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1950 Mestaruussarja Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Ilves-Kissat

25 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ilves-Kissat

4.66 points above expected

25 points · 20.34 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

TPS Turku

3.71 points below expected

17 points · 20.71 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ilves-Kissat Champion 18 10 5 3 25 38 17 +21 20.34 +4.66
2 KuPS 18 11 0 7 22 46 39 +7 18.95 +3.05
3 VIFK 18 7 6 5 20 38 28 +10 20.75 -0.75
4 KTP 18 7 5 6 19 36 37 -1 17.43 +1.57
5 VPS 18 6 6 6 18 34 33 +1 20.10 -2.10
6 Kiffen 08 18 8 2 8 18 45 46 -1 17.59 +0.41
7 TPS Turku 18 7 3 8 17 36 37 -1 20.71 -3.71
8 Haka 18 7 3 8 17 37 46 -9 13.12 +3.88
9 Turun Weikot 18 5 4 9 14 25 34 -9 17.30 -3.30
10 Kullervo Helsinki 18 2 6 10 10 22 40 -18 13.71 -3.71

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ilves-Kissat 25 20.34 +4.66
2 Haka 17 13.12 +3.88
3 KuPS 22 18.95 +3.05
4 KTP 19 17.43 +1.57
5 Kiffen 08 18 17.59 +0.41

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 TPS Turku 17 20.71 -3.71
2 Kullervo Helsinki 10 13.71 -3.71
3 Turun Weikot 14 17.30 -3.30
4 VPS 18 20.10 -2.10
5 VIFK 20 20.75 -0.75

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KuPS 7 May 14 – Jun 25 1 in 590
2 Haka 3 Aug 13 – Sep 3 1 in 239
3 VPS 3 Oct 1 – Oct 15 1 in 15
4 KTP 2 Aug 6 – Aug 13 1 in 10
5 Kullervo Helsinki 1 Jun 18 – Jun 18 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 VIFK 3 Jun 18 – Jun 25 1 in 38
2 KuPS 3 Oct 1 – Oct 15 1 in 34
3 VPS 2 May 28 – Jun 4 1 in 26
4 Turun Weikot 2 Jun 4 – Jun 18 1 in 14
5 TPS Turku 2 Jul 30 – Aug 11 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KuPS 7 May 14 – Jun 25 1 in 21
2 Haka 3 Aug 13 – Sep 3 1 in 16
3 Ilves-Kissat 6 Jun 4 – Aug 6 1 in 13
4 VIFK 6 Jul 2 – Sep 3 1 in 11
5 KTP 5 Sep 3 – Oct 22 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 VPS 7 Jul 2 – Sep 17 1 in 37
2 Turun Weikot 7 Jun 4 – Aug 6 1 in 28
3 VIFK 5 Jun 4 – Jul 2 1 in 21
4 Kullervo Helsinki 10 Jul 2 – Oct 22 1 in 16
5 KTP 6 May 18 – Jun 18 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ilves-Kissat 1365 25 +23 6 5.5 +0.5
KuPS 1277 22 -32 4 5.3 -1.3
VIFK 1347 20 -1 6 6.6 -0.6
KTP 1293 19 +22 8 5.8 +2.2
VPS 1329 18 +25 7 5.4 +1.6
Kiffen 08 1280 18 +1 4 4.3 -0.3
TPS Turku 1298 17 -23 4 5.4 -1.4
Haka 1179 17 +2 4 3.6 +0.4
Turun Weikot 1224 14 -23 3 5.0 -2.0
Kullervo Helsinki 1137 10 -5 3 3.9 -0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team HAK ILV KTP K0 KUP KH TT TW VIF VPS
Haka —
0-1-1
1.91
0-0-2
2.10
0-0-2
1.87
1-0-1
1.66
1-1-0
2.71
1-0-1
1.75
2-0-0
1.97
0-1-1
1.54
2-0-0
1.67
Ilves-Kissat
1-1-0
3.65
 —
1-0-1
3.06
1-0-1
3.05
2-0-0
2.86
2-0-0
3.68
1-1-0
2.59
2-0-0
3.28
0-1-1
2.77
0-2-0
2.95
KTP
2-0-0
3.45
1-0-1
2.48
 —
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.71
0-2-0
3.55
0-1-1
2.41
2-0-0
2.75
0-1-1
2.31
0-1-1
2.41
Kiffen 08
2-0-0
3.68
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.83
 —
0-0-2
2.58
2-0-0
3.34
0-0-2
2.55
1-1-0
2.84
0-1-1
2.59
1-0-1
2.55
KuPS
1-0-1
3.91
0-0-2
2.68
1-0-1
2.82
2-0-0
2.95
 —
2-0-0
3.62
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.95
2-0-0
2.63
1-0-1
2.60
Kullervo Helsinki
0-1-1
2.82
0-0-2
1.88
0-2-0
1.99
0-0-2
2.20
0-0-2
1.92
 —
1-0-1
1.67
0-1-1
2.32
1-0-1
1.56
0-2-0
1.83
TPS Turku
1-0-1
3.81
0-1-1
2.94
1-1-0
3.13
2-0-0
2.98
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-1
3.88
 —
0-1-1
3.24
0-0-2
2.70
1-0-1
2.87
Turun Weikot
0-0-2
3.57
0-0-2
2.27
0-0-2
2.79
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.59
1-1-0
3.22
1-1-0
2.30
 —
1-1-0
2.15
1-0-1
2.35
VIFK
1-1-0
4.02
1-1-0
2.77
1-1-0
3.23
1-1-0
2.95
0-0-2
2.91
1-0-1
4.00
2-0-0
2.84
0-1-1
3.38
 —
0-1-1
2.91
VPS
0-0-2
3.90
0-2-0
2.58
1-1-0
3.12
1-0-1
2.99
1-0-1
2.94
0-2-0
3.73
1-0-1
2.66
1-0-1
3.19
1-1-0
2.63
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.59 +4.2
Allowed 0.29 -2.6
