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1952 Prva savezna liga Season

96 games

Final

Champion

BSK Beograd

11 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

—

—

Biggest Disappointment

—

—

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dinamo Zagreb 10 8 0 2 16 27 13 +14 11.47 +4.53
2 Lokomotiva Zagreb 10 7 0 3 14 20 9 +11 10.36 +3.64
3 Red Star Belgrade 10 7 0 3 14 20 16 +4 12.26 +1.74
4 Hajduk Split 10 6 0 4 12 23 11 +12 12.46 -0.46
5 Partizan 10 6 0 4 12 24 15 +9 10.48 +1.52
6 BSK Beograd 10 4 2 4 10 19 12 +7 10.73 -0.73
7 Vojvodina 10 5 0 5 10 21 15 +6 9.58 +0.42
8 Vardar 10 5 0 5 10 13 18 -5 7.59 +2.41
9 NK Zagreb 10 3 2 5 8 7 12 -5 9.91 -1.91
10 Sarajevo 10 3 0 7 6 8 21 -13 7.05 -1.05
11 Rabotnicki 10 2 1 7 5 9 30 -21 10.08 -5.08
12 Macva Sabac 10 1 1 8 3 10 29 -19 8.03 -5.03
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hajduk Split 6 4 1 1 9 12 4 +8 — —
2 Red Star Belgrade 6 3 2 1 8 11 6 +5 — —
3 Lokomotiva Zagreb 6 2 0 4 4 12 19 -7 — —
4 Dinamo Zagreb 6 0 3 3 3 8 14 -6 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 BSK Beograd 6 5 1 0 11 15 6 +9
2 Partizan 6 3 1 2 7 17 11 +6
3 Vardar 6 2 1 3 5 8 15 -7
4 Vojvodina 6 0 1 5 1 7 15 -8
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sarajevo 6 3 2 1 8 8 3 +5 — —
2 NK Zagreb 6 2 3 1 7 6 6 0 — —
3 Rabotnicki 6 2 1 3 5 10 14 -4 — —
4 Macva Sabac 6 1 2 3 4 7 8 -1 — —

Phase 2 standings reset from zero — Phase 1 record above is historical context only and did not carry forward.

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 BSK Beograd 6 May 4 – Jun 8 1 in 316
2 Dinamo Zagreb 5 Apr 6 – May 11 1 in 73
3 Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 Mar 2 – Mar 23 1 in 63
4 Vojvodina 3 Mar 23 – Apr 6 1 in 38
5 Hajduk Split 4 Jun 1 – Jun 22 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vojvodina 5 May 11 – Jun 8 1 in 65
2 Rabotnicki 5 Apr 27 – May 25 1 in 29
3 Dinamo Zagreb 2 Jun 8 – Jun 15 1 in 25
4 Macva Sabac 4 Mar 2 – Mar 23 1 in 17
5 Hajduk Split 2 May 4 – May 11 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 BSK Beograd 9 Apr 27 – Jun 22 1 in 117
2 Dinamo Zagreb 6 Apr 6 – May 18 1 in 41
3 Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 Mar 2 – Mar 23 1 in 16
4 Vojvodina 3 Mar 23 – Apr 6 1 in 12
5 Sarajevo 4 Jun 1 – Jun 22 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dinamo Zagreb 6 May 18 – Jun 22 1 in 65
2 Vojvodina 7 May 11 – Jun 22 1 in 58
3 Rabotnicki 7 Apr 6 – May 25 1 in 38
4 Hajduk Split 4 May 4 – May 24 1 in 19
5 Macva Sabac 6 Apr 6 – May 18 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Red Star Belgrade 1954 22 +4 6 5.1 +0.9
BSK Beograd 1919 21 +44 9 5.6 +3.4
Hajduk Split 1992 21 +63 8 5.0 +3.0
Partizan 1931 19 -2 5 6.5 -1.5
Dinamo Zagreb 1893 19 -64 2 5.7 -3.7
Lokomotiva Zagreb 1842 18 -3 4 4.2 -0.2
NK Zagreb 1803 15 -7 6 5.8 +0.2
Vardar 1733 15 +23 5 3.1 +1.9
Sarajevo 1738 14 +13 6 4.5 +1.5
Vojvodina 1739 11 -66 1 4.8 -3.8
Rabotnicki 1676 10 +8 5 4.5 +0.5
Macva Sabac 1677 7 -15 3 5.1 -2.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Group 1

Team DZ LZ MS PAR RAB VOJ
Dinamo Zagreb —
1-0-1
3.25
2-0-0
3.76
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
3.68
2-0-0
3.33
Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-0-1
2.49
 —
1-0-1
3.71
1-0-1
2.66
2-0-0
3.21
2-0-0
2.96
Macva Sabac
0-0-2
1.98
1-0-1
2.03
 —
0-0-2
2.38
0-1-1
2.38
0-0-2
2.44
Partizan
0-0-2
2.74
1-0-1
3.08
2-0-0
3.36
 —
2-0-0
2.94
1-0-1
3.12
Rabotnicki
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.52
1-1-0
3.35
0-0-2
2.80
 —
0-0-2
3.30
Vojvodina
0-0-2
2.41
0-0-2
2.78
2-0-0
3.30
1-0-1
2.62
2-0-0
2.44
 —

Group 2

Team BB HS NZ RSB SAR VAR
BSK Beograd —
1-0-1
2.44
0-2-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
3.62
1-0-1
3.71
Hajduk Split
1-0-1
3.29
 —
1-0-1
3.61
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
4.03
2-0-0
4.01
NK Zagreb
0-2-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.13
 —
0-0-2
2.52
1-0-1
3.55
1-0-1
3.52
Red Star Belgrade
1-0-1
3.29
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
3.22
 —
2-0-0
3.94
1-0-1
4.09
Sarajevo
1-0-1
2.12
1-0-1
1.71
1-0-1
2.19
0-0-2
1.80
 —
0-0-2
3.12
Vardar
1-0-1
2.03
0-0-2
1.73
1-0-1
2.22
1-0-1
1.65
2-0-0
2.62
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.29 +4.4
Allowed 0.57 -4.1
Differential 0.83 +4.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.21%9.38%4.17%5.21%1.56%2.60%28.12%
19.38%4.17%6.77%2.60%0.52%3.12%26.56%
24.17%6.77%2.08%4.17%1.56%1.04%19.79%
35.21%2.60%4.17%—0.52%0.52%13.02%
41.56%0.52%1.56%0.52%——4.17%
5+2.60%3.12%1.04%0.52%—1.04%8.33%
Total28.12%26.56%19.79%13.02%4.17%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.68 +0.00
SD 1.64 1.64 2.46
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 96

