‹ ›

2008-09 Azerbaijan Premier League Season

182 games

Final

Champion

Baku

62 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 2005-06

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Baku

12.32 points above expected

62 points · 49.68 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Mughan

9.50 points below expected

14 points · 23.50 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Baku Champion 26 20 2 4 62 54 13 +41 49.68 +12.32
2 Inter Baku 26 18 7 1 61 54 16 +38 54.79 +6.21
3 Simurq Zaqatala 26 16 5 5 53 39 20 +19 44.34 +8.66
4 Khazar Lankaran 26 15 5 6 50 49 21 +28 52.53 -2.53
5 Qarabag 26 14 7 5 49 35 22 +13 41.68 +7.32
6 Olimpik Baku 26 12 8 6 44 32 18 +14 47.48 -3.48
7 Standard Baku 26 12 3 11 39 30 31 -1 36.59 +2.41
8 Neftchi Baku 26 9 9 8 36 30 21 +9 43.79 -7.79
9 Karvan 26 10 4 12 34 28 33 -5 35.44 -1.44
10 Gabala 26 9 6 11 33 28 21 +7 34.50 -1.50
11 Turan 26 5 5 16 20 19 45 -26 21.21 -1.21
12 Mughan 26 4 2 20 14 19 53 -34 23.50 -9.50
13 Bakili Baku 26 3 3 20 12 14 65 -51 11.96 +0.04
14 MOIK Baku 26 1 2 23 5 12 64 -52 14.22 -9.22

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Baku 62 49.68 +12.32
2 Simurq Zaqatala 53 44.34 +8.66
3 Qarabag 49 41.68 +7.32
4 Inter Baku 61 54.79 +6.21
5 Standard Baku 39 36.59 +2.41

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Mughan 14 23.50 -9.50
2 MOIK Baku 5 14.22 -9.22
3 Neftchi Baku 36 43.79 -7.79
4 Olimpik Baku 44 47.48 -3.48
5 Khazar Lankaran 50 52.53 -2.53

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Qarabag 4 Nov 23 – Feb 21 1 in 51
2 Turan 3 Apr 12 – Apr 26 1 in 48
3 Baku 8 Nov 22 – Mar 21 1 in 43
4 Karvan 3 Aug 31 – Sep 28 1 in 27
5 Khazar Lankaran 7 Aug 24 – Oct 19 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Karvan 7 Feb 22 – Apr 12 1 in 2,207
2 MOIK Baku 14 Nov 29 – May 16 1 in 113
3 Mughan 6 Oct 4 – Nov 23 1 in 73
4 Turan 4 Aug 10 – Sep 13 1 in 29
5 Khazar Lankaran 2 May 3 – May 9 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Qarabag 9 Oct 4 – Feb 21 1 in 96
2 Simurq Zaqatala 11 Sep 27 – Mar 1 1 in 33
3 Inter Baku 15 Aug 10 – Feb 22 1 in 25
4 Neftchi Baku 7 Mar 1 – Apr 19 1 in 24
5 Bakili Baku 3 Oct 25 – Nov 16 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Karvan 10 Nov 22 – Apr 12 1 in 150
2 Turan 16 Aug 10 – Mar 1 1 in 81
3 Mughan 12 Aug 30 – Feb 22 1 in 44
4 MOIK Baku 22 Sep 26 – May 16 1 in 20
5 Standard Baku 5 Aug 31 – Oct 18 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Baku 1512 62 -14 12 10.1 +1.9
Inter Baku 1584 61 +2 9 11.0 -2.0
Simurq Zaqatala 1416 53 +29 9 7.4 +1.6
Khazar Lankaran 1507 50 +32 7 8.0 -1.0
Qarabag 1409 49 +48 11 7.8 +3.2
Olimpik Baku 1372 44 -62 7 10.3 -3.3
Standard Baku 1295 39 +13 9 8.6 +0.4
Neftchi Baku 1382 36 -18 6 8.5 -2.5
Karvan 1136 34 +49 8 5.4 +2.6
Gabala 1295 33 -10 6 6.2 -0.2
Turan 1156 20 +36 9 4.8 +4.2
Mughan 993 14 -35 3 4.3 -1.3
Bakili Baku 875 12 -19 3 3.6 -0.6
MOIK Baku 813 5 -51 0 2.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BB BAK GAB IB KAR KL MB MUG NB OB QAR SZ SB TUR
Bakili Baku —
0-0-2
0.52
0-0-2
0.76
0-0-2
0.34
1-0-1
0.76
0-0-2
0.51
1-1-0
2.70
1-0-1
1.46
0-0-2
0.60
0-0-2
0.53
0-0-2
0.64
0-0-2
0.55
0-1-1
0.73
0-1-1
1.38
Baku
2-0-0
5.18
—
2-0-0
4.06
1-1-0
2.03
1-0-1
4.24
0-1-1
2.62
2-0-0
5.04
2-0-0
4.97
2-0-0
3.04
1-0-1
3.12
2-0-0
3.63
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-0
4.11
2-0-0
4.89
Gabala
2-0-0
4.90
0-0-2
1.56
—
0-1-1
1.18
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
1.15
2-0-0
4.65
2-0-0
3.40
0-1-1
2.12
0-1-1
1.86
0-1-1
2.42
0-1-1
1.67
1-0-1
2.97
0-1-1
4.18
Inter Baku
2-0-0
5.40
0-1-1
3.57
1-1-0
4.45
—
2-0-0
4.58
1-1-0
3.07
2-0-0
5.32
2-0-0
4.96
1-1-0
3.95
1-1-0
3.44
0-2-0
4.31
2-0-0
4.05
2-0-0
4.25
2-0-0
5.11
Karvan
1-0-1
4.90
1-0-1
1.38
1-0-1
3.11
0-0-2
1.07
—
1-1-0
1.55
2-0-0
4.64
2-0-0
3.68
1-1-0
1.87
0-0-2
1.84
0-1-1
1.86
0-0-2
2.29
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
4.23
Khazar Lankaran
2-0-0
5.18
1-1-0
2.99
1-0-1
4.48
0-1-1
2.53
0-1-1
4.06
—
2-0-0
5.18
2-0-0
4.73
1-0-1
3.61
1-1-0
3.06
0-0-2
3.89
1-1-0
3.13
2-0-0
4.03
2-0-0
4.93
MOIK Baku
0-1-1
2.90
0-0-2
0.63
0-0-2
0.99
0-0-2
0.40
0-0-2
1.00
0-0-2
0.51
—
0-1-1
1.73
0-0-2
0.63
0-0-2
0.55
0-0-2
0.74
0-0-2
0.68
0-0-2
0.75
1-0-1
1.92
Mughan
1-0-1
4.16
0-0-2
0.70
0-0-2
2.21
0-0-2
0.71
0-0-2
1.93
0-0-2
0.92
1-1-0
3.88
—
0-1-1
1.12
0-0-2
0.95
0-0-2
1.43
0-0-2
1.31
0-0-2
1.32
2-0-0
2.92
Neftchi Baku
2-0-0
5.07
0-0-2
2.56
1-1-0
3.49
0-1-1
1.67
0-1-1
3.75
1-0-1
2.00
2-0-0
5.04
1-1-0
4.51
—
0-1-1
2.57
0-1-1
3.21
1-1-0
2.77
1-0-1
3.54
0-2-0
4.78
Olimpik Baku
2-0-0
5.16
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
3.75
0-1-1
2.17
2-0-0
3.77
0-1-1
2.54
2-0-0
5.14
2-0-0
4.69
1-1-0
3.04
—
0-1-1
3.33
0-1-1
3.03
0-2-0
3.70
1-0-1
4.61
Qarabag
2-0-0
5.03
0-0-2
1.98
1-1-0
3.19
0-2-0
1.31
1-1-0
3.76
2-0-0
1.72
2-0-0
4.92
2-0-0
4.19
1-1-0
2.39
1-1-0
2.27
—
0-1-1
2.74
0-0-2
3.49
2-0-0
4.45
Simurq Zaqatala
2-0-0
5.13
1-0-1
2.44
1-1-0
3.95
0-0-2
1.56
2-0-0
3.32
0-1-1
2.48
2-0-0
4.98
2-0-0
4.32
0-1-1
2.84
1-1-0
2.57
1-1-0
2.86
—
2-0-0
3.80
2-0-0
4.34
Standard Baku
1-1-0
4.92
0-0-2
1.51
1-0-1
2.64
0-0-2
1.37
1-0-1
3.08
0-0-2
1.58
2-0-0
4.91
2-0-0
4.30
1-0-1
2.07
0-2-0
1.91
2-0-0
2.11
0-0-2
1.81
—
2-0-0
3.91
Turan
1-1-0
4.24
0-0-2
0.77
1-1-0
1.44
0-0-2
0.57
1-1-0
1.39
0-0-2
0.73
1-0-1
3.69
0-0-2
2.68
0-2-0
0.87
1-0-1
1.03
0-0-2
1.18
0-0-2
1.29
0-0-2
1.70
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +12.8
Allowed 0.86 -9.5
Differential 0.95 +5.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.79%10.99%7.42%4.95%2.47%1.37%35.99%
110.99%8.24%6.32%4.67%0.55%0.55%31.32%
27.42%6.32%1.65%0.55%0.82%—16.76%
34.95%4.67%0.55%———10.16%
42.47%0.55%0.82%———3.85%
5+1.37%0.55%————1.92%
Total35.99%31.32%16.76%10.16%3.85%1.92%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.30 1.30 2.09
CV 1.07 1.07 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.69%19.23%15.38%7.69%7.69%57.69%
13.85%11.54%7.69%7.69%—3.85%34.62%
2—3.85%————3.85%
3——3.85%———3.85%
4———————
5+———————
Total3.85%23.08%30.77%23.08%7.69%11.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.54 2.50 -1.96
SD 0.76 1.56 1.93
CV 1.41 0.62 —
Max 3 7 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%——7.69%——15.38%
123.08%—7.69%———30.77%
219.23%3.85%————23.08%
37.69%7.69%————15.38%
47.69%—————7.69%
