Home / Leagues / Hungary / I. Osztály / 1909-10
‹ ›

1909-10 I. Osztály Season

72 games

Final

Champion

Ferencvaros

27 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 1908-09

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Budapesti AK

2.95 points above expected

16 points · 13.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Magyar AC

7.64 points below expected

7 points · 14.64 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ferencvaros Champion 16 13 1 2 27 52 17 +35 24.81 +2.19
2 MTK Budapest 16 11 3 2 25 42 24 +18 23.82 +1.18
3 Nemzeti SC 16 9 0 7 18 33 30 +3 16.95 +1.05
4 Budapesti AK 16 8 0 8 16 23 28 -5 13.05 +2.95
5 Budapest TC 16 6 2 8 14 32 34 -2 17.49 -3.49
6 Terezvarosi TC 16 6 2 8 14 22 30 -8 11.30 +2.70
7 Ujpest 16 6 1 9 13 27 33 -6 11.98 +1.02
8 Torekves SC 16 4 2 10 10 19 31 -12 9.96 +0.04
9 Magyar AC 16 3 1 12 7 26 49 -23 14.64 -7.64

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Budapesti AK 16 13.05 +2.95
2 Terezvarosi TC 14 11.30 +2.70
3 Ferencvaros 27 24.81 +2.19
4 MTK Budapest 25 23.82 +1.18
5 Nemzeti SC 18 16.95 +1.05

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Magyar AC 7 14.64 -7.64
2 Budapest TC 14 17.49 -3.49
3 Torekves SC 10 9.96 +0.04
4 Ujpest 13 11.98 +1.02
5 Nemzeti SC 18 16.95 +1.05

