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2010-11 Azerbaijan Premier League Season

192 games

Final

Champion

Neftchi Baku

48 points · 6th Title

Last Title: 2004-05

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Khazar Lankaran

7.88 points above expected

47 points · 39.12 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Simurq Zaqatala

11.63 points below expected

12 points · 23.63 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Neftchi Baku Champion 22 14 6 2 48 40 9 +31 41.13 +6.87
2 Khazar Lankaran 22 14 5 3 47 28 12 +16 39.12 +7.88
3 Qarabag 22 13 3 6 42 30 14 +16 34.74 +7.26
4 Inter Baku 22 12 4 6 40 24 16 +8 38.29 +1.71
5 AZAL 22 9 9 4 36 27 16 +11 35.23 +0.77
6 Baku 22 9 6 7 33 28 21 +7 35.21 -2.21
7 Gabala 22 8 7 7 31 19 14 +5 31.83 -0.83
8 Mughan 22 7 6 9 27 14 23 -9 24.24 +2.76
9 Ganja 22 5 9 8 24 23 27 -4 23.10 +0.90
10 Turan 22 3 6 13 15 17 35 -18 22.47 -7.47
11 Simurq Zaqatala 22 2 6 14 12 12 34 -22 23.63 -11.63
12 MOIK Baku 22 1 3 18 6 6 47 -41 10.89 -4.89
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Gabala 10 5 5 0 20 12 4 +8 50.40 -30.40
2 Mughan 10 6 2 2 20 15 8 +7 43.11 -23.11
3 Neftchi Baku 10 5 4 1 19 13 8 +5 65.03 -46.03
4 Qarabag 10 4 4 2 16 11 8 +3 55.55 -39.55
5 Khazar Lankaran 10 2 7 1 13 10 6 +4 62.15 -49.15
6 AZAL 10 4 1 5 13 9 12 -3 47.77 -34.77
7 Ganja 10 3 3 4 12 10 10 0 39.42 -27.42
8 MOIK Baku 10 3 3 4 12 8 8 0 11.61 +0.39
9 Turan 10 4 0 6 12 7 12 -5 28.19 -16.19
10 Inter Baku 10 1 6 3 9 5 8 -3 51.30 -42.30
11 Baku 10 1 4 5 7 5 11 -6 45.44 -38.44
12 Simurq Zaqatala 10 2 1 7 7 8 18 -10 24.19 -17.19

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Khazar Lankaran 47 39.12 +7.88
2 Qarabag 42 34.74 +7.26
3 Neftchi Baku 48 41.13 +6.87
4 Mughan 27 24.24 +2.76
5 Inter Baku 40 38.29 +1.71

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Simurq Zaqatala 12 23.63 -11.63
2 Turan 15 22.47 -7.47
3 MOIK Baku 6 10.89 -4.89
4 Baku 33 35.21 -2.21
5 Gabala 31 31.83 -0.83

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Qarabag 7 Dec 4 – Feb 25 1 in 341
2 Ganja 3 Sep 26 – Oct 17 1 in 86
3 Neftchi Baku 5 Aug 15 – Sep 18 1 in 61
4 Gabala 3 Sep 25 – Oct 16 1 in 17
5 Inter Baku 4 Dec 18 – Feb 19 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 MOIK Baku 8 Sep 12 – Nov 5 1 in 28
2 Inter Baku 2 Nov 28 – Dec 4 1 in 15
3 Baku 3 Oct 20 – Oct 31 1 in 13
4 Gabala 3 Aug 7 – Aug 22 1 in 12
5 Qarabag 3 Nov 13 – Nov 28 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gabala 12 Sep 25 – Dec 19 1 in 156
2 Ganja 5 Aug 7 – Sep 18 1 in 27
3 Mughan 4 Dec 23 – Feb 27 1 in 18
4 AZAL 10 Oct 16 – Dec 19 1 in 15
5 Qarabag 7 Dec 4 – Feb 25 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AZAL 7 Dec 4 – Feb 25 1 in 72
2 Simurq Zaqatala 9 Aug 7 – Oct 17 1 in 20
3 Turan 10 Aug 8 – Oct 23 1 in 17
4 Gabala 5 Dec 19 – Feb 27 1 in 13
5 MOIK Baku 21 Aug 15 – Feb 25 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Neftchi Baku 1566 67 -22 8 9.3 -1.3
Khazar Lankaran 1537 60 +40 9 8.0 +1.0
Qarabag 1517 58 +22 8 7.6 +0.4
Gabala 1408 51 +0 9 10.3 -1.3
Inter Baku 1411 49 +14 6 5.0 +1.0
AZAL 1432 49 -24 4 5.2 -1.2
Mughan 1330 47 +30 12 8.7 +3.3
Baku 1399 40 -30 4 5.6 -1.6
Ganja 1248 36 -8 7 7.7 -0.7
Turan 1158 27 -60 3 6.4 -3.4
Simurq Zaqatala 1123 19 -22 4 4.8 -0.8
MOIK Baku 1047 18 +59 7 3.0 +4.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AZA BAK GAB GAN IB KL MB MUG NB QAR SZ TUR
AZAL —
1-1-0
2.45
0-2-0
3.17
0-2-0
3.91
1-1-0
2.73
0-0-2
2.25
1-1-0
4.79
1-0-1
4.17
0-1-1
2.17
1-1-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.82
2-0-0
3.91
Baku
0-1-1
2.96
—
2-0-0
2.92
1-1-0
3.48
0-0-2
2.83
0-2-0
2.22
2-0-0
4.82
0-1-1
3.87
1-0-1
1.82
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
3.84
2-0-0
3.93
Gabala
0-2-0
2.23
0-0-2
2.50
—
0-2-0
3.33
0-1-1
2.07
1-0-1
2.03
1-1-0
4.57
1-0-1
3.49
0-1-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.32
2-0-0
3.49
2-0-0
3.46
Ganja
0-2-0
1.54
0-1-1
1.97
0-2-0
2.09
—
1-0-1
1.38
1-0-1
1.42
2-0-0
4.00
1-1-0
2.61
0-0-2
1.48
0-0-2
1.55
0-2-0
2.42
0-1-1
2.75
Inter Baku
0-1-1
2.67
2-0-0
2.57
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
4.09
—
0-1-1
2.57
2-0-0
4.92
1-0-1
3.97
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
3.05
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.78
Khazar Lankaran
2-0-0
3.15
0-2-0
3.19
1-0-1
3.38
1-0-1
4.04
1-1-0
2.83
—
2-0-0
4.99
1-1-0
4.15
1-1-0
2.46
1-0-1
3.12
2-0-0
3.84
2-0-0
4.19
MOIK Baku
0-1-1
0.81
0-0-2
0.79
0-1-1
0.98
0-0-2
1.48
0-0-2
0.71
0-0-2
0.66
—
1-0-1
1.44
0-0-2
0.65
0-0-2
0.95
0-1-1
1.38
0-0-2
1.35
Mughan
1-0-1
1.31
1-1-0
1.58
1-0-1
1.92
0-1-1
2.81
1-0-1
1.49
0-1-1
1.33
1-0-1
4.04
—
0-0-2
1.28
0-1-1
1.59
2-0-0
3.00
0-2-0
2.79
Neftchi Baku
1-1-0
3.24
1-0-1
3.61
1-1-0
3.27
2-0-0
3.98
1-1-0
2.90
0-1-1
2.95
2-0-0
5.03
2-0-0
4.21
—
1-1-0
3.27
2-0-0
4.14
1-1-0
4.41
Qarabag
0-1-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
3.08
2-0-0
3.90
1-0-1
2.35
1-0-1
2.30
2-0-0
4.62
1-1-0
3.85
0-1-1
2.13
—
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
3.95
Simurq Zaqatala
0-0-2
1.61
1-1-0
1.62
0-0-2
1.95
0-2-0
2.97
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
1.63
1-1-0
4.10
0-0-2
2.39
0-0-2
1.34
0-0-2
1.64
—
0-2-0
2.74
Turan
0-0-2
1.53
0-0-2
1.52
0-0-2
1.99
1-1-0
2.64
0-0-2
1.67
0-0-2
1.30
2-0-0
4.13
0-2-0
2.61
0-1-1
1.12
0-0-2
1.53
0-2-0
2.66
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +13.2
Allowed 0.92 -11.5
Differential 0.94 +6.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.02%14.32%7.03%3.65%1.56%0.52%40.10%
114.32%13.54%4.69%1.82%0.52%0.26%35.16%
27.03%4.69%2.08%0.78%—0.26%14.84%
33.65%1.82%0.78%—0.26%—6.51%
41.56%0.52%—0.26%——2.34%
5+0.52%0.26%0.26%———1.04%
Total40.10%35.16%14.84%6.51%2.34%1.04%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.99 0.99 +0.00
SD 1.10 1.10 1.67
CV 1.11 1.11 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%9.38%—3.12%——31.25%
115.62%9.38%9.38%6.25%——40.62%
29.38%6.25%3.12%———18.75%
3—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
4———————
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total46.88%28.12%15.62%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 0.88 +0.25
SD 1.13 1.01 1.50
CV 1.00 1.15 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%18.75%12.50%———40.62%
16.25%18.75%3.12%———28.12%
26.25%9.38%3.12%3.12%——21.88%
3—6.25%————6.25%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total25.00%53.12%18.75%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.00 +0.03
SD 1.09 0.76 1.40
CV 1.06 0.76 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
028.12%12.50%3.12%3.12%——46.88%
112.50%6.25%3.12%———21.88%
29.38%9.38%3.12%———21.88%
36.25%—————6.25%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total59.38%28.12%9.38%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 0.56 +0.41
SD 1.12 0.80 1.46
CV 1.16 1.42 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%15.62%—3.12%3.12%—37.50%
112.50%21.88%6.25%3.12%——43.75%
23.12%————3.12%6.25%
33.12%———3.12%—6.25%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total37.50%40.62%6.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.16 -0.12
SD 1.23 1.44 1.83
CV 1.19 1.24 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%15.62%6.25%——3.12%37.50%
125.00%18.75%—3.12%——46.88%
23.12%3.12%————6.25%
36.25%—————6.25%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total50.00%37.50%6.25%3.12%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 0.75 +0.16
SD 1.00 1.08 1.69
CV 1.10 1.44 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%6.25%————21.88%
118.75%21.88%3.12%—3.12%—46.88%
215.62%6.25%————21.88%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total56.25%37.50%3.12%—3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 0.56 +0.62
SD 0.90 0.84 1.26
CV 0.75 1.49 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%25.00%18.75%9.38%9.38%3.12%75.00%
13.12%9.38%3.12%———15.62%
2—3.12%————3.12%
3——3.12%———3.12%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total12.50%40.62%25.00%9.38%9.38%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.44 1.72 -1.28
SD 0.95 1.28 1.73
CV 2.17 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%12.50%6.25%——37.50%
125.00%12.50%6.25%———43.75%
2—6.25%—3.12%——9.38%
33.12%6.25%————9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.62%31.25%18.75%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 0.97 -0.06
SD 0.93 1.00 1.46
CV 1.02 1.03 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%3.12%3.12%3.12%——21.88%
115.62%15.62%————31.25%
218.75%3.12%3.12%———25.00%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
49.38%—————9.38%
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total62.50%25.00%9.38%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 0.53 +1.12
SD 1.45 0.80 1.70
CV 0.88 1.51 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%9.38%9.38%———31.25%
121.88%6.25%3.12%3.12%——34.38%
29.38%3.12%3.12%———15.62%
312.50%—3.12%———15.62%
4———————
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total56.25%21.88%18.75%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.69 +0.59
SD 1.25 0.90 1.62
CV 0.98 1.30 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%25.00%9.38%9.38%6.25%—56.25%
16.25%12.50%9.38%3.12%——31.25%
23.12%—3.12%3.12%——9.38%
3———————
4———3.12%——3.12%
5+———————
Total15.62%37.50%21.88%18.75%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 1.62 -1.00
SD 0.91 1.16 1.41
CV 1.45 0.71 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%25.00%9.38%6.25%——43.75%
19.38%9.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%3.12%37.50%
26.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%40.62%25.00%9.38%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.47 -0.72
SD 0.76 1.19 1.46
CV 1.02 0.81 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Neftchi Baku 1566 48 41.13 +6.87 91.0% 26 32 38 40 45 50 54
Khazar Lankaran 1537 47 39.12 +7.88 94.0% 25 31 35 39 43 48 54
Qarabag 1517 42 34.74 +7.26 91.0% 22 25 31 35 39 44 47
AZAL 1432 36 35.23 +0.77 58.0% 25 27 31 35 39 45 47
Inter Baku 1411 40 38.29 +1.71 66.0% 25 29 34 38 42 46 52
Gabala 1408 31 31.83 -0.83 48.0% 19 23 27 32 37 41 47
Baku 1399 33 35.21 -2.21 42.0% 26 28 31 35 39 44 53
Mughan 1330 27 24.24 +2.76 75.0% 12 15 21 25 27 31 39
Ganja 1248 24 23.10 +0.90 65.0% 10 15 20 23 26 32 37
Turan 1158 15 22.47 -7.47 7.0% 10 15 19 22 26 30 35
Simurq Zaqatala 1123 12 23.63 -11.63 2.0% 7 15 19 23 28 34 41
MOIK Baku 1047 6 10.89 -4.89 15.0% 1 4 8 11 13 19 29