5+7.69%—————7.69%
Total73.08%11.54%7.69%7.69%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.08 0.50 +1.58
SD 1.85 0.95 2.35
CV 0.89 1.90 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%26.92%3.85%3.85%——50.00%
13.85%7.69%7.69%———19.23%
23.85%7.69%————11.54%
311.54%—————11.54%
43.85%3.85%————7.69%
5+———————
Total38.46%46.15%11.54%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 0.81 +0.27
SD 1.35 0.80 1.78
CV 1.26 0.99 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%————7.69%
111.54%15.38%————26.92%
215.38%11.54%7.69%———34.62%
311.54%3.85%————15.38%
47.69%—3.85%———11.54%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total50.00%38.46%11.54%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.08 0.62 +1.46
SD 1.26 0.70 1.42
CV 0.61 1.13 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%11.54%7.69%3.85%7.69%—38.46%
111.54%7.69%7.69%3.85%——30.77%
27.69%3.85%—3.85%——15.38%
37.69%7.69%————15.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total34.62%30.77%15.38%11.54%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.27 -0.19
SD 1.09 1.28 1.96
CV 1.01 1.01 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%7.69%————19.23%
115.38%—7.69%3.85%——26.92%
27.69%3.85%7.69%—3.85%—23.08%
33.85%11.54%————15.38%
47.69%—————7.69%
5+7.69%—————7.69%
Total53.85%23.08%15.38%3.85%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 0.81 +1.08
SD 1.51 1.10 1.98
CV 0.80 1.36 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—15.38%15.38%23.08%3.85%3.85%61.54%
1—7.69%7.69%11.54%—3.85%30.77%
23.85%———3.85%—7.69%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total3.85%23.08%23.08%34.62%7.69%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.46 2.46 -2.00
SD 0.65 1.36 1.52
CV 1.40 0.55 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%15.38%7.69%3.85%11.54%—42.31%
17.69%3.85%15.38%15.38%3.85%—46.15%
2—3.85%—3.85%——7.69%
3—3.85%————3.85%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.54%26.92%23.08%23.08%15.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 2.04 -1.31
SD 0.78 1.28 1.57
CV 1.06 0.63 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.23%15.38%7.69%———42.31%
13.85%11.54%3.85%3.85%——23.08%
27.69%7.69%3.85%———19.23%
37.69%3.85%————11.54%
4———————
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total42.31%38.46%15.38%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 0.81 +0.35
SD 1.32 0.85 1.70
CV 1.14 1.05 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%15.38%3.85%———34.62%
119.23%15.38%—3.85%——38.46%
2—11.54%————11.54%
33.85%3.85%————7.69%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total42.31%50.00%3.85%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 0.69 +0.54
SD 1.45 0.74 1.63
CV 1.18 1.06 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%3.85%11.54%———26.92%
119.23%15.38%3.85%———38.46%
2—11.54%————11.54%
37.69%7.69%3.85%———19.23%
4——3.85%———3.85%
5+———————
Total38.46%38.46%23.08%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.35 0.85 +0.50
SD 1.20 0.78 1.36
CV 0.89 0.93 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%3.85%7.69%———23.08%
115.38%3.85%3.85%3.85%——26.92%
219.23%7.69%3.85%———30.77%
33.85%11.54%————15.38%
4——3.85%———3.85%
5+———————
Total50.00%26.92%19.23%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.77 +0.73
SD 1.14 0.91 1.43
CV 0.76 1.18 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%7.69%3.85%3.85%—30.77%
111.54%3.85%11.54%7.69%——34.62%
215.38%11.54%————26.92%
3—3.85%————3.85%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+———————
Total34.62%30.77%19.23%11.54%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.19 -0.04
SD 1.05 1.17 1.80
CV 0.91 0.98 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%19.23%11.54%7.69%—7.69%53.85%
17.69%11.54%3.85%3.85%3.85%—30.77%
23.85%———3.85%—7.69%
33.85%—————3.85%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+———————
Total26.92%30.77%15.38%11.54%7.69%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 1.73 -1.00
SD 1.04 1.78 2.30
CV 1.43 1.03 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Inter Baku 1584 61 54.79 +6.21 88.0% 38 44 51 55 59 64 70
Baku 1512 62 49.68 +12.32 99.0% 35 40 46 50 53 58 63
Khazar Lankaran 1507 50 52.53 -2.53 33.0% 34 42 49 54 56 60 64
Simurq Zaqatala 1416 53 44.34 +8.66 97.0% 29 35 40 45 49 53 57
Qarabag 1409 49 41.68 +7.32 91.0% 30 33 37 42 45 50 56
Neftchi Baku 1382 36 43.79 -7.79 11.0% 27 33 39 45 48 52 56
Olimpik Baku 1372 44 47.48 -3.48 32.0% 30 36 41 48 52 62 65
Standard Baku 1295 39 36.59 +2.41 66.0% 19 25 33 37 41 47 54
Gabala 1295 33 34.50 -1.50 38.0% 19 24 29 35 38 44 50
Turan 1156 20 21.21 -1.21 48.0% 9 11 18 21 25 30 34
Karvan 1136 34 35.44 -1.44 45.0% 21 25 30 35 41 47 53
Mughan 993 14 23.50 -9.50 6.0% 10 14 19 24 27 31 37
Bakili Baku 875 12 11.96 +0.04 58.0% 4 5 9 12 15 20 25
MOIK Baku 813 5 14.22 -9.22 1.0% 5 7 11 14 17 21 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.40%
No Edge
42.86%18.68%38.46%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.28 Elo pts.
200 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.19 goals
Neutral
-2+0.08+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.4
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
12%
Baku, 4th of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.04/gm
Photo Finish
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.73 * Some Luck: 4.73 to 7.09 * Lucky: 7.09 to 9.45 * Wild Swing: 9.45 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.04 * Close: 1.04 to 1.56 * Off: 1.56 to 2.08 * Way Off: 2.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.46 points
Some Luck
05.9115
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.29
Close
01.303
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
99.00%
Baku
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
1.00%
MOIK Baku
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Lopsided
00.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 240.22
2.61
Wide Separation
12.152.63.25
Interquartile Edge
83%
Clear Edge
50%73.5%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Few
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.47
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Notable Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.38
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Near-Lock
