1895-96 Football League First Division Season

240 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Aston Villa

45 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1893-94

Relegated

Small Heath

via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Aston Villa

10.52 points above expected

45 points · 34.48 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

West Brom

7.69 points below expected

19 points · 26.69 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Aston Villa	30	20	5	5	45	78	45	+33	34.5	+10.52
2	Derby County	30	17	7	6	41	68	35	+33	31.6	+9.43
3	Everton	30	16	7	7	39	66	43	+23	33.1	+5.88
4	Bolton Wanderers	30	16	5	9	37	49	37	+12	30.4	+6.62
5	Sunderland	30	15	7	8	37	52	41	+11	32.8	+4.22
6	Stoke City	30	15	0	15	30	56	47	+9	30.5	-0.46
7	The Wednesday	30	12	5	13	29	44	53	-9	28.6	+0.37
8	Blackburn Rovers	30	12	5	13	29	40	50	-10	30.5	-1.46
9	Preston North End	30	11	6	13	28	44	48	-4	30.3	-2.30
10	Burnley	30	10	7	13	27	48	44	+4	29.2	-2.22
11	Bury	30	12	3	15	27	50	54	-4	29.1	-2.09
12	Sheffield United	30	10	6	14	26	40	50	-10	29.1	-3.12
13	Nottingham Forest	30	11	3	16	25	42	57	-15	29.2	-4.25
14	Wolverhampton	30	10	1	19	21	61	65	-4	28.3	-7.33
15	Small Heath Birmingham	30	8	4	18	20	39	79	-40	26.1	-6.12
16	West Brom	30	6	7	17	19	30	59	-29	26.7	-7.69

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Aston Villa	2059	45	34.48	+10.52	100.0%	27	29	31	34	37	40	45
Everton	2021	39	33.12	+5.88	93.0%	24	27	31	33	35	40	43
Sunderland	2000	37	32.78	+4.22	88.0%	24	25	30	33	35	39	41
Derby County	1999	41	31.57	+9.43	98.0%	23	25	28	31	34	38	46
Bolton Wanderers	1942	37	30.38	+6.62	95.0%	20	23	27	31	33	37	40
Preston North End	1923	28	30.30	-2.30	27.0%	18	22	28	30	33	37	42
Burnley	1918	27	29.22	-2.22	32.0%	19	23	26	29	32	35	41
Stoke City	1912	30	30.46	-0.46	50.0%	20	23	27	30	33	37	39
Sheffield United	1897	26	29.12	-3.12	28.0%	19	21	26	29	32	36	42
Bury	1889	27	29.09	-2.09	30.0%	22	22	27	29	31	35	36
Blackburn Rovers	1881	29	30.46	-1.46	33.0%	18	23	28	31	33	37	38
The Wednesday	1864	29	28.63	+0.37	56.0%	16	21	25	28	32	37	41
Nottingham Forest	1864	25	29.25	-4.25	19.0%	18	22	26	30	32	35	38
Wolverhampton	1863	21	28.33	-7.33	2.0%	19	22	25	29	31	34	39
West Brom	1813	19	26.69	-7.69	1.0%	14	21	24	27	29	32	36
Small Heath Birmingham	1799	20	26.12	-6.12	12.0%	17	19	23	26	28	33	38

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AV	BR	BW	BUR	BUR	DC	EVE	NF	PNE	SU	SHB	SC	SUN	TW	WB	WOL
Aston Villa	—	1-1-0 3.02	1-1-0 3.28	2-0-0 3.35	1-0-1 3.55	1-1-0 3.11	1-0-1 2.94	2-0-0 3.63	1-0-1 3.28	0-1-1 3.26	2-0-0 3.40	2-0-0 3.37	1-0-1 2.95	2-0-0 3.62	1-1-0 3.31	2-0-0 3.55
Blackburn Rovers	0-1-1 2.72	—	1-1-0 2.87	1-0-1 2.91	0-0-2 3.05	0-1-1 2.45	1-0-1 2.62	1-0-1 3.05	1-1-0 2.87	1-1-0 3.00	1-0-1 3.32	1-0-1 2.80	0-0-2 2.70	1-0-1 3.06	1-0-1 3.25	2-0-0 3.10
Bolton Wanderers	0-1-1 2.46	0-1-1 2.87	—	2-0-0 2.90	1-0-1 3.11	1-0-1 2.67	1-1-0 2.65	1-1-0 3.07	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 3.15	2-0-0 3.27	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.67	1-1-0 3.05	2-0-0 3.32	1-0-1 3.31
Burnley	0-0-2 2.39	1-0-1 2.83	0-0-2 2.84	—	2-0-0 3.06	0-1-1 2.57	0-1-1 2.60	0-1-1 2.92	1-1-0 2.75	1-1-0 2.95	0-1-1 3.23	1-0-1 2.75	0-1-1 2.55	1-0-1 2.85	2-0-0 3.00	1-0-1 3.01
Bury	1-0-1 2.19	2-0-0 2.70	1-0-1 2.63	0-0-2 2.69	—	0-0-2 2.58	0-1-1 2.20	1-0-1 2.85	0-1-1 2.59	1-0-1 2.72	0-0-2 3.11	1-0-1 2.55	0-1-1 2.45	2-0-0 2.73	2-0-0 2.99	1-0-1 3.01
Derby County	0-1-1 2.63	1-1-0 3.29	1-0-1 3.06	1-1-0 3.16	2-0-0 3.16	—	1-1-0 2.79	2-0-0 2.97	1-0-1 3.18	0-1-1 3.34	2-0-0 3.55	1-0-1 2.89	1-1-0 2.52	2-0-0 3.00	1-1-0 3.66	1-0-1 3.03
Everton	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 3.12	0-1-1 3.09	1-1-0 3.15	1-1-0 3.54	0-1-1 2.95	—	1-0-1 3.10	1-1-0 3.28	2-0-0 3.10	2-0-0 3.64	2-0-0 3.28	1-0-1 2.90	0-1-1 3.48	1-1-0 3.34	2-0-0 3.06
Nottingham Forest	0-0-2 2.11	1-0-1 2.69	0-1-1 2.67	1-1-0 2.82	1-0-1 2.89	0-0-2 2.78	1-0-1 2.64	—	0-0-2 2.71	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 3.05	1-0-1 2.70	1-1-0 2.43	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 3.04	1-0-1 3.01
Preston North End	1-0-1 2.47	0-1-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.83	0-1-1 2.99	1-1-0 3.14	1-0-1 2.56	0-1-1 2.46	2-0-0 3.03	—	1-0-1 3.02	1-0-1 3.25	0-0-2 2.94	1-0-1 2.60	0-1-1 3.14	1-1-0 3.22	1-0-1 3.09
Sheffield United	1-1-0 2.48	0-1-1 2.74	1-0-1 2.59	0-1-1 2.79	1-0-1 3.01	1-1-0 2.41	0-0-2 2.63	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.72	—	1-0-1 3.17	1-0-1 2.84	0-1-1 2.51	0-1-1 2.82	1-0-1 3.12	1-0-1 2.91
Small Heath Birmingham	0-0-2 2.35	1-0-1 2.43	0-0-2 2.48	1-1-0 2.51	2-0-0 2.63	0-0-2 2.19	0-0-2 2.11	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 2.49	1-0-1 2.57	—	0-0-2 2.75	0-0-2 2.03	0-1-1 2.62	0-2-0 2.83	1-0-1 2.67
Stoke City	0-0-2 2.38	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.80	1-0-1 2.99	1-0-1 3.19	1-0-1 2.85	0-0-2 2.47	1-0-1 3.04	2-0-0 2.80	1-0-1 2.90	2-0-0 2.99	—	1-0-1 2.53	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 3.11	1-0-1 2.95
Sunderland	1-0-1 2.79	2-0-0 3.04	1-0-1 3.07	1-1-0 3.19	1-1-0 3.29	0-1-1 3.22	1-0-1 2.83	0-1-1 3.31	1-0-1 3.13	1-1-0 3.23	2-0-0 3.72	1-0-1 3.21	—	1-0-1 3.31	1-1-0 3.60	1-1-0 3.32
The Wednesday	0-0-2 2.12	1-0-1 2.67	0-1-1 2.69	1-0-1 2.89	0-0-2 3.01	0-0-2 2.74	1-1-0 2.26	1-0-1 2.92	1-1-0 2.60	1-1-0 2.92	1-1-0 3.12	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.43	—	2-0-0 3.00	1-0-1 2.90
West Brom	0-1-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.50	0-0-2 2.43	0-0-2 2.75	0-0-2 2.74	0-1-1 2.08	0-1-1 2.40	1-0-1 2.70	0-1-1 2.52	1-0-1 2.62	0-2-0 2.91	1-0-1 2.63	0-1-1 2.15	0-0-2 2.74	—	2-0-0 2.64
Wolverhampton	0-0-2 2.20	0-0-2 2.64	1-0-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.71	0-0-2 2.68	1-0-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.65	1-0-1 2.83	1-0-1 3.07	1-0-1 2.79	0-1-1 2.42	1-0-1 2.84	0-0-2 3.10	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	7.08%	4.58%	3.33%	1.46%	2.08%	21.88%
1	7.08%	9.17%	8.96%	4.17%	2.29%	1.46%	33.12%
2	4.58%	8.96%	3.75%	2.29%	0.62%	1.46%	21.67%
3	3.33%	4.17%	2.29%	—	1.25%	0.62%	11.67%
4	1.46%	2.29%	0.62%	1.25%	—	0.21%	5.83%
5+	2.08%	1.46%	1.46%	0.62%	0.21%	—	5.83%
Total	21.88%	33.12%	21.67%	11.67%	5.83%	5.83%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.68
Mean allowed	1.68
StdDev scored	1.52
StdDev allowed	1.52
Mean total goals/game	3.36
Correlation (home vs away score)	0.001
Sample size (games)	240

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
1	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
2	10.00%	13.33%	10.00%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	10.00%	—	—	3.33%	3.33%	16.67%
4	—	10.00%	—	6.67%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	10.00%
Total	16.67%	43.33%	23.33%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

Aston Villa — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.60
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	1.52
StdDev allowed	1.20
Mean total goals/game	4.10
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.322
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	—	10.00%	6.67%	—	3.33%	23.33%
1	10.00%	13.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	33.33%
2	6.67%	10.00%	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	30.00%
3	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	23.33%	30.00%	20.00%	16.67%	6.67%	3.33%	100%

