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1954 Mestaruussarja Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Pyrkiva Turku

26 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

HJK

3.42 points above expected

22 points · 18.58 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Janteva Kotka

4.47 points below expected

11 points · 15.47 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Pyrkiva Turku Champion 18 10 6 2 26 42 20 +22 23.42 +2.58
2 KuPS 18 8 6 4 22 38 23 +15 20.76 +1.24
3 HJK 18 9 4 5 22 31 18 +13 18.58 +3.42
4 VIFK 18 8 4 6 20 28 26 +2 19.74 +0.26
5 TuTo 18 7 4 7 18 35 28 +7 15.05 +2.95
6 KTP 18 8 2 8 18 25 26 -1 19.07 -1.07
7 Kiffen 08 18 6 6 6 18 20 25 -5 18.28 -0.28
8 Haka 18 4 9 5 17 21 29 -8 18.74 -1.74
9 Janteva Kotka 18 3 5 10 11 20 41 -21 15.47 -4.47
10 KPT 18 2 4 12 8 19 43 -24 10.89 -2.89

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 HJK 22 18.58 +3.42
2 TuTo 18 15.05 +2.95
3 Pyrkiva Turku 26 23.42 +2.58
4 KuPS 22 20.76 +1.24
5 VIFK 20 19.74 +0.26

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Janteva Kotka 11 15.47 -4.47
2 KPT 8 10.89 -2.89
3 Haka 17 18.74 -1.74
4 KTP 18 19.07 -1.07
5 Kiffen 08 18 18.28 -0.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 TuTo 5 Aug 22 – Sep 26 1 in 1,168
2 VIFK 4 Sep 12 – Oct 3 1 in 56
3 HJK 4 Jul 25 – Aug 17 1 in 28
4 KTP 3 Aug 8 – Aug 22 1 in 27
5 Pyrkiva Turku 3 May 27 – Jun 16 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 VIFK 4 Jun 16 – Aug 1 1 in 76
2 Janteva Kotka 3 May 23 – May 30 1 in 42
3 KPT 5 Sep 5 – Oct 3 1 in 12
4 Kiffen 08 2 May 2 – May 9 1 in 8
5 Pyrkiva Turku 1 Sep 5 – Sep 5 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Haka 10 May 16 – Aug 17 1 in 35
2 Pyrkiva Turku 13 May 2 – Aug 22 1 in 32
3 TuTo 5 Aug 22 – Sep 26 1 in 20
4 KuPS 8 Jun 16 – Sep 5 1 in 15
5 Kiffen 08 5 Jun 15 – Aug 8 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 VIFK 7 May 23 – Aug 1 1 in 92
2 Haka 8 Aug 1 – Sep 26 1 in 44
3 Janteva Kotka 10 May 23 – Aug 22 1 in 40
4 KPT 12 Jun 16 – Oct 3 1 in 8
5 KTP 2 Jul 25 – Aug 1 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Pyrkiva Turku 1400 26 -23 6 6.9 -0.9
HJK 1360 22 +54 7 5.9 +1.1
KuPS 1373 22 +58 6 5.9 +0.1
VIFK 1326 20 +31 8 5.2 +2.8
TuTo 1281 18 +96 8 4.9 +3.1
Kiffen 08 1199 18 +0 6 5.0 +1.0
KTP 1238 18 -33 2 4.9 -2.9
Haka 1199 17 -70 4 5.2 -1.2
Janteva Kotka 1060 11 -74 3 3.7 -0.7
KPT 974 8 -39 0 2.5 -2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team HJK HAK JK KPT KTP K0 KUP PT TUT VIF
HJK —
0-2-0
2.71
1-1-0
3.31
1-0-1
4.05
2-0-0
2.47
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.05
2-0-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.38
Haka
0-2-0
2.71
 —
0-1-1
3.03
2-0-0
3.97
1-0-1
2.63
0-2-0
2.80
0-1-1
2.51
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
3.26
1-1-0
2.35
Janteva Kotka
0-1-1
2.13
1-1-0
2.40
 —
1-1-0
3.64
0-1-1
2.15
0-1-1
2.37
0-0-2
1.90
1-0-1
1.27
0-0-2
2.93
0-0-2
2.13
KPT
1-0-1
1.41
0-0-2
1.47
0-1-1
1.80
 —
0-0-2
1.52
1-0-1
1.54
0-0-2
1.30
0-1-1
1.00
0-1-1
2.21
0-1-1
1.22
KTP
0-0-2
2.94
1-0-1
2.78
1-1-0
3.27
2-0-0
3.93
 —
0-1-1
2.97
1-0-1
2.36
0-0-2
2.10
2-0-0
3.26
1-0-1
2.39
Kiffen 08
1-0-1
2.69
0-2-0
2.61
1-1-0
3.05
1-0-1
3.91
1-1-0
2.44
 —
0-1-1
2.51
0-1-1
1.74
1-0-1
3.53
1-0-1
2.43
KuPS
1-0-1
2.89
1-1-0
2.91
2-0-0
3.52
2-0-0
4.15
1-0-1
3.06
1-1-0
2.91
 —
0-2-0
2.43
0-1-1
3.21
0-1-1
2.64
Pyrkiva Turku
1-1-0
3.37
1-1-0
3.18
1-0-1
4.18
1-1-0
4.51
2-0-0
3.33
1-1-0
3.68
0-2-0
2.99
 —
2-0-0
3.97
1-0-1
3.31
TuTo
0-0-2
2.37
1-1-0
2.16
2-0-0
2.53
1-1-0
3.21
0-0-2
2.17
1-0-1
1.89
1-1-0
2.21
0-0-2
1.48
 —
1-1-0
1.87
VIFK
1-0-1
3.04
0-1-1
3.06
2-0-0
3.28
1-1-0
4.26
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.99
1-1-0
2.77
1-0-1
2.11
0-1-1
3.56
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.65 +5.1