00.470.651
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Upset-Prone
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Solid Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.14
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.15
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.054
Well Within Noise
00.1150.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Baku12.00%23.00%23.00%14.00%15.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%—————
Inter Baku44.00%26.00%13.00%8.00%2.00%5.00%2.00%———————
Simurq Zaqatala1.00%6.00%8.00%22.00%22.00%11.00%14.00%12.00%3.00%—1.00%———
Khazar Lankaran26.00%26.00%17.00%15.00%8.00%3.00%2.00%3.00%——————
Qarabag1.00%3.00%5.00%10.00%13.00%22.00%16.00%17.00%10.00%3.00%————
Olimpik Baku13.00%12.00%19.00%10.00%9.00%11.00%10.00%12.00%3.00%1.00%————
Standard Baku——2.00%3.00%6.00%9.00%15.00%12.00%31.00%16.00%6.00%———
Neftchi Baku3.00%3.00%12.00%15.00%17.00%15.00%11.00%15.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%———
Karvan—1.00%1.00%3.00%3.00%8.00%13.00%16.00%15.00%28.00%8.00%3.00%1.00%—
Gabala————5.00%9.00%12.00%11.00%26.00%29.00%4.00%4.00%——
Turan————————2.00%9.00%32.00%40.00%11.00%6.00%
Mughan——————1.00%1.00%4.00%10.00%43.00%30.00%9.00%2.00%
Bakili Baku——————————3.00%8.00%32.00%57.00%
MOIK Baku—————————1.00%2.00%15.00%47.00%35.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Baku 100% —
Gabala 100% —
Inter Baku 100% —
Khazar Lankaran 100% —
Neftchi Baku 100% —
Olimpik Baku 100% —
Qarabag 100% —
Simurq Zaqatala 100% —
Standard Baku 100% —
Karvan 99.00% 1.00%
Mughan 89.00% 11.00%
Turan 83.00% 17.00%
MOIK Baku 18.00% 82.00%
Bakili Baku 11.00% 89.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2008-08-09 Mughan W 4-140.8 1244 1209 47.08% 19.77% 33.15%+0.25 +37.3 3
2008-08-09 @ Gabala L 1-440.8 1209 1244 33.15% 19.77% 47.08%-0.25 -37.3 0
2008-08-09 Neftchi Baku W 1-049.5 1291 1442 23.05% 19.46% 57.49%-0.68 +25.8 3
2008-08-09 @ Standard Baku L 0-149.5 1442 1291 57.49% 19.46% 23.05%+0.68 -25.8 0
2008-08-09 Qarabag L 1-237.3 916 1326 6.44% 17.04% 76.52%-1.98 -3.3 0
2008-08-09 @ Bakili Baku W 2-137.3 1326 916 76.52% 17.04% 6.44%+1.98 +3.3 3
2008-08-10 Khazar Lankaran W 1-051.0 1211 1454 14.97% 18.84% 66.19%-1.14 +29.7 3
2008-08-10 @ Karvan L 0-151.0 1454 1211 66.19% 18.84% 14.97%+1.14 -29.7 0
2008-08-10 MOIK Baku W 1-031.1 1359 973 76.82% 16.96% 6.22%+2.01 +3.4 3
2008-08-10 @ Baku L 0-131.1 973 1359 6.22% 16.96% 76.82%-2.01 -3.4 0
2008-08-10 Inter Baku D 1-161.3 1421 1449 38.26% 19.82% 41.92%-0.06 +0.4 1
2008-08-10 @ Olimpik Baku D 1-161.3 1449 1421 41.92% 19.82% 38.26%+0.06 -0.4 1
2008-08-10 Turan W 3-140.8 1282 1169 56.78% 19.50% 23.73%+0.64 +19.9 3
2008-08-10 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 1-340.8 1169 1282 23.73% 19.50% 56.78%-0.64 -19.8 0
2008-08-16 Baku L 0-148.0 1416 1363 49.47% 19.73% 30.80%+0.34 -22.5 0
2008-08-16 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-048.0 1363 1416 30.80% 19.73% 49.47%-0.34 +22.5 6
2008-08-16 Olimpik Baku D 1-158.5 1329 1422 29.74% 19.70% 50.55%-0.38 +2.1 4
2008-08-16 @ Qarabag D 1-158.5 1422 1329 50.55% 19.70% 29.74%+0.38 -2.1 2
2008-08-16 Standard Baku W 3-034.9 1449 1317 58.77% 19.40% 21.83%+0.74 +30.9 4
2008-08-16 @ Inter Baku L 0-334.9 1317 1449 21.83% 19.40% 58.77%-0.74 -31.0 3
2008-08-17 Bakili Baku W 2-029.2 1241 912 73.98% 17.67% 8.36%+1.72 +8.6 6
2008-08-17 @ Karvan L 0-229.2 912 1241 8.36% 17.67% 73.98%-1.72 -8.6 0
2008-08-17 Gabala L 0-328.3 969 1281 10.64% 18.19% 71.17%-1.48 -15.9 0
2008-08-17 @ MOIK Baku W 3-028.3 1281 969 71.17% 18.19% 10.64%+1.48 +15.9 6
2008-08-17 Simurq Zaqatala L 1-244.0 1171 1302 25.20% 19.56% 55.24%-0.58 -12.1 0
2008-08-17 @ Mughan W 2-144.0 1302 1171 55.24% 19.56% 25.20%+0.58 +12.1 6
2008-08-23 MOIK Baku W 1-031.4 1314 953 75.61% 17.28% 7.10%+1.88 +3.9 9
2008-08-23 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-131.4 953 1314 7.10% 17.28% 75.61%-1.88 -3.9 0
2008-08-23 Mughan L 0-142.3 1149 1159 40.75% 19.82% 39.43%+0.02 -19.1 0
2008-08-23 @ Turan W 1-042.3 1159 1149 39.43% 19.82% 40.75%-0.02 +19.1 3
2008-08-23 Qarabag W 2-150.6 1286 1332 35.80% 19.80% 44.40%-0.15 +19.3 6
2008-08-23 @ Standard Baku L 1-250.6 1332 1286 44.40% 19.80% 35.80%+0.15 -19.3 4
2008-08-24 Karvan W 1-036.8 1419 1250 62.50% 19.16% 18.34%+0.92 +9.7 5
2008-08-24 @ Olimpik Baku L 0-136.8 1250 1419 18.34% 19.16% 62.50%-0.92 -9.7 6
2008-08-24 Khazar Lankaran L 1-333.4 904 1424 3.65% 15.55% 80.81%-2.53 -3.2 0
2008-08-24 @ Bakili Baku W 3-133.4 1424 904 80.81% 15.55% 3.65%+2.53 +3.2 3
2008-08-24 Neftchi Baku L 0-140.5 1297 1393 29.19% 19.69% 51.12%-0.41 -14.5 6
2008-08-24 @ Gabala W 1-040.5 1393 1297 51.12% 19.69% 29.19%+0.41 +14.5 3
2008-08-24 Inter Baku D 0-056.0 1385 1480 29.44% 19.70% 50.87%-0.40 +2.4 7
2008-08-24 @ Baku D 0-056.0 1480 1385 50.87% 19.70% 29.44%+0.40 -2.4 5
2008-08-30 Baku L 0-238.8 1312 1388 31.84% 19.75% 48.41%-0.30 -29.4 4
2008-08-30 @ Qarabag W 2-038.8 1388 1312 48.41% 19.75% 31.84%+0.30 +29.5 10
2008-08-30 Gabala D 1-158.9 1477 1282 64.79% 18.97% 16.24%+1.05 -5.3 6
2008-08-30 @ Inter Baku D 1-158.9 1282 1477 16.24% 18.97% 64.79%-1.05 +5.3 7
2008-08-30 Mughan W 2-140.5 1428 1178 69.01% 18.51% 12.48%+1.32 +6.4 6
2008-08-30 @ Khazar Lankaran L 1-240.5 1178 1428 12.48% 18.51% 69.01%-1.32 -6.4 3
2008-08-30 Simurq Zaqatala D 0-052.9 1408 1318 54.03% 19.60% 26.37%+0.53 -3.2 4
2008-08-30 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-052.9 1318 1408 26.37% 19.60% 54.03%-0.53 +3.2 10
2008-08-31 Olimpik Baku L 1-236.0 900 1429 3.50% 15.43% 81.07%-2.57 -1.8 0
2008-08-31 @ Bakili Baku W 2-136.0 1429 900 81.07% 15.43% 3.50%+2.57 +1.8 8
2008-08-31 Standard Baku W 3-148.2 1240 1305 33.20% 19.77% 47.03%-0.25 +35.2 9
2008-08-31 @ Karvan L 1-348.2 1305 1240 47.03% 19.77% 33.20%+0.25 -35.2 6
2008-08-31 Turan W 2-045.4 950 1130 20.15% 19.29% 60.55%-0.82 +51.2 3
2008-08-31 @ MOIK Baku L 0-245.4 1130 950 60.55% 19.29% 20.15%+0.82 -51.2 0
2008-09-13 Turan W 5-026.9 1434 1078 75.35% 17.35% 7.30%+1.85 +17.6 9
2008-09-13 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-526.9 1078 1434 7.30% 17.35% 75.35%-1.85 -17.6 0
2008-09-20 Khazar Lankaran L 0-147.6 1431 1451 39.32% 19.82% 40.86%-0.03 -18.6 8
2008-09-20 @ Olimpik Baku W 1-047.6 1451 1431 40.86% 19.82% 39.32%+0.03 +18.6 12
