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1910-11 I. Osztály Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Ferencvaros

32 points · 6th Title

Last Title: 1909-10

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Torekves SC

5.51 points above expected

22 points · 16.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ujpest

5.91 points below expected

8 points · 13.91 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ferencvaros Champion 18 16 0 2 32 77 19 +58 28.17 +3.83
2 MTK Budapest 18 10 4 4 24 37 18 +19 23.78 +0.22
3 Torekves SC 18 9 4 5 22 44 33 +11 16.49 +5.51
4 Budapesti AK 18 9 3 6 21 38 28 +10 20.04 +0.96
5 Budapest TC 18 7 4 7 18 29 33 -4 17.54 +0.46
6 Magyar AC 18 8 1 9 17 32 35 -3 16.28 +0.72
7 33FC 18 4 5 9 13 18 37 -19 12.88 +0.12
8 Terezvarosi TC 18 5 3 10 13 18 48 -30 13.08 -0.08
9 Nemzeti SC 18 4 4 10 12 26 40 -14 15.83 -3.83
10 Ujpest 18 2 4 12 8 23 51 -28 13.91 -5.91

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Torekves SC 22 16.49 +5.51
2 Ferencvaros 32 28.17 +3.83
3 Budapesti AK 21 20.04 +0.96
4 Magyar AC 17 16.28 +0.72
5 Budapest TC 18 17.54 +0.46

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ujpest 8 13.91 -5.91
2 Nemzeti SC 12 15.83 -3.83
3 Terezvarosi TC 13 13.08 -0.08
4 33FC 13 12.88 +0.12
5 MTK Budapest 24 23.78 +0.22

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ferencvaros 10 Dec 26 – May 28 1 in 30
2 Torekves SC 3 Nov 27 – Feb 26 1 in 23
3 MTK Budapest 4 Nov 13 – Dec 4 1 in 12
4 Budapest TC 3 Oct 16 – Nov 13 1 in 12
5 Nemzeti SC 2 Nov 27 – Dec 4 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Budapest TC 5 Nov 20 – Mar 12 1 in 78
2 Ujpest 5 Oct 30 – Feb 12 1 in 19
3 33FC 4 Dec 26 – Mar 5 1 in 18
4 Ferencvaros 2 Nov 13 – Nov 27 1 in 16
5 Magyar AC 3 Oct 9 – Oct 30 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Torekves SC 6 Nov 27 – Apr 2 1 in 39
2 Nemzeti SC 3 Apr 15 – May 14 1 in 10
3 Budapest TC 6 Sep 11 – Nov 13 1 in 8
4 33FC 5 Oct 23 – Dec 4 1 in 5
5 Budapesti AK 4 Sep 11 – Oct 16 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 MTK Budapest 5 Feb 12 – Apr 15 1 in 86
2 Nemzeti SC 9 Feb 26 – May 21 1 in 69
3 Ujpest 10 Sep 4 – Feb 12 1 in 51
4 Budapest TC 8 Nov 20 – Apr 30 1 in 36
5 33FC 10 Dec 4 – May 14 1 in 18

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ferencvaros 1518 32 +39 10 8.6 +1.4
MTK Budapest 1331 24 +37 8 7.4 +0.6
Torekves SC 1199 22 -3 5 5.5 -0.5
Budapesti AK 1228 21 -14 4 5.7 -1.7
Budapest TC 1134 18 +34 7 3.4 +3.6
Magyar AC 1110 17 -37 3 4.0 -1.0
Terezvarosi TC 1043 13 +27 5 3.7 +1.3
33FC 1028 13 -23 3 3.4 -0.4
Nemzeti SC 1080 12 -12 3 3.9 -0.9
Ujpest 1013 8 -40 2 3.3 -1.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 33F BT BA FER MB MA NS TT TS UJP
33FC —
0-1-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.13
0-0-2
1.24
0-0-2
1.46
1-0-1
2.68
1-1-0
2.63
0-1-1
3.44
0-1-1
2.58
1-1-0
2.85
Budapest TC
1-1-0
3.09
 —
0-1-1
2.38
0-0-2
1.25
1-1-0
2.00
0-0-2
3.15
1-0-1
2.95
1-0-1
3.50
1-1-0
2.79
2-0-0
3.15
Budapesti AK
1-0-1
3.50
1-1-0
3.25
 —
0-0-2
1.41
1-0-1
2.24
1-0-1
3.49
1-1-0
3.63
1-1-0
3.72
1-0-1
3.37
2-0-0
3.76
Ferencvaros
2-0-0
4.41
2-0-0
4.39
2-0-0
4.23
 —
1-0-1
3.49
1-0-1
4.76
2-0-0
4.63
2-0-0
4.59
2-0-0
4.53
2-0-0
4.88
MTK Budapest
2-0-0
4.17
0-1-1
3.63
1-0-1
3.39
1-0-1
2.14
 —
2-0-0
3.79
0-1-1
3.94
2-0-0
4.31
1-1-0
3.97
1-1-0
4.41
Magyar AC
1-0-1
2.95
2-0-0
2.47
1-0-1
2.14
1-0-1
0.89
0-0-2
1.84
 —
0-1-1
3.23
1-0-1
3.28
0-0-2
2.89
2-0-0
2.86
Nemzeti SC
0-1-1
3.00
1-0-1
2.67
0-1-1
2.00
0-0-2
1.01
1-1-0
1.70
1-1-0
2.39
 —
0-0-2
3.30
0-0-2
3.23
1-0-1
3.24
Terezvarosi TC
1-1-0
2.19
1-0-1
2.13
0-1-1
1.90
0-0-2
1.07
0-0-2
1.33
1-0-1
2.35
2-0-0
2.32
 —
0-0-2
2.21
0-1-1
3.02
Torekves SC
1-1-0
3.05
0-1-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.26
0-0-2
1.11
0-1-1
1.66
2-0-0
2.73
2-0-0
2.40
2-0-0
3.41
 —
1-1-0
3.42
Ujpest
0-1-1
2.77
0-0-2
2.47
0-0-2
1.86
0-0-2
0.77
0-1-1
1.23
0-0-2
2.77
1-0-1
2.38
1-1-0
2.61
0-1-1
2.21
