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2017-18 Primera Divisió Season

108 games

Final

Champion

FC Santa Coloma

61 points · 11th Title

Last Title: 2016-17

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Penya Encarnada

6.22 points above expected

11 points · 4.78 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sant Julia

6.46 points below expected

45 points · 51.46 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FC Santa Coloma 21 15 3 3 48 55 16 +39 47.99 +0.01
2 UE Engordany 21 14 5 2 47 45 11 +34 32.25 +14.75
3 Sant Julia 21 12 6 3 42 58 15 +43 39.25 +2.75
4 Lusitanos 21 10 4 7 34 49 26 +23 37.44 -3.44
5 UE Santa Coloma 21 8 5 8 29 35 25 +10 33.58 -4.58
6 Inter Club d'Escaldes 21 7 4 10 25 33 29 +4 21.28 +3.72
7 Encamp 21 3 1 17 10 26 76 -50 18.66 -8.66
8 Penya Encarnada 21 0 2 19 2 10 113 -103 8.08 -6.08
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FC Santa Coloma Champion 27 19 4 4 61 63 19 +44 57.77 +3.23
2 UE Engordany 27 16 7 4 55 50 17 +33 55.48 -0.48
3 Sant Julia 27 13 6 8 45 63 25 +38 51.46 -6.46
4 Lusitanos 27 13 5 9 44 59 35 +24 40.19 +3.81
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 UE Santa Coloma 27 12 5 10 41 53 29 +24 42.38 -1.38
2 Inter Club d'Escaldes 27 10 5 12 35 45 43 +2 36.88 -1.88
3 Encamp 27 4 2 21 14 34 88 -54 16.04 -2.04
4 Penya Encarnada 27 3 2 22 11 15 126 -111 4.78 +6.22

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Penya Encarnada 11 4.78 +6.22
2 Lusitanos 44 40.19 +3.81
3 FC Santa Coloma 61 57.77 +3.23
4 UE Engordany 55 55.48 -0.48
5 UE Santa Coloma 41 42.38 -1.38

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sant Julia 45 51.46 -6.46
2 Encamp 14 16.04 -2.04
3 Inter Club d'Escaldes 35 36.88 -1.88
4 UE Santa Coloma 41 42.38 -1.38
5 UE Engordany 55 55.48 -0.48

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 UE Engordany 7 Oct 15 – Nov 26 1 in 2,647
2 Penya Encarnada 3 Apr 8 – Apr 22 1 in 1,892
3 FC Santa Coloma 11 Oct 29 – Feb 11 1 in 40
4 Sant Julia 5 Feb 18 – Mar 18 1 in 20
5 Lusitanos 4 Feb 25 – Mar 18 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inter Club d'Escaldes 5 Feb 25 – Apr 8 1 in 127
2 Sant Julia 5 Apr 8 – May 6 1 in 124
3 Penya Encarnada 13 Sep 17 – Jan 14 1 in 49
4 Lusitanos 4 Nov 12 – Dec 10 1 in 49
5 Encamp 8 Feb 25 – Apr 29 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Penya Encarnada 3 Apr 8 – Apr 22 1 in 58
2 Inter Club d'Escaldes 5 Nov 12 – Dec 17 1 in 36
3 UE Engordany 10 Dec 17 – Apr 8 1 in 30
4 Sant Julia 9 Jan 14 – Mar 18 1 in 16
5 FC Santa Coloma 12 Oct 22 – Feb 11 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lusitanos 5 Dec 17 – Feb 18 1 in 52
2 FC Santa Coloma 3 Oct 1 – Oct 22 1 in 19
3 Sant Julia 5 Apr 8 – May 6 1 in 18
4 Penya Encarnada 21 Sep 17 – Mar 18 1 in 6
5 UE Santa Coloma 3 Sep 17 – Oct 1 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
FC Santa Coloma 1142 61 +30 10 9.2 +0.8
UE Engordany 1051 55 -30 5 6.9 -1.9
Sant Julia 1004 45 -68 3 6.5 -3.5
Lusitanos 1031 44 +67 10 5.6 +4.4
UE Santa Coloma 963 41 +61 9 10.7 -1.7
Inter Club d'Escaldes 726 35 -59 10 9.6 +0.4
Encamp 538 14 +10 4 4.9 -0.9
Penya Encarnada 387 11 -12 6 3.2 +2.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ENC FSC ICD LUS PE SJ UE USC
Encamp —
0-0-3
0.96
0-1-4
5.20
0-0-3
1.75
4-0-1
9.62
0-1-2
1.12
0-0-3
2.57
0-0-5
2.81
FC Santa Coloma
3-0-0
7.59
 —
3-0-0
7.23
3-1-1
9.79
3-0-0
7.91
2-1-2
9.77
2-2-1
9.71
3-0-0
6.18
Inter Club d'Escaldes
4-1-0
8.95
0-0-3
1.29
 —
0-1-2
2.27
4-0-1
11.61
0-0-3
2.25
0-1-2
2.71
2-2-1
5.03
Lusitanos
3-0-0
6.75
1-1-3
4.34
2-1-0
6.21
 —
2-1-0
7.94
2-1-2
6.61
2-1-2
7.33
1-0-2
4.77
Penya Encarnada
1-0-4
4.51
0-0-3
0.69
1-0-4
2.58
0-1-2
0.64
 —
0-0-3
0.67
0-0-3
0.84
1-1-3
1.49
Sant Julia
2-1-0
7.41
2-1-2
4.36
3-0-0
6.23
2-1-2
7.51
3-0-0
7.92
 —
0-2-3
8.60
1-1-1
5.31
UE Engordany
3-0-0
5.92
1-2-2
4.43
2-1-0
5.77
2-1-2
6.79
3-0-0
7.73
3-2-0
5.53
 —
2-1-0
4.46
UE Santa Coloma
5-0-0
11.36
0-0-3
2.30
1-2-2
9.10
2-0-1
3.70
3-1-1
12.77
1-1-1
3.17
0-1-2
4.02
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +9.5
Allowed 0.88 -4.3
Differential 0.87 +3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.63%9.26%7.41%4.17%0.93%5.09%31.48%
19.26%8.33%3.70%2.31%1.39%3.24%28.24%
27.41%3.70%3.70%1.85%0.93%0.46%18.06%
34.17%2.31%1.85%——0.93%9.26%
40.93%1.39%0.93%———3.24%
5+5.09%3.24%0.46%0.93%——9.72%
Total31.48%28.24%18.06%9.26%3.24%9.72%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.77 +0.00
SD 2.33 2.33 3.63
CV 1.32 1.32 —
Max 18 18 +18
Min 0 0 -18

