1953-54 1st Division Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Koge BK

23 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Koge BK

4.29 points above expected

23 points · 18.71 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

B.93

2.20 points below expected

15 points · 17.20 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Koge BK	18	10	3	5	23	45	34	+11	18.7	+4.29
2	KB Copenhagen	18	7	6	5	20	27	24	+3	19.0	+1.02
3	AB Gladsaxe	18	8	3	7	19	30	22	+8	18.4	+0.56
4	Frem	18	6	6	6	18	29	29	0	17.6	+0.35
5	Skovshoved	18	7	4	7	18	30	31	-1	18.2	-0.21
6	Odense	18	7	4	7	18	33	38	-5	18.2	-0.20
7	Aarhus GF	18	7	3	8	17	31	31	0	18.3	-1.34
8	B 1903	18	5	6	7	16	25	28	-3	17.1	-1.15
9	Esbjerg	18	6	4	8	16	26	35	-9	17.1	-1.11
10	B.93	18	5	5	8	15	28	32	-4	17.2	-2.20

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
KB Copenhagen	1507	20	18.98	+1.02	67.3%	6	13	17	19	21	25	32
Koge BK	1501	23	18.71	+4.29	92.0%	5	13	16	19	21	24	32
AB Gladsaxe	1501	19	18.44	+0.56	61.8%	7	13	16	18	21	24	31
Aarhus GF	1501	17	18.34	-1.34	41.0%	6	13	16	18	21	24	32
Skovshoved	1487	18	18.21	-0.21	53.2%	6	13	16	18	21	24	31
Odense	1482	18	18.20	-0.20	52.7%	7	12	16	18	21	24	29
Frem	1479	18	17.65	+0.35	60.1%	3	12	15	18	20	23	30
B.93	1475	15	17.20	-2.20	31.3%	5	12	15	17	20	23	29
B 1903	1471	16	17.15	-1.15	42.4%	5	12	15	17	20	23	29
Esbjerg	1467	16	17.11	-1.11	42.7%	6	11	15	17	19	23	30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	AG	B1	B.9	ESB	FRE	KC	KB	ODE	SKO
AB Gladsaxe	—	2-0-0 2.62	0-0-2 2.90	1-0-1 2.85	1-1-0 2.79	1-1-0 2.77	0-1-1 2.57	0-0-2 2.65	1-0-1 2.68	2-0-0 2.65
Aarhus GF	0-0-2 2.68	—	1-1-0 2.84	1-1-0 2.82	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.78	1-0-1 2.51	0-0-2 2.62	1-0-1 2.63	1-1-0 2.68
B 1903	2-0-0 2.42	0-1-1 2.48	—	1-1-0 2.66	0-1-1 2.67	1-1-0 2.58	0-0-2 2.41	0-0-2 2.42	1-1-0 2.51	0-1-1 2.50
B.93	1-0-1 2.47	0-1-1 2.49	0-1-1 2.65	—	2-0-0 2.67	1-0-1 2.58	0-1-1 2.37	0-1-1 2.44	1-0-1 2.46	0-1-1 2.52
Esbjerg	0-1-1 2.52	1-0-1 2.46	1-1-0 2.64	0-0-2 2.64	—	0-2-0 2.55	1-0-1 2.39	1-0-1 2.38	1-0-1 2.51	1-0-1 2.47
Frem	0-1-1 2.55	1-0-1 2.53	0-1-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.73	0-2-0 2.76	—	1-1-0 2.44	1-0-1 2.48	1-1-0 2.57	1-0-1 2.56
KB Copenhagen	1-1-0 2.74	1-0-1 2.80	2-0-0 2.91	1-1-0 2.96	1-0-1 2.94	0-1-1 2.88	—	0-2-0 2.68	0-1-1 2.78	1-0-1 2.75
Koge BK	2-0-0 2.66	2-0-0 2.69	2-0-0 2.90	1-1-0 2.87	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 2.84	0-2-0 2.63	—	1-0-1 2.75	0-0-2 2.74
Odense	1-0-1 2.63	1-0-1 2.68	0-1-1 2.80	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.81	0-1-1 2.74	1-1-0 2.53	1-0-1 2.57	—	1-1-0 2.67
Skovshoved	0-0-2 2.66	0-1-1 2.63	1-1-0 2.81	1-1-0 2.80	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.75	1-0-1 2.56	2-0-0 2.57	0-1-1 2.64	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	6.11%	7.78%	1.11%	—	0.56%	18.89%
1	6.11%	11.11%	6.67%	5.00%	3.33%	—	32.22%
2	7.78%	6.67%	5.56%	3.33%	1.11%	1.11%	25.56%
3	1.11%	5.00%	3.33%	4.44%	0.56%	0.56%	15.00%
4	—	3.33%	1.11%	0.56%	—	0.56%	5.56%
5+	0.56%	—	1.11%	0.56%	0.56%	—	2.78%
Total	18.89%	32.22%	25.56%	15.00%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.69
Mean allowed	1.69
StdDev scored	1.42
StdDev allowed	1.42
Mean total goals/game	3.38
Correlation (home vs away score)	0.157
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	27.78%	22.22%	16.67%	—	—	100%