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +3.7
Allowed 0.82 -5.9
Differential 0.94 +2.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%3.89%5.00%3.33%1.11%2.78%21.67%
13.89%4.44%6.67%3.89%2.22%4.44%25.56%
25.00%6.67%6.67%4.44%1.67%0.56%25.00%
33.33%3.89%4.44%1.11%—0.56%13.33%
41.11%2.22%1.67%——0.56%5.56%
5+2.78%4.44%0.56%0.56%0.56%—8.89%
Total21.67%25.56%25.00%13.33%5.56%8.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.90 1.90 +0.00
SD 1.71 1.71 2.66
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%16.67%——5.56%38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
25.56%5.56%11.11%——5.56%27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%38.89%5.56%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.06 -1.06
SD 0.97 1.92 2.15
CV 0.97 0.94 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%——5.56%—5.56%22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
25.56%11.11%5.56%16.67%——38.89%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+————5.56%—5.56%
Total27.78%22.22%11.11%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.83 -0.22
SD 1.29 1.62 1.99
CV 0.80 0.88 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%—5.56%———11.11%
25.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
3——5.56%———5.56%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.56 +0.56
SD 1.45 1.10 1.95
CV 0.69 0.70 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
1——5.56%———5.56%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+16.67%22.22%—5.56%——44.44%
Total33.33%38.89%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.28 1.06 +3.22
SD 2.30 1.00 2.69
CV 0.54 0.95 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
1——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
35.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total33.33%44.44%11.11%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.00 +1.06
SD 1.80 0.97 1.98
CV 0.87 0.97 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———11.11%——11.11%
15.56%—16.67%—11.11%5.56%38.89%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%16.67%27.78%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.94 -0.17
SD 1.26 1.51 2.43
CV 0.71 0.78 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
15.56%—5.56%16.67%——27.78%
2—5.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%—33.33%
3——11.11%——5.56%16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%27.78%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.22 -0.78
SD 1.04 1.86 1.52
CV 0.72 0.84 —
Max 3 8 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%—11.11%16.67%44.44%
15.56%5.56%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
25.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%27.78%5.56%11.11%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.67 -1.67
SD 1.08 2.22 2.97
CV 1.08 0.83 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
15.56%16.67%——5.56%5.56%33.33%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total16.67%38.89%16.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 1.83 +0.61
SD 1.76 1.58 2.50
CV 0.72 0.86 —
Max 7 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
1—11.11%16.67%5.56%—22.22%55.56%
2——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
3———————
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total11.11%11.11%38.89%11.11%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.83 -1.56
SD 1.32 2.15 2.73
CV 1.03 0.76 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ferencvaros 1518 32 28.17 +3.83 93.0% 22 23 26 28 30 33 35
MTK Budapest 1331 24 23.78 +0.22 59.0% 16 18 21 24 26 29 31
Budapesti AK 1228 21 20.04 +0.96 67.0% 10 14 18 20 22 26 29
Torekves SC 1199 22 16.49 +5.51 96.0% 8 11 14 16 19 22 26
Budapest TC 1134 18 17.54 +0.46 65.0% 10 12 15 17 20 23 26
Magyar AC 1110 17 16.28 +0.72 67.0% 8 11 14 16 18 23 25
Nemzeti SC 1080 12 15.83 -3.83 19.0% 5 10 13 15 19 22 25
Terezvarosi TC 1043 13 13.08 -0.08 54.0% 5 6 10 13 16 19 21
33FC 1028 13 12.88 +0.12 36.0% 2 6 10 13 15 20 23