Games Played: 108

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.70%22.22%7.41%—11.11%44.44%
1—3.70%7.41%3.70%3.70%11.11%29.63%
2—3.70%3.70%3.70%——11.11%
33.70%————3.70%7.41%
4———————
5+3.70%—3.70%———7.41%
Total7.41%11.11%37.04%14.81%3.70%25.93%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 3.26 -2.00
SD 1.91 2.64 3.55
CV 1.52 0.81 —
Max 8 11 +6
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%—3.70%———7.41%
125.93%7.41%3.70%3.70%——40.74%
214.81%—3.70%3.70%——22.22%
37.41%—————7.41%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+11.11%3.70%—3.70%——18.52%
Total62.96%14.81%11.11%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 0.70 +1.63
SD 2.02 1.07 2.31
CV 0.87 1.52 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%11.11%7.41%3.70%—3.70%29.63%
1—7.41%7.41%3.70%3.70%—22.22%
211.11%—7.41%—3.70%—22.22%
37.41%7.41%3.70%———18.52%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total25.93%29.63%25.93%7.41%7.41%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.59 +0.07
SD 1.75 1.60 2.77
CV 1.05 1.00 —
Max 8 7 +8
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%14.81%—7.41%——25.93%
13.70%7.41%3.70%—3.70%—18.52%
214.81%3.70%7.41%———25.93%
33.70%3.70%3.70%——3.70%14.81%
4——3.70%———3.70%
5+3.70%7.41%————11.11%
Total29.63%37.04%18.52%7.41%3.70%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.19 1.30 +0.89
SD 2.57 1.30 2.99
CV 1.18 1.00 —
Max 12 5 +11
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.70%7.41%14.81%7.41%25.93%59.26%
13.70%3.70%3.70%——14.81%25.93%
2—7.41%3.70%——3.70%14.81%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total3.70%14.81%14.81%14.81%7.41%44.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 4.67 -4.11
SD 0.75 3.86 4.06
CV 1.35 0.83 —
Max 2 18 +1
Min 0 0 -18

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%14.81%3.70%———25.93%
114.81%14.81%3.70%———33.33%
23.70%3.70%—7.41%——14.81%
3—7.41%————7.41%
43.70%—3.70%———7.41%
5+3.70%7.41%————11.11%
Total33.33%48.15%11.11%7.41%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 0.93 +1.41
SD 3.71 0.87 3.92
CV 1.59 0.94 —
Max 18 3 +18
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%7.41%————22.22%
122.22%11.11%—3.70%——37.04%
211.11%3.70%——3.70%—18.52%
37.41%—3.70%———11.11%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+3.70%3.70%————7.41%
Total59.26%29.63%3.70%3.70%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.85 0.63 +1.22
SD 2.30 1.01 2.42
CV 1.24 1.60 —
Max 11 4 +10
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%18.52%14.81%———37.04%
13.70%11.11%—3.70%——18.52%
23.70%7.41%3.70%———14.81%
33.70%—3.70%———7.41%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+11.11%3.70%—3.70%——18.52%
Total29.63%40.74%22.22%7.41%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 1.07 +0.89
SD 2.28 0.92 2.64
CV 1.16 0.85 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FC Santa Coloma 1142 61 47.99 +13.01 57.0% 34 40 44 47 51 58 63
UE Engordany 1051 55 32.25 +22.75 99.0% 20 23 29 33 35 40 48
Lusitanos 1031 44 37.44 +6.56 29.0% 25 29 33 37 41 46 50
Sant Julia 1004 45 39.25 +5.75 77.0% 28 30 35 40 42 49 50
UE Santa Coloma 963 41 33.58 +7.42 21.0% 22 24 31 34 36 41 51
Inter Club d'Escaldes 726 35 21.28 +13.72 82.0% 12 14 18 21 25 27 37
Encamp 538 14 18.66 -4.66 5.0% 7 10 15 19 22 26 31
Penya Encarnada 387 11 8.08 +2.92 3.0% 2 3 5 8 10 15 17

