Home / Leagues / Faroe Islands / 1. deild / 1995
‹ ›

1995 1. deild Season

89 games

Final

Champion

GI Gota

38 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 1994.0

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

B36 Torshavn

9.37 points above expected

26 points · 16.63 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

NSI Runavik

7.65 points below expected

8 points · 15.65 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 GI Gota Champion 17 12 2 3 38 38 16 +22 34.38 +3.62
2 HB Torshavn 18 9 6 3 33 34 14 +20 36.79 -3.79
3 B68 Toftir 18 9 3 6 30 43 21 +22 24.32 +5.68
4 B71 Sandoy 18 9 2 7 29 35 27 +8 29.55 -0.55
5 B36 Torshavn 18 8 2 8 26 23 35 -12 16.63 +9.37
6 FS Vagar 18 6 5 7 23 30 38 -8 24.89 -1.89
7 TB Tvoroyri 18 6 4 8 22 23 29 -6 18.35 +3.65
8 KI Klaksvik 18 6 4 8 22 31 43 -12 28.56 -6.56
9 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 17 6 2 9 20 26 36 -10 21.99 -1.99
10 NSI Runavik 18 2 2 14 8 13 37 -24 15.65 -7.65

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 B36 Torshavn 26 16.63 +9.37
2 B68 Toftir 30 24.32 +5.68
3 TB Tvoroyri 22 18.35 +3.65
4 GI Gota 38 34.38 +3.62
5 B71 Sandoy 29 29.55 -0.55

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 NSI Runavik 8 15.65 -7.65
2 KI Klaksvik 22 28.56 -6.56
3 HB Torshavn 33 36.79 -3.79
4 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 20 21.99 -1.99
5 FS Vagar 23 24.89 -1.89

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B68 Toftir 3 May 14 – May 28 1 in 76
2 B36 Torshavn 3 Jun 3 – Jun 18 1 in 69
3 TB Tvoroyri 3 Jun 11 – Jun 24 1 in 64
4 GI Gota 7 Sep 3 – Oct 15 1 in 31
5 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 3 Aug 27 – Sep 10 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 6 May 21 – Jun 24 1 in 581
2 NSI Runavik 6 Sep 2 – Oct 7 1 in 33
3 TB Tvoroyri 4 Aug 27 – Sep 17 1 in 25
4 B71 Sandoy 2 Oct 7 – Oct 15 1 in 17
5 FS Vagar 3 May 14 – May 28 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FS Vagar 6 Aug 27 – Sep 30 1 in 30
2 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 5 Aug 27 – Sep 24 1 in 25
3 B36 Torshavn 4 Aug 27 – Sep 17 1 in 22
4 GI Gota 11 Aug 4 – Oct 15 1 in 13
5 HB Torshavn 11 May 14 – Aug 27 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KI Klaksvik 7 Jun 3 – Aug 27 1 in 137
2 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 9 May 21 – Aug 20 1 in 115
3 TB Tvoroyri 9 Aug 6 – Oct 1 1 in 19
4 B71 Sandoy 4 Aug 27 – Sep 17 1 in 16
5 B68 Toftir 6 Aug 27 – Sep 24 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
GI Gota 1270 38 +33 15 11.2 +3.8
HB Torshavn 1220 33 -33 5 10.5 -5.5
B68 Toftir 1104 30 +32 11 8.5 +2.5
B71 Sandoy 1124 29 -8 7 8.0 -1.0
B36 Torshavn 948 26 -10 4 5.1 -1.1
FS Vagar 1053 23 -2 7 7.4 -0.4
KI Klaksvik 1108 22 +5 6 5.6 +0.4
TB Tvoroyri 970 22 +0 4 3.9 +0.1
Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1062 20 +15 10 6.5 +3.5
NSI Runavik 898 8 -31 1 3.8 -2.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BT BT BS FV GG HT KK NR SB TT
B36 Torshavn —
0-0-2
2.06
2-0-0
1.44
1-1-0
1.87
0-0-2
1.04
0-0-2
1.06
1-1-0
1.50
2-0-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.11
1-0-1
2.63
B68 Toftir
2-0-0
3.57
 —
0-1-1
2.31
2-0-0
2.24
1-1-0
1.57
0-0-2
1.59
1-0-1
2.77
2-0-0
3.81
1-0-1
2.77
0-1-1
3.52
B71 Sandoy
0-0-2
4.21
1-1-0
3.32
 —
1-1-0
3.36
0-0-2
2.07
1-0-1
1.93
1-0-1
2.93
2-0-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.55
1-0-1
4.06
FS Vagar
0-1-1
3.76
0-0-2
3.39
0-1-1
2.26
 —
1-0-1
1.55
0-1-1
1.59
1-1-0
2.26
2-0-0
3.72
0-1-1
3.10
2-0-0
3.44
GI Gota
2-0-0
4.65
0-1-1
4.08
2-0-0
3.56
1-0-1
4.10
 —
1-1-0
2.67
2-0-0
3.61
2-0-0
4.68
1-0-0
1.99
1-0-1
4.54
HB Torshavn
2-0-0
4.63
2-0-0
4.05
1-0-1
3.71
1-1-0
4.06
0-1-1
2.95
 —
1-0-1
3.88
0-2-0
4.75
1-1-0
4.14
1-1-0
4.55
KI Klaksvik
0-1-1
4.15
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-1
2.69
0-1-1
3.36
0-0-2
2.01
1-0-1
1.76
 —
2-0-0
4.06
1-0-1
3.34
0-2-0
4.00
NSI Runavik
0-0-2
2.79
0-0-2
1.82
0-0-2
1.58
0-0-2
1.91
0-0-2
1.01
0-2-0
0.95
0-0-2
1.59
 —
1-0-1
2.04
1-0-1
2.69
Sumba-Vags Boltfelag
1-0-1
3.52
1-0-1
2.85
0-0-2
2.08
1-1-0
2.52
0-0-1
0.83
0-1-1
1.51
1-0-1
2.29
1-0-1
3.59
 —
1-0-1
3.38
TB Tvoroyri
1-0-1
2.99
1-1-0
2.11
1-0-1
1.59
0-0-2
2.19
1-0-1
1.14
0-1-1
1.13
0-2-0
1.64
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
2.25
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.71 +8.0
Allowed 0.59 -6.4
Differential 0.80 +4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.74%3.37%7.87%1.12%0.56%2.25%21.91%
13.37%6.74%11.24%2.81%2.25%3.37%29.78%
27.87%11.24%4.49%3.37%0.56%0.56%28.09%
31.12%2.81%3.37%—0.56%1.12%8.99%
40.56%2.25%0.56%0.56%——3.93%
5+2.25%3.37%0.56%1.12%——7.30%
Total21.91%29.78%28.09%8.99%3.93%7.30%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.66 1.66 +0.00
SD 1.43 1.43 2.16
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 89