Ujpest 1013 8 13.91 -5.91 4.0% 5 9 12 14 16 19 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+24.44%
Clear Edge
53.33%17.78%28.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge
126 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
086.68400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.53 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.69+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.3
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
86%
Ferencvaros, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.44/gm
Runaway
00.240.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.79 * Some Luck: 2.79 to 4.18 * Lucky: 4.18 to 5.58 * Wild Swing: 5.58 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.2 * Close: 1.2 to 1.79 * Off: 1.79 to 2.39 * Way Off: 2.39 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.16 points
Some Luck
03.499
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Close
01.503
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.00%
Torekves SC
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.00%
Ujpest
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.150.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 158.26
1.83
Moderate Separation
11.61.852.152.75
Interquartile Edge
73%
Clear Edge
50%65.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
95%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Few
0%43%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Very Frequent
0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.48
Notable Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.91
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.45
Weak Carryover
00.450.590.721
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Chalky
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.25
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.09
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.142
Well Within Noise
00.1640.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Ferencvaros86.00%12.00%2.00%———————
MTK Budapest11.00%59.00%19.00%9.00%1.00%1.00%————
Torekves SC—2.00%12.00%18.00%12.00%12.00%18.00%15.00%7.00%4.00%
Budapesti AK3.00%15.00%30.00%24.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%3.00%—1.00%
Budapest TC—6.00%11.00%18.00%23.00%16.00%7.00%10.00%5.00%4.00%
Magyar AC—3.00%11.00%11.00%18.00%16.00%12.00%13.00%8.00%8.00%
33FC———6.00%4.00%11.00%11.00%18.00%17.00%33.00%
Terezvarosi TC——3.00%4.00%8.00%9.00%12.00%11.00%24.00%29.00%
Nemzeti SC—3.00%10.00%7.00%14.00%15.00%17.00%13.00%16.00%5.00%
Ujpest——2.00%3.00%10.00%12.00%17.00%17.00%23.00%16.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
33FC 100%
Budapest TC 100%
Budapesti AK 100%
Ferencvaros 100%
MTK Budapest 100%
Magyar AC 100%
Nemzeti SC 100%
Terezvarosi TC 100%
Torekves SC 100%
Ujpest 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1910-09-04 Budapest TC W 3-240.5 1371 1163 73.49% 17.92% 8.58%+2.35 +2.9 2
1910-09-04 @ Ferencvaros L 2-340.5 1163 1371 8.58% 17.92% 73.49%-2.35 -2.9 0
1910-09-04 33FC W 3-135.2 1266 1144 68.28% 18.38% 13.34%+1.66 +7.9 2
1910-09-04 @ MTK Budapest L 1-335.2 1144 1266 13.34% 18.38% 68.28%-1.66 -7.9 0
1910-09-04 Nemzeti SC W 3-142.7 1050 1163 42.88% 18.85% 38.28%-0.22 +19.9 2
1910-09-04 @ Torekves SC L 1-342.7 1163 1050 38.28% 18.85% 42.88%+0.22 -19.9 0
1910-09-04 Magyar AC L 1-350.4 1140 1066 64.47% 18.57% 16.95%+1.27 -31.8 0
1910-09-04 @ Ujpest W 3-150.4 1066 1140 16.95% 18.57% 64.47%-1.27 +31.8 2
1910-09-11 Torekves SC D 1-153.3 1160 1069 65.91% 18.51% 15.58%+1.41 -3.7 1
1910-09-11 @ Budapest TC D 1-153.3 1069 1160 15.58% 18.51% 65.91%-1.41 +3.7 3
1910-09-11 Terezvarosi TC W 4-030.4 1164 1158 58.00% 18.76% 23.24%+0.74 +28.6 2
1910-09-11 @ Budapesti AK L 0-430.4 1158 1164 23.24% 18.76% 58.00%-0.74 -28.6 0
1910-09-11 Nemzeti SC W 8-332.0 1374 1144 74.58% 17.78% 7.64%+2.52 +7.9 4
1910-09-11 @ Ferencvaros L 3-832.0 1144 1374 7.64% 17.78% 74.58%-2.52 -7.9 0