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ujpest 2 Feb 27 – Mar 6 1 in 52
2 Budapesti AK 4 Mar 6 – May 8 1 in 42
3 Budapest TC 5 Oct 24 – Feb 13 1 in 16
4 Ferencvaros 8 Feb 13 – May 29 1 in 11
5 Nemzeti SC 5 Sep 8 – Oct 24 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Budapest TC 4 Feb 20 – Mar 20 1 in 76
2 Magyar AC 6 Mar 6 – May 29 1 in 41
3 Torekves SC 6 Oct 31 – Feb 27 1 in 39
4 Nemzeti SC 4 Feb 27 – Apr 17 1 in 31
5 Ferencvaros 1 Sep 8 – Sep 8 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 MTK Budapest 11 Sep 8 – Feb 27 1 in 19
2 Budapesti AK 4 Mar 6 – May 8 1 in 18
3 Torekves SC 2 Oct 10 – Oct 17 1 in 12
4 Budapest TC 5 Oct 24 – Feb 13 1 in 8
5 Terezvarosi TC 2 Sep 19 – Sep 26 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Magyar AC 6 Sep 8 – Nov 14 1 in 44
2 Torekves SC 6 Oct 31 – Feb 27 1 in 16
3 Nemzeti SC 4 Feb 27 – Apr 17 1 in 14
4 Budapest TC 4 Sep 12 – Oct 10 1 in 12
5 MTK Budapest 2 Oct 10 – Oct 24 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ferencvaros 1664 27 +72 10 8.0 +2.0
MTK Budapest 1510 25 -73 5 7.2 -2.2
Nemzeti SC 1316 18 -11 4 4.8 -0.8
Budapesti AK 1326 16 +116 8 3.9 +4.1
Terezvarosi TC 1311 14 +84 5 4.2 +0.8
Budapest TC 1308 14 -36 3 5.2 -2.2
Ujpest 1270 13 -7 6 5.1 +0.9
Torekves SC 1114 10 -26 3 2.5 +0.5
Magyar AC 1142 7 -144 0 4.4 -4.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BT BA FER MB MA NS TT TS UJP
Budapest TC —
0-0-2
3.38
0-0-2
1.74
0-0-2
1.61
2-0-0
3.66
2-0-0
2.88
0-2-0
3.44
1-0-1
4.59
1-0-1
4.39
Budapesti AK
2-0-0
2.44
 —
0-0-2
0.95
0-0-2
1.08
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
1.87
0-0-2
3.28
2-0-0
3.27
2-0-0
2.85
Ferencvaros
2-0-0
4.08
2-0-0
4.87
 —
1-1-0
3.43
2-0-0
4.21
1-0-1
4.89
2-0-0
4.93
1-0-1
5.14
2-0-0
5.01
MTK Budapest
2-0-0
4.22
2-0-0
4.74
0-1-1
2.39
 —
2-0-0
4.00
2-0-0
4.05
2-0-0
4.96
0-2-0
5.05
1-0-1
4.97
Magyar AC
0-0-2
2.16
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
1.62
0-0-2
1.82
 —
0-0-2
2.52
1-0-1
3.63
1-0-1
3.93
0-1-1
3.39
Nemzeti SC
0-0-2
2.95
1-0-1
3.96
1-0-1
0.93
0-0-2
1.77
2-0-0
3.30
 —
1-0-1
4.14
2-0-0
3.79
2-0-0
4.05
Terezvarosi TC
0-2-0
2.38
2-0-0
2.54
0-0-2
0.89
0-0-2
0.87
1-0-1
2.20
1-0-1
1.68
 —
1-0-1
3.35
1-0-1
2.94
Torekves SC
1-0-1
1.23
0-0-2
2.55
1-0-1
0.69
0-2-0
0.78
1-0-1
1.89
0-0-2
2.04
1-0-1
2.47
 —
0-0-2
2.58
Ujpest
1-0-1
1.43
0-0-2
2.97
0-0-2
0.82
1-0-1
0.86
1-1-0
2.43
0-0-2
1.78
1-0-1
2.88
2-0-0
3.25
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.75 +5.3
Allowed 0.76 -6.6
Differential 0.94 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.39%4.86%5.56%1.39%2.78%0.69%16.67%
14.86%1.39%12.50%4.86%1.39%1.39%26.39%
25.56%12.50%—3.47%3.47%2.78%27.78%
31.39%4.86%3.47%5.56%—0.69%15.97%
42.78%1.39%3.47%———7.64%
5+0.69%1.39%2.78%0.69%——5.56%
Total16.67%26.39%27.78%15.97%7.64%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.92 1.92 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.22
CV 0.77 0.77 —
Max 8 8 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%————12.50%
1——18.75%——6.25%25.00%
2—18.75%——12.50%—31.25%
3—6.25%—6.25%—6.25%18.75%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+——6.25%———6.25%
Total12.50%31.25%25.00%6.25%12.50%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.12 -0.12
SD 1.37 1.63 2.06
CV 0.68 0.77 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——12.50%6.25%——18.75%
118.75%—12.50%6.25%—6.25%43.75%
2—12.50%—6.25%——18.75%
3—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+———————
Total18.75%25.00%31.25%18.75%—6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.75 -0.31
SD 1.15 1.34 1.96
CV 0.80 0.77 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%————6.25%
1——6.25%———6.25%
212.50%12.50%————25.00%
36.25%6.25%—6.25%——18.75%
412.50%—6.25%———18.75%
5+6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%——25.00%
Total37.50%31.25%18.75%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.25 1.06 +2.19
SD 1.73 1.06 1.94
CV 0.53 1.00 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——12.50%———12.50%
1—6.25%————6.25%
218.75%6.25%————25.00%
3—6.25%6.25%12.50%——25.00%
4—6.25%18.75%———25.00%
5+——6.25%———6.25%
Total18.75%25.00%43.75%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.62 1.50 +1.12
SD 1.45 0.97 1.54
CV 0.55 0.64 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%——6.25%—12.50%
1——18.75%6.25%——25.00%
2—12.50%—6.25%12.50%18.75%50.00%
3—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total—25.00%18.75%18.75%18.75%18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 3.06 -1.44
SD 0.89 1.91 2.00
CV 0.54 0.62 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.25%—6.25%—12.50%
118.75%—6.25%6.25%6.25%—37.50%
2—6.25%—6.25%6.25%—18.75%
36.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
4——6.25%———6.25%
5+——6.25%———6.25%
Total25.00%12.50%31.25%12.50%18.75%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.88 +0.19
SD 1.95 1.45 2.54
CV 0.94 0.78 —
Max 8 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%12.50%——6.25%31.25%
1——18.75%—6.25%—25.00%
2—25.00%————25.00%
3——6.25%6.25%——12.50%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+———————
Total12.50%31.25%37.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.88 -0.50
SD 1.26 1.50 2.22
CV 0.92 0.80 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%6.25%—6.25%—18.75%
16.25%6.25%25.00%12.50%——50.00%
2—18.75%—6.25%——25.00%
3———6.25%——6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total6.25%31.25%31.25%25.00%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.94 -0.75
SD 0.83 1.06 1.39
CV 0.70 0.55 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%—6.25%6.25%—25.00%
1——6.25%12.50%——18.75%
218.75%——6.25%—6.25%31.25%
3—6.25%6.25%6.25%——18.75%
4———————
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total18.75%25.00%12.50%31.25%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 2.06 -0.38
SD 1.40 1.65 2.36
CV 0.83 0.80 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ferencvaros 1664 27 24.81 +2.19 80.0% 16 19 23 25 27 29 31
MTK Budapest 1510 25 23.82 +1.18 67.0% 15 18 22 24 26 29 30
Budapesti AK 1326 16 13.05 +2.95 87.0% 5 7 11 13 15 18 23
Nemzeti SC 1316 18 16.95 +1.05 64.0% 8 11 15 17 20 22 24
Terezvarosi TC 1311 14 11.30 +2.70 83.0% 6 6 9 11 13 17 19
Budapest TC 1308 14 17.49 -3.49 24.0% 10 11 15 18 20 24 26
Ujpest 1270 13 11.98 +1.02 64.0% 4 5 9 12 15 18 20
Magyar AC 1142 7 14.64 -7.64 2.0% 7 9 12 15 17 20 25
Torekves SC 1114 10 9.96 +0.04 62.0% 2 6 8 10 12 15 17

