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2004 Meistriliiga Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Levadia

69 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 2000

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Merkuur Tartu

7.19 points above expected

35 points · 27.81 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lootus Alutaguse

11.73 points below expected

5 points · 16.73 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Levadia Champion 28 21 6 1 69 82 14 +68 63.83 +5.17
2 TVMK 28 19 6 3 63 89 29 +60 57.85 +5.15
3 Flora 28 18 4 6 58 83 25 +58 62.64 -4.64
4 Narva Trans 28 15 2 11 47 43 39 +4 42.94 +4.06
5 Merkuur Tartu 28 10 5 13 35 47 58 -11 27.81 +7.19
6 Tulevik Viljandi 28 6 7 15 25 30 53 -23 27.43 -2.43
7 Valga 28 5 2 21 17 30 80 -50 19.85 -2.85
8 Lootus Alutaguse 28 1 2 25 5 11 117 -106 16.73 -11.73

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Merkuur Tartu 35 27.81 +7.19
2 Levadia 69 63.83 +5.17
3 TVMK 63 57.85 +5.15
4 Narva Trans 47 42.94 +4.06
5 Tulevik Viljandi 25 27.43 -2.43

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lootus Alutaguse 5 16.73 -11.73
2 Flora 58 62.64 -4.64
3 Valga 17 19.85 -2.85
4 Tulevik Viljandi 25 27.43 -2.43
5 Narva Trans 47 42.94 +4.06

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Merkuur Tartu 2 May 24 – May 28 1 in 8
2 Flora 7 Apr 20 – Jun 26 1 in 7
3 Levadia 6 May 3 – Jun 4 1 in 7
4 Valga 2 Jul 9 – Jul 18 1 in 6
5 Tulevik Viljandi 2 Jul 23 – Aug 2 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lootus Alutaguse 16 Jun 29 – Oct 31 1 in 203
2 Flora 2 Sep 13 – Sep 19 1 in 158
3 Tulevik Viljandi 5 Mar 28 – Apr 24 1 in 25
4 Valga 8 Apr 20 – Jun 4 1 in 22
5 Levadia 1 Sep 18 – Sep 18 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Levadia 21 Mar 14 – Sep 12 1 in 67
2 Tulevik Viljandi 4 Aug 30 – Sep 25 1 in 60
3 Narva Trans 8 Aug 8 – Oct 3 1 in 53
4 TVMK 13 Jul 24 – Oct 31 1 in 46
5 Merkuur Tartu 5 Jul 19 – Aug 15 1 in 39

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Merkuur Tartu 7 Aug 15 – Oct 3 1 in 53
2 Lootus Alutaguse 22 May 3 – Oct 31 1 in 33
3 Levadia 3 Sep 18 – Sep 29 1 in 25
4 Flora 2 Sep 13 – Sep 19 1 in 19
5 Tulevik Viljandi 7 May 7 – Jul 5 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Levadia 1501 69 +33 13 12.0 +1.0
TVMK 1370 63 +20 11 10.0 +1.0
Flora 1288 58 +14 10 9.6 +0.4
Narva Trans 1170 47 -20 9 10.4 -1.4
Merkuur Tartu 1005 35 -23 7 7.8 -0.8
Tulevik Viljandi 925 25 -31 2 4.3 -2.3
Valga 789 17 +23 4 2.2 +1.8
Lootus Alutaguse 527 5 -15 0 0.9 -0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FLO LEV LA MT NT TVM TV VAL
Flora —
0-1-3
5.72
4-0-0
10.59
4-0-0
9.93
3-0-1
9.24
1-2-1
6.24
2-1-1
10.14
4-0-0
10.46
Levadia
3-1-0
5.64
 —
4-0-0
10.75
3-1-0
10.35
2-1-1
9.52
1-3-0
6.59
4-0-0
9.99
4-0-0
10.58
Lootus Alutaguse
0-0-4
0.88
0-0-4
0.75
 —
0-1-3
3.62
0-0-4
1.58
0-0-4
0.92
0-1-3
3.99
1-0-3
4.88
Merkuur Tartu
0-0-4
1.48
0-1-3
1.07
3-1-0
7.76
 —
2-1-1
2.97
1-0-3
1.59
2-2-0
5.67
2-0-2
7.45
Narva Trans
1-0-3
2.15
1-1-2
1.87
4-0-0
9.83
1-1-2
8.40
 —
0-0-4
3.39
4-0-0
8.26
4-0-0
9.33
TVMK
1-2-1
5.11
0-3-1
4.77
4-0-0
10.54
3-0-1
9.81
4-0-0
7.97
 —
3-1-0
9.97
4-0-0
10.41
Tulevik Viljandi
1-1-2
1.27
0-0-4
1.43
3-1-0
7.37
0-2-2
5.69
0-0-4
3.11
0-1-3
1.43
 —
2-2-0
6.99
Valga
0-0-4
0.98
0-0-4
0.88
3-0-1
6.48
2-0-2
3.91
0-0-4
2.06
0-0-4
1.02
0-2-2
4.37
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +7.5
Allowed 0.90 -6.5
Differential 0.96 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.36%4.91%8.48%4.02%1.79%5.36%29.91%
14.91%3.57%4.02%4.02%2.23%4.46%23.21%
28.48%4.02%5.36%0.89%0.45%1.34%20.54%
34.02%4.02%0.89%0.89%—0.45%10.27%
41.79%2.23%0.45%———4.46%
5+5.36%4.46%1.34%0.45%——11.61%
Total29.91%23.21%20.54%10.27%4.46%11.61%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.85 1.85 +0.00
SD 2.05 2.05 3.34
CV 1.10 1.10 —
Max 13 13 +13
Min 0 0 -13

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%10.71%———17.86%
17.14%3.57%—3.57%——14.29%
214.29%—7.14%3.57%——25.00%
37.14%—————7.14%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+14.29%10.71%—3.57%——28.57%
Total50.00%21.43%17.86%10.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.96 0.89 +2.07
SD 2.55 1.07 2.99
CV 0.86 1.19 —
Max 9 3 +9
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%————14.29%
17.14%3.57%————10.71%
214.29%—7.14%———21.43%
314.29%3.57%————17.86%
43.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