1910-09-11 33FC D 2-257.7 1108 1136 54.06% 18.82% 27.12%+0.46 -1.4 1
1910-09-11 @ Ujpest D 2-257.7 1136 1108 27.12% 18.82% 54.06%-0.46 +1.4 1
1910-09-18 Ujpest W 3-030.3 1156 1106 62.38% 18.65% 18.97%+1.09 +18.3 3
1910-09-18 @ Budapest TC L 0-330.3 1106 1156 18.97% 18.65% 62.38%-1.09 -18.3 1
1910-09-18 Terezvarosi TC W 5-135.9 1098 1129 53.70% 18.82% 27.48%+0.44 +27.5 4
1910-09-18 @ Magyar AC L 1-535.9 1129 1098 27.48% 18.82% 53.70%-0.44 -27.5 0
1910-09-18 MTK Budapest L 0-236.1 1073 1274 30.98% 18.71% 50.31%-0.91 -19.2 3
1910-09-18 @ Torekves SC W 2-036.1 1274 1073 50.31% 18.71% 30.98%+0.91 +19.2 4
1910-09-25 Nemzeti SC W 2-138.6 1193 1136 63.04% 18.63% 18.33%+1.15 +6.1 4
1910-09-25 @ Budapesti AK L 1-238.6 1136 1193 18.33% 18.63% 63.04%-1.15 -6.1 0
1910-10-06 Budapesti AK D 2-257.8 1175 1199 54.53% 18.81% 26.66%+0.50 -1.5 4
1910-10-06 @ Budapest TC D 2-257.8 1199 1175 26.66% 18.81% 54.53%-0.50 +1.5 5
1910-10-09 Torekves SC L 1-448.5 1125 1054 64.31% 18.58% 17.11%+1.26 -44.9 4
1910-10-09 @ Magyar AC W 4-148.5 1054 1125 17.11% 18.58% 64.31%-1.26 +44.9 5
1910-10-09 MTK Budapest W 1-042.9 1130 1293 35.89% 18.79% 45.32%-0.61 +14.0 2
1910-10-09 @ Nemzeti SC L 0-142.9 1293 1130 45.32% 18.79% 35.89%+0.61 -14.0 4
1910-10-09 Ferencvaros L 0-430.2 1102 1382 21.98% 18.45% 59.57%-1.54 -27.1 0
1910-10-09 @ Terezvarosi TC W 4-030.2 1382 1102 59.57% 18.45% 21.98%+1.54 +27.1 6
1910-10-16 Budapest TC L 1-249.0 1137 1173 53.17% 18.82% 28.01%+0.41 -15.2 1
1910-10-16 @ 33FC W 2-149.0 1173 1137 28.01% 18.82% 53.17%-0.41 +15.2 6
1910-10-16 Ujpest W 4-239.6 1201 1088 67.59% 18.42% 13.99%+1.59 +7.4 7
1910-10-16 @ Budapesti AK L 2-439.6 1088 1201 13.99% 18.42% 67.59%-1.59 -7.4 1
1910-10-16 Terezvarosi TC W 3-133.6 1279 1075 73.32% 17.94% 8.74%+2.32 +5.3 6
1910-10-16 @ MTK Budapest L 1-333.6 1075 1279 8.74% 17.94% 73.32%-2.32 -5.3 0
1910-10-16 Ferencvaros L 1-435.3 1099 1409 19.12% 18.31% 62.57%-1.78 -15.4 5
1910-10-16 @ Torekves SC W 4-135.3 1409 1099 62.57% 18.31% 19.12%+1.78 +15.4 8
1910-10-23 Magyar AC W 2-138.9 1122 1081 61.59% 18.67% 19.74%+1.02 +6.5 3
1910-10-23 @ 33FC L 1-238.9 1081 1122 19.74% 18.67% 61.59%-1.02 -6.5 4
1910-10-23 Ferencvaros L 2-445.2 1208 1424 29.06% 18.67% 52.27%-1.03 -14.1 7
1910-10-23 @ Budapesti AK W 4-245.2 1424 1208 52.27% 18.67% 29.06%+1.03 +14.1 10
1910-10-23 Ujpest D 1-153.2 1069 1081 56.04% 18.79% 25.17%+0.60 -2.2 1
1910-10-23 @ Terezvarosi TC D 1-153.2 1081 1069 25.17% 18.79% 56.04%-0.60 +2.2 2
1910-10-30 Torekves SC D 1-153.2 1129 1083 61.95% 18.66% 19.39%+1.05 -3.1 4
1910-10-30 @ 33FC D 1-153.2 1083 1129 19.39% 18.66% 61.95%-1.05 +3.1 6
1910-10-30 MTK Budapest W 3-142.2 1188 1284 45.37% 18.85% 35.77%-0.07 +18.8 8
1910-10-30 @ Budapest TC L 1-342.2 1284 1188 35.77% 18.85% 45.37%+0.07 -18.8 6
1910-10-30 Magyar AC W 2-137.0 1194 1074 68.13% 18.39% 13.49%+1.64 +4.6 9
1910-10-30 @ Budapesti AK L 1-237.0 1074 1194 13.49% 18.39% 68.13%-1.64 -4.6 4
1910-10-30 Ujpest W 7-127.1 1438 1083 79.22% 16.84% 3.93%+3.52 +6.4 12
1910-10-30 @ Ferencvaros L 1-727.1 1083 1438 3.93% 16.84% 79.22%-3.52 -6.3 2
1910-10-30 Terezvarosi TC L 0-148.5 1144 1067 64.73% 18.56% 16.71%+1.30 -19.6 2
1910-10-30 @ Nemzeti SC W 1-048.5 1067 1144 16.71% 18.56% 64.73%-1.30 +19.6 3
1910-11-13 Terezvarosi TC W 2-030.7 1207 1087 68.18% 18.39% 13.43%+1.65 +9.2 10
1910-11-13 @ Budapest TC L 0-230.7 1087 1207 13.43% 18.39% 68.18%-1.65 -9.2 3
1910-11-13 Ferencvaros W 3-045.3 1069 1445 13.94% 17.96% 68.10%-2.30 +56.2 6
1910-11-13 @ Magyar AC L 0-345.3 1445 1069 68.10% 17.96% 13.94%+2.30 -56.2 12
1910-11-13 Budapesti AK W 2-138.5 1266 1198 63.93% 18.59% 17.48%+1.22 +5.9 8
1910-11-13 @ MTK Budapest L 1-238.5 1198 1266 17.48% 18.59% 63.93%-1.22 -5.9 9
1910-11-13 Ujpest W 2-138.7 1124 1076 62.14% 18.66% 19.20%+1.07 +6.4 4
1910-11-13 @ Nemzeti SC L 1-238.7 1076 1124 19.20% 18.66% 62.14%-1.07 -6.4 2
1910-11-20 Nemzeti SC W 3-245.0 1126 1130 56.78% 18.78% 24.44%+0.65 +7.5 6
1910-11-20 @ 33FC L 2-345.0 1130 1126 24.44% 18.78% 56.78%-0.65 -7.5 4