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -2.5% * Slight Edge: -2.5% to 0% * Clear Edge: 0% to 6% * Strong Edge: 6% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+1.85%
Clear Edge
42.59%16.67%40.74%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 6.43 Elo pts.
132 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.35 goals
Neutral
-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.7
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
75%
FC Santa Coloma, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.270.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.92 * Some Luck: 3.92 to 5.89 * Lucky: 5.89 to 7.85 * Wild Swing: 7.85 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.47 * Close: 0.47 to 0.7 * Off: 0.7 to 0.94 * Way Off: 0.94 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.92 points
Lucky
04.9012
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Off
00.591.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
99.00%
UE Engordany
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Penya Encarnada
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.1 * Moderate Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Strong Separation: 2.35 to 2.5 * Wide Separation: 2.5 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 83.5% * Slight Edge: 83.5% to 89% * Clear Edge: 89% to 94% * Wide Edge: 94% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98.5% * Strong Edge: 98.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 40.5% * Some Drama: 40.5% to 45.5% * Frequent: 45.5% to 53% * Very Frequent: 53% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 28% * Occasional: 28% to 33.5% * Frequent: 33.5% to 41.5% * Very Frequent: 41.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Even
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 270.97
2.48
Strong Separation
12.12.353.25
Interquartile Edge
86%
Slight Edge
50%83.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
46%
Frequent
0%32%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Occasional
0%49%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.49 * Slight Separation: 0.49 to 0.54 * Notable Separation: 0.54 to 0.6 * Lopsided: 0.6 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.56 * Some Carryover: 0.56 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.86 * Near-Lock: 0.86 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15.5% * Very Shaky: 15.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.54
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.07
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.69
Some Carryover
00.560.761
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Upset-Prone
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Very Shaky
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.66
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.87
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.106
Well Within Noise
00.1470.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team12345678
FC Santa Coloma75.00%19.00%4.00%2.00%————
UE Engordany2.00%7.00%17.00%26.00%40.00%8.00%——
Sant Julia15.00%43.00%21.00%12.00%9.00%———
Lusitanos6.00%26.00%36.00%18.00%14.00%———
UE Santa Coloma2.00%5.00%22.00%39.00%24.00%7.00%1.00%—
Inter Club d'Escaldes———2.00%9.00%58.00%29.00%2.00%
Encamp———1.00%4.00%27.00%64.00%4.00%
Penya Encarnada——————6.00%94.00%
Team12345678
FC Santa Coloma58.29%28.92%12.57%0.22%————
UE Engordany31.56%41.83%25.96%0.65%————
Sant Julia10.15%28.79%56.13%4.93%————
Lusitanos—0.46%5.34%94.20%————
UE Santa Coloma————83.90%16.10%——
Inter Club d'Escaldes————16.10%83.90%——
Encamp——————98.53%1.47%
Penya Encarnada——————1.47%98.53%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
FC Santa Coloma 100% — —
Inter Club d'Escaldes 82.00% 18.00% —
Lusitanos 100% — —
Sant Julia 100% — —
UE Engordany 100% — —
UE Santa Coloma 100% — —
Encamp 18.00% 79.00% 3.00%
Penya Encarnada — 3.00% 97.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
FC Santa Coloma 100% — —
Inter Club d'Escaldes 100% — —
Lusitanos 100% — —
Sant Julia 100% — —
UE Engordany 100% — —
UE Santa Coloma 100% — —
Encamp — 98.53% 1.47%
Penya Encarnada — 1.47% 98.53%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2017-09-17 FC Santa Coloma L 0-627.5 679 1071 7.00% 15.81% 77.19%-2.93 -19.9 0
2017-09-17 @ Penya Encarnada W 6-027.5 1071 679 77.19% 15.81% 7.00%+2.93 +19.9 3
2017-09-17 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-348.9 801 700 55.44% 17.52% 27.04%+0.82 -41.1 0
