Home / Leagues / Finland / Mestaruussarja / 1951
‹ ›

1951 Mestaruussarja Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KTP

27 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

KTP

4.64 points above expected

27 points · 22.36 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ilves-Kissat

8.96 points below expected

5 points · 13.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KTP Champion 18 10 7 1 27 44 26 +18 22.36 +4.64
2 VIFK 18 10 6 2 26 45 24 +21 22.29 +3.71
3 Turun Pallokerho 18 8 7 3 23 40 25 +15 19.98 +3.02
4 Haka 18 7 5 6 19 38 32 +6 18.79 +0.21
5 KuPS 18 8 2 8 18 38 35 +3 18.16 -0.16
6 TPS Turku 18 7 4 7 18 41 41 0 17.60 +0.40
7 Kiffen 08 18 8 2 8 18 40 42 -2 18.02 -0.02
8 VPS 18 5 7 6 17 34 31 +3 18.84 -1.84
9 Sudet 18 3 3 12 9 18 52 -34 10.00 -1.00
10 Ilves-Kissat 18 1 3 14 5 17 47 -30 13.96 -8.96

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KTP 27 22.36 +4.64
2 VIFK 26 22.29 +3.71
3 Turun Pallokerho 23 19.98 +3.02
4 TPS Turku 18 17.60 +0.40
5 Haka 19 18.79 +0.21

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ilves-Kissat 5 13.96 -8.96
2 VPS 17 18.84 -1.84
3 Sudet 9 10.00 -1.00
4 KuPS 18 18.16 -0.16
5 Kiffen 08 18 18.02 -0.02

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Haka 5 Jul 29 – Aug 26 1 in 30
2 KuPS 4 Sep 9 – Oct 7 1 in 17
3 Turun Pallokerho 2 May 3 – May 6 1 in 11
4 VPS 2 Aug 12 – Aug 18 1 in 10
5 VIFK 3 Jun 3 – Jun 17 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ilves-Kissat 7 Aug 19 – Oct 14 1 in 66
2 TPS Turku 4 Jun 17 – Aug 12 1 in 39
3 Sudet 6 Aug 24 – Oct 14 1 in 15
4 KuPS 3 Aug 12 – Aug 26 1 in 11
5 Haka 2 Sep 9 – Sep 16 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Haka 10 May 20 – Aug 26 1 in 81
2 VIFK 13 Jun 3 – Oct 14 1 in 35
3 KTP 10 May 3 – Aug 5 1 in 18
4 TPS Turku 5 Aug 19 – Sep 23 1 in 17
5 Turun Pallokerho 8 Aug 12 – Oct 14 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ilves-Kissat 9 May 3 – Jul 29 1 in 53
2 Haka 5 Sep 9 – Oct 14 1 in 14
3 VPS 5 May 18 – Jun 17 1 in 14
4 Turun Pallokerho 4 Aug 5 – Aug 24 1 in 13
5 TPS Turku 6 Jun 17 – Aug 24 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
KTP 1526 27 +46 8 6.6 +1.4
VIFK 1537 26 +64 9 7.0 +2.0
Turun Pallokerho 1490 23 +105 9 5.9 +3.1
Haka 1357 19 -124 1 5.4 -4.4
KuPS 1371 18 +70 8 5.8 +2.2
TPS Turku 1353 18 +78 7 5.2 +1.8
Kiffen 08 1300 18 -52 4 4.3 -0.3
VPS 1355 17 -14 4 5.0 -1.0
Sudet 1034 9 -107 0 2.2 -2.2
Ilves-Kissat 1102 5 -67 0 2.5 -2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team HAK ILV KTP K0 KUP SUD TT TP VIF VPS
Haka —
1-1-0
3.26
0-1-1
2.26
1-0-1
3.12
1-0-1
3.11
1-1-0
3.98
1-0-1
2.96
0-1-1
2.48
1-0-1
2.23
1-1-0
2.90
Ilves-Kissat
0-1-1
2.21
 —
0-0-2
0.91
0-0-2
2.19
0-0-2
2.17
0-0-2
3.59
0-0-2
1.98
0-1-1
2.25
0-0-2
1.08
1-1-0
2.08
KTP
1-1-0
3.20
2-0-0
4.60
 —
1-1-0
3.75
2-0-0
3.56
2-0-0
4.18
1-1-0
3.24
1-1-0
3.12
0-1-1
2.99
0-2-0
3.48
Kiffen 08
1-0-1
2.35
2-0-0
3.27
0-1-1
1.72
 —
1-0-1
2.68
2-0-0
3.69
1-0-1
2.96
0-0-2
2.72
1-1-0
2.33
0-0-2
2.89
KuPS
1-0-1
2.35
2-0-0
3.29
0-0-2
1.90
1-0-1
2.78
 —
1-0-1
4.16
2-0-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.61
0-1-1
1.86
0-1-1
2.64
Sudet
0-1-1
1.50
2-0-0
1.88
0-0-2
1.30
0-0-2
1.78
1-0-1
1.32
 —
0-1-1
1.55
0-0-2
1.06
0-0-2
1.05
0-1-1
1.28
TPS Turku
1-0-1
2.50
2-0-0
3.49
0-1-1
2.22
1-0-1
2.50
0-0-2
2.78
1-1-0
3.92
 —
1-1-0
2.22
0-1-1
2.29
1-0-1
2.48
Turun Pallokerho
1-1-0
2.97
1-1-0
3.22
0-1-1
2.34
2-0-0
2.74
1-0-1
2.85
2-0-0
4.45
0-1-1
3.24
 —
0-2-0
2.47
1-1-0
3.16
VIFK
1-0-1
3.23
2-0-0
4.41
1-1-0
2.47
0-1-1
3.13
1-1-0
3.60
2-0-0
4.45
1-1-0
3.17
0-2-0
2.99
 —
2-0-0
2.77
VPS
0-1-1
2.56
0-1-1
3.39
0-2-0
1.99
2-0-0
2.57
1-1-0
2.82
1-1-0
4.20
1-0-1
2.97
0-1-1
2.30
0-0-2
2.69
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.88 +6.4
Allowed 0.78 -6.3
Differential 0.93 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%2.78%2.78%2.78%1.67%1.11%13.33%
12.78%14.44%7.78%4.44%2.78%3.33%35.56%
