811 47.31% 19.28% 33.41%+0.15 +22.5 15
1951-06-10 @ Hajduk Split L 0-257.2 1811 1781 33.41% 19.28% 47.31%-0.15 -22.5 14
1951-06-10 Spartak Subotica W 5-049.5 1553 1590 46.35% 19.28% 34.37%+0.10 +53.8 7
1951-06-10 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-549.5 1590 1553 34.37% 19.28% 46.35%-0.10 -53.8 8
1951-06-10 Macva Sabac L 0-353.8 1549 1609 43.14% 19.28% 37.58%-0.04 -40.2 2
1951-06-10 @ Napredak W 3-053.8 1609 1549 37.58% 19.28% 43.14%+0.04 +40.2 7
1951-06-10 Sarajevo D 1-171.3 1580 1640 43.13% 19.28% 37.59%-0.04 -0.4 8
1951-06-10 @ BSK Beograd D 1-171.3 1640 1580 37.59% 19.28% 43.13%+0.04 +0.4 8
1951-06-10 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-262.8 1843 1838 51.73% 19.25% 29.03%+0.36 -32.5 12
1951-06-10 @ Red Star Belgrade W 2-062.8 1838 1843 29.03% 19.25% 51.73%-0.36 +32.5 18
1951-06-10 Borac Zagreb W 1-057.8 1580 1639 43.27% 19.28% 37.45%-0.04 +13.1 11
1951-06-10 @ Vojvodina L 0-157.8 1639 1580 37.45% 19.28% 43.27%+0.04 -13.1 8
1951-06-13 Borac Zagreb W 2-156.7 1870 1626 72.49% 18.35% 9.16%+1.85 +3.5 20
1951-06-13 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-256.7 1626 1870 9.16% 18.35% 72.49%-1.85 -3.5 8
1951-06-17 Napredak W 8-145.8 1623 1508 63.39% 18.98% 17.63%+1.04 +34.3 10
1951-06-17 @ Borac Zagreb L 1-845.8 1508 1623 17.63% 18.98% 63.39%-1.04 -34.3 2
1951-06-17 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-268.9 1649 1607 56.14% 19.18% 24.68%+0.59 -17.5 7
1951-06-17 @ Macva Sabac W 2-168.9 1607 1649 24.68% 19.18% 56.14%-0.59 +17.5 9
1951-06-17 Red Star Belgrade W 6-156.7 1788 1810 48.32% 19.27% 32.41%+0.19 +42.5 16
1951-06-17 @ Partizan L 1-656.7 1810 1788 32.41% 19.27% 48.32%-0.19 -42.5 12
1951-06-17 Vojvodina W 2-158.9 1641 1593 56.74% 19.17% 24.09%+0.63 +8.5 10
1951-06-17 @ Sarajevo L 1-258.9 1593 1641 24.09% 19.17% 56.74%-0.63 -8.5 11
1951-06-17 Hajduk Split L 0-153.7 1536 1804 18.20% 18.79% 63.01%-1.34 -7.0 8
1951-06-17 @ Spartak Subotica W 1-053.7 1804 1536 63.01% 18.79% 18.20%+1.34 +7.0 17
1951-06-20 Sarajevo W 4-048.8 1768 1649 63.78% 18.96% 17.26%+1.07 +24.1 14
1951-06-20 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-448.8 1649 1768 17.26% 18.96% 63.78%-1.07 -24.1 10
1951-08-05 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-172.4 1657 1624 55.05% 19.20% 25.75%+0.53 -2.2 11
1951-08-05 @ Borac Zagreb D 1-172.4 1624 1657 25.75% 19.20% 55.05%-0.53 +2.2 10
1951-08-05 Vojvodina W 3-153.8 1874 1585 74.70% 18.06% 7.24%+2.13 +4.9 22
1951-08-05 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-353.8 1585 1874 7.24% 18.06% 74.70%-2.13 -4.9 11
1951-08-05 Hajduk Split D 0-069.8 1631 1811 27.22% 19.11% 53.67%-0.79 +2.2 8
1951-08-05 @ Macva Sabac D 0-069.8 1811 1631 53.67% 19.11% 27.22%+0.79 -2.2 18