Blackburn Rovers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	1.67
StdDev scored	0.99
StdDev allowed	1.47
Mean total goals/game	3.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.228
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	10.00%	6.67%	—	—	3.33%	23.33%
1	10.00%	10.00%	3.33%	—	—	—	23.33%
2	3.33%	16.67%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	30.00%
3	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
4	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	23.33%	50.00%	16.67%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

Bolton Wanderers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.63
Mean allowed	1.23
StdDev scored	1.27
StdDev allowed	1.17
Mean total goals/game	2.87
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.173
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
1	3.33%	13.33%	13.33%	3.33%	—	10.00%	43.33%
2	10.00%	—	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
3	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	—	13.33%
4	—	—	—	3.33%	—	—	3.33%
5+	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
Total	33.33%	30.00%	16.67%	6.67%	3.33%	10.00%	100%

Burnley — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.60
Mean allowed	1.47
StdDev scored	1.50
StdDev allowed	1.59
Mean total goals/game	3.07
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.136
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	10.00%	3.33%	6.67%	—	6.67%	30.00%
1	6.67%	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	26.67%
2	10.00%	—	—	3.33%	—	—	13.33%
3	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	3.33%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	6.67%
5+	—	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	6.67%
Total	26.67%	26.67%	20.00%	13.33%	3.33%	10.00%	100%

Bury — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	1.80
StdDev scored	1.65
StdDev allowed	1.86
Mean total goals/game	3.47
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.079
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	16.67%
2	6.67%	16.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	36.67%
3	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
4	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
5+	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
Total	26.67%	36.67%	33.33%	—	3.33%	—	100%

Derby County — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.27
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	1.86
StdDev allowed	0.95
Mean total goals/game	3.43
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.183
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	6.67%
1	3.33%	16.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	33.33%
2	6.67%	10.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	23.33%
3	10.00%	—	13.33%	—	3.33%	—	26.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.33%	—	6.67%	—	—	—	10.00%
Total	23.33%	26.67%	36.67%	10.00%	3.33%	—	100%

Everton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.20
Mean allowed	1.43
StdDev scored	1.61
StdDev allowed	1.07
Mean total goals/game	3.63
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.072
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	13.33%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	36.67%
1	3.33%	3.33%	6.67%	6.67%	—	3.33%	23.33%
2	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%	16.67%
3	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
4	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	—	—	6.67%
5+	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	23.33%	30.00%	20.00%	10.00%	3.33%	13.33%	100%

Nottingham Forest — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.40
Mean allowed	1.90
StdDev scored	1.45
StdDev allowed	1.86
Mean total goals/game	3.30
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.214
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	20.00%	—	3.33%	3.33%	—	30.00%
1	10.00%	16.67%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	36.67%
2	—	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	3.33%	13.33%
3	—	—	3.33%	—	—	—	3.33%
4	—	3.33%	—	10.00%	—	—	13.33%
5+	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	16.67%	46.67%	10.00%	16.67%	6.67%	3.33%	100%

Preston North End — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.47
Mean allowed	1.60
StdDev scored	1.57
StdDev allowed	1.33
Mean total goals/game	3.07
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.142
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	13.33%	—	—	3.33%	6.67%	23.33%
1	6.67%	16.67%	10.00%	3.33%	6.67%	—	43.33%
2	10.00%	13.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	26.67%
3	—	—	—	—	3.33%	—	3.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.33%	—	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	20.00%	43.33%	13.33%	3.33%	13.33%	6.67%	100%

Sheffield United — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	1.67
StdDev scored	1.49
StdDev allowed	1.54
Mean total goals/game	3.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.310
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	13.33%	—	3.33%	26.67%
1	10.00%	6.67%	13.33%	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	43.33%
2	—	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	16.67%
3	—	—	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	6.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	3.33%	—	3.33%	—	6.67%
Total	13.33%	16.67%	26.67%	20.00%	10.00%	13.33%	100%

Small Heath Birmingham — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.30
Mean allowed	2.63
StdDev scored	1.32
StdDev allowed	2.11
Mean total goals/game	3.93
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.115
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	10.00%	6.67%	—	3.33%	—	20.00%
1	10.00%	—	13.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	33.33%
2	3.33%	10.00%	—	—	—	6.67%	20.00%
3	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
4	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
5+	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
Total	30.00%	30.00%	20.00%	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	100%

Stoke City — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.87
Mean allowed	1.57
StdDev scored	1.68
StdDev allowed	1.70
Mean total goals/game	3.43
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.324
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	—	3.33%	23.33%
1	6.67%	10.00%	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	26.67%
2	—	20.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	26.67%
3	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	10.00%
4	—	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	10.00%
5+	—	3.33%	—	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	16.67%	53.33%	16.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

Sunderland — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.73
Mean allowed	1.37
StdDev scored	1.60
StdDev allowed	1.16
Mean total goals/game	3.10
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.188
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.33%	6.67%	—	6.67%	3.33%	20.00%
1	10.00%	13.33%	10.00%	10.00%	—	3.33%	46.67%
2	—	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	6.67%
3	13.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	23.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	3.33%	—	—	3.33%
Total	23.33%	26.67%	23.33%	13.33%	6.67%	6.67%	100%

The Wednesday — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.47
Mean allowed	1.77
StdDev scored	1.25
StdDev allowed	1.57
Mean total goals/game	3.23
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.346
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	6.67%	10.00%	10.00%	—	—	36.67%
1	6.67%	10.00%	6.67%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	36.67%
2	—	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	3.33%	10.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	26.67%	23.33%	23.33%	3.33%	6.67%	100%

West Brom — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.00
Mean allowed	1.97
StdDev scored	0.98
StdDev allowed	1.59
Mean total goals/game	2.97
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.199
Games played	30

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	—	10.00%
1	6.67%	—	16.67%	13.33%	6.67%	—	43.33%
2	3.33%	3.33%	3.33%	10.00%	—	3.33%	23.33%
3	—	—	—	—	3.33%	—	3.33%
4	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
5+	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
Total	16.67%	13.33%	26.67%	26.67%	13.33%	3.33%	100%

Wolverhampton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.03
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.79
StdDev allowed	1.39
Mean total goals/game	4.20
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.376
Games played	30

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Aston Villa	45	34.5	+10.52
2	Derby County	41	31.6	+9.43
3	Bolton Wanderers	37	30.4	+6.62
4	Everton	39	33.1	+5.88
5	Sunderland	37	32.8	+4.22

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	West Brom	19	26.7	-7.69
2	Wolverhampton	21	28.3	-7.33
3	Small Heath Birmingham	20	26.1	-6.12
4	Nottingham Forest	25	29.2	-4.25
5	Sheffield United	26	29.1	-3.12

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Everton	9	Nov 2 – Jan 1	1 in 1,373
2	Aston Villa	6	Dec 26 – Jan 25	1 in 105
3	Bolton Wanderers	4	Sep 7 – Sep 28	1 in 60
4	Derby County	5	Sep 28 – Oct 26	1 in 24
5	The Wednesday	4	Oct 5 – Oct 26	1 in 16

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Blackburn Rovers	4	Dec 28 – Jan 11	1 in 114
2	Small Heath Birmingham	6	Sep 2 – Oct 5	1 in 95
3	West Brom	4	Sep 2 – Sep 21	1 in 64
4	Sheffield United	5	Oct 5 – Nov 9	1 in 63
5	Wolverhampton	4	Dec 26 – Jan 18	1 in 29

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Everton	14	Oct 19 – Feb 3	1 in 2,437
2	Aston Villa	10	Dec 26 – Mar 14	1 in 200
3	Blackburn Rovers	6	Nov 2 – Dec 14	1 in 62
4	Bolton Wanderers	9	Jan 1 – Apr 6	1 in 37
5	Derby County	7	Sep 28 – Nov 9	1 in 32

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Burnley	12	Oct 5 – Dec 26	1 in 328
2	Sunderland	5	Sep 9 – Oct 5	1 in 42
3	Small Heath Birmingham	6	Sep 2 – Oct 5	1 in 17
4	The Wednesday	5	Dec 21 – Jan 4	1 in 16
5	Sheffield United	6	Oct 5 – Nov 16	1 in 15