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
111.11%5.56%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
2—22.22%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%33.33%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.94 -0.67
SD 1.02 1.47 2.09
CV 0.80 0.76 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—16.67%22.22%5.56%——44.44%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total33.33%33.33%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 1.17 +1.22
SD 1.58 1.15 2.32
CV 0.66 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
216.67%16.67%—11.11%——44.44%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.50 +0.44
SD 1.51 1.15 2.01
CV 0.78 0.77 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%——5.56%22.22%
1—11.11%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
3—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
4———————
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 2.11 -0.44
SD 1.33 1.71 1.98
CV 0.80 0.81 —
Max 5 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%5.88%5.88%———17.65%
15.88%5.88%————11.76%
223.53%11.76%—5.88%——41.18%
3——11.76%———11.76%
4———————
5+—17.65%————17.65%
Total35.29%41.18%17.65%5.88%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.24 0.94 +1.29
SD 1.75 0.90 1.86
CV 0.78 0.96 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%—11.11%———38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+11.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
Total50.00%27.78%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 0.78 +1.11
SD 2.05 0.94 2.11
CV 1.09 1.21 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%————5.56%11.11%
1——16.67%5.56%—11.11%33.33%
25.56%16.67%16.67%———38.89%
3—————5.56%5.56%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%33.33%11.11%—22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 2.39 -0.67
SD 1.13 1.79 2.25
CV 0.65 0.75 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%44.44%
15.56%—27.78%—5.56%5.56%44.44%
2———5.56%——5.56%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%38.89%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 2.06 -1.33
SD 0.83 1.51 1.68
CV 1.14 0.74 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——17.65%5.88%——23.53%
1—5.88%11.76%5.88%—5.88%29.41%
2—17.65%5.88%——5.88%29.41%
35.88%—————5.88%
4—5.88%5.88%———11.76%
5+———————
Total5.88%29.41%41.18%11.76%—11.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 2.12 -0.59
SD 1.28 1.50 2.21
CV 0.84 0.71 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%—38.89%
211.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%38.89%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.61 -0.33
SD 0.96 1.24 1.53
CV 0.75 0.77 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
GI Gota 1270 38 34.38 +3.62 81.0% 22 26 31 35 38 42 46
HB Torshavn 1220 33 36.79 -3.79 23.0% 22 27 34 37 41 44 46
B71 Sandoy 1124 29 29.55 -0.55 49.0% 13 21 26 30 34 37 43
KI Klaksvik 1108 22 28.56 -6.56 12.0% 10 16 25 29 32 37 39
B68 Toftir 1104 30 24.32 +5.68 87.0% 12 14 20 24 28 35 43
Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1062 20 21.99 -1.99 39.0% 9 12 19 22 25 29 39
FS Vagar 1053 23 24.89 -1.89 39.0% 10 14 20 25 28 35 40
TB Tvoroyri 970 22 18.35 +3.65 82.0% 6 11 15 18 21 27 34
B36 Torshavn 948 26 16.63 +9.37 99.0% 5 7 13 17 20 24 30
NSI Runavik 898 8 15.65 -7.65 9.0% 3 7 12 16 19 24 30

