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2019-20 Primera Divisió Season

96 games

Final

Champion

Inter Club d'Escaldes

52 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

UE Engordany

2.44 points below expected

39 points · 41.44 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

UE Santa Coloma

5.78 points below expected

39 points · 44.78 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Inter Club d'Escaldes 21 14 5 2 47 37 13 +24 40.24 +6.76
2 FC Santa Coloma 21 13 5 3 44 43 11 +32 44.53 -0.53
3 Sant Julia 21 11 3 7 36 26 23 +3 34.20 +1.80
4 UE Engordany 21 10 5 6 35 33 26 +7 31.94 +3.06
5 UE Santa Coloma 21 9 5 7 32 25 23 +2 27.35 +4.65
6 Atletic Escaldes 21 6 5 10 23 23 27 -4 23.79 -0.79
7 Carroi 21 2 3 16 9 11 38 -27 15.99 -6.99
8 Ordino 21 2 3 16 9 15 52 -37 16.14 -7.14
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Inter Club d'Escaldes Champion 24 15 7 2 52 41 14 +27 57.52 -5.52
2 FC Santa Coloma 24 15 6 3 51 48 12 +36 56.22 -5.22
3 UE Engordany 24 11 6 7 39 35 29 +6 41.44 -2.44
4 Sant Julia 24 11 3 10 36 27 30 -3 40.31 -4.31
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 UE Santa Coloma 24 11 6 7 39 34 26 +8 44.78 -5.78
2 Atletic Escaldes 24 8 6 10 30 32 29 +3 34.21 -4.21
3 Carroi 24 3 3 18 12 14 42 -28 14.44 -2.44
4 Ordino 24 2 3 19 9 15 64 -49 13.10 -4.10

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 UE Engordany 39 41.44 -2.44
2 Carroi 12 14.44 -2.44
3 Ordino 9 13.10 -4.10
4 Atletic Escaldes 30 34.21 -4.21
5 Sant Julia 36 40.31 -4.31

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 UE Santa Coloma 39 44.78 -5.78
2 Inter Club d'Escaldes 52 57.52 -5.52
3 FC Santa Coloma 51 56.22 -5.22
4 Sant Julia 36 40.31 -4.31
5 Atletic Escaldes 30 34.21 -4.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sant Julia 5 Dec 8 – Feb 16 1 in 95
2 UE Santa Coloma 3 Mar 8 – Jul 8 1 in 47
3 Carroi 2 Jul 12 – Jul 15 1 in 38
4 Inter Club d'Escaldes 6 Feb 2 – Mar 8 1 in 16
5 UE Engordany 5 Nov 10 – Dec 15 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Carroi 7 Feb 9 – Jul 9 1 in 29
2 Ordino 8 Mar 1 – Jul 22 1 in 20
3 FC Santa Coloma 2 Oct 20 – Oct 27 1 in 19
4 Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 Dec 8 – Dec 8 1 in 11
5 Sant Julia 3 Nov 3 – Nov 24 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 UE Engordany 11 Sep 29 – Feb 2 1 in 188
2 UE Santa Coloma 7 Sep 22 – Nov 10 1 in 49
3 Sant Julia 6 Dec 1 – Feb 16 1 in 13
4 Inter Club d'Escaldes 10 Sep 15 – Dec 1 1 in 13
5 Carroi 2 Jul 12 – Jul 15 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Carroi 12 Sep 15 – Dec 15 1 in 24
2 Ordino 14 Sep 22 – Feb 16 1 in 23
3 UE Engordany 5 Feb 2 – Mar 4 1 in 17
4 FC Santa Coloma 3 Dec 15 – Feb 9 1 in 11
5 Sant Julia 4 Nov 3 – Dec 1 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Inter Club d'Escaldes 1362 52 -31 8 9.4 -1.4
FC Santa Coloma 1439 51 +45 11 10.5 +0.5
UE Santa Coloma 1206 39 +40 10 9.6 +0.4
UE Engordany 1181 39 -37 4 4.9 -0.9
Sant Julia 1033 36 -22 4 4.5 -0.5
Atletic Escaldes 1157 30 +87 13 10.1 +2.9
Carroi 872 12 +47 6 3.7 +2.3
Ordino 721 9 -130 0 3.1 -3.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AE CAR FSC ICD ORD SJ UE USC
Atletic Escaldes —
2-1-1
7.78
0-0-3
1.53
1-0-2
1.69
3-1-0
8.04
1-1-1
2.35
1-1-1
2.81
0-2-2
4.92
Carroi
1-1-2
3.36
 —
0-0-3
1.27
0-0-3
1.68
1-2-1
5.95
0-0-3
1.90
0-0-3
2.41
1-0-3
2.64
FC Santa Coloma
3-0-0
6.86
3-0-0
7.16
 —
0-3-1
6.45
3-0-0
7.23
2-1-1
8.28
2-1-1
7.97
2-1-0
6.40
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2-0-1
6.69
3-0-0
6.72
1-3-0
4.66
 —
3-0-0
6.96
3-1-0
7.54
2-2-0
7.26
1-1-1
6.37
Ordino
0-1-3
3.12
1-2-1
5.17
0-0-3
1.20
0-0-3
1.46
 —
0-0-3
1.81
0-0-3
1.92
1-0-3
2.92
Sant Julia
1-1-1
6.01
3-0-0
6.47
1-1-2
2.88
0-1-3
3.60
3-0-0
6.57
 —
2-0-2
5.59
1-0-2
4.73
UE Engordany
1-1-1
5.54
3-0-0
5.97
1-1-2
3.17
0-2-2
3.87
3-0-0
6.47
2-0-2
5.53
 —
1-2-0
4.88
UE Santa Coloma
2-2-0
6.20
3-0-1
8.54
0-1-2
1.97
1-1-1
1.99
3-0-1
8.25
2-0-1
3.61
0-2-1
3.47
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +13.0
Allowed 0.88 -9.1
Differential 0.94 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%9.90%8.33%4.17%1.56%3.12%31.25%
19.90%13.54%5.73%4.69%0.52%—34.38%
28.33%5.73%3.12%1.04%—0.52%18.75%
34.17%4.69%1.04%———9.90%
41.56%0.52%————2.08%
5+3.12%—0.52%———3.65%
Total31.25%34.38%18.75%9.90%2.08%3.65%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.28 +0.00
SD 1.26 1.26 2.10
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 96