2008-09-20 Qarabag L 1-249.8 1288 1283 42.94% 19.81% 37.25%+0.10 -18.8 7
2008-09-20 @ Gabala W 2-149.8 1283 1288 37.25% 19.81% 42.94%-0.10 +18.8 7
2008-09-21 Bakili Baku D 1-156.6 1270 899 76.12% 17.15% 6.73%+1.93 -7.8 7
2008-09-21 @ Standard Baku D 1-156.6 899 1270 6.73% 17.15% 76.12%-1.93 +7.8 1
2008-09-21 Karvan L 0-345.2 1417 1275 59.79% 19.34% 20.87%+0.79 -73.5 10
2008-09-21 @ Baku W 3-045.2 1275 1417 20.87% 19.34% 59.79%-0.79 +73.5 12
2008-09-21 Neftchi Baku D 0-051.5 1061 1405 9.04% 17.84% 73.11%-1.64 +8.0 1
2008-09-21 @ Turan D 0-051.5 1405 1061 73.11% 17.84% 9.04%+1.64 -8.0 5
2008-09-21 Inter Baku L 0-237.7 1321 1472 23.04% 19.46% 57.50%-0.68 -22.3 10
2008-09-21 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 2-037.7 1472 1321 57.50% 19.46% 23.04%+0.68 +22.3 9
2008-09-26 Khazar Lankaran L 0-425.6 1001 1470 4.76% 16.27% 78.97%-2.27 -9.2 3
2008-09-26 @ MOIK Baku W 4-025.6 1470 1001 78.97% 16.27% 4.76%+2.27 +9.2 15
2008-09-27 Mughan D 0-051.7 1397 1172 67.19% 18.73% 14.08%+1.20 -6.5 6
2008-09-27 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-051.7 1172 1397 14.08% 18.73% 67.19%-1.20 +6.5 4
2008-09-27 Simurq Zaqatala L 0-241.1 1302 1299 42.65% 19.81% 37.54%+0.09 -37.4 7
2008-09-27 @ Qarabag W 2-041.1 1299 1302 37.54% 19.81% 42.65%-0.09 +37.4 13
2008-09-27 Standard Baku D 0-052.4 1412 1262 60.61% 19.29% 20.10%+0.83 -4.8 9
2008-09-27 @ Olimpik Baku D 0-052.4 1262 1412 20.10% 19.29% 60.61%-0.83 +4.8 8
2008-09-28 Baku L 0-726.3 907 1344 5.62% 16.70% 77.68%-2.11 -18.5 1
2008-09-28 @ Bakili Baku W 7-026.3 1344 907 77.68% 16.70% 5.62%+2.11 +18.5 13
2008-09-28 Gabala W 2-145.4 1349 1269 52.86% 19.64% 27.50%+0.48 +13.0 15
2008-09-28 @ Karvan L 1-245.4 1269 1349 27.50% 19.64% 52.86%-0.48 -13.0 7
2008-09-28 Turan W 3-026.8 1494 1069 78.46% 16.45% 5.09%+2.20 +7.6 12
2008-09-28 @ Inter Baku L 0-326.8 1069 1494 5.09% 16.45% 78.46%-2.20 -7.6 1
2008-10-04 Khazar Lankaran L 0-137.5 1267 1479 17.32% 19.08% 63.61%-0.98 -9.2 8
2008-10-04 @ Standard Baku W 1-037.5 1479 1267 63.61% 19.08% 17.32%+0.98 +9.2 18
2008-10-04 Qarabag L 0-135.3 1061 1264 18.10% 19.14% 62.76%-0.94 -9.6 1
2008-10-04 @ Turan W 1-035.3 1264 1061 62.76% 19.14% 18.10%+0.94 +9.5 10
2008-10-04 Inter Baku L 1-240.3 1179 1502 10.03% 18.07% 71.91%-1.54 -5.2 4
2008-10-04 @ Mughan W 2-140.3 1502 1179 71.91% 18.07% 10.03%+1.54 +5.2 15
2008-10-04 Olimpik Baku W 3-149.8 1362 1407 35.87% 19.80% 44.33%-0.15 +33.4 16
2008-10-04 @ Baku L 1-349.8 1407 1362 44.33% 19.80% 35.87%+0.15 -33.4 9
2008-10-05 Bakili Baku W 3-026.9 1256 888 75.95% 17.20% 6.86%+1.92 +10.3 10
2008-10-05 @ Gabala L 0-326.9 888 1256 6.86% 17.20% 75.95%-1.92 -10.3 1
2008-10-05 Karvan W 2-041.7 1336 1362 38.64% 19.82% 41.55%-0.05 +36.6 16
2008-10-05 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-241.7 1362 1336 41.55% 19.82% 38.64%+0.05 -36.6 15
2008-10-05 Neftchi Baku L 0-526.4 992 1390 6.85% 17.19% 75.96%-1.92 -16.5 3
2008-10-05 @ MOIK Baku W 5-026.4 1390 992 75.96% 17.19% 6.85%+1.92 +16.5 9
2008-10-18 Gabala W 1-038.5 1374 1266 56.14% 19.52% 24.34%+0.62 +12.4 12
2008-10-18 @ Olimpik Baku L 0-138.5 1266 1374 24.34% 19.52% 56.14%-0.62 -12.4 10
2008-10-18 Mughan W 3-141.2 1274 1173 55.26% 19.56% 25.18%+0.58 +20.9 13
2008-10-18 @ Qarabag L 1-341.2 1173 1274 25.18% 19.56% 55.26%-0.58 -20.9 4
2008-10-18 Standard Baku W 2-035.0 1396 1258 59.37% 19.37% 21.27%+0.77 +20.8 19
2008-10-18 @ Baku L 0-235.0 1258 1396 21.27% 19.37% 59.37%-0.77 -20.8 8
2008-10-18 Turan D 1-156.4 1325 1052 70.68% 18.27% 11.05%+1.44 -6.6 16
2008-10-18 @ Karvan D 1-156.4 1052 1325 11.05% 18.27% 70.68%-1.44 +6.6 2
2008-10-19 MOIK Baku W 2-027.2 1507 975 82.14% 14.93% 2.93%+2.74 +2.9 18
2008-10-19 @ Inter Baku L 0-227.2 975 1507 2.93% 14.93% 82.14%-2.74 -2.9 3
2008-10-19 Neftchi Baku W 2-041.7 1488 1407 53.07% 19.63% 27.29%+0.49 +25.9 21
2008-10-19 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-241.7 1407 1488 27.29% 19.63% 53.07%-0.49 -25.9 9
2008-10-19 Simurq Zaqatala L 0-227.5 878 1373 4.16% 15.91% 79.93%-2.40 -4.2 1
2008-10-19 @ Bakili Baku W 2-027.5 1373 878 79.93% 15.91% 4.16%+2.40 +4.2 19
2008-10-25 Bakili Baku D 1-156.0 1058 874 63.88% 19.05% 17.06%+1.00 -5.1 3
2008-10-25 @ Turan D 1-156.0 874 1058 17.06% 19.05% 63.88%-1.00 +5.1 2
2008-10-25 Gabala W 2-039.9 1237 1254 39.91% 19.82% 40.28%-0.01 +35.7 11
2008-10-25 @ Standard Baku L 0-239.9 1254 1237 40.28% 19.82% 39.91%+0.01 -35.7 10
2008-10-25 Karvan L 0-136.7 1153 1319 21.50% 19.38% 59.12%-0.75 -11.1 4
2008-10-25 @ Mughan W 1-036.7 1319 1153 59.12% 19.38% 21.50%+0.75 +11.2 19
2008-10-25 Inter Baku L 1-347.1 1381 1510 25.35% 19.57% 55.08%-0.57 -21.0 9
2008-10-25 @ Neftchi Baku W 3-147.1 1510 1381 55.08% 19.57% 25.35%+0.57 +21.0 21
2008-10-26 Khazar Lankaran D 0-058.1 1416 1514 29.03% 19.69% 51.28%-0.41 +2.5 20
2008-10-26 @ Baku D 0-058.1 1514 1416 51.28% 19.69% 29.03%+0.41 -2.5 22
2008-10-26 Qarabag L 0-132.6 972 1295 10.07% 18.08% 71.85%-1.54 -5.5 3
2008-10-26 @ MOIK Baku W 1-032.6 1295 972 71.85% 18.08% 10.07%+1.54 +5.5 16
2008-10-26 Olimpik Baku D 1-158.7 1377 1386 40.95% 19.82% 39.24%+0.03 -0.2 20
2008-10-26 @ Simurq Zaqatala D 1-158.7 1386 1377 39.24% 19.82% 40.95%-0.03 +0.2 13
2008-11-08 MOIK Baku W 2-028.8 1330 967 75.72% 17.26% 7.02%+1.89 +7.2 22
2008-11-08 @ Karvan L 0-228.8 967 1330 7.02% 17.26% 75.72%-1.89 -7.2 3
2008-11-08 Neftchi Baku D 1-157.2 1300 1360 33.93% 19.78% 46.29%-0.22 +1.2 17
2008-11-08 @ Qarabag D 1-157.2 1360 1300 46.29% 19.78% 33.93%+0.22 -1.2 10
2008-11-08 Turan W 3-027.6 1387 1053 74.22% 17.61% 8.17%+1.74 +12.2 16
2008-11-08 @ Olimpik Baku L 0-327.6 1053 1387 8.17% 17.61% 74.22%-1.74 -12.2 3
2008-11-09 Gabala W 3-031.2 1419 1218 65.30% 18.93% 15.78%+1.08 +23.1 23
2008-11-09 @ Baku L 0-331.2 1218 1419 15.78% 18.93% 65.30%-1.08 -23.1 10
2008-11-09 Mughan W 3-261.2 879 1141 13.56% 18.66% 67.78%-1.24 +27.2 5
2008-11-09 @ Bakili Baku L 2-361.2 1141 879 67.78% 18.66% 13.56%+1.24 -27.2 4
2008-11-09 Inter Baku L 2-460.4 1512 1531 39.50% 19.82% 40.68%-0.02 -27.2 22
2008-11-09 @ Khazar Lankaran W 4-260.4 1531 1512 40.68% 19.82% 39.50%+0.02 +27.2 24
2008-11-09 Simurq Zaqatala L 0-139.8 1273 1377 28.25% 19.66% 52.09%-0.45 -14.1 11
2008-11-09 @ Standard Baku W 1-039.8 1377 1273 52.09% 19.66% 28.25%+0.45 +14.1 23
2008-11-15 Karvan L 0-145.4 1359 1337 45.27% 19.79% 34.93%+0.18 -20.8 10
