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1953 Mestaruussarja Season

90 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

VIFK

24 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1947-48

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Janteva Kotka

6.00 points above expected

24 points · 18.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KTP

6.80 points below expected

15 points · 21.80 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 VIFK Champion 18 10 4 4 24 40 23 +17 21.11 +2.89
2 Janteva Kotka 18 11 2 5 24 30 20 +10 18.00 +6.00
3 KuPS 18 9 3 6 21 32 25 +7 19.54 +1.46
4 Haka 18 8 3 7 19 31 32 -1 19.28 -0.28
5 Pyrkiva Turku 18 8 2 8 18 38 29 +9 21.03 -3.03
6 HJK 18 6 5 7 17 28 22 +6 11.65 +5.35
7 Kiffen 08 18 6 4 8 16 28 28 0 17.76 -1.76
8 KTP 18 5 5 8 15 22 32 -10 21.80 -6.80
9 VPS 18 5 3 10 13 26 37 -11 17.28 -4.28
10 KaPa Kajaani 18 4 5 9 13 25 52 -27 12.55 +0.45

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Janteva Kotka 24 18.00 +6.00
2 HJK 17 11.65 +5.35
3 VIFK 24 21.11 +2.89
4 KuPS 21 19.54 +1.46
5 KaPa Kajaani 13 12.55 +0.45

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KTP 15 21.80 -6.80
2 VPS 13 17.28 -4.28
3 Pyrkiva Turku 18 21.03 -3.03
4 Kiffen 08 16 17.76 -1.76
5 Haka 19 19.28 -0.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KaPa Kajaani 4 Aug 9 – Sep 13 1 in 217
2 Janteva Kotka 5 Aug 2 – Sep 13 1 in 55
3 KuPS 3 Sep 13 – Sep 27 1 in 24
4 Haka 3 Jun 21 – Jul 26 1 in 23
5 VIFK 3 May 10 – May 17 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KTP 4 Aug 2 – Sep 6 1 in 148
2 Pyrkiva Turku 3 May 10 – May 17 1 in 26
3 VPS 3 Sep 6 – Sep 20 1 in 19
4 HJK 5 Aug 2 – Sep 13 1 in 17
5 Janteva Kotka 3 May 17 – Jun 14 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HJK 6 May 3 – Jun 14 1 in 204
2 Janteva Kotka 8 Jun 21 – Sep 13 1 in 27
3 KaPa Kajaani 4 Aug 9 – Sep 13 1 in 20
4 Haka 4 Jun 21 – Aug 2 1 in 11
5 KuPS 4 Sep 13 – Oct 11 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KTP 11 Jun 14 – Sep 27 1 in 1,656
2 KaPa Kajaani 10 May 3 – Aug 2 1 in 18
3 VPS 4 May 3 – May 17 1 in 9
4 Haka 3 May 3 – May 14 1 in 6
5 Pyrkiva Turku 3 May 10 – May 17 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Janteva Kotka 1287 24 +4 7 5.4 +1.6
VIFK 1351 24 +25 7 6.3 +0.7
KuPS 1273 21 +19 7 5.1 +1.9
Haka 1261 19 -6 5 5.3 -0.3
Pyrkiva Turku 1301 18 -12 4 5.8 -1.8
HJK 1157 17 +35 5 3.7 +1.3
Kiffen 08 1232 16 +2 4 4.4 -0.4
KTP 1278 15 +3 6 5.4 +0.6
VPS 1200 13 -23 3 4.9 -1.9
KaPa Kajaani 1107 13 -49 2 3.7 -1.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team HJK HAK JK KTP KK K0 KUP PT VIF VPS
HJK —
1-0-1
1.71
1-0-1
1.73
0-2-0
1.57
2-0-0
2.52
0-1-1
1.99
1-0-1
1.81
0-1-1
1.71
0-1-1
1.49
1-0-1
2.09
Haka
1-0-1
3.89
 —
0-0-2
2.90
1-1-0
2.43
1-0-1
3.93
2-0-0
3.03
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.68
1-1-0
2.52
0-1-1
3.13
Janteva Kotka
1-0-1
3.87
2-0-0
2.69
 —
1-0-1
2.23
1-1-0
3.74
2-0-0
2.99
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.44
0-1-1
2.41
2-0-0
2.93
KTP
0-2-0
4.03
0-1-1
3.16
1-0-1
3.35
 —
0-1-1
4.19
0-1-1
3.53
0-0-2
3.20
2-0-0
2.80
0-0-2
2.99
2-0-0
3.40
KaPa Kajaani
0-0-2
3.06
1-0-1
1.67
0-1-1
1.85
1-1-0
1.42
 —
1-0-1
1.95
0-1-1
1.80
0-0-2
1.71
0-1-1
1.61
1-1-0
2.18
Kiffen 08
1-1-0
3.60
0-0-2
2.55
0-0-2
2.59
1-1-0
2.06
1-0-1
3.64
 —
0-1-1
2.43
2-0-0
2.20
0-0-2
2.20
1-1-0
2.79
KuPS
1-0-1
3.78
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.88
2-0-0
2.38
1-1-0
3.79
1-1-0
3.15
 —
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
3.02
Pyrkiva Turku
1-1-0
3.89
1-0-1
2.90
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.78
2-0-0
3.88
0-0-2
3.39
1-1-0
2.98
 —
0-0-2
2.78
2-0-0
3.28
VIFK
1-1-0
4.11
0-1-1
3.06
1-1-0
3.17
2-0-0
2.59
1-1-0
3.99
2-0-0
3.38
1-0-1
3.13
2-0-0
2.80
 —
0-0-2
3.47
VPS
1-0-1
3.49
1-1-0
2.45
0-0-2
2.65
0-0-2
2.18
0-1-1
3.40
0-1-1
2.79
1-0-1
2.56
0-0-2
2.30
2-0-0
2.11