AB Gladsaxe — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	1.22
StdDev scored	1.28
StdDev allowed	1.11
Mean total goals/game	2.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.069
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	33.33%	38.89%	5.56%	—	5.56%	100%

Aarhus GF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.72
Mean allowed	1.72
StdDev scored	1.41
StdDev allowed	1.78
Mean total goals/game	3.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.203
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	50.00%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	44.44%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

B 1903 — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.39
Mean allowed	1.56
StdDev scored	1.09
StdDev allowed	1.04
Mean total goals/game	2.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.098
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	33.33%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

B.93 — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.56
Mean allowed	1.78
StdDev scored	1.25
StdDev allowed	1.40
Mean total goals/game	3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.026
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	38.89%	33.33%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Esbjerg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.44
Mean allowed	1.94
StdDev scored	1.20
StdDev allowed	1.30
Mean total goals/game	3.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.171
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
3	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	38.89%	16.67%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Frem — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	1.61
StdDev scored	0.98
StdDev allowed	1.20
Mean total goals/game	3.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.215
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	33.33%	16.67%	22.22%	—	—	100%

KB Copenhagen — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	1.33
StdDev scored	1.15
StdDev allowed	1.14
Mean total goals/game	2.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.225
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
Total	33.33%	11.11%	27.78%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Koge BK — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.50
Mean allowed	1.89
StdDev scored	2.38
StdDev allowed	1.94
Mean total goals/game	4.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.357
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	55.56%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Odense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.83
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	1.58
StdDev allowed	1.91
Mean total goals/game	3.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.124
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Skovshoved — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	1.72
StdDev scored	1.37
StdDev allowed	1.07
Mean total goals/game	3.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.253
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Koge BK	23	18.7	+4.29
2	KB Copenhagen	20	19.0	+1.02
3	AB Gladsaxe	19	18.4	+0.56
4	Frem	18	17.6	+0.35
5	Odense	18	18.2	-0.20

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	B.93	15	17.2	-2.20
2	Aarhus GF	17	18.3	-1.34
3	B 1903	16	17.1	-1.15
4	Esbjerg	16	17.1	-1.11
5	Skovshoved	18	18.2	-0.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Koge BK	5	Oct 18 – Mar 28	1 in 182
2	Skovshoved	3	Sep 19 – Oct 11	1 in 30
3	AB Gladsaxe	3	Apr 25 – May 2	1 in 27
4	Esbjerg	2	May 9 – May 14	1 in 12
5	Frem	2	Apr 3 – Apr 11	1 in 11

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	B.93	5	Aug 22 – Oct 10	1 in 211
2	Koge BK	3	Apr 18 – May 2	1 in 39
3	AB Gladsaxe	3	Apr 10 – Apr 18	1 in 35
4	Aarhus GF	3	Aug 23 – Sep 20	1 in 35
5	Odense	3	Apr 4 – Apr 15	1 in 34

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	B.93	7	Mar 28 – May 2	1 in 21
2	Odense	7	Sep 27 – Mar 28	1 in 15
3	Frem	6	Nov 1 – Apr 16	1 in 12
4	AB Gladsaxe	6	Sep 6 – Nov 1	1 in 11
5	KB Copenhagen	6	Apr 11 – May 8	1 in 9

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	B 1903	7	Sep 5 – Nov 15	1 in 13
2	Aarhus GF	5	Aug 23 – Oct 11	1 in 8
3	B.93	5	Aug 22 – Oct 10	1 in 7
4	KB Copenhagen	4	Nov 15 – Apr 11	1 in 6
5	Odense	4	Apr 25 – May 14	1 in 5

