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2022-23 Primera Divisió Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Atletic Escaldes

63 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Penya Encarnada

9.30 points above expected

27 points · 17.70 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sant Julia

10.99 points below expected

16 points · 26.99 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Atletic Escaldes Champion 28 19 6 3 63 68 19 +49 55.11 +7.89
2 Inter Club d'Escaldes 28 18 7 3 61 76 23 +53 55.11 +5.89
3 FC Santa Coloma 28 15 8 5 53 55 19 +36 52.93 +0.07
4 UE Santa Coloma 28 10 12 6 42 40 29 +11 49.62 -7.62
5 Penya Encarnada 28 6 9 13 27 25 46 -21 17.70 +9.30
6 Ordino 28 5 8 15 23 33 55 -22 27.03 -4.03
7 UE Engordany 28 6 4 18 22 21 67 -46 24.49 -2.49
8 Sant Julia 28 4 4 20 16 23 83 -60 26.99 -10.99

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Penya Encarnada 27 17.70 +9.30
2 Atletic Escaldes 63 55.11 +7.89
3 Inter Club d'Escaldes 61 55.11 +5.89
4 FC Santa Coloma 53 52.93 +0.07
5 UE Engordany 22 24.49 -2.49

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sant Julia 16 26.99 -10.99
2 UE Santa Coloma 42 49.62 -7.62
3 Ordino 23 27.03 -4.03
4 UE Engordany 22 24.49 -2.49
5 FC Santa Coloma 53 52.93 +0.07

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Penya Encarnada 2 Apr 16 – Apr 23 1 in 34
2 UE Engordany 3 Feb 5 – Feb 19 1 in 19
3 Atletic Escaldes 4 Oct 9 – Oct 30 1 in 14
4 FC Santa Coloma 5 Nov 13 – Dec 11 1 in 12
5 Inter Club d'Escaldes 6 Oct 23 – Nov 27 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sant Julia 9 Oct 9 – Dec 4 1 in 708
2 Ordino 5 Feb 12 – Mar 12 1 in 188
3 UE Santa Coloma 3 Apr 16 – Apr 30 1 in 42
4 UE Engordany 5 Mar 4 – Apr 23 1 in 14
5 Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 Oct 9 – Oct 16 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atletic Escaldes 15 Sep 11 – Jan 29 1 in 52
2 UE Santa Coloma 11 Sep 18 – Dec 4 1 in 20
3 UE Engordany 4 Feb 5 – Feb 26 1 in 11
4 Penya Encarnada 4 Apr 2 – Apr 30 1 in 11
5 Inter Club d'Escaldes 12 Feb 12 – May 21 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 UE Santa Coloma 6 Apr 2 – May 14 1 in 69
2 Ordino 9 Feb 12 – Apr 30 1 in 19
3 Sant Julia 10 Oct 2 – Dec 4 1 in 17
4 Inter Club d'Escaldes 4 Sep 18 – Oct 16 1 in 9
5 UE Engordany 10 Feb 26 – May 21 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Atletic Escaldes 1384 63 +21 12 10.7 +1.3
Inter Club d'Escaldes 1428 61 +38 15 11.0 +4.0
FC Santa Coloma 1287 53 -26 10 11.6 -1.6
UE Santa Coloma 1204 42 -3 5 6.8 -1.8
Penya Encarnada 1040 27 +55 7 4.5 +2.5
Ordino 953 23 +27 7 4.2 +2.8
UE Engordany 857 22 -60 1 3.4 -2.4
Sant Julia 893 16 -51 0 3.4 -3.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AE FSC ICD ORD PE SJ UE USC
Atletic Escaldes —
2-2-0
5.40
1-1-2
5.02
2-2-0
9.20
4-0-0
9.79
4-0-0
9.14
4-0-0
9.40
2-1-1
6.19
FC Santa Coloma
0-2-2
5.50
—
0-3-1
4.80
3-1-0
9.02
3-0-1
9.77
4-0-0
9.19
4-0-0
8.95
1-2-1
6.31
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2-1-1
5.89
1-3-0
6.11
—
3-0-1
9.17
3-1-0
9.83
3-1-0
9.09
4-0-0
9.06
2-1-1
6.65
Ordino
0-2-2
1.93
0-1-3
2.08
1-0-3
1.96
—
0-2-2
7.16
1-0-3
6.05
3-0-1
5.86
0-3-1
2.36
Penya Encarnada
0-0-4
1.44
1-0-3
1.46
0-1-3
1.40
2-2-0
3.78
—
2-2-0
4.17
0-2-2
4.51
1-2-1
1.60
Sant Julia
0-0-4
1.99
0-0-4
1.96
0-1-3
2.06
3-0-1
4.88
0-2-2
6.79
—
1-0-3
5.90
0-1-3
2.53
UE Engordany
0-0-4
1.77
0-0-4
2.13
0-0-4
2.05
1-0-3
5.05
2-2-0
6.42
3-0-1
5.02
—
0-2-2
2.26
UE Santa Coloma
1-1-2
4.73
1-2-1
4.60
1-1-2
4.28
1-3-0
8.69
1-2-1
9.58
3-1-0
8.57
2-2-0
8.80
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +8.5
Allowed 0.86 -7.2
Differential 0.97 +4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%6.25%4.02%7.59%2.23%3.12%30.36%
16.25%15.18%5.36%2.68%0.89%1.79%32.14%
24.02%5.36%3.57%2.23%——15.18%
37.59%2.68%2.23%——0.89%13.39%
42.23%0.89%————3.12%
5+3.12%1.79%—0.89%——5.80%
Total30.36%32.14%15.18%13.39%3.12%5.80%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.70 1.70 2.73
CV 1.12 1.12 —
Max 12 12 +12
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—3.57%———10.71%
110.71%10.71%7.14%———28.57%
27.14%3.57%3.57%———14.29%
321.43%3.57%3.57%———28.57%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+—14.29%————14.29%
Total50.00%32.14%17.86%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 0.68 +1.75
SD 1.85 0.77 2.01
CV 0.76 1.14 —
Max 7 2 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%3.57%3.57%——28.57%
17.14%10.71%3.57%———21.43%
23.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
314.29%3.57%3.57%———21.43%
47.14%3.57%————10.71%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total53.57%28.57%14.29%3.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 0.68 +1.29
SD 1.90 0.86 2.31
CV 0.96 1.27 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%————7.14%