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.49 +5.0
Allowed 0.56 -3.2
Differential 0.71 +2.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%6.11%2.78%3.89%1.67%0.56%17.22%
16.11%13.33%9.44%3.33%2.78%2.78%37.78%
22.78%9.44%4.44%4.44%1.11%—22.22%
33.89%3.33%4.44%—1.11%—12.78%
41.67%2.78%1.11%1.11%——6.67%
5+0.56%2.78%————3.33%
Total17.22%37.78%22.22%12.78%6.67%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.67 +0.00
SD 1.37 1.37 2.11
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
15.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
25.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%33.33%16.67%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.22 +0.33
SD 1.54 1.22 2.03
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%———11.11%
15.56%11.11%——5.56%—22.22%
2—27.78%5.56%22.22%——55.56%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%44.44%22.22%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.78 -0.06
SD 0.96 1.06 1.43
CV 0.56 0.60 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
116.67%11.11%11.11%———38.89%
216.67%11.11%—11.11%——38.89%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%16.67%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.11 +0.56
SD 0.84 1.13 1.50
CV 0.50 1.02 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
1—11.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%44.44%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%27.78%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.78 -0.56
SD 0.94 1.52 1.82
CV 0.77 0.85 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———11.11%11.11%—22.22%
1—16.67%—5.56%5.56%16.67%44.44%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+———————
Total—33.33%16.67%16.67%16.67%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 2.89 -1.50
SD 1.24 1.94 2.75
CV 0.90 0.67 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
111.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.25 1.78
CV 0.83 0.80 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
1—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
2—11.11%————11.11%
35.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%55.56%27.78%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.39 +0.39
SD 1.40 1.09 2.12
CV 0.79 0.79 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
111.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
2———5.56%——5.56%
311.11%—5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.61 +0.50
SD 2.00 1.46 2.66
CV 0.95 0.91 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
15.56%22.22%16.67%———44.44%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4———11.11%——11.11%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total16.67%50.00%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.28 +0.94
SD 1.66 0.89 1.73
CV 0.75 0.70 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—11.11%5.56%—22.22%
15.56%5.56%22.22%—11.11%—44.44%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total11.11%16.67%44.44%11.11%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.06 -0.61
SD 1.38 1.21 2.20
CV 0.96 0.59 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
VIFK 1359 24 21.11 +2.89 84.0% 12 15 18 21 23 27 30
Pyrkiva Turku 1301 18 21.03 -3.03 19.0% 11 15 19 21 24 26 30
Janteva Kotka 1279 24 18.00 +6.00 95.0% 8 11 15 18 21 24 27
KTP 1278 15 21.80 -6.80 8.0% 12 14 19 22 25 27 31
KuPS 1273 21 19.54 +1.46 69.0% 11 13 17 19 22 25 28
Haka 1261 19 19.28 -0.28 51.0% 11 14 17 19 21 25 27
Kiffen 08 1232 16 17.76 -1.76 40.0% 9 12 15 18 20 23 27
VPS 1200 13 17.28 -4.28 13.0% 10 11 15 17 20 22 24
HJK 1157 17 11.65 +5.35 97.0% 4 6 9 12 14 16 19
KaPa Kajaani 1107 13 12.55 +0.45 68.0% 4 7 10 12 15 18 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.11%
Slight Edge
45.56%20.00%34.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 38.76 Elo pts.
293 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.40 goals