1910-11-20 Magyar AC L 0-344.4 1216 1126 65.92% 18.51% 15.57%+1.41 -54.6 10
1910-11-20 @ Budapest TC W 3-044.4 1126 1216 15.57% 18.51% 65.92%-1.41 +54.6 8
1910-11-20 Ujpest W 6-129.1 1271 1070 73.15% 17.96% 8.88%+2.29 +12.0 10
1910-11-20 @ MTK Budapest L 1-629.1 1070 1271 8.88% 17.96% 73.15%-2.29 -12.0 2
1910-11-20 Budapesti AK L 2-350.9 1086 1193 43.96% 18.85% 37.19%-0.16 -12.2 6
1910-11-20 @ Torekves SC W 3-250.9 1193 1086 37.19% 18.85% 43.96%+0.16 +12.2 11
1910-11-27 Budapesti AK W 1-039.0 1133 1205 48.64% 18.85% 32.51%+0.12 +10.6 8
1910-11-27 @ 33FC L 0-139.0 1205 1133 32.51% 18.85% 48.64%-0.12 -10.6 11
1910-11-27 Nemzeti SC L 2-356.5 1180 1123 63.05% 18.63% 18.33%+1.15 -17.0 8
1910-11-27 @ Magyar AC W 3-256.5 1123 1180 18.33% 18.63% 63.05%-1.15 +17.0 6
1910-11-27 Ferencvaros W 2-145.7 1284 1388 44.13% 18.85% 37.02%-0.15 +11.2 12
1910-11-27 @ MTK Budapest L 1-245.7 1388 1284 37.02% 18.85% 44.13%+0.15 -11.2 12
1910-11-27 Terezvarosi TC W 7-030.9 1074 1078 56.93% 18.78% 24.29%+0.66 +50.3 8
1910-11-27 @ Torekves SC L 0-730.9 1078 1074 24.29% 18.78% 56.93%-0.66 -50.3 3
1910-12-04 MTK Budapest L 0-337.1 1163 1295 40.37% 18.83% 40.79%-0.36 -34.8 8
1910-12-04 @ Magyar AC W 3-037.1 1295 1163 40.79% 18.83% 40.37%+0.36 +34.8 14
1910-12-04 Budapest TC W 3-245.6 1140 1162 54.81% 18.81% 26.38%+0.52 +8.0 8
1910-12-04 @ Nemzeti SC L 2-345.6 1162 1140 26.38% 18.81% 54.81%-0.52 -8.0 10
1910-12-04 33FC D 2-257.6 1027 1144 42.49% 18.84% 38.66%-0.24 -0.2 4
1910-12-04 @ Terezvarosi TC D 2-257.6 1144 1027 38.66% 18.84% 42.49%+0.24 +0.2 9
1910-12-04 Torekves SC L 0-241.5 1058 1125 49.31% 18.85% 31.84%+0.16 -28.4 2
1910-12-04 @ Ujpest W 2-041.5 1125 1058 31.84% 18.85% 49.31%-0.16 +28.4 10
1910-12-26 Ferencvaros L 0-732.2 1144 1377 27.03% 18.62% 54.35%-1.17 -55.0 9
1910-12-26 @ 33FC W 7-032.2 1377 1144 54.35% 18.62% 27.03%+1.17 +55.0 14
1911-02-12 Terezvarosi TC L 0-245.7 1089 1027 63.47% 18.61% 17.92%+1.18 -36.2 9
1911-02-12 @ 33FC W 2-045.7 1027 1089 17.92% 18.61% 63.47%-1.18 +36.2 6
1911-02-12 MTK Budapest W 2-140.1 1432 1329 66.86% 18.46% 14.67%+1.51 +5.0 16
1911-02-12 @ Ferencvaros L 1-240.1 1329 1432 14.67% 18.46% 66.86%-1.51 -5.0 14
1911-02-12 Budapest TC W 3-245.7 1128 1154 54.39% 18.81% 26.80%+0.49 +8.1 10
1911-02-12 @ Magyar AC L 2-345.7 1154 1128 26.80% 18.81% 54.39%-0.49 -8.1 10
1911-02-12 Budapesti AK L 1-538.4 1030 1194 35.75% 18.79% 45.46%-0.62 -34.3 2
1911-02-12 @ Ujpest W 5-138.4 1194 1030 45.46% 18.79% 35.75%+0.62 +34.3 13
1911-02-26 Ferencvaros L 0-529.9 1146 1437 20.84% 18.40% 60.76%-1.63 -31.9 10
1911-02-26 @ Budapest TC W 5-029.9 1437 1146 60.76% 18.40% 20.84%+1.63 +31.9 18
1911-02-26 33FC W 1-032.0 1228 1053 71.74% 18.11% 10.15%+2.09 +3.8 15
1911-02-26 @ Budapesti AK L 0-132.0 1053 1228 10.15% 18.11% 71.74%-2.09 -3.8 9
1911-02-26 Torekves SC L 1-348.2 1148 1153 56.74% 18.78% 24.48%+0.65 -28.0 8
1911-02-26 @ Nemzeti SC W 3-148.2 1153 1148 24.48% 18.78% 56.74%-0.65 +28.0 12
1911-02-26 Terezvarosi TC W 5-032.6 995 1063 49.14% 18.85% 32.01%+0.15 +46.3 4
1911-02-26 @ Ujpest L 0-532.6 1063 995 32.01% 18.85% 49.14%-0.15 -46.3 6
1911-03-05 33FC W 2-027.3 1469 1049 80.95% 16.27% 2.78%+4.03 +1.9 20
1911-03-05 @ Ferencvaros L 0-227.3 1049 1469 2.78% 16.27% 80.95%-4.03 -1.9 9
1911-03-05 Budapesti AK W 1-040.0 1136 1232 45.41% 18.85% 35.74%-0.07 +11.5 12
1911-03-05 @ Magyar AC L 0-140.0 1232 1136 35.74% 18.85% 45.41%+0.07 -11.5 15
1911-03-05 Torekves SC D 3-362.5 1324 1181 69.76% 18.28% 11.96%+1.83 -2.7 15
1911-03-05 @ MTK Budapest D 3-362.5 1181 1324 11.96% 18.28% 69.76%-1.83 +2.7 13
1911-03-05 Nemzeti SC W 4-245.4 1042 1120 47.76% 18.85% 33.38%+0.07 +15.9 6
1911-03-05 @ Ujpest L 2-445.4 1120 1042 33.38% 18.85% 47.76%-0.07 -15.9 8
1911-03-12 Budapest TC W 2-143.8 1017 1114 45.21% 18.85% 35.94%-0.08 +10.9 8
1911-03-12 @ Terezvarosi TC L 1-243.8 1114 1017 35.94% 18.85% 45.21%+0.08 -10.9 10
1911-03-19 MTK Budapest W 2-038.2 1221 1322 44.66% 18.85% 36.49%-0.12 +22.1 17