22.78%7.78%4.44%2.78%1.11%1.11%20.00%
32.78%4.44%2.78%4.44%0.56%0.56%15.56%
41.67%2.78%1.11%0.56%—1.67%7.78%
5+1.11%3.33%1.11%0.56%1.67%—7.78%
Total13.33%35.56%20.00%15.56%7.78%7.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.97 1.97 +0.00
SD 1.57 1.57 2.24
CV 0.80 0.80 —
Max 8 8 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1—16.67%5.56%11.11%5.56%—38.89%
25.56%11.11%——5.56%—22.22%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+—11.11%——5.56%—16.67%
Total16.67%38.89%11.11%16.67%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.78 +0.33
SD 1.88 1.40 2.17
CV 0.89 0.79 —
Max 7 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
1—16.67%16.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%61.11%
2———————
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total—27.78%27.78%16.67%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 2.61 -1.67
SD 0.87 1.50 1.71
CV 0.92 0.57 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—16.67%————16.67%
25.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
35.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%44.44%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 1.44 +1.00
SD 1.04 0.86 1.28
CV 0.43 0.59 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%11.11%5.56%—22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
2———————
3—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
4—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
Total11.11%27.78%16.67%27.78%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 2.33 -0.11
SD 1.86 1.88 2.74
CV 0.84 0.81 —
Max 5 8 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
15.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
25.56%11.11%—11.11%5.56%5.56%38.89%
3———————
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
Total16.67%33.33%16.67%11.11%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.94 +0.17
SD 1.84 1.55 2.18
CV 0.87 0.80 —
Max 7 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——11.11%—11.11%27.78%
15.56%11.11%16.67%11.11%—11.11%55.56%
2—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
3———————
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%16.67%27.78%—27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.89 -1.89
SD 0.97 2.03 2.22
CV 0.97 0.70 —
Max 4 7 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%—5.56%
15.56%11.11%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
3—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
45.56%————11.11%16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total16.67%33.33%16.67%5.56%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 2.28 +0.00
SD 1.36 2.08 2.43
CV 0.60 0.91 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
25.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
35.56%——16.67%——22.22%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%16.67%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.39 +0.83
SD 1.35 1.09 1.58
CV 0.61 0.79 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
1—22.22%———5.56%27.78%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total11.11%66.67%11.11%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.33 +1.17
SD 1.72 1.14 2.23
CV 0.69 0.85 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
1—27.78%22.22%5.56%5.56%—61.11%
2———————
311.11%—11.11%5.56%——27.78%
4———————
5+————5.56%—5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%33.33%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.72 +0.17
SD 1.81 1.23 1.76
CV 0.96 0.71 —
Max 8 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
VIFK 1537 26 22.29 +3.71 93.0% 14 18 20 22 24 27 29
KTP 1526 27 22.36 +4.64 95.0% 14 17 20 23 25 27 28
Turun Pallokerho 1490 23 19.98 +3.02 83.0% 10 14 17 20 22 26 28
KuPS 1371 18 18.16 -0.16 55.0% 9 13 16 18 20 23 24
Haka 1357 19 18.79 +0.21 55.0% 10 13 16 19 21 24 27
VPS 1355 17 18.84 -1.84 30.0% 10 13 17 19 21 24 26