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Aston Villa	30.00%	16.00%	12.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	8.00%	5.00%	5.00%	2.00%	—	—	1.00%	—	—	—
Derby County	14.00%	7.00%	7.00%	9.00%	9.00%	12.00%	2.00%	5.00%	8.00%	5.00%	5.00%	4.00%	3.00%	5.00%	3.00%	2.00%
Everton	16.00%	12.00%	13.00%	11.00%	10.00%	8.00%	3.00%	7.00%	4.00%	6.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—
Bolton Wanderers	3.00%	15.00%	6.00%	3.00%	11.00%	11.00%	5.00%	3.00%	5.00%	4.00%	12.00%	4.00%	6.00%	4.00%	6.00%	2.00%
Sunderland	15.00%	11.00%	8.00%	14.00%	8.00%	5.00%	10.00%	6.00%	6.00%	4.00%	2.00%	3.00%	3.00%	1.00%	4.00%	—
Stoke City	7.00%	7.00%	10.00%	7.00%	8.00%	3.00%	9.00%	8.00%	5.00%	6.00%	5.00%	2.00%	10.00%	5.00%	3.00%	5.00%
The Wednesday	3.00%	4.00%	4.00%	4.00%	8.00%	5.00%	5.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	6.00%	3.00%	7.00%	12.00%	6.00%	12.00%
Blackburn Rovers	1.00%	5.00%	7.00%	9.00%	5.00%	6.00%	10.00%	13.00%	8.00%	4.00%	10.00%	3.00%	7.00%	6.00%	5.00%	1.00%
Preston North End	4.00%	3.00%	8.00%	10.00%	8.00%	4.00%	5.00%	11.00%	6.00%	7.00%	10.00%	9.00%	2.00%	3.00%	7.00%	3.00%
Burnley	3.00%	5.00%	5.00%	5.00%	4.00%	5.00%	10.00%	6.00%	7.00%	6.00%	8.00%	8.00%	10.00%	4.00%	8.00%	6.00%
Bury	—	4.00%	5.00%	3.00%	6.00%	5.00%	6.00%	7.00%	8.00%	10.00%	7.00%	15.00%	9.00%	4.00%	3.00%	8.00%
Sheffield United	2.00%	4.00%	4.00%	6.00%	7.00%	6.00%	9.00%	6.00%	5.00%	7.00%	6.00%	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	7.00%
Nottingham Forest	1.00%	3.00%	6.00%	4.00%	4.00%	13.00%	6.00%	4.00%	7.00%	10.00%	8.00%	6.00%	5.00%	9.00%	9.00%	5.00%
Wolverhampton	1.00%	3.00%	4.00%	3.00%	2.00%	5.00%	6.00%	8.00%	9.00%	12.00%	2.00%	10.00%	3.00%	16.00%	8.00%	8.00%
Small Heath Birmingham	—	1.00%	—	2.00%	2.00%	3.00%	4.00%	1.00%	3.00%	4.00%	8.00%	12.00%	11.00%	9.00%	11.00%	29.00%
West Brom	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%	3.00%	7.00%	6.00%	8.00%	11.00%	14.00%	11.00%	19.00%	12.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Won relegation playoff	Lost relegation playoff
Aston Villa	100%	—	—
Derby County	95.0%	5.0%	—
Everton	99.0%	1.0%	—
Blackburn Rovers	94.0%	4.0%	2.0%
Sunderland	96.0%	2.0%	2.0%
Bolton Wanderers	92.0%	4.0%	4.0%
Preston North End	90.0%	6.0%	4.0%
Stoke City	92.0%	4.0%	4.0%
Burnley	86.0%	8.0%	6.0%
Nottingham Forest	86.0%	8.0%	6.0%
Sheffield United	86.0%	8.0%	6.0%
The Wednesday	82.0%	12.0%	6.0%
Bury	89.0%	4.0%	7.0%
Wolverhampton	84.0%	4.0%	12.0%
West Brom	69.0%	17.0%	14.0%
Small Heath Birmingham	60.0%	17.0%	23.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1895-09-02	West Brom	W 1-0	1972	1903	76.9%	12.7%	10.4%	+1.6	3
1895-09-02	@ Aston Villa	L 0-1	1903	1972	10.4%	12.7%	76.9%	-1.6	0
1895-09-02	The Wednesday	D 2-2	1958	1903	76.0%	12.7%	11.2%	-1.7	1
1895-09-02	@ Everton	D 2-2	1903	1958	11.2%	12.7%	76.0%	+1.7	1
1895-09-02	Small Heath Birmingham	W 2-0	1910	1890	73.7%	12.9%	13.4%	+3.9	3
1895-09-02	@ Sheffield United	L 0-2	1890	1910	13.4%	12.9%	73.7%	-3.9	0
1895-09-02	Bolton Wanderers	W 2-0	1893	1901	71.6%	13.1%	15.4%	+4.5	3
1895-09-02	@ Stoke City	L 0-2	1901	1893	15.4%	13.1%	71.6%	-4.5	0
1895-09-02	Preston North End	W 4-1	1977	1936	75.1%	12.8%	12.1%	+4.3	3
1895-09-02	@ Sunderland	L 1-4	1936	1977	12.1%	12.8%	75.1%	-4.3	0
1895-09-02	Burnley	W 5-1	1889	1904	71.0%	13.1%	15.9%	+7.3	3
1895-09-02	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-5	1904	1889	15.9%	13.1%	71.0%	-7.3	0
1895-09-05	Bury	W 5-0	1912	1878	74.7%	12.9%	12.5%	+8.5	3
1895-09-05	@ Nottingham Forest	L 0-5	1878	1912	12.5%	12.9%	74.7%	-8.5	0
1895-09-07	Small Heath Birmingham	W 7-3	1974	1886	78.0%	12.5%	9.5%	+3.4	6
1895-09-07	@ Aston Villa	L 3-7	1886	1974	9.5%	12.5%	78.0%	-3.4	0
1895-09-07	Bolton Wanderers	L 0-3	1870	1897	70.1%	13.1%	16.8%	-26.2	0
1895-09-07	@ Bury	W 3-0	1897	1870	16.8%	13.1%	70.1%	+26.2	3
1895-09-07	Nottingham Forest	W 6-2	1956	1921	74.8%	12.8%	12.4%	+4.9	4
1895-09-07	@ Everton	L 2-6	1921	1956	12.4%	12.8%	74.8%	-4.9	3
1895-09-07	Wolverhampton	W 4-3	1932	1896	74.8%	12.8%	12.3%	+1.7	3
1895-09-07	@ Preston North End	L 3-4	1896	1932	12.3%	12.8%	74.8%	-1.7	3
1895-09-07	Sheffield United	W 1-0	1905	1914	71.5%	13.1%	15.4%	+2.4	4
1895-09-07	@ The Wednesday	L 0-1	1914	1905	15.4%	13.1%	71.5%	-2.4	3
1895-09-07	Derby County	W 2-1	1897	1896	72.4%	13.0%	14.6%	+2.1	6
1895-09-07	@ Stoke City	L 1-2	1896	1897	14.6%	13.0%	72.4%	-2.1	0
1895-09-07	Blackburn Rovers	W 2-1	1981	1923	76.2%	12.7%	11.1%	+1.6	6
1895-09-07	@ Sunderland	L 1-2	1923	1981	11.1%	12.7%	76.2%	-1.6	0
1895-09-07	Burnley	L 0-2	1901	1897	72.5%	13.0%	14.4%	-18.7	0
1895-09-07	@ West Brom	W 2-0	1897	1901	14.4%	13.0%	72.5%	+18.7	3
1895-09-09	Sunderland	D 0-0	1916	1983	66.5%	13.3%	20.3%	-1.7	4
1895-09-09	@ Burnley	D 0-0	1983	1916	20.3%	13.3%	66.5%	+1.7	7
1895-09-09	Bury	W 3-2	1961	1844	79.5%	12.3%	8.2%	+1.1	7
1895-09-09	@ Everton	L 2-3	1844	1961	8.2%	12.3%	79.5%	-1.1	0
1895-09-14	Stoke City	L 1-2	1883	1899	70.9%	13.1%	16.0%	-9.1	0
1895-09-14	@ Small Heath Birmingham	W 2-1	1899	1883	16.0%	13.1%	70.9%	+9.1	9
1895-09-14	Nottingham Forest	W 2-0	1921	1916	72.6%	13.0%	14.4%	+4.2	3
1895-09-14	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-2	1916	1921	14.4%	13.0%	72.6%	-4.2	3
1895-09-14	Aston Villa	W 2-1	1912	1977	66.6%	13.3%	20.1%	+2.9	6
1895-09-14	@ Sheffield United	L 1-2	1977	1912	20.1%	13.3%	66.6%	-2.9	6
1895-09-14	Preston North End	L 1-2	1882	1934	67.9%	13.2%	18.9%	-8.8	0
1895-09-14	@ West Brom	W 2-1	1934	1882	18.9%	13.2%	67.9%	+8.8	6
1895-09-14	The Wednesday	W 4-0	1894	1907	71.2%	13.1%	15.7%	+8.6	6
1895-09-14	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-4	1907	1894	15.7%	13.1%	71.2%	-8.6	4
1895-09-14	Everton	W 3-1	1923	1962	69.0%	13.2%	17.8%	+4.4	6
1895-09-14	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-3	1962	1923	17.8%	13.2%	69.0%	-4.4	7
1895-09-14	Bury	W 3-0	1914	1843	77.0%	12.6%	10.3%	+4.4	7
1895-09-14	@ Burnley	L 0-3	1843	1914	10.3%	12.6%	77.0%	-4.4	0
1895-09-14	Sunderland	W 2-0	1893	1984	64.1%	13.3%	22.6%	+6.4	3
1895-09-14	@ Derby County	L 0-2	1984	1893	22.6%	13.3%	64.1%	-6.4	7
1895-09-21	Derby County	W 4-1	1974	1900	77.2%	12.6%	10.2%	+3.6	9
1895-09-21	@ Aston Villa	L 1-4	1900	1974	10.2%	12.6%	77.2%	-3.7	3
1895-09-21	Sheffield United	W 1-0	1838	1915	65.6%	13.3%	21.1%	+3.2	3
1895-09-21	@ Bury	L 0-1	1915	1838	21.1%	13.3%	65.6%	-3.2	6
1895-09-21	Small Heath Birmingham	W 3-0	1912	1874	75.0%	12.8%	12.2%	+5.2	6
1895-09-21	@ Nottingham Forest	L 0-3	1874	1912	12.2%	12.8%	75.0%	-5.2	0
1895-09-21	West Brom	W 3-1	1909	1873	74.8%	12.8%	12.4%	+3.1	12
1895-09-21	@ Stoke City	L 1-3	1873	1909	12.4%	12.8%	74.8%	-3.1	0
1895-09-21	Burnley	W 1-0	1928	1918	73.0%	13.0%	14.1%	+2.2	9
1895-09-21	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-1	1918	1928	14.1%	13.0%	73.0%	-2.2	7
1895-09-21	Blackburn Rovers	L 0-2	1958	1925	74.6%	12.9%	12.6%	-19.2	7
1895-09-21	@ Everton	W 2-0	1925	1958	12.6%	12.9%	74.6%	+19.2	6
1895-09-21	Wolverhampton	D 2-2	1978	1903	77.2%	12.6%	10.1%	-1.7	8
1895-09-21	@ Sunderland	D 2-2	1903	1978	10.1%	12.6%	77.2%	+1.7	7
1895-09-28	Preston North End	W 1-0	1916	1942	70.1%	13.1%	16.7%	+2.6	10
1895-09-28	@ Burnley	L 0-1	1942	1916	16.7%	13.1%	70.1%	-2.6	6
1895-09-28	The Wednesday	W 3-1	1896	1898	72.1%	13.0%	14.9%	+3.8	6
1895-09-28	@ Derby County	L 1-3	1898	1896	14.9%	13.0%	72.1%	-3.8	4
