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1948-49 A Group Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Levski Sofia

33 points · 6th Title

Last Title: 1947

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Levski Sofia

7.84 points above expected

33 points · 25.16 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bdin Vidin

6.60 points below expected

8 points · 14.60 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Levski Sofia Champion 18 15 3 0 33 44 8 +36 25.16 +7.84
2 CSKA Sofia 18 10 4 4 24 28 15 +13 21.44 +2.56
3 Slavia Sofia 18 9 3 6 21 29 20 +9 21.74 -0.74
4 Lokomotiv Sofia 18 8 5 5 21 25 17 +8 19.70 +1.30
5 Cherno More 18 9 3 6 21 30 25 +5 20.06 +0.94
6 Spartak Sofia 18 8 5 5 21 23 18 +5 16.99 +4.01
7 Slavia Plovdiv 18 4 8 6 16 16 21 -5 16.60 -0.60
8 Bdin Vidin 18 2 4 12 8 13 35 -22 14.60 -6.60
9 Marek Dupnitsa 18 2 4 12 8 16 42 -26 10.76 -2.76
10 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 18 2 3 13 7 15 38 -23 12.95 -5.95

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Levski Sofia 33 25.16 +7.84
2 Spartak Sofia 21 16.99 +4.01
3 CSKA Sofia 24 21.44 +2.56
4 Lokomotiv Sofia 21 19.70 +1.30
5 Cherno More 21 20.06 +0.94

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bdin Vidin 8 14.60 -6.60
2 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 7 12.95 -5.95
3 Marek Dupnitsa 8 10.76 -2.76
4 Slavia Sofia 21 21.74 -0.74
5 Slavia Plovdiv 16 16.60 -0.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lokomotiv Sofia 5 Apr 23 – Jun 10 1 in 46
2 Slavia Sofia 4 Oct 10 – Oct 30 1 in 34
3 CSKA Sofia 4 Mar 20 – Apr 24 1 in 16
4 Spartak Sofia 2 Dec 12 – Mar 20 1 in 6
5 Levski Sofia 5 Nov 21 – Mar 17 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Slavia Sofia 4 May 27 – Jun 30 1 in 281
2 Cherno More 3 Dec 12 – Mar 27 1 in 52
3 Bdin Vidin 4 Mar 19 – Apr 23 1 in 25
4 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 3 Oct 10 – Oct 24 1 in 17
5 CSKA Sofia 2 Dec 4 – Dec 11 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Spartak Sofia 7 Nov 27 – Apr 21 1 in 117
2 Slavia Plovdiv 7 Nov 14 – Mar 27 1 in 49
3 Levski Sofia 18 Oct 9 – Jul 18 1 in 47
4 Marek Dupnitsa 2 May 30 – Jun 4 1 in 11
5 CSKA Sofia 5 Oct 23 – Nov 28 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bdin Vidin 13 Nov 21 – Jul 18 1 in 32
2 Slavia Sofia 4 May 27 – Jun 30 1 in 15
3 Marek Dupnitsa 10 Oct 10 – Mar 20 1 in 11
4 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 10 Nov 14 – May 22 1 in 9
5 Spartak Sofia 5 Oct 30 – Dec 5 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Levski Sofia 2085 33 +29 9 7.9 +1.1
CSKA Sofia 1882 24 -5 6 6.3 -0.3
Lokomotiv Sofia 1878 21 +96 9 6.4 +2.6
Cherno More 1842 21 +101 7 5.4 +1.6
Spartak Sofia 1842 21 +28 6 5.1 +0.9
Slavia Sofia 1769 21 -164 2 6.4 -4.4
Slavia Plovdiv 1711 16 -11 5 5.5 -0.5
Marek Dupnitsa 1538 8 -2 3 1.9 +1.1
Bdin Vidin 1473 8 -48 1 2.5 -1.5
FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 1480 7 -24 2 2.5 -0.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BV CS CM FCB( LS LS MD SP SS SS
Bdin Vidin —
0-0-2
1.78
0-1-1
1.94
1-0-1
3.23
0-0-2
0.72
0-1-1
2.13
1-0-1
3.70
0-2-0
1.84
0-0-2
2.21
0-0-2
2.65
CSKA Sofia
2-0-0
3.74
 —
1-0-1
3.01
2-0-0
3.58
0-1-1
1.41
1-1-0
2.80
1-1-0
4.46
2-0-0
3.31
1-0-1
3.09
0-1-1
3.57
Cherno More
1-1-0
3.58
1-0-1
2.49
 —
2-0-0
3.86
0-0-2
1.81
1-0-1
2.77
1-1-0
4.54
0-1-1
3.07
2-0-0
2.44
1-0-1
3.25
FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st)
1-0-1
2.28
0-0-2
1.93
0-0-2
1.65
 —
0-0-2
0.69
0-1-1
2.21
1-0-1
3.19
0-1-1
1.95
0-0-2
0.93
0-1-1
1.89
Levski Sofia
2-0-0
4.82
1-1-0
4.11
2-0-0
3.71
2-0-0
4.85
 —
2-0-0
3.22
2-0-0
4.91
2-0-0
4.05
1-1-0
3.31
1-1-0
3.29
Lokomotiv Sofia
1-1-0
3.38
0-1-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
3.30
0-0-2
2.29
 —
2-0-0
4.35
0-1-1
3.74
2-0-0
1.94
1-1-0
3.61
Marek Dupnitsa
1-0-1
1.81
0-1-1
1.07
0-1-1
0.99
1-0-1
2.32
0-0-2
0.64
0-0-2
1.17
 —
0-2-0
1.91
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-2
2.22
Slavia Plovdiv
0-2-0
3.66
0-0-2
2.20
1-1-0
2.44
1-1-0
3.57
0-0-2
1.47
1-1-0
1.77
0-2-0
3.60
 —
0-1-1
1.86
1-0-1
2.22
Slavia Sofia
2-0-0
3.30
1-0-1
2.42
0-0-2
3.07
2-0-0
4.60
0-1-1
2.20
0-0-2
3.57
2-0-0
4.27
1-1-0
3.65
 —
1-1-0
3.65
Spartak Sofia
2-0-0
2.86
1-1-0
1.94
1-0-1
2.25
1-1-0
3.63
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
1.89
2-0-0
3.30
1-0-1
3.29
0-1-1
1.86