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7.5% * Slight Edge: 7.5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.19%
Clear Edge
44.27%28.65%27.08%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 60.31 Elo pts.
218 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.34 * Runaway: 0.34 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.1
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
32%
Neftchi Baku, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.3 * Some Luck: 4.3 to 6.45 * Lucky: 6.45 to 8.6 * Wild Swing: 8.6 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.23 * Close: 1.23 to 1.85 * Off: 1.85 to 2.46 * Way Off: 2.46 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.73 points
Some Luck
05.3813
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.83
Pinpoint
01.544
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
94.00%
Khazar Lankaran
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
2.00%
Simurq Zaqatala
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.21 * Even: 0.21 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.15 * Moderate Separation: 2.15 to 2.3 * Strong Separation: 2.3 to 2.6 * Wide Separation: 2.6 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 73.5% * Slight Edge: 73.5% to 77.5% * Clear Edge: 77.5% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92% * Clear Edge: 92% to 97% * Strong Edge: 97% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59% * Some Drama: 59% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 67% * Very Frequent: 67% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14% * Occasional: 14% to 17.5% * Frequent: 17.5% to 21.5% * Very Frequent: 21.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Top-Heavy
00.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 166.18
2.27
Moderate Separation
12.152.63.25
Interquartile Edge
76%
Slight Edge
50%73.5%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
97%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
69%
Very Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.55 * Lopsided: 0.55 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.65 * Strong Carryover: 0.65 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Upset-Prone: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 17.5% * Very Shaky: 17.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.06
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Near-Lock
00.470.651
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
As Expected
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.55
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.22
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.082
Well Within Noise
00.1200.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Neftchi Baku32.00%27.00%14.00%14.00%6.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%————
Khazar Lankaran20.00%23.00%22.00%12.00%11.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%————
Qarabag9.00%10.00%8.00%16.00%21.00%15.00%10.00%6.00%4.00%1.00%——
Inter Baku18.00%15.00%20.00%20.00%11.00%9.00%3.00%4.00%————
AZAL9.00%10.00%15.00%13.00%17.00%20.00%7.00%6.00%3.00%———
Baku7.00%11.00%8.00%9.00%17.00%25.00%15.00%8.00%————
Gabala4.00%3.00%10.00%14.00%10.00%8.00%21.00%15.00%10.00%3.00%2.00%—
Mughan——1.00%—3.00%2.00%11.00%24.00%16.00%22.00%21.00%—
Ganja———1.00%2.00%2.00%5.00%14.00%33.00%21.00%17.00%5.00%
Turan—————3.00%10.00%10.00%18.00%27.00%28.00%4.00%
Simurq Zaqatala1.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%2.00%7.00%10.00%9.00%16.00%23.00%26.00%2.00%
MOIK Baku——————1.00%1.00%—3.00%6.00%89.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
AZAL 100% —
Baku 100% —
Gabala 100% —
Inter Baku 100% —
Khazar Lankaran 100% —
Neftchi Baku 100% —
Qarabag 100% —
Mughan 86.00% 14.00%
Ganja 76.00% 24.00%
Simurq Zaqatala 73.00% 27.00%
Turan 64.00% 36.00%
MOIK Baku 1.00% 99.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
AZAL 100% —
Baku 100% —
Gabala 100% —
Inter Baku 100% —
Khazar Lankaran 100% —
Neftchi Baku 100% —
Qarabag 100% —
Mughan 99.96% 0.04%
Ganja 99.58% 0.42%
Turan 73.11% 26.89%
Simurq Zaqatala 27.22% 72.78%
MOIK Baku 0.13% 99.87%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2010-08-07 Gabala W 1-042.1 1452 1373 52.65% 28.53% 18.81%+0.64 +8.2 3
2010-08-07 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-142.1 1373 1452 18.81% 28.53% 52.65%-0.64 -8.2 0
2010-08-07 AZAL L 2-362.8 1441 1376 51.09% 28.87% 20.04%+0.57 -16.0 0
2010-08-07 @ Baku W 3-262.8 1376 1441 20.04% 28.87% 51.09%-0.57 +16.0 3
2010-08-07 Simurq Zaqatala D 1-154.1 1228 1339 28.03% 30.13% 41.84%-0.23 +1.0 1
2010-08-07 @ Ganja D 1-154.1 1339 1228 41.84% 30.13% 28.03%+0.23 -1.0 1
2010-08-08 Mughan W 3-258.7 1109 1286 20.82% 29.06% 50.12%-0.53 +15.7 3
2010-08-08 @ MOIK Baku L 2-358.7 1286 1109 50.12% 29.06% 20.82%+0.53 -15.7 0
2010-08-08 Qarabag D 1-157.0 1395 1403 42.05% 30.11% 27.84%+0.24 -1.0 1
2010-08-08 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-157.0 1403 1395 27.84% 30.11% 42.05%-0.24 +1.0 1
2010-08-08 Inter Baku L 0-338.5 1315 1459 24.17% 29.69% 46.13%-0.38 -27.8 0
2010-08-08 @ Turan W 3-038.5 1459 1315 46.13% 29.69% 24.17%+0.38 +27.8 3
2010-08-14 Turan W 1-038.7 1392 1287 55.54% 27.80% 16.67%+0.76 +7.4 6
2010-08-14 @ AZAL L 0-138.7 1287 1392 16.67% 27.80% 55.54%-0.76 -7.4 0
2010-08-15 Baku W 1-048.6 1271 1425 23.05% 29.51% 47.43%-0.43 +16.8 3
2010-08-15 @ Mughan L 0-148.6 1425 1271 47.43% 29.51% 23.05%+0.43 -16.8 0
2010-08-15 Khazar Lankaran L 0-241.4 1338 1460 26.63% 30.00% 43.37%-0.28 -20.6 1
2010-08-15 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 2-041.4 1460 1338 43.37% 30.00% 26.63%+0.28 +20.6 6
2010-08-15 MOIK Baku W 1-031.7 1487 1125 76.79% 17.75% 5.46%+1.93 +2.2 6
2010-08-15 @ Inter Baku L 0-131.7 1125 1487 5.46% 17.75% 76.79%-1.93 -2.2 3
2010-08-15 Neftchi Baku L 0-244.5 1365 1394 39.21% 30.29% 30.50%+0.14 -27.3 0
2010-08-15 @ Gabala W 2-044.5 1394 1365 30.50% 30.29% 39.21%-0.14 +27.3 4
2010-08-21 Inter Baku D 0-056.3 1481 1489 42.03% 30.11% 27.85%+0.24 -1.1 7
2010-08-21 @ Khazar Lankaran D 0-056.3 1489 1481 27.85% 30.11% 42.03%-0.24 +1.1 7
2010-08-21 AZAL D 1-154.8 1229 1400 21.37% 29.19% 49.44%-0.51 +2.1 2
