1912-13 I. Osztály Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Ferencvaros

33 points · 8th Title

Last Title: 1911-12

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Magyar AC

3.81 points above expected

24 points · 20.19 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Terezvarosi TC

7.51 points below expected

4 points · 11.51 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Ferencvaros Champion	18	16	1	1	33	77	13	+64	30.70	+2.30
2	MTK Budapest	18	12	2	4	26	50	18	+32	23.75	+2.25
3	Magyar AC	18	12	0	6	24	39	24	+15	20.19	+3.81
4	Budapest TC	18	10	4	4	24	27	13	+14	20.36	+3.64
5	33FC	18	8	3	7	19	35	33	+2	16.44	+2.56
6	Budapesti AK	18	7	4	7	18	32	39	-7	18.89	-0.89
7	Torekves SC	18	5	4	9	14	25	45	-20	16.21	-2.21
8	Ujpest	18	4	4	10	12	24	40	-16	12.44	-0.44
9	Nemzeti SC	18	2	2	14	6	19	68	-49	9.51	-3.51
10	Terezvarosi TC	18	1	2	15	4	22	57	-35	11.51	-7.51

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Magyar AC	24	20.19	+3.81
2	Budapest TC	24	20.36	+3.64
3	33FC	19	16.44	+2.56
4	Ferencvaros	33	30.70	+2.30
5	MTK Budapest	26	23.75	+2.25

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Terezvarosi TC	4	11.51	-7.51
2	Nemzeti SC	6	9.51	-3.51
3	Torekves SC	14	16.21	-2.21
4	Budapesti AK	18	18.89	-0.89
5	Ujpest	12	12.44	-0.44

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Ferencvaros	13	Nov 1 – Jun 15	1 in 31
2	Budapest TC	4	May 1 – Jun 19	1 in 28
3	Magyar AC	6	Mar 23 – Jun 15	1 in 16
4	Torekves SC	2	Apr 6 – Apr 20	1 in 14
5	33FC	2	Nov 17 – Nov 24	1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Terezvarosi TC	7	Sep 8 – Nov 10	1 in 66
2	Torekves SC	4	Nov 10 – Dec 8	1 in 20
3	Budapest TC	2	Mar 30 – Apr 6	1 in 17
4	Nemzeti SC	5	Nov 24 – Mar 9	1 in 11
5	Ujpest	4	Nov 17 – Dec 15	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	33FC	6	Oct 20 – Dec 8	1 in 37
2	Nemzeti SC	2	Mar 22 – May 4	1 in 14
3	Budapest TC	5	Apr 20 – Jun 19	1 in 11
4	Ujpest	3	Mar 30 – May 1	1 in 9
5	Torekves SC	3	Apr 6 – May 1	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Budapesti AK	5	Mar 9 – May 4	1 in 41
2	Terezvarosi TC	10	Dec 15 – Jun 15	1 in 24
3	Budapest TC	3	Mar 30 – Apr 20	1 in 11
4	Ujpest	8	Mar 9 – Jun 15	1 in 9
5	Torekves SC	4	Nov 10 – Dec 8	1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Ferencvaros	1861	29	+23	8	8.2	-0.2
MTK Budapest	1685	26	+38	8	7.8	+0.2
Magyar AC	1624	24	+72	10	7.1	+2.9
Budapest TC	1615	24	+84	9	5.8	+3.2
33FC	1444	19	-29	4	5.5	-1.5
Budapesti AK	1417	18	-11	5	4.6	+0.4
Torekves SC	1388	14	+41	7	4.9	+2.1
Ujpest	1296	12	-41	3	3.7	-0.7
Nemzeti SC	1161	6	+23	2	1.7	+0.3
Terezvarosi TC	1213	4	-95	0	2.5	-2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	33F	BT	BA	FER	MB	MA	NS	TT	TS	UJP
33FC	—	0-1-1 1.93	1-1-0 2.52	0-0-2 0.75	0-0-2 1.69	0-0-2 2.07	2-0-0 4.16	2-0-0 3.31	1-1-0 3.54	2-0-0 3.10
Budapest TC	1-1-0 3.76	—	1-1-0 3.31	1-0-1 1.10	1-1-0 1.98	1-0-1 3.01	2-0-0 4.39	2-0-0 4.05	0-1-1 3.43	1-0-1 4.09
Budapesti AK	0-1-1 3.17	0-1-1 2.37	—	0-0-2 1.00	2-0-0 1.40	1-0-1 2.37	1-0-1 4.27	2-0-0 3.94	1-0-1 3.89	0-2-0 3.71
Ferencvaros	2-0-0 4.95	1-0-1 4.60	2-0-0 4.69	—	1-1-0 4.07	2-0-0 4.49	2-0-0 5.10	2-0-0 5.15	2-0-0 5.02	2-0-0 5.24
MTK Budapest	2-0-0 4.00	0-1-1 3.71	0-0-2 4.29	0-1-1 1.62	—	2-0-0 3.42	2-0-0 4.61	2-0-0 4.86	2-0-0 4.24	2-0-0 4.52
Magyar AC	2-0-0 3.62	1-0-1 2.68	1-0-1 3.32	0-0-2 1.20	0-0-2 2.27	—	2-0-0 4.74	2-0-0 3.74	2-0-0 3.48	2-0-0 4.36
Nemzeti SC	0-0-2 1.53	0-0-2 1.31	1-0-1 1.43	0-0-2 0.61	0-0-2 1.09	0-0-2 0.96	—	1-1-0 2.13	0-1-1 1.49	0-0-2 2.41
Terezvarosi TC	0-0-2 2.38	0-0-2 1.64	0-0-2 1.75	0-0-2 0.56	0-0-2 0.84	0-0-2 1.95	0-1-1 3.56	—	0-0-2 2.13	1-1-0 2.31
Torekves SC	0-1-1 2.15	1-1-0 2.26	1-0-1 1.79	0-0-2 0.68	0-0-2 1.45	0-0-2 2.21	1-1-0 4.20	2-0-0 3.56	—	0-1-1 3.38
Ujpest	0-0-2 2.58	1-0-1 1.60	0-2-0 1.98	0-0-2 0.47	0-0-2 1.18	0-0-2 1.33	2-0-0 3.28	0-1-1 3.37	1-1-0 2.31	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.71	+4.4
Allowed	0.89	-4.7
Differential	0.94	+2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.44%	6.11%	2.78%	3.33%	1.67%	4.44%	22.78%
1	6.11%	1.11%	4.44%	5.00%	6.11%	2.22%	25.00%
2	2.78%	4.44%	6.67%	2.22%	2.22%	0.56%	18.89%
3	3.33%	5.00%	2.22%	2.22%	—	0.56%	13.33%
4	1.67%	6.11%	2.22%	—	—	—	10.00%
5+	4.44%	2.22%	0.56%	0.56%	—	2.22%	10.00%
Total	22.78%	25.00%	18.89%	13.33%	10.00%	10.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.92	1.92	+0.00
SD	1.98	1.98	3.13
CV	1.03	1.03	—
Max	13	13	+12
Min	-1	-1	-12