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%————25.00%
1—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
26.25%12.50%—6.25%——25.00%
36.25%—12.50%———18.75%
4——6.25%———6.25%
5+—12.50%————12.50%
Total25.00%43.75%25.00%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.12 1.12 +1.00
SD 1.82 0.89 1.83
CV 0.86 0.79 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%—12.50%——25.00%
16.25%6.25%————12.50%
2——6.25%—6.25%—12.50%
36.25%6.25%12.50%—6.25%—31.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
Total18.75%31.25%25.00%12.50%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.19 1.69 +0.50
SD 1.72 1.30 2.16
CV 0.79 0.77 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%6.25%———18.75%
16.25%6.25%—6.25%——18.75%
212.50%12.50%—6.25%——31.25%
36.25%—————6.25%
46.25%—6.25%———12.50%
5+12.50%—————12.50%
Total43.75%31.25%12.50%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.19 0.94 +1.25
SD 1.80 1.06 2.41
CV 0.82 1.13 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%6.25%——6.25%18.75%
112.50%—6.25%———18.75%
2—6.25%—6.25%6.25%6.25%25.00%
318.75%—————18.75%
46.25%—6.25%6.25%——18.75%
5+———————
Total37.50%12.50%18.75%12.50%6.25%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.75 +0.25
SD 1.41 1.81 2.52
CV 0.71 1.03 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%18.75%—12.50%——37.50%
16.25%6.25%6.25%——12.50%31.25%
2——6.25%12.50%——18.75%
3—6.25%———6.25%12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total12.50%31.25%12.50%25.00%—18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 2.31 -1.25
SD 1.06 1.82 1.73
CV 1.00 0.79 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%6.25%6.25%6.25%——43.75%
118.75%—12.50%6.25%——37.50%
2—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total43.75%12.50%31.25%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 1.12 -0.31
SD 0.91 1.15 1.25
CV 1.12 1.02 —
Max 3 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———12.50%——12.50%
125.00%—12.50%6.25%——43.75%
2—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
3———————
46.25%—————6.25%
5+6.25%6.25%—6.25%—6.25%25.00%
Total37.50%12.50%12.50%31.25%—6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.62 +0.94
SD 2.58 1.59 3.07
CV 1.01 0.98 —
Max 8 5 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%—12.50%6.25%6.25%31.25%
1—12.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%37.50%
2—6.25%———6.25%12.50%
36.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
4———————
5+———————
Total6.25%31.25%12.50%18.75%12.50%18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 2.75 -1.56
SD 1.11 2.08 2.76
CV 0.93 0.76 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—6.25%——6.25%18.75%
16.25%—6.25%———12.50%
218.75%6.25%6.25%—6.25%—37.50%
36.25%6.25%12.50%———25.00%
4———————
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total43.75%12.50%31.25%—6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.38 +0.56
SD 1.34 1.71 2.50
CV 0.69 1.24 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%43.75%
118.75%6.25%6.25%———31.25%
26.25%6.25%—6.25%——18.75%
3———————
4———————
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total31.25%31.25%12.50%12.50%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.50 -0.50
SD 1.32 1.55 2.28
CV 1.32 1.03 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%6.25%——6.25%25.00%
112.50%6.25%6.25%——18.75%43.75%
26.25%12.50%————18.75%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4———————
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total25.00%37.50%12.50%——25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 2.06 -0.75
SD 1.30 2.32 3.02
CV 0.99 1.13 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.75%12.50%—6.25%—37.50%
1——12.50%6.25%——18.75%
2—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
312.50%—————12.50%
4———————
5+—6.25%6.25%——6.25%18.75%
Total12.50%31.25%31.25%12.50%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.88 -0.12
SD 1.91 1.36 2.28
CV 1.09 0.73 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Hajduk Split 1992 9 12.46 -3.46 53.0% 7 8 11 12 14 16 19
Red Star Belgrade 1954 8 12.26 -4.26 85.0% 7 8 11 12 14 17 19
Partizan 1931 7 10.48 -3.48 73.0% 4 6 8 10 13 14 17
BSK Beograd 1919 11 10.73 +0.27 47.0% 5 7 9 11 12 15 17
Dinamo Zagreb 1893 3 11.47 -8.47 99.0% 4 7 10 12 13 15 17
Lokomotiva Zagreb 1842 4 10.36 -6.36 95.0% 3 6 8 11 12 14 16
NK Zagreb 1803 7 9.91 -2.91 32.0% 4 5 8 10 12 14 17
Vojvodina 1739 1 9.58 -8.58 61.0% 4 5 8 10 11 13 16
Sarajevo 1738 8 7.05 +0.95 44.0% 1 2 5 7 9 12 14
Vardar 1733 5 7.59 -2.59 83.0% 2 3 5 7 10 12 15
Macva Sabac 1677 4 8.03 -4.03 3.0% 1 4 6 8 10 12 15
Rabotnicki 1676 5 10.08 -5.08 8.0% 2 4 8 10 12 15 17