Differential 0.90 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%4.44%5.56%3.89%1.11%—17.22%
14.44%10.00%4.44%2.22%1.67%1.67%24.44%
25.56%4.44%6.67%5.56%3.33%3.33%28.89%
33.89%2.22%5.56%3.33%0.56%—15.56%
41.11%1.67%3.33%0.56%—1.11%7.78%
5+—1.67%3.33%—1.11%—6.11%
Total17.22%24.44%28.89%15.56%7.78%6.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.98 1.98 +0.00
SD 1.62 1.62 2.23
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
1—5.56%5.56%—5.56%11.11%27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
35.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+————5.56%—5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%27.78%—27.78%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 2.56 -0.50
SD 1.63 1.89 2.53
CV 0.79 0.74 —
Max 7 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
111.11%16.67%————27.78%
211.11%—5.56%5.56%——22.22%
316.67%—5.56%———22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total44.44%27.78%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 0.94 +1.17
SD 2.08 1.06 2.43
CV 0.99 1.12 —
Max 9 3 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
1—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
216.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%44.44%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+————5.56%—5.56%
Total22.22%22.22%11.11%27.78%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.06 -0.06
SD 1.64 1.70 1.95
CV 0.82 0.83 —
Max 7 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%—16.67%38.89%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
Total11.11%22.22%33.33%11.11%—22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 2.56 -0.06
SD 2.07 2.23 3.35
CV 0.83 0.87 —
Max 7 9 +6
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%11.11%——22.22%
15.56%——5.56%——11.11%
2—5.56%——11.11%—16.67%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
5+——16.67%———16.67%
Total5.56%11.11%55.56%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 2.17 +0.39
SD 1.95 0.99 2.35
CV 0.76 0.45 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—16.67%——27.78%
1—16.67%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
25.56%—16.67%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%27.78%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.22 -1.00
SD 0.94 1.40 1.61
CV 0.77 0.63 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
15.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
2—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
35.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
4—————5.56%5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%38.89%16.67%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.06 -0.06
SD 1.50 1.73 2.01
CV 0.75 0.84 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
116.67%16.67%16.67%———50.00%
2———5.56%——5.56%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%33.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.89 -0.50
SD 1.29 1.68 1.62
CV 0.93 0.89 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
1—16.67%————16.67%
211.11%—11.11%11.11%5.56%—38.89%
35.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%27.78%27.78%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.56 +0.56
SD 1.28 1.20 1.65
CV 0.61 0.77 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%38.89%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.83 +0.06
SD 1.32 1.65 2.04
CV 0.70 0.90 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ilves-Kissat 1365 25 20.34 +4.66 93.0% 14 15 18 20 23 26 28
VIFK 1347 20 20.75 -0.75 49.0% 13 14 18 21 23 26 30
VPS 1329 18 20.10 -2.10 31.0% 12 15 18 20 23 25 27
TPS Turku 1298 17 20.71 -3.71 19.0% 12 15 18 21 23 27 28
KTP 1293 19 17.43 +1.57 72.0% 11 12 15 18 20 22 27
Kiffen 08 1280 18 17.59 +0.41 61.0% 11 13 15 17 20 23 29
KuPS 1277 22 18.95 +3.05 84.0% 10 13 17 19 21 24 28
Turun Weikot 1224 14 17.30 -3.30 18.0% 10 11 15 17 19 23 26
Haka 1179 17 13.12 +3.88 89.0% 4 8 11 13 15 18 20
