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2025-26 Primera Divisió Season

108 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Inter Club d Escaldes

54 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 2024-25

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

FC Santa Coloma

5.07 points above expected

44 points · 38.93 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Atletic Escaldes

11.01 points below expected

34 points · 45.01 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Inter Club d Escaldes Champion 24 17 3 4 54 47 24 +23 53.37 +0.63
2 UE Santa Coloma 24 15 6 3 51 45 13 +32 46.03 +4.97
3 FC Rangers 24 15 3 6 48 46 22 +24 46.99 +1.01
4 FC Santa Coloma 24 13 5 6 44 45 20 +25 38.93 +5.07
5 Atletic Escaldes 24 10 4 10 34 31 26 +5 45.01 -11.01
6 Penya Encarnada 24 7 3 14 24 19 41 -22 26.32 -2.32
7 Ordino 24 6 4 14 22 27 42 -15 25.32 -3.32
8 Carroi 24 4 5 15 17 15 55 -40 13.19 +3.81
9 Esperanca 24 2 5 17 11 15 47 -32 12.00 -1.00

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FC Santa Coloma 44 38.93 +5.07
2 UE Santa Coloma 51 46.03 +4.97
3 Carroi 17 13.19 +3.81
4 FC Rangers 48 46.99 +1.01
5 Inter Club d Escaldes 54 53.37 +0.63

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Atletic Escaldes 34 45.01 -11.01
2 Ordino 22 25.32 -3.32
3 Penya Encarnada 24 26.32 -2.32
4 Esperanca 11 12.00 -1.00
5 Inter Club d Escaldes 54 53.37 +0.63

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Esperanca 2 Mar 8 – Mar 22 1 in 105
2 Inter Club d Escaldes 8 Nov 23 – Jan 25 1 in 50
3 Carroi 2 Dec 17 – Dec 20 1 in 45
4 FC Santa Coloma 5 Feb 22 – Apr 19 1 in 26
5 UE Santa Coloma 4 Nov 5 – Nov 26 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inter Club d Escaldes 2 Mar 8 – Mar 22 1 in 155
2 FC Rangers 4 Dec 7 – Dec 21 1 in 40
3 Atletic Escaldes 3 Feb 8 – Feb 22 1 in 28
4 Esperanca 11 Nov 9 – Feb 1 1 in 27
5 Ordino 4 Nov 30 – Jan 18 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 UE Santa Coloma 11 Oct 22 – Dec 21 1 in 36
2 FC Santa Coloma 6 Oct 19 – Nov 23 1 in 27
3 Carroi 3 Dec 17 – Jan 18 1 in 23
4 Inter Club d Escaldes 12 Nov 23 – Mar 1 1 in 12
5 Esperanca 2 Feb 15 – Feb 22 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inter Club d Escaldes 3 Mar 8 – Apr 12 1 in 33
2 UE Santa Coloma 3 Mar 8 – Apr 12 1 in 20
3 Esperanca 18 Oct 11 – Feb 28 1 in 9
4 Carroi 11 Jan 18 – Apr 26 1 in 9
5 Ordino 6 Nov 23 – Jan 18 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Inter Club d Escaldes 1387 54 +10 10 10.0 -0.0
UE Santa Coloma 1341 51 +4 9 10.6 -1.6
FC Rangers 1343 48 +13 12 9.8 +2.2
FC Santa Coloma 1255 44 -14 7 9.0 -2.0
Atletic Escaldes 1261 34 -10 7 8.9 -1.9
Penya Encarnada 1045 24 -1 6 5.0 +1.0
Ordino 1043 22 +13 7 6.8 +0.2
Carroi 860 17 -3 4 1.8 +2.2
Esperanca 862 11 +18 4 2.3 +1.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AE CAR ESP FR FSC ICDE ORD PE USC
Atletic Escaldes —
3-0-0
7.73
3-0-0
7.87
0-0-3
3.84
0-1-2
5.45
0-0-3
3.09
1-2-0
6.85
3-0-0
6.71
0-1-2
4.13
Carroi
0-0-3
0.89
 —
1-1-1
4.61
0-0-3
0.89
1-0-2
1.21
1-0-2
0.62
1-0-2
2.22
0-2-1
2.17
0-2-1
0.90
Esperanca
0-0-3
0.77
1-1-1
3.84
 —
0-1-2
0.77
0-1-2
1.05
1-0-2
0.58
0-2-1
2.05
0-0-3
2.20
0-0-3
0.83
FC Rangers
3-0-0
4.61
3-0-0
7.73
2-1-0
7.88
 —
1-1-1
5.60
0-1-2
3.74
3-0-0
6.87
3-0-0
6.73
0-0-3
4.30
FC Santa Coloma
2-1-0
3.01
2-0-1
7.35
2-1-0
7.54
1-1-1
2.87
 —
1-1-1
2.50
1-0-2
6.43
3-0-0
5.64
1-1-1
3.38
Inter Club d Escaldes
3-0-0
5.37
2-0-1
8.06
2-0-1
8.11
2-1-0
4.71
1-1-1
5.98
 —
3-0-0
7.39
3-0-0
7.40
1-1-1
4.94
Ordino
0-2-1
1.67
2-0-1
6.27
1-2-0
6.44
0-0-3
1.65
2-0-1
2.07
0-0-3
1.18
 —
1-0-2
4.26
0-0-3
1.68
Penya Encarnada
0-0-3
1.80
1-2-0
6.32
3-0-0
6.29
0-0-3
1.78
0-0-3
2.82
0-0-3
1.18
2-0-1
4.19
 —
1-1-1
1.86
UE Santa Coloma
2-1-0
4.32
1-2-0
7.72
3-0-0
7.80
3-0-0
4.15
1-1-1
5.07
1-1-1
3.51
3-0-0
6.85
1-1-1
6.65
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.94 +11.2
Allowed 0.85 -10.3
Differential 0.93 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.19%7.41%7.87%3.24%2.78%2.31%33.80%
17.41%5.56%9.72%4.17%1.39%—28.24%
27.87%9.72%1.85%0.93%0.46%—20.83%
33.24%4.17%0.93%—0.46%0.46%9.26%
42.78%1.39%0.46%0.46%——5.09%
5+2.31%——0.46%——2.78%
Total33.80%28.24%20.83%9.26%5.09%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.34 +0.00
SD 1.39 1.39 2.20
CV 1.04 1.04 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 108

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%8.33%8.33%4.17%——33.33%
18.33%—8.33%8.33%——25.00%
212.50%4.17%4.17%4.17%——25.00%
312.50%—————12.50%
4—4.17%————4.17%
5+———————
Total45.83%16.67%20.83%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.08 +0.21
SD 1.20 1.18 1.86