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.87 +8.2
Allowed 0.90 -7.2
Differential 0.99 +4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%12.78%5.00%3.89%2.22%1.67%32.22%
112.78%11.11%3.33%2.78%1.11%0.56%31.67%
25.00%3.33%5.56%2.78%1.11%0.56%18.33%
33.89%2.78%2.78%—0.56%—10.00%
42.22%1.11%1.11%0.56%——5.00%
5+1.67%0.56%0.56%———2.78%
Total32.22%31.67%18.33%10.00%5.00%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.32 1.32 1.99
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%55.56%
15.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
2——11.11%———11.11%
3———————
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%33.33%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.94 -1.22
SD 1.07 1.43 2.05
CV 1.49 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
116.67%5.56%——5.56%—27.78%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total50.00%27.78%16.67%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 0.83 +0.72
SD 1.46 1.10 1.93
CV 0.94 1.32 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%————16.67%
111.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%16.67%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.39 +0.28
SD 1.14 1.09 1.36
CV 0.68 0.79 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%16.67%11.11%——38.89%
1—16.67%11.11%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
2—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—38.89%27.78%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.11 -1.28
SD 0.79 1.18 1.36
CV 0.94 0.56 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
133.33%11.11%————44.44%
2———————
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total66.67%22.22%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 0.44 +2.00
SD 1.79 0.70 1.78
CV 0.73 1.59 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%——5.56%—33.33%
111.11%5.56%————16.67%
216.67%—11.11%5.56%——33.33%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total50.00%22.22%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.94 +0.44
SD 1.24 1.21 1.82
CV 0.90 1.28 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%44.44%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
3————5.56%—5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%11.11%27.78%22.22%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 2.33 -1.44
SD 0.96 1.61 1.98
CV 1.08 0.69 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%22.22%———5.56%44.44%
111.11%16.67%————27.78%
25.56%—11.11%——5.56%22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%11.11%——11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.17 -0.28
SD 0.96 1.54 1.74
CV 1.08 1.32 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
116.67%11.11%—5.56%——33.33%
2———5.56%——5.56%
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
5+———————
Total33.33%38.89%11.11%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.11 +0.50
SD 1.50 1.08 1.69
CV 0.93 0.97 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%22.22%—5.56%——44.44%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total33.33%44.44%11.11%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.00 +0.28
SD 1.32 0.97 1.67
CV 1.03 0.97 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Levski Sofia 2085 33 25.16 +7.84 100.0% 17 19 23 25 27 31 32
CSKA Sofia 1882 24 21.44 +2.56 79.0% 13 15 19 22 24 27 28
Lokomotiv Sofia 1878 21 19.70 +1.30 72.0% 10 14 17 20 22 25 27
Cherno More 1842 21 20.06 +0.94 66.0% 9 15 17 20 23 26 29
Spartak Sofia 1842 21 16.99 +4.01 94.0% 10 11 15 17 19 22 23
Slavia Sofia 1769 21 21.74 -0.74 42.0% 14 16 19 22 24 26 28
Slavia Plovdiv 1711 16 16.60 -0.60 50.0% 7 12 15 16 19 23 25
Marek Dupnitsa 1538 8 10.76 -2.76 17.0% 2 4 9 11 13 15 20
FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 1480 7 12.95 -5.95 4.0% 6 8 11 13 15 18 22
Bdin Vidin 1473 8 14.60 -6.60 1.0% 7 10 12 14 17 20 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.89%
Slight Edge
47.78%23.33%28.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge
200 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
066.42600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.50 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.33+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
63%
Levski Sofia, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.50/gm
Runaway