1895-09-28	Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1868	1930	67.0%	13.2%	19.7%	-8.6	0
1895-09-28	@ Small Heath Birmingham	W 2-1	1930	1868	19.7%	13.2%	67.0%	+8.6	12
1895-09-28	Aston Villa	D 1-1	1945	1978	69.5%	13.2%	17.3%	-1.8	7
1895-09-28	@ Blackburn Rovers	D 1-1	1978	1945	17.3%	13.2%	69.5%	+1.8	10
1895-09-28	Stoke City	W 1-0	1911	1912	72.2%	13.0%	14.8%	+2.3	9
1895-09-28	@ Sheffield United	L 0-1	1912	1911	14.8%	13.0%	72.2%	-2.3	12
1895-09-28	Nottingham Forest	W 3-1	1870	1917	68.3%	13.2%	18.4%	+4.6	3
1895-09-28	@ West Brom	L 1-3	1917	1870	18.4%	13.2%	68.3%	-4.6	6
1895-09-28	Bury	D 0-0	1976	1841	80.3%	12.2%	7.5%	-2.8	9
1895-09-28	@ Sunderland	D 0-0	1841	1976	7.5%	12.2%	80.3%	+2.8	4
1895-09-28	Everton	L 2-3	1905	1939	69.5%	13.2%	17.4%	-8.5	7
1895-09-28	@ Wolverhampton	W 3-2	1939	1905	17.4%	13.2%	69.5%	+8.5	10
1895-09-30	Everton	W 4-3	1980	1947	74.6%	12.9%	12.5%	+1.7	13
1895-09-30	@ Aston Villa	L 3-4	1947	1980	12.5%	12.9%	74.6%	-1.7	10
1895-09-30	Preston North End	W 2-1	1914	1940	70.1%	13.1%	16.7%	+2.4	12
1895-09-30	@ Sheffield United	L 1-2	1940	1914	16.7%	13.1%	70.1%	-2.4	6
1895-10-05	West Brom	W 5-3	1895	1875	73.7%	12.9%	13.4%	+2.9	7
1895-10-05	@ The Wednesday	L 3-5	1875	1895	13.4%	12.9%	73.7%	-2.9	3
1895-10-05	Derby County	L 2-5	1913	1900	73.2%	13.0%	13.9%	-20.0	6
1895-10-05	@ Nottingham Forest	W 5-2	1900	1913	13.9%	13.0%	73.2%	+20.0	9
1895-10-05	Small Heath Birmingham	W 3-2	1937	1860	77.4%	12.6%	10.0%	+1.4	9
1895-10-05	@ Preston North End	L 2-3	1860	1937	10.0%	12.6%	77.4%	-1.4	0
1895-10-05	Stoke City	W 1-0	1896	1909	71.2%	13.1%	15.7%	+2.4	10
1895-10-05	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-1	1909	1896	15.7%	13.1%	71.2%	-2.4	12
1895-10-05	Sunderland	W 2-1	1982	1973	72.9%	13.0%	14.2%	+2.1	16
1895-10-05	@ Aston Villa	L 1-2	1973	1982	14.2%	13.0%	72.9%	-2.1	9
1895-10-05	Burnley	W 1-0	1943	1919	74.0%	12.9%	13.1%	+2.0	10
1895-10-05	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-1	1919	1943	13.1%	12.9%	74.0%	-2.0	10
1895-10-05	Bury	L 2-4	1938	1844	78.3%	12.5%	9.2%	-15.7	12
1895-10-05	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 4-2	1844	1938	9.2%	12.5%	78.3%	+15.6	7
1895-10-05	Sheffield United	W 5-0	1945	1916	74.4%	12.9%	12.8%	+8.7	13
1895-10-05	@ Everton	L 0-5	1916	1945	12.8%	12.9%	74.4%	-8.7	12
1895-10-07	Sunderland	L 1-2	1907	1971	66.8%	13.3%	20.0%	-8.6	12
1895-10-07	@ Sheffield United	W 2-1	1971	1907	20.0%	13.3%	66.8%	+8.6	12
1895-10-12	Preston North End	W 3-0	1945	1939	72.7%	13.0%	14.3%	+6.0	13
1895-10-12	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-3	1939	1945	14.3%	13.0%	72.7%	-6.0	9
1895-10-12	Stoke City	W 2-1	1920	1907	73.2%	13.0%	13.8%	+2.0	12
1895-10-12	@ Derby County	L 1-2	1907	1920	13.8%	13.0%	73.2%	-2.0	12
1895-10-12	Wolverhampton	W 3-1	1898	1898	72.2%	13.0%	14.8%	+3.7	10
1895-10-12	@ The Wednesday	L 1-3	1898	1898	14.8%	13.0%	72.2%	-3.7	10
1895-10-12	Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1917	1923	71.8%	13.1%	15.2%	-9.2	10
1895-10-12	@ Burnley	W 2-1	1923	1917	15.2%	13.1%	71.8%	+9.2	15
1895-10-12	Small Heath Birmingham	L 4-5	1860	1858	72.4%	13.0%	14.6%	-8.5	7
1895-10-12	@ Bury	W 5-4	1858	1860	14.6%	13.0%	72.4%	+8.5	3
1895-10-12	Aston Villa	D 1-1	1872	1984	61.9%	13.4%	24.8%	-1.2	4
1895-10-12	@ West Brom	D 1-1	1984	1872	24.8%	13.4%	61.9%	+1.2	17
1895-10-12	Everton	W 2-1	1892	1954	67.0%	13.2%	19.8%	+2.8	9
1895-10-12	@ Nottingham Forest	L 1-2	1954	1892	19.8%	13.2%	67.0%	-2.8	13
1895-10-19	Nottingham Forest	W 2-1	1932	1895	74.9%	12.8%	12.3%	+1.8	18
1895-10-19	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1895	1932	12.3%	12.8%	74.9%	-1.8	9
1895-10-19	Burnley	D 1-1	1933	1907	74.1%	12.9%	13.0%	-2.1	10
1895-10-19	@ Preston North End	D 1-1	1907	1933	13.0%	12.9%	74.1%	+2.1	11
1895-10-19	Small Heath Birmingham	W 6-1	1905	1867	75.0%	12.8%	12.2%	+6.9	15
1895-10-19	@ Stoke City	L 1-6	1867	1905	12.2%	12.8%	75.0%	-6.9	3
1895-10-19	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-1	1985	1951	74.7%	12.9%	12.5%	+3.2	20
1895-10-19	@ Aston Villa	L 1-3	1951	1985	12.5%	12.9%	74.7%	-3.2	13
1895-10-19	Bury	W 2-1	1922	1851	77.0%	12.6%	10.4%	+1.5	15
1895-10-19	@ Derby County	L 1-2	1851	1922	10.4%	12.6%	77.0%	-1.5	7
1895-10-19	Sunderland	W 3-0	1901	1980	65.3%	13.3%	21.4%	+8.8	13
1895-10-19	@ The Wednesday	L 0-3	1980	1901	21.4%	13.3%	65.3%	-8.8	12
1895-10-19	Sheffield United	W 4-1	1895	1899	71.9%	13.0%	15.0%	+5.3	13
1895-10-19	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-4	1899	1895	15.0%	13.0%	71.9%	-5.3	12
1895-10-19	West Brom	D 1-1	1951	1871	77.6%	12.6%	9.9%	-2.3	14
1895-10-19	@ Everton	D 1-1	1871	1951	9.9%	12.6%	77.6%	+2.3	5
1895-10-26	The Wednesday	L 2-3	1873	1910	69.2%	13.2%	17.6%	-8.5	5
1895-10-26	@ West Brom	W 3-2	1910	1873	17.6%	13.2%	69.2%	+8.5	16
1895-10-26	Stoke City	W 3-1	1934	1912	73.9%	12.9%	13.2%	+3.4	21
1895-10-26	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-3	1912	1934	13.2%	12.9%	73.9%	-3.4	15
1895-10-26	Wolverhampton	W 5-2	1924	1900	74.0%	12.9%	13.1%	+4.1	18
1895-10-26	@ Derby County	L 2-5	1900	1924	13.1%	12.9%	74.0%	-4.1	13
1895-10-26	Preston North End	L 0-1	1894	1931	69.2%	13.2%	17.6%	-9.5	9
1895-10-26	@ Nottingham Forest	W 1-0	1931	1894	17.6%	13.2%	69.2%	+9.5	13
1895-10-26	Aston Villa	L 1-4	1860	1988	60.0%	13.4%	26.6%	-19.0	3
1895-10-26	@ Small Heath Birmingham	W 4-1	1988	1860	26.6%	13.4%	60.0%	+19.0	23
1895-10-26	Sunderland	L 2-4	1948	1971	70.4%	13.1%	16.5%	-14.1	13
1895-10-26	@ Blackburn Rovers	W 4-2	1971	1948	16.5%	13.1%	70.4%	+14.0	15
1895-10-26	Everton	D 1-1	1909	1949	69.0%	13.2%	17.8%	-1.7	12
1895-10-26	@ Burnley	D 1-1	1949	1909	17.8%	13.2%	69.0%	+1.7	15
1895-11-02	Bolton Wanderers	D 1-1	1919	1937	70.8%	13.1%	16.1%	-1.9	17
1895-11-02	@ The Wednesday	D 1-1	1937	1919	16.1%	13.1%	70.8%	+1.9	22
1895-11-02	West Brom	W 3-0	1850	1865	71.1%	13.1%	15.8%	+6.7	10
1895-11-02	@ Bury	L 0-3	1865	1850	15.8%	13.1%	71.1%	-6.7	5
1895-11-02	Blackburn Rovers	D 1-1	1940	1934	72.7%	13.0%	14.3%	-2.0	14
1895-11-02	@ Preston North End	D 1-1	1934	1940	14.3%	13.0%	72.7%	+2.0	14
1895-11-02	Sheffield United	W 4-0	1909	1893	73.4%	13.0%	13.7%	+7.6	18
1895-11-02	@ Stoke City	L 0-4	1893	1909	13.7%	13.0%	73.4%	-7.6	12
1895-11-02	Burnley	W 5-1	2007	1908	78.6%	12.5%	9.0%	+4.2	26
1895-11-02	@ Aston Villa	L 1-5	1908	2007	9.0%	12.5%	78.6%	-4.2	12
1895-11-02	Derby County	D 2-2	1985	1928	76.2%	12.7%	11.1%	-1.7	16
1895-11-02	@ Sunderland	D 2-2	1928	1985	11.1%	12.7%	76.2%	+1.7	19
1895-11-02	Wolverhampton	W 2-0	1951	1896	76.0%	12.7%	11.2%	+3.3	18
1895-11-02	@ Everton	L 0-2	1896	1951	11.2%	12.7%	76.0%	-3.3	13
1895-11-04	Bolton Wanderers	L 2-3	1858	1939	65.1%	13.3%	21.6%	-8.0	5
1895-11-04	@ West Brom	W 3-2	1939	1858	21.6%	13.3%	65.1%	+8.0	25
1895-11-09	Nottingham Forest	W 1-0	1841	1884	68.7%	13.2%	18.1%	+2.8	6
1895-11-09	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 0-1	1884	1841	18.1%	13.2%	68.7%	-2.8	9
1895-11-09	Wolverhampton	W 3-1	1936	1893	75.3%	12.8%	11.9%	+3.0	17
1895-11-09	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-3	1893	1936	11.9%	12.8%	75.3%	-3.0	13
1895-11-09	The Wednesday	W 6-1	1856	1917	67.1%	13.2%	19.6%	+10.9	13
1895-11-09	@ Bury	L 1-6	1917	1856	19.6%	13.2%	67.1%	-10.9	17
1895-11-09	Bolton Wanderers	W 1-0	1938	1947	71.5%	13.1%	15.4%	+2.4	17
1895-11-09	@ Preston North End	L 0-1	1947	1938	15.4%	13.1%	71.5%	-2.4	25
1895-11-09	Stoke City	W 1-0	1850	1916	66.6%	13.3%	20.2%	+3.1	8
