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1950 A Group Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Levski Sofia

29 points · 7th Title

Last Title: 1948-49

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Stroitel Sofia

6.79 points above expected

27 points · 20.21 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lokomotiv Sofia

6.26 points below expected

10 points · 16.26 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Levski Sofia Champion 18 12 5 1 29 36 12 +24 28.31 +0.69
2 Stroitel Sofia 18 11 5 2 27 31 12 +19 20.21 +6.79
3 Akademik Sofia 18 10 2 6 22 40 20 +20 18.85 +3.15
4 Spartak Varna 18 10 2 6 22 37 27 +10 18.50 +3.50
5 CSKA Sofia 18 9 4 5 22 22 12 +10 23.20 -1.20
6 Cerveno Zname Sofia 18 7 2 9 16 20 29 -9 15.37 +0.63
7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 18 5 4 9 14 19 34 -15 16.19 -2.19
8 Torpedo Pleven 18 3 6 9 12 19 27 -8 14.10 -2.10
9 Lokomotiv Sofia 18 4 2 12 10 16 29 -13 16.26 -6.26
10 Marek Dupnitsa 18 2 2 14 6 9 47 -38 9.01 -3.01

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stroitel Sofia 27 20.21 +6.79
2 Spartak Varna 22 18.50 +3.50
3 Akademik Sofia 22 18.85 +3.15
4 Levski Sofia 29 28.31 +0.69
5 Cerveno Zname Sofia 16 15.37 +0.63

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lokomotiv Sofia 10 16.26 -6.26
2 Marek Dupnitsa 6 9.01 -3.01
3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 14 16.19 -2.19
4 Torpedo Pleven 12 14.10 -2.10
5 CSKA Sofia 22 23.20 -1.20

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Spartak Varna 4 Apr 9 – Apr 30 1 in 26
2 Akademik Sofia 4 Jul 9 – Nov 4 1 in 15
3 Cerveno Zname Sofia 2 Jun 24 – Jul 6 1 in 12
4 Marek Dupnitsa 1 Mar 19 – Mar 19 1 in 9
5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 Apr 23 – Apr 30 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lokomotiv Sofia 4 Apr 22 – May 10 1 in 21
2 Marek Dupnitsa 8 May 13 – Sep 10 1 in 20
3 Torpedo Pleven 4 Apr 23 – May 14 1 in 13
4 Akademik Sofia 2 Apr 15 – Apr 23 1 in 11
5 Cerveno Zname Sofia 3 Sep 9 – Nov 5 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stroitel Sofia 9 Mar 11 – May 7 1 in 155
2 Torpedo Pleven 4 Mar 26 – Apr 16 1 in 16
3 Spartak Varna 5 Apr 1 – Apr 30 1 in 12
4 Cerveno Zname Sofia 3 May 11 – Jun 8 1 in 9
5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4 Apr 23 – May 14 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lokomotiv Sofia 4 Mar 12 – Apr 9 1 in 23
2 Marek Dupnitsa 15 Mar 26 – Sep 10 1 in 16
3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 5 Jun 23 – Oct 29 1 in 11
4 Levski Sofia 2 Apr 6 – Apr 16 1 in 11
5 Torpedo Pleven 8 Apr 9 – Jun 8 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Levski Sofia 1916 29 +27 9 8.1 +0.9
Stroitel Sofia 1793 27 +100 9 6.3 +2.7
Akademik Sofia 1782 22 +81 8 5.8 +2.2
Spartak Varna 1649 22 -26 6 6.0 +0.0
CSKA Sofia 1743 22 -28 5 6.9 -1.9
Cerveno Zname Sofia 1536 16 -24 4 4.4 -0.4
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1484 14 -70 2 4.5 -2.5
Torpedo Pleven 1478 12 -25 2 3.2 -1.2
Lokomotiv Sofia 1513 10 -21 3 3.1 -0.1
Marek Dupnitsa 1278 6 -11 2 1.7 +0.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AS CS CZS LS LP LS MD SV SS TP
Akademik Sofia —
2-0-0
2.20
0-0-2
3.25
0-1-1
1.40
1-0-1
3.74
2-0-0
3.75
2-0-0
3.85
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
3.20
CSKA Sofia
0-0-2
3.40
 —
1-0-1
4.29
0-1-1
1.66
2-0-0
4.07
2-0-0
3.96
2-0-0
4.47
1-1-0
3.42
0-1-1
3.49
1-1-0
4.36
Cerveno Zname Sofia
2-0-0
2.35
1-0-1
1.32
 —
0-0-2
0.85
0-1-1
2.57
1-0-1
2.58
2-0-0
3.58
0-1-1
2.45
0-0-2
1.74
1-0-1
3.17
Levski Sofia
1-1-0
4.21
1-1-0
3.94
2-0-0
4.77
 —
2-0-0
4.54
2-0-0
4.77
2-0-0
5.12
1-0-1
4.47
0-2-0
4.17
1-1-0
4.72
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-0-1
1.87
0-0-2
1.53
1-1-0
3.03
0-0-2
1.07
 —
0-1-1
2.57
0-1-1
4.36
1-0-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.42
1-1-0
2.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
0-0-2
1.86
0-0-2
1.64
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
0.85
1-1-0
3.03
 —
1-0-1
4.22
0-0-2
2.57
0-0-2
2.61
1-1-0
3.53
Marek Dupnitsa
0-0-2
1.76
0-0-2
1.14
0-0-2
2.02
0-0-2
0.52
1-1-0
1.25
1-0-1
1.38
 —
0-0-2
0.93
0-1-1
0.99
0-0-2
2.02
Spartak Varna
1-0-1
2.66
0-1-1
2.18
1-1-0
3.16
1-0-1
1.14
1-0-1
3.44
2-0-0
3.03
2-0-0
4.68
 —
0-0-2
2.52
2-0-0
3.56
Stroitel Sofia
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-0
2.11
2-0-0
3.86
0-2-0
1.43
1-0-1
3.18
2-0-0
2.99
1-1-0
4.63
2-0-0
3.08
 —
1-1-0
4.07
Torpedo Pleven
0-1-1
2.40
0-1-1
1.25
1-0-1