00.160.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.64 * Some Luck: 2.64 to 3.97 * Lucky: 3.97 to 5.29 * Wild Swing: 5.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.1 * Close: 1.1 to 1.64 * Off: 1.64 to 2.19 * Way Off: 2.19 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.17 points
Lucky
03.308
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Pinpoint
01.373
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Levski Sofia
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
Bdin Vidin
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Lopsided
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 199.80
2.24
Wide Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
84%
Wide Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.50
Notable Separation
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.78
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
N/A
No prior ratings
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.75
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.11
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.085
Well Within Noise
00.1620.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Levski Sofia63.00%13.00%12.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%————
CSKA Sofia15.00%25.00%22.00%13.00%12.00%7.00%2.00%4.00%——
Slavia Sofia11.00%32.00%12.00%21.00%9.00%8.00%6.00%1.00%——
Lokomotiv Sofia5.00%11.00%16.00%25.00%21.00%5.00%10.00%6.00%1.00%—
Cherno More6.00%14.00%20.00%15.00%13.00%14.00%12.00%4.00%—2.00%
Spartak Sofia—1.00%9.00%7.00%17.00%27.00%15.00%12.00%10.00%2.00%
Slavia Plovdiv—4.00%6.00%9.00%13.00%22.00%19.00%15.00%8.00%4.00%
Bdin Vidin——2.00%4.00%8.00%8.00%16.00%25.00%22.00%15.00%
Marek Dupnitsa————1.00%3.00%4.00%8.00%27.00%57.00%
FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st)——1.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%16.00%25.00%32.00%20.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
CSKA Sofia 100% —
Levski Sofia 100% —
Slavia Sofia 100% —
Lokomotiv Sofia 99.00% 1.00%
Cherno More 98.00% 2.00%
Slavia Plovdiv 88.00% 12.00%
Spartak Sofia 88.00% 12.00%
Bdin Vidin 63.00% 37.00%
FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 48.00% 52.00%
Marek Dupnitsa 16.00% 84.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1948-10-09 Levski Sofia L 0-165.4 1750 1750 50.64% 24.70% 24.65%+0.33 -39.5 0
1948-10-09 @ Lokomotiv Sofia W 1-065.4 1750 1750 24.65% 24.70% 50.64%-0.33 +39.5 2
1948-10-10 Slavia Sofia L 0-165.4 1750 1750 50.64% 24.70% 24.65%+0.33 -39.5 0
1948-10-10 @ Bdin Vidin W 1-065.4 1750 1750 24.65% 24.70% 50.64%-0.33 +39.5 2
1948-10-10 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 2-054.6 1750 1750 50.64% 24.70% 24.65%+0.33 +42.0 2
1948-10-10 @ CSKA Sofia L 0-254.6 1750 1750 24.65% 24.70% 50.64%-0.33 -42.0 0
1948-10-10 Cherno More D 1-172.9 1750 1750 50.64% 24.70% 24.65%+0.33 -4.5 1
1948-10-10 @ Slavia Plovdiv D 1-172.9 1750 1750 24.65% 24.70% 50.64%-0.33 +4.5 1
1948-10-10 Spartak Sofia L 0-262.4 1750 1750 50.64% 24.70% 24.65%+0.33 -74.6 0
1948-10-10 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 2-062.4 1750 1750 24.65% 24.70% 50.64%-0.33 +74.6 2
1948-10-16 Levski Sofia L 0-361.7 1825 1790 54.46% 24.64% 20.90%+0.51 -115.9 2
1948-10-16 @ Spartak Sofia W 3-061.7 1790 1825 20.90% 24.64% 54.46%-0.51 +115.9 4
1948-10-17 Marek Dupnitsa W 4-050.2 1710 1675 54.46% 24.64% 20.90%+0.51 +69.8 2
1948-10-17 @ Bdin Vidin L 0-450.2 1675 1710 20.90% 24.64% 54.46%-0.51 -69.8 0
1948-10-17 CSKA Sofia W 2-056.1 1754 1792 46.08% 24.74% 29.18%+0.14 +48.0 3
1948-10-17 @ Cherno More L 0-256.1 1792 1754 29.18% 24.74% 46.08%-0.14 -48.0 2
1948-10-17 Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-261.9 1708 1710 50.36% 24.71% 24.94%+0.32 -74.2 0
1948-10-17 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 2-061.9 1710 1708 24.94% 24.71% 50.36%-0.32 +74.2 2
1948-10-17 Slavia Plovdiv W 1-056.3 1790 1746 55.37% 24.62% 20.01%+0.55 +18.8 4
1948-10-17 @ Slavia Sofia L 0-156.3 1746 1790 20.01% 24.62% 55.37%-0.55 -18.8 1
1948-10-23 CSKA Sofia D 2-278.5 1785 1744 55.03% 24.63% 20.34%+0.53 -4.6 3
1948-10-23 @ Lokomotiv Sofia D 2-278.5 1744 1785 20.34% 24.63% 55.03%-0.53 +4.6 3
1948-10-24 Cherno More L 2-464.7 1634 1802 28.35% 24.64% 47.01%-0.51 -36.3 0
1948-10-24 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 4-264.7 1802 1634 47.01% 24.64% 28.35%+0.51 +36.3 5
1948-10-24 Levski Sofia L 0-158.6 1727 1905 27.12% 24.62% 48.27%-0.56 -24.0 1