CV 0.93 1.09 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.83%—8.33%16.67%—12.50%58.33%
1——8.33%8.33%8.33%—25.00%
2—12.50%————12.50%
3—4.17%————4.17%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.83%16.67%16.67%25.00%8.33%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 2.29 -1.67
SD 0.88 1.85 2.20
CV 1.40 0.81 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%16.67%12.50%8.33%8.33%4.17%58.33%
1—8.33%16.67%4.17%——29.17%
24.17%—4.17%———8.33%
3———————
4—4.17%————4.17%
5+———————
Total12.50%29.17%33.33%12.50%8.33%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 1.96 -1.33
SD 0.97 1.55 2.01
CV 1.55 0.79 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%8.33%4.17%———16.67%
1—8.33%8.33%———16.67%
216.67%16.67%————33.33%
38.33%12.50%———4.17%25.00%
48.33%—————8.33%
5+———————
Total37.50%45.83%12.50%——4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.92 0.92 +1.00
SD 1.21 1.10 1.74
CV 0.63 1.20 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%4.17%4.17%———20.83%
112.50%4.17%12.50%4.17%——33.33%
212.50%—4.17%———16.67%
34.17%4.17%8.33%———16.67%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+8.33%—————8.33%
Total54.17%12.50%29.17%4.17%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 0.83 +1.04
SD 1.83 1.01 2.26
CV 0.97 1.21 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.17%———4.17%
116.67%12.50%4.17%—4.17%—37.50%
212.50%16.67%—4.17%——33.33%
3—12.50%————12.50%
48.33%—————8.33%
5+———4.17%——4.17%
Total37.50%41.67%8.33%8.33%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 1.00 +0.96
SD 1.20 1.10 1.63
CV 0.61 1.10 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%12.50%12.50%—8.33%—41.67%
14.17%4.17%12.50%8.33%——29.17%
2—8.33%4.17%—4.17%—16.67%
3—4.17%————4.17%
4———4.17%——4.17%
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total16.67%29.17%29.17%12.50%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.75 -0.62
SD 1.36 1.26 1.93
CV 1.21 0.72 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%12.50%16.67%—8.33%4.17%50.00%
116.67%4.17%8.33%4.17%——33.33%
2—8.33%————8.33%
3————4.17%—4.17%
4——4.17%———4.17%
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%29.17%4.17%12.50%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 1.71 -0.92
SD 1.06 1.57 1.91
CV 1.34 0.92 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%4.17%————20.83%
18.33%8.33%8.33%———25.00%
212.50%20.83%————33.33%
34.17%—————4.17%
44.17%4.17%————8.33%
5+8.33%—————8.33%
Total54.17%37.50%8.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 0.54 +1.33
SD 1.73 0.66 1.95
CV 0.92 1.21 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Inter Club d Escaldes 1359 54 53.37 +0.63 51.0% 38 43 49 54 57 63 68
FC Rangers 1343 48 46.99 +1.01 58.0% 34 37 43 47 51 55 63
UE Santa Coloma 1341 51 46.03 +4.97 79.0% 29 36 42 46 50 56 64
Atletic Escaldes 1261 34 45.01 -11.01 3.0% 31 35 41 45 48 54 57
FC Santa Coloma 1255 44 38.93 +5.07 83.0% 25 30 35 38 42 47 51
Penya Encarnada 1045 24 26.32 -2.32 41.0% 15 18 22 26 29 36 44
Ordino 1043 22 25.32 -3.32 36.0% 15 17 21 25 29 35 40
Esperanca 890 11 12.00 -1.00 49.0% 3 5 9 12 16 19 24
Carroi 860 17 13.19 +3.81 87.0% 6 7 10 13 16 19 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -2.5% * Slight Edge: -2.5% to 0% * Clear Edge: 0% to 6% * Strong Edge: 6% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.19%
Strong Edge
46.30%17.59%36.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 35.51 Elo pts.
224 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.35 goals
Neutral
-2+0.16+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
63%
Inter Club d Escaldes, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.12/gm
Tight Race
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.38 * Some Luck: 4.38 to 6.57 * Lucky: 6.57 to 8.76 * Wild Swing: 8.76 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.59 * Close: 0.59 to 0.89 * Off: 0.89 to 1.18 * Way Off: 1.18 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.77 points
Some Luck
05.4814
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.44
Pinpoint
00.741.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
87.00%
Carroi
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Atletic Escaldes
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.1 * Moderate Separation: 2.1 to 2.35 * Strong Separation: 2.35 to 2.5 * Wide Separation: 2.5 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 83.5% * Slight Edge: 83.5% to 89% * Clear Edge: 89% to 94% * Wide Edge: 94% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98.5% * Strong Edge: 98.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 40.5% * Some Drama: 40.5% to 45.5% * Frequent: 45.5% to 53% * Very Frequent: 53% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 28% * Occasional: 28% to 33.5% * Frequent: 33.5% to 41.5% * Very Frequent: 41.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Top-Heavy