1895-11-09	@ West Brom	L 0-1	1916	1850	20.2%	13.3%	66.6%	-3.1	18
1895-11-09	Burnley	W 5-1	1929	1904	74.1%	12.9%	13.0%	+6.0	22
1895-11-09	@ Derby County	L 1-5	1904	1929	13.0%	12.9%	74.1%	-6.0	12
1895-11-09	Aston Villa	W 2-1	1983	2011	70.0%	13.1%	16.9%	+2.4	19
1895-11-09	@ Sunderland	L 1-2	2011	1983	16.9%	13.1%	70.0%	-2.4	26
1895-11-09	Everton	L 1-2	1886	1954	66.4%	13.3%	20.4%	-8.5	12
1895-11-09	@ Sheffield United	W 2-1	1954	1886	20.4%	13.3%	66.4%	+8.5	21
1895-11-11	Preston North End	W 4-0	1913	1941	70.0%	13.1%	16.8%	+9.2	21
1895-11-11	@ Stoke City	L 0-4	1941	1913	16.8%	13.1%	70.0%	-9.2	17
1895-11-16	West Brom	W 2-0	1881	1853	74.3%	12.9%	12.8%	+3.8	12
1895-11-16	@ Nottingham Forest	L 0-2	1853	1881	12.8%	12.9%	74.3%	-3.7	8
1895-11-16	Derby County	W 2-0	1890	1935	68.5%	13.2%	18.3%	+5.3	16
1895-11-16	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-2	1935	1890	18.3%	13.2%	68.5%	-5.3	22
1895-11-16	Sheffield United	D 2-2	2009	1877	80.2%	12.2%	7.6%	-1.9	27
1895-11-16	@ Aston Villa	D 2-2	1877	2009	7.6%	12.2%	80.2%	+1.9	13
1895-11-16	Stoke City	W 2-1	1906	1922	70.9%	13.1%	16.0%	+2.3	20
1895-11-16	@ The Wednesday	L 1-2	1922	1906	16.0%	13.1%	70.9%	-2.3	21
1895-11-16	Sunderland	W 1-0	1963	1986	70.4%	13.1%	16.5%	+2.5	24
1895-11-16	@ Everton	L 0-1	1986	1963	16.5%	13.1%	70.4%	-2.5	19
1895-11-23	The Wednesday	W 2-1	1939	1908	74.5%	12.9%	12.7%	+1.8	20
1895-11-23	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-2	1908	1939	12.7%	12.9%	74.5%	-1.8	20
1895-11-23	Derby County	L 1-2	1867	1930	66.9%	13.2%	19.9%	-8.6	13
1895-11-23	@ Bury	W 2-1	1930	1867	19.9%	13.2%	66.9%	+8.6	25
1895-11-23	Preston North End	W 5-2	1844	1931	64.4%	13.3%	22.2%	+6.7	9
1895-11-23	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 2-5	1931	1844	22.2%	13.3%	64.4%	-6.7	17
1895-11-23	Nottingham Forest	W 2-1	1879	1885	71.8%	13.1%	15.2%	+2.2	16
1895-11-23	@ Sheffield United	L 1-2	1885	1879	15.2%	13.1%	71.8%	-2.2	12
1895-11-23	Aston Villa	L 3-4	1898	2007	62.1%	13.4%	24.5%	-7.4	12
1895-11-23	@ Burnley	W 4-3	2007	1898	24.5%	13.4%	62.1%	+7.4	30
1895-11-23	Wolverhampton	W 4-1	1920	1895	74.1%	12.9%	13.0%	+4.7	24
1895-11-23	@ Stoke City	L 1-4	1895	1920	13.0%	12.9%	74.1%	-4.7	16
1895-11-23	Bolton Wanderers	W 1-0	1983	1945	75.0%	12.8%	12.2%	+1.9	22
1895-11-23	@ Sunderland	L 0-1	1945	1983	12.2%	12.8%	75.0%	-1.9	25
1895-11-23	Everton	L 0-3	1849	1965	61.4%	13.4%	25.2%	-23.0	8
1895-11-23	@ West Brom	W 3-0	1965	1849	25.2%	13.4%	61.4%	+23.0	27
1895-11-28	Stoke City	W 4-0	1883	1925	68.8%	13.2%	18.0%	+9.8	15
1895-11-28	@ Nottingham Forest	L 0-4	1925	1883	18.0%	13.2%	68.8%	-9.8	24
1895-11-30	Blackburn Rovers	D 1-1	1943	1941	72.4%	13.0%	14.6%	-2.0	26
1895-11-30	@ Bolton Wanderers	D 1-1	1941	1943	14.6%	13.0%	72.4%	+2.0	21
1895-11-30	Small Heath Birmingham	W 8-0	1939	1851	78.0%	12.5%	9.5%	+10.2	28
1895-11-30	@ Derby County	L 0-8	1851	1939	9.5%	12.5%	78.0%	-10.2	9
1895-11-30	Sheffield United	W 4-3	1925	1881	75.3%	12.8%	11.9%	+1.6	20
1895-11-30	@ Preston North End	L 3-4	1881	1925	11.9%	12.8%	75.3%	-1.6	16
1895-11-30	Nottingham Forest	W 3-0	1906	1893	73.2%	13.0%	13.8%	+5.8	23
1895-11-30	@ The Wednesday	L 0-3	1893	1906	13.8%	13.0%	73.2%	-5.8	15
1895-11-30	Wolverhampton	W 2-1	1826	1890	66.8%	13.3%	20.0%	+2.9	11
1895-11-30	@ West Brom	L 1-2	1890	1826	20.0%	13.3%	66.8%	-2.9	16
1895-11-30	Stoke City	L 0-1	1859	1915	67.5%	13.2%	19.3%	-9.2	13
1895-11-30	@ Bury	W 1-0	1915	1859	19.3%	13.2%	67.5%	+9.2	27
1895-11-30	Burnley	W 2-1	1988	1890	78.5%	12.5%	9.0%	+1.3	30
1895-11-30	@ Everton	L 1-2	1890	1988	9.0%	12.5%	78.5%	-1.3	12
1895-12-07	Bolton Wanderers	W 3-2	1943	1941	72.4%	13.0%	14.6%	+2.0	24
1895-12-07	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 2-3	1941	1943	14.6%	13.0%	72.4%	-2.0	26
1895-12-07	Nottingham Forest	W 4-0	1949	1887	76.5%	12.7%	10.8%	+6.0	31
1895-12-07	@ Derby County	L 0-4	1887	1949	10.8%	12.7%	76.5%	-6.0	15
1895-12-07	Aston Villa	W 4-3	1926	2014	64.4%	13.3%	22.3%	+2.9	23
1895-12-07	@ Preston North End	L 3-4	2014	1926	22.3%	13.3%	64.4%	-2.9	30
1895-12-07	Everton	L 0-3	1840	1989	57.6%	13.4%	29.0%	-21.6	9
1895-12-07	@ Small Heath Birmingham	W 3-0	1989	1840	29.0%	13.4%	57.6%	+21.6	33
1895-12-07	Burnley	W 2-1	1924	1889	74.8%	12.8%	12.4%	+1.8	30
1895-12-07	@ Stoke City	L 1-2	1889	1924	12.4%	12.8%	74.8%	-1.8	12
1895-12-14	Preston North End	L 1-2	1850	1929	65.2%	13.3%	21.5%	-8.4	13
1895-12-14	@ Bury	W 2-1	1929	1850	21.5%	13.3%	65.2%	+8.4	26
1895-12-14	Burnley	W 1-0	1912	1887	74.1%	12.9%	13.0%	+2.0	26
1895-12-14	@ The Wednesday	L 0-1	1887	1912	13.0%	12.9%	74.1%	-2.0	12
1895-12-14	Sheffield United	W 3-1	1881	1880	72.3%	13.0%	14.7%	+3.7	18
1895-12-14	@ Nottingham Forest	L 1-3	1880	1881	14.7%	13.0%	72.3%	-3.7	16
1895-12-14	Small Heath Birmingham	W 2-1	1985	1819	81.7%	12.0%	6.3%	+0.9	25
1895-12-14	@ Sunderland	L 1-2	1819	1985	6.3%	12.0%	81.7%	-0.9	9
1895-12-14	Blackburn Rovers	L 1-2	1887	1945	67.4%	13.2%	19.4%	-8.7	16
1895-12-14	@ Wolverhampton	W 2-1	1945	1887	19.4%	13.2%	67.4%	+8.7	27
1895-12-14	Bolton Wanderers	W 2-0	2011	1939	77.1%	12.6%	10.3%	+3.0	33
1895-12-14	@ Aston Villa	L 0-2	1939	2011	10.3%	12.6%	77.1%	-3.0	26
1895-12-14	West Brom	W 4-1	1955	1829	79.9%	12.3%	7.8%	+2.8	34
1895-12-14	@ Derby County	L 1-4	1829	1955	7.8%	12.3%	79.9%	-2.8	11
1895-12-14	Stoke City	W 7-2	2011	1926	77.8%	12.6%	9.6%	+4.6	36
1895-12-14	@ Everton	L 2-7	1926	2011	9.6%	12.6%	77.8%	-4.6	30
1895-12-21	Sunderland	W 1-0	1936	1986	68.0%	13.2%	18.8%	+2.8	29
1895-12-21	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-1	1986	1936	18.8%	13.2%	68.0%	-2.8	25
1895-12-21	Derby County	D 1-1	1876	1958	65.0%	13.3%	21.7%	-1.5	17
1895-12-21	@ Sheffield United	D 1-1	1958	1876	21.7%	13.3%	65.0%	+1.5	35
1895-12-21	Preston North End	W 2-1	1879	1938	67.2%	13.2%	19.5%	+2.8	19
1895-12-21	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1938	1879	19.5%	13.2%	67.2%	-2.8	26
1895-12-21	West Brom	D 2-2	1818	1826	71.6%	13.1%	15.4%	-1.4	10
1895-12-21	@ Small Heath Birmingham	D 2-2	1826	1818	15.4%	13.1%	71.6%	+1.4	12
1895-12-21	Nottingham Forest	D 0-0	1885	1885	72.3%	13.0%	14.7%	-2.2	13
1895-12-21	@ Burnley	D 0-0	1885	1885	14.7%	13.0%	72.3%	+2.2	19
1895-12-21	Aston Villa	W 2-0	2016	2014	72.3%	13.0%	14.6%	+4.3	39
1895-12-21	@ Everton	L 0-2	2014	2016	14.6%	13.0%	72.3%	-4.3	33
1895-12-21	The Wednesday	W 5-0	1921	1914	72.8%	13.0%	14.2%	+9.7	33
1895-12-21	@ Stoke City	L 0-5	1914	1921	14.2%	13.0%	72.8%	-9.7	26
1895-12-25	Stoke City	L 0-1	1935	1931	72.5%	13.0%	14.5%	-9.9	26
1895-12-25	@ Preston North End	W 1-0	1931	1935	14.5%	13.0%	72.5%	+9.9	36
1895-12-26	The Wednesday	D 1-1	1875	1904	69.8%	13.1%	17.0%	-1.8	18
1895-12-26	@ Sheffield United	D 1-1	1904	1875	17.0%	13.1%	69.8%	+1.8	27
1895-12-26	Sunderland	D 1-1	1828	1983	56.8%	13.4%	29.8%	-0.9	13
1895-12-26	@ West Brom	D 1-1	1983	1828	29.8%	13.4%	56.8%	+0.9	26
1895-12-26	Burnley	W 1-0	1816	1883	66.5%	13.3%	20.2%	+3.1	13
1895-12-26	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 0-1	1883	1816	20.2%	13.3%	66.5%	-3.1	13
1895-12-26	Bolton Wanderers	W 2-1	1959	1939	73.8%	12.9%	13.3%	+1.9	38
1895-12-26	@ Derby County	L 1-2	1939	1959	13.3%	12.9%	73.8%	-1.9	29
1895-12-26	Aston Villa	L 1-2	1882	2010	60.0%	13.4%	26.6%	-7.7	19
1895-12-26	@ Wolverhampton	W 2-1	2010	1882	26.6%	13.4%	60.0%	+7.7	36
1895-12-26	Bury	L 0-2	1941	1841	78.6%	12.5%	8.9%	-20.3	36