2008-11-15 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-045.4 1337 1359 34.93% 19.79% 45.27%-0.18 +20.8 25
2008-11-15 Khazar Lankaran L 0-134.8 1195 1485 11.87% 18.41% 69.72%-1.37 -6.4 10
2008-11-15 @ Gabala W 1-034.8 1485 1195 69.72% 18.41% 11.87%+1.37 +6.4 25
2008-11-15 Qarabag D 1-161.4 1558 1301 69.57% 18.43% 12.00%+1.36 -6.4 25
2008-11-15 @ Inter Baku D 1-161.4 1301 1558 12.00% 18.43% 69.57%-1.36 +6.4 18
2008-11-15 Standard Baku L 0-232.3 1041 1259 16.89% 19.04% 64.07%-1.01 -16.9 3
2008-11-15 @ Turan W 2-032.3 1259 1041 64.07% 19.04% 16.89%+1.01 +16.9 14
2008-11-16 Bakili Baku D 1-155.8 959 906 49.55% 19.73% 30.72%+0.34 -1.9 4
2008-11-16 @ MOIK Baku D 1-155.8 906 959 30.72% 19.73% 49.55%-0.34 +1.9 6
2008-11-16 Baku W 2-154.1 1391 1442 35.09% 19.79% 45.12%-0.18 +19.6 26
2008-11-16 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 1-254.1 1442 1391 45.12% 19.79% 35.09%+0.18 -19.6 23
2008-11-16 Olimpik Baku L 0-133.7 1114 1399 12.17% 18.46% 69.37%-1.35 -6.6 4
2008-11-16 @ Mughan W 1-033.7 1399 1114 69.37% 18.46% 12.17%+1.35 +6.6 19
2008-11-22 MOIK Baku W 3-133.9 1405 958 79.32% 16.14% 4.54%+2.32 +4.0 22
2008-11-22 @ Olimpik Baku L 1-333.9 958 1405 4.54% 16.14% 79.32%-2.32 -4.0 4
2008-11-22 Inter Baku L 1-248.4 1358 1552 18.87% 19.20% 61.93%-0.89 -9.4 25
2008-11-22 @ Karvan W 2-148.4 1552 1358 61.93% 19.20% 18.87%+0.89 +9.3 28
2008-11-22 Turan W 7-026.6 1422 1024 77.33% 16.81% 5.86%+2.07 +19.3 26
2008-11-22 @ Baku L 0-726.6 1024 1422 5.86% 16.81% 77.33%-2.07 -19.3 3
2008-11-23 Mughan W 1-035.5 1275 1108 62.33% 19.17% 18.50%+0.92 +9.8 17
2008-11-23 @ Standard Baku L 0-135.5 1108 1275 18.50% 19.17% 62.33%-0.92 -9.7 4
2008-11-23 Neftchi Baku L 0-228.3 908 1338 5.83% 16.79% 77.38%-2.07 -6.0 6
2008-11-23 @ Bakili Baku W 2-028.3 1338 908 77.38% 16.79% 5.83%+2.07 +6.0 13
2008-11-23 Qarabag L 1-356.0 1491 1308 63.74% 19.07% 17.19%+0.99 -46.7 25
2008-11-23 @ Khazar Lankaran W 3-156.0 1308 1491 17.19% 19.07% 63.74%-0.99 +46.7 21
2008-11-23 Simurq Zaqatala D 0-051.8 1188 1411 16.51% 19.00% 64.49%-1.04 +5.8 11
2008-11-23 @ Gabala D 0-051.8 1411 1188 64.49% 19.00% 16.51%+1.04 -5.8 27
2008-11-26 MOIK Baku D 1-156.0 1098 954 60.03% 19.33% 20.64%+0.80 -4.2 5
2008-11-26 @ Mughan D 1-156.0 954 1098 20.64% 19.33% 60.03%-0.80 +4.2 5
2008-11-29 Baku L 0-427.5 1094 1442 8.85% 17.79% 73.35%-1.66 -17.3 5
2008-11-29 @ Mughan W 4-027.5 1442 1094 73.35% 17.79% 8.85%+1.66 +17.3 29
2008-11-29 Gabala D 0-050.8 1005 1194 19.29% 19.24% 61.47%-0.87 +5.0 4
2008-11-29 @ Turan D 0-050.8 1194 1005 61.47% 19.24% 19.29%+0.87 -5.0 12
2008-11-29 Karvan W 3-254.2 1354 1348 43.12% 19.81% 37.07%+0.11 +15.8 24
2008-11-29 @ Qarabag L 2-354.2 1348 1354 37.07% 19.81% 43.12%-0.11 -15.8 25
2008-11-29 Khazar Lankaran D 2-266.8 1405 1444 36.67% 19.81% 43.52%-0.12 +0.5 28
2008-11-29 @ Simurq Zaqatala D 2-266.8 1444 1405 43.52% 19.81% 36.67%+0.12 -0.5 26
2008-11-29 Standard Baku L 1-238.6 958 1285 9.82% 18.02% 72.15%-1.56 -5.1 5
2008-11-29 @ MOIK Baku W 2-138.6 1285 958 72.15% 18.02% 9.82%+1.56 +5.0 20
2008-11-30 Bakili Baku W 4-023.6 1561 902 85.49% 13.01% 1.50%+3.37 +2.7 31
2008-11-30 @ Inter Baku L 0-423.6 902 1561 1.50% 13.01% 85.49%-3.37 -2.7 6
2008-11-30 Olimpik Baku L 1-248.8 1344 1409 33.10% 19.77% 47.13%-0.25 -15.2 13
2008-11-30 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-148.8 1409 1344 47.13% 19.77% 33.10%+0.25 +15.2 25
2009-02-14 Bakili Baku W 3-025.6 1370 899 80.17% 15.81% 4.02%+2.43 +5.9 27
2009-02-14 @ Qarabag L 0-325.6 899 1370 4.02% 15.81% 80.17%-2.43 -5.9 6
2009-02-14 Baku L 0-325.7 953 1459 3.93% 15.75% 80.33%-2.46 -5.8 5
2009-02-14 @ MOIK Baku W 3-025.7 1459 953 80.33% 15.75% 3.93%+2.46 +5.8 32
2009-02-14 Gabala L 0-433.1 1076 1189 27.25% 19.63% 53.12%-0.49 -49.0 5
2009-02-14 @ Mughan W 4-033.1 1189 1076 53.12% 19.63% 27.25%+0.49 +49.0 15
2009-02-15 Karvan D 0-053.8 1444 1333 56.50% 19.51% 24.00%+0.63 -3.8 27
2009-02-15 @ Khazar Lankaran D 0-053.8 1333 1444 24.00% 19.51% 56.50%-0.63 +3.8 26
2009-02-15 Olimpik Baku W 1-045.8 1564 1425 59.53% 19.36% 21.12%+0.77 +11.0 34
2009-02-15 @ Inter Baku L 0-145.8 1425 1564 21.12% 19.36% 59.53%-0.77 -11.0 25
2009-02-15 Simurq Zaqatala L 0-131.5 1010 1405 6.95% 17.23% 75.81%-1.90 -3.8 4
2009-02-15 @ Turan W 1-031.5 1405 1010 75.81% 17.23% 6.95%+1.90 +3.8 31
2009-02-15 Standard Baku W 2-147.0 1328 1290 47.52% 19.76% 32.72%+0.27 +15.1 16
2009-02-15 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-247.0 1290 1328 32.72% 19.76% 47.52%-0.27 -15.1 20
2009-02-21 Khazar Lankaran L 0-131.1 1006 1440 5.71% 16.74% 77.55%-2.09 -3.1 4
2009-02-21 @ Turan W 1-031.1 1440 1006 77.55% 16.74% 5.71%+2.09 +3.1 30
2009-02-21 MOIK Baku W 2-029.9 1238 947 71.81% 18.08% 10.11%+1.53 +10.4 18
2009-02-21 @ Gabala L 0-229.9 947 1238 10.11% 18.08% 71.81%-1.53 -10.4 5
2009-02-21 Neftchi Baku W 2-038.0 1465 1344 57.62% 19.46% 22.92%+0.68 +22.2 35
2009-02-21 @ Baku L 0-238.0 1344 1465 22.92% 19.46% 57.62%-0.68 -22.2 16
2009-02-21 Qarabag L 0-147.6 1414 1376 47.43% 19.76% 32.81%+0.26 -21.7 25
2009-02-21 @ Olimpik Baku W 1-047.6 1376 1414 32.81% 19.76% 47.43%-0.26 +21.7 30
2009-02-22 Karvan W 2-158.6 893 1336 5.44% 16.62% 77.94%-2.14 +32.8 9
2009-02-22 @ Bakili Baku L 1-258.6 1336 893 77.94% 16.62% 5.44%+2.14 -32.8 26
2009-02-22 Mughan W 2-028.7 1409 1027 76.60% 17.02% 6.38%+1.99 +6.6 34
2009-02-22 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-228.7 1027 1409 6.38% 17.02% 76.60%-1.99 -6.6 5
2009-02-22 Inter Baku L 0-235.2 1275 1575 11.29% 18.31% 70.40%-1.42 -11.6 20
2009-02-22 @ Standard Baku W 2-035.2 1575 1275 70.40% 18.31% 11.29%+1.42 +11.6 37
2009-02-28 Baku L 0-159.1 1587 1487 55.16% 19.56% 25.28%+0.57 -24.9 37
2009-02-28 @ Inter Baku W 1-059.1 1487 1587 25.28% 19.56% 55.16%-0.57 +24.9 38
2009-02-28 Olimpik Baku L 0-140.9 1304 1392 30.20% 19.71% 50.08%-0.37 -15.0 26
2009-02-28 @ Karvan W 1-040.9 1392 1304 50.08% 19.71% 30.20%+0.37 +15.0 28
2009-02-28 Standard Baku L 0-149.0 1398 1264 59.00% 19.39% 21.62%+0.75 -26.5 30
2009-02-28 @ Qarabag W 1-049.0 1264 1398 21.62% 19.39% 59.00%-0.75 +26.5 23
2009-03-01 Bakili Baku W 5-024.7 1443 926 81.68% 15.15% 3.17%+2.66 +7.4 33
2009-03-01 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-524.7 926 1443 3.17% 15.15% 81.68%-2.66 -7.4 9
2009-03-01 Gabala D 0-051.4 1321 1249 51.96% 19.67% 28.37%+0.44 -2.7 17
