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1904 I. Osztály Season

72 games

Final

Champion

MTK Budapest

25 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Magyar Uszo Egylet

5.02 points above expected

16 points · 10.98 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fovarosi TC

5.91 points below expected

4 points · 9.91 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 MTK Budapest Champion 16 11 3 2 25 28 13 +15 20.50 +4.50
2 Ferencvaros 16 11 2 3 24 48 16 +32 23.28 +0.72
3 Budapest TC 16 9 4 3 22 28 13 +15 20.72 +1.28
4 Magyar Uszo Egylet 16 6 4 6 16 21 30 -9 10.98 +5.02
5 Budapest Postas 16 6 2 8 14 17 17 0 16.07 -2.07
6 Magyar AC 16 6 2 8 14 25 27 -2 13.13 +0.87
7 Muegyetemi 16 4 5 7 13 22 23 -1 16.98 -3.98
8 33FC 16 4 4 8 12 20 31 -11 12.43 -0.43
9 Fovarosi TC 16 0 4 12 4 16 55 -39 9.91 -5.91

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Magyar Uszo Egylet 16 10.98 +5.02
2 MTK Budapest 25 20.50 +4.50
3 Budapest TC 22 20.72 +1.28
4 Magyar AC 14 13.13 +0.87
5 Ferencvaros 24 23.28 +0.72

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fovarosi TC 4 9.91 -5.91
2 Muegyetemi 13 16.98 -3.98
3 Budapest Postas 14 16.07 -2.07
4 33FC 12 12.43 -0.43
5 Ferencvaros 24 23.28 +0.72

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Magyar AC 4 May 24 – Oct 2 1 in 25
2 Magyar Uszo Egylet 2 Oct 30 – Nov 6 1 in 18
3 MTK Budapest 4 Feb 21 – Mar 27 1 in 14
4 Budapest Postas 2 Mar 13 – Mar 20 1 in 7
5 Ferencvaros 5 Apr 10 – May 12 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fovarosi TC 8 Feb 28 – May 29 1 in 123
2 Magyar AC 5 Mar 20 – May 4 1 in 20
3 Budapest Postas 3 May 4 – Sep 25 1 in 7
4 Ferencvaros 1 Mar 13 – Mar 13 1 in 5
5 Muegyetemi 2 May 12 – Oct 2 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Magyar Uszo Egylet 4 Oct 30 – Nov 20 1 in 43
2 MTK Budapest 9 Apr 24 – Oct 30 1 in 26
3 Magyar AC 4 May 24 – Oct 2 1 in 5
4 Muegyetemi 2 Mar 13 – Mar 20 1 in 4
5 33FC 2 Apr 17 – May 1 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fovarosi TC 16 Feb 28 – Nov 20 1 in 70
2 33FC 5 Oct 30 – Nov 27 1 in 12
3 Budapest Postas 6 Mar 25 – Sep 25 1 in 11
4 Muegyetemi 5 May 12 – Oct 30 1 in 10
5 Budapest TC 2 Apr 24 – Sep 18 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
MTK Budapest 1565 23 -49 6 6.6 -0.6
Ferencvaros 1659 22 +17 7 6.8 +0.2
Budapest TC 1630 22 +30 7 6.4 +0.6
Magyar Uszo Egylet 1336 16 +109 7 2.7 +4.3
Budapest Postas 1448 14 +47 4 4.3 -0.3
Magyar AC 1398 14 -19 4 5.5 -1.5
Muegyetemi 1371 13 -87 4 5.9 -1.9
33FC 1296 12 -30 3 4.7 -1.7
Fovarosi TC 1174 4 -3 3 2.7 +0.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 33F BP BT FER FT MB MA MUE MUE
33FC —
1-0-1
2.20
0-0-2
1.31
1-0-1
1.03
1-1-0
3.27
0-0-2
1.43
0-1-1
2.54
0-2-0
3.12
1-0-1
1.76
Budapest Postas
1-0-1
3.35
 —
0-0-2
1.75
1-0-1
1.21
2-0-0
3.80
1-1-0
1.65
0-0-2
3.34
0-1-1
3.76
1-0-1
2.68
Budapest TC
2-0-0
4.26
2-0-0
3.81
 —
1-0-1
2.38
1-1-0
4.11
0-1-1
3.15
2-0-0
3.89
1-0-1
4.58
0-2-0
3.50
Ferencvaros
1-0-1
4.55
1-0-1
4.37
1-0-1
3.17
 —
2-0-0
4.76
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
4.59
2-0-0
4.67
1-1-0
3.94
Fovarosi TC
0-1-1
2.27
0-0-2
1.76
0-1-1
1.47
0-0-2
0.82
 —
0-0-2
1.47
0-1-1
1.95
0-0-2
2.68
0-1-1
1.35
MTK Budapest
2-0-0
4.13
0-1-1
3.90
1-1-0
2.40
0-1-1
2.40
2-0-0
4.11
 —
2-0-0
3.45
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.11
Magyar AC
1-1-0
3.00
2-0-0
2.22
0-0-2
1.68
0-0-2
1.00
1-1-0
3.62
0-0-2
2.11
 —
1-0-1
3.41
1-0-1
1.98
Magyar Uszo Egylet
0-2-0
2.43
1-1-0
1.80
1-0-1
0.99
0-0-2
0.92
2-0-0
2.87
0-0-2
1.62
1-0-1
2.15
 —
1-1-0
1.39
Muegyetemi
1-0-1
3.79
1-0-1
2.87
0-2-0
2.05
0-1-1
1.61
1-1-0
4.21
0-0-2
2.43
1-0-1
3.58
