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2018-19 Primera Divisió Season

108 games

Final

Champion

FC Santa Coloma

54 points · 12th Title

Last Title: 2017-18

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Encamp

4.51 points above expected

20 points · 15.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lusitanos

3.80 points below expected

21 points · 24.80 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sant Julia 21 13 6 2 45 40 16 +24 40.77 +4.23
2 FC Santa Coloma 21 12 7 2 43 31 11 +20 40.25 +2.75
3 Inter Club d'Escaldes 21 12 4 5 40 30 21 +9 28.95 +11.05
4 UE Engordany 21 8 7 6 31 26 24 +2 30.59 +0.41
5 Ordino 21 7 2 12 23 27 29 -2 22.78 +0.22
6 UE Santa Coloma 21 5 6 10 21 24 28 -4 28.15 -7.15
7 Lusitanos 21 5 4 12 19 20 38 -18 27.63 -8.63
8 Encamp 21 2 4 15 10 16 47 -31 11.44 -1.44
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FC Santa Coloma Champion 27 15 9 3 54 40 17 +23 54.26 -0.26
2 Sant Julia 27 15 8 4 53 50 26 +24 54.41 -1.41
3 Inter Club d'Escaldes 27 15 6 6 51 39 27 +12 47.12 +3.88
4 UE Engordany 27 8 9 10 33 30 34 -4 36.15 -3.15
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ordino 27 10 3 14 33 34 36 -2 34.75 -1.75
2 UE Santa Coloma 27 8 8 11 32 32 31 +1 30.92 +1.08
3 Lusitanos 27 5 6 16 21 21 46 -25 24.80 -3.80
4 Encamp 27 5 5 17 20 24 53 -29 15.49 +4.51

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Encamp 20 15.49 +4.51
2 Inter Club d'Escaldes 51 47.12 +3.88
3 UE Santa Coloma 32 30.92 +1.08
4 FC Santa Coloma 54 54.26 -0.26
5 Sant Julia 53 54.41 -1.41

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lusitanos 21 24.80 -3.80
2 UE Engordany 33 36.15 -3.15
3 Ordino 33 34.75 -1.75
4 Sant Julia 53 54.41 -1.41
5 FC Santa Coloma 54 54.26 -0.26

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 Dec 9 – Feb 3 1 in 32
2 Ordino 3 Mar 10 – Mar 31 1 in 29
3 Encamp 2 May 11 – May 19 1 in 16
4 FC Santa Coloma 4 Nov 4 – Dec 2 1 in 13
5 UE Engordany 3 Oct 25 – Nov 4 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lusitanos 9 Dec 16 – Mar 31 1 in 7,518
2 UE Santa Coloma 4 Nov 25 – Dec 15 1 in 46
3 Encamp 9 Sep 30 – Dec 9 1 in 44
4 Sant Julia 2 Mar 3 – Mar 10 1 in 19
5 Ordino 4 Feb 10 – Mar 3 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inter Club d'Escaldes 10 Feb 17 – May 1 1 in 55
2 FC Santa Coloma 19 Nov 4 – May 4 1 in 45
3 Sant Julia 16 Sep 16 – Feb 24 1 in 44
4 UE Engordany 8 Sep 23 – Nov 25 1 in 42
5 Encamp 2 Feb 17 – Feb 24 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lusitanos 16 Dec 16 – May 19 1 in 180
2 UE Engordany 10 Mar 10 – May 19 1 in 27
3 UE Santa Coloma 5 Nov 25 – Feb 3 1 in 6
4 FC Santa Coloma 3 Oct 7 – Oct 28 1 in 6
5 Sant Julia 3 Apr 14 – May 1 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
FC Santa Coloma 1261 54 +4 8 9.2 -1.2
Sant Julia 1150 53 +26 8 7.1 +0.9
Inter Club d'Escaldes 1163 51 +18 8 7.3 +0.7
Ordino 855 33 -106 7 9.7 -2.7
UE Engordany 956 33 -48 2 3.8 -1.8
UE Santa Coloma 934 32 +89 11 8.3 +2.7
Lusitanos 653 21 -50 2 4.0 -2.0
Encamp 803 20 +66 7 5.4 +1.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ENC FSC ICD LUS ORD SJ UE USC
Encamp —
0-0-3
1.20
0-1-2
1.57
2-2-1
5.08
2-0-3
3.33
0-0-3
0.97
0-1-2
1.70
1-1-3
3.63
FC Santa Coloma
3-0-0
7.16
 —
1-2-2
9.39
2-1-0
5.26
3-0-0
6.15
2-3-0
7.32
3-2-0
10.12
1-1-1
6.33
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2-1-0
6.73
2-2-1
4.32
 —
3-0-0
4.09
3-0-0
4.52
2-0-3
4.99
1-2-2
8.88
2-1-0
4.16
Lusitanos
1-2-2
8.67
0-1-2
2.97
0-0-3
4.19
 —
2-0-3
6.40
0-0-3
2.34
1-1-1
3.57
1-2-2
4.95
Ordino
3-0-2
10.43
0-0-3
2.12
0-0-3
3.70
3-0-2
7.33
 —
0-2-1
1.75
2-0-1
2.87
2-1-2
6.25
Sant Julia
3-0-0
7.44
0-3-2
6.36
3-0-2
8.71
3-0-0
5.93
1-2-0
6.54
 —
3-2-0
8.73
2-1-0
6.14
UE Engordany
2-1-0
6.59
0-2-3
3.62
2-2-1
4.83
1-1-1
4.65
1-0-2
5.35
0-2-3
4.98
 —
2-1-0
4.15
UE Santa Coloma
3-1-1
10.11
1-1-1
1.95
0-1-2
4.05
2-2-1
8.77
2-1-2
7.43
0-1-2
2.11
0-1-2
4.06
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +13.7
Allowed 0.85 -11.1
Differential 0.94 +6.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.26%8.80%5.56%3.70%0.93%1.39%29.63%
18.80%13.89%8.33%4.63%1.39%0.46%37.50%
25.56%8.33%1.85%1.39%0.93%—18.06%
33.70%4.63%1.39%———9.72%
40.93%1.39%0.93%———3.24%
5+1.39%0.46%————1.85%
Total29.63%37.50%18.06%9.72%3.24%1.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.25 +0.00
SD 1.18 1.18 1.82
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 108