2.43
0-1-1
0.90
0-1-1
2.77
0-1-1
2.07
2-0-0
3.58
0-0-2
2.04
0-1-1
1.53
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.73 +6.2
Allowed 0.78 -5.9
Differential 0.91 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.22%10.56%4.44%3.89%1.11%0.56%32.78%
110.56%4.44%7.78%4.44%2.78%0.56%30.56%
24.44%7.78%1.11%1.11%0.56%1.67%16.67%
33.89%4.44%1.11%1.11%1.11%—11.67%
41.11%2.78%0.56%1.11%——5.56%
5+0.56%0.56%1.67%———2.78%
Total32.78%30.56%16.67%11.67%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.38 +0.00
SD 1.45 1.45 2.04
CV 1.05 1.05 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%————22.22%
111.11%—16.67%———27.78%
2—11.11%————11.11%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total22.22%50.00%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.11 +1.11
SD 2.21 0.83 2.25
CV 0.99 0.75 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%22.22%————38.89%
116.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
2—16.67%————16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+———————
Total38.89%55.56%5.56%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 0.67 +0.56
SD 1.35 0.59 1.38
CV 1.11 0.89 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
211.11%11.11%—5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.61 -0.50
SD 0.96 1.58 1.89
CV 0.87 0.98 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—————16.67%
122.22%11.11%————33.33%
25.56%—————5.56%
311.11%11.11%——5.56%—27.78%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total61.11%22.22%11.11%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.67 +1.33
SD 1.53 1.08 1.37
CV 0.77 1.63 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
111.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
2—11.11%5.56%——11.11%27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%27.78%—11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.89 -0.83
SD 0.94 1.78 1.72
CV 0.89 0.94 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%22.22%11.11%———44.44%
15.56%—11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
25.56%11.11%——5.56%—22.22%
3————5.56%—5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%22.22%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.61 -0.72
SD 0.96 1.38 1.32
CV 1.08 0.86 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%—5.56%50.00%
111.11%—11.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%50.00%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%5.56%16.67%33.33%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.50 2.61 -2.11
SD 0.51 2.12 2.11
CV 1.03 0.81 —
Max 1 8 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.50 +0.56
SD 1.70 1.29 2.25
CV 0.83 0.86 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%—————22.22%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total55.56%27.78%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.67 +1.06
SD 1.53 0.91 1.51
CV 0.89 1.36 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%11.11%—5.56%—50.00%
1—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.50 -0.44
SD 1.30 1.29 1.79
CV 1.24 0.86 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Levski Sofia 1916 29 28.31 +0.69 61.0% 21 23 26 28 30 33 35
Stroitel Sofia 1793 27 20.21 +6.79 98.0% 12 15 18 20 22 26 30
Akademik Sofia 1782 22 18.85 +3.15 87.0% 11 13 17 19 21 25 28
CSKA Sofia 1743 22 23.20 -1.20 43.0% 13 16 21 23 25 28 32
Spartak Varna 1649 22 18.50 +3.50 92.0% 10 13 17 19 21 23 27
Cerveno Zname Sofia 1536 16 15.37 +0.63 69.0% 8 10 13 15 17 21 24
Lokomotiv Sofia 1513 10 16.26 -6.26 3.0% 7 11 14 16 18 22 27
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1484 14 16.19 -2.19 35.0% 7 10 13 16 19 23 25
Torpedo Pleven 1478 12 14.10 -2.10 37.0% 6 8 12 14 17 21 22
Marek Dupnitsa 1278 6 9.01 -3.01 19.0% 2 4 7 9 11 15 16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.00%
No Edge
45.56%18.89%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 34.86 Elo pts.
191 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.28 goals
Neutral
-2+0.18+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.4
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
84%
Levski Sofia, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.250.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.71 * Some Luck: 2.71 to 4.07 * Lucky: 4.07 to 5.43 * Wild Swing: 5.43 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.05 * Close: 1.05 to 1.58 * Off: 1.58 to 2.11 * Way Off: 2.11 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.58 points
Some Luck
03.398