0-1-1
4.17
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.55 +5.1
Allowed 0.76 -4.4
Differential 0.87 +3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%10.42%4.86%4.17%0.69%2.78%25.69%
110.42%13.89%4.17%3.47%1.39%2.08%35.42%
24.86%4.17%4.17%1.39%—1.39%15.97%
34.17%3.47%1.39%——1.39%10.42%
40.69%1.39%————2.08%
5+2.78%2.08%1.39%1.39%—2.78%10.42%
Total25.69%35.42%15.97%10.42%2.08%10.42%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.53 +0.00
SD 1.88 1.88 2.79
CV 1.23 1.23 —
Max 13 13 +13
Min -1 -1 -13

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.75%——6.25%—25.00%
112.50%12.50%—12.50%——37.50%
2—6.25%12.50%——6.25%25.00%
3—6.25%———6.25%12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total12.50%43.75%12.50%12.50%6.25%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.94 -0.69
SD 1.00 1.61 1.62
CV 0.80 0.83 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%25.00%—6.25%——37.50%
112.50%6.25%12.50%6.25%——37.50%
26.25%—————6.25%
312.50%—6.25%———18.75%
4———————
5+———————
Total37.50%31.25%18.75%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.06 +0.00
SD 1.12 1.06 1.71
CV 1.06 1.00 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
112.50%25.00%6.25%———43.75%
26.25%12.50%————18.75%
36.25%12.50%————18.75%
4———————
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total31.25%56.25%12.50%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 0.81 +0.94
SD 1.48 0.66 1.88
CV 0.85 0.81 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——12.50%———12.50%
16.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
212.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
36.25%—————6.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+6.25%6.25%12.50%——6.25%31.25%
Total31.25%25.00%37.50%——6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.94 0.94 +2.00
SD 3.42 1.00 3.61
CV 1.16 1.06 —
Max 13 2 +13
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%6.25%6.25%—12.50%31.25%
1—25.00%6.25%6.25%—6.25%43.75%
2———12.50%—6.25%18.75%
3—————6.25%6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total—31.25%12.50%25.00%—31.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 3.44 -2.44
SD 0.89 3.05 3.20
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 3 13 +0
Min 0 1 -13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%——12.50%——18.75%
125.00%12.50%————37.50%
212.50%6.25%————18.75%
3———————
4———————
5+6.25%6.25%—6.25%—6.25%25.00%
Total50.00%25.00%—18.75%—6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 0.75 +0.94
SD 1.99 1.24 2.21
CV 1.18 1.65 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%12.50%———25.00%
1—6.25%6.25%—6.25%6.25%25.00%
2——6.25%———6.25%
312.50%12.50%6.25%———31.25%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+—————6.25%6.25%
Total18.75%31.25%31.25%—6.25%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.62 -0.12
SD 1.51 2.06 2.73
CV 1.00 1.27 —
Max 4 8 +4
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%———12.50%31.25%
112.50%12.50%—6.25%—6.25%37.50%
26.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
3———————
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total31.25%37.50%6.25%6.25%—18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.88 -0.56
SD 1.45 2.36 3.16
CV 1.10 1.26 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%6.25%12.50%——37.50%
112.50%18.75%——6.25%—37.50%
2——6.25%———6.25%
3———————
4———————
5+—6.25%—6.25%—6.25%18.75%
Total18.75%37.50%12.50%18.75%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.38 -0.06
SD 2.36 1.36 2.49
CV 1.80 0.99 —
Max 8 4 +7
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ferencvaros 1659 24 23.28 +0.72 70.0% 16 19 21 23 25 28 29
