1955 Mestaruussarja Season

90 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Kiffen 08

25 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1916

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Haka

5.68 points above expected

23 points · 17.32 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

HJK

5.30 points below expected

15 points · 20.30 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Kiffen 08 Champion	18	9	7	2	25	36	19	+17	19.49	+5.51
2	Haka	18	10	3	5	23	41	27	+14	17.32	+5.68
3	VIFK	18	7	7	4	21	38	22	+16	19.54	+1.46
4	KuPS	18	7	6	5	20	38	21	+17	19.30	+0.70
5	VPS	18	7	5	6	19	28	24	+4	17.01	+1.99
6	KTP	18	5	7	6	17	32	24	+8	18.16	-1.16
7	HJK	18	5	5	8	15	35	35	0	20.30	-5.30
8	TuTo	18	6	3	9	15	26	36	-10	17.61	-2.61
9	Pyrkiva Turku	18	6	3	9	15	17	56	-39	16.98	-1.98
10	Kotkan Reipas	18	4	2	12	10	42	69	-27	14.29	-4.29

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Haka	23	17.32	+5.68
2	Kiffen 08	25	19.49	+5.51
3	VPS	19	17.01	+1.99
4	VIFK	21	19.54	+1.46
5	KuPS	20	19.30	+0.70

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	HJK	15	20.30	-5.30
2	Kotkan Reipas	10	14.29	-4.29
3	TuTo	15	17.61	-2.61
4	Pyrkiva Turku	15	16.98	-1.98
5	KTP	17	18.16	-1.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kiffen 08	6	May 8 – Jun 12	1 in 426
2	VPS	4	Sep 25 – Oct 16	1 in 54
3	TuTo	3	Sep 4 – Sep 25	1 in 30
4	KuPS	3	Jul 31 – Aug 21	1 in 22
5	Haka	3	May 22 – Jun 5	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	TuTo	4	Jul 24 – Aug 19	1 in 103
2	HJK	3	Sep 4 – Sep 25	1 in 29
3	KTP	3	May 22 – Jun 5	1 in 26
4	Kiffen 08	2	Oct 9 – Oct 16	1 in 15
5	KuPS	2	May 22 – May 30	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kiffen 08	16	May 8 – Oct 2	1 in 753
2	Haka	7	May 15 – Jun 26	1 in 34
3	KuPS	7	Jun 26 – Sep 18	1 in 15
4	VPS	5	Jun 22 – Aug 7	1 in 11
5	KTP	5	Jun 12 – Jul 30	1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	HJK	9	Jun 22 – Sep 25	1 in 81
2	KTP	6	May 22 – Jun 26	1 in 21
3	VPS	6	Jun 5 – Jul 31	1 in 12
4	TuTo	5	Jun 26 – Aug 19	1 in 11
5	KuPS	4	Jun 12 – Jul 24	1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Kiffen 08	1100	25	-2	5	5.7	-0.7
Haka	1087	23	+31	8	5.0	+3.0
VIFK	1109	21	-7	5	5.7	-0.7
KuPS	1125	20	+18	5	5.8	-0.8
VPS	1070	19	+22	9	4.9	+4.1
KTP	1080	17	-7	4	5.1	-1.1
TuTo	1041	15	-1	5	4.8	+0.2
HJK	1084	15	-3	4	5.1	-1.1
Pyrkiva Turku	981	15	-13	3	3.8	-0.8
Kotkan Reipas	977	10	-39	2	4.1	-2.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	HJK	HAK	KTP	K0	KR	KUP	PT	TUT	VIF	VPS
HJK	—	0-0-2 2.99	1-1-0 2.78	0-2-0 2.70	1-0-1 3.47	0-1-1 2.78	1-0-1 3.07	1-0-1 3.00	0-1-1 2.63	1-0-1 2.97
Haka	2-0-0 2.45	—	2-0-0 2.62	1-0-1 2.64	2-0-0 3.12	1-0-1 2.45	0-0-2 2.77	1-1-0 2.73	0-2-0 2.38	1-0-1 2.81
KTP	0-1-1 2.67	0-0-2 2.83	—	0-1-1 2.57	1-1-0 3.13	0-2-0 2.49	1-1-0 3.02	2-0-0 2.72	1-0-1 2.56	0-1-1 2.76
Kiffen 08	0-2-0 2.75	1-0-1 2.81	1-1-0 2.87	—	1-0-1 3.47	2-0-0 2.63	1-1-0 3.25	2-0-0 2.92	1-1-0 2.71	0-2-0 3.05
Kotkan Reipas	1-0-1 1.99	0-0-2 2.33	0-1-1 2.33	1-0-1 1.99	—	1-0-1 1.88	1-1-0 1.98	0-0-2 2.33	0-0-2 1.85	0-0-2 2.23
KuPS	1-1-0 2.66	1-0-1 2.99	0-2-0 2.96	0-0-2 2.81	1-0-1 3.59	—	2-0-0 3.10	1-1-0 3.06	0-1-1 2.85	1-1-0 3.05
Pyrkiva Turku	1-0-1 2.39	2-0-0 2.67	0-1-1 2.42	0-1-1 2.20	0-1-1 3.48	0-0-2 2.37	—	1-0-1 2.58	2-0-0 2.25	0-0-2 2.71
TuTo	1-0-1 2.44	0-1-1 2.72	0-0-2 2.73	0-0-2 2.53	2-0-0 3.11	0-1-1 2.39	1-0-1 2.87	—	0-1-1 2.40	2-0-0 2.60
VIFK	1-1-0 2.82	0-2-0 3.07	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 2.73	2-0-0 3.61	1-1-0 2.59	0-0-2 3.22	1-1-0 3.05	—	1-1-0 3.03
VPS	1-0-1 2.47	1-0-1 2.64	1-1-0 2.68	0-2-0 2.40	2-0-0 3.23	0-1-1 2.40	2-0-0 2.73	0-0-2 2.84	0-1-1 2.42	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.06	+1.4
Allowed	0.69	-2.2
Differential	0.64	+1.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	6.11%	2.78%	2.22%	2.22%	3.33%	20.00%
1	6.11%	16.67%	6.67%	2.78%	0.56%	3.33%	36.11%
2	2.78%	6.67%	6.67%	2.22%	1.67%	1.67%	21.67%
3	2.22%	2.78%	2.22%	—	1.11%	—	8.33%
4	2.22%	0.56%	1.67%	1.11%	—	—	5.56%
5+	3.33%	3.33%	1.67%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	20.00%	36.11%	21.67%	8.33%	5.56%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.85	1.85	+0.00
SD	2.20	2.20	3.40
CV	1.19	1.19	—
Max	21	21	+21
Min	0	0	-21