Allowed 0.91 -6.2
Differential 0.93 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.00%5.00%1.11%3.33%1.67%27.22%
15.00%10.00%6.67%5.00%2.78%0.56%30.00%
25.00%6.67%5.56%1.67%2.22%0.56%21.67%
31.11%5.00%1.67%1.11%—0.56%9.44%
43.33%2.78%2.22%———8.33%
5+1.67%0.56%0.56%0.56%——3.33%
Total27.22%30.00%21.67%9.44%8.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.55 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.22
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
116.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%33.33%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.00 +0.72
SD 1.64 1.03 1.93
CV 0.95 1.03 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%——5.56%5.56%—33.33%
15.56%16.67%—11.11%—5.56%38.89%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
3———————
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%27.78%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.61 -0.44
SD 1.25 1.85 2.33
CV 1.07 1.15 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%11.11%44.44%
1—5.56%16.67%5.56%——27.78%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%33.33%5.56%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.28 -1.17
SD 1.32 2.08 2.53
CV 1.19 0.91 —
Max 4 8 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%—11.11%—33.33%
1—5.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%—33.33%
2—5.56%11.11%—11.11%—27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%22.22%11.11%33.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 2.39 -1.33
SD 0.94 1.38 1.64
CV 0.89 0.58 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
111.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
211.11%11.11%—11.11%——33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%16.67%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.44 -0.06
SD 1.09 1.34 1.86
CV 0.79 0.93 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
111.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%——38.89%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%16.67%33.33%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.39 -0.28
SD 1.13 1.24 1.60
CV 1.02 0.90 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%——5.56%22.22%
15.56%16.67%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
416.67%—5.56%———22.22%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%27.78%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.28 +0.83
SD 2.11 1.49 2.96
CV 1.00 1.16 —
Max 8 5 +8
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
1—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
216.67%16.67%16.67%—5.56%—55.56%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total38.89%27.78%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.11 +1.22
SD 1.78 1.18 2.07
CV 0.76 1.06 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
1—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
25.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+5.56%——5.56%——11.11%
Total16.67%38.89%22.22%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.56 +0.39
SD 1.70 1.15 2.20
CV 0.87 0.74 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
1—11.11%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
211.11%5.56%———5.56%22.22%
3—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%22.22%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.44 +0.11
SD 1.15 1.50 1.75
CV 0.74 1.04 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Pyrkiva Turku 1400 26 23.42 +2.58 81.0% 13 17 21 24 26 29 31
KuPS 1373 22 20.76 +1.24 63.0% 10 13 19 20 23 26 27
HJK 1360 22 18.58 +3.42 89.0% 11 13 17 19 21 24 25
VIFK 1326 20 19.74 +0.26 57.0% 11 13 18 20 22 25 27
TuTo 1281 18 15.05 +2.95 85.0% 6 9 13 15 17 20 24
KTP 1238 18 19.07 -1.07 43.0% 11 14 17 19 21 24 27
Haka 1199 17 18.74 -1.74 33.0% 10 13 17 19 21 23 26