Budapest TC 1630 22 20.72 +1.28 74.0% 12 16 19 21 23 25 28
MTK Budapest 1565 25 20.50 +4.50 96.0% 15 16 18 21 23 25 27
Budapest Postas 1448 14 16.07 -2.07 29.0% 8 11 14 16 17 21 24
Magyar AC 1398 14 13.13 +0.87 67.0% 7 8 11 13 15 18 19
Muegyetemi 1371 13 16.98 -3.98 11.0% 8 12 15 17 19 22 23
Magyar Uszo Egylet 1336 16 10.98 +5.02 96.0% 3 6 9 11 14 16 17
33FC 1296 12 12.43 -0.43 58.0% 7 8 10 12 14 18 23
Fovarosi TC 1174 4 9.91 -5.91 2.0% 4 5 8 10 11 14 17

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+26.39%
Clear Edge
52.78%20.83%26.39%
Elo Value
Home Edge
174 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0104.37500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.71 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.60+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
18%
MTK Budapest, 2nd of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.33 * Some Luck: 2.33 to 3.49 * Lucky: 3.49 to 4.66 * Wild Swing: 4.66 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.84 * Close: 0.84 to 1.26 * Off: 1.26 to 1.68 * Way Off: 1.68 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.39 points
Some Luck
02.917
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Off
01.052.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
96.00%
MTK Budapest
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
2.00%
Fovarosi TC
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Lopsided
00.150.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 161.13
1.88
Strong Separation
11.61.852.152.75
Interquartile Edge
79%
Wide Edge
50%65.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
94%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Some Drama
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Frequent
0%37%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.52
Notable Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.37
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.35
Weak Carryover
00.450.590.721
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.95
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.87
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.103
Well Within Noise
00.1770.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
MTK Budapest18.00%29.00%26.00%16.00%7.00%4.00%———
Ferencvaros60.00%24.00%14.00%1.00%1.00%————
Budapest TC18.00%32.00%34.00%8.00%6.00%1.00%—1.00%—
Magyar Uszo Egylet——1.00%4.00%8.00%12.00%22.00%26.00%27.00%
Budapest Postas2.00%4.00%9.00%19.00%30.00%24.00%9.00%2.00%1.00%
Magyar AC——2.00%13.00%13.00%23.00%26.00%16.00%7.00%
Muegyetemi1.00%11.00%13.00%31.00%23.00%12.00%7.00%1.00%1.00%
33FC1.00%—1.00%6.00%10.00%16.00%23.00%34.00%9.00%
Fovarosi TC———2.00%2.00%8.00%13.00%20.00%55.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
33FC 100%
Budapest Postas 100%
Budapest TC 100%
Ferencvaros 100%
Fovarosi TC 100%
MTK Budapest 100%
Magyar AC 100%
Magyar Uszo Egylet 100%
Muegyetemi 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1904-02-21 Budapest TC W 2-049.2 1622 1564 63.31% 22.33% 14.36%+0.94 +13.8 2
1904-02-21 @ Ferencvaros L 0-249.2 1564 1622 14.36% 22.33% 63.31%-0.94 -13.8 0
1904-02-21 Magyar Uszo Egylet W 1-034.4 1442 1256 71.08% 21.50% 7.42%+1.67 +4.0 2
1904-02-21 @ MTK Budapest L 0-134.4 1256 1442 7.42% 21.50% 71.08%-1.67 -4.0 0
1904-02-21 33FC W 1-037.0 1460 1333 67.99% 21.93% 10.08%+1.33 +5.3 2
1904-02-21 @ Budapest Postas L 0-137.0 1333 1460 10.08% 21.93% 67.99%-1.33 -5.3 0
1904-02-25 Magyar AC W 8-133.3 1504 1309 71.50% 21.42% 7.08%+1.72 +18.9 2
1904-02-25 @ Muegyetemi L 1-833.3 1309 1504 7.08% 21.42% 71.50%-1.72 -18.9 0
1904-02-28 Fovarosi TC W 13-038.6 1636 1388 73.72% 20.95% 5.34%+2.03 +31.6 4