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.00%
No Edge
45.83%8.33%45.83%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 0.00 Elo pts.
203 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.06 goals
Neutral
-2+0.00+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
57%
Ferencvaros, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.12/gm
Tight Race
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.72 * Some Luck: 2.72 to 4.08 * Lucky: 4.08 to 5.44 * Wild Swing: 5.44 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.94 * Close: 0.94 to 1.41 * Off: 1.41 to 1.88 * Way Off: 1.88 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.25 points
Some Luck
03.408
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Close
01.182.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
87.00%
Budapesti AK
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
2.00%
Magyar AC
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Lopsided
00.150.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 169.63
1.70
Moderate Separation
11.61.852.152.75
Interquartile Edge
58%
Even
50%65.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
96%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Some Drama
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.87
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.58
Some Carryover
00.450.590.721
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.71
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.85
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.132
Well Within Noise
00.1710.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Ferencvaros57.00%33.00%6.00%4.00%—————
MTK Budapest40.00%48.00%8.00%3.00%—1.00%———
Nemzeti SC—7.00%30.00%24.00%17.00%15.00%4.00%3.00%—
Budapesti AK—2.00%4.00%11.00%18.00%22.00%22.00%12.00%9.00%
Budapest TC2.00%6.00%33.00%23.00%18.00%10.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%
Terezvarosi TC——3.00%5.00%11.00%8.00%26.00%29.00%18.00%
Ujpest——6.00%11.00%13.00%14.00%17.00%17.00%22.00%
Torekves SC——1.00%3.00%3.00%10.00%16.00%23.00%44.00%
Magyar AC1.00%4.00%9.00%16.00%20.00%20.00%9.00%15.00%6.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Budapest TC 100%
Budapesti AK 100%
Ferencvaros 100%
MTK Budapest 100%
Magyar AC 100%
Nemzeti SC 100%
Terezvarosi TC 100%
Torekves SC 100%
Ujpest 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1909-09-08 Magyar AC W 5-245.9 1454 1423 50.00% 8.84% 41.16%+0.15 +36.8 2
1909-09-08 @ MTK Budapest L 2-545.9 1423 1454 41.16% 8.84% 50.00%-0.15 -36.8 0
1909-09-08 Ujpest W 3-027.8 1328 1191 63.67% 8.82% 27.51%+0.67 +34.7 2
1909-09-08 @ Nemzeti SC L 0-327.8 1191 1328 27.51% 8.82% 63.67%-0.67 -34.7 0
1909-09-08 Ferencvaros W 2-155.6 1171 1497 11.28% 8.76% 79.96%-1.61 +33.1 2
1909-09-08 @ Torekves SC L 1-255.6 1497 1171 79.96% 8.76% 11.28%+1.61 -33.1 0
1909-09-12 Budapest TC W 2-149.5 1263 1373 30.60% 8.83% 60.57%-0.55 +24.9 2
1909-09-12 @ Budapesti AK L 1-249.5 1373 1263 60.57% 8.83% 30.60%+0.55 -24.9 0
1909-09-12 Ferencvaros L 0-433.0 1386 1464 34.78% 8.83% 56.39%-0.38 -56.4 0
1909-09-12 @ Magyar AC W 4-033.0 1464 1386 56.39% 8.83% 34.78%+0.38 +56.4 2
1909-09-12 Ujpest L 0-240.3 1260 1157 59.64% 8.83% 31.53%+0.51 -49.1 0
1909-09-12 @ Terezvarosi TC W 2-040.3 1157 1260 31.53% 8.83% 59.64%-0.51 +49.1 2
1909-09-19 Terezvarosi TC D 0-054.7 1349 1211 63.82% 8.82% 27.35%+0.68 -4.4 1
1909-09-19 @ Budapest TC D 0-054.7 1211 1349 27.35% 8.82% 63.82%-0.68 +4.4 1