1951-08-05 BSK Beograd D 2-278.7 1792 1580 70.66% 18.54% 10.81%+1.65 -3.7 15
1951-08-05 @ Red Star Belgrade D 2-278.7 1580 1792 10.81% 18.54% 70.66%-1.65 +3.7 9
1951-08-05 Napredak W 3-257.3 1625 1474 66.43% 18.84% 14.73%+1.27 +5.2 12
1951-08-05 @ Sarajevo L 2-357.3 1474 1625 14.73% 18.84% 66.43%-1.27 -5.2 2
1951-08-05 Partizan W 2-173.0 1529 1831 15.43% 18.62% 65.95%-1.55 +20.5 10
1951-08-05 @ Spartak Subotica L 1-273.0 1831 1529 65.95% 18.62% 15.43%+1.55 -20.5 16
1951-08-12 Borac Zagreb W 4-153.9 1808 1655 66.66% 18.82% 14.52%+1.29 +13.3 20
1951-08-12 @ Hajduk Split L 1-453.9 1655 1808 14.52% 18.82% 66.66%-1.29 -13.3 11
1951-08-12 Sarajevo W 4-263.0 1627 1630 50.70% 19.26% 30.05%+0.31 +15.9 12
1951-08-12 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 2-463.0 1630 1627 30.05% 19.26% 50.70%-0.31 -16.0 12
1951-08-12 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-150.7 1469 1879 8.93% 17.96% 73.11%-2.22 -3.6 2
1951-08-12 @ Napredak W 1-050.7 1879 1469 73.11% 17.96% 8.93%+2.22 +3.6 24
1951-08-12 Macva Sabac L 0-365.2 1810 1634 68.33% 18.72% 12.95%+1.43 -62.0 16
1951-08-12 @ Partizan W 3-065.2 1634 1810 12.95% 18.72% 68.33%-1.43 +62.0 10
1951-08-12 Red Star Belgrade L 0-252.1 1550 1788 20.86% 18.91% 60.23%-1.16 -15.0 10
1951-08-12 @ Spartak Subotica W 2-052.1 1788 1550 60.23% 18.91% 20.86%+1.16 +15.0 17
1951-08-12 BSK Beograd L 0-258.1 1580 1583 50.70% 19.26% 30.05%+0.31 -31.9 11
1951-08-12 @ Vojvodina W 2-058.1 1583 1580 30.05% 19.26% 50.70%-0.31 +31.9 11
1951-08-18 Vojvodina W 1-050.8 1803 1548 73.06% 18.28% 8.65%+1.92 +3.5 19
1951-08-18 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-150.8 1548 1803 8.65% 18.28% 73.06%-1.92 -3.5 11
1951-08-19 Partizan W 2-166.9 1641 1748 36.53% 19.25% 44.22%-0.33 +14.1 13
1951-08-19 @ Borac Zagreb L 1-266.9 1748 1641 44.22% 19.25% 36.53%+0.33 -14.1 16
1951-08-19 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-261.6 1882 1643 72.25% 18.38% 9.37%+1.82 +3.4 26
1951-08-19 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 2-361.6 1643 1882 9.37% 18.38% 72.25%-1.82 -3.4 12
1951-08-19 Spartak Subotica D 0-067.6 1696 1535 67.22% 18.79% 13.99%+1.33 -4.8 11
1951-08-19 @ Macva Sabac D 0-067.6 1535 1696 13.99% 18.79% 67.22%-1.33 +4.8 11
1951-08-19 Napredak L 1-267.4 1615 1465 66.36% 18.84% 14.80%+1.26 -20.7 11
1951-08-19 @ BSK Beograd W 2-167.4 1465 1615 14.80% 18.84% 66.36%-1.26 +20.7 4
1951-08-19 Hajduk Split D 1-173.9 1614 1822 24.05% 19.02% 56.92%-0.96 +2.5 13
1951-08-19 @ Sarajevo D 1-173.9 1822 1614 56.92% 19.02% 24.05%+0.96 -2.5 21
1951-09-09 Dinamo Zagreb W 3-164.0 1819 1886 42.21% 19.28% 38.51%-0.08 +21.9 23
1951-09-09 @ Hajduk Split L 1-364.0 1886 1819 38.51% 19.28% 42.21%+0.08 -21.9 26