1904-02-28 @ Ferencvaros L 0-1338.6 1388 1636 5.34% 20.95% 73.72%-2.03 -31.6 0
1904-02-28 Magyar AC L 0-351.1 1465 1290 70.56% 21.58% 7.86%+1.61 -79.7 2
1904-02-28 @ Budapest Postas W 3-051.1 1290 1465 7.86% 21.58% 70.56%-1.61 +79.7 2
1904-02-28 Magyar Uszo Egylet W 6-030.0 1550 1252 75.44% 20.45% 4.11%+2.31 +11.6 2
1904-02-28 @ Budapest TC L 0-630.0 1252 1550 4.11% 20.45% 75.44%-2.31 -11.6 0
1904-03-06 Ferencvaros L 2-549.5 1327 1668 17.82% 21.95% 60.24%-1.35 -17.5 0
1904-03-06 @ 33FC W 5-249.5 1668 1327 60.24% 21.95% 17.82%+1.35 +17.5 6
1904-03-06 Muegyetemi W 1-047.7 1446 1523 49.88% 22.72% 27.40%+0.16 +12.7 4
1904-03-06 @ MTK Budapest L 0-147.7 1523 1446 27.40% 22.72% 49.88%-0.16 -12.7 2
1904-03-06 Budapest TC L 0-344.2 1356 1562 32.56% 22.59% 44.85%-0.58 -39.8 0
1904-03-06 @ Fovarosi TC W 3-044.2 1562 1356 44.85% 22.59% 32.56%+0.58 +39.8 4
1904-03-13 Muegyetemi D 0-051.5 1241 1510 24.74% 22.34% 52.92%-0.95 +2.9 1
1904-03-13 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet D 0-051.5 1510 1241 52.92% 22.34% 24.74%+0.95 -2.9 3
1904-03-13 Ferencvaros W 2-058.3 1386 1685 21.59% 22.19% 56.21%-1.12 +43.2 4
1904-03-13 @ Budapest Postas L 0-258.3 1685 1386 56.21% 22.19% 21.59%+1.12 -43.2 6
1904-03-13 Fovarosi TC W 3-140.1 1310 1316 57.67% 22.58% 19.75%+0.56 +15.8 2
1904-03-13 @ 33FC L 1-340.1 1316 1310 19.75% 22.58% 57.67%-0.56 -15.8 0
1904-03-20 Muegyetemi D 1-166.1 1601 1507 65.89% 22.14% 11.97%+1.14 -5.4 5
1904-03-20 @ Budapest TC D 1-166.1 1507 1601 11.97% 22.14% 65.89%-1.14 +5.4 4
1904-03-20 MTK Budapest L 0-247.9 1370 1459 48.47% 22.73% 28.80%+0.09 -37.9 2
1904-03-20 @ Magyar AC W 2-047.9 1459 1370 28.80% 22.73% 48.47%-0.09 +37.9 6
1904-03-20 Fovarosi TC W 1-035.8 1429 1300 68.06% 21.92% 10.02%+1.34 +5.3 6
1904-03-20 @ Budapest Postas L 0-135.8 1300 1429 10.02% 21.92% 68.06%-1.34 -5.3 0
1904-03-25 Magyar AC W 2-142.8 1596 1332 74.29% 20.79% 4.92%+2.12 +2.5 7
1904-03-25 @ Budapest TC L 1-242.8 1332 1596 4.92% 20.79% 74.29%-2.12 -2.5 2
1904-03-25 Magyar Uszo Egylet D 1-154.1 1434 1243 71.31% 21.46% 7.23%+1.70 -6.6 7
1904-03-25 @ Budapest Postas D 1-154.1 1243 1434 7.23% 21.46% 71.31%-1.70 +6.6 2
1904-03-27 33FC W 1-036.9 1496 1326 70.35% 21.62% 8.03%+1.58 +4.3 8
1904-03-27 @ MTK Budapest L 0-136.9 1326 1496 8.03% 21.62% 70.35%-1.58 -4.3 2
1904-03-31 33FC W 3-140.9 1598 1321 74.75% 20.66% 4.58%+2.19 +4.0 9
1904-03-31 @ Budapest TC L 1-340.9 1321 1598 4.58% 20.66% 74.75%-2.19 -4.0 2
1904-04-10 Budapest Postas W 1-043.8 1603 1428 70.56% 21.58% 7.85%+1.61 +4.2 11
1904-04-10 @ Budapest TC L 0-143.8 1428 1603 7.85% 21.58% 70.56%-1.61 -4.2 7
1904-04-10 MTK Budapest W 3-044.9 1642 1501 68.79% 21.84% 9.38%+1.41 +13.6 8
1904-04-10 @ Ferencvaros L 0-344.9 1501 1642 9.38% 21.84% 68.79%-1.41 -13.6 8
1904-04-11 Magyar AC W 2-038.1 1250 1330 49.59% 22.72% 27.69%+0.14 +24.1 4
1904-04-11 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet L 0-238.1 1330 1250 27.69% 22.72% 49.59%-0.14 -24.1 2
1904-04-17 Muegyetemi W 1-048.1 1317 1513 33.92% 22.62% 43.47%-0.52 +18.3 4
1904-04-17 @ 33FC L 0-148.1 1513 1317 43.47% 22.62% 33.92%+0.52 -18.3 4
1904-04-17 Magyar Uszo Egylet W 1-037.9 1655 1274 77.84% 19.51% 2.64%+2.79 +1.4 10
1904-04-17 @ Ferencvaros L 0-137.9 1274 1655 2.64% 19.51% 77.84%-2.79 -1.4 4
1904-04-24 Magyar AC W 4-140.2 1657 1306 77.04% 19.86% 3.09%+2.62 +3.8 12
1904-04-24 @ Ferencvaros L 1-440.2 1306 1657 3.09% 19.86% 77.04%-2.62 -3.8 2
1904-04-24 Budapest TC W 2-157.8 1487 1607 44.45% 22.73% 32.82%-0.09 +13.8 10
1904-04-24 @ MTK Budapest L 1-257.8 1607 1487 32.82% 22.73% 44.45%+0.09 -13.8 11
1904-04-24 Fovarosi TC W 6-341.4 1494 1295 71.71% 21.38% 6.91%+1.75 +6.9 6