2017-09-17 @ Encamp W 3-148.9 700 801 27.04% 17.52% 55.44%-0.82 +41.1 3
2017-09-17 Lusitanos L 0-140.8 936 986 35.08% 17.65% 47.27%-0.33 -17.0 0
2017-09-17 @ UE Santa Coloma W 1-040.8 986 936 47.27% 17.65% 35.08%+0.33 +17.0 3
2017-09-17 UE Engordany D 0-050.9 950 717 68.39% 16.92% 14.68%+1.82 -6.7 1
2017-09-17 @ Sant Julia D 0-050.9 717 950 14.68% 16.92% 68.39%-1.82 +6.7 1
2017-09-24 Encamp W 2-042.8 724 760 37.04% 17.66% 45.30%-0.22 +39.6 4
2017-09-24 @ UE Engordany L 0-242.8 760 724 45.30% 17.66% 37.04%+0.22 -39.6 0
2017-09-24 Penya Encarnada W 2-038.0 741 660 53.07% 17.57% 29.36%+0.67 +27.5 6
2017-09-24 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-238.0 660 741 29.36% 17.57% 53.07%-0.67 -27.5 0
2017-09-24 Sant Julia L 0-145.4 1003 944 50.23% 17.62% 32.16%+0.50 -23.0 3
2017-09-24 @ Lusitanos W 1-045.4 944 1003 32.16% 17.62% 50.23%-0.50 +23.0 4
2017-09-24 UE Santa Coloma W 1-036.1 1091 919 63.11% 17.25% 19.64%+1.36 +10.2 6
2017-09-24 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-136.1 919 1091 19.64% 17.25% 63.11%-1.36 -10.2 0
2017-10-01 FC Santa Coloma D 1-153.5 967 1102 24.69% 17.45% 57.86%-0.97 +3.5 5
2017-10-01 @ Sant Julia D 1-153.5 1102 967 57.86% 17.45% 24.69%+0.97 -3.5 7
2017-10-01 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 0-050.8 909 769 59.88% 17.39% 22.74%+1.12 -4.5 1
2017-10-01 @ UE Santa Coloma D 0-050.8 769 909 22.74% 17.39% 59.88%-1.12 +4.5 7
2017-10-01 Lusitanos L 1-337.3 764 980 16.95% 17.09% 65.96%-1.59 -14.6 4
2017-10-01 @ UE Engordany W 3-137.3 980 764 65.96% 17.09% 16.95%+1.59 +14.6 6
2017-10-01 Penya Encarnada W 6-034.5 720 632 53.88% 17.56% 28.57%+0.72 +74.6 3
2017-10-01 @ Encamp L 0-634.5 632 720 28.57% 17.56% 53.88%-0.72 -74.6 0
2017-10-15 Encamp W 2-034.2 995 795 65.65% 17.11% 17.24%+1.57 +17.1 9
2017-10-15 @ Lusitanos L 0-234.2 795 995 17.24% 17.11% 65.65%-1.57 -17.1 3
2017-10-15 Sant Julia L 2-440.8 773 970 18.55% 17.19% 64.26%-1.45 -14.1 7
2017-10-15 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 4-240.8 970 773 64.26% 17.19% 18.55%+1.45 +14.2 8
2017-10-15 UE Engordany L 2-358.6 1098 749 75.74% 16.07% 8.19%+2.70 -30.7 7
2017-10-15 @ FC Santa Coloma W 3-258.6 749 1098 8.19% 16.07% 75.74%-2.70 +30.7 7
2017-10-15 UE Santa Coloma L 0-429.5 557 904 8.84% 16.19% 74.97%-2.59 -17.1 0
2017-10-15 @ Penya Encarnada W 4-029.5 904 557 74.97% 16.19% 8.84%+2.59 +17.1 4
2017-10-22 FC Santa Coloma D 2-256.5 1012 1067 34.31% 17.64% 48.04%-0.37 +1.1 10
2017-10-22 @ Lusitanos D 2-256.5 1067 1012 48.04% 17.64% 34.31%+0.37 -1.0 8
2017-10-22 Inter Club d'Escaldes W 4-142.5 780 759 45.05% 17.67% 37.28%+0.21 +41.2 10
2017-10-22 @ UE Engordany L 1-442.5 759 780 37.28% 17.67% 45.05%-0.21 -41.2 7
2017-10-22 Penya Encarnada W 18-026.0 984 540 79.82% 15.19% 4.99%+3.42 +40.7 11
2017-10-22 @ Sant Julia L 0-1826.0 540 984 4.99% 15.19% 79.82%-3.42 -40.7 0
2017-10-22 UE Santa Coloma L 3-643.2 778 922 23.70% 17.42% 58.88%-1.04 -22.4 3
2017-10-22 @ Encamp W 6-343.2 922 778 58.88% 17.42% 23.70%+1.04 +22.4 7
2017-10-29 FC Santa Coloma L 1-731.2 755 1066 10.61% 16.48% 72.91%-2.31 -24.7 3
2017-10-29 @ Encamp W 7-131.2 1066 755 72.91% 16.48% 10.61%+2.31 +24.7 11
2017-10-29 Lusitanos L 0-232.3 718 1013 11.50% 16.59% 71.90%-2.19 -11.7 7
2017-10-29 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 2-032.3 1013 718 71.90% 16.59% 11.50%+2.19 +11.7 13
2017-10-29 Sant Julia D 1-153.4 944 1025 31.00% 17.60% 51.40%-0.57 +2.1 8
2017-10-29 @ UE Santa Coloma D 1-153.4 1025 944 51.40% 17.60% 31.00%+0.57 -2.1 12
2017-10-29 UE Engordany L 0-628.6 500 821 10.07% 16.40% 73.53%-2.39 -28.5 0
2017-10-29 @ Penya Encarnada W 6-028.6 821 500 73.53% 16.40% 10.07%+2.39 +28.5 13
2017-11-05 Encamp D 1-153.7 1023 730 72.56% 16.52% 10.92%+2.27 -7.0 13
2017-11-05 @ Sant Julia D 1-153.7 730 1023 10.92% 16.52% 72.56%-2.27 +7.0 4
2017-11-05 Inter Club d'Escaldes W 3-029.6 1091 706 77.45% 15.75% 6.79%+2.97 +10.1 14
2017-11-05 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-329.6 706 1091 6.79% 15.75% 77.45%-2.97 -10.1 7
2017-11-05 Penya Encarnada W 12-125.6 1024 471 83.17% 14.03% 2.80%+4.25 +11.4 16
2017-11-05 @ Lusitanos L 1-1225.6 471 1024 2.80% 14.03% 83.17%-4.25 -11.4 0
2017-11-05 UE Santa Coloma W 1-046.3 850 946 29.10% 17.57% 53.33%-0.68 +24.3 16
2017-11-05 @ UE Engordany L 0-146.3 946 850 53.33% 17.57% 29.10%+0.68 -24.3 8
2017-11-12 Encamp W 4-145.2 696 737 36.21% 17.66% 46.13%-0.27 +49.3 10
2017-11-12 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-445.2 737 696 46.13% 17.66% 36.21%+0.27 -49.3 4
2017-11-12 Penya Encarnada W 7-024.7 1101 460 85.23% 13.03% 1.75%+4.92 +5.5 17