Kullervo Helsinki 1137 10 13.71 -3.71 16.0% 6 9 11 13 16 19 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+22.22%
Strong Edge
50.00%22.22%27.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge
174 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
078.52500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.63 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.45+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.6
Wide Open
134510
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
Ilves-Kissat, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Comfortable
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.68 * Some Luck: 2.68 to 4.02 * Lucky: 4.02 to 5.36 * Wild Swing: 5.36 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.58 * Close: 1.58 to 2.38 * Off: 2.38 to 3.17 * Way Off: 3.17 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.03 points
Some Luck
03.358
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
01.984
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.00%
Ilves-Kissat
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
16.00%
Kullervo Helsinki
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 73.00
1.10
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.41.71.92.5
Interquartile Edge
62%
Even
50%62.5%70%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Even
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Some Drama
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Notable Separation
00.330.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.84
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.30
Some Carryover
00.210.460.591
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Shaky Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.94
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.55
Overconfident
0.4128111.001.58719
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.069
Well Within Noise
00.1520.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Ilves-Kissat21.00%15.00%13.00%17.00%16.00%6.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%—
KuPS10.00%7.00%17.00%14.00%15.00%12.00%14.00%4.00%2.00%5.00%
VIFK23.00%20.00%10.00%13.00%13.00%9.00%5.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%
KTP2.00%6.00%13.00%14.00%11.00%7.00%15.00%13.00%13.00%6.00%
VPS9.00%23.00%15.00%13.00%12.00%14.00%5.00%7.00%2.00%—
Kiffen 086.00%7.00%9.00%12.00%7.00%10.00%18.00%16.00%12.00%3.00%
TPS Turku24.00%17.00%15.00%7.00%11.00%11.00%9.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%
Haka——1.00%1.00%2.00%9.00%8.00%10.00%26.00%43.00%
Turun Weikot5.00%5.00%5.00%7.00%9.00%20.00%12.00%21.00%8.00%8.00%
Kullervo Helsinki——2.00%2.00%4.00%2.00%8.00%18.00%32.00%32.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Ilves-Kissat 99.00% 1.00%
VPS 98.00% 2.00%
TPS Turku 97.00% 3.00%
VIFK 96.00% 4.00%
KuPS 93.00% 7.00%
Kiffen 08 85.00% 15.00%
Turun Weikot 84.00% 16.00%
KTP 81.00% 19.00%
Kullervo Helsinki 36.00% 64.00%
Haka 31.00% 69.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1950-04-30 TPS Turku D 1-152.7 1265 1334 46.00% 23.56% 30.45%+0.06 -0.6 1
1950-04-30 @ Ilves-Kissat D 1-152.7 1334 1265 30.45% 23.56% 46.00%-0.06 +0.6 1
1950-04-30 Turun Weikot L 0-144.4 1206 1265 47.29% 23.54% 29.17%+0.11 -8.3 0
1950-04-30 @ Kullervo Helsinki W 1-044.4 1265 1206 29.17% 23.54% 47.29%-0.11 +8.3 2
1950-04-30 Kiffen 08 D 2-257.0 1318 1299 56.31% 23.15% 20.54%+0.56 -1.1 1
1950-04-30 @ VIFK D 2-257.0 1299 1318 20.54% 23.15% 56.31%-0.56 +1.1 1
1950-05-07 Ilves-Kissat L 1-440.1 1151 1265 39.85% 23.53% 36.62%-0.20 -16.7 0
1950-05-07 @ Haka W 4-140.1 1265 1151 36.62% 23.53% 39.85%+0.20 +16.7 3
1950-05-07 KuPS W 4-241.9 1273 1274 54.17% 23.30% 22.53%+0.45 +6.7 4
1950-05-07 @ Turun Weikot L 2-441.9 1274 1273 22.53% 23.30% 54.17%-0.45 -6.7 0
1950-05-14 Haka W 7-128.2 1300 1134 68.62% 21.27% 10.11%+1.40 +9.5 3
1950-05-14 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-728.2 1134 1300 10.11% 21.27% 68.62%-1.40 -9.5 0