1909-09-19 Budapesti AK W 2-031.5 1491 1288 70.69% 8.81% 20.51%+1.00 +18.1 4
1909-09-19 @ MTK Budapest L 0-231.5 1288 1491 20.51% 8.81% 70.69%-1.00 -18.1 2
1909-09-19 Torekves SC W 3-243.4 1363 1204 66.08% 8.82% 25.10%+0.78 +10.4 4
1909-09-19 @ Nemzeti SC L 2-343.4 1204 1363 25.10% 8.82% 66.08%-0.78 -10.4 2
1909-09-26 Terezvarosi TC L 1-246.5 1270 1215 53.28% 8.84% 37.89%+0.27 -22.0 2
1909-09-26 @ Budapesti AK W 2-146.5 1215 1270 37.89% 8.84% 53.28%-0.27 +22.0 3
1909-09-26 Ujpest W 6-230.9 1520 1206 79.31% 8.77% 11.93%+1.55 +14.4 4
1909-09-26 @ Ferencvaros L 2-630.9 1206 1520 11.93% 8.77% 79.31%-1.55 -14.4 2
1909-09-26 Nemzeti SC L 2-445.3 1330 1373 39.49% 8.84% 51.68%-0.21 -25.9 0
1909-09-26 @ Magyar AC W 4-245.3 1373 1330 51.68% 8.84% 39.49%+0.21 +25.9 6
1909-10-03 Budapest TC W 2-142.4 1509 1344 66.83% 8.82% 24.35%+0.81 +10.6 6
1909-10-03 @ MTK Budapest L 1-242.4 1344 1509 24.35% 8.82% 66.83%-0.81 -10.6 1
1909-10-10 Ujpest W 1-037.6 1248 1191 53.49% 8.84% 37.67%+0.28 +17.0 4
1909-10-10 @ Budapesti AK L 0-137.6 1191 1248 37.67% 8.84% 53.49%-0.28 -17.0 2
1909-10-10 Budapest TC W 4-243.2 1535 1333 70.51% 8.81% 20.68%+0.99 +14.1 6
1909-10-10 @ Ferencvaros L 2-443.2 1333 1535 20.68% 8.81% 70.51%-0.99 -14.1 1
1909-10-10 MTK Budapest D 1-159.2 1194 1520 11.28% 8.76% 79.95%-1.60 +7.7 3
1909-10-10 @ Torekves SC D 1-159.2 1520 1194 79.95% 8.76% 11.28%+1.60 -7.7 7
1909-10-17 Torekves SC L 0-144.4 1304 1202 59.52% 8.83% 31.65%+0.50 -26.0 0
1909-10-17 @ Magyar AC W 1-044.4 1202 1304 31.65% 8.83% 59.52%-0.50 +26.0 5
1909-10-17 Terezvarosi TC W 1-034.7 1399 1237 66.48% 8.82% 24.70%+0.80 +11.4 8
1909-10-17 @ Nemzeti SC L 0-134.7 1237 1399 24.70% 8.82% 66.48%-0.80 -11.4 3
1909-10-24 MTK Budapest D 3-378.8 1549 1512 50.83% 8.84% 40.33%+0.18 -0.7 7
1909-10-24 @ Ferencvaros D 3-378.8 1512 1549 40.33% 8.84% 50.83%-0.18 +0.7 8
1909-10-24 Budapesti AK W 2-139.7 1410 1265 64.70% 8.82% 26.47%+0.72 +11.5 10
1909-10-24 @ Nemzeti SC L 1-239.7 1265 1410 26.47% 8.82% 64.70%-0.72 -11.5 4
1909-10-24 Budapest TC L 1-238.5 1174 1319 26.55% 8.82% 64.63%-0.71 -11.5 2
1909-10-24 @ Ujpest W 2-138.5 1319 1174 64.63% 8.82% 26.55%+0.71 +11.5 3
1909-10-31 Ferencvaros L 0-326.6 1253 1548 13.16% 8.78% 78.06%-1.45 -17.1 4
1909-10-31 @ Budapesti AK W 3-026.6 1548 1253 78.06% 8.78% 13.16%+1.45 +17.1 9
1909-10-31 Ujpest D 3-366.8 1278 1163 61.12% 8.83% 30.06%+0.57 -2.1 1
1909-10-31 @ Magyar AC D 3-366.8 1163 1278 30.06% 8.83% 61.12%-0.57 +2.1 3
1909-10-31 Terezvarosi TC L 1-244.2 1228 1226 45.89% 8.84% 45.28%+0.01 -19.2 5
1909-10-31 @ Torekves SC W 2-144.2 1226 1228 45.28% 8.84% 45.89%-0.01 +19.2 5
1909-11-01 Nemzeti SC W 4-249.1 1513 1422 58.09% 8.83% 33.07%+0.45 +22.0 10
1909-11-01 @ MTK Budapest L 2-449.1 1422 1513 33.07% 8.83% 58.09%-0.45 -22.0 10
1909-11-14 Magyar AC W 2-142.5 1331 1276 53.33% 8.84% 37.84%+0.27 +16.1 5
1909-11-14 @ Budapest TC L 1-242.5 1276 1331 37.84% 8.84% 53.33%-0.27 -16.1 1
1909-11-14 MTK Budapest L 1-431.3 1245 1535 13.52% 8.78% 77.70%-1.43 -14.8 5
1909-11-14 @ Terezvarosi TC W 4-131.3 1535 1245 77.70% 8.78% 13.52%+1.43 +14.8 12
1909-11-14 Budapesti AK L 1-242.9 1209 1236 41.67% 8.84% 49.49%-0.14 -17.6 5
1909-11-14 @ Torekves SC W 2-142.9 1236 1209 49.49% 8.84% 41.67%+0.14 +17.6 6
1909-11-21 Terezvarosi TC W 6-025.5 1565 1230 80.51% 8.76% 10.73%+1.65 +26.8 11
1909-11-21 @ Ferencvaros L 0-625.5 1230 1565 10.73% 8.76% 80.51%-1.65 -26.8 5
1909-11-21 Torekves SC W 2-037.1 1165 1191 41.86% 8.84% 49.30%-0.13 +41.0 5
