1952 Mestaruussarja Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KTP

26 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1951

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Janteva Kotka

7.93 points above expected

18 points · 10.07 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

TPS Turku

3.96 points below expected

12 points · 15.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	KTP Champion	18	10	6	2	26	52	20	+32	24.67	+1.33
2	VIFK	18	10	2	6	22	43	22	+21	24.13	-2.13
3	Pyrkiva Turku	18	8	5	5	21	41	26	+15	17.20	+3.80
4	Janteva Kotka	18	6	6	6	18	26	24	+2	10.07	+7.93
5	KuPS	18	7	4	7	18	28	31	-3	19.78	-1.78
6	VPS	18	7	2	9	16	29	32	-3	19.13	-3.13
7	Haka	18	7	2	9	16	32	45	-13	16.54	-0.54
8	Kiffen 08	18	6	4	8	16	31	45	-14	14.16	+1.84
9	Turun Pallokerho	18	5	5	8	15	22	39	-17	18.36	-3.36
10	TPS Turku	18	5	2	11	12	18	38	-20	15.96	-3.96

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Janteva Kotka	18	10.07	+7.93
2	Pyrkiva Turku	21	17.20	+3.80
3	Kiffen 08	16	14.16	+1.84
4	KTP	26	24.67	+1.33
5	Haka	16	16.54	-0.54

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	TPS Turku	12	15.96	-3.96
2	Turun Pallokerho	15	18.36	-3.36
3	VPS	16	19.13	-3.13
4	VIFK	22	24.13	-2.13
5	KuPS	18	19.78	-1.78

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Haka	5	Sep 14 – Oct 26	1 in 147
2	Janteva Kotka	2	Aug 13 – Aug 17	1 in 82
3	Pyrkiva Turku	3	Sep 28 – Oct 19	1 in 43
4	Kiffen 08	2	Jun 8 – Jun 15	1 in 28
5	TPS Turku	3	May 11 – May 22	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kiffen 08	3	Aug 10 – Aug 24	1 in 34
2	Haka	4	Jun 8 – Aug 17	1 in 15
3	VPS	3	Aug 17 – Sep 7	1 in 13
4	TPS Turku	3	May 28 – Jun 8	1 in 10
5	Turun Pallokerho	2	May 1 – May 11	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Janteva Kotka	7	Jun 2 – Sep 7	1 in 2,935
2	KTP	14	May 11 – Oct 12	1 in 23
3	Haka	5	Sep 14 – Oct 26	1 in 13
4	Pyrkiva Turku	4	Sep 28 – Oct 26	1 in 12
5	Kiffen 08	3	Oct 12 – Oct 26	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Haka	8	May 18 – Aug 17	1 in 44
2	KTP	3	Oct 12 – Oct 26	1 in 28
3	TPS Turku	7	May 28 – Aug 22	1 in 28
4	KuPS	5	Aug 24 – Oct 12	1 in 13
5	VPS	3	May 11 – May 22	1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
KTP	1596	26	-32	6	7.7	-1.7
VIFK	1403	22	-52	5	5.7	-0.7
Pyrkiva Turku	1442	21	+120	7	5.1	+1.9
Janteva Kotka	1252	18	+36	4	3.6	+0.4
KuPS	1324	18	-49	3	5.0	-2.0
Haka	1384	16	+164	10	5.1	+4.9
Kiffen 08	1233	16	+18	6	4.1	+1.9
VPS	1283	16	-13	5	5.7	-0.7
Turun Pallokerho	1223	15	-115	3	4.8	-1.8
TPS Turku	1124	12	-77	1	3.2	-2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	HAK	JK	KTP	K0	KUP	PT	TT	TP	VIF	VPS
Haka	—	1-1-0 3.93	0-0-2 1.04	1-0-1 2.54	0-0-2 2.05	1-1-0 2.54	1-0-1 3.26	2-0-0 2.92	0-0-2 1.82	1-0-1 2.25
Janteva Kotka	0-1-1 1.63	—	0-2-0 0.71	1-0-1 2.24	1-1-0 1.40	0-0-2 1.23	2-0-0 1.12	0-2-0 1.64	1-0-1 0.79	1-0-1 1.35
KTP	2-0-0 4.53	0-2-0 4.88	—	1-0-1 4.22	2-0-0 3.94	0-2-0 3.70	2-0-0 3.91	2-0-0 3.30	0-2-0 3.16	1-0-1 3.91
Kiffen 08	1-0-1 3.02	1-0-1 3.32	1-0-1 1.37	—	0-1-1 1.81	0-0-2 3.25	0-1-1 2.33	0-1-1 2.17	2-0-0 0.95	1-1-0 1.93
KuPS	2-0-0 3.50	0-1-1 4.17	0-0-2 1.62	1-1-0 3.75	—	0-1-1 3.28	1-0-1 3.01	1-1-0 2.70	1-0-1 2.08	1-0-1 2.86
Pyrkiva Turku	0-1-1 3.01	2-0-0 4.34	0-2-0 1.86	2-0-0 2.30	1-1-0 2.28	—	1-1-0 2.96	1-0-1 2.72	1-0-1 1.64	0-0-2 2.09
TPS Turku	1-0-1 2.29	0-0-2 4.45	0-0-2 1.67	1-1-0 3.23	1-0-1 2.54	0-1-1 2.59	—	0-0-2 2.33	1-0-1 1.57	1-0-1 2.18
Turun Pallokerho	0-0-2 2.64	0-2-0 3.93	0-0-2 2.26	1-1-0 3.39	0-1-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.83	2-0-0 3.22	—	0-0-2 1.94	1-1-0 2.30
VIFK	2-0-0 3.75	1-0-1 4.81	0-2-0 2.40	0-0-2 4.63	1-0-1 3.48	1-0-1 3.92	1-0-1 4.00	2-0-0 3.62	—	2-0-0 3.72
VPS	1-0-1 3.30	1-0-1 4.22	1-0-1 1.65	0-1-1 3.63	1-0-1 2.70	2-0-0 3.47	1-0-1 3.38	0-1-1 3.25	0-0-2 1.84	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.89	+3.7
Allowed	0.62	-3.4
Differential	0.94	+2.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.44%	3.89%	7.78%	1.11%	2.78%	2.22%	22.22%
1	3.89%	10.00%	6.67%	2.22%	3.33%	1.67%	27.78%
2	7.78%	6.67%	6.67%	1.67%	3.33%	1.11%	27.22%
3	1.11%	2.22%	1.67%	—	1.67%	—	6.67%
4	2.78%	3.33%	3.33%	1.67%	—	—	11.11%
5+	2.22%	1.67%	1.11%	—	—	—	5.00%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	27.22%	6.67%	11.11%	5.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.79	1.79	+0.00
SD	1.65	1.65	2.55
CV	0.92	0.92	—
Max	8	8	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	16.67%	—	—	16.67%	33.33%
1	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	2.50	-0.72
SD	1.99	2.41	3.66
CV	1.12	0.96	—
Max	8	8	+6
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	38.89%	33.33%	—	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.33	+0.11
SD	1.46	1.19	1.94
CV	1.01	0.89	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	27.78%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.89	1.11	+1.78
SD	2.19	1.08	2.76
CV	0.76	0.97	—
Max	8	4	+8
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	50.00%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	16.67%	27.78%	—	22.22%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	2.50	-0.78
SD	0.89	2.46	2.46
CV	0.52	0.98	—
Max	4	8	+2
Min	1	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.72	-0.17
SD	1.04	1.23	1.82
CV	0.67	0.71	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	38.89%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	38.89%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.28	1.44	+0.83
SD	2.14	1.25	2.53
CV	0.94	0.86	—
Max	8	4	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	38.89%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	2.11	-1.11
SD	0.97	1.37	1.94
CV	0.97	0.65	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
1	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	44.44%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	16.67%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	2.17	-0.94
SD	1.00	1.86	1.95
CV	0.82	0.86	—
Max	4	6	+1
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	33.33%	22.22%	38.89%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.39	1.22	+1.17
SD	2.00	1.11	2.71
CV	0.84	0.91	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.78	-0.17
SD	1.46	1.44	2.01
CV	0.91	0.81	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
KTP	1596	26	24.67	+1.33	68.0%	15	17	23	25	27	29	31
Pyrkiva Turku	1442	21	17.20	+3.80	86.0%	8	11	15	17	20	23	26
VIFK	1403	22	24.13	-2.13	27.0%	15	19	22	24	26	29	31
Haka	1384	16	16.54	-0.54	54.0%	9	11	15	16	19	22	30
KuPS	1324	18	19.78	-1.78	36.0%	11	13	18	20	22	26	28
VPS	1283	16	19.13	-3.13	21.0%	10	12	17	20	21	24	26
Janteva Kotka	1252	18	10.07	+7.93	100.0%	1	5	8	10	12	14	17
Kiffen 08	1233	16	14.16	+1.84	75.0%	5	9	12	14	16	18	24
Turun Pallokerho	1223	15	18.36	-3.36	24.0%	9	11	16	19	21	24	26
TPS Turku	1124	12	15.96	-3.96	13.0%	9	10	14	16	18	21	27

