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1913-14 I. Osztály Season

90 games

Final

Champion

MTK Budapest

33 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1907-08

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

MTK Budapest

6.86 points above expected

33 points · 26.14 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Budapesti AK

5.37 points below expected

11 points · 16.37 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 MTK Budapest Champion 18 15 3 0 33 56 12 +44 26.14 +6.86
2 Ferencvaros 18 13 1 4 27 61 28 +33 27.17 -0.17
3 Torekves SC 18 9 5 4 23 41 24 +17 17.24 +5.76
4 Budapest TC 18 9 4 5 22 45 19 +26 23.33 -1.33
5 Magyar AC 18 7 4 7 18 27 38 -11 21.08 -3.08
6 33FC 18 6 3 9 15 15 36 -21 16.67 -1.67
7 Ujpest 18 4 4 10 12 28 52 -24 12.21 -0.21
8 Budapesti AK 18 5 1 12 11 19 32 -13 16.37 -5.37
9 III. Kerulet 18 3 4 11 10 22 37 -15 10.35 -0.35
10 Nemzeti SC 18 3 3 12 9 17 53 -36 9.44 -0.44

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 MTK Budapest 33 26.14 +6.86
2 Torekves SC 23 17.24 +5.76
3 Ferencvaros 27 27.17 -0.17
4 Ujpest 12 12.21 -0.21
5 III. Kerulet 10 10.35 -0.35

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Budapesti AK 11 16.37 -5.37
2 Magyar AC 18 21.08 -3.08
3 33FC 15 16.67 -1.67
4 Budapest TC 22 23.33 -1.33
5 Nemzeti SC 9 9.44 -0.44

