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1908-09 I. Osztály Season

72 games

Final

Champion

Ferencvaros

28 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1906-07

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ferencvaros

4.24 points above expected

28 points · 23.76 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ujpest

3.10 points below expected

8 points · 11.10 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ferencvaros Champion 16 14 0 2 28 69 21 +48 23.76 +4.24
2 Magyar AC 16 8 6 2 22 33 25 +8 24.31 -2.31
3 Budapest TC 16 9 3 4 21 27 16 +11 19.59 +1.41
4 MTK Budapest 16 9 2 5 20 43 19 +24 22.88 -2.88
5 Fovarosi TC 16 8 2 6 18 36 36 0 13.98 +4.02
6 Budapesti AK 16 6 2 8 14 24 28 -4 13.11 +0.89
7 Torekves SC 16 4 3 9 11 30 49 -19 10.17 +0.83
8 Ujpest 16 3 2 11 8 19 41 -22 11.10 -3.10
9 Typographia SC 16 0 2 14 2 13 59 -46 5.10 -3.10

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ferencvaros 28 23.76 +4.24
2 Fovarosi TC 18 13.98 +4.02
3 Budapest TC 21 19.59 +1.41
4 Budapesti AK 14 13.11 +0.89
5 Torekves SC 11 10.17 +0.83

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ujpest 8 11.10 -3.10
2 Typographia SC 2 5.10 -3.10
3 MTK Budapest 20 22.88 -2.88
4 Magyar AC 22 24.31 -2.31
5 Torekves SC 11 10.17 +0.83

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fovarosi TC 3 Dec 24 – Feb 21 1 in 59
2 Ferencvaros 9 Feb 14 – Oct 4 1 in 21
3 Budapesti AK 2 Dec 8 – Dec 27 1 in 21
4 Ujpest 2 May 16 – May 23 1 in 15
5 Magyar AC 3 Sep 20 – Oct 18 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ujpest 8 Dec 6 – May 2 1 in 41
2 Fovarosi TC 3 Apr 25 – Jun 10 1 in 27
3 Typographia SC 7 Nov 22 – Feb 28 1 in 5
4 Budapesti AK 2 Feb 14 – Feb 21 1 in 4
5 Torekves SC 3 Nov 15 – Dec 6 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fovarosi TC 4 Oct 25 – Dec 6 1 in 26
2 Torekves SC 2 Oct 18 – Oct 25 1 in 21
3 Budapest TC 6 Mar 7 – May 16 1 in 15
4 Budapesti AK 2 Dec 8 – Dec 27 1 in 7
5 Typographia SC 1 Nov 8 – Nov 8 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Magyar AC 3 Oct 25 – Nov 22 1 in 125
2 Fovarosi TC 3 Apr 25 – Jun 10 1 in 7
3 Ujpest 8 Dec 6 – May 2 1 in 6
4 MTK Budapest 2 Sep 20 – Sep 27 1 in 6
5 Budapest TC 2 Sep 27 – Oct 18 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ferencvaros 1670 26 +83 10 7.7 +2.3
Magyar AC 1550 22 -21 6 6.9 -0.9
Budapest TC 1447 21 +62 8 5.7 +2.3
MTK Budapest 1560 20 +10 7 7.3 -0.3
Fovarosi TC 1259 18 -72 2 5.3 -3.3
Budapesti AK 1260 14 -12 4 4.6 -0.6
Torekves SC 1106 11 -54 2 3.1 -1.1
Ujpest 1138 8 +24 4 2.5 +1.5
Typographia SC 883 2 -34 1 2.2 -1.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BT BA FER FT MB MA TS TS UJP
Budapest TC —
2-0-0
3.86
1-0-1
1.86
1-0-1
3.87
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
1.88
1-1-0
4.47
2-0-0
5.14
2-0-0
4.39
Budapesti AK
0-0-2
1.82
 —
0-0-2
1.20
1-0-1
2.54
1-0-1
0.99
0-1-1
1.01
0-1-1
3.66
2-0-0
4.69
2-0-0
3.31
Ferencvaros
1-0-1
3.81
2-0-0
4.48
 —
2-0-0
4.78
2-0-0
2.90
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
5.07
2-0-0
5.29
2-0-0
5.30
Fovarosi TC
1-0-1
1.81
1-0-1
3.13
0-0-2
0.90
 —
1-0-1
1.06
0-2-0
1.07
2-0-0
3.84
2-0-0
4.61
1-0-1
3.18
MTK Budapest
1-1-0
3.53
1-0-1
4.69
0-0-2
2.78
1-0-1
4.62
 —
1-0-1
2.13
2-0-0
5.05
2-0-0
5.29
1-1-0
4.89
Magyar AC
1-1-0
3.79
1-1-0
4.68
1-0-1
2.93
0-2-0
4.62
1-0-1
3.54
 —
1-1-0
5.10
1-1-0
5.34
2-0-0
4.95
Torekves SC
0-1-1
1.22
1-1-0
2.01
0-0-2
0.62
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
0.65
0-1-1
0.60
 —
2-0-0
4.05
1-0-1
2.39
Typographia SC
0-0-2
0.56
0-0-2
0.99
0-0-2
0.43
0-0-2
1.08
0-0-2
0.42
0-1-1
0.38
0-0-2
1.62
 —
0-1-1
1.35
Ujpest
0-0-2
1.28
0-0-2
2.36
0-0-2
0.42
1-0-1
2.49
0-1-1
0.80
0-0-2
0.74
1-0-1
3.28
1-1-0
4.33
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.70 +4.1
Allowed 0.77 -4.8
Differential 0.93 +2.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.39%5.56%2.08%2.78%2.78%2.78%17.36%
15.56%5.56%9.03%2.78%2.08%4.17%29.17%
22.08%9.03%6.94%2.08%1.39%2.08%23.61%
32.78%2.78%2.08%1.39%1.39%0.69%11.11%
42.78%2.08%1.39%1.39%——7.64%
5+2.78%4.17%2.08%0.69%—1.39%11.11%
Total17.36%29.17%23.61%11.11%7.64%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 2.03 +0.00
SD 2.02 2.02 3.09
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 12 12 +10
Min -1 -1 -10