TPS Turku 1353 18 17.60 +0.40 61.0% 10 12 15 17 20 23 25
Kiffen 08 1300 18 18.02 -0.02 58.0% 7 11 16 18 20 24 28
Ilves-Kissat 1102 5 13.96 -8.96 0.0% 6 9 12 14 16 20 25
Sudet 1034 9 10.00 -1.00 47.0% 3 5 8 10 12 15 16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-1.11%
No Edge
36.67%25.56%37.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -3.86 Elo pts.
155 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.03 goals
Neutral
-2-0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.0
Top-Heavy
134510
Champion Preseason Odds
34%
KTP, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.69 * Some Luck: 2.69 to 4.04 * Lucky: 4.04 to 5.39 * Wild Swing: 5.39 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.41 * Close: 1.41 to 2.12 * Off: 2.12 to 2.82 * Way Off: 2.82 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.60 points
Some Luck
03.378
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.764
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
KTP
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Ilves-Kissat
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 166.32
1.87
Strong Separation
0.951.41.71.92.5
Interquartile Edge
70%
Slight Edge
50%62.5%70%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
95%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Some Drama
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
28%
Very Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Slight Separation
00.330.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.13
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.10
Weak Carryover
00.210.460.591
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Solid Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.70
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.02
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.079
Well Within Noise
00.1800.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KTP34.00%24.00%16.00%8.00%6.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%——
VIFK33.00%21.00%17.00%13.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%—1.00%—
Turun Pallokerho13.00%14.00%12.00%18.00%14.00%8.00%10.00%4.00%6.00%1.00%
Haka2.00%10.00%14.00%13.00%24.00%9.00%9.00%16.00%1.00%2.00%
KuPS2.00%6.00%12.00%13.00%14.00%15.00%14.00%14.00%10.00%—
TPS Turku4.00%13.00%5.00%3.00%12.00%20.00%10.00%22.00%8.00%3.00%
Kiffen 084.00%5.00%9.00%12.00%7.00%20.00%21.00%10.00%9.00%3.00%
VPS7.00%7.00%12.00%16.00%14.00%12.00%13.00%11.00%7.00%1.00%
Sudet——————2.00%6.00%19.00%73.00%
Ilves-Kissat1.00%—3.00%4.00%1.00%5.00%14.00%16.00%39.00%17.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KTP 100% —
VIFK 99.00% 1.00%
Haka 97.00% 3.00%
Turun Pallokerho 93.00% 7.00%
VPS 92.00% 8.00%
KuPS 90.00% 10.00%
TPS Turku 89.00% 11.00%
Kiffen 08 88.00% 12.00%
Ilves-Kissat 44.00% 56.00%
Sudet 8.00% 92.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1951-05-03 TPS Turku L 1-343.2 1335 1365 32.27% 27.08% 40.65%-0.22 -28.7 0
1951-05-03 @ Haka W 3-143.2 1365 1335 40.65% 27.08% 32.27%+0.22 +28.7 2
1951-05-03 VIFK W 1-044.8 1360 1377 34.04% 27.10% 38.86%-0.13 +20.2 2
1951-05-03 @ Kiffen 08 L 0-144.8 1377 1360 38.86% 27.10% 34.04%+0.13 -20.2 0
1951-05-03 Sudet W 2-140.4 1364 1208 55.35% 26.58% 18.06%+0.98 +10.5 2
1951-05-03 @ KTP L 1-240.4 1208 1364 18.06% 26.58% 55.35%-0.98 -10.5 0
1951-05-03 KuPS W 2-042.1 1302 1360 28.62% 27.03% 44.35%-0.40 +42.2 2
1951-05-03 @ Turun Pallokerho L 0-242.1 1360 1302 44.35% 27.03% 28.62%+0.40 -42.3 0
1951-05-03 Ilves-Kissat D 1-153.1 1372 1381 35.16% 27.10% 37.74%-0.08 +0.3 1
1951-05-03 @ VPS D 1-153.1 1381 1372 37.74% 27.10% 35.16%+0.08 -0.3 1
1951-05-06 Turun Pallokerho L 0-145.4 1381 1344 41.63% 27.07% 31.30%+0.21 -21.3 1
1951-05-06 @ Ilves-Kissat W 1-045.4 1344 1381 31.30% 27.07% 41.63%-0.21 +21.3 4
1951-05-06 VPS D 0-049.2 1317 1373 28.91% 27.04% 44.05%-0.38 +1.8 1
1951-05-06 @ KuPS D 0-049.2 1373 1317 44.05% 27.04% 28.91%+0.38 -1.8 2
