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1905 I. Osztály Season

72 games

Final

Champion

Ferencvaros

26 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1903

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Budapest Postas

6.17 points above expected

26 points · 19.83 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Magyar Uszo Egylet

4.67 points below expected

6 points · 10.67 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ferencvaros Champion 16 11 4 1 26 54 12 +42 25.35 +0.65
2 Budapest Postas 16 11 4 1 26 33 9 +24 19.83 +6.17
3 MTK Budapest 16 10 3 3 23 55 11 +44 21.63 +1.37
4 Ujpest 16 8 2 6 18 35 22 +13 17.96 +0.04
5 Magyar AC 16 8 1 7 17 40 19 +21 17.26 -0.26
6 Fovarosi TC 16 4 4 8 12 29 30 -1 13.11 -1.11
7 33FC 16 5 2 9 12 15 42 -27 11.56 +0.44
8 Magyar Uszo Egylet 16 2 2 12 6 13 65 -52 10.67 -4.67
9 Muegyetemi 16 1 0 15 2 6 70 -64 6.63 -4.63

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Budapest Postas 26 19.83 +6.17
2 MTK Budapest 23 21.63 +1.37
3 Ferencvaros 26 25.35 +0.65
4 33FC 12 11.56 +0.44
5 Ujpest 18 17.96 +0.04

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Magyar Uszo Egylet 6 10.67 -4.67
2 Muegyetemi 2 6.63 -4.63
3 Fovarosi TC 12 13.11 -1.11
4 Magyar AC 17 17.26 -0.26
5 Ujpest 18 17.96 +0.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 33FC 2 Nov 19 – Nov 30 1 in 668
2 Budapest Postas 6 Oct 8 – Nov 30 1 in 43
3 Fovarosi TC 2 Sep 24 – Oct 8 1 in 15
4 Magyar Uszo Egylet 2 Nov 26 – Nov 30 1 in 15
5 Ferencvaros 4 Feb 19 – Mar 25 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Muegyetemi 12 May 4 – Nov 30 1 in 124
2 Magyar Uszo Egylet 7 Mar 25 – Sep 24 1 in 39
3 Ferencvaros 1 Nov 19 – Nov 19 1 in 27
4 Ujpest 2 Mar 25 – Apr 2 1 in 9
5 Magyar AC 3 Oct 15 – Nov 1 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Budapest Postas 16 Feb 26 – Nov 30 1 in 571
2 Ferencvaros 13 Feb 19 – Nov 5 1 in 12
3 33FC 3 Mar 25 – Apr 23 1 in 7
4 Fovarosi TC 3 Feb 26 – Mar 19 1 in 6
5 Ujpest 5 Sep 24 – Nov 19 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ferencvaros 3 Nov 5 – Nov 26 1 in 35
2 Magyar Uszo Egylet 14 Feb 26 – Nov 5 1 in 31
3 Fovarosi TC 7 Mar 5 – Sep 17 1 in 18
4 Muegyetemi 12 May 4 – Nov 30 1 in 7
5 Ujpest 3 Mar 12 – Apr 2 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Budapest Postas 1722 22 +88 9 5.4 +3.6
Ferencvaros 1774 22 -4 6 7.7 -1.7
MTK Budapest 1733 21 +37 8 6.9 +1.1
Magyar AC 1594 17 -33 2 4.7 -2.7
Ujpest 1626 16 +56 7 5.6 +1.4
Fovarosi TC 1428 12 +31 5 5.2 -0.2
33FC 1332 10 +20 5 3.3 +1.7
Magyar Uszo Egylet 1247 4 -6 3 2.1 +0.9
Muegyetemi 1153 2 -190 0 2.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 33F BP FER FT MB MA MUE MUE UJP
33FC —
0-0-2
0.80
1-0-1
0.77
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
1.37
0-0-2
2.01
1-1-0
3.36
2-0-0
3.71
1-0-1
1.21
Budapest Postas
2-0-0
4.85
 —
0-2-0
1.76
0-2-0
3.97
1-1-0
2.15
2-0-0
3.25
2-0-0
4.05
2-0-0
4.58
2-0-0
3.09
Ferencvaros
1-0-1
4.89
0-2-0
3.87
 —
1-1-0
4.69
1-1-0
3.19
2-0-0
3.95
2-0-0
5.03
2-0-0
4.99
2-0-0
3.89
Fovarosi TC
1-1-0
3.10
0-2-0
1.66
0-1-1
0.96
 —
0-0-2
1.05
1-0-1
1.98
0-1-1
3.89
2-0-0
3.15
0-0-2
2.30
MTK Budapest
2-0-0
4.27
0-1-1
3.48
0-1-1
2.44
2-0-0
4.60
 —
1-0-1
3.83
2-0-0
4.91
2-0-0
4.71
1-1-0
3.71
Magyar AC
2-0-0
3.62
0-0-2
2.38
0-0-2
1.69
1-0-1
3.65
1-0-1
1.80
 —
2-0-0
4.32
2-0-0
4.20
0-1-1
2.57
Magyar Uszo Egylet
0-1-1
2.27
0-0-2
1.59
0-0-2
0.63
1-1-0
1.75
0-0-2
0.75
0-0-2
1.32
 —
1-0-1
3.49
0-0-2
1.60
Muegyetemi
0-0-2
1.92
0-0-2
1.07
0-0-2
0.68
0-0-2
2.48
0-0-2
0.93
0-0-2
1.44
1-0-1
2.14
 —
0-0-2
1.07
Ujpest
1-0-1
4.44
0-0-2
2.54
0-0-2
1.74
2-0-0
3.33
0-1-1
1.92
1-1-0
3.06
2-0-0
4.03
2-0-0
4.58
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +4.3
Allowed 0.91 -3.5
Differential 0.90 +2.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%2.78%4.86%3.47%1.39%9.03%25.69%
12.78%5.56%4.86%4.17%—2.78%20.14%
24.86%4.86%2.78%0.69%—1.39%14.58%
33.47%4.17%0.69%2.78%0.69%—11.81%
41.39%——0.69%——2.08%
5+9.03%2.78%1.39%——12.50%25.69%
Total25.69%20.14%14.58%11.81%2.08%25.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.82 +0.00
SD 2.84 2.84 4.33
CV 1.56 1.56 —
Max 15 15 +14
Min -1 -1 -14