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%—12.50%——25.00%
112.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
212.50%12.50%6.25%———31.25%
36.25%—————6.25%
4——6.25%———6.25%
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total43.75%25.00%18.75%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.00 +0.69
SD 1.62 1.10 2.21
CV 0.96 1.10 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%6.25%—6.25%—18.75%
16.25%6.25%12.50%12.50%——37.50%
2—25.00%6.25%———31.25%
3————6.25%—6.25%
4———————
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total12.50%37.50%25.00%12.50%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.75 -0.25
SD 1.26 1.24 2.02
CV 0.84 0.71 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
16.25%—————6.25%
2—12.50%——6.25%—18.75%
36.25%6.25%———6.25%18.75%
46.25%—6.25%———12.50%
5+6.25%18.75%12.50%——6.25%43.75%
Total25.00%37.50%18.75%—6.25%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.25 1.25 +3.00
SD 3.38 1.53 3.48
CV 0.79 1.22 —
Max 12 5 +10
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
16.25%—18.75%6.25%—6.25%37.50%
2—12.50%6.25%———18.75%
36.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%—31.25%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+——6.25%———6.25%
Total18.75%18.75%37.50%12.50%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 2.25 +0.00
SD 1.24 2.59 3.16
CV 0.55 1.15 —
Max 5 11 +4
Min 1 0 -10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.75%————18.75%
16.25%12.50%6.25%———25.00%
26.25%———6.25%—12.50%
3—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
46.25%——6.25%——12.50%
5+6.25%12.50%————18.75%
Total25.00%50.00%12.50%6.25%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.69 1.19 +1.50
SD 2.57 1.11 2.85
CV 0.96 0.93 —
Max 8 4 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%———6.25%—12.50%
112.50%12.50%———6.25%31.25%
2—12.50%12.50%———25.00%
3—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
Total25.00%37.50%12.50%12.50%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.56 +0.50
SD 1.57 1.50 2.19
CV 0.76 0.96 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.25%——12.50%18.75%
1——6.25%—6.25%6.25%18.75%
2——18.75%12.50%—6.25%37.50%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4—12.50%—6.25%——18.75%
5+———————
Total—12.50%37.50%18.75%6.25%25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 3.06 -1.19
SD 1.36 1.65 2.69
CV 0.73 0.54 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.25%12.50%12.50%6.25%37.50%
1—6.25%25.00%—6.25%6.25%43.75%
2——6.25%6.25%—6.25%18.75%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—6.25%37.50%18.75%18.75%18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 3.69 -2.88
SD 0.75 2.77 2.70
CV 0.92 0.75 —
Max 2 12 +0
Min 0 1 -10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.75%———6.25%25.00%
1—6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%12.50%37.50%
2—6.25%6.25%——6.25%18.75%
36.25%—————6.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+—————6.25%6.25%
Total6.25%37.50%12.50%6.25%6.25%31.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 2.50 -1.38
SD 1.26 2.45 2.73
CV 1.12 0.98 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ferencvaros 1670 28 23.76 +4.24 97.0% 18 19 22 24 25 28 29
MTK Budapest 1560 20 22.88 -2.88 22.0% 14 17 21 23 25 27 30
Magyar AC 1550 22 24.31 -2.31 26.0% 17 19 22 24 26 29 31
Budapest TC 1447 21 19.59 +1.41 73.0% 11 14 18 20 22 25 27
Budapesti AK 1260 14 13.11 +0.89 63.0% 8 9 11 13 15 18 20
Fovarosi TC 1259 18 13.98 +4.02 93.0% 6 9 12 14 16 19 20
Ujpest 1138 8 11.10 -3.10 15.0% 5 7 9 11 13 16 17
Torekves SC 1106 11 10.17 +0.83 67.0% 5 6 8 10 12 15 16
Typographia SC 883 2 5.10 -3.10 16.0% 0 1 3 5 7 9 11