1951-05-06 Haka D 0-048.0 1198 1306 22.67% 26.85% 50.48%-0.72 +3.4 1
1951-05-06 @ Sudet D 0-048.0 1306 1198 50.48% 26.85% 22.67%+0.72 -3.4 1
1951-05-06 Kiffen 08 W 2-147.9 1394 1380 38.33% 27.10% 34.57%+0.06 +17.5 4
1951-05-06 @ TPS Turku L 1-247.9 1380 1394 34.57% 27.10% 38.33%-0.06 -17.4 2
1951-05-06 KTP D 2-257.0 1357 1374 34.01% 27.10% 38.89%-0.14 +0.4 1
1951-05-06 @ VIFK D 2-257.0 1374 1357 38.89% 27.10% 34.01%+0.14 -0.4 3
1951-05-14 KuPS L 1-440.6 1303 1319 34.16% 27.10% 38.74%-0.13 -42.4 1
1951-05-14 @ Haka W 4-140.6 1319 1303 38.74% 27.10% 34.16%+0.13 +42.4 3
1951-05-14 Sudet L 1-251.6 1360 1201 55.68% 26.56% 17.76%+1.00 -25.9 1
1951-05-14 @ Ilves-Kissat W 2-151.6 1201 1360 17.76% 26.56% 55.68%-1.00 +25.9 3
1951-05-14 TPS Turku W 5-143.5 1374 1411 31.28% 27.07% 41.64%-0.26 +63.5 5
1951-05-14 @ KTP L 1-543.5 1411 1374 41.64% 27.07% 31.28%+0.26 -63.5 4
1951-05-14 VIFK D 1-152.6 1365 1357 37.60% 27.10% 35.30%+0.03 -0.2 5
1951-05-14 @ Turun Pallokerho D 1-152.6 1357 1365 35.30% 27.10% 37.60%-0.03 +0.2 2
1951-05-14 Kiffen 08 W 3-037.7 1371 1363 37.60% 27.10% 35.30%+0.03 +51.5 4
1951-05-14 @ VPS L 0-337.7 1363 1371 35.30% 27.10% 37.60%-0.03 -51.5 2
1951-05-18 Sudet W 5-031.5 1311 1227 47.68% 26.95% 25.37%+0.52 +64.6 4
1951-05-18 @ Kiffen 08 L 0-531.5 1227 1311 25.37% 26.95% 47.68%-0.52 -64.6 3
1951-05-18 Turun Pallokerho W 1-044.4 1348 1365 33.96% 27.10% 38.95%-0.14 +20.2 6
1951-05-18 @ TPS Turku L 0-144.4 1365 1348 38.95% 27.10% 33.96%+0.14 -20.2 5
1951-05-18 VPS W 4-146.0 1358 1422 27.73% 27.01% 45.26%-0.44 +52.6 4
1951-05-18 @ VIFK L 1-446.0 1422 1358 45.26% 27.01% 27.73%+0.44 -52.6 4
1951-05-20 Ilves-Kissat D 1-151.3 1261 1334 26.67% 26.98% 46.34%-0.50 +2.1 2
1951-05-20 @ Haka D 1-151.3 1334 1261 46.34% 26.98% 26.67%+0.50 -2.1 2
1951-05-20 KTP L 2-350.4 1361 1437 26.39% 26.98% 46.64%-0.51 -13.5 3
1951-05-20 @ KuPS W 3-250.4 1437 1361 46.64% 26.98% 26.39%+0.51 +13.5 7
1951-05-27 KuPS L 1-246.3 1332 1348 34.18% 27.10% 38.72%-0.13 -17.3 2
1951-05-27 @ Ilves-Kissat W 2-146.3 1348 1332 38.72% 27.10% 34.18%+0.13 +17.3 5
1951-05-27 Turun Pallokerho L 0-339.2 1376 1345 40.82% 27.08% 32.10%+0.18 -57.4 4
1951-05-27 @ Kiffen 08 W 3-039.2 1345 1376 32.10% 27.08% 40.82%-0.18 +57.4 7
1951-05-27 VPS D 1-154.6 1451 1370 47.27% 26.96% 25.77%+0.50 -2.3 8
1951-05-27 @ KTP D 1-154.6 1370 1451 25.77% 26.96% 47.27%-0.50 +2.3 5
1951-05-27 Sudet D 1-151.2 1368 1162 59.75% 26.20% 14.05%+1.30 -5.3 7
1951-05-27 @ TPS Turku D 1-151.2 1162 1368 14.05% 26.20% 59.75%-1.30 +5.3 4
1951-05-27 Haka L 1-545.5 1410 1263 54.59% 26.63% 18.78%+0.93 -80.4 4
1951-05-27 @ VIFK W 5-145.5 1263 1410 18.78% 26.63% 54.59%-0.93 +80.4 4
1951-06-02 KuPS W 1-048.7 1168 1365 14.62% 26.27% 59.11%-1.30 +29.1 6
1951-06-02 @ Sudet L 0-148.7 1365 1168 59.11% 26.27% 14.62%+1.30 -29.1 5
1951-06-03 KTP D 1-153.9 1343 1449 23.00% 26.86% 50.14%-0.70 +2.9 5
1951-06-03 @ Haka D 1-153.9 1449 1343 50.14% 26.86% 23.00%+0.70 -2.9 9
1951-06-03 Ilves-Kissat W 4-141.2 1319 1315 37.02% 27.10% 35.88%+0.00 +43.9 6
1951-06-03 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-441.2 1315 1319 35.88% 27.10% 37.02%+0.00 -43.9 2
1951-06-03 VPS D 3-362.0 1402 1372 40.70% 27.08% 32.22%+0.17 -0.5 8
1951-06-03 @ Turun Pallokerho D 3-362.0 1372 1402 32.22% 27.08% 40.70%-0.17 +0.5 6
1951-06-03 TPS Turku W 4-037.5 1330 1362 31.89% 27.08% 41.03%-0.24 +75.3 6
1951-06-03 @ VIFK L 0-437.5 1362 1330 41.03% 27.08% 31.89%+0.24 -75.3 7
1951-06-10 Turun Pallokerho W 3-252.8 1446 1402 42.53% 27.06% 30.41%+0.26 +15.1 11
1951-06-10 @ KTP L 2-352.8 1402 1446 30.41% 27.06% 42.53%-0.26 -15.0 8
1951-06-10 Kiffen 08 L 2-544.6 1336 1363 32.73% 27.09% 40.18%-0.20 -35.5 5
1951-06-10 @ KuPS W 5-244.6 1363 1336 40.18% 27.09% 32.73%+0.20 +35.6 8
1951-06-10 VIFK L 1-239.2 1197 1405 13.84% 26.18% 59.98%-1.37 -8.4 6
1951-06-10 @ Sudet W 2-139.2 1405 1197 59.98% 26.18% 13.84%+1.37 +8.4 8