1909-11-21 @ Ujpest L 0-237.1 1191 1165 49.30% 8.84% 41.86%+0.13 -41.0 5
1909-11-28 Magyar AC L 1-340.8 1254 1260 44.68% 8.84% 46.48%-0.03 -32.4 6
1909-11-28 @ Budapesti AK W 3-140.8 1260 1254 46.48% 8.84% 44.68%+0.03 +32.4 3
1909-11-28 Budapest TC L 0-436.1 1400 1347 53.02% 8.84% 38.15%+0.26 -83.2 10
1909-11-28 @ Nemzeti SC W 4-036.1 1347 1400 38.15% 8.84% 53.02%-0.26 +83.2 7
1909-12-05 Ujpest W 3-132.8 1549 1206 80.96% 8.75% 10.29%+1.69 +8.0 14
1909-12-05 @ MTK Budapest L 1-332.8 1206 1549 10.29% 8.75% 80.96%-1.69 -8.0 5
1909-12-05 Ferencvaros W 1-055.7 1317 1592 14.50% 8.78% 76.71%-1.36 +33.6 12
1909-12-05 @ Nemzeti SC L 0-155.7 1592 1317 76.71% 8.78% 14.50%+1.36 -33.6 11
1909-12-08 Magyar AC L 1-240.6 1203 1292 33.32% 8.83% 57.85%-0.44 -14.3 5
1909-12-08 @ Terezvarosi TC W 2-140.6 1292 1203 57.85% 8.83% 33.32%+0.44 +14.3 5
1909-12-12 Torekves SC W 2-135.2 1430 1150 77.03% 8.78% 14.18%+1.38 +6.3 9
1909-12-12 @ Budapest TC L 1-235.2 1150 1430 14.18% 8.78% 77.03%-1.38 -6.3 5
1910-02-13 Budapest TC L 2-538.8 1307 1437 28.26% 8.83% 62.91%-0.64 -26.0 5
1910-02-13 @ Magyar AC W 5-238.8 1437 1307 62.91% 8.83% 28.26%+0.64 +26.0 11
1910-02-13 MTK Budapest L 2-347.8 1350 1558 20.11% 8.81% 71.08%-1.02 -8.4 12
1910-02-13 @ Nemzeti SC W 3-247.8 1558 1350 71.08% 8.81% 20.11%+1.02 +8.4 16
1910-02-13 Budapesti AK W 3-250.4 1189 1221 40.99% 8.84% 50.17%-0.16 +19.8 7
1910-02-13 @ Terezvarosi TC L 2-350.4 1221 1189 50.17% 8.84% 40.99%+0.16 -19.8 6
1910-02-13 Ferencvaros L 1-332.5 1198 1559 9.41% 8.74% 81.85%-1.78 -7.4 5
1910-02-13 @ Ujpest W 3-132.5 1559 1198 81.85% 8.74% 9.41%+1.78 +7.3 13
1910-02-20 Ferencvaros L 3-554.9 1463 1566 31.49% 8.83% 59.68%-0.51 -19.8 11
1910-02-20 @ Budapest TC W 5-354.9 1566 1463 59.68% 8.83% 31.49%+0.51 +19.8 15
1910-02-20 Torekves SC W 1-037.4 1201 1144 53.69% 8.84% 37.48%+0.28 +16.9 8
1910-02-20 @ Budapesti AK L 0-137.4 1144 1201 37.48% 8.84% 53.69%-0.28 -16.9 5
1910-02-20 Terezvarosi TC W 2-028.1 1566 1209 81.67% 8.75% 9.58%+1.76 +8.6 18
1910-02-20 @ MTK Budapest L 0-228.1 1209 1566 9.58% 8.75% 81.67%-1.76 -8.7 7
1910-02-20 Nemzeti SC L 0-134.4 1191 1342 25.86% 8.82% 65.32%-0.74 -11.9 5
1910-02-20 @ Ujpest W 1-034.4 1342 1191 65.32% 8.82% 25.86%+0.74 +11.9 14
1910-02-27 Ujpest L 1-546.1 1443 1179 75.86% 8.79% 15.35%+1.30 -98.9 11
1910-02-27 @ Budapest TC W 5-146.1 1179 1443 15.35% 8.79% 75.86%-1.30 +98.9 7
1910-02-27 MTK Budapest L 0-228.5 1218 1575 9.63% 8.75% 81.62%-1.76 -8.7 8
1910-02-27 @ Budapesti AK W 2-028.5 1575 1218 81.62% 8.75% 9.63%+1.76 +8.7 20
1910-02-27 Nemzeti SC W 2-150.5 1200 1354 25.58% 8.82% 65.60%-0.76 +27.0 9
1910-02-27 @ Terezvarosi TC L 1-250.5 1354 1200 65.60% 8.82% 25.58%+0.76 -27.0 14
1910-02-27 Magyar AC L 1-238.0 1127 1281 25.57% 8.82% 65.61%-0.76 -11.1 5
1910-02-27 @ Torekves SC W 2-138.0 1281 1127 65.61% 8.82% 25.57%+0.76 +11.1 7
1910-03-06 Nemzeti SC W 4-143.0 1210 1327 29.82% 8.83% 61.36%-0.58 +61.9 10
1910-03-06 @ Budapesti AK L 1-443.0 1327 1210 61.36% 8.83% 29.82%+0.58 -61.9 14
1910-03-06 Magyar AC W 2-139.8 1586 1292 77.99% 8.78% 13.23%+1.45 +5.9 17
1910-03-06 @ Ferencvaros L 1-239.8 1292 1586 13.23% 8.78% 77.99%-1.45 -5.9 7
1910-03-06 Torekves SC L 1-248.5 1227 1116 60.66% 8.83% 30.51%+0.55 -25.0 9
1910-03-06 @ Terezvarosi TC W 2-148.5 1116 1227 30.51% 8.83% 60.66%-0.55 +25.0 7
1910-03-06 MTK Budapest W 2-050.9 1278 1583 12.48% 8.77% 78.74%-1.51 +65.1 9
1910-03-06 @ Ujpest L 0-250.9 1583 1278 78.74% 8.77% 12.48%+1.51 -65.1 20