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.50%
No Edge
48.61%15.28%36.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 48.57 Elo pts.
177 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.03 goals
Neutral
-2+0.27+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Open
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
38%
Ferencvaros, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.38/gm
Runaway
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.29 * Some Luck: 2.29 to 3.43 * Lucky: 3.43 to 4.57 * Wild Swing: 4.57 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.63 * Close: 0.63 to 0.95 * Off: 0.95 to 1.26 * Way Off: 1.26 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.80 points
Some Luck
02.867
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.67
Close
00.792
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
97.00%
Ferencvaros
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
15.00%
Ujpest
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Lopsided
00.150.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 256.54
2.18
Wide Separation
11.61.852.152.75
Interquartile Edge
92%
Wide Edge
50%65.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Some Drama
0%37%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Very Frequent
0%43%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.45
Highly Predictable
00.462
Matchup Imbalance
0.61
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.03
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.80
Near-Lock
00.450.590.721
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Chalky
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Solid Favorites
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.75
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.18
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.084
Well Within Noise
00.1680.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Ferencvaros38.00%29.00%21.00%12.00%—————
Magyar AC35.00%33.00%24.00%8.00%—————
Budapest TC3.00%10.00%22.00%47.00%14.00%2.00%2.00%——
MTK Budapest24.00%28.00%31.00%17.00%—————
Fovarosi TC——1.00%11.00%38.00%27.00%16.00%6.00%1.00%
Budapesti AK——1.00%5.00%30.00%31.00%22.00%11.00%—
Torekves SC————9.00%16.00%26.00%42.00%7.00%
Ujpest————9.00%24.00%33.00%31.00%3.00%
Typographia SC——————1.00%10.00%89.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Budapest TC 100%
Budapesti AK 100%
Ferencvaros 100%
Fovarosi TC 100%
MTK Budapest 100%
Magyar AC 100%
Torekves SC 100%
Typographia SC 100%
Ujpest 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1908-09-20 Ferencvaros W 4-256.5 1427 1531 37.44% 16.41% 46.15%-0.31 +21.8 2
1908-09-20 @ Budapest TC L 2-456.5 1531 1427 46.15% 16.41% 37.44%+0.31 -21.8 0
1908-09-20 Torekves SC D 2-257.1 1227 1140 61.99% 16.30% 21.71%+0.77 -2.3 1
1908-09-20 @ Budapesti AK D 2-257.1 1140 1227 21.71% 16.30% 61.99%-0.77 +2.3 1
1908-09-20 MTK Budapest W 1-051.2 1611 1549 59.32% 16.35% 24.34%+0.63 +8.6 2
1908-09-20 @ Magyar AC L 0-151.2 1549 1611 24.34% 16.35% 59.32%-0.63 -8.6 0
1908-09-27 Budapesti AK W 2-136.5 1510 1225 76.17% 15.69% 8.14%+1.89 +2.9 2
1908-09-27 @ Ferencvaros L 1-236.5 1225 1510 8.14% 15.69% 76.17%-1.89 -2.9 1
1908-09-27 Budapest TC W 2-148.6 1620 1448 69.36% 16.10% 14.53%+1.25 +5.1 4
1908-09-27 @ Magyar AC L 1-248.6 1448 1620 14.53% 16.10% 69.36%-1.25 -5.1 2
1908-09-27 Ujpest D 1-156.8 1540 1248 76.56% 15.66% 7.78%+1.94 -5.6 1