1951-06-10 Ilves-Kissat W 4-034.4 1287 1271 38.79% 27.10% 34.11%+0.08 +65.6 9
1951-06-10 @ TPS Turku L 0-434.4 1271 1287 34.11% 27.10% 38.79%-0.08 -65.6 2
1951-06-10 Haka L 1-248.6 1373 1346 40.21% 27.09% 32.70%+0.15 -19.5 6
1951-06-10 @ VPS W 2-148.6 1346 1373 32.70% 27.09% 40.21%-0.15 +19.5 7
1951-06-17 VIFK L 1-632.0 1205 1414 13.84% 26.18% 59.98%-1.37 -32.5 2
1951-06-17 @ Ilves-Kissat W 6-132.0 1414 1205 59.98% 26.18% 13.84%+1.37 +32.5 10
1951-06-17 KTP D 3-364.1 1398 1461 28.02% 27.02% 44.97%-0.43 +1.1 9
1951-06-17 @ Kiffen 08 D 3-364.1 1461 1398 44.97% 27.02% 28.02%+0.43 -1.1 12
1951-06-17 TPS Turku W 2-148.8 1301 1353 29.32% 27.04% 43.64%-0.36 +20.8 7
1951-06-17 @ KuPS L 1-248.8 1353 1301 43.64% 27.04% 29.32%+0.36 -20.8 9
1951-06-17 Haka D 3-361.6 1387 1365 39.47% 27.09% 33.44%+0.11 -0.4 9
1951-06-17 @ Turun Pallokerho D 3-361.6 1365 1387 33.44% 27.09% 39.47%-0.11 +0.4 8
1951-06-17 Sudet D 1-151.2 1353 1188 56.23% 26.52% 17.25%+1.04 -4.4 7
1951-06-17 @ VPS D 1-151.2 1188 1353 17.25% 26.52% 56.23%-1.04 +4.4 7
1951-07-29 Kiffen 08 W 2-042.6 1366 1399 31.79% 27.08% 41.13%-0.24 +39.8 10
1951-07-29 @ Haka L 0-242.6 1399 1366 41.13% 27.08% 31.79%+0.24 -39.8 9
1951-07-29 Ilves-Kissat W 3-028.2 1460 1173 65.39% 25.38% 9.23%+1.82 +17.0 14
1951-07-29 @ KTP L 0-328.2 1173 1460 9.23% 25.38% 65.39%-1.82 -16.9 2
1951-07-29 Turun Pallokerho L 1-532.7 1193 1386 14.92% 26.30% 58.78%-1.27 -28.3 7
1951-07-29 @ Sudet W 5-132.7 1386 1193 58.78% 26.30% 14.92%+1.27 +28.3 11
1951-07-29 VPS L 2-350.7 1332 1349 34.07% 27.10% 38.83%-0.13 -16.4 9
1951-07-29 @ TPS Turku W 3-250.7 1349 1332 38.83% 27.10% 34.07%+0.13 +16.4 9
1951-07-29 KuPS D 1-153.5 1446 1321 52.24% 26.77% 20.99%+0.78 -3.4 11
1951-07-29 @ VIFK D 1-153.5 1321 1446 20.99% 26.77% 52.24%-0.78 +3.4 8
1951-08-05 VPS W 3-149.9 1156 1365 13.77% 26.17% 60.06%-1.37 +48.4 4
1951-08-05 @ Ilves-Kissat L 1-349.9 1365 1156 60.06% 26.17% 13.77%+1.37 -48.3 9
1951-08-05 Turun Pallokerho W 1-047.6 1325 1415 24.74% 26.93% 48.33%-0.60 +24.1 10
1951-08-05 @ KuPS L 0-147.6 1415 1325 48.33% 26.93% 24.74%+0.60 -24.1 11
1951-08-05 KTP L 1-334.7 1164 1477 8.11% 25.08% 66.81%-2.03 -8.9 7
1951-08-05 @ Sudet W 3-134.7 1477 1164 66.81% 25.08% 8.11%+2.03 +8.9 16
1951-08-05 Haka L 4-745.6 1316 1406 24.73% 26.93% 48.35%-0.60 -25.3 9
1951-08-05 @ TPS Turku W 7-445.6 1406 1316 48.35% 26.93% 24.73%+0.60 +25.3 12
1951-08-05 Kiffen 08 D 1-154.1 1443 1359 47.53% 26.95% 25.52%+0.51 -2.3 12
1951-08-05 @ VIFK D 1-154.1 1359 1443 25.52% 26.95% 47.53%-0.51 +2.3 10
1951-08-12 Sudet W 3-028.1 1431 1155 64.69% 25.51% 9.80%+1.75 +17.9 14
1951-08-12 @ Haka L 0-328.1 1155 1431 9.80% 25.51% 64.69%-1.75 -17.9 7
1951-08-12 TPS Turku W 5-348.2 1362 1290 46.11% 26.99% 26.90%+0.44 +21.2 12
1951-08-12 @ Kiffen 08 L 3-548.2 1290 1362 26.90% 26.99% 46.11%-0.44 -21.2 9
1951-08-12 VIFK L 2-358.9 1485 1440 42.71% 27.06% 30.24%+0.27 -19.4 16
1951-08-12 @ KTP W 3-258.9 1440 1485 30.24% 27.06% 42.71%-0.27 +19.4 14
1951-08-12 Ilves-Kissat D 1-151.5 1391 1204 58.19% 26.36% 15.46%+1.18 -4.9 12
1951-08-12 @ Turun Pallokerho D 1-151.5 1204 1391 15.46% 26.36% 58.19%-1.18 +4.9 5
1951-08-12 KuPS W 3-252.6 1317 1349 31.95% 27.08% 40.97%-0.23 +18.8 11
1951-08-12 @ VPS L 2-352.6 1349 1317 40.97% 27.08% 31.95%+0.23 -18.8 10
1951-08-18 VPS L 4-847.9 1383 1336 43.01% 27.05% 29.94%+0.28 -47.6 12
1951-08-18 @ Kiffen 08 W 8-447.9 1336 1383 29.94% 27.05% 43.01%-0.28 +47.6 13
1951-08-19 Haka L 1-244.0 1330 1449 21.60% 26.80% 51.60%-0.79 -12.2 10
1951-08-19 @ KuPS W 2-144.0 1449 1330 51.60% 26.80% 21.60%+0.79 +12.2 16
1951-08-19 Ilves-Kissat W 4-356.5 1138 1209 26.93% 26.99% 46.08%-0.48 +20.2 9
1951-08-19 @ Sudet L 3-456.5 1209 1138 46.08% 26.99% 26.93%+0.48 -20.2 5
1951-08-19 KTP D 2-257.3 1269 1466 14.67% 26.27% 59.06%-1.29 +3.8 10
1951-08-19 @ TPS Turku D 2-257.3 1466 1269 59.06% 26.27% 14.67%+1.29 -3.8 17