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 22% * Strong Edge: 22% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.36%
Slight Edge
47.19%17.98%34.83%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 43.16 Elo pts.
208 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.22 goals
Neutral
-2+0.21+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.11 * Tight Race: 0.11 to 0.22 * Comfortable: 0.22 to 0.38 * Runaway: 0.38 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
29%
GI Gota, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Comfortable
00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.36 * Some Luck: 4.36 to 6.54 * Lucky: 6.54 to 8.72 * Wild Swing: 8.72 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.1 * Close: 1.1 to 1.66 * Off: 1.66 to 2.21 * Way Off: 2.21 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.20 points
Some Luck
05.4514
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Off
01.383
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
B36 Torshavn
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
9.00%
NSI Runavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.45 * Moderate Separation: 1.45 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68.5% * Slight Edge: 68.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 88% * Wide Edge: 88% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 93.5% * Strong Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 44.5% * Some Drama: 44.5% to 50.5% * Frequent: 50.5% to 57% * Very Frequent: 57% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 20% * Occasional: 20% to 25% * Frequent: 25% to 33.5% * Very Frequent: 33.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Balanced
00.190.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 116.68
1.42
Coin-Flip Parity
0.851.451.82.153.25
Interquartile Edge
68%
Even
50%68.5%79%88%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
89%
Clear Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Frequent
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Occasional
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.39 * Slight Separation: 0.39 to 0.49 * Notable Separation: 0.49 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.4 * Some Carryover: 0.4 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.38
Very Even
00.390.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.95
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.43
Some Carryover
00.40.610.771
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
31%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.78
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.69
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.143
Well Within Noise
00.1750.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
GI Gota29.00%37.00%19.00%7.00%4.00%4.00%————
HB Torshavn55.00%26.00%9.00%4.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%———
B68 Toftir2.00%4.00%9.00%13.00%19.00%19.00%18.00%5.00%8.00%3.00%
B71 Sandoy6.00%13.00%23.00%26.00%15.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%—1.00%
B36 Torshavn———1.00%5.00%8.00%14.00%20.00%26.00%26.00%
FS Vagar1.00%8.00%11.00%15.00%18.00%13.00%12.00%12.00%7.00%3.00%
TB Tvoroyri——3.00%1.00%5.00%8.00%20.00%18.00%30.00%15.00%
KI Klaksvik6.00%11.00%20.00%24.00%11.00%17.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%
Sumba-Vags Boltfelag1.00%1.00%5.00%8.00%16.00%15.00%19.00%22.00%7.00%6.00%
NSI Runavik——1.00%1.00%3.00%7.00%8.00%18.00%20.00%42.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
GI Gota 100% — —
HB Torshavn 100% — —
B71 Sandoy 99.00% — 1.00%
B68 Toftir 89.00% 8.00% 3.00%
FS Vagar 90.00% 7.00% 3.00%
KI Klaksvik 94.00% 2.00% 4.00%
Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 87.00% 7.00% 6.00%
TB Tvoroyri 55.00% 30.00% 15.00%
B36 Torshavn 48.00% 26.00% 26.00%
NSI Runavik 38.00% 20.00% 42.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1995-05-14 FS Vagar W 5-038.2 969 1107 28.08% 18.65% 53.27%-0.45 +38.3 3
1995-05-14 @ B68 Toftir L 0-538.2 1107 969 53.27% 18.65% 28.08%+0.45 -38.3 0
1995-05-14 NSI Runavik W 2-138.6 1118 973 63.83% 17.47% 18.70%+0.90 +3.3 3
1995-05-14 @ B71 Sandoy L 1-238.6 973 1118 18.70% 17.47% 63.83%-0.90 -3.3 0
1995-05-14 B36 Torshavn W 5-128.5 1205 940 74.14% 15.14% 10.72%+1.48 +5.9 3
1995-05-14 @ HB Torshavn L 1-528.5 940 1205 10.72% 15.14% 74.14%-1.48 -5.9 0
1995-05-14 KI Klaksvik D 2-259.6 952 1155 21.26% 17.90% 60.84%-0.77 +1.1 1