1895-12-26	@ Stoke City	W 2-0	1841	1941	8.9%	12.5%	78.6%	+20.3	16
1895-12-27	Sunderland	L 1-3	1874	1984	62.0%	13.4%	24.6%	-13.8	19
1895-12-27	@ Wolverhampton	W 3-1	1984	1874	24.6%	13.4%	62.0%	+13.8	29
1895-12-28	Derby County	L 0-4	1906	1961	67.6%	13.2%	19.1%	-33.0	27
1895-12-28	@ The Wednesday	W 4-0	1961	1906	19.1%	13.2%	67.6%	+33.0	41
1895-12-28	Blackburn Rovers	W 4-2	1887	1953	66.5%	13.3%	20.2%	+4.5	22
1895-12-28	@ Nottingham Forest	L 2-4	1953	1887	20.2%	13.3%	66.5%	-4.5	27
1895-12-28	Bury	W 2-0	2018	1861	81.3%	12.0%	6.7%	+2.0	39
1895-12-28	@ Aston Villa	L 0-2	1861	2018	6.7%	12.0%	81.3%	-2.0	16
1895-12-30	Bolton Wanderers	W 1-0	1873	1937	66.8%	13.3%	20.0%	+3.0	21
1895-12-30	@ Sheffield United	L 0-1	1937	1873	20.0%	13.3%	66.8%	-3.0	29
1896-01-01	Burnley	L 3-4	1859	1880	70.6%	13.1%	16.3%	-8.4	16
1896-01-01	@ Bury	W 4-3	1880	1859	16.3%	13.1%	70.6%	+8.4	16
1896-01-01	Preston North End	D 1-1	1873	1925	67.9%	13.2%	18.9%	-1.7	28
1896-01-01	@ The Wednesday	D 1-1	1925	1873	18.9%	13.2%	67.9%	+1.7	27
1896-01-01	Everton	L 2-3	1949	2020	66.1%	13.3%	20.6%	-8.1	27
1896-01-01	@ Blackburn Rovers	W 3-2	2020	1949	20.6%	13.3%	66.1%	+8.1	42
1896-01-01	Derby County	W 2-1	1934	1994	67.1%	13.2%	19.7%	+2.8	32
1896-01-01	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1994	1934	19.7%	13.2%	67.1%	-2.8	41
1896-01-04	Derby County	L 1-3	1820	1991	54.7%	13.4%	31.9%	-12.3	13
1896-01-04	@ Small Heath Birmingham	W 3-1	1991	1820	31.9%	13.4%	54.7%	+12.3	44
1896-01-04	Bury	L 0-2	1941	1851	78.1%	12.5%	9.4%	-20.2	27
1896-01-04	@ Blackburn Rovers	W 2-0	1851	1941	9.4%	12.5%	78.1%	+20.1	19
1896-01-04	Wolverhampton	W 4-0	1936	1860	77.3%	12.6%	10.1%	+5.6	35
1896-01-04	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-4	1860	1936	10.1%	12.6%	77.3%	-5.6	19
1896-01-04	The Wednesday	W 2-0	1888	1872	73.5%	12.9%	13.6%	+4.0	19
1896-01-04	@ Burnley	L 0-2	1872	1888	13.6%	12.9%	73.5%	-4.0	28
1896-01-04	Sunderland	W 4-1	1926	1998	66.0%	13.3%	20.7%	+7.2	30
1896-01-04	@ Preston North End	L 1-4	1998	1926	20.7%	13.3%	66.0%	-7.2	29
1896-01-04	West Brom	W 2-0	1876	1827	75.6%	12.8%	11.6%	+3.4	24
1896-01-04	@ Sheffield United	L 0-2	1827	1876	11.6%	12.8%	75.6%	-3.4	13
1896-01-04	Aston Villa	L 1-2	1921	2020	63.2%	13.3%	23.4%	-8.1	36
1896-01-04	@ Stoke City	W 2-1	2020	1921	23.4%	13.3%	63.2%	+8.1	42
1896-01-11	Bolton Wanderers	D 0-0	1891	1942	68.0%	13.2%	18.8%	-1.9	23
1896-01-11	@ Nottingham Forest	D 0-0	1942	1891	18.8%	13.2%	68.0%	+1.9	36
1896-01-11	West Brom	W 3-0	1892	1824	76.9%	12.7%	10.5%	+4.5	22
1896-01-11	@ Burnley	L 0-3	1824	1892	10.5%	12.7%	76.9%	-4.5	13
1896-01-11	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-0	1868	1921	67.8%	13.2%	19.0%	+7.9	31
1896-01-11	@ The Wednesday	L 0-3	1921	1868	19.0%	13.2%	67.8%	-7.9	27
1896-01-11	Sheffield United	D 1-1	1991	1879	79.2%	12.4%	8.4%	-2.5	30
1896-01-11	@ Sunderland	D 1-1	1879	1991	8.4%	12.4%	79.2%	+2.5	25
1896-01-11	Preston North End	W 1-0	2028	1934	78.3%	12.5%	9.2%	+1.4	45
1896-01-11	@ Aston Villa	L 0-1	1934	2028	9.2%	12.5%	78.3%	-1.4	30
1896-01-11	Everton	D 1-1	1871	2028	56.6%	13.4%	30.0%	-0.9	20
1896-01-11	@ Bury	D 1-1	2028	1871	30.0%	13.4%	56.6%	+0.9	43
1896-01-18	Wolverhampton	W 3-2	1807	1854	68.3%	13.2%	18.5%	+2.5	16
1896-01-18	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 2-3	1854	1807	18.5%	13.2%	68.3%	-2.5	19
1896-01-18	Sunderland	W 3-1	1889	1988	63.2%	13.3%	23.4%	+5.7	26
1896-01-18	@ Nottingham Forest	L 1-3	1988	1889	23.4%	13.3%	63.2%	-5.7	30
1896-01-18	Derby County	D 0-0	1819	2004	53.1%	13.4%	33.5%	-0.7	14
1896-01-18	@ West Brom	D 0-0	2004	1819	33.5%	13.4%	53.1%	+0.7	45
1896-01-18	Aston Villa	L 1-3	1875	2029	57.0%	13.4%	29.6%	-12.7	31
1896-01-18	@ The Wednesday	W 3-1	2029	1875	29.6%	13.4%	57.0%	+12.7	48
1896-01-25	Sheffield United	W 1-0	1913	1882	74.5%	12.9%	12.7%	+2.0	30
1896-01-25	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-1	1882	1913	12.7%	12.9%	74.5%	-2.0	25
1896-01-25	Small Heath Birmingham	W 7-2	1852	1810	75.2%	12.8%	12.0%	+5.7	22
1896-01-25	@ Wolverhampton	L 2-7	1810	1852	12.0%	12.8%	75.2%	-5.7	16
1896-01-25	Everton	D 1-1	1932	2029	63.5%	13.3%	23.2%	-1.3	31
1896-01-25	@ Preston North End	D 1-1	2029	1932	23.2%	13.3%	63.5%	+1.3	44
1896-01-25	West Brom	W 7-1	1983	1818	81.6%	12.0%	6.4%	+4.3	33
1896-01-25	@ Sunderland	L 1-7	1818	1983	6.4%	12.0%	81.6%	-4.3	14
1896-01-25	Nottingham Forest	W 3-1	2042	1895	80.9%	12.1%	7.0%	+1.8	51
1896-01-25	@ Aston Villa	L 1-3	1895	2042	7.0%	12.1%	80.9%	-1.8	26
1896-02-03	Small Heath Birmingham	W 3-0	2030	1804	83.9%	11.4%	4.6%	+2.0	47
1896-02-03	@ Everton	L 0-3	1804	2030	4.6%	11.4%	83.9%	-2.0	16
1896-02-04	Sheffield United	W 5-0	1897	1880	73.5%	12.9%	13.6%	+9.3	25
1896-02-04	@ Burnley	L 0-5	1880	1897	13.6%	12.9%	73.5%	-9.2	25
1896-02-08	The Wednesday	D 1-1	1802	1863	67.1%	13.2%	19.7%	-1.6	17
1896-02-08	@ Small Heath Birmingham	D 1-1	1863	1802	19.7%	13.2%	67.1%	+1.6	32
1896-02-08	Wolverhampton	W 2-1	1870	1858	73.2%	13.0%	13.8%	+2.0	28
1896-02-08	@ Sheffield United	L 1-2	1858	1870	13.8%	13.0%	73.2%	-2.0	22
1896-02-08	Nottingham Forest	D 1-1	1987	1893	78.3%	12.5%	9.2%	-2.4	34
1896-02-08	@ Sunderland	D 1-1	1893	1987	9.2%	12.5%	78.3%	+2.4	27
1896-02-08	Aston Villa	D 2-2	2004	2044	69.0%	13.2%	17.8%	-1.3	46
1896-02-08	@ Derby County	D 2-2	2044	2004	17.8%	13.2%	69.0%	+1.3	52
1896-02-17	West Brom	W 1-0	1915	1814	78.6%	12.4%	8.9%	+1.4	33
1896-02-17	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-1	1814	1915	8.9%	12.4%	78.6%	-1.4	14
1896-02-18	Wolverhampton	W 3-0	1870	1856	73.3%	13.0%	13.7%	+5.8	23
1896-02-18	@ Bury	L 0-3	1856	1870	13.7%	13.0%	73.3%	-5.8	22
1896-02-18	Everton	W 3-1	1864	2032	55.2%	13.4%	31.4%	+7.5	35
1896-02-18	@ The Wednesday	L 1-3	2032	1864	31.4%	13.4%	55.2%	-7.5	47
1896-02-18	Burnley	W 3-1	1984	1906	77.5%	12.6%	10.0%	+2.5	37
1896-02-18	@ Sunderland	L 1-3	1906	1984	10.0%	12.6%	77.5%	-2.5	25
1896-02-22	Derby County	L 0-2	1916	2003	64.5%	13.3%	22.2%	-16.6	33
1896-02-22	@ Blackburn Rovers	W 2-0	2003	1916	22.2%	13.3%	64.5%	+16.6	49
1896-02-22	Bury	L 1-3	1872	1876	71.9%	13.0%	15.0%	-16.1	35
1896-02-22	@ The Wednesday	W 3-1	1876	1872	15.0%	13.0%	71.9%	+16.1	26
1896-02-22	Small Heath Birmingham	W 4-1	1944	1801	80.7%	12.1%	7.1%	+2.6	39
1896-02-22	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-4	1801	1944	7.1%	12.1%	80.7%	-2.6	17
1896-02-22	Nottingham Forest	W 6-0	1931	1896	74.8%	12.8%	12.4%	+10.1	34
1896-02-22	@ Preston North End	L 0-6	1896	1931	12.4%	12.8%	74.8%	-10.0	27
1896-02-22	Wolverhampton	W 3-1	1903	1850	75.9%	12.8%	11.3%	+2.9	28
1896-02-22	@ Burnley	L 1-3	1850	1903	11.3%	12.8%	75.9%	-2.9	22
1896-02-22	Sheffield United	W 1-0	1813	1872	67.2%	13.2%	19.6%	+3.0	17
1896-02-22	@ West Brom	L 0-1	1872	1813	19.6%	13.2%	67.2%	-3.0	28
1896-02-22	Stoke City	W 5-2	2045	1912	80.2%	12.2%	7.5%	+2.4	55
1896-02-22	@ Aston Villa	L 2-5	1912	2045	7.5%	12.2%	80.2%	-2.4	36
1896-02-22	Everton	W 3-0	1987	2025	69.2%	13.2%	17.7%	+7.4	40
1896-02-22	@ Sunderland	L 0-3	2025	1987	17.7%	13.2%	69.2%	-7.4	47
1896-02-29	Blackburn Rovers	W 2-1	1798	1899	63.0%	13.4%	23.7%	+3.3	20
1896-02-29	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 1-2	1899	1798	23.7%	13.4%	63.0%	-3.3	33
1896-03-04	Preston North End	W 1-0	2020	1941	77.4%	12.6%	10.0%	+1.5	52
1896-03-04	@ Derby County	L 0-1	1941	2020	10.0%	12.6%	77.4%	-1.5	34
1896-03-07	Bury	W 1-0	1801	1892	64.1%	13.3%	22.6%	+3.4	23