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	—	16.67%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	11.11%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	38.89%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	1.94	+0.00
SD	1.16	1.51	2.11
CV	0.60	0.78	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	5.56%	50.00%	33.33%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.28	1.50	+0.78
SD	2.05	0.79	2.16
CV	0.90	0.52	—
Max	7	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	38.89%
2	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	22.22%	38.89%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.33	+0.44
SD	1.99	1.03	2.31
CV	1.12	0.77	—
Max	8	3	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
2	—	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	44.44%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.06	+0.94
SD	1.24	1.11	1.63
CV	0.62	1.05	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%	44.44%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	44.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.33	3.83	-1.50
SD	4.78	2.77	6.40
CV	2.05	0.72	—
Max	21	8	+21
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	27.78%	33.33%	33.33%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	1.17	+0.94
SD	2.22	0.92	2.69
CV	1.05	0.79	—
Max	8	3	+8
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	44.44%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	3.11	-2.17
SD	1.00	4.91	5.43
CV	1.06	1.58	—
Max	3	21	+3
Min	0	0	-21

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	33.33%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	50.00%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	2.00	-0.56
SD	1.58	1.53	2.48
CV	1.09	0.77	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	38.89%	5.56%	—	—	—	50.00%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	66.67%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	1.22	+0.89
SD	2.17	0.88	2.42
CV	1.03	0.72	—
Max	8	4	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
2	—	16.67%	—	—	11.11%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	44.44%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.33	+0.22
SD	1.46	1.33	1.99
CV	0.94	1.00	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
KuPS	1125	20	19.30	+0.70	64.0%	9	14	17	19	21	25	28
VIFK	1109	21	19.54	+1.46	67.0%	12	13	17	19	22	25	30
Kiffen 08	1100	25	19.49	+5.51	96.0%	9	13	17	20	22	25	28
HJK	1088	15	20.30	-5.30	5.0%	12	15	18	20	23	25	30
Haka	1087	23	17.32	+5.68	96.0%	9	11	15	17	20	23	28
KTP	1080	17	18.16	-1.16	43.0%	10	12	16	19	20	23	26
VPS	1070	19	17.01	+1.99	74.0%	7	11	15	17	20	22	25
TuTo	1037	15	17.61	-2.61	31.0%	11	13	15	18	20	22	27
Pyrkiva Turku	981	15	16.98	-1.98	32.0%	8	10	14	18	19	22	27
Kotkan Reipas	977	10	14.29	-4.29	11.0%	7	9	12	14	17	19	23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+11.11%

Slight Edge

42.22%26.67%31.11%

Elo Value

Home Edge

94 Elo

0.011 goals per Elo point

038.76250

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.70 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.41+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.3

Wide Open

134510

Champion Preseason Odds

20%

Kiffen 08, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.11/gm

Comfortable

00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.79 * Some Luck: 2.79 to 4.19 * Lucky: 4.19 to 5.58 * Wild Swing: 5.58 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.94 * Close: 1.94 to 2.91 * Off: 2.91 to 3.88 * Way Off: 3.88 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.57 points

Some Luck

03.499

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.00

02.425

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

96.00%

Kiffen 08

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

5.00%

HJK

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.13

Balanced

00.150.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 50.77

1.23

Coin-Flip Parity

0.951.41.71.92.5

Interquartile Edge

57%

Even

50%62.5%70%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

70%

Even

50%72%100%

Close Games

Expected

59%

Frequent

0%34%100%

Blowouts

Expected

27%

Very Frequent

0%46%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.65

Hard to Predict

00.642

Matchup Imbalance

0.24

Very Even

00.330.410.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.03

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

-0.18

Weak Carryover

00.210.460.591

Upset Rate

Expected

32%

Very Upset-Prone

0%27%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

33%

Very Shaky

0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.

