Home / Leagues / Hungary / I. Osztály / 1907-08
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1907-08 I. Osztály Season

72 games

Final

Champion

MTK Budapest

28 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1904

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Torekves SC

6.33 points above expected

14 points · 7.67 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Typographia SC

5.57 points below expected

2 points · 7.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 MTK Budapest Champion 16 12 4 0 28 45 15 +30 24.17 +3.83
2 Ferencvaros 16 11 3 2 25 62 27 +35 24.19 +0.81
3 Magyar AC 16 11 2 3 24 83 20 +63 25.91 -1.91
4 Ujpest 16 8 2 6 18 20 27 -7 13.47 +4.53
5 Torekves SC 16 6 2 8 14 25 47 -22 7.67 +6.33
6 Budapest TC 16 5 3 8 13 48 27 +21 15.77 -2.77
7 Fovarosi TC 16 4 2 10 10 26 48 -22 10.15 -0.15
8 Budapesti AK 16 4 2 10 10 24 51 -27 15.10 -5.10
9 Typographia SC 16 1 0 15 2 11 82 -71 7.57 -5.57

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Torekves SC 14 7.67 +6.33
2 Ujpest 18 13.47 +4.53
3 MTK Budapest 28 24.17 +3.83
4 Ferencvaros 25 24.19 +0.81
5 Fovarosi TC 10 10.15 -0.15

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Typographia SC 2 7.57 -5.57
2 Budapesti AK 10 15.10 -5.10
3 Budapest TC 13 15.77 -2.77
4 Magyar AC 24 25.91 -1.91
5 Fovarosi TC 10 10.15 -0.15

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fovarosi TC 2 Apr 26 – May 10 1 in 16
2 MTK Budapest 6 Mar 15 – May 24 1 in 7
3 Torekves SC 2 Dec 1 – Feb 23 1 in 5
4 Ujpest 2 Oct 13 – Oct 20 1 in 4
5 Ferencvaros 6 Mar 1 – May 28 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Budapest TC 4 Mar 22 – May 17 1 in 8,480
2 Typographia SC 12 Oct 27 – May 28 1 in 114
3 Magyar AC 2 May 10 – May 24 1 in 85
4 Budapesti AK 5 Mar 15 – May 31 1 in 25
5 Torekves SC 3 Sep 29 – Oct 20 1 in 2

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ujpest 4 Mar 8 – Apr 12 1 in 47
2 Torekves SC 4 Mar 22 – Apr 26 1 in 41
3 MTK Budapest 16 Sep 15 – May 28 1 in 35
4 Ferencvaros 11 Nov 1 – May 28 1 in 7
5 Budapest TC 5 Sep 29 – Nov 17 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Budapest TC 7 Mar 1 – May 28 1 in 543
2 Ferencvaros 3 Oct 20 – Nov 10 1 in 22
3 Magyar AC 2 May 10 – May 24 1 in 11
4 Typographia SC 12 Oct 27 – May 28 1 in 10
5 MTK Budapest 2 Feb 23 – Mar 8 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
MTK Budapest 1898 24 +44 9 7.7 +1.3
Magyar AC 1912 24 -75 6 8.4 -2.4
Ferencvaros 1851 23 +36 10 8.8 +1.2
Ujpest 1405 16 +87 7 3.6 +3.4
Torekves SC 1242 14 +61 5 3.0 +2.0
Budapest TC 1628 13 -128 2 4.9 -2.9
Budapesti AK 1366 10 -72 0 3.3 -3.3
Fovarosi TC 1276 8 +104 4 2.3 +1.7
Typographia SC 975 2 -112 0 2.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BT BA FER FT MB MA TS TS UJP
Budapest TC —
1-1-0
3.58
0-1-1
1.41
1-0-1
4.79
0-1-1
1.49
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
5.09
2-0-0
4.80
1-0-1
4.67
Budapesti AK
0-1-1
2.10
 —
0-0-2
1.06
1-1-0
4.42
0-0-2
0.93
0-0-2
0.53
1-0-1
4.47
2-0-0
3.90
0-0-2
3.64
Ferencvaros
1-1-0
4.27
2-0-0
4.63
 —
2-0-0
5.22
0-1-1
2.79
1-0-1
2.07
1-1-0
5.32
2-0-0
5.18
2-0-0
4.95
Fovarosi TC
1-0-1
0.90
0-1-1
1.27
0-0-2
0.48
 —
0-0-2
0.43
0-1-1
0.36
1-0-1
3.57
1-0-1
3.37
1-0-1
1.78
MTK Budapest
1-1-0
4.19
2-0-0
4.77
1-1-0
2.89
2-0-0
5.28
 —
1-1-0
2.04
2-0-0
5.31
2-0-0
5.40
1-1-0
5.17
Magyar AC
2-0-0
4.15
2-0-0
5.17
1-0-1
3.62
1-1-0
5.36
0-1-1
3.65
 —
2-0-0
5.38
2-0-0
5.24
1-0-1
5.25
Torekves SC
2-0-0
0.61
1-0-1
1.22
0-1-1
0.39
1-0-1
2.11
0-0-2
0.40
0-0-2
0.34
 —
2-0-0
3.32
0-1-1
1.66
Typographia SC
0-0-2
0.90
0-0-2
1.79
0-0-2
0.54
1-0-1
2.31
0-0-2
0.32
0-0-2
0.48
0-0-2
2.36
 —
0-0-2
2.07
Ujpest
1-0-1
1.02
2-0-0
2.04
0-0-2
0.75
1-0-1
3.91
0-1-1
0.53
1-0-1
0.46
1-1-0
4.03
2-0-0
3.61
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.54 +2.7
Allowed 0.82 -3.7
Differential 0.77 +1.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%3.47%4.17%0.69%0.69%8.33%20.14%
13.47%4.17%3.47%3.47%2.08%4.17%20.83%
24.17%3.47%4.17%1.39%3.47%1.39%18.06%
30.69%3.47%1.39%2.78%2.08%—10.42%
40.69%2.08%3.47%2.08%—0.69%9.03%
5+8.33%4.17%1.39%—0.69%6.94%21.53%
Total20.14%20.83%18.06%10.42%9.03%21.53%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 2.32 +0.00
SD 3.12 3.12 4.79
CV 1.35 1.35 —
Max 20 20 +20
Min -1 -1 -20