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 MTK Budapest 6 Sep 14 – Nov 16 1 in 32
2 III. Kerulet 2 Apr 26 – May 28 1 in 27
3 Nemzeti SC 2 Mar 29 – Apr 5 1 in 24
4 Ujpest 2 May 24 – Jun 1 1 in 14
5 Budapesti AK 2 Oct 12 – Oct 19 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ferencvaros 2 Oct 12 – Nov 9 1 in 22
2 Magyar AC 3 Nov 23 – Mar 1 1 in 14
3 Budapest TC 2 May 10 – May 17 1 in 12
4 Nemzeti SC 6 Nov 30 – Mar 22 1 in 12
5 Budapesti AK 4 Aug 31 – Sep 21 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Torekves SC 7 Feb 22 – May 17 1 in 82
2 MTK Budapest 18 Sep 14 – Jun 14 1 in 63
3 Nemzeti SC 2 Sep 7 – Sep 21 1 in 9
4 33FC 4 Oct 19 – Nov 23 1 in 6
5 Budapesti AK 2 Oct 12 – Oct 19 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 33FC 10 Nov 23 – Jun 11 1 in 78
2 III. Kerulet 13 Sep 14 – Apr 5 1 in 15
3 Ujpest 8 Aug 31 – Nov 16 1 in 15
4 Budapest TC 2 Sep 7 – Sep 14 1 in 9
5 Ferencvaros 2 Oct 12 – Nov 9 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
MTK Budapest 1650 33 +32 9 8.3 +0.7
Ferencvaros 1636 27 +5 8 7.5 +0.5
Torekves SC 1410 23 +17 6 5.6 +0.4
Budapest TC 1537 22 -8 5 6.9 -1.9
Magyar AC 1412 18 -12 6 4.9 +1.1
33FC 1296 15 -55 3 5.2 -2.2
Ujpest 1282 12 +30 5 3.1 +1.9
Budapesti AK 1325 11 -17 2 4.4 -2.4
III. Kerulet 1205 10 +33 5 2.5 +2.5
Nemzeti SC 1157 9 +7 5 2.6 +2.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 33F BT BA FER IK MB MA NS TS UJP
33FC —
0-0-2
1.71
2-0-0
2.72
0-0-2
1.18
1-0-1
4.11
0-1-1
1.18
1-1-0
2.06
1-1-0
4.10
0-0-2
2.98
1-0-1
3.56
Budapest TC
2-0-0
3.92
 —
0-0-2
4.17
1-0-1
2.02
2-0-0
4.68
0-0-2
2.31
1-1-0
3.11
1-1-0
4.83
0-2-0
3.93
2-0-0
4.39
Budapesti AK
0-0-2
2.90
2-0-0
1.47
 —
0-0-2
1.07
1-1-0
4.00
0-0-2
1.29
0-0-2
2.03
1-0-1
3.99
0-0-2
2.56
1-0-1
3.53
Ferencvaros
2-0-0
4.47
1-0-1
3.61
2-0-0
4.58
 —
2-0-0
5.05
0-0-2
3.37
1-0-1
4.10
2-0-0
5.06
1-1-0
4.50
2-0-0
4.87
III. Kerulet
1-0-1
1.53
0-0-2
0.98
0-1-1
1.64
0-0-2
0.64
 —
0-1-1
0.70
0-0-2
1.10
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
1.39
0-2-0
2.26
MTK Budapest
1-1-0
4.47
2-0-0
3.32
2-0-0
4.36
2-0-0
2.26
1-1-0
4.98
 —
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
5.08
1-1-0
4.29
2-0-0
4.73
Magyar AC
0-1-1
3.57
0-1-1
2.52
2-0-0
3.60
1-0-1
1.54
2-0-0
4.55
0-0-2
1.71
 —
1-0-1
4.61
0-1-1
3.33
1-1-0
4.16
Nemzeti SC
0-1-1
1.54
0-1-1
0.84
1-0-1
1.64
0-0-2
0.64
1-0-1
2.87
0-0-2
0.62
1-0-1
1.05
 —
0-0-2
1.52
0-1-1
2.18
Torekves SC
2-0-0
2.64
0-2-0
1.71
2-0-0
3.06
0-1-1
1.15
1-0-1
4.25
0-1-1
1.36
1-1-0
2.29
2-0-0
4.12
 —
1-0-1
3.89
Ujpest
1-0-1
2.07
0-0-2
1.26
1-0-1
2.09
0-0-2
0.80
0-2-0
3.37
0-0-2
0.93
0-1-1
1.48
1-1-0
3.44
1-0-1
1.74
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.83 +4.4
Allowed 0.68 -5.1
Differential 0.89 +2.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%7.22%2.22%5.56%0.56%5.56%23.33%
17.22%5.56%5.56%4.44%1.67%2.78%27.22%
22.22%5.56%10.00%3.89%0.56%—22.22%
35.56%4.44%3.89%—1.11%—15.00%
40.56%1.67%0.56%1.11%——3.89%
5+5.56%2.78%————8.33%
Total23.33%27.22%22.22%15.00%3.89%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.84 1.84 +0.00
SD 1.76 1.76 2.93
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%—11.11%44.44%
116.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%27.78%16.67%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.00 -1.17
SD 0.92 2.14 2.64
CV 1.11 1.07 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
1———5.56%——5.56%
2——16.67%———16.67%
316.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
4———————
5+11.11%11.11%————22.22%
Total33.33%33.33%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.06 +1.44
SD 2.15 0.94 2.64
CV 0.86 0.89 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—27.78%————27.78%
111.11%—5.56%22.22%—5.56%44.44%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%11.11%27.78%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.78 -0.72
SD 0.87 1.73 1.96
CV 0.83 0.98 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
2———11.11%——11.11%
35.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
4—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
5+16.67%5.56%————22.22%
Total27.78%22.22%22.22%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.39 1.56 +1.83
SD 2.12 1.29 3.01
CV 0.63 0.83 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
1—11.11%22.22%——5.56%38.89%
211.11%—11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%33.33%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.06 -0.83
SD 0.88 1.66 2.09
CV 0.72 0.81 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%5.56%————22.22%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
316.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total50.00%33.33%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.11 0.67 +2.44
SD 1.84 0.77 2.06
CV 0.59 1.15 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%—11.11%22.22%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%22.22%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.11 -0.61
SD 1.10 2.00 2.57
CV 0.73 0.95 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—11.11%—16.67%38.89%
1——11.11%—11.11%5.56%27.78%
2—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—27.78%27.78%11.11%11.11%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 2.94 -2.00
SD 0.87 2.01 2.57
CV 0.92 0.68 —
Max 2 8 +1
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
111.11%5.56%————16.67%
2—11.11%16.67%5.56%——33.33%
3—16.67%——5.56%—22.22%
4———————
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.33 +0.94
SD 2.11 1.19 2.67
CV 0.93 0.89 —
Max 9 4 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%33.33%
1—16.67%—5.56%—11.11%33.33%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total5.56%27.78%11.11%27.78%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 2.89 -1.33
SD 1.82 2.17 3.48
CV 1.17 0.75 —
Max 6 9 +6
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
MTK Budapest 1650 33 26.14 +6.86 100.0% 17 20 23 26 29 31 33
Ferencvaros 1636 27 27.17 -0.17 51.0% 20 23 25 27 29 31 33
Budapest TC 1537 22 23.33 -1.33 40.0% 16 18 22 23 26 28 31
Magyar AC 1412 18 21.08 -3.08 20.0% 13 16 19 21 23 26 28
Torekves SC 1410 23 17.24 +5.76 97.0% 10 12 15 17 19 22 25
Budapesti AK 1325 11 16.37 -5.37 7.0% 7 11 14 17 19 22 24
33FC 1296 15 16.67 -1.67 37.0% 8 12 14 16 19 23 24
Ujpest 1282 12 12.21 -0.21 58.0% 4 7 10 12 15 18 20
III. Kerulet 1205 10 10.35 -0.35 52.0% 4 6 8 10 13 16 18
Nemzeti SC 1157 9 9.44 -0.44 56.0% 3 5 7 9 11 15 17