Probability calibration

0.27

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.52

Overconfident

0.3763921.001.62361

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.092

Well Within Noise

00.1520.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

HJK 1

TuTo 0

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Kiffen 08	20.00%	17.00%	14.00%	7.00%	8.00%	10.00%	9.00%	6.00%	6.00%	3.00%
Haka	9.00%	7.00%	9.00%	13.00%	6.00%	8.00%	11.00%	16.00%	14.00%	7.00%
VIFK	23.00%	12.00%	8.00%	12.00%	10.00%	9.00%	11.00%	6.00%	7.00%	2.00%
KuPS	13.00%	11.00%	19.00%	16.00%	13.00%	10.00%	6.00%	4.00%	6.00%	2.00%
VPS	3.00%	7.00%	13.00%	8.00%	12.00%	7.00%	13.00%	18.00%	7.00%	12.00%
KTP	7.00%	12.00%	5.00%	16.00%	14.00%	12.00%	11.00%	6.00%	11.00%	6.00%
HJK	18.00%	19.00%	10.00%	9.00%	16.00%	13.00%	6.00%	4.00%	4.00%	1.00%
TuTo	4.00%	9.00%	12.00%	6.00%	7.00%	12.00%	12.00%	16.00%	16.00%	6.00%
Pyrkiva Turku	3.00%	5.00%	8.00%	12.00%	7.00%	11.00%	14.00%	9.00%	14.00%	17.00%
Kotkan Reipas	—	1.00%	2.00%	1.00%	7.00%	8.00%	7.00%	15.00%	15.00%	44.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
HJK	95.00%	5.00%
KuPS	92.00%	8.00%
Kiffen 08	91.00%	9.00%
VIFK	91.00%	9.00%
KTP	83.00%	17.00%
VPS	81.00%	19.00%
Haka	79.00%	21.00%
TuTo	78.00%	22.00%
Pyrkiva Turku	69.00%	31.00%
Kotkan Reipas	41.00%	59.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1955-05-08	Kiffen 08	L 1-2	48.0	1051	1051	44.00%	27.84%	28.16%	+0.41	-4.3	0
1955-05-08	@ Haka	W 2-1	48.0	1051	1051	28.16%	27.84%	44.00%	-0.41	+4.3	2
1955-05-08	KTP	D 2-2	52.5	1091	1061	47.84%	27.55%	24.61%	+0.73	-0.4	1
1955-05-08	@ HJK	D 2-2	52.5	1061	1091	24.61%	27.55%	47.84%	-0.73	+0.4	1
1955-05-08	VPS	L 1-2	46.0	1001	1052	37.13%	27.96%	34.90%	-0.12	-3.8	0
1955-05-08	@ Kotkan Reipas	W 2-1	46.0	1052	1001	34.90%	27.96%	37.13%	+0.12	+3.8	2
1955-05-08	KuPS	L 1-5	45.5	1101	1094	44.86%	27.79%	27.35%	+0.48	-13.9	0
1955-05-08	@ Pyrkiva Turku	W 5-1	45.5	1094	1101	27.35%	27.79%	44.86%	-0.48	+13.9	2
1955-05-08	TuTo	W 1-0	39.5	1083	1071	45.46%	27.75%	26.79%	+0.53	+3.2	2
1955-05-08	@ VIFK	L 0-1	39.5	1071	1083	26.79%	27.75%	45.46%	-0.53	-3.2	0
1955-05-15	Kotkan Reipas	W 4-0	35.0	1055	997	51.09%	27.15%	21.76%	+1.02	+9.5	4
1955-05-15	@ Kiffen 08	L 0-4	35.0	997	1055	21.76%	27.15%	51.09%	-1.02	-9.5	0
1955-05-15	Pyrkiva Turku	W 3-0	38.9	1061	1087	40.49%	27.96%	31.54%	+0.13	+9.8	3
1955-05-15	@ KTP	L 0-3	38.9	1087	1061	31.54%	27.96%	40.49%	-0.13	-9.8	0
1955-05-15	VIFK	D 1-1	49.0	1108	1086	46.84%	27.64%	25.52%	+0.65	-0.5	3
1955-05-15	@ KuPS	D 1-1	49.0	1086	1108	25.52%	27.64%	46.84%	-0.65	+0.5	3
1955-05-15	Haka	D 2-2	52.5	1068	1047	46.74%	27.65%	25.61%	+0.64	-0.3	1
1955-05-15	@ TuTo	D 2-2	52.5	1047	1068	25.61%	27.65%	46.74%	-0.64	+0.3	1
1955-05-15	HJK	L 2-4	49.1	1055	1091	39.25%	27.98%	32.77%	+0.04	-6.1	2
1955-05-15	@ VPS	W 4-2	49.1	1091	1055	32.77%	27.98%	39.25%	-0.04	+6.1	3
1955-05-22	VPS	W 4-2	45.8	1047	1049	43.67%	27.86%	28.47%	+0.39	+4.8	3
1955-05-22	@ Haka	L 2-4	45.8	1049	1047	28.47%	27.86%	43.67%	-0.39	-4.8	2
1955-05-22	TuTo	W 5-0	36.8	1065	1068	43.59%	27.86%	28.55%	+0.38	+14.6	6
1955-05-22	@ Kiffen 08	L 0-5	36.8	1068	1065	28.55%	27.86%	43.59%	-0.38	-14.6	1
1955-05-22	KuPS	W 2-0	43.6	988	1108	27.97%	27.39%	44.64%	-0.86	+8.7	2
1955-05-22	@ Kotkan Reipas	L 0-2	43.6	1108	988	44.64%	27.39%	27.97%	+0.86	-8.7	3
1955-05-22	HJK	W 3-0	38.6	1077	1097	41.41%	27.94%	30.65%	+0.21	+9.5	2
1955-05-22	@ Pyrkiva Turku	L 0-3	38.6	1097	1077	30.65%	27.94%	41.41%	-0.21	-9.6	3
1955-05-22	KTP	W 3-1	41.8	1086	1071	45.98%	27.71%	26.31%	+0.57	+5.1	5
1955-05-22	@ VIFK	L 1-3	41.8	1071	1086	26.31%	27.71%	45.98%	-0.57	-5.1	3
1955-05-30	VIFK	D 1-1	48.9	1087	1091	43.45%	27.87%	28.68%	+0.37	-0.3	4
1955-05-30	@ HJK	D 1-1	48.9	1091	1087	28.68%	27.87%	43.45%	-0.37	+0.3	6