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.81%7.41%11.11%3.70%3.70%40.74%
17.41%14.81%3.70%11.11%——37.04%
23.70%3.70%3.70%—7.41%—18.52%
3———————
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+———————
Total11.11%37.04%14.81%22.22%11.11%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.96 -1.07
SD 0.97 1.37 1.82
CV 1.10 0.70 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%3.70%————18.52%
111.11%18.52%7.41%———37.04%
214.81%11.11%————25.93%
33.70%11.11%————14.81%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+———————
Total44.44%48.15%7.41%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 0.63 +0.85
SD 1.09 0.63 1.17
CV 0.73 1.00 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%7.41%3.70%3.70%——18.52%
111.11%18.52%—3.70%——33.33%
27.41%22.22%—3.70%——33.33%
33.70%11.11%————14.81%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.93%59.26%3.70%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.00 +0.44
SD 0.97 0.88 1.42
CV 0.67 0.88 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%14.81%7.41%11.11%—7.41%51.85%
13.70%11.11%11.11%—3.70%3.70%33.33%
23.70%—————3.70%
33.70%3.70%————7.41%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+———————
Total25.93%29.63%18.52%11.11%3.70%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.70 -0.93
SD 1.09 1.61 2.22
CV 1.40 0.95 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%18.52%7.41%———33.33%
17.41%3.70%11.11%11.11%3.70%—37.04%
2—11.11%————11.11%
33.70%3.70%3.70%———11.11%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+—3.70%————3.70%
Total22.22%40.74%22.22%11.11%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 1.33 -0.07
SD 1.35 1.07 1.84
CV 1.07 0.81 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%—7.41%———14.81%
111.11%18.52%3.70%3.70%——37.04%
23.70%7.41%3.70%———14.81%
311.11%3.70%3.70%———18.52%
4—3.70%7.41%———11.11%
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total37.04%33.33%25.93%3.70%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.85 0.96 +0.89
SD 1.41 0.90 1.69
CV 0.76 0.93 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%7.41%7.41%3.70%3.70%—33.33%
111.11%14.81%11.11%—3.70%—40.74%
23.70%3.70%7.41%———14.81%
33.70%—3.70%———7.41%
4———————
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total33.33%25.93%29.63%3.70%7.41%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.26 -0.15
SD 1.19 1.20 1.85
CV 1.07 0.95 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.52%3.70%3.70%———25.93%
17.41%11.11%18.52%7.41%——44.44%
27.41%7.41%—7.41%——22.22%
3—3.70%————3.70%
4———————
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total37.04%25.93%22.22%14.81%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.15 +0.04
SD 1.11 1.10 1.53
CV 0.94 0.96 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FC Santa Coloma 1261 54 40.25 +13.75 76.0% 27 33 37 40 43 49 52
Inter Club d'Escaldes 1163 51 28.95 +22.05 99.0% 13 21 26 29 32 37 41
Sant Julia 1150 53 40.77 +12.23 82.0% 25 32 38 41 44 49 52
UE Engordany 956 33 30.59 +2.41 59.0% 17 21 27 30 34 40 45
UE Santa Coloma 934 32 28.15 +3.85 7.0% 14 20 24 28 31 37 44
Ordino 855 33 22.78 +10.22 56.0% 10 16 19 22 26 32 36
Encamp 803 20 11.44 +8.56 42.0% 3 7 9 11 14 17 23
Lusitanos 653 21 27.63 -6.63 8.0% 13 19 24 28 31 37 40