110.71%7.14%3.57%3.57%——25.00%
27.14%14.29%14.29%———35.71%
310.71%—————10.71%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+14.29%——3.57%——17.86%
Total50.00%25.00%17.86%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.71 0.82 +1.89
SD 2.57 0.98 2.96
CV 0.95 1.20 —
Max 12 3 +12
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%—10.71%——25.00%
13.57%25.00%7.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%50.00%
2—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
33.57%————3.57%7.14%
4———————
5+———3.57%——3.57%
Total10.71%42.86%7.14%28.57%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.96 -0.79
SD 1.12 1.50 1.71
CV 0.95 0.76 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%10.71%10.71%3.57%3.57%50.00%
13.57%21.43%————25.00%
23.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%——14.29%
33.57%—3.57%———7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total17.86%42.86%17.86%14.29%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.64 -0.75
SD 1.13 1.64 2.22
CV 1.27 1.00 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%—7.14%10.71%10.71%10.71%42.86%
13.57%10.71%14.29%7.14%—7.14%42.86%
2———3.57%——3.57%
33.57%—7.14%———10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%10.71%28.57%21.43%10.71%17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 2.96 -2.14
SD 0.94 2.41 2.89
CV 1.15 0.81 —
Max 3 12 +3
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%7.14%21.43%3.57%10.71%53.57%
17.14%10.71%7.14%——3.57%28.57%
23.57%7.14%————10.71%
3—————3.57%3.57%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total17.86%25.00%14.29%21.43%3.57%17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 2.39 -1.64
SD 1.04 2.08 2.59
CV 1.39 0.87 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%—3.57%——25.00%
13.57%25.00%—3.57%3.57%—35.71%
27.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
33.57%14.29%————17.86%
4———————
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total32.14%50.00%3.57%10.71%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.04 +0.39
SD 1.26 1.07 1.73
CV 0.88 1.03 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Inter Club d'Escaldes 1428 61 55.11 +5.89 84.0% 42 44 51 55 59 63 71
Atletic Escaldes 1384 63 55.11 +7.89 87.0% 43 46 50 54 60 66 69
FC Santa Coloma 1287 53 52.93 +0.07 56.0% 38 42 49 53 57 63 68
UE Santa Coloma 1204 42 49.62 -7.62 10.0% 35 39 45 49 54 61 63
Penya Encarnada 1040 27 17.70 +9.30 97.0% 9 11 13 17 21 27 32
Ordino 953 23 27.03 -4.03 32.0% 16 18 23 27 31 38 40
Sant Julia 893 16 26.99 -10.99 6.0% 10 16 23 27 31 38 42
UE Engordany 857 22 24.49 -2.49 35.0% 12 14 21 25 28 34 39

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -2.5% * Slight Edge: -2.5% to 0% * Clear Edge: 0% to 6% * Strong Edge: 6% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-2.68%
No Edge
35.71%25.89%38.39%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -9.31 Elo pts.
162 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.04 goals
Neutral
-2-0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.9
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
37%
Atletic Escaldes, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.74 * Some Luck: 4.74 to 7.1 * Lucky: 7.1 to 9.47 * Wild Swing: 9.47 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.69 * Close: 0.69 to 1.04 * Off: 1.04 to 1.39 * Way Off: 1.39 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.93 points
Some Luck
05.9215
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.88
Close
00.872
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
97.00%
Penya Encarnada
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
6.00%
Sant Julia
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.1 * Moderate Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Strong Separation: 2.35 to 2.5 * Wide Separation: 2.5 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 83.5% * Slight Edge: 83.5% to 89% * Clear Edge: 89% to 94% * Wide Edge: 94% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98.5% * Strong Edge: 98.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 40.5% * Some Drama: 40.5% to 45.5% * Frequent: 45.5% to 53% * Very Frequent: 53% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 28% * Occasional: 28% to 33.5% * Frequent: 33.5% to 41.5% * Very Frequent: 41.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Top-Heavy
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 224.81
2.72
Wide Separation
12.12.353.25
Interquartile Edge
90%
Clear Edge
50%83.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
96%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Very Frequent
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Occasional