2017-11-12 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-724.7 460 1101 1.75% 13.03% 85.23%-4.92 -5.5 0
2017-11-12 Sant Julia W 1-047.8 874 1016 23.90% 17.43% 58.68%-1.03 +26.6 19
2017-11-12 @ UE Engordany L 0-147.8 1016 874 58.68% 17.43% 23.90%+1.03 -26.6 13
2017-11-12 UE Santa Coloma L 0-147.3 1036 922 56.96% 17.48% 25.56%+0.91 -25.9 16
2017-11-12 @ Lusitanos W 1-047.3 922 1036 25.56% 17.48% 56.96%-0.91 +25.9 11
2017-11-19 FC Santa Coloma L 0-235.8 948 1107 22.15% 17.36% 60.48%-1.16 -21.5 11
2017-11-19 @ UE Santa Coloma W 2-035.8 1107 948 60.48% 17.36% 22.15%+1.16 +21.5 20
2017-11-19 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-828.5 454 745 11.75% 16.62% 71.62%-2.16 -43.5 0
2017-11-19 @ Penya Encarnada W 8-028.5 745 454 71.62% 16.62% 11.75%+2.16 +43.5 13
2017-11-19 Lusitanos W 1-043.3 989 1010 39.16% 17.67% 43.17%-0.11 +20.2 16
2017-11-19 @ Sant Julia L 0-143.3 1010 989 43.17% 17.67% 39.16%+0.11 -20.2 16
2017-11-19 UE Engordany L 0-234.2 688 900 17.27% 17.11% 65.61%-1.56 -17.1 4
2017-11-19 @ Encamp W 2-034.2 900 688 65.61% 17.11% 17.27%+1.56 +17.1 22
2017-11-26 Encamp L 2-833.9 411 671 13.69% 16.83% 69.48%-1.93 -26.1 0
2017-11-26 @ Penya Encarnada W 8-233.9 671 411 69.48% 16.83% 13.69%+1.93 +26.1 7
2017-11-26 Sant Julia W 1-037.8 1128 1010 57.47% 17.47% 25.07%+0.95 +12.7 23
2017-11-26 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-137.8 1010 1128 25.07% 17.47% 57.47%-0.95 -12.7 16
2017-11-26 UE Engordany L 0-343.7 990 918 51.89% 17.59% 30.52%+0.60 -64.9 16
2017-11-26 @ Lusitanos W 3-043.7 918 990 30.52% 17.59% 51.89%-0.60 +64.9 25
2017-11-26 UE Santa Coloma D 2-256.6 789 926 24.39% 17.45% 58.17%-1.00 +2.7 14
2017-11-26 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes D 2-256.6 926 789 58.17% 17.45% 24.39%+1.00 -2.7 12
2017-12-10 Encamp W 5-030.8 923 697 67.86% 16.96% 15.18%+1.77 +35.5 15
2017-12-10 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-530.8 697 923 15.18% 16.96% 67.86%-1.77 -35.5 7
2017-12-10 Lusitanos W 5-342.4 1141 925 67.02% 17.02% 15.96%+1.69 +11.6 26
2017-12-10 @ FC Santa Coloma L 3-542.4 925 1141 15.96% 17.02% 67.02%-1.69 -11.6 16
2017-12-10 Sant Julia L 0-426.7 385 997 2.19% 13.51% 84.30%-4.60 -4.1 0
2017-12-10 @ Penya Encarnada W 4-026.7 997 385 84.30% 13.51% 2.19%+4.60 +4.1 19
2017-12-10 UE Engordany D 1-153.5 791 982 19.09% 17.22% 63.69%-1.40 +4.9 15
2017-12-10 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-153.5 982 791 63.69% 17.22% 19.09%+1.40 -4.9 26
2017-12-13 FC Santa Coloma L 0-136.4 978 1152 20.61% 17.30% 62.10%-1.28 -10.7 26
2017-12-13 @ UE Engordany W 1-036.4 1152 978 62.10% 17.30% 20.61%+1.28 +10.7 29
2017-12-14 Lusitanos L 0-630.0 662 913 14.29% 16.89% 68.83%-1.86 -39.8 7
2017-12-14 @ Encamp W 6-030.0 913 662 68.83% 16.89% 14.29%+1.86 +39.8 19
2017-12-17 Encamp W 2-029.1 1163 622 82.85% 14.17% 2.99%+4.16 +3.0 32
2017-12-17 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-229.1 622 1163 2.99% 14.17% 82.85%-4.16 -3.0 7
2017-12-17 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-153.5 953 796 61.59% 17.32% 21.09%+1.24 -4.4 20
2017-12-17 @ Lusitanos D 1-153.5 796 953 21.09% 17.32% 61.59%-1.24 +4.4 16
2017-12-17 Penya Encarnada W 1-029.8 967 381 83.99% 13.66% 2.35%+4.50 +1.2 29
2017-12-17 @ UE Engordany L 0-129.8 381 967 2.35% 13.66% 83.99%-4.50 -1.2 0
2017-12-17 UE Santa Coloma L 2-350.8 1001 959 47.94% 17.64% 34.41%+0.37 -19.8 19
2017-12-17 @ Sant Julia W 3-250.8 959 1001 34.41% 17.64% 47.94%-0.37 +19.8 18
2018-01-14 Inter Club d'Escaldes W 1-035.8 981 801 63.91% 17.21% 18.88%+1.42 +9.9 22
2018-01-14 @ Sant Julia L 0-135.8 801 981 18.88% 17.21% 63.91%-1.42 -9.8 16
2018-01-14 Penya Encarnada W 7-127.8 979 379 84.30% 13.51% 2.19%+4.60 +5.0 21
2018-01-14 @ UE Santa Coloma L 1-727.8 379 979 2.19% 13.51% 84.30%-4.60 -5.0 0
2018-01-28 FC Santa Coloma L 0-231.0 791 1166 7.64% 15.95% 76.41%-2.80 -7.8 16
2018-01-28 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 2-031.0 1166 791 76.41% 15.95% 7.64%+2.80 +7.8 35
2018-01-28 Lusitanos D 2-257.6 374 949 2.68% 13.94% 83.38%-4.31 +6.9 1
2018-01-28 @ Penya Encarnada D 2-257.6 949 374 83.38% 13.94% 2.68%+4.31 -6.9 21
2018-01-28 UE Engordany L 0-143.6 984 968 44.28% 17.67% 38.05%+0.17 -20.6 21
2018-01-28 @ UE Santa Coloma W 1-043.6 968 984 38.05% 17.67% 44.28%-0.17 +20.6 32
2018-02-01 Sant Julia L 0-132.1 619 991 7.76% 15.98% 76.26%-2.78 -4.2 7
2018-02-01 @ Encamp W 1-032.1 991 619 76.26% 15.98% 7.76%+2.78 +4.2 25
2018-02-04 FC Santa Coloma L 0-326.5 381 1174 0.83% 11.38% 87.79%-5.97 -1.1 1