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 206.94
2.37
Strong Separation
12.12.353.25
Interquartile Edge
85%
Slight Edge
50%83.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
95%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Rare
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.49 * Slight Separation: 0.49 to 0.54 * Notable Separation: 0.54 to 0.6 * Lopsided: 0.6 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.56 * Some Carryover: 0.56 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.86 * Near-Lock: 0.86 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15.5% * Very Shaky: 15.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.49
Highly Predictable
00.472
Matchup Imbalance
0.56
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.79
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.88
Near-Lock
00.560.761
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Upset-Prone
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.32
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.91
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.068
Well Within Noise
00.1440.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Esperanca 2
Inter Club d Escaldes 0

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Inter Club d Escaldes63.00%19.00%12.00%5.00%1.00%————
UE Santa Coloma13.00%23.00%31.00%17.00%13.00%3.00%———
FC Rangers19.00%29.00%18.00%22.00%12.00%————
FC Santa Coloma1.00%7.00%8.00%30.00%47.00%7.00%———
Atletic Escaldes4.00%22.00%29.00%24.00%19.00%2.00%———
Penya Encarnada——2.00%2.00%3.00%43.00%44.00%5.00%1.00%
Ordino————5.00%44.00%44.00%7.00%—
Carroi—————1.00%6.00%53.00%40.00%
Esperanca——————6.00%35.00%59.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Qualified for relegation playoff
Atletic Escaldes 100% —
Carroi 60.00% 40.00%
Esperanca 41.00% 59.00%
FC Rangers 100% —
FC Santa Coloma 100% —
Inter Club d Escaldes 100% —
Ordino 100% —
Penya Encarnada 99.00% 1.00%
UE Santa Coloma 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-10-11 Inter Club d Escaldes L 1-234.2 854 1388 4.25% 11.54% 84.21%-2.22 -0.8 0
2025-10-11 @ Esperanca W 2-134.2 1388 854 84.21% 11.54% 4.25%+2.22 +0.8 3
2025-10-12 Carroi W 3-024.4 1319 879 83.48% 11.89% 4.63%+2.12 +2.6 3
2025-10-12 @ FC Rangers L 0-324.4 879 1319 4.63% 11.89% 83.48%-2.12 -2.6 0
2025-10-18 Atletic Escaldes W 2-147.9 1322 1342 43.29% 18.47% 38.23%+0.07 +7.0 6
2025-10-18 @ FC Rangers L 1-247.9 1342 1322 38.23% 18.47% 43.29%-0.07 -7.0 0
2025-10-19 UE Santa Coloma W 1-044.1 1176 1267 33.44% 18.38% 48.18%-0.25 +9.0 3
2025-10-19 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-144.1 1267 1176 48.18% 18.38% 33.44%+0.25 -9.0 0
2025-10-19 Esperanca D 1-156.0 1072 853 70.24% 16.16% 13.60%+1.14 -2.5 1
2025-10-19 @ Ordino D 1-156.0 853 1072 13.60% 16.16% 70.24%-1.14 +2.6 1
2025-10-19 Carroi W 2-138.2 1100 876 70.59% 16.09% 13.33%+1.16 +2.7 3
2025-10-19 @ Penya Encarnada L 1-238.2 876 1100 13.33% 16.09% 70.59%-1.16 -2.7 0
2025-10-22 Penya Encarnada W 1-036.9 1185 1103 56.72% 17.94% 25.33%+0.52 +5.2 6
2025-10-22 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-136.9 1103 1185 25.33% 17.94% 56.72%-0.52 -5.2 3
2025-10-22 UE Santa Coloma L 0-233.4 1070 1258 22.31% 17.65% 60.04%-0.68 -8.8 1
2025-10-22 @ Ordino W 2-033.4 1258 1070 60.04% 17.65% 22.31%+0.68 +8.8 3
2025-10-25 Ordino W 2-136.3 1389 1061 77.74% 14.18% 8.09%+1.62 +1.6 6
2025-10-25 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 1-236.3 1061 1389 8.09% 14.18% 77.74%-1.62 -1.6 1
2025-10-26 FC Rangers L 0-226.9 855 1329 5.77% 12.79% 81.43%-1.95 -2.2 1
2025-10-26 @ Esperanca W 2-026.9 1329 855 81.43% 12.79% 5.77%+1.95 +2.2 9
2025-10-26 FC Santa Coloma D 2-261.9 1335 1190 63.58% 17.25% 19.17%+0.81 -1.5 1
2025-10-26 @ Atletic Escaldes D 2-261.9 1190 1335 19.17% 17.25% 63.58%-0.81 +1.5 7
2025-10-26 Penya Encarnada D 1-156.0 1267 1097 65.91% 16.93% 17.16%+0.91 -2.2 4
2025-10-26 @ UE Santa Coloma D 1-156.0 1097 1267 17.16% 16.93% 65.91%-0.91 +2.2 4
2025-10-29 Carroi W 3-024.2 1334 873 84.32% 11.49% 4.19%+2.21 +2.3 4
2025-10-29 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-324.2 873 1334 4.19% 11.49% 84.32%-2.21 -2.3 0
2025-10-29 FC Rangers D 1-157.6 1391 1331 54.00% 18.12% 27.88%+0.42 -1.1 7
2025-10-29 @ Inter Club d Escaldes D 1-157.6 1331 1391 27.88% 18.12% 54.00%-0.42 +1.1 10
2025-11-01 Atletic Escaldes L 0-232.1 1100 1336 17.95% 17.06% 64.99%-0.90 -7.2 4
2025-11-01 @ Penya Encarnada W 2-032.1 1336 1100 64.99% 17.06% 17.95%+0.90 +7.2 7