1955-05-30	Haka	L 0-1	45.2	1066	1052	45.78%	27.73%	26.49%	+0.56	-4.7	3
1955-05-30	@ KTP	W 1-0	45.2	1052	1066	26.49%	27.73%	45.78%	-0.56	+4.7	5
1955-05-30	Kiffen 08	L 0-1	45.4	1099	1079	46.51%	27.67%	25.82%	+0.62	-4.8	3
1955-05-30	@ KuPS	W 1-0	45.4	1079	1099	25.82%	27.67%	46.51%	-0.62	+4.8	8
1955-05-30	Kotkan Reipas	W 5-1	38.4	1053	997	50.96%	27.17%	21.88%	+1.01	+8.0	3
1955-05-30	@ TuTo	L 1-5	38.4	997	1053	21.88%	27.17%	50.96%	-1.01	-8.0	2
1955-05-30	Pyrkiva Turku	W 6-0	38.1	1044	1087	38.25%	27.98%	33.77%	-0.04	+19.6	4
1955-05-30	@ VPS	L 0-6	38.1	1087	1044	33.77%	27.98%	38.25%	+0.04	-19.6	2
1955-06-05	Kotkan Reipas	W 5-2	41.9	1056	989	52.25%	26.97%	20.78%	+1.13	+5.1	7
1955-06-05	@ Haka	L 2-5	41.9	989	1056	20.78%	26.97%	52.25%	-1.13	-5.1	2
1955-06-05	TuTo	W 4-0	36.1	1087	1061	47.27%	27.60%	25.13%	+0.68	+10.7	6
1955-06-05	@ HJK	L 0-4	36.1	1061	1087	25.13%	27.60%	47.27%	-0.68	-10.7	3
1955-06-05	Kiffen 08	L 1-3	46.2	1061	1084	40.90%	27.95%	31.14%	+0.17	-7.0	3
1955-06-05	@ KTP	W 3-1	46.2	1084	1061	31.14%	27.95%	40.90%	-0.17	+7.1	10
1955-06-05	VIFK	W 1-0	41.0	1067	1092	40.74%	27.96%	31.30%	+0.15	+3.5	4
1955-06-05	@ Pyrkiva Turku	L 0-1	41.0	1092	1067	31.30%	27.96%	40.74%	-0.15	-3.5	6
1955-06-05	KuPS	L 0-1	43.6	1064	1094	39.96%	27.97%	32.07%	+0.09	-4.2	4
1955-06-05	@ VPS	W 1-0	43.6	1094	1064	32.07%	27.97%	39.96%	-0.09	+4.2	5
1955-06-12	Pyrkiva Turku	W 3-0	37.1	1091	1071	46.59%	27.66%	25.75%	+0.63	+8.4	12
1955-06-12	@ Kiffen 08	L 0-3	37.1	1071	1091	25.75%	27.66%	46.59%	-0.63	-8.4	4
1955-06-12	HJK	L 0-2	38.9	984	1097	28.65%	27.47%	43.88%	-0.80	-6.2	2
1955-06-12	@ Kotkan Reipas	W 2-0	38.9	1097	984	43.88%	27.47%	28.65%	+0.80	+6.2	8
1955-06-12	KTP	D 0-0	46.2	1098	1054	49.55%	27.36%	23.09%	+0.88	-0.6	6
1955-06-12	@ KuPS	D 0-0	46.2	1054	1098	23.09%	27.36%	49.55%	-0.88	+0.7	4
1955-06-12	VPS	W 2-1	43.6	1050	1060	42.74%	27.90%	29.37%	+0.31	+3.2	5
1955-06-12	@ TuTo	L 1-2	43.6	1060	1050	29.37%	27.90%	42.74%	-0.31	-3.2	4
1955-06-12	Haka	D 1-1	49.0	1088	1062	47.35%	27.59%	25.05%	+0.69	-0.5	7
1955-06-12	@ VIFK	D 1-1	49.0	1062	1088	25.05%	27.59%	47.35%	-0.69	+0.5	8
1955-06-22	KuPS	W 3-1	43.8	1062	1098	39.19%	27.98%	32.84%	+0.03	+6.0	10
1955-06-22	@ Haka	L 1-3	43.8	1098	1062	32.84%	27.98%	39.19%	-0.03	-6.0	6
1955-06-22	Kiffen 08	D 2-2	52.4	1104	1099	44.55%	27.81%	27.64%	+0.46	-0.3	9
1955-06-22	@ HJK	D 2-2	52.4	1099	1104	27.64%	27.81%	44.55%	-0.46	+0.3	13
1955-06-22	Kotkan Reipas	D 1-1	49.2	1054	977	53.30%	26.79%	19.90%	+1.23	-0.8	5
1955-06-22	@ KTP	D 1-1	49.2	977	1054	19.90%	26.79%	53.30%	-1.23	+0.8	3
1955-06-22	TuTo	L 0-1	45.1	1062	1054	45.13%	27.77%	27.09%	+0.50	-4.7	4
1955-06-22	@ Pyrkiva Turku	W 1-0	45.1	1054	1062	27.09%	27.77%	45.13%	-0.50	+4.7	7
1955-06-22	VIFK	D 1-1	48.9	1057	1087	39.85%	27.97%	32.18%	+0.08	-0.2	5
1955-06-22	@ VPS	D 1-1	48.9	1087	1057	32.18%	27.97%	39.85%	-0.08	+0.2	8
1955-06-26	Haka	L 3-4	55.8	1103	1068	48.46%	27.48%	24.06%	+0.79	-4.3	9
1955-06-26	@ HJK	W 4-3	55.8	1068	1103	24.06%	27.48%	48.46%	-0.79	+4.3	12
1955-06-26	VPS	D 0-0	46.0	1054	1056	43.62%	27.86%	28.52%	+0.38	-0.4	6
1955-06-26	@ KTP	D 0-0	46.0	1056	1054	28.52%	27.86%	43.62%	-0.38	+0.4	6
1955-06-26	TuTo	D 1-1	49.0	1092	1058	48.22%	27.51%	24.27%	+0.77	-0.5	7
1955-06-26	@ KuPS	D 1-1	49.0	1058	1092	24.27%	27.51%	48.22%	-0.77	+0.5	8
1955-06-26	Kotkan Reipas	D 1-1	49.2	1058	978	53.58%	26.74%	19.68%	+1.26	-0.8	5
1955-06-26	@ Pyrkiva Turku	D 1-1	49.2	978	1058	19.68%	26.74%	53.58%	-1.26	+0.8	4
1955-06-26	Kiffen 08	D 1-1	48.9	1088	1100	42.40%	27.91%	29.69%	+0.28	-0.3	9
1955-06-26	@ VIFK	D 1-1	48.9	1100	1088	29.69%	27.91%	42.40%	-0.28	+0.3	14
1955-07-24	Pyrkiva Turku	L 0-2	44.1	1072	1057	45.97%	27.71%	26.32%	+0.57	-8.9	12