Neutral
-2+0.13+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.3
Wide Open
134510
Champion Preseason Odds
25%
VIFK, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.85 * Some Luck: 2.85 to 4.27 * Lucky: 4.27 to 5.69 * Wild Swing: 5.69 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.47 * Close: 1.47 to 2.21 * Off: 2.21 to 2.94 * Way Off: 2.94 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.90 points
Some Luck
03.569
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.20
Close
01.844
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
HJK
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.00%
KTP
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 72.39
1.06
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.41.71.92.5
Interquartile Edge
61%
Even
50%62.5%70%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Even
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Frequent
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Very Even
00.330.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.12
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.24
Some Carryover
00.210.460.591
Upset Rate
Expected
40%
Very Upset-Prone
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Very Shaky
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.25
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.22
Overconfident
01.002.00987
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.137
Well Within Noise
00.1650.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

VIFK 3
Janteva Kotka 1

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
VIFK25.00%19.00%17.00%12.00%4.00%11.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%—
Janteva Kotka8.00%6.00%16.00%12.00%7.00%13.00%11.00%10.00%12.00%5.00%
KuPS9.00%11.00%13.00%14.00%20.00%12.00%12.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%
Haka7.00%6.00%12.00%20.00%15.00%16.00%15.00%7.00%1.00%1.00%
Pyrkiva Turku19.00%22.00%14.00%12.00%13.00%10.00%2.00%6.00%2.00%—
HJK————1.00%4.00%9.00%14.00%29.00%43.00%
Kiffen 084.00%8.00%9.00%9.00%10.00%12.00%16.00%21.00%7.00%4.00%
KTP26.00%23.00%8.00%10.00%15.00%3.00%3.00%7.00%5.00%—
VPS2.00%4.00%10.00%11.00%10.00%14.00%17.00%18.00%10.00%4.00%
KaPa Kajaani—1.00%1.00%—5.00%5.00%8.00%9.00%30.00%41.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
VIFK 99.00% 1.00%
Haka 98.00% 2.00%
Pyrkiva Turku 98.00% 2.00%
KTP 95.00% 5.00%
KuPS 95.00% 5.00%
Kiffen 08 89.00% 11.00%
VPS 86.00% 14.00%
Janteva Kotka 83.00% 17.00%
KaPa Kajaani 29.00% 71.00%
HJK 28.00% 72.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1953-05-03 KuPS L 2-354.5 1281 1261 50.12% 20.86% 29.02%+0.20 -6.5 0
1953-05-03 @ Haka W 3-254.5 1261 1281 29.02% 20.86% 50.12%-0.20 +6.5 2
1953-05-03 Pyrkiva Turku L 1-635.5 1167 1302 29.23% 20.67% 50.09%-0.33 -17.0 0
1953-05-03 @ KaPa Kajaani W 6-135.5 1302 1167 50.09% 20.67% 29.23%+0.33 +17.0 2
1953-05-03 Janteva Kotka L 0-239.7 1231 1238 46.66% 20.94% 32.40%+0.11 -12.9 0
1953-05-03 @ Kiffen 08 W 2-039.7 1238 1231 32.40% 20.94% 46.66%-0.11 +12.9 2
1953-05-03 VPS W 2-140.3 1346 1249 58.98% 20.38% 20.64%+0.46 +3.3 2
1953-05-03 @ KTP L 1-240.3 1249 1346 20.64% 20.38% 58.98%-0.46 -3.3 0
1953-05-03 HJK D 1-153.5 1290 1087 68.30% 19.18% 12.51%+0.82 -2.0 1
1953-05-03 @ VIFK D 1-153.5 1087 1290 12.51% 19.18% 68.30%-0.82 +2.0 1
1953-05-10 KaPa Kajaani W 6-138.5 1089 1150 39.21% 20.96% 39.83%-0.07 +21.9 3
1953-05-10 @ HJK L 1-638.5 1150 1089 39.83% 20.96% 39.21%+0.07 -21.9 0
1953-05-10 VIFK L 2-352.2 1251 1288 42.47% 20.97% 36.56%+0.00 -5.7 2
1953-05-10 @ Janteva Kotka W 3-252.2 1288 1251 36.56% 20.97% 42.47%+0.00 +5.7 3
1953-05-10 Kiffen 08 W 3-031.3 1267 1218 53.69% 20.72% 25.59%+0.30 +11.5 4
1953-05-10 @ KuPS L 0-331.3 1218 1267 25.59% 20.72% 53.69%-0.30 -11.4 0
1953-05-10 KTP L 0-337.8 1319 1349 43.46% 20.97% 35.56%+0.03 -17.7 2