0%37%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.49 * Slight Separation: 0.49 to 0.54 * Notable Separation: 0.54 to 0.6 * Lopsided: 0.6 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.56 * Some Carryover: 0.56 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.86 * Near-Lock: 0.86 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15.5% * Very Shaky: 15.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.55
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.41
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.64
Some Carryover
00.560.761
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Upset-Prone
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Shaky Favorites
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.49
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.96
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.142
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Atletic Escaldes37.00%19.00%29.00%15.00%————
Inter Club d'Escaldes42.00%23.00%25.00%10.00%————
FC Santa Coloma16.00%35.00%27.00%21.00%1.00%———
UE Santa Coloma5.00%23.00%19.00%52.00%1.00%———
Penya Encarnada————3.00%11.00%22.00%64.00%
Ordino———2.00%36.00%27.00%23.00%12.00%
UE Engordany————21.00%33.00%30.00%16.00%
Sant Julia————38.00%29.00%25.00%8.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Atletic Escaldes 100% — —
FC Santa Coloma 100% — —
Inter Club d'Escaldes 100% — —
UE Santa Coloma 100% — —
Sant Julia 67.00% 25.00% 8.00%
Ordino 65.00% 23.00% 12.00%
UE Engordany 54.00% 30.00% 16.00%
Penya Encarnada 14.00% 22.00% 64.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2022-09-11 Atletic Escaldes L 2-353.7 1232 1196 41.28% 27.38% 31.33%+0.16 -16.4 0
2022-09-11 @ UE Santa Coloma W 3-253.7 1196 1232 31.33% 27.38% 41.28%-0.16 +16.4 3
2022-09-11 FC Santa Coloma L 0-134.8 1016 1252 12.51% 24.41% 63.08%-1.51 -6.8 0
2022-09-11 @ UE Engordany W 1-034.8 1252 1016 63.08% 24.41% 12.51%+1.51 +6.8 3
2022-09-11 Ordino W 2-139.7 1268 1044 62.08% 24.69% 13.23%+1.33 +6.8 3
2022-09-11 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-239.7 1044 1268 13.23% 24.69% 62.08%-1.33 -6.8 0
2022-09-11 Penya Encarnada D 0-048.6 1173 868 68.36% 22.61% 9.04%+1.83 -6.8 1
2022-09-11 @ Sant Julia D 0-048.6 868 1173 9.04% 22.61% 68.36%-1.83 +6.8 1
2022-09-18 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 2-256.3 1258 1275 33.99% 27.44% 38.57%-0.16 +0.3 4
2022-09-18 @ FC Santa Coloma D 2-256.3 1275 1258 38.57% 27.44% 33.99%+0.16 -0.3 4
2022-09-18 Sant Julia L 0-137.8 1037 1166 20.63% 26.49% 52.88%-0.86 -10.7 0
2022-09-18 @ Ordino W 1-037.8 1166 1037 52.88% 26.49% 20.63%+0.86 +10.7 4
2022-09-18 UE Engordany W 1-035.6 1212 1009 60.27% 25.15% 14.58%+1.20 +7.9 6
2022-09-18 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-135.6 1009 1212 14.58% 25.15% 60.27%-1.20 -7.9 0
2022-09-18 UE Santa Coloma D 1-152.7 875 1215 7.67% 21.60% 70.74%-2.16 +6.5 2
2022-09-18 @ Penya Encarnada D 1-152.7 1215 875 70.74% 21.60% 7.67%+2.16 -6.5 1
2022-10-02 Atletic Escaldes D 1-151.3 1259 1220 41.68% 27.37% 30.95%+0.18 -1.0 5
2022-10-02 @ FC Santa Coloma D 1-151.3 1220 1259 30.95% 27.37% 41.68%-0.18 +1.0 7
2022-10-02 Ordino D 0-047.7 1209 1026 58.33% 25.58% 16.09%+1.07 -4.6 2
2022-10-02 @ UE Santa Coloma D 0-047.7 1026 1209 16.09% 25.58% 58.33%-1.07 +4.6 1
2022-10-02 Penya Encarnada W 1-038.1 1001 881 51.83% 26.62% 21.55%+0.68 +11.1 3
2022-10-02 @ UE Engordany L 0-138.1 881 1001 21.55% 26.62% 51.83%-0.68 -11.1 2
2022-10-02 Sant Julia D 1-151.4 1274 1177 49.19% 26.90% 23.91%+0.54 -2.3 5
2022-10-02 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-151.4 1177 1274 23.91% 26.90% 49.19%-0.54 +2.3 5
2022-10-09 FC Santa Coloma L 0-230.0 870 1258 6.16% 20.18% 73.66%-2.45 -6.1 2
2022-10-09 @ Penya Encarnada W 2-030.0 1258 870 73.66% 20.18% 6.16%+2.45 +6.1 8
2022-10-09 Inter Club d'Escaldes W 2-149.8 1221 1272 29.37% 27.30% 43.33%-0.37 +18.0 10
2022-10-09 @ Atletic Escaldes L 1-249.8 1272 1221 43.33% 27.30% 29.37%+0.37 -18.0 5
2022-10-09 UE Engordany W 5-351.3 1031 1012 38.94% 27.44% 33.62%+0.06 +21.7 4
2022-10-09 @ Ordino L 3-551.3 1012 1031 33.62% 27.44% 38.94%-0.06 -21.7 3
2022-10-09 UE Santa Coloma L 0-339.0 1179 1204 32.81% 27.42% 39.77%-0.21 -42.3 5
2022-10-09 @ Sant Julia W 3-039.0 1204 1179 39.77% 27.42% 32.81%+0.21 +42.3 5
2022-10-16 Ordino D 1-151.8 1264 1053 60.97% 24.98% 14.05%+1.25 -4.7 9
2022-10-16 @ FC Santa Coloma D 1-151.8 1053 1264 14.05% 24.98% 60.97%-1.25 +4.7 5
2022-10-16 Penya Encarnada W 3-028.9 1239 864 72.91% 20.57% 6.53%+2.26 +9.4 13
2022-10-16 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-328.9 864 1239 6.53% 20.57% 72.91%-2.26 -9.4 2
2022-10-16 Sant Julia W 2-152.5 990 1137 19.03% 26.22% 54.74%-0.96 +21.9 6
2022-10-16 @ UE Engordany L 1-252.5 1137 990 54.74% 26.22% 19.03%+0.96 -21.9 5
2022-10-16 UE Santa Coloma L 1-346.8 1254 1246 37.36% 27.45% 35.18%-0.01 -27.7 5
2022-10-16 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 3-146.8 1246 1254 35.18% 27.45% 37.36%+0.01 +27.8 8