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Close
01.323
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.00%
Stroitel Sofia
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
Lokomotiv Sofia
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Lopsided
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 192.56
1.98
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
83%
Wide Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Frequent
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.45
Notable Separation
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.13
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.39
Some Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Shaky Favorites
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.94
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.90
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.133
Well Within Noise
00.1660.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Levski Sofia84.00%12.00%4.00%———————
Stroitel Sofia3.00%15.00%28.00%16.00%17.00%12.00%4.00%5.00%——
Akademik Sofia2.00%10.00%14.00%22.00%26.00%8.00%7.00%7.00%4.00%—
Spartak Varna—6.00%12.00%23.00%18.00%22.00%10.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%
CSKA Sofia10.00%48.00%21.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%—1.00%—
Cerveno Zname Sofia—2.00%6.00%6.00%8.00%12.00%22.00%23.00%13.00%8.00%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1.00%5.00%4.00%9.00%8.00%15.00%14.00%20.00%21.00%3.00%
Torpedo Pleven——3.00%8.00%6.00%12.00%17.00%12.00%32.00%10.00%
Lokomotiv Sofia—2.00%8.00%8.00%11.00%15.00%20.00%20.00%14.00%2.00%
Marek Dupnitsa——————4.00%8.00%13.00%75.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Levski Sofia 100% —
Stroitel Sofia 100% —
CSKA Sofia 99.00% 1.00%
Akademik Sofia 96.00% 4.00%
Spartak Varna 96.00% 4.00%
Lokomotiv Sofia 84.00% 16.00%
Cerveno Zname Sofia 79.00% 21.00%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 76.00% 24.00%
Torpedo Pleven 58.00% 42.00%
Marek Dupnitsa 12.00% 88.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1950-03-09 Akademik Sofia W 1-053.6 1553 1553 47.23% 20.03% 32.74%+0.18 +19.9 2
1950-03-09 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia L 0-153.6 1553 1553 32.74% 20.03% 47.23%-0.18 -19.9 0
1950-03-11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 2-054.2 1553 1609 39.48% 20.03% 40.49%-0.11 +44.6 2
1950-03-11 @ Stroitel Sofia L 0-254.2 1609 1553 40.49% 20.03% 39.48%+0.11 -44.7 0
1950-03-12 Spartak Varna W 1-051.2 1851 1553 73.00% 19.25% 7.74%+1.75 +5.5 2
1950-03-12 @ Levski Sofia L 0-151.2 1553 1851 7.74% 19.25% 73.00%-1.75 -5.5 0
1950-03-12 CSKA Sofia L 0-152.4 1497 1725 18.88% 19.77% 61.35%-1.01 -12.5 0
1950-03-12 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 1-052.4 1725 1497 61.35% 19.77% 18.88%+1.01 +12.5 2
1950-03-12 Lokomotiv Sofia D 0-068.9 1553 1725 24.58% 19.90% 55.52%-0.72 +4.5 1
1950-03-12 @ Torpedo Pleven D 0-068.9 1725 1553 55.52% 19.90% 24.58%+0.72 -4.5 1
1950-03-17 Spartak Varna L 0-256.0 1573 1548 50.51% 20.01% 29.48%+0.32 -53.9 2
1950-03-17 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia W 2-056.0 1548 1573 29.48% 20.01% 50.51%-0.32 +53.9 2
1950-03-18 Torpedo Pleven W 4-047.0 1533 1558 43.92% 20.04% 36.04%+0.05 +77.1 2
1950-03-18 @ Akademik Sofia L 0-447.0 1558 1533 36.04% 20.04% 43.92%-0.05 -77.2 1
1950-03-19 Stroitel Sofia D 0-069.6 1738 1598 62.73% 19.82% 17.45%+0.92 -6.8 3
1950-03-19 @ CSKA Sofia D 0-069.6 1598 1738 17.45% 19.82% 62.73%-0.92 +6.8 3
1950-03-19 Levski Sofia L 0-446.1 1564 1857 13.77% 19.56% 66.66%-1.35 -33.6 0
1950-03-19 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 4-046.1 1857 1564 66.66% 19.56% 13.77%+1.35 +33.6 4
1950-03-19 Marek Dupnitsa L 0-167.2 1720 1484 69.77% 19.51% 10.72%+1.42 -39.4 1
1950-03-19 @ Lokomotiv Sofia W 1-067.2 1484 1720 10.72% 19.51% 69.77%-1.42 +39.4 2
1950-03-23 CSKA Sofia W 1-054.5 1890 1731 64.40% 19.77% 15.84%+1.02 +10.7 6
1950-03-23 @ Levski Sofia L 0-154.5 1731 1890 15.84% 19.77% 64.40%-1.02 -10.7 3
1950-03-25 Lokomotiv Sofia W 3-162.3 1605 1681 36.55% 20.02% 43.42%-0.22 +41.0 5
1950-03-25 @ Stroitel Sofia L 1-362.3 1681 1605 43.42% 20.02% 36.55%+0.22 -40.9 1
1950-03-26 Akademik Sofia L 1-453.6 1524 1610 35.14% 20.02% 44.84%-0.27 -48.8 2
1950-03-26 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 4-153.6 1610 1524 44.84% 20.02% 35.14%+0.27 +48.8 4
1950-03-26 Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 1-266.0 1602 1531 55.89% 19.96% 24.16%+0.55 -29.6 2