2018-02-04 @ Penya Encarnada W 3-026.5 1174 381 87.79% 11.38% 0.83%+5.97 +1.1 38
2018-02-04 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-235.5 615 783 21.24% 17.33% 61.44%-1.23 -20.7 7
2018-02-04 @ Encamp W 2-035.5 783 615 61.44% 17.33% 21.24%+1.23 +20.7 19
2018-02-04 Lusitanos W 2-144.4 963 942 45.10% 17.67% 37.24%+0.21 +16.8 24
2018-02-04 @ UE Santa Coloma L 1-244.4 942 963 37.24% 17.67% 45.10%-0.21 -16.8 21
2018-02-04 UE Engordany D 0-050.7 995 989 43.01% 17.67% 39.31%+0.10 -0.4 26
2018-02-04 @ Sant Julia D 0-050.7 989 995 39.31% 17.67% 43.01%-0.10 +0.4 33
2018-02-11 Encamp W 11-127.5 989 594 77.90% 15.66% 6.44%+3.05 +24.4 36
2018-02-11 @ UE Engordany L 1-1127.5 594 989 6.44% 15.66% 77.90%-3.05 -24.4 7
2018-02-11 Penya Encarnada W 3-029.2 804 380 79.05% 15.39% 5.56%+3.26 +8.2 22
2018-02-11 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-329.2 380 804 5.56% 15.39% 79.05%-3.26 -8.2 1
2018-02-11 Sant Julia D 1-153.4 925 995 32.43% 17.62% 49.95%-0.48 +1.8 22
2018-02-11 @ Lusitanos D 1-153.4 995 925 49.95% 17.62% 32.43%+0.48 -1.8 27
2018-02-11 UE Santa Coloma W 2-034.4 1175 980 65.23% 17.14% 17.63%+1.53 +17.5 41
2018-02-11 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-234.4 980 1175 17.63% 17.14% 65.23%-1.53 -17.4 24
2018-02-18 FC Santa Coloma W 3-151.6 993 1192 18.37% 17.18% 64.45%-1.47 +47.6 30
2018-02-18 @ Sant Julia L 1-351.6 1192 993 64.45% 17.18% 18.37%+1.47 -47.6 41
2018-02-18 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-247.4 962 812 60.95% 17.35% 21.70%+1.19 -52.0 24
2018-02-18 @ UE Santa Coloma W 2-047.4 812 962 21.70% 17.35% 60.95%-1.19 +52.0 25
2018-02-18 Lusitanos W 3-036.8 1014 927 53.74% 17.56% 28.70%+0.71 +39.2 39
2018-02-18 @ UE Engordany L 0-336.8 927 1014 28.70% 17.56% 53.74%-0.71 -39.2 22
2018-02-18 Penya Encarnada W 2-138.3 570 372 65.45% 17.12% 17.42%+1.55 +8.6 10
2018-02-18 @ Encamp L 1-238.3 372 570 17.42% 17.12% 65.45%-1.55 -8.6 1
2018-02-25 Encamp W 3-030.8 888 578 73.58% 16.39% 10.03%+2.40 +14.8 25
2018-02-25 @ Lusitanos L 0-330.8 578 888 10.03% 16.39% 73.58%-2.40 -14.8 10
2018-02-25 Sant Julia L 1-338.4 864 1041 20.41% 17.29% 62.30%-1.29 -17.3 25
2018-02-25 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 3-138.4 1041 864 62.30% 17.29% 20.41%+1.29 +17.3 33
2018-02-25 UE Engordany D 1-153.5 1145 1053 54.36% 17.55% 28.10%+0.75 -2.8 42
2018-02-25 @ FC Santa Coloma D 1-153.5 1053 1145 28.10% 17.55% 54.36%-0.75 +2.8 40
2018-02-25 UE Santa Coloma D 1-154.4 363 910 3.10% 14.24% 82.66%-4.11 +9.2 2
2018-02-25 @ Penya Encarnada D 1-154.4 910 363 82.66% 14.24% 3.10%+4.11 -9.2 25
2018-03-04 FC Santa Coloma W 2-049.4 902 1142 15.14% 16.96% 67.90%-1.77 +58.0 28
2018-03-04 @ Lusitanos L 0-249.4 1142 902 67.90% 16.96% 15.14%+1.77 -58.0 42
2018-03-04 Inter Club d'Escaldes W 1-035.1 1056 847 66.44% 17.06% 16.50%+1.64 +8.7 43
2018-03-04 @ UE Engordany L 0-135.1 847 1056 16.50% 17.06% 66.44%-1.64 -8.7 25
2018-03-04 Penya Encarnada W 5-129.1 1058 372 86.12% 12.50% 1.38%+5.26 +2.1 36
2018-03-04 @ Sant Julia L 1-529.1 372 1058 1.38% 12.50% 86.12%-5.26 -2.1 2
2018-03-04 UE Santa Coloma L 1-235.6 563 901 9.26% 16.27% 74.47%-2.52 -4.7 10
2018-03-04 @ Encamp W 2-135.6 901 563 74.47% 16.27% 9.26%+2.52 +4.7 28
2018-03-11 FC Santa Coloma L 0-526.6 559 1084 3.48% 14.48% 82.05%-3.94 -8.2 10
2018-03-11 @ Encamp W 5-026.6 1084 559 82.05% 14.48% 3.48%+3.94 +8.2 45
2018-03-11 Lusitanos L 1-241.0 838 960 26.05% 17.49% 56.45%-0.88 -12.4 25
2018-03-11 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 2-141.0 960 838 56.45% 17.49% 26.05%+0.88 +12.4 31
2018-03-11 Sant Julia L 0-235.9 906 1060 22.64% 17.38% 59.97%-1.12 -21.9 28
2018-03-11 @ UE Santa Coloma W 2-035.9 1060 906 59.97% 17.38% 22.64%+1.12 +21.9 39
2018-03-11 UE Engordany L 0-228.1 370 1064 1.41% 12.56% 86.03%-5.22 -1.4 2
2018-03-11 @ Penya Encarnada W 2-028.1 1064 370 86.03% 12.56% 1.41%+5.22 +1.4 46
2018-03-18 Encamp W 9-126.9 1082 550 82.59% 14.27% 3.14%+4.09 +9.5 42
2018-03-18 @ Sant Julia L 1-926.9 550 1082 3.14% 14.27% 82.59%-4.09 -9.5 10
2018-03-18 Inter Club d'Escaldes W 1-033.7 1092 825 70.87% 16.70% 12.43%+2.08 +6.7 48
2018-03-18 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-133.7 825 1092 12.43% 16.70% 70.87%-2.08 -6.7 25
2018-03-18 Penya Encarnada W 6-128.6 973 369 84.40% 13.46% 2.14%+4.64 +4.1 34
2018-03-18 @ Lusitanos L 1-628.6 369 973 2.14% 13.46% 84.40%-4.64 -4.1 2
2018-03-18 UE Santa Coloma D 1-153.5 1066 884 63.99% 17.21% 18.80%+1.43 -4.9 47
2018-03-18 @ UE Engordany D 1-153.5 884 1066 18.80% 17.21% 63.99%-1.43 +4.9 29