2010-08-21 @ Ganja D 1-154.8 1400 1229 49.44% 29.19% 21.37%+0.51 -2.1 7
2010-08-21 Simurq Zaqatala W 4-034.7 1421 1317 55.46% 27.82% 16.72%+0.76 +26.6 7
2010-08-21 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-434.7 1317 1421 16.72% 27.82% 55.46%-0.76 -26.6 1
2010-08-22 Gabala W 2-147.3 1408 1338 51.77% 28.73% 19.50%+0.60 +8.0 3
2010-08-22 @ Baku L 1-247.3 1338 1408 19.50% 28.73% 51.77%-0.60 -8.0 0
2010-08-22 Mughan D 1-154.1 1280 1287 42.13% 30.11% 27.76%+0.24 -1.0 1
2010-08-22 @ Turan D 1-154.1 1287 1280 27.76% 30.11% 42.13%-0.24 +1.0 4
2010-08-22 Qarabag L 0-135.9 1123 1404 13.01% 25.97% 61.02%-1.01 -5.8 3
2010-08-22 @ MOIK Baku W 1-035.9 1404 1123 61.02% 25.97% 13.01%+1.01 +5.8 4
2010-08-28 Ganja D 1-154.2 1288 1231 50.28% 29.03% 20.69%+0.54 -2.2 5
2010-08-28 @ Mughan D 1-154.2 1231 1288 20.69% 29.03% 50.28%-0.54 +2.2 3
2010-08-28 Neftchi Baku L 0-251.9 1490 1448 48.44% 29.36% 22.20%+0.47 -32.2 7
2010-08-28 @ Inter Baku W 2-051.9 1448 1490 22.20% 29.36% 48.44%-0.47 +32.2 10
2010-08-28 Turan D 2-260.2 1290 1279 44.65% 29.87% 25.48%+0.33 -1.0 2
2010-08-28 @ Simurq Zaqatala D 2-260.2 1279 1290 25.48% 29.87% 44.65%-0.33 +1.0 2
2010-08-29 Khazar Lankaran L 0-148.0 1398 1479 31.81% 30.34% 37.85%-0.10 -12.5 7
2010-08-29 @ AZAL W 1-048.0 1479 1398 37.85% 30.34% 31.81%+0.10 +12.5 10
2010-08-29 MOIK Baku D 0-049.6 1330 1117 65.62% 24.00% 10.38%+1.25 -5.0 1
2010-08-29 @ Gabala D 0-049.6 1117 1330 10.38% 24.00% 65.62%-1.25 +5.0 4
2010-09-11 Gabala L 0-144.8 1280 1325 37.02% 30.36% 32.62%+0.07 -13.9 2
2010-09-11 @ Turan W 1-044.8 1325 1280 32.62% 30.36% 37.02%-0.07 +13.9 4
2010-09-11 Qarabag W 1-044.3 1458 1410 49.10% 29.25% 21.65%+0.49 +9.3 10
2010-09-11 @ Inter Baku L 0-144.3 1410 1458 21.65% 29.25% 49.10%-0.49 -9.3 4
2010-09-12 Ganja D 1-156.2 1416 1233 63.08% 25.14% 11.79%+1.12 -4.2 4
2010-09-12 @ Baku D 1-156.2 1233 1416 11.79% 25.14% 63.08%-1.12 +4.2 4
2010-09-12 MOIK Baku W 3-027.1 1492 1122 77.31% 17.42% 5.27%+1.97 +5.6 13
2010-09-12 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-327.1 1122 1492 5.27% 17.42% 77.31%-1.97 -5.7 4
2010-09-12 Simurq Zaqatala W 2-145.5 1385 1289 54.55% 28.06% 17.38%+0.72 +7.2 10
2010-09-12 @ AZAL L 1-245.5 1289 1385 17.38% 28.06% 54.55%-0.72 -7.2 2
2010-09-14 Mughan W 1-037.4 1480 1286 64.03% 24.72% 11.24%+1.17 +5.0 13
2010-09-14 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-137.4 1286 1480 11.24% 24.72% 64.03%-1.17 -5.0 5
2010-09-18 Khazar Lankaran D 0-051.3 1281 1498 17.40% 28.07% 54.53%-0.72 +3.2 6
2010-09-18 @ Mughan D 0-051.3 1498 1281 54.53% 28.07% 17.40%+0.72 -3.2 14
2010-09-18 Neftchi Baku L 0-429.3 1117 1485 8.91% 22.55% 68.55%-1.41 -13.8 4
2010-09-18 @ MOIK Baku W 4-029.3 1485 1117 68.55% 22.55% 8.91%+1.41 +13.8 16
2010-09-18 Turan D 1-153.8 1237 1266 39.27% 30.28% 30.45%+0.14 -0.6 5
2010-09-18 @ Ganja D 1-153.8 1266 1237 30.45% 30.28% 39.27%-0.14 +0.6 3
2010-09-19 Baku D 1-155.3 1282 1412 25.74% 29.90% 44.36%-0.32 +1.4 3
2010-09-19 @ Simurq Zaqatala D 1-155.3 1412 1282 44.36% 29.90% 25.74%+0.32 -1.4 5
2010-09-19 Inter Baku L 0-144.2 1338 1467 25.90% 29.92% 44.18%-0.31 -10.7 4
2010-09-19 @ Gabala W 1-044.2 1467 1338 44.18% 29.92% 25.90%+0.31 +10.7 13
2010-09-19 AZAL D 0-051.0 1401 1392 44.24% 29.92% 25.85%+0.32 -1.5 5
2010-09-19 @ Qarabag D 0-051.0 1392 1401 25.85% 29.92% 44.24%-0.32 +1.5 11
2010-09-22 Ganja W 3-032.1 1399 1237 61.22% 25.89% 12.89%+1.02 +15.8 8
2010-09-22 @ Qarabag L 0-332.1 1237 1399 12.89% 25.89% 61.22%-1.02 -15.8 5
2010-09-25 Neftchi Baku W 1-050.6 1494 1499 42.52% 30.08% 27.40%+0.26 +11.2 17
2010-09-25 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-150.6 1499 1494 27.40% 30.08% 42.52%-0.26 -11.2 16
2010-09-25 Qarabag W 2-153.5 1328 1415 31.05% 30.31% 38.64%-0.12 +13.5 7
2010-09-25 @ Gabala L 1-253.5 1415 1328 38.64% 30.31% 31.05%+0.12 -13.5 8
2010-09-25 Simurq Zaqatala W 1-041.4 1284 1283 43.27% 30.01% 26.72%+0.28 +11.0 9
2010-09-25 @ Mughan L 0-141.4 1283 1284 26.72% 30.01% 43.27%-0.28 -11.0 3
2010-09-26 MOIK Baku W 2-029.8 1394 1103 71.87% 20.73% 7.40%+1.61 +5.9 14
2010-09-26 @ AZAL L 0-229.8 1103 1394 7.40% 20.73% 71.87%-1.61 -5.9 4
2010-09-26 Inter Baku W 1-051.2 1221 1478 14.49% 26.81% 58.70%-0.90 +20.1 8
2010-09-26 @ Ganja L 0-151.2 1478 1221 58.70% 26.81% 14.49%+0.90 -20.1 13
2010-09-27 Turan W 3-140.7 1411 1267 59.46% 26.55% 13.99%+0.94 +10.2 8
2010-09-27 @ Baku L 1-340.7 1267 1411 13.99% 26.55% 59.46%-0.94 -10.2 3
2010-10-01 Gabala L 0-241.1 1272 1341 33.60% 30.38% 36.03%-0.04 -24.5 3
2010-10-01 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 2-041.1 1341 1272 36.03% 30.38% 33.60%+0.04 +24.5 10
2010-10-01 Mughan W 1-038.0 1458 1295 61.17% 25.91% 12.92%+1.02 +5.8 16
2010-10-01 @ Inter Baku L 0-138.0 1295 1458 12.92% 25.91% 61.17%-1.02 -5.8 9
2010-10-01 AZAL W 1-043.6 1488 1400 53.70% 28.28% 18.02%+0.68 +7.9 19
2010-10-01 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-143.6 1400 1488 18.02% 28.28% 53.70%-0.68 -8.0 14
2010-10-02 Baku D 1-161.2 1506 1421 53.33% 28.37% 18.30%+0.66 -2.7 18
2010-10-02 @ Khazar Lankaran D 1-161.2 1421 1506 18.30% 28.37% 53.33%-0.66 +2.7 9
2010-10-02 Ganja L 0-535.4 1097 1241 24.17% 29.69% 46.14%-0.38 -44.8 4
2010-10-02 @ MOIK Baku W 5-035.4 1241 1097 46.14% 29.69% 24.17%+0.38 +44.8 11
2010-10-02 Qarabag L 0-141.2 1256 1402 24.02% 29.67% 46.31%-0.39 -10.1 3
2010-10-02 @ Turan W 1-041.2 1402 1256 46.31% 29.67% 24.02%+0.39 +10.1 11
2010-10-16 MOIK Baku W 2-137.4 1424 1052 77.43% 17.34% 5.23%+1.98 +1.9 12
2010-10-16 @ Baku L 1-237.4 1052 1424 5.23% 17.34% 77.43%-1.98 -1.9 4
2010-10-16 Mughan W 2-036.6 1366 1290 52.39% 28.59% 19.02%+0.63 +15.7 13
2010-10-16 @ Gabala L 0-236.6 1290 1366 19.02% 28.59% 52.39%-0.63 -15.7 9
2010-10-16 Inter Baku W 5-044.2 1392 1463 33.21% 30.37% 36.42%-0.05 +60.5 17
2010-10-16 @ AZAL L 0-544.2 1463 1392 36.42% 30.37% 33.21%+0.05 -60.5 16
2010-10-17 Khazar Lankaran W 4-151.9 1286 1503 17.34% 28.05% 54.62%-0.72 +43.7 14
2010-10-17 @ Ganja L 1-451.9 1503 1286 54.62% 28.05% 17.34%+0.72 -43.7 18
2010-10-17 Neftchi Baku D 2-262.8 1246 1496 14.98% 27.06% 57.96%-0.87 +2.5 4
2010-10-17 @ Turan D 2-262.8 1496 1246 57.96% 27.06% 14.98%+0.87 -2.5 20
2010-10-17 Simurq Zaqatala W 3-247.8 1412 1248 61.31% 25.86% 12.83%+1.03 +5.1 14