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+16.67%

Clear Edge

47.78%21.11%31.11%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 58.45 Elo pts.

314 Elo

0.003 goals per Elo point

0800

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.38 goals

Neutral

-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.6

One-Team Race

134510

Champion Preseason Odds

52%

KTP, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.22/gm

Runaway

00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.75 * Some Luck: 2.75 to 4.12 * Lucky: 4.12 to 5.49 * Wild Swing: 5.49 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.19 * Close: 1.19 to 1.78 * Off: 1.78 to 2.38 * Way Off: 2.38 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.57 points

Some Luck

03.439

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.00

Off

01.493

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

100.00%

Janteva Kotka

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

13.00%

TPS Turku

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.12

Balanced

00.150.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 134.49

1.07

Coin-Flip Parity

0.951.41.71.92.5

Interquartile Edge

72%

Clear Edge

50%62.5%70%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 93%

94%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

49%

Few

0%44%100%

Blowouts

Expected

24%

Frequent

0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.65

Hard to Predict

00.572

Matchup Imbalance

0.43

Lopsided

00.330.410.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.27

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.26

Some Carryover

00.210.460.591

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Upset-Prone

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Very Shaky

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.

Probability calibration

0.26

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.27

Overconfident

0.04732381.001.95268

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.153

Well Within Noise

00.1650.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
KTP	52.00%	27.00%	10.00%	5.00%	2.00%	—	2.00%	2.00%	—	—
VIFK	34.00%	38.00%	14.00%	6.00%	4.00%	2.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—
Pyrkiva Turku	3.00%	7.00%	9.00%	8.00%	22.00%	14.00%	12.00%	12.00%	10.00%	3.00%
Janteva Kotka	—	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	9.00%	20.00%	64.00%
KuPS	6.00%	12.00%	22.00%	15.00%	15.00%	13.00%	4.00%	4.00%	8.00%	1.00%
VPS	1.00%	6.00%	23.00%	26.00%	11.00%	13.00%	5.00%	12.00%	1.00%	2.00%
Haka	1.00%	—	6.00%	12.00%	11.00%	21.00%	18.00%	14.00%	10.00%	7.00%
Kiffen 08	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	8.00%	12.00%	20.00%	22.00%	22.00%	13.00%
Turun Pallokerho	2.00%	9.00%	12.00%	16.00%	17.00%	10.00%	12.00%	7.00%	12.00%	3.00%
TPS Turku	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	10.00%	9.00%	13.00%	22.00%	17.00%	17.00%	7.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
KTP	100%	—
VIFK	100%	—
VPS	97.00%	3.00%
KuPS	91.00%	9.00%
Pyrkiva Turku	87.00%	13.00%
Turun Pallokerho	85.00%	15.00%
Haka	83.00%	17.00%
TPS Turku	76.00%	24.00%
Kiffen 08	65.00%	35.00%
Janteva Kotka	16.00%	84.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1952-04-27	VIFK	L 0-2	43.1	1358	1435	40.32%	22.38%	37.30%	-0.06	-35.0	0
1952-04-27	@ Haka	W 2-0	43.1	1435	1358	37.30%	22.38%	40.32%	+0.06	+35.0	2
1952-04-27	Turun Pallokerho	D 2-2	59.4	1332	1417	39.20%	22.38%	38.42%	-0.08	-0.0	1