1953-05-10 @ Pyrkiva Turku W 3-037.8 1349 1319 35.56% 20.97% 43.46%-0.03 +17.7 4
1953-05-10 Haka D 2-258.8 1245 1274 43.65% 20.97% 35.38%+0.03 -0.2 1
1953-05-10 @ VPS D 2-258.8 1274 1245 35.38% 20.97% 43.65%-0.03 +0.2 1
1953-05-14 Janteva Kotka L 2-354.7 1274 1245 51.31% 20.82% 27.86%+0.23 -6.7 1
1953-05-14 @ Haka W 3-254.7 1245 1274 27.86% 20.82% 51.31%-0.23 +6.7 4
1953-05-14 KuPS D 1-153.1 1128 1279 27.34% 20.57% 52.09%-0.38 +0.8 1
1953-05-14 @ KaPa Kajaani D 1-153.1 1279 1128 52.09% 20.57% 27.34%+0.38 -0.8 5
1953-05-14 VPS W 4-034.0 1207 1245 42.29% 20.97% 36.74%+0.00 +20.2 2
1953-05-14 @ Kiffen 08 L 0-434.0 1245 1207 36.74% 20.97% 42.29%+0.00 -20.2 1
1953-05-14 HJK D 0-050.1 1367 1111 71.96% 18.38% 9.66%+1.01 -2.5 5
1953-05-14 @ KTP D 0-050.1 1111 1367 9.66% 18.38% 71.96%-1.01 +2.5 4
1953-05-14 Pyrkiva Turku W 4-352.9 1294 1301 46.52% 20.94% 32.54%+0.11 +4.5 5
1953-05-14 @ VIFK L 3-452.9 1301 1294 32.54% 20.94% 46.52%-0.11 -4.5 2
1953-05-17 Janteva Kotka W 2-148.6 1114 1252 28.92% 20.66% 50.43%-0.34 +6.9 6
1953-05-17 @ HJK L 1-248.6 1252 1114 50.43% 20.66% 28.92%+0.34 -6.9 4
1953-05-17 Haka L 1-252.1 1364 1268 58.91% 20.39% 20.70%+0.46 -8.0 5
1953-05-17 @ KTP W 2-152.1 1268 1364 20.70% 20.39% 58.91%-0.46 +8.0 3
1953-05-17 VIFK L 1-247.7 1278 1298 44.86% 20.96% 34.18%+0.06 -6.2 5
1953-05-17 @ KuPS W 2-147.7 1298 1278 34.18% 20.96% 44.86%-0.06 +6.2 7
1953-05-17 Kiffen 08 L 0-145.7 1297 1227 56.07% 20.59% 23.34%+0.37 -8.1 2
1953-05-17 @ Pyrkiva Turku W 1-045.7 1227 1297 23.34% 20.59% 56.07%-0.37 +8.1 4
1953-05-17 KaPa Kajaani D 2-258.6 1225 1128 58.94% 20.39% 20.68%+0.46 -1.0 2
1953-05-17 @ VPS D 2-258.6 1128 1225 20.68% 20.39% 58.94%-0.46 +1.0 2
1953-05-31 KaPa Kajaani W 3-135.8 1276 1129 63.72% 19.89% 16.39%+0.63 +4.6 5
1953-05-31 @ Haka L 1-335.8 1129 1276 16.39% 19.89% 63.72%-0.63 -4.6 2
1953-05-31 HJK D 2-258.7 1235 1121 60.72% 20.23% 19.06%+0.52 -1.0 5
1953-05-31 @ Kiffen 08 D 2-258.7 1121 1235 19.06% 20.23% 60.72%-0.52 +1.1 7
1953-05-31 Janteva Kotka W 2-139.9 1356 1245 60.45% 20.25% 19.30%+0.51 +3.1 7
1953-05-31 @ KTP L 1-239.9 1245 1356 19.30% 20.25% 60.45%-0.51 -3.1 4
1953-05-31 KuPS W 1-038.0 1289 1272 49.74% 20.87% 29.39%+0.19 +4.7 4
1953-05-31 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 0-138.0 1272 1289 29.39% 20.87% 49.74%-0.19 -4.7 5
1953-05-31 VIFK W 1-041.8 1224 1304 36.42% 20.92% 42.66%-0.14 +6.4 4
1953-05-31 @ VPS L 0-141.8 1304 1224 42.66% 20.92% 36.42%+0.14 -6.3 7
1953-06-14 Haka W 2-041.4 1122 1280 26.47% 20.51% 53.02%-0.41 +14.4 9
1953-06-14 @ HJK L 0-241.4 1280 1122 53.02% 20.51% 26.47%+0.41 -14.4 5
1953-06-14 KuPS L 2-352.6 1242 1267 44.11% 20.97% 34.92%+0.05 -5.8 4
1953-06-14 @ Janteva Kotka W 3-252.6 1267 1242 34.92% 20.97% 44.11%-0.05 +5.8 7
1953-06-14 KTP D 2-259.1 1125 1359 18.87% 19.77% 61.36%-0.67 +1.1 3
1953-06-14 @ KaPa Kajaani D 2-259.1 1359 1125 61.36% 19.77% 18.87%+0.67 -1.1 8
1953-06-14 VPS W 3-030.9 1293 1230 55.27% 20.64% 24.09%+0.35 +10.9 6
1953-06-14 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 0-330.9 1230 1293 24.09% 20.64% 55.27%-0.35 -10.9 4
1953-06-14 Kiffen 08 W 1-036.2 1298 1234 55.40% 20.63% 23.97%+0.35 +4.0 9
1953-06-14 @ VIFK L 0-136.2 1234 1298 23.97% 20.63% 55.40%-0.35 -4.0 5
1953-06-21 Pyrkiva Turku W 1-041.4 1236 1304 38.04% 20.95% 41.01%-0.10 +6.2 6
1953-06-21 @ Janteva Kotka L 0-141.4 1304 1236 41.01% 20.95% 38.04%+0.10 -6.1 6
1953-06-21 VIFK D 1-153.2 1126 1302 24.56% 20.37% 55.06%-0.47 +1.0 4
1953-06-21 @ KaPa Kajaani D 1-153.2 1302 1126 55.06% 20.37% 24.56%+0.47 -1.0 10
1953-06-21 Haka L 2-448.7 1230 1266 42.64% 20.97% 36.38%+0.01 -9.3 5
1953-06-21 @ Kiffen 08 W 4-248.7 1266 1230 36.38% 20.97% 42.64%-0.01 +9.3 7
1953-06-21 KTP W 3-145.1 1273 1358 35.69% 20.90% 43.40%-0.16 +10.5 9
1953-06-21 @ KuPS L 1-345.1 1358 1273 43.40% 20.90% 35.69%+0.16 -10.5 8
1953-06-21 HJK W 4-242.1 1220 1136 57.55% 20.49% 21.95%+0.42 +5.4 6
1953-06-21 @ VPS L 2-442.1 1136 1220 21.95% 20.49% 57.55%-0.42 -5.3 9