2010-10-17 @ Qarabag L 2-347.8 1248 1412 12.83% 25.86% 61.31%-1.03 -5.1 3
2010-10-20 Baku W 2-043.0 1417 1426 41.99% 30.12% 27.89%+0.24 +21.4 17
2010-10-20 @ Qarabag L 0-243.0 1426 1417 27.89% 30.12% 41.99%-0.24 -21.4 12
2010-10-23 Ganja W 6-238.4 1493 1329 61.31% 25.86% 12.83%+1.03 +14.5 23
2010-10-23 @ Neftchi Baku L 2-638.4 1329 1493 12.83% 25.86% 61.31%-1.03 -14.5 14
2010-10-23 AZAL D 0-051.8 1381 1452 33.29% 30.37% 36.33%-0.05 +0.2 14
2010-10-23 @ Gabala D 0-051.8 1452 1381 36.33% 30.37% 33.29%+0.05 -0.2 18
2010-10-23 Turan W 2-033.2 1459 1249 65.45% 24.08% 10.47%+1.24 +8.7 21
2010-10-23 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-233.2 1249 1459 10.47% 24.08% 65.45%-1.24 -8.7 4
2010-10-24 Baku W 1-044.6 1403 1404 42.97% 30.04% 26.99%+0.27 +11.0 19
2010-10-24 @ Inter Baku L 0-144.6 1404 1403 26.99% 30.04% 42.97%-0.27 -11.1 12
2010-10-24 Qarabag D 0-049.8 1274 1438 22.04% 29.32% 48.64%-0.48 +2.2 10
2010-10-24 @ Mughan D 0-049.8 1438 1274 48.64% 29.32% 22.04%+0.48 -2.2 18
2010-10-24 Simurq Zaqatala L 0-235.4 1050 1243 19.38% 28.70% 51.93%-0.61 -16.0 4
2010-10-24 @ MOIK Baku W 2-035.4 1243 1050 51.93% 28.70% 19.38%+0.61 +16.0 6
2010-10-30 Khazar Lankaran L 0-150.9 1436 1468 38.84% 30.30% 30.86%+0.13 -14.4 18
2010-10-30 @ Qarabag W 1-050.9 1468 1436 30.86% 30.30% 38.84%-0.13 +14.4 24
2010-10-30 MOIK Baku W 2-031.4 1240 1034 65.05% 24.26% 10.68%+1.22 +8.9 7
2010-10-30 @ Turan L 0-231.4 1034 1240 10.68% 24.26% 65.05%-1.22 -8.9 4
2010-10-30 Mughan W 2-034.4 1452 1276 62.43% 25.41% 12.16%+1.08 +10.2 21
2010-10-30 @ AZAL L 0-234.4 1276 1452 12.16% 25.41% 62.43%-1.08 -10.2 10
2010-10-31 Gabala D 0-049.2 1315 1382 33.88% 30.38% 35.74%-0.03 +0.1 15
2010-10-31 @ Ganja D 0-049.2 1382 1315 35.74% 30.38% 33.88%+0.03 -0.1 15
2010-10-31 Neftchi Baku L 0-244.6 1393 1508 27.57% 30.09% 42.34%-0.25 -21.2 12
2010-10-31 @ Baku W 2-044.6 1508 1393 42.34% 30.09% 27.57%+0.25 +21.2 26
2010-10-31 Inter Baku L 0-141.0 1259 1414 22.97% 29.50% 47.53%-0.44 -9.8 6
2010-10-31 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 1-041.0 1414 1259 47.53% 29.50% 22.97%+0.44 +9.8 22
2010-11-05 MOIK Baku W 3-025.9 1422 1025 78.99% 16.33% 4.68%+2.09 +4.9 21
2010-11-05 @ Qarabag L 0-325.9 1025 1422 4.68% 16.33% 78.99%-2.09 -4.9 4
2010-11-06 Baku L 1-348.3 1315 1372 35.29% 30.38% 34.33%+0.02 -21.9 15
2010-11-06 @ Ganja W 3-148.3 1372 1315 34.33% 30.38% 35.29%-0.02 +21.9 15
2010-11-06 Khazar Lankaran W 1-050.2 1382 1482 29.31% 30.22% 40.47%-0.19 +14.8 18
2010-11-06 @ Gabala L 0-150.2 1482 1382 40.47% 30.22% 29.31%+0.19 -14.8 24
2010-11-06 Inter Baku D 1-162.3 1529 1424 55.53% 27.80% 16.67%+0.76 -3.1 27
2010-11-06 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-162.3 1424 1529 16.67% 27.80% 55.53%-0.76 +3.0 23
2010-11-06 AZAL L 0-139.5 1249 1462 17.64% 28.15% 54.21%-0.70 -7.8 6
2010-11-06 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 1-039.5 1462 1249 54.21% 28.15% 17.64%+0.70 +7.8 24
2010-11-06 Turan D 0-048.1 1266 1249 45.33% 29.79% 24.87%+0.35 -1.7 11
2010-11-06 @ Mughan D 0-048.1 1249 1266 24.87% 29.79% 45.33%-0.35 +1.7 8
2010-11-12 Ganja W 2-149.7 1251 1293 37.35% 30.35% 32.30%+0.08 +11.9 11
2010-11-12 @ Turan L 1-249.7 1293 1251 32.30% 30.35% 37.35%-0.08 -11.9 15
2010-11-12 AZAL D 1-157.1 1020 1470 6.29% 19.12% 74.60%-1.79 +5.5 5
2010-11-12 @ MOIK Baku D 1-157.1 1470 1020 74.60% 19.12% 6.29%+1.79 -5.5 25
2010-11-13 Gabala D 0-051.8 1427 1396 47.02% 29.57% 23.41%+0.42 -2.0 24
2010-11-13 @ Inter Baku D 0-051.8 1396 1427 23.41% 29.57% 47.02%-0.42 +2.0 19
2010-11-13 Neftchi Baku L 0-334.9 1264 1526 14.19% 26.66% 59.15%-0.92 -17.4 11
2010-11-13 @ Mughan W 3-034.9 1526 1264 59.15% 26.66% 14.19%+0.92 +17.4 30
2010-11-13 Qarabag W 2-043.4 1394 1427 38.72% 30.31% 30.97%+0.13 +23.1 18
2010-11-13 @ Baku L 0-243.4 1427 1394 30.97% 30.31% 38.72%-0.13 -23.1 21
2010-11-13 Simurq Zaqatala W 1-035.6 1467 1241 66.77% 23.45% 9.78%+1.31 +4.3 27
2010-11-13 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-135.6 1241 1467 9.78% 23.45% 66.77%-1.31 -4.3 6
2010-11-20 Baku L 0-428.1 1026 1417 8.09% 21.61% 70.30%-1.52 -12.3 5
2010-11-20 @ MOIK Baku W 4-028.1 1417 1026 70.30% 21.61% 8.09%+1.52 +12.3 21
2010-11-20 Ganja D 0-047.9 1237 1281 37.10% 30.36% 32.54%+0.07 -0.3 7
2010-11-20 @ Simurq Zaqatala D 0-047.9 1281 1237 32.54% 30.36% 37.10%-0.07 +0.4 16
2010-11-20 Turan W 3-032.7 1425 1263 61.17% 25.91% 12.91%+1.02 +15.8 27
2010-11-20 @ Inter Baku L 0-332.7 1263 1425 12.91% 25.91% 61.17%-1.02 -15.8 11
2010-11-21 Gabala D 0-056.4 1543 1398 59.53% 26.52% 13.95%+0.94 -4.1 31
2010-11-21 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-056.4 1398 1543 13.95% 26.52% 59.53%-0.94 +4.1 20
2010-11-21 Mughan W 2-033.0 1472 1247 66.66% 23.50% 9.84%+1.31 +8.1 30
2010-11-21 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-233.0 1247 1472 9.84% 23.50% 66.66%-1.31 -8.1 11
2010-11-21 Qarabag W 2-041.1 1465 1403 50.69% 28.95% 20.36%+0.56 +16.6 28
2010-11-21 @ AZAL L 0-241.1 1403 1465 20.36% 28.95% 50.69%-0.56 -16.7 21
2010-11-27 Khazar Lankaran D 1-160.0 1429 1480 36.21% 30.37% 33.41%+0.05 -0.2 22
2010-11-27 @ Baku D 1-160.0 1480 1429 33.41% 30.37% 36.21%-0.05 +0.2 31
2010-11-27 MOIK Baku W 1-032.7 1282 1014 70.11% 21.71% 8.18%+1.50 +3.5 19
2010-11-27 @ Ganja L 0-132.7 1014 1282 8.18% 21.71% 70.11%-1.50 -3.5 5
2010-11-27 Simurq Zaqatala W 4-031.7 1402 1237 61.49% 25.79% 12.72%+1.04 +20.3 23
2010-11-27 @ Gabala L 0-431.7 1237 1402 12.72% 25.79% 61.49%-1.04 -20.4 7
2010-11-28 Neftchi Baku L 0-146.8 1387 1539 23.27% 29.55% 47.18%-0.42 -9.8 21
2010-11-28 @ Qarabag W 1-046.8 1539 1387 47.18% 29.55% 23.27%+0.42 +9.8 34
2010-11-28 Inter Baku W 1-049.7 1239 1441 18.57% 28.46% 52.97%-0.65 +18.4 14
2010-11-28 @ Mughan L 0-149.7 1441 1239 52.97% 28.46% 18.57%+0.65 -18.4 27
2010-11-28 AZAL L 1-245.6 1247 1481 16.02% 27.53% 56.45%-0.80 -6.7 11
2010-11-28 @ Turan W 2-145.6 1481 1247 56.45% 27.53% 16.02%+0.80 +6.7 31
2010-12-04 Gabala L 0-328.0 1010 1423 7.38% 20.69% 71.93%-1.62 -8.5 5
2010-12-04 @ MOIK Baku W 3-028.0 1423 1010 71.93% 20.69% 7.38%+1.62 +8.5 26
2010-12-04 Khazar Lankaran L 1-245.3 1240 1480 15.63% 27.36% 57.00%-0.82 -6.6 11
2010-12-04 @ Turan W 2-145.3 1480 1240 57.00% 27.36% 15.63%+0.82 +6.6 34
2010-12-04 Neftchi Baku D 0-058.8 1488 1549 34.71% 30.38% 34.91%+0.00 +0.0 32