1948-10-24 @ Slavia Plovdiv W 1-058.6 1905 1727 48.27% 24.62% 27.12%+0.56 +24.0 6
1948-10-24 Slavia Sofia L 0-352.0 1606 1808 24.33% 24.56% 51.11%-0.68 -60.3 0
1948-10-24 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 3-052.0 1808 1606 51.11% 24.56% 24.33%+0.68 +60.3 6
1948-10-24 Bdin Vidin W 1-060.3 1709 1780 41.57% 24.75% 33.68%-0.03 +28.4 4
1948-10-24 @ Spartak Sofia L 0-160.3 1780 1709 33.68% 24.75% 41.57%+0.03 -28.4 2
1948-10-30 Slavia Sofia L 0-160.4 1737 1869 33.17% 24.70% 42.13%-0.33 -28.1 4
1948-10-30 @ Spartak Sofia W 1-060.4 1869 1737 42.13% 24.70% 33.17%+0.33 +28.1 8
1948-10-31 Lokomotiv Sofia D 2-278.5 1752 1780 47.25% 24.73% 28.01%+0.19 -2.4 3
1948-10-31 @ Bdin Vidin D 2-278.5 1780 1752 28.01% 24.73% 47.25%-0.19 +2.4 4
1948-10-31 Levski Sofia L 2-372.6 1839 1929 38.90% 24.74% 36.35%-0.12 -28.4 5
1948-10-31 @ Cherno More W 3-272.6 1929 1839 36.35% 24.74% 38.90%+0.12 +28.4 8
1948-10-31 Slavia Plovdiv W 5-050.5 1749 1703 55.56% 24.62% 19.83%+0.56 +82.4 5
1948-10-31 @ CSKA Sofia L 0-550.5 1703 1749 19.83% 24.62% 55.56%-0.56 -82.4 1
1948-10-31 Marek Dupnitsa W 2-156.7 1598 1545 56.17% 24.60% 19.23%+0.59 +17.2 2
1948-10-31 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) L 1-256.7 1545 1598 19.23% 24.60% 56.17%-0.59 -17.2 0
1948-11-13 Levski Sofia D 1-173.3 1897 1958 43.00% 24.75% 32.26%+0.03 -1.8 9
1948-11-13 @ Slavia Sofia D 1-173.3 1958 1897 32.26% 24.75% 43.00%-0.03 +1.8 9
1948-11-14 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 1-053.1 1749 1615 63.02% 24.33% 12.64%+1.00 +12.7 5
1948-11-14 @ Bdin Vidin L 0-153.1 1615 1749 12.64% 24.33% 63.02%-1.00 -12.7 2
1948-11-14 Lokomotiv Sofia W 1-056.9 1810 1782 53.72% 24.66% 21.62%+0.47 +20.0 7
1948-11-14 @ Cherno More L 0-156.9 1782 1810 21.62% 24.66% 53.72%-0.47 -20.0 4
1948-11-14 Slavia Plovdiv D 2-273.9 1528 1620 38.70% 24.74% 36.56%-0.13 -0.3 1
1948-11-14 @ Marek Dupnitsa D 2-273.9 1620 1528 36.56% 24.74% 38.70%+0.13 +0.3 2
1948-11-14 CSKA Sofia D 1-173.0 1709 1831 34.48% 24.72% 40.80%-0.28 +1.0 5
1948-11-14 @ Spartak Sofia D 1-173.0 1831 1709 40.80% 24.72% 34.48%+0.28 -1.0 6
1948-11-20 Slavia Sofia W 2-060.2 1762 1895 33.04% 24.70% 42.25%-0.33 +63.8 6
1948-11-20 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-260.2 1895 1762 42.25% 24.70% 33.04%+0.33 -63.8 9
1948-11-21 Cherno More D 2-278.6 1762 1830 42.02% 24.75% 33.23%-0.01 -1.1 6
1948-11-21 @ Bdin Vidin D 2-278.6 1830 1762 33.23% 24.75% 42.02%+0.01 +1.1 8
1948-11-21 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 5-149.1 1960 1602 73.19% 22.98% 3.83%+2.12 +12.4 11
1948-11-21 @ Levski Sofia L 1-549.1 1602 1960 3.83% 22.98% 73.19%-2.12 -12.4 2
1948-11-21 Spartak Sofia W 2-057.0 1621 1710 39.09% 24.74% 36.16%-0.11 +56.6 4
1948-11-21 @ Slavia Plovdiv L 0-257.0 1710 1621 36.16% 24.74% 39.09%+0.11 -56.6 5
1948-11-21 CSKA Sofia L 0-153.7 1528 1830 15.02% 24.18% 60.80%-1.18 -14.7 1
1948-11-21 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 1-053.7 1830 1528 60.80% 24.18% 15.02%+1.18 +14.7 8
1948-11-27 Lokomotiv Sofia D 0-068.2 1653 1826 27.84% 24.63% 47.53%-0.53 +3.7 6
1948-11-27 @ Spartak Sofia D 0-068.2 1826 1653 47.53% 24.63% 27.84%+0.53 -3.7 7
1948-11-28 CSKA Sofia L 0-259.4 1761 1845 39.91% 24.75% 35.34%-0.09 -61.0 6
1948-11-28 @ Bdin Vidin W 2-059.4 1845 1761 35.34% 24.75% 39.91%+0.09 +61.0 10
1948-11-28 Slavia Sofia W 1-057.9 1832 1831 50.68% 24.70% 24.61%+0.33 +22.3 10
1948-11-28 @ Cherno More L 0-157.9 1831 1832 24.61% 24.70% 50.68%-0.33 -22.3 9
1948-11-28 Slavia Plovdiv D 1-170.9 1590 1677 39.34% 24.74% 35.92%-0.11 -0.5 3
1948-11-28 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) D 1-170.9 1677 1590 35.92% 24.74% 39.34%+0.11 +0.5 5
1948-11-28 Marek Dupnitsa W 6-045.2 1972 1513 75.68% 22.10% 2.22%+2.62 +12.5 13
1948-11-28 @ Levski Sofia L 0-645.2 1513 1972 2.22% 22.10% 75.68%-2.62 -12.5 1
1948-12-04 Slavia Sofia L 1-468.4 1906 1809 60.15% 24.47% 15.38%+0.81 -107.9 10
1948-12-04 @ CSKA Sofia W 4-168.4 1809 1906 15.38% 24.47% 60.15%-0.81 +107.9 11
1948-12-05 Marek Dupnitsa W 3-260.3 1854 1501 73.06% 23.01% 3.93%+2.09 +3.8 12
1948-12-05 @ Cherno More L 2-360.3 1501 1854 3.93% 23.01% 73.06%-2.09 -3.8 1
1948-12-05 Spartak Sofia D 1-170.6 1589 1657 42.05% 24.75% 33.21%-0.01 -1.4 4
1948-12-05 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) D 1-170.6 1657 1589 33.21% 24.75% 42.05%+0.01 +1.4 7