1952-04-27	@ Kiffen 08	D 2-2	59.4	1417	1332	38.42%	22.38%	39.20%	+0.08	+0.1	1
1952-04-27	KuPS	W 2-1	44.6	1356	1364	49.51%	22.35%	28.13%	+0.16	+13.1	2
1952-04-27	@ TPS Turku	L 1-2	44.6	1364	1356	28.13%	22.35%	49.51%	-0.16	-13.2	0
1952-04-27	Pyrkiva Turku	W 1-0	34.9	1357	1225	63.57%	21.92%	14.51%	+0.60	+7.9	2
1952-04-27	@ VPS	L 0-1	34.9	1225	1357	14.51%	21.92%	63.57%	-0.60	-7.9	0
1952-05-01	TPS Turku	W 3-1	52.5	994	1369	10.37%	21.12%	68.51%	-1.01	+49.4	2
1952-05-01	@ Janteva Kotka	L 1-3	52.5	1369	994	68.51%	21.12%	10.37%	+1.01	-49.3	2
1952-05-01	KTP	L 2-5	53.3	1418	1424	49.70%	22.35%	27.95%	+0.16	-44.3	1
1952-05-01	@ Turun Pallokerho	W 5-2	53.3	1424	1418	27.95%	22.35%	49.70%	-0.16	+44.3	2
1952-05-04	Haka	W 3-2	47.4	1351	1323	53.77%	22.29%	23.94%	+0.28	+10.9	2
1952-05-04	@ KuPS	L 2-3	47.4	1323	1351	23.94%	22.29%	53.77%	-0.28	-10.9	0
1952-05-04	Kiffen 08	W 8-1	40.2	1218	1332	34.99%	22.35%	42.67%	-0.18	+96.8	2
1952-05-04	@ Pyrkiva Turku	L 1-8	40.2	1332	1218	42.67%	22.35%	34.99%	+0.18	-96.8	1
1952-05-04	VPS	L 1-4	53.0	1468	1365	61.22%	22.05%	16.73%	+0.51	-62.4	2
1952-05-04	@ KTP	W 4-1	53.0	1365	1468	16.73%	22.05%	61.22%	-0.51	+62.4	4
1952-05-04	Janteva Kotka	W 5-1	29.3	1470	1043	77.34%	19.56%	3.10%	+1.54	+5.3	4
1952-05-04	@ VIFK	L 1-5	29.3	1043	1470	3.10%	19.56%	77.34%	-1.54	-5.3	2
1952-05-11	Turun Pallokerho	W 3-1	44.4	1312	1373	42.52%	22.39%	35.10%	-0.01	+27.2	2
1952-05-11	@ Haka	L 1-3	44.4	1373	1312	35.10%	22.39%	42.52%	+0.01	-27.2	1
1952-05-11	Pyrkiva Turku	D 2-2	59.0	1406	1314	60.19%	22.09%	17.71%	+0.48	-3.3	3
1952-05-11	@ KTP	D 2-2	59.0	1314	1406	17.71%	22.09%	60.19%	-0.48	+3.3	3
1952-05-11	Janteva Kotka	D 0-0	49.5	1362	1038	74.08%	20.57%	5.35%	+1.21	-8.6	3
1952-05-11	@ KuPS	D 0-0	49.5	1038	1362	5.35%	20.57%	74.08%	-1.21	+8.6	3
1952-05-11	VIFK	W 2-1	51.9	1320	1475	29.65%	22.26%	48.09%	-0.31	+20.2	4
1952-05-11	@ TPS Turku	L 1-2	51.9	1475	1320	48.09%	22.26%	29.65%	+0.31	-20.2	4
1952-05-11	Kiffen 08	D 1-1	53.8	1428	1236	67.75%	21.58%	10.67%	+0.80	-6.2	5
1952-05-11	@ VPS	D 1-1	53.8	1236	1428	10.67%	21.58%	67.75%	-0.80	+6.2	2
1952-05-18	TPS Turku	L 0-2	44.3	1339	1340	50.39%	22.34%	27.26%	+0.18	-42.3	2
1952-05-18	@ Haka	W 2-0	44.3	1340	1339	27.26%	22.34%	50.39%	-0.18	+42.3	6
1952-05-18	Pyrkiva Turku	L 1-2	39.3	1047	1318	17.48%	21.80%	60.72%	-0.68	-8.8	3
1952-05-18	@ Janteva Kotka	W 2-1	39.3	1318	1047	60.72%	21.80%	17.48%	+0.68	+8.8	5
1952-05-18	KTP	L 2-4	46.3	1242	1403	28.97%	22.25%	48.78%	-0.33	-20.8	2
1952-05-18	@ Kiffen 08	W 4-2	46.3	1403	1242	48.78%	22.25%	28.97%	+0.33	+20.8	5
1952-05-18	VPS	W 1-0	44.0	1346	1421	40.58%	22.38%	37.04%	-0.05	+17.4	3
1952-05-18	@ Turun Pallokerho	L 0-1	44.0	1421	1346	37.04%	22.38%	40.58%	+0.05	-17.4	5
1952-05-18	KuPS	W 2-0	36.3	1455	1353	61.10%	22.05%	16.85%	+0.51	+17.1	6
1952-05-18	@ VIFK	L 0-2	36.3	1353	1455	16.85%	22.05%	61.10%	-0.51	-17.1	3
1952-05-21	Turun Pallokerho	L 0-1	45.4	1326	1363	45.82%	22.38%	31.80%	+0.07	-20.6	5
1952-05-21	@ Pyrkiva Turku	W 1-0	45.4	1363	1326	31.80%	22.38%	45.82%	-0.07	+20.6	5
1952-05-22	Haka	D 1-1	52.4	1038	1297	18.53%	21.87%	59.60%	-0.64	+4.2	4
1952-05-22	@ Janteva Kotka	D 1-1	52.4	1297	1038	59.60%	21.87%	18.53%	+0.64	-4.2	3
1952-05-22	VPS	W 2-0	40.8	1336	1404	41.61%	22.39%	36.00%	-0.03	+32.0	5
1952-05-22	@ KuPS	L 0-2	40.8	1404	1336	36.00%	22.39%	41.61%	+0.03	-32.0	5
1952-05-22	Kiffen 08	W 2-1	38.6	1382	1221	65.74%	21.76%	12.50%	+0.70	+6.5	8
1952-05-22	@ TPS Turku	L 1-2	38.6	1221	1382	12.50%	21.76%	65.74%	-0.70	-6.5	2
