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1994-95 Meistriliiga Season

84 games

Final

Champion

Flora

31 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1993-94

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lantana Tallinn

11.27 points above expected

33 points · 21.73 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Norma Tallinn

6.18 points below expected

10 points · 16.18 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lantana Tallinn 14 10 3 1 33 44 7 +37 21.73 +11.27
2 Flora Champion 13 9 4 0 31 32 4 +28 30.20 +0.80
3 Sadam Tallinn 14 7 4 3 25 29 11 +18 22.68 +2.32
4 Narva Trans 13 6 5 2 23 23 9 +14 25.14 -2.14
5 Polevkivi Johvi 14 5 3 6 18 25 16 +9 21.58 -3.58
6 Norma Tallinn 14 3 1 10 10 9 51 -42 16.18 -6.18
7 Parnu Vaprus 13 2 1 10 7 12 35 -23 10.24 -3.24
8 DAG Tartu 13 1 1 11 4 6 47 -41 5.84 -1.84
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Flora 10 7 3 0 24 27 6 +21 38.31 -14.31
2 Lantana Tallinn 10 7 2 1 23 26 9 +17 33.84 -10.84
3 Narva Trans 10 4 1 5 13 9 15 -6 28.76 -15.76
4 Sadam Tallinn 10 4 0 6 12 11 14 -3 26.97 -14.97
5 Polevkivi Johvi 10 4 0 6 12 17 24 -7 20.08 -8.08
6 Norma Tallinn 10 1 0 9 3 6 28 -22 9.05 -6.05

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lantana Tallinn 33 21.73 +11.27
2 Sadam Tallinn 25 22.68 +2.32
3 Flora 31 30.20 +0.80
4 DAG Tartu 4 5.84 -1.84
5 Narva Trans 23 25.14 -2.14

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Norma Tallinn 10 16.18 -6.18
2 Polevkivi Johvi 18 21.58 -3.58
3 Parnu Vaprus 7 10.24 -3.24
4 Narva Trans 23 25.14 -2.14
5 DAG Tartu 4 5.84 -1.84

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lantana Tallinn 5 Sep 21 – Oct 12 1 in 12
2 DAG Tartu 1 Sep 11 – Sep 11 1 in 6
3 Sadam Tallinn 2 Aug 26 – Sep 7 1 in 5
4 Parnu Vaprus 1 Aug 14 – Aug 14 1 in 5
5 Narva Trans 3 Sep 7 – Sep 21 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Parnu Vaprus 9 Aug 26 – Oct 15 1 in 147
2 Norma Tallinn 4 Aug 6 – Aug 30 1 in 70
3 DAG Tartu 6 Sep 18 – Oct 18 1 in 10
4 Polevkivi Johvi 2 Sep 7 – Sep 11 1 in 6
5 Lantana Tallinn 1 Sep 8 – Sep 8 58%

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sadam Tallinn 8 Aug 14 – Sep 26 1 in 37
2 Lantana Tallinn 8 Sep 11 – Oct 18 1 in 22
3 Narva Trans 7 Aug 19 – Sep 30 1 in 13
4 Flora 13 Aug 2 – Oct 18 1 in 8
5 DAG Tartu 1 Aug 28 – Aug 28 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Norma Tallinn 5 Aug 2 – Aug 30 1 in 30
2 Narva Trans 3 Aug 13 – Aug 28 1 in 13
3 Parnu Vaprus 9 Aug 26 – Oct 15 1 in 12
4 Flora 2 Sep 21 – Sep 25 1 in 7
5 Polevkivi Johvi 3 Aug 28 – Sep 11 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Lantana Tallinn 1266 56 +5 10 10.2 -0.2
Flora 1345 55 +13 11 11.7 -0.7
Sadam Tallinn 1030 37 +40 9 6.4 +2.6
Narva Trans 1022 36 +103 10 6.8 +3.2
Polevkivi Johvi 921 30 -108 3 5.6 -2.6
Norma Tallinn 615 13 -54 0 1.8 -1.8
Parnu Vaprus 671 7 +19 3 3.6 -0.6
DAG Tartu 474 4 -129 0 3.3 -3.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DT FLO LT NT NT PV PJ ST
DAG Tartu —
0-0-2
0.54
0-0-2
0.76
0-1-0
0.30
0-0-2
1.63
1-0-1
1.88
0-0-2
1.08
0-0-2
0.92
Flora
2-0-0
5.16
 —
1-1-0
3.83
1-1-0
3.93
2-0-0
5.07
1-0-0
2.66
1-1-0
4.26
1-1-0
4.30
Lantana Tallinn
2-0-0
4.91
0-1-1
1.82
 —
1-1-0
2.06
2-0-0
4.32
2-0-0
3.65
2-0-0
2.47
1-1-0
2.94
Narva Trans
0-1-0
2.55
0-1-1
1.72
0-1-1
3.59
 —
2-0-0
3.71
2-0-0
4.66
1-1-0
3.62
1-1-0
3.24
Norma Tallinn
2-0-0
4.02
0-0-2
0.62
0-0-2
1.34
0-0-2
1.95
 —
1-0-1
3.67
0-0-2
2.34
0-1-1
2.54
Parnu Vaprus
1-0-1
3.77
0-0-1
0.20
0-0-2
2.01
0-0-2
1.01
1-0-1
1.98
 —
0-1-1
1.66
0-0-2
1.43
Polevkivi Johvi
2-0-0
4.58
0-1-1
1.40
0-0-2
3.18
0-1-1
2.03
2-0-0
3.32
1-1-0
3.99
 —
0-0-2
2.65
Sadam Tallinn
2-0-0
4.76
0-1-1
1.35
0-1-1
2.70
0-1-1
2.41
1-1-0
3.12
2-0-0
4.23
2-0-0
3.00
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +8.1
Allowed 0.84 -5.3
Differential 0.92 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%6.55%7.14%7.14%4.17%4.76%34.52%
16.55%7.14%4.17%2.38%2.38%2.38%25.00%
27.14%4.17%4.76%—0.60%—16.67%
37.14%2.38%————9.52%
44.17%2.38%0.60%———7.14%
5+4.76%2.38%————7.14%
Total34.52%25.00%16.67%9.52%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.64 +0.00
SD 2.00 2.00 3.35
CV 1.22 1.22 —
Max 12 12 +12
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 84