1951-09-09 BSK Beograd W 1-054.2 1639 1595 56.44% 19.18% 24.38%+0.61 +9.1 14
1951-09-09 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-154.2 1595 1639 24.38% 19.18% 56.44%-0.61 -9.1 11
1951-09-09 Red Star Belgrade L 0-257.6 1691 1807 35.28% 19.24% 45.48%-0.39 -23.5 11
1951-09-09 @ Macva Sabac W 2-057.6 1807 1691 45.48% 19.24% 35.28%+0.39 +23.5 21
1951-09-09 Vojvodina L 1-454.5 1486 1544 43.37% 19.28% 37.35%-0.03 -34.1 4
1951-09-09 @ Napredak W 4-154.5 1544 1486 37.35% 19.28% 43.37%+0.03 +34.1 13
1951-09-09 Sarajevo L 1-272.4 1734 1617 63.65% 18.97% 17.38%+1.06 -19.8 16
1951-09-09 @ Partizan W 2-172.4 1617 1734 17.38% 18.97% 63.65%-1.06 +19.9 15
1951-09-09 Borac Zagreb W 2-057.3 1539 1656 35.23% 19.24% 45.53%-0.39 +29.0 13
1951-09-09 @ Spartak Subotica L 0-257.3 1656 1539 45.53% 19.24% 35.23%+0.39 -29.0 13
1951-09-16 Macva Sabac W 4-053.0 1627 1667 45.80% 19.28% 34.92%+0.08 +44.2 15
1951-09-16 @ Borac Zagreb L 0-453.0 1667 1627 34.92% 19.28% 45.80%-0.08 -44.2 11
1951-09-16 Partizan W 2-051.5 1864 1714 66.35% 18.84% 14.81%+1.26 +11.0 28
1951-09-16 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-251.5 1714 1864 14.81% 18.84% 66.35%-1.26 -11.1 16
1951-09-16 Hajduk Split W 3-063.2 1585 1841 19.26% 18.84% 61.90%-1.26 +55.9 13
1951-09-16 @ BSK Beograd L 0-363.2 1841 1585 61.90% 18.84% 19.26%+1.26 -55.9 23
1951-09-16 Napredak W 3-258.1 1830 1452 78.09% 17.39% 4.52%+2.69 +1.7 23
1951-09-16 @ Red Star Belgrade L 2-358.1 1452 1830 4.52% 17.39% 78.09%-2.69 -1.7 4
1951-09-16 Spartak Subotica D 1-171.1 1637 1568 58.99% 19.12% 21.89%+0.76 -2.9 16
1951-09-16 @ Sarajevo D 1-171.1 1568 1637 21.89% 19.12% 58.99%-0.76 +2.9 14
1951-09-16 Lokomotiva Zagreb D 0-067.4 1579 1648 41.75% 19.28% 38.97%-0.10 -0.2 14
1951-09-16 @ Vojvodina D 0-067.4 1648 1579 38.97% 19.28% 41.75%+0.10 +0.2 15
1951-09-23 Red Star Belgrade L 0-158.2 1671 1832 29.41% 19.16% 51.43%-0.67 -10.7 15
1951-09-23 @ Borac Zagreb W 1-058.2 1832 1671 51.43% 19.16% 29.41%+0.67 +10.7 25
1951-09-23 Vojvodina W 1-051.7 1785 1578 70.33% 18.57% 11.10%+1.62 +4.5 25
1951-09-23 @ Hajduk Split L 0-151.7 1578 1785 11.10% 18.57% 70.33%-1.62 -4.5 14
1951-09-23 Napredak W 4-147.2 1649 1450 69.79% 18.61% 11.60%+1.57 +10.8 17
1951-09-23 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-447.2 1450 1649 11.60% 18.61% 69.79%-1.57 -10.8 4
1951-09-23 Sarajevo W 5-051.0 1623 1634 49.78% 19.26% 30.95%+0.26 +49.3 13
1951-09-23 @ Macva Sabac L 0-551.0 1634 1623 30.95% 19.26% 49.78%-0.26 -49.3 16
1951-09-23 BSK Beograd D 2-278.3 1703 1641 58.30% 19.14% 22.56%+0.72 -2.1 17
1951-09-23 @ Partizan D 2-278.3 1641 1703 22.56% 19.14% 58.30%-0.72 +2.1 14
1951-09-23 Dinamo Zagreb L 1-258.4 1571 1875 15.27% 18.61% 66.12%-1.56 -5.7 14