5+14.29%7.14%3.57%———25.00%
Total64.29%21.43%14.29%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.93 0.50 +2.43
SD 2.04 0.75 2.10
CV 0.70 1.49 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%10.71%7.14%3.57%28.57%64.29%
13.57%3.57%3.57%7.14%3.57%10.71%32.14%
2—————3.57%3.57%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%14.29%14.29%14.29%7.14%42.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.39 4.18 -3.79
SD 0.57 3.16 3.19
CV 1.44 0.76 —
Max 2 13 +1
Min 0 0 -13

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%10.71%7.14%—3.57%32.14%
1—3.57%3.57%3.57%—7.14%17.86%
2—14.29%7.14%——3.57%25.00%
3—7.14%———3.57%10.71%
43.57%7.14%————10.71%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total10.71%39.29%21.43%10.71%—17.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 2.07 -0.39
SD 1.70 1.70 2.69
CV 1.01 0.82 —
Max 7 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——21.43%——3.57%25.00%
114.29%3.57%7.14%—3.57%—28.57%
210.71%7.14%3.57%3.57%——25.00%
37.14%10.71%————17.86%
4———————
5+——3.57%———3.57%
Total32.14%21.43%35.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.39 +0.14
SD 1.37 1.40 2.24
CV 0.89 1.00 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%——3.57%——10.71%
1—7.14%—3.57%3.57%—14.29%
214.29%3.57%7.14%———25.00%
33.57%7.14%7.14%———17.86%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+10.71%10.71%3.57%———25.00%
Total39.29%32.14%17.86%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.18 1.04 +2.14
SD 2.86 1.10 3.31
CV 0.90 1.07 —
Max 13 4 +13
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%10.71%3.57%7.14%3.57%—35.71%
17.14%3.57%10.71%3.57%7.14%7.14%39.29%
23.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
3—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
4———————
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total25.00%21.43%21.43%14.29%10.71%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.89 -0.82
SD 1.18 1.66 2.14
CV 1.11 0.88 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%10.71%7.14%7.14%7.14%39.29%
1——7.14%10.71%—10.71%28.57%
210.71%3.57%3.57%—3.57%3.57%25.00%
3———3.57%——3.57%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total10.71%14.29%21.43%21.43%10.71%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 2.86 -1.79
SD 1.18 1.90 2.50
CV 1.11 0.66 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Levadia 1501 69 63.83 +5.17 89.0% 46 57 61 65 67 71 75
TVMK 1370 63 57.85 +5.15 82.0% 43 48 53 58 62 67 72
Flora 1288 58 62.64 -4.64 24.0% 52 54 59 62 66 71 77
Narva Trans 1170 47 42.94 +4.06 76.0% 21 32 39 44 47 52 59
Merkuur Tartu 1005 35 27.81 +7.19 97.0% 16 20 24 28 31 35 37
Tulevik Viljandi 925 25 27.43 -2.43 34.0% 16 18 23 28 31 37 40
Valga 789 17 19.85 -2.85 34.0% 9 10 16 19 23 29 33
Lootus Alutaguse 527 5 16.73 -11.73 3.0% 2 6 13 16 20 26 33

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 1% * Slight Edge: 1% to 4.5% * Clear Edge: 4.5% to 7.5% * Strong Edge: 7.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-9.82%
No Edge
37.50%15.18%47.32%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -34.23 Elo pts.
156 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.15 goals
Neutral
-2-0.22+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.38 * Runaway: 0.38 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
49%
Levadia, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.21/gm
Comfortable
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.48 * Some Luck: 4.48 to 6.72 * Lucky: 6.72 to 8.95 * Wild Swing: 8.95 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.45 * Close: 0.45 to 0.67 * Off: 0.67 to 0.9 * Way Off: 0.9 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.07 points
Some Luck
05.6014
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.25
Pinpoint
00.561.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
97.00%
Merkuur Tartu
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Lootus Alutaguse
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.27 * Even: 0.27 to 0.29 * Top-Heavy: 0.29 to 0.31 * Lopsided: 0.31 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.7 * Moderate Separation: 2.7 to 3 * Strong Separation: 3 to 3.3 * Wide Separation: 3.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 87.5% * Slight Edge: 87.5% to 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 98% * Clear Edge: 98% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 43% * Some Drama: 43% to 46% * Frequent: 46% to 50.5% * Very Frequent: 50.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 28.5% * Occasional: 28.5% to 34% * Frequent: 34% to 39.5% * Very Frequent: 39.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.31
