1911-12 I. Osztály Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Ferencvaros

30 points · 7th Title

Last Title: 1910-11

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Terezvarosi TC

3.07 points above expected

17 points · 13.93 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

III. Kerulet

5.26 points below expected

12 points · 17.26 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Ferencvaros Champion	18	14	2	2	30	74	17	+57	27.92	+2.08
2	MTK Budapest	18	9	4	5	22	38	22	+16	22.32	-0.32
3	Budapesti AK	18	8	4	6	20	36	36	0	19.57	+0.43
4	Magyar AC	18	8	3	7	19	37	39	-2	15.97	+3.03
5	Terezvarosi TC	18	7	3	8	17	24	43	-19	13.93	+3.07
6	Torekves SC	18	7	2	9	16	25	25	0	17.68	-1.68
7	Nemzeti SC	18	7	2	9	16	26	39	-13	15.59	+0.41
8	Budapest TC	18	6	3	9	15	29	30	-1	16.03	-1.03
9	33FC	18	5	3	10	13	16	34	-18	13.73	-0.73
10	III. Kerulet	18	5	2	11	12	25	45	-20	17.26	-5.26

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Terezvarosi TC	17	13.93	+3.07
2	Magyar AC	19	15.97	+3.03
3	Ferencvaros	30	27.92	+2.08
4	Budapesti AK	20	19.57	+0.43
5	Nemzeti SC	16	15.59	+0.41

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	III. Kerulet	12	17.26	-5.26
2	Torekves SC	16	17.68	-1.68
3	Budapest TC	15	16.03	-1.03
4	33FC	13	13.73	-0.73
5	MTK Budapest	22	22.32	-0.32

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Budapest TC	3	Jun 2 – Jun 9	1 in 166
2	Nemzeti SC	4	Nov 19 – Feb 2	1 in 57
3	Torekves SC	2	Mar 24 – Mar 31	1 in 28
4	Magyar AC	4	Mar 31 – May 26	1 in 24
5	Budapesti AK	5	Dec 3 – Mar 10	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Budapest TC	8	Oct 22 – Mar 17	1 in 1,506
2	Nemzeti SC	4	Mar 17 – Apr 7	1 in 88
3	Torekves SC	3	Sep 3 – Sep 24	1 in 21
4	33FC	2	Nov 19 – Nov 26	1 in 6
5	III. Kerulet	4	Nov 1 – Dec 3	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Nemzeti SC	5	Nov 12 – Feb 2	1 in 45
2	MTK Budapest	8	Sep 24 – Dec 8	1 in 15
3	Budapest TC	4	Sep 3 – Oct 8	1 in 11
4	33FC	3	Oct 8 – Nov 12	1 in 7
5	Magyar AC	4	Mar 31 – May 26	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Budapest TC	9	Oct 22 – Apr 28	1 in 99
2	33FC	4	Oct 15 – Nov 26	1 in 18
3	Torekves SC	4	Sep 3 – Oct 1	1 in 16
4	Nemzeti SC	4	Mar 17 – Apr 7	1 in 14
5	Budapesti AK	6	Sep 24 – Nov 26	1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Ferencvaros	1555	30	+29	7	7.2	-0.2
MTK Budapest	1314	22	-5	6	6.1	-0.1
Budapesti AK	1199	20	-24	4	5.4	-1.4
Magyar AC	1179	19	+49	7	4.7	+2.3
Terezvarosi TC	1097	17	-26	3	3.0	-0.0
Torekves SC	1188	16	-9	6	5.2	+0.8
Nemzeti SC	1037	16	-85	2	4.6	-2.6
Budapest TC	1164	15	+84	8	3.8	+4.2
33FC	1030	13	+8	3	4.3	-1.3
III. Kerulet	1101	12	-80	3	5.7	-2.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	33F	BT	BA	FER	IK	MB	MA	NS	TT	TS
33FC	—	1-1-0 2.47	0-1-1 2.08	0-0-2 0.74	2-0-0 1.92	0-0-2 1.62	0-0-2 2.28	0-0-2 2.71	0-1-1 2.79	2-0-0 2.04
Budapest TC	0-1-1 3.20	—	0-0-2 2.19	1-0-1 1.27	1-1-0 2.40	1-0-1 2.02	1-1-0 2.60	0-0-2 2.87	1-0-1 3.06	1-0-1 2.54
Budapesti AK	1-1-0 3.60	2-0-0 3.49	—	0-0-2 1.42	1-0-1 3.03	0-1-1 2.45	1-0-1 3.43	1-1-0 3.61	1-0-1 3.69	1-1-0 3.05
Ferencvaros	2-0-0 4.96	1-0-1 4.43	2-0-0 4.26	—	2-0-0 4.64	0-1-1 3.94	2-0-0 4.59	2-0-0 4.47	1-1-0 4.87	2-0-0 4.36
III. Kerulet	0-0-2 3.75	0-1-1 3.28	1-0-1 2.65	0-0-2 1.05	—	1-0-1 2.09	0-1-1 2.85	1-0-1 3.28	2-0-0 3.40	0-0-2 2.90
MTK Budapest	2-0-0 4.05	1-0-1 3.66	1-1-0 3.22	1-1-0 1.74	1-0-1 3.58	—	0-1-1 3.91	1-0-1 3.92	1-1-0 4.13	1-0-1 3.64
Magyar AC	2-0-0 3.39	0-1-1 3.07	1-0-1 2.24	0-0-2 1.10	1-1-0 2.82	1-1-0 1.77	—	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 3.13	1-0-1 2.39
Nemzeti SC	2-0-0 2.97	2-0-0 2.80	0-1-1 2.07	0-0-2 1.23	1-0-1 2.39	1-0-1 1.76	1-0-1 2.98	—	0-0-2 3.10	0-1-1 2.75
Terezvarosi TC	1-1-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.61	1-0-1 1.99	0-1-1 0.83	0-0-2 2.27	0-1-1 1.55	1-0-1 2.54	2-0-0 2.57	—	1-0-1 2.39
Torekves SC	0-0-2 3.63	1-0-1 3.14	0-1-1 2.62	0-0-2 1.32	2-0-0 2.78	1-0-1 2.03	1-0-1 3.28	1-1-0 2.92	1-0-1 3.29	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.89	+3.1
Allowed	0.47	-3.8
Differential	0.87	+2.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	8.89%	4.44%	2.22%	2.22%	2.22%	23.33%
1	8.89%	5.56%	6.67%	3.33%	2.22%	3.33%	30.00%
2	4.44%	6.67%	5.56%	1.67%	0.56%	2.78%	21.67%
3	2.22%	3.33%	1.67%	—	0.56%	1.11%	8.89%
4	2.22%	2.22%	0.56%	0.56%	1.11%	—	6.67%
5+	2.22%	3.33%	2.78%	1.11%	—	—	9.44%
Total	23.33%	30.00%	21.67%	8.89%	6.67%	9.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	1.83	+0.00
SD	1.83	1.83	2.69
CV	1.00	1.00	—
Max	11	11	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	50.00%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.89	1.89	-1.00
SD	1.13	1.60	2.28
CV	1.27	0.85	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	38.89%	11.11%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.67	-0.06
SD	1.54	1.24	1.86
CV	0.96	0.74	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	38.89%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	2.00	+0.00
SD	1.24	1.46	1.85
CV	0.62	0.73	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	50.00%
Total	44.44%	33.33%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	4.11	0.94	+3.17
SD	3.10	1.11	2.83
CV	0.75	1.18	—
Max	11	3	+8
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	50.00%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	2.50	-1.11
SD	1.38	2.48	2.56
CV	0.99	0.99	—
Max	5	11	+4
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	38.89%	27.78%	22.22%	—	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	1.22	+0.89
SD	1.91	1.44	2.45
CV	0.90	1.18	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	50.00%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.06	2.17	-0.11
SD	1.59	2.31	2.95
CV	0.77	1.06	—
Max	6	9	+4
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	27.78%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	2.17	-0.72
SD	1.38	2.04	2.80
CV	0.96	0.94	—
Max	5	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
1	16.67%	—	—	—	—	11.11%	27.78%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	33.33%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	—	11.11%	27.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	2.39	-1.06
SD	1.14	2.40	2.67
CV	0.85	1.01	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	44.44%	16.67%	11.11%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.39	+0.00
SD	1.24	1.29	2.09
CV	0.90	0.93	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Ferencvaros	1555	30	27.92	+2.08	85.0%	21	23	26	28	30	32	34
MTK Budapest	1314	22	22.32	-0.32	50.0%	13	17	21	22	24	26	31
Budapesti AK	1199	20	19.57	+0.43	60.0%	13	14	17	20	21	25	27
Torekves SC	1188	16	17.68	-1.68	35.0%	9	13	16	17	20	22	25
Magyar AC	1179	19	15.97	+3.03	86.0%	8	10	14	16	18	21	24
Budapest TC	1164	15	16.03	-1.03	40.0%	8	10	14	16	18	20	23
III. Kerulet	1101	12	17.26	-5.26	4.0%	11	13	15	17	19	22	25
Terezvarosi TC	1097	17	13.93	+3.07	86.0%	7	9	12	14	16	19	21
Nemzeti SC	1037	16	15.59	+0.41	62.0%	5	10	14	16	18	20	22
33FC	1030	13	13.73	-0.73	52.0%	6	9	12	13	15	19	22