2022-10-23 Atletic Escaldes L 0-333.1 1057 1248 15.44% 25.40% 59.15%-1.24 -22.7 5
2022-10-23 @ Ordino W 3-033.1 1248 1057 59.15% 25.40% 15.44%+1.24 +22.7 16
2022-10-23 FC Santa Coloma L 1-242.0 1115 1259 19.27% 26.27% 54.46%-0.95 -9.5 5
2022-10-23 @ Sant Julia W 2-142.0 1259 1115 54.46% 26.27% 19.27%+0.95 +9.5 12
2022-10-23 Penya Encarnada W 2-030.2 1226 854 72.70% 20.67% 6.63%+2.24 +6.6 8
2022-10-23 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-230.2 854 1226 6.63% 20.67% 72.70%-2.24 -6.6 2
2022-10-23 UE Engordany D 1-152.1 1274 1012 65.15% 23.77% 11.08%+1.56 -5.5 9
2022-10-23 @ UE Santa Coloma D 1-152.1 1012 1274 11.08% 23.77% 65.15%-1.56 +5.5 7
2022-10-30 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-332.4 1018 1233 13.80% 24.89% 61.30%-1.39 -20.5 7
2022-10-30 @ UE Engordany W 3-032.4 1233 1018 61.30% 24.89% 13.80%+1.39 +20.5 11
2022-10-30 Ordino W 1-048.9 848 1034 15.78% 25.49% 58.73%-1.21 +24.8 5
2022-10-30 @ Penya Encarnada L 0-148.9 1034 848 58.73% 25.49% 15.78%+1.21 -24.8 5
2022-10-30 Sant Julia W 5-137.0 1271 1106 56.68% 25.90% 17.43%+0.96 +27.6 19
2022-10-30 @ Atletic Escaldes L 1-537.0 1106 1271 17.43% 25.90% 56.68%-0.96 -27.6 5
2022-10-30 UE Santa Coloma L 0-143.4 1269 1269 36.28% 27.46% 36.26%-0.06 -16.6 12
2022-10-30 @ FC Santa Coloma W 1-043.4 1269 1269 36.26% 27.46% 36.28%+0.06 +16.6 12
2022-11-06 FC Santa Coloma D 0-047.8 1299 1252 42.77% 27.33% 29.90%+0.23 -1.3 20
2022-11-06 @ Atletic Escaldes D 0-047.8 1252 1299 29.90% 27.33% 42.77%-0.23 +1.3 13
2022-11-06 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-331.7 1010 1253 12.07% 24.23% 63.71%-1.56 -18.0 5
2022-11-06 @ Ordino W 3-031.7 1253 1010 63.71% 24.23% 12.07%+1.56 +18.0 14
2022-11-06 Sant Julia W 4-042.2 997 1078 25.76% 27.07% 47.17%-0.56 +73.1 10
2022-11-06 @ UE Engordany L 0-442.2 1078 997 47.17% 27.07% 25.76%+0.56 -73.1 5
2022-11-06 UE Santa Coloma L 0-229.5 873 1285 5.48% 19.42% 75.10%-2.61 -5.3 5
2022-11-06 @ Penya Encarnada W 2-029.5 1285 873 75.10% 19.42% 5.48%+2.61 +5.3 15
2022-11-13 Atletic Escaldes L 0-330.6 1005 1297 9.59% 22.96% 67.45%-1.86 -14.3 5
2022-11-13 @ Sant Julia W 3-030.6 1297 1005 67.45% 22.96% 9.59%+1.86 +14.3 23
2022-11-13 Ordino W 1-034.2 1253 992 65.14% 23.78% 11.09%+1.56 +6.0 16
2022-11-13 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-134.2 992 1253 11.09% 23.78% 65.14%-1.56 -6.0 5
2022-11-13 Penya Encarnada W 8-027.3 1271 867 74.60% 19.69% 5.71%+2.44 +20.4 17
2022-11-13 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-827.3 867 1271 5.71% 19.69% 74.60%-2.44 -20.4 5
2022-11-13 UE Engordany W 2-139.8 1291 1070 61.75% 24.78% 13.47%+1.30 +6.9 18
2022-11-13 @ UE Santa Coloma L 1-239.8 1070 1291 13.47% 24.78% 61.75%-1.30 -6.9 10
2022-11-20 FC Santa Coloma L 0-328.2 847 1259 5.49% 19.42% 75.09%-2.60 -7.8 5
2022-11-20 @ Penya Encarnada W 3-028.2 1259 847 75.09% 19.42% 5.49%+2.60 +7.8 19
2022-11-20 Ordino D 1-152.7 1312 986 69.78% 22.02% 8.20%+1.96 -6.3 24
2022-11-20 @ Atletic Escaldes D 1-152.7 986 1312 8.20% 22.02% 69.78%-1.96 +6.3 6
2022-11-22 UE Santa Coloma L 1-336.4 991 1297 8.98% 22.56% 68.46%-1.95 -7.9 5
2022-11-22 @ Sant Julia W 3-136.4 1297 991 68.46% 22.56% 8.98%+1.95 +7.9 21
2022-11-24 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-431.4 1063 1292 12.98% 24.59% 62.43%-1.47 -25.2 10
2022-11-24 @ UE Engordany W 4-031.4 1292 1063 62.43% 24.59% 12.98%+1.47 +25.2 20
2022-11-27 Atletic Escaldes D 0-048.1 1305 1305 36.27% 27.46% 36.27%-0.06 +0.0 22
2022-11-27 @ UE Santa Coloma D 0-048.1 1305 1305 36.27% 27.46% 36.27%+0.06 +0.0 25
2022-11-27 Penya Encarnada D 1-151.3 992 839 55.38% 26.12% 18.50%+0.89 -3.6 7
2022-11-27 @ Ordino D 1-151.3 839 992 18.50% 26.12% 55.38%-0.89 +3.5 6
2022-11-27 Sant Julia W 12-028.9 1317 983 70.31% 21.79% 7.90%+2.01 +43.1 23
2022-11-27 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-1228.9 983 1317 7.90% 21.79% 70.31%-2.01 -43.1 5
2022-11-27 UE Engordany W 6-030.9 1267 1038 62.49% 24.58% 12.93%+1.36 +36.8 22
2022-11-27 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-630.9 1038 1267 12.93% 24.58% 62.49%-1.36 -36.8 10
2022-12-04 FC Santa Coloma L 0-329.1 940 1304 6.87% 20.89% 72.24%-2.31 -10.0 5
2022-12-04 @ Sant Julia W 3-029.1 1304 940 72.24% 20.89% 6.87%+2.31 +10.0 25
2022-12-04 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 2-257.3 1305 1360 28.90% 27.28% 43.82%-0.39 +1.0 23
2022-12-04 @ UE Santa Coloma D 2-257.3 1360 1305 43.82% 27.28% 28.90%+0.39 -1.0 24
2022-12-04 Ordino L 0-340.4 1001 988 38.13% 27.45% 34.42%+0.02 -47.2 10
2022-12-04 @ UE Engordany W 3-040.4 988 1001 34.42% 27.45% 38.13%-0.02 +47.2 10
2022-12-04 Penya Encarnada W 4-026.6 1305 843 77.79% 17.87% 4.34%+2.80 +7.8 28
2022-12-04 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-426.6 843 1305 4.34% 17.87% 77.79%-2.80 -7.8 6
2022-12-11 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 2-257.4 1313 1359 30.01% 27.33% 42.65%-0.34 +0.8 29