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%———6.25%18.75%
1———————
2—6.25%6.25%12.50%——25.00%
3—6.25%—6.25%12.50%—25.00%
4———————
5+18.75%————12.50%31.25%
Total25.00%18.75%6.25%18.75%12.50%18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.88 1.56 +1.31
SD 4.26 1.90 4.88
CV 1.48 1.21 —
Max 17 5 +17
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%—6.25%—12.50%31.25%
16.25%—12.50%6.25%12.50%—37.50%
2———————
3—6.25%—6.25%6.25%—18.75%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total18.75%18.75%12.50%18.75%18.75%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 3.19 -1.69
SD 1.59 3.90 4.70
CV 1.06 1.22 —
Max 5 16 +4
Min 0 0 -16

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
16.25%————6.25%12.50%
26.25%—12.50%—6.25%—25.00%
36.25%——6.25%——12.50%
4—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
5+12.50%12.50%——6.25%6.25%37.50%
Total31.25%18.75%18.75%6.25%12.50%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.81 1.62 +2.19
SD 3.04 2.06 3.64
CV 0.80 1.27 —
Max 10 7 +8
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%———6.25%12.50%25.00%
1——12.50%——6.25%18.75%
26.25%—6.25%—12.50%—25.00%
3———————
4—————6.25%6.25%
5+—6.25%6.25%——12.50%25.00%
Total12.50%6.25%25.00%—18.75%37.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.88 -1.38
SD 2.03 2.99 3.20
CV 1.36 1.04 —
Max 6 10 +4
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—————6.25%
1—12.50%————12.50%
26.25%6.25%————12.50%
3—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
4—12.50%6.25%6.25%——25.00%
5+12.50%6.25%———12.50%31.25%
Total25.00%43.75%6.25%12.50%—12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.69 0.81 +1.88
SD 2.27 1.17 2.09
CV 0.85 1.44 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min -1 -1 +0

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
16.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%——25.00%
2—6.25%6.25%—6.25%—18.75%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4———6.25%——6.25%
5+31.25%6.25%6.25%———43.75%
Total37.50%25.00%18.75%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 5.19 1.25 +3.94
SD 5.50 1.29 6.23
CV 1.06 1.03 —
Max 20 4 +20
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%6.25%——12.50%25.00%
16.25%6.25%—6.25%6.25%6.25%31.25%
26.25%—6.25%——6.25%18.75%
3——12.50%———12.50%
4——6.25%6.25%——12.50%
5+———————
Total12.50%12.50%31.25%12.50%6.25%25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 2.94 -1.38
SD 1.36 2.29 2.96
CV 0.87 0.78 —
Max 4 8 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%12.50%——18.75%37.50%
1———12.50%—18.75%31.25%
2—6.25%——6.25%6.25%18.75%
3———————
4———————
5+—————12.50%12.50%
Total—12.50%12.50%12.50%6.25%56.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 5.00 -4.44
SD 0.96 5.87 5.92
CV 1.71 1.17 —
Max 2 20 +1
Min -1 -1 -20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%18.75%——12.50%37.50%
16.25%12.50%————18.75%
212.50%6.25%————18.75%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4——12.50%———12.50%
5+—————6.25%6.25%
Total18.75%31.25%31.25%——18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.62 -0.44
SD 1.52 1.93 2.63
CV 1.28 1.19 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Magyar AC 1912 24 25.91 -1.91 27.0% 18 21 24 26 28 30 31
MTK Budapest 1898 28 24.17 +3.83 96.0% 17 20 23 24 26 28 29
Ferencvaros 1851 25 24.19 +0.81 59.0% 16 19 22 24 26 29 30
Budapest TC 1628 13 15.77 -2.77 15.0% 11 12 14 15 17 19 24
Ujpest 1405 18 13.47 +4.53 99.0% 7 9 12 14 15 17 21
Budapesti AK 1366 10 15.10 -5.10 8.0% 9 10 13 16 17 19 21
Fovarosi TC 1276 10 10.15 -0.15 50.0% 4 6 8 10 12 14 15
Torekves SC 1242 14 7.67 +6.33 98.0% 0 3 6 7 10 13 15
Typographia SC 975 2 7.57 -5.57 0.0% 3 3 5 8 9 12 15