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+33.33%

Strong Edge

58.89%15.56%25.56%

Elo Value

Home Edge

141 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0120.41400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.62 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.85+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.2

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

90%

Ferencvaros, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.44/gm

Runaway

00.270.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.46 * Some Luck: 2.46 to 3.68 * Lucky: 3.68 to 4.91 * Wild Swing: 4.91 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.26 * Close: 1.26 to 1.88 * Off: 1.88 to 2.51 * Way Off: 2.51 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.36 points

As Expected

03.078

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.80

01.574

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

86.00%

Magyar AC

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

4.00%

III. Kerulet

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.14

Balanced

00.150.210.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 154.66

1.34

Coin-Flip Parity

11.61.852.152.75

Interquartile Edge

64%

Even

50%65.5%75.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

95%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

51%

Some Drama

0%42%100%

Blowouts

Expected

31%

Very Frequent

0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.52

Highly Predictable

00.502

Matchup Imbalance

0.52

Notable Separation

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.59

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.49

Some Carryover

00.450.590.721

Upset Rate

Expected

21%

Upset-Prone

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Shaky Favorites

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.

Probability calibration

0.56

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.80

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.076

Well Within Noise

00.1550.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Ferencvaros	90.00%	8.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MTK Budapest	7.00%	60.00%	17.00%	4.00%	7.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%	—
Budapesti AK	2.00%	14.00%	33.00%	20.00%	6.00%	11.00%	8.00%	3.00%	3.00%	—
Magyar AC	—	3.00%	9.00%	12.00%	13.00%	13.00%	10.00%	20.00%	12.00%	8.00%
Terezvarosi TC	—	—	—	5.00%	7.00%	9.00%	18.00%	12.00%	17.00%	32.00%
Torekves SC	1.00%	4.00%	18.00%	19.00%	17.00%	13.00%	9.00%	9.00%	4.00%	6.00%
Nemzeti SC	—	2.00%	4.00%	8.00%	15.00%	14.00%	17.00%	12.00%	20.00%	8.00%
Budapest TC	—	1.00%	4.00%	15.00%	17.00%	17.00%	16.00%	9.00%	14.00%	7.00%
33FC	—	1.00%	3.00%	—	6.00%	7.00%	10.00%	20.00%	21.00%	32.00%
III. Kerulet	—	7.00%	10.00%	17.00%	12.00%	13.00%	11.00%	15.00%	8.00%	7.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
33FC	100%
Budapest TC	100%
Budapesti AK	100%
Ferencvaros	100%
III. Kerulet	100%
MTK Budapest	100%
Magyar AC	100%
Nemzeti SC	100%
Terezvarosi TC	100%
Torekves SC	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1911-09-03	III. Kerulet	D 1-1	54.8	1143	1242	53.97%	16.49%	29.54%	+0.15	-1.5	1
1911-09-03	@ Budapest TC	D 1-1	54.8	1242	1143	29.54%	16.49%	53.97%	-0.15	+1.5	1
1911-09-03	Torekves SC	W 2-1	35.4	1413	1191	78.35%	15.53%	6.11%	+2.43	+1.8	2
1911-09-03	@ Ferencvaros	L 1-2	35.4	1191	1413	6.11%	15.53%	78.35%	-2.43	-1.8	0
1911-09-03	33FC	W 3-1	35.0	1126	1067	69.55%	16.22%	14.23%	+1.27	+7.2	2