1995-05-14 @ TB Tvoroyri D 2-259.6 1155 952 60.84% 17.90% 21.26%+0.77 -1.1 1
1995-05-21 B71 Sandoy W 3-148.1 934 1121 22.72% 18.11% 59.18%-0.69 +15.6 3
1995-05-21 @ B36 Torshavn L 1-348.1 1121 934 59.18% 18.11% 22.72%+0.69 -15.6 3
1995-05-21 HB Torshavn L 3-545.5 1068 1211 27.48% 18.60% 53.92%-0.48 -6.8 0
1995-05-21 @ FS Vagar W 5-345.5 1211 1068 53.92% 18.60% 27.48%+0.48 +6.8 6
1995-05-21 B68 Toftir L 0-246.0 1233 1008 71.10% 15.98% 12.91%+1.29 -21.4 0
1995-05-21 @ GI Gota W 2-046.0 1008 1233 12.91% 15.98% 71.10%-1.29 +21.4 6
1995-05-21 TB Tvoroyri L 2-353.0 969 953 48.73% 18.90% 32.37%+0.28 -7.2 0
1995-05-21 @ NSI Runavik W 3-253.0 953 969 32.37% 18.90% 48.73%-0.28 +7.2 4
1995-05-21 KI Klaksvik L 1-245.5 1107 1153 39.95% 19.07% 40.98%-0.02 -6.4 0
1995-05-21 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag W 2-145.5 1153 1107 40.98% 19.07% 39.95%+0.02 +6.4 4
1995-05-28 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag W 3-036.4 1029 1100 36.50% 19.03% 44.47%-0.14 +20.3 9
1995-05-28 @ B68 Toftir L 0-336.4 1100 1029 44.47% 19.03% 36.50%+0.14 -20.3 0
1995-05-28 FS Vagar W 2-034.1 1105 1062 52.34% 18.71% 28.95%+0.42 +9.8 6
1995-05-28 @ B71 Sandoy L 0-234.1 1062 1105 28.95% 18.71% 52.34%-0.42 -9.8 0
1995-05-28 GI Gota D 0-050.7 1218 1212 47.36% 18.95% 33.69%+0.24 -0.6 7
1995-05-28 @ HB Torshavn D 0-050.7 1212 1218 33.69% 18.95% 47.36%-0.24 +0.6 1
1995-05-28 NSI Runavik W 2-137.1 1160 962 68.75% 16.54% 14.71%+1.16 +2.6 7
1995-05-28 @ KI Klaksvik L 1-237.1 962 1160 14.71% 16.54% 68.75%-1.16 -2.6 0
1995-05-28 B36 Torshavn W 3-248.3 960 949 48.07% 18.93% 33.00%+0.26 +5.2 7
1995-05-28 @ TB Tvoroyri L 2-348.3 949 960 33.00% 18.93% 48.07%-0.26 -5.2 3
1995-06-03 KI Klaksvik W 2-151.8 944 1162 19.81% 17.67% 62.52%-0.84 +9.5 6
1995-06-03 @ B36 Torshavn L 1-251.8 1162 944 62.52% 17.67% 19.81%+0.84 -9.5 7
1995-06-03 HB Torshavn L 1-240.7 1049 1217 24.68% 18.34% 56.98%-0.60 -4.2 9
1995-06-03 @ B68 Toftir W 2-140.7 1217 1049 56.98% 18.34% 24.68%+0.60 +4.2 10
1995-06-03 TB Tvoroyri W 3-137.7 1052 966 57.48% 18.29% 24.23%+0.62 +7.2 3
1995-06-03 @ FS Vagar L 1-337.7 966 1052 24.23% 18.29% 57.48%-0.62 -7.2 7
1995-06-03 B71 Sandoy W 3-245.2 1212 1115 58.78% 18.15% 23.07%+0.68 +3.8 4
1995-06-03 @ GI Gota L 2-345.2 1115 1212 23.07% 18.15% 58.78%-0.68 -3.8 6
1995-06-03 NSI Runavik L 1-348.7 1080 960 61.29% 17.84% 20.87%+0.79 -16.1 0
1995-06-03 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag W 3-148.7 960 1080 20.87% 17.84% 61.29%-0.79 +16.1 3
1995-06-10 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag W 2-030.3 1222 1064 65.10% 17.26% 17.64%+0.97 +6.2 13
1995-06-10 @ HB Torshavn L 0-230.3 1064 1222 17.64% 17.26% 65.10%-0.97 -6.2 0
1995-06-11 B68 Toftir W 2-141.2 1111 1045 55.14% 18.51% 26.36%+0.53 +4.5 9
1995-06-11 @ B71 Sandoy L 1-241.2 1045 1111 26.36% 18.51% 55.14%-0.53 -4.5 9
1995-06-11 FS Vagar D 0-050.7 1153 1059 58.39% 18.20% 23.41%+0.66 -1.5 8
1995-06-11 @ KI Klaksvik D 0-050.7 1059 1153 23.41% 18.20% 58.39%-0.66 +1.5 4
1995-06-11 B36 Torshavn L 1-248.2 976 954 49.54% 18.87% 31.59%+0.31 -7.7 3
1995-06-11 @ NSI Runavik W 2-148.2 954 976 31.59% 18.87% 49.54%-0.31 +7.7 9
1995-06-11 GI Gota W 1-048.1 958 1216 16.58% 17.02% 66.40%-1.03 +10.6 10
1995-06-11 @ TB Tvoroyri L 0-148.1 1216 958 66.40% 17.02% 16.58%+1.03 -10.7 4
1995-06-18 TB Tvoroyri L 1-250.0 1040 969 55.75% 18.45% 25.80%+0.55 -8.5 9
1995-06-18 @ B68 Toftir W 2-150.0 969 1040 25.80% 18.45% 55.75%-0.55 +8.5 13
1995-06-18 NSI Runavik W 2-032.3 1060 968 58.20% 18.22% 23.58%+0.65 +8.1 7
1995-06-18 @ FS Vagar L 0-232.3 968 1060 23.58% 18.22% 58.20%-0.65 -8.1 3
1995-06-18 KI Klaksvik W 5-134.8 1206 1151 53.65% 18.62% 27.73%+0.47 +14.9 7
1995-06-18 @ GI Gota L 1-534.8 1151 1206 27.73% 18.62% 53.65%-0.47 -14.9 8
1995-06-18 B71 Sandoy W 1-035.1 1228 1116 60.39% 17.96% 21.64%+0.75 +4.0 16
1995-06-18 @ HB Torshavn L 0-135.1 1116 1228 21.64% 17.96% 60.39%-0.75 -4.0 9
1995-06-18 B36 Torshavn L 1-250.8 1058 961 58.66% 18.17% 23.18%+0.67 -8.9 0
1995-06-18 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag W 2-150.8 961 1058 23.18% 18.17% 58.66%-0.67 +9.0 12
1995-06-24 GI Gota W 3-254.9 1069 1220 26.44% 18.51% 55.05%-0.52 +8.0 10
1995-06-24 @ FS Vagar L 2-354.9 1220 1069 55.05% 18.51% 26.44%+0.52 -8.0 7
1995-06-24 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag W 2-038.8 978 1049 36.55% 19.03% 44.42%-0.13 +14.0 16
1995-06-24 @ TB Tvoroyri L 0-238.8 1049 978 44.42% 19.03% 36.55%+0.13 -14.0 0