Top-Heavy
00.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 323.37
3.14
Strong Separation
12.733.33.75
Interquartile Edge
92%
Clear Edge
50%87.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
35%
Few
0%33%100%
Blowouts
Expected
38%
Frequent
0%47%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.54 * Slight Separation: 0.54 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.63 * Lopsided: 0.63 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.7 * Some Carryover: 0.7 to 0.84 * Strong Carryover: 0.84 to 0.9 * Near-Lock: 0.9 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Upset-Prone: 15% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 9% * As Expected: 9% to 11% * Shaky Favorites: 11% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.41
Highly Predictable
00.432
Matchup Imbalance
0.65
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.17
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.74
Some Carryover
00.70.841
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Shaky Favorites
0%11%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.05
Borderline
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.02
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.102
Well Within Noise
00.1200.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Levadia49.00%39.00%12.00%—————
TVMK16.00%25.00%55.00%4.00%————
Flora35.00%35.00%30.00%—————
Narva Trans—1.00%3.00%90.00%5.00%——1.00%
Merkuur Tartu———3.00%46.00%38.00%10.00%3.00%
Tulevik Viljandi———3.00%40.00%35.00%19.00%3.00%
Valga————6.00%15.00%47.00%32.00%
Lootus Alutaguse————3.00%12.00%24.00%61.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Flora 100% —
Levadia 100% —
Lootus Alutaguse 39.00% 61.00%
Merkuur Tartu 97.00% 3.00%
Narva Trans 99.00% 1.00%
TVMK 100% —
Tulevik Viljandi 97.00% 3.00%
Valga 68.00% 32.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2004-03-06 Flora D 0-051.9 1029 1370 9.04% 15.23% 75.74%-2.40 +11.1 1
2004-03-06 @ Tulevik Viljandi D 0-051.9 1370 1029 75.74% 15.23% 9.04%+2.40 -11.1 1
2004-03-10 Narva Trans W 2-032.8 1359 1114 69.67% 15.64% 14.69%+1.35 +18.8 4
2004-03-10 @ Flora L 0-232.8 1114 1359 14.69% 15.64% 69.67%-1.35 -18.8 0
2004-03-13 Valga W 2-035.0 1040 889 61.11% 15.92% 22.97%+0.74 +28.4 4
2004-03-13 @ Tulevik Viljandi L 0-235.0 889 1040 22.97% 15.92% 61.11%-0.74 -28.4 0
2004-03-14 Levadia L 0-248.0 1377 1198 64.06% 15.85% 20.09%+0.93 -70.7 4
2004-03-14 @ Flora W 2-048.0 1198 1377 20.09% 15.85% 64.06%-0.93 +70.7 3
2004-03-14 Lootus Alutaguse D 1-154.5 782 923 24.04% 15.95% 60.02%-1.12 +5.0 1
2004-03-14 @ Merkuur Tartu D 1-154.5 923 782 60.02% 15.95% 24.04%+1.12 -5.0 1
2004-03-14 Narva Trans W 2-034.4 1270 1095 63.66% 15.86% 20.48%+0.90 +25.6 3
2004-03-14 @ TVMK L 0-234.4 1095 1270 20.48% 15.86% 63.66%-0.90 -25.6 0
2004-03-22 Flora L 0-130.1 787 1307 3.50% 14.17% 82.34%-3.54 -2.4 1
2004-03-22 @ Merkuur Tartu W 1-030.1 1307 787 82.34% 14.17% 3.50%+3.54 +2.4 7
2004-03-27 Lootus Alutaguse W 5-026.7 1296 917 77.54% 15.03% 7.42%+2.20 +22.8 6
2004-03-27 @ TVMK L 0-526.7 917 1296 7.42% 15.03% 77.54%-2.20 -22.8 1
2004-03-27 Valga W 2-138.5 1069 861 66.67% 15.77% 17.56%+1.11 +11.1 3
2004-03-27 @ Narva Trans L 1-238.5 861 1069 17.56% 15.77% 66.67%-1.11 -11.1 0
2004-03-28 Tulevik Viljandi W 6-133.6 1268 1068 65.96% 15.79% 18.25%+1.06 +44.6 6
2004-03-28 @ Levadia L 1-633.6 1068 1268 18.25% 15.79% 65.96%-1.06 -44.6 4
2004-04-04 Flora L 1-827.8 895 1309 6.14% 14.83% 79.03%-2.87 -21.4 1
2004-04-04 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 8-127.8 1309 895 79.03% 14.83% 6.14%+2.87 +21.4 10
2004-04-04 Levadia L 1-530.4 850 1313 4.74% 14.54% 80.73%-3.18 -9.9 0
2004-04-04 @ Valga W 5-130.4 1313 850 80.73% 14.54% 4.74%+3.18 +9.9 9
2004-04-04 Merkuur Tartu L 1-255.1 1080 785 73.16% 15.44% 11.40%+1.67 -40.5 3
2004-04-04 @ Narva Trans W 2-155.1 785 1080 11.40% 15.44% 73.16%-1.67 +40.5 4
2004-04-04 TVMK L 0-330.0 1024 1319 11.43% 15.44% 73.13%-2.11 -21.5 4
2004-04-04 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 3-030.0 1319 1024 73.13% 15.44% 11.43%+2.11 +21.5 9
2004-04-10 Lootus Alutaguse W 4-026.7 1323 873 80.29% 14.62% 5.09%+2.66 +12.7 12