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—6.25%6.25%—18.75%37.50%
1——6.25%6.25%—6.25%18.75%
26.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
3—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
4———————
5+—————12.50%12.50%
Total12.50%12.50%25.00%12.50%—37.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 2.50 -1.69
SD 1.28 2.73 3.07
CV 1.57 1.09 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%—————12.50%
16.25%12.50%————18.75%
26.25%12.50%————18.75%
36.25%—————6.25%
4———6.25%——6.25%
5+12.50%—6.25%——18.75%37.50%
Total43.75%25.00%6.25%6.25%—18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 0.38 +1.50
SD 2.39 1.09 2.07
CV 1.28 2.90 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min -1 -1 +0

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—————6.25%
1—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
212.50%—6.25%———18.75%
312.50%12.50%—6.25%——31.25%
4———————
5+12.50%—6.25%——12.50%31.25%
Total43.75%18.75%18.75%6.25%—12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.25 0.62 +2.62
SD 4.14 1.15 4.27
CV 1.27 1.84 —
Max 14 3 +14
Min -1 -1 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%—6.25%6.25%6.25%37.50%
16.25%——6.25%—6.25%18.75%
2———————
3———12.50%——12.50%
4———————
5+12.50%6.25%———12.50%31.25%
Total31.25%12.50%—25.00%6.25%25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.75 -0.06
SD 2.77 2.32 3.80
CV 1.64 1.33 —
Max 8 7 +8
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%————6.25%
1—12.50%6.25%———18.75%
26.25%12.50%6.25%———25.00%
36.25%—————6.25%
4———————
5+18.75%12.50%———12.50%43.75%
Total31.25%43.75%12.50%——12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.31 0.56 +2.75
SD 4.11 0.89 4.09
CV 1.24 1.59 —
Max 15 2 +14
Min -1 -1 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
112.50%6.25%12.50%12.50%——43.75%
212.50%6.25%————18.75%
3————6.25%—6.25%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+12.50%—————12.50%
Total43.75%18.75%18.75%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.19 +1.31
SD 3.12 1.33 3.81
CV 1.25 1.12 —
Max 11 4 +11
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%—12.50%6.25%31.25%56.25%
1——6.25%———6.25%
2——6.25%6.25%—6.25%18.75%
3—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
4———————
5+—————6.25%6.25%
Total—12.50%12.50%25.00%6.25%43.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 4.00 -3.25
SD 1.24 3.22 3.70
CV 1.65 0.81 —
Max 3 12 +2
Min -1 -1 -12

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——12.50%6.25%—25.00%43.75%
1———6.25%—12.50%18.75%
2———————
36.25%—————6.25%
4———————
5+—————31.25%31.25%
Total6.25%—12.50%12.50%—68.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.06 4.06 -4.00
SD 1.06 5.46 5.24
CV 17.00 1.34 —
Max 3 15 +3
Min -1 -1 -14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——18.75%———18.75%
1—12.50%6.25%6.25%——25.00%
2—6.25%———6.25%12.50%
3—12.50%————12.50%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+12.50%6.25%———6.25%25.00%
Total18.75%37.50%25.00%6.25%—12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.12 1.31 +0.81
SD 2.22 1.40 2.90
CV 1.04 1.07 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ferencvaros 1774 26 25.35 +0.65 67.0% 18 21 24 25 27 29 30
MTK Budapest 1733 23 21.63 +1.37 75.0% 14 16 20 22 23 26 29
Budapest Postas 1722 26 19.83 +6.17 97.0% 12 14 18 20 22 25 29
Ujpest 1626 18 17.96 +0.04 56.0% 10 12 16 18 20 23 26
Magyar AC 1594 17 17.26 -0.26 55.0% 9 11 15 17 19 23 27
Fovarosi TC 1428 12 13.11 -1.11 50.0% 6 8 11 12 15 18 23
33FC 1332 12 11.56 +0.44 58.0% 4 6 9 12 14 16 19
Magyar Uszo Egylet 1247 6 10.67 -4.67 11.0% 4 6 9 10 13 15 18
Muegyetemi 1153 2 6.63 -4.63 4.0% 2 3 4 6 8 11 13