2010-12-04 @ AZAL D 0-058.8 1549 1488 34.91% 30.38% 34.71%+0.00 -0.0 35
2010-12-04 Inter Baku W 1-046.2 1377 1422 36.96% 30.36% 32.68%+0.07 +12.7 24
2010-12-04 @ Qarabag L 0-146.2 1422 1377 32.68% 30.36% 36.96%-0.07 -12.7 27
2010-12-05 Mughan W 3-035.9 1285 1257 46.70% 29.62% 23.68%+0.40 +27.4 22
2010-12-05 @ Ganja L 0-335.9 1257 1285 23.68% 29.62% 46.70%-0.40 -27.4 14
2010-12-05 Simurq Zaqatala L 0-151.9 1429 1216 65.66% 23.98% 10.36%+1.25 -22.0 22
2010-12-05 @ Baku W 1-051.9 1216 1429 10.36% 23.98% 65.66%-1.25 +22.0 10
2010-12-11 Baku L 0-255.0 1549 1407 59.24% 26.63% 14.14%+0.93 -38.2 35
2010-12-11 @ Neftchi Baku W 2-055.0 1407 1549 14.14% 26.63% 59.24%-0.93 +38.2 25
2010-12-11 Ganja W 1-038.6 1487 1312 62.26% 25.48% 12.26%+1.08 +5.5 37
2010-12-11 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-138.6 1312 1487 12.26% 25.48% 62.26%-1.08 -5.5 22
2010-12-11 MOIK Baku W 1-033.6 1230 1002 66.93% 23.37% 9.70%+1.32 +4.2 17
2010-12-11 @ Mughan L 0-133.6 1002 1230 9.70% 23.37% 66.93%-1.32 -4.2 5
2010-12-11 Qarabag L 0-140.7 1238 1390 23.37% 29.57% 47.06%-0.42 -9.9 10
2010-12-11 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 1-040.7 1390 1238 47.06% 29.57% 23.37%+0.42 +9.9 27
2010-12-11 AZAL D 1-159.6 1410 1488 32.25% 30.35% 37.40%-0.08 +0.4 28
2010-12-11 @ Inter Baku D 1-159.6 1488 1410 37.40% 30.35% 32.25%+0.08 -0.4 33
2010-12-11 Turan W 1-035.8 1431 1233 64.37% 24.58% 11.06%+1.18 +4.9 29
2010-12-11 @ Gabala L 0-135.8 1233 1431 11.06% 24.58% 64.37%-1.18 -4.9 11
2010-12-18 Khazar Lankaran L 0-228.0 997 1492 5.17% 17.24% 77.59%-1.99 -3.8 5
2010-12-18 @ MOIK Baku W 2-028.0 1492 997 77.59% 17.24% 5.17%+1.99 +3.8 40
2010-12-18 Mughan W 2-033.6 1400 1234 61.47% 25.79% 12.73%+1.04 +10.7 30
2010-12-18 @ Qarabag L 0-233.6 1234 1400 12.73% 25.79% 61.47%-1.04 -10.7 17
2010-12-18 Neftchi Baku L 0-437.0 1307 1511 18.41% 28.41% 53.18%-0.66 -29.0 22
2010-12-18 @ Ganja W 4-037.0 1511 1307 53.18% 28.41% 18.41%+0.66 +29.0 38
2010-12-18 Inter Baku L 1-258.4 1445 1410 47.63% 29.48% 22.88%+0.44 -15.9 25
2010-12-18 @ Baku W 2-158.4 1410 1445 22.88% 29.48% 47.63%-0.44 +15.9 31
2010-12-19 Gabala D 2-266.9 1488 1436 49.57% 29.16% 21.27%+0.51 -1.6 34
2010-12-19 @ AZAL D 2-266.9 1436 1488 21.27% 29.16% 49.57%-0.51 +1.6 30
2010-12-19 Simurq Zaqatala D 1-153.7 1228 1228 43.15% 30.02% 26.83%+0.28 -1.2 12
2010-12-19 @ Turan D 1-153.7 1228 1228 26.83% 30.02% 43.15%-0.28 +1.2 11
2010-12-23 Baku L 0-151.3 1438 1429 44.22% 29.92% 25.86%+0.31 -15.9 30
2010-12-23 @ Gabala W 1-051.3 1429 1438 25.86% 29.92% 44.22%-0.31 +15.9 28
2010-12-23 Ganja W 1-037.7 1426 1278 59.80% 26.43% 13.77%+0.95 +6.2 34
2010-12-23 @ Inter Baku L 0-137.7 1278 1426 13.77% 26.43% 59.80%-0.95 -6.2 22
2010-12-23 MOIK Baku D 1-155.6 1230 994 67.58% 23.04% 9.38%+1.36 -4.8 12
2010-12-23 @ Simurq Zaqatala D 1-155.6 994 1230 9.38% 23.04% 67.58%-1.36 +4.8 6
2010-12-23 Qarabag L 1-261.4 1496 1410 53.43% 28.35% 18.22%+0.67 -17.5 40
2010-12-23 @ Khazar Lankaran W 2-161.4 1410 1496 18.22% 28.35% 53.43%-0.67 +17.5 33
2010-12-23 AZAL W 3-154.7 1223 1486 14.12% 26.62% 59.26%-0.93 +33.1 20
2010-12-23 @ Mughan L 1-354.7 1486 1223 59.26% 26.62% 14.12%+0.93 -33.1 34
2010-12-23 Turan W 2-031.8 1540 1227 73.42% 19.82% 6.75%+1.71 +5.2 41
2010-12-23 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-231.8 1227 1540 6.75% 19.82% 73.42%-1.71 -5.2 12
2011-02-12 Ganja D 0-051.2 1453 1272 62.90% 25.21% 11.89%+1.11 -4.6 35
2011-02-12 @ AZAL D 0-051.2 1272 1453 11.89% 25.21% 62.90%-1.11 +4.6 23
2011-02-12 Mughan D 1-156.9 1445 1256 63.58% 24.92% 11.50%+1.14 -4.2 29
2011-02-12 @ Baku D 1-156.9 1256 1445 11.50% 24.92% 63.58%-1.14 +4.2 21
2011-02-12 Turan L 0-234.3 998 1222 16.83% 27.86% 55.31%-0.75 -14.1 6
2011-02-12 @ MOIK Baku W 2-034.3 1222 998 55.31% 27.86% 16.83%+0.75 +14.1 15
2011-02-13 Gabala W 3-041.0 1428 1422 43.92% 29.95% 26.13%+0.30 +29.5 36
2011-02-13 @ Qarabag L 0-341.0 1422 1428 26.13% 29.95% 43.92%-0.30 -29.5 30
2011-02-13 Khazar Lankaran D 0-058.7 1545 1478 51.32% 28.82% 19.85%+0.58 -2.7 42
2011-02-13 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-058.7 1478 1545 19.85% 28.82% 51.32%-0.58 +2.7 41
2011-02-13 Simurq Zaqatala W 2-032.7 1432 1225 65.17% 24.21% 10.62%+1.23 +8.9 37
2011-02-13 @ Inter Baku L 0-232.7 1225 1432 10.62% 24.21% 65.17%-1.23 -8.9 12
2011-02-19 Baku L 0-139.3 1236 1441 18.32% 28.38% 53.30%-0.66 -8.1 15
2011-02-19 @ Turan W 1-039.3 1441 1236 53.30% 28.38% 18.32%+0.66 +8.1 32
2011-02-19 Neftchi Baku L 0-332.5 1216 1542 10.68% 24.26% 65.05%-1.22 -13.0 12
2011-02-19 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 3-032.5 1542 1216 65.05% 24.26% 10.68%+1.22 +13.0 45
2011-02-19 Inter Baku L 0-426.6 984 1441 6.11% 18.83% 75.06%-1.82 -8.8 6
2011-02-19 @ MOIK Baku W 4-026.6 1441 984 75.06% 18.83% 6.11%+1.82 +8.8 40
2011-02-20 Gabala W 1-047.4 1261 1392 25.55% 29.88% 44.57%-0.33 +16.0 24
2011-02-20 @ Mughan L 0-147.4 1392 1261 44.57% 29.88% 25.55%+0.33 -16.0 30
2011-02-20 Qarabag L 0-140.9 1276 1457 20.43% 28.97% 50.60%-0.55 -8.9 23
2011-02-20 @ Ganja W 1-040.9 1457 1276 50.60% 28.97% 20.43%+0.55 +8.9 39
2011-02-20 AZAL W 2-153.5 1481 1448 47.29% 29.53% 23.17%+0.43 +9.3 44
2011-02-20 @ Khazar Lankaran L 1-253.5 1448 1481 23.17% 29.53% 47.29%-0.43 -9.3 35
2011-02-25 Baku D 0-053.5 1439 1449 41.81% 30.13% 28.06%+0.23 -1.1 36
2011-02-25 @ AZAL D 0-053.5 1449 1439 28.06% 30.13% 41.81%-0.23 +1.1 33
2011-02-25 MOIK Baku W 1-027.8 1555 976 88.16% 9.86% 1.98%+2.94 +0.7 48
2011-02-25 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-127.8 976 1555 1.98% 9.86% 88.16%-2.94 -0.6 6
2011-02-25 Turan W 5-133.3 1466 1228 67.76% 22.95% 9.29%+1.37 +12.0 42
2011-02-25 @ Qarabag L 1-533.3 1228 1466 9.29% 22.95% 67.76%-1.37 -12.1 15
2011-02-27 Ganja D 0-049.5 1376 1268 55.91% 27.69% 16.40%+0.78 -3.5 31
2011-02-27 @ Gabala D 0-049.5 1268 1376 16.40% 27.69% 55.91%-0.78 +3.5 24
2011-02-27 Khazar Lankaran L 1-355.0 1450 1490 37.60% 30.35% 32.05%+0.09 -22.9 40
2011-02-27 @ Inter Baku W 3-155.0 1490 1450 32.05% 30.35% 37.60%-0.09 +22.9 47
2011-02-27 Mughan L 0-143.0 1203 1277 32.93% 30.37% 36.70%-0.06 -12.8 12
2011-02-27 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 1-043.0 1277 1203 36.70% 30.37% 32.93%+0.06 +12.8 27