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.67%
No Edge
44.44%17.78%37.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.
136 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.39 goals
Neutral
-2+0.17+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
38%
MTK Budapest, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.33/gm
Runaway
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.56 * Some Luck: 2.56 to 3.84 * Lucky: 3.84 to 5.12 * Wild Swing: 5.12 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.79 * Close: 0.79 to 1.19 * Off: 1.19 to 1.59 * Way Off: 1.59 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.51 points
Some Luck
03.208
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Close
00.992
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
MTK Budapest
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
7.00%
Budapesti AK
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Lopsided
00.150.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 171.14
2.10
Strong Separation
11.61.852.152.75
Interquartile Edge
78%
Wide Edge
50%65.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
94%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Some Drama
0%39%100%
Blowouts
Expected
32%
Very Frequent
0%40%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.52
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.49
Notable Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.16
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.83
Near-Lock
00.450.590.721
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.77
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.01
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.126
Well Within Noise
00.1630.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
MTK Budapest38.00%38.00%7.00%13.00%3.00%1.00%————
Ferencvaros47.00%38.00%14.00%—1.00%—————
Torekves SC—1.00%6.00%18.00%23.00%18.00%23.00%7.00%4.00%—
Budapest TC13.00%16.00%39.00%16.00%10.00%6.00%————
Magyar AC2.00%7.00%23.00%33.00%23.00%8.00%4.00%———
33FC——6.00%9.00%19.00%20.00%22.00%17.00%4.00%3.00%
Ujpest———3.00%3.00%9.00%14.00%29.00%23.00%19.00%
Budapesti AK——5.00%8.00%17.00%28.00%25.00%9.00%5.00%3.00%
III. Kerulet————1.00%6.00%8.00%21.00%38.00%26.00%
Nemzeti SC—————4.00%4.00%17.00%26.00%49.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
33FC 100%
Budapest TC 100%
Budapesti AK 100%
Ferencvaros 100%
III. Kerulet 100%
MTK Budapest 100%
Magyar AC 100%
Nemzeti SC 100%
Torekves SC 100%
Ujpest 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1913-08-31 Magyar AC L 0-142.2 1363 1485 28.91% 18.65% 52.44%-0.73 -5.1 0
1913-08-31 @ Budapesti AK W 1-042.2 1485 1363 52.44% 18.65% 28.91%+0.73 +5.1 2
1913-08-31 Torekves SC W 3-249.3 1626 1346 73.00% 17.07% 9.93%+2.23 +1.7 2
1913-08-31 @ Ferencvaros L 2-349.3 1346 1626 9.93% 17.07% 73.00%-2.23 -1.7 0
1913-08-31 Nemzeti SC W 3-037.6 1186 1211 41.97% 18.85% 39.18%-0.01 +18.1 2
1913-08-31 @ III. Kerulet L 0-337.6 1211 1186 39.18% 18.85% 41.97%+0.01 -18.1 0
1913-08-31 Budapest TC L 0-335.0 1292 1488 20.94% 18.25% 60.81%-1.27 -10.6 0
1913-08-31 @ Ujpest W 3-035.0 1488 1292 60.81% 18.25% 20.94%+1.27 +10.6 2
1913-09-07 Nemzeti SC D 2-259.7 1498 1193 74.51% 16.77% 8.72%+2.42 -2.0 3
1913-09-07 @ Budapest TC D 2-259.7 1193 1498 8.72% 16.77% 74.51%-2.42 +2.0 1
1913-09-07 Budapesti AK W 3-250.0 1628 1358 72.39% 17.18% 10.43%+2.15 +1.8 4