1995-06-25 B68 Toftir L 0-433.4 970 1032 37.83% 19.05% 43.12%-0.09 -23.3 12
1995-06-25 @ B36 Torshavn W 4-033.4 1032 970 43.12% 19.05% 37.83%+0.09 +23.3 12
1995-06-25 B71 Sandoy L 1-345.6 1137 1112 49.88% 18.85% 31.27%+0.33 -13.4 8
1995-06-25 @ KI Klaksvik W 3-145.6 1112 1137 31.27% 18.85% 49.88%-0.33 +13.4 12
1995-08-04 B36 Torshavn W 2-027.6 1212 947 74.14% 15.14% 10.72%+1.48 +3.8 10
1995-08-04 @ GI Gota L 0-227.6 947 1212 10.72% 15.14% 74.14%-1.48 -3.8 12
1995-08-05 KI Klaksvik W 5-028.7 1232 1123 60.02% 18.01% 21.97%+0.73 +17.8 19
1995-08-05 @ HB Torshavn L 0-528.7 1123 1232 21.97% 18.01% 60.02%-0.73 -17.9 8
1995-08-06 NSI Runavik W 4-134.8 1055 960 58.53% 18.18% 23.29%+0.67 +9.9 15
1995-08-06 @ B68 Toftir L 1-434.8 960 1055 23.29% 18.18% 58.53%-0.67 -9.9 3
1995-08-06 TB Tvoroyri W 2-138.9 1125 992 62.68% 17.65% 19.67%+0.85 +3.4 15
1995-08-06 @ B71 Sandoy L 1-238.9 992 1125 19.67% 17.65% 62.68%-0.85 -3.4 16
1995-08-06 FS Vagar D 2-259.2 1035 1077 40.64% 19.07% 40.29%+0.01 -0.0 1
1995-08-06 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag D 2-259.2 1077 1035 40.29% 19.07% 40.64%-0.01 +0.0 11
1995-08-09 HB Torshavn D 0-051.2 950 1250 13.69% 16.24% 70.07%-1.23 +2.5 4
1995-08-09 @ NSI Runavik D 0-051.2 1250 950 70.07% 16.24% 13.69%+1.23 -2.5 20
1995-08-13 FS Vagar W 3-254.2 943 1077 28.56% 18.68% 52.76%-0.43 +7.7 15
1995-08-13 @ B36 Torshavn L 2-354.2 1077 943 52.76% 18.68% 28.56%+0.43 -7.7 11
1995-08-13 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag W 5-133.2 1129 1035 58.39% 18.20% 23.41%+0.66 +12.8 18
1995-08-13 @ B71 Sandoy L 1-533.2 1035 1129 23.41% 18.20% 58.39%-0.66 -12.8 1
1995-08-13 GI Gota L 0-133.0 953 1216 16.15% 16.92% 66.94%-1.06 -3.0 4
1995-08-13 @ NSI Runavik W 1-033.0 1216 953 66.94% 16.92% 16.15%+1.06 +3.0 13
1995-08-13 HB Torshavn D 0-051.0 988 1247 16.50% 17.00% 66.50%-1.04 +2.2 17
1995-08-13 @ TB Tvoroyri D 0-051.0 1247 988 66.50% 17.00% 16.50%+1.04 -2.2 21
1995-08-20 HB Torshavn L 0-525.7 951 1245 14.04% 16.34% 69.61%-1.21 -11.6 15
1995-08-20 @ B36 Torshavn W 5-025.7 1245 951 69.61% 16.34% 14.04%+1.21 +11.6 24
1995-08-20 B68 Toftir L 1-540.5 1069 1065 47.07% 18.96% 33.97%+0.23 -23.2 11
1995-08-20 @ FS Vagar W 5-140.5 1065 1069 33.97% 18.96% 47.07%-0.23 +23.2 18
1995-08-20 TB Tvoroyri D 2-259.6 1105 990 60.71% 17.92% 21.37%+0.76 -1.1 9
1995-08-20 @ KI Klaksvik D 2-259.6 990 1105 21.37% 17.92% 60.71%-0.76 +1.1 18
1995-08-20 B71 Sandoy L 0-231.9 950 1141 22.27% 18.05% 59.68%-0.71 -7.7 4
1995-08-20 @ NSI Runavik W 2-031.9 1141 950 59.68% 18.05% 22.27%+0.71 +7.7 21
1995-08-20 GI Gota L 0-231.8 1022 1219 21.73% 17.97% 60.30%-0.74 -7.6 1
1995-08-20 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag W 2-031.8 1219 1022 60.30% 17.97% 21.73%+0.74 +7.5 16
1995-08-27 GI Gota D 1-154.3 1088 1227 27.96% 18.64% 53.40%-0.46 +1.0 19
1995-08-27 @ B68 Toftir D 1-154.3 1227 1088 53.40% 18.64% 27.96%+0.46 -1.0 17
1995-08-27 B36 Torshavn L 1-253.6 1149 939 69.79% 16.30% 13.91%+1.22 -10.5 21
1995-08-27 @ B71 Sandoy W 2-153.6 939 1149 13.91% 16.30% 69.79%-1.22 +10.5 18
1995-08-27 FS Vagar D 0-051.3 1256 1046 69.88% 16.28% 13.84%+1.22 -2.5 25
1995-08-27 @ HB Torshavn D 0-051.3 1046 1256 13.84% 16.28% 69.88%-1.22 +2.5 12
1995-08-27 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag L 1-250.6 1104 1014 57.93% 18.25% 23.83%+0.64 -8.8 9
1995-08-27 @ KI Klaksvik W 2-150.6 1014 1104 23.83% 18.25% 57.93%-0.64 +8.9 4
1995-08-27 NSI Runavik L 0-144.6 992 942 53.08% 18.66% 28.26%+0.45 -8.7 18
1995-08-27 @ TB Tvoroyri W 1-044.6 942 992 28.26% 18.66% 53.08%-0.45 +8.7 7
1995-08-30 B68 Toftir W 4-351.9 1095 1089 47.37% 18.95% 33.67%+0.24 +5.2 12
1995-08-30 @ KI Klaksvik L 3-451.9 1089 1095 33.67% 18.95% 47.37%-0.24 -5.2 19
1995-09-02 TB Tvoroyri W 1-040.5 950 983 41.92% 19.06% 39.02%+0.05 +6.7 21
1995-09-02 @ B36 Torshavn L 0-140.5 983 950 39.02% 19.06% 41.92%-0.05 -6.7 18
1995-09-02 B71 Sandoy D 1-154.1 1048 1139 33.92% 18.96% 47.11%-0.23 +0.5 13
1995-09-02 @ FS Vagar D 1-154.1 1139 1048 47.11% 18.96% 33.92%+0.23 -0.5 22
1995-09-02 KI Klaksvik L 1-241.3 951 1100 26.65% 18.53% 54.81%-0.51 -4.5 7
1995-09-02 @ NSI Runavik W 2-141.3 1100 951 54.81% 18.53% 26.65%+0.51 +4.5 15
1995-09-02 B68 Toftir W 2-146.4 1023 1084 37.94% 19.05% 43.01%-0.09 +6.8 7
1995-09-02 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag L 1-246.4 1084 1023 43.01% 19.05% 37.94%+0.09 -6.8 19
1995-09-03 HB Torshavn W 2-145.3 1226 1254 42.61% 19.06% 38.33%+0.07 +6.2 20