1955-07-24	@ Haka	W 2-0	44.1	1057	1072	26.32%	27.71%	45.97%	-0.57	+9.0	7
1955-07-24	VPS	D 1-1	49.0	1100	1057	49.38%	27.38%	23.24%	+0.87	-0.6	15
1955-07-24	@ Kiffen 08	D 1-1	49.0	1057	1100	23.24%	27.38%	49.38%	-0.87	+0.6	7
1955-07-24	HJK	D 1-1	48.9	1091	1099	42.94%	27.89%	29.17%	+0.33	-0.3	8
1955-07-24	@ KuPS	D 1-1	48.9	1099	1091	29.17%	27.89%	42.94%	-0.33	+0.3	10
1955-07-24	KTP	L 0-1	44.9	1059	1053	44.68%	27.80%	27.52%	+0.47	-4.6	8
1955-07-24	@ TuTo	W 1-0	44.9	1053	1059	27.52%	27.80%	44.68%	-0.47	+4.6	8
1955-07-24	Kotkan Reipas	W 8-1	34.6	1087	979	56.66%	26.09%	17.25%	+1.56	+10.9	11
1955-07-24	@ VIFK	L 1-8	34.6	979	1087	17.25%	26.09%	56.66%	-1.56	-10.8	4
1955-07-30	TuTo	W 4-0	37.0	1058	1054	44.49%	27.81%	27.69%	+0.45	+11.6	10
1955-07-30	@ KTP	L 0-4	37.0	1054	1058	27.69%	27.81%	44.49%	-0.45	-11.6	8
1955-07-31	KuPS	L 2-3	51.9	1099	1091	45.10%	27.77%	27.13%	+0.50	-4.2	10
1955-07-31	@ HJK	W 3-2	51.9	1091	1099	27.13%	27.77%	45.10%	-0.50	+4.2	10
1955-07-31	VIFK	L 0-6	35.8	968	1098	26.72%	27.23%	46.05%	-0.97	-16.4	4
1955-07-31	@ Kotkan Reipas	W 6-0	35.8	1098	968	46.05%	27.23%	26.72%	+0.97	+16.3	13
1955-07-31	Haka	W 1-0	39.9	1066	1063	44.31%	27.82%	27.87%	+0.44	+3.2	9
1955-07-31	@ Pyrkiva Turku	L 0-1	39.9	1063	1066	27.87%	27.82%	44.31%	-0.44	-3.2	12
1955-07-31	Kiffen 08	D 0-0	46.0	1057	1099	38.31%	27.98%	33.71%	-0.03	-0.1	8
1955-07-31	@ VPS	D 0-0	46.0	1099	1057	33.71%	27.98%	38.31%	+0.03	+0.1	16
1955-08-07	HJK	W 2-1	44.7	1060	1095	39.26%	27.98%	32.76%	+0.04	+3.5	14
1955-08-07	@ Haka	L 1-2	44.7	1095	1060	32.76%	27.98%	39.26%	-0.04	-3.5	10
1955-08-07	VIFK	W 2-1	43.9	1099	1115	41.99%	27.93%	30.09%	+0.25	+3.2	18
1955-08-07	@ Kiffen 08	L 1-2	43.9	1115	1099	30.09%	27.93%	41.99%	-0.25	-3.2	13
1955-08-07	Pyrkiva Turku	W 21-0	41.5	952	1069	28.22%	27.42%	44.36%	-0.83	+80.5	6
1955-08-07	@ Kotkan Reipas	L 0-21	41.5	1069	952	44.36%	27.42%	28.22%	+0.83	-80.5	9
1955-08-07	KuPS	L 2-3	49.4	1043	1095	36.83%	27.96%	35.21%	-0.15	-3.6	8
1955-08-07	@ TuTo	W 3-2	49.4	1095	1043	35.21%	27.96%	36.83%	+0.15	+3.6	12
1955-08-07	KTP	W 2-1	43.7	1057	1070	42.37%	27.91%	29.72%	+0.28	+3.2	10
1955-08-07	@ VPS	L 1-2	43.7	1070	1057	29.72%	27.91%	42.37%	-0.28	-3.2	10
1955-08-19	HJK	D 1-1	48.9	1103	1092	45.40%	27.75%	26.85%	+0.53	-0.4	19
1955-08-19	@ Kiffen 08	D 1-1	48.9	1092	1103	26.85%	27.75%	45.40%	-0.53	+0.4	11
1955-08-19	KTP	L 1-8	41.8	1032	1066	39.38%	27.97%	32.65%	+0.05	-20.9	6
1955-08-19	@ Kotkan Reipas	W 8-1	41.8	1066	1032	32.65%	27.97%	39.38%	-0.05	+20.9	12
1955-08-19	Pyrkiva Turku	L 1-2	49.7	1039	989	50.24%	27.27%	22.50%	+0.94	-4.8	8
1955-08-19	@ TuTo	W 2-1	49.7	989	1039	22.50%	27.27%	50.24%	-0.94	+4.8	11
1955-08-19	VPS	W 3-1	40.5	1111	1061	50.30%	27.26%	22.44%	+0.95	+4.5	15
1955-08-19	@ VIFK	L 1-3	40.5	1061	1111	22.44%	27.26%	50.30%	-0.95	-4.5	10
1955-08-21	Haka	W 3-0	36.5	1099	1064	48.41%	27.49%	24.11%	+0.78	+7.9	14
1955-08-21	@ KuPS	L 0-3	36.5	1064	1099	24.11%	27.49%	48.41%	-0.78	-7.9	14
1955-09-04	VIFK	D 1-1	48.9	1056	1116	35.75%	27.93%	36.32%	-0.23	+0.0	15
1955-09-04	@ Haka	D 1-1	48.9	1116	1056	36.32%	27.93%	35.75%	+0.23	-0.0	16
1955-09-04	Kotkan Reipas	L 2-3	54.1	1092	1011	53.73%	26.71%	19.56%	+1.27	-4.9	11
1955-09-04	@ HJK	W 3-2	54.1	1011	1092	19.56%	26.71%	53.73%	-1.27	+4.9	8
1955-09-04	KuPS	D 2-2	52.4	1087	1107	41.43%	27.94%	30.63%	+0.21	-0.2	13
1955-09-04	@ KTP	D 2-2	52.4	1107	1087	30.63%	27.94%	41.43%	-0.21	+0.2	15
1955-09-04	Kiffen 08	D 2-2	52.5	993	1102	29.28%	27.54%	43.19%	-0.74	+0.2	12
1955-09-04	@ Pyrkiva Turku	D 2-2	52.5	1102	993	43.19%	27.54%	29.28%	+0.74	-0.2	20
1955-09-04	TuTo	L 1-3	47.9	1056	1034	46.79%	27.64%	25.56%	+0.64	-7.9	10
1955-09-04	@ VPS	W 3-1	47.9	1034	1056	25.56%	27.64%	46.79%	-0.64	+7.9	10
1955-09-18	KTP	D 1-1	49.0	1102	1087	45.92%	27.72%	26.37%	+0.57	-0.4	21