1913-09-07 @ Ferencvaros L 2-350.0 1358 1628 10.43% 17.18% 72.39%-2.15 -1.8 0
1913-09-07 33FC W 2-147.3 1345 1379 40.57% 18.85% 40.58%-0.09 +6.4 2
1913-09-07 @ Torekves SC L 1-247.3 1379 1345 40.58% 18.85% 40.57%+0.09 -6.4 0
1913-09-14 Magyar AC W 4-361.5 1629 1490 62.01% 18.32% 19.67%+1.19 +3.2 6
1913-09-14 @ Ferencvaros L 3-461.5 1490 1629 19.67% 18.32% 62.01%-1.19 -3.2 2
1913-09-14 Ujpest D 1-152.9 1204 1281 34.64% 18.79% 46.57%-0.40 +0.4 3
1913-09-14 @ III. Kerulet D 1-152.9 1281 1204 46.57% 18.79% 34.64%+0.40 -0.4 1
1913-09-14 Budapesti AK W 7-138.3 1533 1356 65.48% 18.05% 16.47%+1.47 +13.4 2
1913-09-14 @ MTK Budapest L 1-738.3 1356 1533 16.47% 18.05% 65.48%-1.47 -13.4 0
1913-09-14 Budapest TC D 2-262.2 1351 1496 26.22% 18.55% 55.24%-0.90 +0.8 3
1913-09-14 @ Torekves SC D 2-262.2 1496 1351 55.24% 18.55% 26.22%+0.90 -0.8 4
1913-09-21 Magyar AC W 3-258.4 1373 1487 29.90% 18.68% 51.42%-0.67 +7.5 2
1913-09-21 @ 33FC L 2-358.4 1487 1373 51.42% 18.68% 29.90%+0.67 -7.5 2
1913-09-21 Torekves SC L 1-346.9 1343 1352 44.20% 18.85% 36.95%+0.10 -11.9 0
1913-09-21 @ Budapesti AK W 3-146.9 1352 1343 36.95% 18.85% 44.20%-0.10 +11.9 5
1913-09-21 Budapest TC L 2-343.4 1204 1496 13.32% 17.44% 69.24%-1.97 -2.3 3
1913-09-21 @ III. Kerulet W 3-243.4 1496 1204 69.24% 17.44% 13.32%+1.97 +2.3 6
1913-09-21 Nemzeti SC D 2-257.8 1281 1195 56.40% 18.61% 24.99%+0.80 -0.9 2
1913-09-21 @ Ujpest D 2-257.8 1195 1281 24.99% 18.61% 56.40%-0.80 +0.9 2
1913-09-28 Ujpest W 2-035.4 1380 1280 57.99% 18.54% 23.47%+0.91 +8.1 4
1913-09-28 @ 33FC L 0-235.4 1280 1380 23.47% 18.54% 57.99%-0.91 -8.1 2
1913-09-28 Magyar AC D 2-266.5 1498 1480 47.92% 18.82% 33.26%+0.30 -0.4 7
1913-09-28 @ Budapest TC D 2-266.5 1480 1498 33.26% 18.82% 47.92%-0.30 +0.4 3
1913-09-28 III. Kerulet W 1-034.5 1364 1202 64.14% 18.16% 17.70%+1.36 +3.3 7
1913-09-28 @ Torekves SC L 0-134.5 1202 1364 17.70% 18.16% 64.14%-1.36 -3.3 3
1913-10-06 33FC W 8-039.1 1633 1389 70.70% 17.44% 11.86%+1.97 +15.7 8
1913-10-06 @ Ferencvaros L 0-839.1 1389 1633 11.86% 17.44% 70.70%-1.97 -15.7 4
1913-10-06 Ujpest W 5-031.3 1546 1272 72.66% 17.13% 10.21%+2.19 +8.7 4
1913-10-06 @ MTK Budapest L 0-531.3 1272 1546 10.21% 17.13% 72.66%-2.19 -8.7 2
1913-10-12 MTK Budapest L 2-371.4 1648 1555 57.22% 18.57% 24.21%+0.86 -8.2 8
1913-10-12 @ Ferencvaros W 3-271.4 1555 1648 24.21% 18.57% 57.22%-0.86 +8.2 6
1913-10-12 Magyar AC L 1-238.3 1196 1480 13.76% 17.50% 68.74%-1.92 -2.5 2
1913-10-12 @ Nemzeti SC W 2-138.3 1480 1196 68.74% 17.50% 13.76%+1.92 +2.5 5
1913-10-12 Budapesti AK L 0-337.4 1263 1331 36.00% 18.81% 45.18%-0.32 -16.9 2
1913-10-12 @ Ujpest W 3-037.4 1331 1263 45.18% 18.81% 36.00%+0.32 +16.9 2
1913-10-19 III. Kerulet W 1-034.2 1373 1199 65.25% 18.07% 16.68%+1.45 +3.1 6
1913-10-19 @ 33FC L 0-134.2 1199 1373 16.68% 18.07% 65.25%-1.45 -3.2 3
1913-10-19 Budapesti AK L 0-152.2 1497 1348 63.04% 18.24% 18.71%+1.27 -10.1 7
1913-10-19 @ Budapest TC W 1-052.2 1348 1497 18.71% 18.24% 63.04%-1.27 +10.1 4
1913-10-19 Torekves SC W 3-037.3 1563 1367 67.10% 17.89% 15.01%+1.61 +7.8 8
1913-10-19 @ MTK Budapest L 0-337.3 1367 1563 15.01% 17.89% 67.10%-1.61 -7.8 7
1913-11-01 MTK Budapest L 1-237.8 1196 1571 8.77% 16.49% 74.73%-2.59 -1.6 3
1913-11-01 @ III. Kerulet W 2-137.8 1571 1196 74.73% 16.49% 8.77%+2.59 +1.6 10
1913-11-01 Ujpest W 3-137.5 1483 1246 70.14% 17.52% 12.33%+1.91 +3.9 7
1913-11-01 @ Magyar AC L 1-337.5 1246 1483 12.33% 17.52% 70.14%-1.91 -3.9 2