1911-09-03	@ Magyar AC	L 1-3	35.0	1067	1126	14.23%	16.22%	69.55%	-1.27	-7.2	0
1911-09-03	MTK Budapest	W 2-1	45.3	1107	1289	42.81%	16.47%	40.72%	-0.44	+10.6	2
1911-09-03	@ Nemzeti SC	L 1-2	45.3	1289	1107	40.72%	16.47%	42.81%	+0.44	-10.6	0
1911-09-08	Terezvarosi TC	W 5-2	34.6	1212	1074	74.52%	15.94%	9.55%	+1.83	+6.0	2
1911-09-08	@ Budapesti AK	L 2-5	34.6	1074	1212	9.55%	15.94%	74.52%	-1.83	-6.1	0
1911-09-08	Budapest TC	D 1-1	54.7	1133	1141	63.90%	16.38%	19.72%	+0.80	-2.8	3
1911-09-08	@ Magyar AC	D 1-1	54.7	1141	1133	19.72%	16.38%	63.90%	-0.80	+2.8	2
1911-09-10	III. Kerulet	W 5-1	30.3	1415	1243	76.23%	15.78%	7.98%	+2.07	+7.6	4
1911-09-10	@ Ferencvaros	L 1-5	30.3	1243	1415	7.98%	15.78%	76.23%	-2.07	-7.6	1
1911-09-17	Magyar AC	W 6-1	27.1	1423	1130	80.66%	15.13%	4.20%	+2.92	+4.9	6
1911-09-17	@ Ferencvaros	L 1-6	27.1	1130	1423	4.20%	15.13%	80.66%	-2.92	-4.9	3
1911-09-17	Nemzeti SC	W 2-1	40.0	1068	1118	59.73%	16.45%	23.82%	+0.50	+6.7	2
1911-09-17	@ Terezvarosi TC	L 1-2	40.0	1118	1068	23.82%	16.45%	59.73%	-0.50	-6.7	2
1911-09-17	33FC	L 0-1	51.4	1189	1059	74.07%	15.97%	9.96%	+1.77	-19.8	0
1911-09-17	@ Torekves SC	W 1-0	51.4	1059	1189	9.96%	15.97%	74.07%	-1.77	+19.8	2
1911-09-24	Torekves SC	W 2-1	39.3	1144	1169	62.23%	16.41%	21.36%	+0.67	+6.0	4
1911-09-24	@ Budapest TC	L 1-2	39.3	1169	1144	21.36%	16.41%	62.23%	-0.67	-6.1	0
1911-09-24	Budapesti AK	D 2-2	59.0	1279	1218	69.62%	16.21%	14.17%	+1.28	-2.7	1
1911-09-24	@ MTK Budapest	D 2-2	59.0	1218	1279	14.17%	16.21%	69.62%	-1.28	+2.7	3
1911-09-24	III. Kerulet	W 2-0	36.8	1111	1235	50.70%	16.50%	32.80%	-0.03	+17.6	4
1911-09-24	@ Nemzeti SC	L 0-2	36.8	1235	1111	32.80%	16.50%	50.70%	+0.03	-17.6	1
1911-09-24	Magyar AC	W 1-0	36.5	1075	1125	59.60%	16.45%	23.95%	+0.50	+7.1	4
1911-09-24	@ Terezvarosi TC	L 0-1	36.5	1125	1075	23.95%	16.45%	59.60%	-0.50	-7.1	3
1911-10-01	33FC	W 4-0	25.0	1276	1079	77.32%	15.67%	7.01%	+2.24	+8.0	3
1911-10-01	@ MTK Budapest	L 0-4	25.0	1079	1276	7.01%	15.67%	77.32%	-2.24	-8.0	2
1911-10-01	Nemzeti SC	D 1-1	54.7	1163	1129	67.64%	16.29%	16.08%	+1.10	-3.4	1
1911-10-01	@ Torekves SC	D 1-1	54.7	1129	1163	16.08%	16.29%	67.64%	-1.10	+3.4	5
1911-10-08	Ferencvaros	W 3-2	53.7	1150	1428	29.94%	16.31%	53.75%	-1.11	+12.8	6
1911-10-08	@ Budapest TC	L 2-3	53.7	1428	1150	53.75%	16.31%	29.94%	+1.11	-12.8	6
1911-10-08	33FC	L 1-3	53.1	1218	1071	74.98%	15.90%	9.12%	+1.89	-32.7	1
1911-10-08	@ III. Kerulet	W 3-1	53.1	1071	1218	9.12%	15.90%	74.98%	-1.89	+32.7	4
1911-10-08	Magyar AC	D 1-1	55.0	1284	1118	75.92%	15.81%	8.26%	+2.03	-4.6	4
1911-10-08	@ MTK Budapest	D 1-1	55.0	1118	1284	8.26%	15.81%	75.92%	-2.03	+4.6	4
1911-10-15	Budapesti AK	D 1-1	54.7	1104	1221	51.67%	16.50%	31.83%	+0.02	-1.2	5
1911-10-15	@ 33FC	D 1-1	54.7	1221	1104	31.83%	16.50%	51.67%	-0.02	+1.2	4
1911-10-15	Ferencvaros	L 0-7	31.9	1132	1415	29.28%	16.30%	54.42%	-1.15	-51.3	5
1911-10-15	@ Nemzeti SC	W 7-0	31.9	1415	1132	54.42%	16.30%	29.28%	+1.15	+51.3	8
1911-10-15	III. Kerulet	L 0-1	45.4	1082	1185	53.46%	16.49%	30.04%	+0.12	-14.3	4
1911-10-15	@ Terezvarosi TC	W 1-0	45.4	1185	1082	30.04%	16.49%	53.46%	-0.12	+14.3	3
1911-10-15	Magyar AC	W 4-1	33.3	1160	1123	67.82%	16.28%	15.90%	+1.11	+11.3	3
1911-10-15	@ Torekves SC	L 1-4	33.3	1123	1160	15.90%	16.28%	67.82%	-1.11	-11.3	4
1911-10-22	Budapesti AK	W 4-1	31.6	1466	1222	79.13%	15.42%	5.45%	+2.58	+4.0	10
1911-10-22	@ Ferencvaros	L 1-4	31.6	1222	1466	5.45%	15.42%	79.13%	-2.58	-4.0	4
1911-10-22	Budapest TC	W 2-1	41.6	1068	1163	54.45%	16.49%	29.06%	+0.18	+7.9	6
1911-10-22	@ Terezvarosi TC	L 1-2	41.6	1163	1068	29.06%	16.49%	54.45%	-0.18	-7.9	6