1955-09-18	@ Kiffen 08	D 1-1	49.0	1087	1102	26.37%	27.72%	45.92%	-0.57	+0.4	14
1955-09-18	Haka	L 1-7	42.2	1016	1056	38.63%	27.98%	33.40%	-0.01	-17.9	8
1955-09-18	@ Kotkan Reipas	W 7-1	42.2	1056	1016	33.40%	27.98%	38.63%	+0.01	+17.9	17
1955-09-18	VPS	D 1-1	49.1	1107	1048	51.19%	27.13%	21.67%	+1.03	-0.7	16
1955-09-18	@ KuPS	D 1-1	49.1	1048	1107	21.67%	27.13%	51.19%	-1.03	+0.7	11
1955-09-18	HJK	W 2-1	45.1	1042	1087	37.84%	27.97%	34.19%	-0.07	+3.6	12
1955-09-18	@ TuTo	L 1-2	45.1	1087	1042	34.19%	27.97%	37.84%	+0.07	-3.6	11
1955-09-18	Pyrkiva Turku	L 0-2	47.2	1116	994	58.03%	25.75%	16.21%	+1.71	-10.9	16
1955-09-18	@ VIFK	W 2-0	47.2	994	1116	16.21%	25.75%	58.03%	-1.71	+10.9	14
1955-09-25	KTP	W 2-1	43.8	1074	1088	42.14%	27.92%	29.94%	+0.26	+3.2	19
1955-09-25	@ Haka	L 1-2	43.8	1088	1074	29.94%	27.92%	42.14%	-0.26	-3.2	14
1955-09-25	KuPS	W 2-1	43.4	1102	1106	43.41%	27.87%	28.72%	+0.36	+3.1	23
1955-09-25	@ Kiffen 08	L 1-2	43.4	1106	1102	28.72%	27.87%	43.41%	-0.36	-3.1	16
1955-09-25	TuTo	L 2-5	47.3	998	1046	37.55%	27.97%	34.49%	-0.09	-8.1	8
1955-09-25	@ Kotkan Reipas	W 5-2	47.3	1046	998	34.49%	27.97%	37.55%	+0.09	+8.1	14
1955-09-25	VPS	L 0-1	43.0	1005	1049	37.99%	27.97%	34.03%	-0.06	-4.1	14
1955-09-25	@ Pyrkiva Turku	W 1-0	43.0	1049	1005	34.03%	27.97%	37.99%	+0.06	+4.1	13
1955-09-25	HJK	W 5-2	43.6	1105	1084	46.69%	27.65%	25.66%	+0.63	+6.1	18
1955-09-25	@ VIFK	L 2-5	43.6	1084	1105	25.66%	27.65%	46.69%	-0.63	-6.1	11
1955-10-02	Pyrkiva Turku	W 4-0	34.3	1078	1001	53.30%	26.79%	19.91%	+1.23	+8.8	13
1955-10-02	@ HJK	L 0-4	34.3	1001	1078	19.91%	26.79%	53.30%	-1.23	-8.8	14
1955-10-02	VIFK	W 4-2	46.8	1084	1111	40.42%	27.96%	31.62%	+0.13	+5.2	16
1955-10-02	@ KTP	L 2-4	46.8	1111	1084	31.62%	27.96%	40.42%	-0.13	-5.2	18
1955-10-02	Kotkan Reipas	W 8-0	32.4	1103	990	57.10%	25.99%	16.91%	+1.61	+14.7	18
1955-10-02	@ KuPS	L 0-8	32.4	990	1103	16.91%	25.99%	57.10%	-1.61	-14.7	8
1955-10-02	Kiffen 08	L 0-1	42.7	1054	1105	37.02%	27.96%	35.02%	-0.13	-4.0	14
1955-10-02	@ TuTo	W 1-0	42.7	1105	1054	35.02%	27.96%	37.02%	+0.13	+4.0	25
1955-10-02	Haka	W 1-0	40.9	1053	1077	40.81%	27.96%	31.24%	+0.16	+3.5	15
1955-10-02	@ VPS	L 0-1	40.9	1077	1053	31.24%	27.96%	40.81%	-0.16	-3.5	19
1955-10-09	TuTo	W 5-1	39.6	1073	1050	47.00%	27.63%	25.38%	+0.66	+9.0	21
1955-10-09	@ Haka	L 1-5	39.6	1050	1073	25.38%	27.63%	47.00%	-0.66	-9.0	14
1955-10-09	VPS	L 1-4	47.2	1086	1056	47.80%	27.55%	24.65%	+0.73	-11.3	13
1955-10-09	@ HJK	W 4-1	47.2	1056	1086	24.65%	27.55%	47.80%	-0.73	+11.3	17
1955-10-09	Kiffen 08	W 4-3	55.1	975	1109	26.36%	27.18%	46.47%	-1.00	+4.2	10
1955-10-09	@ Kotkan Reipas	L 3-4	55.1	1109	975	46.47%	27.18%	26.36%	+1.00	-4.1	25
1955-10-09	KTP	D 2-2	52.5	992	1089	30.67%	27.66%	41.67%	-0.63	+0.2	15
1955-10-09	@ Pyrkiva Turku	D 2-2	52.5	1089	992	41.67%	27.66%	30.67%	+0.63	-0.2	17
1955-10-09	KuPS	W 2-1	43.7	1106	1118	42.42%	27.91%	29.67%	+0.28	+3.2	20
1955-10-09	@ VIFK	L 1-2	43.7	1118	1106	29.67%	27.91%	42.42%	-0.28	-3.2	18
1955-10-16	Haka	L 2-3	52.4	1105	1082	46.85%	27.64%	25.51%	+0.65	-4.3	25
1955-10-16	@ Kiffen 08	W 3-2	52.4	1082	1105	25.51%	27.64%	46.85%	-0.65	+4.3	23
1955-10-16	HJK	L 0-2	44.1	1089	1075	45.81%	27.72%	26.47%	+0.56	-8.9	17
1955-10-16	@ KTP	W 2-0	44.1	1075	1089	26.47%	27.72%	45.81%	-0.56	+8.9	15
1955-10-16	Pyrkiva Turku	W 6-0	32.2	1114	992	58.08%	25.74%	16.18%	+1.71	+10.7	20
1955-10-16	@ KuPS	L 0-6	32.2	992	1114	16.18%	25.74%	58.08%	-1.71	-10.7	15
1955-10-16	VIFK	D 1-1	48.9	1041	1109	34.60%	27.90%	37.50%	-0.31	+0.1	15
1955-10-16	@ TuTo	D 1-1	48.9	1109	1041	37.50%	27.90%	34.60%	+0.31	-0.1	21
1955-10-16	Kotkan Reipas	W 2-1	40.1	1068	980	54.52%	26.56%	18.92%	+1.35	+2.2	19
1955-10-16	@ VPS	L 1-2	40.1	980	1068	18.92%	26.56%	54.52%	-1.35	-2.2	10