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.67%
Slight Edge
51.39%13.89%34.72%
Elo Value
Home Edge
164 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
053.50500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.36 goals
Neutral
-2+0.33+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
20%
MTK Budapest, 3rd of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.19/gm
Comfortable
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.12 * Some Luck: 2.12 to 3.17 * Lucky: 3.17 to 4.23 * Wild Swing: 4.23 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.61 * Close: 0.61 to 0.92 * Off: 0.92 to 1.23 * Way Off: 1.23 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.00 points
Lucky
02.657
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.56
Way Off
00.772
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
99.00%
Ujpest
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
Typographia SC
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Lopsided
00.150.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 332.81
2.28
Wide Separation
11.61.852.152.75
Interquartile Edge
96%
Wide Edge
50%65.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
42%
Few
0%24%100%
Blowouts
Expected
36%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.46
Highly Predictable
00.432
Matchup Imbalance
0.65
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.26
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.56
Some Carryover
00.450.590.721
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%10%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.62
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.64
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.119
Well Within Noise
00.1520.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
MTK Budapest20.00%29.00%48.00%2.00%1.00%————
Ferencvaros23.00%41.00%31.00%5.00%—————
Magyar AC57.00%29.00%14.00%——————
Ujpest——1.00%15.00%24.00%42.00%12.00%4.00%2.00%
Torekves SC————1.00%6.00%20.00%32.00%41.00%
Budapest TC—1.00%4.00%46.00%32.00%13.00%4.00%——
Fovarosi TC———1.00%4.00%19.00%42.00%24.00%10.00%
Budapesti AK——2.00%31.00%38.00%14.00%9.00%6.00%—
Typographia SC—————6.00%13.00%34.00%47.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Budapest TC 100%
Budapesti AK 100%
Ferencvaros 100%
Fovarosi TC 100%
MTK Budapest 100%
Magyar AC 100%
Torekves SC 100%
Typographia SC 100%
Ujpest 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1907-09-08 Budapest TC W 4-357.3 1845 1540 77.78% 15.36% 6.86%+2.19 +3.8 2
1907-09-08 @ Magyar AC L 3-457.3 1540 1845 6.86% 15.36% 77.78%-2.19 -3.8 0
1907-09-15 Fovarosi TC W 10-444.8 1779 1266 83.10% 14.70% 2.20%+3.46 +4.2 2
1907-09-15 @ Ferencvaros L 4-1044.8 1266 1779 2.20% 14.70% 83.10%-3.46 -4.2 0
1907-09-15 MTK Budapest L 1-534.5 1098 1744 2.76% 14.64% 82.61%-3.62 -5.3 0
1907-09-15 @ Torekves SC W 5-134.5 1744 1098 82.61% 14.64% 2.76%+3.62 +5.3 2
1907-09-15 Typographia SC W 2-041.5 1355 1396 48.32% 15.83% 35.85%+0.07 +37.9 2
1907-09-15 @ Ujpest L 0-241.5 1396 1355 35.85% 15.83% 48.32%-0.07 -37.8 0
1907-09-22 Fovarosi TC W 4-032.5 1527 1262 76.03% 15.46% 8.51%+1.94 +19.3 2
1907-09-22 @ Budapesti AK L 0-432.5 1262 1527 8.51% 15.46% 76.03%-1.94 -19.3 0
1907-09-22 Ferencvaros W 4-263.4 1750 1784 49.36% 15.83% 34.81%+0.12 +28.6 4
1907-09-22 @ MTK Budapest L 2-463.4 1784 1750 34.81% 15.83% 49.36%-0.12 -28.6 2