1951-09-23 @ Spartak Subotica W 2-158.4 1875 1571 66.12% 18.61% 15.27%+1.56 +5.7 30
1951-09-30 Macva Sabac W 2-050.2 1881 1672 70.42% 18.56% 11.02%+1.63 +8.4 32
1951-09-30 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-250.2 1672 1881 11.02% 18.56% 70.42%-1.63 -8.4 13
1951-09-30 Hajduk Split L 0-644.8 1440 1790 12.12% 18.35% 69.53%-1.85 -25.3 4
1951-09-30 @ Napredak W 6-044.8 1790 1440 69.53% 18.35% 12.12%+1.85 +25.3 27
1951-09-30 Spartak Subotica W 5-047.1 1643 1566 59.96% 19.10% 20.95%+0.82 +35.3 16
1951-09-30 @ BSK Beograd L 0-547.1 1566 1643 20.95% 19.10% 59.96%-0.82 -35.3 14
1951-09-30 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-155.7 1843 1659 68.79% 18.69% 12.53%+1.47 +8.2 27
1951-09-30 @ Red Star Belgrade L 1-355.7 1659 1843 12.53% 18.69% 68.79%-1.47 -8.2 17
1951-09-30 Borac Zagreb D 1-171.8 1584 1660 40.93% 19.28% 39.79%-0.14 -0.1 17
1951-09-30 @ Sarajevo D 1-171.8 1660 1584 39.79% 19.28% 40.93%+0.14 +0.1 16
1951-09-30 Partizan L 0-157.7 1574 1701 33.75% 19.22% 47.03%-0.46 -12.0 14
1951-09-30 @ Vojvodina W 1-057.7 1701 1574 47.03% 19.22% 33.75%+0.46 +12.0 19
1951-10-07 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-155.9 1660 1889 21.82% 18.95% 59.23%-1.10 -8.3 16
1951-10-07 @ Borac Zagreb W 1-055.9 1889 1660 59.23% 18.95% 21.82%+1.10 +8.3 34
1951-10-07 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 4-153.7 1815 1651 67.41% 18.78% 13.81%+1.35 +12.7 29
1951-10-07 @ Hajduk Split L 1-453.7 1651 1815 13.81% 18.78% 67.41%-1.35 -12.7 17
1951-10-07 BSK Beograd L 0-657.8 1664 1679 49.27% 19.27% 31.46%+0.24 -86.3 13
1951-10-07 @ Macva Sabac W 6-057.8 1679 1664 31.46% 19.27% 49.27%-0.24 +86.3 18
1951-10-07 Napredak W 3-041.7 1713 1414 75.13% 17.99% 6.88%+2.19 +7.8 21
1951-10-07 @ Partizan L 0-341.7 1414 1713 6.88% 17.99% 75.13%-2.19 -7.8 4
1951-10-07 Red Star Belgrade L 1-357.2 1584 1851 18.31% 18.80% 62.90%-1.33 -11.6 17
1951-10-07 @ Sarajevo W 3-157.2 1851 1584 62.90% 18.80% 18.31%+1.33 +11.6 29
1951-10-07 Vojvodina L 1-262.1 1530 1562 47.04% 19.28% 33.68%+0.13 -14.9 14
1951-10-07 @ Spartak Subotica W 2-162.1 1562 1530 33.68% 19.28% 47.04%-0.13 +14.9 16
1951-10-20 Sarajevo L 1-374.4 1897 1573 76.18% 17.81% 6.01%+2.35 -41.4 34
1951-10-20 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 3-174.4 1573 1897 6.01% 17.81% 76.18%-2.35 +41.4 19
1951-10-20 Borac Zagreb W 4-366.8 1765 1652 63.30% 18.98% 17.72%+1.04 +6.0 20
1951-10-20 @ BSK Beograd L 3-466.8 1652 1765 17.72% 18.98% 63.30%-1.04 -6.0 16
1951-10-21 Partizan L 0-356.3 1639 1721 39.97% 19.27% 40.76%-0.18 -37.8 17
1951-10-21 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-056.3 1721 1639 40.76% 19.27% 39.97%+0.18 +37.8 23
1951-10-21 Spartak Subotica L 0-147.8 1406 1515 36.23% 19.25% 44.52%-0.35 -12.7 4