1908-09-27 @ MTK Budapest D 1-156.8 1248 1540 7.78% 15.66% 76.56%-1.94 +5.5 1
1908-09-27 Typographia SC W 2-135.6 1167 973 71.00% 16.03% 12.97%+1.38 +4.6 2
1908-09-27 @ Fovarosi TC L 1-235.6 973 1167 12.97% 16.03% 71.00%-1.38 -4.6 0
1908-10-04 Fovarosi TC W 4-342.5 1535 1171 79.33% 15.32% 5.35%+2.33 +1.8 3
1908-10-04 @ MTK Budapest L 3-442.5 1171 1535 5.35% 15.32% 79.33%-2.33 -1.8 2
1908-10-11 Typographia SC W 2-134.6 1222 968 74.64% 15.82% 9.55%+1.71 +3.4 3
1908-10-11 @ Budapesti AK L 1-234.6 968 1222 9.55% 15.82% 74.64%-1.71 -3.4 0
1908-10-11 Torekves SC W 6-129.2 1512 1142 79.55% 15.29% 5.16%+2.37 +7.2 4
1908-10-11 @ Ferencvaros L 1-629.2 1142 1512 5.16% 15.29% 79.55%-2.37 -7.2 1
1908-10-18 Torekves SC D 2-258.0 1443 1135 77.24% 15.59% 7.18%+2.02 -4.2 3
1908-10-18 @ Budapest TC D 2-258.0 1135 1443 7.18% 15.59% 77.24%-2.02 +4.2 2
1908-10-18 Typographia SC W 8-125.7 1537 965 84.22% 14.06% 1.72%+3.51 +3.2 5
1908-10-18 @ MTK Budapest L 1-825.7 965 1537 1.72% 14.06% 84.22%-3.51 -3.2 0
1908-10-18 Magyar AC L 0-137.4 1253 1625 11.19% 15.74% 73.07%-1.82 -4.2 1
1908-10-18 @ Ujpest W 1-037.4 1625 1253 73.07% 15.74% 11.19%+1.82 +4.2 6
1908-10-25 Magyar AC D 2-260.3 1139 1629 6.04% 15.17% 78.78%-2.49 +4.4 3
1908-10-25 @ Torekves SC D 2-260.3 1629 1139 78.78% 15.17% 6.04%+2.49 -4.4 7
1908-10-25 Fovarosi TC L 1-349.0 1249 1170 61.15% 16.32% 22.53%+0.73 -31.7 1
1908-10-25 @ Ujpest W 3-149.0 1170 1249 22.53% 16.32% 61.15%-0.73 +31.7 4
1908-11-08 Budapesti AK W 2-031.6 1439 1226 72.29% 15.97% 11.75%+1.49 +8.3 5
1908-11-08 @ Budapest TC L 0-231.6 1226 1439 11.75% 15.97% 72.29%-1.49 -8.3 3
1908-11-08 Ferencvaros L 2-462.8 1540 1520 54.45% 16.40% 29.16%+0.39 -25.3 5
1908-11-08 @ MTK Budapest W 4-262.8 1520 1540 29.16% 16.40% 54.45%-0.39 +25.3 6
1908-11-08 Typographia SC D 2-257.1 1217 962 74.72% 15.81% 9.46%+1.72 -3.9 2
1908-11-08 @ Ujpest D 2-257.1 962 1217 9.46% 15.81% 74.72%-1.72 +3.9 1
1908-11-15 Budapesti AK D 1-158.2 1625 1217 80.69% 15.09% 4.22%+2.58 -6.2 8
1908-11-15 @ Magyar AC D 1-158.2 1217 1625 4.22% 15.09% 80.69%-2.58 +6.2 4
1908-11-15 Torekves SC W 5-240.0 1201 1144 58.82% 16.35% 24.83%+0.60 +17.5 6
1908-11-15 @ Fovarosi TC L 2-540.0 1144 1201 24.83% 16.35% 58.82%-0.60 -17.5 3
1908-11-22 MTK Budapest L 0-149.9 1447 1515 42.76% 16.43% 40.81%-0.10 -14.0 5
1908-11-22 @ Budapest TC W 1-049.9 1515 1447 40.81% 16.43% 42.76%+0.10 +14.0 7
1908-11-22 Fovarosi TC D 2-261.8 1618 1219 80.47% 15.13% 4.41%+2.54 -4.6 9
1908-11-22 @ Magyar AC D 2-261.8 1219 1618 4.41% 15.13% 80.47%-2.54 +4.6 7
1908-11-22 Ferencvaros L 2-1226.4 966 1545 3.73% 14.65% 81.62%-3.00 -8.0 1
1908-11-22 @ Typographia SC W 12-226.4 1545 966 81.62% 14.65% 3.73%+3.00 +8.0 8
1908-11-22 Torekves SC W 4-135.6 1213 1126 61.96% 16.30% 21.74%+0.77 +18.0 4
1908-11-22 @ Ujpest L 1-435.6 1126 1213 21.74% 16.30% 61.96%-0.77 -18.0 3
1908-12-06 Ujpest W 2-136.9 1434 1231 71.55% 16.01% 12.44%+1.42 +4.4 7
1908-12-06 @ Budapest TC L 1-236.9 1231 1434 12.44% 16.01% 71.55%-1.42 -4.4 4
1908-12-06 Typographia SC W 4-024.0 1614 958 85.46% 13.45% 1.08%+3.99 +1.4 11
1908-12-06 @ Magyar AC L 0-424.0 958 1614 1.08% 13.45% 85.46%-3.99 -1.5 1
1908-12-06 Torekves SC W 2-028.7 1529 1108 81.05% 15.01% 3.94%+2.66 +2.8 9
1908-12-06 @ MTK Budapest L 0-228.7 1108 1529 3.94% 15.01% 81.05%-2.66 -2.8 3
1908-12-06 Budapesti AK W 2-141.6 1223 1224 51.90% 16.41% 31.69%+0.28 +10.2 9