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	27.78%
2	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	38.89%	22.22%	11.11%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	1.83	+0.11
SD	1.21	1.29	1.94
CV	0.62	0.71	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	50.00%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	0.72	+0.78
SD	1.42	0.89	1.48
CV	0.95	1.24	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
1	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	11.11%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	2.17	-0.39
SD	1.59	1.86	2.70
CV	0.90	0.86	—
Max	6	7	+5
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	22.22%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	22.22%	16.67%	—	—	—	11.11%	50.00%
Total	22.22%	61.11%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	4.17	0.61	+3.56
SD	3.49	0.78	3.45
CV	0.84	1.27	—
Max	13	2	+12
Min	-1	-1	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	44.44%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.78	1.00	+1.78
SD	1.99	1.14	2.69
CV	0.72	1.14	—
Max	8	3	+8
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
1	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
3	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	1.28	+0.83
SD	1.88	1.87	2.68
CV	0.89	1.47	—
Max	5	7	+4
Min	-1	-1	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	16.67%	44.44%
1	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	11.11%	27.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	3.78	-2.72
SD	1.11	2.96	3.34
CV	1.05	0.78	—
Max	3	13	+2
Min	0	1	-12

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	—	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	61.11%
2	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	—	33.33%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	3.17	-1.94
SD	1.11	1.76	2.60
CV	0.91	0.55	—
Max	5	8	+5
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
1	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	2.50	-1.11
SD	1.33	2.07	2.54
CV	0.96	0.83	—
Max	5	7	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
1	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	22.22%
2	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	2.17	-0.89
SD	1.71	1.82	2.65
CV	1.34	0.84	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	-1	-1	-5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Ferencvaros	1861	33	30.70	+2.30	85.0%	23	26	29	31	33	35	36
MTK Budapest	1685	26	23.75	+2.25	79.0%	11	19	21	24	26	29	31
Magyar AC	1624	24	20.19	+3.81	87.0%	11	13	18	20	23	26	29
Budapest TC	1615	24	20.36	+3.64	85.0%	11	14	17	20	23	27	30
33FC	1444	19	16.44	+2.56	82.0%	8	10	14	17	19	22	25
Budapesti AK	1417	18	18.89	-0.89	50.0%	11	13	16	18	21	25	30
Torekves SC	1388	14	16.21	-2.21	28.0%	8	10	14	16	18	22	29
Ujpest	1296	12	12.44	-0.44	49.0%	5	7	11	13	15	17	19
Terezvarosi TC	1213	4	11.51	-7.51	0.0%	5	6	9	11	14	17	20
Nemzeti SC	1161	6	9.51	-3.51	15.0%	4	5	7	9	11	14	16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+10.00%

No Edge

47.78%14.44%37.78%

Elo Value

Home Edge

119 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

042.68300

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.47 goals

Neutral

-2+0.36+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.2

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

92%

Ferencvaros, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.39/gm

Runaway

00.320.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.65 * Some Luck: 2.65 to 3.98 * Lucky: 3.98 to 5.31 * Wild Swing: 5.31 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.87 * Close: 0.87 to 1.31 * Off: 1.31 to 1.75 * Way Off: 1.75 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.45 points

Some Luck

03.328

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.60

Pinpoint

01.092.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

87.00%

Magyar AC

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

0.00%

Terezvarosi TC

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.27

Lopsided

00.150.210.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 222.63

2.33

Wide Separation

11.61.852.152.75

Interquartile Edge

85%

Wide Edge

50%65.5%75.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 99%

98%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

42%

Few

0%37%100%

Blowouts

Expected

37%

Very Frequent

0%43%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.45

Highly Predictable

00.512

Matchup Imbalance

0.48

Notable Separation

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.08

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.64

Strong Carryover

00.450.590.721

Upset Rate

Expected

16%

Chalky

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

10%

Solid Favorites

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.