1913-11-02 Nemzeti SC W 2-138.2 1376 1193 66.01% 18.00% 15.99%+1.52 +2.9 8
1913-11-02 @ 33FC L 1-238.2 1193 1376 15.99% 18.00% 66.01%-1.52 -2.8 2
1913-11-09 Budapest TC L 1-365.1 1640 1487 63.33% 18.22% 18.45%+1.29 -16.6 8
1913-11-09 @ Ferencvaros W 3-165.1 1487 1640 18.45% 18.22% 63.33%-1.29 +16.6 9
1913-11-09 Torekves SC L 0-136.3 1190 1359 23.63% 18.42% 57.96%-1.07 -4.3 2
1913-11-09 @ Nemzeti SC W 1-036.3 1359 1190 57.96% 18.42% 23.63%+1.07 +4.3 9
1913-11-16 33FC L 0-143.9 1358 1379 42.52% 18.85% 38.63%+0.01 -7.1 4
1913-11-16 @ Budapesti AK W 1-043.9 1379 1358 38.63% 18.85% 42.52%-0.01 +7.1 10
1913-11-16 Ujpest W 5-135.7 1624 1242 78.23% 15.83% 5.94%+2.97 +3.4 10
1913-11-16 @ Ferencvaros L 1-535.7 1242 1624 5.94% 15.83% 78.23%-2.97 -3.4 2
1913-11-16 Magyar AC L 1-238.1 1194 1486 13.24% 17.42% 69.33%-1.98 -2.4 3
1913-11-16 @ III. Kerulet W 2-138.1 1486 1194 69.33% 17.42% 13.24%+1.98 +2.4 9
1913-11-16 Budapest TC W 1-049.5 1572 1504 54.34% 18.68% 26.98%+0.68 +4.8 12
1913-11-16 @ MTK Budapest L 0-149.5 1504 1572 26.98% 18.68% 54.34%-0.68 -4.8 9
1913-11-23 MTK Budapest D 1-161.2 1386 1577 21.37% 18.28% 60.36%-1.24 +1.5 11
1913-11-23 @ 33FC D 1-161.2 1577 1386 60.36% 18.28% 21.37%+1.24 -1.5 13
1913-11-23 Nemzeti SC L 1-252.6 1351 1186 64.41% 18.14% 17.45%+1.38 -9.7 4
1913-11-23 @ Budapesti AK W 2-152.6 1186 1351 17.45% 18.14% 64.41%-1.38 +9.7 4
1913-11-23 Ferencvaros L 0-529.8 1192 1627 6.47% 15.72% 77.80%-3.03 -5.4 3
1913-11-23 @ III. Kerulet W 5-029.8 1627 1192 77.80% 15.72% 6.47%+3.03 +5.4 12
1913-11-23 Magyar AC W 3-152.6 1364 1489 28.55% 18.64% 52.81%-0.75 +14.0 11
1913-11-23 @ Torekves SC L 1-352.6 1489 1364 52.81% 18.64% 28.55%+0.75 -14.0 9
1913-11-30 33FC W 3-038.2 1499 1387 59.20% 18.48% 22.32%+0.99 +11.2 11
1913-11-30 @ Budapest TC L 0-338.2 1387 1499 22.32% 18.48% 59.20%-0.99 -11.2 11
1913-11-30 III. Kerulet D 2-258.1 1341 1186 63.50% 18.21% 18.29%+1.31 -1.3 5
1913-11-30 @ Budapesti AK D 2-258.1 1186 1341 18.29% 18.21% 63.50%-1.31 +1.3 4
1913-11-30 Nemzeti SC W 8-029.7 1632 1196 80.48% 15.06% 4.46%+3.38 +5.8 14
1913-11-30 @ Ferencvaros L 0-829.7 1196 1632 4.46% 15.06% 80.48%-3.38 -5.8 4
1913-11-30 Magyar AC W 3-044.5 1576 1475 58.05% 18.54% 23.41%+0.91 +11.7 15
1913-11-30 @ MTK Budapest L 0-344.5 1475 1576 23.41% 18.54% 58.05%-0.91 -11.7 9
1913-11-30 Torekves SC W 4-358.8 1239 1378 27.01% 18.58% 54.41%-0.85 +7.7 4
1913-11-30 @ Ujpest L 3-458.8 1378 1239 54.41% 18.58% 27.01%+0.85 -7.7 11
1913-12-08 Nemzeti SC W 4-134.5 1588 1190 78.95% 15.60% 5.45%+3.09 +2.4 17
1913-12-08 @ MTK Budapest L 1-434.5 1190 1588 5.45% 15.60% 78.95%-3.09 -2.4 4
1914-02-15 Ferencvaros W 4-160.3 1590 1638 38.66% 18.84% 42.49%-0.18 +16.3 19
1914-02-15 @ MTK Budapest L 1-460.3 1638 1590 42.49% 18.84% 38.66%+0.18 -16.3 14
1914-02-15 III. Kerulet D 1-152.8 1247 1187 53.21% 18.71% 28.08%+0.61 -0.9 5
1914-02-15 @ Ujpest D 1-152.8 1187 1247 28.08% 18.71% 53.21%-0.61 +0.9 5
1914-02-22 Torekves SC L 1-249.4 1376 1370 46.35% 18.84% 34.82%+0.22 -7.2 11
1914-02-22 @ 33FC W 2-149.4 1370 1376 34.82% 18.84% 46.35%-0.22 +7.2 13
1914-02-22 III. Kerulet W 6-132.0 1510 1188 75.39% 16.58% 8.03%+2.54 +5.7 13
1914-02-22 @ Budapest TC L 1-632.0 1188 1510 8.03% 16.58% 75.39%-2.54 -5.7 5
1914-02-22 Ferencvaros L 1-435.5 1187 1622 6.50% 15.73% 77.76%-3.02 -2.9 4
1914-02-22 @ Nemzeti SC W 4-135.5 1622 1187 77.76% 15.73% 6.50%+3.02 +2.9 16
1914-03-01 Budapest TC L 0-645.4 1463 1516 38.03% 18.84% 43.14%-0.22 -33.8 9