Kiffen 08 1199 18 18.28 -0.28 56.0% 10 12 16 18 21 24 27
Janteva Kotka 1060 11 15.47 -4.47 9.0% 9 10 14 15 17 20 23
KPT 974 8 10.89 -2.89 22.0% 4 5 9 11 13 17 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.11%
Strong Edge
46.67%27.78%25.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge
199 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
074.47500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.48 goals
Neutral
-2+0.37+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Top-Heavy
134510
Champion Preseason Odds
50%
Pyrkiva Turku, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Runaway
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.67 * Some Luck: 2.67 to 4.01 * Lucky: 4.01 to 5.35 * Wild Swing: 5.35 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.41 * Close: 1.41 to 2.12 * Off: 2.12 to 2.82 * Way Off: 2.82 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.47 points
As Expected
03.348
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Pinpoint
01.764
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
89.00%
HJK
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
9.00%
Janteva Kotka
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 138.70
1.46
Moderate Separation
0.951.41.71.92.5
Interquartile Edge
71%
Clear Edge
50%62.5%70%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
92%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Some Drama
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Occasional
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Lopsided
00.330.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.60
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.42
Some Carryover
00.210.460.591
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Solid Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
1.00
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.91
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.050
Well Within Noise
00.1750.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Pyrkiva Turku50.00%24.00%12.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%3.00%—1.00%
KuPS19.00%23.00%13.00%16.00%10.00%9.00%4.00%2.00%3.00%1.00%
HJK6.00%9.00%16.00%14.00%14.00%10.00%20.00%5.00%5.00%1.00%
VIFK11.00%14.00%11.00%18.00%16.00%12.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%—
TuTo—1.00%4.00%7.00%8.00%13.00%13.00%21.00%22.00%11.00%
KTP5.00%6.00%21.00%15.00%10.00%13.00%14.00%11.00%5.00%—
Kiffen 086.00%9.00%9.00%10.00%14.00%9.00%17.00%16.00%7.00%3.00%
Haka3.00%11.00%11.00%10.00%19.00%20.00%8.00%9.00%7.00%2.00%
Janteva Kotka—3.00%3.00%4.00%4.00%10.00%15.00%22.00%24.00%15.00%
KPT————3.00%3.00%3.00%5.00%20.00%66.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Pyrkiva Turku 99.00% 1.00%
KuPS 96.00% 4.00%
KTP 95.00% 5.00%
HJK 94.00% 6.00%
VIFK 93.00% 7.00%
Haka 91.00% 9.00%
Kiffen 08 90.00% 10.00%
TuTo 67.00% 33.00%
Janteva Kotka 61.00% 39.00%
KPT 14.00% 86.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1954-05-02 KTP W 1-040.2 1245 1288 44.50% 29.42% 26.07%+0.16 +11.0 2
1954-05-02 @ HJK L 0-140.2 1288 1245 26.07% 29.42% 44.50%-0.16 -11.0 0
1954-05-02 Haka W 3-141.0 1287 1281 50.17% 29.21% 20.62%+0.40 +15.0 2
1954-05-02 @ Janteva Kotka L 1-341.0 1281 1287 20.62% 29.21% 50.17%-0.40 -15.0 0
1954-05-02 Pyrkiva Turku D 0-047.6 1286 1299 48.04% 29.32% 22.64%+0.31 -2.2 1
1954-05-02 @ KuPS D 0-047.6 1299 1286 22.64% 29.32% 48.04%-0.31 +2.2 1
1954-05-02 KPT D 1-150.8 1093 1044 54.45% 28.87% 16.67%+0.62 -3.0 1
1954-05-02 @ TuTo D 1-150.8 1044 1093 16.67% 28.87% 54.45%-0.62 +3.1 1
1954-05-02 Kiffen 08 W 3-139.9 1317 1270 54.21% 28.90% 16.89%+0.61 +12.8 2
1954-05-02 @ VIFK L 1-339.9 1270 1317 16.89% 28.90% 54.21%-0.61 -12.8 0
1954-05-09 KuPS L 1-348.7 1258 1284 46.55% 29.37% 24.07%+0.24 -27.8 0