Probability calibration

0.01

Miscalibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.27

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.113

Well Within Noise

00.1620.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Ferencvaros	92.00%	8.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MTK Budapest	6.00%	51.00%	25.00%	12.00%	5.00%	—	—	1.00%	—	—
Magyar AC	—	17.00%	25.00%	19.00%	18.00%	12.00%	3.00%	4.00%	2.00%	—
Budapest TC	1.00%	18.00%	22.00%	21.00%	21.00%	6.00%	7.00%	1.00%	3.00%	—
33FC	—	—	8.00%	15.00%	20.00%	19.00%	17.00%	12.00%	9.00%	—
Budapesti AK	1.00%	4.00%	15.00%	20.00%	22.00%	23.00%	9.00%	6.00%	—	—
Torekves SC	—	2.00%	4.00%	9.00%	11.00%	23.00%	33.00%	10.00%	5.00%	3.00%
Ujpest	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	11.00%	17.00%	35.00%	17.00%	17.00%
Nemzeti SC	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	6.00%	7.00%	35.00%	51.00%
Terezvarosi TC	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	1.00%	5.00%	8.00%	24.00%	29.00%	29.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
33FC	100%
Budapest TC	100%
Budapesti AK	100%
Ferencvaros	100%
MTK Budapest	100%
Magyar AC	100%
Nemzeti SC	100%
Terezvarosi TC	100%
Torekves SC	100%
Ujpest	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1912-09-01	Nemzeti SC	W 13-1	39.7	1705	1378	78.04%	15.07%	6.89%	+3.11	+28.8	2
1912-09-01	@ Ferencvaros	L 1-13	39.7	1378	1705	6.89%	15.07%	78.04%	-3.11	-28.8	0
1912-09-08	Magyar AC	W 1-0	46.0	1478	1467	52.56%	15.66%	31.79%	+0.45	+14.3	2
1912-09-08	@ Budapesti AK	L 0-1	46.0	1467	1478	31.79%	15.66%	52.56%	-0.45	-14.3	0
1912-09-08	Terezvarosi TC	W 3-1	47.6	1734	1404	78.14%	15.07%	6.79%	+3.13	+5.6	4
1912-09-08	@ Ferencvaros	L 1-3	47.6	1404	1734	6.79%	15.07%	78.14%	-3.13	-5.6	0
1912-09-08	MTK Budapest	L 0-2	40.6	1349	1558	23.94%	15.55%	60.51%	-1.40	-21.0	0
1912-09-08	@ Nemzeti SC	W 2-0	40.6	1558	1349	60.51%	15.55%	23.94%	+1.40	+21.0	2
1912-09-08	Budapest TC	D 0-0	59.4	1486	1475	52.65%	15.66%	31.70%	+0.45	-2.3	1
1912-09-08	@ Torekves SC	D 0-0	59.4	1475	1486	31.70%	15.66%	52.65%	-0.45	+2.3	1
1912-09-15	Terezvarosi TC	W 2-1	44.9	1478	1399	60.65%	15.60%	23.75%	+1.02	+10.4	3
1912-09-15	@ Budapest TC	L 1-2	44.9	1399	1478	23.75%	15.60%	60.65%	-1.02	-10.4	0
1912-09-15	Torekves SC	W 4-1	48.5	1579	1484	62.30%	15.58%	22.12%	+1.16	+24.0	4
1912-09-15	@ MTK Budapest	L 1-4	48.5	1484	1579	22.12%	15.58%	62.30%	-1.16	-24.0	1
1912-09-15	Budapesti AK	L 2-3	49.3	1328	1492	29.02%	15.61%	55.37%	-1.02	-11.8	0
1912-09-15	@ Nemzeti SC	W 3-2	49.3	1492	1328	55.37%	15.61%	29.02%	+1.02	+11.8	4
1912-09-22	Magyar AC	L 1-3	48.3	1388	1453	42.26%	15.67%	42.07%	-0.19	-29.8	0
1912-09-22	@ Terezvarosi TC	W 3-1	48.3	1453	1388	42.07%	15.67%	42.26%	+0.19	+29.8	2
1912-09-29	Budapest TC	L 0-3	37.4	1317	1488	28.10%	15.60%	56.30%	-1.08	-35.2	0
1912-09-29	@ Nemzeti SC	W 3-0	37.4	1488	1317	56.30%	15.60%	28.10%	+1.08	+35.2	5
1912-09-29	Budapesti AK	D 3-3	67.8	1375	1504	33.42%	15.64%	50.94%	-0.73	+1.1	1
1912-09-29	@ Ujpest	D 3-3	67.8	1504	1375	50.94%	15.64%	33.42%	+0.73	-1.0	5
1912-10-06	Budapesti AK	W 4-1	50.0	1739	1503	73.60%	15.33%	11.07%	+2.35	+12.6	6
1912-10-06	@ Ferencvaros	L 1-4	50.0	1503	1739	11.07%	15.33%	73.60%	-2.35	-12.6	5
1912-10-06	33FC	W 2-1	44.8	1603	1377	72.98%	15.35%	11.67%	+2.26	+5.4	6
1912-10-06	@ MTK Budapest	L 1-2	44.8	1377	1603	11.67%	15.35%	72.98%	-2.26	-5.4	0
1912-10-13	33FC	W 4-1	40.7	1483	1371	63.99%	15.56%	20.45%	+1.30	+22.3	4
1912-10-13	@ Magyar AC	L 1-4	40.7	1371	1483	20.45%	15.56%	63.99%	-1.30	-22.3	0
1912-10-13	Ferencvaros	D 2-2	76.6	1608	1752	31.51%	15.62%	52.86%	-0.85	+1.5	7
1912-10-13	@ MTK Budapest	D 2-2	76.6	1752	1608	52.86%	15.62%	31.51%	+0.85	-1.6	7
1912-10-13	Nemzeti SC	D 2-2	60.5	1460	1281	69.74%	15.45%	14.81%	+1.87	-4.2	2
1912-10-13	@ Torekves SC	D 2-2	60.5	1281	1460	14.81%	15.45%	69.74%	-1.87	+4.2	1
1912-10-13	Budapest TC	W 1-0	50.9	1376	1523	31.08%	15.62%	53.29%	-0.88	+22.4	3