2022-12-11 @ Atletic Escaldes D 2-257.4 1359 1313 42.65% 27.33% 30.01%+0.34 -0.8 25
2022-12-11 Sant Julia L 2-355.9 1036 930 50.22% 26.80% 22.98%+0.60 -19.3 10
2022-12-11 @ Ordino W 3-255.9 930 1036 22.98% 26.80% 50.22%-0.60 +19.3 8
2022-12-11 UE Engordany D 1-151.2 835 954 21.61% 26.63% 51.75%-0.79 +2.8 7
2022-12-11 @ Penya Encarnada D 1-151.2 954 835 51.75% 26.63% 21.61%+0.79 -2.8 11
2022-12-11 UE Santa Coloma W 3-040.6 1314 1306 37.34% 27.45% 35.20%-0.01 +44.5 28
2022-12-11 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-340.6 1306 1314 35.20% 27.45% 37.34%+0.01 -44.6 23
2022-12-17 Atletic Escaldes L 0-329.2 951 1314 6.92% 20.94% 72.13%-2.30 -10.0 11
2022-12-17 @ UE Engordany W 3-029.2 1314 951 72.13% 20.94% 6.92%+2.30 +10.0 32
2022-12-18 FC Santa Coloma W 2-149.5 1358 1358 36.23% 27.46% 36.32%-0.06 +15.7 28
2022-12-18 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-249.5 1358 1358 36.32% 27.46% 36.23%+0.06 -15.7 28
2022-12-18 Ordino D 1-152.0 1262 1016 63.86% 24.18% 11.96%+1.46 -5.2 24
2022-12-18 @ UE Santa Coloma D 1-152.0 1016 1262 11.96% 24.18% 63.86%-1.46 +5.2 11
2022-12-18 Penya Encarnada L 2-356.1 949 838 50.83% 26.74% 22.44%+0.63 -19.5 8
2022-12-18 @ Sant Julia W 3-256.1 838 949 22.44% 26.74% 50.83%-0.63 +19.5 10
2023-01-29 FC Santa Coloma L 1-434.7 1022 1343 8.40% 22.16% 69.45%-2.04 -10.5 11
2023-01-29 @ Ordino W 4-134.7 1343 1022 69.45% 22.16% 8.40%+2.04 +10.5 31
2023-01-29 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-626.6 929 1374 4.73% 18.44% 76.83%-2.80 -12.5 8
2023-01-29 @ Sant Julia W 6-026.6 1374 929 76.83% 18.44% 4.73%+2.80 +12.5 31
2023-01-29 UE Engordany W 2-030.1 1324 941 73.36% 20.34% 6.30%+2.31 +6.2 35
2023-01-29 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-230.1 941 1324 6.30% 20.34% 73.36%-2.31 -6.2 11
2023-01-29 UE Santa Coloma D 1-153.2 857 1257 5.83% 19.83% 74.34%-2.52 +7.0 11
2023-01-29 @ Penya Encarnada D 1-153.2 1257 857 74.34% 19.83% 5.83%+2.52 -7.0 25
2023-02-05 Atletic Escaldes W 2-045.1 1250 1330 25.76% 27.08% 47.16%-0.56 +38.5 28
2023-02-05 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-245.1 1330 1250 47.16% 27.08% 25.76%+0.56 -38.5 35
2023-02-05 Ordino L 0-151.9 1386 1011 72.91% 20.57% 6.53%+2.26 -29.8 31
2023-02-05 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes W 1-051.9 1011 1386 6.53% 20.57% 72.91%-2.26 +29.8 14
2023-02-05 Penya Encarnada W 3-239.1 1353 864 79.11% 17.06% 3.83%+2.96 +1.7 34
2023-02-05 @ FC Santa Coloma L 2-339.1 864 1353 3.83% 17.06% 79.11%-2.96 -1.7 11
2023-02-05 Sant Julia W 2-040.4 935 917 38.85% 27.44% 33.71%+0.05 +29.7 14
2023-02-05 @ UE Engordany L 0-240.4 917 935 33.71% 27.44% 38.85%-0.05 -29.7 8
2023-02-12 FC Santa Coloma D 0-048.5 1288 1355 27.40% 27.19% 45.40%-0.47 +1.8 29
2023-02-12 @ UE Santa Coloma D 0-048.5 1355 1288 45.40% 27.19% 27.40%+0.47 -1.8 35
2023-02-12 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 2-259.0 863 1357 3.74% 16.90% 79.35%-3.11 +5.7 12
2023-02-12 @ Penya Encarnada D 2-259.0 1357 863 79.35% 16.90% 3.74%+3.11 -5.7 32
2023-02-12 Sant Julia W 6-130.3 1292 887 74.64% 19.67% 5.70%+2.44 +10.8 38
2023-02-12 @ Atletic Escaldes L 1-630.3 887 1292 5.70% 19.67% 74.64%-2.44 -10.8 8
2023-02-12 UE Engordany L 1-250.3 1041 965 46.60% 27.12% 26.28%+0.41 -19.1 14
2023-02-12 @ Ordino W 2-150.3 965 1041 26.28% 27.12% 46.60%-0.41 +19.0 17
2023-02-19 Atletic Escaldes L 0-343.3 1353 1303 43.28% 27.31% 29.42%+0.25 -52.1 35
2023-02-19 @ FC Santa Coloma W 3-043.3 1303 1353 29.42% 27.31% 43.28%-0.25 +52.1 41
2023-02-19 Ordino W 3-257.1 876 1022 19.14% 26.24% 54.61%-0.96 +20.8 11
2023-02-19 @ Sant Julia L 2-357.1 1022 876 54.61% 26.24% 19.14%+0.96 -20.8 14
2023-02-19 Penya Encarnada W 1-038.3 984 868 51.33% 26.68% 21.99%+0.66 +11.3 20
2023-02-19 @ UE Engordany L 0-138.3 868 984 21.99% 26.68% 51.33%-0.66 -11.3 12
2023-02-19 UE Santa Coloma W 1-041.5 1351 1290 44.65% 27.24% 28.11%+0.32 +13.7 35
2023-02-19 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-141.5 1290 1351 28.11% 27.24% 44.65%-0.32 -13.7 29
2023-02-26 Inter Club d'Escaldes D 1-152.5 1301 1365 27.78% 27.22% 45.00%-0.45 +1.6 36
2023-02-26 @ FC Santa Coloma D 1-152.5 1365 1301 45.00% 27.22% 27.78%+0.45 -1.6 36
2023-02-26 Ordino W 6-131.3 1355 1001 71.56% 21.22% 7.22%+2.13 +14.0 44
2023-02-26 @ Atletic Escaldes L 1-631.3 1001 1355 7.22% 21.22% 71.56%-2.13 -14.0 14
2023-02-26 Sant Julia D 1-151.0 857 897 30.74% 27.36% 41.90%-0.31 +1.0 13
2023-02-26 @ Penya Encarnada D 1-151.0 897 857 41.90% 27.36% 30.74%+0.31 -1.0 12
2023-02-26 UE Engordany D 1-152.3 1276 995 66.61% 23.27% 10.12%+1.68 -5.7 30
2023-02-26 @ UE Santa Coloma D 1-152.3 995 1276 10.12% 23.27% 66.61%-1.68 +5.8 21
2023-03-04 FC Santa Coloma L 0-330.4 1001 1302 9.20% 22.71% 68.09%-1.92 -13.6 21
2023-03-04 @ UE Engordany W 3-030.4 1302 1001 68.09% 22.71% 9.20%+1.92 +13.6 39