1908-12-06 @ Fovarosi TC L 1-241.6 1224 1223 31.69% 16.41% 51.90%-0.28 -10.2 4
1908-12-08 MTK Budapest W 2-155.1 1213 1531 14.65% 15.95% 69.40%-1.52 +20.8 6
1908-12-08 @ Budapesti AK L 1-255.1 1531 1213 69.40% 15.95% 14.65%+1.52 -20.8 9
1908-12-08 Fovarosi TC W 3-135.6 1553 1234 77.70% 15.54% 6.77%+2.09 +4.2 10
1908-12-08 @ Ferencvaros L 1-335.6 1234 1553 6.77% 15.54% 77.70%-2.09 -4.2 9
1908-12-08 Typographia SC W 4-133.8 1105 956 67.65% 16.16% 16.18%+1.12 +13.7 5
1908-12-08 @ Torekves SC L 1-433.8 956 1105 16.18% 16.16% 67.65%-1.12 -13.7 1
1908-12-20 Ferencvaros W 5-360.3 1615 1557 58.85% 16.35% 24.79%+0.61 +12.1 13
1908-12-20 @ Magyar AC L 3-560.3 1557 1615 24.79% 16.35% 58.85%-0.61 -12.1 10
1908-12-24 Fovarosi TC L 0-348.0 1438 1229 71.96% 15.99% 12.06%+1.46 -62.8 7
1908-12-24 @ Budapest TC W 3-048.0 1229 1438 12.06% 15.99% 71.96%-1.46 +62.7 11
1908-12-27 Typographia SC W 3-025.8 1375 942 81.38% 14.94% 3.68%+2.73 +3.9 9
1908-12-27 @ Budapest TC L 0-325.8 942 1375 3.68% 14.94% 81.38%-2.73 -3.9 1
1908-12-27 Budapesti AK L 0-538.8 1227 1234 50.97% 16.42% 32.61%+0.24 -71.9 4
1908-12-27 @ Ujpest W 5-038.8 1234 1227 32.61% 16.42% 50.97%-0.24 +71.9 8
1909-02-14 Ferencvaros L 0-435.1 1306 1545 21.36% 16.19% 62.46%-1.07 -27.3 8
1909-02-14 @ Budapesti AK W 4-035.1 1545 1306 62.46% 16.19% 21.36%+1.07 +27.3 12
1909-02-14 Magyar AC W 4-052.9 1511 1627 35.81% 16.40% 47.79%-0.38 +55.0 11
1909-02-14 @ MTK Budapest L 0-452.9 1627 1511 47.79% 16.40% 35.81%+0.38 -55.0 13
1909-02-14 Ujpest W 4-140.0 1119 1155 47.15% 16.43% 36.42%+0.08 +28.2 7
1909-02-14 @ Torekves SC L 1-440.0 1155 1119 36.42% 16.43% 47.15%-0.08 -28.2 4
1909-02-14 Fovarosi TC L 0-427.4 939 1292 12.26% 15.81% 71.92%-1.72 -16.3 1
1909-02-14 @ Typographia SC W 4-027.4 1292 939 71.92% 15.81% 12.26%+1.72 +16.3 13
1909-02-21 Budapest TC L 0-141.3 1279 1379 38.05% 16.41% 45.54%-0.29 -12.7 8
1909-02-21 @ Budapesti AK W 1-041.3 1379 1279 45.54% 16.41% 38.05%+0.29 +12.7 11
1909-02-21 Typographia SC W 2-131.7 1573 922 85.39% 13.49% 1.12%+3.96 +0.4 14
1909-02-21 @ Ferencvaros L 1-231.7 922 1573 1.12% 13.49% 85.39%-3.96 -0.4 1
1909-02-21 Torekves SC W 2-134.7 1572 1147 81.17% 14.99% 3.84%+2.68 +1.4 15
1909-02-21 @ Magyar AC L 1-234.7 1147 1572 3.84% 14.99% 81.17%-2.68 -1.4 7
1909-02-21 MTK Budapest W 1-053.3 1309 1566 19.65% 16.14% 64.21%-1.18 +20.3 15
1909-02-21 @ Fovarosi TC L 0-153.3 1566 1309 64.21% 16.14% 19.65%+1.18 -20.3 11
1909-02-28 Ujpest W 1-033.7 1266 1127 66.82% 16.19% 16.99%+1.07 +6.2 10
1909-02-28 @ Budapesti AK L 0-133.7 1127 1266 16.99% 16.19% 66.82%-1.07 -6.2 4
1909-02-28 Budapest TC W 3-037.8 1573 1392 70.10% 16.07% 13.83%+1.30 +14.0 16
1909-02-28 @ Ferencvaros L 0-337.8 1392 1573 13.83% 16.07% 70.10%-1.30 -14.1 11
1909-02-28 Magyar AC D 3-367.3 1329 1574 20.82% 16.17% 63.00%-1.11 +2.0 16
1909-02-28 @ Fovarosi TC D 3-367.3 1574 1329 63.00% 16.17% 20.82%+1.11 -2.0 16
1909-02-28 MTK Budapest L 0-523.8 922 1545 2.94% 14.37% 82.69%-3.25 -4.9 1
1909-02-28 @ Typographia SC W 5-023.8 1545 922 82.69% 14.37% 2.94%+3.25 +4.9 13
1909-03-07 MTK Budapest W 1-051.4 1587 1550 56.43% 16.38% 27.19%+0.49 +9.5 18
1909-03-07 @ Ferencvaros L 0-151.4 1550 1587 27.19% 16.38% 56.43%-0.49 -9.5 13
1909-03-07 Budapesti AK W 4-354.2 1146 1272 34.51% 16.39% 49.10%-0.44 +13.8 9
1909-03-07 @ Torekves SC L 3-454.2 1272 1146 49.10% 16.39% 34.51%+0.44 -13.8 10
1909-03-07 Budapest TC L 0-134.8 1121 1378 19.65% 16.14% 64.21%-1.18 -7.1 4