1951-08-19 Turun Pallokerho D 3-363.7 1460 1386 46.41% 26.98% 26.61%+0.45 -1.3 15
1951-08-19 @ VIFK D 3-363.7 1386 1460 26.61% 26.98% 46.41%-0.45 +1.3 13
1951-08-24 Kiffen 08 L 1-336.7 1158 1335 16.17% 26.42% 57.40%-1.17 -16.6 9
1951-08-24 @ Sudet W 3-136.7 1335 1158 57.40% 26.42% 16.17%+1.17 +16.6 14
1951-08-24 TPS Turku D 2-256.2 1387 1273 51.10% 26.82% 22.08%+0.71 -2.3 14
1951-08-24 @ Turun Pallokerho D 2-256.2 1273 1387 22.08% 26.82% 51.10%-0.71 +2.4 11
1951-08-24 VIFK L 1-247.0 1383 1458 26.45% 26.98% 46.57%-0.51 -14.3 13
1951-08-24 @ VPS W 2-147.0 1458 1383 46.57% 26.98% 26.45%+0.51 +14.3 17
1951-08-26 Haka L 1-531.5 1189 1461 9.96% 25.54% 64.49%-1.78 -19.8 5
1951-08-26 @ Ilves-Kissat W 5-131.5 1461 1189 64.49% 25.54% 9.96%+1.78 +19.8 18
1951-08-26 KuPS W 4-244.7 1462 1318 54.26% 26.65% 19.08%+0.90 +17.1 19
1951-08-26 @ KTP L 2-444.7 1318 1462 19.08% 26.65% 54.26%-0.90 -17.1 10
1951-09-09 VIFK L 1-253.9 1481 1473 37.61% 27.10% 35.29%+0.03 -18.6 18
1951-09-09 @ Haka W 2-153.9 1473 1481 35.29% 27.10% 37.61%-0.03 +18.6 19
1951-09-09 Ilves-Kissat W 2-033.7 1301 1169 53.01% 26.73% 20.26%+0.82 +23.1 12
1951-09-09 @ KuPS L 0-233.7 1169 1301 20.26% 26.73% 53.01%-0.82 -23.1 5
1951-09-09 TPS Turku L 0-529.5 1141 1275 20.06% 26.71% 53.23%-0.89 -53.6 9
1951-09-09 @ Sudet W 5-029.5 1275 1141 53.23% 26.71% 20.06%+0.89 +53.6 13
1951-09-09 Kiffen 08 W 4-035.4 1385 1352 41.03% 27.08% 31.89%+0.19 +62.4 16
1951-09-09 @ Turun Pallokerho L 0-435.4 1352 1385 31.89% 27.08% 41.03%-0.19 -62.4 14
1951-09-09 KTP D 1-155.3 1369 1479 22.47% 26.84% 50.69%-0.74 +3.1 14
1951-09-09 @ VPS D 1-155.3 1479 1369 50.69% 26.84% 22.47%+0.74 -3.0 20
1951-09-16 Kiffen 08 L 1-337.5 1146 1290 19.13% 26.66% 54.22%-0.95 -19.1 5
1951-09-16 @ Ilves-Kissat W 3-137.5 1290 1146 54.22% 26.66% 19.13%+0.95 +19.1 16
1951-09-16 Haka W 2-045.4 1476 1462 38.44% 27.10% 34.46%+0.07 +34.8 22
1951-09-16 @ KTP L 0-245.4 1462 1476 34.46% 27.10% 38.44%-0.07 -34.8 18
1951-09-16 Sudet W 7-232.7 1324 1088 62.10% 25.92% 11.98%+1.50 +24.0 14
1951-09-16 @ KuPS L 2-732.7 1088 1324 11.98% 25.92% 62.10%-1.50 -24.0 9
1951-09-16 VIFK D 1-154.7 1329 1491 17.45% 26.53% 56.02%-1.07 +4.3 14
1951-09-16 @ TPS Turku D 1-154.7 1491 1329 56.02% 26.53% 17.45%+1.07 -4.3 20
1951-09-16 Turun Pallokerho L 1-246.4 1372 1447 26.47% 26.98% 46.55%-0.51 -14.3 14
1951-09-16 @ VPS W 2-146.4 1447 1372 46.55% 26.98% 26.47%+0.51 +14.3 18
1951-09-23 VPS D 1-153.8 1427 1358 45.89% 27.00% 27.12%+0.42 -2.0 19
1951-09-23 @ Haka D 1-153.8 1358 1427 27.12% 27.00% 45.89%-0.42 +2.0 15
1951-09-23 TPS Turku L 1-335.9 1127 1333 13.97% 26.19% 59.84%-1.35 -14.7 5
1951-09-23 @ Ilves-Kissat W 3-135.9 1333 1127 59.84% 26.19% 13.97%+1.35 +14.7 16
1951-09-23 KuPS L 1-439.9 1309 1348 31.01% 27.07% 41.92%-0.28 -39.4 16
1951-09-23 @ Kiffen 08 W 4-139.9 1348 1309 41.92% 27.07% 31.01%+0.28 +39.4 16
1951-09-23 KTP D 2-263.7 1461 1511 29.64% 27.05% 43.31%-0.34 +1.1 19
1951-09-23 @ Turun Pallokerho D 2-263.7 1511 1461 43.31% 27.05% 29.64%+0.34 -1.1 23
1951-09-23 Sudet W 6-128.0 1487 1064 71.91% 23.53% 4.56%+2.70 +11.3 22
1951-09-23 @ VIFK L 1-628.0 1064 1487 4.56% 23.53% 71.91%-2.70 -11.3 9
1951-10-07 Turun Pallokerho L 2-451.3 1425 1462 31.32% 27.07% 41.61%-0.26 -25.1 19
1951-10-07 @ Haka W 4-251.3 1462 1425 41.61% 27.07% 31.32%+0.26 +25.1 21
1951-10-07 Kiffen 08 W 3-138.0 1510 1269 62.40% 25.87% 11.73%+1.52 +12.6 25
1951-10-07 @ KTP L 1-338.0 1269 1510 11.73% 25.87% 62.40%-1.52 -12.6 16
1951-10-07 VPS L 0-326.9 1052 1360 8.31% 25.14% 66.55%-2.00 -15.3 9
1951-10-07 @ Sudet W 3-026.9 1360 1052 66.55% 25.14% 8.31%+2.00 +15.4 17
1951-10-07 KuPS L 4-556.4 1348 1387 30.97% 27.07% 41.96%-0.28 -14.7 16
1951-10-07 @ TPS Turku W 5-456.4 1387 1348 41.96% 27.07% 30.97%+0.28 +14.7 18
1951-10-07 Ilves-Kissat W 2-029.1 1498 1112 70.39% 24.09% 5.52%+2.46 +7.1 24
1951-10-07 @ VIFK L 0-229.1 1112 1498 5.52% 24.09% 70.39%-2.46 -7.1 5
1951-10-14 KTP L 1-235.9 1105 1523 4.69% 23.62% 71.68%-2.71 -3.0 5