1954-05-09 @ Kiffen 08 W 3-148.7 1284 1258 24.07% 29.37% 46.55%-0.24 +27.8 3
1954-05-09 HJK W 3-148.4 1047 1256 23.11% 28.77% 48.13%-0.67 +28.4 3
1954-05-09 @ KPT L 1-348.4 1256 1047 48.13% 28.77% 23.11%+0.67 -28.4 2
1954-05-09 TuTo W 2-031.0 1277 1090 64.80% 26.93% 8.27%+1.31 +7.9 2
1954-05-09 @ KTP L 0-231.0 1090 1277 8.27% 26.93% 64.80%-1.31 -7.9 1
1954-05-09 Haka W 7-134.9 1301 1266 53.14% 29.00% 17.87%+0.55 +35.5 3
1954-05-09 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 1-734.9 1266 1301 17.87% 29.00% 53.14%-0.55 -35.5 0
1954-05-09 Janteva Kotka W 2-035.8 1329 1302 52.36% 29.06% 18.58%+0.51 +16.0 4
1954-05-09 @ VIFK L 0-235.8 1302 1329 18.58% 29.06% 52.36%-0.51 -16.0 2
1954-05-16 KTP W 4-035.0 1230 1285 43.10% 29.45% 27.45%+0.10 +40.9 2
1954-05-16 @ Haka L 0-435.0 1285 1230 27.45% 29.45% 43.10%-0.10 -40.9 2
1954-05-16 Pyrkiva Turku D 0-047.4 1227 1337 35.66% 29.42% 34.93%-0.17 -0.1 3
1954-05-16 @ HJK D 0-047.4 1337 1227 34.93% 29.42% 35.66%+0.17 +0.1 4
1954-05-16 KPT W 3-135.6 1286 1076 66.18% 26.48% 7.34%+1.43 +6.0 4
1954-05-16 @ Janteva Kotka L 1-335.6 1076 1286 7.34% 26.48% 66.18%-1.43 -6.0 3
1954-05-16 VIFK L 0-244.2 1311 1345 45.57% 29.40% 25.03%+0.20 -31.5 3
1954-05-16 @ KuPS W 2-044.2 1345 1311 25.03% 29.40% 45.57%-0.20 +31.5 6
1954-05-16 Kiffen 08 L 0-238.3 1082 1230 30.38% 29.25% 40.37%-0.37 -23.2 1
1954-05-16 @ TuTo W 2-038.3 1230 1082 40.37% 29.25% 30.38%+0.37 +23.2 2
1954-05-23 KuPS D 0-047.4 1271 1280 48.57% 29.29% 22.13%+0.33 -2.3 3
1954-05-23 @ Haka D 0-047.4 1280 1271 22.13% 29.29% 48.57%-0.33 +2.3 4
1954-05-23 VIFK W 1-044.9 1227 1377 30.12% 29.24% 40.64%-0.38 +15.2 5
1954-05-23 @ HJK L 0-144.9 1377 1227 40.64% 29.24% 30.12%+0.38 -15.2 6
1954-05-23 TuTo L 0-545.6 1292 1059 67.43% 26.02% 6.55%+1.55 -106.1 4
1954-05-23 @ Janteva Kotka W 5-045.6 1059 1292 6.55% 26.02% 67.43%-1.55 +106.1 3
1954-05-23 KTP L 0-139.9 1070 1244 27.07% 29.08% 43.85%-0.50 -11.3 3
1954-05-23 @ KPT W 1-039.9 1244 1070 43.85% 29.08% 27.07%+0.50 +11.3 4
1954-05-23 Kiffen 08 D 2-256.7 1337 1253 57.53% 28.50% 13.97%+0.79 -2.7 5
1954-05-23 @ Pyrkiva Turku D 2-256.7 1253 1337 13.97% 28.50% 57.53%-0.79 +2.7 3
1954-05-27 Janteva Kotka W 1-036.3 1256 1186 56.33% 28.66% 15.01%+0.72 +7.1 5
1954-05-27 @ Kiffen 08 L 0-136.3 1186 1256 15.01% 28.66% 56.33%-0.72 -7.1 4
1954-05-27 Pyrkiva Turku L 0-241.9 1255 1334 39.82% 29.46% 30.71%-0.02 -28.2 4
1954-05-27 @ KTP W 2-041.9 1334 1255 30.71% 29.46% 39.82%+0.02 +28.2 7
1954-05-27 HJK W 1-037.4 1282 1243 53.58% 28.96% 17.46%+0.57 +8.1 6
1954-05-27 @ KuPS L 0-137.4 1243 1282 17.46% 28.96% 53.58%-0.57 -8.1 5
1954-05-27 Haka D 1-150.8 1165 1269 36.40% 29.43% 34.17%-0.15 -0.2 4
1954-05-27 @ TuTo D 1-150.8 1269 1165 34.17% 29.43% 36.40%+0.15 +0.2 4
1954-05-27 KPT D 0-048.5 1362 1058 70.88% 24.48% 4.64%+1.90 -6.6 7
1954-05-27 @ VIFK D 0-048.5 1058 1362 4.64% 24.48% 70.88%-1.90 +6.6 4
1954-05-30 HJK D 2-256.1 1269 1234 53.12% 29.00% 17.88%+0.55 -2.1 5
1954-05-30 @ Haka D 2-256.1 1234 1269 17.88% 29.00% 53.12%-0.55 +2.1 6
1954-05-30 Kiffen 08 W 2-150.4 1065 1263 24.28% 28.87% 46.85%-0.62 +16.0 6
1954-05-30 @ KPT L 1-250.4 1263 1065 46.85% 28.87% 24.28%+0.62 -16.0 5
1954-05-30 KuPS W 4-141.0 1227 1290 41.88% 29.46% 28.66%+0.05 +27.2 6
1954-05-30 @ KTP L 1-441.0 1290 1227 28.66% 29.46% 41.88%-0.05 -27.3 6
1954-05-30 Janteva Kotka W 2-138.8 1362 1179 64.59% 26.99% 8.42%+1.29 +4.0 9
1954-05-30 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 1-238.8 1179 1362 8.42% 26.99% 64.59%-1.29 -4.0 4
1954-05-30 TuTo D 1-151.9 1355 1165 65.01% 26.87% 8.13%+1.33 -5.0 8
1954-05-30 @ VIFK D 1-151.9 1165 1355 8.13% 26.87% 65.01%-1.33 +5.0 5
1954-06-15 HJK W 1-038.2 1247 1237 50.61% 29.18% 20.21%+0.43 +9.1 7
1954-06-15 @ Kiffen 08 L 0-138.2 1237 1247 20.21% 29.18% 50.61%-0.43 -9.1 6
1954-06-16 VIFK W 2-146.9 1267 1350 39.28% 29.46% 31.26%-0.04 +11.8 7