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 33.5% * Slight Edge: 33.5% to 40% * Clear Edge: 40% to 45.5% * Strong Edge: 45.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+27.08%
No Edge
57.29%12.50%30.21%
Elo Value
Home Edge
143 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
096.50400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.58 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.67+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 7 * Wide Open: 7 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.09 * Comfortable: 0.09 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.7
Wide Open
145711
Champion Preseason Odds
15%
BSK Beograd, 6th of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.33/gm
Runaway
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 1.65 * Some Luck: 1.65 to 2.47 * Lucky: 2.47 to 3.29 * Wild Swing: 3.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.32 * Close: 2.32 to 3.48 * Off: 3.48 to 4.65 * Way Off: 4.65 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.18 points
Lucky
02.065
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.83
Close
02.906
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
100.00%
Dinamo Zagreb
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
17.20%
Macva Sabac
050
Season Outliers
Expected
8 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.09 * Even: 0.09 to 0.11 * Top-Heavy: 0.11 to 0.16 * Lopsided: 0.16 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.15 * Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.35 * Strong Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Wide Separation: 1.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61% * Slight Edge: 61% to 63.5% * Clear Edge: 63.5% to 67% * Wide Edge: 67% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Strong Edge: 86.5% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 20.5% * Very Frequent: 20.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Lopsided
00.090.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 103.55
1.23
Moderate Separation
0.91.151.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
77%
Wide Edge
50%61%67%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Clear Edge
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Few
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
29%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.54 * Slight Separation: 0.54 to 0.62 * Notable Separation: 0.62 to 0.69 * Lopsided: 0.69 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 15.5% * Upset-Prone: 15.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 18.5% * Very Shaky: 18.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
6.71
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.32
Weak Carryover
00.470.61
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
Very Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.81
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.01
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.093
Well Within Noise
00.1520.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456
Partizan23.00%15.00%15.00%20.00%21.00%6.00%
Rabotnicki17.00%14.00%14.00%16.00%19.00%20.00%
Macva Sabac5.00%3.00%9.00%18.00%29.00%36.00%
Lokomotiva Zagreb13.00%29.00%23.00%11.00%10.00%14.00%
Dinamo Zagreb34.00%25.00%15.00%14.00%6.00%6.00%
Vojvodina8.00%14.00%24.00%21.00%15.00%18.00%
Team123456
BSK Beograd15.00%23.00%19.00%27.00%13.00%3.00%
Hajduk Split38.00%25.00%23.00%9.00%4.00%1.00%
Red Star Belgrade34.00%24.00%20.00%13.00%9.00%—
Sarajevo1.00%5.00%7.00%13.00%26.00%48.00%
NK Zagreb11.00%16.00%20.00%23.00%17.00%13.00%
Vardar1.00%7.00%11.00%15.00%31.00%35.00%
Team1234
BSK Beograd————
Hajduk Split20.57%24.66%27.50%27.27%
Red Star Belgrade24.92%26.14%25.87%23.07%
Sarajevo————
Partizan————
NK Zagreb————
Rabotnicki————
Vardar————
Macva Sabac————
Lokomotiva Zagreb15.24%22.11%26.75%35.90%
Vojvodina————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Qualified for relegation playoff
Dinamo Zagreb 100% —
Lokomotiva Zagreb 100% —
Macva Sabac 35.00% 65.00%
Partizan 73.00% 27.00%
Rabotnicki 61.00% 39.00%
Vojvodina 67.00% 33.00%
Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for Championship Round
BSK Beograd 16.00% 84.00%
Hajduk Split — 100%
NK Zagreb 30.00% 70.00%
Red Star Belgrade — 100%
Sarajevo 74.00% 26.00%
Vardar 66.00% 34.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Qualified for Championship Round Qualified for relegation playoff
BSK Beograd — 100% —
Dynamo Zagreb — 100% —
Hajduk Split — 100% —
Lokomotiva Zagreb — 100% —
Macva Sabac — — 100%
NK Zagreb 100% — —
Partizan — 100% —
Rabotnicki — — 100%
Red Star Belgrade — 100% —
Sarajevo 100% — —
Vardar — 100% —
Vojvodina — 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1952-03-02 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-170.2 1889 1791 71.31% 13.06% 15.64%+1.36 -14.7 0