1911-11-01	III. Kerulet	W 4-1	32.7	1279	1199	71.01%	16.15%	12.84%	+1.42	+9.3	6
1911-11-01	@ MTK Budapest	L 1-4	32.7	1199	1279	12.84%	16.15%	71.01%	-1.42	-9.3	3
1911-11-01	Budapesti AK	D 2-2	58.7	1171	1218	59.95%	16.45%	23.61%	+0.52	-1.7	4
1911-11-01	@ Torekves SC	D 2-2	58.7	1218	1171	23.61%	16.45%	59.95%	-0.52	+1.7	5
1911-11-12	Terezvarosi TC	D 2-2	58.6	1103	1076	67.00%	16.31%	16.69%	+1.04	-2.5	6
1911-11-12	@ 33FC	D 2-2	58.6	1076	1103	16.69%	16.31%	67.00%	-1.04	+2.4	7
1911-11-12	MTK Budapest	L 1-2	48.0	1155	1289	49.51%	16.50%	33.99%	-0.09	-12.5	6
1911-11-12	@ Budapest TC	W 2-1	48.0	1289	1155	33.99%	16.50%	49.51%	+0.09	+12.5	8
1911-11-12	Nemzeti SC	D 2-2	58.8	1220	1081	74.60%	15.93%	9.47%	+1.84	-3.3	6
1911-11-12	@ Budapesti AK	D 2-2	58.8	1081	1220	9.47%	15.93%	74.60%	-1.84	+3.2	6
1911-11-12	III. Kerulet	W 1-0	37.5	1112	1190	56.41%	16.48%	27.11%	+0.30	+7.9	6
1911-11-12	@ Magyar AC	L 0-1	37.5	1190	1112	27.11%	16.48%	56.41%	-0.30	-7.9	3
1911-11-19	33FC	W 5-0	23.3	1470	1100	82.62%	14.62%	2.76%	+3.47	+3.9	12
1911-11-19	@ Ferencvaros	L 0-5	23.3	1100	1470	2.76%	14.62%	82.62%	-3.47	-3.9	6
1911-11-19	Budapest TC	W 5-2	39.3	1084	1142	58.70%	16.46%	24.84%	+0.44	+14.7	8
1911-11-19	@ Nemzeti SC	L 2-5	39.3	1142	1084	24.84%	16.46%	58.70%	-0.44	-14.7	6
1911-11-19	Torekves SC	W 1-0	37.9	1078	1169	54.92%	16.49%	28.59%	+0.21	+8.3	9
1911-11-19	@ Terezvarosi TC	L 0-1	37.9	1169	1078	28.59%	16.49%	54.92%	-0.21	-8.3	4
1911-11-26	Nemzeti SC	L 0-3	43.9	1096	1099	64.44%	16.37%	19.18%	+0.84	-46.9	6
1911-11-26	@ 33FC	W 3-0	43.9	1099	1096	19.18%	16.37%	64.44%	-0.84	+46.9	10
1911-11-26	MTK Budapest	D 0-0	54.8	1474	1301	76.27%	15.78%	7.95%	+2.08	-5.2	13
1911-11-26	@ Ferencvaros	D 0-0	54.8	1301	1474	7.95%	15.78%	76.27%	-2.08	+5.2	9
1911-11-26	Budapesti AK	W 3-1	39.7	1119	1217	54.18%	16.49%	29.33%	+0.16	+13.9	8
1911-11-26	@ Magyar AC	L 1-3	39.7	1217	1119	29.33%	16.49%	54.18%	-0.16	-13.9	6
1911-11-26	III. Kerulet	W 2-1	39.2	1161	1182	62.63%	16.41%	20.97%	+0.70	+6.0	6
1911-11-26	@ Torekves SC	L 1-2	39.2	1182	1161	20.97%	16.41%	62.63%	-0.70	-6.0	3
1911-12-03	33FC	L 2-3	58.0	1128	1050	70.90%	16.16%	12.95%	+1.41	-16.9	6
1911-12-03	@ Budapest TC	W 3-2	58.0	1050	1128	12.95%	16.16%	70.90%	-1.41	+16.9	8
1911-12-03	III. Kerulet	W 2-1	38.0	1203	1176	66.97%	16.31%	16.72%	+1.04	+4.8	8
1911-12-03	@ Budapesti AK	L 1-2	38.0	1176	1203	16.72%	16.31%	66.97%	-1.04	-4.8	3
1911-12-03	Terezvarosi TC	W 6-0	23.1	1469	1087	82.88%	14.53%	2.58%	+3.56	+4.3	15
1911-12-03	@ Ferencvaros	L 0-6	23.1	1087	1469	2.58%	14.53%	82.88%	-3.56	-4.3	9
1911-12-03	Torekves SC	W 1-0	32.3	1306	1167	74.60%	15.93%	9.47%	+1.84	+3.0	11
1911-12-03	@ MTK Budapest	L 0-1	32.3	1167	1306	9.47%	15.93%	74.60%	-1.84	-3.0	6
1911-12-03	Magyar AC	W 3-1	36.1	1145	1133	65.73%	16.34%	17.93%	+0.94	+8.9	12
1911-12-03	@ Nemzeti SC	L 1-3	36.1	1133	1145	17.93%	16.34%	65.73%	-0.94	-8.9	8
1911-12-08	Budapest TC	W 3-2	40.4	1208	1111	72.12%	16.09%	11.79%	+1.54	+3.3	10
1911-12-08	@ Budapesti AK	L 2-3	40.4	1111	1208	11.79%	16.09%	72.12%	-1.54	-3.3	6
1911-12-08	Terezvarosi TC	W 2-0	28.5	1309	1082	78.52%	15.51%	5.97%	+2.46	+3.6	13
1911-12-08	@ MTK Budapest	L 0-2	28.5	1082	1309	5.97%	15.51%	78.52%	-2.46	-3.6	9
1912-02-02	Nemzeti SC	L 0-1	47.3	1108	1154	59.98%	16.45%	23.58%	+0.52	-15.9	6
1912-02-02	@ Budapest TC	W 1-0	47.3	1154	1108	23.58%	16.45%	59.98%	-0.52	+15.9	14
1912-02-04	Ferencvaros	L 2-9	33.1	1124	1473	21.99%	16.10%	61.91%	-1.62	-26.9	8
1912-02-04	@ Magyar AC	W 9-2	33.1	1473	1124	61.91%	16.10%	21.99%	+1.62	+26.8	17