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——23.08%15.38%7.69%23.08%69.23%
1——7.69%——7.69%15.38%
27.69%—7.69%———15.38%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.69%—38.46%15.38%7.69%30.77%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.46 3.62 -3.15
SD 0.78 2.75 3.16
CV 1.68 0.76 —
Max 2 11 +2
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.70%—————8.70%
14.35%17.39%————21.74%
221.74%4.35%4.35%———30.43%
321.74%4.35%————26.09%
4——4.35%———4.35%
5+8.70%—————8.70%
Total65.22%26.09%8.70%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.57 0.43 +2.13
SD 2.45 0.66 2.62
CV 0.95 1.52 —
Max 12 2 +12
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 23

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%—4.17%———12.50%
112.50%12.50%——4.17%—29.17%
24.17%8.33%————12.50%
38.33%4.17%————12.50%
44.17%8.33%————12.50%
5+12.50%8.33%————20.83%
Total50.00%41.67%4.17%—4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.92 0.67 +2.25
SD 2.84 0.92 3.19
CV 0.97 1.38 —
Max 11 4 +11
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.70%13.04%—8.70%4.35%—34.78%
117.39%8.70%4.35%———30.43%
24.35%4.35%8.70%———17.39%
34.35%—————4.35%
44.35%4.35%————8.70%
5+—4.35%————4.35%
Total39.13%34.78%13.04%8.70%4.35%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.04 +0.35
SD 1.59 1.15 2.17
CV 1.14 1.10 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 23