1952-03-02 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 1-070.2 1791 1889 15.64% 13.06% 71.31%-1.36 +14.7 2
1952-03-02 Partizan L 0-164.8 1771 1844 53.29% 13.26% 33.45%+0.17 -11.0 0
1952-03-02 @ Macva Sabac W 1-064.8 1844 1771 33.45% 13.26% 53.29%-0.17 +11.0 2
1952-03-02 Rabotnicki W 5-262.4 1774 1856 52.15% 13.26% 34.59%+0.10 +15.0 2
1952-03-02 @ Vojvodina L 2-562.4 1856 1774 34.59% 13.26% 52.15%-0.10 -15.0 0
1952-03-02 Red Star Belgrade W 6-050.5 1886 1916 58.62% 13.23% 28.14%+0.46 +32.7 2
1952-03-02 @ Hajduk Split L 0-650.5 1916 1886 28.14% 13.23% 58.62%-0.46 -32.7 0
1952-03-02 NK Zagreb W 1-060.1 1751 1856 49.06% 13.26% 37.68%-0.06 +8.1 2
1952-03-02 @ Sarajevo L 0-160.1 1856 1751 37.68% 13.26% 49.06%+0.06 -8.1 0
1952-03-02 BSK Beograd W 1-061.9 1708 1856 42.86% 13.24% 43.90%-0.36 +9.2 2
1952-03-02 @ Vardar L 0-161.9 1856 1708 43.90% 13.24% 42.86%+0.36 -9.2 0
1952-03-09 Vojvodina W 3-262.9 1874 1789 70.25% 13.08% 16.67%+1.27 +3.4 2
1952-03-09 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 2-362.9 1789 1874 16.67% 13.08% 70.25%-1.27 -3.4 2
1952-03-09 Partizan W 3-053.2 1805 1855 56.22% 13.25% 30.54%+0.33 +18.4 4
1952-03-09 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-353.2 1855 1805 30.54% 13.25% 56.22%-0.33 -18.4 2
1952-03-09 Macva Sabac W 2-158.2 1840 1760 69.83% 13.09% 17.08%+1.24 +3.7 2
1952-03-09 @ Rabotnicki L 1-258.2 1760 1840 17.08% 13.09% 69.83%-1.24 -3.7 0
1952-03-09 Vardar W 2-155.8 1919 1717 77.91% 12.79% 9.30%+2.08 +2.1 4
1952-03-09 @ Hajduk Split L 1-255.8 1717 1919 9.30% 12.79% 77.91%-2.08 -2.1 2
1952-03-09 Sarajevo W 3-048.8 1847 1759 70.47% 13.08% 16.45%+1.29 +10.4 2
1952-03-09 @ BSK Beograd L 0-348.8 1759 1847 16.45% 13.08% 70.47%-1.29 -10.4 2
1952-03-09 NK Zagreb W 2-052.7 1883 1847 65.81% 13.16% 21.02%+0.93 +9.0 2
1952-03-09 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-252.7 1847 1883 21.02% 13.16% 65.81%-0.93 -9.0 0
1952-03-16 Dinamo Zagreb L 2-371.9 1757 1878 46.73% 13.26% 40.02%-0.17 -8.7 0
1952-03-16 @ Macva Sabac W 3-271.9 1878 1757 40.02% 13.26% 46.73%+0.17 +8.7 4
1952-03-16 Rabotnicki W 1-056.5 1837 1844 61.25% 13.22% 25.53%+0.62 +5.7 4
1952-03-16 @ Partizan L 0-156.5 1844 1837 25.53% 13.22% 61.25%-0.62 -5.7 2
1952-03-16 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-166.1 1786 1824 57.68% 13.24% 29.08%+0.41 -11.9 2
1952-03-16 @ Vojvodina W 1-066.1 1824 1786 29.08% 13.24% 57.68%-0.41 +11.9 6
1952-03-16 BSK Beograd D 0-073.0 1838 1858 59.91% 13.23% 26.86%+0.54 -1.8 1
1952-03-16 @ NK Zagreb D 0-073.0 1858 1838 26.86% 13.23% 59.91%-0.54 +1.8 3
1952-03-16 Hajduk Split W 2-060.5 1749 1921 39.52% 13.23% 47.25%-0.53 +18.6 4
1952-03-16 @ Sarajevo L 0-260.5 1921 1749 47.25% 13.23% 39.52%+0.53 -18.6 4
1952-03-16 Red Star Belgrade W 2-167.5 1715 1892 38.78% 13.22% 47.99%-0.56 +9.4 4
1952-03-16 @ Vardar L 1-267.5 1892 1715 47.99% 13.22% 38.78%+0.56 -9.4 2
1952-03-23 Partizan W 3-157.2 1886 1842 66.58% 13.15% 20.27%+0.98 +7.5 6
1952-03-23 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-357.2 1842 1886 20.27% 13.15% 66.58%-0.98 -7.5 4
1952-03-23 Rabotnicki W 3-051.5 1835 1838 61.74% 13.21% 25.05%+0.65 +15.4 8
1952-03-23 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-351.5 1838 1835 25.05% 13.21% 61.74%-0.65 -15.4 2
1952-03-23 Macva Sabac W 3-050.4 1774 1748 64.80% 13.18% 22.03%+0.86 +13.7 4
1952-03-23 @ Vojvodina L 0-350.4 1748 1774 22.03% 13.18% 64.80%-0.86 -13.7 0
1952-03-23 NK Zagreb W 2-158.7 1902 1837 68.56% 13.12% 18.32%+1.13 +4.0 6
1952-03-23 @ Hajduk Split L 1-258.7 1837 1902 18.32% 13.12% 68.56%-1.13 -4.0 1
1952-03-23 BSK Beograd W 3-264.7 1883 1859 64.57% 13.18% 22.25%+0.84 +4.5 4
1952-03-23 @ Red Star Belgrade L 2-364.7 1859 1883 22.25% 13.18% 64.57%-0.84 -4.5 3
1952-03-23 Sarajevo W 5-050.5 1725 1767 57.12% 13.24% 29.64%+0.38 +28.8 6
1952-03-23 @ Vardar L 0-550.5 1767 1725 29.64% 13.24% 57.12%-0.38 -28.8 4
1952-03-30 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 1-060.5 1734 1851 47.35% 13.26% 39.39%-0.14 +8.4 2
1952-03-30 @ Macva Sabac L 0-160.5 1851 1734 39.39% 13.26% 47.35%+0.14 -8.4 8
1952-03-30 Vojvodina L 1-273.2 1835 1787 66.93% 13.15% 19.92%+1.01 -13.0 4
1952-03-30 @ Partizan W 2-173.2 1787 1835 19.92% 13.15% 66.93%-1.01 +13.0 6
1952-03-30 Dinamo Zagreb W 3-054.0 1823 1894 53.55% 13.25% 33.19%+0.18 +19.8 4
1952-03-30 @ Rabotnicki L 0-354.0 1894 1823 33.19% 13.25% 53.55%-0.18 -19.8 6
1952-03-30 Vardar W 1-053.8 1833 1754 69.73% 13.09% 17.17%+1.23 +4.0 3
1952-03-30 @ NK Zagreb L 0-153.8 1754 1833 17.17% 13.09% 69.73%-1.23 -4.0 6
1952-03-30 Hajduk Split L 0-165.7 1855 1906 56.08% 13.25% 30.68%+0.32 -11.6 3
1952-03-30 @ BSK Beograd W 1-065.7 1906 1855 30.68% 13.25% 56.08%-0.32 +11.6 8
1952-03-30 Red Star Belgrade L 1-266.0 1739 1888 42.77% 13.24% 43.99%-0.37 -8.5 4
1952-03-30 @ Sarajevo W 2-166.0 1888 1739 43.99% 13.24% 42.77%+0.37 +8.5 6
1952-04-03 Hajduk Split W 3-159.4 1896 1918 59.64% 13.23% 27.13%+0.52 +9.9 8