2025-11-02 FC Rangers L 0-231.0 1060 1332 15.20% 16.54% 68.26%-1.06 -6.1 1
2025-11-02 @ Ordino W 2-031.0 1332 1060 68.26% 16.54% 15.20%+1.06 +6.1 13
2025-11-02 Esperanca D 0-052.1 1191 853 78.34% 13.97% 7.69%+1.67 -3.6 8
2025-11-02 @ FC Santa Coloma D 0-052.1 853 1191 7.69% 13.97% 78.34%-1.67 +3.6 2
2025-11-02 Carroi W 3-131.1 1390 871 86.55% 10.32% 3.12%+2.47 +1.0 10
2025-11-02 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 1-331.1 871 1390 3.12% 10.32% 86.55%-2.47 -1.0 0
2025-11-05 Atletic Escaldes W 2-041.7 1265 1343 35.16% 18.43% 46.42%-0.19 +16.5 7
2025-11-05 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-241.7 1343 1265 46.42% 18.43% 35.16%+0.19 -16.5 7
2025-11-06 Ordino L 3-457.9 1092 1053 51.38% 18.26% 30.36%+0.33 -8.3 4
2025-11-06 @ Penya Encarnada W 4-357.9 1053 1092 30.36% 18.26% 51.38%-0.33 +8.3 4
2025-11-09 FC Santa Coloma D 0-051.7 1338 1188 64.07% 17.19% 18.74%+0.83 -2.2 14
2025-11-09 @ FC Rangers D 0-051.7 1188 1338 18.74% 17.19% 64.07%-0.83 +2.2 9
2025-11-09 Penya Encarnada L 0-134.6 857 1084 18.74% 17.19% 64.07%-0.85 -4.0 2
2025-11-09 @ Esperanca W 1-034.6 1084 857 64.07% 17.19% 18.74%+0.85 +4.0 7
2025-11-09 Carroi W 3-136.6 1062 870 67.90% 16.60% 15.49%+1.01 +5.4 7
2025-11-09 @ Ordino L 1-336.6 870 1062 15.49% 16.60% 67.90%-1.01 -5.4 0
2025-11-09 Inter Club d Escaldes W 4-146.6 1281 1391 31.17% 18.30% 50.53%-0.33 +21.8 10
2025-11-09 @ UE Santa Coloma L 1-446.6 1391 1281 50.53% 18.30% 31.17%+0.33 -21.8 10
2025-11-16 Esperanca W 2-145.0 865 853 47.79% 18.39% 33.82%+0.21 +6.3 3
2025-11-16 @ Carroi L 1-245.0 853 865 33.82% 18.39% 47.79%-0.21 -6.3 2
2025-11-23 FC Rangers L 1-337.4 1088 1336 17.04% 16.90% 66.06%-0.95 -5.9 7
2025-11-23 @ Penya Encarnada W 3-137.4 1336 1088 66.06% 16.90% 17.04%+0.95 +5.9 17
2025-11-23 UE Santa Coloma L 0-524.9 871 1303 7.07% 13.63% 79.29%-1.77 -6.5 3
2025-11-23 @ Carroi W 5-024.9 1303 871 79.29% 13.63% 7.07%+1.77 +6.5 13
2025-11-23 Ordino W 3-138.6 1190 1067 61.28% 17.53% 21.20%+0.71 +7.3 12
2025-11-23 @ FC Santa Coloma L 1-338.6 1067 1190 21.20% 17.53% 61.28%-0.71 -7.2 7
2025-11-23 Atletic Escaldes W 1-040.2 1369 1327 51.76% 18.24% 30.00%+0.34 +6.1 13
2025-11-23 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 0-140.2 1327 1369 30.00% 18.24% 51.76%-0.34 -6.1 7
2025-11-26 UE Santa Coloma L 0-424.4 846 1310 6.07% 13.00% 80.92%-1.91 -4.5 2
2025-11-26 @ Esperanca W 4-024.4 1310 846 80.92% 13.00% 6.07%+1.91 +4.5 16
2025-11-26 Inter Club d Escaldes L 1-340.1 1197 1375 23.40% 17.77% 58.84%-0.63 -8.0 12
2025-11-26 @ FC Santa Coloma W 3-140.1 1375 1197 58.84% 17.77% 23.40%+0.63 +8.0 16
2025-11-27 Atletic Escaldes D 0-051.4 1060 1321 16.05% 16.72% 67.23%-1.00 +2.6 8
2025-11-27 @ Ordino D 0-051.4 1321 1060 67.23% 16.72% 16.05%+1.00 -2.6 8
2025-11-30 Esperanca W 3-131.2 1342 842 85.87% 10.69% 3.43%+2.39 +1.1 20
2025-11-30 @ FC Rangers L 1-331.2 842 1342 3.43% 10.69% 85.87%-2.39 -1.1 2
2025-11-30 Ordino W 1-032.1 1318 1062 73.01% 15.54% 11.45%+1.30 +2.4 11
2025-11-30 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-132.1 1062 1318 11.45% 15.54% 73.01%-1.30 -2.4 8
2025-11-30 FC Santa Coloma L 0-633.9 1082 1189 31.40% 18.31% 50.29%-0.32 -33.1 7
2025-11-30 @ Penya Encarnada W 6-033.9 1189 1082 50.29% 18.31% 31.40%+0.32 +33.1 15
2025-11-30 Carroi D 0-052.8 1314 864 83.86% 11.71% 4.43%+2.16 -4.0 17
2025-11-30 @ UE Santa Coloma D 0-052.8 864 1314 4.43% 11.71% 83.86%-2.16 +4.0 4
2025-12-06 Carroi W 2-025.4 1383 868 86.40% 10.41% 3.19%+2.45 +1.2 19
2025-12-06 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 0-225.4 868 1383 3.19% 10.41% 86.40%-2.45 -1.2 4
2025-12-07 FC Rangers W 2-148.3 1310 1343 41.54% 18.49% 39.97%+0.01 +7.3 20
2025-12-07 @ UE Santa Coloma L 1-248.3 1343 1310 39.97% 18.49% 41.54%-0.01 -7.3 20
2025-12-07 Atletic Escaldes L 0-129.3 841 1321 5.59% 12.66% 81.75%-1.98 -1.1 2
2025-12-07 @ Esperanca W 1-029.3 1321 841 81.75% 12.66% 5.59%+1.98 +1.1 14
2025-12-07 Penya Encarnada L 2-450.6 1060 1049 47.68% 18.39% 33.92%+0.21 -13.1 8
2025-12-07 @ Ordino W 4-250.6 1049 1060 33.92% 18.39% 47.68%-0.21 +13.1 10
2025-12-10 FC Rangers W 1-042.1 1317 1336 43.62% 18.47% 37.91%+0.08 +7.4 23
2025-12-10 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-142.1 1336 1317 37.91% 18.47% 43.62%-0.08 -7.4 20
2025-12-10 Esperanca W 3-023.9 1322 840 85.19% 11.05% 3.76%+2.31 +2.1 17
2025-12-10 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-323.9 840 1322 3.76% 11.05% 85.19%-2.31 -2.0 2
2025-12-14 Inter Club d Escaldes L 0-142.9 1328 1384 38.31% 18.48% 43.21%-0.09 -7.5 20
2025-12-14 @ FC Rangers W 1-042.9 1384 1328 43.21% 18.48% 38.31%+0.09 +7.5 22
2025-12-14 Penya Encarnada W 2-029.4 1324 1062 73.44% 15.43% 11.13%+1.33 +4.5 20