1952-05-22	KTP	D 1-1	58.4	1472	1424	55.98%	22.24%	21.78%	+0.34	-3.5	7
1952-05-22	@ VIFK	D 1-1	58.4	1424	1472	21.78%	22.24%	55.98%	-0.34	+3.5	6
1952-05-25	Janteva Kotka	W 1-0	33.3	1214	1042	66.48%	21.70%	11.81%	+0.73	+6.6	4
1952-05-25	@ Kiffen 08	L 0-1	33.3	1042	1214	11.81%	21.70%	66.48%	-0.73	-6.6	4
1952-05-25	KuPS	W 4-0	34.2	1427	1368	57.06%	22.21%	20.73%	+0.37	+38.7	8
1952-05-25	@ KTP	L 0-4	34.2	1368	1427	20.73%	22.21%	57.06%	-0.37	-38.7	5
1952-05-25	VIFK	L 0-4	36.2	1306	1468	28.75%	22.25%	49.00%	-0.33	-50.7	5
1952-05-25	@ Pyrkiva Turku	W 4-0	36.2	1468	1306	49.00%	22.25%	28.75%	+0.33	+50.7	9
1952-05-25	Haka	W 4-2	43.4	1372	1293	59.07%	22.14%	18.79%	+0.44	+14.5	7
1952-05-25	@ VPS	L 2-4	43.4	1293	1372	18.79%	22.14%	59.07%	-0.44	-14.5	3
1952-05-28	TPS Turku	W 2-1	45.4	1384	1389	49.93%	22.35%	27.72%	+0.17	+13.0	7
1952-05-28	@ Turun Pallokerho	L 1-2	45.4	1389	1384	27.72%	22.35%	49.93%	-0.17	-13.0	8
1952-06-02	Pyrkiva Turku	D 1-1	52.7	1278	1255	53.19%	22.30%	24.51%	+0.26	-2.9	4
1952-06-02	@ Haka	D 1-1	52.7	1255	1278	24.51%	22.30%	53.19%	-0.26	+2.9	6
1952-06-02	VPS	W 2-0	47.5	1036	1386	11.73%	21.30%	66.97%	-0.93	+55.7	6
1952-06-02	@ Janteva Kotka	L 0-2	47.5	1386	1036	66.97%	21.30%	11.73%	+0.93	-55.7	7
1952-06-02	Kiffen 08	W 2-1	39.5	1329	1221	61.66%	22.03%	16.31%	+0.53	+8.3	7
1952-06-02	@ KuPS	L 1-2	39.5	1221	1329	16.31%	22.03%	61.66%	-0.53	-8.3	4
1952-06-02	KTP	L 0-4	40.7	1376	1466	38.48%	22.37%	39.15%	-0.10	-64.0	8
1952-06-02	@ TPS Turku	W 4-0	40.7	1466	1376	39.15%	22.37%	38.48%	+0.10	+64.0	10
1952-06-02	Turun Pallokerho	W 2-0	38.9	1519	1397	62.81%	21.96%	15.22%	+0.57	+15.6	11
1952-06-02	@ VIFK	L 0-2	38.9	1397	1519	15.22%	21.96%	62.81%	-0.57	-15.6	7
1952-06-07	KuPS	W 2-1	46.2	1258	1338	39.96%	22.38%	37.66%	-0.07	+16.6	8
1952-06-07	@ Pyrkiva Turku	L 1-2	46.2	1338	1258	37.66%	22.38%	39.96%	+0.07	-16.6	7
1952-06-08	VIFK	W 2-1	55.9	1213	1535	13.56%	21.50%	64.94%	-0.84	+27.0	6
1952-06-08	@ Kiffen 08	L 1-2	55.9	1535	1213	64.94%	21.50%	13.56%	+0.84	-27.0	11
1952-06-08	Haka	W 8-0	31.1	1530	1275	71.16%	21.15%	7.69%	+1.00	+30.3	12
1952-06-08	@ KTP	L 0-8	31.1	1275	1530	7.69%	21.15%	71.16%	-1.00	-30.3	4
1952-06-08	Janteva Kotka	D 1-1	52.9	1381	1091	72.76%	20.86%	6.38%	+1.11	-7.4	8
1952-06-08	@ Turun Pallokerho	D 1-1	52.9	1091	1381	6.38%	20.86%	72.76%	-1.11	+7.4	7
1952-06-08	TPS Turku	W 3-0	34.3	1331	1312	52.75%	22.31%	24.94%	+0.25	+34.6	9
1952-06-08	@ VPS	L 0-3	34.3	1312	1331	24.94%	22.31%	52.75%	-0.25	-34.6	8
1952-06-15	Kiffen 08	L 2-4	52.1	1245	1240	51.12%	22.33%	26.55%	+0.20	-33.2	4
1952-06-15	@ Haka	W 4-2	52.1	1240	1245	26.55%	22.33%	51.12%	-0.20	+33.1	8
1952-06-15	Turun Pallokerho	W 2-1	46.1	1321	1374	43.67%	22.39%	33.94%	+0.02	+15.3	9
1952-06-15	@ KuPS	L 1-2	46.1	1374	1321	33.94%	22.39%	43.67%	-0.02	-15.3	8
1952-06-17	KTP	D 0-0	50.8	1099	1560	6.62%	20.38%	73.00%	-1.28	+8.2	8
1952-06-17	@ Janteva Kotka	D 0-0	50.8	1560	1099	73.00%	20.38%	6.62%	+1.28	-8.2	13
1952-06-17	VPS	W 4-2	45.9	1508	1365	64.39%	21.86%	13.75%	+0.64	+11.0	13
1952-06-17	@ VIFK	L 2-4	45.9	1365	1508	13.75%	21.86%	64.39%	-0.64	-11.0	9
1952-06-18	Pyrkiva Turku	D 0-0	49.4	1277	1275	50.81%	22.34%	26.85%	+0.19	-2.6	9
1952-06-18	@ TPS Turku	D 0-0	49.4	1275	1277	26.85%	22.34%	50.81%	-0.19	+2.6	9
1952-08-09	VPS	L 3-4	55.4	1277	1354	40.30%	22.38%	37.31%	-0.06	-16.2	9
1952-08-09	@ Pyrkiva Turku	W 4-3	55.4	1354	1277	37.31%	22.38%	40.30%	+0.06	+16.2	11
1952-08-10	TPS Turku	W 2-1	41.1	1336	1274	57.36%	22.20%	20.45%	+0.38	+10.1	11