1952-04-03 @ Red Star Belgrade L 1-359.4 1918 1896 27.13% 13.23% 59.64%-0.52 -9.9 8
1952-04-06 Dinamo Zagreb L 2-569.6 1842 1874 58.44% 13.24% 28.32%+0.45 -24.1 8
1952-04-06 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 5-269.6 1874 1842 28.32% 13.24% 58.44%-0.45 +24.1 8
1952-04-06 Macva Sabac W 6-358.7 1822 1743 69.76% 13.09% 17.15%+1.23 +7.3 6
1952-04-06 @ Partizan L 3-658.7 1743 1822 17.15% 13.09% 69.76%-1.23 -7.3 2
1952-04-06 Vojvodina L 0-363.9 1843 1800 66.46% 13.15% 20.39%+0.97 -37.4 4
1952-04-06 @ Rabotnicki W 3-063.9 1800 1843 20.39% 13.15% 66.46%-0.97 +37.4 8
1952-04-06 Sarajevo W 3-262.2 1837 1730 71.93% 13.04% 15.03%+1.42 +3.1 5
1952-04-06 @ NK Zagreb L 2-362.2 1730 1837 15.03% 13.04% 71.93%-1.42 -3.1 4
1952-04-06 Vardar W 6-149.9 1843 1750 70.94% 13.07% 16.00%+1.33 +13.5 5
1952-04-06 @ BSK Beograd L 1-649.9 1750 1843 16.00% 13.07% 70.94%-1.33 -13.5 6
1952-04-20 Rabotnicki D 1-176.3 1735 1806 53.63% 13.25% 33.11%+0.18 -1.0 3
1952-04-20 @ Macva Sabac D 1-176.3 1806 1735 33.11% 13.25% 53.63%-0.18 +1.0 5
1952-04-20 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-160.2 1829 1818 63.25% 13.20% 23.55%+0.75 +5.0 8
1952-04-20 @ Partizan L 1-260.2 1818 1829 23.55% 13.20% 63.25%-0.75 -5.0 8
1952-04-20 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-165.4 1838 1898 54.88% 13.25% 31.86%+0.25 -11.3 8
1952-04-20 @ Vojvodina W 1-065.4 1898 1838 31.86% 13.25% 54.88%-0.25 +11.3 10
1952-04-20 Red Star Belgrade L 0-360.3 1840 1906 54.16% 13.25% 32.59%+0.21 -30.6 5
1952-04-20 @ NK Zagreb W 3-060.3 1906 1840 32.59% 13.25% 54.16%-0.21 +30.6 10
1952-04-20 BSK Beograd W 2-165.5 1727 1857 45.49% 13.25% 41.26%-0.23 +8.3 6
1952-04-20 @ Sarajevo L 1-265.5 1857 1727 41.26% 13.25% 45.49%+0.23 -8.3 5
1952-04-20 Hajduk Split L 0-553.8 1736 1908 39.56% 13.23% 47.22%-0.53 -37.2 6
1952-04-20 @ Vardar W 5-053.8 1908 1736 47.22% 13.23% 39.56%+0.53 +37.2 10
1952-04-27 Macva Sabac W 5-149.7 1910 1734 76.49% 12.87% 10.64%+1.90 +7.5 12
1952-04-27 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-549.7 1734 1910 10.64% 12.87% 76.49%-1.90 -7.5 3
1952-04-27 Vojvodina W 2-161.0 1813 1826 60.63% 13.22% 26.15%+0.58 +5.5 10
1952-04-27 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 1-261.0 1826 1813 26.15% 13.22% 60.63%-0.58 -5.5 8
1952-04-27 Partizan L 0-860.4 1807 1834 58.91% 13.23% 27.86%+0.48 -83.5 5
1952-04-27 @ Rabotnicki W 8-060.4 1834 1807 27.86% 13.23% 58.91%-0.48 +83.5 10
1952-04-27 Sarajevo W 4-045.1 1945 1735 78.34% 12.77% 8.90%+2.14 +7.5 12
1952-04-27 @ Hajduk Split L 0-445.1 1735 1945 8.90% 12.77% 78.34%-2.14 -7.5 6
1952-04-27 NK Zagreb D 0-073.0 1849 1809 66.16% 13.16% 20.68%+0.95 -2.6 6
1952-04-27 @ BSK Beograd D 0-073.0 1809 1849 20.68% 13.16% 66.16%-0.95 +2.6 6
1952-04-27 Vardar W 2-048.4 1937 1699 79.64% 12.68% 7.68%+2.34 +3.4 12
1952-04-27 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-248.4 1699 1937 7.68% 12.68% 79.64%-2.34 -3.4 6
1952-05-04 Vojvodina L 1-561.6 1727 1821 50.47% 13.26% 36.27%+0.02 -31.2 3
1952-05-04 @ Macva Sabac W 5-161.6 1821 1727 36.27% 13.26% 50.47%-0.02 +31.2 10
1952-05-04 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-362.8 1918 1917 62.16% 13.21% 24.64%+0.68 -35.0 10
1952-05-04 @ Partizan W 3-062.8 1917 1918 24.64% 13.21% 62.16%-0.68 +35.0 14
1952-05-04 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-457.4 1723 1819 50.23% 13.26% 36.51%+0.00 -37.3 5
1952-05-04 @ Rabotnicki W 4-057.4 1819 1723 36.51% 13.26% 50.23%+0.00 +37.3 12
1952-05-04 Hajduk Split W 1-061.8 1812 1953 43.93% 13.25% 42.82%-0.31 +9.1 8
1952-05-04 @ NK Zagreb L 0-161.8 1953 1812 42.82% 13.25% 43.93%+0.31 -9.1 12
1952-05-04 Red Star Belgrade W 4-266.3 1846 1940 50.49% 13.26% 36.25%+0.02 +11.4 8
1952-05-04 @ BSK Beograd L 2-466.3 1940 1846 36.25% 13.26% 50.49%-0.02 -11.4 12
1952-05-04 Vardar L 0-167.8 1728 1695 65.44% 13.17% 21.39%+0.90 -13.4 6
1952-05-04 @ Sarajevo W 1-067.8 1695 1728 21.39% 13.17% 65.44%-0.90 +13.5 8
1952-05-11 Rabotnicki W 4-150.5 1952 1686 80.82% 12.58% 6.60%+2.54 +3.6 16
1952-05-11 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-450.5 1686 1952 6.60% 12.58% 80.82%-2.54 -3.6 5
1952-05-11 Macva Sabac W 3-047.2 1856 1696 75.63% 12.91% 11.46%+1.80 +7.4 14
1952-05-11 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 0-347.2 1696 1856 11.46% 12.91% 75.63%-1.80 -7.4 3
1952-05-11 Partizan L 0-460.2 1852 1883 58.57% 13.24% 28.20%+0.46 -43.1 10
1952-05-11 @ Vojvodina W 4-060.2 1883 1852 28.20% 13.24% 58.57%-0.46 +43.1 12
1952-05-11 BSK Beograd L 2-379.1 1943 1857 70.31% 13.08% 16.61%+1.28 -12.9 12
1952-05-11 @ Hajduk Split W 3-279.1 1857 1943 16.61% 13.08% 70.31%-1.28 +13.0 10
1952-05-11 Sarajevo W 2-048.8 1929 1714 78.56% 12.75% 8.69%+2.17 +3.9 14
1952-05-11 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-248.8 1714 1929 8.69% 12.75% 78.56%-2.17 -3.9 6
1952-05-11 NK Zagreb W 2-164.6 1709 1821 48.03% 13.26% 38.71%-0.11 +7.8 10
1952-05-11 @ Vardar L 1-264.6 1821 1709 38.71% 13.26% 48.03%+0.11 -7.8 8