1912-10-13	@ Ujpest	L 0-1	50.9	1523	1376	53.29%	15.62%	31.08%	+0.88	-22.4	5
1912-10-20	Terezvarosi TC	W 3-2	48.8	1349	1358	49.96%	15.66%	34.38%	+0.28	+13.7	2
1912-10-20	@ 33FC	L 2-3	48.8	1358	1349	34.38%	15.66%	49.96%	-0.28	-13.7	0
1912-10-20	Budapesti AK	W 2-0	46.0	1501	1490	52.57%	15.66%	31.78%	+0.45	+27.0	7
1912-10-20	@ Budapest TC	L 0-2	46.0	1490	1501	31.78%	15.66%	52.57%	-0.45	-27.0	5
1912-10-20	MTK Budapest	L 0-3	42.6	1399	1610	23.65%	15.55%	60.81%	-1.42	-30.1	3
1912-10-20	@ Ujpest	W 3-0	42.6	1610	1399	60.81%	15.55%	23.65%	+1.42	+30.2	9
1912-10-27	33FC	D 0-0	56.9	1528	1363	68.69%	15.48%	15.84%	+1.75	-6.1	8
1912-10-27	@ Budapest TC	D 0-0	56.9	1363	1528	15.84%	15.48%	68.69%	-1.75	+6.1	3
1912-10-27	MTK Budapest	W 1-0	59.3	1463	1640	27.50%	15.59%	56.91%	-1.13	+23.9	7
1912-10-27	@ Budapesti AK	L 0-1	59.3	1640	1463	56.91%	15.59%	27.50%	+1.13	-23.9	9
1912-10-27	Torekves SC	L 1-2	46.6	1345	1456	35.78%	15.65%	48.57%	-0.58	-14.9	0
1912-10-27	@ Terezvarosi TC	W 2-1	46.6	1456	1345	48.57%	15.65%	35.78%	+0.58	+14.9	4
1912-10-27	Nemzeti SC	W 4-1	38.0	1368	1286	61.06%	15.60%	23.34%	+1.06	+25.1	5
1912-10-27	@ Ujpest	L 1-4	38.0	1286	1368	23.34%	15.60%	61.06%	-1.06	-25.2	1
1912-11-01	Ferencvaros	FL	66.7	1505	1750	20.26%	15.49%	64.25%	-1.70	+0.0	4
1912-11-01	@ Magyar AC	FW	66.7	1750	1505	64.25%	15.49%	20.26%	+1.70	+0.0	9
1912-11-01	Terezvarosi TC	W 6-1	36.1	1487	1330	68.07%	15.49%	16.44%	+1.69	+28.9	9
1912-11-01	@ Budapesti AK	L 1-6	36.1	1330	1487	16.44%	15.49%	68.07%	-1.69	-28.9	0
1912-11-10	Magyar AC	W 4-2	55.4	1522	1505	53.32%	15.65%	31.03%	+0.50	+20.5	10
1912-11-10	@ Budapest TC	L 2-4	55.4	1505	1522	31.03%	15.65%	53.32%	-0.50	-20.5	4
1912-11-10	Terezvarosi TC	W 2-1	44.5	1261	1301	45.74%	15.67%	38.60%	+0.02	+15.9	3
1912-11-10	@ Nemzeti SC	L 1-2	44.5	1301	1261	38.60%	15.67%	45.74%	-0.02	-15.9	0
1912-11-10	Torekves SC	W 4-2	53.5	1394	1471	40.49%	15.66%	43.85%	-0.29	+27.5	7
1912-11-10	@ Ujpest	L 2-4	53.5	1471	1394	43.85%	15.66%	40.49%	+0.29	-27.5	4
1912-11-17	Ujpest	W 4-1	45.1	1369	1421	44.05%	15.67%	40.28%	-0.08	+40.5	5
1912-11-17	@ 33FC	L 1-4	45.1	1421	1369	40.28%	15.67%	44.05%	+0.08	-40.5	7
1912-11-17	Magyar AC	W 7-0	43.3	1750	1485	75.23%	15.25%	9.52%	+2.60	+28.6	11
1912-11-17	@ Ferencvaros	L 0-7	43.3	1485	1750	9.52%	15.25%	75.23%	-2.60	-28.6	4
1912-11-24	Budapest TC	W 3-1	52.5	1779	1542	73.63%	15.32%	11.04%	+2.35	+8.9	13
1912-11-24	@ Ferencvaros	L 1-3	52.5	1542	1779	11.04%	15.32%	73.63%	-2.35	-8.9	10
1912-11-24	33FC	L 1-3	42.5	1277	1409	32.91%	15.63%	51.46%	-0.76	-24.1	3
1912-11-24	@ Nemzeti SC	W 3-1	42.5	1409	1277	51.46%	15.63%	32.91%	+0.76	+24.1	7
1912-11-24	Ujpest	W 5-0	39.0	1285	1381	37.90%	15.66%	46.44%	-0.45	+87.3	2
1912-11-24	@ Terezvarosi TC	L 0-5	39.0	1381	1285	46.44%	15.66%	37.90%	+0.45	-87.3	7
1912-11-24	Magyar AC	L 0-4	45.4	1443	1456	49.51%	15.67%	34.83%	+0.25	-75.0	4
1912-11-24	@ Torekves SC	W 4-0	45.4	1456	1443	34.83%	15.67%	49.51%	-0.25	+75.0	6
1912-12-01	Budapesti AK	D 2-2	66.0	1433	1516	39.71%	15.66%	44.62%	-0.34	+0.3	8
1912-12-01	@ 33FC	D 2-2	66.0	1516	1433	44.62%	15.66%	39.71%	+0.34	-0.3	10
1912-12-01	Torekves SC	W 6-0	39.7	1788	1368	81.07%	14.75%	4.17%	+3.89	+11.0	15
1912-12-01	@ Ferencvaros	L 0-6	39.7	1368	1788	4.17%	14.75%	81.07%	-3.89	-11.0	4
1912-12-01	MTK Budapest	L 0-1	55.4	1531	1616	39.43%	15.66%	44.91%	-0.35	-17.2	6
1912-12-01	@ Magyar AC	W 1-0	55.4	1616	1531	44.91%	15.66%	39.43%	+0.35	+17.2	11
1912-12-08	Ujpest	W 5-1	42.0	1799	1293	83.00%	14.40%	2.60%	+4.62	+3.9	17
1912-12-08	@ Ferencvaros	L 1-5	42.0	1293	1799	2.60%	14.40%	83.00%	-4.62	-3.9	7
1912-12-08	Budapest TC	D 1-1	69.3	1633	1533	62.84%	15.58%	21.58%	+1.20	-4.2	12
1912-12-08	@ MTK Budapest	D 1-1	69.3	1533	1633	21.58%	15.58%	62.84%	-1.20	+4.2	11
1912-12-08	Magyar AC	L 2-4	43.6	1252	1514	18.74%	15.46%	65.80%	-1.84	-13.0	3
1912-12-08	@ Nemzeti SC	W 4-2	43.6	1514	1252	65.80%	15.46%	18.74%	+1.84	+13.0	8