1896-03-07	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 0-1	1892	1801	22.6%	13.3%	64.1%	-3.4	26
1896-03-07	Burnley	W 2-1	1886	1906	70.6%	13.1%	16.3%	+2.3	30
1896-03-07	@ Nottingham Forest	L 1-2	1906	1886	16.3%	13.1%	70.6%	-2.4	28
1896-03-07	Blackburn Rovers	D 1-1	1870	1896	70.1%	13.1%	16.8%	-1.8	29
1896-03-07	@ Sheffield United	D 1-1	1896	1870	16.8%	13.1%	70.1%	+1.8	34
1896-03-07	West Brom	L 1-2	1847	1816	74.5%	12.9%	12.6%	-9.6	22
1896-03-07	@ Wolverhampton	W 2-1	1816	1847	12.6%	12.9%	74.5%	+9.6	20
1896-03-07	Aston Villa	D 2-2	1946	2047	63.0%	13.3%	23.6%	-1.0	40
1896-03-07	@ Bolton Wanderers	D 2-2	2047	1946	23.6%	13.3%	63.0%	+1.0	56
1896-03-07	Preston North End	W 3-2	2017	1939	77.4%	12.6%	10.0%	+1.4	50
1896-03-07	@ Everton	L 2-3	1939	2017	10.0%	12.6%	77.4%	-1.4	34
1896-03-07	The Wednesday	W 2-1	1994	1856	80.5%	12.2%	7.3%	+1.1	43
1896-03-07	@ Sunderland	L 1-2	1856	1994	7.3%	12.2%	80.5%	-1.1	35
1896-03-09	Bury	L 1-3	1825	1889	66.8%	13.3%	19.9%	-14.9	20
1896-03-09	@ West Brom	W 3-1	1889	1825	19.9%	13.3%	66.8%	+14.9	29
1896-03-14	Sunderland	W 5-0	1910	1995	64.7%	13.3%	22.0%	+14.6	39
1896-03-14	@ Stoke City	L 0-5	1995	1910	22.0%	13.3%	64.7%	-14.6	43
1896-03-14	Preston North End	W 1-0	1945	1938	72.8%	13.0%	14.2%	+2.2	43
1896-03-14	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-1	1938	1945	14.2%	13.0%	72.8%	-2.2	34
1896-03-14	Sheffield United	L 0-2	2021	1868	81.2%	12.1%	6.8%	-20.9	52
1896-03-14	@ Derby County	W 2-0	1868	2021	6.8%	12.1%	81.2%	+20.9	32
1896-03-14	The Wednesday	W 2-1	2048	1855	82.8%	11.7%	5.5%	+0.8	59
1896-03-14	@ Aston Villa	L 1-2	1855	2048	5.5%	11.7%	82.8%	-0.8	35
1896-03-16	Stoke City	W 2-0	1904	1925	70.6%	13.1%	16.3%	+4.7	31
1896-03-16	@ Burnley	L 0-2	1925	1904	16.3%	13.1%	70.6%	-4.7	39
1896-03-21	Small Heath Birmingham	W 2-1	1898	1805	78.3%	12.5%	9.2%	+1.4	37
1896-03-21	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-2	1805	1898	9.2%	12.5%	78.3%	-1.4	23
1896-03-21	Nottingham Forest	W 1-0	1920	1888	74.6%	12.9%	12.6%	+2.0	42
1896-03-21	@ Stoke City	L 0-1	1888	1920	12.6%	12.9%	74.6%	-2.0	30
1896-03-21	Aston Villa	W 5-3	1904	2049	58.0%	13.4%	28.6%	+5.8	32
1896-03-21	@ Bury	L 3-5	2049	1904	28.6%	13.4%	58.0%	-5.8	59
1896-03-24	Nottingham Forest	W 1-0	1910	1886	74.0%	12.9%	13.1%	+2.0	35
1896-03-24	@ Bury	L 0-1	1886	1910	13.1%	12.9%	74.0%	-2.0	30
1896-03-28	Nottingham Forest	W 6-1	1837	1884	68.4%	13.2%	18.4%	+10.3	25
1896-03-28	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-6	1884	1837	18.4%	13.2%	68.4%	-10.3	30
1896-03-28	Derby County	W 1-0	1936	2000	66.7%	13.3%	20.0%	+3.0	37
1896-03-28	@ Preston North End	L 0-1	2000	1936	20.0%	13.3%	66.7%	-3.0	52
1896-03-28	Stoke City	W 4-1	1981	1922	76.3%	12.7%	11.0%	+4.0	46
1896-03-28	@ Sunderland	L 1-4	1922	1981	11.0%	12.7%	76.3%	-4.0	42
1896-03-30	Burnley	D 1-1	1889	1909	70.7%	13.1%	16.2%	-1.8	33
1896-03-30	@ Sheffield United	D 1-1	1909	1889	16.2%	13.1%	70.7%	+1.8	32
1896-04-03	Derby County	D 2-2	2019	1997	73.8%	12.9%	13.3%	-1.5	51
1896-04-03	@ Everton	D 2-2	1997	2019	13.3%	12.9%	73.8%	+1.5	53
1896-04-03	Stoke City	W 3-1	1899	1918	70.8%	13.1%	16.1%	+4.0	40
1896-04-03	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-3	1918	1899	16.1%	13.1%	70.8%	-4.0	42
1896-04-03	Sheffield United	W 4-1	1948	1887	76.4%	12.7%	10.9%	+3.9	46
1896-04-03	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-4	1887	1948	10.9%	12.7%	76.4%	-3.9	33
1896-04-03	Small Heath Birmingham	D 1-1	1910	1803	79.0%	12.4%	8.6%	-2.4	33
1896-04-03	@ Burnley	D 1-1	1803	1910	8.6%	12.4%	79.0%	+2.4	24
1896-04-03	West Brom	D 0-0	1939	1810	80.0%	12.2%	7.7%	-2.8	38
1896-04-03	@ Preston North End	D 0-0	1810	1939	7.7%	12.2%	80.0%	+2.8	21
1896-04-03	Sunderland	L 1-2	1912	1985	65.9%	13.3%	20.8%	-8.5	35
1896-04-03	@ Bury	W 2-1	1985	1912	20.8%	13.3%	65.9%	+8.5	49
1896-04-03	Aston Villa	L 0-2	1874	2043	55.0%	13.4%	31.6%	-14.2	30
1896-04-03	@ Nottingham Forest	W 2-0	2043	1874	31.6%	13.4%	55.0%	+14.2	62
1896-04-04	Wolverhampton	W 3-2	1860	1848	73.1%	13.0%	13.9%	+1.9	33
1896-04-04	@ Nottingham Forest	L 2-3	1848	1860	13.9%	13.0%	73.1%	-1.9	25
1896-04-04	Bury	D 1-1	1936	1903	74.6%	12.9%	12.5%	-2.1	39
1896-04-04	@ Preston North End	D 1-1	1903	1936	12.5%	12.9%	74.6%	+2.1	36
1896-04-04	Small Heath Birmingham	W 3-0	1854	1806	75.6%	12.8%	11.6%	+4.9	38
1896-04-04	@ The Wednesday	L 0-3	1806	1854	11.6%	12.8%	75.6%	-4.9	24
1896-04-04	West Brom	W 2-1	1952	1813	80.5%	12.2%	7.3%	+1.1	49
1896-04-04	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1813	1952	7.3%	12.2%	80.5%	-1.1	21
1896-04-04	Derby County	D 2-2	1908	1999	64.1%	13.3%	22.6%	-1.0	34
1896-04-04	@ Burnley	D 2-2	1999	1908	22.6%	13.3%	64.1%	+1.0	54
1896-04-04	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-0	1914	1903	73.0%	13.0%	14.0%	+5.9	45
1896-04-04	@ Stoke City	L 0-3	1903	1914	14.0%	13.0%	73.0%	-5.9	40
1896-04-06	Bolton Wanderers	D 1-1	2017	1953	76.6%	12.7%	10.7%	-2.3	52
1896-04-06	@ Everton	D 1-1	1953	2017	10.7%	12.7%	76.6%	+2.3	50
1896-04-06	Bury	W 8-0	1883	1905	70.5%	13.1%	16.4%	+17.3	36
1896-04-06	@ Sheffield United	L 0-8	1905	1883	16.4%	13.1%	70.5%	-17.3	36
1896-04-06	Small Heath Birmingham	D 0-0	1812	1801	73.1%	13.0%	13.9%	-2.3	22
1896-04-06	@ West Brom	D 0-0	1801	1812	13.9%	13.0%	73.1%	+2.3	25
1896-04-06	Wolverhampton	W 4-1	2058	1846	83.5%	11.6%	5.0%	+1.8	65
1896-04-06	@ Aston Villa	L 1-4	1846	2058	5.0%	11.6%	83.5%	-1.8	25
1896-04-06	The Wednesday	L 0-1	1934	1859	77.2%	12.6%	10.1%	-10.6	39
1896-04-06	@ Preston North End	W 1-0	1859	1934	10.1%	12.6%	77.2%	+10.6	41
1896-04-07	Everton	W 2-1	2000	2015	71.1%	13.1%	15.8%	+2.3	57
1896-04-07	@ Derby County	L 1-2	2015	2000	15.8%	13.1%	71.1%	-2.3	52
1896-04-07	Bury	W 1-0	1844	1888	68.6%	13.2%	18.2%	+2.8	28
1896-04-07	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-1	1888	1844	18.2%	13.2%	68.6%	-2.8	36
1896-04-07	Sheffield United	W 2-1	1803	1900	63.4%	13.3%	23.2%	+3.3	28
1896-04-07	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 1-2	1900	1803	23.2%	13.3%	63.4%	-3.3	36
1896-04-07	The Wednesday	W 1-0	1861	1869	71.6%	13.1%	15.3%	+2.4	36
1896-04-07	@ Nottingham Forest	L 0-1	1869	1861	15.3%	13.1%	71.6%	-2.4	41
1896-04-11	Blackburn Rovers	D 0-0	2002	1897	78.9%	12.4%	8.7%	-2.7	58
1896-04-11	@ Derby County	D 0-0	1897	2002	8.7%	12.4%	78.9%	+2.7	41
1896-04-11	Sunderland	L 0-1	1806	1993	52.8%	13.4%	33.8%	-7.3	28
1896-04-11	@ Small Heath Birmingham	W 1-0	1993	1806	33.8%	13.4%	52.8%	+7.3	52
1896-04-11	Everton	L 1-2	1920	2012	63.9%	13.3%	22.8%	-8.2	45
1896-04-11	@ Stoke City	W 2-1	2012	1920	22.8%	13.3%	63.9%	+8.2	55
1896-04-11	Bolton Wanderers	W 5-0	1847	1955	62.2%	13.4%	24.4%	+16.1	31
1896-04-11	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-5	1955	1847	24.4%	13.4%	62.2%	-16.1	50
1896-04-18	Blackburn Rovers	W 6-0	1907	1900	72.8%	13.0%	14.2%	+11.5	37
1896-04-18	@ Burnley	L 0-6	1900	1907	14.2%	13.0%	72.8%	-11.5	41
1896-04-25	The Wednesday	W 2-0	1939	1867	77.1%	12.6%	10.3%	+3.0	53
1896-04-25	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-2	1867	1939	10.3%	12.6%	77.1%	-3.0	41
1896-04-25	Blackburn Rovers	W 2-0	1885	1889	72.0%	13.0%	15.0%	+4.4	39
1896-04-25	@ Bury	L 0-2	1889	1885	15.0%	13.0%	72.0%	-4.3	41
1896-04-29	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-2	1810	1884	65.8%	13.3%	20.9%	+2.8	25
1896-04-29	@ West Brom	L 2-3	1884	1810	20.9%	13.3%	65.8%	-2.8	41