1950-05-14 Turun Weikot W 2-033.8 1280 1280 54.29% 23.29% 22.42%+0.45 +8.6 2
1950-05-14 @ KTP L 0-233.8 1280 1280 22.42% 23.29% 54.29%-0.45 -8.6 4
1950-05-14 Kullervo Helsinki W 4-132.8 1267 1198 61.15% 22.66% 16.19%+0.85 +7.9 2
1950-05-14 @ KuPS L 1-432.8 1198 1267 16.19% 22.66% 61.15%-0.85 -7.9 0
1950-05-14 VIFK L 0-244.5 1335 1317 56.14% 23.16% 20.70%+0.55 -18.3 1
1950-05-14 @ TPS Turku W 2-044.5 1317 1335 20.70% 23.16% 56.14%-0.55 +18.3 3
1950-05-18 KTP W 3-031.3 1282 1288 53.49% 23.33% 23.18%+0.41 +12.9 5
1950-05-18 @ Ilves-Kissat L 0-331.3 1288 1282 23.18% 23.33% 53.49%-0.41 -12.9 2
1950-05-18 Haka W 5-128.4 1316 1125 70.29% 20.81% 8.91%+1.55 +5.8 3
1950-05-18 @ TPS Turku L 1-528.4 1125 1316 8.91% 20.81% 70.29%-1.55 -5.8 0
1950-05-18 KuPS L 1-252.4 1337 1275 60.54% 22.74% 16.72%+0.81 -9.8 0
1950-05-18 @ VPS W 2-152.4 1275 1337 16.72% 22.74% 60.54%-0.81 +9.8 4
1950-05-21 VIFK D 2-256.3 1119 1335 26.48% 22.88% 50.64%-0.79 +0.7 1
1950-05-21 @ Haka D 2-256.3 1335 1119 50.64% 22.88% 26.48%+0.79 -0.7 4
1950-05-21 Kiffen 08 W 9-134.2 1294 1310 52.55% 23.38% 24.07%+0.36 +27.4 7
1950-05-21 @ Ilves-Kissat L 1-934.2 1310 1294 24.07% 23.38% 52.55%-0.36 -27.4 3
1950-05-21 VPS D 1-152.3 1190 1328 36.48% 23.45% 40.07%-0.34 +0.1 1
1950-05-21 @ Kullervo Helsinki D 1-152.3 1328 1190 40.07% 23.45% 36.48%+0.34 -0.1 1
1950-05-21 KTP W 3-244.7 1285 1276 55.23% 23.23% 21.54%+0.50 +3.9 6
1950-05-21 @ KuPS L 2-344.7 1276 1285 21.54% 23.23% 55.23%-0.50 -3.9 2
1950-05-28 KuPS L 2-444.4 1120 1289 32.29% 23.28% 44.43%-0.52 -8.9 1
1950-05-28 @ Haka W 4-244.4 1289 1120 44.43% 23.28% 32.29%+0.52 +8.9 8
1950-05-28 TPS Turku L 1-346.3 1282 1322 49.62% 23.49% 26.90%+0.22 -14.2 3
1950-05-28 @ Kiffen 08 W 3-146.3 1322 1282 26.90% 23.49% 49.62%-0.22 +14.2 5
1950-05-28 Kullervo Helsinki D 2-256.4 1272 1190 62.25% 22.51% 15.23%+0.92 -1.4 3
1950-05-28 @ KTP D 2-256.4 1190 1272 15.23% 22.51% 62.25%-0.92 +1.4 2
1950-05-28 VPS W 3-140.1 1271 1327 47.56% 23.54% 28.90%+0.13 +9.2 6
1950-05-28 @ Turun Weikot L 1-340.1 1327 1271 28.90% 23.54% 47.56%-0.13 -9.2 1
1950-05-28 Ilves-Kissat W 3-031.3 1335 1322 55.65% 23.20% 21.15%+0.53 +11.9 6
1950-05-28 @ VIFK L 0-331.3 1322 1335 21.15% 23.20% 55.65%-0.53 -11.9 7
1950-06-04 VIFK D 1-152.8 1270 1347 44.98% 23.56% 31.46%+0.01 -0.5 4
1950-06-04 @ KTP D 1-152.8 1347 1270 31.46% 23.56% 44.98%-0.01 +0.5 7
1950-06-04 Ilves-Kissat L 0-335.9 1191 1310 39.19% 23.52% 37.29%-0.23 -19.5 2
1950-06-04 @ Kullervo Helsinki W 3-035.9 1310 1191 37.29% 23.52% 39.19%+0.23 +19.5 9
1950-06-04 TPS Turku W 4-243.7 1298 1336 49.76% 23.49% 26.76%+0.23 +7.7 10
1950-06-04 @ KuPS L 2-443.7 1336 1298 26.76% 23.49% 49.76%-0.23 -7.7 5
1950-06-04 Kiffen 08 L 1-250.6 1280 1268 55.56% 23.21% 21.24%+0.52 -9.1 6
1950-06-04 @ Turun Weikot W 2-150.6 1268 1280 21.24% 23.21% 55.56%-0.52 +9.1 5
1950-06-04 Haka L 2-358.4 1318 1111 71.25% 20.51% 8.24%+1.64 -10.9 1
1950-06-04 @ VPS W 3-258.4 1111 1318 8.24% 20.51% 71.25%-1.64 +10.9 3
1950-06-11 KTP W 4-240.8 1307 1270 58.17% 22.99% 18.83%+0.67 +5.8 3
1950-06-11 @ VPS L 2-440.8 1270 1307 18.83% 22.99% 58.17%-0.67 -5.7 4
1950-06-18 Turun Weikot W 2-146.1 1122 1271 34.89% 23.39% 41.72%-0.41 +7.0 5
1950-06-18 @ Haka L 1-246.1 1271 1122 41.72% 23.39% 34.89%+0.41 -7.0 6
1950-06-18 VPS D 0-050.2 1329 1313 56.01% 23.17% 20.82%+0.54 -1.6 10
1950-06-18 @ Ilves-Kissat D 0-050.2 1313 1329 20.82% 23.17% 56.01%-0.54 +1.6 4
1950-06-18 KuPS L 2-547.6 1277 1305 51.04% 23.44% 25.52%+0.29 -17.8 5
1950-06-18 @ Kiffen 08 W 5-247.6 1305 1277 25.52% 23.44% 51.04%-0.29 +17.8 12
1950-06-18 KTP W 3-136.1 1329 1264 60.73% 22.72% 16.55%+0.82 +5.7 7
1950-06-18 @ TPS Turku L 1-336.1 1264 1329 16.55% 22.72% 60.73%-0.82 -5.7 4
1950-06-18 Kullervo Helsinki L 2-358.2 1347 1172 69.25% 21.10% 9.65%+1.46 -10.6 7
1950-06-18 @ VIFK W 3-258.2 1172 1347 9.65% 21.10% 69.25%-1.46 +10.6 4
1950-06-21 VIFK W 3-246.4 1315 1337 51.77% 23.41% 24.81%+0.32 +4.4 6
1950-06-21 @ VPS L 2-346.4 1337 1315 24.81% 23.41% 51.77%-0.32 -4.5 7