1912-02-04	MTK Budapest	W 2-0	38.0	1164	1313	47.46%	16.49%	36.05%	-0.20	+19.1	8
1912-02-04	@ Torekves SC	L 0-2	38.0	1313	1164	36.05%	16.49%	47.46%	+0.20	-19.1	13
1912-02-18	MTK Budapest	L 0-4	34.1	1066	1294	36.46%	16.41%	47.12%	-0.76	-36.6	8
1912-02-18	@ 33FC	W 4-0	34.1	1294	1066	47.12%	16.41%	36.46%	+0.76	+36.6	15
1912-02-18	Torekves SC	W 3-1	35.9	1211	1183	67.08%	16.30%	16.62%	+1.05	+8.3	12
1912-02-18	@ Budapesti AK	L 1-3	35.9	1183	1211	16.62%	16.30%	67.08%	-1.05	-8.3	8
1912-03-03	Budapesti AK	L 1-2	48.0	1092	1219	50.29%	16.50%	33.21%	-0.05	-12.7	6
1912-03-03	@ Budapest TC	W 2-1	48.0	1219	1092	33.21%	16.50%	50.29%	+0.05	+12.7	14
1912-03-10	Magyar AC	W 1-0	32.1	1232	1098	74.34%	15.95%	9.71%	+1.80	+3.1	16
1912-03-10	@ Budapesti AK	L 0-1	32.1	1098	1232	9.71%	15.95%	74.34%	-1.80	-3.1	8
1912-03-10	MTK Budapest	W 1-0	40.9	1171	1330	46.07%	16.49%	37.44%	-0.27	+10.5	5
1912-03-10	@ III. Kerulet	L 0-1	40.9	1330	1171	37.44%	16.49%	46.07%	+0.27	-10.5	15
1912-03-10	33FC	W 1-0	33.7	1079	1030	68.76%	16.25%	14.99%	+1.20	+4.6	11
1912-03-10	@ Terezvarosi TC	L 0-1	33.7	1030	1079	14.99%	16.25%	68.76%	-1.20	-4.6	8
1912-03-17	Torekves SC	W 1-0	40.1	1025	1175	47.36%	16.49%	36.15%	-0.21	+10.2	10
1912-03-17	@ 33FC	L 0-1	40.1	1175	1025	36.15%	16.49%	47.36%	+0.21	-10.2	8
1912-03-17	Budapest TC	W 2-0	27.6	1500	1079	83.66%	14.25%	2.09%	+3.84	+1.2	19
1912-03-17	@ Ferencvaros	L 0-2	27.6	1079	1500	2.09%	14.25%	83.66%	-3.84	-1.2	6
1912-03-17	Nemzeti SC	W 4-3	45.6	1182	1170	65.68%	16.34%	17.97%	+0.93	+4.8	7
1912-03-17	@ III. Kerulet	L 3-4	45.6	1170	1182	17.97%	16.34%	65.68%	-0.93	-4.8	14
1912-03-17	MTK Budapest	D 4-4	65.1	1083	1320	35.22%	16.40%	48.38%	-0.82	+0.4	12
1912-03-17	@ Terezvarosi TC	D 4-4	65.1	1320	1083	48.38%	16.40%	35.22%	+0.82	-0.4	16
1912-03-24	Ferencvaros	L 3-5	48.9	1235	1501	31.35%	16.34%	52.31%	-1.03	-12.4	16
1912-03-24	@ Budapesti AK	W 5-3	48.9	1501	1235	52.31%	16.34%	31.35%	+1.03	+12.4	21
1912-03-24	Terezvarosi TC	W 5-1	30.1	1187	1084	72.50%	16.07%	11.43%	+1.58	+10.7	9
1912-03-24	@ III. Kerulet	L 1-5	30.1	1084	1187	11.43%	16.07%	72.50%	-1.58	-10.7	12
1912-03-24	Torekves SC	L 0-2	46.3	1166	1165	64.73%	16.37%	18.91%	+0.86	-32.4	14
1912-03-24	@ Nemzeti SC	W 2-0	46.3	1165	1166	18.91%	16.37%	64.73%	-0.86	+32.4	10
1912-03-25	Ferencvaros	L 0-4	26.9	1035	1514	11.78%	15.52%	72.70%	-2.53	-13.1	10
1912-03-25	@ 33FC	W 4-0	26.9	1514	1035	72.70%	15.52%	11.78%	+2.53	+13.1	23
1912-03-31	Torekves SC	L 1-2	52.4	1197	1197	64.67%	16.37%	18.96%	+0.86	-16.2	9
1912-03-31	@ III. Kerulet	W 2-1	52.4	1197	1197	18.96%	16.37%	64.67%	-0.86	+16.2	12
1912-03-31	Nemzeti SC	W 3-1	37.6	1094	1133	60.85%	16.44%	22.72%	+0.58	+11.1	10
1912-03-31	@ Magyar AC	L 1-3	37.6	1133	1094	22.72%	16.44%	60.85%	-0.58	-11.1	14
1912-03-31	Ferencvaros	W 1-0	47.3	1319	1527	39.23%	16.44%	44.32%	-0.62	+12.1	18
1912-03-31	@ MTK Budapest	L 0-1	47.3	1527	1319	44.32%	16.44%	39.23%	+0.62	-12.1	23
1912-04-07	Terezvarosi TC	L 0-3	45.2	1122	1073	68.77%	16.25%	14.98%	+1.20	-50.1	14
1912-04-07	@ Nemzeti SC	W 3-0	45.2	1073	1122	14.98%	16.25%	68.77%	-1.20	+50.1	14
1912-04-21	Budapesti AK	W 2-1	39.9	1181	1223	60.54%	16.44%	23.02%	+0.56	+6.5	11
1912-04-21	@ III. Kerulet	L 1-2	39.9	1223	1181	23.02%	16.44%	60.54%	-0.56	-6.5	16
1912-04-21	Torekves SC	W 3-0	33.9	1106	1213	52.87%	16.50%	30.63%	+0.09	+24.2	12
1912-04-21	@ Magyar AC	L 0-3	33.9	1213	1106	30.63%	16.50%	52.87%	-0.09	-24.2	12
1912-04-21	33FC	W 1-0	33.7	1072	1022	68.82%	16.25%	14.93%	+1.20	+4.6	16
1912-04-21	@ Nemzeti SC	L 0-1	33.7	1022	1072	14.93%	16.25%	68.82%	-1.20	-4.6	10