1951-10-21 @ Napredak W 1-047.8 1515 1406 44.52% 19.25% 36.23%+0.35 +12.7 16
1951-10-21 Hajduk Split W 1-057.3 1862 1828 55.30% 19.20% 25.50%+0.55 +9.5 31
1951-10-21 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-157.3 1828 1862 25.50% 19.20% 55.30%-0.55 -9.5 29
1951-10-21 Macva Sabac D 2-274.9 1577 1578 51.02% 19.25% 29.73%+0.32 -1.2 17
1951-10-21 @ Vojvodina D 2-274.9 1578 1577 29.73% 19.25% 51.02%-0.32 +1.2 14
1951-10-27 Vojvodina W 3-262.7 1646 1576 59.19% 19.12% 21.69%+0.77 +7.4 18
1951-10-27 @ Borac Zagreb L 2-362.7 1576 1646 21.69% 19.12% 59.19%-0.77 -7.4 17
1951-10-28 Red Star Belgrade L 1-269.3 1856 1872 49.12% 19.27% 31.62%+0.23 -15.5 34
1951-10-28 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 2-169.3 1872 1856 31.62% 19.27% 49.12%-0.23 +15.5 33
1951-10-28 Napredak W 3-038.1 1579 1394 68.93% 18.68% 12.40%+1.48 +13.6 16
1951-10-28 @ Macva Sabac L 0-338.1 1394 1579 12.40% 18.68% 68.93%-1.48 -13.6 4
1951-10-28 Hajduk Split D 0-070.2 1759 1818 43.20% 19.28% 37.52%-0.04 -0.5 24
1951-10-28 @ Partizan D 0-070.2 1818 1759 37.52% 19.28% 43.20%+0.04 +0.5 30
1951-10-28 BSK Beograd D 0-069.4 1614 1771 29.94% 19.17% 50.90%-0.65 +1.8 20
1951-10-28 @ Sarajevo D 0-069.4 1771 1614 50.90% 19.17% 29.94%+0.65 -1.8 21
1951-10-28 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-352.5 1528 1601 41.35% 19.28% 39.37%-0.12 -38.9 16
1951-10-28 @ Spartak Subotica W 3-052.5 1601 1528 39.37% 19.28% 41.35%+0.12 +38.9 19
1951-11-03 Dinamo Zagreb D 2-279.5 1769 1841 41.56% 19.28% 39.16%-0.11 -0.1 22
1951-11-03 @ BSK Beograd D 2-279.5 1841 1769 39.16% 19.28% 41.56%+0.11 +0.1 35
1951-11-04 Spartak Subotica W 7-044.3 1819 1489 76.37% 17.77% 5.85%+2.38 +14.6 32
1951-11-04 @ Hajduk Split L 0-744.3 1489 1819 5.85% 17.77% 76.37%-2.38 -14.6 16
1951-11-04 Macva Sabac D 1-171.6 1640 1593 56.70% 19.17% 24.13%+0.62 -2.5 20
1951-11-04 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb D 1-171.6 1593 1640 24.13% 19.17% 56.70%-0.62 +2.5 17
1951-11-04 Borac Zagreb W 1-060.0 1380 1653 17.72% 18.76% 63.52%-1.37 +21.0 6
1951-11-04 @ Napredak L 0-160.0 1653 1380 63.52% 18.76% 17.72%+1.37 -21.0 18
1951-11-04 Partizan W 2-052.1 1887 1758 64.68% 18.93% 16.39%+1.14 +12.1 35
1951-11-04 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-252.1 1758 1887 16.39% 18.93% 64.68%-1.14 -12.1 24
1951-11-04 Sarajevo W 3-052.3 1568 1616 44.84% 19.28% 35.88%+0.03 +34.6 19
1951-11-04 @ Vojvodina L 0-352.3 1616 1568 35.88% 19.28% 44.84%-0.03 -34.6 20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1951-10-20 6.01% Sarajevo 1573 3 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1897 1
2 1951-04-07 10.39% Macva Sabac 1625 2 @ Red Star Belgrade 1845 1