1953-06-26 VPS W 1-037.6 1242 1225 49.73% 20.87% 29.39%+0.19 +4.7 8
1953-06-26 @ Janteva Kotka L 0-137.6 1225 1242 29.39% 20.87% 49.73%-0.19 -4.7 6
1953-06-28 KaPa Kajaani W 4-135.0 1221 1127 58.63% 20.41% 20.96%+0.45 +8.1 7
1953-06-28 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-435.0 1127 1221 20.96% 20.41% 58.63%-0.45 -8.1 4
1953-06-28 HJK L 0-147.7 1283 1131 64.27% 19.82% 15.91%+0.65 -9.2 9
1953-06-28 @ KuPS W 1-047.7 1131 1283 15.91% 19.82% 64.27%-0.65 +9.2 11
1953-06-28 Haka L 1-249.3 1298 1275 50.48% 20.85% 28.66%+0.21 -6.9 6
1953-06-28 @ Pyrkiva Turku W 2-149.3 1275 1298 28.66% 20.85% 50.48%-0.21 +6.9 9
1953-06-28 KTP W 6-139.2 1301 1348 41.11% 20.97% 37.91%-0.03 +21.1 12
1953-06-28 @ VIFK L 1-639.2 1348 1301 37.91% 20.97% 41.11%+0.03 -21.1 8
1953-07-26 VIFK W 2-145.5 1282 1322 42.12% 20.97% 36.90%+0.00 +5.3 11
1953-07-26 @ Haka L 1-245.5 1322 1282 36.90% 20.97% 42.12%+0.00 -5.3 12
1953-07-26 Pyrkiva Turku D 1-153.1 1140 1291 27.33% 20.57% 52.11%-0.38 +0.8 12
1953-07-26 @ HJK D 1-153.1 1291 1140 52.11% 20.57% 27.33%+0.38 -0.8 7
1953-07-26 Janteva Kotka D 1-153.0 1119 1247 30.15% 20.72% 49.13%-0.30 +0.6 5
1953-07-26 @ KaPa Kajaani D 1-153.0 1247 1119 49.13% 20.72% 30.15%+0.30 -0.6 9
1953-07-26 Kiffen 08 D 1-153.6 1327 1229 59.07% 20.38% 20.55%+0.47 -1.3 9
1953-07-26 @ KTP D 1-153.6 1229 1327 20.55% 20.38% 59.07%-0.47 +1.3 8
1953-07-26 KuPS W 5-035.2 1220 1274 40.12% 20.97% 38.91%-0.05 +26.0 8
1953-07-26 @ VPS L 0-535.2 1274 1220 38.91% 20.97% 40.12%+0.05 -26.0 9
1953-08-02 KaPa Kajaani W 3-028.6 1246 1119 61.90% 20.11% 17.99%+0.57 +8.4 11
1953-08-02 @ Janteva Kotka L 0-328.6 1119 1246 17.99% 20.11% 61.90%-0.57 -8.4 5
1953-08-02 KTP W 1-042.6 1230 1325 34.35% 20.87% 44.78%-0.19 +6.6 10
1953-08-02 @ Kiffen 08 L 0-142.6 1325 1230 44.78% 20.87% 34.35%+0.19 -6.6 9
1953-08-02 VPS W 4-138.5 1248 1246 47.79% 20.92% 31.29%+0.14 +11.4 11
1953-08-02 @ KuPS L 1-438.5 1246 1248 31.29% 20.92% 47.79%-0.14 -11.4 8
1953-08-02 HJK W 1-033.3 1290 1141 64.01% 19.86% 16.13%+0.64 +2.8 9
1953-08-02 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 0-133.3 1141 1290 16.13% 19.86% 64.01%-0.64 -2.8 12
1953-08-02 Haka D 1-153.8 1317 1287 51.26% 20.83% 27.92%+0.23 -0.8 13
1953-08-02 @ VIFK D 1-153.8 1287 1317 27.92% 20.83% 51.26%-0.23 +0.8 12
1953-08-09 Pyrkiva Turku L 2-353.7 1288 1293 46.89% 20.94% 32.18%+0.12 -6.2 12
1953-08-09 @ Haka W 3-253.7 1293 1288 32.18% 20.94% 46.89%-0.12 +6.1 11
1953-08-09 KuPS L 1-340.4 1138 1260 30.92% 20.75% 48.32%-0.28 -8.0 12
1953-08-09 @ HJK W 3-140.4 1260 1138 48.32% 20.75% 30.92%+0.28 +8.0 13
1953-08-09 Kiffen 08 W 3-253.6 1111 1237 30.42% 20.73% 48.85%-0.30 +6.4 7
1953-08-09 @ KaPa Kajaani L 2-353.6 1237 1111 48.85% 20.73% 30.42%+0.30 -6.4 10
1953-08-09 VIFK L 0-240.9 1319 1316 47.92% 20.92% 31.16%+0.14 -13.2 9
1953-08-09 @ KTP W 2-040.9 1316 1319 31.16% 20.92% 47.92%-0.14 +13.2 15
1953-08-09 Janteva Kotka L 1-247.3 1235 1254 44.92% 20.96% 34.12%+0.07 -6.2 8
1953-08-09 @ VPS W 2-147.3 1254 1235 34.12% 20.96% 44.92%-0.07 +6.2 13
1953-08-21 Kiffen 08 L 1-243.6 1130 1230 33.69% 20.85% 45.46%-0.21 -5.0 12
1953-08-21 @ HJK W 2-143.6 1230 1130 45.46% 20.85% 33.69%+0.21 +5.0 12
1953-08-21 KTP W 3-143.0 1261 1306 41.40% 20.97% 37.63%-0.02 +9.4 15
1953-08-21 @ Janteva Kotka L 1-343.0 1306 1261 37.63% 20.97% 41.40%+0.02 -9.4 9
1953-08-21 VPS L 1-251.7 1329 1229 59.33% 20.35% 20.32%+0.48 -8.0 15
1953-08-21 @ VIFK W 2-151.7 1229 1329 20.32% 20.35% 59.33%-0.48 +8.0 10
1953-08-23 Haka W 4-144.9 1117 1282 25.79% 20.47% 53.74%-0.43 +17.9 9
1953-08-23 @ KaPa Kajaani L 1-444.9 1282 1117 53.74% 20.47% 25.79%+0.43 -17.9 12
1953-08-23 Pyrkiva Turku D 1-153.5 1268 1299 43.24% 20.97% 35.78%+0.02 -0.2 14
1953-08-23 @ KuPS D 1-153.5 1299 1268 35.78% 20.97% 43.24%-0.02 +0.2 12
1953-09-06 HJK W 1-033.5 1264 1125 63.07% 19.97% 16.96%+0.61 +2.9 14