1912-04-28	Budapest TC	D 0-0	51.5	1018	1078	58.54%	16.46%	25.00%	+0.43	-2.4	11
1912-04-28	@ 33FC	D 0-0	51.5	1078	1018	25.00%	16.46%	58.54%	-0.43	+2.4	7
1912-04-28	MTK Budapest	W 5-1	40.1	1130	1331	40.01%	16.45%	43.53%	-0.58	+35.4	14
1912-04-28	@ Magyar AC	L 1-5	40.1	1331	1130	43.53%	16.45%	40.01%	+0.58	-35.4	18
1912-04-28	Budapesti AK	L 1-4	43.2	1077	1216	48.70%	16.50%	34.80%	-0.14	-30.3	16
1912-04-28	@ Nemzeti SC	W 4-1	43.2	1216	1077	34.80%	16.50%	48.70%	+0.14	+30.2	18
1912-04-28	Terezvarosi TC	W 4-0	27.2	1189	1123	70.03%	16.20%	13.77%	+1.32	+15.3	14
1912-04-28	@ Torekves SC	L 0-4	27.2	1123	1189	13.77%	16.20%	70.03%	-1.32	-15.3	14
1912-05-01	III. Kerulet	W 3-0	36.4	1015	1188	44.20%	16.48%	39.32%	-0.37	+29.9	13
1912-05-01	@ 33FC	L 0-3	36.4	1188	1015	39.32%	16.48%	44.20%	+0.37	-29.9	11
1912-05-05	Terezvarosi TC	W 6-1	32.0	1080	1108	61.96%	16.42%	21.63%	+0.66	+23.7	9
1912-05-05	@ Budapest TC	L 1-6	32.0	1108	1080	21.63%	16.42%	61.96%	-0.66	-23.7	14
1912-05-12	33FC	W 1-0	31.1	1246	1045	77.52%	15.64%	6.84%	+2.28	+2.2	20
1912-05-12	@ Budapesti AK	L 0-1	31.1	1045	1246	6.84%	15.64%	77.52%	-2.28	-2.2	13
1912-05-12	Ferencvaros	D 0-0	52.7	1084	1515	14.94%	15.76%	69.30%	-2.20	+4.0	15
1912-05-12	@ Terezvarosi TC	D 0-0	52.7	1515	1084	69.30%	15.76%	14.94%	+2.20	-4.0	24
1912-05-19	Nemzeti SC	W 6-0	23.6	1296	1046	79.33%	15.38%	5.28%	+2.62	+8.9	20
1912-05-19	@ MTK Budapest	L 0-6	23.6	1046	1296	5.28%	15.38%	79.33%	-2.62	-8.9	16
1912-05-19	Budapesti AK	W 2-0	38.2	1088	1249	45.85%	16.49%	37.66%	-0.28	+19.8	17
1912-05-19	@ Terezvarosi TC	L 0-2	38.2	1249	1088	37.66%	16.49%	45.85%	+0.28	-19.8	20
1912-05-19	Budapest TC	W 2-0	30.2	1204	1104	72.37%	16.08%	11.55%	+1.57	+6.8	16
1912-05-19	@ Torekves SC	L 0-2	30.2	1104	1204	11.55%	16.08%	72.37%	-1.57	-6.9	9
1912-05-26	Magyar AC	L 1-2	48.2	1043	1165	51.01%	16.50%	32.49%	-0.01	-12.9	13
1912-05-26	@ 33FC	W 2-1	48.2	1165	1043	32.49%	16.50%	51.01%	+0.01	+12.9	16
1912-05-30	Nemzeti SC	W 1-0	29.6	1511	1037	84.58%	13.85%	1.57%	+4.20	+0.5	26
1912-05-30	@ Ferencvaros	L 0-1	29.6	1037	1511	1.57%	13.85%	84.58%	-4.20	-0.5	16
1912-06-02	Magyar AC	W 4-2	42.8	1097	1178	56.10%	16.48%	27.41%	+0.28	+11.7	11
1912-06-02	@ Budapest TC	L 2-4	42.8	1178	1097	27.41%	16.48%	56.10%	-0.28	-11.7	16
1912-06-02	Ferencvaros	L 1-5	37.1	1211	1511	27.26%	16.25%	56.49%	-1.27	-23.7	16
1912-06-02	@ Torekves SC	W 5-1	37.1	1511	1211	56.49%	16.25%	27.26%	+1.27	+23.7	28
1912-06-06	MTK Budapest	L 2-5	49.4	1229	1305	56.70%	16.48%	26.83%	+0.31	-30.2	20
1912-06-06	@ Budapesti AK	W 5-2	49.4	1305	1229	26.83%	16.48%	56.70%	-0.31	+30.2	22
1912-06-06	Budapest TC	L 0-2	47.4	1158	1109	68.79%	16.25%	14.96%	+1.20	-34.5	11
1912-06-06	@ III. Kerulet	W 2-0	47.4	1109	1158	14.96%	16.25%	68.79%	-1.20	+34.5	13
1912-06-06	Terezvarosi TC	W 6-2	33.7	1166	1108	69.48%	16.22%	14.30%	+1.27	+11.2	18
1912-06-06	@ Magyar AC	L 2-6	33.7	1108	1166	14.30%	16.22%	69.48%	-1.27	-11.2	17
1912-06-09	Ferencvaros	L 3-11	31.8	1123	1535	16.38%	15.84%	67.78%	-2.06	-20.5	11
1912-06-09	@ III. Kerulet	W 11-3	31.8	1535	1123	67.78%	15.84%	16.38%	+2.06	+20.5	30
1912-06-09	Budapest TC	L 0-1	52.5	1335	1143	77.13%	15.69%	7.18%	+2.21	-20.6	22
1912-06-09	@ MTK Budapest	W 1-0	52.5	1143	1335	7.18%	15.69%	77.13%	-2.21	+20.6	15
1912-10-03	Magyar AC	D 2-2	58.6	1103	1178	56.86%	16.48%	26.67%	+0.32	-1.4	12
1912-10-03	@ III. Kerulet	D 2-2	58.6	1178	1103	26.67%	16.48%	56.86%	-0.32	+1.4	19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1912-06-09	7.18%	Budapest TC	1143	1	@ MTK Budapest	1335	0
2	1911-10-08	9.12%	33FC	1071	3	@ III. Kerulet	1218	1