3 1951-08-12 12.95% Macva Sabac 1634 3 @ Partizan 1810 0
4 1951-08-19 14.80% Napredak 1465 2 @ BSK Beograd 1615 1
5 1951-08-05 15.43% @ Spartak Subotica 1529 2 Partizan 1831 1
6 1951-09-09 17.38% Sarajevo 1617 2 @ Partizan 1734 1
7 1951-11-04 17.72% @ Napredak 1380 1 Borac Zagreb 1653 0
8 1951-04-01 18.92% BSK Beograd 1544 2 @ Napredak 1643 0
9 1951-09-16 19.26% @ BSK Beograd 1585 3 Hajduk Split 1841 0
10 1951-05-27 23.10% Spartak Subotica 1561 1 @ Vojvodina 1617 0
11 1951-03-11 24.34% Vojvodina 1550 3 @ BSK Beograd 1595 0
12 1951-04-22 24.45% @ Vojvodina 1582 3 Hajduk Split 1786 1
13 1951-06-17 24.68% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1607 2 @ Macva Sabac 1649 1
14 1951-04-29 25.08% BSK Beograd 1541 1 @ Spartak Subotica 1579 0
15 1951-04-15 27.11% Vojvodina 1564 1 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1585 0
16 1951-04-08 27.76% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1567 1 @ BSK Beograd 1583 0
17 1951-04-08 28.26% @ Sarajevo 1629 1 Partizan 1800 0
18 1951-06-10 29.03% Dinamo Zagreb 1838 2 @ Red Star Belgrade 1843 0
19 1951-08-12 30.05% BSK Beograd 1583 2 @ Vojvodina 1580 0
20 1951-10-07 31.46% BSK Beograd 1679 6 @ Macva Sabac 1664 0
21 1951-10-28 31.62% Red Star Belgrade 1872 2 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1856 1
22 1951-10-07 33.68% Vojvodina 1562 2 @ Spartak Subotica 1530 1
23 1951-09-09 35.23% @ Spartak Subotica 1539 2 Borac Zagreb 1656 0
24 1951-08-19 36.53% @ Borac Zagreb 1641 2 Partizan 1748 1
25 1951-09-09 37.35% Vojvodina 1544 4 @ Napredak 1486 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-10-07 86.32 BSK Beograd 6 1679 31.46% @ Macva Sabac 0 1664 49.27% 19.27%
2 1951-08-12 62.01 Macva Sabac 3 1634 12.95% @ Partizan 0 1810 68.33% 18.72%
3 1951-09-16 55.92 @ BSK Beograd 3 1585 19.26% Hajduk Split 0 1841 61.90% 18.84%
4 1951-06-10 53.82 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 5 1553 46.35% Spartak Subotica 0 1590 34.37% 19.28%
5 1951-03-11 51.21 Vojvodina 3 1550 24.34% @ BSK Beograd 0 1595 56.48% 19.18%
6 1951-04-01 49.76 Red Star Belgrade 6 1795 55.37% @ Vojvodina 0 1601 25.57% 19.07%
7 1951-09-23 49.35 @ Macva Sabac 5 1623 49.78% Sarajevo 0 1634 30.95% 19.26%
8 1951-09-16 44.25 @ Borac Zagreb 4 1627 45.80% Macva Sabac 0 1667 34.92% 19.28%
9 1951-06-17 42.45 @ Partizan 6 1788 48.32% Red Star Belgrade 1 1810 32.41% 19.27%
10 1951-10-20 41.40 Sarajevo 3 1573 6.01% @ Dinamo Zagreb 1 1897 76.18% 17.81%
11 1951-03-11 41.21 Hajduk Split 5 1762 40.69% @ Borac Zagreb 1 1681 40.04% 19.27%
12 1951-06-10 40.25 Macva Sabac 3 1609 37.58% @ Napredak 0 1549 43.14% 19.28%
13 1951-10-28 38.87 Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1601 39.37% @ Spartak Subotica 0 1528 41.35% 19.28%