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%12.50%8.33%——4.17%33.33%
1—12.50%8.33%8.33%——29.17%
212.50%8.33%4.17%———25.00%
3———————
48.33%—————8.33%
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total33.33%33.33%20.83%8.33%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.21 +0.12
SD 1.40 1.25 2.25
CV 1.05 1.03 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%16.67%16.67%12.50%4.17%—54.17%
14.17%4.17%20.83%4.17%——33.33%
24.17%4.17%4.17%———12.50%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total12.50%25.00%41.67%16.67%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.58 1.75 -1.17
SD 0.72 1.03 1.40
CV 1.23 0.59 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%————12.50%
18.33%20.83%————29.17%
220.83%4.17%4.17%———29.17%
312.50%—————12.50%
44.17%4.17%————8.33%
5+8.33%—————8.33%
Total54.17%41.67%4.17%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.50 +1.50
SD 1.44 0.59 1.79
CV 0.72 1.18 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%—————8.33%
120.83%20.83%4.17%4.17%——50.00%
216.67%4.17%————20.83%
34.17%4.17%4.17%———12.50%
4———————
5+8.33%—————8.33%
Total58.33%29.17%8.33%4.17%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 0.58 +1.12
SD 1.30 0.83 1.62
CV 0.76 1.42 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%12.50%4.17%4.17%20.83%54.17%
1—8.33%4.17%16.67%——29.17%
2—8.33%4.17%4.17%——16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—29.17%20.83%25.00%4.17%20.83%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 2.67 -2.04
SD 0.77 1.49 1.92
CV 1.23 0.56 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%12.50%4.17%12.50%4.17%—41.67%
120.83%4.17%4.17%4.17%——33.33%
24.17%—————4.17%
34.17%8.33%4.17%———16.67%
4———————
5+——4.17%———4.17%
Total37.50%25.00%16.67%16.67%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.25 -0.12
SD 1.36 1.26 1.98
CV 1.21 1.01 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%4.17%16.67%———25.00%
18.33%20.83%————29.17%
2—12.50%—4.17%—4.17%20.83%
38.33%16.67%————25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.83%54.17%16.67%4.17%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.21 +0.25
SD 1.14 1.10 1.67
CV 0.78 0.91 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%8.33%4.17%——20.83%
116.67%16.67%4.17%—4.17%—41.67%
28.33%4.17%8.33%———20.83%
34.17%8.33%————12.50%
4———————
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total33.33%37.50%20.83%4.17%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.08 +0.33
SD 1.21 1.06 1.88
CV 0.86 0.98 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FC Santa Coloma 1439 51 44.53 +6.47 50.0% 34 36 41 44 48 53 57
Inter Club d'Escaldes 1362 52 40.24 +11.76 91.0% 24 30 37 41 45 48 53
UE Santa Coloma 1206 39 27.35 +11.65 79.0% 12 16 23 28 31 37 40
UE Engordany 1181 39 31.94 +7.06 73.0% 21 22 29 31 36 40 47
Atletic Escaldes 1157 30 23.79 +6.21 46.0% 12 14 20 24 27 33 36
Sant Julia 1033 36 34.20 +1.80 64.0% 24 26 31 33 38 41 52
Carroi 872 12 15.99 -3.99 9.0% 4 8 13 16 19 26 28
Ordino 721 9 16.14 -7.14 7.0% 3 8 13 16 19 24 29