2004-04-10 @ Levadia L 0-426.7 873 1323 5.09% 14.62% 80.29%-2.66 -12.7 1
2004-04-10 Narva Trans L 0-337.7 1002 1040 36.65% 16.09% 47.26%-0.46 -62.1 4
2004-04-10 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 3-037.7 1040 1002 47.26% 16.09% 36.65%+0.46 +62.1 6
2004-04-10 Merkuur Tartu W 2-040.1 840 825 44.05% 16.10% 39.85%-0.12 +45.9 3
2004-04-10 @ Valga L 0-240.1 825 840 39.85% 16.10% 44.05%+0.12 -45.9 4
2004-04-11 TVMK D 2-260.1 1330 1340 40.54% 16.10% 43.36%-0.28 +0.3 11
2004-04-11 @ Flora D 2-260.1 1340 1330 43.36% 16.10% 40.54%+0.28 -0.3 10
2004-04-19 Levadia D 0-053.0 1340 1336 42.59% 16.10% 41.31%-0.19 -0.2 11
2004-04-19 @ TVMK D 0-053.0 1336 1340 41.31% 16.10% 42.59%+0.19 +0.2 13
2004-04-19 Narva Trans L 2-636.5 861 1102 14.96% 15.65% 69.39%-1.76 -25.7 1
2004-04-19 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 6-236.5 1102 861 69.39% 15.65% 14.96%+1.76 +25.7 9
2004-04-20 Tulevik Viljandi W 2-151.9 779 940 21.94% 15.90% 62.16%-1.25 +34.3 7
2004-04-20 @ Merkuur Tartu L 1-251.9 940 779 62.16% 15.90% 21.94%+1.25 -34.3 4
2004-04-20 Valga W 1-030.8 1331 886 80.13% 14.65% 5.22%+2.63 +3.6 14
2004-04-20 @ Flora L 0-130.8 886 1331 5.22% 14.65% 80.13%-2.63 -3.7 3
2004-04-24 Flora L 1-530.8 906 1334 5.69% 14.75% 79.56%-2.96 -11.9 4
2004-04-24 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 5-130.8 1334 906 79.56% 14.75% 5.69%+2.96 +11.9 17
2004-04-24 Levadia D 1-154.9 1128 1336 17.56% 15.77% 66.67%-1.55 +7.0 10
2004-04-24 @ Narva Trans D 1-154.9 1336 1128 66.67% 15.77% 17.56%+1.55 -7.0 14
2004-04-24 Lootus Alutaguse L 0-144.2 882 835 48.59% 16.08% 35.33%+0.08 -28.9 3
2004-04-24 @ Valga W 1-044.2 835 882 35.33% 16.08% 48.59%-0.08 +28.9 4
2004-04-24 TVMK L 0-228.6 814 1340 3.37% 14.12% 82.51%-3.58 -4.4 7
2004-04-24 @ Merkuur Tartu W 2-028.6 1340 814 82.51% 14.12% 3.37%+3.58 +4.4 14
2004-05-02 TVMK L 2-534.9 853 1344 4.08% 14.36% 81.56%-3.36 -5.7 3
2004-05-02 @ Valga W 5-234.9 1344 853 81.56% 14.36% 4.08%+3.36 +5.7 17
2004-05-03 Flora L 0-233.6 1135 1346 17.28% 15.76% 66.97%-1.57 -21.9 10
2004-05-03 @ Narva Trans W 2-033.6 1346 1135 66.97% 15.76% 17.28%+1.57 +21.9 20
2004-05-03 Merkuur Tartu W 6-024.9 1329 809 82.34% 14.17% 3.50%+3.10 +12.8 17
2004-05-03 @ Levadia L 0-624.9 809 1329 3.50% 14.17% 82.34%-3.10 -12.8 7
2004-05-03 Tulevik Viljandi L 0-141.0 864 894 37.69% 16.09% 46.21%-0.41 -23.2 4
2004-05-03 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 1-041.0 894 864 46.21% 16.09% 37.69%+0.41 +23.2 7
2004-05-07 Tulevik Viljandi W 3-133.5 1350 917 79.71% 14.72% 5.57%+2.55 +6.3 20
2004-05-07 @ TVMK L 1-333.5 917 1350 5.57% 14.72% 79.71%-2.55 -6.4 7
2004-05-08 Lootus Alutaguse W 6-024.8 1368 841 82.54% 14.11% 3.35%+3.15 +12.2 23
2004-05-08 @ Flora L 0-624.8 841 1368 3.35% 14.11% 82.54%-3.15 -12.2 4
2004-05-08 Narva Trans L 0-231.0 797 1113 10.26% 15.34% 74.39%-2.24 -13.4 7
2004-05-08 @ Merkuur Tartu W 2-031.0 1113 797 74.39% 15.34% 10.26%+2.24 +13.4 13
2004-05-08 Valga W 3-027.4 1341 848 81.64% 14.34% 4.02%+2.94 +7.7 20
2004-05-08 @ Levadia L 0-327.4 848 1341 4.02% 14.34% 81.64%-2.94 -7.7 3
2004-05-16 Levadia L 0-130.9 911 1349 5.40% 14.69% 79.91%-3.02 -3.8 7
2004-05-16 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 1-030.9 1349 911 79.91% 14.69% 5.40%+3.02 +3.8 23
2004-05-16 Narva Trans L 0-231.5 840 1126 11.97% 15.48% 72.56%-2.05 -15.5 3
2004-05-16 @ Valga W 2-031.5 1126 840 72.56% 15.48% 11.97%+2.05 +15.5 16
2004-05-16 Merkuur Tartu W 3-026.7 1380 783 84.09% 13.61% 2.29%+3.60 +4.3 26
2004-05-16 @ Flora L 0-326.7 783 1380 2.29% 13.61% 84.09%-3.60 -4.3 7
2004-05-16 TVMK L 0-228.6 828 1356 3.34% 14.11% 82.55%-3.60 -4.4 4
2004-05-16 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 2-028.6 1356 828 82.55% 14.11% 3.34%+3.60 +4.4 23
2004-05-22 Flora L 0-624.6 825 1385 2.81% 13.88% 83.31%-3.80 -10.2 3
2004-05-22 @ Valga W 6-024.6 1385 825 83.31% 13.88% 2.81%+3.80 +10.2 29
2004-05-24 Lootus Alutaguse W 1-032.5 1142 824 74.48% 15.34% 10.19%+1.81 +7.0 19
2004-05-24 @ Narva Trans L 0-132.5 824 1142 10.19% 15.34% 74.48%-1.81 -7.0 4
2004-05-24 Merkuur Tartu L 1-448.4 907 779 58.66% 15.97% 25.37%+0.60 -79.4 7
2004-05-24 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 4-148.4 779 907 25.37% 15.97% 58.66%-0.60 +79.4 10
2004-05-24 TVMK W 3-041.7 1353 1361 40.84% 16.10% 43.06%-0.27 +71.2 26
2004-05-24 @ Levadia L 0-341.7 1361 1353 43.06% 16.10% 40.84%+0.27 -71.2 23
2004-05-28 Levadia L 0-524.7 817 1424 2.17% 13.54% 84.29%-4.10 -6.6 4