1909-03-07 @ Ujpest W 1-034.8 1378 1121 64.21% 16.14% 19.65%+1.18 +7.1 13
1909-03-11 Magyar AC D 1-154.2 917 1572 2.48% 14.16% 83.36%-3.42 +6.6 2
1909-03-11 @ Typographia SC D 1-154.2 1572 917 83.36% 14.16% 2.48%+3.42 -6.6 17
1909-03-20 Fovarosi TC W 2-145.2 1258 1331 42.00% 16.43% 41.57%-0.13 +12.9 12
1909-03-20 @ Budapesti AK L 1-245.2 1331 1258 41.57% 16.43% 42.00%+0.13 -12.9 16
1909-03-20 Magyar AC W 5-151.4 1596 1565 55.82% 16.39% 27.80%+0.46 +28.8 20
1909-03-20 @ Ferencvaros L 1-551.4 1565 1596 27.80% 16.39% 55.82%-0.46 -28.8 17
1909-03-20 Budapest TC L 0-630.3 1160 1385 22.78% 16.22% 61.00%-0.99 -42.4 9
1909-03-20 @ Torekves SC W 6-030.3 1385 1160 61.00% 16.22% 22.78%+0.99 +42.4 15
1909-03-21 MTK Budapest L 1-829.0 1113 1541 8.40% 15.49% 76.11%-2.14 -15.8 4
1909-03-21 @ Ujpest W 8-129.0 1541 1113 76.11% 15.49% 8.40%+2.14 +15.8 15
1909-03-28 Ujpest W 6-232.8 1625 1098 83.45% 14.35% 2.19%+3.26 +2.1 22
1909-03-28 @ Ferencvaros L 2-632.8 1098 1625 2.19% 14.35% 83.45%-3.26 -2.1 4
1909-03-28 Budapest TC D 1-162.6 1557 1427 65.97% 16.21% 17.82%+1.01 -3.7 16
1909-03-28 @ MTK Budapest D 1-162.6 1427 1557 17.82% 16.21% 65.97%-1.01 +3.7 16
1909-03-28 Fovarosi TC L 2-343.6 1117 1318 25.38% 16.28% 58.35%-0.86 -8.0 9
1909-03-28 @ Torekves SC W 3-243.6 1318 1117 58.35% 16.28% 25.38%+0.86 +8.0 18
1909-04-18 Magyar AC L 1-339.8 1271 1536 18.96% 16.12% 64.93%-1.22 -11.2 12
1909-04-18 @ Budapesti AK W 3-139.8 1536 1271 64.93% 16.12% 18.96%+1.22 +11.2 19
1909-04-18 Torekves SC L 2-343.9 924 1109 27.06% 16.30% 56.63%-0.77 -8.4 2
1909-04-18 @ Typographia SC W 3-243.9 1109 924 56.63% 16.30% 27.06%+0.77 +8.4 11
1909-04-25 Budapesti AK W 3-136.5 1553 1260 76.55% 15.66% 7.79%+1.93 +4.8 18
1909-04-25 @ MTK Budapest L 1-336.5 1260 1553 7.79% 15.66% 76.55%-1.93 -4.9 12
1909-04-25 Budapest TC L 1-245.8 1326 1431 37.42% 16.41% 46.17%-0.31 -11.8 18
1909-04-25 @ Fovarosi TC W 2-145.8 1431 1326 46.17% 16.41% 37.42%+0.31 +11.8 18
1909-05-02 Ujpest W 5-129.4 1547 1096 81.85% 14.83% 3.32%+2.83 +3.8 21
1909-05-02 @ Magyar AC L 1-529.4 1096 1547 3.32% 14.83% 81.85%-2.83 -3.8 4
1909-05-09 Budapest TC L 0-227.9 915 1443 4.93% 14.96% 80.10%-2.71 -3.5 2
1909-05-09 @ Typographia SC W 2-027.9 1443 915 80.10% 14.96% 4.93%+2.71 +3.5 20
1909-05-16 Magyar AC D 0-060.3 1446 1551 37.41% 16.41% 46.18%-0.31 +0.7 21
1909-05-16 @ Budapest TC D 0-060.3 1551 1446 46.18% 16.41% 37.41%+0.31 -0.7 22
1909-05-16 Ujpest L 1-253.8 1314 1092 72.84% 15.94% 11.22%+1.54 -21.9 18
1909-05-16 @ Fovarosi TC W 2-153.8 1092 1314 11.22% 15.94% 72.84%-1.54 +21.9 6
1909-05-16 Budapesti AK L 1-235.6 912 1255 12.89% 15.85% 71.26%-1.67 -4.5 2
1909-05-16 @ Typographia SC W 2-135.6 1255 912 71.26% 15.85% 12.89%+1.67 +4.5 14
1909-05-20 Ferencvaros L 0-526.9 1118 1627 5.43% 15.06% 79.50%-2.60 -9.1 11
1909-05-20 @ Torekves SC W 5-026.9 1627 1118 79.50% 15.06% 5.43%+2.60 +9.1 24
1909-05-23 Ujpest L 0-332.4 907 1114 24.73% 16.26% 59.01%-0.89 -23.9 2
1909-05-23 @ Typographia SC W 3-032.4 1114 907 59.01% 16.26% 24.73%+0.89 +23.9 8
1909-06-06 MTK Budapest L 2-339.2 1109 1558 7.49% 15.39% 77.12%-2.26 -2.5 11
1909-06-06 @ Torekves SC W 3-239.2 1558 1109 77.12% 15.39% 7.49%+2.26 +2.5 20
1909-06-10 Ferencvaros L 1-1136.0 1292 1636 12.86% 15.85% 71.29%-1.67 -33.4 18
1909-06-10 @ Fovarosi TC W 11-136.0 1636 1292 71.29% 15.85% 12.86%+1.67 +33.4 26
1909-10-04 Ferencvaros FL53.2 1138 1670 2.14% 14.32% 83.54%-2.73 +0.0 8