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -2.5% * Slight Edge: -2.5% to 0% * Clear Edge: 0% to 6% * Strong Edge: 6% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-6.25%
No Edge
36.46%20.83%42.71%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -21.74 Elo pts.
175 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.12 goals
Neutral
-2-0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.0
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
31%
Inter Club d'Escaldes, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.04/gm
Photo Finish
00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.26 * Some Luck: 4.26 to 6.4 * Lucky: 6.4 to 8.53 * Wild Swing: 8.53 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.6 * Close: 0.6 to 0.9 * Off: 0.9 to 1.2 * Way Off: 1.2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.75 points
Some Luck
05.3313
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Close
00.752
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
91.00%
Inter Club d'Escaldes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
7.00%
Ordino
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.1 * Moderate Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Strong Separation: 2.35 to 2.5 * Wide Separation: 2.5 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 83.5% * Slight Edge: 83.5% to 89% * Clear Edge: 89% to 94% * Wide Edge: 94% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98.5% * Strong Edge: 98.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 40.5% * Some Drama: 40.5% to 45.5% * Frequent: 45.5% to 53% * Very Frequent: 53% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 28% * Occasional: 28% to 33.5% * Frequent: 33.5% to 41.5% * Very Frequent: 41.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Even
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 211.52
2.42
Strong Separation
12.12.353.25
Interquartile Edge
76%
Even
50%83.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Very Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Rare
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.49 * Slight Separation: 0.49 to 0.54 * Notable Separation: 0.54 to 0.6 * Lopsided: 0.6 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.56 * Some Carryover: 0.56 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.86 * Near-Lock: 0.86 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15.5% * Very Shaky: 15.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.50
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.82
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.83
Strong Carryover
00.560.761
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.04
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.14
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.107
Well Within Noise
00.1600.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team12345678
Inter Club d'Escaldes31.00%43.00%15.00%8.00%1.00%2.00%——
FC Santa Coloma63.00%28.00%7.00%2.00%————
UE Engordany—9.00%33.00%28.00%18.00%11.00%1.00%—
Sant Julia6.00%15.00%28.00%30.00%19.00%2.00%——
UE Santa Coloma—5.00%11.00%24.00%28.00%21.00%8.00%3.00%
Atletic Escaldes——6.00%8.00%28.00%36.00%13.00%9.00%
Carroi————2.00%19.00%34.00%45.00%
Ordino————4.00%9.00%44.00%43.00%
Team12345678
Inter Club d'Escaldes58.99%40.44%0.56%0.01%————
FC Santa Coloma40.99%57.71%1.24%0.06%————
UE Engordany0.01%1.08%55.71%43.20%————
Sant Julia0.01%0.77%42.49%56.73%————
UE Santa Coloma————97.05%2.95%——
Atletic Escaldes————2.95%97.00%0.05%—
Carroi—————0.02%56.40%43.58%
Ordino—————0.03%43.55%56.42%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
FC Santa Coloma 100% — —
Inter Club d'Escaldes 100% — —
Sant Julia 99.00% 1.00% —
UE Engordany 100% — —
UE Santa Coloma 96.00% 3.00% 1.00%
Atletic Escaldes 87.00% 11.00% 2.00%
Carroi 9.00% 46.00% 45.00%
Ordino 9.00% 39.00% 52.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
Atletic Escaldes 99.95% 0.05% —
FC Santa Coloma 100% — —
Inter Club d'Escaldes 100% — —
Sant Julia 100% — —
UE Engordany 100% — —
UE Santa Coloma 100% — —
Carroi 0.02% 56.40% 43.58%
Ordino 0.03% 43.55% 56.42%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-09-15 Atletic Escaldes W 2-030.3 1262 994 67.75% 20.68% 11.57%+1.41 +16.5 3
2019-09-15 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-230.3 994 1262 11.57% 20.68% 67.75%-1.41 -16.4 0
2019-09-15 Carroi W 2-034.3 1204 1084 54.46% 21.81% 23.73%+0.56 +31.3 3
2019-09-15 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-234.3 1084 1204 23.73% 21.81% 54.46%-0.56 -31.3 0
2019-09-15 Sant Julia L 2-540.9 1095 1197 25.69% 21.89% 52.42%-0.71 -35.5 0