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2011-03-12 Mughan L 1-345.2 1190 1289 29.50% 30.23% 40.26%-0.18 -19.3 0
2011-03-12 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 3-145.2 1289 1190 40.26% 30.23% 29.50%+0.18 +19.3 3
2011-03-12 Qarabag L 0-247.4 1427 1478 36.05% 30.38% 33.57%+0.04 -25.7 0
2011-03-12 @ Inter Baku W 2-047.4 1478 1427 33.57% 30.38% 36.05%-0.04 +25.7 3
2011-03-13 Gabala D 1-156.2 975 1373 7.85% 21.31% 70.83%-1.55 +5.1 1
2011-03-13 @ MOIK Baku D 1-156.2 1373 975 70.83% 21.31% 7.85%+1.55 -5.1 1
2011-03-13 Ganja W 1-043.4 1216 1271 35.57% 30.38% 34.05%+0.02 +13.1 3
2011-03-13 @ Turan L 0-143.4 1271 1216 34.05% 30.38% 35.57%-0.02 -13.1 0
2011-03-13 Khazar Lankaran W 1-052.0 1438 1513 32.70% 30.36% 36.94%-0.07 +13.9 3
2011-03-13 @ AZAL L 0-152.0 1513 1438 36.94% 30.36% 32.70%+0.07 -13.9 0
2011-03-13 Neftchi Baku L 0-151.5 1450 1556 28.67% 30.18% 41.15%-0.21 -11.6 0
2011-03-13 @ Baku W 1-051.5 1556 1450 41.15% 30.18% 28.67%+0.21 +11.6 3
2011-03-17 Gabala L 1-251.5 1309 1368 35.00% 30.38% 34.62%+0.01 -12.6 3
2011-03-17 @ Mughan W 2-151.5 1368 1309 34.62% 30.38% 35.00%-0.01 +12.6 4
2011-03-18 Baku D 1-157.9 1401 1439 38.02% 30.33% 31.65%+0.10 -0.4 1
2011-03-18 @ Inter Baku D 1-157.9 1439 1401 31.65% 30.33% 38.02%-0.10 +0.4 1
2011-03-18 MOIK Baku W 1-033.1 1229 980 68.64% 22.50% 8.86%+1.42 +3.8 6
2011-03-18 @ Turan L 0-133.1 980 1229 8.86% 22.50% 68.64%-1.42 -3.8 1
2011-03-18 Neftchi Baku D 1-165.8 1499 1568 33.69% 30.38% 35.93%-0.04 +0.2 1
2011-03-18 @ Khazar Lankaran D 1-165.8 1568 1499 35.93% 30.38% 33.69%+0.04 -0.2 4
2011-03-18 AZAL W 1-047.1 1504 1452 49.64% 29.15% 21.21%+0.52 +9.1 6
2011-03-18 @ Qarabag L 0-147.1 1452 1504 21.21% 29.15% 49.64%-0.52 -9.1 3
2011-03-18 Simurq Zaqatala L 0-148.5 1258 1171 53.59% 28.31% 18.10%+0.68 -18.6 0
2011-03-18 @ Ganja W 1-048.5 1171 1258 18.10% 28.31% 53.59%-0.68 +18.6 3
2011-04-02 Ganja D 1-155.5 1380 1239 59.14% 26.66% 14.20%+0.92 -3.6 5
2011-04-02 @ Gabala D 1-155.5 1239 1380 14.20% 26.66% 59.14%-0.92 +3.6 1
2011-04-02 Khazar Lankaran D 0-055.1 1439 1500 34.79% 30.38% 34.82%+0.00 +0.0 2
2011-04-02 @ Baku D 0-055.1 1500 1439 34.82% 30.38% 34.79%+0.00 +0.0 2
2011-04-02 Mughan D 0-049.2 976 1296 10.99% 24.52% 64.50%-1.19 +4.9 2
2011-04-02 @ MOIK Baku D 0-049.2 1296 976 64.50% 24.52% 10.99%+1.19 -4.9 4
2011-04-03 Qarabag W 2-048.8 1567 1513 49.88% 29.11% 21.01%+0.53 +17.1 7
2011-04-03 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-248.8 1513 1567 21.01% 29.11% 49.88%-0.53 -17.1 6
2011-04-03 Inter Baku W 1-043.8 1443 1401 48.45% 29.35% 22.19%+0.47 +9.5 6
2011-04-03 @ AZAL L 0-143.8 1401 1443 22.19% 29.35% 48.45%-0.47 -9.5 1
2011-04-03 Turan L 0-144.2 1190 1233 37.22% 30.36% 32.42%+0.08 -13.9 3
2011-04-03 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 1-044.2 1233 1190 32.42% 30.36% 37.22%-0.08 +13.9 9
2011-04-09 Gabala L 0-238.7 1247 1377 25.76% 29.91% 44.33%-0.32 -20.1 9
2011-04-09 @ Turan W 2-038.7 1377 1247 44.33% 29.91% 25.76%+0.32 +20.1 8
2011-04-09 MOIK Baku L 1-256.9 1176 981 64.09% 24.70% 11.21%+1.17 -20.4 3
2011-04-09 @ Simurq Zaqatala W 2-156.9 981 1176 11.21% 24.70% 64.09%-1.17 +20.4 5
2011-04-09 Neftchi Baku D 1-162.9 1391 1584 19.31% 28.68% 52.01%-0.61 +2.5 2
2011-04-09 @ Inter Baku D 1-162.9 1584 1391 52.01% 28.68% 19.31%+0.61 -2.5 8
2011-04-10 Baku W 1-046.3 1452 1439 44.84% 29.85% 25.31%+0.34 +10.5 9
2011-04-10 @ AZAL L 0-146.3 1439 1452 25.31% 29.85% 44.84%-0.34 -10.5 2
2011-04-10 Khazar Lankaran D 0-057.3 1496 1500 42.68% 30.06% 27.26%+0.26 -1.2 7
2011-04-10 @ Qarabag D 0-057.3 1500 1496 27.26% 30.06% 42.68%-0.26 +1.2 3
2011-04-10 Mughan D 1-153.9 1243 1291 36.52% 30.37% 33.11%+0.05 -0.2 2
2011-04-10 @ Ganja D 1-153.9 1291 1243 33.11% 30.37% 36.52%-0.05 +0.2 5
2011-04-16 Qarabag D 0-054.6 1429 1495 33.97% 30.38% 35.65%-0.03 +0.1 3
2011-04-16 @ Baku D 0-054.6 1495 1429 35.65% 30.38% 33.97%+0.03 -0.1 8
2011-04-16 Inter Baku D 1-160.3 1501 1394 55.75% 27.74% 16.52%+0.77 -3.1 4
2011-04-16 @ Khazar Lankaran D 1-160.3 1394 1501 16.52% 27.74% 55.75%-0.77 +3.1 3
2011-04-16 Turan W 2-145.5 1291 1227 51.10% 28.87% 20.03%+0.57 +8.2 8
2011-04-16 @ Mughan L 1-245.5 1227 1291 20.03% 28.87% 51.10%-0.57 -8.2 9
2011-04-17 Ganja L 0-233.8 1001 1243 15.55% 27.32% 57.13%-0.83 -13.1 5
2011-04-17 @ MOIK Baku W 2-033.8 1243 1001 57.13% 27.32% 15.55%+0.83 +13.1 5
2011-04-17 AZAL W 2-154.8 1582 1463 56.98% 27.37% 15.65%+0.82 +6.6 11
2011-04-17 @ Neftchi Baku L 1-254.8 1463 1582 15.65% 27.37% 56.98%-0.82 -6.6 9
2011-04-17 Simurq Zaqatala W 3-029.5 1397 1155 68.03% 22.81% 9.16%+1.38 +10.9 11
2011-04-17 @ Gabala L 0-329.5 1155 1397 9.16% 22.81% 68.03%-1.38 -10.9 3
2011-04-23 Baku W 2-043.2 1588 1429 60.94% 26.00% 13.06%+1.01 +11.0 14
2011-04-23 @ Neftchi Baku L 0-243.2 1429 1588 13.06% 26.00% 60.94%-1.01 -11.0 3
2011-04-23 AZAL W 3-043.0 1498 1456 48.37% 29.37% 22.26%+0.47 +26.0 7
2011-04-23 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-343.0 1456 1498 22.26% 29.37% 48.37%-0.47 -26.0 9
2011-04-23 Simurq Zaqatala W 3-031.4 1300 1144 60.52% 26.16% 13.32%+0.99 +16.3 11
2011-04-23 @ Mughan L 0-331.4 1144 1300 13.32% 26.16% 60.52%-0.99 -16.3 3
2011-04-24 MOIK Baku D 0-052.1 1408 988 80.37% 15.41% 4.22%+2.20 -6.8 12
2011-04-24 @ Gabala D 0-052.1 988 1408 4.22% 15.41% 80.37%-2.20 +6.8 6
2011-04-24 Inter Baku W 1-043.4 1495 1397 54.78% 28.00% 17.22%+0.73 +7.6 11
2011-04-24 @ Qarabag L 0-143.4 1397 1495 17.22% 28.00% 54.78%-0.73 -7.6 3
2011-04-24 Turan W 1-039.7 1256 1219 47.85% 29.45% 22.70%+0.45 +9.7 8