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-8.33%
No Edge
37.50%16.67%45.83%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -29.02 Elo pts.
97 Elo
0.010 goals per Elo point
0250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.83 goals
Road-Tilted
-2-0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
78%
Ferencvaros, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.44 * Some Luck: 2.44 to 3.66 * Lucky: 3.66 to 4.88 * Wild Swing: 4.88 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.69 * Close: 0.69 to 1.04 * Off: 1.04 to 1.38 * Way Off: 1.38 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.07 points
Some Luck
03.058
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.22
Pinpoint
00.862
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
97.00%
Budapest Postas
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
4.00%
Muegyetemi
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.29
Lopsided
00.150.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 228.84
2.33
Wide Separation
11.61.852.152.75
Interquartile Edge
90%
Wide Edge
50%65.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
46%
Few
0%27%100%
Blowouts
Expected
36%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.47
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.48
Notable Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.77
Near-Lock
00.450.590.721
Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Chalky
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.28 * Above Noise: 0.28 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.51
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.19
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.159
Well Within Noise
00.1840.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Ferencvaros78.00%17.00%4.00%—1.00%————
Budapest Postas7.00%20.00%28.00%28.00%11.00%4.00%2.00%——
MTK Budapest11.00%42.00%29.00%14.00%3.00%1.00%———
Ujpest3.00%9.00%17.00%27.00%30.00%10.00%2.00%2.00%—
Magyar AC1.00%10.00%18.00%24.00%23.00%17.00%5.00%2.00%—
Fovarosi TC—2.00%4.00%3.00%16.00%31.00%27.00%13.00%4.00%
33FC———3.00%9.00%24.00%31.00%22.00%11.00%
Magyar Uszo Egylet———1.00%7.00%11.00%31.00%31.00%19.00%
Muegyetemi—————2.00%2.00%30.00%66.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
33FC 100%
Budapest Postas 100%
Ferencvaros 100%
Fovarosi TC 100%
MTK Budapest 100%
Magyar AC 100%
Magyar Uszo Egylet 100%
Muegyetemi 100%
Ujpest 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1905-02-19 Ujpest W 2-054.7 1642 1559 51.98% 18.46% 29.56%+0.56 +23.7 2
1905-02-19 @ Ferencvaros L 0-254.7 1559 1642 29.56% 18.46% 51.98%-0.56 -23.7 0
1905-02-19 33FC W 2-151.0 1503 1446 48.62% 18.49% 32.88%+0.29 +13.0 2
1905-02-19 @ Magyar AC L 1-251.0 1446 1503 32.88% 18.49% 48.62%-0.29 -13.0 0
1905-02-26 33FC W 6-044.2 1587 1433 60.04% 18.33% 21.63%+1.29 +50.3 2
1905-02-26 @ MTK Budapest L 0-644.2 1433 1587 21.63% 18.33% 60.04%-1.29 -50.3 0
1905-02-26 Magyar Uszo Egylet W 1-049.2 1529 1458 50.43% 18.48% 31.09%+0.43 +13.1 2
1905-02-26 @ Budapest Postas L 0-149.2 1458 1529 31.09% 18.48% 50.43%-0.43 -13.1 0
1905-02-26 Muegyetemi W 7-151.7 1392 1492 27.49% 18.44% 54.07%-1.33 +90.9 2
1905-02-26 @ Fovarosi TC L 1-751.7 1492 1392 54.07% 18.44% 27.49%+1.33 -90.9 0
1905-03-05 Ferencvaros L 0-252.0 1516 1666 22.07% 18.34% 59.59%-1.84 -18.4 2
1905-03-05 @ Magyar AC W 2-052.0 1666 1516 59.59% 18.34% 22.07%+1.84 +18.4 4
1905-03-05 Fovarosi TC D 0-061.0 1542 1483 48.93% 18.49% 32.57%+0.31 -1.6 3