2019-09-15 @ UE Engordany W 5-240.9 1197 1095 52.42% 21.89% 25.69%+0.71 +35.5 3
2019-09-15 UE Santa Coloma W 2-150.0 1046 1090 32.86% 22.06% 45.08%-0.38 +26.4 3
2019-09-15 @ Ordino L 1-250.0 1090 1046 45.08% 22.06% 32.86%+0.38 -26.4 0
2019-09-22 FC Santa Coloma D 2-261.7 1063 1279 15.06% 21.17% 63.77%-1.36 +5.3 1
2019-09-22 @ UE Santa Coloma D 2-261.7 1279 1063 63.77% 21.17% 15.06%+1.36 -5.3 4
2019-09-22 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 0-049.7 1233 1235 38.61% 22.10% 39.29%-0.14 +0.1 4
2019-09-22 @ Sant Julia D 0-049.7 1235 1233 39.29% 22.10% 38.61%+0.14 -0.1 4
2019-09-22 Ordino D 1-154.7 1053 1072 36.23% 22.09% 41.67%-0.23 +0.7 1
2019-09-22 @ Carroi D 1-154.7 1072 1053 41.67% 22.09% 36.23%+0.23 -0.7 4
2019-09-22 UE Engordany W 2-042.2 977 1060 27.94% 21.96% 50.10%-0.60 +57.8 3
2019-09-22 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-242.2 1060 977 50.10% 21.96% 27.94%+0.60 -57.8 0
2019-09-29 Atletic Escaldes W 1-034.7 1233 1035 62.27% 21.31% 16.42%+1.01 +12.0 7
2019-09-29 @ Sant Julia L 0-134.7 1035 1233 16.42% 21.31% 62.27%-1.01 -12.0 3
2019-09-29 Carroi W 1-034.1 1274 1054 64.13% 21.13% 14.74%+1.13 +10.9 7
2019-09-29 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-134.1 1054 1274 14.74% 21.13% 64.13%-1.13 -10.9 1
2019-09-29 Ordino W 1-035.6 1235 1071 59.10% 21.56% 19.34%+0.81 +13.9 7
2019-09-29 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-135.6 1071 1235 19.34% 21.56% 59.10%-0.81 -13.9 4
2019-09-29 UE Santa Coloma D 1-154.7 1002 1068 29.95% 22.01% 48.04%-0.50 +2.4 1
2019-09-29 @ UE Engordany D 1-154.7 1068 1002 48.04% 22.01% 29.95%+0.50 -2.4 2
2019-10-06 FC Santa Coloma L 0-529.7 1057 1284 14.23% 21.07% 64.70%-1.42 -46.7 4
2019-10-06 @ Ordino W 5-029.7 1284 1057 64.70% 21.07% 14.23%+1.42 +46.7 10
2019-10-06 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-337.9 1023 1249 14.31% 21.08% 64.62%-1.42 -17.4 3
2019-10-06 @ Atletic Escaldes W 3-137.9 1249 1023 64.62% 21.08% 14.31%+1.42 +17.4 10
2019-10-06 Sant Julia W 1-048.0 1066 1245 17.99% 21.45% 60.55%-1.15 +36.6 5
2019-10-06 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-148.0 1245 1066 60.55% 21.45% 17.99%+1.15 -36.6 7
2019-10-06 UE Engordany L 0-338.9 1043 1005 44.30% 22.07% 33.63%+0.09 -75.5 1
2019-10-06 @ Carroi W 3-038.9 1005 1043 33.63% 22.07% 44.30%-0.09 +75.5 4
2019-10-20 Carroi W 1-033.6 1208 967 65.78% 20.94% 13.28%+1.26 +9.9 10
2019-10-20 @ Sant Julia L 0-133.6 967 1208 13.28% 20.94% 65.78%-1.26 -9.9 1
2019-10-20 FC Santa Coloma W 1-045.1 1266 1331 30.15% 22.02% 47.83%-0.50 +29.4 13
2019-10-20 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-145.1 1331 1266 47.83% 22.02% 30.15%+0.50 -29.4 10
2019-10-20 Ordino W 3-142.7 1080 1011 48.41% 22.00% 29.59%+0.27 +32.6 7
2019-10-20 @ UE Engordany L 1-342.7 1011 1080 29.59% 22.00% 48.41%-0.27 -32.6 4
2019-10-20 UE Santa Coloma L 0-137.7 1006 1103 26.24% 21.91% 51.85%-0.68 -18.1 3
2019-10-20 @ Atletic Escaldes W 1-037.7 1103 1006 51.85% 21.91% 26.24%+0.68 +18.1 8
2019-10-27 Atletic Escaldes D 0-049.4 957 988 34.70% 22.08% 43.22%-0.30 +1.2 2
2019-10-27 @ Carroi D 0-049.4 988 957 43.22% 22.08% 34.70%+0.30 -1.2 4
2019-10-27 Sant Julia L 1-337.6 978 1218 13.35% 20.95% 65.70%-1.50 -16.3 4
2019-10-27 @ Ordino W 3-137.6 1218 978 65.70% 20.95% 13.35%+1.50 +16.3 13
2019-10-27 UE Engordany L 0-148.4 1302 1113 61.49% 21.38% 17.13%+0.96 -37.2 10
2019-10-27 @ FC Santa Coloma W 1-048.4 1113 1302 17.13% 21.38% 61.49%-0.96 +37.2 10
2019-10-27 UE Santa Coloma D 1-155.1 1296 1121 60.19% 21.48% 18.33%+0.88 -6.0 14
2019-10-27 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-155.1 1121 1296 18.33% 21.48% 60.19%-0.88 +6.0 9
2019-11-03 Carroi W 1-035.4 1127 959 59.54% 21.53% 18.93%+0.84 +13.7 12
2019-11-03 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-135.4 959 1127 18.93% 21.53% 59.54%-0.84 -13.7 2
2019-11-03 FC Santa Coloma L 0-336.5 1235 1265 34.73% 22.08% 43.18%-0.30 -62.2 13
2019-11-03 @ Sant Julia W 3-036.5 1265 1235 43.18% 22.08% 34.73%+0.30 +62.2 13
2019-11-03 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-155.0 1150 1290 21.61% 21.70% 56.69%-0.93 +4.9 11
2019-11-03 @ UE Engordany D 1-155.0 1290 1150 56.69% 21.70% 21.61%+0.93 -4.9 15
2019-11-03 Ordino W 2-037.9 986 962 42.41% 22.09% 35.50%+0.02 +43.6 7
2019-11-03 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-237.9 962 986 35.50% 22.09% 42.41%-0.02 -43.6 4
2019-11-09 FC Santa Coloma L 1-239.1 1030 1327 10.04% 20.38% 69.58%-1.82 -7.2 7
2019-11-09 @ Atletic Escaldes W 2-139.1 1327 1030 69.58% 20.38% 10.04%+1.82 +7.2 16
2019-11-09 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-238.3 945 1285 8.06% 19.88% 72.06%-2.07 -5.8 2