1950-03-26 @ Spartak Varna W 2-166.0 1531 1602 24.16% 19.96% 55.89%-0.55 +29.6 2
1950-03-26 Cerveno Zname Sofia W 3-045.4 1480 1519 41.92% 20.04% 38.04%-0.02 +61.7 3
1950-03-26 @ Torpedo Pleven L 0-345.4 1519 1480 38.04% 20.04% 41.92%+0.02 -61.7 2
1950-03-30 Stroitel Sofia L 1-267.5 1659 1645 49.01% 20.02% 30.97%+0.25 -26.2 4
1950-03-30 @ Akademik Sofia W 2-167.5 1645 1659 30.97% 20.02% 49.01%-0.25 +26.2 7
1950-04-01 CSKA Sofia D 1-173.1 1572 1720 27.28% 19.94% 52.78%-0.59 +3.3 3
1950-04-01 @ Spartak Varna D 1-173.1 1720 1572 52.78% 19.94% 27.28%+0.59 -3.3 4
1950-04-02 Lokomotiv Plovdiv D 1-165.7 1457 1560 32.99% 20.00% 47.01%-0.36 +1.8 3
1950-04-02 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia D 1-165.7 1560 1457 47.01% 20.00% 32.99%+0.36 -1.8 3
1950-04-02 Marek Dupnitsa W 2-044.6 1542 1475 55.49% 19.96% 24.55%+0.54 +29.6 5
1950-04-02 @ Torpedo Pleven L 0-244.6 1475 1542 24.55% 19.96% 55.49%-0.54 -29.5 2
1950-04-06 Akademik Sofia D 0-070.9 1901 1633 71.54% 19.39% 9.07%+1.59 -9.8 7
1950-04-06 @ Levski Sofia D 0-070.9 1633 1901 9.07% 19.39% 71.54%-1.59 +9.8 5
1950-04-09 CSKA Sofia L 1-260.2 1558 1717 26.10% 19.93% 53.98%-0.65 -15.5 3
1950-04-09 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 2-160.2 1717 1558 53.98% 19.93% 26.10%+0.65 +15.5 6
1950-04-09 Cerveno Zname Sofia L 1-351.5 1445 1459 45.35% 20.03% 34.61%+0.11 -42.5 2
1950-04-09 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 3-151.5 1459 1445 34.61% 20.03% 45.35%-0.11 +42.5 5
1950-04-09 Lokomotiv Sofia W 4-371.0 1575 1640 38.17% 20.03% 41.80%-0.16 +21.2 5
1950-04-09 @ Spartak Varna L 3-471.0 1640 1575 41.80% 20.03% 38.17%+0.16 -21.2 1
1950-04-09 Torpedo Pleven D 0-068.3 1672 1572 58.98% 19.91% 21.12%+0.71 -5.6 8
1950-04-09 @ Stroitel Sofia D 0-068.3 1572 1672 21.12% 19.91% 58.98%-0.71 +5.6 6
1950-04-13 CSKA Sofia L 0-152.6 1502 1732 18.68% 19.76% 61.56%-1.03 -12.4 5
1950-04-13 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia W 1-052.6 1732 1502 61.56% 19.76% 18.68%+1.03 +12.4 8
1950-04-15 Spartak Varna L 1-267.7 1643 1596 53.06% 19.99% 26.95%+0.43 -28.2 5
1950-04-15 @ Akademik Sofia W 2-167.7 1596 1643 26.95% 19.99% 53.06%-0.43 +28.2 7
1950-04-16 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 1-052.5 1619 1543 56.45% 19.95% 23.60%+0.58 +15.1 3
1950-04-16 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-152.5 1543 1619 23.60% 19.95% 56.45%-0.58 -15.2 3
1950-04-16 Stroitel Sofia D 0-063.7 1403 1666 15.93% 19.66% 64.40%-1.20 +7.3 3
1950-04-16 @ Marek Dupnitsa D 0-063.7 1666 1403 64.40% 19.66% 15.93%+1.20 -7.3 9
1950-04-16 Levski Sofia D 1-174.6 1577 1891 12.35% 19.48% 68.17%-1.46 +7.7 7
1950-04-16 @ Torpedo Pleven D 1-174.6 1891 1577 68.17% 19.48% 12.35%+1.46 -7.7 8
1950-04-20 Cerveno Zname Sofia W 6-248.1 1659 1489 65.18% 19.74% 15.08%+1.07 +25.9 11
1950-04-20 @ Stroitel Sofia L 2-648.1 1489 1659 15.08% 19.74% 65.18%-1.07 -25.9 5
1950-04-22 Lokomotiv Sofia W 2-159.5 1745 1634 60.03% 19.88% 20.08%+0.76 +12.4 10
1950-04-22 @ CSKA Sofia L 1-259.5 1634 1745 20.08% 19.88% 60.03%-0.76 -12.4 3
1950-04-23 Marek Dupnitsa W 3-042.4 1884 1410 78.71% 18.28% 3.01%+2.66 +5.9 10
1950-04-23 @ Levski Sofia L 0-342.4 1410 1884 3.01% 18.28% 78.71%-2.66 -5.9 3
1950-04-23 Akademik Sofia W 1-058.3 1528 1614 35.15% 20.02% 44.83%-0.27 +25.8 5
1950-04-23 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 0-158.3 1614 1528 44.83% 20.02% 35.15%+0.27 -25.8 5
1950-04-23 Torpedo Pleven W 3-156.2 1625 1585 52.26% 20.00% 27.74%+0.39 +28.4 9
1950-04-23 @ Spartak Varna L 1-356.2 1585 1625 27.74% 20.00% 52.26%-0.39 -28.4 7
1950-04-27 Akademik Sofia L 1-272.7 1757 1589 65.11% 19.74% 15.15%+1.07 -34.5 10
1950-04-27 @ CSKA Sofia W 2-172.7 1589 1757 15.15% 19.74% 65.11%-1.07 +34.5 7
1950-04-29 Lokomotiv Sofia W 2-055.8 1463 1622 26.12% 19.93% 53.96%-0.65 +57.3 7
1950-04-29 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia L 0-255.8 1622 1463 53.96% 19.93% 26.12%+0.65 -57.3 3
1950-04-30 Stroitel Sofia D 0-070.9 1890 1685 67.76% 19.63% 12.61%+1.26 -8.5 11
1950-04-30 @ Levski Sofia D 0-070.9 1685 1890 12.61% 19.63% 67.76%-1.26 +8.5 12
1950-04-30 Torpedo Pleven W 1-053.9 1554 1557 46.83% 20.03% 33.14%+0.17 +20.1 7
1950-04-30 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 0-153.9 1557 1554 33.14% 20.03% 46.83%-0.17 -20.1 7
1950-04-30 Marek Dupnitsa W 3-039.0 1653 1404 70.49% 19.47% 10.05%+1.49 +19.3 11
1950-04-30 @ Spartak Varna L 0-339.0 1404 1653 10.05% 19.47% 70.49%-1.49 -19.3 3