1912-12-08	33FC	L 1-2	47.8	1357	1434	40.60%	15.66%	43.74%	-0.28	-16.6	4
1912-12-08	@ Torekves SC	W 2-1	47.8	1434	1357	43.74%	15.66%	40.60%	+0.28	+16.6	10
1912-12-15	33FC	W 3-1	49.9	1803	1450	79.01%	14.99%	6.00%	+3.33	+4.9	19
1912-12-15	@ Ferencvaros	L 1-3	49.9	1450	1803	6.00%	14.99%	79.01%	-3.33	-4.9	10
1912-12-15	Terezvarosi TC	W 8-0	36.7	1629	1372	74.76%	15.27%	9.96%	+2.52	+34.0	14
1912-12-15	@ MTK Budapest	L 0-8	36.7	1372	1629	9.96%	15.27%	74.76%	-2.52	-34.0	2
1912-12-15	Budapesti AK	W 5-2	55.3	1341	1516	27.66%	15.59%	56.75%	-1.12	+47.6	6
1912-12-15	@ Torekves SC	L 2-5	55.3	1516	1341	56.75%	15.59%	27.66%	+1.12	-47.6	10
1912-12-15	Magyar AC	L 0-3	35.5	1289	1527	20.96%	15.50%	63.54%	-1.64	-27.0	7
1912-12-15	@ Ujpest	W 3-0	35.5	1527	1289	63.54%	15.50%	20.96%	+1.64	+27.0	10
1913-02-16	MTK Budapest	W 3-1	62.5	1537	1663	33.85%	15.64%	50.51%	-0.70	+34.9	13
1913-02-16	@ Budapest TC	L 1-3	62.5	1663	1537	50.51%	15.64%	33.85%	+0.70	-34.9	14
1913-02-16	Ferencvaros	L 1-7	44.9	1388	1808	8.46%	15.06%	76.48%	-3.17	-18.2	6
1913-02-16	@ Torekves SC	W 7-1	44.9	1808	1388	76.48%	15.06%	8.46%	+3.17	+18.2	21
1913-02-23	Terezvarosi TC	W 4-1	39.4	1554	1338	72.33%	15.37%	12.30%	+2.18	+13.9	12
1913-02-23	@ Magyar AC	L 1-4	39.4	1338	1554	12.30%	15.37%	72.33%	-2.18	-13.9	2
1913-02-23	Ferencvaros	L 0-8	36.8	1239	1826	3.45%	14.43%	82.13%	-4.58	-11.9	3
1913-02-23	@ Nemzeti SC	W 8-0	36.8	1826	1239	82.13%	14.43%	3.45%	+4.58	+11.9	23
1913-03-02	Torekves SC	W 2-0	37.9	1468	1370	62.65%	15.58%	21.77%	+1.19	+19.3	12
1913-03-02	@ Budapesti AK	L 0-2	37.9	1370	1468	21.77%	15.58%	62.65%	-1.19	-19.3	6
1913-03-02	Magyar AC	W 2-0	50.8	1628	1568	58.58%	15.62%	25.80%	+0.87	+22.5	16
1913-03-02	@ MTK Budapest	L 0-2	50.8	1568	1628	25.80%	15.62%	58.58%	-0.87	-22.5	12
1913-03-02	Ujpest	L 0-5	38.0	1228	1262	46.50%	15.67%	37.83%	+0.07	-87.4	3
1913-03-02	@ Nemzeti SC	W 5-0	38.0	1262	1228	37.83%	15.67%	46.50%	-0.07	+87.4	9
1913-03-02	33FC	L 1-2	45.5	1324	1445	34.45%	15.64%	49.90%	-0.66	-14.5	2
1913-03-02	@ Terezvarosi TC	W 2-1	45.5	1445	1324	49.90%	15.64%	34.45%	+0.66	+14.5	12
1913-03-09	Torekves SC	D 3-3	65.9	1460	1351	63.75%	15.57%	20.69%	+1.28	-2.7	13
1913-03-09	@ 33FC	D 3-3	65.9	1351	1460	20.69%	15.57%	63.75%	-1.28	+2.7	7
1913-03-09	Ujpest	W 1-0	39.2	1572	1350	72.76%	15.36%	11.88%	+2.23	+5.8	15
1913-03-09	@ Budapest TC	L 0-1	39.2	1350	1572	11.88%	15.36%	72.76%	-2.23	-5.8	9
1913-03-09	Ferencvaros	L 0-7	45.4	1487	1838	12.10%	15.26%	72.64%	-2.59	-35.9	12
1913-03-09	@ Budapesti AK	W 7-0	45.4	1838	1487	72.64%	15.26%	12.10%	+2.59	+35.9	25
1913-03-09	Nemzeti SC	W 6-0	27.2	1650	1140	83.09%	14.38%	2.53%	+4.66	+6.7	18
1913-03-09	@ MTK Budapest	L 0-6	27.2	1140	1650	2.53%	14.38%	83.09%	-4.66	-6.7	3
1913-03-16	MTK Budapest	W 3-1	54.2	1874	1657	72.37%	15.37%	12.25%	+2.18	+9.8	27
1913-03-16	@ Ferencvaros	L 1-3	54.2	1657	1874	12.25%	15.37%	72.37%	-2.18	-9.8	18
1913-03-22	Nemzeti SC	D 2-2	58.2	1310	1133	69.58%	15.46%	14.96%	+1.85	-4.2	3
1913-03-22	@ Terezvarosi TC	D 2-2	58.2	1133	1310	14.96%	15.46%	69.58%	-1.85	+4.2	4
1913-03-23	Ujpest	W 1-0	38.5	1545	1344	71.39%	15.40%	13.21%	+2.06	+6.5	14
1913-03-23	@ Magyar AC	L 0-1	38.5	1344	1545	13.21%	15.40%	71.39%	-2.06	-6.5	9
1913-03-24	33FC	L 1-2	54.0	1451	1457	50.46%	15.66%	33.87%	+0.31	-20.1	12
1913-03-24	@ Budapesti AK	W 2-1	54.0	1457	1451	33.87%	15.66%	50.46%	-0.31	+20.1	15
1913-03-30	Ferencvaros	L 1-2	53.5	1477	1883	9.07%	15.10%	75.83%	-3.06	-4.2	15
1913-03-30	@ 33FC	W 2-1	53.5	1883	1477	75.83%	15.10%	9.07%	+3.06	+4.2	29
1913-03-30	Ujpest	D 2-2	60.9	1431	1338	62.22%	15.59%	22.19%	+1.15	-3.0	13
1913-03-30	@ Budapesti AK	D 2-2	60.9	1338	1431	22.19%	15.59%	62.22%	-1.15	+3.0	10
1913-03-30	Budapest TC	W 1-0	54.0	1552	1578	47.71%	15.67%	36.62%	+0.14	+16.2	16
1913-03-30	@ Magyar AC	L 0-1	54.0	1578	1552	36.62%	15.67%	47.71%	-0.14	-16.2	15
1913-03-30	MTK Budapest	L 2-3	51.3	1353	1647	16.03%	15.39%	68.58%	-2.12	-6.9	7