2019-11-09 @ Carroi W 2-138.3 1285 945 72.06% 19.88% 8.06%+2.07 +5.8 18
2019-11-10 Ordino W 1-034.0 1140 918 64.30% 21.11% 14.59%+1.15 +10.8 15
2019-11-10 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-134.0 918 1140 14.59% 21.11% 64.30%-1.15 -10.8 4
2019-11-10 UE Engordany L 0-338.2 1172 1155 41.47% 22.10% 36.44%-0.02 -71.5 13
2019-11-10 @ Sant Julia W 3-038.2 1155 1172 36.44% 22.10% 41.47%+0.02 +71.5 14
2019-11-24 Atletic Escaldes W 3-138.5 1226 1023 62.76% 21.27% 15.98%+1.04 +19.2 17
2019-11-24 @ UE Engordany L 1-338.5 1023 1226 15.98% 21.27% 62.76%-1.04 -19.2 7
2019-11-24 Carroi D 2-261.3 907 939 34.52% 22.08% 43.40%-0.31 +0.9 5
2019-11-24 @ Ordino D 2-261.3 939 907 43.40% 22.08% 34.52%+0.31 -0.9 3
2019-11-24 Sant Julia W 1-035.0 1291 1101 61.56% 21.37% 17.07%+0.96 +12.5 21
2019-11-24 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-135.0 1101 1291 17.07% 21.37% 61.56%-0.96 -12.5 13
2019-11-24 UE Santa Coloma W 2-032.7 1334 1151 60.90% 21.43% 17.67%+0.92 +24.3 19
2019-11-24 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-232.7 1151 1334 17.67% 21.43% 60.90%-0.92 -24.2 15
2019-12-01 FC Santa Coloma L 0-326.4 938 1358 5.35% 18.83% 75.82%-2.53 -11.1 3
2019-12-01 @ Carroi W 3-026.4 1358 938 75.82% 18.83% 5.35%+2.53 +11.1 22
2019-12-01 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-526.6 908 1303 6.09% 19.17% 74.73%-2.38 -20.5 5
2019-12-01 @ Ordino W 5-026.6 1303 908 74.73% 19.17% 6.09%+2.38 +20.5 24
2019-12-01 Sant Julia D 0-049.4 1003 1088 27.67% 21.95% 50.38%-0.61 +3.4 8
2019-12-01 @ Atletic Escaldes D 0-049.4 1088 1003 50.38% 21.95% 27.67%+0.61 -3.4 14
2019-12-01 UE Engordany L 0-137.1 1127 1245 23.86% 21.82% 54.33%-0.80 -16.7 15
2019-12-01 @ UE Santa Coloma W 1-037.1 1245 1127 54.33% 21.82% 23.86%+0.80 +16.7 20
2019-12-08 Atletic Escaldes L 1-257.3 1324 1007 70.77% 20.15% 9.08%+1.69 -40.3 24
2019-12-08 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 2-157.3 1007 1324 9.08% 20.15% 70.77%-1.69 +40.3 11
2019-12-08 Carroi W 3-135.7 1262 927 71.79% 19.94% 8.27%+1.79 +10.3 23
2019-12-08 @ UE Engordany L 1-335.7 927 1262 8.27% 19.94% 71.79%-1.79 -10.3 3
2019-12-08 Ordino W 1-029.9 1369 888 78.17% 17.93% 3.90%+2.63 +2.9 25
2019-12-08 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-129.9 888 1369 3.90% 17.93% 78.17%-2.63 -2.9 5
2019-12-08 UE Santa Coloma W 3-038.4 1085 1110 35.38% 22.09% 42.54%-0.27 +73.0 17
2019-12-08 @ Sant Julia L 0-338.4 1110 1085 42.54% 22.09% 35.38%+0.27 -73.0 15
2019-12-15 Atletic Escaldes D 1-154.6 1037 1047 37.53% 22.10% 40.37%-0.18 +0.4 16
2019-12-15 @ UE Santa Coloma D 1-154.6 1047 1037 40.37% 22.10% 37.53%+0.18 -0.4 12
2019-12-15 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-156.1 1372 1283 50.86% 21.94% 27.20%+0.38 -3.2 26
2019-12-15 @ FC Santa Coloma D 1-156.1 1283 1372 27.20% 21.94% 50.86%-0.38 +3.2 25
2019-12-15 Sant Julia L 0-230.9 917 1158 13.27% 20.94% 65.78%-1.51 -18.7 3
2019-12-15 @ Carroi W 2-030.9 1158 917 65.78% 20.94% 13.27%+1.51 +18.7 20
2019-12-15 UE Engordany L 1-237.6 885 1272 6.33% 19.27% 74.40%-2.34 -4.6 5
2019-12-15 @ Ordino W 2-137.6 1272 885 74.40% 19.27% 6.33%+2.34 +4.6 26
2020-02-02 Carroi L 1-253.6 1047 898 57.61% 21.65% 20.74%+0.73 -32.9 12
2020-02-02 @ Atletic Escaldes W 2-153.6 898 1047 20.74% 21.65% 57.61%-0.73 +32.9 6
2020-02-02 FC Santa Coloma D 1-156.0 1277 1369 26.82% 21.93% 51.25%-0.65 +3.3 27
2020-02-02 @ UE Engordany D 1-156.0 1369 1277 51.25% 21.93% 26.82%+0.65 -3.3 27
2020-02-02 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-230.8 1038 1287 12.77% 20.87% 66.35%-1.55 -18.1 16
2020-02-02 @ UE Santa Coloma W 2-030.8 1287 1038 66.35% 20.87% 12.77%+1.55 +18.1 28
2020-02-02 Ordino W 3-244.4 1177 880 69.54% 20.39% 10.07%+1.57 +6.8 23
2020-02-02 @ Sant Julia L 2-344.4 880 1177 10.07% 20.39% 69.54%-1.57 -6.8 5
2020-02-09 Atletic Escaldes D 1-154.7 874 1014 21.57% 21.70% 56.73%-0.93 +4.9 6
2020-02-09 @ Ordino D 1-154.7 1014 874 56.73% 21.70% 21.57%+0.93 -4.9 13
2020-02-09 Sant Julia L 0-148.6 1366 1183 60.86% 21.43% 17.71%+0.92 -36.8 27
2020-02-09 @ FC Santa Coloma W 1-048.6 1183 1366 17.71% 21.43% 60.86%-0.92 +36.8 26
2020-02-09 UE Engordany W 2-038.7 1305 1280 42.40% 22.09% 35.51%+0.01 +43.6 31
2020-02-09 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-238.7 1280 1305 35.51% 22.09% 42.40%-0.01 -43.6 27
2020-02-09 UE Santa Coloma L 0-333.8 931 1020 27.22% 21.94% 50.84%-0.63 -51.0 6
2020-02-09 @ Carroi W 3-033.8 1020 931 50.84% 21.94% 27.22%+0.63 +51.0 19
2020-02-16 Atletic Escaldes W 5-027.8 1329 1009 70.94% 20.12% 8.94%+1.71 +30.0 30
2020-02-16 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-527.8 1009 1329 8.94% 20.12% 70.94%-1.71 -30.0 13