1948-12-05 Bdin Vidin W 5-046.5 1984 1700 70.79% 23.52% 5.69%+1.75 +26.9 15
1948-12-05 @ Levski Sofia L 0-546.5 1700 1984 5.69% 23.52% 70.79%-1.75 -26.9 6
1948-12-05 Lokomotiv Sofia W 1-063.4 1678 1823 31.40% 24.68% 43.91%-0.39 +34.9 7
1948-12-05 @ Slavia Plovdiv L 0-163.4 1823 1678 43.91% 24.68% 31.40%+0.39 -34.9 7
1948-12-11 CSKA Sofia W 1-052.9 2011 1798 67.72% 23.95% 8.32%+1.40 +8.7 17
1948-12-11 @ Levski Sofia L 0-152.9 1798 2011 8.32% 23.95% 67.72%-1.40 -8.7 10
1948-12-12 Slavia Sofia L 2-364.2 1588 1917 13.06% 24.05% 62.89%-1.31 -11.6 4
1948-12-12 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 3-264.2 1917 1588 62.89% 24.05% 13.06%+1.31 +11.6 13
1948-12-12 Bdin Vidin D 0-067.7 1713 1673 54.92% 24.63% 20.45%+0.53 -6.8 8
1948-12-12 @ Slavia Plovdiv D 0-067.7 1673 1713 20.45% 24.63% 54.92%-0.53 +6.8 7
1948-12-12 Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-348.1 1497 1788 15.90% 24.24% 59.87%-1.12 -42.3 1
1948-12-12 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 3-048.1 1788 1497 59.87% 24.24% 15.90%+1.12 +42.3 9
1948-12-12 Cherno More W 1-065.4 1659 1858 24.75% 24.57% 50.68%-0.66 +39.5 9
1948-12-12 @ Spartak Sofia L 0-165.4 1858 1659 50.68% 24.57% 24.75%+0.66 -39.5 12
1949-03-17 Lokomotiv Sofia W 4-047.6 2020 1830 66.49% 24.08% 9.44%+1.28 +35.1 19
1949-03-17 @ Levski Sofia L 0-447.6 1830 2020 9.44% 24.08% 66.49%-1.28 -35.1 9
1949-03-19 Bdin Vidin W 4-152.1 1928 1680 69.35% 23.75% 6.91%+1.57 +17.0 15
1949-03-19 @ Slavia Sofia L 1-452.1 1680 1928 6.91% 23.75% 69.35%-1.57 -17.0 7
1949-03-20 Slavia Plovdiv L 0-168.6 1818 1706 61.37% 24.42% 14.21%+0.89 -47.7 12
1949-03-20 @ Cherno More W 1-068.6 1706 1818 14.21% 24.42% 61.37%-0.89 +47.7 10
1949-03-20 CSKA Sofia L 1-261.8 1576 1789 23.19% 24.53% 52.28%-0.73 -20.0 4
1949-03-20 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 2-161.8 1789 1576 52.28% 24.53% 23.19%+0.73 +20.0 12
1949-03-20 Marek Dupnitsa W 2-153.1 1698 1455 69.12% 23.78% 7.10%+1.55 +7.1 11
1949-03-20 @ Spartak Sofia L 1-253.1 1455 1698 7.10% 23.78% 69.12%-1.55 -7.1 1
1949-03-24 Spartak Sofia D 1-173.7 2055 1705 72.97% 23.04% 3.99%+2.08 -13.7 20
1949-03-24 @ Levski Sofia D 1-173.7 1705 2055 3.99% 23.04% 72.97%-2.08 +13.7 12
1949-03-26 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) D 1-172.2 1795 1556 68.92% 23.81% 7.27%+1.52 -12.0 10
1949-03-26 @ Lokomotiv Sofia D 1-172.2 1556 1795 7.27% 23.81% 68.92%-1.52 +12.0 5
1949-03-27 Cherno More W 3-159.1 1809 1770 54.83% 24.63% 20.54%+0.52 +31.4 14
1949-03-27 @ CSKA Sofia L 1-359.1 1770 1809 20.54% 24.63% 54.83%-0.52 -31.4 12
1949-03-27 Slavia Sofia D 0-068.7 1754 1945 25.57% 24.59% 49.84%-0.63 +4.6 11
1949-03-27 @ Slavia Plovdiv D 0-068.7 1945 1754 49.84% 24.59% 25.57%+0.63 -4.6 16
1949-03-27 Bdin Vidin W 1-060.3 1448 1663 22.94% 24.52% 52.54%-0.74 +40.9 3
1949-03-27 @ Marek Dupnitsa L 0-160.3 1663 1448 52.54% 24.52% 22.94%+0.74 -40.8 7
1949-04-07 Lokomotiv Sofia W 3-266.4 1840 1783 56.68% 24.59% 18.73%+0.62 +15.9 16
1949-04-07 @ CSKA Sofia L 2-366.4 1783 1840 18.73% 24.59% 56.68%-0.62 -15.9 10
1949-04-09 Marek Dupnitsa W 4-362.7 1941 1488 75.54% 22.16% 2.30%+2.59 +2.2 18
1949-04-09 @ Slavia Sofia L 3-462.7 1488 1941 2.30% 22.16% 75.54%-2.59 -2.2 3
1949-04-10 Spartak Sofia L 0-355.6 1622 1719 38.03% 24.74% 37.23%-0.15 -85.3 7
1949-04-10 @ Bdin Vidin W 3-055.6 1719 1622 37.23% 24.74% 38.03%+0.15 +85.3 14
1949-04-10 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 2-157.2 1739 1568 65.38% 24.17% 10.45%+1.18 +10.1 14
1949-04-10 @ Cherno More L 1-257.2 1568 1739 10.45% 24.17% 65.38%-1.18 -10.1 5
1949-04-10 Slavia Plovdiv W 1-052.0 2042 1758 70.75% 23.52% 5.73%+1.75 +6.1 22
1949-04-10 @ Levski Sofia L 0-152.0 1758 2042 5.73% 23.52% 70.75%-1.75 -6.2 11
1949-04-21 Spartak Sofia D 1-173.4 1943 1804 63.30% 24.32% 12.38%+1.02 -9.5 19
1949-04-21 @ Slavia Sofia D 1-173.4 1804 1943 12.38% 24.32% 63.30%-1.02 +9.5 15
1949-04-23 Bdin Vidin W 2-047.8 1767 1537 68.52% 23.86% 7.62%+1.48 +15.2 12
1949-04-23 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-247.8 1537 1767 7.62% 23.86% 68.52%-1.48 -15.2 7
1949-04-24 Cherno More W 4-258.1 2048 1749 71.31% 23.42% 5.27%+1.82 +8.3 24
1949-04-24 @ Levski Sofia L 2-458.1 1749 2048 5.27% 23.42% 71.31%-1.82 -8.3 14
1949-04-24 CSKA Sofia L 0-161.6 1752 1856 36.99% 24.73% 38.28%-0.19 -30.5 11