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -2.5% * Slight Edge: -2.5% to 0% * Clear Edge: 0% to 6% * Strong Edge: 6% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.33%
Strong Edge
41.67%25.00%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 29.02 Elo pts.
263 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.22 goals
Neutral
-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
43%
FC Santa Coloma, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.04/gm
Photo Finish
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.02 * Some Luck: 4.02 to 6.02 * Lucky: 6.02 to 8.03 * Wild Swing: 8.03 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.75 * Close: 0.75 to 1.12 * Off: 1.12 to 1.5 * Way Off: 1.5 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.87 points
Some Luck
05.0213
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
00.942
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
99.00%
Inter Club d'Escaldes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
7.00%
UE Santa Coloma
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.1 * Moderate Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Strong Separation: 2.35 to 2.5 * Wide Separation: 2.5 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 83.5% * Slight Edge: 83.5% to 89% * Clear Edge: 89% to 94% * Wide Edge: 94% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98.5% * Strong Edge: 98.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 40.5% * Some Drama: 40.5% to 45.5% * Frequent: 45.5% to 53% * Very Frequent: 53% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 28% * Occasional: 28% to 33.5% * Frequent: 33.5% to 41.5% * Very Frequent: 41.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Balanced
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 201.29
2.02
Coin-Flip Parity
12.12.353.25
Interquartile Edge
83%
Even
50%83.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
96%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Rare
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.49 * Slight Separation: 0.49 to 0.54 * Notable Separation: 0.54 to 0.6 * Lopsided: 0.6 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.56 * Some Carryover: 0.56 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.86 * Near-Lock: 0.86 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15.5% * Very Shaky: 15.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.49
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.31
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.46
Weak Carryover
00.560.761
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Upset-Prone
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Very Shaky
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.85
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.88
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.137
Well Within Noise
00.1610.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team12345678
FC Santa Coloma43.00%40.00%14.00%3.00%————
Sant Julia47.00%38.00%11.00%—3.00%1.00%——
Inter Club d'Escaldes2.00%4.00%27.00%22.00%22.00%17.00%5.00%1.00%
UE Engordany7.00%7.00%23.00%25.00%18.00%17.00%3.00%—
Ordino—1.00%3.00%5.00%15.00%22.00%51.00%3.00%
UE Santa Coloma—6.00%10.00%27.00%23.00%19.00%13.00%2.00%
Lusitanos1.00%4.00%12.00%18.00%19.00%22.00%23.00%1.00%
Encamp—————2.00%5.00%93.00%
Team12345678
FC Santa Coloma46.04%44.27%9.59%0.10%————
Sant Julia49.94%39.87%10.10%0.09%————
Inter Club d'Escaldes4.01%15.74%77.43%2.82%————
UE Engordany0.01%0.12%2.88%96.99%————
Ordino————73.77%23.30%2.92%0.01%
UE Santa Coloma————23.97%62.37%13.40%0.26%
Lusitanos————2.25%14.11%79.30%4.34%
Encamp————0.01%0.22%4.38%95.39%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
FC Santa Coloma 100% — —
Inter Club d'Escaldes 97.00% 3.00% —
Sant Julia 100% — —
UE Engordany 96.00% 4.00% —
UE Santa Coloma 85.00% 13.00% 2.00%
Lusitanos 62.00% 35.00% 3.00%
Ordino 60.00% 37.00% 3.00%
Encamp — 8.00% 92.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
FC Santa Coloma 100% — —
Inter Club d'Escaldes 100% — —
Sant Julia 100% — —
UE Engordany 100% — —
Ordino 97.07% 2.92% 0.01%
UE Santa Coloma 86.34% 13.40% 0.26%
Lusitanos 16.36% 79.30% 4.34%
Encamp 0.23% 4.38% 95.39%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-09-16 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-251.7 947 879 49.50% 26.18% 24.33%+0.37 -29.5 0
2018-09-16 @ Ordino W 2-151.7 879 947 24.33% 26.18% 49.50%-0.37 +29.5 3
2018-09-16 Lusitanos D 0-048.1 1078 1026 47.56% 26.28% 26.17%+0.31 -3.2 1