2004-05-28 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 5-024.7 1424 817 84.29% 13.54% 2.17%+4.10 +6.6 29
2004-05-28 Tulevik Viljandi W 1-032.4 1149 828 74.67% 15.32% 10.01%+1.83 +6.9 22
2004-05-28 @ Narva Trans L 0-132.4 828 1149 10.01% 15.32% 74.67%-1.83 -6.9 7
2004-05-28 Valga W 4-036.3 858 814 48.12% 16.08% 35.80%+0.06 +79.5 13
2004-05-28 @ Merkuur Tartu L 0-436.3 814 858 35.80% 16.08% 48.12%-0.06 -79.5 3
2004-06-04 Levadia L 1-333.0 938 1431 4.04% 14.34% 81.62%-3.37 -4.6 13
2004-06-04 @ Merkuur Tartu W 3-133.0 1431 938 81.62% 14.34% 4.04%+3.37 +4.6 32
2004-06-04 Lootus Alutaguse D 0-051.4 821 810 43.42% 16.10% 40.48%-0.15 -0.4 8
2004-06-04 @ Tulevik Viljandi D 0-051.4 810 821 40.48% 16.10% 43.42%+0.15 +0.4 5
2004-06-04 Valga W 3-132.4 1289 735 83.19% 13.92% 2.89%+3.33 +3.3 26
2004-06-04 @ TVMK L 1-332.4 735 1289 2.89% 13.92% 83.19%-3.33 -3.3 3
2004-06-26 Flora L 1-441.1 1293 1395 28.36% 16.02% 55.62%-0.87 -41.9 26
2004-06-26 @ TVMK W 4-141.1 1395 1293 55.62% 16.02% 28.36%+0.87 +41.9 32
2004-06-29 Merkuur Tartu L 1-241.1 811 933 26.00% 15.98% 58.02%-1.00 -15.9 5
2004-06-29 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 2-141.1 933 811 58.02% 15.98% 26.00%+1.00 +15.8 16
2004-06-29 Tulevik Viljandi D 3-362.5 732 820 30.00% 16.04% 53.96%-0.79 +2.0 4
2004-06-29 @ Valga D 3-362.5 820 732 53.96% 16.04% 30.00%+0.79 -2.0 9
2004-06-30 Flora D 2-264.1 1435 1437 41.73% 16.10% 42.17%-0.23 +0.0 33
2004-06-30 @ Levadia D 2-264.1 1437 1435 42.17% 16.10% 41.73%+0.23 -0.0 33
2004-06-30 TVMK L 1-439.8 1156 1251 29.18% 16.03% 54.79%-0.83 -43.0 22
2004-06-30 @ Narva Trans W 4-139.8 1251 1156 54.79% 16.03% 29.18%+0.83 +43.0 29
2004-07-05 Narva Trans W 2-031.5 1435 1113 74.77% 15.31% 9.92%+1.85 +12.9 36
2004-07-05 @ Levadia L 0-231.5 1113 1435 9.92% 15.31% 74.77%-1.85 -12.9 22
2004-07-05 Tulevik Viljandi W 4-025.4 1437 818 84.51% 13.45% 2.04%+3.74 +5.0 36
2004-07-05 @ Flora L 0-425.4 818 1437 2.04% 13.45% 84.51%-3.74 -5.0 9
2004-07-08 TVMK L 1-531.9 949 1294 8.85% 15.21% 75.94%-2.42 -18.3 16
2004-07-08 @ Merkuur Tartu W 5-131.9 1294 949 75.94% 15.21% 8.85%+2.42 +18.3 32
2004-07-09 Levadia L 0-246.5 1442 1448 41.02% 16.10% 42.88%-0.26 -47.0 36
2004-07-09 @ Flora W 2-046.5 1448 1442 42.88% 16.10% 41.02%+0.26 +47.0 39
2004-07-09 Valga L 0-243.2 795 734 50.45% 16.07% 33.48%+0.17 -56.3 5
2004-07-09 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 2-043.2 734 795 33.48% 16.07% 50.45%-0.17 +56.3 7
2004-07-18 Lootus Alutaguse W 5-139.8 790 739 49.12% 16.08% 34.80%+0.11 +64.7 10
2004-07-18 @ Valga L 1-539.8 739 790 34.80% 16.08% 49.12%-0.11 -64.7 5
2004-07-19 Levadia L 0-627.0 1100 1495 6.78% 14.94% 78.28%-2.75 -24.8 22
2004-07-19 @ Narva Trans W 6-027.0 1495 1100 78.28% 14.94% 6.78%+2.75 +24.8 42
2004-07-19 Merkuur Tartu L 1-355.2 1312 931 77.67% 15.02% 7.31%+2.22 -74.7 32
2004-07-19 @ TVMK W 3-155.2 931 1312 7.31% 15.02% 77.67%-2.22 +74.7 19
2004-07-23 Valga W 2-147.7 813 855 36.13% 16.09% 47.78%-0.48 +26.8 12
2004-07-23 @ Tulevik Viljandi L 1-247.7 855 813 47.78% 16.09% 36.13%+0.48 -26.8 10
2004-07-24 Lootus Alutaguse W 4-133.4 1005 674 75.25% 15.27% 9.48%+1.90 +15.2 22
2004-07-24 @ Merkuur Tartu L 1-433.4 674 1005 9.48% 15.27% 75.25%-1.90 -15.2 5
2004-07-24 Narva Trans W 2-034.7 1237 1075 62.37% 15.89% 21.74%+0.82 +27.0 35
2004-07-24 @ TVMK L 0-234.7 1075 1237 21.74% 15.89% 62.37%-0.82 -27.0 22
2004-08-02 Flora L 0-230.8 1048 1395 8.76% 15.20% 76.05%-2.44 -11.5 22
2004-08-02 @ Narva Trans W 2-030.8 1395 1048 76.05% 15.20% 8.76%+2.44 +11.5 39
2004-08-02 Tulevik Viljandi L 1-338.1 659 840 19.95% 15.85% 64.20%-1.38 -21.6 5
2004-08-02 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 3-138.1 840 659 64.20% 15.85% 19.95%+1.38 +21.6 15
2004-08-02 TVMK L 0-526.0 828 1264 5.45% 14.70% 79.85%-3.01 -16.8 10
2004-08-02 @ Valga W 5-026.0 1264 828 79.85% 14.70% 5.45%+3.01 +16.8 38
2004-08-03 Merkuur Tartu D 0-052.6 1520 1021 81.80% 14.30% 3.90%+2.98 -13.1 43
2004-08-03 @ Levadia D 0-052.6 1021 1520 3.90% 14.30% 81.80%-2.98 +13.1 23
2004-08-07 Lootus Alutaguse W 7-023.0 1507 637 88.10% 11.39% 0.51%+5.34 +2.0 46
2004-08-07 @ Levadia L 0-723.0 637 1507 0.51% 11.39% 88.10%-5.34 -2.0 5
2004-08-08 Narva Trans L 1-239.4 862 1036 20.55% 15.86% 63.58%-1.34 -12.8 15
2004-08-08 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 2-139.4 1036 862 63.58% 15.86% 20.55%+1.34 +12.8 25