1910-03-13 MTK Budapest L 2-443.8 1344 1518 23.35% 8.82% 67.83%-0.86 -15.8 11
1910-03-13 @ Budapest TC W 4-243.8 1518 1344 67.83% 8.82% 23.35%+0.86 +15.8 22
1910-03-13 Torekves SC W 4-021.7 1592 1141 85.50% 8.69% 5.81%+2.22 +10.0 19
1910-03-13 @ Ferencvaros L 0-421.7 1141 1592 5.81% 8.69% 85.50%-2.22 -10.0 7
1910-03-13 Terezvarosi TC L 1-247.7 1286 1202 57.16% 8.83% 34.01%+0.41 -23.6 7
1910-03-13 @ Magyar AC W 2-147.7 1202 1286 34.01% 8.83% 57.16%-0.41 +23.6 11
1910-03-13 Budapesti AK L 2-352.8 1343 1271 55.50% 8.83% 35.66%+0.35 -21.7 9
1910-03-13 @ Ujpest W 3-252.8 1271 1343 35.66% 8.83% 55.50%-0.35 +21.7 12
1910-03-20 Budapest TC W 2-151.5 1131 1328 21.07% 8.81% 70.12%-0.97 +28.9 9
1910-03-20 @ Torekves SC L 1-251.5 1328 1131 70.12% 8.81% 21.07%+0.97 -28.9 11
1910-04-03 Nemzeti SC W 2-030.7 1602 1265 80.60% 8.76% 10.64%+1.66 +9.6 21
1910-04-03 @ Ferencvaros L 0-230.7 1265 1602 10.64% 8.76% 80.60%-1.66 -9.6 14
1910-04-03 Terezvarosi TC L 0-435.9 1321 1226 58.65% 8.83% 32.52%+0.47 -91.7 9
1910-04-03 @ Ujpest W 4-035.9 1226 1321 32.52% 8.83% 58.65%-0.47 +91.7 13
1910-04-06 Budapesti AK L 1-340.0 1262 1293 41.17% 8.84% 49.99%-0.15 -30.1 7
1910-04-06 @ Magyar AC W 3-140.0 1293 1262 49.99% 8.84% 41.17%+0.15 +30.1 14
1910-04-17 Nemzeti SC W 3-139.4 1299 1255 51.79% 8.84% 39.37%+0.22 +28.9 13
1910-04-17 @ Budapest TC L 1-339.4 1255 1299 39.37% 8.84% 51.79%-0.22 -28.9 14
1910-04-17 Torekves SC D 3-368.4 1534 1159 82.51% 8.74% 8.75%+1.85 -5.1 23
1910-04-17 @ MTK Budapest D 3-368.4 1159 1534 8.75% 8.74% 82.51%-1.85 +5.1 10
1910-04-28 Ferencvaros L 1-241.5 1317 1611 13.24% 8.78% 77.99%-1.45 -5.9 13
1910-04-28 @ Terezvarosi TC W 2-141.5 1611 1317 77.99% 8.78% 13.24%+1.45 +5.9 23
1910-05-01 Magyar AC W 3-249.3 1229 1232 45.16% 8.84% 46.00%-0.01 +18.2 11
1910-05-01 @ Ujpest L 2-349.3 1232 1229 46.00% 8.84% 45.16%+0.01 -18.2 7
1910-05-05 Nemzeti SC L 1-338.2 1165 1226 36.93% 8.84% 54.24%-0.30 -27.2 10
1910-05-05 @ Torekves SC W 3-138.2 1226 1165 54.24% 8.84% 36.93%+0.30 +27.2 16
1910-05-08 Budapesti AK L 0-141.3 1328 1323 46.25% 8.84% 44.91%+0.02 -20.5 13
1910-05-08 @ Budapest TC W 1-041.3 1323 1328 44.91% 8.84% 46.25%-0.02 +20.5 16
1910-05-08 Ferencvaros L 0-247.1 1529 1617 33.40% 8.83% 57.76%-0.44 -28.6 23
1910-05-08 @ MTK Budapest W 2-047.1 1617 1529 57.76% 8.83% 33.40%+0.44 +28.6 25
1910-05-22 MTK Budapest L 2-437.8 1214 1500 13.75% 8.78% 77.47%-1.41 -9.5 7
1910-05-22 @ Magyar AC W 4-237.8 1500 1214 77.47% 8.78% 13.75%+1.41 +9.5 25
1910-05-22 Budapest TC D 3-367.6 1311 1307 46.14% 8.84% 45.02%+0.02 -0.1 14
1910-05-22 @ Terezvarosi TC D 3-367.6 1307 1311 45.02% 8.84% 46.14%-0.02 +0.1 14
1910-05-29 Budapesti AK W 5-135.7 1646 1344 78.52% 8.77% 12.71%+1.49 +18.0 27
1910-05-29 @ Ferencvaros L 1-535.7 1344 1646 12.71% 8.77% 78.52%-1.49 -18.0 16
1910-05-29 Magyar AC W 8-234.8 1254 1204 52.53% 8.84% 38.64%+0.24 +62.2 18
1910-05-29 @ Nemzeti SC L 2-834.8 1204 1254 38.64% 8.84% 52.53%-0.24 -62.2 7
1910-05-29 Ujpest L 1-336.3 1137 1247 30.67% 8.83% 60.50%-0.54 -22.9 10
1910-05-29 @ Torekves SC W 3-136.3 1247 1137 60.50% 8.83% 30.67%+0.54 +22.9 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1909-09-08 11.28% @ Torekves SC 1171 2 Ferencvaros 1497 1
2 1910-03-06 12.48% @ Ujpest 1278 2 MTK Budapest 1583 0
3 1909-12-05 14.50% @ Nemzeti SC 1317 1 Ferencvaros 1592 0
4 1910-02-27 15.35% Ujpest 1179 5 @ Budapest TC 1443 1
5 1910-03-20 21.07% @ Torekves SC 1131 2 Budapest TC 1328 1
6 1910-02-27 25.58% @ Terezvarosi TC 1200 2 Nemzeti SC 1354 1