1907-09-22 Budapest TC W 3-257.7 1093 1536 8.29% 15.30% 76.41%-2.38 +36.5 2
1907-09-22 @ Torekves SC L 2-357.7 1536 1093 76.41% 15.30% 8.29%+2.38 -36.5 0
1907-09-22 Magyar AC L 2-550.9 1359 1849 6.44% 15.17% 78.39%-2.67 -8.2 0
1907-09-22 @ Typographia SC W 5-250.9 1849 1359 78.39% 15.17% 6.44%+2.67 +8.2 4
1907-09-29 Budapesti AK W 2-153.8 1500 1546 47.70% 15.83% 36.47%+0.04 +19.2 2
1907-09-29 @ Budapest TC L 1-253.8 1546 1500 36.47% 15.83% 47.70%-0.04 -19.2 2
1907-09-29 MTK Budapest D 1-172.1 1857 1778 62.73% 15.76% 21.51%+0.81 -5.3 5
1907-09-29 @ Magyar AC D 1-172.1 1778 1857 21.51% 15.76% 62.73%-0.81 +5.3 5
1907-09-29 Torekves SC W 6-237.5 1243 1130 65.95% 15.73% 18.32%+1.02 +28.0 2
1907-09-29 @ Fovarosi TC L 2-637.5 1130 1243 18.32% 15.73% 65.95%-1.02 -28.0 2
1907-09-29 Ferencvaros L 0-644.3 1392 1755 12.57% 15.50% 71.93%-1.89 -40.8 2
1907-09-29 @ Ujpest W 6-044.3 1755 1392 71.93% 15.50% 12.57%+1.89 +40.8 4
1907-10-06 Torekves SC W 1-030.9 1527 1102 81.42% 15.01% 3.57%+2.92 +2.3 4
1907-10-06 @ Budapesti AK L 0-130.9 1102 1527 3.57% 15.01% 81.42%-2.92 -2.3 2
1907-10-13 Fovarosi TC W 5-032.2 1519 1271 75.22% 15.50% 9.29%+1.84 +25.8 4
1907-10-13 @ Budapest TC L 0-532.2 1271 1519 9.29% 15.50% 75.22%-1.84 -25.8 2
1907-10-13 Ferencvaros L 1-944.4 1350 1796 8.18% 15.30% 76.53%-2.39 -29.2 0
1907-10-13 @ Typographia SC W 9-144.4 1796 1350 76.53% 15.30% 8.18%+2.39 +29.2 6
1907-10-13 Budapesti AK W 3-152.7 1352 1529 29.79% 15.78% 54.43%-0.76 +47.2 4
1907-10-13 @ Ujpest L 1-352.7 1529 1352 54.43% 15.78% 29.79%+0.76 -47.2 4
1907-10-20 MTK Budapest L 0-747.9 1482 1783 17.04% 15.62% 67.34%-1.51 -62.7 4
1907-10-20 @ Budapesti AK W 7-047.9 1783 1482 67.34% 15.62% 17.04%+1.51 +62.7 7
1907-10-20 Ferencvaros W 7-156.1 1852 1825 57.05% 15.81% 27.15%+0.49 +68.1 7
1907-10-20 @ Magyar AC L 1-756.1 1825 1852 27.15% 15.81% 57.05%-0.49 -68.1 6
1907-10-20 Typographia SC L 1-245.0 1245 1321 43.56% 15.83% 40.61%-0.14 -22.3 2
1907-10-20 @ Fovarosi TC W 2-145.0 1321 1245 40.61% 15.83% 43.56%+0.14 +22.3 2
1907-10-20 Torekves SC W 2-030.5 1399 1099 77.55% 15.38% 7.07%+2.16 +8.5 6
1907-10-20 @ Ujpest L 0-230.5 1099 1399 7.07% 15.38% 77.55%-2.16 -8.5 2
1907-10-27 Ujpest W 2-046.2 1846 1407 81.72% 14.97% 3.32%+3.01 +4.0 9
1907-10-27 @ MTK Budapest L 0-246.2 1407 1846 3.32% 14.97% 81.72%-3.01 -4.0 6
1907-10-27 Magyar AC D 2-270.0 1223 1920 2.08% 14.43% 83.50%-3.93 +8.3 3
1907-10-27 @ Fovarosi TC D 2-270.0 1920 1223 83.50% 14.43% 2.08%+3.93 -8.3 8
1907-10-27 Budapesti AK L 1-545.3 1343 1419 43.59% 15.83% 40.58%-0.14 -70.7 2
1907-10-27 @ Typographia SC W 5-145.3 1419 1343 40.58% 15.83% 43.59%+0.14 +70.7 6
1907-11-01 Ferencvaros D 2-272.8 1545 1757 25.72% 15.74% 58.54%-0.97 +3.1 5
1907-11-01 @ Budapest TC D 2-272.8 1757 1545 58.54% 15.74% 25.72%+0.97 -3.1 7
1907-11-10 Torekves SC D 2-260.0 1754 1091 84.97% 14.08% 0.95%+4.38 -8.6 8
1907-11-10 @ Ferencvaros D 2-260.0 1091 1754 0.95% 14.08% 84.97%-4.38 +8.6 3
1907-11-10 Ujpest W 1-047.5 1912 1403 83.02% 14.72% 2.26%+3.43 +1.5 10
1907-11-10 @ Magyar AC L 0-147.5 1403 1912 2.26% 14.72% 83.02%-3.43 -1.5 6
1907-11-10 Budapest TC L 0-1734.6 1273 1548 19.32% 15.66% 65.02%-1.35 -165.5 2
1907-11-10 @ Typographia SC W 17-034.6 1548 1273 65.02% 15.66% 19.32%+1.35 +165.6 7
1907-11-17 Ferencvaros L 1-453.3 1490 1745 21.19% 15.69% 63.12%-1.23 -29.2 6
1907-11-17 @ Budapesti AK W 4-153.3 1745 1490 63.12% 15.69% 21.19%+1.23 +29.2 10