2009-03-01 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-051.4 1249 1321 28.37% 19.67% 51.96%-0.44 +2.7 19
2009-03-01 Simurq Zaqatala L 2-437.4 937 1416 4.52% 16.13% 79.35%-2.32 -3.6 5
2009-03-01 @ MOIK Baku W 4-237.4 1416 937 79.35% 16.13% 4.52%+2.32 +3.6 37
2009-03-01 Turan W 2-146.8 1021 1003 44.77% 19.80% 35.43%+0.17 +16.1 8
2009-03-01 @ Mughan L 1-246.8 1003 1021 35.43% 19.80% 44.77%-0.17 -16.1 4
2009-03-07 Bakili Baku W 4-024.8 1407 918 80.76% 15.57% 3.68%+2.52 +7.0 31
2009-03-07 @ Olimpik Baku L 0-424.8 918 1407 3.68% 15.57% 80.76%-2.52 -7.0 9
2009-03-07 MOIK Baku W 3-034.7 987 933 49.58% 19.72% 30.69%+0.35 +41.5 7
2009-03-07 @ Turan L 0-334.7 933 987 30.69% 19.72% 49.58%-0.35 -41.5 5
2009-03-07 Qarabag W 2-039.4 1512 1371 59.65% 19.35% 21.00%+0.78 +20.6 41
2009-03-07 @ Baku L 0-239.4 1371 1512 21.00% 19.35% 59.65%-0.78 -20.6 30
2009-03-07 Inter Baku L 0-136.7 1251 1562 10.70% 18.20% 71.10%-1.48 -5.8 19
2009-03-07 @ Gabala W 1-036.7 1562 1251 71.10% 18.20% 10.70%+1.48 +5.8 40
2009-03-08 Karvan W 2-039.5 1290 1289 42.47% 19.81% 37.72%+0.08 +33.8 26
2009-03-08 @ Standard Baku L 0-239.5 1289 1290 37.72% 19.81% 42.47%-0.08 -33.8 26
2009-03-08 Khazar Lankaran L 1-334.9 1037 1451 6.34% 17.01% 76.66%-1.99 -5.6 8
2009-03-08 @ Mughan W 3-134.9 1451 1037 76.66% 17.01% 6.34%+1.99 +5.7 36
2009-03-08 Neftchi Baku L 0-246.3 1419 1319 55.31% 19.56% 25.13%+0.58 -47.0 37
2009-03-08 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 2-046.3 1319 1419 25.13% 19.56% 55.31%-0.58 +47.0 20
2009-03-14 Olimpik Baku D 0-056.1 1456 1414 48.05% 19.75% 32.19%+0.29 -1.8 37
2009-03-14 @ Khazar Lankaran D 0-056.1 1414 1456 32.19% 19.75% 48.05%-0.29 +1.8 32
2009-03-14 Simurq Zaqatala W 2-148.6 1568 1372 64.80% 18.97% 16.23%+1.05 +8.2 43
2009-03-14 @ Inter Baku L 1-248.6 1372 1568 16.23% 18.97% 64.80%-1.05 -8.1 37
2009-03-15 Baku L 0-136.7 1255 1533 12.60% 18.53% 68.88%-1.31 -6.8 26
2009-03-15 @ Karvan W 1-036.7 1533 1255 68.88% 18.53% 12.60%+1.31 +6.8 44
2009-03-15 Gabala D 0-051.6 1351 1245 55.84% 19.54% 24.62%+0.60 -3.6 31
2009-03-15 @ Qarabag D 0-051.6 1245 1351 24.62% 19.54% 55.84%-0.60 +3.6 20
2009-03-15 Mughan L 1-340.6 891 1031 24.20% 19.52% 56.28%-0.62 -20.2 5
2009-03-15 @ MOIK Baku W 3-140.6 1031 891 56.28% 19.52% 24.20%+0.62 +20.2 11
2009-03-15 Standard Baku L 0-228.5 911 1324 6.37% 17.02% 76.61%-1.99 -6.6 9
2009-03-15 @ Bakili Baku W 2-028.5 1324 911 76.61% 17.02% 6.37%+1.99 +6.6 29
2009-03-15 Turan D 1-156.7 1366 1028 74.42% 17.57% 8.01%+1.76 -7.5 21
2009-03-15 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-156.7 1028 1366 8.01% 17.57% 74.42%-1.76 +7.5 8
2009-03-21 Bakili Baku W 3-132.3 1539 905 84.89% 13.39% 1.71%+3.25 +1.4 47
2009-03-21 @ Baku L 1-332.3 905 1539 1.71% 13.39% 84.89%-3.25 -1.4 9
2009-03-21 MOIK Baku W 2-026.5 1454 871 83.58% 14.17% 2.24%+2.99 +2.2 40
2009-03-21 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-226.5 871 1454 2.24% 14.17% 83.58%-2.99 -2.2 5
2009-03-21 Neftchi Baku L 0-328.6 1051 1358 10.91% 18.24% 70.85%-1.46 -16.3 11
2009-03-21 @ Mughan W 3-028.6 1358 1051 70.85% 18.24% 10.91%+1.46 +16.3 24
2009-03-21 Inter Baku L 0-130.6 1036 1576 3.30% 15.27% 81.43%-2.62 -1.8 8
2009-03-21 @ Turan W 1-030.6 1576 1036 81.43% 15.27% 3.30%+2.62 +1.8 46
2009-03-22 Karvan W 3-037.3 1249 1248 42.41% 19.81% 37.77%+0.08 +49.2 23
2009-03-22 @ Gabala L 0-337.3 1248 1249 37.77% 19.81% 42.41%-0.08 -49.2 26
2009-03-22 Qarabag D 0-052.7 1364 1347 44.65% 19.80% 35.56%+0.16 -1.0 38
2009-03-22 @ Simurq Zaqatala D 0-052.7 1347 1364 35.56% 19.80% 44.65%-0.16 +1.0 32
2009-03-22 Olimpik Baku D 0-053.2 1331 1416 30.59% 19.72% 49.68%-0.35 +2.2 30
2009-03-22 @ Standard Baku D 0-053.2 1416 1331 49.68% 19.72% 30.59%+0.35 -2.2 33
2009-04-04 Gabala L 0-131.4 903 1298 6.98% 17.24% 75.78%-1.90 -3.8 9
2009-04-04 @ Bakili Baku W 1-031.4 1298 903 75.78% 17.24% 6.98%+1.90 +3.8 26
2009-04-04 Mughan W 2-027.7 1577 1035 82.44% 14.78% 2.78%+2.79 +2.8 49
2009-04-04 @ Inter Baku L 0-227.7 1035 1577 2.78% 14.78% 82.44%-2.79 -2.8 11
2009-04-04 Simurq Zaqatala L 1-340.5 1199 1363 21.67% 19.39% 58.94%-0.75 -18.3 26
2009-04-04 @ Karvan W 3-140.5 1363 1199 58.94% 19.39% 21.67%+0.75 +18.3 41
2009-04-05 Baku W 2-160.8 1414 1541 25.59% 19.57% 54.84%-0.56 +23.3 36
2009-04-05 @ Olimpik Baku L 1-260.8 1541 1414 54.84% 19.57% 25.59%+0.56 -23.3 47
2009-04-05 MOIK Baku W 3-133.2 1374 869 81.30% 15.33% 3.37%+2.60 +2.9 27
2009-04-05 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-333.2 869 1374 3.37% 15.33% 81.30%-2.60 -2.9 5
2009-04-05 Standard Baku W 4-035.0 1457 1333 57.89% 19.44% 22.66%+0.70 +41.8 43
2009-04-05 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-435.0 1333 1457 22.66% 19.44% 57.89%-0.70 -41.8 30
2009-04-05 Turan W 4-239.3 1348 1034 73.16% 17.83% 9.01%+1.65 +7.2 35
2009-04-05 @ Qarabag L 2-439.3 1034 1348 9.01% 17.83% 73.16%-1.65 -7.2 8
2009-04-11 Bakili Baku W 3-025.5 1381 900 80.53% 15.66% 3.80%+2.49 +5.6 44
2009-04-11 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-325.5 900 1381 3.80% 15.66% 80.53%-2.49 -5.6 9
2009-04-11 Baku L 1-244.6 1291 1518 16.17% 18.97% 64.87%-1.06 -8.1 30
2009-04-11 @ Standard Baku W 2-144.6 1518 1291 64.87% 18.97% 16.17%+1.06 +8.1 50
2009-04-11 Qarabag L 1-238.9 1032 1355 10.05% 18.07% 71.88%-1.54 -5.2 11
2009-04-11 @ Mughan W 2-138.9 1355 1032 71.88% 18.07% 10.05%+1.54 +5.2 38
2009-04-12 Karvan W 4-042.2 1027 1181 22.75% 19.45% 57.81%-0.69 +93.0 11
2009-04-12 @ Turan L 0-442.2 1181 1027 57.81% 19.45% 22.75%+0.69 -93.0 26
2009-04-12 Khazar Lankaran W 2-158.0 1377 1498 26.28% 19.60% 54.12%-0.53 +23.0 30
2009-04-12 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-258.0 1498 1377 54.12% 19.60% 26.28%+0.53 -23.0 43
2009-04-12 Inter Baku L 0-324.1 866 1580 1.32% 12.65% 86.03%-3.49 -1.8 5
2009-04-12 @ MOIK Baku W 3-024.1 1580 866 86.03% 12.65% 1.32%+3.49 +1.8 52
2009-04-12 Olimpik Baku D 1-158.3 1302 1437 24.74% 19.54% 55.71%-0.60 +3.2 27
2009-04-12 @ Gabala D 1-158.3 1437 1302 55.71% 19.54% 24.74%+0.60 -3.2 37
2009-04-18 Baku W 3-049.1 1475 1526 35.18% 19.79% 45.03%-0.18 +56.8 46
2009-04-18 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-349.1 1526 1475 45.03% 19.79% 35.18%+0.18 -56.8 50
2009-04-18 MOIK Baku W 3-025.4 1361 864 81.01% 15.46% 3.53%+2.56 +5.2 41
2009-04-18 @ Qarabag L 0-325.4 864 1361 3.53% 15.46% 81.01%-2.56 -5.2 5