1950-05-04 Cerveno Zname Sofia W 3-044.4 1881 1521 75.49% 18.95% 5.56%+2.07 +10.9 13
1950-05-04 @ Levski Sofia L 0-344.4 1521 1881 5.56% 18.95% 75.49%-2.07 -10.9 7
1950-05-06 Akademik Sofia L 1-262.4 1564 1623 39.04% 20.03% 40.92%-0.13 -21.7 3
1950-05-06 @ Lokomotiv Sofia W 2-162.4 1623 1564 40.92% 20.03% 39.04%+0.13 +21.7 9
1950-05-07 Torpedo Pleven W 1-051.6 1723 1536 66.45% 19.69% 13.86%+1.16 +9.5 12
1950-05-07 @ CSKA Sofia L 0-151.6 1536 1723 13.86% 19.69% 66.45%-1.16 -9.5 7
1950-05-07 Marek Dupnitsa D 0-059.6 1574 1385 66.64% 19.68% 13.68%+1.17 -8.1 8
1950-05-07 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv D 0-059.6 1385 1574 13.68% 19.68% 66.64%-1.17 +8.1 4
1950-05-07 Stroitel Sofia L 1-266.7 1672 1693 44.40% 20.04% 35.57%+0.07 -24.1 11
1950-05-07 @ Spartak Varna W 2-166.7 1693 1672 35.57% 20.04% 44.40%-0.07 +24.1 14
1950-05-10 Lokomotiv Sofia W 1-050.7 1892 1543 75.10% 19.01% 5.90%+2.01 +4.2 15
1950-05-10 @ Levski Sofia L 0-150.7 1543 1892 5.90% 19.01% 75.10%-2.01 -4.2 3
1950-05-11 Cerveno Zname Sofia L 1-268.5 1645 1510 62.31% 19.83% 17.86%+0.89 -33.0 9
1950-05-11 @ Akademik Sofia W 2-168.5 1510 1645 17.86% 19.83% 62.31%-0.89 +33.0 9
1950-05-13 Marek Dupnitsa W 3-040.0 1732 1393 74.72% 19.06% 6.22%+1.96 +12.2 14
1950-05-13 @ CSKA Sofia L 0-340.0 1393 1732 6.22% 19.06% 74.72%-1.96 -12.2 4
1950-05-14 Stroitel Sofia W 2-168.4 1566 1717 26.87% 19.94% 53.19%-0.61 +28.3 10
1950-05-14 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 1-268.4 1717 1566 53.19% 19.94% 26.87%+0.61 -28.3 14
1950-05-14 Torpedo Pleven W 2-048.4 1538 1527 48.74% 20.02% 31.24%+0.24 +36.2 5
1950-05-14 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-248.4 1527 1538 31.24% 20.02% 48.74%-0.24 -36.2 7
1950-05-14 Levski Sofia W 4-380.3 1648 1896 17.19% 19.71% 63.10%-1.12 +30.9 13
1950-05-14 @ Spartak Varna L 3-480.3 1896 1648 63.10% 19.71% 17.19%+1.12 -30.9 15
1950-05-18 CSKA Sofia W 1-061.4 1689 1744 39.54% 20.03% 40.43%-0.11 +23.7 16
1950-05-18 @ Stroitel Sofia L 0-161.4 1744 1689 40.43% 20.03% 39.54%+0.11 -23.7 14
1950-05-20 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 5-253.1 1865 1594 71.70% 19.37% 8.92%+1.60 +12.6 17
1950-05-20 @ Levski Sofia L 2-553.1 1594 1865 8.92% 19.37% 71.70%-1.60 -12.6 10
1950-05-21 Lokomotiv Sofia L 1-249.6 1381 1575 22.24% 19.86% 57.91%-0.83 -13.6 4
1950-05-21 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 2-149.6 1575 1381 57.91% 19.86% 22.24%+0.83 +13.6 7
1950-05-21 Cerveno Zname Sofia D 0-067.9 1679 1543 62.41% 19.83% 17.76%+0.90 -6.7 14
1950-05-21 @ Spartak Varna D 0-067.9 1543 1679 17.76% 19.83% 62.41%-0.90 +6.7 10
1950-05-21 Akademik Sofia D 3-377.1 1491 1612 30.61% 19.98% 49.41%-0.45 +1.5 8
1950-05-21 @ Torpedo Pleven D 3-377.1 1612 1491 49.41% 19.98% 30.61%+0.45 -1.5 10
1950-06-08 Torpedo Pleven W 2-045.8 1549 1492 54.34% 19.98% 25.68%+0.48 +30.7 12
1950-06-08 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia L 0-245.8 1492 1549 25.68% 19.98% 54.34%-0.48 -30.7 8
1950-06-09 Marek Dupnitsa W 8-137.7 1610 1367 70.17% 19.49% 10.34%+1.46 +36.1 12
1950-06-09 @ Akademik Sofia L 1-837.7 1367 1610 10.34% 19.49% 70.17%-1.46 -36.1 4
1950-06-10 Stroitel Sofia L 0-253.7 1588 1713 30.19% 19.98% 49.83%-0.47 -35.2 7
1950-06-10 @ Lokomotiv Sofia W 2-053.7 1713 1588 49.83% 19.98% 30.19%+0.47 +35.1 18
1950-06-11 Levski Sofia D 0-070.8 1721 1878 26.25% 19.93% 53.83%-0.64 +4.0 15
1950-06-11 @ CSKA Sofia D 0-070.8 1878 1721 53.83% 19.93% 26.25%+0.64 -4.0 18
1950-06-11 Spartak Varna L 1-456.2 1581 1672 34.55% 20.01% 45.44%-0.29 -48.1 10
1950-06-11 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 4-156.2 1672 1581 45.44% 20.01% 34.55%+0.29 +48.1 16
1950-06-15 Akademik Sofia L 1-368.1 1748 1647 59.10% 19.90% 21.00%+0.71 -54.2 18
1950-06-15 @ Stroitel Sofia W 3-168.1 1647 1748 21.00% 19.90% 59.10%-0.71 +54.2 14
1950-06-18 Spartak Varna W 4-157.4 1725 1720 47.79% 20.03% 32.18%+0.20 +45.4 17
1950-06-18 @ CSKA Sofia L 1-457.4 1720 1725 32.18% 20.03% 47.79%-0.20 -45.4 16
1950-06-18 Cerveno Zname Sofia W 3-264.8 1533 1580 40.73% 20.04% 39.23%-0.06 +20.7 12
1950-06-18 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv L 2-364.8 1580 1533 39.23% 20.04% 40.73%+0.06 -20.7 12
1950-06-18 Torpedo Pleven L 1-440.7 1331 1462 29.44% 19.97% 50.58%-0.50 -42.2 4
1950-06-18 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 4-140.7 1462 1331 50.58% 19.97% 29.44%+0.50 +42.2 10
1950-06-22 Levski Sofia L 0-157.0 1701 1874 24.44% 19.90% 55.66%-0.72 -15.6 14