1995-09-03 @ GI Gota L 1-245.3 1254 1226 38.33% 19.06% 42.61%-0.07 -6.2 25
1995-09-10 GI Gota L 2-348.6 1138 1232 33.47% 18.95% 47.58%-0.24 -5.2 22
1995-09-10 @ B71 Sandoy W 3-248.6 1232 1138 47.58% 18.95% 33.47%+0.24 +5.2 23
1995-09-10 B68 Toftir W 3-135.2 1248 1077 66.31% 17.04% 16.65%+1.03 +5.1 28
1995-09-10 @ HB Torshavn L 1-335.2 1077 1248 16.65% 17.04% 66.31%-1.03 -5.1 19
1995-09-10 B36 Torshavn D 2-259.7 1105 957 64.19% 17.41% 18.39%+0.92 -1.3 16
1995-09-10 @ KI Klaksvik D 2-259.7 957 1105 18.39% 17.41% 64.19%-0.92 +1.3 22
1995-09-10 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag L 0-333.5 946 1030 34.79% 18.99% 46.22%-0.20 -16.6 7
1995-09-10 @ NSI Runavik W 3-033.5 1030 946 46.22% 18.99% 34.79%+0.20 +16.6 10
1995-09-10 FS Vagar L 1-244.3 976 1049 36.35% 19.03% 44.62%-0.14 -5.9 18
1995-09-10 @ TB Tvoroyri W 2-144.3 1049 976 44.62% 19.03% 36.35%+0.14 +5.9 16
1995-09-17 NSI Runavik W 1-038.0 958 929 50.36% 18.83% 30.81%+0.34 +5.5 25
1995-09-17 @ B36 Torshavn L 0-138.0 929 958 30.81% 18.83% 50.36%-0.34 -5.5 7
1995-09-17 B71 Sandoy D 1-154.1 1072 1133 37.98% 19.06% 42.97%-0.08 +0.2 20
1995-09-17 @ B68 Toftir D 1-154.1 1133 1072 42.97% 19.06% 37.98%+0.08 -0.2 23
1995-09-17 KI Klaksvik W 5-349.8 1055 1104 39.60% 19.07% 41.33%-0.03 +9.7 19
1995-09-17 @ FS Vagar L 3-549.8 1104 1055 41.33% 19.07% 39.60%+0.03 -9.7 16
1995-09-17 TB Tvoroyri W 2-027.6 1237 970 74.25% 15.11% 10.64%+1.49 +3.7 26
1995-09-17 @ GI Gota L 0-227.6 970 1237 10.64% 15.11% 74.25%-1.49 -3.7 18
1995-09-17 HB Torshavn D 1-154.5 1047 1253 20.89% 17.85% 61.26%-0.78 +1.5 11
1995-09-17 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag D 1-154.5 1253 1047 61.26% 17.85% 20.89%+0.78 -1.6 29
1995-09-24 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag L 1-243.8 963 1048 34.68% 18.99% 46.34%-0.20 -5.7 25
1995-09-24 @ B36 Torshavn W 2-143.8 1048 963 46.34% 18.99% 34.68%+0.20 +5.7 14
1995-09-24 HB Torshavn W 2-040.9 1133 1251 30.34% 18.80% 50.86%-0.36 +15.7 26
1995-09-24 @ B71 Sandoy L 0-240.9 1251 1133 50.86% 18.80% 30.34%+0.36 -15.7 29
1995-09-24 GI Gota L 1-633.7 1094 1241 26.99% 18.56% 54.45%-0.50 -17.8 16
1995-09-24 @ KI Klaksvik W 6-133.7 1241 1094 54.45% 18.56% 26.99%+0.50 +17.8 29
1995-09-24 FS Vagar L 1-241.6 924 1064 27.75% 18.62% 53.62%-0.47 -4.7 7
1995-09-24 @ NSI Runavik W 2-141.6 1064 924 53.62% 18.62% 27.75%+0.47 +4.7 22
1995-09-24 B68 Toftir D 1-154.1 967 1072 31.93% 18.88% 49.19%-0.30 +0.6 19
1995-09-24 @ TB Tvoroyri D 1-154.1 1072 967 49.19% 18.88% 31.93%+0.30 -0.6 21
1995-09-30 B36 Torshavn D 1-154.4 1069 958 60.32% 17.97% 21.71%+0.74 -1.5 23
1995-09-30 @ FS Vagar D 1-154.4 958 1069 21.71% 17.97% 60.32%-0.74 +1.5 26
1995-10-01 KI Klaksvik W 2-144.0 1072 1076 45.93% 19.00% 35.08%+0.19 +5.8 24
1995-10-01 @ B68 Toftir L 1-244.0 1076 1072 35.08% 19.00% 45.93%-0.19 -5.8 16
1995-10-01 NSI Runavik W 5-127.0 1259 919 79.00% 13.47% 7.53%+1.84 +4.1 32
1995-10-01 @ GI Gota L 1-527.0 919 1259 7.53% 13.47% 79.00%-1.84 -4.1 7
1995-10-01 TB Tvoroyri W 4-130.1 1236 967 74.35% 15.08% 10.57%+1.50 +4.5 32
1995-10-01 @ HB Torshavn L 1-430.1 967 1236 10.57% 15.08% 74.35%-1.50 -4.5 19
1995-10-01 B71 Sandoy L 2-638.8 1054 1148 33.38% 18.94% 47.68%-0.25 -14.8 14
1995-10-01 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag W 6-238.8 1148 1054 47.68% 18.94% 33.38%+0.25 +14.8 29
1995-10-06 HB Torshavn W 2-042.5 1071 1240 24.52% 18.32% 57.16%-0.61 +17.5 19
1995-10-06 @ KI Klaksvik L 0-242.5 1240 1071 57.16% 18.32% 24.52%+0.61 -17.5 32
1995-10-07 GI Gota L 0-228.7 959 1263 13.42% 16.15% 70.43%-1.25 -4.7 26
1995-10-07 @ B36 Torshavn W 2-028.7 1263 959 70.43% 16.15% 13.42%+1.25 +4.7 35
1995-10-07 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag L 2-450.0 1067 1039 50.36% 18.83% 30.81%+0.34 -12.1 23
1995-10-07 @ FS Vagar W 4-250.0 1039 1067 30.81% 18.83% 50.36%-0.34 +12.1 17
1995-10-07 B68 Toftir L 0-529.7 915 1078 25.28% 18.40% 56.31%-0.57 -20.3 7
1995-10-07 @ NSI Runavik W 5-029.7 1078 915 56.31% 18.40% 25.28%+0.57 +20.3 27
1995-10-07 B71 Sandoy W 2-043.4 963 1163 21.42% 17.93% 60.65%-0.76 +18.5 22
1995-10-07 @ TB Tvoroyri L 0-243.4 1163 963 60.65% 17.93% 21.42%+0.76 -18.5 29
1995-10-15 B36 Torshavn W 2-030.7 1098 954 63.69% 17.49% 18.82%+0.90 +6.6 30
1995-10-15 @ B68 Toftir L 0-230.7 954 1098 18.82% 17.49% 63.69%-0.90 -6.6 26
1995-10-15 KI Klaksvik L 1-444.2 1145 1088 53.98% 18.60% 27.42%+0.48 -20.3 29
1995-10-15 @ B71 Sandoy W 4-144.2 1088 1145 27.42% 18.60% 53.98%-0.48 +20.3 22
1995-10-15 FS Vagar W 2-136.8 1268 1055 70.00% 16.25% 13.75%+1.23 +2.4 38