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1952-05-18 Dinamo Zagreb D 1-176.7 1931 1956 59.22% 13.23% 27.55%+0.50 -1.6 1
1952-05-18 @ Hajduk Split D 1-176.7 1956 1931 27.55% 13.23% 59.22%-0.50 +1.6 1
1952-05-18 Macva Sabac D 0-072.7 1813 1688 73.26% 13.00% 13.74%+1.55 -3.4 1
1952-05-18 @ NK Zagreb D 0-072.7 1688 1813 13.74% 13.00% 73.26%-1.55 +3.4 1
1952-05-18 Vojvodina W 2-158.8 1870 1809 68.20% 13.13% 18.68%+1.10 +4.0 2
1952-05-18 @ BSK Beograd L 1-258.8 1809 1870 18.68% 13.13% 68.20%-1.10 -4.0 0
1952-05-18 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 5-047.4 1932 1864 68.86% 13.11% 18.03%+1.16 +18.3 2
1952-05-18 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-547.4 1864 1932 18.03% 13.11% 68.86%-1.16 -18.3 0
1952-05-18 Rabotnicki W 5-152.3 1710 1682 65.04% 13.18% 21.79%+0.87 +14.7 2
1952-05-18 @ Sarajevo L 1-552.3 1682 1710 21.79% 13.18% 65.04%-0.87 -14.7 0
1952-05-18 Partizan L 0-159.1 1717 1926 34.44% 13.19% 52.37%-0.79 -7.5 0
1952-05-18 @ Vardar W 1-059.1 1926 1717 52.37% 13.19% 34.44%+0.79 +7.5 2
1952-05-24 Hajduk Split W 1-055.7 1951 1929 64.38% 13.18% 22.43%+0.83 +5.1 4
1952-05-24 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-155.7 1929 1951 22.43% 13.18% 64.38%-0.83 -5.1 1
1952-05-25 Dinamo Zagreb W 4-373.0 1845 1957 48.02% 13.26% 38.72%-0.11 +7.2 2
1952-05-25 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb L 3-473.0 1957 1845 38.72% 13.26% 48.02%+0.11 -7.2 1
1952-05-25 Rabotnicki W 3-156.6 1692 1667 64.64% 13.18% 22.18%+0.84 +8.2 3
1952-05-25 @ Macva Sabac L 1-356.6 1667 1692 22.18% 13.18% 64.64%-0.84 -8.2 0
1952-05-25 Sarajevo W 1-053.6 1809 1725 70.17% 13.08% 16.74%+1.26 +3.9 3
1952-05-25 @ NK Zagreb L 0-153.6 1725 1809 16.74% 13.08% 70.17%-1.26 -3.9 2
1952-05-25 Vardar W 5-149.8 1874 1709 75.91% 12.90% 11.20%+1.83 +7.8 4
1952-05-25 @ BSK Beograd L 1-549.8 1709 1874 11.20% 12.90% 75.91%-1.83 -7.9 0
1952-05-25 Partizan L 0-162.6 1805 1933 45.70% 13.25% 41.05%-0.22 -9.6 0
1952-05-25 @ Vojvodina W 1-062.6 1933 1805 41.05% 13.25% 45.70%+0.22 +9.6 4
1952-06-01 Red Star Belgrade D 0-073.1 1950 1956 61.43% 13.21% 25.35%+0.63 -2.0 2
1952-06-01 @ Dinamo Zagreb D 0-073.1 1956 1950 25.35% 13.21% 61.43%-0.63 +2.0 5
1952-06-01 Lokomotiva Zagreb W 2-051.7 1924 1853 69.07% 13.11% 17.82%+1.17 +7.7 3
1952-06-01 @ Hajduk Split L 0-251.7 1853 1924 17.82% 13.11% 69.07%-1.17 -7.7 2
1952-06-01 BSK Beograd L 1-273.7 1943 1882 68.13% 13.13% 18.75%+1.10 -13.2 4
1952-06-01 @ Partizan W 2-173.7 1882 1943 18.75% 13.13% 68.13%-1.10 +13.2 6
1952-06-01 NK Zagreb W 3-164.1 1659 1813 42.03% 13.24% 44.73%-0.40 +15.4 2
1952-06-01 @ Rabotnicki L 1-364.1 1813 1659 44.73% 13.24% 42.03%+0.40 -15.3 3
1952-06-01 Macva Sabac W 1-054.9 1721 1700 64.34% 13.18% 22.47%+0.82 +5.1 4
1952-06-01 @ Sarajevo L 0-154.9 1700 1721 22.47% 13.18% 64.34%-0.82 -5.1 3
1952-06-01 Vojvodina W 3-161.7 1701 1795 50.48% 13.26% 36.26%+0.02 +12.8 2
1952-06-01 @ Vardar L 1-361.7 1795 1701 36.26% 13.26% 50.48%-0.02 -12.8 0
1952-06-08 Hajduk Split L 0-363.3 1948 1932 63.83% 13.19% 22.98%+0.79 -35.9 2
1952-06-08 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 3-063.3 1932 1948 22.98% 13.19% 63.83%-0.79 +35.9 5
1952-06-08 Red Star Belgrade L 2-372.4 1845 1958 47.88% 13.26% 38.87%-0.12 -8.9 2
1952-06-08 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 3-272.4 1958 1845 38.87% 13.26% 47.88%+0.12 +8.9 7
1952-06-08 NK Zagreb D 2-281.0 1695 1798 49.23% 13.26% 37.52%-0.05 -0.4 4
1952-06-08 @ Macva Sabac D 2-281.0 1798 1695 37.52% 13.26% 49.23%+0.05 +0.4 4
1952-06-08 Vardar W 7-146.8 1930 1714 78.62% 12.75% 8.63%+2.18 +8.8 6
1952-06-08 @ Partizan L 1-746.8 1714 1930 8.63% 12.75% 78.62%-2.18 -8.8 2
1952-06-08 Sarajevo D 1-175.7 1674 1726 56.00% 13.25% 30.76%+0.31 -1.2 3
1952-06-08 @ Rabotnicki D 1-175.7 1726 1674 30.76% 13.25% 56.00%-0.31 +1.2 5
1952-06-08 BSK Beograd L 0-260.7 1783 1896 47.88% 13.26% 38.86%-0.11 -18.8 0
1952-06-08 @ Vojvodina W 2-060.7 1896 1783 38.86% 13.26% 47.88%+0.11 +18.8 8
1952-06-15 Lokomotiva Zagreb L 2-476.2 1912 1836 69.48% 13.10% 17.42%+1.21 -20.9 2
1952-06-15 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 4-276.2 1836 1912 17.42% 13.10% 69.48%-1.21 +20.9 4
1952-06-15 Red Star Belgrade W 2-053.8 1968 1967 62.16% 13.21% 24.63%+0.68 +10.4 7
1952-06-15 @ Hajduk Split L 0-253.8 1967 1968 24.63% 13.21% 62.16%-0.68 -10.4 7
1952-06-15 Vojvodina D 5-589.2 1939 1764 76.47% 12.87% 10.66%+1.90 -1.7 7
1952-06-15 @ Partizan D 5-589.2 1764 1939 10.66% 12.87% 76.47%-1.90 +1.7 1
1952-06-15 Macva Sabac W 3-265.0 1673 1694 59.70% 13.23% 27.07%+0.53 +5.4 5
1952-06-15 @ Rabotnicki L 2-365.0 1694 1673 27.07% 13.23% 59.70%-0.53 -5.4 4
1952-06-15 NK Zagreb D 0-072.7 1727 1798 53.56% 13.25% 33.19%+0.18 -1.1 6
1952-06-15 @ Sarajevo D 0-072.7 1798 1727 33.19% 13.25% 53.56%-0.18 +1.1 5
1952-06-15 BSK Beograd D 1-176.5 1705 1914 34.47% 13.19% 52.34%-0.79 +0.9 3
1952-06-15 @ Vardar D 1-176.5 1914 1705 52.34% 13.19% 34.47%+0.79 -0.9 9
1952-06-22 Hajduk Split L 2-469.4 1857 1978 46.73% 13.26% 40.02%-0.17 -14.3 4
1952-06-22 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb W 4-269.4 1978 1857 40.02% 13.26% 46.73%+0.17 +14.3 9
1952-06-22 Sarajevo L 0-165.4 1689 1726 57.75% 13.24% 29.01%+0.41 -11.9 4
1952-06-22 @ Macva Sabac W 1-065.4 1726 1689 29.01% 13.24% 57.75%-0.41 +11.9 8
1952-06-22 Rabotnicki W 2-156.9 1799 1679 72.98% 13.01% 14.01%+1.52 +3.1 7
1952-06-22 @ NK Zagreb L 1-256.9 1679 1799 14.01% 13.01% 72.98%-1.52 -3.1 5
1952-06-22 Partizan W 3-266.2 1913 1937 59.42% 13.23% 27.35%+0.51 +5.4 11
1952-06-22 @ BSK Beograd L 2-366.2 1937 1913 27.35% 13.23% 59.42%-0.51 -5.4 7
1952-06-22 Dinamo Zagreb D 2-281.5 1956 1891 68.53% 13.12% 18.35%+1.13 -1.9 8
1952-06-22 @ Red Star Belgrade D 2-281.5 1891 1956 18.35% 13.12% 68.53%-1.13 +1.9 3
1952-06-22 Vardar L 0-266.3 1765 1706 68.00% 13.13% 18.87%+1.09 -26.4 1
1952-06-22 @ Vojvodina W 2-066.3 1706 1765 18.87% 13.13% 68.00%-1.09 +26.4 5