1953-09-06 @ Haka L 0-133.5 1125 1264 16.96% 19.97% 63.07%-0.61 -2.9 12
1953-09-06 VIFK L 3-453.6 1235 1321 35.64% 20.90% 43.46%-0.16 -4.8 12
1953-09-06 @ Kiffen 08 W 4-353.6 1321 1235 43.46% 20.90% 35.64%+0.16 +4.8 17
1953-09-06 KaPa Kajaani L 1-448.1 1296 1135 64.98% 19.73% 15.29%+0.68 -21.5 9
1953-09-06 @ KTP W 4-148.1 1135 1296 15.29% 19.73% 64.98%-0.68 +21.5 11
1953-09-06 Janteva Kotka L 0-240.1 1267 1270 47.19% 20.93% 31.88%+0.12 -13.0 14
1953-09-06 @ KuPS W 2-040.1 1270 1267 31.88% 20.93% 47.19%-0.12 +13.0 17
1953-09-06 Pyrkiva Turku L 1-440.9 1237 1300 38.83% 20.96% 40.21%-0.08 -13.6 10
1953-09-06 @ VPS W 4-140.9 1300 1237 40.21% 20.96% 38.83%+0.08 +13.6 14
1953-09-13 KTP D 1-153.4 1267 1275 46.53% 20.94% 32.52%+0.11 -0.4 15
1953-09-13 @ Haka D 1-153.4 1275 1267 32.52% 20.94% 46.53%-0.11 +0.5 10
1953-09-13 HJK W 2-137.8 1283 1122 64.98% 19.73% 15.29%+0.68 +2.5 19
1953-09-13 @ Janteva Kotka L 1-237.8 1122 1283 15.29% 19.73% 64.98%-0.68 -2.5 12
1953-09-13 VPS W 2-145.8 1157 1223 38.36% 20.95% 40.69%-0.09 +5.8 13
1953-09-13 @ KaPa Kajaani L 1-245.8 1223 1157 40.69% 20.95% 38.36%+0.09 -5.8 10
1953-09-13 Pyrkiva Turku W 3-144.5 1230 1313 36.06% 20.91% 43.03%-0.15 +10.4 14
1953-09-13 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-344.5 1313 1230 43.03% 20.91% 36.06%+0.15 -10.4 14
1953-09-13 KuPS L 1-251.0 1326 1254 56.24% 20.58% 23.18%+0.38 -7.6 17
1953-09-13 @ VIFK W 2-151.0 1254 1326 23.18% 20.58% 56.24%-0.38 +7.6 16
1953-09-20 Kiffen 08 W 2-142.3 1267 1241 50.84% 20.84% 28.32%+0.22 +4.3 17
1953-09-20 @ Haka L 1-242.3 1241 1267 28.32% 20.84% 50.84%-0.22 -4.3 14
1953-09-20 VPS W 3-036.9 1120 1217 34.04% 20.86% 45.09%-0.20 +18.2 14
1953-09-20 @ HJK L 0-336.9 1217 1120 45.09% 20.86% 34.04%+0.20 -18.2 10
1953-09-20 KuPS L 1-248.8 1275 1262 49.25% 20.89% 29.86%+0.18 -6.8 10
1953-09-20 @ KTP W 2-148.8 1262 1275 29.86% 20.89% 49.25%-0.18 +6.8 18
1953-09-20 Janteva Kotka W 3-032.9 1303 1286 49.76% 20.87% 29.37%+0.19 +12.9 16
1953-09-20 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 0-332.9 1286 1303 29.37% 20.87% 49.76%-0.19 -12.9 19
1953-09-20 KaPa Kajaani W 3-028.0 1318 1162 64.54% 19.79% 15.68%+0.66 +7.4 19
1953-09-20 @ VIFK L 0-328.0 1162 1318 15.68% 19.79% 64.54%-0.66 -7.4 13
1953-09-27 KTP D 0-049.3 1138 1268 29.81% 20.70% 49.48%-0.31 +0.7 15
1953-09-27 @ HJK D 0-049.3 1268 1138 49.48% 20.70% 29.81%+0.31 -0.7 11
1953-09-27 Haka W 2-035.4 1273 1271 47.77% 20.92% 31.31%+0.14 +9.3 21
1953-09-27 @ Janteva Kotka L 0-235.4 1271 1273 31.31% 20.92% 47.77%-0.14 -9.3 17
1953-09-27 KaPa Kajaani W 4-028.4 1269 1155 60.65% 20.23% 19.12%+0.52 +11.6 20
1953-09-27 @ KuPS L 0-428.4 1155 1269 19.12% 20.23% 60.65%-0.52 -11.6 13
1953-09-27 VIFK L 1-542.4 1316 1326 46.21% 20.95% 32.84%+0.10 -20.3 16
1953-09-27 @ Pyrkiva Turku W 5-142.4 1326 1316 32.84% 20.95% 46.21%-0.10 +20.2 21
1953-09-27 Kiffen 08 D 1-153.0 1199 1237 42.44% 20.97% 36.58%+0.00 -0.2 11
1953-09-27 @ VPS D 1-153.0 1237 1199 36.58% 20.97% 42.44%+0.00 +0.2 15
1953-10-11 VPS L 2-355.7 1262 1199 55.25% 20.64% 24.11%+0.35 -7.1 17
1953-10-11 @ Haka W 3-255.7 1199 1262 24.11% 20.64% 55.25%-0.35 +7.1 13
1953-10-11 HJK L 0-437.2 1143 1139 48.19% 20.91% 30.90%+0.15 -25.2 13
1953-10-11 @ KaPa Kajaani W 4-037.2 1139 1143 30.90% 20.91% 48.19%-0.15 +25.2 17
1953-10-11 KuPS D 1-153.3 1237 1280 41.59% 20.97% 37.43%-0.02 -0.1 16
1953-10-11 @ Kiffen 08 D 1-153.3 1280 1237 37.43% 20.97% 41.59%+0.02 +0.1 21
1953-10-11 Pyrkiva Turku W 3-250.1 1268 1295 43.81% 20.97% 35.22%+0.04 +4.9 13
1953-10-11 @ KTP L 2-350.1 1295 1268 35.22% 20.97% 43.81%-0.04 -4.9 16
1953-10-11 Janteva Kotka D 1-154.0 1346 1282 55.37% 20.64% 23.99%+0.35 -1.0 22
1953-10-11 @ VIFK D 1-154.0 1282 1346 23.99% 20.64% 55.37%-0.35 +1.0 22
1953-10-18 VIFK L 1-338.4 1164 1345 24.02% 20.33% 55.65%-0.49 -6.4 17
1953-10-18 @ HJK W 3-138.4 1345 1164 55.65% 20.33% 24.02%+0.49 +6.4 24
1953-10-18 Kiffen 08 W 1-036.7 1283 1237 53.36% 20.74% 25.90%+0.29 +4.2 24