2018-09-16 @ FC Santa Coloma D 0-048.1 1026 1078 26.17% 26.28% 47.56%-0.31 +3.2 1
2018-09-16 Sant Julia L 1-444.4 1035 1012 43.95% 26.41% 29.64%+0.20 -65.3 0
2018-09-16 @ UE Engordany W 4-144.4 1012 1035 29.64% 26.41% 43.95%-0.20 +65.3 3
2018-09-16 UE Santa Coloma L 0-136.2 807 990 18.58% 25.67% 55.75%-0.59 -14.4 0
2018-09-16 @ Encamp W 1-036.2 990 807 55.75% 25.67% 18.58%+0.59 +14.4 3
2018-09-23 Encamp D 1-153.8 1029 793 65.11% 24.13% 10.77%+1.01 -8.2 2
2018-09-23 @ Lusitanos D 1-153.8 793 1029 10.77% 24.13% 65.11%-1.01 +8.2 1
2018-09-23 FC Santa Coloma W 1-046.8 909 1074 20.17% 25.85% 53.99%-0.52 +33.8 6
2018-09-23 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-146.8 1074 909 53.99% 25.85% 20.17%+0.52 -33.8 1
2018-09-23 Ordino D 1-153.4 1078 917 59.11% 25.26% 15.64%+0.72 -6.3 4
2018-09-23 @ Sant Julia D 1-153.4 917 1078 15.64% 25.26% 59.11%-0.72 +6.3 1
2018-09-23 UE Engordany D 0-048.0 1005 970 45.43% 26.36% 28.21%+0.24 -2.6 4
2018-09-23 @ UE Santa Coloma D 0-048.0 970 1005 28.21% 26.36% 45.43%-0.24 +2.6 1
2018-09-30 Encamp W 3-028.5 1040 801 65.31% 24.08% 10.61%+1.02 +23.7 4
2018-09-30 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-328.5 801 1040 10.61% 24.08% 65.31%-1.02 -23.7 1
2018-09-30 Lusitanos D 1-153.1 973 1021 34.01% 26.49% 39.50%-0.07 +0.7 2
2018-09-30 @ UE Engordany D 1-153.1 1021 973 39.50% 26.49% 34.01%+0.07 -0.7 3
2018-09-30 Sant Julia L 0-137.9 942 1071 23.95% 26.15% 49.90%-0.38 -17.7 6
2018-09-30 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 1-037.9 1071 942 49.90% 26.15% 23.95%+0.38 +17.7 7
2018-09-30 UE Santa Coloma W 2-150.0 923 1002 29.96% 26.42% 43.62%-0.19 +26.5 4
2018-09-30 @ Ordino L 1-250.0 1002 923 43.62% 26.42% 29.96%+0.19 -26.5 4
2018-10-07 FC Santa Coloma D 1-153.1 1089 1064 44.17% 26.40% 29.42%+0.20 -2.0 8
2018-10-07 @ Sant Julia D 1-153.1 1064 1089 29.42% 26.40% 44.17%-0.20 +2.0 5
2018-10-07 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-153.1 976 925 47.50% 26.28% 26.22%+0.30 -2.9 5
2018-10-07 @ UE Santa Coloma D 1-153.1 925 976 26.22% 26.28% 47.50%-0.30 +2.9 7
2018-10-07 Ordino W 1-037.9 1020 950 49.85% 26.15% 23.99%+0.38 +17.7 6
2018-10-07 @ Lusitanos L 0-137.9 950 1020 23.99% 26.15% 49.85%-0.38 -17.7 4
2018-10-21 Encamp W 3-138.5 932 777 58.58% 25.33% 16.09%+0.70 +20.7 7
2018-10-21 @ Ordino L 1-338.5 777 932 16.09% 25.33% 58.58%-0.70 -20.7 1
2018-10-21 Lusitanos W 2-151.2 927 1038 26.03% 26.27% 47.71%-0.31 +28.5 10
2018-10-21 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-251.2 1038 927 47.71% 26.27% 26.03%+0.31 -28.6 6
2018-10-21 UE Engordany D 0-048.2 1066 973 52.37% 25.98% 21.65%+0.46 -4.8 6
2018-10-21 @ FC Santa Coloma D 0-048.2 973 1066 21.65% 25.98% 52.37%-0.46 +4.8 3
2018-10-21 UE Santa Coloma D 1-153.3 1087 973 54.67% 25.78% 19.54%+0.55 -5.0 9
2018-10-21 @ Sant Julia D 1-153.3 973 1087 19.54% 25.78% 54.67%-0.55 +5.0 6
2018-10-25 UE Engordany L 0-135.1 757 978 15.41% 25.22% 59.37%-0.73 -12.2 1
2018-10-25 @ Encamp W 1-035.1 978 757 59.37% 25.22% 15.41%+0.73 +12.2 6
2018-10-28 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-232.3 745 956 16.18% 25.35% 58.47%-0.69 -24.0 1
2018-10-28 @ Encamp W 2-032.3 956 745 58.47% 25.35% 16.18%+0.69 +24.0 13
2018-10-28 Ordino W 1-039.1 990 953 45.82% 26.35% 27.83%+0.25 +19.9 9
2018-10-28 @ UE Engordany L 0-139.1 953 990 27.83% 26.35% 45.82%-0.25 -19.9 7
2018-10-28 Sant Julia L 0-140.1 1010 1082 30.77% 26.44% 42.79%-0.17 -21.5 6
2018-10-28 @ Lusitanos W 1-040.1 1082 1010 42.79% 26.44% 30.77%+0.17 +21.5 12
2018-10-28 UE Santa Coloma L 1-252.3 1061 978 51.36% 26.06% 22.58%+0.43 -30.5 6
2018-10-28 @ FC Santa Coloma W 2-152.3 978 1061 22.58% 26.06% 51.36%-0.43 +30.5 9
2018-11-04 Encamp W 4-237.7 1104 721 73.55% 21.23% 5.22%+1.57 +6.1 15
2018-11-04 @ Sant Julia L 2-437.7 721 1104 5.22% 21.23% 73.55%-1.57 -6.1 1
2018-11-04 FC Santa Coloma L 0-236.0 933 1031 27.55% 26.34% 46.12%-0.26 -37.3 7
2018-11-04 @ Ordino W 2-036.0 1031 933 46.12% 26.34% 27.55%+0.26 +37.3 9
2018-11-04 Lusitanos L 0-240.9 1008 988 43.55% 26.42% 30.03%+0.19 -52.9 9
2018-11-04 @ UE Santa Coloma W 2-040.9 988 1008 30.03% 26.42% 43.55%-0.19 +52.9 9
2018-11-04 UE Engordany L 0-238.8 980 1010 36.56% 26.51% 36.93%+0.00 -46.2 13
2018-11-04 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 2-038.8 1010 980 36.93% 26.51% 36.56%+0.00 +46.2 12
2018-11-11 Encamp W 5-028.6 955 714 65.42% 24.05% 10.53%+1.03 +37.9 12
2018-11-11 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-528.6 714 955 10.53% 24.05% 65.42%-1.03 -37.9 1