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-04-07 FC Santa Coloma L 0-138.1 977 1099 26.10% 17.50% 56.41%-0.88 -13.2 0
2018-04-07 @ Lusitanos W 1-038.1 1099 977 56.41% 17.50% 26.10%+0.88 +13.2 3
2018-04-08 Penya Encarnada L 1-256.5 819 365 80.17% 15.09% 4.74%+3.50 -34.2 0
2018-04-08 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 2-156.5 365 819 4.74% 15.09% 80.17%-3.50 +34.1 3
2018-04-08 UE Engordany L 1-247.2 1091 1061 46.40% 17.66% 35.94%+0.28 -20.2 0
2018-04-08 @ Sant Julia W 2-147.2 1061 1091 35.94% 17.66% 46.40%-0.28 +20.2 3
2018-04-08 UE Santa Coloma L 0-330.4 541 889 8.79% 16.19% 75.03%-2.59 -13.0 0
2018-04-08 @ Encamp W 3-030.4 889 541 75.03% 16.19% 8.79%+2.59 +13.0 3
2018-04-15 FC Santa Coloma L 0-141.6 1081 1112 37.65% 17.67% 44.68%-0.19 -18.0 3
2018-04-15 @ UE Engordany W 1-041.6 1112 1081 44.68% 17.67% 37.65%+0.19 +18.0 6
2018-04-15 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 2-340.3 528 785 13.92% 16.85% 69.23%-1.90 -6.6 0
2018-04-15 @ Encamp W 3-240.3 785 528 69.23% 16.85% 13.92%+1.90 +6.6 3
2018-04-15 Lusitanos L 2-353.2 1071 964 56.21% 17.50% 26.29%+0.87 -22.8 0
2018-04-15 @ Sant Julia W 3-253.2 964 1071 26.29% 17.50% 56.21%-0.87 +22.8 3
2018-04-15 Penya Encarnada L 0-153.9 902 399 81.76% 14.58% 3.66%+3.87 -36.8 3
2018-04-15 @ UE Santa Coloma W 1-053.9 399 902 3.66% 14.58% 81.76%-3.87 +36.8 6
2018-04-21 Sant Julia W 1-039.1 1130 1048 53.09% 17.57% 29.34%+0.67 +14.6 9
2018-04-21 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-139.1 1048 1130 29.34% 17.57% 53.09%-0.67 -14.6 0
2018-04-22 Encamp W 2-148.8 436 521 30.46% 17.59% 51.95%-0.60 +22.4 9
2018-04-22 @ Penya Encarnada L 1-248.8 521 436 51.95% 17.59% 30.46%+0.60 -22.4 0
2018-04-22 UE Engordany W 4-250.6 987 1063 31.61% 17.61% 50.78%-0.53 +34.0 6
2018-04-22 @ Lusitanos L 2-450.6 1063 987 50.78% 17.61% 31.61%+0.53 -34.0 3
2018-04-22 UE Santa Coloma W 3-147.5 791 865 31.93% 17.61% 50.46%-0.51 +37.7 6
2018-04-22 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-347.5 865 791 50.46% 17.61% 31.93%+0.51 -37.7 3
2018-04-28 Lusitanos W 4-138.6 1145 1020 58.12% 17.45% 24.44%+0.99 +28.7 12
2018-04-28 @ FC Santa Coloma L 1-438.6 1020 1145 24.44% 17.45% 58.12%-0.99 -28.7 6
2018-04-29 Encamp W 2-031.5 827 499 74.67% 16.24% 9.09%+2.54 +9.3 6
2018-04-29 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-231.5 499 827 9.09% 16.24% 74.67%-2.54 -9.3 0
2018-04-29 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-330.0 458 829 7.82% 15.99% 76.19%-2.77 -11.6 9
2018-04-29 @ Penya Encarnada W 3-030.0 829 458 76.19% 15.99% 7.82%+2.77 +11.6 9
2018-04-29 Sant Julia W 1-042.6 1029 1034 41.39% 17.68% 40.94%+0.01 +19.3 6
2018-04-29 @ UE Engordany L 0-142.6 1034 1029 40.94% 17.68% 41.39%-0.01 -19.3 0
2018-05-06 Encamp D 2-257.0 841 490 75.84% 16.05% 8.10%+2.72 -5.8 10
2018-05-06 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes D 2-257.0 490 841 8.10% 16.05% 75.84%-2.72 +5.8 1
2018-05-06 Sant Julia W 2-042.3 992 1015 38.83% 17.67% 43.49%-0.12 +38.3 9
2018-05-06 @ Lusitanos L 0-242.3 1015 992 43.49% 17.67% 38.83%+0.12 -38.3 0
2018-05-06 UE Engordany D 0-050.8 1173 1048 58.21% 17.44% 24.34%+1.00 -4.1 13
2018-05-06 @ FC Santa Coloma D 0-050.8 1048 1173 24.34% 17.44% 58.21%-1.00 +4.0 7
2018-05-06 UE Santa Coloma L 0-528.1 447 837 7.07% 15.82% 77.11%-2.92 -16.9 9
2018-05-06 @ Penya Encarnada W 5-028.1 837 447 77.11% 15.82% 7.07%+2.92 +16.9 9
2018-05-13 FC Santa Coloma W 2-152.3 976 1169 18.92% 17.21% 63.86%-1.42 +27.2 3
2018-05-13 @ Sant Julia L 1-252.3 1169 976 63.86% 17.21% 18.92%+1.42 -27.2 13
2018-05-13 Inter Club d'Escaldes W 7-036.8 854 835 44.75% 17.67% 37.59%+0.19 +109.0 12
2018-05-13 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-736.8 835 854 37.59% 17.67% 44.75%-0.19 -109.0 10
2018-05-13 Lusitanos D 0-050.7 1052 1030 45.23% 17.66% 37.11%+0.22 -0.9 8
2018-05-13 @ UE Engordany D 0-050.7 1030 1052 37.11% 17.66% 45.23%-0.22 +0.9 10
2018-05-13 Penya Encarnada W 3-037.6 495 430 51.07% 17.61% 31.33%+0.55 +42.2 4
2018-05-13 @ Encamp L 0-337.6 430 495 31.33% 17.61% 51.07%-0.55 -42.2 9