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Koge BK	15.31%	13.08%	11.77%	11.36%	10.42%	9.18%	8.54%	8.03%	6.70%	5.61%
KB Copenhagen	15.18%	13.33%	12.38%	11.18%	10.29%	9.33%	8.78%	8.38%	6.19%	4.96%
AB Gladsaxe	13.33%	12.43%	11.75%	10.17%	10.20%	9.93%	9.29%	8.57%	7.57%	6.76%
Frem	8.12%	8.52%	8.79%	9.88%	10.44%	10.73%	10.63%	11.01%	10.67%	11.21%
Skovshoved	10.25%	10.42%	10.55%	10.51%	10.11%	10.05%	10.30%	9.54%	9.83%	8.44%
Odense	9.44%	10.47%	10.57%	10.33%	9.94%	9.97%	10.25%	9.57%	9.86%	9.60%
Aarhus GF	11.73%	10.48%	10.77%	10.48%	10.24%	10.12%	9.73%	9.41%	9.20%	7.84%
B 1903	5.65%	7.37%	8.17%	8.77%	9.28%	10.64%	10.91%	11.42%	13.18%	14.61%
Esbjerg	5.55%	6.60%	7.13%	8.35%	9.16%	10.34%	10.90%	12.13%	13.51%	16.33%
B.93	5.44%	7.30%	8.12%	8.97%	9.92%	9.71%	10.67%	11.94%	13.29%	14.64%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
KB Copenhagen	95.0%	5.0%
Koge BK	94.4%	5.6%
AB Gladsaxe	93.2%	6.8%
Aarhus GF	92.2%	7.8%
Skovshoved	91.6%	8.4%
Odense	90.4%	9.6%
Frem	88.8%	11.2%
B 1903	85.4%	14.6%
B.93	85.4%	14.6%
Esbjerg	83.7%	16.3%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1953-08-19	Frem	L 1-3	1505	1477	36.9%	34.0%	29.2%	-3.1	0
1953-08-19	@ KB Copenhagen	W 3-1	1477	1505	29.2%	34.0%	36.9%	+3.1	3
1953-08-22	B 1903	L 0-2	1481	1474	33.7%	34.5%	31.7%	-3.4	0
1953-08-22	@ B.93	W 2-0	1474	1481	31.7%	34.5%	33.7%	+3.4	3
1953-08-23	Odense	L 1-3	1489	1489	32.7%	34.6%	32.7%	-2.9	0
1953-08-23	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 3-1	1489	1489	32.7%	34.6%	32.7%	+2.9	3
1953-08-23	Esbjerg	W 4-2	1502	1478	36.2%	34.2%	29.7%	+2.4	3
1953-08-23	@ KB Copenhagen	L 2-4	1478	1502	29.7%	34.2%	36.2%	-2.4	0
1953-08-23	Aarhus GF	W 8-4	1489	1500	31.2%	34.5%	34.4%	+4.0	3
1953-08-23	@ Koge BK	L 4-8	1500	1489	34.4%	34.5%	31.2%	-4.0	0
1953-08-24	Skovshoved	L 2-3	1480	1490	31.4%	34.5%	34.1%	-1.6	3
1953-08-24	@ Frem	W 3-2	1490	1480	34.1%	34.5%	31.4%	+1.6	3
1953-09-05	Frem	D 0-0	1477	1479	32.5%	34.6%	33.0%	+0.0	4
1953-09-05	@ B 1903	D 0-0	1479	1477	33.0%	34.6%	32.5%	-0.0	4
1953-09-06	Esbjerg	L 1-2	1496	1476	35.7%	34.2%	30.0%	-1.8	0
1953-09-06	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1476	1496	30.0%	34.2%	35.7%	+1.8	3
1953-09-06	Skovshoved	W 2-1	1486	1491	31.9%	34.5%	33.5%	+1.7	3
1953-09-06	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1491	1486	33.5%	34.5%	31.9%	-1.7	3
1953-09-06	Koge BK	D 2-2	1504	1493	34.3%	34.5%	31.2%	-0.0	4
1953-09-06	@ KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1493	1504	31.2%	34.5%	34.3%	+0.0	4
1953-09-06	B.93	W 3-2	1492	1477	34.8%	34.4%	30.8%	+1.5	6
1953-09-06	@ Odense	L 2-3	1477	1492	30.8%	34.4%	34.8%	-1.5	0
1953-09-19	B.93	W 1-0	1489	1476	34.7%	34.4%	30.9%	+1.7	6
1953-09-19	@ Skovshoved	L 0-1	1476	1489	30.9%	34.4%	34.7%	-1.7	0
1953-09-20	AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1478	1487	31.4%	34.5%	34.1%	+0.0	4