1949-04-24 @ Slavia Plovdiv W 1-061.6 1856 1752 38.28% 24.73% 36.99%+0.19 +30.5 18
1949-04-24 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 2-049.4 1486 1558 41.58% 24.75% 33.68%-0.03 +53.6 5
1949-04-24 @ Marek Dupnitsa L 0-249.4 1558 1486 33.68% 24.75% 41.58%+0.03 -53.6 5
1949-05-21 Marek Dupnitsa W 4-045.2 1782 1540 69.07% 23.79% 7.14%+1.54 +27.1 14
1949-05-21 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-445.2 1540 1782 7.14% 23.79% 69.07%-1.54 -27.1 5
1949-05-22 Slavia Plovdiv D 1-170.6 1522 1722 24.63% 24.56% 50.80%-0.67 +4.5 8
1949-05-22 @ Bdin Vidin D 1-170.6 1722 1522 50.80% 24.56% 24.63%+0.67 -4.5 12
1949-05-22 Spartak Sofia W 3-163.0 1741 1814 41.38% 24.75% 33.87%-0.03 +46.6 16
1949-05-22 @ Cherno More L 1-363.0 1814 1741 33.87% 24.75% 41.38%+0.03 -46.6 15
1949-05-22 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 3-045.0 1933 1504 75.03% 22.37% 2.60%+2.47 +7.7 21
1949-05-22 @ Slavia Sofia L 0-345.0 1504 1933 2.60% 22.37% 75.03%-2.47 -7.7 5
1949-05-27 Slavia Sofia W 1-054.8 2056 1941 61.57% 24.41% 14.02%+0.90 +13.9 26
1949-05-27 @ Levski Sofia L 0-154.8 1941 2056 14.02% 24.41% 61.57%-0.90 -13.9 21
1949-05-28 Spartak Sofia L 0-169.0 1887 1767 61.93% 24.39% 13.68%+0.93 -48.2 18
1949-05-28 @ CSKA Sofia W 1-069.0 1767 1887 13.68% 24.39% 61.93%-0.93 +48.2 17
1949-05-29 Bdin Vidin W 2-155.4 1497 1526 47.09% 24.73% 28.17%+0.18 +23.3 7
1949-05-29 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) L 1-255.4 1526 1497 28.17% 24.73% 47.09%-0.18 -23.3 8
1949-05-30 Marek Dupnitsa D 2-276.0 1717 1513 67.25% 24.00% 8.75%+1.35 -8.4 13
1949-05-30 @ Slavia Plovdiv D 2-276.0 1513 1717 8.75% 24.00% 67.25%-1.35 +8.4 6
1949-05-30 Cherno More W 1-057.1 1809 1787 53.07% 24.67% 22.26%+0.44 +20.5 16
1949-05-30 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-157.1 1787 1809 22.26% 24.67% 53.07%-0.44 -20.5 16
1949-06-03 Lokomotiv Sofia L 2-378.9 1927 1830 60.21% 24.47% 15.32%+0.82 -41.8 21
1949-06-03 @ Slavia Sofia W 3-278.9 1830 1927 15.32% 24.47% 60.21%-0.82 +41.8 18
1949-06-04 Marek Dupnitsa D 0-067.9 1839 1521 71.95% 23.28% 4.76%+1.92 -14.9 19
1949-06-04 @ CSKA Sofia D 0-067.9 1521 1839 4.76% 23.28% 71.95%-1.92 +14.9 7
1949-06-05 Bdin Vidin W 2-155.3 1767 1503 70.00% 23.65% 6.35%+1.65 +6.4 18
1949-06-05 @ Cherno More L 1-255.3 1503 1767 6.35% 23.65% 70.00%-1.65 -6.4 8
1949-06-05 Levski Sofia L 0-151.0 1520 2070 4.05% 22.48% 73.47%-2.41 -4.3 7
1949-06-05 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 1-051.0 2070 1520 73.47% 22.48% 4.05%+2.41 +4.3 28
1949-06-10 Spartak Sofia W 1-056.2 1872 1815 56.56% 24.59% 18.84%+0.61 +17.9 20
1949-06-10 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-156.2 1815 1872 18.84% 24.59% 56.56%-0.61 -17.9 17
1949-06-12 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 3-045.1 1709 1516 66.65% 24.06% 9.29%+1.30 +26.5 15
1949-06-12 @ Slavia Plovdiv L 0-345.1 1516 1709 9.29% 24.06% 66.65%-1.30 -26.5 7
1949-06-12 Levski Sofia L 1-353.6 1536 2074 4.32% 22.58% 73.10%-2.35 -7.5 7
1949-06-12 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 3-153.6 2074 1536 73.10% 22.58% 4.32%+2.35 +7.5 30
1949-06-12 Cherno More L 1-371.4 1885 1773 61.37% 24.42% 14.21%+0.89 -77.9 21
1949-06-12 @ Slavia Sofia W 3-171.4 1773 1885 14.21% 24.42% 61.37%-0.89 +77.9 20
1949-06-30 CSKA Sofia L 0-165.1 1807 1824 48.73% 24.72% 26.55%+0.25 -38.2 21
1949-06-30 @ Slavia Sofia W 1-065.1 1824 1807 26.55% 24.72% 48.73%-0.25 +38.2 21
1949-07-13 Levski Sofia D 0-068.8 1862 2082 22.47% 24.51% 53.02%-0.77 +5.9 22
1949-07-13 @ CSKA Sofia D 0-068.8 2082 1862 53.02% 24.51% 22.47%+0.77 -5.9 31
1949-07-14 FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) W 3-152.2 1797 1489 71.65% 23.35% 5.00%+1.87 +8.8 19
1949-07-14 @ Spartak Sofia L 1-352.2 1489 1797 5.00% 23.35% 71.65%-1.87 -8.8 7
1949-07-15 Slavia Plovdiv D 0-068.7 1890 1735 64.34% 24.25% 11.41%+1.10 -11.1 21
1949-07-15 @ Lokomotiv Sofia D 0-068.7 1735 1890 11.41% 24.25% 64.34%-1.10 +11.1 16
1949-07-16 Bdin Vidin W 4-044.3 1868 1496 73.58% 22.86% 3.56%+2.19 +13.8 24
1949-07-16 @ CSKA Sofia L 0-444.3 1496 1868 3.56% 22.86% 73.58%-2.19 -13.8 8
1949-07-17 Cherno More D 1-172.4 1529 1851 13.51% 24.08% 62.41%-1.28 +9.0 8
1949-07-17 @ Marek Dupnitsa D 1-172.4 1851 1529 62.41% 24.08% 13.51%+1.28 -9.0 21
1949-07-17 Slavia Plovdiv W 5-258.3 1806 1746 56.91% 24.58% 18.50%+0.63 +35.3 21
1949-07-17 @ Spartak Sofia L 2-558.3 1746 1806 18.50% 24.58% 56.91%-0.63 -35.3 16