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%8.33%16.67%12.50%12.50%58.33%
14.17%—4.17%4.17%4.17%4.17%20.83%
28.33%4.17%4.17%—4.17%—20.83%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total12.50%12.50%16.67%20.83%20.83%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 3.29 -2.67
SD 0.82 2.87 3.28
CV 1.32 0.87 —
Max 2 12 +2
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——15.38%15.38%7.69%—38.46%
1—7.69%7.69%15.38%—15.38%46.15%
2—7.69%————7.69%
3———————
47.69%—————7.69%
5+———————
Total7.69%15.38%23.08%30.77%7.69%15.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 2.69 -1.77
SD 1.12 1.65 2.39
CV 1.21 0.61 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%8.33%8.33%4.17%4.17%4.17%33.33%
14.17%4.17%8.33%4.17%8.33%—29.17%
2——4.17%———4.17%
34.17%4.17%————8.33%
412.50%4.17%————16.67%
5+4.17%4.17%————8.33%
Total29.17%25.00%20.83%8.33%12.50%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.67 +0.08
SD 1.87 1.63 3.08
CV 1.07 0.98 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%16.67%8.33%4.17%—4.17%37.50%
14.17%4.17%4.17%———12.50%
28.33%4.17%8.33%———20.83%
312.50%4.17%————16.67%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+8.33%—————8.33%
Total41.67%29.17%20.83%4.17%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.04 +0.62
SD 1.74 1.23 2.60
CV 1.04 1.18 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Flora 1345 31 31.62 -0.62 47.0% 20 24 28 32 35 38 42
Lantana Tallinn 1266 33 21.73 +11.27 100.0% 12 14 19 22 24 28 32
Sadam Tallinn 1030 25 22.68 +2.32 70.0% 14 16 19 22 26 30 33
Narva Trans 1022 23 26.56 -3.56 28.0% 12 18 23 26 30 34 37
Polevkivi Johvi 921 18 21.58 -3.58 27.0% 12 15 18 22 24 29 32
Parnu Vaprus 671 7 11.66 -4.66 11.0% 2 6 9 11 14 18 20
Norma Tallinn 615 10 16.18 -6.18 10.0% 7 9 13 16 19 23 30
DAG Tartu 474 4 7.26 -3.26 21.0% 0 2 5 7 9 12 16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 1% * Slight Edge: 1% to 4.5% * Clear Edge: 4.5% to 7.5% * Strong Edge: 7.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-2.38%
No Edge
40.48%16.67%42.86%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -8.27 Elo pts.
143 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.45 goals
Neutral
-2-0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.38 * Runaway: 0.38 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.0
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
65%
Flora, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Tight Race
00.290.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.25 * Some Luck: 3.25 to 4.88 * Lucky: 4.88 to 6.51 * Wild Swing: 6.51 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.7 * Close: 0.7 to 1.05 * Off: 1.05 to 1.4 * Way Off: 1.4 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.12 points
Lucky
04.0710
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Close
00.872
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
99.74%
Lantana Tallinn
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
7.68%
Norma Tallinn
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.27 * Even: 0.27 to 0.29 * Top-Heavy: 0.29 to 0.31 * Lopsided: 0.31 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.7 * Moderate Separation: 2.7 to 3 * Strong Separation: 3 to 3.3 * Wide Separation: 3.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 87.5% * Slight Edge: 87.5% to 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 98% * Clear Edge: 98% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 43% * Some Drama: 43% to 46% * Frequent: 46% to 50.5% * Very Frequent: 50.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 28.5% * Occasional: 28.5% to 34% * Frequent: 34% to 39.5% * Very Frequent: 39.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.31
Top-Heavy
00.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 279.69
2.12
Coin-Flip Parity
12.733.33.75
Interquartile Edge
93%
Clear Edge
50%87.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
38%
Few
0%34%100%
Blowouts
Expected
42%
Very Frequent
0%46%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.54 * Slight Separation: 0.54 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.63 * Lopsided: 0.63 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.7 * Some Carryover: 0.7 to 0.84 * Strong Carryover: 0.84 to 0.9 * Near-Lock: 0.9 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Upset-Prone: 15% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 9% * As Expected: 9% to 11% * Shaky Favorites: 11% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.46
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.54
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.62
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.29
Weak Carryover
00.70.841
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Upset-Prone