1952-08-10	@ KuPS	L 1-2	41.1	1274	1336	20.45%	22.20%	57.36%	-0.38	-10.1	9
1952-08-10	Kiffen 08	W 4-3	48.7	1359	1273	59.67%	22.12%	18.21%	+0.46	+8.5	10
1952-08-10	@ Turun Pallokerho	L 3-4	48.7	1273	1359	18.21%	22.12%	59.67%	-0.46	-8.5	8
1952-08-10	Haka	W 7-0	28.5	1519	1212	73.46%	20.72%	5.83%	+1.16	+20.4	15
1952-08-10	@ VIFK	L 0-7	28.5	1212	1519	5.83%	20.72%	73.46%	-1.16	-20.4	4
1952-08-13	Turun Pallokerho	W 5-0	34.4	1552	1367	67.29%	21.63%	11.08%	+0.77	+27.4	15
1952-08-13	@ KTP	L 0-5	34.4	1367	1552	11.08%	21.63%	67.29%	-0.77	-27.4	10
1952-08-13	Janteva Kotka	L 2-4	56.0	1264	1107	65.48%	21.78%	12.74%	+0.69	-42.3	9
1952-08-13	@ TPS Turku	W 4-2	56.0	1107	1264	12.74%	21.78%	65.48%	-0.69	+42.3	10
1952-08-17	VIFK	W 2-0	49.7	1149	1539	9.59%	21.00%	69.41%	-1.05	+57.8	12
1952-08-17	@ Janteva Kotka	L 0-2	49.7	1539	1149	69.41%	21.00%	9.59%	+1.05	-57.8	15
1952-08-17	KTP	L 1-3	47.2	1371	1579	23.45%	22.09%	54.45%	-0.48	-19.6	11
1952-08-17	@ VPS	W 3-1	47.2	1579	1371	54.45%	22.09%	23.45%	+0.48	+19.6	17
1952-08-17	KuPS	L 0-2	37.0	1191	1346	29.69%	22.26%	48.05%	-0.31	-27.4	4
1952-08-17	@ Haka	W 2-0	37.0	1346	1191	48.05%	22.26%	29.69%	+0.31	+27.4	13
1952-08-17	Pyrkiva Turku	L 3-4	58.0	1264	1261	50.91%	22.34%	26.76%	+0.20	-19.7	8
1952-08-17	@ Kiffen 08	W 4-3	58.0	1261	1264	26.76%	22.34%	50.91%	-0.20	+19.7	11
1952-08-22	Janteva Kotka	D 1-1	56.6	1599	1207	76.36%	19.92%	3.72%	+1.43	-8.2	18
1952-08-22	@ KTP	D 1-1	56.6	1207	1599	3.72%	19.92%	76.36%	-1.43	+8.2	13
1952-08-22	TPS Turku	W 4-0	31.1	1281	1222	57.03%	22.21%	20.76%	+0.37	+38.8	13
1952-08-22	@ Pyrkiva Turku	L 0-4	31.1	1222	1281	20.76%	22.21%	57.03%	-0.37	-38.8	9
1952-08-22	VIFK	L 1-4	44.5	1351	1482	32.88%	22.32%	44.80%	-0.23	-36.5	11
1952-08-22	@ VPS	W 4-1	44.5	1482	1351	44.80%	22.32%	32.88%	+0.23	+36.5	17
1952-08-24	Haka	L 2-8	46.3	1245	1164	59.20%	22.13%	18.67%	+0.44	-93.4	8
1952-08-24	@ Kiffen 08	W 8-2	46.3	1164	1245	18.67%	22.13%	59.20%	-0.44	+93.4	6
1952-08-24	KuPS	D 1-1	54.2	1340	1374	46.20%	22.38%	31.42%	+0.08	-1.4	11
1952-08-24	@ Turun Pallokerho	D 1-1	54.2	1374	1340	31.42%	22.38%	46.20%	-0.08	+1.4	14
1952-09-07	KTP	L 0-6	32.9	1257	1591	12.82%	21.42%	65.76%	-0.87	-36.9	6
1952-09-07	@ Haka	W 6-0	32.9	1591	1257	65.76%	21.42%	12.82%	+0.87	+36.9	20
1952-09-07	Turun Pallokerho	D 2-2	57.4	1215	1338	33.86%	22.33%	43.81%	-0.21	+0.7	14
1952-09-07	@ Janteva Kotka	D 2-2	57.4	1338	1215	43.81%	22.33%	33.86%	+0.21	-0.7	12
1952-09-07	Pyrkiva Turku	D 2-2	58.6	1375	1320	56.74%	22.22%	21.05%	+0.36	-2.7	15
1952-09-07	@ KuPS	D 2-2	58.6	1320	1375	21.05%	22.22%	56.74%	-0.36	+2.7	14
1952-09-07	VPS	W 3-2	52.6	1183	1315	32.78%	22.32%	44.90%	-0.23	+18.1	11
1952-09-07	@ TPS Turku	L 2-3	52.6	1315	1183	44.90%	22.32%	32.78%	+0.23	-18.1	11
1952-09-07	Kiffen 08	L 0-2	51.1	1518	1151	75.58%	20.17%	4.25%	+1.35	-63.3	17
1952-09-07	@ VIFK	W 2-0	51.1	1151	1518	4.25%	20.17%	75.58%	-1.35	+63.3	10
1952-09-13	VIFK	L 2-4	50.3	1338	1455	34.69%	22.34%	42.97%	-0.19	-24.1	12
1952-09-13	@ Turun Pallokerho	W 4-2	50.3	1455	1338	42.97%	22.34%	34.69%	+0.19	+24.1	19
1952-09-14	KuPS	D 2-2	57.6	1214	1373	29.32%	22.26%	48.42%	-0.32	+1.4	11
1952-09-14	@ Kiffen 08	D 2-2	57.6	1373	1214	48.42%	22.26%	29.32%	+0.32	-1.4	16
1952-09-14	TPS Turku	W 2-1	38.4	1627	1201	77.33%	19.56%	3.10%	+1.54	+1.7	22
1952-09-14	@ KTP	L 1-2	38.4	1201	1627	3.10%	19.56%	77.33%	-1.54	-1.7	11
1952-09-14	Haka	L 1-2	52.9	1322	1220	61.11%	22.05%	16.84%	+0.51	-25.4	14
1952-09-14	@ Pyrkiva Turku	W 2-1	52.9	1220	1322	16.84%	22.05%	61.11%	-0.51	+25.4	8
1952-09-14	Janteva Kotka	W 2-0	33.6	1296	1216	59.18%	22.13%	18.69%	+0.44	+18.7	13