1950-06-21 Kiffen 08 L 0-337.5 1182 1259 44.90% 23.56% 31.53%+0.01 -21.8 4
1950-06-21 @ Kullervo Helsinki W 3-037.5 1259 1182 31.53% 23.56% 44.90%-0.01 +21.8 7
1950-06-21 Turun Weikot D 3-361.0 1334 1264 61.24% 22.65% 16.11%+0.85 -1.1 8
1950-06-21 @ TPS Turku D 3-361.0 1264 1334 16.11% 22.65% 61.24%-0.85 +1.1 7
1950-06-25 Haka W 2-136.7 1258 1129 66.07% 21.85% 12.07%+1.20 +2.5 6
1950-06-25 @ KTP L 1-236.7 1129 1258 12.07% 21.85% 66.07%-1.20 -2.5 5
1950-06-25 TPS Turku W 2-040.3 1161 1333 31.82% 23.25% 44.93%-0.54 +15.0 6
1950-06-25 @ Kullervo Helsinki L 0-240.3 1333 1161 44.93% 23.25% 31.82%+0.54 -15.0 8
1950-06-25 VIFK W 4-242.9 1323 1332 53.24% 23.35% 23.41%+0.40 +6.9 14
1950-06-25 @ KuPS L 2-442.9 1332 1323 23.41% 23.35% 53.24%-0.40 -6.9 7
1950-06-25 Ilves-Kissat L 0-144.8 1265 1328 46.77% 23.55% 29.69%+0.09 -8.2 7
1950-06-25 @ Turun Weikot W 1-044.8 1328 1265 29.69% 23.55% 46.77%-0.09 +8.2 12
1950-06-25 Kiffen 08 W 2-139.9 1319 1281 58.21% 22.99% 18.80%+0.67 +3.7 8
1950-06-25 @ VPS L 1-239.9 1281 1319 18.80% 22.99% 58.21%-0.67 -3.7 7
1950-07-01 KuPS W 2-034.4 1336 1330 54.92% 23.25% 21.83%+0.49 +8.4 14
1950-07-01 @ Ilves-Kissat L 0-234.4 1330 1336 21.83% 23.25% 54.92%-0.49 -8.4 14
1950-07-02 Kullervo Helsinki W 3-032.2 1126 1176 48.46% 23.52% 28.03%+0.17 +15.0 7
1950-07-02 @ Haka L 0-332.2 1176 1126 28.03% 23.52% 48.46%-0.17 -15.0 6
1950-07-02 KTP W 6-235.9 1277 1261 56.05% 23.17% 20.78%+0.55 +10.8 9
1950-07-02 @ Kiffen 08 L 2-635.9 1261 1277 20.78% 23.17% 56.05%-0.55 -10.8 6
1950-07-02 VPS W 2-141.5 1318 1323 53.75% 23.32% 22.93%+0.42 +4.4 10
1950-07-02 @ TPS Turku L 1-241.5 1323 1318 22.93% 23.32% 53.75%-0.42 -4.4 8
1950-07-02 Turun Weikot D 1-152.8 1325 1257 61.06% 22.68% 16.27%+0.84 -1.8 8
1950-07-02 @ VIFK D 1-152.8 1257 1325 16.27% 22.68% 61.06%-0.84 +1.8 8
1950-07-30 VIFK L 2-547.5 1288 1323 50.20% 23.47% 26.33%+0.25 -17.5 9
1950-07-30 @ Kiffen 08 W 5-247.5 1323 1288 26.33% 23.47% 50.20%-0.25 +17.5 10
1950-07-30 VPS D 0-049.5 1250 1318 46.02% 23.56% 30.43%+0.06 -0.7 7
1950-07-30 @ KTP D 0-049.5 1318 1250 30.43% 23.56% 46.02%-0.06 +0.7 9
1950-07-30 Turun Weikot W 3-243.2 1322 1259 60.56% 22.74% 16.70%+0.81 +3.2 16
1950-07-30 @ KuPS L 2-343.2 1259 1322 16.70% 22.74% 60.56%-0.81 -3.2 8
1950-07-30 Ilves-Kissat L 0-146.9 1323 1344 51.78% 23.41% 24.81%+0.33 -9.0 10
1950-07-30 @ TPS Turku W 1-046.9 1344 1323 24.81% 23.41% 51.78%-0.33 +9.0 16
1950-08-02 Kullervo Helsinki W 2-137.3 1271 1160 64.58% 22.14% 13.28%+1.08 +2.7 11
1950-08-02 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-237.3 1160 1271 13.28% 22.14% 64.58%-1.08 -2.7 6
1950-08-02 Kiffen 08 L 0-141.3 1141 1273 37.27% 23.47% 39.26%-0.31 -6.8 7
1950-08-02 @ Haka W 1-041.3 1273 1141 39.26% 23.47% 37.27%+0.31 +6.8 13
1950-08-02 VPS D 3-361.4 1341 1319 56.58% 23.13% 20.29%+0.58 -0.9 11
1950-08-02 @ VIFK D 3-361.4 1319 1341 20.29% 23.13% 56.58%-0.58 +0.9 10
1950-08-06 KuPS L 2-639.3 1158 1325 32.57% 23.29% 44.14%-0.51 -15.6 6
1950-08-06 @ Kullervo Helsinki W 6-239.3 1325 1158 44.14% 23.29% 32.57%+0.51 +15.6 18
1950-08-06 KTP L 4-751.7 1256 1249 54.94% 23.25% 21.81%+0.49 -16.8 8
1950-08-06 @ Turun Weikot W 7-451.7 1249 1256 21.81% 23.25% 54.94%-0.49 +16.8 9
1950-08-06 VIFK D 1-153.6 1354 1340 55.71% 23.20% 21.09%+0.53 -1.4 17
1950-08-06 @ Ilves-Kissat D 1-153.6 1340 1354 21.09% 23.20% 55.71%-0.53 +1.4 12
1950-08-11 TPS Turku W 1-039.9 1239 1314 45.19% 23.56% 31.25%+0.02 +6.0 10
1950-08-11 @ Turun Weikot L 0-139.9 1314 1239 31.25% 23.56% 45.19%-0.02 -6.0 10
1950-08-13 Ilves-Kissat W 2-037.4 1266 1352 43.69% 23.56% 32.75%-0.04 +11.7 11
1950-08-13 @ KTP L 0-237.4 1352 1266 32.75% 23.56% 43.69%+0.04 -11.7 17
1950-08-13 Kullervo Helsinki D 2-256.9 1320 1142 69.40% 21.06% 9.54%+1.47 -1.9 11
1950-08-13 @ VPS D 2-256.9 1142 1320 9.54% 21.06% 69.40%-1.47 +1.9 7
1950-08-13 Haka L 2-455.3 1340 1134 71.15% 20.54% 8.31%+1.63 -17.8 18
1950-08-13 @ KuPS W 4-255.3 1134 1340 8.31% 20.54% 71.15%-1.63 +17.8 9