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
10%
As Expected
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.26
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.11
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.074
Well Within Noise
00.1570.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Lantana Tallinn4.00%17.00%15.00%28.00%27.00%6.00%3.00%—
Flora65.00%22.00%9.00%4.00%————
Sadam Tallinn3.00%21.00%29.00%19.00%19.00%8.00%1.00%—
Narva Trans25.00%26.00%27.00%14.00%3.00%3.00%2.00%—
Polevkivi Johvi2.00%12.00%18.00%26.00%25.00%16.00%1.00%—
Norma Tallinn1.00%2.00%2.00%8.00%20.00%41.00%21.00%5.00%
Parnu Vaprus———1.00%6.00%20.00%57.00%16.00%
DAG Tartu—————6.00%15.00%79.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
DAG Tartu 6.00% 94.00%
Flora 100% —
Lantana Tallinn 97.00% 3.00%
Narva Trans 98.00% 2.00%
Norma Tallinn 74.00% 26.00%
Parnu Vaprus 27.00% 73.00%
Polevkivi Johvi 99.00% 1.00%
Sadam Tallinn 99.00% 1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level
Flora 100%
Lantana Tallinn 100%
Narva Trans 100%
Norma Tallinn 100%
Polevkivi Johvi 100%
Sadam Tallinn 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1994-08-02 DAG Tartu W 2-030.5 1127 720 77.78% 16.03% 6.19%+2.79 +8.2 3
1994-08-02 @ Flora L 0-230.5 720 1127 6.19% 16.03% 77.78%-2.79 -8.2 0
1994-08-02 Sadam Tallinn D 2-257.8 1025 895 57.99% 17.50% 24.51%+0.85 -3.4 1
1994-08-02 @ Norma Tallinn D 2-257.8 895 1025 24.51% 17.50% 57.99%-0.85 +3.4 1
1994-08-03 Narva Trans D 0-050.7 808 998 18.56% 17.30% 64.14%-1.39 +7.1 1
1994-08-03 @ Lantana Tallinn D 0-050.7 998 808 64.14% 17.30% 18.56%+1.39 -7.1 1
1994-08-03 Parnu Vaprus D 1-153.8 924 848 51.62% 17.61% 30.77%+0.48 -2.8 1
1994-08-03 @ Polevkivi Johvi D 1-153.8 848 924 30.77% 17.61% 51.62%-0.48 +2.8 1
1994-08-05 Flora L 0-233.5 899 1135 14.86% 17.10% 68.05%-1.71 -19.0 1
1994-08-05 @ Sadam Tallinn W 2-033.5 1135 899 68.05% 17.10% 14.86%+1.71 +19.0 6
1994-08-06 Norma Tallinn W 1-043.8 991 1022 36.81% 17.67% 45.53%-0.27 +26.9 4
1994-08-06 @ Narva Trans L 0-143.8 1022 991 45.53% 17.67% 36.81%+0.27 -26.9 1
1994-08-07 Lantana Tallinn L 1-247.7 850 815 46.20% 17.66% 36.14%+0.19 -25.7 1
1994-08-07 @ Parnu Vaprus W 2-147.7 815 850 36.14% 17.66% 46.20%-0.19 +25.7 4
1994-08-07 DAG Tartu W 6-031.4 921 712 65.88% 17.22% 16.90%+1.41 +59.6 4
1994-08-07 @ Polevkivi Johvi L 0-631.4 712 921 16.90% 17.22% 65.88%-1.41 -59.6 0
1994-08-13 Narva Trans W 2-141.0 1154 1018 58.72% 17.48% 23.80%+0.90 +14.6 9
1994-08-13 @ Flora L 1-241.0 1018 1154 23.80% 17.48% 58.72%-0.90 -14.6 4
1994-08-14 Sadam Tallinn L 0-531.4 652 880 15.51% 17.14% 67.36%-1.65 -46.4 0
1994-08-14 @ DAG Tartu W 5-031.4 880 652 67.36% 17.14% 15.51%+1.65 +46.4 4
1994-08-14 Polevkivi Johvi W 4-149.9 840 981 23.35% 17.47% 59.18%-1.04 +79.1 7
1994-08-14 @ Lantana Tallinn L 1-449.9 981 840 59.18% 17.47% 23.35%+1.04 -79.1 4
1994-08-14 Parnu Vaprus L 1-252.5 995 825 62.20% 17.37% 20.42%+1.13 -33.9 1
1994-08-14 @ Norma Tallinn W 2-152.5 825 995 20.42% 17.37% 62.20%-1.13 +33.9 4
1994-08-19 Sadam Tallinn D 0-050.6 1003 926 51.70% 17.61% 30.69%+0.48 -3.1 5
1994-08-19 @ Narva Trans D 0-050.6 926 1003 30.69% 17.61% 51.70%-0.48 +3.1 5
1994-08-20 DAG Tartu W 11-028.3 920 606 73.27% 16.67% 10.06%+2.14 +65.2 10
1994-08-20 @ Lantana Tallinn L 0-1128.3 606 920 10.06% 16.67% 73.27%-2.14 -65.2 0
1994-08-21 Norma Tallinn W 4-042.3 902 961 33.04% 17.64% 49.32%-0.47 +103.4 7
1994-08-21 @ Polevkivi Johvi L 0-442.3 961 902 49.32% 17.64% 33.04%+0.47 -103.4 1
1994-08-26 Sadam Tallinn L 0-337.7 859 929 31.54% 17.62% 50.84%-0.55 -54.2 4
1994-08-26 @ Parnu Vaprus W 3-037.7 929 859 50.84% 17.62% 31.54%+0.55 +54.2 8
1994-08-28 Narva Trans D 2-258.4 540 1000 4.69% 15.61% 79.69%-3.27 +8.3 1
1994-08-28 @ DAG Tartu D 2-258.4 1000 540 79.69% 15.61% 4.69%+3.27 -8.3 6
1994-08-28 Polevkivi Johvi D 0-050.7 1169 1005 61.55% 17.40% 21.05%+1.08 -6.3 10
1994-08-28 @ Flora D 0-050.7 1005 1169 21.05% 17.40% 61.55%-1.08 +6.3 8
1994-08-30 Lantana Tallinn L 0-335.6 857 985 24.78% 17.50% 57.72%-0.95 -44.0 1
1994-08-30 @ Norma Tallinn W 3-035.6 985 857 57.72% 17.50% 24.78%+0.95 +44.0 13
1994-09-07 Narva Trans L 0-433.0 804 992 18.83% 17.31% 63.86%-1.37 -44.9 4
1994-09-07 @ Parnu Vaprus W 4-033.0 992 804 63.86% 17.31% 18.83%+1.37 +45.0 9
1994-09-07 Sadam Tallinn L 1-247.4 1012 983 45.17% 17.67% 37.16%+0.14 -25.2 8
1994-09-07 @ Polevkivi Johvi W 2-147.4 983 1012 37.16% 17.67% 45.17%-0.14 +25.2 11
1994-09-08 Flora L 0-236.4 1029 1162 24.09% 17.49% 58.43%-0.99 -29.5 13
1994-09-08 @ Lantana Tallinn W 2-036.4 1162 1029 58.43% 17.49% 24.09%+0.99 +29.5 13
1994-09-08 DAG Tartu W 2-032.8 813 549 70.14% 16.95% 12.90%+1.79 +16.7 4
1994-09-08 @ Norma Tallinn L 0-232.8 549 813 12.90% 16.95% 70.14%-1.79 -16.7 1
1994-09-11 Parnu Vaprus W 2-049.2 532 759 15.52% 17.14% 67.35%-1.65 +73.5 4