2011-04-24 @ Ganja L 0-139.7 1219 1256 22.70% 29.45% 47.85%-0.45 -9.7 9
2011-04-30 Gabala D 0-049.2 1128 1401 13.50% 26.27% 60.23%-0.97 +4.2 4
2011-04-30 @ Simurq Zaqatala D 0-049.2 1401 1128 60.23% 26.27% 13.50%+0.97 -4.2 13
2011-04-30 Khazar Lankaran D 1-160.3 1389 1524 25.20% 29.84% 44.96%-0.34 +1.5 4
2011-04-30 @ Inter Baku D 1-160.3 1524 1389 44.96% 29.84% 25.20%+0.34 -1.4 8
2011-04-30 MOIK Baku W 1-032.6 1265 995 70.30% 21.61% 8.09%+1.52 +3.4 11
2011-04-30 @ Ganja L 0-132.6 995 1265 8.09% 21.61% 70.30%-1.52 -3.5 6
2011-05-01 Baku D 2-267.0 1502 1418 53.33% 28.37% 18.30%+0.66 -2.0 12
2011-05-01 @ Qarabag D 2-267.0 1418 1502 18.30% 28.37% 53.33%-0.66 +2.0 4
2011-05-01 Mughan L 0-141.8 1209 1316 28.49% 30.17% 41.34%-0.21 -11.5 9
2011-05-01 @ Turan W 1-041.8 1316 1209 41.34% 30.17% 28.49%+0.21 +11.5 14
2011-05-01 Neftchi Baku L 1-353.2 1430 1600 21.54% 29.22% 49.24%-0.50 -15.1 9
2011-05-01 @ AZAL W 3-153.2 1600 1430 49.24% 29.22% 21.54%+0.50 +15.1 17
2011-05-07 Qarabag D 1-164.3 1522 1500 45.97% 29.71% 24.32%+0.38 -1.6 9
2011-05-07 @ Khazar Lankaran D 1-164.3 1500 1522 24.32% 29.71% 45.97%-0.38 +1.6 13
2011-05-07 AZAL W 2-151.6 1420 1415 43.75% 29.96% 26.28%+0.30 +10.2 7
2011-05-07 @ Baku L 1-251.6 1415 1420 26.28% 29.96% 43.75%-0.30 -10.2 9
2011-05-07 Simurq Zaqatala W 1-046.3 992 1132 24.54% 29.75% 45.71%-0.37 +16.3 9
2011-05-07 @ MOIK Baku L 0-146.3 1132 992 45.71% 29.75% 24.54%+0.37 -16.3 4
2011-05-08 Ganja W 2-146.1 1328 1269 50.40% 29.01% 20.59%+0.55 +8.4 17
2011-05-08 @ Mughan L 1-246.1 1269 1328 20.59% 29.01% 50.40%-0.55 -8.4 11
2011-05-08 Inter Baku D 0-059.6 1615 1390 66.61% 23.52% 9.87%+1.30 -5.2 18
2011-05-08 @ Neftchi Baku D 0-059.6 1390 1615 9.87% 23.52% 66.61%-1.30 +5.2 5
2011-05-08 Turan W 1-035.2 1397 1197 64.50% 24.51% 10.98%+1.19 +4.9 16
2011-05-08 @ Gabala L 0-135.2 1197 1397 10.98% 24.51% 64.50%-1.19 -4.9 9
2011-05-12 Gabala D 0-049.0 1260 1402 24.48% 29.74% 45.78%-0.37 +1.8 12
2011-05-12 @ Ganja D 0-049.0 1402 1260 45.78% 29.74% 24.48%+0.37 -1.8 17
2011-05-12 MOIK Baku W 1-031.4 1336 1008 74.52% 19.16% 6.32%+1.78 +2.6 20
2011-05-12 @ Mughan L 0-131.4 1008 1336 6.32% 19.16% 74.52%-1.78 -2.6 9
2011-05-12 Simurq Zaqatala W 2-144.6 1193 1116 52.44% 28.58% 18.98%+0.63 +7.8 12
2011-05-12 @ Turan L 1-244.6 1116 1193 18.98% 28.58% 52.44%-0.63 -7.8 4
2011-05-13 Baku W 2-042.8 1521 1430 54.00% 28.21% 17.79%+0.69 +14.8 12
2011-05-13 @ Khazar Lankaran L 0-242.8 1430 1521 17.79% 28.21% 54.00%-0.69 -14.8 7
2011-05-13 Neftchi Baku W 3-054.7 1502 1609 28.43% 30.16% 41.41%-0.22 +41.3 16
2011-05-13 @ Qarabag L 0-354.7 1609 1502 41.41% 30.16% 28.43%+0.22 -41.3 18
2011-05-13 AZAL D 0-051.1 1396 1405 41.92% 30.12% 27.95%+0.23 -1.1 6
2011-05-13 @ Inter Baku D 0-051.1 1405 1396 27.95% 30.12% 41.92%-0.23 +1.1 10
2011-05-18 Khazar Lankaran D 1-167.3 1568 1535 47.29% 29.53% 23.17%+0.43 -1.8 19
2011-05-18 @ Neftchi Baku D 1-167.3 1535 1568 23.17% 29.53% 47.29%-0.43 +1.8 13
2011-05-18 Qarabag W 3-157.5 1406 1543 24.91% 29.80% 45.29%-0.35 +26.4 13
2011-05-18 @ AZAL L 1-357.5 1543 1406 45.29% 29.80% 24.91%+0.35 -26.4 16
2011-05-18 Inter Baku L 0-150.2 1415 1395 45.79% 29.74% 24.47%+0.37 -16.3 7
2011-05-18 @ Baku W 1-050.2 1395 1415 24.47% 29.74% 45.79%-0.37 +16.3 9
2011-05-19 Ganja W 4-359.7 1108 1262 23.08% 29.52% 47.40%-0.43 +14.7 7
2011-05-19 @ Simurq Zaqatala L 3-459.7 1262 1108 47.40% 29.52% 23.08%+0.43 -14.7 12
2011-05-19 Mughan W 2-147.5 1400 1338 50.71% 28.95% 20.34%+0.56 +8.3 20
2011-05-19 @ Gabala L 1-247.5 1338 1400 20.34% 28.95% 50.71%-0.56 -8.3 20
2011-05-19 Turan W 4-148.0 1005 1200 19.17% 28.64% 52.19%-0.62 +42.0 12
2011-05-19 @ MOIK Baku L 1-448.0 1200 1005 52.19% 28.64% 19.17%+0.62 -42.0 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2010-12-05 10.36% Simurq Zaqatala 1216 1 @ Baku 1429 0
2 2011-04-09 11.21% MOIK Baku 981 2 @ Simurq Zaqatala 1176 1
3 2010-12-23 14.12% @ Mughan 1223 3 AZAL 1486 1
4 2010-12-11 14.14% Baku 1407 2 @ Neftchi Baku 1549 0
5 2010-09-26 14.49% @ Ganja 1221 1 Inter Baku 1478 0
6 2010-10-17 17.34% @ Ganja 1286 4 Khazar Lankaran 1503 1
7 2011-03-18 18.10% Simurq Zaqatala 1171 1 @ Ganja 1258 0
8 2010-12-23 18.22% Qarabag 1410 2 @ Khazar Lankaran 1496 1
9 2010-11-28 18.57% @ Mughan 1239 1 Inter Baku 1441 0
10 2011-05-19 19.17% @ MOIK Baku 1005 4 Turan 1200 1
11 2010-08-07 20.04% AZAL 1376 3 @ Baku 1441 2
12 2010-08-08 20.82% @ MOIK Baku 1109 3 Mughan 1286 2
13 2010-08-28 22.20% Neftchi Baku 1448 2 @ Inter Baku 1490 0
14 2010-12-18 22.88% Inter Baku 1410 2 @ Baku 1445 1
15 2010-08-15 23.05% @ Mughan 1271 1 Baku 1425 0
16 2011-05-19 23.08% @ Simurq Zaqatala 1108 4 Ganja 1262 3
17 2011-05-18 24.47% Inter Baku 1395 1 @ Baku 1415 0
18 2011-05-07 24.54% @ MOIK Baku 992 1 Simurq Zaqatala 1132 0
19 2011-05-18 24.91% @ AZAL 1406 3 Qarabag 1543 1
20 2011-02-20 25.55% @ Mughan 1261 1 Gabala 1392 0
21 2010-12-23 25.86% Baku 1429 1 @ Gabala 1438 0
22 2011-05-13 28.43% @ Qarabag 1502 3 Neftchi Baku 1609 0
23 2010-11-06 29.31% @ Gabala 1382 1 Khazar Lankaran 1482 0
24 2010-08-15 30.50% Neftchi Baku 1394 2 @ Gabala 1365 0
25 2010-10-30 30.86% Khazar Lankaran 1468 1 @ Qarabag 1436 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-10-16 60.53 @ AZAL 5 1392 33.21% Inter Baku 0 1463 36.42% 30.37%
2 2010-10-02 44.77 Ganja 5 1241 46.14% @ MOIK Baku 0 1097 24.17% 29.69%
3 2010-10-17 43.69 @ Ganja 4 1286 17.34% Khazar Lankaran 1 1503 54.62% 28.05%
4 2011-05-19 42.04 @ MOIK Baku 4 1005 19.17% Turan 1 1200 52.19% 28.64%
5 2011-05-13 41.34 @ Qarabag 3 1502 28.43% Neftchi Baku 0 1609 41.41% 30.16%