1911-03-19 @ Budapesti AK L 0-238.2 1322 1221 36.49% 18.85% 44.66%+0.12 -22.1 15
1911-03-19 Ujpest W 2-137.6 1148 1058 65.89% 18.51% 15.60%+1.41 +5.3 14
1911-03-19 @ Magyar AC L 1-237.6 1058 1148 15.60% 18.51% 65.89%-1.41 -5.3 6
1911-03-19 33FC D 0-050.1 1104 1047 63.01% 18.63% 18.36%+1.14 -3.6 9
1911-03-19 @ Nemzeti SC D 0-050.1 1047 1104 18.36% 18.63% 63.01%-1.14 +3.6 10
1911-03-19 Torekves SC L 0-140.2 1028 1184 36.93% 18.80% 44.27%-0.55 -11.8 8
1911-03-19 @ Terezvarosi TC W 1-040.2 1184 1028 44.27% 18.80% 36.93%+0.55 +11.8 15
1911-03-25 Ferencvaros L 1-335.9 1100 1471 14.26% 17.99% 67.76%-2.26 -8.4 9
1911-03-25 @ Nemzeti SC W 3-135.9 1471 1100 67.76% 17.99% 14.26%+2.26 +8.3 22
1911-03-26 33FC D 0-050.1 1103 1051 62.59% 18.64% 18.77%+1.11 -3.5 11
1911-03-26 @ Budapest TC D 0-050.1 1051 1103 18.77% 18.64% 62.59%-1.11 +3.5 11
1911-04-02 Budapesti AK D 2-257.7 1016 1243 27.79% 18.64% 53.57%-1.12 +1.3 9
1911-04-02 @ Terezvarosi TC D 2-257.7 1243 1016 53.57% 18.64% 27.79%+1.12 -1.3 18
1911-04-02 Magyar AC W 2-139.0 1196 1153 61.64% 18.67% 19.69%+1.03 +6.5 17
1911-04-02 @ Torekves SC L 1-239.0 1153 1196 19.69% 18.67% 61.64%-1.03 -6.5 14
1911-04-09 Torekves SC W 5-130.7 1479 1202 76.59% 17.46% 5.96%+2.90 +6.6 24
1911-04-09 @ Ferencvaros L 1-530.7 1202 1479 5.96% 17.46% 76.59%-2.90 -6.7 17
1911-04-09 33FC W 2-031.3 1147 1054 66.05% 18.50% 15.45%+1.43 +10.5 16
1911-04-09 @ Magyar AC L 0-231.3 1054 1147 15.45% 18.50% 66.05%-1.43 -10.5 11
1911-04-09 Budapest TC D 0-050.5 1300 1100 73.09% 17.97% 8.94%+2.28 -5.5 16
1911-04-09 @ MTK Budapest D 0-050.5 1100 1300 8.94% 17.97% 73.09%-2.28 +5.5 12
1911-04-09 Nemzeti SC W 3-247.5 1017 1092 48.22% 18.85% 32.92%+0.09 +9.6 11
1911-04-09 @ Terezvarosi TC L 2-347.5 1092 1017 32.92% 18.85% 48.22%-0.09 -9.6 9
1911-04-15 Nemzeti SC D 0-050.5 1294 1082 73.69% 17.90% 8.41%+2.38 -5.6 17
1911-04-15 @ MTK Budapest D 0-050.5 1082 1294 8.41% 17.90% 73.69%-2.38 +5.6 10
1911-04-23 Terezvarosi TC W 7-023.9 1486 1027 81.85% 15.90% 2.25%+4.35 +5.0 26
1911-04-23 @ Ferencvaros L 0-723.9 1027 1486 2.25% 15.90% 81.85%-4.35 -5.0 11
1911-04-23 Ujpest D 1-153.4 1195 1052 69.73% 18.28% 11.99%+1.83 -4.3 18
1911-04-23 @ Torekves SC D 1-153.4 1052 1195 11.99% 18.28% 69.73%-1.83 +4.3 7
1911-04-30 Budapest TC W 4-132.9 1241 1105 69.29% 18.31% 12.40%+1.78 +10.5 20
1911-04-30 @ Budapesti AK L 1-432.9 1105 1241 12.40% 18.31% 69.29%-1.78 -10.5 12
1911-04-30 Magyar AC D 2-257.6 1088 1157 48.96% 18.85% 32.19%+0.14 -0.8 11
1911-04-30 @ Nemzeti SC D 2-257.6 1157 1088 32.19% 18.85% 48.96%-0.14 +0.8 17
1911-04-30 Ferencvaros L 1-729.3 1057 1491 10.34% 17.57% 72.08%-2.77 -16.3 7
1911-04-30 @ Ujpest W 7-129.3 1491 1057 72.08% 17.57% 10.34%+2.77 +16.3 28
1911-05-10 MTK Budapest L 0-233.7 1022 1289 23.32% 18.50% 58.19%-1.43 -15.1 11
1911-05-10 @ Terezvarosi TC W 2-033.7 1289 1022 58.19% 18.50% 23.32%+1.43 +15.0 19
1911-05-11 33FC W 5-236.2 1191 1044 70.00% 18.26% 11.74%+1.86 +8.6 20
1911-05-11 @ Torekves SC L 2-536.2 1044 1191 11.74% 18.26% 70.00%-1.86 -8.6 11
1911-05-14 MTK Budapest L 1-534.6 1035 1304 23.14% 18.49% 58.37%-1.45 -23.6 11
1911-05-14 @ 33FC W 5-134.6 1304 1035 58.37% 18.49% 23.14%+1.45 +23.6 21
1911-05-14 Magyar AC W 5-129.8 1507 1158 79.04% 16.89% 4.06%+3.47 +4.5 30
1911-05-14 @ Ferencvaros L 1-529.8 1158 1507 4.06% 16.89% 79.04%-3.47 -4.5 17
1911-05-14 Budapesti AK D 2-257.7 1087 1252 35.73% 18.79% 45.49%-0.62 +0.5 12
1911-05-14 @ Nemzeti SC D 2-257.7 1252 1087 45.49% 18.79% 35.73%+0.62 -0.5 21
1911-05-14 Budapest TC L 1-248.3 1040 1095 50.88% 18.84% 30.28%+0.26 -14.6 7
1911-05-14 @ Ujpest W 2-148.3 1095 1040 30.28% 18.84% 50.88%-0.26 +14.6 14
1911-05-21 Nemzeti SC W 1-035.6 1109 1088 59.58% 18.72% 21.69%+0.86 +7.5 16
1911-05-21 @ Budapest TC L 0-135.6 1088 1109 21.69% 18.72% 59.58%-0.86 -7.5 12
1911-05-21 Magyar AC W 3-037.5 1007 1154 38.21% 18.81% 42.97%-0.48 +36.6 13
1911-05-21 @ Terezvarosi TC L 0-337.5 1154 1007 42.97% 18.81% 38.21%+0.48 -36.6 17