1952-09-14	@ VPS	L 0-2	33.6	1216	1296	18.69%	22.13%	59.18%	-0.44	-18.7	14
1952-09-27	Turun Pallokerho	L 0-1	40.9	1200	1314	35.13%	22.35%	42.52%	-0.18	-16.7	11
1952-09-27	@ TPS Turku	W 1-0	40.9	1314	1200	42.52%	22.35%	35.13%	+0.18	+16.7	14
1952-09-28	VPS	W 4-1	41.8	1246	1315	41.41%	22.39%	36.21%	-0.03	+39.4	10
1952-09-28	@ Haka	L 1-4	41.8	1315	1246	36.21%	22.39%	41.41%	+0.03	-39.4	13
1952-09-28	Kiffen 08	W 4-1	39.3	1197	1216	48.19%	22.37%	29.45%	+0.13	+33.4	16
1952-09-28	@ Janteva Kotka	L 1-4	39.3	1216	1197	29.45%	22.37%	48.19%	-0.13	-33.4	11
1952-09-28	KTP	L 2-3	54.1	1371	1629	18.61%	21.87%	59.52%	-0.63	-8.8	16
1952-09-28	@ KuPS	W 3-2	54.1	1629	1371	59.52%	21.87%	18.61%	+0.63	+8.8	24
1952-09-28	Pyrkiva Turku	L 0-2	50.6	1479	1297	67.12%	21.64%	11.23%	+0.76	-56.0	19
1952-09-28	@ VIFK	W 2-0	50.6	1297	1479	11.23%	21.64%	67.12%	-0.76	+56.0	16
1952-10-11	Pyrkiva Turku	L 1-6	43.7	1330	1353	47.69%	22.37%	29.94%	+0.11	-77.9	14
1952-10-11	@ Turun Pallokerho	W 6-1	43.7	1353	1330	29.94%	22.37%	47.69%	-0.11	+77.9	18
1952-10-12	Janteva Kotka	W 2-0	34.3	1285	1231	56.61%	22.22%	21.17%	+0.36	+20.8	12
1952-10-12	@ Haka	L 0-2	34.3	1231	1285	21.17%	22.22%	56.61%	-0.36	-20.8	16
1952-10-12	TPS Turku	D 1-1	52.2	1182	1183	50.42%	22.34%	27.23%	+0.18	-2.3	12
1952-10-12	@ Kiffen 08	D 1-1	52.2	1183	1182	27.23%	22.34%	50.42%	-0.18	+2.3	12
1952-10-12	VIFK	D 1-1	64.6	1638	1423	69.11%	21.43%	9.46%	+0.87	-6.5	25
1952-10-12	@ KTP	D 1-1	64.6	1423	1638	9.46%	21.43%	69.11%	-0.87	+6.5	20
1952-10-12	KuPS	W 3-1	45.0	1276	1362	38.96%	22.38%	38.67%	-0.09	+29.3	15
1952-10-12	@ VPS	L 1-3	45.0	1362	1276	38.67%	22.38%	38.96%	+0.09	-29.3	16
1952-10-18	Haka	L 0-3	36.3	1185	1306	34.22%	22.34%	43.45%	-0.20	-44.7	12
1952-10-18	@ TPS Turku	W 3-0	36.3	1306	1185	43.45%	22.34%	34.22%	+0.20	+44.6	14
1952-10-19	Kiffen 08	L 0-1	56.3	1631	1180	78.00%	19.29%	2.71%	+1.62	-34.5	25
1952-10-19	@ KTP	W 1-0	56.3	1180	1631	2.71%	19.29%	78.00%	-1.62	+34.5	14
1952-10-19	VIFK	W 4-1	45.1	1333	1429	37.59%	22.37%	40.04%	-0.12	+42.6	18
1952-10-19	@ KuPS	L 1-4	45.1	1429	1333	40.04%	22.37%	37.59%	+0.12	-42.6	20
1952-10-19	Janteva Kotka	W 2-0	31.2	1431	1210	69.43%	21.39%	9.18%	+0.89	+9.8	20
1952-10-19	@ Pyrkiva Turku	L 0-2	31.2	1210	1431	9.18%	21.39%	69.43%	-0.89	-9.8	16
1952-10-19	Turun Pallokerho	D 0-0	49.5	1305	1252	56.43%	22.23%	21.35%	+0.35	-4.0	16
1952-10-19	@ VPS	D 0-0	49.5	1252	1305	21.35%	22.23%	56.43%	-0.35	+4.0	15
1952-10-26	KuPS	W 4-1	46.2	1200	1376	27.18%	22.21%	50.61%	-0.37	+51.9	18
1952-10-26	@ Janteva Kotka	L 1-4	46.2	1376	1200	50.61%	22.21%	27.18%	+0.37	-51.9	18
1952-10-26	VPS	W 1-0	42.0	1215	1301	38.99%	22.38%	38.63%	-0.09	+17.9	16
1952-10-26	@ Kiffen 08	L 0-1	42.0	1301	1215	38.63%	22.38%	38.99%	+0.09	-17.9	16
1952-10-26	KTP	D 2-2	68.1	1441	1597	29.54%	22.26%	48.20%	-0.31	+1.4	21
1952-10-26	@ Pyrkiva Turku	D 2-2	68.1	1597	1441	48.20%	22.26%	29.54%	+0.31	-1.4	26
1952-10-26	Haka	L 0-2	39.9	1256	1351	37.87%	22.37%	39.76%	-0.11	-33.3	15
1952-10-26	@ Turun Pallokerho	W 2-0	39.9	1351	1256	39.76%	22.37%	37.87%	+0.11	+33.3	16
1952-10-26	TPS Turku	W 4-0	27.1	1387	1141	70.74%	21.21%	8.05%	+0.97	+16.5	22
1952-10-26	@ VIFK	L 0-4	27.1	1141	1387	8.05%	21.21%	70.74%	-0.97	-16.5	12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1952-10-19	2.71%	Kiffen 08	1180	1	@ KTP	1631	0
2	1952-09-07	4.25%	Kiffen 08	1151	2	@ VIFK	1518	0
3	1952-08-17	9.59%	@ Janteva Kotka	1149	2	VIFK	1539	0
4	1952-05-01	10.37%	@ Janteva Kotka	994	3	TPS Turku	1369	1