14 1951-04-01 38.68 BSK Beograd 2 1544 18.92% @ Napredak 0 1643 62.05% 19.03%
15 1951-10-21 37.80 Partizan 3 1721 40.76% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1639 39.97% 19.27%
16 1951-09-30 35.31 @ BSK Beograd 5 1643 59.96% Spartak Subotica 0 1566 20.95% 19.10%
17 1951-04-08 34.77 @ Dinamo Zagreb 3 1767 44.65% Hajduk Split 0 1816 36.07% 19.28%
18 1951-11-04 34.63 @ Vojvodina 3 1568 44.84% Sarajevo 0 1616 35.88% 19.28%
19 1951-06-17 34.27 @ Borac Zagreb 8 1623 63.39% Napredak 1 1508 17.63% 18.98%
20 1951-09-09 34.09 Vojvodina 4 1544 37.35% @ Napredak 1 1486 43.37% 19.28%
21 1951-06-10 32.47 Dinamo Zagreb 2 1838 29.03% @ Red Star Belgrade 0 1843 51.73% 19.25%
22 1951-08-12 31.89 BSK Beograd 2 1583 30.05% @ Vojvodina 0 1580 50.70% 19.26%
23 1951-04-22 30.51 @ Vojvodina 3 1582 24.45% Hajduk Split 1 1786 56.51% 19.04%
24 1951-09-09 28.99 @ Spartak Subotica 2 1539 35.23% Borac Zagreb 0 1656 45.53% 19.24%
25 1951-03-11 27.88 @ Red Star Belgrade 6 1767 67.92% Spartak Subotica 0 1596 13.33% 18.75%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-11-03 79.5 @ BSK Beograd 2 1769 41.56% Dinamo Zagreb 2 1841 39.16% 19.28%
2 1951-08-05 78.7 @ Red Star Belgrade 2 1792 70.66% BSK Beograd 2 1580 10.81% 18.54%
3 1951-09-23 78.3 @ Partizan 2 1703 58.30% BSK Beograd 2 1641 22.56% 19.14%
4 1951-04-07 75.2 Macva Sabac 2 1625 10.39% @ Red Star Belgrade 1 1845 71.12% 18.49%
5 1951-10-21 74.9 @ Vojvodina 2 1577 51.02% Macva Sabac 2 1578 29.73% 19.25%
6 1951-04-22 74.8 @ Napredak 2 1584 53.15% Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1567 27.62% 19.23%
7 1951-10-20 74.4 Sarajevo 3 1573 6.01% @ Dinamo Zagreb 1 1897 76.18% 17.81%
8 1951-04-29 73.9 @ Partizan 1 1801 69.10% Vojvodina 1 1613 12.23% 18.66%
9 1951-08-19 73.9 @ Sarajevo 1 1614 24.05% Hajduk Split 1 1822 56.92% 19.02%
10 1951-05-27 73.1 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1558 23.40% Hajduk Split 1 1771 57.59% 19.00%
11 1951-08-05 73.0 @ Spartak Subotica 2 1529 15.43% Partizan 1 1831 65.95% 18.62%
12 1951-03-04 72.9 @ Napredak 1 1673 54.81% Sarajevo 1 1643 25.99% 19.21%
13 1951-04-29 72.4 @ Borac Zagreb 1 1631 48.15% Sarajevo 1 1654 32.57% 19.27%
14 1951-08-05 72.4 @ Borac Zagreb 1 1657 55.05% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1624 25.75% 19.20%
15 1951-09-09 72.4 Sarajevo 2 1617 17.38% @ Partizan 1 1734 63.65% 18.97%
16 1951-09-30 71.8 @ Sarajevo 1 1584 40.93% Borac Zagreb 1 1660 39.79% 19.28%
17 1951-06-03 71.7 @ Hajduk Split 3 1769 39.32% Red Star Belgrade 2 1855 41.41% 19.27%
18 1951-11-04 71.6 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1640 56.70% Macva Sabac 1 1593 24.13% 19.17%
19 1951-06-10 71.3 @ BSK Beograd 1 1580 43.13% Sarajevo 1 1640 37.59% 19.28%