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1952-03-02 15.64% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1791 1 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1889 0
2 1952-05-11 16.61% BSK Beograd 1857 3 @ Hajduk Split 1943 2
3 1952-06-15 17.42% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1836 4 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1912 2
4 1952-06-01 18.75% BSK Beograd 1882 2 @ Partizan 1943 1
5 1952-06-22 18.87% Vardar 1706 2 @ Vojvodina 1765 0
6 1952-03-30 19.92% Vojvodina 1787 2 @ Partizan 1835 1
7 1952-04-06 20.39% Vojvodina 1800 3 @ Rabotnicki 1843 0
8 1952-05-04 21.39% Vardar 1695 1 @ Sarajevo 1728 0
9 1952-06-08 22.98% Hajduk Split 1932 3 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1948 0
10 1952-05-04 24.64% Dinamo Zagreb 1917 3 @ Partizan 1918 0
11 1952-04-27 27.86% Partizan 1834 8 @ Rabotnicki 1807 0
12 1952-05-11 28.20% Partizan 1883 4 @ Vojvodina 1852 0
13 1952-04-06 28.32% Dinamo Zagreb 1874 5 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1842 2
14 1952-06-22 29.01% Sarajevo 1726 1 @ Macva Sabac 1689 0
15 1952-03-16 29.08% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1824 1 @ Vojvodina 1786 0
16 1952-03-30 30.68% Hajduk Split 1906 1 @ BSK Beograd 1855 0
17 1952-04-20 31.86% Dinamo Zagreb 1898 1 @ Vojvodina 1838 0
18 1952-04-20 32.59% Red Star Belgrade 1906 3 @ NK Zagreb 1840 0
19 1952-03-02 33.45% Partizan 1844 1 @ Macva Sabac 1771 0
20 1952-05-04 36.27% Vojvodina 1821 5 @ Macva Sabac 1727 1
21 1952-05-04 36.51% Lokomotiva Zagreb 1819 4 @ Rabotnicki 1723 0
22 1952-03-16 38.78% @ Vardar 1715 2 Red Star Belgrade 1892 1
23 1952-06-08 38.86% BSK Beograd 1896 2 @ Vojvodina 1783 0
24 1952-06-08 38.87% Red Star Belgrade 1958 3 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 1845 2
25 1952-03-16 39.52% @ Sarajevo 1749 2 Hajduk Split 1921 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1952-04-27 83.49 Partizan 8 1834 27.86% @ Rabotnicki 0 1807 58.91% 13.23%
2 1952-05-11 43.13 Partizan 4 1883 28.20% @ Vojvodina 0 1852 58.57% 13.24%
3 1952-04-06 37.43 Vojvodina 3 1800 20.39% @ Rabotnicki 0 1843 66.46% 13.15%
4 1952-05-04 37.34 Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 1819 36.51% @ Rabotnicki 0 1723 50.23% 13.26%
5 1952-04-20 37.25 Hajduk Split 5 1908 47.22% @ Vardar 0 1736 39.56% 13.23%
6 1952-06-08 35.93 Hajduk Split 3 1932 22.98% @ Dinamo Zagreb 0 1948 63.83% 13.19%
7 1952-05-04 35.00 Dinamo Zagreb 3 1917 24.64% @ Partizan 0 1918 62.16% 13.21%
8 1952-03-02 32.69 @ Hajduk Split 6 1886 58.62% Red Star Belgrade 0 1916 28.14% 13.23%
9 1952-05-04 31.24 Vojvodina 5 1821 36.27% @ Macva Sabac 1 1727 50.47% 13.26%
10 1952-04-20 30.65 Red Star Belgrade 3 1906 32.59% @ NK Zagreb 0 1840 54.16% 13.25%
11 1952-03-23 28.84 @ Vardar 5 1725 57.12% Sarajevo 0 1767 29.64% 13.24%
12 1952-06-22 26.37 Vardar 2 1706 18.87% @ Vojvodina 0 1765 68.00% 13.13%
13 1952-04-06 24.06 Dinamo Zagreb 5 1874 28.32% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1842 58.44% 13.24%
14 1952-06-15 20.89 Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 1836 17.42% @ Dinamo Zagreb 2 1912 69.48% 13.10%
15 1952-03-30 19.82 @ Rabotnicki 3 1823 53.55% Dinamo Zagreb 0 1894 33.19% 13.25%
16 1952-06-08 18.84 BSK Beograd 2 1896 38.86% @ Vojvodina 0 1783 47.88% 13.26%
17 1952-03-16 18.61 @ Sarajevo 2 1749 39.52% Hajduk Split 0 1921 47.25% 13.23%
18 1952-03-09 18.39 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1805 56.22% Partizan 0 1855 30.54% 13.25%
19 1952-05-18 18.27 @ Red Star Belgrade 5 1932 68.86% Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1864 18.03% 13.11%
20 1952-03-23 15.38 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1835 61.74% Rabotnicki 0 1838 25.05% 13.21%
21 1952-06-01 15.36 @ Rabotnicki 3 1659 42.03% NK Zagreb 1 1813 44.73% 13.24%
22 1952-03-02 15.02 @ Vojvodina 5 1774 52.15% Rabotnicki 2 1856 34.59% 13.26%
23 1952-05-18 14.73 @ Sarajevo 5 1710 65.04% Rabotnicki 1 1682 21.79% 13.18%
24 1952-03-02 14.69 Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1791 15.64% @ Dinamo Zagreb 0 1889 71.31% 13.06%
25 1952-06-22 14.28 Hajduk Split 4 1978 40.02% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1857 46.73% 13.26%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1952-06-15 89.2 @ Partizan 5 1939 76.47% Vojvodina 5 1764 10.66% 12.87%