1954-06-16 @ Haka L 1-246.9 1350 1267 31.26% 29.46% 39.28%+0.04 -11.8 8
1954-06-16 Janteva Kotka D 1-151.1 1254 1175 57.13% 28.56% 14.31%+0.77 -3.5 7
1954-06-16 @ KTP D 1-151.1 1175 1254 14.31% 28.56% 57.13%-0.77 +3.5 5
1954-06-16 KPT W 4-028.2 1263 1081 64.51% 27.02% 8.48%+1.29 +15.3 8
1954-06-16 @ KuPS L 0-428.2 1081 1263 8.48% 27.02% 64.51%-1.29 -15.3 6
1954-06-16 TuTo W 2-138.6 1366 1170 65.36% 26.75% 7.88%+1.36 +3.8 11
1954-06-16 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 1-238.6 1170 1366 7.88% 26.75% 65.36%-1.36 -3.8 5
1954-06-20 HJK D 0-046.9 1179 1227 43.75% 29.44% 26.81%+0.13 -1.4 6
1954-06-20 @ Janteva Kotka D 0-046.9 1227 1179 26.81% 29.44% 43.75%-0.13 +1.4 7
1954-06-20 Haka D 0-047.3 1256 1279 46.88% 29.36% 23.76%+0.26 -2.0 8
1954-06-20 @ Kiffen 08 D 0-047.3 1279 1256 23.76% 29.36% 46.88%-0.26 +2.0 8
1954-06-20 Pyrkiva Turku D 2-256.4 1066 1370 14.58% 27.48% 57.94%-1.15 +2.7 7
1954-06-20 @ KPT D 2-256.4 1370 1066 57.94% 27.48% 14.58%+1.15 -2.7 12
1954-06-20 KuPS D 3-359.9 1166 1278 35.26% 29.41% 35.33%-0.19 +0.0 6
1954-06-20 @ TuTo D 3-359.9 1278 1166 35.33% 29.41% 35.26%+0.19 -0.0 9
1954-06-20 KTP L 0-149.7 1338 1250 57.89% 28.45% 13.66%+0.82 -20.8 8
1954-06-20 @ VIFK W 1-049.7 1250 1338 13.66% 28.45% 57.89%-0.82 +20.8 9
1954-07-25 KPT W 4-133.3 1281 1068 66.30% 26.44% 7.26%+1.44 +8.5 10
1954-07-25 @ Haka L 1-433.3 1068 1281 7.26% 26.44% 66.30%-1.44 -8.5 7
1954-07-25 TuTo W 4-242.8 1229 1166 55.72% 28.73% 15.54%+0.69 +10.7 9
1954-07-25 @ HJK L 2-442.8 1166 1229 15.54% 28.73% 55.72%-0.69 -10.7 6
1954-07-25 Kiffen 08 D 0-047.4 1271 1254 51.35% 29.13% 19.51%+0.46 -2.8 10
1954-07-25 @ KTP D 0-047.4 1254 1271 19.51% 29.13% 51.35%-0.46 +2.8 9
1954-07-25 Janteva Kotka W 4-030.1 1278 1177 58.93% 28.28% 12.78%+0.88 +22.2 11
1954-07-25 @ KuPS L 0-430.1 1177 1278 12.78% 28.28% 58.93%-0.88 -22.2 6
1954-07-25 VIFK W 6-239.0 1367 1318 54.54% 28.86% 16.60%+0.62 +19.6 14
1954-07-25 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 2-639.0 1318 1367 16.60% 28.86% 54.54%-0.62 -19.6 8
1954-08-01 Janteva Kotka D 0-047.5 1289 1155 61.42% 27.81% 10.77%+1.05 -4.8 11
1954-08-01 @ Haka D 0-047.5 1155 1289 10.77% 27.81% 61.42%-1.05 +4.8 7
1954-08-01 VIFK W 2-144.9 1257 1298 44.70% 29.42% 25.88%+0.17 +10.3 11
1954-08-01 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-244.9 1298 1257 25.88% 29.42% 44.70%-0.17 -10.3 8
1954-08-01 TuTo L 1-443.2 1060 1156 37.58% 29.45% 32.98%-0.11 -33.1 7
1954-08-01 @ KPT W 4-143.2 1156 1060 32.98% 29.45% 37.58%+0.11 +33.1 8
1954-08-01 HJK L 1-448.0 1268 1240 52.52% 29.05% 18.43%+0.52 -43.7 10
1954-08-01 @ KTP W 4-148.0 1240 1268 18.43% 29.05% 52.52%-0.52 +43.7 11
1954-08-01 KuPS D 1-152.6 1387 1300 57.76% 28.47% 13.77%+0.81 -3.6 15
1954-08-01 @ Pyrkiva Turku D 1-152.6 1300 1387 13.77% 28.47% 57.76%-0.81 +3.6 12
1954-08-08 Pyrkiva Turku D 2-257.1 1285 1383 37.14% 29.44% 33.41%-0.12 -0.2 12
1954-08-08 @ Haka D 2-257.1 1383 1285 33.41% 29.44% 37.14%+0.12 +0.2 16
1954-08-08 KPT W 2-137.1 1283 1027 68.63% 25.53% 5.84%+1.66 +2.8 13
1954-08-08 @ HJK L 1-237.1 1027 1283 5.84% 25.53% 68.63%-1.66 -2.8 7
1954-08-08 VIFK L 1-246.6 1160 1288 33.02% 29.35% 37.63%-0.27 -12.3 7
1954-08-08 @ Janteva Kotka W 2-146.6 1288 1160 37.63% 29.35% 33.02%+0.27 +12.3 10
1954-08-08 Kiffen 08 D 1-151.5 1304 1267 53.34% 28.98% 17.68%+0.56 -2.8 13
1954-08-08 @ KuPS D 1-151.5 1267 1304 17.68% 28.98% 53.34%-0.56 +2.8 12
1954-08-08 KTP L 1-250.2 1189 1225 45.34% 29.41% 25.25%+0.19 -15.7 8
1954-08-08 @ TuTo W 2-150.2 1225 1189 25.25% 29.41% 45.34%-0.19 +15.7 12
1954-08-17 Kiffen 08 W 4-032.8 1286 1270 51.24% 29.14% 19.61%+0.46 +31.7 15
1954-08-17 @ HJK L 0-432.8 1270 1286 19.61% 29.14% 51.24%-0.46 -31.7 12
1954-08-17 KTP L 1-248.0 1147 1240 37.94% 29.45% 32.61%-0.09 -13.6 7