2023-03-05 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-249.9 1369 1363 37.09% 27.45% 35.46%-0.02 -15.9 44
2023-03-05 @ Atletic Escaldes W 2-149.9 1363 1369 35.46% 27.45% 37.09%+0.02 +15.9 39
2023-03-05 Penya Encarnada L 0-344.6 987 858 52.85% 26.49% 20.65%+0.74 -61.7 14
2023-03-05 @ Ordino W 3-044.6 858 987 20.65% 26.49% 52.85%-0.74 +61.7 16
2023-03-05 UE Santa Coloma L 1-335.1 896 1270 6.56% 20.59% 72.85%-2.37 -5.6 12
2023-03-05 @ Sant Julia W 3-135.1 1270 896 72.85% 20.59% 6.56%+2.37 +5.6 33
2023-03-12 Atletic Escaldes L 0-130.9 920 1353 4.99% 18.79% 76.23%-2.73 -2.5 16
2023-03-12 @ Penya Encarnada W 1-030.9 1353 920 76.23% 18.79% 4.99%+2.73 +2.5 47
2023-03-12 Ordino W 3-135.5 1276 925 71.38% 21.30% 7.32%+2.11 +6.4 36
2023-03-12 @ UE Santa Coloma L 1-335.5 925 1276 7.32% 21.30% 71.38%-2.11 -6.4 14
2023-03-12 Sant Julia W 4-027.2 1316 891 75.82% 19.02% 5.16%+2.57 +9.4 42
2023-03-12 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-427.2 891 1316 5.16% 19.02% 75.82%-2.57 -9.5 12
2023-03-12 UE Engordany W 2-030.0 1379 987 73.89% 20.06% 6.05%+2.36 +6.0 42
2023-03-12 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-230.0 987 1379 6.05% 20.06% 73.89%-2.36 -6.0 21
2023-04-02 Atletic Escaldes L 0-143.2 1326 1355 32.13% 27.40% 40.46%-0.24 -15.2 42
2023-04-02 @ FC Santa Coloma W 1-043.2 1355 1326 40.46% 27.40% 32.13%+0.24 +15.2 50
2023-04-02 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-328.5 981 1385 5.72% 19.70% 74.58%-2.55 -8.1 21
2023-04-02 @ UE Engordany W 3-028.5 1385 981 74.58% 19.70% 5.72%+2.55 +8.1 45
2023-04-02 Penya Encarnada D 1-150.9 919 917 36.54% 27.46% 36.00%-0.05 -0.0 15
2023-04-02 @ Ordino D 1-150.9 917 919 36.00% 27.46% 36.54%+0.05 +0.1 17
2023-04-02 Sant Julia D 1-153.3 1282 881 74.45% 19.77% 5.78%+2.42 -7.0 37
2023-04-02 @ UE Santa Coloma D 1-153.3 881 1282 5.78% 19.77% 74.45%-2.42 +7.0 13
2023-04-16 FC Santa Coloma D 0-049.2 1393 1310 47.41% 27.06% 25.54%+0.45 -2.2 46
2023-04-16 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes D 0-049.2 1310 1393 25.54% 27.06% 47.41%-0.45 +2.2 43
2023-04-16 Ordino D 1-153.8 1371 919 77.21% 18.22% 4.57%+2.73 -7.4 51
2023-04-16 @ Atletic Escaldes D 1-153.8 919 1371 4.57% 18.22% 77.21%-2.73 +7.4 16
2023-04-16 UE Engordany W 3-043.2 888 973 25.27% 27.03% 47.70%-0.58 +56.5 16
2023-04-16 @ Sant Julia L 0-343.2 973 888 47.70% 27.03% 25.27%+0.58 -56.5 21
2023-04-16 UE Santa Coloma W 4-153.3 917 1275 7.06% 21.08% 71.86%-2.27 +68.1 20
2023-04-16 @ Penya Encarnada L 1-453.3 1275 917 71.86% 21.08% 7.06%+2.27 -68.1 37
2023-04-23 Atletic Escaldes L 1-340.9 1207 1363 18.24% 26.07% 55.69%-1.02 -15.7 37
2023-04-23 @ UE Santa Coloma W 3-140.9 1363 1207 55.69% 26.07% 18.24%+1.02 +15.7 54
2023-04-23 FC Santa Coloma L 0-727.4 917 1313 5.93% 19.93% 74.14%-2.50 -18.7 21
2023-04-23 @ UE Engordany W 7-027.4 1313 917 74.14% 19.93% 5.93%+2.50 +18.7 46
2023-04-23 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 3-539.7 926 1391 4.30% 17.82% 77.88%-2.92 -3.0 16
2023-04-23 @ Ordino W 5-339.7 1391 926 77.88% 17.82% 4.30%+2.92 +3.0 49
2023-04-23 Penya Encarnada L 1-245.6 945 985 30.68% 27.36% 41.97%-0.31 -13.9 16
2023-04-23 @ Sant Julia W 2-145.6 985 945 41.97% 27.36% 30.68%+0.31 +13.8 23
2023-04-30 Ordino W 3-134.5 1331 923 74.83% 19.57% 5.61%+2.46 +4.7 49
2023-04-30 @ FC Santa Coloma L 1-334.5 923 1331 5.61% 19.57% 74.83%-2.46 -4.7 16
2023-04-30 Sant Julia W 2-029.0 1379 931 77.03% 18.32% 4.65%+2.71 +4.4 57
2023-04-30 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-229.0 931 1379 4.65% 18.32% 77.03%-2.71 -4.4 16
2023-04-30 UE Engordany D 0-047.3 999 898 49.65% 26.86% 23.49%+0.57 -2.7 24
2023-04-30 @ Penya Encarnada D 0-047.3 898 999 23.49% 26.86% 49.65%-0.57 +2.7 22
2023-04-30 UE Santa Coloma W 1-036.5 1394 1192 60.16% 25.17% 14.67%+1.19 +7.9 52
2023-04-30 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-136.5 1192 1394 14.67% 25.17% 60.16%-1.19 -7.9 37
2023-05-07 Atletic Escaldes L 0-328.9 996 1383 6.19% 20.21% 73.60%-2.45 -8.9 24
2023-05-07 @ Penya Encarnada W 3-028.9 1383 996 73.60% 20.21% 6.19%+2.45 +8.9 60
2023-05-07 FC Santa Coloma D 0-048.0 1184 1336 18.53% 26.13% 55.34%-1.00 +4.0 38
2023-05-07 @ UE Santa Coloma D 0-048.0 1336 1184 55.34% 26.13% 18.53%+1.00 -4.0 50
2023-05-07 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-526.2 926 1402 4.09% 17.48% 78.43%-2.99 -8.9 16
2023-05-07 @ Sant Julia W 5-026.2 1402 926 78.43% 17.48% 4.09%+2.99 +8.9 55
2023-05-07 Ordino L 1-246.6 901 919 33.73% 27.44% 38.83%-0.17 -14.9 22
2023-05-07 @ UE Engordany W 2-146.6 919 901 38.83% 27.44% 33.73%+0.17 +14.9 19
2023-05-14 Atletic Escaldes L 1-727.8 886 1392 3.53% 16.53% 79.94%-3.18 -7.4 22
2023-05-14 @ UE Engordany W 7-127.8 1392 886 79.94% 16.53% 3.53%+3.18 +7.4 63
2023-05-14 Penya Encarnada W 1-031.2 1411 988 75.67% 19.10% 5.23%+2.55 +2.7 58