1907-11-17 Typographia SC W 5-034.0 1850 1107 85.68% 13.71% 0.61%+4.86 +1.7 11
1907-11-17 @ MTK Budapest L 0-534.0 1107 1850 0.61% 13.71% 85.68%-4.86 -1.7 2
1907-11-17 Magyar AC L 1-340.8 1099 1913 1.09% 13.92% 84.99%-4.64 -1.1 3
1907-11-17 @ Torekves SC W 3-140.8 1913 1099 84.99% 13.92% 1.09%+4.64 +1.1 12
1907-11-17 Budapest TC L 0-644.5 1402 1713 16.21% 15.60% 68.19%-1.58 -51.8 6
1907-11-17 @ Ujpest W 6-044.5 1713 1402 68.19% 15.60% 16.21%+1.58 +51.8 9
1907-11-24 Budapesti AK W 16-044.3 1914 1461 82.02% 14.92% 3.06%+3.10 +26.5 14
1907-11-24 @ Magyar AC L 0-1644.3 1461 1914 3.06% 14.92% 82.02%-3.10 -26.5 6
1907-11-24 Budapest TC W 4-362.5 1852 1765 63.48% 15.76% 20.77%+0.86 +10.8 13
1907-11-24 @ MTK Budapest L 3-462.5 1765 1852 20.77% 15.76% 63.48%-0.86 -10.8 9
1907-11-24 Ujpest L 2-445.3 1231 1350 37.47% 15.82% 46.71%-0.40 -30.5 3
1907-11-24 @ Fovarosi TC W 4-245.3 1350 1231 46.71% 15.82% 37.47%+0.40 +30.5 8
1907-12-01 Typographia SC W 1-038.3 1098 1106 52.89% 15.82% 31.29%+0.28 +17.9 5
1907-12-01 @ Torekves SC L 0-138.3 1106 1098 31.29% 15.82% 52.89%-0.28 -17.9 2
1908-02-06 Typographia SC W 3-135.0 1754 1088 85.00% 14.07% 0.93%+4.40 +1.0 11
1908-02-06 @ Budapest TC L 1-335.0 1088 1754 0.93% 14.07% 85.00%-4.40 -1.0 2
1908-02-06 Magyar AC W 4-269.1 1774 1941 31.20% 15.79% 53.01%-0.69 +41.2 12
1908-02-06 @ Ferencvaros L 2-469.1 1941 1774 53.01% 15.79% 31.20%+0.69 -41.2 14
1908-02-06 Budapesti AK D 0-051.5 1201 1434 23.38% 15.72% 60.90%-1.10 +5.3 4
1908-02-06 @ Fovarosi TC D 0-051.5 1434 1201 60.90% 15.72% 23.38%+1.10 -5.3 7
1908-02-23 MTK Budapest D 3-377.3 1816 1863 47.62% 15.83% 36.55%+0.04 -0.8 13
1908-02-23 @ Ferencvaros D 3-377.3 1863 1816 36.55% 15.83% 47.62%-0.04 +0.8 14
1908-02-23 Fovarosi TC W 4-246.2 1116 1206 41.59% 15.83% 42.58%-0.22 +33.9 7
1908-02-23 @ Torekves SC L 2-446.2 1206 1116 42.58% 15.83% 41.59%+0.22 -33.9 4
1908-03-01 Magyar AC L 0-556.1 1755 1900 34.06% 15.80% 50.14%-0.55 -84.7 11
1908-03-01 @ Budapest TC W 5-056.1 1900 1755 50.14% 15.80% 34.06%+0.55 +84.7 16
1908-03-01 Typographia SC W 3-132.6 1429 1087 79.12% 15.26% 5.62%+2.42 +5.9 9
1908-03-01 @ Budapesti AK L 1-332.6 1087 1429 5.62% 15.26% 79.12%-2.42 -5.9 2
1908-03-01 Ferencvaros L 0-634.7 1150 1815 2.49% 14.56% 82.95%-3.73 -8.3 7
1908-03-01 @ Torekves SC W 6-034.7 1815 1150 82.95% 14.56% 2.49%+3.73 +8.3 15
1908-03-01 Fovarosi TC L 0-250.6 1381 1172 73.02% 15.58% 11.40%+1.60 -73.3 8
1908-03-01 @ Ujpest W 2-050.6 1172 1381 11.40% 15.58% 73.02%-1.60 +73.3 6
1908-03-08 Budapest TC D 3-371.2 1435 1671 23.17% 15.72% 61.11%-1.11 +3.0 10
1908-03-08 @ Budapesti AK D 3-371.2 1671 1435 61.11% 15.72% 23.17%+1.11 -3.0 12
1908-03-08 Typographia SC W 20-036.3 1984 1081 86.86% 12.89% 0.25%+5.84 +2.6 18
1908-03-08 @ Magyar AC L 0-2036.3 1081 1984 0.25% 12.89% 86.86%-5.84 -2.6 2
1908-03-08 MTK Budapest D 1-168.1 1307 1863 4.51% 14.96% 80.53%-3.07 +10.4 9
1908-03-08 @ Ujpest D 1-168.1 1863 1307 80.53% 14.96% 4.51%+3.07 -10.4 15
1908-03-15 Fovarosi TC FW45.4 1853 1245 84.38% 14.32% 1.30%+4.04 +0.0 17
1908-03-15 @ MTK Budapest FL45.4 1245 1853 1.30% 14.32% 84.38%-4.04 +0.0 6
1908-03-15 Magyar AC L 1-251.5 1438 1987 4.69% 14.98% 80.32%-3.03 -2.8 10
1908-03-15 @ Budapesti AK W 2-151.5 1987 1438 80.32% 14.98% 4.69%+3.03 +2.8 20
1908-03-15 MTK Budapest L 1-245.4 1245 1853 3.40% 14.78% 81.82%-3.38 -2.1 6
1908-03-15 @ Fovarosi TC W 2-145.4 1853 1245 81.82% 14.78% 3.40%+3.38 +2.1 19