1913-03-30	@ Torekves SC	W 3-2	51.3	1647	1353	68.58%	15.39%	16.03%	+2.12	+6.9	20
1913-04-06	Torekves SC	L 0-1	56.8	1562	1347	72.31%	15.37%	12.32%	+2.17	-30.4	15
1913-04-06	@ Budapest TC	W 1-0	56.8	1347	1562	12.32%	15.37%	72.31%	-2.17	+30.4	9
1913-04-06	Terezvarosi TC	D 2-2	59.2	1341	1306	55.60%	15.64%	28.75%	+0.65	-2.0	11
1913-04-06	@ Ujpest	D 2-2	59.2	1306	1341	28.75%	15.64%	55.60%	-0.65	+2.0	4
1913-04-20	Magyar AC	L 0-1	51.5	1473	1568	37.99%	15.66%	46.36%	-0.44	-16.7	15
1913-04-20	@ 33FC	W 1-0	51.5	1568	1473	46.36%	15.66%	37.99%	+0.44	+16.7	18
1913-04-20	Budapest TC	D 0-0	59.3	1428	1531	36.87%	15.65%	47.47%	-0.51	+1.1	14
1913-04-20	@ Budapesti AK	D 0-0	59.3	1531	1428	47.47%	15.65%	36.87%	+0.51	-1.1	16
1913-04-20	Terezvarosi TC	W 3-1	40.1	1377	1308	59.60%	15.61%	24.78%	+0.94	+18.8	11
1913-04-20	@ Torekves SC	L 1-3	40.1	1308	1377	24.78%	15.61%	59.60%	-0.94	-18.8	4
1913-05-01	Budapest TC	L 0-3	35.5	1289	1530	20.59%	15.50%	63.91%	-1.67	-26.6	4
1913-05-01	@ Terezvarosi TC	W 3-0	35.5	1530	1289	63.91%	15.50%	20.59%	+1.67	+26.6	18
1913-05-01	Ujpest	D 0-0	53.2	1396	1339	58.24%	15.62%	26.13%	+0.84	-3.6	12
1913-05-01	@ Torekves SC	D 0-0	53.2	1339	1396	26.13%	15.62%	58.24%	-0.84	+3.6	12
1913-05-04	Nemzeti SC	L 1-3	54.5	1429	1138	76.54%	15.18%	8.28%	+2.82	-52.8	14
1913-05-04	@ Budapesti AK	W 3-1	54.5	1138	1429	8.28%	15.18%	76.54%	-2.82	+52.8	6
1913-05-04	33FC	L 1-4	43.8	1342	1456	35.36%	15.65%	49.00%	-0.60	-36.2	12
1913-05-04	@ Ujpest	W 4-1	43.8	1456	1342	49.00%	15.65%	35.36%	+0.60	+36.2	17
1913-05-10	Budapesti AK	L 2-3	70.3	1654	1377	75.85%	15.22%	8.93%	+2.70	-28.6	20
1913-05-10	@ MTK Budapest	W 3-2	70.3	1377	1654	8.93%	15.22%	75.85%	-2.70	+28.6	16
1913-05-12	Nemzeti SC	W 3-0	29.2	1493	1190	77.01%	15.15%	7.84%	+2.91	+10.7	19
1913-05-12	@ 33FC	L 0-3	29.2	1190	1493	7.84%	15.15%	77.01%	-2.91	-10.7	6
1913-05-25	Ferencvaros	FL	65.7	1306	1888	3.53%	14.45%	82.02%	-4.54	+0.0	12
1913-05-25	@ Ujpest	FW	65.7	1888	1306	82.02%	14.45%	3.53%	+4.54	+0.0	31
1913-05-25	Nemzeti SC	W 2-0	30.6	1557	1180	79.85%	14.91%	5.25%	+3.54	+5.0	20
1913-05-25	@ Budapest TC	L 0-2	30.6	1180	1557	5.25%	14.91%	79.85%	-3.54	-5.0	6
1913-05-25	Torekves SC	W 4-1	42.8	1585	1392	70.76%	15.42%	13.81%	+1.98	+15.5	20
1913-05-25	@ Magyar AC	L 1-4	42.8	1392	1585	13.81%	15.42%	70.76%	-1.98	-15.5	12
1913-05-25	Budapesti AK	L 1-4	40.6	1262	1405	31.59%	15.63%	52.79%	-0.85	-32.8	4
1913-05-25	@ Terezvarosi TC	W 4-1	40.6	1405	1262	52.79%	15.63%	31.59%	+0.85	+32.9	18
1913-05-31	MTK Budapest	L 1-4	54.4	1503	1626	34.27%	15.64%	50.08%	-0.67	-35.3	19
1913-05-31	@ 33FC	W 4-1	54.4	1626	1503	50.08%	15.64%	34.27%	+0.67	+35.3	22
1913-06-08	Budapesti AK	W 3-0	41.5	1600	1438	68.45%	15.48%	16.07%	+1.73	+21.2	22
1913-06-08	@ Magyar AC	L 0-3	41.5	1438	1600	16.07%	15.48%	68.45%	-1.73	-21.2	18
1913-06-08	Torekves SC	L 0-1	36.6	1175	1377	24.62%	15.56%	59.82%	-1.34	-11.4	6
1913-06-08	@ Nemzeti SC	W 1-0	36.6	1377	1175	59.82%	15.56%	24.62%	+1.34	+11.4	14
1913-06-08	MTK Budapest	L 0-4	32.5	1229	1661	7.94%	15.02%	77.04%	-3.28	-14.1	4
1913-06-08	@ Terezvarosi TC	W 4-0	32.5	1661	1229	77.04%	15.02%	7.94%	+3.28	+14.1	24
1913-06-15	Budapest TC	L 2-4	57.6	1468	1562	38.15%	15.66%	46.19%	-0.43	-24.5	19
1913-06-15	@ 33FC	W 4-2	57.6	1562	1468	46.19%	15.66%	38.15%	+0.43	+24.4	22
1913-06-15	Nemzeti SC	W 5-3	42.0	1622	1163	82.03%	14.60%	3.37%	+4.22	+2.3	24
1913-06-15	@ Magyar AC	L 3-5	42.0	1163	1622	3.37%	14.60%	82.03%	-4.22	-2.3	6
1913-06-15	Ujpest	W 4-0	34.9	1675	1306	79.59%	14.93%	5.48%	+3.47	+9.9	26
1913-06-15	@ MTK Budapest	L 0-4	34.9	1306	1675	5.48%	14.93%	79.59%	-3.47	-9.9	12
1913-06-15	Ferencvaros	L 1-4	43.4	1215	1888	2.15%	14.03%	83.82%	-5.31	-2.5	4
1913-06-15	@ Terezvarosi TC	W 4-1	43.4	1888	1215	83.82%	14.03%	2.15%	+5.31	+2.5	33
1913-06-19	Ferencvaros	W 1-0	68.7	1586	1890	15.28%	15.37%	69.35%	-2.20	+29.1	24
1913-06-19	@ Budapest TC	L 0-1	68.7	1890	1586	69.35%	15.37%	15.28%	+2.20	-29.1	33