1994-09-11 @ DAG Tartu L 0-249.2 759 532 67.35% 17.14% 15.52%+1.65 -73.5 4
1994-09-11 Norma Tallinn W 12-027.5 1192 830 75.79% 16.36% 7.85%+2.47 +55.7 16
1994-09-11 @ Flora L 0-1227.5 830 1192 7.85% 16.36% 75.79%-2.47 -55.7 4
1994-09-11 Polevkivi Johvi W 2-039.4 1037 986 48.18% 17.65% 34.17%+0.29 +39.9 12
1994-09-11 @ Narva Trans L 0-239.4 986 1037 34.17% 17.65% 48.18%-0.29 -40.0 8
1994-09-11 Lantana Tallinn D 1-153.8 1009 999 42.50% 17.67% 39.83%+0.01 -0.3 12
1994-09-11 @ Sadam Tallinn D 1-153.8 999 1009 39.83% 17.67% 42.50%-0.01 +0.3 14
1994-09-18 Flora L 0-228.6 605 1248 1.76% 13.93% 84.30%-4.55 -2.3 4
1994-09-18 @ DAG Tartu W 2-028.6 1248 605 84.30% 13.93% 1.76%+4.55 +2.3 19
1994-09-18 Polevkivi Johvi L 1-336.9 686 946 13.19% 16.98% 69.84%-1.88 -14.8 4
1994-09-18 @ Parnu Vaprus W 3-136.9 946 686 69.84% 16.98% 13.19%+1.88 +14.8 11
1994-09-18 Norma Tallinn W 6-030.8 1008 774 67.84% 17.11% 15.05%+1.58 +53.5 15
1994-09-18 @ Sadam Tallinn L 0-630.8 774 1008 15.05% 17.11% 67.84%-1.58 -53.5 4
1994-09-21 Polevkivi Johvi L 0-330.3 603 961 8.01% 16.38% 75.60%-2.56 -15.3 4
1994-09-21 @ DAG Tartu W 3-030.3 961 603 75.60% 16.38% 8.01%+2.56 +15.3 14
1994-09-21 Sadam Tallinn D 2-258.0 1250 1062 63.95% 17.31% 18.74%+1.26 -4.7 20
1994-09-21 @ Flora D 2-258.0 1062 1250 18.74% 17.31% 63.95%-1.26 +4.7 16
1994-09-21 Parnu Vaprus W 5-133.6 1000 671 74.08% 16.58% 9.34%+2.24 +19.4 17
1994-09-21 @ Lantana Tallinn L 1-533.6 671 1000 9.34% 16.58% 74.08%-2.24 -19.4 4
1994-09-21 Narva Trans L 0-330.3 721 1077 8.11% 16.40% 75.49%-2.55 -15.5 4
1994-09-21 @ Norma Tallinn W 3-030.3 1077 721 75.49% 16.40% 8.11%+2.55 +15.5 15
1994-09-25 Flora D 1-154.0 1092 1245 22.06% 17.43% 60.51%-1.13 +5.3 16
1994-09-25 @ Narva Trans D 1-154.0 1245 1092 60.51% 17.43% 22.06%+1.13 -5.3 21
1994-09-25 Norma Tallinn L 0-239.3 652 705 33.75% 17.65% 48.61%-0.43 -39.5 4
1994-09-25 @ Parnu Vaprus W 2-039.3 705 652 48.61% 17.65% 33.75%+0.43 +39.5 7
1994-09-25 Lantana Tallinn L 0-140.7 976 1019 35.23% 17.66% 47.12%-0.35 -21.7 14
1994-09-25 @ Polevkivi Johvi W 1-040.7 1019 976 47.12% 17.66% 35.23%+0.35 +21.7 20
1994-09-26 DAG Tartu W 3-028.9 1066 588 80.30% 15.45% 4.24%+3.29 +8.1 19
1994-09-26 @ Sadam Tallinn L 0-328.9 588 1066 4.24% 15.45% 80.30%-3.29 -8.1 4
1994-09-30 Narva Trans L 0-141.6 1075 1097 37.92% 17.67% 44.41%-0.22 -23.1 19
1994-09-30 @ Sadam Tallinn W 1-041.6 1097 1075 44.41% 17.67% 37.92%+0.22 +23.1 19
1994-10-01 Parnu Vaprus W 3-027.7 1240 612 84.01% 14.08% 1.91%+4.33 +3.6 24
1994-10-01 @ Flora L 0-327.7 612 1240 1.91% 14.08% 84.01%-4.33 -3.6 4
1994-10-01 Polevkivi Johvi L 0-432.4 745 955 16.91% 17.22% 65.88%-1.53 -40.7 7
1994-10-01 @ Norma Tallinn W 4-032.4 955 745 65.88% 17.22% 16.91%+1.53 +40.7 17
1994-10-02 Lantana Tallinn L 1-531.9 580 1041 4.66% 15.60% 79.74%-3.28 -9.7 4
1994-10-02 @ DAG Tartu W 5-131.9 1041 580 79.74% 15.60% 4.66%+3.28 +9.7 23
1994-10-04 Norma Tallinn W 10-027.8 1050 704 75.02% 16.46% 8.52%+2.36 +50.6 26
1994-10-04 @ Lantana Tallinn L 0-1027.8 704 1050 8.52% 16.46% 75.02%-2.36 -50.6 7
1994-10-04 Flora L 0-134.2 995 1244 14.03% 17.04% 68.94%-1.79 -9.6 17
1994-10-04 @ Polevkivi Johvi W 1-034.2 1244 995 68.94% 17.04% 14.03%+1.79 +9.6 27
1994-10-10 Parnu Vaprus W 3-134.1 1051 609 79.11% 15.75% 5.14%+3.04 +5.9 22
1994-10-10 @ Sadam Tallinn L 1-334.1 609 1051 5.14% 15.75% 79.11%-3.04 -5.9 4
1994-10-12 Lantana Tallinn L 0-143.4 1121 1101 43.94% 17.67% 38.38%+0.08 -26.1 19
1994-10-12 @ Narva Trans W 1-043.4 1101 1121 38.38% 17.67% 43.94%-0.08 +26.1 29
1994-10-14 Polevkivi Johvi W 2-038.6 1057 986 50.96% 17.62% 31.42%+0.44 +37.2 25
1994-10-14 @ Sadam Tallinn L 0-238.6 986 1057 31.42% 17.62% 50.96%-0.44 -37.2 17
1994-10-15 Norma Tallinn L 1-242.8 570 654 29.90% 17.60% 52.50%-0.64 -17.8 4
1994-10-15 @ DAG Tartu W 2-142.8 654 570 52.50% 17.60% 29.90%+0.64 +17.8 10
1994-10-15 Lantana Tallinn D 0-050.8 1253 1127 57.57% 17.51% 24.93%+0.82 -5.0 28
1994-10-15 @ Flora D 0-050.8 1127 1253 24.93% 17.51% 57.57%-0.82 +5.0 30
1994-10-15 Parnu Vaprus W 6-130.5 1094 603 80.70% 15.34% 3.96%+3.38 +10.1 22
1994-10-15 @ Narva Trans L 1-630.5 603 1094 3.96% 15.34% 80.70%-3.38 -10.1 4
1994-10-18 Sadam Tallinn W 1-041.0 1132 1094 46.46% 17.66% 35.88%+0.21 +22.1 33
1994-10-18 @ Lantana Tallinn L 0-141.0 1094 1132 35.88% 17.66% 46.46%-0.21 -22.1 25
1994-10-18 Flora L 0-328.1 671 1248 2.51% 14.57% 82.92%-4.09 -4.7 10
1994-10-18 @ Norma Tallinn W 3-028.1 1248 671 82.92% 14.57% 2.51%+4.09 +4.7 31
1994-10-18 DAG Tartu W 4-038.1 593 552 46.87% 17.66% 35.47%+0.23 +78.2 7
1994-10-18 @ Parnu Vaprus L 0-438.1 552 593 35.47% 17.66% 46.87%-0.23 -78.2 4
1994-10-18 Narva Trans D 2-257.9 949 1104 21.80% 17.42% 60.78%-1.15 +4.0 18
1994-10-18 @ Polevkivi Johvi D 2-257.9 1104 949 60.78% 17.42% 21.80%+1.15 -4.0 23