1911-05-21 MTK Budapest D 0-050.3 1026 1327 19.87% 18.35% 61.78%-1.71 +3.4 8
1911-05-21 @ Ujpest D 0-050.3 1327 1026 61.78% 18.35% 19.87%+1.71 -3.4 22
1911-05-25 Torekves SC L 2-356.6 1251 1200 62.54% 18.64% 18.82%+1.10 -16.9 21
1911-05-25 @ Budapesti AK W 3-256.6 1200 1251 18.82% 18.64% 62.54%-1.10 +16.9 22
1911-05-28 Ujpest W 2-034.4 1012 1029 55.33% 18.80% 25.87%+0.55 +16.5 13
1911-05-28 @ 33FC L 0-234.4 1029 1012 25.87% 18.80% 55.33%-0.55 -16.5 8
1911-05-28 Budapesti AK W 3-028.6 1512 1234 76.59% 17.46% 5.96%+2.90 +6.1 32
1911-05-28 @ Ferencvaros L 0-328.6 1234 1512 5.96% 17.46% 76.59%-2.90 -6.1 21
1911-05-28 Magyar AC W 4-131.8 1324 1117 73.45% 17.93% 8.62%+2.34 +7.4 24
1911-05-28 @ MTK Budapest L 1-431.8 1117 1324 8.62% 17.93% 73.45%-2.34 -7.4 17
1911-05-28 Budapest TC L 4-563.2 1217 1117 66.63% 18.47% 14.89%+1.49 -17.3 22
1911-05-28 @ Torekves SC W 5-463.2 1117 1217 14.89% 18.47% 66.63%-1.49 +17.3 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1910-11-13 13.94% @ Magyar AC 1069 3 Ferencvaros 1445 0
2 1911-05-28 14.89% Budapest TC 1117 5 @ Torekves SC 1217 4
3 1910-11-20 15.57% Magyar AC 1126 3 @ Budapest TC 1216 0
4 1910-10-30 16.71% Terezvarosi TC 1067 1 @ Nemzeti SC 1144 0
5 1910-09-04 16.95% Magyar AC 1066 3 @ Ujpest 1140 1
6 1910-10-09 17.11% Torekves SC 1054 4 @ Magyar AC 1125 1
7 1911-02-12 17.92% Terezvarosi TC 1027 2 @ 33FC 1089 0
8 1910-11-27 18.33% Nemzeti SC 1123 3 @ Magyar AC 1180 2
9 1911-05-25 18.82% Torekves SC 1200 3 @ Budapesti AK 1251 2
10 1911-02-26 24.48% Torekves SC 1153 3 @ Nemzeti SC 1148 1
11 1910-10-16 28.01% Budapest TC 1173 2 @ 33FC 1137 1
12 1911-05-14 30.28% Budapest TC 1095 2 @ Ujpest 1040 1
13 1910-12-04 31.84% Torekves SC 1125 2 @ Ujpest 1058 0
14 1910-10-09 35.89% @ Nemzeti SC 1130 1 MTK Budapest 1293 0
15 1910-11-20 37.19% Budapesti AK 1193 3 @ Torekves SC 1086 2
16 1911-05-21 38.21% @ Terezvarosi TC 1007 3 Magyar AC 1154 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1910-11-13 56.20 @ Magyar AC 3 1069 13.94% Ferencvaros 0 1445 68.10% 17.96%
2 1910-12-26 55.03 Ferencvaros 7 1377 54.35% @ 33FC 0 1144 27.03% 18.62%
3 1910-11-20 54.60 Magyar AC 3 1126 15.57% @ Budapest TC 0 1216 65.92% 18.51%
4 1910-11-27 50.35 @ Torekves SC 7 1074 56.93% Terezvarosi TC 0 1078 24.29% 18.78%
5 1911-02-26 46.31 @ Ujpest 5 995 49.14% Terezvarosi TC 0 1063 32.01% 18.85%
6 1910-10-09 44.88 Torekves SC 4 1054 17.11% @ Magyar AC 1 1125 64.31% 18.58%
7 1911-05-21 36.63 @ Terezvarosi TC 3 1007 38.21% Magyar AC 0 1154 42.97% 18.81%
8 1911-02-12 36.15 Terezvarosi TC 2 1027 17.92% @ 33FC 0 1089 63.47% 18.61%
9 1910-12-04 34.80 MTK Budapest 3 1295 40.79% @ Magyar AC 0 1163 40.37% 18.83%
10 1911-02-12 34.29 Budapesti AK 5 1194 45.46% @ Ujpest 1 1030 35.75% 18.79%
11 1911-02-26 31.86 Ferencvaros 5 1437 60.76% @ Budapest TC 0 1146 20.84% 18.40%
12 1910-09-04 31.82 Magyar AC 3 1066 16.95% @ Ujpest 1 1140 64.47% 18.57%
13 1910-09-11 28.59 @ Budapesti AK 4 1164 58.00% Terezvarosi TC 0 1158 23.24% 18.76%
14 1910-12-04 28.41 Torekves SC 2 1125 31.84% @ Ujpest 0 1058 49.31% 18.85%
15 1911-02-26 28.03 Torekves SC 3 1153 24.48% @ Nemzeti SC 1 1148 56.74% 18.78%
16 1910-09-18 27.53 @ Magyar AC 5 1098 53.70% Terezvarosi TC 1 1129 27.48% 18.82%
17 1910-10-09 27.10 Ferencvaros 4 1382 59.57% @ Terezvarosi TC 0 1102 21.98% 18.45%
18 1911-05-14 23.63 MTK Budapest 5 1304 58.37% @ 33FC 1 1035 23.14% 18.49%
19 1911-03-19 22.07 @ Budapesti AK 2 1221 44.66% MTK Budapest 0 1322 36.49% 18.85%
20 1910-09-04 19.88 @ Torekves SC 3 1050 42.88% Nemzeti SC 1 1163 38.28% 18.85%
21 1910-10-30 19.56 Terezvarosi TC 1 1067 16.71% @ Nemzeti SC 0 1144 64.73% 18.56%
22 1910-09-18 19.24 MTK Budapest 2 1274 50.31% @ Torekves SC 0 1073 30.98% 18.71%
23 1910-10-30 18.80 @ Budapest TC 3 1188 45.37% MTK Budapest 1 1284 35.77% 18.85%
24 1910-09-18 18.30 @ Budapest TC 3 1156 62.38% Ujpest 0 1106 18.97% 18.65%