2004-08-08 Merkuur Tartu L 1-731.9 811 1034 16.37% 15.72% 67.91%-1.64 -47.7 10
2004-08-08 @ Valga W 7-131.9 1034 811 67.91% 15.72% 16.37%+1.64 +47.7 26
2004-08-08 TVMK L 2-356.7 1406 1281 58.30% 15.98% 25.72%+0.58 -30.6 39
2004-08-08 @ Flora W 3-256.7 1281 1406 25.72% 15.98% 58.30%-0.58 +30.6 41
2004-08-14 Valga W 2-028.0 1376 763 84.39% 13.50% 2.11%+3.70 +2.8 42
2004-08-14 @ Flora L 0-228.0 763 1376 2.11% 13.50% 84.39%-3.70 -2.7 10
2004-08-15 Tulevik Viljandi D 0-051.5 1081 849 68.71% 15.68% 15.60%+1.27 -8.6 27
2004-08-15 @ Merkuur Tartu D 0-051.5 849 1081 15.60% 15.68% 68.71%-1.27 +8.6 16
2004-08-16 Narva Trans L 0-328.1 635 1049 6.15% 14.83% 79.02%-2.87 -11.8 5
2004-08-16 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 3-028.1 1049 635 79.02% 14.83% 6.15%+2.87 +11.8 28
2004-08-21 Lootus Alutaguse W 13-024.2 1312 623 85.70% 12.90% 1.39%+4.18 +10.4 44
2004-08-21 @ TVMK L 0-1324.2 623 1312 1.39% 12.90% 85.70%-4.18 -10.4 5
2004-08-22 Tulevik Viljandi W 1-029.5 1509 857 85.10% 13.19% 1.70%+3.95 +1.2 49
2004-08-22 @ Levadia L 0-129.5 857 1509 1.70% 13.19% 85.10%-3.95 -1.2 16
2004-08-22 Valga W 3-135.3 1061 761 73.46% 15.42% 11.12%+1.70 +12.5 31
2004-08-22 @ Narva Trans L 1-335.3 761 1061 11.12% 15.42% 73.46%-1.70 -12.5 10
2004-08-23 Flora L 3-542.1 1073 1378 10.84% 15.39% 73.77%-2.17 -10.3 27
2004-08-23 @ Merkuur Tartu W 5-342.1 1378 1073 73.77% 15.39% 10.84%+2.17 +10.3 45
2004-08-29 Flora L 0-623.5 613 1389 0.86% 12.19% 86.95%-5.18 -3.0 5
2004-08-29 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 6-023.5 1389 613 86.95% 12.19% 0.86%+5.18 +3.0 48
2004-08-30 Levadia L 2-435.3 748 1510 0.93% 12.30% 86.77%-5.09 -0.9 10
2004-08-30 @ Valga W 4-235.3 1510 748 86.77% 12.30% 0.93%+5.09 +0.9 52
2004-08-30 Merkuur Tartu D 2-258.6 1073 1063 43.51% 16.10% 40.39%-0.15 -0.3 32
2004-08-30 @ Narva Trans D 2-258.6 1063 1073 40.39% 16.10% 43.51%+0.15 +0.3 28
2004-08-30 TVMK D 1-155.0 856 1322 4.66% 14.52% 80.82%-3.20 +11.4 17
2004-08-30 @ Tulevik Viljandi D 1-155.0 1322 856 80.82% 14.52% 4.66%+3.20 -11.5 45
2004-09-12 Levadia L 2-536.1 1063 1511 5.13% 14.63% 80.24%-3.09 -7.2 28
2004-09-12 @ Merkuur Tartu W 5-236.1 1511 1063 80.24% 14.63% 5.13%+3.09 +7.2 55
2004-09-12 Lootus Alutaguse W 5-028.8 868 610 70.62% 15.59% 13.79%+1.43 +41.4 20
2004-09-12 @ Tulevik Viljandi L 0-528.8 610 868 13.79% 15.59% 70.62%-1.43 -41.4 5
2004-09-12 Valga W 4-025.7 1311 747 83.39% 13.86% 2.75%+3.39 +6.8 48
2004-09-12 @ TVMK L 0-425.7 747 1311 2.75% 13.86% 83.39%-3.39 -6.8 10
2004-09-13 Narva Trans L 1-354.7 1392 1073 74.53% 15.33% 10.14%+1.82 -71.6 48
2004-09-13 @ Flora W 3-154.7 1073 1392 10.14% 15.33% 74.53%-1.82 +71.6 35
2004-09-18 Narva Trans L 0-154.0 1518 1145 77.32% 15.06% 7.62%+2.17 -45.5 55
2004-09-18 @ Levadia W 1-054.0 1145 1518 7.62% 15.06% 77.32%-2.17 +45.5 38
2004-09-19 Merkuur Tartu W 5-133.5 1318 1056 70.92% 15.58% 13.50%+1.46 +27.5 51
2004-09-19 @ TVMK L 1-533.5 1056 1318 13.50% 15.58% 70.92%-1.46 -27.5 28
2004-09-19 Tulevik Viljandi L 0-153.0 1320 909 78.90% 14.85% 6.25%+2.41 -46.5 48
2004-09-19 @ Flora W 1-053.0 909 1320 6.25% 14.85% 78.90%-2.41 +46.5 23
2004-09-19 Valga L 0-234.3 568 740 20.83% 15.87% 63.29%-1.32 -26.0 5
2004-09-19 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 2-034.3 740 568 63.29% 15.87% 20.83%+1.32 +26.0 13
2004-09-24 TVMK D 0-055.5 1473 1345 58.61% 15.97% 25.42%+0.60 -5.2 56
2004-09-24 @ Levadia D 0-055.5 1345 1473 25.42% 15.97% 58.61%-0.60 +5.2 52
2004-09-25 Flora L 1-628.7 766 1274 3.73% 14.25% 82.02%-3.46 -9.5 13
2004-09-25 @ Valga W 6-128.7 1274 766 82.02% 14.25% 3.73%+3.46 +9.5 51
2004-09-25 Lootus Alutaguse W 1-029.3 1190 542 85.04% 13.22% 1.74%+3.92 +1.2 41
2004-09-25 @ Narva Trans L 0-129.3 542 1190 1.74% 13.22% 85.04%-3.92 -1.2 5
2004-09-25 Merkuur Tartu D 2-258.6 956 1028 32.01% 16.06% 51.94%-0.68 +2.0 24
2004-09-25 @ Tulevik Viljandi D 2-258.6 1028 956 51.94% 16.06% 32.01%+0.68 -2.0 29
2004-09-29 Levadia D 2-262.7 1350 1468 26.59% 15.99% 57.42%-0.97 +3.2 53
2004-09-29 @ TVMK D 2-262.7 1468 1350 57.42% 15.99% 26.59%+0.97 -3.2 57
2004-10-03 Flora D 1-155.7 1353 1283 51.63% 16.06% 32.31%+0.23 -2.6 54
2004-10-03 @ TVMK D 1-155.7 1283 1353 32.31% 16.06% 51.63%-0.23 +2.6 52
2004-10-03 Levadia L 0-325.3 541 1464 0.38% 10.93% 88.68%-6.12 -0.7 5
2004-10-03 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 3-025.3 1464 541 88.68% 10.93% 0.38%+6.12 +0.7 60
2004-10-03 Tulevik Viljandi W 2-032.7 1191 958 68.81% 15.68% 15.51%+1.28 +19.8 44