2009-04-18 Simurq Zaqatala L 0-246.1 1434 1387 48.64% 19.74% 31.62%+0.31 -41.8 37
2009-04-18 @ Olimpik Baku W 2-046.1 1387 1434 31.62% 19.74% 48.64%-0.31 +41.8 47
2009-04-18 Standard Baku W 2-147.5 1305 1283 45.41% 19.79% 34.80%+0.19 +15.9 30
2009-04-18 @ Gabala L 1-247.5 1283 1305 34.80% 19.79% 45.41%-0.19 -15.8 30
2009-04-19 Mughan W 3-142.4 1088 1027 50.40% 19.71% 29.89%+0.38 +24.2 29
2009-04-19 @ Karvan L 1-342.4 1027 1088 29.89% 19.71% 50.40%-0.38 -24.2 11
2009-04-19 Neftchi Baku D 2-271.5 1582 1400 63.61% 19.08% 17.31%+0.99 -3.7 53
2009-04-19 @ Inter Baku D 2-271.5 1400 1582 17.31% 19.08% 63.61%-0.99 +3.7 31
2009-04-19 Turan L 0-232.0 894 1120 16.23% 18.97% 64.80%-1.05 -16.3 9
2009-04-19 @ Bakili Baku W 2-032.0 1120 894 64.80% 18.97% 16.23%+1.05 +16.3 14
2009-04-25 Bakili Baku W 1-036.6 1003 878 58.05% 19.44% 22.51%+0.70 +11.6 14
2009-04-25 @ Mughan L 0-136.6 878 1003 22.51% 19.44% 58.05%-0.70 -11.6 9
2009-04-25 Khazar Lankaran D 2-275.8 1578 1532 48.58% 19.74% 31.68%+0.31 -1.3 54
2009-04-25 @ Inter Baku D 2-275.8 1532 1578 31.68% 19.74% 48.58%-0.31 +1.3 47
2009-04-25 Standard Baku W 3-140.8 1429 1267 61.77% 19.21% 19.01%+0.89 +16.3 50
2009-04-25 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 1-340.8 1267 1429 19.01% 19.21% 61.77%-0.89 -16.3 30
2009-04-26 Baku L 0-140.3 1321 1469 23.37% 19.48% 57.16%-0.66 -12.0 30
2009-04-26 @ Gabala W 1-040.3 1469 1321 57.16% 19.48% 23.37%+0.66 +12.0 53
2009-04-26 Karvan L 0-329.5 859 1112 14.25% 18.75% 66.99%-1.19 -21.0 5
2009-04-26 @ MOIK Baku W 3-029.5 1112 859 66.99% 18.75% 14.25%+1.19 +21.0 32
2009-04-26 Qarabag L 0-147.2 1404 1366 47.54% 19.76% 32.70%+0.27 -21.7 31
2009-04-26 @ Neftchi Baku W 1-047.2 1366 1404 32.70% 19.76% 47.54%-0.27 +21.7 44
2009-04-26 Olimpik Baku W 1-050.4 1136 1392 14.03% 18.73% 67.24%-1.20 +30.1 17
2009-04-26 @ Turan L 0-150.4 1392 1136 67.24% 18.73% 14.03%+1.20 -30.1 37
2009-05-02 MOIK Baku W 1-040.2 866 838 46.14% 19.78% 34.08%+0.22 +16.5 12
2009-05-02 @ Bakili Baku L 0-140.2 838 866 34.08% 19.78% 46.14%-0.22 -16.5 5
2009-05-02 Simurq Zaqatala W 1-047.2 1481 1445 47.18% 19.77% 33.05%+0.25 +16.1 56
2009-05-02 @ Baku L 0-147.2 1445 1481 33.05% 19.77% 47.18%-0.25 -16.1 50
2009-05-02 Turan W 4-138.9 1251 1166 53.38% 19.62% 27.00%+0.50 +31.4 33
2009-05-02 @ Standard Baku L 1-438.9 1166 1251 27.00% 19.62% 53.38%-0.50 -31.4 17
2009-05-03 Gabala L 1-260.7 1533 1309 67.17% 18.73% 14.10%+1.20 -28.4 47
2009-05-03 @ Khazar Lankaran W 2-160.7 1309 1533 14.10% 18.73% 67.17%-1.20 +28.4 33
2009-05-03 Mughan W 1-031.7 1362 1015 74.93% 17.45% 7.62%+1.81 +4.2 40
2009-05-03 @ Olimpik Baku L 0-131.7 1015 1362 7.62% 17.45% 74.93%-1.81 -4.2 14
2009-05-03 Neftchi Baku D 1-156.6 1133 1382 14.47% 18.78% 66.75%-1.17 +5.7 33
2009-05-03 @ Karvan D 1-156.6 1382 1133 66.75% 18.78% 14.47%+1.17 -5.7 32
2009-05-03 Inter Baku D 1-164.6 1387 1577 19.28% 19.23% 61.49%-0.87 +4.5 45
2009-05-03 @ Qarabag D 1-164.6 1577 1387 61.49% 19.23% 19.28%+0.87 -4.5 55
2009-05-09 Bakili Baku W 3-025.4 1377 883 80.94% 15.49% 3.57%+2.55 +5.2 35
2009-05-09 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-325.4 883 1377 3.57% 15.49% 80.94%-2.55 -5.2 12
2009-05-09 Baku L 0-230.4 1135 1497 8.25% 17.63% 74.12%-1.73 -8.5 17
2009-05-09 @ Turan W 2-030.4 1497 1135 74.12% 17.63% 8.25%+1.73 +8.5 59
2009-05-09 Karvan W 4-027.4 1573 1138 78.79% 16.33% 4.87%+2.25 +9.4 58
2009-05-09 @ Inter Baku L 0-427.4 1138 1573 4.87% 16.33% 78.79%-2.25 -9.4 33
2009-05-09 Khazar Lankaran W 1-052.2 1392 1505 27.21% 19.63% 53.16%-0.49 +24.0 48
2009-05-09 @ Qarabag L 0-152.2 1505 1392 53.16% 19.63% 27.21%+0.49 -24.0 47
2009-05-11 Gabala W 1-040.7 1429 1338 54.24% 19.60% 26.17%+0.53 +13.2 53
2009-05-11 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 0-140.7 1338 1429 26.17% 19.60% 54.24%-0.53 -13.2 33
2009-05-11 Olimpik Baku L 1-626.8 822 1366 3.23% 15.20% 81.57%-2.65 -6.3 5
2009-05-11 @ MOIK Baku W 6-126.8 1366 822 81.57% 15.20% 3.23%+2.65 +6.3 43
2009-05-11 Standard Baku L 1-337.1 1011 1282 12.99% 18.58% 68.42%-1.28 -11.5 14
2009-05-11 @ Mughan W 3-137.1 1282 1011 68.42% 18.58% 12.99%+1.28 +11.5 36
2009-05-16 MOIK Baku W 2-136.1 1293 815 80.40% 15.72% 3.88%+2.47 +2.0 39
2009-05-16 @ Standard Baku L 1-236.1 815 1293 3.88% 15.72% 80.40%-2.47 -2.0 5
2009-05-16 Simurq Zaqatala W 3-150.4 1481 1442 47.59% 19.76% 32.65%+0.27 +26.0 50
2009-05-16 @ Khazar Lankaran L 1-350.4 1442 1481 32.65% 19.76% 47.59%-0.27 -26.0 53
2009-05-17 Mughan W 4-025.0 1505 999 81.34% 15.31% 3.35%+2.61 +6.4 62
2009-05-17 @ Baku L 0-425.0 999 1505 3.35% 15.31% 81.34%-2.61 -6.4 14
2009-05-17 Neftchi Baku D 0-053.3 1372 1382 40.90% 19.82% 39.28%+0.03 -0.2 44
2009-05-17 @ Olimpik Baku D 0-053.3 1382 1372 39.28% 19.82% 40.90%-0.03 +0.2 36
2009-05-17 Qarabag D 0-051.6 1129 1416 12.03% 18.44% 69.53%-1.36 +7.1 34
2009-05-17 @ Karvan D 0-051.6 1416 1129 69.53% 18.44% 12.03%+1.36 -7.1 49
2009-05-17 Inter Baku L 1-527.1 877 1582 1.39% 12.80% 85.81%-3.45 -2.1 12
2009-05-17 @ Bakili Baku W 5-127.1 1582 877 85.81% 12.80% 1.39%+3.45 +2.1 61
2009-05-17 Turan L 0-149.5 1324 1126 65.02% 18.95% 16.02%+1.07 -29.2 33
2009-05-17 @ Gabala W 1-049.5 1126 1324 16.02% 18.95% 65.02%-1.07 +29.1 20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2009-02-22 5.44% @ Bakili Baku 893 2 Karvan 1336 1
2 2008-11-09 13.56% @ Bakili Baku 879 3 Mughan 1141 2
3 2009-04-26 14.03% @ Turan 1136 1 Olimpik Baku 1392 0
4 2009-05-03 14.10% Gabala 1309 2 @ Khazar Lankaran 1533 1
5 2008-08-10 14.97% @ Karvan 1211 1 Khazar Lankaran 1454 0
6 2009-05-17 16.02% Turan 1126 1 @ Gabala 1324 0
7 2008-11-23 17.19% Qarabag 1308 3 @ Khazar Lankaran 1491 1
8 2008-08-31 20.15% @ MOIK Baku 950 2 Turan 1130 0
9 2008-09-21 20.87% Karvan 1275 3 @ Baku 1417 0
10 2009-02-28 21.62% Standard Baku 1264 1 @ Qarabag 1398 0
11 2009-04-12 22.75% @ Turan 1027 4 Karvan 1181 0
12 2008-08-09 23.05% @ Standard Baku 1291 1 Neftchi Baku 1442 0
13 2009-03-08 25.13% Neftchi Baku 1319 2 @ Simurq Zaqatala 1419 0
14 2009-02-28 25.28% Baku 1487 1 @ Inter Baku 1587 0
15 2009-04-05 25.59% @ Olimpik Baku 1414 2 Baku 1541 1
16 2009-04-12 26.28% @ Neftchi Baku 1377 2 Khazar Lankaran 1498 1
17 2009-05-09 27.21% @ Qarabag 1392 1 Khazar Lankaran 1505 0
18 2008-08-16 30.80% Baku 1363 1 @ Neftchi Baku 1416 0
19 2009-04-18 31.62% Simurq Zaqatala 1387 2 @ Olimpik Baku 1434 0