1995-10-15 @ GI Gota L 1-236.8 1055 1268 13.75% 16.25% 70.00%-1.23 -2.4 23
1995-10-15 NSI Runavik D 0-052.0 1223 895 78.29% 13.74% 7.97%+1.78 -3.1 33
1995-10-15 @ HB Torshavn D 0-052.0 895 1223 7.97% 13.74% 78.29%-1.78 +3.1 8
1995-10-15 TB Tvoroyri W 4-135.7 1051 981 55.58% 18.47% 25.95%+0.54 +10.9 20
1995-10-15 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag L 1-435.7 981 1051 25.95% 18.47% 55.58%-0.54 -10.9 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1995-05-21 12.91% B68 Toftir 1008 2 @ GI Gota 1233 0
2 1995-08-27 13.91% B36 Torshavn 939 2 @ B71 Sandoy 1149 1
3 1995-06-11 16.58% @ TB Tvoroyri 958 1 GI Gota 1216 0
4 1995-06-03 19.81% @ B36 Torshavn 944 2 KI Klaksvik 1162 1
5 1995-06-03 20.87% NSI Runavik 960 3 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1080 1
6 1995-10-07 21.42% @ TB Tvoroyri 963 2 B71 Sandoy 1163 0
7 1995-05-21 22.72% @ B36 Torshavn 934 3 B71 Sandoy 1121 1
8 1995-06-18 23.18% B36 Torshavn 961 2 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1058 1
9 1995-08-27 23.83% Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1014 2 @ KI Klaksvik 1104 1
10 1995-10-06 24.52% @ KI Klaksvik 1071 2 HB Torshavn 1240 0
11 1995-06-18 25.80% TB Tvoroyri 969 2 @ B68 Toftir 1040 1
12 1995-06-24 26.44% @ FS Vagar 1069 3 GI Gota 1220 2
13 1995-10-15 27.42% KI Klaksvik 1088 4 @ B71 Sandoy 1145 1
14 1995-05-14 28.08% @ B68 Toftir 969 5 FS Vagar 1107 0
15 1995-08-27 28.26% NSI Runavik 942 1 @ TB Tvoroyri 992 0
16 1995-08-13 28.56% @ B36 Torshavn 943 3 FS Vagar 1077 2
17 1995-09-24 30.34% @ B71 Sandoy 1133 2 HB Torshavn 1251 0
18 1995-10-07 30.81% Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1039 4 @ FS Vagar 1067 2
19 1995-06-25 31.27% B71 Sandoy 1112 3 @ KI Klaksvik 1137 1
20 1995-06-11 31.59% B36 Torshavn 954 2 @ NSI Runavik 976 1
21 1995-05-21 32.37% TB Tvoroyri 953 3 @ NSI Runavik 969 2
22 1995-08-20 33.97% B68 Toftir 1065 5 @ FS Vagar 1069 1
23 1995-05-28 36.50% @ B68 Toftir 1029 3 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1100 0
24 1995-06-24 36.55% @ TB Tvoroyri 978 2 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1049 0
25 1995-09-02 37.94% @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1023 2 B68 Toftir 1084 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-05-14 38.33 @ B68 Toftir 5 969 28.08% FS Vagar 0 1107 53.27% 18.65%
2 1995-06-25 23.27 B68 Toftir 4 1032 43.12% @ B36 Torshavn 0 970 37.83% 19.05%
3 1995-08-20 23.24 B68 Toftir 5 1065 33.97% @ FS Vagar 1 1069 47.07% 18.96%
4 1995-05-21 21.37 B68 Toftir 2 1008 12.91% @ GI Gota 0 1233 71.10% 15.98%
5 1995-05-28 20.34 @ B68 Toftir 3 1029 36.50% Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 0 1100 44.47% 19.03%
6 1995-10-15 20.31 KI Klaksvik 4 1088 27.42% @ B71 Sandoy 1 1145 53.98% 18.60%
7 1995-10-07 20.29 B68 Toftir 5 1078 56.31% @ NSI Runavik 0 915 25.28% 18.40%
8 1995-10-07 18.46 @ TB Tvoroyri 2 963 21.42% B71 Sandoy 0 1163 60.65% 17.93%
9 1995-08-05 17.85 @ HB Torshavn 5 1232 60.02% KI Klaksvik 0 1123 21.97% 18.01%
10 1995-09-24 17.80 GI Gota 6 1241 54.45% @ KI Klaksvik 1 1094 26.99% 18.56%
11 1995-10-06 17.47 @ KI Klaksvik 2 1071 24.52% HB Torshavn 0 1240 57.16% 18.32%
12 1995-09-10 16.62 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 3 1030 46.22% @ NSI Runavik 0 946 34.79% 18.99%
13 1995-06-03 16.14 NSI Runavik 3 960 20.87% @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1 1080 61.29% 17.84%
14 1995-09-24 15.72 @ B71 Sandoy 2 1133 30.34% HB Torshavn 0 1251 50.86% 18.80%
15 1995-05-21 15.63 @ B36 Torshavn 3 934 22.72% B71 Sandoy 1 1121 59.18% 18.11%
16 1995-06-18 14.89 @ GI Gota 5 1206 53.65% KI Klaksvik 1 1151 27.73% 18.62%
17 1995-10-01 14.83 B71 Sandoy 6 1148 47.68% @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 2 1054 33.38% 18.94%
18 1995-06-24 13.99 @ TB Tvoroyri 2 978 36.55% Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 0 1049 44.42% 19.03%
19 1995-06-25 13.38 B71 Sandoy 3 1112 31.27% @ KI Klaksvik 1 1137 49.88% 18.85%
20 1995-08-13 12.79 @ B71 Sandoy 5 1129 58.39% Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1 1035 23.41% 18.20%
21 1995-10-07 12.08 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 4 1039 30.81% @ FS Vagar 2 1067 50.36% 18.83%
22 1995-08-20 11.57 HB Torshavn 5 1245 69.61% @ B36 Torshavn 0 951 14.04% 16.34%
23 1995-10-15 10.88 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 4 1051 55.58% TB Tvoroyri 1 981 25.95% 18.47%