2025-12-14 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-229.4 1062 1324 11.13% 15.43% 73.44%-1.33 -4.5 10
2025-12-14 Carroi W 7-025.5 1222 867 79.29% 13.63% 7.08%+1.74 +9.0 18
2025-12-14 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-725.5 867 1222 7.08% 13.63% 79.29%-1.74 -9.0 4
2025-12-14 Esperanca W 7-023.7 1325 838 85.38% 10.95% 3.66%+2.33 +4.4 26
2025-12-14 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-723.7 838 1325 3.66% 10.95% 85.38%-2.33 -4.4 2
2025-12-17 FC Santa Coloma W 2-156.5 858 1231 9.43% 14.79% 75.78%-1.50 +12.9 7
2025-12-17 @ Carroi L 1-256.5 1231 858 75.78% 14.79% 9.43%+1.50 -12.9 18
2025-12-17 Penya Encarnada W 4-025.5 1391 1058 78.08% 14.06% 7.86%+1.65 +5.9 25
2025-12-17 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 0-425.5 1058 1391 7.86% 14.06% 78.08%-1.65 -5.9 10
2025-12-20 Ordino W 3-149.9 871 1047 23.58% 17.79% 58.63%-0.62 +17.6 10
2025-12-20 @ Carroi L 1-349.9 1047 871 58.63% 17.79% 23.58%+0.62 -17.6 8
2025-12-21 FC Rangers W 2-042.3 1219 1321 32.04% 18.33% 49.63%-0.30 +17.5 21
2025-12-21 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-242.3 1321 1219 49.63% 18.33% 32.04%+0.30 -17.5 20
2025-12-21 UE Santa Coloma L 1-250.1 1328 1329 46.07% 18.43% 35.50%+0.15 -8.2 20
2025-12-21 @ Atletic Escaldes W 2-150.1 1329 1328 35.50% 18.43% 46.07%-0.15 +8.2 29
2025-12-21 Esperanca W 2-024.9 1397 833 88.09% 9.44% 2.47%+2.67 +0.9 28
2025-12-21 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 0-224.9 833 1397 2.47% 9.44% 88.09%-2.67 -0.9 2
2026-01-17 UE Santa Coloma W 2-145.5 1398 1337 54.15% 18.12% 27.74%+0.43 +5.3 31
2026-01-17 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 1-245.5 1337 1398 27.74% 18.12% 54.15%-0.43 -5.3 29
2026-01-18 Ordino W 4-026.5 1303 1029 74.30% 15.20% 10.49%+1.38 +8.0 23
2026-01-18 @ FC Rangers L 0-426.5 1029 1303 10.49% 15.20% 74.30%-1.38 -8.0 8
2026-01-18 Penya Encarnada D 0-050.9 889 1052 24.93% 17.91% 57.16%-0.57 +1.6 11
2026-01-18 @ Carroi D 0-050.9 1052 889 57.16% 17.91% 24.93%+0.57 -1.6 11
2026-01-18 FC Santa Coloma L 0-228.0 832 1236 8.13% 14.20% 77.67%-1.64 -3.2 2
2026-01-18 @ Esperanca W 2-028.0 1236 832 77.67% 14.20% 8.13%+1.64 +3.2 24
2026-01-24 Penya Encarnada W 4-026.8 1311 1050 73.40% 15.44% 11.16%+1.32 +8.5 26
2026-01-24 @ FC Rangers L 0-426.8 1050 1311 11.16% 15.44% 73.40%-1.32 -8.5 11
2026-01-25 Inter Club d Escaldes L 0-141.9 1320 1404 34.51% 18.41% 47.08%-0.21 -6.8 20
2026-01-25 @ Atletic Escaldes W 1-041.9 1404 1320 47.08% 18.41% 34.51%+0.21 +6.8 34
2026-01-25 Ordino L 1-241.2 829 1021 21.93% 17.61% 60.46%-0.70 -4.3 2
2026-01-25 @ Esperanca W 2-141.2 1021 829 60.46% 17.61% 21.93%+0.70 +4.3 11
2026-01-25 UE Santa Coloma L 1-245.6 1239 1332 33.27% 18.37% 48.35%-0.26 -6.2 24
2026-01-25 @ FC Santa Coloma W 2-145.6 1332 1239 48.35% 18.37% 33.27%+0.26 +6.3 32
2026-01-31 Atletic Escaldes L 1-430.8 890 1313 7.40% 13.82% 78.78%-1.73 -3.6 11
2026-01-31 @ Carroi W 4-130.8 1313 890 78.78% 13.82% 7.40%+1.73 +3.6 23
2026-02-01 FC Santa Coloma D 1-157.1 1410 1233 66.63% 16.81% 16.56%+0.95 -2.2 35
2026-02-01 @ Inter Club d Escaldes D 1-157.1 1233 1410 16.56% 16.81% 66.63%-0.95 +2.2 25
2026-02-01 Esperanca W 1-032.8 1042 825 70.02% 16.20% 13.78%+1.12 +2.9 14
2026-02-01 @ Penya Encarnada L 0-132.8 825 1042 13.78% 16.20% 70.02%-1.12 -2.9 2
2026-02-01 Ordino W 1-031.0 1338 1026 76.81% 14.47% 8.71%+1.55 +1.8 35
2026-02-01 @ UE Santa Coloma L 0-131.0 1026 1338 8.71% 14.47% 76.81%-1.55 -1.8 11
2026-02-07 UE Santa Coloma W 2-155.4 1045 1340 13.66% 16.17% 70.17%-1.16 +12.1 17
2026-02-07 @ Penya Encarnada L 1-255.4 1340 1045 70.17% 16.17% 13.66%+1.16 -12.1 35
2026-02-08 FC Rangers L 0-325.7 887 1320 7.05% 13.61% 79.34%-1.77 -4.0 11
2026-02-08 @ Carroi W 3-025.7 1320 887 79.34% 13.61% 7.05%+1.77 +4.0 29
2026-02-08 FC Santa Coloma L 2-357.4 1317 1235 56.66% 17.95% 25.40%+0.52 -9.4 23
2026-02-08 @ Atletic Escaldes W 3-257.4 1235 1317 25.40% 17.95% 56.66%-0.52 +9.4 28
2026-02-08 Inter Club d Escaldes L 0-228.6 1024 1408 8.93% 14.57% 76.50%-1.55 -3.6 11
2026-02-08 @ Ordino W 2-028.6 1408 1024 76.50% 14.57% 8.93%+1.55 +3.6 38
2026-02-14 FC Rangers L 0-241.2 1308 1324 43.90% 18.47% 37.63%+0.09 -15.8 23
2026-02-14 @ Atletic Escaldes W 2-041.2 1324 1308 37.63% 18.47% 43.90%-0.09 +15.7 32
2026-02-14 Inter Club d Escaldes L 0-131.8 1057 1412 10.29% 15.13% 74.58%-1.42 -2.2 17
2026-02-14 @ Penya Encarnada W 1-031.8 1412 1057 74.58% 15.13% 10.29%+1.42 +2.2 41
2026-02-15 Carroi D 0-050.7 822 883 37.56% 18.47% 43.97%-0.11 +0.3 3
2026-02-15 @ Esperanca D 0-050.7 883 822 43.97% 18.47% 37.56%+0.11 -0.3 12
2026-02-15 FC Santa Coloma W 2-153.7 1020 1245 18.98% 17.23% 63.79%-0.84 +11.0 14
2026-02-15 @ Ordino L 1-253.7 1245 1020 63.79% 17.23% 18.98%+0.84 -11.0 28