1953-09-20	@ Esbjerg	D 2-2	1487	1478	34.1%	34.5%	31.4%	-0.0	4
1953-09-20	KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1477	1504	29.2%	34.0%	36.7%	-2.7	4
1953-09-20	@ B 1903	W 3-1	1504	1477	36.7%	34.0%	29.2%	+2.7	7
1953-09-20	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1479	1495	30.6%	34.4%	35.0%	+1.8	7
1953-09-20	@ Frem	L 1-2	1495	1479	35.0%	34.4%	30.6%	-1.8	0
1953-09-20	Odense	W 8-2	1493	1493	32.7%	34.6%	32.7%	+6.4	7
1953-09-20	@ Koge BK	L 2-8	1493	1493	32.7%	34.6%	32.7%	-6.4	6
1953-09-26	Skovshoved	L 2-3	1507	1491	35.0%	34.4%	30.6%	-1.7	7
1953-09-26	@ KB Copenhagen	W 3-2	1491	1507	30.6%	34.4%	35.0%	+1.7	9
1953-09-27	B 1903	D 2-2	1493	1474	35.4%	34.3%	30.3%	-0.0	1
1953-09-27	@ Aarhus GF	D 2-2	1474	1493	30.3%	34.3%	35.4%	+0.0	5
1953-09-27	Frem	D 3-3	1487	1481	33.7%	34.5%	31.8%	-0.0	5
1953-09-27	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 3-3	1481	1487	31.8%	34.5%	33.7%	+0.0	8
1953-09-27	Koge BK	L 2-3	1474	1499	29.4%	34.1%	36.5%	-1.5	0
1953-09-27	@ B.93	W 3-2	1499	1474	36.5%	34.1%	29.4%	+1.5	10
1953-09-27	Odense	L 0-2	1478	1487	31.5%	34.5%	34.0%	-3.3	4
1953-09-27	@ Esbjerg	W 2-0	1487	1478	34.0%	34.5%	31.5%	+3.3	9
1953-10-10	B.93	W 2-1	1481	1473	33.9%	34.5%	31.6%	+1.6	11
1953-10-10	@ Frem	L 1-2	1473	1481	31.6%	34.5%	33.9%	-1.6	0
1953-10-11	Aarhus GF	W 2-0	1487	1493	32.0%	34.5%	33.5%	+3.4	8
1953-10-11	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-2	1493	1487	33.5%	34.5%	32.0%	-3.4	1
1953-10-11	Esbjerg	D 1-1	1474	1474	32.7%	34.6%	32.7%	+0.0	6
1953-10-11	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1474	1474	32.7%	34.6%	32.7%	+0.0	5
1953-10-11	Skovshoved	L 1-4	1501	1493	33.9%	34.5%	31.6%	-4.2	10
1953-10-11	@ Koge BK	W 4-1	1493	1501	31.6%	34.5%	33.9%	+4.2	12
1953-10-11	KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1490	1505	30.7%	34.4%	34.9%	+1.9	12
1953-10-11	@ Odense	L 0-1	1505	1490	34.9%	34.4%	30.7%	-1.9	7
1953-10-17	AB Gladsaxe	D 1-1	1503	1491	34.5%	34.4%	31.0%	-0.0	8
1953-10-17	@ KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1491	1503	31.0%	34.4%	34.5%	+0.0	9
1953-10-18	Esbjerg	W 2-0	1471	1474	32.2%	34.6%	33.2%	+3.4	3
1953-10-18	@ B.93	L 0-2	1474	1471	33.2%	34.6%	32.2%	-3.4	5
1953-10-18	Frem	W 1-0	1497	1482	34.8%	34.4%	30.8%	+1.7	13
1953-10-18	@ Koge BK	L 0-1	1482	1497	30.8%	34.4%	34.8%	-1.7	11
1953-10-18	B 1903	D 1-1	1492	1474	35.3%	34.3%	30.4%	-0.1	13
1953-10-18	@ Odense	D 1-1	1474	1492	30.4%	34.3%	35.3%	+0.0	7
1953-10-18	Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1497	1489	33.8%	34.5%	31.6%	-1.7	12
1953-10-18	@ Skovshoved	W 2-1	1489	1497	31.6%	34.5%	33.8%	+1.7	4
1953-10-31	Koge BK	L 0-2	1475	1498	29.6%	34.1%	36.3%	-3.1	7
1953-10-31	@ B 1903	W 2-0	1498	1475	36.3%	34.1%	29.6%	+3.1	16
1953-11-01	KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1491	1503	31.1%	34.5%	34.5%	-3.2	4