1909-10-04 @ Ujpest FW53.2 1670 1138 83.54% 14.32% 2.14%+2.73 +0.0 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1909-05-16 11.22% Ujpest 1092 2 @ Fovarosi TC 1314 1
2 1908-12-24 12.06% Fovarosi TC 1229 3 @ Budapest TC 1438 0
3 1908-12-08 14.65% @ Budapesti AK 1213 2 MTK Budapest 1531 1
4 1909-02-21 19.65% @ Fovarosi TC 1309 1 MTK Budapest 1566 0
5 1908-10-25 22.53% Fovarosi TC 1170 3 @ Ujpest 1249 1
6 1908-11-08 29.16% Ferencvaros 1520 4 @ MTK Budapest 1540 2
7 1908-12-27 32.61% Budapesti AK 1234 5 @ Ujpest 1227 0
8 1909-03-07 34.51% @ Torekves SC 1146 4 Budapesti AK 1272 3
9 1909-02-14 35.81% @ MTK Budapest 1511 4 Magyar AC 1627 0
10 1908-09-20 37.44% @ Budapest TC 1427 4 Ferencvaros 1531 2
11 1908-11-22 40.81% MTK Budapest 1515 1 @ Budapest TC 1447 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1908-12-27 71.92 Budapesti AK 5 1234 32.61% @ Ujpest 0 1227 50.97% 16.42%
2 1908-12-24 62.75 Fovarosi TC 3 1229 12.06% @ Budapest TC 0 1438 71.96% 15.99%
3 1909-02-14 55.05 @ MTK Budapest 4 1511 35.81% Magyar AC 0 1627 47.79% 16.40%
4 1909-03-20 42.42 Budapest TC 6 1385 61.00% @ Torekves SC 0 1160 22.78% 16.22%
5 1909-06-10 33.42 Ferencvaros 11 1636 71.29% @ Fovarosi TC 1 1292 12.86% 15.85%
6 1908-10-25 31.66 Fovarosi TC 3 1170 22.53% @ Ujpest 1 1249 61.15% 16.32%
7 1909-03-20 28.84 @ Ferencvaros 5 1596 55.82% Magyar AC 1 1565 27.80% 16.39%
8 1909-02-14 28.21 @ Torekves SC 4 1119 47.15% Ujpest 1 1155 36.42% 16.43%
9 1909-02-14 27.34 Ferencvaros 4 1545 62.46% @ Budapesti AK 0 1306 21.36% 16.19%
10 1908-11-08 25.33 Ferencvaros 4 1520 29.16% @ MTK Budapest 2 1540 54.45% 16.40%
11 1909-05-23 23.87 Ujpest 3 1114 59.01% @ Typographia SC 0 907 24.73% 16.26%
12 1909-05-16 21.89 Ujpest 2 1092 11.22% @ Fovarosi TC 1 1314 72.84% 15.94%
13 1908-09-20 21.79 @ Budapest TC 4 1427 37.44% Ferencvaros 2 1531 46.15% 16.41%
14 1908-12-08 20.77 @ Budapesti AK 2 1213 14.65% MTK Budapest 1 1531 69.40% 15.95%
15 1909-02-21 20.34 @ Fovarosi TC 1 1309 19.65% MTK Budapest 0 1566 64.21% 16.14%
16 1908-11-22 17.96 @ Ujpest 4 1213 61.96% Torekves SC 1 1126 21.74% 16.30%
17 1908-11-15 17.52 @ Fovarosi TC 5 1201 58.82% Torekves SC 2 1144 24.83% 16.35%
18 1909-02-14 16.34 Fovarosi TC 4 1292 71.92% @ Typographia SC 0 939 12.26% 15.81%
19 1909-03-21 15.82 MTK Budapest 8 1541 76.11% @ Ujpest 1 1113 8.40% 15.49%
20 1909-02-28 14.05 @ Ferencvaros 3 1573 70.10% Budapest TC 0 1392 13.83% 16.07%
21 1908-11-22 13.98 MTK Budapest 1 1515 40.81% @ Budapest TC 0 1447 42.76% 16.43%
22 1909-03-07 13.76 @ Torekves SC 4 1146 34.51% Budapesti AK 3 1272 49.10% 16.39%
23 1908-12-08 13.72 @ Torekves SC 4 1105 67.65% Typographia SC 1 956 16.18% 16.16%
24 1909-03-20 12.88 @ Budapesti AK 2 1258 42.00% Fovarosi TC 1 1331 41.57% 16.43%
25 1909-02-21 12.67 Budapest TC 1 1379 45.54% @ Budapesti AK 0 1279 38.05% 16.41%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1909-02-28 67.3 @ Fovarosi TC 3 1329 20.82% Magyar AC 3 1574 63.00% 16.17%
2 1908-11-08 62.8 Ferencvaros 4 1520 29.16% @ MTK Budapest 2 1540 54.45% 16.40%
3 1909-03-28 62.6 @ MTK Budapest 1 1557 65.97% Budapest TC 1 1427 17.82% 16.21%
4 1908-11-22 61.8 @ Magyar AC 2 1618 80.47% Fovarosi TC 2 1219 4.41% 15.13%
5 1908-10-25 60.3 @ Torekves SC 2 1139 6.04% Magyar AC 2 1629 78.78% 15.17%
6 1908-12-20 60.3 @ Magyar AC 5 1615 58.85% Ferencvaros 3 1557 24.79% 16.35%
7 1909-05-16 60.3 @ Budapest TC 0 1446 37.41% Magyar AC 0 1551 46.18% 16.41%