1954-08-17 @ Janteva Kotka W 2-148.0 1240 1147 32.61% 29.45% 37.94%+0.09 +13.6 14
1954-08-17 KuPS L 2-442.8 1024 1301 16.64% 27.90% 55.46%-1.02 -11.1 7
1954-08-17 @ KPT W 4-242.8 1301 1024 55.46% 27.90% 16.64%+1.02 +11.1 15
1954-08-17 Pyrkiva Turku L 0-334.5 1173 1383 22.88% 28.75% 48.37%-0.68 -27.1 8
1954-08-17 @ TuTo W 3-034.5 1383 1173 48.37% 28.75% 22.88%+0.68 +27.1 18
1954-08-17 Haka D 0-047.6 1300 1284 51.17% 29.15% 19.68%+0.45 -2.8 11
1954-08-17 @ VIFK D 0-047.6 1284 1300 19.68% 29.15% 51.17%-0.45 +2.8 13
1954-08-22 TuTo L 0-246.5 1238 1146 58.24% 28.39% 13.36%+0.84 -39.4 12
1954-08-22 @ Kiffen 08 W 2-046.5 1146 1238 13.36% 28.39% 58.24%-0.84 +39.4 10
1954-08-22 Janteva Kotka D 2-255.6 1013 1134 34.01% 29.38% 36.61%-0.23 +0.1 8
1954-08-22 @ KPT D 2-255.6 1134 1013 36.61% 29.38% 34.01%+0.23 -0.1 8
1954-08-22 Haka W 3-142.2 1254 1287 45.67% 29.40% 24.93%+0.21 +17.4 16
1954-08-22 @ KTP L 1-342.2 1287 1254 24.93% 29.40% 45.67%-0.21 -17.4 13
1954-08-22 HJK W 2-035.1 1411 1318 58.27% 28.39% 13.34%+0.84 +12.2 20
1954-08-22 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 0-235.1 1318 1411 13.34% 28.39% 58.27%-0.84 -12.2 15
1954-08-22 KuPS D 1-151.6 1297 1312 47.81% 29.33% 22.87%+0.30 -1.9 12
1954-08-22 @ VIFK D 1-151.6 1312 1297 22.87% 29.33% 47.81%-0.30 +1.9 16
1954-09-04 Haka D 1-151.5 1306 1270 53.22% 28.99% 17.79%+0.55 -2.8 16
1954-09-04 @ HJK D 1-151.5 1270 1306 17.79% 28.99% 53.22%-0.55 +2.8 14
1954-09-05 Pyrkiva Turku W 4-255.3 1134 1423 15.70% 27.72% 56.58%-1.08 +29.4 10
1954-09-05 @ Janteva Kotka L 2-455.3 1423 1134 56.58% 27.72% 15.70%+1.08 -29.4 20
1954-09-05 KPT W 4-239.9 1199 1013 64.73% 26.95% 8.32%+1.31 +6.1 14
1954-09-05 @ Kiffen 08 L 2-439.9 1013 1199 8.32% 26.95% 64.73%-1.31 -6.1 8
1954-09-05 KTP W 2-142.3 1314 1271 53.91% 28.93% 17.17%+0.59 +7.5 18
1954-09-05 @ KuPS L 1-242.3 1271 1314 17.17% 28.93% 53.91%-0.59 -7.5 16
1954-09-05 VIFK W 4-142.8 1185 1295 35.54% 29.41% 35.05%-0.18 +31.5 12
1954-09-05 @ TuTo L 1-442.8 1295 1185 35.05% 29.41% 35.54%+0.18 -31.5 12
1954-09-12 TuTo L 0-343.9 1273 1217 55.12% 28.80% 16.08%+0.65 -54.3 14
1954-09-12 @ Haka W 3-043.9 1217 1273 16.08% 28.80% 55.12%-0.65 +54.3 14
1954-09-12 KuPS W 5-034.4 1303 1322 47.37% 29.34% 23.29%+0.28 +44.6 18
1954-09-12 @ HJK L 0-534.4 1322 1303 23.29% 29.34% 47.37%-0.28 -44.6 18
1954-09-12 Kiffen 08 D 0-046.9 1163 1205 44.64% 29.42% 25.94%+0.16 -1.6 11
1954-09-12 @ Janteva Kotka D 0-046.9 1205 1163 25.94% 29.42% 44.64%-0.16 +1.6 15
1954-09-12 VIFK L 1-339.3 1007 1264 18.36% 28.19% 53.45%-0.92 -13.5 8
1954-09-12 @ KPT W 3-139.3 1264 1007 53.45% 28.19% 18.36%+0.92 +13.5 14
1954-09-12 KTP W 2-140.7 1393 1264 61.06% 27.88% 11.05%+1.02 +5.2 22
1954-09-12 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 1-240.7 1264 1393 11.05% 27.88% 61.06%-1.02 -5.1 16
1954-09-19 Pyrkiva Turku L 0-237.4 1206 1398 24.92% 28.93% 46.15%-0.59 -19.9 15
1954-09-19 @ Kiffen 08 W 2-037.4 1398 1206 46.15% 28.93% 24.92%+0.59 +20.0 24
1954-09-19 KPT W 2-029.6 1259 994 69.06% 25.35% 5.59%+1.71 +5.3 18
1954-09-19 @ KTP L 0-229.6 994 1259 5.59% 25.35% 69.06%-1.71 -5.3 8
1954-09-19 Haka W 4-031.3 1277 1218 55.38% 28.77% 15.85%+0.67 +26.7 20
1954-09-19 @ KuPS L 0-431.3 1218 1277 15.85% 28.77% 55.38%-0.67 -26.7 14
1954-09-19 Janteva Kotka W 5-343.9 1271 1162 59.59% 28.17% 12.24%+0.92 +8.3 16
1954-09-19 @ TuTo L 3-543.9 1162 1271 12.24% 28.17% 59.59%-0.92 -8.3 11
1954-09-19 HJK W 3-251.1 1277 1347 41.02% 29.46% 29.52%+0.02 +10.8 16
1954-09-19 @ VIFK L 2-351.1 1347 1277 29.52% 29.46% 41.02%-0.02 -10.8 18
1954-09-26 Kiffen 08 D 1-150.8 1192 1186 50.07% 29.21% 20.71%+0.40 -2.3 15
1954-09-26 @ Haka D 1-150.8 1186 1192 20.71% 29.21% 50.07%-0.40 +2.3 16
1954-09-26 Janteva Kotka W 3-136.3 1337 1153 64.60% 26.99% 8.41%+1.29 +6.9 20
1954-09-26 @ HJK L 1-336.3 1153 1337 8.41% 26.99% 64.60%-1.29 -6.9 11