1950-06-22 @ Akademik Sofia W 1-057.0 1874 1701 55.66% 19.90% 24.44%+0.72 +15.6 20
1950-06-23 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 2-156.4 1770 1554 68.52% 19.59% 11.89%+1.32 +7.8 19
1950-06-23 @ CSKA Sofia L 1-256.4 1554 1770 11.89% 19.59% 68.52%-1.32 -7.8 12
1950-06-24 Marek Dupnitsa W 2-142.0 1560 1289 71.66% 19.38% 8.97%+1.60 +6.0 14
1950-06-24 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia L 1-242.0 1289 1560 8.97% 19.38% 71.66%-1.60 -6.0 4
1950-07-01 Spartak Varna L 0-156.1 1553 1675 30.50% 19.98% 49.52%-0.46 -18.8 7
1950-07-01 @ Lokomotiv Sofia W 1-056.1 1675 1553 49.52% 19.98% 30.50%+0.46 +18.8 18
1950-07-06 Cerveno Zname Sofia L 0-169.0 1778 1565 68.27% 19.60% 12.13%+1.30 -38.5 19
1950-07-06 @ CSKA Sofia W 1-069.0 1565 1778 12.13% 19.60% 68.27%-1.30 +38.5 16
1950-07-09 Torpedo Pleven W 3-151.4 1890 1504 76.35% 18.81% 4.85%+2.20 +5.7 22
1950-07-09 @ Levski Sofia L 1-351.4 1504 1890 4.85% 18.81% 76.35%-2.20 -5.7 10
1950-07-09 Lokomotiv Sofia D 0-064.0 1546 1534 48.77% 20.02% 31.21%+0.24 -2.5 13
1950-07-09 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv D 0-064.0 1534 1546 31.21% 20.02% 48.77%-0.24 +2.5 8
1950-07-09 Akademik Sofia L 1-364.8 1694 1685 48.38% 20.02% 31.60%+0.23 -44.9 18
1950-07-09 @ Spartak Varna W 3-164.8 1685 1694 31.60% 20.02% 48.38%-0.23 +44.9 16
1950-07-10 Marek Dupnitsa W 3-034.0 1694 1283 77.10% 18.67% 4.24%+2.33 +8.3 20
1950-07-10 @ Stroitel Sofia L 0-334.0 1283 1694 4.24% 18.67% 77.10%-2.33 -8.3 4
1950-08-05 CSKA Sofia L 1-452.5 1537 1739 21.35% 19.83% 58.82%-0.88 -32.1 8
1950-08-05 @ Lokomotiv Sofia W 4-152.5 1739 1537 58.82% 19.83% 21.35%+0.88 +32.1 21
1950-08-06 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 6-250.3 1730 1544 66.47% 19.69% 13.84%+1.16 +23.9 18
1950-08-06 @ Akademik Sofia L 2-650.3 1544 1730 13.84% 19.69% 66.47%-1.16 -23.9 13
1950-08-06 Levski Sofia L 1-347.0 1275 1895 2.41% 17.74% 79.85%-3.07 -2.8 4
1950-08-06 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 3-147.0 1895 1275 79.85% 17.74% 2.41%+3.07 +2.8 24
1950-08-06 Spartak Varna L 2-362.1 1498 1649 26.97% 19.94% 53.09%-0.61 -15.2 10
1950-08-06 @ Torpedo Pleven W 3-262.1 1649 1498 53.09% 19.94% 26.97%+0.61 +15.2 20
1950-09-07 CSKA Sofia W 1-060.2 1754 1771 44.88% 20.04% 35.08%+0.09 +21.1 20
1950-09-07 @ Akademik Sofia L 0-160.2 1771 1754 35.08% 20.04% 44.88%-0.09 -21.1 21
1950-09-09 Cerveno Zname Sofia W 2-162.4 1505 1604 33.45% 20.01% 46.54%-0.34 +25.1 10
1950-09-09 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 1-262.4 1604 1505 46.54% 20.01% 33.45%+0.34 -25.1 16
1950-09-10 Spartak Varna L 0-633.4 1272 1664 8.23% 19.14% 72.63%-1.87 -30.4 4
1950-09-10 @ Marek Dupnitsa W 6-033.4 1664 1272 72.63% 19.14% 8.23%+1.87 +30.4 22
1950-09-13 Levski Sofia D 1-174.9 1702 1898 22.02% 19.85% 58.13%-0.84 +4.7 21
1950-09-13 @ Stroitel Sofia D 1-174.9 1898 1702 58.13% 19.85% 22.02%+0.84 -4.7 25
1950-09-30 Stroitel Sofia L 1-358.2 1579 1707 29.77% 19.97% 50.26%-0.49 -30.1 16
1950-09-30 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia W 3-158.2 1707 1579 50.26% 19.97% 29.77%+0.49 +30.1 23
1950-10-18 Stroitel Sofia L 0-151.7 1483 1737 16.69% 19.69% 63.61%-1.15 -11.2 10
1950-10-18 @ Torpedo Pleven W 1-051.7 1737 1483 63.61% 19.69% 16.69%+1.15 +11.2 25
1950-10-22 Lokomotiv Plovdiv W 1-052.4 1241 1520 14.81% 19.61% 65.57%-1.27 +36.8 6
1950-10-22 @ Marek Dupnitsa L 0-152.4 1520 1241 65.57% 19.61% 14.81%+1.27 -36.8 13
1950-10-29 Lokomotiv Plovdiv D 2-268.1 1472 1483 45.75% 20.03% 34.22%+0.12 -1.1 11
1950-10-29 @ Torpedo Pleven D 2-268.1 1483 1472 34.22% 20.03% 45.75%-0.12 +1.1 14
1950-11-02 Levski Sofia L 2-456.8 1530 1893 9.57% 19.27% 71.16%-1.72 -9.8 10
1950-11-02 @ Lokomotiv Sofia W 4-256.8 1893 1530 71.16% 19.27% 9.57%+1.72 +9.8 27
1950-11-02 Spartak Varna W 3-051.2 1748 1694 53.91% 19.98% 26.11%+0.46 +45.2 27
1950-11-02 @ Stroitel Sofia L 0-351.2 1694 1748 26.11% 19.98% 53.91%-0.46 -45.2 22
1950-11-04 Lokomotiv Sofia W 1-050.8 1775 1520 70.84% 19.44% 9.72%+1.52 +6.8 22
1950-11-04 @ Akademik Sofia L 0-150.8 1520 1775 9.72% 19.44% 70.84%-1.52 -6.8 10
1950-11-05 Levski Sofia L 0-248.7 1549 1903 10.04% 19.32% 70.64%-1.67 -13.2 16
1950-11-05 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia W 2-048.7 1903 1549 70.64% 19.32% 10.04%+1.67 +13.2 29
1950-11-05 CSKA Sofia D 0-068.0 1471 1750 14.69% 19.61% 65.70%-1.28 +7.8 12
1950-11-05 @ Torpedo Pleven D 0-068.0 1750 1471 65.70% 19.61% 14.69%+1.28 -7.8 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1950-03-19 10.72% Marek Dupnitsa 1484 1 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 1720 0