2020-02-16 Carroi W 2-027.3 1348 880 77.70% 18.13% 4.18%+2.56 +5.9 34
2020-02-16 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-227.3 880 1348 4.18% 18.13% 77.70%-2.56 -5.9 6
2020-02-16 Sant Julia L 0-142.6 1237 1220 41.28% 22.10% 36.62%-0.03 -26.0 27
2020-02-16 @ UE Engordany W 1-042.6 1220 1237 36.62% 22.10% 41.28%+0.03 +26.0 29
2020-02-16 UE Santa Coloma L 0-232.1 878 1071 16.88% 21.36% 61.76%-1.22 -23.3 6
2020-02-16 @ Ordino W 2-032.1 1071 878 61.76% 21.36% 16.88%+1.22 +23.3 22
2020-02-23 FC Santa Coloma L 1-434.5 1094 1359 11.79% 20.71% 67.50%-1.64 -20.5 22
2020-02-23 @ UE Santa Coloma W 4-134.5 1359 1094 67.50% 20.71% 11.79%+1.64 +20.5 33
2020-02-23 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-138.3 1246 1354 25.02% 21.86% 53.11%-0.74 -17.4 29
2020-02-23 @ Sant Julia W 1-038.3 1354 1246 53.11% 21.86% 25.02%+0.74 +17.4 37
2020-02-23 Ordino L 1-249.0 874 855 41.62% 22.09% 36.29%-0.02 -24.7 6
2020-02-23 @ Carroi W 2-149.0 855 874 36.29% 22.09% 41.62%+0.02 +24.7 9
2020-03-01 Atletic Escaldes L 0-444.9 1229 979 66.42% 20.86% 12.71%+1.31 -143.7 29
2020-03-01 @ Sant Julia W 4-044.9 979 1229 12.71% 20.86% 66.42%-1.31 +143.7 16
2020-03-01 Carroi W 4-024.8 1379 849 79.78% 17.18% 3.03%+2.91 +8.0 36
2020-03-01 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-424.8 849 1379 3.03% 17.18% 79.78%-2.91 -8.0 6
2020-03-01 Ordino W 5-025.5 1371 880 78.52% 17.78% 3.70%+2.69 +12.2 40
2020-03-01 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-525.5 880 1371 3.70% 17.78% 78.52%-2.69 -12.2 9
2020-03-01 UE Santa Coloma D 1-154.8 1211 1073 56.39% 21.72% 21.89%+0.66 -4.8 28
2020-03-01 @ UE Engordany D 1-154.8 1073 1211 21.89% 21.72% 56.39%-0.66 +4.8 23
2020-03-04 UE Engordany D 1-154.8 1123 1206 27.89% 21.96% 50.15%-0.60 +3.0 17
2020-03-04 @ Atletic Escaldes D 1-154.8 1206 1123 50.15% 21.96% 27.89%+0.60 -3.0 29
2020-03-08 FC Santa Coloma L 0-325.2 868 1387 3.20% 17.35% 79.45%-3.10 -6.5 9
2020-03-08 @ Ordino W 3-025.2 1387 868 79.45% 17.35% 3.20%+3.10 +6.5 39
2020-03-08 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-133.6 1126 1384 12.21% 20.78% 67.00%-1.60 -9.2 17
2020-03-08 @ Atletic Escaldes W 1-033.6 1384 1126 67.00% 20.78% 12.21%+1.60 +9.2 43
2020-03-08 Sant Julia W 3-145.9 1078 1085 37.95% 22.10% 39.95%-0.16 +41.4 26
2020-03-08 @ UE Santa Coloma L 1-345.9 1085 1078 39.95% 22.10% 37.95%+0.16 -41.4 29
2020-03-08 UE Engordany L 1-237.9 841 1203 7.22% 19.61% 73.17%-2.19 -5.2 6
2020-03-08 @ Carroi W 2-137.9 1203 841 73.17% 19.61% 7.22%+2.19 +5.2 32
2020-07-05 Carroi W 1-034.3 1044 836 63.12% 21.23% 15.64%+1.07 +11.5 32
2020-07-05 @ Sant Julia L 0-134.3 836 1044 15.64% 21.23% 63.12%-1.07 -11.5 6
2020-07-05 FC Santa Coloma D 1-158.0 1393 1394 38.79% 22.10% 39.10%-0.13 +0.0 44
2020-07-05 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-158.0 1394 1393 39.10% 22.10% 38.79%+0.13 -0.0 40
2020-07-05 Ordino W 3-135.5 1208 861 72.42% 19.79% 7.79%+1.86 +9.7 35
2020-07-05 @ UE Engordany L 1-335.5 861 1208 7.79% 19.79% 72.42%-1.86 -9.7 9
2020-07-05 UE Santa Coloma L 0-238.8 1117 1120 38.51% 22.10% 39.39%-0.14 -46.4 17
2020-07-05 @ Atletic Escaldes W 2-038.8 1120 1117 39.39% 22.10% 38.51%+0.14 +46.4 29
2020-07-08 Sant Julia L 1-338.4 851 1055 15.94% 21.27% 62.79%-1.29 -19.2 9
2020-07-08 @ Ordino W 3-138.4 1055 851 62.79% 21.27% 15.94%+1.29 +19.2 35
2020-07-08 UE Santa Coloma L 1-353.7 1393 1166 64.68% 21.07% 14.25%+1.17 -63.8 44
2020-07-08 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 3-153.7 1166 1393 14.25% 21.07% 64.68%-1.17 +63.8 32
2020-07-09 Atletic Escaldes L 1-240.0 825 1070 12.98% 20.90% 66.11%-1.53 -9.2 6
2020-07-09 @ Carroi W 2-140.0 1070 825 66.11% 20.90% 12.98%+1.53 +9.2 20
2020-07-09 UE Engordany W 2-033.5 1394 1218 60.30% 21.47% 18.23%+0.88 +24.9 43
2020-07-09 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-233.5 1218 1394 18.23% 21.47% 60.30%-0.88 -24.9 35
2020-07-12 Carroi L 0-151.6 1230 815 75.59% 18.90% 5.51%+2.25 -45.5 32
2020-07-12 @ UE Santa Coloma W 1-051.6 815 1230 5.51% 18.90% 75.59%-2.25 +45.5 9
2020-07-12 FC Santa Coloma D 1-155.7 1075 1419 7.89% 19.83% 72.28%-2.10 +9.7 36
2020-07-12 @ Sant Julia D 1-155.7 1419 1075 72.28% 19.83% 7.89%+2.10 -9.7 44
2020-07-12 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 2-348.9 1193 1329 21.99% 21.72% 56.29%-0.90 -13.9 35
2020-07-12 @ UE Engordany W 3-248.9 1329 1193 56.29% 21.72% 21.99%+0.90 +13.9 47
2020-07-12 Ordino W 4-028.8 1079 832 66.21% 20.89% 12.90%+1.29 +34.5 23
2020-07-12 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-428.8 832 1079 12.90% 20.89% 66.21%-1.29 -34.6 9