1904-04-24 @ Muegyetemi L 3-641.4 1295 1494 6.91% 21.38% 71.71%-1.75 -6.9 0
1904-05-01 33FC D 2-257.2 1273 1336 51.58% 22.70% 25.71%+0.24 -1.8 5
1904-05-01 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet D 2-257.2 1336 1273 25.71% 22.70% 51.58%-0.24 +1.8 5
1904-05-01 Budapest Postas D 0-056.1 1501 1423 64.75% 22.23% 13.02%+1.05 -5.7 11
1904-05-01 @ MTK Budapest D 0-056.1 1423 1501 13.02% 22.23% 64.75%-1.05 +5.7 8
1904-05-04 Ferencvaros FL55.5 1302 1661 16.26% 21.82% 61.93%-1.46 +0.0 2
1904-05-04 @ Magyar AC FW55.5 1661 1302 61.93% 21.82% 16.26%+1.46 +0.0 14
1904-05-04 Budapest Postas W 1-042.0 1501 1429 64.37% 22.26% 13.37%+1.02 +6.9 8
1904-05-04 @ Muegyetemi L 0-142.0 1429 1501 13.37% 22.26% 64.37%-1.02 -6.9 8
1904-05-08 MTK Budapest L 0-241.9 1288 1495 32.37% 22.59% 45.04%-0.59 -27.3 0
1904-05-08 @ Fovarosi TC W 2-041.9 1495 1288 45.04% 22.59% 32.37%+0.59 +27.3 13
1904-05-12 Muegyetemi W 2-046.9 1661 1508 69.40% 21.75% 8.84%+1.48 +8.9 16
1904-05-12 @ Ferencvaros L 0-246.9 1508 1661 8.84% 21.75% 69.40%-1.48 -8.9 8
1904-05-22 Fovarosi TC W 5-031.9 1271 1261 59.23% 22.53% 18.25%+0.66 +39.9 7
1904-05-22 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet L 0-531.9 1261 1271 18.25% 22.53% 59.23%-0.66 -39.9 0
1904-05-24 33FC W 4-034.5 1302 1337 54.63% 22.66% 22.71%+0.39 +38.9 4
1904-05-24 @ Magyar AC L 0-434.5 1337 1302 22.71% 22.66% 54.63%-0.39 -38.9 5
1904-05-29 Magyar AC L 2-352.6 1221 1341 44.46% 22.73% 32.81%-0.09 -16.7 0
1904-05-29 @ Fovarosi TC W 3-252.6 1341 1221 32.81% 22.73% 44.46%+0.09 +16.7 6
1904-09-18 33FC L 1-265.7 1669 1299 77.58% 19.63% 2.79%+2.73 -30.0 16
1904-09-18 @ Ferencvaros W 2-165.7 1299 1669 2.79% 19.63% 77.58%-2.73 +30.0 7
1904-09-18 Budapest Postas W 3-144.1 1357 1422 51.35% 22.70% 25.95%+0.23 +19.8 8
1904-09-18 @ Magyar AC L 1-344.1 1422 1357 25.95% 22.70% 51.35%-0.23 -19.8 8
1904-09-18 Fovarosi TC D 1-156.7 1593 1204 78.03% 19.43% 2.54%+2.83 -7.9 12
1904-09-18 @ Budapest TC D 1-156.7 1204 1593 2.54% 19.43% 78.03%-2.83 +7.9 1
1904-09-18 MTK Budapest L 0-639.7 1311 1522 31.77% 22.57% 45.66%-0.62 -74.7 7
1904-09-18 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet W 6-039.7 1522 1311 45.66% 22.57% 31.77%+0.62 +74.6 15
1904-09-25 MTK Budapest L 3-553.7 1329 1597 24.86% 22.35% 52.79%-0.94 -16.1 7
1904-09-25 @ 33FC W 5-353.7 1597 1329 52.79% 22.35% 24.86%+0.94 +16.1 17
1904-09-25 Budapest TC L 1-254.8 1402 1585 35.65% 22.65% 41.70%-0.45 -14.7 8
1904-09-25 @ Budapest Postas W 2-154.8 1585 1402 41.70% 22.65% 35.65%+0.45 +14.7 14
1904-09-25 Magyar Uszo Egylet L 1-251.6 1212 1236 55.89% 22.63% 21.48%+0.46 -21.6 1
1904-09-25 @ Fovarosi TC W 2-151.6 1236 1212 21.48% 22.63% 55.89%-0.46 +21.6 9
1904-10-02 Budapest Postas L 2-349.5 1191 1388 33.71% 22.61% 43.68%-0.53 -13.4 1
1904-10-02 @ Fovarosi TC W 3-249.5 1388 1191 43.68% 22.61% 33.71%+0.53 +13.4 10
1904-10-02 Muegyetemi W 3-043.1 1377 1499 44.09% 22.73% 33.19%-0.10 +40.5 10
1904-10-02 @ Magyar AC L 0-343.1 1499 1377 33.19% 22.73% 44.09%+0.10 -40.5 8
1904-10-02 Ferencvaros D 1-169.5 1613 1639 55.64% 22.63% 21.72%+0.45 -3.2 18
1904-10-02 @ MTK Budapest D 1-169.5 1639 1613 21.72% 22.63% 55.64%-0.45 +3.2 17
1904-10-15 Budapest Postas W 1-041.4 1312 1401 48.47% 22.73% 28.80%+0.09 +13.2 9
1904-10-15 @ 33FC L 0-141.4 1401 1312 28.80% 22.73% 48.47%-0.09 -13.2 10
1904-10-16 Ferencvaros L 1-738.5 1258 1643 14.31% 21.62% 64.07%-1.61 -31.1 9
1904-10-16 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet W 7-138.5 1643 1258 64.07% 21.62% 14.31%+1.61 +31.1 19
1904-10-16 Magyar AC W 1-043.5 1610 1418 71.39% 21.44% 7.16%+1.71 +3.8 20
1904-10-16 @ MTK Budapest L 0-143.5 1418 1610 7.16% 21.44% 71.39%-1.71 -3.8 10