7 1910-03-06 29.82% @ Budapesti AK 1210 4 Nemzeti SC 1327 1
8 1910-03-06 30.51% Torekves SC 1116 2 @ Terezvarosi TC 1227 1
9 1909-09-12 30.60% @ Budapesti AK 1263 2 Budapest TC 1373 1
10 1909-09-12 31.53% Ujpest 1157 2 @ Terezvarosi TC 1260 0
11 1909-10-17 31.65% Torekves SC 1202 1 @ Magyar AC 1304 0
12 1910-04-03 32.52% Terezvarosi TC 1226 4 @ Ujpest 1321 0
13 1910-03-13 34.01% Terezvarosi TC 1202 2 @ Magyar AC 1286 1
14 1910-03-13 35.66% Budapesti AK 1271 3 @ Ujpest 1343 2
15 1909-09-26 37.89% Terezvarosi TC 1215 2 @ Budapesti AK 1270 1
16 1909-11-28 38.15% Budapest TC 1347 4 @ Nemzeti SC 1400 0
17 1910-02-13 40.99% @ Terezvarosi TC 1189 3 Budapesti AK 1221 2
18 1909-11-21 41.86% @ Ujpest 1165 2 Torekves SC 1191 0
19 1910-05-08 44.91% Budapesti AK 1323 1 @ Budapest TC 1328 0
20 1910-05-01 45.16% @ Ujpest 1229 3 Magyar AC 1232 2
21 1909-10-31 45.28% Terezvarosi TC 1226 2 @ Torekves SC 1228 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1910-02-27 98.94 Ujpest 5 1179 15.35% @ Budapest TC 1 1443 75.86% 8.79%
2 1910-04-03 91.70 Terezvarosi TC 4 1226 32.52% @ Ujpest 0 1321 58.65% 8.83%
3 1909-11-28 83.25 Budapest TC 4 1347 38.15% @ Nemzeti SC 0 1400 53.02% 8.84%
4 1910-03-06 65.06 @ Ujpest 2 1278 12.48% MTK Budapest 0 1583 78.74% 8.77%
5 1910-05-29 62.17 @ Nemzeti SC 8 1254 52.53% Magyar AC 2 1204 38.64% 8.84%
6 1910-03-06 61.86 @ Budapesti AK 4 1210 29.82% Nemzeti SC 1 1327 61.36% 8.83%
7 1909-09-12 56.40 Ferencvaros 4 1464 56.39% @ Magyar AC 0 1386 34.78% 8.83%
8 1909-09-12 49.12 Ujpest 2 1157 31.53% @ Terezvarosi TC 0 1260 59.64% 8.83%
9 1909-11-21 40.99 @ Ujpest 2 1165 41.86% Torekves SC 0 1191 49.30% 8.84%
10 1909-09-08 36.84 @ MTK Budapest 5 1454 50.00% Magyar AC 2 1423 41.16% 8.84%
11 1909-09-08 34.67 @ Nemzeti SC 3 1328 63.67% Ujpest 0 1191 27.51% 8.82%
12 1909-12-05 33.58 @ Nemzeti SC 1 1317 14.50% Ferencvaros 0 1592 76.71% 8.78%
13 1909-09-08 33.06 @ Torekves SC 2 1171 11.28% Ferencvaros 1 1497 79.96% 8.76%
14 1909-11-28 32.42 Magyar AC 3 1260 46.48% @ Budapesti AK 1 1254 44.68% 8.84%
15 1910-04-06 30.09 Budapesti AK 3 1293 49.99% @ Magyar AC 1 1262 41.17% 8.84%
16 1910-04-17 28.88 @ Budapest TC 3 1299 51.79% Nemzeti SC 1 1255 39.37% 8.84%
17 1910-03-20 28.86 @ Torekves SC 2 1131 21.07% Budapest TC 1 1328 70.12% 8.81%
18 1910-05-08 28.64 Ferencvaros 2 1617 57.76% @ MTK Budapest 0 1529 33.40% 8.83%
19 1910-05-05 27.22 Nemzeti SC 3 1226 54.24% @ Torekves SC 1 1165 36.93% 8.84%
20 1910-02-27 26.98 @ Terezvarosi TC 2 1200 25.58% Nemzeti SC 1 1354 65.60% 8.82%
21 1909-11-21 26.83 @ Ferencvaros 6 1565 80.51% Terezvarosi TC 0 1230 10.73% 8.76%
22 1909-10-17 26.00 Torekves SC 1 1202 31.65% @ Magyar AC 0 1304 59.52% 8.83%
23 1910-02-13 25.98 Budapest TC 5 1437 62.91% @ Magyar AC 2 1307 28.26% 8.83%
24 1909-09-26 25.90 Nemzeti SC 4 1373 51.68% @ Magyar AC 2 1330 39.49% 8.84%
25 1910-03-06 24.97 Torekves SC 2 1116 30.51% @ Terezvarosi TC 1 1227 60.66% 8.83%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1909-10-24 78.8 @ Ferencvaros 3 1549 50.83% MTK Budapest 3 1512 40.33% 8.84%
2 1910-04-17 68.4 @ MTK Budapest 3 1534 82.51% Torekves SC 3 1159 8.75% 8.74%
3 1910-05-22 67.6 @ Terezvarosi TC 3 1311 46.14% Budapest TC 3 1307 45.02% 8.84%
4 1909-10-31 66.8 @ Magyar AC 3 1278 61.12% Ujpest 3 1163 30.06% 8.83%
5 1909-10-10 59.2 @ Torekves SC 1 1194 11.28% MTK Budapest 1 1520 79.95% 8.76%
6 1909-12-05 55.7 @ Nemzeti SC 1 1317 14.50% Ferencvaros 0 1592 76.71% 8.78%