6 2010-12-11 38.21 Baku 2 1407 14.14% @ Neftchi Baku 0 1549 59.24% 26.63%
7 2010-12-23 33.10 @ Mughan 3 1223 14.12% AZAL 1 1486 59.26% 26.62%
8 2010-08-28 32.25 Neftchi Baku 2 1448 22.20% @ Inter Baku 0 1490 48.44% 29.36%
9 2011-02-13 29.54 @ Qarabag 3 1428 43.92% Gabala 0 1422 26.13% 29.95%
10 2010-12-18 28.96 Neftchi Baku 4 1511 53.18% @ Ganja 0 1307 18.41% 28.41%
11 2010-08-08 27.81 Inter Baku 3 1459 46.13% @ Turan 0 1315 24.17% 29.69%
12 2010-12-05 27.36 @ Ganja 3 1285 46.70% Mughan 0 1257 23.68% 29.62%
13 2010-08-15 27.32 Neftchi Baku 2 1394 30.50% @ Gabala 0 1365 39.21% 30.29%
14 2010-08-21 26.56 @ Neftchi Baku 4 1421 55.46% Simurq Zaqatala 0 1317 16.72% 27.82%
15 2011-05-18 26.45 @ AZAL 3 1406 24.91% Qarabag 1 1543 45.29% 29.80%
16 2011-04-23 26.03 @ Khazar Lankaran 3 1498 48.37% AZAL 0 1456 22.26% 29.37%
17 2011-03-12 25.70 Qarabag 2 1478 33.57% @ Inter Baku 0 1427 36.05% 30.38%
18 2010-10-01 24.46 Gabala 2 1341 36.03% @ Simurq Zaqatala 0 1272 33.60% 30.38%
19 2010-11-13 23.07 @ Baku 2 1394 38.72% Qarabag 0 1427 30.97% 30.31%
20 2011-02-27 22.93 Khazar Lankaran 3 1490 32.05% @ Inter Baku 1 1450 37.60% 30.35%
21 2010-12-05 22.02 Simurq Zaqatala 1 1216 10.36% @ Baku 0 1429 65.66% 23.98%
22 2010-11-06 21.92 Baku 3 1372 34.33% @ Ganja 1 1315 35.29% 30.38%
23 2010-10-20 21.38 @ Qarabag 2 1417 41.99% Baku 0 1426 27.89% 30.12%
24 2010-10-31 21.19 Neftchi Baku 2 1508 42.34% @ Baku 0 1393 27.57% 30.09%
25 2010-08-15 20.64 Khazar Lankaran 2 1460 43.37% @ Simurq Zaqatala 0 1338 26.63% 30.00%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-05-18 67.3 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1568 47.29% Khazar Lankaran 1 1535 23.17% 29.53%
2 2011-05-01 67.0 @ Qarabag 2 1502 53.33% Baku 2 1418 18.30% 28.37%
3 2010-12-19 66.9 @ AZAL 2 1488 49.57% Gabala 2 1436 21.27% 29.16%
4 2011-03-18 65.8 @ Khazar Lankaran 1 1499 33.69% Neftchi Baku 1 1568 35.93% 30.38%
5 2011-05-07 64.3 @ Khazar Lankaran 1 1522 45.97% Qarabag 1 1500 24.32% 29.71%
6 2011-04-09 62.9 @ Inter Baku 1 1391 19.31% Neftchi Baku 1 1584 52.01% 28.68%
7 2010-08-07 62.8 AZAL 3 1376 20.04% @ Baku 2 1441 51.09% 28.87%
8 2010-10-17 62.8 @ Turan 2 1246 14.98% Neftchi Baku 2 1496 57.96% 27.06%
9 2010-11-06 62.3 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1529 55.53% Inter Baku 1 1424 16.67% 27.80%
10 2010-12-23 61.4 Qarabag 2 1410 18.22% @ Khazar Lankaran 1 1496 53.43% 28.35%
11 2010-10-02 61.2 @ Khazar Lankaran 1 1506 53.33% Baku 1 1421 18.30% 28.37%
12 2011-04-16 60.3 @ Khazar Lankaran 1 1501 55.75% Inter Baku 1 1394 16.52% 27.74%
13 2011-04-30 60.3 @ Inter Baku 1 1389 25.20% Khazar Lankaran 1 1524 44.96% 29.84%
14 2010-08-28 60.2 @ Simurq Zaqatala 2 1290 44.65% Turan 2 1279 25.48% 29.87%
15 2010-11-27 60.0 @ Baku 1 1429 36.21% Khazar Lankaran 1 1480 33.41% 30.37%
16 2011-05-19 59.7 @ Simurq Zaqatala 4 1108 23.08% Ganja 3 1262 47.40% 29.52%
17 2010-12-11 59.6 @ Inter Baku 1 1410 32.25% AZAL 1 1488 37.40% 30.35%
18 2011-05-08 59.6 @ Neftchi Baku 0 1615 66.61% Inter Baku 0 1390 9.87% 23.52%
19 2010-12-04 58.8 @ AZAL 0 1488 34.71% Neftchi Baku 0 1549 34.91% 30.38%
20 2010-08-08 58.7 @ MOIK Baku 3 1109 20.82% Mughan 2 1286 50.12% 29.06%
21 2011-02-13 58.7 @ Neftchi Baku 0 1545 51.32% Khazar Lankaran 0 1478 19.85% 28.82%
22 2010-12-18 58.4 Inter Baku 2 1410 22.88% @ Baku 1 1445 47.63% 29.48%
23 2011-03-18 57.9 @ Inter Baku 1 1401 38.02% Baku 1 1439 31.65% 30.33%
24 2011-05-18 57.5 @ AZAL 3 1406 24.91% Qarabag 1 1543 45.29% 29.80%
25 2011-04-10 57.3 @ Qarabag 0 1496 42.68% Khazar Lankaran 0 1500 27.26% 30.06%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-11-05 25.9 @ Qarabag 3 1422 78.99% MOIK Baku 0 1025 4.68% 16.33%
2 2011-02-19 26.6 Inter Baku 4 1441 75.06% @ MOIK Baku 0 984 6.11% 18.83%
3 2010-09-12 27.1 @ Khazar Lankaran 3 1492 77.31% MOIK Baku 0 1122 5.27% 17.42%
4 2011-02-25 27.8 @ Neftchi Baku 1 1555 88.16% MOIK Baku 0 976 1.98% 9.86%
5 2010-12-04 28.0 Gabala 3 1423 71.93% @ MOIK Baku 0 1010 7.38% 20.69%
6 2010-12-18 28.0 Khazar Lankaran 2 1492 77.59% @ MOIK Baku 0 997 5.17% 17.24%
7 2010-11-20 28.1 Baku 4 1417 70.30% @ MOIK Baku 0 1026 8.09% 21.61%
8 2010-09-18 29.3 Neftchi Baku 4 1485 68.55% @ MOIK Baku 0 1117 8.91% 22.55%
9 2011-04-17 29.5 @ Gabala 3 1397 68.03% Simurq Zaqatala 0 1155 9.16% 22.81%
10 2010-09-26 29.8 @ AZAL 2 1394 71.87% MOIK Baku 0 1103 7.40% 20.73%
11 2010-10-30 31.4 @ Turan 2 1240 65.05% MOIK Baku 0 1034 10.68% 24.26%
12 2011-04-23 31.4 @ Mughan 3 1300 60.52% Simurq Zaqatala 0 1144 13.32% 26.16%
13 2011-05-12 31.4 @ Mughan 1 1336 74.52% MOIK Baku 0 1008 6.32% 19.16%
14 2010-08-15 31.7 @ Inter Baku 1 1487 76.79% MOIK Baku 0 1125 5.46% 17.75%
15 2010-11-27 31.7 @ Gabala 4 1402 61.49% Simurq Zaqatala 0 1237 12.72% 25.79%
16 2010-12-23 31.8 @ Neftchi Baku 2 1540 73.42% Turan 0 1227 6.75% 19.82%
17 2010-09-22 32.1 @ Qarabag 3 1399 61.22% Ganja 0 1237 12.89% 25.89%
18 2011-02-19 32.5 Neftchi Baku 3 1542 65.05% @ Simurq Zaqatala 0 1216 10.68% 24.26%
19 2011-04-30 32.6 @ Ganja 1 1265 70.30% MOIK Baku 0 995 8.09% 21.61%
20 2010-11-20 32.7 @ Inter Baku 3 1425 61.17% Turan 0 1263 12.91% 25.91%
21 2010-11-27 32.7 @ Ganja 1 1282 70.11% MOIK Baku 0 1014 8.18% 21.71%
22 2011-02-13 32.7 @ Inter Baku 2 1432 65.17% Simurq Zaqatala 0 1225 10.62% 24.21%
23 2010-11-21 33.0 @ Khazar Lankaran 2 1472 66.66% Mughan 0 1247 9.84% 23.50%
24 2011-03-18 33.1 @ Turan 1 1229 68.64% MOIK Baku 0 980 8.86% 22.50%
25 2010-10-23 33.2 @ Khazar Lankaran 2 1459 65.45% Turan 0 1249 10.47% 24.08%