1953-10-18 @ Janteva Kotka L 0-136.7 1237 1283 25.90% 20.74% 53.36%-0.29 -4.2 16
1953-10-18 Haka L 1-249.2 1280 1254 50.86% 20.84% 28.30%+0.22 -7.0 21
1953-10-18 @ KuPS W 2-149.2 1254 1280 28.30% 20.84% 50.86%-0.22 +7.0 19
1953-10-18 KaPa Kajaani W 7-130.4 1290 1118 65.92% 19.59% 14.49%+0.72 +10.8 18
1953-10-18 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 1-730.4 1118 1290 14.49% 19.59% 65.92%-0.72 -10.8 13
1953-10-18 KTP L 1-245.3 1206 1273 38.32% 20.95% 40.73%-0.09 -5.5 13
1953-10-18 @ VPS W 2-145.3 1273 1206 40.73% 20.95% 38.32%+0.09 +5.5 15

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1953-11-01 Janteva Kotka W 3-141.4 1351 1287 48.33% 20.84% 30.82%+0.22 +8.0 1-0
1953-11-01 @ VIFK L 1-341.4 1287 1351 30.82% 20.84% 48.33%-0.22 -8.0 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1953-09-06 15.29% KaPa Kajaani 1135 4 @ KTP 1296 1
2 1953-06-28 15.91% HJK 1131 1 @ KuPS 1283 0
3 1953-08-21 20.32% VPS 1229 2 @ VIFK 1329 1
4 1953-05-17 20.70% Haka 1268 2 @ KTP 1364 1
5 1953-09-13 23.18% KuPS 1254 2 @ VIFK 1326 1
6 1953-05-17 23.34% Kiffen 08 1227 1 @ Pyrkiva Turku 1297 0
7 1953-10-11 24.11% VPS 1199 3 @ Haka 1262 2
8 1953-08-23 25.79% @ KaPa Kajaani 1117 4 Haka 1282 1
9 1953-06-14 26.47% @ HJK 1122 2 Haka 1280 0
10 1953-05-14 27.86% Janteva Kotka 1245 3 @ Haka 1274 2
11 1953-10-18 28.30% Haka 1254 2 @ KuPS 1280 1
12 1953-06-28 28.66% Haka 1275 2 @ Pyrkiva Turku 1298 1
13 1953-05-17 28.92% @ HJK 1114 2 Janteva Kotka 1252 1
14 1953-05-03 29.02% KuPS 1261 3 @ Haka 1281 2
15 1953-09-20 29.86% KuPS 1262 2 @ KTP 1275 1
16 1953-08-09 30.42% @ KaPa Kajaani 1111 3 Kiffen 08 1237 2
17 1953-10-11 30.90% HJK 1139 4 @ KaPa Kajaani 1143 0
18 1953-08-09 31.16% VIFK 1316 2 @ KTP 1319 0
19 1953-09-06 31.88% Janteva Kotka 1270 2 @ KuPS 1267 0
20 1953-08-09 32.18% Pyrkiva Turku 1293 3 @ Haka 1288 2
21 1953-05-03 32.40% Janteva Kotka 1238 2 @ Kiffen 08 1231 0
22 1953-09-27 32.84% VIFK 1326 5 @ Pyrkiva Turku 1316 1
23 1953-09-20 34.04% @ HJK 1120 3 VPS 1217 0
24 1953-08-09 34.12% Janteva Kotka 1254 2 @ VPS 1235 1
25 1953-05-17 34.18% VIFK 1298 2 @ KuPS 1278 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1953-07-26 26.01 @ VPS 5 1220 40.12% KuPS 0 1274 38.91% 20.97%
2 1953-10-11 25.20 HJK 4 1139 30.90% @ KaPa Kajaani 0 1143 48.19% 20.91%
3 1953-05-10 21.94 @ HJK 6 1089 39.21% KaPa Kajaani 1 1150 39.83% 20.96%
4 1953-09-06 21.49 KaPa Kajaani 4 1135 15.29% @ KTP 1 1296 64.98% 19.73%
5 1953-06-28 21.10 @ VIFK 6 1301 41.11% KTP 1 1348 37.91% 20.97%
6 1953-09-27 20.26 VIFK 5 1326 32.84% @ Pyrkiva Turku 1 1316 46.21% 20.95%
7 1953-05-14 20.16 @ Kiffen 08 4 1207 42.29% VPS 0 1245 36.74% 20.97%
8 1953-09-20 18.21 @ HJK 3 1120 34.04% VPS 0 1217 45.09% 20.86%
9 1953-08-23 17.90 @ KaPa Kajaani 4 1117 25.79% Haka 1 1282 53.74% 20.47%
10 1953-05-10 17.67 KTP 3 1349 35.56% @ Pyrkiva Turku 0 1319 43.46% 20.97%
11 1953-05-03 17.04 Pyrkiva Turku 6 1302 50.09% @ KaPa Kajaani 1 1167 29.23% 20.67%
12 1953-06-14 14.43 @ HJK 2 1122 26.47% Haka 0 1280 53.02% 20.51%
13 1953-09-06 13.60 Pyrkiva Turku 4 1300 40.21% @ VPS 1 1237 38.83% 20.96%
14 1953-08-09 13.22 VIFK 2 1316 31.16% @ KTP 0 1319 47.92% 20.92%
15 1953-09-06 13.05 Janteva Kotka 2 1270 31.88% @ KuPS 0 1267 47.19% 20.93%
16 1953-05-03 12.92 Janteva Kotka 2 1238 32.40% @ Kiffen 08 0 1231 46.66% 20.94%
17 1953-09-20 12.87 @ Pyrkiva Turku 3 1303 49.76% Janteva Kotka 0 1286 29.37% 20.87%
18 1953-09-27 11.59 @ KuPS 4 1269 60.65% KaPa Kajaani 0 1155 19.12% 20.23%
19 1953-05-10 11.45 @ KuPS 3 1267 53.69% Kiffen 08 0 1218 25.59% 20.72%
20 1953-08-02 11.43 @ KuPS 4 1248 47.79% VPS 1 1246 31.29% 20.92%
21 1953-06-14 10.88 @ Pyrkiva Turku 3 1293 55.27% VPS 0 1230 24.09% 20.64%
22 1953-10-18 10.83 @ Pyrkiva Turku 7 1290 65.92% KaPa Kajaani 1 1118 14.49% 19.59%
23 1953-06-21 10.52 @ KuPS 3 1273 35.69% KTP 1 1358 43.40% 20.90%