1905-03-05 @ Budapest Postas D 0-061.0 1483 1542 32.57% 18.49% 48.93%-0.31 +1.6 3
1905-03-05 Magyar Uszo Egylet W 2-150.9 1535 1445 52.83% 18.46% 28.71%+0.63 +11.6 2
1905-03-05 @ Ujpest L 1-250.9 1445 1535 28.71% 18.46% 52.83%-0.63 -11.6 0
1905-03-12 Muegyetemi W 2-045.2 1637 1401 67.36% 18.07% 14.57%+2.13 +12.7 4
1905-03-12 @ MTK Budapest L 0-245.2 1401 1637 14.57% 18.07% 67.36%-2.13 -12.7 0
1905-03-12 Magyar AC D 1-164.1 1547 1498 47.58% 18.50% 33.92%+0.21 -1.2 3
1905-03-12 @ Ujpest D 1-164.1 1498 1547 33.92% 18.50% 47.58%-0.21 +1.2 3
1905-03-12 Ferencvaros L 0-344.1 1383 1684 10.48% 17.80% 71.72%-3.40 -13.5 0
1905-03-12 @ 33FC W 3-044.1 1684 1383 71.72% 17.80% 10.48%+3.40 +13.5 6
1905-03-19 Muegyetemi W 3-042.6 1541 1389 59.86% 18.33% 21.80%+1.27 +26.5 5
1905-03-19 @ Budapest Postas L 0-342.6 1389 1541 21.80% 18.33% 59.86%-1.27 -26.5 0
1905-03-19 Magyar Uszo Egylet D 3-365.5 1485 1434 47.83% 18.50% 33.67%+0.23 -0.8 4
1905-03-19 @ Fovarosi TC D 3-365.5 1434 1485 33.67% 18.50% 47.83%-0.23 +0.8 1
1905-03-25 Ferencvaros FL67.1 1650 1698 34.13% 18.50% 47.37%-0.79 +0.0 4
1905-03-25 @ MTK Budapest FW67.1 1698 1650 47.37% 18.50% 34.13%+0.79 +0.0 8
1905-03-25 Muegyetemi L 0-347.5 1434 1362 50.63% 18.48% 30.89%+0.45 -54.2 1
1905-03-25 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet W 3-047.5 1362 1434 30.89% 18.48% 50.63%-0.45 +54.2 2
1905-03-25 33FC L 0-255.0 1546 1369 62.24% 18.27% 19.49%+1.52 -45.5 3
1905-03-25 @ Ujpest W 2-055.0 1369 1546 19.49% 18.27% 62.24%-1.52 +45.5 2
1905-04-02 Fovarosi TC W 1-051.3 1499 1484 42.88% 18.52% 38.60%-0.14 +15.7 5
1905-04-02 @ Magyar AC L 0-151.3 1484 1499 38.60% 18.52% 42.88%+0.14 -15.7 4
1905-04-02 Ujpest W 2-154.7 1650 1500 59.65% 18.34% 22.01%+1.25 +9.2 6
1905-04-02 @ MTK Budapest L 1-254.7 1500 1650 22.01% 18.34% 59.65%-1.25 -9.2 3
1905-04-02 Ferencvaros D 0-067.7 1567 1698 24.07% 18.38% 57.55%-1.64 +3.4 6
1905-04-02 @ Budapest Postas D 0-067.7 1698 1567 57.55% 18.38% 24.07%+1.64 -3.4 9
1905-04-11 MTK Budapest D 1-169.4 1571 1659 28.86% 18.46% 52.68%-1.21 +2.1 7
1905-04-11 @ Budapest Postas D 1-169.4 1659 1571 52.68% 18.46% 28.86%+1.21 -2.1 7
1905-04-16 Magyar Uszo Egylet W 4-041.3 1515 1380 57.99% 18.37% 23.63%+1.09 +37.1 7
1905-04-16 @ Magyar AC L 0-441.3 1380 1515 23.63% 18.37% 57.99%-1.09 -37.1 1
1905-04-16 33FC D 0-055.9 1468 1415 48.14% 18.50% 33.36%+0.25 -1.5 5
1905-04-16 @ Fovarosi TC D 0-055.9 1415 1468 33.36% 18.50% 48.14%-0.25 +1.5 3
1905-04-23 Magyar Uszo Egylet W 3-248.2 1416 1343 50.75% 18.48% 30.77%+0.46 +11.6 5
1905-04-23 @ 33FC L 2-348.2 1343 1416 30.77% 18.48% 50.75%-0.46 -11.6 1
1905-04-24 Fovarosi TC W 4-047.6 1491 1467 44.16% 18.52% 37.32%-0.05 +54.7 5
1905-04-24 @ Ujpest L 0-447.6 1467 1491 37.32% 18.52% 44.16%+0.05 -54.7 5
1905-04-30 Fovarosi TC W 3-045.8 1694 1412 70.57% 17.89% 11.55%+2.61 +14.8 11
1905-04-30 @ Ferencvaros L 0-345.8 1412 1694 11.55% 17.89% 70.57%-2.61 -14.8 5
1905-05-04 Muegyetemi W 2-045.3 1552 1416 58.10% 18.37% 23.53%+1.10 +19.5 9
1905-05-04 @ Magyar AC L 0-245.3 1416 1552 23.53% 18.37% 58.10%-1.10 -19.5 2
1905-05-07 Ferencvaros L 2-548.0 1331 1709 7.03% 17.41% 75.57%-4.19 -6.7 1
1905-05-07 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet W 5-248.0 1709 1331 75.57% 17.41% 7.03%+4.19 +6.7 13
1905-05-07 Ujpest W 2-054.8 1573 1546 44.58% 18.51% 36.90%-0.02 +28.6 9
1905-05-07 @ Budapest Postas L 0-254.8 1546 1573 36.90% 18.51% 44.58%+0.02 -28.6 5
1905-05-10 Magyar Uszo Egylet W 7-038.3 1657 1325 73.45% 17.65% 8.91%+3.13 +25.6 9