2018-11-11 FC Santa Coloma L 1-442.4 1041 1068 37.01% 26.51% 36.48%+0.01 -57.1 9
2018-11-11 @ Lusitanos W 4-142.4 1068 1041 36.48% 26.51% 37.01%-0.01 +57.1 12
2018-11-11 Ordino W 2-145.3 934 896 45.91% 26.35% 27.75%+0.26 +18.8 16
2018-11-11 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-245.3 896 934 27.75% 26.35% 45.91%-0.26 -18.8 7
2018-11-11 UE Engordany D 1-153.1 1110 1057 47.77% 26.27% 25.97%+0.31 -2.9 16
2018-11-11 @ Sant Julia D 1-153.1 1057 1110 25.97% 26.27% 47.77%-0.31 +3.0 13
2018-11-25 Inter Club d'Escaldes W 3-138.0 1125 953 60.17% 25.10% 14.73%+0.77 +19.2 15
2018-11-25 @ FC Santa Coloma L 1-338.0 953 1125 14.73% 25.10% 60.17%-0.77 -19.2 16
2018-11-25 Lusitanos L 0-328.3 677 984 10.09% 23.91% 66.00%-1.06 -22.6 1
2018-11-25 @ Encamp W 3-028.3 984 677 66.00% 23.91% 10.09%+1.06 +22.6 12
2018-11-25 Sant Julia D 0-048.4 877 1107 14.79% 25.11% 60.10%-0.76 +7.4 8
2018-11-25 @ Ordino D 0-048.4 1107 877 60.10% 25.11% 14.79%+0.76 -7.4 17
2018-11-25 UE Santa Coloma W 2-144.2 1060 993 49.37% 26.18% 24.45%+0.36 +17.0 16
2018-11-25 @ UE Engordany L 1-244.2 993 1060 24.45% 26.18% 49.37%-0.36 -17.0 12
2018-12-02 FC Santa Coloma L 1-333.3 654 1144 4.09% 20.11% 75.79%-1.75 -5.3 1
2018-12-02 @ Encamp W 3-133.3 1144 654 75.79% 20.11% 4.09%+1.75 +5.3 18
2018-12-02 Inter Club d'Escaldes W 3-030.2 1099 933 59.59% 25.19% 15.23%+0.74 +33.1 20
2018-12-02 @ Sant Julia L 0-330.2 933 1099 15.23% 25.19% 59.59%-0.74 -33.1 16
2018-12-02 Ordino L 2-357.7 976 884 52.28% 25.99% 21.73%+0.46 -29.4 12
2018-12-02 @ UE Santa Coloma W 3-257.7 884 976 21.73% 25.99% 52.28%-0.46 +29.4 11
2018-12-02 UE Engordany W 4-038.5 1006 1077 31.08% 26.45% 42.47%-0.16 +98.4 15
2018-12-02 @ Lusitanos L 0-438.5 1077 1006 42.47% 26.45% 31.08%+0.16 -98.4 16
2018-12-09 Encamp W 3-026.8 978 649 70.83% 22.37% 6.79%+1.36 +15.2 19
2018-12-09 @ UE Engordany L 0-326.8 649 978 6.79% 22.37% 70.83%-1.36 -15.2 1
2018-12-09 Lusitanos L 1-339.1 914 1105 17.86% 25.58% 56.56%-0.62 -22.7 11
2018-12-09 @ Ordino W 3-139.1 1105 914 56.56% 25.58% 17.86%+0.62 +22.7 18
2018-12-09 Sant Julia D 0-048.1 1150 1132 43.17% 26.43% 30.40%+0.18 -1.9 19
2018-12-09 @ FC Santa Coloma D 0-048.1 1132 1150 30.40% 26.43% 43.17%-0.18 +1.9 21
2018-12-09 UE Santa Coloma W 1-042.6 900 947 34.28% 26.50% 39.22%-0.07 +25.8 19
2018-12-09 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-142.6 947 900 39.22% 26.50% 34.28%+0.07 -25.8 12
2018-12-15 Sant Julia L 1-338.5 921 1134 16.03% 25.32% 58.65%-0.70 -20.7 12
2018-12-15 @ UE Santa Coloma W 3-138.5 1134 921 58.65% 25.32% 16.03%+0.70 +20.7 24
2018-12-16 FC Santa Coloma L 0-234.0 993 1148 21.27% 25.95% 52.78%-0.48 -30.3 19
2018-12-16 @ UE Engordany W 2-034.0 1148 993 52.78% 25.95% 21.27%+0.48 +30.3 22
2018-12-16 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-344.3 1127 926 62.51% 24.69% 12.80%+0.88 -106.5 18
2018-12-16 @ Lusitanos W 3-044.3 926 1127 12.80% 24.69% 62.51%-0.88 +106.5 22
2018-12-16 Ordino W 2-046.0 633 891 12.92% 24.72% 62.37%-0.87 +73.1 4
2018-12-16 @ Encamp L 0-246.0 891 633 62.37% 24.72% 12.92%+0.87 -73.1 11
2019-02-03 Encamp W 3-134.8 1033 707 70.65% 22.44% 6.91%+1.35 +9.2 25
2019-02-03 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-334.8 707 1033 6.91% 22.44% 70.65%-1.35 -9.2 4
2019-02-03 FC Santa Coloma D 0-048.6 900 1178 11.68% 24.40% 63.92%-0.95 +8.7 13
2019-02-03 @ UE Santa Coloma D 0-048.6 1178 900 63.92% 24.40% 11.68%+0.95 -8.7 23
2019-02-03 Lusitanos W 5-031.3 1155 1021 56.64% 25.57% 17.78%+0.62 +61.0 27
2019-02-03 @ Sant Julia L 0-531.3 1021 1155 17.78% 25.57% 56.64%-0.62 -61.0 18
2019-02-03 UE Engordany W 2-152.4 818 963 22.22% 26.03% 51.75%-0.44 +30.7 14
2019-02-03 @ Ordino L 1-252.4 963 818 51.75% 26.03% 22.22%+0.44 -30.7 19
2019-02-10 Inter Club d'Escaldes W 1-045.0 932 1042 26.16% 26.28% 47.56%-0.31 +30.2 22
2019-02-10 @ UE Engordany L 0-145.0 1042 932 47.56% 26.28% 26.16%+0.31 -30.2 25
2019-02-10 Ordino W 1-031.8 1169 848 70.37% 22.55% 7.09%+1.33 +5.8 26
2019-02-10 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-131.8 848 1169 7.09% 22.55% 70.37%-1.33 -5.8 14
2019-02-10 Sant Julia L 1-235.9 697 1216 3.56% 19.46% 76.97%-1.86 -2.6 4
2019-02-10 @ Encamp W 2-135.9 1216 697 76.97% 19.46% 3.56%+1.86 +2.6 30
2019-02-10 UE Santa Coloma L 1-251.2 960 909 47.50% 26.28% 26.22%+0.30 -28.4 18
2019-02-10 @ Lusitanos W 2-151.2 909 960 26.22% 26.28% 47.50%-0.30 +28.5 16
2019-02-17 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-339.7 843 1012 19.86% 25.82% 54.32%-0.53 -24.8 14