1949-07-18 Levski Sofia L 0-345.5 1483 2076 3.21% 22.08% 74.70%-2.63 -9.3 8
1949-07-18 @ Bdin Vidin W 3-045.5 2076 1483 74.70% 22.08% 3.21%+2.63 +9.3 33

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1949-05-28 13.68% Spartak Sofia 1767 1 @ CSKA Sofia 1887 0
2 1949-03-20 14.21% Slavia Plovdiv 1706 1 @ Cherno More 1818 0
3 1949-06-12 14.21% Cherno More 1773 3 @ Slavia Sofia 1885 1
4 1949-06-03 15.32% Lokomotiv Sofia 1830 3 @ Slavia Sofia 1927 2
5 1948-12-04 15.38% Slavia Sofia 1809 4 @ CSKA Sofia 1906 1
6 1948-10-16 20.90% Levski Sofia 1790 3 @ Spartak Sofia 1825 0
7 1949-03-27 22.94% @ Marek Dupnitsa 1448 1 Bdin Vidin 1663 0
8 1948-10-09 24.65% Levski Sofia 1750 1 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 1750 0
9 1948-10-10 24.65% Slavia Sofia 1750 1 @ Bdin Vidin 1750 0
10 1948-10-10 24.65% Spartak Sofia 1750 2 @ Marek Dupnitsa 1750 0
11 1948-12-12 24.75% @ Spartak Sofia 1659 1 Cherno More 1858 0
12 1948-10-17 24.94% Lokomotiv Sofia 1710 2 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 1708 0
13 1949-06-30 26.55% CSKA Sofia 1824 1 @ Slavia Sofia 1807 0
14 1948-12-05 31.40% @ Slavia Plovdiv 1678 1 Lokomotiv Sofia 1823 0
15 1948-11-20 33.04% @ Lokomotiv Sofia 1762 2 Slavia Sofia 1895 0
16 1948-11-28 35.34% CSKA Sofia 1845 2 @ Bdin Vidin 1761 0
17 1948-10-31 36.35% Levski Sofia 1929 3 @ Cherno More 1839 2
18 1949-04-10 37.23% Spartak Sofia 1719 3 @ Bdin Vidin 1622 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1948-10-16 115.92 Levski Sofia 3 1790 20.90% @ Spartak Sofia 0 1825 54.46% 24.64%
2 1948-12-04 107.93 Slavia Sofia 4 1809 15.38% @ CSKA Sofia 1 1906 60.15% 24.47%
3 1949-04-10 85.34 Spartak Sofia 3 1719 37.23% @ Bdin Vidin 0 1622 38.03% 24.74%
4 1948-10-31 82.36 @ CSKA Sofia 5 1749 55.56% Slavia Plovdiv 0 1703 19.83% 24.62%
5 1949-06-12 77.93 Cherno More 3 1773 14.21% @ Slavia Sofia 1 1885 61.37% 24.42%
6 1948-10-10 74.56 Spartak Sofia 2 1750 24.65% @ Marek Dupnitsa 0 1750 50.64% 24.70%
7 1948-10-17 74.18 Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1710 24.94% @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 0 1708 50.36% 24.71%
8 1948-10-17 69.76 @ Bdin Vidin 4 1710 54.46% Marek Dupnitsa 0 1675 20.90% 24.64%
9 1948-11-20 63.78 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1762 33.04% Slavia Sofia 0 1895 42.25% 24.70%
10 1948-11-28 60.98 CSKA Sofia 2 1845 35.34% @ Bdin Vidin 0 1761 39.91% 24.75%
11 1948-10-24 60.26 Slavia Sofia 3 1808 51.11% @ Marek Dupnitsa 0 1606 24.33% 24.56%
12 1948-11-21 56.57 @ Slavia Plovdiv 2 1621 39.09% Spartak Sofia 0 1710 36.16% 24.74%
13 1949-04-24 53.59 @ Marek Dupnitsa 2 1486 41.58% FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 0 1558 33.68% 24.75%
14 1949-05-28 48.18 Spartak Sofia 1 1767 13.68% @ CSKA Sofia 0 1887 61.93% 24.39%
15 1948-10-17 47.99 @ Cherno More 2 1754 46.08% CSKA Sofia 0 1792 29.18% 24.74%
16 1949-03-20 47.72 Slavia Plovdiv 1 1706 14.21% @ Cherno More 0 1818 61.37% 24.42%
17 1949-05-22 46.62 @ Cherno More 3 1741 41.38% Spartak Sofia 1 1814 33.87% 24.75%
18 1948-12-12 42.30 Lokomotiv Sofia 3 1788 59.87% @ Marek Dupnitsa 0 1497 15.90% 24.24%
19 1948-10-10 42.02 @ CSKA Sofia 2 1750 50.64% FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 0 1750 24.65% 24.70%
20 1949-06-03 41.84 Lokomotiv Sofia 3 1830 15.32% @ Slavia Sofia 2 1927 60.21% 24.47%
21 1949-03-27 40.85 @ Marek Dupnitsa 1 1448 22.94% Bdin Vidin 0 1663 52.54% 24.52%
22 1948-10-09 39.54 Levski Sofia 1 1750 24.65% @ Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1750 50.64% 24.70%
23 1948-10-10 39.54 Slavia Sofia 1 1750 24.65% @ Bdin Vidin 0 1750 50.64% 24.70%
24 1948-12-12 39.52 @ Spartak Sofia 1 1659 24.75% Cherno More 0 1858 50.68% 24.57%
25 1949-06-30 38.20 CSKA Sofia 1 1824 26.55% @ Slavia Sofia 0 1807 48.73% 24.72%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1949-06-03 78.9 Lokomotiv Sofia 3 1830 15.32% @ Slavia Sofia 2 1927 60.21% 24.47%
2 1948-11-21 78.6 @ Bdin Vidin 2 1762 42.02% Cherno More 2 1830 33.23% 24.75%
3 1948-10-23 78.5 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1785 55.03% CSKA Sofia 2 1744 20.34% 24.63%
4 1948-10-31 78.5 @ Bdin Vidin 2 1752 47.25% Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1780 28.01% 24.73%
5 1949-05-30 76.0 @ Slavia Plovdiv 2 1717 67.25% Marek Dupnitsa 2 1513 8.75% 24.00%