1951-10-14 @ Ilves-Kissat W 2-135.9 1523 1105 71.68% 23.62% 4.69%+2.71 +3.0 27
1951-10-14 Haka W 3-149.2 1257 1400 19.15% 26.66% 54.20%-0.95 +43.7 18
1951-10-14 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-349.2 1400 1257 54.20% 26.66% 19.15%+0.95 -43.7 19
1951-10-14 VIFK L 1-442.8 1402 1505 23.25% 26.87% 49.88%-0.69 -31.6 18
1951-10-14 @ KuPS W 4-142.8 1505 1402 49.88% 26.87% 23.25%+0.69 +31.6 26
1951-10-14 Sudet W 2-134.9 1488 1037 72.93% 23.11% 3.96%+2.88 +2.5 23
1951-10-14 @ Turun Pallokerho L 1-234.9 1037 1488 3.96% 23.11% 72.93%-2.88 -2.5 9
1951-10-14 TPS Turku L 1-249.1 1375 1333 42.25% 27.06% 30.68%+0.24 -20.3 17
1951-10-14 @ VPS W 2-149.1 1333 1375 30.68% 27.06% 42.25%-0.24 +20.3 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1951-08-05 13.77% @ Ilves-Kissat 1156 3 VPS 1365 1
2 1951-06-02 14.62% @ Sudet 1168 1 KuPS 1365 0
3 1951-05-14 17.76% Sudet 1201 2 @ Ilves-Kissat 1360 1
4 1951-05-27 18.78% Haka 1263 5 @ VIFK 1410 1
5 1951-10-14 19.15% @ Kiffen 08 1257 3 Haka 1400 1
6 1951-08-05 24.74% @ KuPS 1325 1 Turun Pallokerho 1415 0
7 1951-08-19 26.93% @ Sudet 1138 4 Ilves-Kissat 1209 3
8 1951-05-18 27.73% @ VIFK 1358 4 VPS 1422 1
9 1951-05-03 28.62% @ Turun Pallokerho 1302 2 KuPS 1360 0
10 1951-06-17 29.32% @ KuPS 1301 2 TPS Turku 1353 1
11 1951-08-18 29.94% VPS 1336 8 @ Kiffen 08 1383 4
12 1951-08-12 30.24% VIFK 1440 3 @ KTP 1485 2
13 1951-10-14 30.68% TPS Turku 1333 2 @ VPS 1375 1
14 1951-05-14 31.28% @ KTP 1374 5 TPS Turku 1411 1
15 1951-05-06 31.30% Turun Pallokerho 1344 1 @ Ilves-Kissat 1381 0
16 1951-07-29 31.79% @ Haka 1366 2 Kiffen 08 1399 0
17 1951-06-03 31.89% @ VIFK 1330 4 TPS Turku 1362 0
18 1951-08-12 31.95% @ VPS 1317 3 KuPS 1349 2
19 1951-05-27 32.10% Turun Pallokerho 1345 3 @ Kiffen 08 1376 0
20 1951-06-10 32.70% Haka 1346 2 @ VPS 1373 1
21 1951-05-18 33.96% @ TPS Turku 1348 1 Turun Pallokerho 1365 0
22 1951-05-03 34.04% @ Kiffen 08 1360 1 VIFK 1377 0
23 1951-09-09 35.29% VIFK 1473 2 @ Haka 1481 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-05-27 80.37 Haka 5 1263 18.78% @ VIFK 1 1410 54.59% 26.63%
2 1951-06-03 75.29 @ VIFK 4 1330 31.89% TPS Turku 0 1362 41.03% 27.08%
3 1951-06-10 65.58 @ TPS Turku 4 1287 38.79% Ilves-Kissat 0 1271 34.11% 27.10%
4 1951-05-18 64.62 @ Kiffen 08 5 1311 47.68% Sudet 0 1227 25.37% 26.95%
5 1951-05-14 63.49 @ KTP 5 1374 31.28% TPS Turku 1 1411 41.64% 27.07%
6 1951-09-09 62.38 @ Turun Pallokerho 4 1385 41.03% Kiffen 08 0 1352 31.89% 27.08%
7 1951-05-27 57.40 Turun Pallokerho 3 1345 32.10% @ Kiffen 08 0 1376 40.82% 27.08%
8 1951-09-09 53.64 TPS Turku 5 1275 53.23% @ Sudet 0 1141 20.06% 26.71%
9 1951-05-18 52.63 @ VIFK 4 1358 27.73% VPS 1 1422 45.26% 27.01%
10 1951-05-14 51.47 @ VPS 3 1371 37.60% Kiffen 08 0 1363 35.30% 27.10%
11 1951-08-05 48.36 @ Ilves-Kissat 3 1156 13.77% VPS 1 1365 60.06% 26.17%
12 1951-08-18 47.58 VPS 8 1336 29.94% @ Kiffen 08 4 1383 43.01% 27.05%
13 1951-06-03 43.92 @ Kiffen 08 4 1319 37.02% Ilves-Kissat 1 1315 35.88% 27.10%
14 1951-10-14 43.72 @ Kiffen 08 3 1257 19.15% Haka 1 1400 54.20% 26.66%
15 1951-05-14 42.37 KuPS 4 1319 38.74% @ Haka 1 1303 34.16% 27.10%
16 1951-05-03 42.26 @ Turun Pallokerho 2 1302 28.62% KuPS 0 1360 44.35% 27.03%
17 1951-07-29 39.76 @ Haka 2 1366 31.79% Kiffen 08 0 1399 41.13% 27.08%
18 1951-09-23 39.43 KuPS 4 1348 41.92% @ Kiffen 08 1 1309 31.01% 27.07%
19 1951-06-10 35.55 Kiffen 08 5 1363 40.18% @ KuPS 2 1336 32.73% 27.09%
20 1951-09-16 34.82 @ KTP 2 1476 38.44% Haka 0 1462 34.46% 27.10%
21 1951-06-17 32.54 VIFK 6 1414 59.98% @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1205 13.84% 26.18%
22 1951-10-14 31.61 VIFK 4 1505 49.88% @ KuPS 1 1402 23.25% 26.87%
23 1951-06-02 29.14 @ Sudet 1 1168 14.62% KuPS 0 1365 59.11% 26.27%
24 1951-05-03 28.73 TPS Turku 3 1365 40.65% @ Haka 1 1335 32.27% 27.08%