1914-03-01 @ Magyar AC W 6-045.4 1516 1463 43.14% 18.84% 38.03%+0.22 +33.8 15
1914-03-08 Ferencvaros L 0-339.9 1369 1625 15.82% 17.77% 66.41%-1.71 -8.2 11
1914-03-08 @ 33FC W 3-039.9 1625 1369 66.41% 17.77% 15.82%+1.71 +8.2 18
1914-03-08 MTK Budapest L 1-358.3 1550 1606 37.49% 18.83% 43.68%-0.25 -10.4 15
1914-03-08 @ Budapest TC W 3-158.3 1606 1550 43.68% 18.83% 37.49%+0.25 +10.4 21
1914-03-08 III. Kerulet W 3-029.8 1429 1183 70.86% 17.42% 11.72%+1.98 +6.2 11
1914-03-08 @ Magyar AC L 0-329.8 1183 1429 11.72% 17.42% 70.86%-1.98 -6.2 5
1914-03-08 Budapesti AK L 0-136.7 1185 1340 25.14% 18.50% 56.37%-0.97 -4.5 4
1914-03-08 @ Nemzeti SC W 1-036.7 1340 1185 56.37% 18.50% 25.14%+0.97 +4.5 7
1914-03-15 Ujpest W 5-134.9 1539 1246 73.82% 16.91% 9.27%+2.33 +5.3 17
1914-03-15 @ Budapest TC L 1-534.9 1246 1539 9.27% 16.91% 73.82%-2.33 -5.3 5
1914-03-15 MTK Budapest L 0-141.2 1344 1617 14.58% 17.62% 67.80%-1.83 -2.8 7
1914-03-15 @ Budapesti AK W 1-041.2 1617 1344 67.80% 17.62% 14.58%+1.83 +2.8 23
1914-03-15 Nemzeti SC W 5-029.6 1377 1180 67.18% 17.88% 14.94%+1.62 +12.5 15
1914-03-15 @ Torekves SC L 0-529.6 1180 1377 14.94% 17.88% 67.18%-1.62 -12.5 4
1914-03-22 Budapesti AK L 1-240.5 1177 1341 24.08% 18.44% 57.47%-1.04 -4.1 5
1914-03-22 @ III. Kerulet W 2-140.5 1341 1177 57.47% 18.44% 24.08%+1.04 +4.1 9
1914-03-22 Ujpest L 1-540.2 1167 1240 35.23% 18.80% 45.96%-0.37 -18.1 4
1914-03-22 @ Nemzeti SC W 5-140.2 1240 1167 45.96% 18.80% 35.23%+0.37 +18.1 7
1914-03-22 Ferencvaros D 1-163.6 1390 1633 16.78% 17.88% 65.34%-1.62 +1.9 16
1914-03-22 @ Torekves SC D 1-163.6 1633 1390 65.34% 17.88% 16.78%+1.62 -1.9 19
1914-03-25 33FC D 0-052.8 1435 1361 55.05% 18.66% 26.29%+0.72 -1.2 12
1914-03-25 @ Magyar AC D 0-052.8 1361 1435 26.29% 18.66% 55.05%-0.72 +1.2 12
1914-03-29 Torekves SC D 0-057.0 1545 1391 63.36% 18.22% 18.42%+1.30 -1.9 18
1914-03-29 @ Budapest TC D 0-057.0 1391 1545 18.42% 18.22% 63.36%-1.30 +1.9 17
1914-03-29 Nemzeti SC L 1-255.2 1434 1149 73.31% 17.01% 9.68%+2.26 -11.1 12
1914-03-29 @ Magyar AC W 2-155.2 1149 1434 9.68% 17.01% 73.31%-2.26 +11.1 6
1914-04-05 Ferencvaros L 1-344.7 1345 1631 13.69% 17.49% 68.81%-1.93 -4.2 9
1914-04-05 @ Budapesti AK W 3-144.7 1631 1345 68.81% 17.49% 13.69%+1.93 +4.2 21
1914-04-05 III. Kerulet W 2-144.2 1160 1172 43.82% 18.85% 37.33%+0.08 +6.0 8
1914-04-05 @ Nemzeti SC L 1-244.2 1172 1160 37.33% 18.85% 43.82%-0.08 -6.0 5
1914-04-05 MTK Budapest D 2-268.0 1393 1619 18.20% 18.02% 63.78%-1.49 +1.3 18
1914-04-05 @ Torekves SC D 2-268.0 1619 1393 63.78% 18.02% 18.20%+1.49 -1.3 24
1914-04-13 MTK Budapest L 0-432.8 1259 1618 9.50% 16.68% 73.82%-2.47 -6.5 7
1914-04-13 @ Ujpest W 4-032.8 1618 1259 73.82% 16.68% 9.50%+2.47 +6.5 26
1914-04-19 Budapest TC L 0-338.8 1362 1543 22.43% 18.35% 59.22%-1.16 -11.2 12
1914-04-19 @ 33FC W 3-038.8 1543 1362 59.22% 18.35% 22.43%+1.16 +11.2 20
1914-04-19 Ferencvaros W 3-268.5 1423 1635 19.44% 18.13% 62.43%-1.39 +9.0 14
1914-04-19 @ Magyar AC L 2-368.5 1635 1423 62.43% 18.13% 19.44%+1.39 -9.0 21
1914-04-26 33FC W 2-045.2 1166 1351 22.06% 18.32% 59.61%-1.18 +18.0 7
1914-04-26 @ III. Kerulet L 0-245.2 1351 1166 59.61% 18.32% 22.06%+1.18 -18.0 12
1914-04-26 MTK Budapest L 0-743.3 1432 1625 21.26% 18.27% 60.47%-1.24 -23.7 14
1914-04-26 @ Magyar AC W 7-043.3 1625 1432 60.47% 18.27% 21.26%+1.24 +23.7 28
1914-04-26 Budapest TC L 0-628.7 1166 1554 8.25% 16.34% 75.40%-2.68 -8.3 8
1914-04-26 @ Nemzeti SC W 6-028.7 1554 1166 75.40% 16.34% 8.25%+2.68 +8.3 22