24 1995-06-11 10.65 @ TB Tvoroyri 1 958 16.58% GI Gota 0 1216 66.40% 17.02%
25 1995-08-27 10.51 B36 Torshavn 2 939 13.91% @ B71 Sandoy 1 1149 69.79% 16.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-09-10 59.7 @ KI Klaksvik 2 1105 64.19% B36 Torshavn 2 957 18.39% 17.41%
2 1995-05-14 59.6 @ TB Tvoroyri 2 952 21.26% KI Klaksvik 2 1155 60.84% 17.90%
3 1995-08-20 59.6 @ KI Klaksvik 2 1105 60.71% TB Tvoroyri 2 990 21.37% 17.92%
4 1995-08-06 59.2 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 2 1035 40.64% FS Vagar 2 1077 40.29% 19.07%
5 1995-06-24 54.9 @ FS Vagar 3 1069 26.44% GI Gota 2 1220 55.05% 18.51%
6 1995-09-17 54.5 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1 1047 20.89% HB Torshavn 1 1253 61.26% 17.85%
7 1995-09-30 54.4 @ FS Vagar 1 1069 60.32% B36 Torshavn 1 958 21.71% 17.97%
8 1995-08-27 54.3 @ B68 Toftir 1 1088 27.96% GI Gota 1 1227 53.40% 18.64%
9 1995-08-13 54.2 @ B36 Torshavn 3 943 28.56% FS Vagar 2 1077 52.76% 18.68%
10 1995-09-02 54.1 @ FS Vagar 1 1048 33.92% B71 Sandoy 1 1139 47.11% 18.96%
11 1995-09-17 54.1 @ B68 Toftir 1 1072 37.98% B71 Sandoy 1 1133 42.97% 19.06%
12 1995-09-24 54.1 @ TB Tvoroyri 1 967 31.93% B68 Toftir 1 1072 49.19% 18.88%
13 1995-08-27 53.6 B36 Torshavn 2 939 13.91% @ B71 Sandoy 1 1149 69.79% 16.30%
14 1995-05-21 53.0 TB Tvoroyri 3 953 32.37% @ NSI Runavik 2 969 48.73% 18.90%
15 1995-10-15 52.0 @ HB Torshavn 0 1223 78.29% NSI Runavik 0 895 7.97% 13.74%
16 1995-08-30 51.9 @ KI Klaksvik 4 1095 47.37% B68 Toftir 3 1089 33.67% 18.95%
17 1995-06-03 51.8 @ B36 Torshavn 2 944 19.81% KI Klaksvik 1 1162 62.52% 17.67%
18 1995-08-27 51.3 @ HB Torshavn 0 1256 69.88% FS Vagar 0 1046 13.84% 16.28%
19 1995-08-09 51.2 @ NSI Runavik 0 950 13.69% HB Torshavn 0 1250 70.07% 16.24%
20 1995-08-13 51.0 @ TB Tvoroyri 0 988 16.50% HB Torshavn 0 1247 66.50% 17.00%
21 1995-06-18 50.8 B36 Torshavn 2 961 23.18% @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1 1058 58.66% 18.17%
22 1995-05-28 50.7 @ HB Torshavn 0 1218 47.36% GI Gota 0 1212 33.69% 18.95%
23 1995-06-11 50.7 @ KI Klaksvik 0 1153 58.39% FS Vagar 0 1059 23.41% 18.20%
24 1995-08-27 50.6 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 2 1014 23.83% @ KI Klaksvik 1 1104 57.93% 18.25%
25 1995-06-18 50.0 TB Tvoroyri 2 969 25.80% @ B68 Toftir 1 1040 55.75% 18.45%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1995-08-20 25.7 HB Torshavn 5 1245 69.61% @ B36 Torshavn 0 951 14.04% 16.34%
2 1995-10-01 27.0 @ GI Gota 5 1259 79.00% NSI Runavik 1 919 7.53% 13.47%
3 1995-08-04 27.6 @ GI Gota 2 1212 74.14% B36 Torshavn 0 947 10.72% 15.14%
4 1995-09-17 27.6 @ GI Gota 2 1237 74.25% TB Tvoroyri 0 970 10.64% 15.11%
5 1995-05-14 28.5 @ HB Torshavn 5 1205 74.14% B36 Torshavn 1 940 10.72% 15.14%
6 1995-08-05 28.7 @ HB Torshavn 5 1232 60.02% KI Klaksvik 0 1123 21.97% 18.01%
7 1995-10-07 28.7 GI Gota 2 1263 70.43% @ B36 Torshavn 0 959 13.42% 16.15%
8 1995-10-07 29.7 B68 Toftir 5 1078 56.31% @ NSI Runavik 0 915 25.28% 18.40%
9 1995-10-01 30.1 @ HB Torshavn 4 1236 74.35% TB Tvoroyri 1 967 10.57% 15.08%
10 1995-06-10 30.3 @ HB Torshavn 2 1222 65.10% Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 0 1064 17.64% 17.26%
11 1995-10-15 30.7 @ B68 Toftir 2 1098 63.69% B36 Torshavn 0 954 18.82% 17.49%
12 1995-08-20 31.8 GI Gota 2 1219 60.30% @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 0 1022 21.73% 17.97%
13 1995-08-20 31.9 B71 Sandoy 2 1141 59.68% @ NSI Runavik 0 950 22.27% 18.05%
14 1995-06-18 32.3 @ FS Vagar 2 1060 58.20% NSI Runavik 0 968 23.58% 18.22%
15 1995-08-13 33.0 GI Gota 1 1216 66.94% @ NSI Runavik 0 953 16.15% 16.92%
16 1995-08-13 33.2 @ B71 Sandoy 5 1129 58.39% Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 1 1035 23.41% 18.20%
17 1995-06-25 33.4 B68 Toftir 4 1032 43.12% @ B36 Torshavn 0 970 37.83% 19.05%
18 1995-09-10 33.5 Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 3 1030 46.22% @ NSI Runavik 0 946 34.79% 18.99%
19 1995-09-24 33.7 GI Gota 6 1241 54.45% @ KI Klaksvik 1 1094 26.99% 18.56%
20 1995-05-28 34.1 @ B71 Sandoy 2 1105 52.34% FS Vagar 0 1062 28.95% 18.71%
21 1995-06-18 34.8 @ GI Gota 5 1206 53.65% KI Klaksvik 1 1151 27.73% 18.62%
22 1995-08-06 34.8 @ B68 Toftir 4 1055 58.53% NSI Runavik 1 960 23.29% 18.18%
23 1995-06-18 35.1 @ HB Torshavn 1 1228 60.39% B71 Sandoy 0 1116 21.64% 17.96%
24 1995-09-10 35.2 @ HB Torshavn 3 1248 66.31% B68 Toftir 1 1077 16.65% 17.04%
25 1995-10-15 35.7 @ Sumba-Vags Boltfelag 4 1051 55.58% TB Tvoroyri 1 981 25.95% 18.47%