1950-08-20 VPS W 2-039.9 1152 1318 32.68% 23.30% 44.02%-0.50 +14.7 11
1950-08-20 @ Haka L 0-239.9 1318 1152 44.02% 23.30% 32.68%+0.50 -14.7 11
1950-08-20 Kullervo Helsinki W 3-239.8 1340 1144 70.57% 20.72% 8.71%+1.58 +1.7 19
1950-08-20 @ Ilves-Kissat L 2-339.8 1144 1340 8.71% 20.72% 70.57%-1.58 -1.7 7
1950-08-20 Turun Weikot D 1-152.4 1280 1245 57.96% 23.01% 19.02%+0.65 -1.6 14
1950-08-20 @ Kiffen 08 D 1-152.4 1245 1280 19.02% 23.01% 57.96%-0.65 +1.6 11
1950-08-20 KuPS W 3-032.0 1308 1322 52.59% 23.38% 24.03%+0.37 +13.2 12
1950-08-20 @ TPS Turku L 0-332.0 1322 1308 24.03% 23.38% 52.59%-0.37 -13.2 18
1950-08-20 KTP W 2-032.3 1341 1278 60.64% 22.73% 16.63%+0.82 +6.6 14
1950-08-20 @ VIFK L 0-232.3 1278 1341 16.63% 22.73% 60.64%-0.82 -6.6 11
1950-09-03 TPS Turku D 3-360.7 1271 1321 48.40% 23.52% 28.08%+0.16 -0.5 12
1950-09-03 @ KTP D 3-360.7 1321 1271 28.08% 23.52% 48.40%-0.16 +0.5 13
1950-09-03 VIFK L 2-346.2 1142 1348 27.75% 22.98% 49.27%-0.73 -4.8 7
1950-09-03 @ Kullervo Helsinki W 3-246.2 1348 1142 49.27% 22.98% 27.75%+0.73 +4.8 16
1950-09-03 Kiffen 08 W 5-238.0 1309 1279 57.47% 23.06% 19.47%+0.63 +8.1 20
1950-09-03 @ KuPS L 2-538.0 1279 1309 19.47% 23.06% 57.47%-0.63 -8.1 14
1950-09-03 Haka L 1-252.0 1246 1167 62.05% 22.54% 15.41%+0.91 -10.1 11
1950-09-03 @ Turun Weikot W 2-152.0 1167 1246 15.41% 22.54% 62.05%-0.91 +10.1 13
1950-09-03 Ilves-Kissat D 2-257.1 1303 1342 49.76% 23.49% 26.75%+0.23 -0.7 12
1950-09-03 @ VPS D 2-257.1 1342 1303 26.75% 23.49% 49.76%-0.23 +0.7 20
1950-09-17 KTP L 3-454.3 1177 1271 42.66% 23.56% 33.78%-0.09 -6.7 13
1950-09-17 @ Haka W 4-354.3 1271 1177 33.78% 23.56% 42.66%+0.09 +6.7 14
1950-09-17 Turun Weikot W 2-030.9 1343 1236 64.29% 22.19% 13.52%+1.06 +5.5 22
1950-09-17 @ Ilves-Kissat L 0-230.9 1236 1343 13.52% 22.19% 64.29%-1.06 -5.5 11
1950-09-17 VPS W 7-236.4 1271 1303 50.57% 23.46% 25.97%+0.27 +15.8 16
1950-09-17 @ Kiffen 08 L 2-736.4 1303 1271 25.97% 23.46% 50.57%-0.27 -15.8 12
1950-09-17 Kullervo Helsinki W 1-032.2 1321 1138 69.79% 20.95% 9.26%+1.51 +2.0 15
1950-09-17 @ TPS Turku L 0-132.2 1138 1321 9.26% 20.95% 69.79%-1.51 -2.0 7
1950-09-17 KuPS L 0-148.6 1353 1317 57.97% 23.01% 19.02%+0.65 -10.0 16
1950-09-17 @ VIFK W 1-048.6 1317 1353 19.02% 23.01% 57.97%-0.65 +10.0 22
1950-10-01 Haka D 2-255.9 1136 1170 50.26% 23.47% 26.27%+0.25 -0.7 8
1950-10-01 @ Kullervo Helsinki D 2-255.9 1170 1136 26.27% 23.47% 50.26%-0.25 +0.7 14
1950-10-01 Ilves-Kissat L 0-340.8 1327 1348 51.88% 23.41% 24.71%+0.33 -24.7 22
1950-10-01 @ KuPS W 3-040.8 1348 1327 24.71% 23.41% 51.88%-0.33 +24.7 24
1950-10-01 VIFK W 1-041.5 1231 1343 40.12% 23.53% 36.35%-0.19 +6.7 13
1950-10-01 @ Turun Weikot L 0-141.5 1343 1231 36.35% 23.53% 40.12%+0.19 -6.7 16
1950-10-01 TPS Turku W 4-136.8 1287 1323 50.04% 23.48% 26.48%+0.24 +12.1 14
1950-10-01 @ VPS L 1-436.8 1323 1287 26.48% 23.48% 50.04%-0.24 -12.1 15
1950-10-08 VPS L 0-243.7 1303 1299 54.65% 23.27% 22.09%+0.47 -17.8 22
1950-10-08 @ KuPS W 2-043.7 1299 1303 22.09% 23.27% 54.65%-0.47 +17.9 16
1950-10-08 Haka W 4-025.1 1336 1171 68.58% 21.28% 10.14%+1.40 +7.9 18
1950-10-08 @ VIFK L 0-425.1 1171 1336 10.14% 21.28% 68.58%-1.40 -7.9 14
1950-10-08 KTP D 1-152.0 1135 1277 35.86% 23.43% 40.71%-0.37 +0.2 9
1950-10-08 @ Kullervo Helsinki D 1-152.0 1277 1135 40.71% 23.43% 35.86%+0.37 -0.2 15
1950-10-08 Kiffen 08 W 3-244.4 1311 1286 56.90% 23.10% 19.99%+0.59 +3.7 17
1950-10-08 @ TPS Turku L 2-344.4 1286 1311 19.99% 23.10% 56.90%-0.59 -3.7 16
1950-10-14 TPS Turku W 7-447.8 1163 1315 34.55% 23.38% 42.07%-0.42 +13.3 16
1950-10-14 @ Haka L 4-747.8 1315 1163 42.07% 23.38% 34.55%+0.42 -13.3 17
1950-10-15 Ilves-Kissat W 3-249.1 1283 1373 43.12% 23.56% 33.32%-0.07 +5.6 18
1950-10-15 @ Kiffen 08 L 2-349.1 1373 1283 33.32% 23.56% 43.12%+0.07 -5.6 24
1950-10-15 KuPS W 3-138.1 1277 1285 53.40% 23.34% 23.26%+0.41 +7.7 17
1950-10-15 @ KTP L 1-338.1 1285 1277 23.26% 23.34% 53.40%-0.41 -7.7 22
1950-10-15 Turun Weikot W 4-027.3 1317 1237 62.04% 22.54% 15.42%+0.91 +11.8 18