3	1911-09-17	9.96%	33FC	1059	1	@ Torekves SC	1189	0
4	1911-12-03	12.95%	33FC	1050	3	@ Budapest TC	1128	2
5	1912-06-06	14.96%	Budapest TC	1109	2	@ III. Kerulet	1158	0
6	1912-04-07	14.98%	Terezvarosi TC	1073	3	@ Nemzeti SC	1122	0
7	1912-03-24	18.91%	Torekves SC	1165	2	@ Nemzeti SC	1166	0
8	1912-03-31	18.96%	Torekves SC	1197	2	@ III. Kerulet	1197	1
9	1911-11-26	19.18%	Nemzeti SC	1099	3	@ 33FC	1096	0
10	1912-02-02	23.58%	Nemzeti SC	1154	1	@ Budapest TC	1108	0
11	1912-06-06	26.83%	MTK Budapest	1305	5	@ Budapesti AK	1229	2
12	1911-10-08	29.94%	@ Budapest TC	1150	3	Ferencvaros	1428	2
13	1911-10-15	30.04%	III. Kerulet	1185	1	@ Terezvarosi TC	1082	0
14	1912-05-26	32.49%	Magyar AC	1165	2	@ 33FC	1043	1
15	1912-03-03	33.21%	Budapesti AK	1219	2	@ Budapest TC	1092	1
16	1911-11-12	33.99%	MTK Budapest	1289	2	@ Budapest TC	1155	1
17	1912-04-28	34.80%	Budapesti AK	1216	4	@ Nemzeti SC	1077	1
18	1912-03-31	39.23%	@ MTK Budapest	1319	1	Ferencvaros	1527	0
19	1912-04-28	40.01%	@ Magyar AC	1130	5	MTK Budapest	1331	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1911-10-15	51.27	Ferencvaros	7	1415	54.42%	@ Nemzeti SC	0	1132	29.28%	16.30%
2	1912-04-07	50.12	Terezvarosi TC	3	1073	14.98%	@ Nemzeti SC	0	1122	68.77%	16.25%
3	1911-11-26	46.88	Nemzeti SC	3	1099	19.18%	@ 33FC	0	1096	64.44%	16.37%
4	1912-02-18	36.58	MTK Budapest	4	1294	47.12%	@ 33FC	0	1066	36.46%	16.41%
5	1912-04-28	35.41	@ Magyar AC	5	1130	40.01%	MTK Budapest	1	1331	43.53%	16.45%
6	1912-06-06	34.52	Budapest TC	2	1109	14.96%	@ III. Kerulet	0	1158	68.79%	16.25%
7	1911-10-08	32.73	33FC	3	1071	9.12%	@ III. Kerulet	1	1218	74.98%	15.90%
8	1912-03-24	32.42	Torekves SC	2	1165	18.91%	@ Nemzeti SC	0	1166	64.73%	16.37%
9	1912-04-28	30.26	Budapesti AK	4	1216	34.80%	@ Nemzeti SC	1	1077	48.70%	16.50%
10	1912-06-06	30.17	MTK Budapest	5	1305	26.83%	@ Budapesti AK	2	1229	56.70%	16.48%
11	1912-05-01	29.87	@ 33FC	3	1015	44.20%	III. Kerulet	0	1188	39.32%	16.48%
12	1912-02-04	26.85	Ferencvaros	9	1473	61.91%	@ Magyar AC	2	1124	21.99%	16.10%
13	1912-04-21	24.15	@ Magyar AC	3	1106	52.87%	Torekves SC	0	1213	30.63%	16.50%
14	1912-05-05	23.70	@ Budapest TC	6	1080	61.96%	Terezvarosi TC	1	1108	21.63%	16.42%
15	1912-06-02	23.68	Ferencvaros	5	1511	56.49%	@ Torekves SC	1	1211	27.26%	16.25%
16	1912-06-09	20.64	Budapest TC	1	1143	7.18%	@ MTK Budapest	0	1335	77.13%	15.69%
17	1912-06-09	20.45	Ferencvaros	11	1535	67.78%	@ III. Kerulet	3	1123	16.38%	15.84%
18	1912-05-19	19.83	@ Terezvarosi TC	2	1088	45.85%	Budapesti AK	0	1249	37.66%	16.49%
19	1911-09-17	19.79	33FC	1	1059	9.96%	@ Torekves SC	0	1189	74.07%	15.97%
20	1912-02-04	19.11	@ Torekves SC	2	1164	47.46%	MTK Budapest	0	1313	36.05%	16.49%
21	1911-09-24	17.64	@ Nemzeti SC	2	1111	50.70%	III. Kerulet	0	1235	32.80%	16.50%
22	1911-12-03	16.90	33FC	3	1050	12.95%	@ Budapest TC	2	1128	70.90%	16.16%
23	1912-03-31	16.20	Torekves SC	2	1197	18.96%	@ III. Kerulet	1	1197	64.67%	16.37%
24	1912-02-02	15.93	Nemzeti SC	1	1154	23.58%	@ Budapest TC	0	1108	59.98%	16.45%
25	1912-04-28	15.34	@ Torekves SC	4	1189	70.03%	Terezvarosi TC	0	1123	13.77%	16.20%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1912-03-17	65.1	@ Terezvarosi TC	4	1083	35.22%	MTK Budapest	4	1320	48.38%	16.40%
2	1911-09-24	59.0	@ MTK Budapest	2	1279	69.62%	Budapesti AK	2	1218	14.17%	16.21%
3	1911-11-12	58.8	@ Budapesti AK	2	1220	74.60%	Nemzeti SC	2	1081	9.47%	15.93%
4	1911-11-01	58.7	@ Torekves SC	2	1171	59.95%	Budapesti AK	2	1218	23.61%	16.45%
5	1911-11-12	58.6	@ 33FC	2	1103	67.00%	Terezvarosi TC	2	1076	16.69%	16.31%
6	1912-10-03	58.6	@ III. Kerulet	2	1103	56.86%	Magyar AC	2	1178	26.67%	16.48%