5	1952-09-28	11.23%	Pyrkiva Turku	1297	2	@ VIFK	1479	0
6	1952-06-02	11.73%	@ Janteva Kotka	1036	2	VPS	1386	0
7	1952-08-13	12.74%	Janteva Kotka	1107	4	@ TPS Turku	1264	2
8	1952-06-08	13.56%	@ Kiffen 08	1213	2	VIFK	1535	1
9	1952-05-04	16.73%	VPS	1365	4	@ KTP	1468	1
10	1952-09-14	16.84%	Haka	1220	2	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1322	1
11	1952-08-24	18.67%	Haka	1164	8	@ Kiffen 08	1245	2
12	1952-06-15	26.55%	Kiffen 08	1240	4	@ Haka	1245	2
13	1952-08-17	26.76%	Pyrkiva Turku	1261	4	@ Kiffen 08	1264	3
14	1952-10-26	27.18%	@ Janteva Kotka	1200	4	KuPS	1376	1
15	1952-05-18	27.26%	TPS Turku	1340	2	@ Haka	1339	0
16	1952-05-01	27.95%	KTP	1424	5	@ Turun Pallokerho	1418	2
17	1952-05-11	29.65%	@ TPS Turku	1320	2	VIFK	1475	1
18	1952-10-11	29.94%	Pyrkiva Turku	1353	6	@ Turun Pallokerho	1330	1
19	1952-05-21	31.80%	Turun Pallokerho	1363	1	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1326	0
20	1952-09-07	32.78%	@ TPS Turku	1183	3	VPS	1315	2
21	1952-05-04	34.99%	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1218	8	Kiffen 08	1332	1
22	1952-04-27	37.30%	VIFK	1435	2	@ Haka	1358	0
23	1952-08-09	37.31%	VPS	1354	4	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1277	3
24	1952-10-19	37.59%	@ KuPS	1333	4	VIFK	1429	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1952-05-04	96.84	@ Pyrkiva Turku	8	1218	34.99%	Kiffen 08	1	1332	42.67%	22.35%
2	1952-08-24	93.41	Haka	8	1164	18.67%	@ Kiffen 08	2	1245	59.20%	22.13%
3	1952-10-11	77.91	Pyrkiva Turku	6	1353	29.94%	@ Turun Pallokerho	1	1330	47.69%	22.37%
4	1952-06-02	63.98	KTP	4	1466	39.15%	@ TPS Turku	0	1376	38.48%	22.37%
5	1952-09-07	63.27	Kiffen 08	2	1151	4.25%	@ VIFK	0	1518	75.58%	20.17%
6	1952-05-04	62.37	VPS	4	1365	16.73%	@ KTP	1	1468	61.22%	22.05%
7	1952-08-17	57.76	@ Janteva Kotka	2	1149	9.59%	VIFK	0	1539	69.41%	21.00%
8	1952-09-28	56.03	Pyrkiva Turku	2	1297	11.23%	@ VIFK	0	1479	67.12%	21.64%
9	1952-06-02	55.66	@ Janteva Kotka	2	1036	11.73%	VPS	0	1386	66.97%	21.30%
10	1952-10-26	51.89	@ Janteva Kotka	4	1200	27.18%	KuPS	1	1376	50.61%	22.21%
11	1952-05-25	50.72	VIFK	4	1468	49.00%	@ Pyrkiva Turku	0	1306	28.75%	22.25%
12	1952-05-01	49.36	@ Janteva Kotka	3	994	10.37%	TPS Turku	1	1369	68.51%	21.12%
13	1952-10-18	44.66	Haka	3	1306	43.45%	@ TPS Turku	0	1185	34.22%	22.34%
14	1952-05-01	44.27	KTP	5	1424	27.95%	@ Turun Pallokerho	2	1418	49.70%	22.35%
15	1952-10-19	42.60	@ KuPS	4	1333	37.59%	VIFK	1	1429	40.04%	22.37%
16	1952-08-13	42.28	Janteva Kotka	4	1107	12.74%	@ TPS Turku	2	1264	65.48%	21.78%
17	1952-05-18	42.26	TPS Turku	2	1340	27.26%	@ Haka	0	1339	50.39%	22.34%
18	1952-09-28	39.39	@ Haka	4	1246	41.41%	VPS	1	1315	36.21%	22.39%
19	1952-08-22	38.79	@ Pyrkiva Turku	4	1281	57.03%	TPS Turku	0	1222	20.76%	22.21%
20	1952-05-25	38.74	@ KTP	4	1427	57.06%	KuPS	0	1368	20.73%	22.21%
21	1952-09-07	36.88	KTP	6	1591	65.76%	@ Haka	0	1257	12.82%	21.42%
22	1952-08-22	36.47	VIFK	4	1482	44.80%	@ VPS	1	1351	32.88%	22.32%
23	1952-04-27	34.99	VIFK	2	1435	37.30%	@ Haka	0	1358	40.32%	22.38%
24	1952-06-08	34.61	@ VPS	3	1331	52.75%	TPS Turku	0	1312	24.94%	22.31%
25	1952-10-19	34.46	Kiffen 08	1	1180	2.71%	@ KTP	0	1631	78.00%	19.29%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1952-10-26	68.1	@ Pyrkiva Turku	2	1441	29.54%	KTP	2	1597	48.20%	22.26%
2	1952-10-12	64.6	@ KTP	1	1638	69.11%	VIFK	1	1423	9.46%	21.43%
3	1952-04-27	59.4	@ Kiffen 08	2	1332	39.20%	Turun Pallokerho	2	1417	38.42%	22.38%
4	1952-05-11	59.0	@ KTP	2	1406	60.19%	Pyrkiva Turku	2	1314	17.71%	22.09%