2 1950-07-06 12.13% Cerveno Zname Sofia 1565 1 @ CSKA Sofia 1778 0
3 1950-10-22 14.81% @ Marek Dupnitsa 1241 1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1520 0
4 1950-04-27 15.15% Akademik Sofia 1589 2 @ CSKA Sofia 1757 1
5 1950-05-14 17.19% @ Spartak Varna 1648 4 Levski Sofia 1896 3
6 1950-05-11 17.86% Cerveno Zname Sofia 1510 2 @ Akademik Sofia 1645 1
7 1950-06-15 21.00% Akademik Sofia 1647 3 @ Stroitel Sofia 1748 1
8 1950-03-26 24.16% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1531 2 @ Spartak Varna 1602 1
9 1950-04-29 26.12% @ Cerveno Zname Sofia 1463 2 Lokomotiv Sofia 1622 0
10 1950-05-14 26.87% @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1566 2 Stroitel Sofia 1717 1
11 1950-04-15 26.95% Spartak Varna 1596 2 @ Akademik Sofia 1643 1
12 1950-03-17 29.48% Spartak Varna 1548 2 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia 1573 0
13 1950-03-30 30.97% Stroitel Sofia 1645 2 @ Akademik Sofia 1659 1
14 1950-07-09 31.60% Akademik Sofia 1685 3 @ Spartak Varna 1694 1
15 1950-09-09 33.45% @ Lokomotiv Sofia 1505 2 Cerveno Zname Sofia 1604 1
16 1950-04-09 34.61% Cerveno Zname Sofia 1459 3 @ Marek Dupnitsa 1445 1
17 1950-04-23 35.15% @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1528 1 Akademik Sofia 1614 0
18 1950-05-07 35.57% Stroitel Sofia 1693 2 @ Spartak Varna 1672 1
19 1950-03-25 36.55% @ Stroitel Sofia 1605 3 Lokomotiv Sofia 1681 1
20 1950-04-09 38.17% @ Spartak Varna 1575 4 Lokomotiv Sofia 1640 3
21 1950-03-11 39.48% @ Stroitel Sofia 1553 2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1609 0
22 1950-05-18 39.54% @ Stroitel Sofia 1689 1 CSKA Sofia 1744 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-03-18 77.16 @ Akademik Sofia 4 1533 43.92% Torpedo Pleven 0 1558 36.04% 20.04%
2 1950-03-26 61.69 @ Torpedo Pleven 3 1480 41.92% Cerveno Zname Sofia 0 1519 38.04% 20.04%
3 1950-04-29 57.28 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia 2 1463 26.12% Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1622 53.96% 19.93%
4 1950-06-15 54.18 Akademik Sofia 3 1647 21.00% @ Stroitel Sofia 1 1748 59.10% 19.90%
5 1950-03-17 53.93 Spartak Varna 2 1548 29.48% @ Cerveno Zname Sofia 0 1573 50.51% 20.01%
6 1950-03-26 48.78 Akademik Sofia 4 1610 44.84% @ Marek Dupnitsa 1 1524 35.14% 20.02%
7 1950-06-11 48.11 Spartak Varna 4 1672 45.44% @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1 1581 34.55% 20.01%
8 1950-06-18 45.41 @ CSKA Sofia 4 1725 47.79% Spartak Varna 1 1720 32.18% 20.03%
9 1950-11-02 45.23 @ Stroitel Sofia 3 1748 53.91% Spartak Varna 0 1694 26.11% 19.98%
10 1950-07-09 44.94 Akademik Sofia 3 1685 31.60% @ Spartak Varna 1 1694 48.38% 20.02%
11 1950-03-11 44.65 @ Stroitel Sofia 2 1553 39.48% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1609 40.49% 20.03%
12 1950-04-09 42.48 Cerveno Zname Sofia 3 1459 34.61% @ Marek Dupnitsa 1 1445 45.35% 20.03%
13 1950-06-18 42.17 Torpedo Pleven 4 1462 50.58% @ Marek Dupnitsa 1 1331 29.44% 19.97%
14 1950-03-25 40.95 @ Stroitel Sofia 3 1605 36.55% Lokomotiv Sofia 1 1681 43.42% 20.02%
15 1950-03-19 39.41 Marek Dupnitsa 1 1484 10.72% @ Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1720 69.77% 19.51%
16 1950-07-06 38.49 Cerveno Zname Sofia 1 1565 12.13% @ CSKA Sofia 0 1778 68.27% 19.60%
17 1950-10-22 36.85 @ Marek Dupnitsa 1 1241 14.81% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1520 65.57% 19.61%
18 1950-05-14 36.17 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1538 48.74% Torpedo Pleven 0 1527 31.24% 20.02%
19 1950-06-09 36.09 @ Akademik Sofia 8 1610 70.17% Marek Dupnitsa 1 1367 10.34% 19.49%
20 1950-06-10 35.15 Stroitel Sofia 2 1713 49.83% @ Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1588 30.19% 19.98%
21 1950-04-27 34.52 Akademik Sofia 2 1589 15.15% @ CSKA Sofia 1 1757 65.11% 19.74%
22 1950-03-19 33.62 Levski Sofia 4 1857 66.66% @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1564 13.77% 19.56%
23 1950-05-11 32.99 Cerveno Zname Sofia 2 1510 17.86% @ Akademik Sofia 1 1645 62.31% 19.83%
24 1950-08-05 32.07 CSKA Sofia 4 1739 58.82% @ Lokomotiv Sofia 1 1537 21.35% 19.83%
25 1950-05-14 30.91 @ Spartak Varna 4 1648 17.19% Levski Sofia 3 1896 63.10% 19.71%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-05-14 80.3 @ Spartak Varna 4 1648 17.19% Levski Sofia 3 1896 63.10% 19.71%
2 1950-05-21 77.1 @ Torpedo Pleven 3 1491 30.61% Akademik Sofia 3 1612 49.41% 19.98%