1914-04-26 Budapesti AK W 3-142.9 1395 1341 52.49% 18.73% 28.77%+0.56 +8.4 20
1914-04-26 @ Torekves SC L 1-342.9 1341 1395 28.77% 18.73% 52.49%-0.56 -8.4 9
1914-05-03 Magyar AC D 1-154.0 1252 1408 24.99% 18.49% 56.52%-0.98 +1.2 8
1914-05-03 @ Ujpest D 1-154.0 1408 1252 56.52% 18.49% 24.99%+0.98 -1.2 15
1914-05-10 Ferencvaros L 0-155.7 1562 1626 36.45% 18.82% 44.73%-0.30 -6.2 22
1914-05-10 @ Budapest TC W 1-055.7 1626 1562 44.73% 18.82% 36.45%+0.30 +6.2 23
1914-05-10 Budapesti AK W 1-039.0 1407 1333 55.03% 18.66% 26.32%+0.72 +4.7 17
1914-05-10 @ Magyar AC L 0-139.0 1333 1407 26.32% 18.66% 55.03%-0.72 -4.7 9
1914-05-17 Budapest TC W 2-051.8 1328 1556 18.05% 18.01% 63.94%-1.50 +19.3 11
1914-05-17 @ Budapesti AK L 0-251.8 1556 1328 63.94% 18.01% 18.05%+1.50 -19.3 22
1914-05-17 33FC D 2-257.9 1158 1333 23.06% 18.39% 58.56%-1.11 +1.0 9
1914-05-17 @ Nemzeti SC D 2-257.9 1333 1158 58.56% 18.39% 23.06%+1.11 -1.0 13
1914-05-17 Ujpest W 9-032.2 1403 1253 63.04% 18.25% 18.72%+1.27 +27.0 22
1914-05-17 @ Torekves SC L 0-932.2 1253 1403 18.72% 18.25% 63.04%-1.27 -27.0 8
1914-05-21 MTK Budapest L 0-329.8 1159 1648 4.91% 14.97% 80.11%-3.43 -2.5 9
1914-05-21 @ Nemzeti SC W 3-029.8 1648 1159 80.11% 14.97% 4.91%+3.43 +2.5 30
1914-05-24 Ujpest L 1-350.6 1347 1226 60.20% 18.43% 21.37%+1.06 -15.8 11
1914-05-24 @ Budapesti AK W 3-150.6 1226 1347 21.37% 18.43% 60.20%-1.06 +15.8 10
1914-05-28 Torekves SC W 2-047.4 1184 1430 16.61% 17.86% 65.53%-1.63 +19.8 9
1914-05-28 @ III. Kerulet L 0-247.4 1430 1184 65.53% 17.86% 16.61%+1.63 -19.8 22
1914-06-01 33FC W 6-040.0 1242 1332 33.02% 18.76% 48.22%-0.49 +41.2 12
1914-06-01 @ Ujpest L 0-640.0 1332 1242 48.22% 18.76% 33.02%+0.49 -41.2 13
1914-06-11 III. Kerulet W 4-241.2 1633 1204 80.16% 15.18% 4.66%+3.32 +1.3 25
1914-06-11 @ Ferencvaros L 2-441.2 1204 1633 4.66% 15.18% 80.16%-3.32 -1.3 9
1914-06-11 Torekves SC D 2-261.5 1412 1410 45.72% 18.84% 35.44%+0.18 -0.3 18
1914-06-11 @ Magyar AC D 2-261.5 1410 1412 35.44% 18.84% 45.72%-0.18 +0.3 23
1914-06-11 33FC W 1-037.7 1651 1290 77.30% 16.10% 6.60%+2.82 +1.3 32
1914-06-11 @ MTK Budapest L 0-137.7 1290 1651 6.60% 16.10% 77.30%-2.82 -1.3 13
1914-06-14 Budapesti AK W 1-042.3 1289 1332 39.49% 18.85% 41.67%-0.14 +7.0 15
1914-06-14 @ 33FC L 0-142.3 1332 1289 41.67% 18.85% 39.49%+0.14 -6.9 11
1914-06-14 III. Kerulet D 2-263.5 1652 1203 80.94% 14.88% 4.18%+3.47 -2.3 33
1914-06-14 @ MTK Budapest D 2-263.5 1203 1652 4.18% 14.88% 80.94%-3.47 +2.3 10
1914-06-14 Ferencvaros L 2-347.2 1283 1634 9.94% 16.79% 73.27%-2.41 -1.7 12
1914-06-14 @ Ujpest W 3-247.2 1634 1283 73.27% 16.79% 9.94%+2.41 +1.7 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1914-03-29 9.68% Nemzeti SC 1149 2 @ Magyar AC 1434 1
2 1914-05-28 16.61% @ III. Kerulet 1184 2 Torekves SC 1430 0
3 1913-11-23 17.45% Nemzeti SC 1186 2 @ Budapesti AK 1351 1
4 1914-05-17 18.05% @ Budapesti AK 1328 2 Budapest TC 1556 0
5 1913-11-09 18.45% Budapest TC 1487 3 @ Ferencvaros 1640 1
6 1913-10-19 18.71% Budapesti AK 1348 1 @ Budapest TC 1497 0
7 1914-04-19 19.44% @ Magyar AC 1423 3 Ferencvaros 1635 2
8 1914-05-24 21.37% Ujpest 1226 3 @ Budapesti AK 1347 1
9 1914-04-26 22.06% @ III. Kerulet 1166 2 33FC 1351 0
10 1913-10-12 24.21% MTK Budapest 1555 3 @ Ferencvaros 1648 2
11 1913-11-30 27.01% @ Ujpest 1239 4 Torekves SC 1378 3
12 1913-11-23 28.55% @ Torekves SC 1364 3 Magyar AC 1489 1
13 1913-09-21 29.90% @ 33FC 1373 3 Magyar AC 1487 2