1954-09-26 VIFK L 2-355.8 1264 1288 46.76% 29.36% 23.88%+0.25 -15.3 18
1954-09-26 @ KTP W 3-255.8 1288 1264 23.88% 29.36% 46.76%-0.25 +15.3 18
1954-09-26 TuTo L 1-252.8 1304 1279 52.10% 29.08% 18.82%+0.50 -17.7 20
1954-09-26 @ KuPS W 2-152.8 1279 1304 18.82% 29.08% 52.10%-0.50 +17.7 18
1954-09-26 KPT W 4-024.8 1418 988 76.17% 21.33% 2.50%+2.53 +4.1 26
1954-09-26 @ Pyrkiva Turku L 0-424.8 988 1418 2.50% 21.33% 76.17%-2.53 -4.1 8
1954-10-03 KuPS L 0-837.4 1146 1286 31.41% 29.30% 39.29%-0.33 -86.6 11
1954-10-03 @ Janteva Kotka W 8-037.4 1286 1146 39.29% 29.30% 31.41%+0.33 +86.6 22
1954-10-03 KTP W 3-249.9 1189 1249 42.35% 29.46% 28.20%+0.07 +10.4 18
1954-10-03 @ Kiffen 08 L 2-349.9 1249 1189 28.20% 29.46% 42.35%-0.07 -10.4 18
1954-10-03 Haka L 0-138.7 984 1189 23.45% 28.80% 47.75%-0.66 -10.1 8
1954-10-03 @ KPT W 1-038.7 1189 984 47.75% 28.80% 23.45%+0.66 +10.1 17
1954-10-03 HJK L 0-146.3 1297 1344 44.04% 29.43% 26.52%+0.14 -16.2 18
1954-10-03 @ TuTo W 1-046.3 1344 1297 26.52% 29.43% 44.04%-0.14 +16.2 22
1954-10-03 Pyrkiva Turku W 3-147.3 1303 1423 34.24% 29.39% 36.37%-0.22 +22.8 20
1954-10-03 @ VIFK L 1-347.3 1423 1303 36.37% 29.39% 34.24%+0.22 -22.8 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1954-05-23 6.55% TuTo 1059 5 @ Janteva Kotka 1292 0
2 1954-08-22 13.36% TuTo 1146 2 @ Kiffen 08 1238 0
3 1954-06-20 13.66% KTP 1250 1 @ VIFK 1338 0
4 1954-09-05 15.70% @ Janteva Kotka 1134 4 Pyrkiva Turku 1423 2
5 1954-09-12 16.08% TuTo 1217 3 @ Haka 1273 0
6 1954-08-01 18.43% HJK 1240 4 @ KTP 1268 1
7 1954-09-26 18.82% TuTo 1279 2 @ KuPS 1304 1
8 1954-05-09 23.11% @ KPT 1047 3 HJK 1256 1
9 1954-09-26 23.88% VIFK 1288 3 @ KTP 1264 2
10 1954-05-09 24.07% KuPS 1284 3 @ Kiffen 08 1258 1
11 1954-05-30 24.28% @ KPT 1065 2 Kiffen 08 1263 1
12 1954-05-16 25.03% VIFK 1345 2 @ KuPS 1311 0
13 1954-08-08 25.25% KTP 1225 2 @ TuTo 1189 1
14 1954-10-03 26.52% HJK 1344 1 @ TuTo 1297 0
15 1954-05-23 30.12% @ HJK 1227 1 VIFK 1377 0
16 1954-05-27 30.71% Pyrkiva Turku 1334 2 @ KTP 1255 0
17 1954-08-17 32.61% KTP 1240 2 @ Janteva Kotka 1147 1
18 1954-08-01 32.98% TuTo 1156 4 @ KPT 1060 1
19 1954-10-03 34.24% @ VIFK 1303 3 Pyrkiva Turku 1423 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1954-05-23 106.14 TuTo 5 1059 6.55% @ Janteva Kotka 0 1292 67.43% 26.02%
2 1954-10-03 86.63 KuPS 8 1286 39.29% @ Janteva Kotka 0 1146 31.41% 29.30%
3 1954-09-12 54.28 TuTo 3 1217 16.08% @ Haka 0 1273 55.12% 28.80%
4 1954-09-12 44.62 @ HJK 5 1303 47.37% KuPS 0 1322 23.29% 29.34%
5 1954-08-01 43.74 HJK 4 1240 18.43% @ KTP 1 1268 52.52% 29.05%
6 1954-05-16 40.91 @ Haka 4 1230 43.10% KTP 0 1285 27.45% 29.45%
7 1954-08-22 39.43 TuTo 2 1146 13.36% @ Kiffen 08 0 1238 58.24% 28.39%
8 1954-05-09 35.55 @ Pyrkiva Turku 7 1301 53.14% Haka 1 1266 17.87% 29.00%
9 1954-08-01 33.08 TuTo 4 1156 32.98% @ KPT 1 1060 37.58% 29.45%
10 1954-08-17 31.71 @ HJK 4 1286 51.24% Kiffen 08 0 1270 19.61% 29.14%
11 1954-05-16 31.47 VIFK 2 1345 25.03% @ KuPS 0 1311 45.57% 29.40%
12 1954-09-05 31.46 @ TuTo 4 1185 35.54% VIFK 1 1295 35.05% 29.41%
13 1954-09-05 29.39 @ Janteva Kotka 4 1134 15.70% Pyrkiva Turku 2 1423 56.58% 27.72%
14 1954-05-09 28.42 @ KPT 3 1047 23.11% HJK 1 1256 48.13% 28.77%
15 1954-05-27 28.23 Pyrkiva Turku 2 1334 30.71% @ KTP 0 1255 39.82% 29.46%
16 1954-05-09 27.76 KuPS 3 1284 24.07% @ Kiffen 08 1 1258 46.55% 29.37%
17 1954-05-30 27.26 @ KTP 4 1227 41.88% KuPS 1 1290 28.66% 29.46%
18 1954-08-17 27.11 Pyrkiva Turku 3 1383 48.37% @ TuTo 0 1173 22.88% 28.75%
19 1954-09-19 26.70 @ KuPS 4 1277 55.38% Haka 0 1218 15.85% 28.77%
20 1954-05-16 23.15 Kiffen 08 2 1230 40.37% @ TuTo 0 1082 30.38% 29.25%
21 1954-10-03 22.83 @ VIFK 3 1303 34.24% Pyrkiva Turku 1 1423 36.37% 29.39%
22 1954-07-25 22.25 @ KuPS 4 1278 58.93% Janteva Kotka 0 1177 12.78% 28.28%