7 1909-09-08 55.6 @ Torekves SC 2 1171 11.28% Ferencvaros 1 1497 79.96% 8.76%
8 1910-02-20 54.9 Ferencvaros 5 1566 59.68% @ Budapest TC 3 1463 31.49% 8.83%
9 1909-09-19 54.7 @ Budapest TC 0 1349 63.82% Terezvarosi TC 0 1211 27.35% 8.82%
10 1910-03-13 52.8 Budapesti AK 3 1271 35.66% @ Ujpest 2 1343 55.50% 8.83%
11 1910-03-20 51.5 @ Torekves SC 2 1131 21.07% Budapest TC 1 1328 70.12% 8.81%
12 1910-03-06 50.9 @ Ujpest 2 1278 12.48% MTK Budapest 0 1583 78.74% 8.77%
13 1910-02-27 50.5 @ Terezvarosi TC 2 1200 25.58% Nemzeti SC 1 1354 65.60% 8.82%
14 1910-02-13 50.4 @ Terezvarosi TC 3 1189 40.99% Budapesti AK 2 1221 50.17% 8.84%
15 1909-09-12 49.5 @ Budapesti AK 2 1263 30.60% Budapest TC 1 1373 60.57% 8.83%
16 1910-05-01 49.3 @ Ujpest 3 1229 45.16% Magyar AC 2 1232 46.00% 8.84%
17 1909-11-01 49.1 @ MTK Budapest 4 1513 58.09% Nemzeti SC 2 1422 33.07% 8.83%
18 1910-03-06 48.5 Torekves SC 2 1116 30.51% @ Terezvarosi TC 1 1227 60.66% 8.83%
19 1910-02-13 47.8 MTK Budapest 3 1558 71.08% @ Nemzeti SC 2 1350 20.11% 8.81%
20 1910-03-13 47.7 Terezvarosi TC 2 1202 34.01% @ Magyar AC 1 1286 57.16% 8.83%
21 1910-05-08 47.1 Ferencvaros 2 1617 57.76% @ MTK Budapest 0 1529 33.40% 8.83%
22 1909-09-26 46.5 Terezvarosi TC 2 1215 37.89% @ Budapesti AK 1 1270 53.28% 8.84%
23 1910-02-27 46.1 Ujpest 5 1179 15.35% @ Budapest TC 1 1443 75.86% 8.79%
24 1909-09-08 45.9 @ MTK Budapest 5 1454 50.00% Magyar AC 2 1423 41.16% 8.84%
25 1909-09-26 45.3 Nemzeti SC 4 1373 51.68% @ Magyar AC 2 1330 39.49% 8.84%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1910-03-13 21.7 @ Ferencvaros 4 1592 85.50% Torekves SC 0 1141 5.81% 8.69%
2 1909-11-21 25.5 @ Ferencvaros 6 1565 80.51% Terezvarosi TC 0 1230 10.73% 8.76%
3 1909-10-31 26.6 Ferencvaros 3 1548 78.06% @ Budapesti AK 0 1253 13.16% 8.78%
4 1909-09-08 27.8 @ Nemzeti SC 3 1328 63.67% Ujpest 0 1191 27.51% 8.82%
5 1910-02-20 28.1 @ MTK Budapest 2 1566 81.67% Terezvarosi TC 0 1209 9.58% 8.75%
6 1910-02-27 28.5 MTK Budapest 2 1575 81.62% @ Budapesti AK 0 1218 9.63% 8.75%
7 1910-04-03 30.7 @ Ferencvaros 2 1602 80.60% Nemzeti SC 0 1265 10.64% 8.76%
8 1909-09-26 30.9 @ Ferencvaros 6 1520 79.31% Ujpest 2 1206 11.93% 8.77%
9 1909-11-14 31.3 MTK Budapest 4 1535 77.70% @ Terezvarosi TC 1 1245 13.52% 8.78%
10 1909-09-19 31.5 @ MTK Budapest 2 1491 70.69% Budapesti AK 0 1288 20.51% 8.81%
11 1910-02-13 32.5 Ferencvaros 3 1559 81.85% @ Ujpest 1 1198 9.41% 8.74%
12 1909-12-05 32.8 @ MTK Budapest 3 1549 80.96% Ujpest 1 1206 10.29% 8.75%
13 1909-09-12 33.0 Ferencvaros 4 1464 56.39% @ Magyar AC 0 1386 34.78% 8.83%
14 1910-02-20 34.4 Nemzeti SC 1 1342 65.32% @ Ujpest 0 1191 25.86% 8.82%
15 1909-10-17 34.7 @ Nemzeti SC 1 1399 66.48% Terezvarosi TC 0 1237 24.70% 8.82%
16 1910-05-29 34.8 @ Nemzeti SC 8 1254 52.53% Magyar AC 2 1204 38.64% 8.84%
17 1909-12-12 35.2 @ Budapest TC 2 1430 77.03% Torekves SC 1 1150 14.18% 8.78%
18 1910-05-29 35.7 @ Ferencvaros 5 1646 78.52% Budapesti AK 1 1344 12.71% 8.77%
19 1910-04-03 35.9 Terezvarosi TC 4 1226 32.52% @ Ujpest 0 1321 58.65% 8.83%
20 1909-11-28 36.1 Budapest TC 4 1347 38.15% @ Nemzeti SC 0 1400 53.02% 8.84%
21 1910-05-29 36.3 Ujpest 3 1247 60.50% @ Torekves SC 1 1137 30.67% 8.83%
22 1909-11-21 37.1 @ Ujpest 2 1165 41.86% Torekves SC 0 1191 49.30% 8.84%
23 1910-02-20 37.4 @ Budapesti AK 1 1201 53.69% Torekves SC 0 1144 37.48% 8.84%
24 1909-10-10 37.6 @ Budapesti AK 1 1248 53.49% Ujpest 0 1191 37.67% 8.84%
25 1910-05-22 37.8 MTK Budapest 4 1500 77.47% @ Magyar AC 2 1214 13.75% 8.78%