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1913-05-04	8.28%	Nemzeti SC	1138	3	@ Budapesti AK	1429	1
2	1913-05-10	8.93%	Budapesti AK	1377	3	@ MTK Budapest	1654	2
3	1913-04-06	12.32%	Torekves SC	1347	1	@ Budapest TC	1562	0
4	1913-06-19	15.28%	@ Budapest TC	1586	1	Ferencvaros	1890	0
5	1912-10-27	27.50%	@ Budapesti AK	1463	1	MTK Budapest	1640	0
6	1912-12-15	27.66%	@ Torekves SC	1341	5	Budapesti AK	1516	2
7	1912-10-13	31.08%	@ Ujpest	1376	1	Budapest TC	1523	0
8	1913-02-16	33.85%	@ Budapest TC	1537	3	MTK Budapest	1663	1
9	1913-03-24	33.87%	33FC	1457	2	@ Budapesti AK	1451	1
10	1912-11-24	34.83%	Magyar AC	1456	4	@ Torekves SC	1443	0
11	1913-03-02	37.83%	Ujpest	1262	5	@ Nemzeti SC	1228	0
12	1912-11-24	37.90%	@ Terezvarosi TC	1285	5	Ujpest	1381	0
13	1912-11-10	40.49%	@ Ujpest	1394	4	Torekves SC	1471	2
14	1912-09-22	42.07%	Magyar AC	1453	3	@ Terezvarosi TC	1388	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1913-03-02	87.43	Ujpest	5	1262	37.83%	@ Nemzeti SC	0	1228	46.50%	15.67%
2	1912-11-24	87.32	@ Terezvarosi TC	5	1285	37.90%	Ujpest	0	1381	46.44%	15.66%
3	1912-11-24	75.01	Magyar AC	4	1456	34.83%	@ Torekves SC	0	1443	49.51%	15.67%
4	1913-05-04	52.78	Nemzeti SC	3	1138	8.28%	@ Budapesti AK	1	1429	76.54%	15.18%
5	1912-12-15	47.58	@ Torekves SC	5	1341	27.66%	Budapesti AK	2	1516	56.75%	15.59%
6	1912-11-17	40.49	@ 33FC	4	1369	44.05%	Ujpest	1	1421	40.28%	15.67%
7	1913-05-04	36.22	33FC	4	1456	49.00%	@ Ujpest	1	1342	35.36%	15.65%
8	1913-03-09	35.93	Ferencvaros	7	1838	72.64%	@ Budapesti AK	0	1487	12.10%	15.26%
9	1913-05-31	35.26	MTK Budapest	4	1626	50.08%	@ 33FC	1	1503	34.27%	15.64%
10	1912-09-29	35.16	Budapest TC	3	1488	56.30%	@ Nemzeti SC	0	1317	28.10%	15.60%
11	1913-02-16	34.85	@ Budapest TC	3	1537	33.85%	MTK Budapest	1	1663	50.51%	15.64%
12	1912-12-15	33.98	@ MTK Budapest	8	1629	74.76%	Terezvarosi TC	0	1372	9.96%	15.27%
13	1913-05-25	32.85	Budapesti AK	4	1405	52.79%	@ Terezvarosi TC	1	1262	31.59%	15.63%
14	1913-04-06	30.41	Torekves SC	1	1347	12.32%	@ Budapest TC	0	1562	72.31%	15.37%
15	1912-10-20	30.15	MTK Budapest	3	1610	60.81%	@ Ujpest	0	1399	23.65%	15.55%
16	1912-09-22	29.82	Magyar AC	3	1453	42.07%	@ Terezvarosi TC	1	1388	42.26%	15.67%
17	1913-06-19	29.07	@ Budapest TC	1	1586	15.28%	Ferencvaros	0	1890	69.35%	15.37%
18	1912-11-01	28.90	@ Budapesti AK	6	1487	68.07%	Terezvarosi TC	1	1330	16.44%	15.49%
19	1912-09-01	28.77	@ Ferencvaros	13	1705	78.04%	Nemzeti SC	1	1378	6.89%	15.07%
20	1912-11-17	28.64	@ Ferencvaros	7	1750	75.23%	Magyar AC	0	1485	9.52%	15.25%
21	1913-05-10	28.63	Budapesti AK	3	1377	8.93%	@ MTK Budapest	2	1654	75.85%	15.22%
22	1912-11-10	27.51	@ Ujpest	4	1394	40.49%	Torekves SC	2	1471	43.85%	15.66%
23	1912-12-15	27.03	Magyar AC	3	1527	63.54%	@ Ujpest	0	1289	20.96%	15.50%
24	1912-10-20	26.97	@ Budapest TC	2	1501	52.57%	Budapesti AK	0	1490	31.78%	15.66%
25	1913-05-01	26.60	Budapest TC	3	1530	63.91%	@ Terezvarosi TC	0	1289	20.59%	15.50%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1912-10-13	76.6	@ MTK Budapest	2	1608	31.51%	Ferencvaros	2	1752	52.86%	15.62%
2	1913-05-10	70.3	Budapesti AK	3	1377	8.93%	@ MTK Budapest	2	1654	75.85%	15.22%
3	1912-12-08	69.3	@ MTK Budapest	1	1633	62.84%	Budapest TC	1	1533	21.58%	15.58%
4	1913-06-19	68.7	@ Budapest TC	1	1586	15.28%	Ferencvaros	0	1890	69.35%	15.37%
5	1912-09-29	67.8	@ Ujpest	3	1375	33.42%	Budapesti AK	3	1504	50.94%	15.64%
6	1912-12-01	66.0	@ 33FC	2	1433	39.71%	Budapesti AK	2	1516	44.62%	15.66%