3 1950-09-13 74.9 @ Stroitel Sofia 1 1702 22.02% Levski Sofia 1 1898 58.13% 19.85%
4 1950-04-16 74.6 @ Torpedo Pleven 1 1577 12.35% Levski Sofia 1 1891 68.17% 19.48%
5 1950-04-01 73.1 @ Spartak Varna 1 1572 27.28% CSKA Sofia 1 1720 52.78% 19.94%
6 1950-04-27 72.7 Akademik Sofia 2 1589 15.15% @ CSKA Sofia 1 1757 65.11% 19.74%
7 1950-04-09 71.0 @ Spartak Varna 4 1575 38.17% Lokomotiv Sofia 3 1640 41.80% 20.03%
8 1950-04-06 70.9 @ Levski Sofia 0 1901 71.54% Akademik Sofia 0 1633 9.07% 19.39%
9 1950-04-30 70.9 @ Levski Sofia 0 1890 67.76% Stroitel Sofia 0 1685 12.61% 19.63%
10 1950-06-11 70.8 @ CSKA Sofia 0 1721 26.25% Levski Sofia 0 1878 53.83% 19.93%
11 1950-03-19 69.6 @ CSKA Sofia 0 1738 62.73% Stroitel Sofia 0 1598 17.45% 19.82%
12 1950-07-06 69.0 Cerveno Zname Sofia 1 1565 12.13% @ CSKA Sofia 0 1778 68.27% 19.60%
13 1950-03-12 68.9 @ Torpedo Pleven 0 1553 24.58% Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1725 55.52% 19.90%
14 1950-05-11 68.5 Cerveno Zname Sofia 2 1510 17.86% @ Akademik Sofia 1 1645 62.31% 19.83%
15 1950-05-14 68.4 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 1566 26.87% Stroitel Sofia 1 1717 53.19% 19.94%
16 1950-04-09 68.3 @ Stroitel Sofia 0 1672 58.98% Torpedo Pleven 0 1572 21.12% 19.91%
17 1950-06-15 68.1 Akademik Sofia 3 1647 21.00% @ Stroitel Sofia 1 1748 59.10% 19.90%
18 1950-10-29 68.1 @ Torpedo Pleven 2 1472 45.75% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 1483 34.22% 20.03%
19 1950-11-05 68.0 @ Torpedo Pleven 0 1471 14.69% CSKA Sofia 0 1750 65.70% 19.61%
20 1950-05-21 67.9 @ Spartak Varna 0 1679 62.41% Cerveno Zname Sofia 0 1543 17.76% 19.83%
21 1950-04-15 67.7 Spartak Varna 2 1596 26.95% @ Akademik Sofia 1 1643 53.06% 19.99%
22 1950-03-30 67.5 Stroitel Sofia 2 1645 30.97% @ Akademik Sofia 1 1659 49.01% 20.02%
23 1950-03-19 67.2 Marek Dupnitsa 1 1484 10.72% @ Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1720 69.77% 19.51%
24 1950-05-07 66.7 Stroitel Sofia 2 1693 35.57% @ Spartak Varna 1 1672 44.40% 20.04%
25 1950-03-26 66.0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 1531 24.16% @ Spartak Varna 1 1602 55.89% 19.96%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-09-10 33.4 Spartak Varna 6 1664 72.63% @ Marek Dupnitsa 0 1272 8.23% 19.14%
2 1950-07-10 34.0 @ Stroitel Sofia 3 1694 77.10% Marek Dupnitsa 0 1283 4.24% 18.67%
3 1950-06-09 37.7 @ Akademik Sofia 8 1610 70.17% Marek Dupnitsa 1 1367 10.34% 19.49%
4 1950-04-30 39.0 @ Spartak Varna 3 1653 70.49% Marek Dupnitsa 0 1404 10.05% 19.47%
5 1950-05-13 40.0 @ CSKA Sofia 3 1732 74.72% Marek Dupnitsa 0 1393 6.22% 19.06%
6 1950-06-18 40.7 Torpedo Pleven 4 1462 50.58% @ Marek Dupnitsa 1 1331 29.44% 19.97%
7 1950-06-24 42.0 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia 2 1560 71.66% Marek Dupnitsa 1 1289 8.97% 19.38%
8 1950-04-23 42.4 @ Levski Sofia 3 1884 78.71% Marek Dupnitsa 0 1410 3.01% 18.28%
9 1950-05-04 44.4 @ Levski Sofia 3 1881 75.49% Cerveno Zname Sofia 0 1521 5.56% 18.95%
10 1950-04-02 44.6 @ Torpedo Pleven 2 1542 55.49% Marek Dupnitsa 0 1475 24.55% 19.96%
11 1950-03-26 45.4 @ Torpedo Pleven 3 1480 41.92% Cerveno Zname Sofia 0 1519 38.04% 20.04%
12 1950-06-08 45.8 @ Cerveno Zname Sofia 2 1549 54.34% Torpedo Pleven 0 1492 25.68% 19.98%
13 1950-03-19 46.1 Levski Sofia 4 1857 66.66% @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 1564 13.77% 19.56%
14 1950-03-18 47.0 @ Akademik Sofia 4 1533 43.92% Torpedo Pleven 0 1558 36.04% 20.04%
15 1950-08-06 47.0 Levski Sofia 3 1895 79.85% @ Marek Dupnitsa 1 1275 2.41% 17.74%
16 1950-04-20 48.1 @ Stroitel Sofia 6 1659 65.18% Cerveno Zname Sofia 2 1489 15.08% 19.74%
17 1950-05-14 48.4 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1538 48.74% Torpedo Pleven 0 1527 31.24% 20.02%
18 1950-11-05 48.7 Levski Sofia 2 1903 70.64% @ Cerveno Zname Sofia 0 1549 10.04% 19.32%
19 1950-05-21 49.6 Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1575 57.91% @ Marek Dupnitsa 1 1381 22.24% 19.86%
20 1950-08-06 50.3 @ Akademik Sofia 6 1730 66.47% Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 1544 13.84% 19.69%
21 1950-05-10 50.7 @ Levski Sofia 1 1892 75.10% Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1543 5.90% 19.01%
22 1950-11-04 50.8 @ Akademik Sofia 1 1775 70.84% Lokomotiv Sofia 0 1520 9.72% 19.44%
23 1950-03-12 51.2 @ Levski Sofia 1 1851 73.00% Spartak Varna 0 1553 7.74% 19.25%
24 1950-11-02 51.2 @ Stroitel Sofia 3 1748 53.91% Spartak Varna 0 1694 26.11% 19.98%
25 1950-07-09 51.4 @ Levski Sofia 3 1890 76.35% Torpedo Pleven 1 1504 4.85% 18.81%