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Record
1955-10-23	TuTo	W 1-0	40.6	1084	1041	42.10%	27.81%	30.10%	+0.46	+3.4	1-0
1955-10-23	@ HJK	L 0-1	40.6	1041	1084	30.10%	27.81%	42.10%	-0.46	-3.4	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1955-09-18	16.21%	Pyrkiva Turku	994	2	@ VIFK	1116	0
2	1955-09-04	19.56%	Kotkan Reipas	1011	3	@ HJK	1092	2
3	1955-08-19	22.50%	Pyrkiva Turku	989	2	@ TuTo	1039	1
4	1955-06-26	24.06%	Haka	1068	4	@ HJK	1103	3
5	1955-10-09	24.65%	VPS	1056	4	@ HJK	1086	1
6	1955-10-16	25.51%	Haka	1082	3	@ Kiffen 08	1105	2
7	1955-09-04	25.56%	TuTo	1034	3	@ VPS	1056	1
8	1955-05-30	25.82%	Kiffen 08	1079	1	@ KuPS	1099	0
9	1955-07-24	26.32%	Pyrkiva Turku	1057	2	@ Haka	1072	0
10	1955-10-09	26.36%	@ Kotkan Reipas	975	4	Kiffen 08	1109	3
11	1955-10-16	26.47%	HJK	1075	2	@ KTP	1089	0
12	1955-05-30	26.49%	Haka	1052	1	@ KTP	1066	0
13	1955-06-22	27.09%	TuTo	1054	1	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1062	0
14	1955-07-31	27.13%	KuPS	1091	3	@ HJK	1099	2
15	1955-05-08	27.35%	KuPS	1094	5	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1101	1
16	1955-07-24	27.52%	KTP	1053	1	@ TuTo	1059	0
17	1955-05-22	27.97%	@ Kotkan Reipas	988	2	KuPS	1108	0
18	1955-05-08	28.16%	Kiffen 08	1051	2	@ Haka	1051	1
19	1955-08-07	28.22%	@ Kotkan Reipas	952	21	Pyrkiva Turku	1069	0
20	1955-06-05	31.14%	Kiffen 08	1084	3	@ KTP	1061	1
21	1955-06-05	32.07%	KuPS	1094	1	@ VPS	1064	0
22	1955-08-19	32.65%	KTP	1066	8	@ Kotkan Reipas	1032	1
23	1955-05-15	32.77%	HJK	1091	4	@ VPS	1055	2
24	1955-09-18	33.40%	Haka	1056	7	@ Kotkan Reipas	1016	1
25	1955-09-25	34.03%	VPS	1049	1	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1005	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1955-08-07	80.46	@ Kotkan Reipas	21	952	28.22%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	1069	44.36%	27.42%
2	1955-08-19	20.93	KTP	8	1066	32.65%	@ Kotkan Reipas	1	1032	39.38%	27.97%
3	1955-05-30	19.62	@ VPS	6	1044	38.25%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	1087	33.77%	27.98%
4	1955-09-18	17.86	Haka	7	1056	33.40%	@ Kotkan Reipas	1	1016	38.63%	27.98%
5	1955-07-31	16.35	VIFK	6	1098	46.05%	@ Kotkan Reipas	0	968	26.72%	27.23%
6	1955-10-02	14.71	@ KuPS	8	1103	57.10%	Kotkan Reipas	0	990	16.91%	25.99%
7	1955-05-22	14.58	@ Kiffen 08	5	1065	43.59%	TuTo	0	1068	28.55%	27.86%
8	1955-05-08	13.86	KuPS	5	1094	27.35%	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1	1101	44.86%	27.79%
9	1955-07-30	11.56	@ KTP	4	1058	44.49%	TuTo	0	1054	27.69%	27.81%
10	1955-10-09	11.32	VPS	4	1056	24.65%	@ HJK	1	1086	47.80%	27.55%
11	1955-09-18	10.93	Pyrkiva Turku	2	994	16.21%	@ VIFK	0	1116	58.03%	25.75%
12	1955-07-24	10.85	@ VIFK	8	1087	56.66%	Kotkan Reipas	1	979	17.25%	26.09%
13	1955-10-16	10.74	@ KuPS	6	1114	58.08%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	992	16.18%	25.74%
14	1955-06-05	10.72	@ HJK	4	1087	47.27%	TuTo	0	1061	25.13%	27.60%
15	1955-05-15	9.76	@ KTP	3	1061	40.49%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	1087	31.54%	27.96%
16	1955-05-22	9.56	@ Pyrkiva Turku	3	1077	41.41%	HJK	0	1097	30.65%	27.94%
17	1955-05-15	9.53	@ Kiffen 08	4	1055	51.09%	Kotkan Reipas	0	997	21.76%	27.15%
18	1955-10-09	9.00	@ Haka	5	1073	47.00%	TuTo	1	1050	25.38%	27.63%
19	1955-07-24	8.95	Pyrkiva Turku	2	1057	26.32%	@ Haka	0	1072	45.97%	27.71%
20	1955-10-16	8.92	HJK	2	1075	26.47%	@ KTP	0	1089	45.81%	27.72%
21	1955-10-02	8.84	@ HJK	4	1078	53.30%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	1001	19.91%	26.79%
22	1955-05-22	8.70	@ Kotkan Reipas	2	988	27.97%	KuPS	0	1108	44.64%	27.39%
23	1955-06-12	8.36	@ Kiffen 08	3	1091	46.59%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	1071	25.75%	27.66%
24	1955-09-25	8.09	TuTo	5	1046	34.49%	@ Kotkan Reipas	2	998	37.55%	27.97%
25	1955-05-30	7.97	@ TuTo	5	1053	50.96%	Kotkan Reipas	1	997	21.88%	27.17%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1955-06-26	55.8	Haka	4	1068	24.06%	@ HJK	3	1103	48.46%	27.48%