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2020-07-15 Atletic Escaldes D 2-261.4 1184 1114 48.57% 22.00% 29.43%+0.28 -1.9 1
2020-07-15 @ UE Santa Coloma D 2-261.4 1114 1184 29.43% 22.00% 48.57%-0.28 +1.9 1
2020-07-15 Carroi L 0-236.3 798 861 30.36% 22.02% 47.62%-0.49 -38.4 0
2020-07-15 @ Ordino W 2-036.3 861 798 47.62% 22.02% 30.36%+0.49 +38.4 3
2020-07-16 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-157.3 1409 1343 48.01% 22.01% 29.98%+0.25 -2.4 1
2020-07-16 @ FC Santa Coloma D 1-157.3 1343 1409 29.98% 22.01% 48.01%-0.25 +2.4 1
2020-07-16 UE Engordany L 1-244.5 1084 1179 26.53% 21.92% 51.55%-0.67 -17.2 0
2020-07-16 @ Sant Julia W 2-144.5 1179 1084 51.55% 21.92% 26.53%+0.67 +17.2 3
2020-07-19 Atletic Escaldes L 0-231.4 899 1116 14.99% 21.16% 63.84%-1.36 -20.9 3
2020-07-19 @ Carroi W 2-031.4 1116 899 63.84% 21.16% 14.99%+1.36 +20.9 4
2020-07-19 FC Santa Coloma L 0-229.3 1067 1407 8.08% 19.88% 72.04%-2.07 -11.6 0
2020-07-19 @ Sant Julia W 2-029.3 1407 1067 72.04% 19.88% 8.08%+2.07 +11.6 4
2020-07-19 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 0-050.1 1196 1345 20.69% 21.65% 57.66%-0.98 +5.8 4
2020-07-19 @ UE Engordany D 0-050.1 1345 1196 57.66% 21.65% 20.69%+0.98 -5.8 2
2020-07-19 UE Santa Coloma L 0-526.2 759 1182 5.27% 18.78% 75.95%-2.55 -17.6 0
2020-07-19 @ Ordino W 5-026.2 1182 759 75.95% 18.78% 5.27%+2.55 +17.6 4
2020-07-22 Carroi W 2-138.6 1200 878 71.05% 20.10% 8.85%+1.72 +6.4 7
2020-07-22 @ UE Santa Coloma L 1-238.6 878 1200 8.85% 20.10% 71.05%-1.72 -6.4 3
2020-07-22 Ordino W 5-026.5 1137 742 74.74% 19.17% 6.09%+2.14 +20.4 7
2020-07-22 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-526.5 742 1137 6.09% 19.17% 74.74%-2.14 -20.5 0
2020-07-23 Sant Julia W 3-028.6 1340 1055 68.78% 20.52% 10.71%+1.50 +22.2 5
2020-07-23 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-328.6 1055 1340 10.71% 20.52% 68.78%-1.50 -22.2 0
2020-07-23 UE Engordany W 2-032.5 1418 1202 63.84% 21.16% 15.00%+1.11 +20.9 7
2020-07-23 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-232.5 1202 1418 15.00% 21.16% 63.84%-1.11 -20.9 4