2023-05-14 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes L 0-131.2 988 1411 5.23% 19.10% 75.67%-2.55 -2.7 24
2023-05-14 Sant Julia W 4-027.5 1332 917 75.21% 19.36% 5.43%+2.50 +10.0 53
2023-05-14 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-427.5 917 1332 5.43% 19.36% 75.21%-2.50 -10.0 16
2023-05-14 UE Santa Coloma D 1-152.0 934 1188 11.49% 23.97% 64.54%-1.63 +5.4 20
2023-05-14 @ Ordino D 1-152.0 1188 934 64.54% 23.97% 11.49%+1.63 -5.4 39
2023-05-19 FC Santa Coloma W 2-050.0 985 1342 7.10% 21.10% 71.80%-2.26 +55.6 27
2023-05-19 @ Penya Encarnada L 0-250.0 1342 985 71.80% 21.10% 7.10%+2.26 -55.6 53
2023-05-21 Inter Club d'Escaldes L 1-250.7 1400 1413 34.32% 27.45% 38.23%-0.14 -15.1 63
2023-05-21 @ Atletic Escaldes W 2-150.7 1413 1400 38.23% 27.45% 34.32%+0.14 +15.1 61
2023-05-21 Ordino L 1-246.0 907 939 31.89% 27.40% 40.71%-0.25 -14.3 16
2023-05-21 @ Sant Julia W 2-146.0 939 907 40.71% 27.40% 31.89%+0.25 +14.3 23
2023-05-21 UE Engordany W 5-029.1 1182 878 68.25% 22.65% 9.10%+1.82 +21.7 42
2023-05-21 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-529.1 878 1182 9.10% 22.65% 68.25%-1.82 -21.7 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2023-02-05 6.53% Ordino 1011 1 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1386 0
2 2023-04-16 7.06% @ Penya Encarnada 917 4 UE Santa Coloma 1275 1
3 2023-05-19 7.10% @ Penya Encarnada 985 2 FC Santa Coloma 1342 0
4 2022-10-30 15.78% @ Penya Encarnada 848 1 Ordino 1034 0
5 2022-10-16 19.03% @ UE Engordany 990 2 Sant Julia 1137 1
6 2023-02-19 19.14% @ Sant Julia 876 3 Ordino 1022 2
7 2023-03-05 20.65% Penya Encarnada 858 3 @ Ordino 987 0
8 2022-12-18 22.44% Penya Encarnada 838 3 @ Sant Julia 949 2
9 2022-12-11 22.98% Sant Julia 930 3 @ Ordino 1036 2
10 2023-04-16 25.27% @ Sant Julia 888 3 UE Engordany 973 0
11 2022-11-06 25.76% @ UE Engordany 997 4 Sant Julia 1078 0
12 2023-02-05 25.76% @ UE Santa Coloma 1250 2 Atletic Escaldes 1330 0
13 2023-02-12 26.28% UE Engordany 965 2 @ Ordino 1041 1
14 2022-10-09 29.37% @ Atletic Escaldes 1221 2 Inter Club d'Escaldes 1272 1
15 2023-02-19 29.42% Atletic Escaldes 1303 3 @ FC Santa Coloma 1353 0
16 2022-09-11 31.33% Atletic Escaldes 1196 3 @ UE Santa Coloma 1232 2
17 2022-12-04 34.42% Ordino 988 3 @ UE Engordany 1001 0
18 2022-10-16 35.18% UE Santa Coloma 1246 3 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1254 1
19 2023-03-05 35.46% Inter Club d'Escaldes 1363 2 @ Atletic Escaldes 1369 1
20 2022-12-18 36.23% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1358 2 FC Santa Coloma 1358 1
21 2022-10-30 36.26% UE Santa Coloma 1269 1 @ FC Santa Coloma 1269 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-11-06 73.06 @ UE Engordany 4 997 25.76% Sant Julia 0 1078 47.17% 27.07%
2 2023-04-16 68.13 @ Penya Encarnada 4 917 7.06% UE Santa Coloma 1 1275 71.86% 21.08%
3 2023-03-05 61.72 Penya Encarnada 3 858 20.65% @ Ordino 0 987 52.85% 26.49%
4 2023-04-16 56.46 @ Sant Julia 3 888 25.27% UE Engordany 0 973 47.70% 27.03%
5 2023-05-19 55.59 @ Penya Encarnada 2 985 7.10% FC Santa Coloma 0 1342 71.80% 21.10%
6 2023-02-19 52.11 Atletic Escaldes 3 1303 29.42% @ FC Santa Coloma 0 1353 43.28% 27.31%
7 2022-12-04 47.24 Ordino 3 988 34.42% @ UE Engordany 0 1001 38.13% 27.45%
8 2022-12-11 44.55 @ FC Santa Coloma 3 1314 37.34% UE Santa Coloma 0 1306 35.20% 27.45%
9 2022-11-27 43.11 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 12 1317 70.31% Sant Julia 0 983 7.90% 21.79%
10 2022-10-09 42.30 UE Santa Coloma 3 1204 39.77% @ Sant Julia 0 1179 32.81% 27.42%
11 2023-02-05 38.50 @ UE Santa Coloma 2 1250 25.76% Atletic Escaldes 0 1330 47.16% 27.08%
12 2022-11-27 36.79 @ FC Santa Coloma 6 1267 62.49% UE Engordany 0 1038 12.93% 24.58%
13 2023-02-05 29.82 Ordino 1 1011 6.53% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 1386 72.91% 20.57%
14 2023-02-05 29.72 @ UE Engordany 2 935 38.85% Sant Julia 0 917 33.71% 27.44%
15 2022-10-16 27.75 UE Santa Coloma 3 1246 35.18% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1254 37.36% 27.45%
16 2022-10-30 27.59 @ Atletic Escaldes 5 1271 56.68% Sant Julia 1 1106 17.43% 25.90%
17 2022-11-24 25.21 Inter Club d'Escaldes 4 1292 62.43% @ UE Engordany 0 1063 12.98% 24.59%
18 2022-10-30 24.79 @ Penya Encarnada 1 848 15.78% Ordino 0 1034 58.73% 25.49%
19 2022-10-23 22.73 Atletic Escaldes 3 1248 59.15% @ Ordino 0 1057 15.44% 25.40%
20 2022-10-16 21.93 @ UE Engordany 2 990 19.03% Sant Julia 1 1137 54.74% 26.22%
21 2023-05-21 21.73 @ UE Santa Coloma 5 1182 68.25% UE Engordany 0 878 9.10% 22.65%
22 2022-10-09 21.71 @ Ordino 5 1031 38.94% UE Engordany 3 1012 33.62% 27.44%
23 2023-02-19 20.76 @ Sant Julia 3 876 19.14% Ordino 2 1022 54.61% 26.24%
24 2022-10-30 20.48 Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 1233 61.30% @ UE Engordany 0 1018 13.80% 24.89%