2026-02-22 FC Rangers D 1-157.3 822 1340 4.63% 11.89% 83.47%-2.15 +3.6 4
2026-02-22 @ Esperanca D 1-157.3 1340 822 83.47% 11.89% 4.63%+2.15 -3.6 33
2026-02-22 Atletic Escaldes W 3-038.6 1234 1292 37.95% 18.47% 43.58%-0.10 +22.7 31
2026-02-22 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-338.6 1292 1234 43.58% 18.47% 37.95%+0.10 -22.7 23
2026-02-22 Carroi D 0-051.2 1054 883 66.12% 16.89% 16.98%+0.92 -2.5 18
2026-02-22 @ Penya Encarnada D 0-051.2 883 1054 16.98% 16.89% 66.12%-0.92 +2.4 13
2026-02-22 Ordino W 2-136.8 1328 1031 75.81% 14.78% 9.41%+1.48 +1.9 38
2026-02-22 @ UE Santa Coloma L 1-236.8 1031 1328 9.41% 14.78% 75.81%-1.48 -1.9 14
2026-02-28 Esperanca W 2-134.3 1269 826 83.59% 11.84% 4.57%+2.13 +0.9 26
2026-02-28 @ Atletic Escaldes L 1-234.3 826 1269 4.57% 11.84% 83.59%-2.13 -0.9 4
2026-03-01 UE Santa Coloma L 1-250.5 1336 1330 47.02% 18.41% 34.57%+0.19 -8.3 33
2026-03-01 @ FC Rangers W 2-150.5 1330 1336 34.57% 18.41% 47.02%-0.19 +8.3 41
2026-03-01 FC Santa Coloma L 0-228.6 885 1256 9.52% 14.82% 75.66%-1.50 -3.8 13
2026-03-01 @ Carroi W 2-028.6 1256 885 75.66% 14.82% 9.52%+1.50 +3.8 34
2026-03-01 Penya Encarnada W 2-135.8 1414 1052 79.65% 13.50% 6.85%+1.77 +1.3 44
2026-03-01 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 1-235.8 1052 1414 6.85% 13.50% 79.65%-1.77 -1.3 18
2026-03-07 FC Rangers L 1-238.4 1029 1328 13.48% 16.13% 70.39%-1.17 -2.7 14
2026-03-07 @ Ordino W 2-138.4 1328 1029 70.39% 16.13% 13.48%+1.17 +2.7 36
2026-03-08 Carroi W 4-143.0 825 881 38.21% 18.47% 43.32%-0.09 +19.1 7
2026-03-08 @ Esperanca L 1-443.0 881 825 43.32% 18.47% 38.21%+0.09 -19.1 13
2026-03-08 Inter Club d Escaldes W 3-258.2 1260 1415 25.76% 17.98% 56.26%-0.53 +9.3 37
2026-03-08 @ FC Santa Coloma L 2-358.2 1415 1260 56.26% 17.98% 25.76%+0.53 -9.3 44
2026-03-08 Atletic Escaldes D 0-051.9 1338 1270 55.07% 18.06% 26.88%+0.46 -1.3 42
2026-03-08 @ UE Santa Coloma D 0-051.9 1270 1338 26.88% 18.06% 55.07%-0.46 +1.3 27
2026-03-21 FC Santa Coloma L 0-135.0 1051 1269 19.47% 17.30% 63.23%-0.82 -4.1 18
2026-03-21 @ Penya Encarnada W 1-035.0 1269 1051 63.23% 17.30% 19.47%+0.82 +4.1 40
2026-03-22 Ordino D 0-051.6 1271 1027 72.18% 15.73% 12.08%+1.25 -3.0 28
2026-03-22 @ Atletic Escaldes D 0-051.6 1027 1271 12.08% 15.73% 72.18%-1.25 +3.0 15
2026-03-22 UE Santa Coloma D 0-052.5 862 1337 5.73% 12.77% 81.50%-1.96 +3.9 14
2026-03-22 @ Carroi D 0-052.5 1337 862 81.50% 12.77% 5.73%+1.96 -3.9 43
2026-03-22 Esperanca L 0-250.6 1406 844 88.02% 9.48% 2.50%+2.66 -28.7 44
2026-03-22 @ Inter Club d Escaldes W 2-050.6 844 1406 2.50% 9.48% 88.02%-2.66 +28.7 10
2026-04-11 Atletic Escaldes W 3-141.6 1330 1268 54.31% 18.11% 27.58%+0.44 +9.2 39
2026-04-11 @ FC Rangers L 1-341.6 1268 1330 27.58% 18.11% 54.31%-0.44 -9.2 28
2026-04-11 Carroi W 5-029.0 1030 866 65.36% 17.01% 17.64%+0.89 +16.5 18
2026-04-11 @ Ordino L 0-529.0 866 1030 17.64% 17.01% 65.36%-0.89 -16.5 14
2026-04-12 Inter Club d Escaldes D 1-157.4 1333 1377 39.93% 18.49% 41.58%-0.04 +0.1 44
2026-04-12 @ UE Santa Coloma D 1-157.4 1377 1333 41.58% 18.49% 39.93%+0.04 -0.1 45
2026-04-13 Penya Encarnada L 0-136.3 873 1047 23.76% 17.80% 58.44%-0.62 -4.9 10
2026-04-13 @ Esperanca W 1-036.3 1047 873 58.44% 17.80% 23.76%+0.62 +4.9 21
2026-04-18 UE Santa Coloma L 0-230.8 1052 1333 14.58% 16.40% 69.03%-1.10 -5.9 21
2026-04-18 @ Penya Encarnada W 2-030.8 1333 1052 69.03% 16.40% 14.58%+1.10 +5.9 47
2026-04-19 FC Rangers L 1-234.7 850 1340 5.31% 12.45% 82.24%-2.03 -1.0 14
2026-04-19 @ Carroi W 2-134.7 1340 850 82.24% 12.45% 5.31%+2.03 +1.0 42
2026-04-19 Esperanca W 4-024.1 1273 868 81.88% 12.61% 5.51%+1.97 +4.0 43
2026-04-19 @ FC Santa Coloma L 0-424.1 868 1273 5.51% 12.61% 81.88%-1.97 -4.0 10
2026-04-19 Ordino W 4-025.5 1377 1046 77.92% 14.12% 7.97%+1.63 +6.0 48
2026-04-19 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 0-425.5 1046 1377 7.97% 14.12% 77.92%-1.63 -6.0 18
2026-04-25 Inter Club d Escaldes L 3-552.3 1341 1383 40.17% 18.49% 41.35%-0.03 -10.7 42
2026-04-25 @ FC Rangers W 5-352.3 1383 1341 41.35% 18.49% 40.17%+0.03 +10.7 51
2026-04-25 FC Santa Coloma D 0-051.9 1339 1278 54.22% 18.11% 27.66%+0.43 -1.3 48
2026-04-25 @ UE Santa Coloma D 0-051.9 1278 1339 27.66% 18.11% 54.22%-0.43 +1.3 44
2026-04-26 Carroi W 3-024.8 1259 849 82.11% 12.51% 5.38%+1.99 +3.0 31
2026-04-26 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-324.8 849 1259 5.38% 12.51% 82.11%-1.99 -3.0 14
2026-04-26 Penya Encarnada L 0-143.0 1040 1046 45.43% 18.45% 36.13%+0.13 -8.6 18
2026-04-26 @ Ordino W 1-043.0 1046 1040 36.13% 18.45% 45.43%-0.13 +8.6 24
2026-05-10 FC Rangers L 1-239.0 1054 1330 14.99% 16.49% 68.52%-1.07 -3.0 24