1908-03-15 Ujpest L 2-440.3 1078 1318 22.79% 15.71% 61.50%-1.13 -19.7 2
1908-03-15 @ Typographia SC W 4-240.3 1318 1078 61.50% 15.71% 22.79%+1.13 +19.7 11
1908-03-22 Torekves SC L 2-362.3 1668 1142 83.30% 14.65% 2.05%+3.54 -40.0 12
1908-03-22 @ Budapest TC W 3-262.3 1142 1668 2.05% 14.65% 83.30%-3.54 +40.0 9
1908-03-22 Budapesti AK W 4-148.8 1855 1435 81.30% 15.03% 3.67%+2.89 +5.5 21
1908-03-22 @ MTK Budapest L 1-448.8 1435 1855 3.67% 15.03% 81.30%-2.89 -5.5 10
1908-03-25 Ujpest FL57.6 1628 1337 77.18% 15.40% 7.43%+2.10 +0.0 12
1908-03-25 @ Budapest TC FW57.6 1337 1628 7.43% 15.40% 77.18%-2.10 +0.0 13
1908-03-25 Ferencvaros L 1-741.5 1243 1823 3.96% 14.88% 81.16%-3.21 -11.0 6
1908-03-25 @ Fovarosi TC W 7-141.5 1823 1243 81.16% 14.88% 3.96%+3.21 +11.0 17
1908-03-25 Torekves SC L 0-239.2 1059 1182 36.90% 15.82% 47.29%-0.43 -38.8 2
1908-03-25 @ Typographia SC W 2-039.2 1182 1059 47.29% 15.82% 36.90%+0.43 +38.8 11
1908-03-29 Budapesti AK W 3-045.9 1834 1430 80.92% 15.08% 4.00%+2.80 +7.1 19
1908-03-29 @ Ferencvaros L 0-345.9 1430 1834 4.00% 15.08% 80.92%-2.80 -7.0 10
1908-04-12 MTK Budapest FL55.2 1020 1861 0.93% 13.79% 85.27%-4.81 +0.0 2
1908-04-12 @ Typographia SC FW55.2 1861 1020 85.27% 13.79% 0.93%+4.81 +0.0 23
1908-04-12 Fovarosi TC W 5-042.4 1990 1232 85.80% 13.64% 0.56%+4.95 +1.6 22
1908-04-12 @ Magyar AC L 0-542.4 1232 1990 0.56% 13.64% 85.80%-4.95 -1.6 6
1908-04-12 Ujpest D 1-152.9 1221 1337 37.79% 15.82% 46.39%-0.39 +1.0 12
1908-04-12 @ Torekves SC D 1-152.9 1337 1221 46.39% 15.82% 37.79%+0.39 -1.0 14
1908-04-26 Budapest TC FW54.0 1231 1628 10.55% 15.42% 74.03%-2.10 +0.0 8
1908-04-26 @ Fovarosi TC FL54.0 1628 1231 74.03% 15.42% 10.55%+2.10 +0.0 12
1908-04-26 Budapesti AK W 4-354.9 1222 1423 27.00% 15.76% 57.24%-0.90 +26.5 14
1908-04-26 @ Torekves SC L 3-454.9 1423 1222 57.24% 15.76% 27.00%+0.90 -26.5 10
1908-05-10 Ujpest W 2-044.3 1841 1336 82.97% 14.73% 2.30%+3.41 +2.8 21
1908-05-10 @ Ferencvaros L 0-244.3 1336 1841 2.30% 14.73% 82.97%-3.41 -2.8 14
1908-05-10 Magyar AC W 3-165.0 1861 1991 35.89% 15.81% 48.30%-0.47 +42.3 25
1908-05-10 @ MTK Budapest L 1-365.0 1991 1861 48.30% 15.81% 35.89%+0.47 -42.3 22
1908-05-10 Fovarosi TC L 1-537.1 1020 1231 25.85% 15.75% 58.40%-0.96 -45.0 2
1908-05-10 @ Typographia SC W 5-137.1 1231 1020 58.40% 15.75% 25.85%+0.96 +45.0 10
1908-05-17 Budapest TC W 1-051.5 1844 1628 73.48% 15.56% 10.96%+1.65 +6.9 23
1908-05-17 @ Ferencvaros L 0-151.5 1628 1844 10.96% 15.56% 73.48%-1.65 -6.8 12
1908-05-24 Torekves SC W 4-144.9 1903 1248 84.88% 14.12% 1.00%+4.33 +1.5 27
1908-05-24 @ MTK Budapest L 1-444.9 1248 1903 1.00% 14.12% 84.88%-4.33 -1.5 14
1908-05-24 Magyar AC W 2-173.3 1333 1949 3.26% 14.75% 81.99%-3.43 +41.4 16
1908-05-24 @ Ujpest L 1-273.3 1949 1333 81.99% 14.75% 3.26%+3.43 -41.4 22
1908-05-28 Typographia SC FW53.8 1851 975 86.67% 13.04% 0.29%+5.68 +0.0 25
1908-05-28 @ Ferencvaros FL53.8 975 1851 0.29% 13.04% 86.67%-5.68 +0.0 2
1908-05-28 MTK Budapest D 0-069.9 1621 1904 18.55% 15.65% 65.80%-1.41 +6.8 13
1908-05-28 @ Budapest TC D 0-069.9 1904 1621 65.80% 15.65% 18.55%+1.41 -6.8 28
1908-05-28 Torekves SC W 8-040.0 1907 1247 84.94% 14.09% 0.97%+4.36 +4.2 24
1908-05-28 @ Magyar AC L 0-840.0 1247 1907 0.97% 14.09% 84.94%-4.36 -4.2 14
1908-05-31 Ujpest L 0-148.8 1396 1375 56.38% 15.81% 27.81%+0.46 -29.9 10
1908-05-31 @ Budapesti AK W 1-048.8 1375 1396 27.81% 15.81% 56.38%-0.46 +29.9 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1908-03-22 2.05% Torekves SC 1142 3 @ Budapest TC 1668 2