1950-10-15 @ VPS L 0-427.3 1237 1317 15.42% 22.54% 62.04%-0.91 -11.8 13
1950-10-22 Kullervo Helsinki D 1-152.2 1226 1135 63.00% 22.40% 14.60%+0.97 -2.0 14
1950-10-22 @ Turun Weikot D 1-152.2 1135 1226 14.60% 22.40% 63.00%-0.97 +2.0 10
1950-10-22 Haka D 1-153.2 1367 1176 70.25% 20.82% 8.93%+1.55 -2.6 25
1950-10-22 @ Ilves-Kissat D 1-153.2 1176 1367 8.93% 20.82% 70.25%-1.55 +2.6 17
1950-10-22 TPS Turku W 3-244.3 1344 1302 58.63% 22.95% 18.42%+0.69 +3.5 20
1950-10-22 @ VIFK L 2-344.3 1302 1344 18.42% 22.95% 58.63%-0.69 -3.5 17
1950-10-22 Kiffen 08 W 2-034.0 1285 1288 53.87% 23.31% 22.82%+0.43 +8.7 19
1950-10-22 @ KTP L 0-234.0 1288 1285 22.82% 23.31% 53.87%-0.43 -8.7 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1950-06-04 8.24% Haka 1111 3 @ VPS 1318 2
2 1950-08-13 8.31% Haka 1134 4 @ KuPS 1340 2
3 1950-06-18 9.65% Kullervo Helsinki 1172 3 @ VIFK 1347 2
4 1950-09-03 15.41% Haka 1167 2 @ Turun Weikot 1246 1
5 1950-05-18 16.72% KuPS 1275 2 @ VPS 1337 1
6 1950-09-17 19.02% KuPS 1317 1 @ VIFK 1353 0
7 1950-05-14 20.70% VIFK 1317 2 @ TPS Turku 1335 0
8 1950-06-04 21.24% Kiffen 08 1268 2 @ Turun Weikot 1280 1
9 1950-08-06 21.81% KTP 1249 7 @ Turun Weikot 1256 4
10 1950-10-08 22.09% VPS 1299 2 @ KuPS 1303 0
11 1950-10-01 24.71% Ilves-Kissat 1348 3 @ KuPS 1327 0
12 1950-07-30 24.81% Ilves-Kissat 1344 1 @ TPS Turku 1323 0
13 1950-06-18 25.52% KuPS 1305 5 @ Kiffen 08 1277 2
14 1950-07-30 26.33% VIFK 1323 5 @ Kiffen 08 1288 2
15 1950-05-28 26.90% TPS Turku 1322 3 @ Kiffen 08 1282 1
16 1950-04-30 29.17% Turun Weikot 1265 1 @ Kullervo Helsinki 1206 0
17 1950-06-25 29.69% Ilves-Kissat 1328 1 @ Turun Weikot 1265 0
18 1950-06-21 31.53% Kiffen 08 1259 3 @ Kullervo Helsinki 1182 0
19 1950-06-25 31.82% @ Kullervo Helsinki 1161 2 TPS Turku 1333 0
20 1950-08-20 32.68% @ Haka 1152 2 VPS 1318 0
21 1950-09-17 33.78% KTP 1271 4 @ Haka 1177 3
22 1950-10-14 34.55% @ Haka 1163 7 TPS Turku 1315 4
23 1950-06-18 34.89% @ Haka 1122 2 Turun Weikot 1271 1
24 1950-05-07 36.62% Ilves-Kissat 1265 4 @ Haka 1151 1
25 1950-06-04 37.29% Ilves-Kissat 1310 3 @ Kullervo Helsinki 1191 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-05-21 27.40 @ Ilves-Kissat 9 1294 52.55% Kiffen 08 1 1310 24.07% 23.38%
2 1950-10-01 24.72 Ilves-Kissat 3 1348 24.71% @ KuPS 0 1327 51.88% 23.41%
3 1950-06-21 21.78 Kiffen 08 3 1259 31.53% @ Kullervo Helsinki 0 1182 44.90% 23.56%
4 1950-06-04 19.50 Ilves-Kissat 3 1310 37.29% @ Kullervo Helsinki 0 1191 39.19% 23.52%
5 1950-05-14 18.31 VIFK 2 1317 20.70% @ TPS Turku 0 1335 56.14% 23.16%
6 1950-10-08 17.85 VPS 2 1299 22.09% @ KuPS 0 1303 54.65% 23.27%
7 1950-06-18 17.79 KuPS 5 1305 25.52% @ Kiffen 08 2 1277 51.04% 23.44%
8 1950-08-13 17.77 Haka 4 1134 8.31% @ KuPS 2 1340 71.15% 20.54%
9 1950-07-30 17.52 VIFK 5 1323 26.33% @ Kiffen 08 2 1288 50.20% 23.47%
10 1950-08-06 16.78 KTP 7 1249 21.81% @ Turun Weikot 4 1256 54.94% 23.25%
11 1950-05-07 16.66 Ilves-Kissat 4 1265 36.62% @ Haka 1 1151 39.85% 23.53%
12 1950-09-17 15.75 @ Kiffen 08 7 1271 50.57% VPS 2 1303 25.97% 23.46%
13 1950-08-06 15.57 KuPS 6 1325 44.14% @ Kullervo Helsinki 2 1158 32.57% 23.29%
14 1950-07-02 15.02 @ Haka 3 1126 48.46% Kullervo Helsinki 0 1176 28.03% 23.52%
15 1950-06-25 14.96 @ Kullervo Helsinki 2 1161 31.82% TPS Turku 0 1333 44.93% 23.25%
16 1950-08-20 14.71 @ Haka 2 1152 32.68% VPS 0 1318 44.02% 23.30%
17 1950-05-28 14.16 TPS Turku 3 1322 26.90% @ Kiffen 08 1 1282 49.62% 23.49%
18 1950-10-14 13.27 @ Haka 7 1163 34.55% TPS Turku 4 1315 42.07% 23.38%
19 1950-08-20 13.25 @ TPS Turku 3 1308 52.59% KuPS 0 1322 24.03% 23.38%
20 1950-05-18 12.86 @ Ilves-Kissat 3 1282 53.49% KTP 0 1288 23.18% 23.33%
21 1950-10-01 12.10 @ VPS 4 1287 50.04% TPS Turku 1 1323 26.48% 23.48%
22 1950-05-28 11.90 @ VIFK 3 1335 55.65% Ilves-Kissat 0 1322 21.15% 23.20%
23 1950-10-15 11.77 @ VPS 4 1317 62.04% Turun Weikot 0 1237 15.42% 22.54%
24 1950-08-13 11.70 @ KTP 2 1266 43.69% Ilves-Kissat 0 1352 32.75% 23.56%