2026-05-10 @ Penya Encarnada W 2-139.0 1330 1054 68.52% 16.49% 14.99%+1.07 +3.0 45
2026-05-10 UE Santa Coloma L 0-325.0 864 1338 5.75% 12.78% 81.47%-1.95 -3.2 10
2026-05-10 @ Esperanca W 3-025.0 1338 864 81.47% 12.78% 5.75%+1.95 +3.2 51
2026-05-10 Ordino L 0-150.4 1279 1032 72.38% 15.69% 11.93%+1.26 -13.2 44
2026-05-10 @ FC Santa Coloma W 1-050.4 1032 1279 11.93% 15.69% 72.38%-1.26 +13.2 21
2026-05-10 Atletic Escaldes W 3-139.7 1394 1262 62.20% 17.42% 20.38%+0.75 +7.0 54
2026-05-10 @ Inter Club d Escaldes L 1-339.7 1262 1394 20.38% 17.42% 62.20%-0.75 -7.0 31
2026-05-16 FC Santa Coloma W 2-035.7 1333 1266 54.94% 18.07% 27.00%+0.46 +10.4 48
2026-05-16 @ FC Rangers L 0-235.7 1266 1333 27.00% 18.07% 54.94%-0.46 -10.4 44
2026-05-16 Inter Club d Escaldes W 2-158.3 846 1401 3.83% 11.12% 85.05%-2.32 +14.1 17
2026-05-16 @ Carroi L 1-258.3 1401 846 85.05% 11.12% 3.83%+2.32 -14.1 54
2026-05-16 Esperanca D 2-261.5 1045 860 67.25% 16.71% 16.04%+0.98 -1.7 22
2026-05-16 @ Ordino D 2-261.5 860 1045 16.04% 16.71% 67.25%-0.98 +1.7 11
2026-05-17 Penya Encarnada W 2-030.7 1255 1051 68.94% 16.41% 14.64%+1.07 +5.9 34
2026-05-17 @ Atletic Escaldes L 0-230.7 1051 1255 14.64% 16.41% 68.94%-1.07 -5.9 24

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2026-05-27 Inter Club d Escaldes W 2-050.0 862 1387 4.47% 11.75% 83.79%-2.18 +27.9 1-0
2026-05-27 @ Esperanca L 0-250.0 1387 862 83.79% 11.75% 4.47%+2.18 -27.9 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2026-03-22 2.50% Esperanca 844 2 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 1406 0
2 2026-05-16 3.83% @ Carroi 846 2 Inter Club d Escaldes 1401 1
3 2026-05-27 * 4.47% @ Esperanca 862 2 Inter Club d Escaldes 1387 0
4 2025-12-17 9.43% @ Carroi 858 2 FC Santa Coloma 1231 1
5 2026-05-10 11.93% Ordino 1032 1 @ FC Santa Coloma 1279 0
6 2026-02-07 13.66% @ Penya Encarnada 1045 2 UE Santa Coloma 1340 1
7 2026-02-15 18.98% @ Ordino 1020 2 FC Santa Coloma 1245 1
8 2025-12-20 23.58% @ Carroi 871 3 Ordino 1047 1
9 2026-02-08 25.40% FC Santa Coloma 1235 3 @ Atletic Escaldes 1317 2
10 2026-03-08 25.76% @ FC Santa Coloma 1260 3 Inter Club d Escaldes 1415 2
11 2025-11-06 30.36% Ordino 1053 4 @ Penya Encarnada 1092 3
12 2025-11-09 31.17% @ UE Santa Coloma 1281 4 Inter Club d Escaldes 1391 1
13 2025-12-21 32.04% @ FC Santa Coloma 1219 2 FC Rangers 1321 0
14 2025-10-19 33.44% @ FC Santa Coloma 1176 1 UE Santa Coloma 1267 0
15 2025-12-07 33.92% Penya Encarnada 1049 4 @ Ordino 1060 2
16 2026-03-01 34.57% UE Santa Coloma 1330 2 @ FC Rangers 1336 1
17 2025-11-05 35.16% @ UE Santa Coloma 1265 2 Atletic Escaldes 1343 0
18 2025-12-21 35.50% UE Santa Coloma 1329 2 @ Atletic Escaldes 1328 1
19 2026-04-26 36.13% Penya Encarnada 1046 1 @ Ordino 1040 0
20 2026-02-14 37.63% FC Rangers 1324 2 @ Atletic Escaldes 1308 0
21 2026-02-22 37.95% @ FC Santa Coloma 1234 3 Atletic Escaldes 1292 0
22 2026-03-08 38.21% @ Esperanca 825 4 Carroi 881 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-11-30 33.06 FC Santa Coloma 6 1189 50.29% @ Penya Encarnada 0 1082 31.40% 18.31%
2 2026-03-22 28.70 Esperanca 2 844 2.50% @ Inter Club d Escaldes 0 1406 88.02% 9.48%
3 2026-05-27 * 27.91 @ Esperanca 2 862 4.47% Inter Club d Escaldes 0 1387 83.79% 11.75%
4 2026-02-22 22.72 @ FC Santa Coloma 3 1234 37.95% Atletic Escaldes 0 1292 43.58% 18.47%
5 2025-11-09 21.77 @ UE Santa Coloma 4 1281 31.17% Inter Club d Escaldes 1 1391 50.53% 18.30%
6 2026-03-08 19.07 @ Esperanca 4 825 38.21% Carroi 1 881 43.32% 18.47%
7 2025-12-20 17.63 @ Carroi 3 871 23.58% Ordino 1 1047 58.63% 17.79%
8 2025-12-21 17.50 @ FC Santa Coloma 2 1219 32.04% FC Rangers 0 1321 49.63% 18.33%
9 2025-11-05 16.51 @ UE Santa Coloma 2 1265 35.16% Atletic Escaldes 0 1343 46.42% 18.43%
10 2026-04-11 16.49 @ Ordino 5 1030 65.36% Carroi 0 866 17.64% 17.01%
11 2026-02-14 15.75 FC Rangers 2 1324 37.63% @ Atletic Escaldes 0 1308 43.90% 18.47%
12 2026-05-16 14.09 @ Carroi 2 846 3.83% Inter Club d Escaldes 1 1401 85.05% 11.12%
13 2026-05-10 13.16 Ordino 1 1032 11.93% @ FC Santa Coloma 0 1279 72.38% 15.69%
14 2025-12-07 13.09 Penya Encarnada 4 1049 33.92% @ Ordino 2 1060 47.68% 18.39%
15 2025-12-17 12.93 @ Carroi 2 858 9.43% FC Santa Coloma 1 1231 75.78% 14.79%
16 2026-02-07 12.06 @ Penya Encarnada 2 1045 13.66% UE Santa Coloma 1 1340 70.17% 16.17%
17 2026-02-15 11.02 @ Ordino 2 1020 18.98% FC Santa Coloma 1 1245 63.79% 17.23%
18 2026-04-25 10.71 Inter Club d Escaldes 5 1383 41.35% @ FC Rangers 3 1341 40.17% 18.49%
19 2026-05-16 10.43 @ FC Rangers 2 1333 54.94% FC Santa Coloma 0 1266 27.00% 18.07%
20 2026-02-08 9.36 FC Santa Coloma 3 1235 25.40% @ Atletic Escaldes 2 1317 56.66% 17.95%
21 2026-03-08 9.30 @ FC Santa Coloma 3 1260 25.76% Inter Club d Escaldes 2 1415 56.26% 17.98%