1905-05-10 @ MTK Budapest L 0-738.3 1325 1657 8.91% 17.65% 73.45%-3.13 -25.6 1
1905-05-14 Magyar AC W 4-365.7 1601 1571 44.99% 18.51% 36.50%+0.01 +13.1 11
1905-05-14 @ Budapest Postas L 3-465.7 1571 1601 36.50% 18.51% 44.99%-0.01 -13.1 9
1905-05-21 Ferencvaros L 0-1442.3 1397 1716 9.56% 17.72% 72.72%-3.58 -53.4 2
1905-05-21 @ Muegyetemi W 14-042.3 1716 1397 72.72% 17.72% 9.56%+3.58 +53.4 15
1905-05-28 Magyar AC L 0-164.6 1683 1558 56.91% 18.39% 24.69%+0.99 -22.1 9
1905-05-28 @ MTK Budapest W 1-064.6 1558 1683 24.69% 18.39% 56.91%-0.99 +22.1 11
1905-05-28 Muegyetemi W 5-038.5 1517 1343 62.00% 18.28% 19.73%+1.49 +39.0 7
1905-05-28 @ Ujpest L 0-538.5 1343 1517 19.73% 18.28% 62.00%-1.49 -39.0 2
1905-09-17 Magyar AC L 0-246.3 1428 1580 21.79% 18.33% 59.88%-1.87 -18.2 5
1905-09-17 @ 33FC W 2-046.3 1580 1428 59.88% 18.33% 21.79%+1.87 +18.2 13
1905-09-17 Budapest Postas L 0-537.0 1299 1614 9.73% 17.73% 72.53%-3.55 -20.3 1
1905-09-17 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet W 5-037.0 1614 1299 72.53% 17.73% 9.73%+3.55 +20.3 13
1905-09-17 MTK Budapest L 0-543.2 1397 1661 12.69% 17.97% 69.34%-3.01 -26.1 5
1905-09-17 @ Fovarosi TC W 5-043.2 1661 1397 69.34% 17.97% 12.69%+3.01 +26.1 11
1905-09-17 Ferencvaros L 1-355.6 1556 1769 16.31% 18.16% 65.53%-2.50 -12.2 7
1905-09-17 @ Ujpest W 3-155.6 1769 1556 65.53% 18.16% 16.31%+2.50 +12.2 17
1905-09-24 MTK Budapest L 1-845.8 1410 1687 11.86% 17.91% 70.24%-3.15 -27.7 5
1905-09-24 @ 33FC W 8-145.8 1687 1410 70.24% 17.91% 11.86%+3.15 +27.7 13
1905-09-24 Budapest Postas D 1-171.6 1781 1635 59.29% 18.35% 22.36%+1.21 -3.4 18
1905-09-24 @ Ferencvaros D 1-171.6 1635 1781 22.36% 18.35% 59.29%-1.21 +3.4 14
1905-09-24 Ujpest L 0-535.2 1279 1544 12.59% 17.96% 69.45%-3.03 -25.9 1
1905-09-24 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet W 5-035.2 1544 1279 69.45% 17.96% 12.59%+3.03 +25.9 9
1905-09-24 Magyar AC W 1-059.1 1371 1598 15.21% 18.11% 66.69%-2.64 +25.9 7
1905-09-24 @ Fovarosi TC L 0-159.1 1598 1371 66.69% 18.11% 15.21%+2.64 -25.9 13
1905-10-08 Fovarosi TC L 0-542.2 1382 1397 38.62% 18.52% 42.86%-0.45 -69.4 5
1905-10-08 @ 33FC W 5-042.2 1397 1382 42.86% 18.52% 38.62%+0.45 +69.4 9
1905-10-08 Budapest Postas L 1-267.0 1714 1638 51.14% 18.47% 30.38%+0.49 -18.9 13
1905-10-08 @ MTK Budapest W 2-167.0 1638 1714 30.38% 18.47% 51.14%-0.49 +18.9 16
1905-10-08 Magyar AC L 0-1135.2 1304 1573 12.40% 17.95% 69.65%-3.06 -54.1 2
1905-10-08 @ Muegyetemi W 11-035.2 1573 1304 69.65% 17.95% 12.40%+3.06 +54.1 15
1905-10-15 33FC D 2-256.1 1253 1313 32.50% 18.49% 49.01%-0.92 +1.1 2
1905-10-15 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet D 2-256.1 1313 1253 49.01% 18.49% 32.50%+0.92 -1.1 6
1905-10-15 Magyar AC W 3-158.1 1778 1627 59.78% 18.34% 21.89%+1.26 +15.8 20
1905-10-15 @ Ferencvaros L 1-358.1 1627 1778 21.89% 18.34% 59.78%-1.26 -15.8 15
1905-10-15 Ujpest L 1-749.1 1466 1570 27.10% 18.43% 54.47%-1.36 -50.5 9
1905-10-15 @ Fovarosi TC W 7-149.1 1570 1466 54.47% 18.43% 27.10%+1.36 +50.5 11
1905-10-15 MTK Budapest L 1-1535.2 1250 1696 4.90% 16.99% 78.11%-4.89 -22.7 2
1905-10-15 @ Muegyetemi W 15-135.2 1696 1250 78.11% 16.99% 4.90%+4.89 +22.7 15
1905-10-22 Budapest Postas L 0-737.7 1312 1657 8.33% 17.58% 74.09%-3.86 -24.0 6
1905-10-22 @ 33FC W 7-037.7 1657 1312 74.09% 17.58% 8.33%+3.86 +24.0 18
1905-10-22 MTK Budapest L 0-338.5 1254 1718 4.42% 16.87% 78.71%-5.08 -5.8 2
1905-10-22 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet W 3-038.5 1718 1254 78.71% 16.87% 4.42%+5.08 +5.8 17