20 2009-04-26 32.70% Qarabag 1366 1 @ Neftchi Baku 1404 0
21 2009-02-21 32.81% Qarabag 1376 1 @ Olimpik Baku 1414 0
22 2008-08-31 33.20% @ Karvan 1240 3 Standard Baku 1305 1
23 2008-11-15 34.93% Karvan 1337 1 @ Neftchi Baku 1359 0
24 2008-11-16 35.09% @ Simurq Zaqatala 1391 2 Baku 1442 1
25 2009-04-18 35.18% @ Khazar Lankaran 1475 3 Baku 1526 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-04-12 92.96 @ Turan 4 1027 22.75% Karvan 0 1181 57.81% 19.45%
2 2008-09-21 73.50 Karvan 3 1275 20.87% @ Baku 0 1417 59.79% 19.34%
3 2009-04-18 56.81 @ Khazar Lankaran 3 1475 35.18% Baku 0 1526 45.03% 19.79%
4 2008-08-31 51.24 @ MOIK Baku 2 950 20.15% Turan 0 1130 60.55% 19.29%
5 2009-03-22 49.20 @ Gabala 3 1249 42.41% Karvan 0 1248 37.77% 19.81%
6 2009-02-14 49.00 Gabala 4 1189 53.12% @ Mughan 0 1076 27.25% 19.63%
7 2009-03-08 46.99 Neftchi Baku 2 1319 25.13% @ Simurq Zaqatala 0 1419 55.31% 19.56%
8 2008-11-23 46.67 Qarabag 3 1308 17.19% @ Khazar Lankaran 1 1491 63.74% 19.07%
9 2009-04-18 41.81 Simurq Zaqatala 2 1387 31.62% @ Olimpik Baku 0 1434 48.64% 19.74%
10 2009-04-05 41.78 @ Khazar Lankaran 4 1457 57.89% Standard Baku 0 1333 22.66% 19.44%
11 2009-03-07 41.48 @ Turan 3 987 49.58% MOIK Baku 0 933 30.69% 19.72%
12 2008-09-27 37.37 Simurq Zaqatala 2 1299 37.54% @ Qarabag 0 1302 42.65% 19.81%
13 2008-08-09 37.29 @ Gabala 4 1244 47.08% Mughan 1 1209 33.15% 19.77%
14 2008-10-05 36.58 @ Simurq Zaqatala 2 1336 38.64% Karvan 0 1362 41.55% 19.82%
15 2008-10-25 35.67 @ Standard Baku 2 1237 39.91% Gabala 0 1254 40.28% 19.82%
16 2008-08-31 35.17 @ Karvan 3 1240 33.20% Standard Baku 1 1305 47.03% 19.77%
17 2009-03-08 33.83 @ Standard Baku 2 1290 42.47% Karvan 0 1289 37.72% 19.81%
18 2008-10-04 33.43 @ Baku 3 1362 35.87% Olimpik Baku 1 1407 44.33% 19.80%
19 2009-02-22 32.76 @ Bakili Baku 2 893 5.44% Karvan 1 1336 77.94% 16.62%
20 2009-05-02 31.38 @ Standard Baku 4 1251 53.38% Turan 1 1166 27.00% 19.62%
21 2008-08-16 30.95 @ Inter Baku 3 1449 58.77% Standard Baku 0 1317 21.83% 19.40%
22 2009-04-26 30.15 @ Turan 1 1136 14.03% Olimpik Baku 0 1392 67.24% 18.73%
23 2008-08-10 29.68 @ Karvan 1 1211 14.97% Khazar Lankaran 0 1454 66.19% 18.84%
24 2008-08-30 29.45 Baku 2 1388 48.41% @ Qarabag 0 1312 31.84% 19.75%
25 2009-05-17 29.16 Turan 1 1126 16.02% @ Gabala 0 1324 65.02% 18.95%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-04-25 75.8 @ Inter Baku 2 1578 48.58% Khazar Lankaran 2 1532 31.68% 19.74%
2 2009-04-19 71.5 @ Inter Baku 2 1582 63.61% Neftchi Baku 2 1400 17.31% 19.08%
3 2008-11-29 66.8 @ Simurq Zaqatala 2 1405 36.67% Khazar Lankaran 2 1444 43.52% 19.81%
4 2009-05-03 64.6 @ Qarabag 1 1387 19.28% Inter Baku 1 1577 61.49% 19.23%
5 2008-11-15 61.4 @ Inter Baku 1 1558 69.57% Qarabag 1 1301 12.00% 18.43%
6 2008-08-10 61.3 @ Olimpik Baku 1 1421 38.26% Inter Baku 1 1449 41.92% 19.82%
7 2008-11-09 61.2 @ Bakili Baku 3 879 13.56% Mughan 2 1141 67.78% 18.66%
8 2009-04-05 60.8 @ Olimpik Baku 2 1414 25.59% Baku 1 1541 54.84% 19.57%
9 2009-05-03 60.7 Gabala 2 1309 14.10% @ Khazar Lankaran 1 1533 67.17% 18.73%
10 2008-11-09 60.4 Inter Baku 4 1531 40.68% @ Khazar Lankaran 2 1512 39.50% 19.82%
11 2009-02-28 59.1 Baku 1 1487 25.28% @ Inter Baku 0 1587 55.16% 19.56%
12 2008-08-30 58.9 @ Inter Baku 1 1477 64.79% Gabala 1 1282 16.24% 18.97%
13 2008-10-26 58.7 @ Simurq Zaqatala 1 1377 40.95% Olimpik Baku 1 1386 39.24% 19.82%
14 2009-02-22 58.6 @ Bakili Baku 2 893 5.44% Karvan 1 1336 77.94% 16.62%
15 2008-08-16 58.5 @ Qarabag 1 1329 29.74% Olimpik Baku 1 1422 50.55% 19.70%
16 2009-04-12 58.3 @ Gabala 1 1302 24.74% Olimpik Baku 1 1437 55.71% 19.54%
17 2008-10-26 58.1 @ Baku 0 1416 29.03% Khazar Lankaran 0 1514 51.28% 19.69%
18 2009-04-12 58.0 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1377 26.28% Khazar Lankaran 1 1498 54.12% 19.60%
19 2008-11-08 57.2 @ Qarabag 1 1300 33.93% Neftchi Baku 1 1360 46.29% 19.78%
20 2009-03-15 56.7 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1366 74.42% Turan 1 1028 8.01% 17.57%
21 2008-09-21 56.6 @ Standard Baku 1 1270 76.12% Bakili Baku 1 899 6.73% 17.15%
22 2009-05-03 56.6 @ Karvan 1 1133 14.47% Neftchi Baku 1 1382 66.75% 18.78%
23 2008-10-18 56.4 @ Karvan 1 1325 70.68% Turan 1 1052 11.05% 18.27%
24 2009-03-14 56.1 @ Khazar Lankaran 0 1456 48.05% Olimpik Baku 0 1414 32.19% 19.75%
25 2008-08-24 56.0 @ Baku 0 1385 29.44% Inter Baku 0 1480 50.87% 19.70%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-11-30 23.6 @ Inter Baku 4 1561 85.49% Bakili Baku 0 902 1.50% 13.01%
2 2009-04-12 24.1 Inter Baku 3 1580 86.03% @ MOIK Baku 0 866 1.32% 12.65%
3 2009-03-01 24.7 @ Khazar Lankaran 5 1443 81.68% Bakili Baku 0 926 3.17% 15.15%
4 2009-03-07 24.8 @ Olimpik Baku 4 1407 80.76% Bakili Baku 0 918 3.68% 15.57%
5 2009-05-17 25.0 @ Baku 4 1505 81.34% Mughan 0 999 3.35% 15.31%
6 2009-04-18 25.4 @ Qarabag 3 1361 81.01% MOIK Baku 0 864 3.53% 15.46%
7 2009-05-09 25.4 @ Neftchi Baku 3 1377 80.94% Bakili Baku 0 883 3.57% 15.49%
8 2009-04-11 25.5 @ Simurq Zaqatala 3 1381 80.53% Bakili Baku 0 900 3.80% 15.66%
9 2008-09-26 25.6 Khazar Lankaran 4 1470 78.97% @ MOIK Baku 0 1001 4.76% 16.27%
10 2009-02-14 25.6 @ Qarabag 3 1370 80.17% Bakili Baku 0 899 4.02% 15.81%
11 2009-02-14 25.7 Baku 3 1459 80.33% @ MOIK Baku 0 953 3.93% 15.75%
12 2008-09-28 26.3 Baku 7 1344 77.68% @ Bakili Baku 0 907 5.62% 16.70%
13 2008-10-05 26.4 Neftchi Baku 5 1390 75.96% @ MOIK Baku 0 992 6.85% 17.19%
14 2009-03-21 26.5 @ Khazar Lankaran 2 1454 83.58% MOIK Baku 0 871 2.24% 14.17%
15 2008-11-22 26.6 @ Baku 7 1422 77.33% Turan 0 1024 5.86% 16.81%
16 2008-09-28 26.8 @ Inter Baku 3 1494 78.46% Turan 0 1069 5.09% 16.45%
17 2009-05-11 26.8 Olimpik Baku 6 1366 81.57% @ MOIK Baku 1 822 3.23% 15.20%
18 2008-09-13 26.9 @ Khazar Lankaran 5 1434 75.35% Turan 0 1078 7.30% 17.35%
19 2008-10-05 26.9 @ Gabala 3 1256 75.95% Bakili Baku 0 888 6.86% 17.20%
20 2009-05-17 27.1 Inter Baku 5 1582 85.81% @ Bakili Baku 1 877 1.39% 12.80%
21 2008-10-19 27.2 @ Inter Baku 2 1507 82.14% MOIK Baku 0 975 2.93% 14.93%
22 2009-05-09 27.4 @ Inter Baku 4 1573 78.79% Karvan 0 1138 4.87% 16.33%
23 2008-10-19 27.5 Simurq Zaqatala 2 1373 79.93% @ Bakili Baku 0 878 4.16% 15.91%
24 2008-11-29 27.5 Baku 4 1442 73.35% @ Mughan 0 1094 8.85% 17.79%
25 2008-11-08 27.6 @ Olimpik Baku 3 1387 74.22% Turan 0 1053 8.17% 17.61%