24 1953-09-13 10.44 @ Kiffen 08 3 1230 36.06% Pyrkiva Turku 1 1313 43.03% 20.91%
25 1953-08-21 9.38 @ Janteva Kotka 3 1261 41.40% KTP 1 1306 37.63% 20.97%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1953-06-14 59.1 @ KaPa Kajaani 2 1125 18.87% KTP 2 1359 61.36% 19.77%
2 1953-05-10 58.8 @ VPS 2 1245 43.65% Haka 2 1274 35.38% 20.97%
3 1953-05-31 58.7 @ Kiffen 08 2 1235 60.72% HJK 2 1121 19.06% 20.23%
4 1953-05-17 58.6 @ VPS 2 1225 58.94% KaPa Kajaani 2 1128 20.68% 20.39%
5 1953-10-11 55.7 VPS 3 1199 24.11% @ Haka 2 1262 55.25% 20.64%
6 1953-05-14 54.7 Janteva Kotka 3 1245 27.86% @ Haka 2 1274 51.31% 20.82%
7 1953-05-03 54.5 KuPS 3 1261 29.02% @ Haka 2 1281 50.12% 20.86%
8 1953-10-11 54.0 @ VIFK 1 1346 55.37% Janteva Kotka 1 1282 23.99% 20.64%
9 1953-08-02 53.8 @ VIFK 1 1317 51.26% Haka 1 1287 27.92% 20.83%
10 1953-08-09 53.7 Pyrkiva Turku 3 1293 32.18% @ Haka 2 1288 46.89% 20.94%
11 1953-07-26 53.6 @ KTP 1 1327 59.07% Kiffen 08 1 1229 20.55% 20.38%
12 1953-08-09 53.6 @ KaPa Kajaani 3 1111 30.42% Kiffen 08 2 1237 48.85% 20.73%
13 1953-09-06 53.6 VIFK 4 1321 43.46% @ Kiffen 08 3 1235 35.64% 20.90%
14 1953-05-03 53.5 @ VIFK 1 1290 68.30% HJK 1 1087 12.51% 19.18%
15 1953-08-23 53.5 @ KuPS 1 1268 43.24% Pyrkiva Turku 1 1299 35.78% 20.97%
16 1953-09-13 53.4 @ Haka 1 1267 46.53% KTP 1 1275 32.52% 20.94%
17 1953-10-11 53.3 @ Kiffen 08 1 1237 41.59% KuPS 1 1280 37.43% 20.97%
18 1953-06-21 53.2 @ KaPa Kajaani 1 1126 24.56% VIFK 1 1302 55.06% 20.37%
19 1953-05-14 53.1 @ KaPa Kajaani 1 1128 27.34% KuPS 1 1279 52.09% 20.57%
20 1953-07-26 53.1 @ HJK 1 1140 27.33% Pyrkiva Turku 1 1291 52.11% 20.57%
21 1953-07-26 53.0 @ KaPa Kajaani 1 1119 30.15% Janteva Kotka 1 1247 49.13% 20.72%
22 1953-09-27 53.0 @ VPS 1 1199 42.44% Kiffen 08 1 1237 36.58% 20.97%
23 1953-05-14 52.9 @ VIFK 4 1294 46.52% Pyrkiva Turku 3 1301 32.54% 20.94%
24 1953-06-14 52.6 KuPS 3 1267 34.92% @ Janteva Kotka 2 1242 44.11% 20.97%
25 1953-05-10 52.2 VIFK 3 1288 36.56% @ Janteva Kotka 2 1251 42.47% 20.97%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1953-09-20 28.0 @ VIFK 3 1318 64.54% KaPa Kajaani 0 1162 15.68% 19.79%
2 1953-09-27 28.4 @ KuPS 4 1269 60.65% KaPa Kajaani 0 1155 19.12% 20.23%
3 1953-08-02 28.6 @ Janteva Kotka 3 1246 61.90% KaPa Kajaani 0 1119 17.99% 20.11%
4 1953-10-18 30.4 @ Pyrkiva Turku 7 1290 65.92% KaPa Kajaani 1 1118 14.49% 19.59%
5 1953-06-14 30.9 @ Pyrkiva Turku 3 1293 55.27% VPS 0 1230 24.09% 20.64%
6 1953-05-10 31.3 @ KuPS 3 1267 53.69% Kiffen 08 0 1218 25.59% 20.72%
7 1953-09-20 32.9 @ Pyrkiva Turku 3 1303 49.76% Janteva Kotka 0 1286 29.37% 20.87%
8 1953-08-02 33.3 @ Pyrkiva Turku 1 1290 64.01% HJK 0 1141 16.13% 19.86%
9 1953-09-06 33.5 @ Haka 1 1264 63.07% HJK 0 1125 16.96% 19.97%
10 1953-05-14 34.0 @ Kiffen 08 4 1207 42.29% VPS 0 1245 36.74% 20.97%
11 1953-06-28 35.0 @ Kiffen 08 4 1221 58.63% KaPa Kajaani 1 1127 20.96% 20.41%
12 1953-07-26 35.2 @ VPS 5 1220 40.12% KuPS 0 1274 38.91% 20.97%
13 1953-09-27 35.4 @ Janteva Kotka 2 1273 47.77% Haka 0 1271 31.31% 20.92%
14 1953-05-03 35.5 Pyrkiva Turku 6 1302 50.09% @ KaPa Kajaani 1 1167 29.23% 20.67%
15 1953-05-31 35.8 @ Haka 3 1276 63.72% KaPa Kajaani 1 1129 16.39% 19.89%
16 1953-06-14 36.2 @ VIFK 1 1298 55.40% Kiffen 08 0 1234 23.97% 20.63%
17 1953-10-18 36.7 @ Janteva Kotka 1 1283 53.36% Kiffen 08 0 1237 25.90% 20.74%
18 1953-09-20 36.9 @ HJK 3 1120 34.04% VPS 0 1217 45.09% 20.86%
19 1953-10-11 37.2 HJK 4 1139 30.90% @ KaPa Kajaani 0 1143 48.19% 20.91%
20 1953-06-26 37.6 @ Janteva Kotka 1 1242 49.73% VPS 0 1225 29.39% 20.87%
21 1953-05-10 37.8 KTP 3 1349 35.56% @ Pyrkiva Turku 0 1319 43.46% 20.97%
22 1953-09-13 37.8 @ Janteva Kotka 2 1283 64.98% HJK 1 1122 15.29% 19.73%
23 1953-05-31 38.0 @ Pyrkiva Turku 1 1289 49.74% KuPS 0 1272 29.39% 20.87%
24 1953-10-18 38.4 VIFK 3 1345 55.65% @ HJK 1 1164 24.02% 20.33%
25 1953-05-10 38.5 @ HJK 6 1089 39.21% KaPa Kajaani 1 1150 39.83% 20.96%