7	1913-03-09	65.9	@ 33FC	3	1460	63.75%	Torekves SC	3	1351	20.69%	15.57%
8	1913-02-16	62.5	@ Budapest TC	3	1537	33.85%	MTK Budapest	1	1663	50.51%	15.64%
9	1913-03-30	60.9	@ Budapesti AK	2	1431	62.22%	Ujpest	2	1338	22.19%	15.59%
10	1912-10-13	60.5	@ Torekves SC	2	1460	69.74%	Nemzeti SC	2	1281	14.81%	15.45%
11	1912-09-08	59.4	@ Torekves SC	0	1486	52.65%	Budapest TC	0	1475	31.70%	15.66%
12	1912-10-27	59.3	@ Budapesti AK	1	1463	27.50%	MTK Budapest	0	1640	56.91%	15.59%
13	1913-04-20	59.3	@ Budapesti AK	0	1428	36.87%	Budapest TC	0	1531	47.47%	15.65%
14	1913-04-06	59.2	@ Ujpest	2	1341	55.60%	Terezvarosi TC	2	1306	28.75%	15.64%
15	1913-03-22	58.2	@ Terezvarosi TC	2	1310	69.58%	Nemzeti SC	2	1133	14.96%	15.46%
16	1913-06-15	57.6	Budapest TC	4	1562	46.19%	@ 33FC	2	1468	38.15%	15.66%
17	1912-10-27	56.9	@ Budapest TC	0	1528	68.69%	33FC	0	1363	15.84%	15.48%
18	1913-04-06	56.8	Torekves SC	1	1347	12.32%	@ Budapest TC	0	1562	72.31%	15.37%
19	1912-11-10	55.4	@ Budapest TC	4	1522	53.32%	Magyar AC	2	1505	31.03%	15.65%
20	1912-12-01	55.4	MTK Budapest	1	1616	44.91%	@ Magyar AC	0	1531	39.43%	15.66%
21	1912-12-15	55.3	@ Torekves SC	5	1341	27.66%	Budapesti AK	2	1516	56.75%	15.59%
22	1913-05-04	54.5	Nemzeti SC	3	1138	8.28%	@ Budapesti AK	1	1429	76.54%	15.18%
23	1913-05-31	54.4	MTK Budapest	4	1626	50.08%	@ 33FC	1	1503	34.27%	15.64%
24	1913-03-16	54.2	@ Ferencvaros	3	1874	72.37%	MTK Budapest	1	1657	12.25%	15.37%
25	1913-03-24	54.0	33FC	2	1457	33.87%	@ Budapesti AK	1	1451	50.46%	15.66%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1913-03-09	27.2	@ MTK Budapest	6	1650	83.09%	Nemzeti SC	0	1140	2.53%	14.38%
2	1913-05-12	29.2	@ 33FC	3	1493	77.01%	Nemzeti SC	0	1190	7.84%	15.15%
3	1913-05-25	30.6	@ Budapest TC	2	1557	79.85%	Nemzeti SC	0	1180	5.25%	14.91%
4	1913-06-08	32.5	MTK Budapest	4	1661	77.04%	@ Terezvarosi TC	0	1229	7.94%	15.02%
5	1913-06-15	34.9	@ MTK Budapest	4	1675	79.59%	Ujpest	0	1306	5.48%	14.93%
6	1912-12-15	35.5	Magyar AC	3	1527	63.54%	@ Ujpest	0	1289	20.96%	15.50%
7	1913-05-01	35.5	Budapest TC	3	1530	63.91%	@ Terezvarosi TC	0	1289	20.59%	15.50%
8	1912-11-01	36.1	@ Budapesti AK	6	1487	68.07%	Terezvarosi TC	1	1330	16.44%	15.49%
9	1913-06-08	36.6	Torekves SC	1	1377	59.82%	@ Nemzeti SC	0	1175	24.62%	15.56%
10	1912-12-15	36.7	@ MTK Budapest	8	1629	74.76%	Terezvarosi TC	0	1372	9.96%	15.27%
11	1913-02-23	36.8	Ferencvaros	8	1826	82.13%	@ Nemzeti SC	0	1239	3.45%	14.43%
12	1912-09-29	37.4	Budapest TC	3	1488	56.30%	@ Nemzeti SC	0	1317	28.10%	15.60%
13	1913-03-02	37.9	@ Budapesti AK	2	1468	62.65%	Torekves SC	0	1370	21.77%	15.58%
14	1912-10-27	38.0	@ Ujpest	4	1368	61.06%	Nemzeti SC	1	1286	23.34%	15.60%
15	1913-03-02	38.0	Ujpest	5	1262	37.83%	@ Nemzeti SC	0	1228	46.50%	15.67%
16	1913-03-23	38.5	@ Magyar AC	1	1545	71.39%	Ujpest	0	1344	13.21%	15.40%
17	1912-11-24	39.0	@ Terezvarosi TC	5	1285	37.90%	Ujpest	0	1381	46.44%	15.66%
18	1913-03-09	39.2	@ Budapest TC	1	1572	72.76%	Ujpest	0	1350	11.88%	15.36%
19	1913-02-23	39.4	@ Magyar AC	4	1554	72.33%	Terezvarosi TC	1	1338	12.30%	15.37%
20	1912-09-01	39.7	@ Ferencvaros	13	1705	78.04%	Nemzeti SC	1	1378	6.89%	15.07%
21	1912-12-01	39.7	@ Ferencvaros	6	1788	81.07%	Torekves SC	0	1368	4.17%	14.75%
22	1913-04-20	40.1	@ Torekves SC	3	1377	59.60%	Terezvarosi TC	1	1308	24.78%	15.61%
23	1912-09-08	40.6	MTK Budapest	2	1558	60.51%	@ Nemzeti SC	0	1349	23.94%	15.55%
24	1913-05-25	40.6	Budapesti AK	4	1405	52.79%	@ Terezvarosi TC	1	1262	31.59%	15.63%
25	1912-10-13	40.7	@ Magyar AC	4	1483	63.99%	33FC	1	1371	20.45%	15.56%