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1995-04-21 Norma Tallinn W 4-236.5 1253 667 83.14% 14.48% 2.38%+4.04 +2.4 3
1995-04-21 @ Flora L 2-436.5 667 1253 2.38% 14.48% 83.14%-4.04 -2.4 0
1995-04-21 Lantana Tallinn L 0-338.4 1100 1154 33.72% 17.65% 48.64%-0.43 -57.4 0
1995-04-21 @ Narva Trans W 3-038.4 1154 1100 48.64% 17.65% 33.72%+0.43 +57.4 3
1995-04-21 Sadam Tallinn W 1-047.2 953 1072 25.62% 17.52% 56.85%-0.89 +32.9 3
1995-04-21 @ Polevkivi Johvi L 0-147.2 1072 953 56.85% 17.52% 25.62%+0.89 -33.0 0
1995-04-29 Polevkivi Johvi W 6-030.1 1255 986 70.48% 16.93% 12.60%+1.83 +45.3 6
1995-04-29 @ Flora L 0-630.1 986 1255 12.60% 16.93% 70.48%-1.83 -45.3 3
1995-04-29 Sadam Tallinn W 2-139.9 1212 1039 62.41% 17.37% 20.22%+1.15 +12.6 6
1995-04-29 @ Lantana Tallinn L 1-239.9 1039 1212 20.22% 17.37% 62.41%-1.15 -12.6 0
1995-04-30 Norma Tallinn L 0-152.7 1043 664 76.57% 16.24% 7.19%+2.59 -44.5 0
1995-04-30 @ Narva Trans W 1-052.7 664 1043 7.19% 16.24% 76.57%-2.59 +44.5 3
1995-05-03 Lantana Tallinn L 0-229.4 709 1224 3.48% 15.13% 81.38%-3.66 -4.6 3
1995-05-03 @ Norma Tallinn W 2-029.4 1224 709 81.38% 15.13% 3.48%+3.66 +4.6 9
1995-05-03 Narva Trans W 4-042.3 940 999 33.12% 17.64% 49.24%-0.47 +103.2 6
1995-05-03 @ Polevkivi Johvi L 0-442.3 999 940 49.24% 17.64% 33.12%+0.47 -103.2 0
1995-05-03 Flora L 0-331.8 1027 1301 12.34% 16.90% 70.76%-1.97 -23.2 0
1995-05-03 @ Sadam Tallinn W 3-031.8 1301 1027 70.76% 16.90% 12.34%+1.97 +23.2 9
1995-05-13 Narva Trans W 3-029.4 1324 895 78.60% 15.86% 5.54%+2.94 +10.6 12
1995-05-13 @ Flora L 0-329.4 895 1324 5.54% 15.86% 78.60%-2.94 -10.6 0
1995-05-14 Polevkivi Johvi W 4-137.9 1229 1044 63.66% 17.32% 19.02%+1.24 +29.3 12
1995-05-14 @ Lantana Tallinn L 1-437.9 1044 1229 19.02% 17.32% 63.66%-1.24 -29.3 6
1995-05-14 Sadam Tallinn L 0-331.2 704 1004 10.83% 16.76% 72.41%-2.15 -20.5 3
1995-05-14 @ Norma Tallinn W 3-031.2 1004 704 72.41% 16.76% 10.83%+2.15 +20.5 3
1995-05-21 Norma Tallinn W 4-134.6 1014 684 74.20% 16.57% 9.23%+2.25 +14.8 9
1995-05-21 @ Polevkivi Johvi L 1-434.6 684 1014 9.23% 16.57% 74.20%-2.25 -14.8 3
1995-05-21 Narva Trans L 0-147.8 1024 885 59.04% 17.47% 23.49%+0.92 -34.2 3
1995-05-21 @ Sadam Tallinn W 1-047.8 885 1024 23.49% 17.47% 59.04%-0.92 +34.2 3
1995-05-22 Flora D 1-154.7 1258 1334 30.79% 17.61% 51.60%-0.59 +2.8 13
1995-05-22 @ Lantana Tallinn D 1-154.7 1334 1258 51.60% 17.61% 30.79%+0.59 -2.8 13
1995-05-24 Polevkivi Johvi W 4-041.5 990 1029 35.67% 17.66% 46.68%-0.33 +98.5 6
1995-05-24 @ Sadam Tallinn L 0-441.5 1029 990 46.68% 17.66% 35.67%+0.33 -98.5 9
1995-05-25 Narva Trans L 1-454.3 1261 919 74.79% 16.49% 8.71%+2.33 -100.3 13
1995-05-25 @ Lantana Tallinn W 4-154.3 919 1261 8.71% 16.49% 74.79%-2.33 +100.3 6
1995-05-25 Flora L 1-332.4 669 1332 1.58% 13.73% 84.70%-4.69 -1.7 3
1995-05-25 @ Norma Tallinn W 3-132.4 1332 669 84.70% 13.73% 1.58%+4.69 +1.7 16
1995-05-28 Narva Trans L 0-132.3 667 1019 8.26% 16.42% 75.32%-2.52 -5.8 3
1995-05-28 @ Norma Tallinn W 1-032.3 1019 667 75.32% 16.42% 8.26%+2.52 +5.8 9
1995-05-28 Flora L 0-329.7 931 1333 6.34% 16.06% 77.60%-2.87 -12.1 9
1995-05-28 @ Polevkivi Johvi W 3-029.7 1333 931 77.60% 16.06% 6.34%+2.87 +12.1 19
1995-05-28 Lantana Tallinn L 0-536.4 1088 1161 31.33% 17.62% 51.05%-0.56 -86.8 6
1995-05-28 @ Sadam Tallinn W 5-036.4 1161 1088 51.05% 17.62% 31.33%+0.56 +86.8 16
1995-06-03 Norma Tallinn W 4-027.3 1247 661 83.13% 14.48% 2.39%+4.04 +5.9 19
1995-06-03 @ Lantana Tallinn L 0-427.3 661 1247 2.39% 14.48% 83.13%-4.04 -5.9 3
1995-06-04 Sadam Tallinn W 2-031.5 1346 1002 74.90% 16.48% 8.62%+2.35 +11.3 22
1995-06-04 @ Flora L 0-231.5 1002 1346 8.62% 16.48% 74.90%-2.35 -11.3 6
1995-06-04 Polevkivi Johvi W 2-142.0 1025 919 55.31% 17.56% 27.14%+0.69 +16.4 12
1995-06-04 @ Narva Trans L 1-242.0 919 1025 27.14% 17.56% 55.31%-0.69 -16.4 9
1995-06-14 Flora D 1-154.3 1041 1357 9.98% 16.66% 73.36%-2.26 +9.2 13
1995-06-14 @ Narva Trans D 1-154.3 1357 1041 73.36% 16.66% 9.98%+2.26 -9.2 23