1953-11-01	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-0	1503	1491	34.5%	34.5%	31.1%	+3.2	11
1953-11-01	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-5	1474	1491	30.5%	34.4%	35.2%	-7.5	3
1953-11-01	@ B.93	W 5-0	1491	1474	35.2%	34.4%	30.5%	+7.5	12
1953-11-01	Skovshoved	W 4-1	1471	1495	29.5%	34.1%	36.3%	+4.4	8
1953-11-01	@ Esbjerg	L 1-4	1495	1471	36.3%	34.1%	29.5%	-4.4	12
1953-11-01	Odense	D 1-1	1481	1492	31.2%	34.5%	34.4%	+0.0	12
1953-11-01	@ Frem	D 1-1	1492	1481	34.4%	34.5%	31.2%	-0.0	14
1953-11-15	KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1467	1506	27.9%	33.4%	38.8%	+0.1	4
1953-11-15	@ B.93	D 2-2	1506	1467	38.8%	33.4%	27.9%	-0.1	12
1953-11-15	Frem	D 2-2	1475	1481	32.0%	34.5%	33.5%	+0.0	9
1953-11-15	@ Esbjerg	D 2-2	1481	1475	33.5%	34.5%	32.0%	-0.0	13
1953-11-15	AB Gladsaxe	W 1-0	1501	1498	33.2%	34.6%	32.3%	+1.8	19
1953-11-15	@ Koge BK	L 0-1	1498	1501	32.3%	34.6%	33.2%	-1.8	12
1953-11-15	Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1492	1488	33.3%	34.6%	32.1%	+2.9	17
1953-11-15	@ Odense	L 1-3	1488	1492	32.1%	34.6%	33.3%	-2.9	4
1953-11-15	B 1903	W 2-1	1491	1471	35.6%	34.3%	30.1%	+1.6	15
1953-11-15	@ Skovshoved	L 1-2	1471	1491	30.1%	34.3%	35.6%	-1.6	7
1953-11-29	B.93	W 4-2	1485	1467	35.4%	34.3%	30.3%	+2.5	7
1953-11-29	@ Aarhus GF	L 2-4	1467	1485	30.3%	34.3%	35.4%	-2.5	4
1953-11-29	Koge BK	L 2-5	1476	1503	29.1%	34.0%	36.9%	-3.3	9
1953-11-29	@ Esbjerg	W 5-2	1503	1476	36.9%	34.0%	29.1%	+3.3	22
1953-11-29	AB Gladsaxe	W 3-2	1470	1497	29.3%	34.0%	36.7%	+1.7	10
1953-11-29	@ B 1903	L 2-3	1497	1470	36.7%	34.0%	29.3%	-1.7	12
1953-11-29	Odense	D 3-3	1492	1495	32.4%	34.6%	33.0%	+0.0	16
1953-11-29	@ Skovshoved	D 3-3	1495	1492	33.0%	34.6%	32.4%	-0.0	18
1954-03-27	KB Copenhagen	D 3-3	1481	1506	29.4%	34.1%	36.6%	+0.0	14
1954-03-27	@ Frem	D 3-3	1506	1481	36.6%	34.1%	29.4%	-0.0	13
1954-03-28	Koge BK	L 0-2	1487	1507	30.2%	34.3%	35.6%	-3.2	7
1954-03-28	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-0	1507	1487	35.6%	34.3%	30.2%	+3.2	25
1954-03-28	Esbjerg	W 3-0	1495	1472	36.1%	34.2%	29.7%	+4.6	15
1954-03-28	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-3	1472	1495	29.7%	34.2%	36.1%	-4.6	9
1954-03-28	B.93	D 1-1	1472	1464	33.8%	34.5%	31.7%	-0.0	11
1954-03-28	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1464	1472	31.7%	34.5%	33.8%	+0.0	5
1954-03-28	Skovshoved	W 1-0	1495	1492	33.0%	34.6%	32.4%	+1.8	21
1954-03-28	@ Odense	L 0-1	1492	1495	32.4%	34.6%	33.0%	-1.8	16
1954-04-03	Koge BK	W 2-0	1481	1510	29.0%	33.9%	37.1%	+3.6	17
1954-04-03	@ Frem	L 0-2	1510	1481	37.1%	33.9%	29.0%	-3.6	25
1954-04-04	Odense	W 4-1	1464	1496	28.7%	33.8%	37.6%	+4.5	8
1954-04-04	@ B.93	L 1-4	1496	1464	37.6%	33.8%	28.7%	-4.5	21
1954-04-04	B 1903	W 2-1	1468	1472	32.2%	34.6%	33.3%	+1.7	12
1954-04-04	@ Esbjerg	L 1-2	1472	1468	33.3%	34.6%	32.2%	-1.7	11