1905-10-29 33FC L 1-342.7 1228 1288 32.47% 18.49% 49.03%-0.92 -22.2 2
1905-10-29 @ Muegyetemi W 3-142.7 1288 1228 49.03% 18.49% 32.47%+0.92 +22.2 8
1905-10-29 Magyar Uszo Egylet W 12-037.6 1794 1248 80.86% 16.29% 2.85%+5.32 +13.9 22
1905-10-29 @ Ferencvaros L 0-1237.6 1248 1794 2.85% 16.29% 80.86%-5.32 -13.9 2
1905-10-29 Ujpest L 1-361.3 1611 1620 39.39% 18.52% 42.09%-0.40 -26.1 15
1905-10-29 @ Magyar AC W 3-161.3 1620 1611 42.09% 18.52% 39.39%+0.40 +26.1 13
1905-11-01 MTK Budapest L 1-258.1 1585 1724 23.10% 18.36% 58.54%-1.74 -9.6 15
1905-11-01 @ Magyar AC W 2-158.1 1724 1585 58.54% 18.36% 23.10%+1.74 +9.6 19
1905-11-01 Ujpest L 1-343.2 1310 1646 8.72% 17.63% 73.65%-3.77 -6.8 8
1905-11-01 @ 33FC W 3-143.2 1646 1310 73.65% 17.63% 8.72%+3.77 +6.8 15
1905-11-01 Fovarosi TC L 0-832.3 1205 1416 16.52% 18.16% 65.32%-2.47 -51.9 2
1905-11-01 @ Muegyetemi W 8-032.3 1416 1205 65.32% 18.16% 16.52%+2.47 +51.9 11
1905-11-05 Magyar AC L 0-932.3 1234 1575 8.52% 17.60% 73.87%-3.81 -31.2 2
1905-11-05 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet W 9-032.3 1575 1234 73.87% 17.60% 8.52%+3.81 +31.2 17
1905-11-05 Ferencvaros D 3-376.5 1468 1808 8.57% 17.61% 73.82%-3.80 +4.0 12
1905-11-05 @ Fovarosi TC D 3-376.5 1808 1468 73.82% 17.61% 8.57%+3.80 -4.0 23
1905-11-19 33FC L 1-270.2 1804 1303 79.74% 16.62% 3.64%+4.86 -29.3 23
1905-11-19 @ Ferencvaros W 2-170.2 1303 1804 3.64% 16.62% 79.74%-4.86 +29.3 10
1905-11-19 Budapest Postas L 1-260.1 1606 1681 30.60% 18.48% 50.92%-1.07 -12.2 17
1905-11-19 @ Magyar AC W 2-160.1 1681 1606 50.92% 18.48% 30.60%+1.07 +12.2 20
1905-11-19 MTK Budapest D 1-171.4 1653 1734 29.85% 18.47% 51.68%-1.13 +1.9 16
1905-11-19 @ Ujpest D 1-171.4 1734 1653 51.68% 18.47% 29.85%+1.13 -1.9 20
1905-11-26 MTK Budapest D 2-274.9 1774 1732 46.70% 18.51% 34.80%+0.14 -0.8 24
1905-11-26 @ Ferencvaros D 2-274.9 1732 1774 34.80% 18.51% 46.70%-0.14 +0.8 21
1905-11-26 Fovarosi TC W 3-154.8 1203 1472 12.36% 17.94% 69.69%-3.07 +44.2 4
1905-11-26 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet L 1-354.8 1472 1203 69.69% 17.94% 12.36%+3.07 -44.3 12
1905-11-26 Budapest Postas L 2-564.0 1655 1693 35.39% 18.51% 46.10%-0.69 -29.3 16
1905-11-26 @ Ujpest W 5-264.0 1693 1655 46.10% 18.51% 35.39%+0.69 +29.3 22
1905-11-30 Magyar Uszo Egylet FL48.7 1153 1247 28.23% 18.45% 53.32%-1.27 +0.0 2
1905-11-30 @ Muegyetemi FW48.7 1247 1153 53.32% 18.45% 28.23%+1.27 +0.0 6
1905-11-30 Budapest Postas FL54.8 1153 1722 2.51% 16.11% 81.38%-6.16 +0.0 2
1905-11-30 @ Muegyetemi FW54.8 1722 1153 81.38% 16.11% 2.51%+6.16 +0.0 24
1905-11-30 Ujpest FL52.1 1153 1626 4.24% 16.81% 78.95%-5.17 +0.0 2
1905-11-30 @ Muegyetemi FW52.1 1626 1153 78.95% 16.81% 4.24%+5.17 +0.0 18
1905-11-30 Muegyetemi FW48.9 1332 1153 62.52% 18.26% 19.22%+1.55 +0.0 12
1905-11-30 @ 33FC FL48.9 1153 1332 19.22% 18.26% 62.52%-1.55 +0.0 2
1905-11-30 Muegyetemi FW56.6 1774 1153 82.39% 15.71% 1.90%+6.09 +0.0 26
1905-11-30 @ Ferencvaros FL56.6 1153 1774 1.90% 15.71% 82.39%-6.09 +0.0 2
1905-11-30 Fovarosi TC FW64.0 1733 1428 71.95% 17.78% 10.26%+2.84 +0.0 23
1905-11-30 @ MTK Budapest FL64.0 1428 1733 10.26% 17.78% 71.95%-2.84 +0.0 12
1905-11-30 33FC FW60.8 1722 1332 76.09% 17.33% 6.58%+3.72 +0.0 26
1905-11-30 @ Budapest Postas FL60.8 1332 1722 6.58% 17.33% 76.09%-3.72 +0.0 12
1905-11-30 Budapest Postas FL63.7 1428 1722 10.81% 17.83% 71.36%-3.34 +0.0 12
1905-11-30 @ Fovarosi TC FL63.7 1722 1428 71.36% 17.83% 10.81%+3.34 +0.0 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1905-11-19 3.64% 33FC 1303 2 @ Ferencvaros 1804 1