25 1951-07-29 28.34 Turun Pallokerho 5 1386 58.78% @ Sudet 1 1193 14.92% 26.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-06-17 64.1 @ Kiffen 08 3 1398 28.02% KTP 3 1461 44.97% 27.02%
2 1951-08-19 63.7 @ VIFK 3 1460 46.41% Turun Pallokerho 3 1386 26.61% 26.98%
3 1951-09-23 63.7 @ Turun Pallokerho 2 1461 29.64% KTP 2 1511 43.31% 27.05%
4 1951-06-03 62.0 @ Turun Pallokerho 3 1402 40.70% VPS 3 1372 32.22% 27.08%
5 1951-06-17 61.6 @ Turun Pallokerho 3 1387 39.47% Haka 3 1365 33.44% 27.09%
6 1951-08-12 58.9 VIFK 3 1440 30.24% @ KTP 2 1485 42.71% 27.06%
7 1951-08-19 57.3 @ TPS Turku 2 1269 14.67% KTP 2 1466 59.06% 26.27%
8 1951-05-06 57.0 @ VIFK 2 1357 34.01% KTP 2 1374 38.89% 27.10%
9 1951-08-19 56.5 @ Sudet 4 1138 26.93% Ilves-Kissat 3 1209 46.08% 26.99%
10 1951-10-07 56.4 KuPS 5 1387 41.96% @ TPS Turku 4 1348 30.97% 27.07%
11 1951-08-24 56.2 @ Turun Pallokerho 2 1387 51.10% TPS Turku 2 1273 22.08% 26.82%
12 1951-09-09 55.3 @ VPS 1 1369 22.47% KTP 1 1479 50.69% 26.84%
13 1951-09-16 54.7 @ TPS Turku 1 1329 17.45% VIFK 1 1491 56.02% 26.53%
14 1951-05-27 54.6 @ KTP 1 1451 47.27% VPS 1 1370 25.77% 26.96%
15 1951-08-05 54.1 @ VIFK 1 1443 47.53% Kiffen 08 1 1359 25.52% 26.95%
16 1951-06-03 53.9 @ Haka 1 1343 23.00% KTP 1 1449 50.14% 26.86%
17 1951-09-09 53.9 VIFK 2 1473 35.29% @ Haka 1 1481 37.61% 27.10%
18 1951-09-23 53.8 @ Haka 1 1427 45.89% VPS 1 1358 27.12% 27.00%
19 1951-07-29 53.5 @ VIFK 1 1446 52.24% KuPS 1 1321 20.99% 26.77%
20 1951-05-03 53.1 @ VPS 1 1372 35.16% Ilves-Kissat 1 1381 37.74% 27.10%
21 1951-06-10 52.8 @ KTP 3 1446 42.53% Turun Pallokerho 2 1402 30.41% 27.06%
22 1951-05-14 52.6 @ Turun Pallokerho 1 1365 37.60% VIFK 1 1357 35.30% 27.10%
23 1951-08-12 52.6 @ VPS 3 1317 31.95% KuPS 2 1349 40.97% 27.08%
24 1951-05-14 51.6 Sudet 2 1201 17.76% @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1360 55.68% 26.56%
25 1951-08-12 51.5 @ Turun Pallokerho 1 1391 58.19% Ilves-Kissat 1 1204 15.46% 26.36%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-10-07 26.9 VPS 3 1360 66.55% @ Sudet 0 1052 8.31% 25.14%
2 1951-09-23 28.0 @ VIFK 6 1487 71.91% Sudet 1 1064 4.56% 23.53%
3 1951-08-12 28.1 @ Haka 3 1431 64.69% Sudet 0 1155 9.80% 25.51%
4 1951-07-29 28.2 @ KTP 3 1460 65.39% Ilves-Kissat 0 1173 9.23% 25.38%
5 1951-10-07 29.1 @ VIFK 2 1498 70.39% Ilves-Kissat 0 1112 5.52% 24.09%
6 1951-09-09 29.5 TPS Turku 5 1275 53.23% @ Sudet 0 1141 20.06% 26.71%
7 1951-05-18 31.5 @ Kiffen 08 5 1311 47.68% Sudet 0 1227 25.37% 26.95%
8 1951-08-26 31.5 Haka 5 1461 64.49% @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1189 9.96% 25.54%
9 1951-06-17 32.0 VIFK 6 1414 59.98% @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1205 13.84% 26.18%
10 1951-07-29 32.7 Turun Pallokerho 5 1386 58.78% @ Sudet 1 1193 14.92% 26.30%
11 1951-09-16 32.7 @ KuPS 7 1324 62.10% Sudet 2 1088 11.98% 25.92%
12 1951-09-09 33.7 @ KuPS 2 1301 53.01% Ilves-Kissat 0 1169 20.26% 26.73%
13 1951-06-10 34.4 @ TPS Turku 4 1287 38.79% Ilves-Kissat 0 1271 34.11% 27.10%
14 1951-08-05 34.7 KTP 3 1477 66.81% @ Sudet 1 1164 8.11% 25.08%
15 1951-10-14 34.9 @ Turun Pallokerho 2 1488 72.93% Sudet 1 1037 3.96% 23.11%
16 1951-09-09 35.4 @ Turun Pallokerho 4 1385 41.03% Kiffen 08 0 1352 31.89% 27.08%
17 1951-09-23 35.9 TPS Turku 3 1333 59.84% @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1127 13.97% 26.19%
18 1951-10-14 35.9 KTP 2 1523 71.68% @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1105 4.69% 23.62%
19 1951-08-24 36.7 Kiffen 08 3 1335 57.40% @ Sudet 1 1158 16.17% 26.42%
20 1951-06-03 37.5 @ VIFK 4 1330 31.89% TPS Turku 0 1362 41.03% 27.08%
21 1951-09-16 37.5 Kiffen 08 3 1290 54.22% @ Ilves-Kissat 1 1146 19.13% 26.66%
22 1951-05-14 37.7 @ VPS 3 1371 37.60% Kiffen 08 0 1363 35.30% 27.10%
23 1951-10-07 38.0 @ KTP 3 1510 62.40% Kiffen 08 1 1269 11.73% 25.87%
24 1951-05-27 39.2 Turun Pallokerho 3 1345 32.10% @ Kiffen 08 0 1376 40.82% 27.08%
25 1951-06-10 39.2 VIFK 2 1405 59.98% @ Sudet 1 1197 13.84% 26.18%