1954-04-04	Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1506	1484	36.0%	34.2%	29.8%	-5.2	13
1954-04-04	@ KB Copenhagen	W 3-0	1484	1506	29.8%	34.2%	36.0%	+5.2	10
1954-04-10	B 1903	L 1-2	1499	1470	37.2%	33.9%	28.9%	-1.8	15
1954-04-10	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1470	1499	28.9%	33.9%	37.2%	+1.8	14
1954-04-11	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1469	1489	30.0%	34.2%	35.8%	+0.0	9
1954-04-11	@ B.93	D 1-1	1489	1469	35.8%	34.2%	30.0%	-0.1	11
1954-04-11	KB Copenhagen	D 0-0	1506	1501	33.5%	34.5%	32.0%	-0.0	26
1954-04-11	@ Koge BK	D 0-0	1501	1506	32.0%	34.5%	33.5%	+0.0	14
1954-04-11	Frem	L 1-2	1492	1484	33.8%	34.5%	31.6%	-1.7	21
1954-04-11	@ Odense	W 2-1	1484	1492	31.6%	34.5%	33.8%	+1.7	20
1954-04-11	Esbjerg	W 2-0	1491	1469	35.9%	34.2%	29.9%	+3.2	19
1954-04-11	@ Skovshoved	L 0-2	1469	1491	29.9%	34.2%	35.9%	-3.1	12
1954-04-15	Odense	W 3-1	1489	1490	32.6%	34.6%	32.8%	+2.9	14
1954-04-15	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1490	1489	32.8%	34.6%	32.6%	-2.9	21
1954-04-15	B.93	L 0-1	1498	1469	37.0%	33.9%	29.0%	-1.9	15
1954-04-15	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 1-0	1469	1498	29.0%	33.9%	37.0%	+1.9	12
1954-04-15	B 1903	W 3-1	1506	1472	38.0%	33.6%	28.4%	+2.6	29
1954-04-15	@ Koge BK	L 1-3	1472	1506	28.4%	33.6%	38.0%	-2.6	14
1954-04-15	KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1494	1501	31.7%	34.5%	33.8%	-3.3	19
1954-04-15	@ Skovshoved	W 2-0	1501	1494	33.8%	34.5%	31.7%	+3.3	17
1954-04-16	Esbjerg	D 1-1	1486	1466	35.6%	34.3%	30.1%	-0.0	21
1954-04-16	@ Frem	D 1-1	1466	1486	30.1%	34.3%	35.6%	+0.0	13
1954-04-18	KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1496	1504	31.5%	34.5%	34.0%	-1.7	15
1954-04-18	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 1-0	1504	1496	34.0%	34.5%	31.5%	+1.7	20
1954-04-18	Koge BK	W 7-3	1487	1509	29.9%	34.2%	35.9%	+4.4	24
1954-04-18	@ Odense	L 3-7	1509	1487	35.9%	34.2%	29.9%	-4.4	29
1954-04-19	Skovshoved	D 3-3	1471	1491	30.1%	34.3%	35.6%	+0.0	13
1954-04-19	@ B.93	D 3-3	1491	1471	35.6%	34.3%	30.1%	-0.0	20
1954-04-19	Aarhus GF	L 0-2	1466	1492	29.3%	34.0%	36.6%	-3.1	13
1954-04-19	@ Esbjerg	W 2-0	1492	1466	36.6%	34.0%	29.3%	+3.1	17
1954-04-19	B 1903	L 1-4	1486	1469	35.2%	34.3%	30.4%	-4.3	21
1954-04-19	@ Frem	W 4-1	1469	1486	30.4%	34.3%	35.2%	+4.3	17
1954-04-24	Skovshoved	D 1-1	1473	1491	30.4%	34.3%	35.3%	+0.1	18
1954-04-24	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1491	1473	35.3%	34.3%	30.4%	-0.0	21
1954-04-25	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1495	1494	32.9%	34.6%	32.5%	-1.8	17
1954-04-25	@ Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1494	1495	32.5%	34.6%	32.9%	+1.8	18
1954-04-25	Frem	W 2-1	1471	1482	31.2%	34.5%	34.3%	+1.7	16
1954-04-25	@ B.93	L 1-2	1482	1471	34.3%	34.5%	31.2%	-1.7	21
1954-04-25	Odense	D 1-1	1506	1492	34.8%	34.4%	30.8%	-0.0	21