2 1908-05-24 3.26% @ Ujpest 1333 2 Magyar AC 1949 1
3 1907-09-22 8.29% @ Torekves SC 1093 3 Budapest TC 1536 2
4 1908-03-01 11.40% Fovarosi TC 1172 2 @ Ujpest 1381 0
5 1908-04-26 27.00% @ Torekves SC 1222 4 Budapesti AK 1423 3
6 1908-05-31 27.81% Ujpest 1375 1 @ Budapesti AK 1396 0
7 1907-10-13 29.79% @ Ujpest 1352 3 Budapesti AK 1529 1
8 1908-02-06 31.20% @ Ferencvaros 1774 4 Magyar AC 1941 2
9 1908-05-10 35.89% @ MTK Budapest 1861 3 Magyar AC 1991 1
10 1907-10-27 40.58% Budapesti AK 1419 5 @ Typographia SC 1343 1
11 1907-10-20 40.61% Typographia SC 1321 2 @ Fovarosi TC 1245 1
12 1908-02-23 41.59% @ Torekves SC 1116 4 Fovarosi TC 1206 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1907-11-10 165.56 Budapest TC 17 1548 65.02% @ Typographia SC 0 1273 19.32% 15.66%
2 1908-03-01 84.70 Magyar AC 5 1900 50.14% @ Budapest TC 0 1755 34.06% 15.80%
3 1908-03-01 73.34 Fovarosi TC 2 1172 11.40% @ Ujpest 0 1381 73.02% 15.58%
4 1907-10-27 70.67 Budapesti AK 5 1419 40.58% @ Typographia SC 1 1343 43.59% 15.83%
5 1907-10-20 68.13 @ Magyar AC 7 1852 57.05% Ferencvaros 1 1825 27.15% 15.81%
6 1907-10-20 62.72 MTK Budapest 7 1783 67.34% @ Budapesti AK 0 1482 17.04% 15.62%
7 1907-11-17 51.75 Budapest TC 6 1713 68.19% @ Ujpest 0 1402 16.21% 15.60%
8 1907-10-13 47.22 @ Ujpest 3 1352 29.79% Budapesti AK 1 1529 54.43% 15.78%
9 1908-05-10 44.99 Fovarosi TC 5 1231 58.40% @ Typographia SC 1 1020 25.85% 15.75%
10 1908-05-10 42.33 @ MTK Budapest 3 1861 35.89% Magyar AC 1 1991 48.30% 15.81%
11 1908-05-24 41.41 @ Ujpest 2 1333 3.26% Magyar AC 1 1949 81.99% 14.75%
12 1908-02-06 41.21 @ Ferencvaros 4 1774 31.20% Magyar AC 2 1941 53.01% 15.79%
13 1907-09-29 40.79 Ferencvaros 6 1755 71.93% @ Ujpest 0 1392 12.57% 15.50%
14 1908-03-22 39.98 Torekves SC 3 1142 2.05% @ Budapest TC 2 1668 83.30% 14.65%
15 1908-03-25 38.80 Torekves SC 2 1182 47.29% @ Typographia SC 0 1059 36.90% 15.82%
16 1907-09-15 37.85 @ Ujpest 2 1355 48.32% Typographia SC 0 1396 35.85% 15.83%
17 1907-09-22 36.48 @ Torekves SC 3 1093 8.29% Budapest TC 2 1536 76.41% 15.30%
18 1908-02-23 33.93 @ Torekves SC 4 1116 41.59% Fovarosi TC 2 1206 42.58% 15.83%
19 1907-11-24 30.46 Ujpest 4 1350 46.71% @ Fovarosi TC 2 1231 37.47% 15.82%
20 1908-05-31 29.91 Ujpest 1 1375 27.81% @ Budapesti AK 0 1396 56.38% 15.81%
21 1907-10-13 29.23 Ferencvaros 9 1796 76.53% @ Typographia SC 1 1350 8.18% 15.30%
22 1907-11-17 29.16 Ferencvaros 4 1745 63.12% @ Budapesti AK 1 1490 21.19% 15.69%
23 1907-09-22 28.59 @ MTK Budapest 4 1750 49.36% Ferencvaros 2 1784 34.81% 15.83%
24 1907-09-29 28.02 @ Fovarosi TC 6 1243 65.95% Torekves SC 2 1130 18.32% 15.73%
25 1907-11-24 26.48 @ Magyar AC 16 1914 82.02% Budapesti AK 0 1461 3.06% 14.92%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1908-02-23 77.3 @ Ferencvaros 3 1816 47.62% MTK Budapest 3 1863 36.55% 15.83%
2 1908-05-24 73.3 @ Ujpest 2 1333 3.26% Magyar AC 1 1949 81.99% 14.75%
3 1907-11-01 72.8 @ Budapest TC 2 1545 25.72% Ferencvaros 2 1757 58.54% 15.74%
4 1907-09-29 72.1 @ Magyar AC 1 1857 62.73% MTK Budapest 1 1778 21.51% 15.76%
5 1908-03-08 71.2 @ Budapesti AK 3 1435 23.17% Budapest TC 3 1671 61.11% 15.72%
6 1907-10-27 70.0 @ Fovarosi TC 2 1223 2.08% Magyar AC 2 1920 83.50% 14.43%
7 1908-05-28 69.9 @ Budapest TC 0 1621 18.55% MTK Budapest 0 1904 65.80% 15.65%
8 1908-02-06 69.1 @ Ferencvaros 4 1774 31.20% Magyar AC 2 1941 53.01% 15.79%