2004-10-03 @ Narva Trans L 0-232.7 958 1191 15.51% 15.68% 68.81%-1.28 -19.8 24
2004-10-03 Valga L 1-254.6 1026 757 71.44% 15.55% 13.01%+1.50 -39.5 29
2004-10-03 @ Merkuur Tartu W 2-154.6 757 1026 13.01% 15.55% 71.44%-1.50 +39.5 16
2004-10-16 Narva Trans W 2-153.7 987 1211 16.23% 15.71% 68.06%-1.66 +37.6 32
2004-10-16 @ Merkuur Tartu L 1-253.7 1211 987 68.06% 15.71% 16.23%+1.66 -37.6 44
2004-10-16 Valga W 3-026.3 1465 796 85.39% 13.06% 1.55%+4.06 +2.9 63
2004-10-16 @ Levadia L 0-326.3 796 1465 1.55% 13.06% 85.39%-4.06 -2.9 16
2004-10-17 Tulevik Viljandi W 2-134.9 1351 938 78.98% 14.84% 6.18%+2.42 +4.1 57
2004-10-17 @ TVMK L 1-234.9 938 1351 6.18% 14.84% 78.98%-2.42 -4.1 24
2004-10-18 Lootus Alutaguse W 9-023.6 1286 541 86.54% 12.44% 1.02%+4.55 +5.3 55
2004-10-18 @ Flora L 0-923.6 541 1286 1.02% 12.44% 86.54%-4.55 -5.3 5
2004-10-23 Levadia L 1-431.4 934 1468 3.23% 14.06% 82.71%-3.64 -5.2 24
2004-10-23 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 4-131.4 1468 934 82.71% 14.06% 3.23%+3.64 +5.2 66
2004-10-23 Narva Trans L 1-334.1 793 1174 7.35% 15.02% 77.62%-2.65 -8.4 16
2004-10-23 @ Valga W 3-134.1 1174 793 77.62% 15.02% 7.35%+2.65 +8.4 47
2004-10-23 Merkuur Tartu W 3-030.6 1291 1024 71.26% 15.56% 13.18%+1.49 +24.7 58
2004-10-23 @ Flora L 0-330.6 1024 1291 13.18% 15.56% 71.26%-1.49 -24.7 32
2004-10-23 TVMK L 1-1024.3 535 1355 0.68% 11.82% 87.50%-5.46 -2.8 5
2004-10-23 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 10-124.3 1355 535 87.50% 11.82% 0.68%+5.46 +2.8 60
2004-10-31 Flora W 2-038.1 1473 1316 61.83% 15.91% 22.26%+0.79 +27.6 69
2004-10-31 @ Levadia L 0-238.1 1316 1473 22.26% 15.91% 61.83%-0.79 -27.6 58
2004-10-31 Merkuur Tartu L 1-333.1 532 1000 4.63% 14.51% 80.86%-3.21 -5.3 5
2004-10-31 @ Lootus Alutaguse W 3-133.1 1000 532 80.86% 14.51% 4.63%+3.21 +5.3 35
2004-10-31 Tulevik Viljandi D 2-258.6 785 929 23.70% 15.94% 60.36%-1.14 +3.8 17
2004-10-31 @ Valga D 2-258.6 929 785 60.36% 15.94% 23.70%+1.14 -3.8 25
2004-10-31 TVMK L 2-344.2 1182 1358 20.47% 15.86% 63.67%-1.34 -12.1 47
2004-10-31 @ Narva Trans W 3-244.2 1358 1182 63.67% 15.86% 20.47%+1.34 +12.1 63

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-09-19 6.25% Tulevik Viljandi 909 1 @ Flora 1320 0
2 2004-07-19 7.31% Merkuur Tartu 931 3 @ TVMK 1312 1
3 2004-09-18 7.62% Narva Trans 1145 1 @ Levadia 1518 0
4 2004-09-13 10.14% Narva Trans 1073 3 @ Flora 1392 1
5 2004-04-04 11.40% Merkuur Tartu 785 2 @ Narva Trans 1080 1
6 2004-10-03 13.01% Valga 757 2 @ Merkuur Tartu 1026 1
7 2004-10-16 16.23% @ Merkuur Tartu 987 2 Narva Trans 1211 1
8 2004-03-14 20.09% Levadia 1198 2 @ Flora 1377 0
9 2004-04-20 21.94% @ Merkuur Tartu 779 2 Tulevik Viljandi 940 1
10 2004-05-24 25.37% Merkuur Tartu 779 4 @ Tulevik Viljandi 907 1
11 2004-08-08 25.72% TVMK 1281 3 @ Flora 1406 2
12 2004-07-09 33.48% Valga 734 2 @ Lootus Alutaguse 795 0
13 2004-04-24 35.33% Lootus Alutaguse 835 1 @ Valga 882 0
14 2004-07-23 36.13% @ Tulevik Viljandi 813 2 Valga 855 1
15 2004-05-24 40.84% @ Levadia 1353 3 TVMK 1361 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-05-28 79.51 @ Merkuur Tartu 4 858 48.12% Valga 0 814 35.80% 16.08%
2 2004-05-24 79.42 Merkuur Tartu 4 779 25.37% @ Tulevik Viljandi 1 907 58.66% 15.97%
3 2004-07-19 74.71 Merkuur Tartu 3 931 7.31% @ TVMK 1 1312 77.67% 15.02%
4 2004-09-13 71.58 Narva Trans 3 1073 10.14% @ Flora 1 1392 74.53% 15.33%
5 2004-05-24 71.18 @ Levadia 3 1353 40.84% TVMK 0 1361 43.06% 16.10%
6 2004-03-14 70.72 Levadia 2 1198 20.09% @ Flora 0 1377 64.06% 15.85%
7 2004-07-18 64.68 @ Valga 5 790 49.12% Lootus Alutaguse 1 739 34.80% 16.08%
8 2004-04-10 62.11 Narva Trans 3 1040 47.26% @ Tulevik Viljandi 0 1002 36.65% 16.09%
9 2004-07-09 56.30 Valga 2 734 33.48% @ Lootus Alutaguse 0 795 50.45% 16.07%
10 2004-08-08 47.71 Merkuur Tartu 7 1034 67.91% @ Valga 1 811 16.37% 15.72%
11 2004-07-09 47.04 Levadia 2 1448 42.88% @ Flora 0 1442 41.02% 16.10%
12 2004-09-19 46.48 Tulevik Viljandi 1 909 6.25% @ Flora 0 1320 78.90% 14.85%
13 2004-04-10 45.90 @ Valga 2 840 44.05% Merkuur Tartu 0 825 39.85% 16.10%
14 2004-09-18 45.53 Narva Trans 1 1145 7.62% @ Levadia 0 1518 77.32% 15.06%
15 2004-03-28 44.58 @ Levadia 6 1268 65.96% Tulevik Viljandi 1 1068 18.25% 15.79%
16 2004-06-30 43.00 TVMK 4 1251 54.79% @ Narva Trans 1 1156 29.18% 16.03%
17 2004-06-26 41.94 Flora 4 1395 55.62% @ TVMK 1 1293 28.36% 16.02%
18 2004-09-12 41.45 @ Tulevik Viljandi 5 868 70.62% Lootus Alutaguse 0 610 13.79% 15.59%