1995-06-14 Lantana Tallinn L 1-335.3 902 1253 8.31% 16.43% 75.26%-2.51 -9.5 9
1995-06-14 @ Polevkivi Johvi W 3-135.3 1253 902 75.26% 16.43% 8.31%+2.51 +9.5 22
1995-06-14 Norma Tallinn W 2-031.5 990 655 74.43% 16.54% 9.03%+2.28 +11.9 9
1995-06-14 @ Sadam Tallinn L 0-231.5 655 990 9.03% 16.54% 74.43%-2.28 -11.8 3
1995-06-18 Lantana Tallinn D 1-154.8 1348 1263 52.69% 17.60% 29.71%+0.54 -3.1 24
1995-06-18 @ Flora D 1-154.8 1263 1348 29.71% 17.60% 52.69%-0.54 +3.1 23
1995-06-18 Sadam Tallinn L 0-144.5 1051 1002 47.93% 17.65% 34.42%+0.28 -28.2 13
1995-06-18 @ Narva Trans W 1-044.5 1002 1051 34.42% 17.65% 47.93%-0.28 +28.2 12
1995-06-18 Polevkivi Johvi L 1-535.1 644 893 13.95% 17.03% 69.01%-1.80 -28.4 3
1995-06-18 @ Norma Tallinn W 5-135.1 893 644 69.01% 17.03% 13.95%+1.80 +28.4 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1995-04-30 7.19% Norma Tallinn 664 1 @ Narva Trans 1043 0
2 1995-05-25 8.71% Narva Trans 919 4 @ Lantana Tallinn 1261 1
3 1994-09-11 15.52% @ DAG Tartu 532 2 Parnu Vaprus 759 0
4 1994-08-14 20.42% Parnu Vaprus 825 2 @ Norma Tallinn 995 1
5 1994-08-14 23.35% @ Lantana Tallinn 840 4 Polevkivi Johvi 981 1
6 1995-05-21 23.49% Narva Trans 885 1 @ Sadam Tallinn 1024 0
7 1995-04-21 25.62% @ Polevkivi Johvi 953 1 Sadam Tallinn 1072 0
8 1994-08-21 33.04% @ Polevkivi Johvi 902 4 Norma Tallinn 961 0
9 1995-05-03 33.12% @ Polevkivi Johvi 940 4 Narva Trans 999 0
10 1995-06-18 34.42% Sadam Tallinn 1002 1 @ Narva Trans 1051 0
11 1995-05-24 35.67% @ Sadam Tallinn 990 4 Polevkivi Johvi 1029 0
12 1994-08-07 36.14% Lantana Tallinn 815 2 @ Parnu Vaprus 850 1
13 1994-08-06 36.81% @ Narva Trans 991 1 Norma Tallinn 1022 0
14 1994-09-07 37.16% Sadam Tallinn 983 2 @ Polevkivi Johvi 1012 1
15 1994-10-12 38.38% Lantana Tallinn 1101 1 @ Narva Trans 1121 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-08-21 103.38 @ Polevkivi Johvi 4 902 33.04% Norma Tallinn 0 961 49.32% 17.64%
2 1995-05-03 103.25 @ Polevkivi Johvi 4 940 33.12% Narva Trans 0 999 49.24% 17.64%
3 1995-05-25 100.28 Narva Trans 4 919 8.71% @ Lantana Tallinn 1 1261 74.79% 16.49%
4 1995-05-24 98.48 @ Sadam Tallinn 4 990 35.67% Polevkivi Johvi 0 1029 46.68% 17.66%
5 1995-05-28 86.80 Lantana Tallinn 5 1161 51.05% @ Sadam Tallinn 0 1088 31.33% 17.62%
6 1994-08-14 79.09 @ Lantana Tallinn 4 840 23.35% Polevkivi Johvi 1 981 59.18% 17.47%
7 1994-10-18 78.24 @ Parnu Vaprus 4 593 46.87% DAG Tartu 0 552 35.47% 17.66%
8 1994-09-11 73.49 @ DAG Tartu 2 532 15.52% Parnu Vaprus 0 759 67.35% 17.14%
9 1994-08-20 65.23 @ Lantana Tallinn 11 920 73.27% DAG Tartu 0 606 10.06% 16.67%
10 1994-08-07 59.63 @ Polevkivi Johvi 6 921 65.88% DAG Tartu 0 712 16.90% 17.22%
11 1995-04-21 57.38 Lantana Tallinn 3 1154 48.64% @ Narva Trans 0 1100 33.72% 17.65%
12 1994-09-11 55.73 @ Flora 12 1192 75.79% Norma Tallinn 0 830 7.85% 16.36%
13 1994-08-26 54.22 Sadam Tallinn 3 929 50.84% @ Parnu Vaprus 0 859 31.54% 17.62%
14 1994-09-18 53.53 @ Sadam Tallinn 6 1008 67.84% Norma Tallinn 0 774 15.05% 17.11%
15 1994-10-04 50.63 @ Lantana Tallinn 10 1050 75.02% Norma Tallinn 0 704 8.52% 16.46%
16 1994-08-14 46.35 Sadam Tallinn 5 880 67.36% @ DAG Tartu 0 652 15.51% 17.14%
17 1995-04-29 45.31 @ Flora 6 1255 70.48% Polevkivi Johvi 0 986 12.60% 16.93%
18 1994-09-07 44.95 Narva Trans 4 992 63.86% @ Parnu Vaprus 0 804 18.83% 17.31%
19 1995-04-30 44.47 Norma Tallinn 1 664 7.19% @ Narva Trans 0 1043 76.57% 16.24%
20 1994-08-30 43.98 Lantana Tallinn 3 985 57.72% @ Norma Tallinn 0 857 24.78% 17.50%
21 1994-10-01 40.74 Polevkivi Johvi 4 955 65.88% @ Norma Tallinn 0 745 16.91% 17.22%
22 1994-09-11 39.95 @ Narva Trans 2 1037 48.18% Polevkivi Johvi 0 986 34.17% 17.65%
23 1994-09-25 39.54 Norma Tallinn 2 705 48.61% @ Parnu Vaprus 0 652 33.75% 17.65%
24 1994-10-14 37.21 @ Sadam Tallinn 2 1057 50.96% Polevkivi Johvi 0 986 31.42% 17.62%
25 1995-05-21 34.17 Narva Trans 1 885 23.49% @ Sadam Tallinn 0 1024 59.04% 17.47%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-08-28 58.4 @ DAG Tartu 2 540 4.69% Narva Trans 2 1000 79.69% 15.61%