9 1908-03-08 68.1 @ Ujpest 1 1307 4.51% MTK Budapest 1 1863 80.53% 14.96%
10 1908-05-10 65.0 @ MTK Budapest 3 1861 35.89% Magyar AC 1 1991 48.30% 15.81%
11 1907-09-22 63.4 @ MTK Budapest 4 1750 49.36% Ferencvaros 2 1784 34.81% 15.83%
12 1907-11-24 62.5 @ MTK Budapest 4 1852 63.48% Budapest TC 3 1765 20.77% 15.76%
13 1908-03-22 62.3 Torekves SC 3 1142 2.05% @ Budapest TC 2 1668 83.30% 14.65%
14 1907-11-10 60.0 @ Ferencvaros 2 1754 84.97% Torekves SC 2 1091 0.95% 14.08%
15 1907-09-22 57.7 @ Torekves SC 3 1093 8.29% Budapest TC 2 1536 76.41% 15.30%
16 1907-09-08 57.3 @ Magyar AC 4 1845 77.78% Budapest TC 3 1540 6.86% 15.36%
17 1907-10-20 56.1 @ Magyar AC 7 1852 57.05% Ferencvaros 1 1825 27.15% 15.81%
18 1908-03-01 56.1 Magyar AC 5 1900 50.14% @ Budapest TC 0 1755 34.06% 15.80%
19 1908-04-26 54.9 @ Torekves SC 4 1222 27.00% Budapesti AK 3 1423 57.24% 15.76%
20 1907-09-29 53.8 @ Budapest TC 2 1500 47.70% Budapesti AK 1 1546 36.47% 15.83%
21 1907-11-17 53.3 Ferencvaros 4 1745 63.12% @ Budapesti AK 1 1490 21.19% 15.69%
22 1908-04-12 52.9 @ Torekves SC 1 1221 37.79% Ujpest 1 1337 46.39% 15.82%
23 1907-10-13 52.7 @ Ujpest 3 1352 29.79% Budapesti AK 1 1529 54.43% 15.78%
24 1908-02-06 51.5 @ Fovarosi TC 0 1201 23.38% Budapesti AK 0 1434 60.90% 15.72%
25 1908-03-15 51.5 Magyar AC 2 1987 80.32% @ Budapesti AK 1 1438 4.69% 14.98%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1907-10-20 30.5 @ Ujpest 2 1399 77.55% Torekves SC 0 1099 7.07% 15.38%
2 1907-10-06 30.9 @ Budapesti AK 1 1527 81.42% Torekves SC 0 1102 3.57% 15.01%
3 1907-10-13 32.2 @ Budapest TC 5 1519 75.22% Fovarosi TC 0 1271 9.29% 15.50%
4 1907-09-22 32.5 @ Budapesti AK 4 1527 76.03% Fovarosi TC 0 1262 8.51% 15.46%
5 1908-03-01 32.6 @ Budapesti AK 3 1429 79.12% Typographia SC 1 1087 5.62% 15.26%
6 1907-11-17 34.0 @ MTK Budapest 5 1850 85.68% Typographia SC 0 1107 0.61% 13.71%
7 1907-09-15 34.5 MTK Budapest 5 1744 82.61% @ Torekves SC 1 1098 2.76% 14.64%
8 1907-11-10 34.6 Budapest TC 17 1548 65.02% @ Typographia SC 0 1273 19.32% 15.66%
9 1908-03-01 34.7 Ferencvaros 6 1815 82.95% @ Torekves SC 0 1150 2.49% 14.56%
10 1908-02-06 35.0 @ Budapest TC 3 1754 85.00% Typographia SC 1 1088 0.93% 14.07%
11 1908-03-08 36.3 @ Magyar AC 20 1984 86.86% Typographia SC 0 1081 0.25% 12.89%
12 1908-05-10 37.1 Fovarosi TC 5 1231 58.40% @ Typographia SC 1 1020 25.85% 15.75%
13 1907-09-29 37.5 @ Fovarosi TC 6 1243 65.95% Torekves SC 2 1130 18.32% 15.73%
14 1907-12-01 38.3 @ Torekves SC 1 1098 52.89% Typographia SC 0 1106 31.29% 15.82%
15 1908-03-25 39.2 Torekves SC 2 1182 47.29% @ Typographia SC 0 1059 36.90% 15.82%
16 1908-05-28 40.0 @ Magyar AC 8 1907 84.94% Torekves SC 0 1247 0.97% 14.09%
17 1908-03-15 40.3 Ujpest 4 1318 61.50% @ Typographia SC 2 1078 22.79% 15.71%
18 1907-11-17 40.8 Magyar AC 3 1913 84.99% @ Torekves SC 1 1099 1.09% 13.92%
19 1907-09-15 41.5 @ Ujpest 2 1355 48.32% Typographia SC 0 1396 35.85% 15.83%
20 1908-03-25 41.5 Ferencvaros 7 1823 81.16% @ Fovarosi TC 1 1243 3.96% 14.88%
21 1908-04-12 42.4 @ Magyar AC 5 1990 85.80% Fovarosi TC 0 1232 0.56% 13.64%
22 1907-09-29 44.3 Ferencvaros 6 1755 71.93% @ Ujpest 0 1392 12.57% 15.50%
23 1907-11-24 44.3 @ Magyar AC 16 1914 82.02% Budapesti AK 0 1461 3.06% 14.92%
24 1908-05-10 44.3 @ Ferencvaros 2 1841 82.97% Ujpest 0 1336 2.30% 14.73%
25 1907-10-13 44.4 Ferencvaros 9 1796 76.53% @ Typographia SC 1 1350 8.18% 15.30%