2019-02-17 @ Ordino W 3-139.7 1012 843 54.32% 25.82% 19.86%+0.53 +24.8 28
2019-02-17 Lusitanos W 2-030.2 1175 932 65.61% 24.00% 10.38%+1.04 +16.0 29
2019-02-17 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-230.2 932 1175 10.38% 24.00% 65.61%-1.04 -16.0 18
2019-02-17 Sant Julia L 0-231.2 963 1219 13.00% 24.74% 62.26%-0.86 -19.8 22
2019-02-17 @ UE Engordany W 2-031.2 1219 963 62.26% 24.74% 13.00%+0.86 +19.8 33
2019-02-17 UE Santa Coloma D 1-153.5 695 937 13.89% 24.93% 61.18%-0.81 +7.0 5
2019-02-17 @ Encamp D 1-153.5 937 695 61.18% 24.93% 13.89%+0.81 -7.0 17
2019-02-24 Encamp L 0-149.3 916 702 63.48% 24.49% 12.03%+0.92 -39.5 18
2019-02-24 @ Lusitanos W 1-049.3 702 916 12.03% 24.49% 63.48%-0.92 +39.5 8
2019-02-24 FC Santa Coloma D 1-153.3 1036 1191 21.25% 25.95% 52.81%-0.48 +4.4 29
2019-02-24 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-153.3 1191 1036 52.81% 25.95% 21.25%+0.48 -4.4 30
2019-02-24 Ordino W 1-030.3 1238 818 75.27% 20.39% 4.34%+1.71 +3.4 36
2019-02-24 @ Sant Julia L 0-130.3 818 1238 4.34% 20.39% 75.27%-1.71 -3.4 14
2019-02-24 UE Engordany L 2-353.9 931 943 39.13% 26.50% 34.37%+0.06 -23.1 17
2019-02-24 @ UE Santa Coloma W 3-253.9 943 931 34.37% 26.50% 39.13%-0.06 +23.1 25
2019-03-03 Encamp W 1-030.0 1187 741 76.35% 19.81% 3.84%+1.80 +3.0 33
2019-03-03 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-130.0 741 1187 3.84% 19.81% 76.35%-1.80 -3.0 8
2019-03-03 Lusitanos W 5-032.7 966 876 52.04% 26.01% 21.95%+0.45 +72.8 28
2019-03-03 @ UE Engordany L 0-532.7 876 966 21.95% 26.01% 52.04%-0.45 -72.8 18
2019-03-03 Sant Julia W 2-154.0 1041 1242 17.03% 25.47% 57.49%-0.65 +33.8 32
2019-03-03 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-254.0 1242 1041 57.49% 25.47% 17.03%+0.65 -33.8 36
2019-03-03 UE Santa Coloma L 0-139.2 814 907 28.15% 26.36% 45.49%-0.24 -20.1 14
2019-03-03 @ Ordino W 1-039.2 907 814 45.49% 26.36% 28.15%+0.24 +20.1 20
2019-03-10 FC Santa Coloma L 0-241.0 1208 1190 43.30% 26.43% 30.27%+0.18 -52.7 36
2019-03-10 @ Sant Julia W 2-041.0 1190 1208 30.27% 26.43% 43.30%-0.18 +52.7 36
2019-03-10 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-340.5 928 1075 22.02% 26.01% 51.97%-0.45 -27.0 20
2019-03-10 @ UE Santa Coloma W 3-140.5 1075 928 51.97% 26.01% 22.02%+0.45 +27.0 35
2019-03-10 Ordino L 1-542.0 803 794 42.07% 26.46% 31.48%+0.14 -81.3 18
2019-03-10 @ Lusitanos W 5-142.0 794 803 31.48% 26.46% 42.07%-0.14 +81.3 17
2019-03-10 UE Engordany D 2-260.0 738 1039 10.45% 24.03% 65.53%-1.03 +6.2 9
2019-03-10 @ Encamp D 2-260.0 1039 738 65.53% 24.03% 10.45%+1.03 -6.2 29
2019-03-17 Encamp W 4-030.9 876 744 56.38% 25.60% 18.02%+0.61 +50.1 20
2019-03-17 @ Ordino L 0-430.9 744 876 18.02% 25.60% 56.38%-0.61 -50.1 9
2019-03-17 Lusitanos W 2-137.0 1102 722 73.39% 21.30% 5.31%+1.55 +4.0 38
2019-03-17 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-237.0 722 1102 5.31% 21.30% 73.39%-1.55 -4.0 18
2019-03-17 UE Engordany D 1-153.7 1242 1032 63.19% 24.55% 12.26%+0.91 -7.6 37
2019-03-17 @ FC Santa Coloma D 1-153.7 1032 1242 12.26% 24.55% 63.19%-0.91 +7.6 30
2019-03-17 UE Santa Coloma W 2-139.1 1155 901 66.37% 23.81% 9.82%+1.08 +7.6 39
2019-03-17 @ Sant Julia L 1-239.1 901 1155 9.82% 23.81% 66.37%-1.08 -7.6 20
2019-03-31 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-154.4 694 1106 6.04% 21.87% 72.09%-1.45 +10.2 10
2019-03-31 @ Encamp D 1-154.4 1106 694 72.09% 21.87% 6.04%+1.45 -10.2 39
2019-03-31 Ordino L 1-253.2 1040 926 54.67% 25.78% 19.55%+0.54 -32.2 30
2019-03-31 @ UE Engordany W 2-153.2 926 1040 19.55% 25.78% 54.67%-0.54 +32.2 23
2019-03-31 Sant Julia L 0-326.0 718 1163 5.12% 21.14% 73.74%-1.58 -11.3 18
2019-03-31 @ Lusitanos W 3-026.0 1163 718 73.74% 21.14% 5.12%+1.58 +11.3 42
2019-03-31 UE Santa Coloma W 2-137.6 1235 893 71.49% 22.12% 6.39%+1.41 +4.9 40
2019-03-31 @ FC Santa Coloma L 1-237.6 893 1235 6.39% 22.12% 71.49%-1.41 -4.9 20
2019-04-07 Encamp W 4-236.5 1174 704 77.34% 19.25% 3.41%+1.90 +3.8 45
2019-04-07 @ Sant Julia L 2-436.5 704 1174 3.41% 19.25% 77.34%-1.90 -3.9 10
2019-04-07 FC Santa Coloma L 1-239.8 958 1240 11.45% 24.34% 64.21%-0.96 -8.8 23
2019-04-07 @ Ordino W 2-139.8 1240 958 64.21% 24.34% 11.45%+0.96 +8.8 43
2019-04-07 Lusitanos D 0-048.5 888 707 60.90% 24.98% 14.12%+0.80 -7.7 21
2019-04-07 @ UE Santa Coloma D 0-048.5 707 888 14.12% 24.98% 60.90%-0.80 +7.7 19
2019-04-07 UE Engordany D 0-048.2 1096 1008 51.83% 26.02% 22.15%+0.44 -4.6 40
2019-04-07 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes D 0-048.2 1008 1096 22.15% 26.02% 51.83%-0.44 +4.6 31