2 1905-11-26 12.36% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 1203 3 Fovarosi TC 1472 1
3 1905-09-24 15.21% @ Fovarosi TC 1371 1 Magyar AC 1598 0
4 1905-03-25 19.49% 33FC 1369 2 @ Ujpest 1546 0
5 1905-05-28 24.69% Magyar AC 1558 1 @ MTK Budapest 1683 0
6 1905-02-26 27.49% @ Fovarosi TC 1392 7 Muegyetemi 1492 1
7 1905-10-08 30.38% Budapest Postas 1638 2 @ MTK Budapest 1714 1
8 1905-03-25 30.89% Muegyetemi 1362 3 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 1434 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1905-02-26 90.92 @ Fovarosi TC 7 1392 27.49% Muegyetemi 1 1492 54.07% 18.44%
2 1905-10-08 69.38 Fovarosi TC 5 1397 42.86% @ 33FC 0 1382 38.62% 18.52%
3 1905-04-24 54.73 @ Ujpest 4 1491 44.16% Fovarosi TC 0 1467 37.32% 18.52%
4 1905-03-25 54.25 Muegyetemi 3 1362 30.89% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1434 50.63% 18.48%
5 1905-10-08 54.11 Magyar AC 11 1573 69.65% @ Muegyetemi 0 1304 12.40% 17.95%
6 1905-05-21 53.43 Ferencvaros 14 1716 72.72% @ Muegyetemi 0 1397 9.56% 17.72%
7 1905-11-01 51.93 Fovarosi TC 8 1416 65.32% @ Muegyetemi 0 1205 16.52% 18.16%
8 1905-10-15 50.49 Ujpest 7 1570 54.47% @ Fovarosi TC 1 1466 27.10% 18.43%
9 1905-02-26 50.28 @ MTK Budapest 6 1587 60.04% 33FC 0 1433 21.63% 18.33%
10 1905-03-25 45.48 33FC 2 1369 19.49% @ Ujpest 0 1546 62.24% 18.27%
11 1905-11-26 44.26 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 3 1203 12.36% Fovarosi TC 1 1472 69.69% 17.94%
12 1905-05-28 39.02 @ Ujpest 5 1517 62.00% Muegyetemi 0 1343 19.73% 18.28%
13 1905-04-16 37.13 @ Magyar AC 4 1515 57.99% Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1380 23.63% 18.37%
14 1905-11-05 31.23 Magyar AC 9 1575 73.87% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1234 8.52% 17.60%
15 1905-11-19 29.35 33FC 2 1303 3.64% @ Ferencvaros 1 1804 79.74% 16.62%
16 1905-11-26 29.28 Budapest Postas 5 1693 46.10% @ Ujpest 2 1655 35.39% 18.51%
17 1905-05-07 28.58 @ Budapest Postas 2 1573 44.58% Ujpest 0 1546 36.90% 18.51%
18 1905-09-24 27.69 MTK Budapest 8 1687 70.24% @ 33FC 1 1410 11.86% 17.91%
19 1905-03-19 26.48 @ Budapest Postas 3 1541 59.86% Muegyetemi 0 1389 21.80% 18.33%
20 1905-10-29 26.12 Ujpest 3 1620 42.09% @ Magyar AC 1 1611 39.39% 18.52%
21 1905-09-17 26.09 MTK Budapest 5 1661 69.34% @ Fovarosi TC 0 1397 12.69% 17.97%
22 1905-09-24 25.90 Ujpest 5 1544 69.45% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1279 12.59% 17.96%
23 1905-09-24 25.88 @ Fovarosi TC 1 1371 15.21% Magyar AC 0 1598 66.69% 18.11%
24 1905-05-10 25.63 @ MTK Budapest 7 1657 73.45% Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1325 8.91% 17.65%
25 1905-10-22 24.02 Budapest Postas 7 1657 74.09% @ 33FC 0 1312 8.33% 17.58%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1905-11-05 76.5 @ Fovarosi TC 3 1468 8.57% Ferencvaros 3 1808 73.82% 17.61%
2 1905-11-26 74.9 @ Ferencvaros 2 1774 46.70% MTK Budapest 2 1732 34.80% 18.51%
3 1905-09-24 71.6 @ Ferencvaros 1 1781 59.29% Budapest Postas 1 1635 22.36% 18.35%
4 1905-11-19 71.4 @ Ujpest 1 1653 29.85% MTK Budapest 1 1734 51.68% 18.47%
5 1905-11-19 70.2 33FC 2 1303 3.64% @ Ferencvaros 1 1804 79.74% 16.62%
6 1905-04-11 69.4 @ Budapest Postas 1 1571 28.86% MTK Budapest 1 1659 52.68% 18.46%
7 1905-04-02 67.7 @ Budapest Postas 0 1567 24.07% Ferencvaros 0 1698 57.55% 18.38%
8 1905-10-08 67.0 Budapest Postas 2 1638 30.38% @ MTK Budapest 1 1714 51.14% 18.47%
9 1905-05-14 65.7 @ Budapest Postas 4 1601 44.99% Magyar AC 3 1571 36.50% 18.51%