1904-10-16 Budapest Postas W 2-147.5 1674 1388 75.06% 20.57% 4.37%+2.24 +2.2 21
1904-10-16 @ Ferencvaros L 1-247.5 1388 1674 4.37% 20.57% 75.06%-2.24 -2.2 10
1904-10-16 Budapest TC D 1-164.3 1459 1600 41.55% 22.72% 35.74%-0.21 -0.5 9
1904-10-16 @ Muegyetemi D 1-164.3 1600 1459 35.74% 22.72% 41.55%+0.21 +0.5 15
1904-10-23 Magyar Uszo Egylet W 3-136.2 1414 1227 71.14% 21.49% 7.37%+1.68 +6.5 12
1904-10-23 @ Magyar AC L 1-336.2 1227 1414 7.37% 21.49% 71.14%-1.68 -6.5 9
1904-10-23 Muegyetemi D 1-153.5 1177 1458 23.50% 22.29% 54.21%-1.02 +2.9 2
1904-10-23 @ Fovarosi TC D 1-153.5 1458 1177 54.21% 22.29% 23.50%+1.02 -2.9 10
1904-10-23 MTK Budapest D 1-168.8 1600 1614 56.94% 22.60% 20.46%+0.52 -3.4 16
1904-10-23 @ Budapest TC D 1-168.8 1614 1600 20.46% 22.60% 56.94%-0.52 +3.4 21
1904-10-30 MTK Budapest FL59.3 1456 1617 38.59% 22.69% 38.72%-0.33 +0.0 10
1904-10-30 @ Muegyetemi FW59.3 1617 1456 38.72% 22.69% 38.59%+0.33 +0.0 23
1904-10-30 Budapest Postas W 1-043.4 1220 1386 38.09% 22.68% 39.23%-0.35 +16.8 11
1904-10-30 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet L 0-143.4 1386 1220 39.23% 22.68% 38.09%+0.35 -16.8 10
1904-10-30 33FC D 1-152.6 1180 1326 40.91% 22.71% 36.38%-0.24 -0.4 3
1904-10-30 @ Fovarosi TC D 1-152.6 1326 1180 36.38% 22.71% 40.91%+0.24 +0.4 10
1904-10-30 Budapest TC L 0-152.3 1420 1597 36.49% 22.66% 40.84%-0.42 -15.9 12
1904-10-30 @ Magyar AC W 1-052.3 1597 1420 40.84% 22.66% 36.49%+0.42 +15.9 18
1904-11-06 Budapest TC W 1-054.3 1237 1613 14.98% 21.69% 63.33%-1.56 +25.8 13
1904-11-06 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet L 0-154.3 1613 1237 63.33% 21.69% 14.98%+1.56 -25.8 18
1904-11-06 33FC W 1-036.7 1456 1326 68.13% 21.91% 9.96%+1.34 +5.2 12
1904-11-06 @ Muegyetemi L 0-136.7 1326 1456 9.96% 21.91% 68.13%-1.34 -5.3 10
1904-11-06 Ferencvaros L 2-541.4 1180 1676 8.13% 20.62% 71.25%-2.25 -8.5 3
1904-11-06 @ Fovarosi TC W 5-241.4 1676 1180 71.25% 20.62% 8.13%+2.25 +8.5 23
1904-11-13 Magyar Uszo Egylet D 1-153.1 1321 1263 63.28% 22.33% 14.39%+0.93 -4.8 11
1904-11-13 @ 33FC D 1-153.1 1263 1321 14.39% 22.33% 63.28%-0.93 +4.8 14
1904-11-13 Fovarosi TC D 1-153.4 1404 1171 73.12% 21.09% 5.79%+1.94 -7.0 13
1904-11-13 @ Magyar AC D 1-153.4 1171 1404 5.79% 21.09% 73.12%-1.94 +7.0 4
1904-11-13 Ferencvaros D 2-271.2 1461 1684 30.21% 22.53% 47.26%-0.69 +1.1 13
1904-11-13 @ Muegyetemi D 2-271.2 1684 1461 47.26% 22.53% 30.21%+0.69 -1.1 24
1904-11-13 MTK Budapest W 3-052.0 1369 1617 27.16% 22.44% 50.41%-0.83 +56.8 12
1904-11-13 @ Budapest Postas L 0-352.0 1617 1369 50.41% 22.44% 27.16%+0.83 -56.8 23
1904-11-20 Budapest TC L 1-346.9 1316 1587 24.60% 22.34% 53.06%-0.96 -18.9 11
1904-11-20 @ 33FC W 3-146.9 1587 1316 53.06% 22.34% 24.60%+0.96 +18.9 20
1904-11-20 Ferencvaros W 2-055.2 1606 1683 49.83% 22.72% 27.45%+0.15 +24.0 22
1904-11-20 @ Budapest TC L 0-255.2 1683 1606 27.45% 22.72% 49.83%-0.15 -24.0 24
1904-11-20 Fovarosi TC W 5-132.4 1561 1178 77.87% 19.50% 2.63%+2.80 +4.2 25
1904-11-20 @ MTK Budapest L 1-532.4 1178 1561 2.63% 19.50% 77.87%-2.80 -4.2 4
1904-11-20 Magyar Uszo Egylet L 1-454.9 1462 1268 71.48% 21.43% 7.10%+1.72 -68.1 13
1904-11-20 @ Muegyetemi W 4-154.9 1268 1462 7.10% 21.43% 71.48%-1.72 +68.1 16
1904-11-27 Magyar AC D 2-258.0 1297 1397 46.99% 22.73% 30.27%+0.02 -1.1 12
1904-11-27 @ 33FC D 2-258.0 1397 1297 30.27% 22.73% 46.99%-0.02 +1.1 14
1904-11-27 Muegyetemi W 3-036.4 1426 1394 61.15% 22.45% 16.41%+0.78 +22.6 14
1904-11-27 @ Budapest Postas L 0-336.4 1394 1426 16.41% 22.45% 61.15%-0.78 -22.6 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1904-09-18 2.79% 33FC 1299 2 @ Ferencvaros 1669 1
2 1904-11-20 7.10% Magyar Uszo Egylet 1268 4 @ Muegyetemi 1462 1