2 1994-09-21 58.0 @ Flora 2 1250 63.95% Sadam Tallinn 2 1062 18.74% 17.31%
3 1994-10-18 57.9 @ Polevkivi Johvi 2 949 21.80% Narva Trans 2 1104 60.78% 17.42%
4 1994-08-02 57.8 @ Norma Tallinn 2 1025 57.99% Sadam Tallinn 2 895 24.51% 17.50%
5 1995-06-18 54.8 @ Flora 1 1348 52.69% Lantana Tallinn 1 1263 29.71% 17.60%
6 1995-05-22 54.7 @ Lantana Tallinn 1 1258 30.79% Flora 1 1334 51.60% 17.61%
7 1995-05-25 54.3 Narva Trans 4 919 8.71% @ Lantana Tallinn 1 1261 74.79% 16.49%
8 1995-06-14 54.3 @ Narva Trans 1 1041 9.98% Flora 1 1357 73.36% 16.66%
9 1994-09-25 54.0 @ Narva Trans 1 1092 22.06% Flora 1 1245 60.51% 17.43%
10 1994-08-03 53.8 @ Polevkivi Johvi 1 924 51.62% Parnu Vaprus 1 848 30.77% 17.61%
11 1994-09-11 53.8 @ Sadam Tallinn 1 1009 42.50% Lantana Tallinn 1 999 39.83% 17.67%
12 1995-04-30 52.7 Norma Tallinn 1 664 7.19% @ Narva Trans 0 1043 76.57% 16.24%
13 1994-08-14 52.5 Parnu Vaprus 2 825 20.42% @ Norma Tallinn 1 995 62.20% 17.37%
14 1994-10-15 50.8 @ Flora 0 1253 57.57% Lantana Tallinn 0 1127 24.93% 17.51%
15 1994-08-03 50.7 @ Lantana Tallinn 0 808 18.56% Narva Trans 0 998 64.14% 17.30%
16 1994-08-28 50.7 @ Flora 0 1169 61.55% Polevkivi Johvi 0 1005 21.05% 17.40%
17 1994-08-19 50.6 @ Narva Trans 0 1003 51.70% Sadam Tallinn 0 926 30.69% 17.61%
18 1994-08-14 49.9 @ Lantana Tallinn 4 840 23.35% Polevkivi Johvi 1 981 59.18% 17.47%
19 1994-09-11 49.2 @ DAG Tartu 2 532 15.52% Parnu Vaprus 0 759 67.35% 17.14%
20 1995-05-21 47.8 Narva Trans 1 885 23.49% @ Sadam Tallinn 0 1024 59.04% 17.47%
21 1994-08-07 47.7 Lantana Tallinn 2 815 36.14% @ Parnu Vaprus 1 850 46.20% 17.66%
22 1994-09-07 47.4 Sadam Tallinn 2 983 37.16% @ Polevkivi Johvi 1 1012 45.17% 17.67%
23 1995-04-21 47.2 @ Polevkivi Johvi 1 953 25.62% Sadam Tallinn 0 1072 56.85% 17.52%
24 1995-06-18 44.5 Sadam Tallinn 1 1002 34.42% @ Narva Trans 0 1051 47.93% 17.65%
25 1994-08-06 43.8 @ Narva Trans 1 991 36.81% Norma Tallinn 0 1022 45.53% 17.67%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-06-03 27.3 @ Lantana Tallinn 4 1247 83.13% Norma Tallinn 0 661 2.39% 14.48%
2 1994-09-11 27.5 @ Flora 12 1192 75.79% Norma Tallinn 0 830 7.85% 16.36%
3 1994-10-01 27.7 @ Flora 3 1240 84.01% Parnu Vaprus 0 612 1.91% 14.08%
4 1994-10-04 27.8 @ Lantana Tallinn 10 1050 75.02% Norma Tallinn 0 704 8.52% 16.46%
5 1994-10-18 28.1 Flora 3 1248 82.92% @ Norma Tallinn 0 671 2.51% 14.57%
6 1994-08-20 28.3 @ Lantana Tallinn 11 920 73.27% DAG Tartu 0 606 10.06% 16.67%
7 1994-09-18 28.6 Flora 2 1248 84.30% @ DAG Tartu 0 605 1.76% 13.93%
8 1994-09-26 28.9 @ Sadam Tallinn 3 1066 80.30% DAG Tartu 0 588 4.24% 15.45%
9 1995-05-03 29.4 Lantana Tallinn 2 1224 81.38% @ Norma Tallinn 0 709 3.48% 15.13%
10 1995-05-13 29.4 @ Flora 3 1324 78.60% Narva Trans 0 895 5.54% 15.86%
11 1995-05-28 29.7 Flora 3 1333 77.60% @ Polevkivi Johvi 0 931 6.34% 16.06%
12 1995-04-29 30.1 @ Flora 6 1255 70.48% Polevkivi Johvi 0 986 12.60% 16.93%
13 1994-09-21 30.3 Polevkivi Johvi 3 961 75.60% @ DAG Tartu 0 603 8.01% 16.38%
14 1994-09-21 30.3 Narva Trans 3 1077 75.49% @ Norma Tallinn 0 721 8.11% 16.40%
15 1994-08-02 30.5 @ Flora 2 1127 77.78% DAG Tartu 0 720 6.19% 16.03%
16 1994-10-15 30.5 @ Narva Trans 6 1094 80.70% Parnu Vaprus 1 603 3.96% 15.34%
17 1994-09-18 30.8 @ Sadam Tallinn 6 1008 67.84% Norma Tallinn 0 774 15.05% 17.11%
18 1995-05-14 31.2 Sadam Tallinn 3 1004 72.41% @ Norma Tallinn 0 704 10.83% 16.76%
19 1994-08-07 31.4 @ Polevkivi Johvi 6 921 65.88% DAG Tartu 0 712 16.90% 17.22%
20 1994-08-14 31.4 Sadam Tallinn 5 880 67.36% @ DAG Tartu 0 652 15.51% 17.14%
21 1995-06-04 31.5 @ Flora 2 1346 74.90% Sadam Tallinn 0 1002 8.62% 16.48%
22 1995-06-14 31.5 @ Sadam Tallinn 2 990 74.43% Norma Tallinn 0 655 9.03% 16.54%
23 1995-05-03 31.8 Flora 3 1301 70.76% @ Sadam Tallinn 0 1027 12.34% 16.90%
24 1994-10-02 31.9 Lantana Tallinn 5 1041 79.74% @ DAG Tartu 1 580 4.66% 15.60%
25 1995-05-28 32.3 Narva Trans 1 1019 75.32% @ Norma Tallinn 0 667 8.26% 16.42%