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-04-14 Encamp L 1-254.8 880 701 60.77% 25.00% 14.23%+0.79 -35.7 0
2019-04-14 @ UE Santa Coloma W 2-154.8 701 880 14.23% 25.00% 60.77%-0.79 +35.7 3
2019-04-14 Ordino L 0-134.7 714 949 14.44% 25.04% 60.52%-0.78 -11.5 0
2019-04-14 @ Lusitanos W 1-034.7 949 714 60.52% 25.04% 14.44%+0.78 +11.5 3
2019-04-14 Sant Julia W 2-041.3 1091 1178 28.89% 26.39% 44.72%-0.22 +54.1 3
2019-04-14 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-241.3 1178 1091 44.72% 26.39% 28.89%+0.22 -54.1 0
2019-04-14 UE Engordany W 2-139.6 1249 1012 65.10% 24.13% 10.77%+1.01 +8.3 3
2019-04-14 @ FC Santa Coloma L 1-239.6 1012 1249 10.77% 24.13% 65.10%-1.01 -8.3 0
2019-04-27 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-153.5 1257 1145 54.41% 25.81% 19.78%+0.54 -4.9 4
2019-04-27 @ FC Santa Coloma D 1-153.5 1145 1257 19.78% 25.81% 54.41%-0.54 +4.9 4
2019-04-28 Encamp W 1-033.6 961 736 64.26% 24.33% 11.42%+0.96 +9.3 6
2019-04-28 @ Ordino L 0-133.6 736 961 11.42% 24.33% 64.26%-0.96 -9.3 3
2019-04-28 Lusitanos W 2-032.6 845 703 57.39% 25.48% 17.12%+0.65 +25.2 3
2019-04-28 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-232.6 703 845 17.12% 25.48% 57.39%-0.65 -25.2 0
2019-04-28 Sant Julia D 2-259.3 1004 1124 24.96% 26.21% 48.82%-0.35 +2.4 1
2019-04-28 @ UE Engordany D 2-259.3 1124 1004 48.82% 26.21% 24.96%+0.35 -2.4 1
2019-05-01 Encamp D 1-153.0 678 727 33.87% 26.49% 39.64%-0.08 +0.7 1
2019-05-01 @ Lusitanos D 1-153.0 727 678 39.64% 26.49% 33.87%+0.08 -0.7 4
2019-05-01 FC Santa Coloma D 1-153.3 1122 1252 23.79% 26.14% 50.06%-0.39 +3.6 2
2019-05-01 @ Sant Julia D 1-153.3 1252 1122 50.06% 26.14% 23.79%+0.39 -3.6 5
2019-05-01 UE Engordany W 1-035.7 1150 1007 57.54% 25.47% 16.99%+0.66 +13.3 7
2019-05-01 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-135.7 1007 1150 16.99% 25.47% 57.54%-0.66 -13.3 1
2019-05-01 UE Santa Coloma D 0-048.2 970 870 53.17% 25.92% 20.91%+0.49 -5.0 7
2019-05-01 @ Ordino D 0-048.2 870 970 20.91% 25.92% 53.17%-0.49 +5.0 4
2019-05-04 FC Santa Coloma L 0-134.3 993 1248 13.07% 24.75% 62.18%-0.86 -10.5 1
2019-05-04 @ UE Engordany W 1-034.3 1248 993 62.18% 24.75% 13.07%+0.86 +10.5 8
2019-05-05 Inter Club d'Escaldes W 3-253.7 1125 1163 35.46% 26.50% 38.04%-0.03 +22.6 5
2019-05-05 @ Sant Julia L 2-353.7 1163 1125 38.04% 26.50% 35.46%+0.03 -22.6 7
2019-05-05 Lusitanos W 3-027.6 965 678 68.38% 23.22% 8.40%+1.20 +18.8 10
2019-05-05 @ Ordino L 0-327.6 678 965 8.40% 23.22% 68.38%-1.20 -18.8 1
2019-05-05 UE Santa Coloma L 0-234.2 726 875 21.85% 26.00% 52.15%-0.46 -31.0 4
2019-05-05 @ Encamp W 2-034.2 875 726 52.15% 26.00% 21.85%+0.46 +31.0 7
2019-05-11 Ordino W 4-150.0 695 984 11.08% 24.23% 64.69%-0.99 +92.8 7
2019-05-11 @ Encamp L 1-450.0 984 695 64.69% 24.23% 11.08%+0.99 -92.8 10
2019-05-11 UE Santa Coloma D 0-048.5 660 906 13.63% 24.88% 61.49%-0.83 +7.9 2
2019-05-11 @ Lusitanos D 0-048.5 906 660 61.49% 24.88% 13.63%+0.83 -7.9 8
2019-05-12 FC Santa Coloma W 2-151.7 1141 1259 25.15% 26.22% 48.62%-0.34 +29.0 10
2019-05-12 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-251.7 1259 1141 48.62% 26.22% 25.15%+0.34 -29.0 8
2019-05-12 UE Engordany W 3-030.3 1148 983 59.51% 25.20% 15.29%+0.74 +33.2 8
2019-05-12 @ Sant Julia L 0-330.3 983 1148 15.29% 25.20% 59.51%-0.74 -33.2 1
2019-05-19 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-153.4 949 1170 15.51% 25.24% 59.25%-0.73 +6.4 2
2019-05-19 @ UE Engordany D 1-153.4 1170 949 59.25% 25.24% 15.51%+0.73 -6.4 11
2019-05-19 Lusitanos W 1-036.3 788 667 55.32% 25.72% 18.96%+0.57 +14.6 10
2019-05-19 @ Encamp L 0-136.3 667 788 18.96% 25.72% 55.32%-0.57 -14.6 2
2019-05-19 Ordino W 3-143.5 898 891 41.81% 26.46% 31.73%+0.14 +36.0 11
2019-05-19 @ UE Santa Coloma L 1-343.5 891 898 31.73% 26.46% 41.81%-0.14 -36.0 10
2019-05-19 Sant Julia W 3-142.1 1230 1181 47.24% 26.29% 26.47%+0.30 +31.3 11
2019-05-19 @ FC Santa Coloma L 1-342.1 1181 1230 26.47% 26.29% 47.24%-0.30 -31.3 8