3 1904-02-28 7.86% Magyar AC 1290 3 @ Budapest Postas 1465 0
4 1904-11-06 14.98% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 1237 1 Budapest TC 1613 0
5 1904-09-25 21.48% Magyar Uszo Egylet 1236 2 @ Fovarosi TC 1212 1
6 1904-03-13 21.59% @ Budapest Postas 1386 2 Ferencvaros 1685 0
7 1904-11-13 27.16% @ Budapest Postas 1369 3 MTK Budapest 1617 0
8 1904-03-20 28.80% MTK Budapest 1459 2 @ Magyar AC 1370 0
9 1904-05-29 32.81% Magyar AC 1341 3 @ Fovarosi TC 1221 2
10 1904-04-17 33.92% @ 33FC 1317 1 Muegyetemi 1513 0
11 1904-10-30 38.09% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 1220 1 Budapest Postas 1386 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1904-02-28 79.66 Magyar AC 3 1290 7.86% @ Budapest Postas 0 1465 70.56% 21.58%
2 1904-09-18 74.65 MTK Budapest 6 1522 45.66% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1311 31.77% 22.57%
3 1904-11-20 68.09 Magyar Uszo Egylet 4 1268 7.10% @ Muegyetemi 1 1462 71.48% 21.43%
4 1904-11-13 56.80 @ Budapest Postas 3 1369 27.16% MTK Budapest 0 1617 50.41% 22.44%
5 1904-03-13 43.24 @ Budapest Postas 2 1386 21.59% Ferencvaros 0 1685 56.21% 22.19%
6 1904-10-02 40.49 @ Magyar AC 3 1377 44.09% Muegyetemi 0 1499 33.19% 22.73%
7 1904-05-22 39.86 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 5 1271 59.23% Fovarosi TC 0 1261 18.25% 22.53%
8 1904-03-06 39.81 Budapest TC 3 1562 44.85% @ Fovarosi TC 0 1356 32.56% 22.59%
9 1904-05-24 38.93 @ Magyar AC 4 1302 54.63% 33FC 0 1337 22.71% 22.66%
10 1904-03-20 37.87 MTK Budapest 2 1459 28.80% @ Magyar AC 0 1370 48.47% 22.73%
11 1904-02-28 31.63 @ Ferencvaros 13 1636 73.72% Fovarosi TC 0 1388 5.34% 20.95%
12 1904-10-16 31.13 Ferencvaros 7 1643 64.07% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 1 1258 14.31% 21.62%
13 1904-09-18 29.99 33FC 2 1299 2.79% @ Ferencvaros 1 1669 77.58% 19.63%
14 1904-05-08 27.29 MTK Budapest 2 1495 45.04% @ Fovarosi TC 0 1288 32.37% 22.59%
15 1904-11-06 25.78 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 1 1237 14.98% Budapest TC 0 1613 63.33% 21.69%
16 1904-04-11 24.14 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 2 1250 49.59% Magyar AC 0 1330 27.69% 22.72%
17 1904-11-20 23.96 @ Budapest TC 2 1606 49.83% Ferencvaros 0 1683 27.45% 22.72%
18 1904-11-27 22.59 @ Budapest Postas 3 1426 61.15% Muegyetemi 0 1394 16.41% 22.45%
19 1904-09-25 21.60 Magyar Uszo Egylet 2 1236 21.48% @ Fovarosi TC 1 1212 55.89% 22.63%
20 1904-09-18 19.83 @ Magyar AC 3 1357 51.35% Budapest Postas 1 1422 25.95% 22.70%
21 1904-02-25 18.94 @ Muegyetemi 8 1504 71.50% Magyar AC 1 1309 7.08% 21.42%
22 1904-11-20 18.88 Budapest TC 3 1587 53.06% @ 33FC 1 1316 24.60% 22.34%
23 1904-04-17 18.27 @ 33FC 1 1317 33.92% Muegyetemi 0 1513 43.47% 22.62%
24 1904-03-06 17.53 Ferencvaros 5 1668 60.24% @ 33FC 2 1327 17.82% 21.95%
25 1904-10-30 16.84 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 1 1220 38.09% Budapest Postas 0 1386 39.23% 22.68%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1904-11-13 71.2 @ Muegyetemi 2 1461 30.21% Ferencvaros 2 1684 47.26% 22.53%
2 1904-10-02 69.5 @ MTK Budapest 1 1613 55.64% Ferencvaros 1 1639 21.72% 22.63%
3 1904-10-23 68.8 @ Budapest TC 1 1600 56.94% MTK Budapest 1 1614 20.46% 22.60%
4 1904-03-20 66.1 @ Budapest TC 1 1601 65.89% Muegyetemi 1 1507 11.97% 22.14%
5 1904-09-18 65.7 33FC 2 1299 2.79% @ Ferencvaros 1 1669 77.58% 19.63%
6 1904-10-16 64.3 @ Muegyetemi 1 1459 41.55% Budapest TC 1 1600 35.74% 22.72%
7 1904-03-13 58.3 @ Budapest Postas 2 1386 21.59% Ferencvaros 0 1685 56.21% 22.19%
8 1904-11-27 58.0 @ 33FC 2 1297 46.99% Magyar AC 2 1397 30.27% 22.73%
9 1904-04-24 57.8 @ MTK Budapest 2 1487 44.45% Budapest TC 1 1607 32.82% 22.73%