22 2026-04-11 9.21 @ FC Rangers 3 1330 54.31% Atletic Escaldes 1 1268 27.58% 18.11%
23 2025-10-19 9.04 @ FC Santa Coloma 1 1176 33.44% UE Santa Coloma 0 1267 48.18% 18.38%
24 2025-12-14 8.95 @ FC Santa Coloma 7 1222 79.29% Carroi 0 867 7.08% 13.63%
25 2025-10-22 8.79 UE Santa Coloma 2 1258 60.04% @ Ordino 0 1070 22.31% 17.65%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-10-26 61.9 @ Atletic Escaldes 2 1335 63.58% FC Santa Coloma 2 1190 19.17% 17.25%
2 2026-05-16 61.5 @ Ordino 2 1045 67.25% Esperanca 2 860 16.04% 16.71%
3 2026-05-16 58.3 @ Carroi 2 846 3.83% Inter Club d Escaldes 1 1401 85.05% 11.12%
4 2026-03-08 58.2 @ FC Santa Coloma 3 1260 25.76% Inter Club d Escaldes 2 1415 56.26% 17.98%
5 2025-11-06 57.9 Ordino 4 1053 30.36% @ Penya Encarnada 3 1092 51.38% 18.26%
6 2025-10-29 57.6 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 1 1391 54.00% FC Rangers 1 1331 27.88% 18.12%
7 2026-02-08 57.4 FC Santa Coloma 3 1235 25.40% @ Atletic Escaldes 2 1317 56.66% 17.95%
8 2026-04-12 57.4 @ UE Santa Coloma 1 1333 39.93% Inter Club d Escaldes 1 1377 41.58% 18.49%
9 2026-02-22 57.3 @ Esperanca 1 822 4.63% FC Rangers 1 1340 83.47% 11.89%
10 2026-02-01 57.1 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 1 1410 66.63% FC Santa Coloma 1 1233 16.56% 16.81%
11 2025-12-17 56.5 @ Carroi 2 858 9.43% FC Santa Coloma 1 1231 75.78% 14.79%
12 2025-10-19 56.0 @ Ordino 1 1072 70.24% Esperanca 1 853 13.60% 16.16%
13 2025-10-26 56.0 @ UE Santa Coloma 1 1267 65.91% Penya Encarnada 1 1097 17.16% 16.93%
14 2026-02-07 55.4 @ Penya Encarnada 2 1045 13.66% UE Santa Coloma 1 1340 70.17% 16.17%
15 2026-02-15 53.7 @ Ordino 2 1020 18.98% FC Santa Coloma 1 1245 63.79% 17.23%
16 2025-11-30 52.8 @ UE Santa Coloma 0 1314 83.86% Carroi 0 864 4.43% 11.71%
17 2026-03-22 52.5 @ Carroi 0 862 5.73% UE Santa Coloma 0 1337 81.50% 12.77%
18 2026-04-25 52.3 Inter Club d Escaldes 5 1383 41.35% @ FC Rangers 3 1341 40.17% 18.49%
19 2025-11-02 52.1 @ FC Santa Coloma 0 1191 78.34% Esperanca 0 853 7.69% 13.97%
20 2026-03-08 51.9 @ UE Santa Coloma 0 1338 55.07% Atletic Escaldes 0 1270 26.88% 18.06%
21 2026-04-25 51.9 @ UE Santa Coloma 0 1339 54.22% FC Santa Coloma 0 1278 27.66% 18.11%
22 2025-11-09 51.7 @ FC Rangers 0 1338 64.07% FC Santa Coloma 0 1188 18.74% 17.19%
23 2026-03-22 51.6 @ Atletic Escaldes 0 1271 72.18% Ordino 0 1027 12.08% 15.73%
24 2025-11-27 51.4 @ Ordino 0 1060 16.05% Atletic Escaldes 0 1321 67.23% 16.72%
25 2026-02-22 51.2 @ Penya Encarnada 0 1054 66.12% Carroi 0 883 16.98% 16.89%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-12-14 23.7 @ UE Santa Coloma 7 1325 85.38% Esperanca 0 838 3.66% 10.95%
2 2025-12-10 23.9 @ Atletic Escaldes 3 1322 85.19% Esperanca 0 840 3.76% 11.05%
3 2026-04-19 24.1 @ FC Santa Coloma 4 1273 81.88% Esperanca 0 868 5.51% 12.61%
4 2025-10-29 24.2 @ Atletic Escaldes 3 1334 84.32% Carroi 0 873 4.19% 11.49%
5 2025-10-12 24.4 @ FC Rangers 3 1319 83.48% Carroi 0 879 4.63% 11.89%
6 2025-11-26 24.4 UE Santa Coloma 4 1310 80.92% @ Esperanca 0 846 6.07% 13.00%
7 2026-04-26 24.8 @ Atletic Escaldes 3 1259 82.11% Carroi 0 849 5.38% 12.51%
8 2025-11-23 24.9 UE Santa Coloma 5 1303 79.29% @ Carroi 0 871 7.07% 13.63%
9 2025-12-21 24.9 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 2 1397 88.09% Esperanca 0 833 2.47% 9.44%
10 2026-05-10 25.0 UE Santa Coloma 3 1338 81.47% @ Esperanca 0 864 5.75% 12.78%
11 2025-12-06 25.4 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 2 1383 86.40% Carroi 0 868 3.19% 10.41%
12 2025-12-14 25.5 @ FC Santa Coloma 7 1222 79.29% Carroi 0 867 7.08% 13.63%
13 2025-12-17 25.5 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 4 1391 78.08% Penya Encarnada 0 1058 7.86% 14.06%
14 2026-04-19 25.5 @ Inter Club d Escaldes 4 1377 77.92% Ordino 0 1046 7.97% 14.12%
15 2026-02-08 25.7 FC Rangers 3 1320 79.34% @ Carroi 0 887 7.05% 13.61%
16 2026-01-18 26.5 @ FC Rangers 4 1303 74.30% Ordino 0 1029 10.49% 15.20%
17 2026-01-24 26.8 @ FC Rangers 4 1311 73.40% Penya Encarnada 0 1050 11.16% 15.44%
18 2025-10-26 26.9 FC Rangers 2 1329 81.43% @ Esperanca 0 855 5.77% 12.79%
19 2026-01-18 28.0 FC Santa Coloma 2 1236 77.67% @ Esperanca 0 832 8.13% 14.20%
20 2026-02-08 28.6 Inter Club d Escaldes 2 1408 76.50% @ Ordino 0 1024 8.93% 14.57%
21 2026-03-01 28.6 FC Santa Coloma 2 1256 75.66% @ Carroi 0 885 9.52% 14.82%
22 2026-04-11 29.0 @ Ordino 5 1030 65.36% Carroi 0 866 17.64% 17.01%
23 2025-12-07 29.3 Atletic Escaldes 1 1321 81.75% @ Esperanca 0 841 5.59% 12.66%
24 2025-12-14 29.4 @ Atletic Escaldes 2 1324 73.44% Penya Encarnada 0 1062 11.13% 15.43%
25 2026-05-17 30.7 @ Atletic Escaldes 2 1255 68.94% Penya Encarnada 0 1051 14.64% 16.41%