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-07-12 5.51% Carroi 815 1 @ UE Santa Coloma 1230 0
2 2019-12-08 9.08% Atletic Escaldes 1007 2 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1324 1
3 2020-03-01 12.71% Atletic Escaldes 979 4 @ Sant Julia 1229 0
4 2020-07-08 14.25% UE Santa Coloma 1166 3 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1393 1
5 2019-10-27 17.13% UE Engordany 1113 1 @ FC Santa Coloma 1302 0
6 2020-02-09 17.71% Sant Julia 1183 1 @ FC Santa Coloma 1366 0
7 2019-10-06 17.99% @ UE Santa Coloma 1066 1 Sant Julia 1245 0
8 2020-02-02 20.74% Carroi 898 2 @ Atletic Escaldes 1047 1
9 2019-09-22 27.94% @ Atletic Escaldes 977 2 UE Engordany 1060 0
10 2019-10-20 30.15% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1266 1 FC Santa Coloma 1331 0
11 2019-09-15 32.86% @ Ordino 1046 2 UE Santa Coloma 1090 1
12 2019-10-06 33.63% UE Engordany 1005 3 @ Carroi 1043 0
13 2019-12-08 35.38% @ Sant Julia 1085 3 UE Santa Coloma 1110 0
14 2020-02-23 36.29% Ordino 855 2 @ Carroi 874 1
15 2019-11-10 36.44% UE Engordany 1155 3 @ Sant Julia 1172 0
16 2020-02-16 36.62% Sant Julia 1220 1 @ UE Engordany 1237 0
17 2020-03-08 37.95% @ UE Santa Coloma 1078 3 Sant Julia 1085 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-03-01 143.67 Atletic Escaldes 4 979 12.71% @ Sant Julia 0 1229 66.42% 20.86%
2 2019-10-06 75.48 UE Engordany 3 1005 33.63% @ Carroi 0 1043 44.30% 22.07%
3 2019-12-08 72.99 @ Sant Julia 3 1085 35.38% UE Santa Coloma 0 1110 42.54% 22.09%
4 2019-11-10 71.50 UE Engordany 3 1155 36.44% @ Sant Julia 0 1172 41.47% 22.10%
5 2020-07-08 63.84 UE Santa Coloma 3 1166 14.25% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1393 64.68% 21.07%
6 2019-11-03 62.18 FC Santa Coloma 3 1265 43.18% @ Sant Julia 0 1235 34.73% 22.08%
7 2019-09-22 57.79 @ Atletic Escaldes 2 977 27.94% UE Engordany 0 1060 50.10% 21.96%
8 2020-02-09 51.04 UE Santa Coloma 3 1020 50.84% @ Carroi 0 931 27.22% 21.94%
9 2019-10-06 46.67 FC Santa Coloma 5 1284 64.70% @ Ordino 0 1057 14.23% 21.07%
10 2020-07-05 46.44 UE Santa Coloma 2 1120 39.39% @ Atletic Escaldes 0 1117 38.51% 22.10%
11 2020-07-12 45.51 Carroi 1 815 5.51% @ UE Santa Coloma 0 1230 75.59% 18.90%
12 2020-02-09 43.57 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1305 42.40% UE Engordany 0 1280 35.51% 22.09%
13 2019-11-03 43.57 @ Atletic Escaldes 2 986 42.41% Ordino 0 962 35.50% 22.09%
14 2020-03-08 41.39 @ UE Santa Coloma 3 1078 37.95% Sant Julia 1 1085 39.95% 22.10%
15 2019-12-08 40.34 Atletic Escaldes 2 1007 9.08% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1324 70.77% 20.15%
16 2020-07-15 38.43 Carroi 2 861 47.62% @ Ordino 0 798 30.36% 22.02%
17 2019-10-27 37.17 UE Engordany 1 1113 17.13% @ FC Santa Coloma 0 1302 61.49% 21.38%
18 2020-02-09 36.80 Sant Julia 1 1183 17.71% @ FC Santa Coloma 0 1366 60.86% 21.43%
19 2019-10-06 36.61 @ UE Santa Coloma 1 1066 17.99% Sant Julia 0 1245 60.55% 21.45%
20 2019-09-15 35.53 Sant Julia 5 1197 52.42% @ UE Engordany 2 1095 25.69% 21.89%
21 2020-07-12 34.56 @ Atletic Escaldes 4 1079 66.21% Ordino 0 832 12.90% 20.89%
22 2020-02-02 32.89 Carroi 2 898 20.74% @ Atletic Escaldes 1 1047 57.61% 21.65%
23 2019-10-20 32.59 @ UE Engordany 3 1080 48.41% Ordino 1 1011 29.59% 22.00%
24 2019-09-15 31.33 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1204 54.46% Carroi 0 1084 23.73% 21.81%
25 2020-02-16 30.00 @ FC Santa Coloma 5 1329 70.94% Atletic Escaldes 0 1009 8.94% 20.12%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-09-22 61.7 @ UE Santa Coloma 2 1063 15.06% FC Santa Coloma 2 1279 63.77% 21.17%
2 2020-07-15 61.4 @ UE Santa Coloma 2 1184 48.57% Atletic Escaldes 2 1114 29.43% 22.00%
3 2019-11-24 61.3 @ Ordino 2 907 34.52% Carroi 2 939 43.40% 22.08%
4 2020-07-05 58.0 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1393 38.79% FC Santa Coloma 1 1394 39.10% 22.10%
5 2019-12-08 57.3 Atletic Escaldes 2 1007 9.08% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1324 70.77% 20.15%
6 2020-07-16 57.3 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1409 48.01% Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1343 29.98% 22.01%
7 2019-12-15 56.1 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1372 50.86% Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1283 27.20% 21.94%
8 2020-02-02 56.0 @ UE Engordany 1 1277 26.82% FC Santa Coloma 1 1369 51.25% 21.93%
9 2020-07-12 55.7 @ Sant Julia 1 1075 7.89% FC Santa Coloma 1 1419 72.28% 19.83%
10 2019-10-27 55.1 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1296 60.19% UE Santa Coloma 1 1121 18.33% 21.48%
11 2019-11-03 55.0 @ UE Engordany 1 1150 21.61% Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1290 56.69% 21.70%
12 2020-03-01 54.8 @ UE Engordany 1 1211 56.39% UE Santa Coloma 1 1073 21.89% 21.72%
13 2020-03-04 54.8 @ Atletic Escaldes 1 1123 27.89% UE Engordany 1 1206 50.15% 21.96%
14 2019-09-22 54.7 @ Carroi 1 1053 36.23% Ordino 1 1072 41.67% 22.09%
15 2019-09-29 54.7 @ UE Engordany 1 1002 29.95% UE Santa Coloma 1 1068 48.04% 22.01%
16 2020-02-09 54.7 @ Ordino 1 874 21.57% Atletic Escaldes 1 1014 56.73% 21.70%
17 2019-12-15 54.6 @ UE Santa Coloma 1 1037 37.53% Atletic Escaldes 1 1047 40.37% 22.10%
18 2020-07-08 53.7 UE Santa Coloma 3 1166 14.25% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1393 64.68% 21.07%
19 2020-02-02 53.6 Carroi 2 898 20.74% @ Atletic Escaldes 1 1047 57.61% 21.65%
20 2020-07-12 51.6 Carroi 1 815 5.51% @ UE Santa Coloma 0 1230 75.59% 18.90%
21 2020-07-19 50.1 @ UE Engordany 0 1196 20.69% Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 1345 57.66% 21.65%
22 2019-09-15 50.0 @ Ordino 2 1046 32.86% UE Santa Coloma 1 1090 45.08% 22.06%
23 2019-09-22 49.7 @ Sant Julia 0 1233 38.61% Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 1235 39.29% 22.10%
24 2019-10-27 49.4 @ Carroi 0 957 34.70% Atletic Escaldes 0 988 43.22% 22.08%
25 2019-12-01 49.4 @ Atletic Escaldes 0 1003 27.67% Sant Julia 0 1088 50.38% 21.95%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-03-01 24.8 @ FC Santa Coloma 4 1379 79.78% Carroi 0 849 3.03% 17.18%
2 2020-03-08 25.2 FC Santa Coloma 3 1387 79.45% @ Ordino 0 868 3.20% 17.35%
3 2020-03-01 25.5 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 5 1371 78.52% Ordino 0 880 3.70% 17.78%
4 2020-07-19 26.2 UE Santa Coloma 5 1182 75.95% @ Ordino 0 759 5.27% 18.78%
5 2019-12-01 26.4 FC Santa Coloma 3 1358 75.82% @ Carroi 0 938 5.35% 18.83%
6 2020-07-22 26.5 @ Atletic Escaldes 5 1137 74.74% Ordino 0 742 6.09% 19.17%
7 2019-12-01 26.6 Inter Club d'Escaldes 5 1303 74.73% @ Ordino 0 908 6.09% 19.17%
8 2020-02-16 27.3 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1348 77.70% Carroi 0 880 4.18% 18.13%
9 2020-02-16 27.8 @ FC Santa Coloma 5 1329 70.94% Atletic Escaldes 0 1009 8.94% 20.12%
10 2020-07-23 28.6 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 1340 68.78% Sant Julia 0 1055 10.71% 20.52%
11 2020-07-12 28.8 @ Atletic Escaldes 4 1079 66.21% Ordino 0 832 12.90% 20.89%
12 2020-07-19 29.3 FC Santa Coloma 2 1407 72.04% @ Sant Julia 0 1067 8.08% 19.88%
13 2019-10-06 29.7 FC Santa Coloma 5 1284 64.70% @ Ordino 0 1057 14.23% 21.07%
14 2019-12-08 29.9 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1369 78.17% Ordino 0 888 3.90% 17.93%
15 2019-09-15 30.3 @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1262 67.75% Atletic Escaldes 0 994 11.57% 20.68%
16 2020-02-02 30.8 Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1287 66.35% @ UE Santa Coloma 0 1038 12.77% 20.87%
17 2019-12-15 30.9 Sant Julia 2 1158 65.78% @ Carroi 0 917 13.27% 20.94%
18 2020-07-19 31.4 Atletic Escaldes 2 1116 63.84% @ Carroi 0 899 14.99% 21.16%
19 2020-02-16 32.1 UE Santa Coloma 2 1071 61.76% @ Ordino 0 878 16.88% 21.36%
20 2020-07-23 32.5 @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1418 63.84% UE Engordany 0 1202 15.00% 21.16%
21 2019-11-24 32.7 @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1334 60.90% UE Santa Coloma 0 1151 17.67% 21.43%
22 2020-07-09 33.5 @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1394 60.30% UE Engordany 0 1218 18.23% 21.47%
23 2019-10-20 33.6 @ Sant Julia 1 1208 65.78% Carroi 0 967 13.28% 20.94%
24 2020-03-08 33.6 Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1384 67.00% @ Atletic Escaldes 0 1126 12.21% 20.78%
25 2020-02-09 33.8 UE Santa Coloma 3 1020 50.84% @ Carroi 0 931 27.22% 21.94%