2 1952-06-22 81.5 @ Red Star Belgrade 2 1956 68.53% Dinamo Zagreb 2 1891 18.35% 13.12%
3 1952-06-08 81.0 @ Macva Sabac 2 1695 49.23% NK Zagreb 2 1798 37.52% 13.26%
4 1952-05-11 79.1 BSK Beograd 3 1857 16.61% @ Hajduk Split 2 1943 70.31% 13.08%
5 1952-05-18 76.7 @ Hajduk Split 1 1931 59.22% Dinamo Zagreb 1 1956 27.55% 13.23%
6 1952-06-15 76.5 @ Vardar 1 1705 34.47% BSK Beograd 1 1914 52.34% 13.19%
7 1952-04-20 76.3 @ Macva Sabac 1 1735 53.63% Rabotnicki 1 1806 33.11% 13.25%
8 1952-06-15 76.2 Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 1836 17.42% @ Dinamo Zagreb 2 1912 69.48% 13.10%
9 1952-06-08 75.7 @ Rabotnicki 1 1674 56.00% Sarajevo 1 1726 30.76% 13.25%
10 1952-06-01 73.7 BSK Beograd 2 1882 18.75% @ Partizan 1 1943 68.13% 13.13%
11 1952-03-30 73.2 Vojvodina 2 1787 19.92% @ Partizan 1 1835 66.93% 13.15%
12 1952-06-01 73.1 @ Dinamo Zagreb 0 1950 61.43% Red Star Belgrade 0 1956 25.35% 13.21%
13 1952-03-16 73.0 @ NK Zagreb 0 1838 59.91% BSK Beograd 0 1858 26.86% 13.23%
14 1952-04-27 73.0 @ BSK Beograd 0 1849 66.16% NK Zagreb 0 1809 20.68% 13.16%
15 1952-05-25 73.0 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 1845 48.02% Dinamo Zagreb 3 1957 38.72% 13.26%
16 1952-05-18 72.7 @ NK Zagreb 0 1813 73.26% Macva Sabac 0 1688 13.74% 13.00%
17 1952-06-15 72.7 @ Sarajevo 0 1727 53.56% NK Zagreb 0 1798 33.19% 13.25%
18 1952-06-08 72.4 Red Star Belgrade 3 1958 38.87% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1845 47.88% 13.26%
19 1952-03-16 71.9 Dinamo Zagreb 3 1878 40.02% @ Macva Sabac 2 1757 46.73% 13.26%
20 1952-03-02 70.2 Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1791 15.64% @ Dinamo Zagreb 0 1889 71.31% 13.06%
21 1952-04-06 69.6 Dinamo Zagreb 5 1874 28.32% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1842 58.44% 13.24%
22 1952-06-22 69.4 Hajduk Split 4 1978 40.02% @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 1857 46.73% 13.26%
23 1952-05-04 67.8 Vardar 1 1695 21.39% @ Sarajevo 0 1728 65.44% 13.17%
24 1952-03-16 67.5 @ Vardar 2 1715 38.78% Red Star Belgrade 1 1892 47.99% 13.22%
25 1952-05-04 66.3 @ BSK Beograd 4 1846 50.49% Red Star Belgrade 2 1940 36.25% 13.26%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1952-04-27 45.1 @ Hajduk Split 4 1945 78.34% Sarajevo 0 1735 8.90% 12.77%
2 1952-06-08 46.8 @ Partizan 7 1930 78.62% Vardar 1 1714 8.63% 12.75%
3 1952-05-11 47.2 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1856 75.63% Macva Sabac 0 1696 11.46% 12.91%
4 1952-05-18 47.4 @ Red Star Belgrade 5 1932 68.86% Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1864 18.03% 13.11%
5 1952-04-27 48.4 @ Red Star Belgrade 2 1937 79.64% Vardar 0 1699 7.68% 12.68%
6 1952-03-09 48.8 @ BSK Beograd 3 1847 70.47% Sarajevo 0 1759 16.45% 13.08%
7 1952-05-11 48.8 @ Red Star Belgrade 2 1929 78.56% Sarajevo 0 1714 8.69% 12.75%
8 1952-04-27 49.7 @ Dinamo Zagreb 5 1910 76.49% Macva Sabac 1 1734 10.64% 12.87%
9 1952-05-25 49.8 @ BSK Beograd 5 1874 75.91% Vardar 1 1709 11.20% 12.90%
10 1952-04-06 49.9 @ BSK Beograd 6 1843 70.94% Vardar 1 1750 16.00% 13.07%
11 1952-03-23 50.4 @ Vojvodina 3 1774 64.80% Macva Sabac 0 1748 22.03% 13.18%
12 1952-03-02 50.5 @ Hajduk Split 6 1886 58.62% Red Star Belgrade 0 1916 28.14% 13.23%
13 1952-03-23 50.5 @ Vardar 5 1725 57.12% Sarajevo 0 1767 29.64% 13.24%
14 1952-05-11 50.5 @ Dinamo Zagreb 4 1952 80.82% Rabotnicki 1 1686 6.60% 12.58%
15 1952-03-23 51.5 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1835 61.74% Rabotnicki 0 1838 25.05% 13.21%
16 1952-06-01 51.7 @ Hajduk Split 2 1924 69.07% Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 1853 17.82% 13.11%
17 1952-05-18 52.3 @ Sarajevo 5 1710 65.04% Rabotnicki 1 1682 21.79% 13.18%
18 1952-03-09 52.7 @ Red Star Belgrade 2 1883 65.81% NK Zagreb 0 1847 21.02% 13.16%
19 1952-03-09 53.2 @ Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 1805 56.22% Partizan 0 1855 30.54% 13.25%
20 1952-05-25 53.6 @ NK Zagreb 1 1809 70.17% Sarajevo 0 1725 16.74% 13.08%
21 1952-03-30 53.8 @ NK Zagreb 1 1833 69.73% Vardar 0 1754 17.17% 13.09%
22 1952-04-20 53.8 Hajduk Split 5 1908 47.22% @ Vardar 0 1736 39.56% 13.23%
23 1952-06-15 53.8 @ Hajduk Split 2 1968 62.16% Red Star Belgrade 0 1967 24.63% 13.21%
24 1952-03-30 54.0 @ Rabotnicki 3 1823 53.55% Dinamo Zagreb 0 1894 33.19% 13.25%
25 1952-06-01 54.9 @ Sarajevo 1 1721 64.34% Macva Sabac 0 1700 22.47% 13.18%