6 1948-11-14 73.9 @ Marek Dupnitsa 2 1528 38.70% Slavia Plovdiv 2 1620 36.56% 24.74%
7 1949-03-24 73.7 @ Levski Sofia 1 2055 72.97% Spartak Sofia 1 1705 3.99% 23.04%
8 1949-04-21 73.4 @ Slavia Sofia 1 1943 63.30% Spartak Sofia 1 1804 12.38% 24.32%
9 1948-11-13 73.3 @ Slavia Sofia 1 1897 43.00% Levski Sofia 1 1958 32.26% 24.75%
10 1948-11-14 73.0 @ Spartak Sofia 1 1709 34.48% CSKA Sofia 1 1831 40.80% 24.72%
11 1948-10-10 72.9 @ Slavia Plovdiv 1 1750 50.64% Cherno More 1 1750 24.65% 24.70%
12 1948-10-31 72.6 Levski Sofia 3 1929 36.35% @ Cherno More 2 1839 38.90% 24.74%
13 1949-07-17 72.4 @ Marek Dupnitsa 1 1529 13.51% Cherno More 1 1851 62.41% 24.08%
14 1949-03-26 72.2 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 1 1795 68.92% FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 1 1556 7.27% 23.81%
15 1949-06-12 71.4 Cherno More 3 1773 14.21% @ Slavia Sofia 1 1885 61.37% 24.42%
16 1948-11-28 70.9 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 1 1590 39.34% Slavia Plovdiv 1 1677 35.92% 24.74%
17 1948-12-05 70.6 @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 1 1589 42.05% Spartak Sofia 1 1657 33.21% 24.75%
18 1949-05-22 70.6 @ Bdin Vidin 1 1522 24.63% Slavia Plovdiv 1 1722 50.80% 24.56%
19 1949-05-28 69.0 Spartak Sofia 1 1767 13.68% @ CSKA Sofia 0 1887 61.93% 24.39%
20 1949-07-13 68.8 @ CSKA Sofia 0 1862 22.47% Levski Sofia 0 2082 53.02% 24.51%
21 1949-03-27 68.7 @ Slavia Plovdiv 0 1754 25.57% Slavia Sofia 0 1945 49.84% 24.59%
22 1949-07-15 68.7 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1890 64.34% Slavia Plovdiv 0 1735 11.41% 24.25%
23 1949-03-20 68.6 Slavia Plovdiv 1 1706 14.21% @ Cherno More 0 1818 61.37% 24.42%
24 1948-12-04 68.4 Slavia Sofia 4 1809 15.38% @ CSKA Sofia 1 1906 60.15% 24.47%
25 1948-11-27 68.2 @ Spartak Sofia 0 1653 27.84% Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1826 47.53% 24.63%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1949-07-16 44.3 @ CSKA Sofia 4 1868 73.58% Bdin Vidin 0 1496 3.56% 22.86%
2 1949-05-22 45.0 @ Slavia Sofia 3 1933 75.03% FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 0 1504 2.60% 22.37%
3 1949-06-12 45.1 @ Slavia Plovdiv 3 1709 66.65% FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 0 1516 9.29% 24.06%
4 1948-11-28 45.2 @ Levski Sofia 6 1972 75.68% Marek Dupnitsa 0 1513 2.22% 22.10%
5 1949-05-21 45.2 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 4 1782 69.07% Marek Dupnitsa 0 1540 7.14% 23.79%
6 1949-07-18 45.5 Levski Sofia 3 2076 74.70% @ Bdin Vidin 0 1483 3.21% 22.08%
7 1948-12-05 46.5 @ Levski Sofia 5 1984 70.79% Bdin Vidin 0 1700 5.69% 23.52%
8 1949-03-17 47.6 @ Levski Sofia 4 2020 66.49% Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1830 9.44% 24.08%
9 1949-04-23 47.8 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1767 68.52% Bdin Vidin 0 1537 7.62% 23.86%
10 1948-12-12 48.1 Lokomotiv Sofia 3 1788 59.87% @ Marek Dupnitsa 0 1497 15.90% 24.24%
11 1948-11-21 49.1 @ Levski Sofia 5 1960 73.19% FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 1 1602 3.83% 22.98%
12 1949-04-24 49.4 @ Marek Dupnitsa 2 1486 41.58% FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 0 1558 33.68% 24.75%
13 1948-10-17 50.2 @ Bdin Vidin 4 1710 54.46% Marek Dupnitsa 0 1675 20.90% 24.64%
14 1948-10-31 50.5 @ CSKA Sofia 5 1749 55.56% Slavia Plovdiv 0 1703 19.83% 24.62%
15 1949-06-05 51.0 Levski Sofia 1 2070 73.47% @ FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 0 1520 4.05% 22.48%
16 1948-10-24 52.0 Slavia Sofia 3 1808 51.11% @ Marek Dupnitsa 0 1606 24.33% 24.56%
17 1949-04-10 52.0 @ Levski Sofia 1 2042 70.75% Slavia Plovdiv 0 1758 5.73% 23.52%
18 1949-03-19 52.1 @ Slavia Sofia 4 1928 69.35% Bdin Vidin 1 1680 6.91% 23.75%
19 1949-07-14 52.2 @ Spartak Sofia 3 1797 71.65% FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 1 1489 5.00% 23.35%
20 1948-12-11 52.9 @ Levski Sofia 1 2011 67.72% CSKA Sofia 0 1798 8.32% 23.95%
21 1948-11-14 53.1 @ Bdin Vidin 1 1749 63.02% FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 0 1615 12.64% 24.33%
22 1949-03-20 53.1 @ Spartak Sofia 2 1698 69.12% Marek Dupnitsa 1 1455 7.10% 23.78%
23 1949-06-12 53.6 Levski Sofia 3 2074 73.10% @ Marek Dupnitsa 1 1536 4.32% 22.58%
24 1948-11-21 53.7 CSKA Sofia 1 1830 60.80% @ Marek Dupnitsa 0 1528 15.02% 24.18%
25 1948-10-10 54.6 @ CSKA Sofia 2 1750 50.64% FC Chernomorets Burgas (1st) 0 1750 24.65% 24.70%