19 2004-04-04 40.54 Merkuur Tartu 2 785 11.40% @ Narva Trans 1 1080 73.16% 15.44%
20 2004-10-03 39.54 Valga 2 757 13.01% @ Merkuur Tartu 1 1026 71.44% 15.55%
21 2004-10-16 37.61 @ Merkuur Tartu 2 987 16.23% Narva Trans 1 1211 68.06% 15.71%
22 2004-04-20 34.31 @ Merkuur Tartu 2 779 21.94% Tulevik Viljandi 1 940 62.16% 15.90%
23 2004-08-08 30.58 TVMK 3 1281 25.72% @ Flora 2 1406 58.30% 15.98%
24 2004-04-24 28.87 Lootus Alutaguse 1 835 35.33% @ Valga 0 882 48.59% 16.08%
25 2004-03-13 28.38 @ Tulevik Viljandi 2 1040 61.11% Valga 0 889 22.97% 15.92%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-06-30 64.1 @ Levadia 2 1435 41.73% Flora 2 1437 42.17% 16.10%
2 2004-09-29 62.7 @ TVMK 2 1350 26.59% Levadia 2 1468 57.42% 15.99%
3 2004-06-29 62.5 @ Valga 3 732 30.00% Tulevik Viljandi 3 820 53.96% 16.04%
4 2004-04-11 60.1 @ Flora 2 1330 40.54% TVMK 2 1340 43.36% 16.10%
5 2004-08-30 58.6 @ Narva Trans 2 1073 43.51% Merkuur Tartu 2 1063 40.39% 16.10%
6 2004-09-25 58.6 @ Tulevik Viljandi 2 956 32.01% Merkuur Tartu 2 1028 51.94% 16.06%
7 2004-10-31 58.6 @ Valga 2 785 23.70% Tulevik Viljandi 2 929 60.36% 15.94%
8 2004-08-08 56.7 TVMK 3 1281 25.72% @ Flora 2 1406 58.30% 15.98%
9 2004-10-03 55.7 @ TVMK 1 1353 51.63% Flora 1 1283 32.31% 16.06%
10 2004-09-24 55.5 @ Levadia 0 1473 58.61% TVMK 0 1345 25.42% 15.97%
11 2004-07-19 55.2 Merkuur Tartu 3 931 7.31% @ TVMK 1 1312 77.67% 15.02%
12 2004-04-04 55.1 Merkuur Tartu 2 785 11.40% @ Narva Trans 1 1080 73.16% 15.44%
13 2004-08-30 55.0 @ Tulevik Viljandi 1 856 4.66% TVMK 1 1322 80.82% 14.52%
14 2004-04-24 54.9 @ Narva Trans 1 1128 17.56% Levadia 1 1336 66.67% 15.77%
15 2004-09-13 54.7 Narva Trans 3 1073 10.14% @ Flora 1 1392 74.53% 15.33%
16 2004-10-03 54.6 Valga 2 757 13.01% @ Merkuur Tartu 1 1026 71.44% 15.55%
17 2004-03-14 54.5 @ Merkuur Tartu 1 782 24.04% Lootus Alutaguse 1 923 60.02% 15.95%
18 2004-09-18 54.0 Narva Trans 1 1145 7.62% @ Levadia 0 1518 77.32% 15.06%
19 2004-10-16 53.7 @ Merkuur Tartu 2 987 16.23% Narva Trans 1 1211 68.06% 15.71%
20 2004-04-19 53.0 @ TVMK 0 1340 42.59% Levadia 0 1336 41.31% 16.10%
21 2004-09-19 53.0 Tulevik Viljandi 1 909 6.25% @ Flora 0 1320 78.90% 14.85%
22 2004-08-03 52.6 @ Levadia 0 1520 81.80% Merkuur Tartu 0 1021 3.90% 14.30%
23 2004-03-06 51.9 @ Tulevik Viljandi 0 1029 9.04% Flora 0 1370 75.74% 15.23%
24 2004-04-20 51.9 @ Merkuur Tartu 2 779 21.94% Tulevik Viljandi 1 940 62.16% 15.90%
25 2004-08-15 51.5 @ Merkuur Tartu 0 1081 68.71% Tulevik Viljandi 0 849 15.60% 15.68%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-08-07 23.0 @ Levadia 7 1507 88.10% Lootus Alutaguse 0 637 0.51% 11.39%
2 2004-08-29 23.5 Flora 6 1389 86.95% @ Lootus Alutaguse 0 613 0.86% 12.19%
3 2004-10-18 23.6 @ Flora 9 1286 86.54% Lootus Alutaguse 0 541 1.02% 12.44%
4 2004-08-21 24.2 @ TVMK 13 1312 85.70% Lootus Alutaguse 0 623 1.39% 12.90%
5 2004-10-23 24.3 TVMK 10 1355 87.50% @ Lootus Alutaguse 1 535 0.68% 11.82%
6 2004-05-22 24.6 Flora 6 1385 83.31% @ Valga 0 825 2.81% 13.88%
7 2004-05-28 24.7 Levadia 5 1424 84.29% @ Lootus Alutaguse 0 817 2.17% 13.54%
8 2004-05-08 24.8 @ Flora 6 1368 82.54% Lootus Alutaguse 0 841 3.35% 14.11%
9 2004-05-03 24.9 @ Levadia 6 1329 82.34% Merkuur Tartu 0 809 3.50% 14.17%
10 2004-10-03 25.3 Levadia 3 1464 88.68% @ Lootus Alutaguse 0 541 0.38% 10.93%
11 2004-07-05 25.4 @ Flora 4 1437 84.51% Tulevik Viljandi 0 818 2.04% 13.45%
12 2004-09-12 25.7 @ TVMK 4 1311 83.39% Valga 0 747 2.75% 13.86%
13 2004-08-02 26.0 TVMK 5 1264 79.85% @ Valga 0 828 5.45% 14.70%
14 2004-10-16 26.3 @ Levadia 3 1465 85.39% Valga 0 796 1.55% 13.06%
15 2004-03-27 26.7 @ TVMK 5 1296 77.54% Lootus Alutaguse 0 917 7.42% 15.03%
16 2004-04-10 26.7 @ Levadia 4 1323 80.29% Lootus Alutaguse 0 873 5.09% 14.62%
17 2004-05-16 26.7 @ Flora 3 1380 84.09% Merkuur Tartu 0 783 2.29% 13.61%
18 2004-07-19 27.0 Levadia 6 1495 78.28% @ Narva Trans 0 1100 6.78% 14.94%
19 2004-05-08 27.4 @ Levadia 3 1341 81.64% Valga 0 848 4.02% 14.34%
20 2004-04-04 27.8 Flora 8 1309 79.03% @ Lootus Alutaguse 1 895 6.14% 14.83%
21 2004-08-14 28.0 @ Flora 2 1376 84.39% Valga 0 763 2.11% 13.50%
22 2004-08-16 28.1 Narva Trans 3 1049 79.02% @ Lootus Alutaguse 0 635 6.15% 14.83%
23 2004-04-24 28.6 TVMK 2 1340 82.51% @ Merkuur Tartu 0 814 3.37% 14.12%
24 2004-05-16 28.6 TVMK 2 1356 82.55% @ Lootus Alutaguse 0 828 3.34% 14.11%
25 2004-09-25 28.7 Flora 6 1274 82.02% @ Valga 1 766 3.73% 14.25%