23 1954-06-20 20.79 KTP 1 1250 13.66% @ VIFK 0 1338 57.89% 28.45%
24 1954-09-19 19.95 Pyrkiva Turku 2 1398 46.15% @ Kiffen 08 0 1206 24.92% 28.93%
25 1954-07-25 19.61 @ Pyrkiva Turku 6 1367 54.54% VIFK 2 1318 16.60% 28.86%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1954-06-20 59.9 @ TuTo 3 1166 35.26% KuPS 3 1278 35.33% 29.41%
2 1954-08-08 57.1 @ Haka 2 1285 37.14% Pyrkiva Turku 2 1383 33.41% 29.44%
3 1954-05-23 56.7 @ Pyrkiva Turku 2 1337 57.53% Kiffen 08 2 1253 13.97% 28.50%
4 1954-06-20 56.4 @ KPT 2 1066 14.58% Pyrkiva Turku 2 1370 57.94% 27.48%
5 1954-05-30 56.1 @ Haka 2 1269 53.12% HJK 2 1234 17.88% 29.00%
6 1954-09-26 55.8 VIFK 3 1288 23.88% @ KTP 2 1264 46.76% 29.36%
7 1954-08-22 55.6 @ KPT 2 1013 34.01% Janteva Kotka 2 1134 36.61% 29.38%
8 1954-09-05 55.3 @ Janteva Kotka 4 1134 15.70% Pyrkiva Turku 2 1423 56.58% 27.72%
9 1954-09-26 52.8 TuTo 2 1279 18.82% @ KuPS 1 1304 52.10% 29.08%
10 1954-08-01 52.6 @ Pyrkiva Turku 1 1387 57.76% KuPS 1 1300 13.77% 28.47%
11 1954-05-30 51.9 @ VIFK 1 1355 65.01% TuTo 1 1165 8.13% 26.87%
12 1954-08-22 51.6 @ VIFK 1 1297 47.81% KuPS 1 1312 22.87% 29.33%
13 1954-08-08 51.5 @ KuPS 1 1304 53.34% Kiffen 08 1 1267 17.68% 28.98%
14 1954-09-04 51.5 @ HJK 1 1306 53.22% Haka 1 1270 17.79% 28.99%
15 1954-06-16 51.1 @ KTP 1 1254 57.13% Janteva Kotka 1 1175 14.31% 28.56%
16 1954-09-19 51.1 @ VIFK 3 1277 41.02% HJK 2 1347 29.52% 29.46%
17 1954-05-02 50.8 @ TuTo 1 1093 54.45% KPT 1 1044 16.67% 28.87%
18 1954-05-27 50.8 @ TuTo 1 1165 36.40% Haka 1 1269 34.17% 29.43%
19 1954-09-26 50.8 @ Haka 1 1192 50.07% Kiffen 08 1 1186 20.71% 29.21%
20 1954-05-30 50.4 @ KPT 2 1065 24.28% Kiffen 08 1 1263 46.85% 28.87%
21 1954-08-08 50.2 KTP 2 1225 25.25% @ TuTo 1 1189 45.34% 29.41%
22 1954-10-03 49.9 @ Kiffen 08 3 1189 42.35% KTP 2 1249 28.20% 29.46%
23 1954-06-20 49.7 KTP 1 1250 13.66% @ VIFK 0 1338 57.89% 28.45%
24 1954-05-09 48.7 KuPS 3 1284 24.07% @ Kiffen 08 1 1258 46.55% 29.37%
25 1954-05-27 48.5 @ VIFK 0 1362 70.88% KPT 0 1058 4.64% 24.48%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1954-09-26 24.8 @ Pyrkiva Turku 4 1418 76.17% KPT 0 988 2.50% 21.33%
2 1954-06-16 28.2 @ KuPS 4 1263 64.51% KPT 0 1081 8.48% 27.02%
3 1954-09-19 29.6 @ KTP 2 1259 69.06% KPT 0 994 5.59% 25.35%
4 1954-07-25 30.1 @ KuPS 4 1278 58.93% Janteva Kotka 0 1177 12.78% 28.28%
5 1954-05-09 31.0 @ KTP 2 1277 64.80% TuTo 0 1090 8.27% 26.93%
6 1954-09-19 31.3 @ KuPS 4 1277 55.38% Haka 0 1218 15.85% 28.77%
7 1954-08-17 32.8 @ HJK 4 1286 51.24% Kiffen 08 0 1270 19.61% 29.14%
8 1954-07-25 33.3 @ Haka 4 1281 66.30% KPT 1 1068 7.26% 26.44%
9 1954-09-12 34.4 @ HJK 5 1303 47.37% KuPS 0 1322 23.29% 29.34%
10 1954-08-17 34.5 Pyrkiva Turku 3 1383 48.37% @ TuTo 0 1173 22.88% 28.75%
11 1954-05-09 34.9 @ Pyrkiva Turku 7 1301 53.14% Haka 1 1266 17.87% 29.00%
12 1954-05-16 35.0 @ Haka 4 1230 43.10% KTP 0 1285 27.45% 29.45%
13 1954-08-22 35.1 @ Pyrkiva Turku 2 1411 58.27% HJK 0 1318 13.34% 28.39%
14 1954-05-16 35.6 @ Janteva Kotka 3 1286 66.18% KPT 1 1076 7.34% 26.48%
15 1954-05-09 35.8 @ VIFK 2 1329 52.36% Janteva Kotka 0 1302 18.58% 29.06%
16 1954-05-27 36.3 @ Kiffen 08 1 1256 56.33% Janteva Kotka 0 1186 15.01% 28.66%
17 1954-09-26 36.3 @ HJK 3 1337 64.60% Janteva Kotka 1 1153 8.41% 26.99%
18 1954-08-08 37.1 @ HJK 2 1283 68.63% KPT 1 1027 5.84% 25.53%
19 1954-05-27 37.4 @ KuPS 1 1282 53.58% HJK 0 1243 17.46% 28.96%
20 1954-09-19 37.4 Pyrkiva Turku 2 1398 46.15% @ Kiffen 08 0 1206 24.92% 28.93%
21 1954-10-03 37.4 KuPS 8 1286 39.29% @ Janteva Kotka 0 1146 31.41% 29.30%
22 1954-06-15 38.2 @ Kiffen 08 1 1247 50.61% HJK 0 1237 20.21% 29.18%
23 1954-05-16 38.3 Kiffen 08 2 1230 40.37% @ TuTo 0 1082 30.38% 29.25%
24 1954-06-16 38.6 @ Pyrkiva Turku 2 1366 65.36% TuTo 1 1170 7.88% 26.75%
25 1954-10-03 38.7 Haka 1 1189 47.75% @ KPT 0 984 23.45% 28.80%