10 1904-05-01 57.2 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 2 1273 51.58% 33FC 2 1336 25.71% 22.70%
11 1904-09-18 56.7 @ Budapest TC 1 1593 78.03% Fovarosi TC 1 1204 2.54% 19.43%
12 1904-05-01 56.1 @ MTK Budapest 0 1501 64.75% Budapest Postas 0 1423 13.02% 22.23%
13 1904-11-20 55.2 @ Budapest TC 2 1606 49.83% Ferencvaros 0 1683 27.45% 22.72%
14 1904-11-20 54.9 Magyar Uszo Egylet 4 1268 7.10% @ Muegyetemi 1 1462 71.48% 21.43%
15 1904-09-25 54.8 Budapest TC 2 1585 41.70% @ Budapest Postas 1 1402 35.65% 22.65%
16 1904-11-06 54.3 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 1 1237 14.98% Budapest TC 0 1613 63.33% 21.69%
17 1904-03-25 54.1 @ Budapest Postas 1 1434 71.31% Magyar Uszo Egylet 1 1243 7.23% 21.46%
18 1904-09-25 53.7 MTK Budapest 5 1597 52.79% @ 33FC 3 1329 24.86% 22.35%
19 1904-10-23 53.5 @ Fovarosi TC 1 1177 23.50% Muegyetemi 1 1458 54.21% 22.29%
20 1904-11-13 53.4 @ Magyar AC 1 1404 73.12% Fovarosi TC 1 1171 5.79% 21.09%
21 1904-11-13 53.1 @ 33FC 1 1321 63.28% Magyar Uszo Egylet 1 1263 14.39% 22.33%
22 1904-05-29 52.6 Magyar AC 3 1341 32.81% @ Fovarosi TC 2 1221 44.46% 22.73%
23 1904-10-30 52.6 @ Fovarosi TC 1 1180 40.91% 33FC 1 1326 36.38% 22.71%
24 1904-10-30 52.3 Budapest TC 1 1597 40.84% @ Magyar AC 0 1420 36.49% 22.66%
25 1904-11-13 52.0 @ Budapest Postas 3 1369 27.16% MTK Budapest 0 1617 50.41% 22.44%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1904-02-28 30.0 @ Budapest TC 6 1550 75.44% Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1252 4.11% 20.45%
2 1904-05-22 31.9 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 5 1271 59.23% Fovarosi TC 0 1261 18.25% 22.53%
3 1904-11-20 32.4 @ MTK Budapest 5 1561 77.87% Fovarosi TC 1 1178 2.63% 19.50%
4 1904-02-25 33.3 @ Muegyetemi 8 1504 71.50% Magyar AC 1 1309 7.08% 21.42%
5 1904-02-21 34.4 @ MTK Budapest 1 1442 71.08% Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1256 7.42% 21.50%
6 1904-05-24 34.5 @ Magyar AC 4 1302 54.63% 33FC 0 1337 22.71% 22.66%
7 1904-03-20 35.8 @ Budapest Postas 1 1429 68.06% Fovarosi TC 0 1300 10.02% 21.92%
8 1904-10-23 36.2 @ Magyar AC 3 1414 71.14% Magyar Uszo Egylet 1 1227 7.37% 21.49%
9 1904-11-27 36.4 @ Budapest Postas 3 1426 61.15% Muegyetemi 0 1394 16.41% 22.45%
10 1904-11-06 36.7 @ Muegyetemi 1 1456 68.13% 33FC 0 1326 9.96% 21.91%
11 1904-03-27 36.9 @ MTK Budapest 1 1496 70.35% 33FC 0 1326 8.03% 21.62%
12 1904-02-21 37.0 @ Budapest Postas 1 1460 67.99% 33FC 0 1333 10.08% 21.93%
13 1904-04-17 37.9 @ Ferencvaros 1 1655 77.84% Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1274 2.64% 19.51%
14 1904-04-11 38.1 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 2 1250 49.59% Magyar AC 0 1330 27.69% 22.72%
15 1904-10-16 38.5 Ferencvaros 7 1643 64.07% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 1 1258 14.31% 21.62%
16 1904-02-28 38.6 @ Ferencvaros 13 1636 73.72% Fovarosi TC 0 1388 5.34% 20.95%
17 1904-09-18 39.7 MTK Budapest 6 1522 45.66% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1311 31.77% 22.57%
18 1904-03-13 40.1 @ 33FC 3 1310 57.67% Fovarosi TC 1 1316 19.75% 22.58%
19 1904-04-24 40.2 @ Ferencvaros 4 1657 77.04% Magyar AC 1 1306 3.09% 19.86%
20 1904-03-31 40.9 @ Budapest TC 3 1598 74.75% 33FC 1 1321 4.58% 20.66%
21 1904-04-24 41.4 @ Muegyetemi 6 1494 71.71% Fovarosi TC 3 1295 6.91% 21.38%
22 1904-10-15 41.4 @ 33FC 1 1312 48.47% Budapest Postas 0 1401 28.80% 22.73%
23 1904-11-06 41.4 Ferencvaros 5 1676 71.25% @ Fovarosi TC 2 1180 8.13% 20.62%
24 1904-05-08 41.9 MTK Budapest 2 1495 45.04% @ Fovarosi TC 0 1288 32.37% 22.59%
25 1904-05-04 42.0 @ Muegyetemi 1 1501 64.37% Budapest Postas 0 1429 13.37% 22.26%