5	1952-09-07	58.6	@ KuPS	2	1375	56.74%	Pyrkiva Turku	2	1320	21.05%	22.22%
6	1952-05-22	58.4	@ VIFK	1	1472	55.98%	KTP	1	1424	21.78%	22.24%
7	1952-08-17	58.0	Pyrkiva Turku	4	1261	26.76%	@ Kiffen 08	3	1264	50.91%	22.34%
8	1952-09-14	57.6	@ Kiffen 08	2	1214	29.32%	KuPS	2	1373	48.42%	22.26%
9	1952-09-07	57.4	@ Janteva Kotka	2	1215	33.86%	Turun Pallokerho	2	1338	43.81%	22.33%
10	1952-08-22	56.6	@ KTP	1	1599	76.36%	Janteva Kotka	1	1207	3.72%	19.92%
11	1952-10-19	56.3	Kiffen 08	1	1180	2.71%	@ KTP	0	1631	78.00%	19.29%
12	1952-08-13	56.0	Janteva Kotka	4	1107	12.74%	@ TPS Turku	2	1264	65.48%	21.78%
13	1952-06-08	55.9	@ Kiffen 08	2	1213	13.56%	VIFK	1	1535	64.94%	21.50%
14	1952-08-09	55.4	VPS	4	1354	37.31%	@ Pyrkiva Turku	3	1277	40.30%	22.38%
15	1952-08-24	54.2	@ Turun Pallokerho	1	1340	46.20%	KuPS	1	1374	31.42%	22.38%
16	1952-09-28	54.1	KTP	3	1629	59.52%	@ KuPS	2	1371	18.61%	21.87%
17	1952-05-11	53.8	@ VPS	1	1428	67.75%	Kiffen 08	1	1236	10.67%	21.58%
18	1952-05-01	53.3	KTP	5	1424	27.95%	@ Turun Pallokerho	2	1418	49.70%	22.35%
19	1952-05-04	53.0	VPS	4	1365	16.73%	@ KTP	1	1468	61.22%	22.05%
20	1952-06-08	52.9	@ Turun Pallokerho	1	1381	72.76%	Janteva Kotka	1	1091	6.38%	20.86%
21	1952-09-14	52.9	Haka	2	1220	16.84%	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1	1322	61.11%	22.05%
22	1952-06-02	52.7	@ Haka	1	1278	53.19%	Pyrkiva Turku	1	1255	24.51%	22.30%
23	1952-09-07	52.6	@ TPS Turku	3	1183	32.78%	VPS	2	1315	44.90%	22.32%
24	1952-05-01	52.5	@ Janteva Kotka	3	994	10.37%	TPS Turku	1	1369	68.51%	21.12%
25	1952-05-22	52.4	@ Janteva Kotka	1	1038	18.53%	Haka	1	1297	59.60%	21.87%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1952-10-26	27.1	@ VIFK	4	1387	70.74%	TPS Turku	0	1141	8.05%	21.21%
2	1952-08-10	28.5	@ VIFK	7	1519	73.46%	Haka	0	1212	5.83%	20.72%
3	1952-05-04	29.3	@ VIFK	5	1470	77.34%	Janteva Kotka	1	1043	3.10%	19.56%
4	1952-06-08	31.1	@ KTP	8	1530	71.16%	Haka	0	1275	7.69%	21.15%
5	1952-08-22	31.1	@ Pyrkiva Turku	4	1281	57.03%	TPS Turku	0	1222	20.76%	22.21%
6	1952-10-19	31.2	@ Pyrkiva Turku	2	1431	69.43%	Janteva Kotka	0	1210	9.18%	21.39%
7	1952-09-07	32.9	KTP	6	1591	65.76%	@ Haka	0	1257	12.82%	21.42%
8	1952-05-25	33.3	@ Kiffen 08	1	1214	66.48%	Janteva Kotka	0	1042	11.81%	21.70%
9	1952-09-14	33.6	@ VPS	2	1296	59.18%	Janteva Kotka	0	1216	18.69%	22.13%
10	1952-05-25	34.2	@ KTP	4	1427	57.06%	KuPS	0	1368	20.73%	22.21%
11	1952-06-08	34.3	@ VPS	3	1331	52.75%	TPS Turku	0	1312	24.94%	22.31%
12	1952-10-12	34.3	@ Haka	2	1285	56.61%	Janteva Kotka	0	1231	21.17%	22.22%
13	1952-08-13	34.4	@ KTP	5	1552	67.29%	Turun Pallokerho	0	1367	11.08%	21.63%
14	1952-04-27	34.9	@ VPS	1	1357	63.57%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	1225	14.51%	21.92%
15	1952-05-25	36.2	VIFK	4	1468	49.00%	@ Pyrkiva Turku	0	1306	28.75%	22.25%
16	1952-05-18	36.3	@ VIFK	2	1455	61.10%	KuPS	0	1353	16.85%	22.05%
17	1952-10-18	36.3	Haka	3	1306	43.45%	@ TPS Turku	0	1185	34.22%	22.34%
18	1952-08-17	37.0	KuPS	2	1346	48.05%	@ Haka	0	1191	29.69%	22.26%
19	1952-09-14	38.4	@ KTP	2	1627	77.33%	TPS Turku	1	1201	3.10%	19.56%
20	1952-05-22	38.6	@ TPS Turku	2	1382	65.74%	Kiffen 08	1	1221	12.50%	21.76%
21	1952-06-02	38.9	@ VIFK	2	1519	62.81%	Turun Pallokerho	0	1397	15.22%	21.96%
22	1952-05-18	39.3	Pyrkiva Turku	2	1318	60.72%	@ Janteva Kotka	1	1047	17.48%	21.80%
23	1952-09-28	39.3	@ Janteva Kotka	4	1197	48.19%	Kiffen 08	1	1216	29.45%	22.37%
24	1952-06-02	39.5	@ KuPS	2	1329	61.66%	Kiffen 08	1	1221	16.31%	22.03%
25	1952-10-26	39.9	Haka	2	1351	39.76%	@ Turun Pallokerho	0	1256	37.87%	22.37%