7	1911-12-03	58.0	33FC	3	1050	12.95%	@ Budapest TC	2	1128	70.90%	16.16%
8	1911-10-08	55.0	@ MTK Budapest	1	1284	75.92%	Magyar AC	1	1118	8.26%	15.81%
9	1911-09-03	54.8	@ Budapest TC	1	1143	53.97%	III. Kerulet	1	1242	29.54%	16.49%
10	1911-11-26	54.8	@ Ferencvaros	0	1474	76.27%	MTK Budapest	0	1301	7.95%	15.78%
11	1911-09-08	54.7	@ Magyar AC	1	1133	63.90%	Budapest TC	1	1141	19.72%	16.38%
12	1911-10-01	54.7	@ Torekves SC	1	1163	67.64%	Nemzeti SC	1	1129	16.08%	16.29%
13	1911-10-15	54.7	@ 33FC	1	1104	51.67%	Budapesti AK	1	1221	31.83%	16.50%
14	1911-10-08	53.7	@ Budapest TC	3	1150	29.94%	Ferencvaros	2	1428	53.75%	16.31%
15	1911-10-08	53.1	33FC	3	1071	9.12%	@ III. Kerulet	1	1218	74.98%	15.90%
16	1912-05-12	52.7	@ Terezvarosi TC	0	1084	14.94%	Ferencvaros	0	1515	69.30%	15.76%
17	1912-06-09	52.5	Budapest TC	1	1143	7.18%	@ MTK Budapest	0	1335	77.13%	15.69%
18	1912-03-31	52.4	Torekves SC	2	1197	18.96%	@ III. Kerulet	1	1197	64.67%	16.37%
19	1912-04-28	51.5	@ 33FC	0	1018	58.54%	Budapest TC	0	1078	25.00%	16.46%
20	1911-09-17	51.4	33FC	1	1059	9.96%	@ Torekves SC	0	1189	74.07%	15.97%
21	1912-06-06	49.4	MTK Budapest	5	1305	26.83%	@ Budapesti AK	2	1229	56.70%	16.48%
22	1912-03-24	48.9	Ferencvaros	5	1501	52.31%	@ Budapesti AK	3	1235	31.35%	16.34%
23	1912-05-26	48.2	Magyar AC	2	1165	32.49%	@ 33FC	1	1043	51.01%	16.50%
24	1911-11-12	48.0	MTK Budapest	2	1289	33.99%	@ Budapest TC	1	1155	49.51%	16.50%
25	1912-03-03	48.0	Budapesti AK	2	1219	33.21%	@ Budapest TC	1	1092	50.29%	16.50%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1911-12-03	23.1	@ Ferencvaros	6	1469	82.88%	Terezvarosi TC	0	1087	2.58%	14.53%
2	1911-11-19	23.3	@ Ferencvaros	5	1470	82.62%	33FC	0	1100	2.76%	14.62%
3	1912-05-19	23.6	@ MTK Budapest	6	1296	79.33%	Nemzeti SC	0	1046	5.28%	15.38%
4	1911-10-01	25.0	@ MTK Budapest	4	1276	77.32%	33FC	0	1079	7.01%	15.67%
5	1912-03-25	26.9	Ferencvaros	4	1514	72.70%	@ 33FC	0	1035	11.78%	15.52%
6	1911-09-17	27.1	@ Ferencvaros	6	1423	80.66%	Magyar AC	1	1130	4.20%	15.13%
7	1912-04-28	27.2	@ Torekves SC	4	1189	70.03%	Terezvarosi TC	0	1123	13.77%	16.20%
8	1912-03-17	27.6	@ Ferencvaros	2	1500	83.66%	Budapest TC	0	1079	2.09%	14.25%
9	1911-12-08	28.5	@ MTK Budapest	2	1309	78.52%	Terezvarosi TC	0	1082	5.97%	15.51%
10	1912-05-30	29.6	@ Ferencvaros	1	1511	84.58%	Nemzeti SC	0	1037	1.57%	13.85%
11	1912-03-24	30.1	@ III. Kerulet	5	1187	72.50%	Terezvarosi TC	1	1084	11.43%	16.07%
12	1912-05-19	30.2	@ Torekves SC	2	1204	72.37%	Budapest TC	0	1104	11.55%	16.08%
13	1911-09-10	30.3	@ Ferencvaros	5	1415	76.23%	III. Kerulet	1	1243	7.98%	15.78%
14	1912-05-12	31.1	@ Budapesti AK	1	1246	77.52%	33FC	0	1045	6.84%	15.64%
15	1911-10-22	31.6	@ Ferencvaros	4	1466	79.13%	Budapesti AK	1	1222	5.45%	15.42%
16	1912-06-09	31.8	Ferencvaros	11	1535	67.78%	@ III. Kerulet	3	1123	16.38%	15.84%
17	1911-10-15	31.9	Ferencvaros	7	1415	54.42%	@ Nemzeti SC	0	1132	29.28%	16.30%
18	1912-05-05	32.0	@ Budapest TC	6	1080	61.96%	Terezvarosi TC	1	1108	21.63%	16.42%
19	1912-03-10	32.1	@ Budapesti AK	1	1232	74.34%	Magyar AC	0	1098	9.71%	15.95%
20	1911-12-03	32.3	@ MTK Budapest	1	1306	74.60%	Torekves SC	0	1167	9.47%	15.93%
21	1911-11-01	32.7	@ MTK Budapest	4	1279	71.01%	III. Kerulet	1	1199	12.84%	16.15%
22	1912-02-04	33.1	Ferencvaros	9	1473	61.91%	@ Magyar AC	2	1124	21.99%	16.10%
23	1911-10-15	33.3	@ Torekves SC	4	1160	67.82%	Magyar AC	1	1123	15.90%	16.28%
24	1912-03-10	33.7	@ Terezvarosi TC	1	1079	68.76%	33FC	0	1030	14.99%	16.25%
25	1912-04-21	33.7	@ Nemzeti SC	1	1072	68.82%	33FC	0	1022	14.93%	16.25%