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2018-04-15 3.66% Penya Encarnada 399 1 @ UE Santa Coloma 902 0
2 2018-04-08 4.74% Penya Encarnada 365 2 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 819 1
3 2017-10-15 8.19% UE Engordany 749 3 @ FC Santa Coloma 1098 2
4 2018-03-04 15.14% @ Lusitanos 902 2 FC Santa Coloma 1142 0
5 2018-02-18 18.37% @ Sant Julia 993 3 FC Santa Coloma 1192 1
6 2018-05-13 18.92% @ Sant Julia 976 2 FC Santa Coloma 1169 1
7 2018-02-18 21.70% Inter Club d'Escaldes 812 2 @ UE Santa Coloma 962 0
8 2017-11-12 23.90% @ UE Engordany 874 1 Sant Julia 1016 0
9 2017-11-12 25.56% UE Santa Coloma 922 1 @ Lusitanos 1036 0
10 2018-04-15 26.29% Lusitanos 964 3 @ Sant Julia 1071 2
11 2017-09-17 27.04% Inter Club d'Escaldes 700 3 @ Encamp 801 1
12 2017-11-05 29.10% @ UE Engordany 850 1 UE Santa Coloma 946 0
13 2018-04-22 30.46% @ Penya Encarnada 436 2 Encamp 521 1
14 2017-11-26 30.52% UE Engordany 918 3 @ Lusitanos 990 0
15 2018-04-22 31.61% @ Lusitanos 987 4 UE Engordany 1063 2
16 2018-04-22 31.93% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 791 3 UE Santa Coloma 865 1
17 2017-09-24 32.16% Sant Julia 944 1 @ Lusitanos 1003 0
18 2017-12-17 34.41% UE Santa Coloma 959 3 @ Sant Julia 1001 2
19 2018-04-08 35.94% UE Engordany 1061 2 @ Sant Julia 1091 1
20 2017-11-12 36.21% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 696 4 Encamp 737 1
21 2017-09-24 37.04% @ UE Engordany 724 2 Encamp 760 0
22 2018-01-28 38.05% UE Engordany 968 1 @ UE Santa Coloma 984 0
23 2018-05-06 38.83% @ Lusitanos 992 2 Sant Julia 1015 0
24 2017-11-19 39.16% @ Sant Julia 989 1 Lusitanos 1010 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-05-13 109.01 @ UE Santa Coloma 7 854 44.75% Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 835 37.59% 17.67%
2 2017-10-01 74.58 @ Encamp 6 720 53.88% Penya Encarnada 0 632 28.57% 17.56%
3 2017-11-26 64.90 UE Engordany 3 918 30.52% @ Lusitanos 0 990 51.89% 17.59%
4 2018-03-04 57.98 @ Lusitanos 2 902 15.14% FC Santa Coloma 0 1142 67.90% 16.96%
5 2018-02-18 52.05 Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 812 21.70% @ UE Santa Coloma 0 962 60.95% 17.35%
6 2017-11-12 49.29 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 4 696 36.21% Encamp 1 737 46.13% 17.66%
7 2018-02-18 47.63 @ Sant Julia 3 993 18.37% FC Santa Coloma 1 1192 64.45% 17.18%
8 2017-11-19 43.47 Inter Club d'Escaldes 8 745 71.62% @ Penya Encarnada 0 454 11.75% 16.62%
9 2018-05-13 42.22 @ Encamp 3 495 51.07% Penya Encarnada 0 430 31.33% 17.61%
10 2017-10-22 41.25 @ UE Engordany 4 780 45.05% Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 759 37.28% 17.67%
11 2017-09-17 41.15 Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 700 27.04% @ Encamp 1 801 55.44% 17.52%
12 2017-10-22 40.66 @ Sant Julia 18 984 79.82% Penya Encarnada 0 540 4.99% 15.19%
13 2017-12-14 39.82 Lusitanos 6 913 68.83% @ Encamp 0 662 14.29% 16.89%
14 2017-09-24 39.62 @ UE Engordany 2 724 37.04% Encamp 0 760 45.30% 17.66%
15 2018-02-18 39.16 @ UE Engordany 3 1014 53.74% Lusitanos 0 927 28.70% 17.56%
16 2018-05-06 38.28 @ Lusitanos 2 992 38.83% Sant Julia 0 1015 43.49% 17.67%
17 2018-04-22 37.73 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 791 31.93% UE Santa Coloma 1 865 50.46% 17.61%
18 2018-04-15 36.82 Penya Encarnada 1 399 3.66% @ UE Santa Coloma 0 902 81.76% 14.58%
19 2017-12-10 35.49 @ UE Santa Coloma 5 923 67.86% Encamp 0 697 15.18% 16.96%
20 2018-04-08 34.15 Penya Encarnada 2 365 4.74% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 819 80.17% 15.09%
21 2018-04-22 33.95 @ Lusitanos 4 987 31.61% UE Engordany 2 1063 50.78% 17.61%
22 2017-10-15 30.71 UE Engordany 3 749 8.19% @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1098 75.74% 16.07%
23 2018-04-28 28.69 @ FC Santa Coloma 4 1145 58.12% Lusitanos 1 1020 24.44% 17.45%
24 2017-10-29 28.48 UE Engordany 6 821 73.53% @ Penya Encarnada 0 500 10.07% 16.40%
25 2017-09-24 27.50 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 741 53.07% Penya Encarnada 0 660 29.36% 17.57%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-10-15 58.6 UE Engordany 3 749 8.19% @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1098 75.74% 16.07%
2 2018-01-28 57.6 @ Penya Encarnada 2 374 2.68% Lusitanos 2 949 83.38% 13.94%
3 2018-05-06 57.0 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 841 75.84% Encamp 2 490 8.10% 16.05%
4 2017-11-26 56.6 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 789 24.39% UE Santa Coloma 2 926 58.17% 17.45%
5 2017-10-22 56.5 @ Lusitanos 2 1012 34.31% FC Santa Coloma 2 1067 48.04% 17.64%
6 2018-04-08 56.5 Penya Encarnada 2 365 4.74% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 819 80.17% 15.09%
7 2018-02-25 54.4 @ Penya Encarnada 1 363 3.10% UE Santa Coloma 1 910 82.66% 14.24%
8 2018-04-15 53.9 Penya Encarnada 1 399 3.66% @ UE Santa Coloma 0 902 81.76% 14.58%
9 2017-11-05 53.7 @ Sant Julia 1 1023 72.56% Encamp 1 730 10.92% 16.52%
10 2017-10-01 53.5 @ Sant Julia 1 967 24.69% FC Santa Coloma 1 1102 57.86% 17.45%
11 2017-12-10 53.5 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 791 19.09% UE Engordany 1 982 63.69% 17.22%
12 2017-12-17 53.5 @ Lusitanos 1 953 61.59% Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 796 21.09% 17.32%
13 2018-02-25 53.5 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1145 54.36% UE Engordany 1 1053 28.10% 17.55%
14 2018-03-18 53.5 @ UE Engordany 1 1066 63.99% UE Santa Coloma 1 884 18.80% 17.21%
15 2017-10-29 53.4 @ UE Santa Coloma 1 944 31.00% Sant Julia 1 1025 51.40% 17.60%
16 2018-02-11 53.4 @ Lusitanos 1 925 32.43% Sant Julia 1 995 49.95% 17.62%
17 2018-04-15 53.2 Lusitanos 3 964 26.29% @ Sant Julia 2 1071 56.21% 17.50%
18 2018-05-13 52.3 @ Sant Julia 2 976 18.92% FC Santa Coloma 1 1169 63.86% 17.21%
19 2018-02-18 51.6 @ Sant Julia 3 993 18.37% FC Santa Coloma 1 1192 64.45% 17.18%
20 2017-09-17 50.9 @ Sant Julia 0 950 68.39% UE Engordany 0 717 14.68% 16.92%
21 2017-10-01 50.8 @ UE Santa Coloma 0 909 59.88% Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 769 22.74% 17.39%
22 2017-12-17 50.8 UE Santa Coloma 3 959 34.41% @ Sant Julia 2 1001 47.94% 17.64%
23 2018-05-06 50.8 @ FC Santa Coloma 0 1173 58.21% UE Engordany 0 1048 24.34% 17.44%
24 2018-02-04 50.7 @ Sant Julia 0 995 43.01% UE Engordany 0 989 39.31% 17.67%
25 2018-05-13 50.7 @ UE Engordany 0 1052 45.23% Lusitanos 0 1030 37.11% 17.66%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-11-12 24.7 @ FC Santa Coloma 7 1101 85.23% Penya Encarnada 0 460 1.75% 13.03%
2 2017-11-05 25.6 @ Lusitanos 12 1024 83.17% Penya Encarnada 1 471 2.80% 14.03%
3 2017-10-22 26.0 @ Sant Julia 18 984 79.82% Penya Encarnada 0 540 4.99% 15.19%
4 2018-02-04 26.5 FC Santa Coloma 3 1174 87.79% @ Penya Encarnada 0 381 0.83% 11.38%
5 2018-03-11 26.6 FC Santa Coloma 5 1084 82.05% @ Encamp 0 559 3.48% 14.48%
6 2017-12-10 26.7 Sant Julia 4 997 84.30% @ Penya Encarnada 0 385 2.19% 13.51%
7 2018-03-18 26.9 @ Sant Julia 9 1082 82.59% Encamp 1 550 3.14% 14.27%
8 2017-09-17 27.5 FC Santa Coloma 6 1071 77.19% @ Penya Encarnada 0 679 7.00% 15.81%
9 2018-02-11 27.5 @ UE Engordany 11 989 77.90% Encamp 1 594 6.44% 15.66%
10 2018-01-14 27.8 @ UE Santa Coloma 7 979 84.30% Penya Encarnada 1 379 2.19% 13.51%
11 2018-03-11 28.1 UE Engordany 2 1064 86.03% @ Penya Encarnada 0 370 1.41% 12.56%
12 2018-05-06 28.1 UE Santa Coloma 5 837 77.11% @ Penya Encarnada 0 447 7.07% 15.82%
13 2017-11-19 28.5 Inter Club d'Escaldes 8 745 71.62% @ Penya Encarnada 0 454 11.75% 16.62%
14 2017-10-29 28.6 UE Engordany 6 821 73.53% @ Penya Encarnada 0 500 10.07% 16.40%
15 2018-03-18 28.6 @ Lusitanos 6 973 84.40% Penya Encarnada 1 369 2.14% 13.46%
16 2017-12-17 29.1 @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1163 82.85% Encamp 0 622 2.99% 14.17%
17 2018-03-04 29.1 @ Sant Julia 5 1058 86.12% Penya Encarnada 1 372 1.38% 12.50%
18 2018-02-11 29.2 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 804 79.05% Penya Encarnada 0 380 5.56% 15.39%
19 2017-10-15 29.5 UE Santa Coloma 4 904 74.97% @ Penya Encarnada 0 557 8.84% 16.19%
20 2017-11-05 29.6 @ FC Santa Coloma 3 1091 77.45% Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 706 6.79% 15.75%
21 2017-12-17 29.8 @ UE Engordany 1 967 83.99% Penya Encarnada 0 381 2.35% 13.66%
22 2017-12-14 30.0 Lusitanos 6 913 68.83% @ Encamp 0 662 14.29% 16.89%
23 2018-04-29 30.0 Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 829 76.19% @ Penya Encarnada 0 458 7.82% 15.99%
24 2018-04-08 30.4 UE Santa Coloma 3 889 75.03% @ Encamp 0 541 8.79% 16.19%
25 2017-12-10 30.8 @ UE Santa Coloma 5 923 67.86% Encamp 0 697 15.18% 16.96%