1954-04-25	@ KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1492	1506	30.8%	34.4%	34.8%	+0.0	25
1954-04-25	Esbjerg	L 1-3	1504	1463	39.0%	33.2%	27.7%	-3.2	29
1954-04-25	@ Koge BK	W 3-1	1463	1504	27.7%	33.2%	39.0%	+3.2	16
1954-04-28	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1491	1496	32.0%	34.5%	33.5%	-1.8	21
1954-04-28	@ Skovshoved	W 1-0	1496	1491	33.5%	34.5%	32.0%	+1.8	21
1954-05-02	Frem	W 2-0	1494	1480	34.7%	34.4%	30.8%	+3.2	20
1954-05-02	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-2	1480	1494	30.8%	34.4%	34.7%	-3.2	21
1954-05-02	B.93	L 1-4	1466	1473	31.8%	34.5%	33.6%	-4.0	16
1954-05-02	@ Esbjerg	W 4-1	1473	1466	33.6%	34.5%	31.8%	+4.0	19
1954-05-02	B 1903	W 1-0	1506	1473	37.7%	33.7%	28.6%	+1.6	24
1954-05-02	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1473	1506	28.6%	33.7%	37.7%	-1.6	18
1954-05-02	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-2	1492	1497	31.9%	34.5%	33.5%	-3.3	25
1954-05-02	@ Odense	W 2-0	1497	1492	33.5%	34.5%	31.9%	+3.3	24
1954-05-02	Koge BK	W 4-3	1489	1501	31.0%	34.4%	34.5%	+1.6	24
1954-05-02	@ Skovshoved	L 3-4	1501	1489	34.5%	34.4%	31.0%	-1.6	29
1954-05-08	B.93	W 2-1	1508	1477	37.4%	33.8%	28.8%	+1.5	27
1954-05-08	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1477	1508	28.8%	33.8%	37.4%	-1.5	19
1954-05-09	Koge BK	L 1-2	1501	1499	32.9%	34.6%	32.5%	-1.7	24
1954-05-09	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1499	1501	32.5%	34.6%	32.9%	+1.7	32
1954-05-09	Aarhus GF	L 1-4	1472	1497	29.4%	34.1%	36.5%	-3.8	18
1954-05-09	@ B 1903	W 4-1	1497	1472	36.5%	34.1%	29.4%	+3.8	23
1954-05-09	Esbjerg	L 1-3	1488	1462	36.6%	34.0%	29.3%	-3.1	25
1954-05-09	@ Odense	W 3-1	1462	1488	29.3%	34.0%	36.6%	+3.1	19
1954-05-10	Frem	L 0-2	1490	1477	34.7%	34.4%	30.8%	-3.5	24
1954-05-10	@ Skovshoved	W 2-0	1477	1490	30.8%	34.4%	34.7%	+3.5	24
1954-05-14	Skovshoved	D 1-1	1501	1487	34.7%	34.4%	30.8%	-0.0	24
1954-05-14	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1487	1501	30.8%	34.4%	34.7%	+0.0	25
1954-05-14	KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1465	1509	27.5%	33.1%	39.5%	+2.0	22
1954-05-14	@ Esbjerg	L 0-1	1509	1465	39.5%	33.1%	27.5%	-2.0	27
1954-05-14	Odense	W 3-1	1468	1485	30.4%	34.3%	35.3%	+3.1	21
1954-05-14	@ B 1903	L 1-3	1485	1468	35.3%	34.3%	30.4%	-3.1	25
1954-05-14	AB Gladsaxe	L 2-3	1480	1499	30.2%	34.3%	35.5%	-1.5	24
1954-05-14	@ Frem	W 3-2	1499	1480	35.5%	34.3%	30.2%	+1.5	27
1954-05-14	B.93	D 0-0	1501	1475	36.6%	34.0%	29.3%	-0.1	33
1954-05-14	@ Koge BK	D 0-0	1475	1501	29.3%	34.0%	36.6%	+0.1	20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1954-05-14	27.46%	@ Esbjerg	1465	1	KB Copenhagen	1509	0
2	1954-04-25	27.71%	Esbjerg	1463	3	@ Koge BK	1504	1
3	1954-04-04	28.67%	@ B.93	1464	4	Odense	1496	1
4	1954-04-10	28.93%	B 1903	1470	2	@ AB Gladsaxe	1499	1