25 2022-11-13 20.38 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 8 1271 74.60% Penya Encarnada 0 867 5.71% 19.69%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-02-12 59.0 @ Penya Encarnada 2 863 3.74% Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1357 79.35% 16.90%
2 2022-12-11 57.4 @ Atletic Escaldes 2 1313 30.01% Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1359 42.65% 27.33%
3 2022-12-04 57.3 @ UE Santa Coloma 2 1305 28.90% Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1360 43.82% 27.28%
4 2023-02-19 57.1 @ Sant Julia 3 876 19.14% Ordino 2 1022 54.61% 26.24%
5 2022-09-18 56.3 @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1258 33.99% Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1275 38.57% 27.44%
6 2022-12-18 56.1 Penya Encarnada 3 838 22.44% @ Sant Julia 2 949 50.83% 26.74%
7 2022-12-11 55.9 Sant Julia 3 930 22.98% @ Ordino 2 1036 50.22% 26.80%
8 2023-04-16 53.8 @ Atletic Escaldes 1 1371 77.21% Ordino 1 919 4.57% 18.22%
9 2022-09-11 53.7 Atletic Escaldes 3 1196 31.33% @ UE Santa Coloma 2 1232 41.28% 27.38%
10 2023-04-02 53.3 @ UE Santa Coloma 1 1282 74.45% Sant Julia 1 881 5.78% 19.77%
11 2023-04-16 53.3 @ Penya Encarnada 4 917 7.06% UE Santa Coloma 1 1275 71.86% 21.08%
12 2023-01-29 53.2 @ Penya Encarnada 1 857 5.83% UE Santa Coloma 1 1257 74.34% 19.83%
13 2022-09-18 52.7 @ Penya Encarnada 1 875 7.67% UE Santa Coloma 1 1215 70.74% 21.60%
14 2022-11-20 52.7 @ Atletic Escaldes 1 1312 69.78% Ordino 1 986 8.20% 22.02%
15 2022-10-16 52.5 @ UE Engordany 2 990 19.03% Sant Julia 1 1137 54.74% 26.22%
16 2023-02-26 52.5 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1301 27.78% Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1365 45.00% 27.22%
17 2023-02-26 52.3 @ UE Santa Coloma 1 1276 66.61% UE Engordany 1 995 10.12% 23.27%
18 2022-10-23 52.1 @ UE Santa Coloma 1 1274 65.15% UE Engordany 1 1012 11.08% 23.77%
19 2022-12-18 52.0 @ UE Santa Coloma 1 1262 63.86% Ordino 1 1016 11.96% 24.18%
20 2023-05-14 52.0 @ Ordino 1 934 11.49% UE Santa Coloma 1 1188 64.54% 23.97%
21 2023-02-05 51.9 Ordino 1 1011 6.53% @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 1386 72.91% 20.57%
22 2022-10-16 51.8 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1264 60.97% Ordino 1 1053 14.05% 24.98%
23 2022-10-02 51.4 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 1 1274 49.19% Sant Julia 1 1177 23.91% 26.90%
24 2022-10-02 51.3 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1259 41.68% Atletic Escaldes 1 1220 30.95% 27.37%
25 2022-10-09 51.3 @ Ordino 5 1031 38.94% UE Engordany 3 1012 33.62% 27.44%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-05-07 26.2 Inter Club d'Escaldes 5 1402 78.43% @ Sant Julia 0 926 4.09% 17.48%
2 2022-12-04 26.6 @ Atletic Escaldes 4 1305 77.79% Penya Encarnada 0 843 4.34% 17.87%
3 2023-01-29 26.6 Inter Club d'Escaldes 6 1374 76.83% @ Sant Julia 0 929 4.73% 18.44%
4 2023-03-12 27.2 @ FC Santa Coloma 4 1316 75.82% Sant Julia 0 891 5.16% 19.02%
5 2022-11-13 27.3 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 8 1271 74.60% Penya Encarnada 0 867 5.71% 19.69%
6 2023-04-23 27.4 FC Santa Coloma 7 1313 74.14% @ UE Engordany 0 917 5.93% 19.93%
7 2023-05-14 27.5 @ FC Santa Coloma 4 1332 75.21% Sant Julia 0 917 5.43% 19.36%
8 2023-05-14 27.8 Atletic Escaldes 7 1392 79.94% @ UE Engordany 1 886 3.53% 16.53%
9 2022-11-20 28.2 FC Santa Coloma 3 1259 75.09% @ Penya Encarnada 0 847 5.49% 19.42%
10 2023-04-02 28.5 Inter Club d'Escaldes 3 1385 74.58% @ UE Engordany 0 981 5.72% 19.70%
11 2022-10-16 28.9 @ Atletic Escaldes 3 1239 72.91% Penya Encarnada 0 864 6.53% 20.57%
12 2022-11-27 28.9 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 12 1317 70.31% Sant Julia 0 983 7.90% 21.79%
13 2023-05-07 28.9 Atletic Escaldes 3 1383 73.60% @ Penya Encarnada 0 996 6.19% 20.21%
14 2023-04-30 29.0 @ Atletic Escaldes 2 1379 77.03% Sant Julia 0 931 4.65% 18.32%
15 2022-12-04 29.1 FC Santa Coloma 3 1304 72.24% @ Sant Julia 0 940 6.87% 20.89%
16 2023-05-21 29.1 @ UE Santa Coloma 5 1182 68.25% UE Engordany 0 878 9.10% 22.65%
17 2022-12-17 29.2 Atletic Escaldes 3 1314 72.13% @ UE Engordany 0 951 6.92% 20.94%
18 2022-11-06 29.5 UE Santa Coloma 2 1285 75.10% @ Penya Encarnada 0 873 5.48% 19.42%
19 2022-10-09 30.0 FC Santa Coloma 2 1258 73.66% @ Penya Encarnada 0 870 6.16% 20.18%
20 2023-03-12 30.0 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1379 73.89% UE Engordany 0 987 6.05% 20.06%
21 2023-01-29 30.1 @ Atletic Escaldes 2 1324 73.36% UE Engordany 0 941 6.30% 20.34%
22 2022-10-23 30.2 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1226 72.70% Penya Encarnada 0 854 6.63% 20.67%
23 2023-02-12 30.3 @ Atletic Escaldes 6 1292 74.64% Sant Julia 1 887 5.70% 19.67%
24 2023-03-04 30.4 FC Santa Coloma 3 1302 68.09% @ UE Engordany 0 1001 9.20% 22.71%
25 2022-11-13 30.6 Atletic Escaldes 3 1297 67.45% @ Sant Julia 0 1005 9.59% 22.96%