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-05-11 11.08% @ Encamp 695 4 Ordino 984 1
2 2019-02-24 12.03% Encamp 702 1 @ Lusitanos 916 0
3 2018-12-16 12.80% Inter Club d'Escaldes 926 3 @ Lusitanos 1127 0
4 2018-12-16 12.92% @ Encamp 633 2 Ordino 891 0
5 2019-04-14 14.23% Encamp 701 2 @ UE Santa Coloma 880 1
6 2019-03-03 17.03% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1041 2 Sant Julia 1242 1
7 2019-03-31 19.55% Ordino 926 2 @ UE Engordany 1040 1
8 2018-09-23 20.17% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 909 1 FC Santa Coloma 1074 0
9 2018-12-02 21.73% Ordino 884 3 @ UE Santa Coloma 976 2
10 2019-02-03 22.22% @ Ordino 818 2 UE Engordany 963 1
11 2018-10-28 22.58% UE Santa Coloma 978 2 @ FC Santa Coloma 1061 1
12 2018-09-16 24.33% Inter Club d'Escaldes 879 2 @ Ordino 947 1
13 2019-05-12 25.15% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1141 2 FC Santa Coloma 1259 1
14 2018-10-21 26.03% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 927 2 Lusitanos 1038 1
15 2019-02-10 26.16% @ UE Engordany 932 1 Inter Club d'Escaldes 1042 0
16 2019-02-10 26.22% UE Santa Coloma 909 2 @ Lusitanos 960 1
17 2019-04-14 28.89% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1091 2 Sant Julia 1178 0
18 2018-09-16 29.64% Sant Julia 1012 4 @ UE Engordany 1035 1
19 2018-09-30 29.96% @ Ordino 923 2 UE Santa Coloma 1002 1
20 2018-11-04 30.03% Lusitanos 988 2 @ UE Santa Coloma 1008 0
21 2019-03-10 30.27% FC Santa Coloma 1190 2 @ Sant Julia 1208 0
22 2018-12-02 31.08% @ Lusitanos 1006 4 UE Engordany 1077 0
23 2019-03-10 31.48% Ordino 794 5 @ Lusitanos 803 1
24 2018-12-09 34.28% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 900 1 UE Santa Coloma 947 0
25 2019-02-24 34.37% UE Engordany 943 3 @ UE Santa Coloma 931 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-12-16 106.46 Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 926 12.80% @ Lusitanos 0 1127 62.51% 24.69%
2 2018-12-02 98.36 @ Lusitanos 4 1006 31.08% UE Engordany 0 1077 42.47% 26.45%
3 2019-05-11 92.78 @ Encamp 4 695 11.08% Ordino 1 984 64.69% 24.23%
4 2019-03-10 81.34 Ordino 5 794 31.48% @ Lusitanos 1 803 42.07% 26.46%
5 2018-12-16 73.14 @ Encamp 2 633 12.92% Ordino 0 891 62.37% 24.72%
6 2019-03-03 72.79 @ UE Engordany 5 966 52.04% Lusitanos 0 876 21.95% 26.01%
7 2018-09-16 65.27 Sant Julia 4 1012 29.64% @ UE Engordany 1 1035 43.95% 26.41%
8 2019-02-03 61.02 @ Sant Julia 5 1155 56.64% Lusitanos 0 1021 17.78% 25.57%
9 2018-11-11 57.11 FC Santa Coloma 4 1068 36.48% @ Lusitanos 1 1041 37.01% 26.51%
10 2019-04-14 54.06 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1091 28.89% Sant Julia 0 1178 44.72% 26.39%
11 2018-11-04 52.90 Lusitanos 2 988 30.03% @ UE Santa Coloma 0 1008 43.55% 26.42%
12 2019-03-10 52.65 FC Santa Coloma 2 1190 30.27% @ Sant Julia 0 1208 43.30% 26.43%
13 2019-03-17 50.06 @ Ordino 4 876 56.38% Encamp 0 744 18.02% 25.60%
14 2018-11-04 46.21 UE Engordany 2 1010 36.93% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 980 36.56% 26.51%
15 2019-02-24 39.45 Encamp 1 702 12.03% @ Lusitanos 0 916 63.48% 24.49%
16 2018-11-11 37.87 @ UE Santa Coloma 5 955 65.42% Encamp 0 714 10.53% 24.05%
17 2018-11-04 37.30 FC Santa Coloma 2 1031 46.12% @ Ordino 0 933 27.55% 26.34%
18 2019-05-19 36.01 @ UE Santa Coloma 3 898 41.81% Ordino 1 891 31.73% 26.46%
19 2019-04-14 35.66 Encamp 2 701 14.23% @ UE Santa Coloma 1 880 60.77% 25.00%
20 2019-03-03 33.82 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1041 17.03% Sant Julia 1 1242 57.49% 25.47%
21 2018-09-23 33.81 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 909 20.17% FC Santa Coloma 0 1074 53.99% 25.85%
22 2019-05-12 33.22 @ Sant Julia 3 1148 59.51% UE Engordany 0 983 15.29% 25.20%
23 2018-12-02 33.09 @ Sant Julia 3 1099 59.59% Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 933 15.23% 25.19%
24 2019-03-31 32.25 Ordino 2 926 19.55% @ UE Engordany 1 1040 54.67% 25.78%
25 2019-05-19 31.32 @ FC Santa Coloma 3 1230 47.24% Sant Julia 1 1181 26.47% 26.29%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-03-10 60.0 @ Encamp 2 738 10.45% UE Engordany 2 1039 65.53% 24.03%
2 2019-04-28 59.3 @ UE Engordany 2 1004 24.96% Sant Julia 2 1124 48.82% 26.21%
3 2018-12-02 57.7 Ordino 3 884 21.73% @ UE Santa Coloma 2 976 52.28% 25.99%
4 2019-04-14 54.8 Encamp 2 701 14.23% @ UE Santa Coloma 1 880 60.77% 25.00%
5 2019-03-31 54.4 @ Encamp 1 694 6.04% Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1106 72.09% 21.87%
6 2019-03-03 54.0 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1041 17.03% Sant Julia 1 1242 57.49% 25.47%
7 2019-02-24 53.9 UE Engordany 3 943 34.37% @ UE Santa Coloma 2 931 39.13% 26.50%
8 2018-09-23 53.8 @ Lusitanos 1 1029 65.11% Encamp 1 793 10.77% 24.13%
9 2019-03-17 53.7 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1242 63.19% UE Engordany 1 1032 12.26% 24.55%
10 2019-05-05 53.7 @ Sant Julia 3 1125 35.46% Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1163 38.04% 26.50%
11 2019-02-17 53.5 @ Encamp 1 695 13.89% UE Santa Coloma 1 937 61.18% 24.93%
12 2019-04-27 53.5 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1257 54.41% Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1145 19.78% 25.81%
13 2018-09-23 53.4 @ Sant Julia 1 1078 59.11% Ordino 1 917 15.64% 25.26%
14 2019-05-19 53.4 @ UE Engordany 1 949 15.51% Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1170 59.25% 25.24%
15 2018-10-21 53.3 @ Sant Julia 1 1087 54.67% UE Santa Coloma 1 973 19.54% 25.78%
16 2019-02-24 53.3 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1036 21.25% FC Santa Coloma 1 1191 52.81% 25.95%
17 2019-05-01 53.3 @ Sant Julia 1 1122 23.79% FC Santa Coloma 1 1252 50.06% 26.14%
18 2019-03-31 53.2 Ordino 2 926 19.55% @ UE Engordany 1 1040 54.67% 25.78%
19 2018-09-30 53.1 @ UE Engordany 1 973 34.01% Lusitanos 1 1021 39.50% 26.49%
20 2018-10-07 53.1 @ Sant Julia 1 1089 44.17% FC Santa Coloma 1 1064 29.42% 26.40%
21 2018-10-07 53.1 @ UE Santa Coloma 1 976 47.50% Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 925 26.22% 26.28%
22 2018-11-11 53.1 @ Sant Julia 1 1110 47.77% UE Engordany 1 1057 25.97% 26.27%
23 2019-05-01 53.0 @ Lusitanos 1 678 33.87% Encamp 1 727 39.64% 26.49%
24 2019-02-03 52.4 @ Ordino 2 818 22.22% UE Engordany 1 963 51.75% 26.03%
25 2018-10-28 52.3 UE Santa Coloma 2 978 22.58% @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1061 51.36% 26.06%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-03-31 26.0 Sant Julia 3 1163 73.74% @ Lusitanos 0 718 5.12% 21.14%
2 2018-12-09 26.8 @ UE Engordany 3 978 70.83% Encamp 0 649 6.79% 22.37%
3 2019-05-05 27.6 @ Ordino 3 965 68.38% Lusitanos 0 678 8.40% 23.22%
4 2018-11-25 28.3 Lusitanos 3 984 66.00% @ Encamp 0 677 10.09% 23.91%
5 2018-09-30 28.5 @ FC Santa Coloma 3 1040 65.31% Encamp 0 801 10.61% 24.08%
6 2018-11-11 28.6 @ UE Santa Coloma 5 955 65.42% Encamp 0 714 10.53% 24.05%
7 2019-03-03 30.0 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1187 76.35% Encamp 0 741 3.84% 19.81%
8 2018-12-02 30.2 @ Sant Julia 3 1099 59.59% Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 933 15.23% 25.19%
9 2019-02-17 30.2 @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1175 65.61% Lusitanos 0 932 10.38% 24.00%
10 2019-02-24 30.3 @ Sant Julia 1 1238 75.27% Ordino 0 818 4.34% 20.39%
11 2019-05-12 30.3 @ Sant Julia 3 1148 59.51% UE Engordany 0 983 15.29% 25.20%
12 2019-03-17 30.9 @ Ordino 4 876 56.38% Encamp 0 744 18.02% 25.60%
13 2019-02-17 31.2 Sant Julia 2 1219 62.26% @ UE Engordany 0 963 13.00% 24.74%
14 2019-02-03 31.3 @ Sant Julia 5 1155 56.64% Lusitanos 0 1021 17.78% 25.57%
15 2019-02-10 31.8 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1169 70.37% Ordino 0 848 7.09% 22.55%
16 2018-10-28 32.3 Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 956 58.47% @ Encamp 0 745 16.18% 25.35%
17 2019-04-28 32.6 @ UE Santa Coloma 2 845 57.39% Lusitanos 0 703 17.12% 25.48%
18 2019-03-03 32.7 @ UE Engordany 5 966 52.04% Lusitanos 0 876 21.95% 26.01%
19 2018-12-02 33.3 FC Santa Coloma 3 1144 75.79% @ Encamp 1 654 4.09% 20.11%
20 2019-04-28 33.6 @ Ordino 1 961 64.26% Encamp 0 736 11.42% 24.33%
21 2018-12-16 34.0 FC Santa Coloma 2 1148 52.78% @ UE Engordany 0 993 21.27% 25.95%
22 2019-05-05 34.2 UE Santa Coloma 2 875 52.15% @ Encamp 0 726 21.85% 26.00%
23 2019-05-04 34.3 FC Santa Coloma 1 1248 62.18% @ UE Engordany 0 993 13.07% 24.75%
24 2019-04-14 34.7 Ordino 1 949 60.52% @ Lusitanos 0 714 14.44% 25.04%
25 2019-02-03 34.8 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 1033 70.65% Encamp 1 707 6.91% 22.44%