20 1951-09-16 71.1 @ Sarajevo 1 1637 58.99% Spartak Subotica 1 1568 21.89% 19.12%
21 1951-04-15 70.2 @ Partizan 0 1782 48.58% Dinamo Zagreb 0 1802 32.15% 19.27%
22 1951-10-28 70.2 @ Partizan 0 1759 43.20% Hajduk Split 0 1818 37.52% 19.28%
23 1951-05-23 69.8 @ Dinamo Zagreb 0 1829 73.78% BSK Beograd 0 1559 8.03% 18.19%
24 1951-08-05 69.8 @ Macva Sabac 0 1631 27.22% Hajduk Split 0 1811 53.67% 19.11%
25 1951-10-28 69.4 @ Sarajevo 0 1614 29.94% BSK Beograd 0 1771 50.90% 19.17%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-10-28 38.1 @ Macva Sabac 3 1579 68.93% Napredak 0 1394 12.40% 18.68%
2 1951-10-07 41.7 @ Partizan 3 1713 75.13% Napredak 0 1414 6.88% 17.99%
3 1951-11-04 44.3 @ Hajduk Split 7 1819 76.37% Spartak Subotica 0 1489 5.85% 17.77%
4 1951-09-30 44.8 Hajduk Split 6 1790 69.53% @ Napredak 0 1440 12.12% 18.35%
5 1951-06-17 45.8 @ Borac Zagreb 8 1623 63.39% Napredak 1 1508 17.63% 18.98%
6 1951-04-22 46.7 @ Dinamo Zagreb 4 1803 70.42% Spartak Subotica 0 1595 11.02% 18.56%
7 1951-03-11 47.1 @ Red Star Belgrade 6 1767 67.92% Spartak Subotica 0 1596 13.33% 18.75%
8 1951-09-30 47.1 @ BSK Beograd 5 1643 59.96% Spartak Subotica 0 1566 20.95% 19.10%
9 1951-09-23 47.2 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 1649 69.79% Napredak 1 1450 11.60% 18.61%
10 1951-10-21 47.8 Spartak Subotica 1 1515 44.52% @ Napredak 0 1406 36.23% 19.25%
11 1951-04-21 48.5 @ Red Star Belgrade 3 1831 68.97% Borac Zagreb 0 1645 12.35% 18.67%
12 1951-06-03 48.7 @ Partizan 2 1804 72.45% Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1560 9.19% 18.36%
13 1951-06-20 48.8 @ Red Star Belgrade 4 1768 63.78% Sarajevo 0 1649 17.26% 18.96%
14 1951-06-10 49.5 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 5 1553 46.35% Spartak Subotica 0 1590 34.37% 19.28%
15 1951-09-30 50.2 @ Dinamo Zagreb 2 1881 70.42% Macva Sabac 0 1672 11.02% 18.56%
16 1951-08-12 50.7 Dinamo Zagreb 1 1879 73.11% @ Napredak 0 1469 8.93% 17.96%
17 1951-04-29 50.8 @ Hajduk Split 5 1755 68.10% Napredak 1 1582 13.17% 18.74%
18 1951-08-18 50.8 @ Red Star Belgrade 1 1803 73.06% Vojvodina 0 1548 8.65% 18.28%
19 1951-09-23 51.0 @ Macva Sabac 5 1623 49.78% Sarajevo 0 1634 30.95% 19.26%
20 1951-04-01 51.1 Red Star Belgrade 6 1795 55.37% @ Vojvodina 0 1601 25.57% 19.07%
21 1951-04-15 51.4 @ Hajduk Split 1 1782 70.93% BSK Beograd 0 1565 10.56% 18.51%
22 1951-09-16 51.5 @ Dinamo Zagreb 2 1864 66.35% Partizan 0 1714 14.81% 18.84%
23 1951-09-23 51.7 @ Hajduk Split 1 1785 70.33% Vojvodina 0 1578 11.10% 18.57%
24 1951-08-12 52.1 Red Star Belgrade 2 1788 60.23% @ Spartak Subotica 0 1550 20.86% 18.91%
25 1951-11-04 52.1 @ Red Star Belgrade 2 1887 64.68% Partizan 0 1758 16.39% 18.93%