25 1950-06-04 10.90 Haka 3 1111 8.24% @ VPS 2 1318 71.25% 20.51%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-08-02 61.4 @ VIFK 3 1341 56.58% VPS 3 1319 20.29% 23.13%
2 1950-06-21 61.0 @ TPS Turku 3 1334 61.24% Turun Weikot 3 1264 16.11% 22.65%
3 1950-09-03 60.7 @ KTP 3 1271 48.40% TPS Turku 3 1321 28.08% 23.52%
4 1950-06-04 58.4 Haka 3 1111 8.24% @ VPS 2 1318 71.25% 20.51%
5 1950-06-18 58.2 Kullervo Helsinki 3 1172 9.65% @ VIFK 2 1347 69.25% 21.10%
6 1950-09-03 57.1 @ VPS 2 1303 49.76% Ilves-Kissat 2 1342 26.75% 23.49%
7 1950-04-30 57.0 @ VIFK 2 1318 56.31% Kiffen 08 2 1299 20.54% 23.15%
8 1950-08-13 56.9 @ VPS 2 1320 69.40% Kullervo Helsinki 2 1142 9.54% 21.06%
9 1950-05-28 56.4 @ KTP 2 1272 62.25% Kullervo Helsinki 2 1190 15.23% 22.51%
10 1950-05-21 56.3 @ Haka 2 1119 26.48% VIFK 2 1335 50.64% 22.88%
11 1950-10-01 55.9 @ Kullervo Helsinki 2 1136 50.26% Haka 2 1170 26.27% 23.47%
12 1950-08-13 55.3 Haka 4 1134 8.31% @ KuPS 2 1340 71.15% 20.54%
13 1950-09-17 54.3 KTP 4 1271 33.78% @ Haka 3 1177 42.66% 23.56%
14 1950-08-06 53.6 @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1354 55.71% VIFK 1 1340 21.09% 23.20%
15 1950-10-22 53.2 @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1367 70.25% Haka 1 1176 8.93% 20.82%
16 1950-06-04 52.8 @ KTP 1 1270 44.98% VIFK 1 1347 31.46% 23.56%
17 1950-07-02 52.8 @ VIFK 1 1325 61.06% Turun Weikot 1 1257 16.27% 22.68%
18 1950-04-30 52.7 @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1265 46.00% TPS Turku 1 1334 30.45% 23.56%
19 1950-05-18 52.4 KuPS 2 1275 16.72% @ VPS 1 1337 60.54% 22.74%
20 1950-08-20 52.4 @ Kiffen 08 1 1280 57.96% Turun Weikot 1 1245 19.02% 23.01%
21 1950-05-21 52.3 @ Kullervo Helsinki 1 1190 36.48% VPS 1 1328 40.07% 23.45%
22 1950-10-22 52.2 @ Turun Weikot 1 1226 63.00% Kullervo Helsinki 1 1135 14.60% 22.40%
23 1950-09-03 52.0 Haka 2 1167 15.41% @ Turun Weikot 1 1246 62.05% 22.54%
24 1950-10-08 52.0 @ Kullervo Helsinki 1 1135 35.86% KTP 1 1277 40.71% 23.43%
25 1950-08-06 51.7 KTP 7 1249 21.81% @ Turun Weikot 4 1256 54.94% 23.25%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-10-08 25.1 @ VIFK 4 1336 68.58% Haka 0 1171 10.14% 21.28%
2 1950-10-15 27.3 @ VPS 4 1317 62.04% Turun Weikot 0 1237 15.42% 22.54%
3 1950-05-14 28.2 @ Kiffen 08 7 1300 68.62% Haka 1 1134 10.11% 21.27%
4 1950-05-18 28.4 @ TPS Turku 5 1316 70.29% Haka 1 1125 8.91% 20.81%
5 1950-09-17 30.9 @ Ilves-Kissat 2 1343 64.29% Turun Weikot 0 1236 13.52% 22.19%
6 1950-05-18 31.3 @ Ilves-Kissat 3 1282 53.49% KTP 0 1288 23.18% 23.33%
7 1950-05-28 31.3 @ VIFK 3 1335 55.65% Ilves-Kissat 0 1322 21.15% 23.20%
8 1950-08-20 32.0 @ TPS Turku 3 1308 52.59% KuPS 0 1322 24.03% 23.38%
9 1950-07-02 32.2 @ Haka 3 1126 48.46% Kullervo Helsinki 0 1176 28.03% 23.52%
10 1950-09-17 32.2 @ TPS Turku 1 1321 69.79% Kullervo Helsinki 0 1138 9.26% 20.95%
11 1950-08-20 32.3 @ VIFK 2 1341 60.64% KTP 0 1278 16.63% 22.73%
12 1950-05-14 32.8 @ KuPS 4 1267 61.15% Kullervo Helsinki 1 1198 16.19% 22.66%
13 1950-05-14 33.8 @ KTP 2 1280 54.29% Turun Weikot 0 1280 22.42% 23.29%
14 1950-10-22 34.0 @ KTP 2 1285 53.87% Kiffen 08 0 1288 22.82% 23.31%
15 1950-05-21 34.2 @ Ilves-Kissat 9 1294 52.55% Kiffen 08 1 1310 24.07% 23.38%
16 1950-07-01 34.4 @ Ilves-Kissat 2 1336 54.92% KuPS 0 1330 21.83% 23.25%
17 1950-06-04 35.9 Ilves-Kissat 3 1310 37.29% @ Kullervo Helsinki 0 1191 39.19% 23.52%
18 1950-07-02 35.9 @ Kiffen 08 6 1277 56.05% KTP 2 1261 20.78% 23.17%
19 1950-06-18 36.1 @ TPS Turku 3 1329 60.73% KTP 1 1264 16.55% 22.72%
20 1950-09-17 36.4 @ Kiffen 08 7 1271 50.57% VPS 2 1303 25.97% 23.46%
21 1950-06-25 36.7 @ KTP 2 1258 66.07% Haka 1 1129 12.07% 21.85%
22 1950-10-01 36.8 @ VPS 4 1287 50.04% TPS Turku 1 1323 26.48% 23.48%
23 1950-08-02 37.3 @ Kiffen 08 2 1271 64.58% Kullervo Helsinki 1 1160 13.28% 22.14%
24 1950-08-13 37.4 @ KTP 2 1266 43.69% Ilves-Kissat 0 1352 32.75% 23.56%
25 1950-06-21 37.5 Kiffen 08 3 1259 31.53% @ Kullervo Helsinki 0 1182 44.90% 23.56%