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1896-03-14	6.77%	Sheffield United	1868	2	@ Derby County	2021	0
2	1895-12-26	8.94%	Bury	1841	2	@ Stoke City	1941	0
3	1895-10-05	9.19%	Bury	1844	4	@ Bolton Wanderers	1938	2
4	1896-01-04	9.41%	Bury	1851	2	@ Blackburn Rovers	1941	0
5	1896-04-06	10.13%	The Wednesday	1859	1	@ Preston North End	1934	0
6	1895-09-21	12.56%	Blackburn Rovers	1925	2	@ Everton	1958	0
7	1896-03-07	12.64%	West Brom	1816	2	@ Wolverhampton	1847	1
8	1895-10-05	13.86%	Derby County	1900	5	@ Nottingham Forest	1913	2
9	1895-09-07	14.45%	Burnley	1897	2	@ West Brom	1901	0
10	1895-12-25	14.47%	Stoke City	1931	1	@ Preston North End	1935	0
11	1895-10-12	14.64%	Small Heath Birmingham	1858	5	@ Bury	1860	4
12	1896-02-22	15.05%	Bury	1876	3	@ The Wednesday	1872	1
13	1895-10-12	15.19%	Bolton Wanderers	1923	2	@ Burnley	1917	1
14	1895-09-14	15.98%	Stoke City	1899	2	@ Small Heath Birmingham	1883	1
15	1896-01-01	16.26%	Burnley	1880	4	@ Bury	1859	3
16	1895-10-26	16.49%	Sunderland	1971	4	@ Blackburn Rovers	1948	2
17	1895-09-07	16.79%	Bolton Wanderers	1897	3	@ Bury	1870	0
18	1895-09-28	17.37%	Everton	1939	3	@ Wolverhampton	1905	2
19	1895-10-26	17.60%	The Wednesday	1910	3	@ West Brom	1873	2
20	1895-10-26	17.62%	Preston North End	1931	1	@ Nottingham Forest	1894	0
21	1895-09-14	18.85%	Preston North End	1934	2	@ West Brom	1882	1
22	1895-12-28	19.15%	Derby County	1961	4	@ The Wednesday	1906	0
23	1895-11-30	19.26%	Stoke City	1915	1	@ Bury	1859	0
24	1895-12-14	19.36%	Blackburn Rovers	1945	2	@ Wolverhampton	1887	1
25	1895-09-28	19.74%	Bolton Wanderers	1930	2	@ Small Heath Birmingham	1868	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1895-12-28	33.05	Derby County	4	1961	19.15%	@ The Wednesday	0	1906	67.62%
2	1895-09-07	26.23	Bolton Wanderers	3	1897	16.79%	@ Bury	0	1870	70.07%
3	1895-11-23	22.99	Everton	3	1965	25.21%	@ West Brom	0	1849	61.42%
4	1895-12-07	21.58	Everton	3	1989	29.05%	@ Small Heath Birmingham	0	1840	57.55%
5	1896-03-14	20.92	Sheffield United	2	1868	6.77%	@ Derby County	0	2021	81.17%
6	1895-12-26	20.29	Bury	2	1841	8.94%	@ Stoke City	0	1941	78.61%
7	1896-01-04	20.15	Bury	2	1851	9.41%	@ Blackburn Rovers	0	1941	78.07%
8	1895-10-05	20.02	Derby County	5	1900	13.86%	@ Nottingham Forest	2	1913	73.18%
9	1895-09-21	19.24	Blackburn Rovers	2	1925	12.56%	@ Everton	0	1958	74.58%
10	1895-10-26	18.95	Aston Villa	4	1988	26.58%	@ Small Heath Birmingham	1	1860	60.04%
11	1895-09-07	18.71	Burnley	2	1897	14.45%	@ West Brom	0	1901	72.55%
12	1896-04-06	17.34	@ Sheffield United	8	1883	70.46%	Bury	0	1905	16.42%
13	1896-02-22	16.61	Derby County	2	2003	22.19%	@ Blackburn Rovers	0	1916	64.49%
14	1896-04-11	16.09	@ Wolverhampton	5	1847	62.23%	Bolton Wanderers	0	1955	24.41%
15	1896-02-22	16.06	Bury	3	1876	15.05%	@ The Wednesday	1	1872	71.91%
16	1895-10-05	15.65	Bury	4	1844	9.19%	@ Bolton Wanderers	2	1938	78.31%
17	1896-03-09	14.90	Bury	3	1889	19.93%	@ West Brom	1	1825	66.81%
18	1896-03-14	14.64	@ Stoke City	5	1910	64.66%	Sunderland	0	1995	22.03%
19	1896-04-03	14.23	Aston Villa	2	2043	31.60%	@ Nottingham Forest	0	1874	54.99%
20	1895-10-26	14.06	Sunderland	4	1971	16.49%	@ Blackburn Rovers	2	1948	70.39%
21	1895-12-27	13.83	Sunderland	3	1984	24.62%	@ Wolverhampton	1	1874	62.02%
22	1896-01-18	12.74	Aston Villa	3	2029	29.63%	@ The Wednesday	1	1875	56.96%
23	1896-01-04	12.26	Derby County	3	1991	31.87%	@ Small Heath Birmingham	1	1820	54.72%
24	1896-04-18	11.52	@ Burnley	6	1907	72.75%	Blackburn Rovers	0	1900	14.25%
25	1895-11-09	10.89	@ Bury	6	1856	67.12%	The Wednesday	1	1917	19.63%