8 1908-11-15 58.2 @ Magyar AC 1 1625 80.69% Budapesti AK 1 1217 4.22% 15.09%
9 1908-10-18 58.0 @ Budapest TC 2 1443 77.24% Torekves SC 2 1135 7.18% 15.59%
10 1908-09-20 57.1 @ Budapesti AK 2 1227 61.99% Torekves SC 2 1140 21.71% 16.30%
11 1908-11-08 57.1 @ Ujpest 2 1217 74.72% Typographia SC 2 962 9.46% 15.81%
12 1908-09-27 56.8 @ MTK Budapest 1 1540 76.56% Ujpest 1 1248 7.78% 15.66%
13 1908-09-20 56.5 @ Budapest TC 4 1427 37.44% Ferencvaros 2 1531 46.15% 16.41%
14 1908-12-08 55.1 @ Budapesti AK 2 1213 14.65% MTK Budapest 1 1531 69.40% 15.95%
15 1909-03-07 54.2 @ Torekves SC 4 1146 34.51% Budapesti AK 3 1272 49.10% 16.39%
16 1909-03-11 54.2 @ Typographia SC 1 917 2.48% Magyar AC 1 1572 83.36% 14.16%
17 1909-05-16 53.8 Ujpest 2 1092 11.22% @ Fovarosi TC 1 1314 72.84% 15.94%
18 1909-02-21 53.3 @ Fovarosi TC 1 1309 19.65% MTK Budapest 0 1566 64.21% 16.14%
19 1909-02-14 52.9 @ MTK Budapest 4 1511 35.81% Magyar AC 0 1627 47.79% 16.40%
20 1909-03-07 51.4 @ Ferencvaros 1 1587 56.43% MTK Budapest 0 1550 27.19% 16.38%
21 1909-03-20 51.4 @ Ferencvaros 5 1596 55.82% Magyar AC 1 1565 27.80% 16.39%
22 1908-09-20 51.2 @ Magyar AC 1 1611 59.32% MTK Budapest 0 1549 24.34% 16.35%
23 1908-11-22 49.9 MTK Budapest 1 1515 40.81% @ Budapest TC 0 1447 42.76% 16.43%
24 1908-10-25 49.0 Fovarosi TC 3 1170 22.53% @ Ujpest 1 1249 61.15% 16.32%
25 1908-09-27 48.6 @ Magyar AC 2 1620 69.36% Budapest TC 1 1448 14.53% 16.10%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1909-02-28 23.8 MTK Budapest 5 1545 82.69% @ Typographia SC 0 922 2.94% 14.37%
2 1908-12-06 24.0 @ Magyar AC 4 1614 85.46% Typographia SC 0 958 1.08% 13.45%
3 1908-10-18 25.7 @ MTK Budapest 8 1537 84.22% Typographia SC 1 965 1.72% 14.06%
4 1908-12-27 25.8 @ Budapest TC 3 1375 81.38% Typographia SC 0 942 3.68% 14.94%
5 1908-11-22 26.4 Ferencvaros 12 1545 81.62% @ Typographia SC 2 966 3.73% 14.65%
6 1909-05-20 26.9 Ferencvaros 5 1627 79.50% @ Torekves SC 0 1118 5.43% 15.06%
7 1909-02-14 27.4 Fovarosi TC 4 1292 71.92% @ Typographia SC 0 939 12.26% 15.81%
8 1909-05-09 27.9 Budapest TC 2 1443 80.10% @ Typographia SC 0 915 4.93% 14.96%
9 1908-12-06 28.7 @ MTK Budapest 2 1529 81.05% Torekves SC 0 1108 3.94% 15.01%
10 1909-03-21 29.0 MTK Budapest 8 1541 76.11% @ Ujpest 1 1113 8.40% 15.49%
11 1908-10-11 29.2 @ Ferencvaros 6 1512 79.55% Torekves SC 1 1142 5.16% 15.29%
12 1909-05-02 29.4 @ Magyar AC 5 1547 81.85% Ujpest 1 1096 3.32% 14.83%
13 1909-03-20 30.3 Budapest TC 6 1385 61.00% @ Torekves SC 0 1160 22.78% 16.22%
14 1908-11-08 31.6 @ Budapest TC 2 1439 72.29% Budapesti AK 0 1226 11.75% 15.97%
15 1909-02-21 31.7 @ Ferencvaros 2 1573 85.39% Typographia SC 1 922 1.12% 13.49%
16 1909-05-23 32.4 Ujpest 3 1114 59.01% @ Typographia SC 0 907 24.73% 16.26%
17 1909-03-28 32.8 @ Ferencvaros 6 1625 83.45% Ujpest 2 1098 2.19% 14.35%
18 1909-02-28 33.7 @ Budapesti AK 1 1266 66.82% Ujpest 0 1127 16.99% 16.19%
19 1908-12-08 33.8 @ Torekves SC 4 1105 67.65% Typographia SC 1 956 16.18% 16.16%
20 1908-10-11 34.6 @ Budapesti AK 2 1222 74.64% Typographia SC 1 968 9.55% 15.82%
21 1909-02-21 34.7 @ Magyar AC 2 1572 81.17% Torekves SC 1 1147 3.84% 14.99%
22 1909-03-07 34.8 Budapest TC 1 1378 64.21% @ Ujpest 0 1121 19.65% 16.14%
23 1909-02-14 35.1 Ferencvaros 4 1545 62.46% @ Budapesti AK 0 1306 21.36% 16.19%
24 1908-09-27 35.6 @ Fovarosi TC 2 1167 71.00% Typographia SC 1 973 12.97% 16.03%
25 1908-11-22 35.6 @ Ujpest 4 1213 61.96% Torekves SC 1 1126 21.74% 16.30%