10 1905-03-19 65.5 @ Fovarosi TC 3 1485 47.83% Magyar Uszo Egylet 3 1434 33.67% 18.50%
11 1905-05-28 64.6 Magyar AC 1 1558 24.69% @ MTK Budapest 0 1683 56.91% 18.39%
12 1905-03-12 64.1 @ Ujpest 1 1547 47.58% Magyar AC 1 1498 33.92% 18.50%
13 1905-11-26 64.0 Budapest Postas 5 1693 46.10% @ Ujpest 2 1655 35.39% 18.51%
14 1905-10-29 61.3 Ujpest 3 1620 42.09% @ Magyar AC 1 1611 39.39% 18.52%
15 1905-03-05 61.0 @ Budapest Postas 0 1542 48.93% Fovarosi TC 0 1483 32.57% 18.49%
16 1905-11-19 60.1 Budapest Postas 2 1681 50.92% @ Magyar AC 1 1606 30.60% 18.48%
17 1905-09-24 59.1 @ Fovarosi TC 1 1371 15.21% Magyar AC 0 1598 66.69% 18.11%
18 1905-10-15 58.1 @ Ferencvaros 3 1778 59.78% Magyar AC 1 1627 21.89% 18.34%
19 1905-11-01 58.1 MTK Budapest 2 1724 58.54% @ Magyar AC 1 1585 23.10% 18.36%
20 1905-10-15 56.1 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 2 1253 32.50% 33FC 2 1313 49.01% 18.49%
21 1905-04-16 55.9 @ Fovarosi TC 0 1468 48.14% 33FC 0 1415 33.36% 18.50%
22 1905-09-17 55.6 Ferencvaros 3 1769 65.53% @ Ujpest 1 1556 16.31% 18.16%
23 1905-03-25 55.0 33FC 2 1369 19.49% @ Ujpest 0 1546 62.24% 18.27%
24 1905-05-07 54.8 @ Budapest Postas 2 1573 44.58% Ujpest 0 1546 36.90% 18.51%
25 1905-11-26 54.8 @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 3 1203 12.36% Fovarosi TC 1 1472 69.69% 17.94%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1905-11-01 32.3 Fovarosi TC 8 1416 65.32% @ Muegyetemi 0 1205 16.52% 18.16%
2 1905-11-05 32.3 Magyar AC 9 1575 73.87% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1234 8.52% 17.60%
3 1905-09-24 35.2 Ujpest 5 1544 69.45% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1279 12.59% 17.96%
4 1905-10-08 35.2 Magyar AC 11 1573 69.65% @ Muegyetemi 0 1304 12.40% 17.95%
5 1905-10-15 35.2 MTK Budapest 15 1696 78.11% @ Muegyetemi 1 1250 4.90% 16.99%
6 1905-09-17 37.0 Budapest Postas 5 1614 72.53% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1299 9.73% 17.73%
7 1905-10-29 37.6 @ Ferencvaros 12 1794 80.86% Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1248 2.85% 16.29%
8 1905-10-22 37.7 Budapest Postas 7 1657 74.09% @ 33FC 0 1312 8.33% 17.58%
9 1905-05-10 38.3 @ MTK Budapest 7 1657 73.45% Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1325 8.91% 17.65%
10 1905-05-28 38.5 @ Ujpest 5 1517 62.00% Muegyetemi 0 1343 19.73% 18.28%
11 1905-10-22 38.5 MTK Budapest 3 1718 78.71% @ Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1254 4.42% 16.87%
12 1905-04-16 41.3 @ Magyar AC 4 1515 57.99% Magyar Uszo Egylet 0 1380 23.63% 18.37%
13 1905-10-08 42.2 Fovarosi TC 5 1397 42.86% @ 33FC 0 1382 38.62% 18.52%
14 1905-05-21 42.3 Ferencvaros 14 1716 72.72% @ Muegyetemi 0 1397 9.56% 17.72%
15 1905-03-19 42.6 @ Budapest Postas 3 1541 59.86% Muegyetemi 0 1389 21.80% 18.33%
16 1905-10-29 42.7 33FC 3 1288 49.03% @ Muegyetemi 1 1228 32.47% 18.49%
17 1905-09-17 43.2 MTK Budapest 5 1661 69.34% @ Fovarosi TC 0 1397 12.69% 17.97%
18 1905-11-01 43.2 Ujpest 3 1646 73.65% @ 33FC 1 1310 8.72% 17.63%
19 1905-03-12 44.1 Ferencvaros 3 1684 71.72% @ 33FC 0 1383 10.48% 17.80%
20 1905-02-26 44.2 @ MTK Budapest 6 1587 60.04% 33FC 0 1433 21.63% 18.33%
21 1905-03-12 45.2 @ MTK Budapest 2 1637 67.36% Muegyetemi 0 1401 14.57% 18.07%
22 1905-05-04 45.3 @ Magyar AC 2 1552 58.10% Muegyetemi 0 1416 23.53% 18.37%
23 1905-04-30 45.8 @ Ferencvaros 3 1694 70.57% Fovarosi TC 0 1412 11.55% 17.89%
24 1905-09-24 45.8 MTK Budapest 8 1687 70.24% @ 33FC 1 1410 11.86% 17.91%
25 1905-09-17 46.3 Magyar AC 2 1580 59.88% @ 33FC 0 1428 21.79% 18.33%