2	1955-10-09	55.1	@ Kotkan Reipas	4	975	26.36%	Kiffen 08	3	1109	46.47%	27.18%
3	1955-09-04	54.1	Kotkan Reipas	3	1011	19.56%	@ HJK	2	1092	53.73%	26.71%
4	1955-05-08	52.5	@ HJK	2	1091	47.84%	KTP	2	1061	24.61%	27.55%
5	1955-05-15	52.5	@ TuTo	2	1068	46.74%	Haka	2	1047	25.61%	27.65%
6	1955-09-04	52.5	@ Pyrkiva Turku	2	993	29.28%	Kiffen 08	2	1102	43.19%	27.54%
7	1955-10-09	52.5	@ Pyrkiva Turku	2	992	30.67%	KTP	2	1089	41.67%	27.66%
8	1955-06-22	52.4	@ HJK	2	1104	44.55%	Kiffen 08	2	1099	27.64%	27.81%
9	1955-09-04	52.4	@ KTP	2	1087	41.43%	KuPS	2	1107	30.63%	27.94%
10	1955-10-16	52.4	Haka	3	1082	25.51%	@ Kiffen 08	2	1105	46.85%	27.64%
11	1955-07-31	51.9	KuPS	3	1091	27.13%	@ HJK	2	1099	45.10%	27.77%
12	1955-08-19	49.7	Pyrkiva Turku	2	989	22.50%	@ TuTo	1	1039	50.24%	27.27%
13	1955-08-07	49.4	KuPS	3	1095	35.21%	@ TuTo	2	1043	36.83%	27.96%
14	1955-06-22	49.2	@ KTP	1	1054	53.30%	Kotkan Reipas	1	977	19.90%	26.79%
15	1955-06-26	49.2	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1	1058	53.58%	Kotkan Reipas	1	978	19.68%	26.74%
16	1955-05-15	49.1	HJK	4	1091	32.77%	@ VPS	2	1055	39.25%	27.98%
17	1955-09-18	49.1	@ KuPS	1	1107	51.19%	VPS	1	1048	21.67%	27.13%
18	1955-05-15	49.0	@ KuPS	1	1108	46.84%	VIFK	1	1086	25.52%	27.64%
19	1955-06-12	49.0	@ VIFK	1	1088	47.35%	Haka	1	1062	25.05%	27.59%
20	1955-06-26	49.0	@ KuPS	1	1092	48.22%	TuTo	1	1058	24.27%	27.51%
21	1955-07-24	49.0	@ Kiffen 08	1	1100	49.38%	VPS	1	1057	23.24%	27.38%
22	1955-09-18	49.0	@ Kiffen 08	1	1102	45.92%	KTP	1	1087	26.37%	27.72%
23	1955-05-30	48.9	@ HJK	1	1087	43.45%	VIFK	1	1091	28.68%	27.87%
24	1955-06-22	48.9	@ VPS	1	1057	39.85%	VIFK	1	1087	32.18%	27.97%
25	1955-06-26	48.9	@ VIFK	1	1088	42.40%	Kiffen 08	1	1100	29.69%	27.91%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1955-10-16	32.2	@ KuPS	6	1114	58.08%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	992	16.18%	25.74%
2	1955-10-02	32.4	@ KuPS	8	1103	57.10%	Kotkan Reipas	0	990	16.91%	25.99%
3	1955-10-02	34.3	@ HJK	4	1078	53.30%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	1001	19.91%	26.79%
4	1955-07-24	34.6	@ VIFK	8	1087	56.66%	Kotkan Reipas	1	979	17.25%	26.09%
5	1955-05-15	35.0	@ Kiffen 08	4	1055	51.09%	Kotkan Reipas	0	997	21.76%	27.15%
6	1955-07-31	35.8	VIFK	6	1098	46.05%	@ Kotkan Reipas	0	968	26.72%	27.23%
7	1955-06-05	36.1	@ HJK	4	1087	47.27%	TuTo	0	1061	25.13%	27.60%
8	1955-08-21	36.5	@ KuPS	3	1099	48.41%	Haka	0	1064	24.11%	27.49%
9	1955-05-22	36.8	@ Kiffen 08	5	1065	43.59%	TuTo	0	1068	28.55%	27.86%
10	1955-07-30	37.0	@ KTP	4	1058	44.49%	TuTo	0	1054	27.69%	27.81%
11	1955-06-12	37.1	@ Kiffen 08	3	1091	46.59%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	1071	25.75%	27.66%
12	1955-05-30	38.1	@ VPS	6	1044	38.25%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	1087	33.77%	27.98%
13	1955-05-30	38.4	@ TuTo	5	1053	50.96%	Kotkan Reipas	1	997	21.88%	27.17%
14	1955-05-22	38.6	@ Pyrkiva Turku	3	1077	41.41%	HJK	0	1097	30.65%	27.94%
15	1955-05-15	38.9	@ KTP	3	1061	40.49%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	1087	31.54%	27.96%
16	1955-06-12	38.9	HJK	2	1097	43.88%	@ Kotkan Reipas	0	984	28.65%	27.47%
17	1955-05-08	39.5	@ VIFK	1	1083	45.46%	TuTo	0	1071	26.79%	27.75%
18	1955-10-09	39.6	@ Haka	5	1073	47.00%	TuTo	1	1050	25.38%	27.63%
19	1955-07-31	39.9	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1	1066	44.31%	Haka	0	1063	27.87%	27.82%
20	1955-10-16	40.1	@ VPS	2	1068	54.52%	Kotkan Reipas	1	980	18.92%	26.56%
21	1955-08-19	40.5	@ VIFK	3	1111	50.30%	VPS	1	1061	22.44%	27.26%
22	1955-10-23 *	40.6	@ HJK	1	1084	42.10%	TuTo	0	1041	30.10%	27.81%
23	1955-10-02	40.9	@ VPS	1	1053	40.81%	Haka	0	1077	31.24%	27.96%
24	1955-06-05	41.0	@ Pyrkiva Turku	1	1067	40.74%	VIFK	0	1092	31.30%	27.96%
25	1955-08-07	41.5	@ Kotkan Reipas	21	952	28.22%	Pyrkiva Turku	0	1069	44.36%	27.42%