5	1954-04-03	28.99%	@ Frem	1481	2	Koge BK	1510	0
6	1954-04-15	29.05%	B.93	1469	1	@ AB Gladsaxe	1498	0
7	1953-08-19	29.17%	Frem	1477	3	@ KB Copenhagen	1505	1
8	1953-11-29	29.26%	@ B 1903	1470	3	AB Gladsaxe	1497	2
9	1954-05-09	29.33%	Esbjerg	1462	3	@ Odense	1488	1
10	1953-11-01	29.55%	@ Esbjerg	1471	4	Skovshoved	1495	1
11	1954-04-04	29.81%	Aarhus GF	1484	3	@ KB Copenhagen	1506	0
12	1954-04-18	29.89%	@ Odense	1487	7	Koge BK	1509	3
13	1953-09-06	30.01%	Esbjerg	1476	2	@ Aarhus GF	1496	1
14	1954-05-14	30.38%	@ B 1903	1468	3	Odense	1485	1
15	1954-04-19	30.44%	B 1903	1469	4	@ Frem	1486	1
16	1953-09-20	30.59%	@ Frem	1479	2	Aarhus GF	1495	1
17	1953-09-26	30.61%	Skovshoved	1491	3	@ KB Copenhagen	1507	2
18	1953-10-11	30.69%	@ Odense	1490	1	KB Copenhagen	1505	0
19	1954-05-10	30.84%	Frem	1477	2	@ Skovshoved	1490	0
20	1954-05-02	31.03%	@ Skovshoved	1489	4	Koge BK	1501	3
21	1953-08-23	31.16%	@ Koge BK	1489	8	Aarhus GF	1500	4
22	1954-04-25	31.25%	@ B.93	1471	2	Frem	1482	1
23	1953-10-11	31.59%	Skovshoved	1493	4	@ Koge BK	1501	1
24	1953-10-18	31.63%	Aarhus GF	1489	2	@ Skovshoved	1497	1
25	1954-04-11	31.63%	Frem	1484	2	@ Odense	1492	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1953-11-01	7.49	AB Gladsaxe	5	1491	35.16%	@ B.93	0	1474	30.49%
2	1953-09-20	6.38	@ Koge BK	8	1493	32.70%	Odense	2	1493	32.73%
3	1954-04-04	5.19	Aarhus GF	3	1484	29.81%	@ KB Copenhagen	0	1506	36.00%
4	1954-03-28	4.56	@ AB Gladsaxe	3	1495	36.10%	Esbjerg	0	1472	29.74%
5	1954-04-04	4.50	@ B.93	4	1464	28.67%	Odense	1	1496	37.56%
6	1953-11-01	4.40	@ Esbjerg	4	1471	29.55%	Skovshoved	1	1495	36.34%
7	1954-04-18	4.37	@ Odense	7	1487	29.89%	Koge BK	3	1509	35.89%
8	1954-04-19	4.32	B 1903	4	1469	30.44%	@ Frem	1	1486	35.22%
9	1953-10-11	4.21	Skovshoved	4	1493	31.59%	@ Koge BK	1	1501	33.89%
10	1954-05-02	4.04	B.93	4	1473	33.63%	@ Esbjerg	1	1466	31.83%
11	1953-08-23	4.01	@ Koge BK	8	1489	31.16%	Aarhus GF	4	1500	34.38%
12	1954-05-09	3.82	Aarhus GF	4	1497	36.47%	@ B 1903	1	1472	29.45%
13	1954-04-03	3.64	@ Frem	2	1481	28.99%	Koge BK	0	1510	37.10%
14	1954-05-10	3.49	Frem	2	1477	30.84%	@ Skovshoved	0	1490	34.74%
15	1953-08-22	3.43	B 1903	2	1474	31.73%	@ B.93	0	1481	33.74%
16	1953-10-11	3.41	@ AB Gladsaxe	2	1487	31.96%	Aarhus GF	0	1493	33.49%
17	1953-10-18	3.40	@ B.93	2	1471	32.21%	Esbjerg	0	1474	33.23%
18	1954-05-02	3.30	AB Gladsaxe	2	1497	33.54%	@ Odense	0	1492	31.91%
19	1954-04-15	3.29	KB Copenhagen	2	1501	33.75%	@ Skovshoved	0	1494	31.72%
20	1953-11-29	3.28	Koge BK	5	1503	36.89%	@ Esbjerg	2	1476	29.14%
21	1953-09-27	3.27	Odense	2	1487	34.03%	@ Esbjerg	0	1478	31.47%
22	1953-11-01	3.25	KB Copenhagen	2	1503	34.48%	@ Aarhus GF	0	1491	31.06%
23	1954-04-25	3.25	Esbjerg	3	1463	27.71%	@ Koge BK	1	1504	39.04%
24	1954-05-02	3.23	@ Aarhus GF	2	1494	34.74%	Frem	0	1480	30.84%
25	1954-03-28	3.17	Koge BK	2	1507	35.56%	@ Aarhus GF	0	1487	30.16%