25 1911-05-28 17.35 Budapest TC 5 1117 14.89% @ Torekves SC 4 1217 66.63% 18.47%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1911-05-28 63.2 Budapest TC 5 1117 14.89% @ Torekves SC 4 1217 66.63% 18.47%
2 1911-03-05 62.5 @ MTK Budapest 3 1324 69.76% Torekves SC 3 1181 11.96% 18.28%
3 1910-10-06 57.8 @ Budapest TC 2 1175 54.53% Budapesti AK 2 1199 26.66% 18.81%
4 1910-09-11 57.7 @ Ujpest 2 1108 54.06% 33FC 2 1136 27.12% 18.82%
5 1911-04-02 57.7 @ Terezvarosi TC 2 1016 27.79% Budapesti AK 2 1243 53.57% 18.64%
6 1911-05-14 57.7 @ Nemzeti SC 2 1087 35.73% Budapesti AK 2 1252 45.49% 18.79%
7 1910-12-04 57.6 @ Terezvarosi TC 2 1027 42.49% 33FC 2 1144 38.66% 18.84%
8 1911-04-30 57.6 @ Nemzeti SC 2 1088 48.96% Magyar AC 2 1157 32.19% 18.85%
9 1911-05-25 56.6 Torekves SC 3 1200 18.82% @ Budapesti AK 2 1251 62.54% 18.64%
10 1910-11-27 56.5 Nemzeti SC 3 1123 18.33% @ Magyar AC 2 1180 63.05% 18.63%
11 1911-04-23 53.4 @ Torekves SC 1 1195 69.73% Ujpest 1 1052 11.99% 18.28%
12 1910-09-11 53.3 @ Budapest TC 1 1160 65.91% Torekves SC 1 1069 15.58% 18.51%
13 1910-10-23 53.2 @ Terezvarosi TC 1 1069 56.04% Ujpest 1 1081 25.17% 18.79%
14 1910-10-30 53.2 @ 33FC 1 1129 61.95% Torekves SC 1 1083 19.39% 18.66%
15 1910-11-20 50.9 Budapesti AK 3 1193 37.19% @ Torekves SC 2 1086 43.96% 18.85%
16 1911-04-09 50.5 @ MTK Budapest 0 1300 73.09% Budapest TC 0 1100 8.94% 17.97%
17 1911-04-15 50.5 @ MTK Budapest 0 1294 73.69% Nemzeti SC 0 1082 8.41% 17.90%
18 1910-09-04 50.4 Magyar AC 3 1066 16.95% @ Ujpest 1 1140 64.47% 18.57%
19 1911-05-21 50.3 @ Ujpest 0 1026 19.87% MTK Budapest 0 1327 61.78% 18.35%
20 1911-03-19 50.1 @ Nemzeti SC 0 1104 63.01% 33FC 0 1047 18.36% 18.63%
21 1911-03-26 50.1 @ Budapest TC 0 1103 62.59% 33FC 0 1051 18.77% 18.64%
22 1910-10-16 49.0 Budapest TC 2 1173 28.01% @ 33FC 1 1137 53.17% 18.82%
23 1910-10-09 48.5 Torekves SC 4 1054 17.11% @ Magyar AC 1 1125 64.31% 18.58%
24 1910-10-30 48.5 Terezvarosi TC 1 1067 16.71% @ Nemzeti SC 0 1144 64.73% 18.56%
25 1911-05-14 48.3 Budapest TC 2 1095 30.28% @ Ujpest 1 1040 50.88% 18.84%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1911-04-23 23.9 @ Ferencvaros 7 1486 81.85% Terezvarosi TC 0 1027 2.25% 15.90%
2 1910-10-30 27.1 @ Ferencvaros 7 1438 79.22% Ujpest 1 1083 3.93% 16.84%
3 1911-03-05 27.3 @ Ferencvaros 2 1469 80.95% 33FC 0 1049 2.78% 16.27%
4 1911-05-28 28.6 @ Ferencvaros 3 1512 76.59% Budapesti AK 0 1234 5.96% 17.46%
5 1910-11-20 29.1 @ MTK Budapest 6 1271 73.15% Ujpest 1 1070 8.88% 17.96%
6 1911-04-30 29.3 Ferencvaros 7 1491 72.08% @ Ujpest 1 1057 10.34% 17.57%
7 1911-05-14 29.8 @ Ferencvaros 5 1507 79.04% Magyar AC 1 1158 4.06% 16.89%
8 1911-02-26 29.9 Ferencvaros 5 1437 60.76% @ Budapest TC 0 1146 20.84% 18.40%
9 1910-10-09 30.2 Ferencvaros 4 1382 59.57% @ Terezvarosi TC 0 1102 21.98% 18.45%
10 1910-09-18 30.3 @ Budapest TC 3 1156 62.38% Ujpest 0 1106 18.97% 18.65%
11 1910-09-11 30.4 @ Budapesti AK 4 1164 58.00% Terezvarosi TC 0 1158 23.24% 18.76%
12 1910-11-13 30.7 @ Budapest TC 2 1207 68.18% Terezvarosi TC 0 1087 13.43% 18.39%
13 1911-04-09 30.7 @ Ferencvaros 5 1479 76.59% Torekves SC 1 1202 5.96% 17.46%
14 1910-11-27 30.9 @ Torekves SC 7 1074 56.93% Terezvarosi TC 0 1078 24.29% 18.78%
15 1911-04-09 31.3 @ Magyar AC 2 1147 66.05% 33FC 0 1054 15.45% 18.50%
16 1911-05-28 31.8 @ MTK Budapest 4 1324 73.45% Magyar AC 1 1117 8.62% 17.93%
17 1910-09-11 32.0 @ Ferencvaros 8 1374 74.58% Nemzeti SC 3 1144 7.64% 17.78%
18 1911-02-26 32.0 @ Budapesti AK 1 1228 71.74% 33FC 0 1053 10.15% 18.11%
19 1910-12-26 32.2 Ferencvaros 7 1377 54.35% @ 33FC 0 1144 27.03% 18.62%
20 1911-02-26 32.6 @ Ujpest 5 995 49.14% Terezvarosi TC 0 1063 32.01% 18.85%
21 1911-04-30 32.9 @ Budapesti AK 4 1241 69.29% Budapest TC 1 1105 12.40% 18.31%
22 1910-10-16 33.6 @ MTK Budapest 3 1279 73.32% Terezvarosi TC 1 1075 8.74% 17.94%
23 1911-05-10 33.7 MTK Budapest 2 1289 58.19% @ Terezvarosi TC 0 1022 23.32% 18.50%
24 1911-05-28 34.4 @ 33FC 2 1012 55.33% Ujpest 0 1029 25.87% 18.80%
25 1911-05-14 34.6 MTK Budapest 5 1304 58.37% @ 33FC 1 1035 23.14% 18.49%