14 1914-06-01 33.02% @ Ujpest 1242 6 33FC 1332 0
15 1914-02-22 34.82% Torekves SC 1370 2 @ 33FC 1376 1
16 1913-09-21 36.95% Torekves SC 1352 3 @ Budapesti AK 1343 1
17 1913-11-16 38.63% 33FC 1379 1 @ Budapesti AK 1358 0
18 1914-02-15 38.66% @ MTK Budapest 1590 4 Ferencvaros 1638 1
19 1914-06-14 39.49% @ 33FC 1289 1 Budapesti AK 1332 0
20 1913-09-07 40.57% @ Torekves SC 1345 2 33FC 1379 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1914-06-01 41.25 @ Ujpest 6 1242 33.02% 33FC 0 1332 48.22% 18.76%
2 1914-03-01 33.82 Budapest TC 6 1516 43.14% @ Magyar AC 0 1463 38.03% 18.84%
3 1914-05-17 26.96 @ Torekves SC 9 1403 63.04% Ujpest 0 1253 18.72% 18.25%
4 1914-04-26 23.73 MTK Budapest 7 1625 60.47% @ Magyar AC 0 1432 21.26% 18.27%
5 1914-05-28 19.80 @ III. Kerulet 2 1184 16.61% Torekves SC 0 1430 65.53% 17.86%
6 1914-05-17 19.32 @ Budapesti AK 2 1328 18.05% Budapest TC 0 1556 63.94% 18.01%
7 1913-08-31 18.13 @ III. Kerulet 3 1186 41.97% Nemzeti SC 0 1211 39.18% 18.85%
8 1914-03-22 18.07 Ujpest 5 1240 45.96% @ Nemzeti SC 1 1167 35.23% 18.80%
9 1914-04-26 18.05 @ III. Kerulet 2 1166 22.06% 33FC 0 1351 59.61% 18.32%
10 1913-10-12 16.91 Budapesti AK 3 1331 45.18% @ Ujpest 0 1263 36.00% 18.81%
11 1913-11-09 16.61 Budapest TC 3 1487 18.45% @ Ferencvaros 1 1640 63.33% 18.22%
12 1914-02-15 16.34 @ MTK Budapest 4 1590 38.66% Ferencvaros 1 1638 42.49% 18.84%
13 1914-05-24 15.80 Ujpest 3 1226 21.37% @ Budapesti AK 1 1347 60.20% 18.43%
14 1913-10-06 15.68 @ Ferencvaros 8 1633 70.70% 33FC 0 1389 11.86% 17.44%
15 1913-11-23 13.95 @ Torekves SC 3 1364 28.55% Magyar AC 1 1489 52.81% 18.64%
16 1913-09-14 13.43 @ MTK Budapest 7 1533 65.48% Budapesti AK 1 1356 16.47% 18.05%
17 1914-03-15 12.52 @ Torekves SC 5 1377 67.18% Nemzeti SC 0 1180 14.94% 17.88%
18 1913-09-21 11.94 Torekves SC 3 1352 36.95% @ Budapesti AK 1 1343 44.20% 18.85%
19 1913-11-30 11.71 @ MTK Budapest 3 1576 58.05% Magyar AC 0 1475 23.41% 18.54%
20 1914-04-19 11.25 Budapest TC 3 1543 59.22% @ 33FC 0 1362 22.43% 18.35%
21 1913-11-30 11.23 @ Budapest TC 3 1499 59.20% 33FC 0 1387 22.32% 18.48%
22 1914-03-29 11.08 Nemzeti SC 2 1149 9.68% @ Magyar AC 1 1434 73.31% 17.01%
23 1913-08-31 10.58 Budapest TC 3 1488 60.81% @ Ujpest 0 1292 20.94% 18.25%
24 1914-03-08 10.42 MTK Budapest 3 1606 43.68% @ Budapest TC 1 1550 37.49% 18.83%
25 1913-10-19 10.12 Budapesti AK 1 1348 18.71% @ Budapest TC 0 1497 63.04% 18.24%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1913-10-12 71.4 MTK Budapest 3 1555 24.21% @ Ferencvaros 2 1648 57.22% 18.57%
2 1914-04-19 68.5 @ Magyar AC 3 1423 19.44% Ferencvaros 2 1635 62.43% 18.13%
3 1914-04-05 68.0 @ Torekves SC 2 1393 18.20% MTK Budapest 2 1619 63.78% 18.02%
4 1913-09-28 66.5 @ Budapest TC 2 1498 47.92% Magyar AC 2 1480 33.26% 18.82%
5 1913-11-09 65.1 Budapest TC 3 1487 18.45% @ Ferencvaros 1 1640 63.33% 18.22%
6 1914-03-22 63.6 @ Torekves SC 1 1390 16.78% Ferencvaros 1 1633 65.34% 17.88%
7 1914-06-14 63.5 @ MTK Budapest 2 1652 80.94% III. Kerulet 2 1203 4.18% 14.88%
8 1913-09-14 62.2 @ Torekves SC 2 1351 26.22% Budapest TC 2 1496 55.24% 18.55%
9 1913-09-14 61.5 @ Ferencvaros 4 1629 62.01% Magyar AC 3 1490 19.67% 18.32%
10 1914-06-11 61.5 @ Magyar AC 2 1412 45.72% Torekves SC 2 1410 35.44% 18.84%
11 1913-11-23 61.2 @ 33FC 1 1386 21.37% MTK Budapest 1 1577 60.36% 18.28%
12 1914-02-15 60.3 @ MTK Budapest 4 1590 38.66% Ferencvaros 1 1638 42.49% 18.84%
13 1913-09-07 59.7 @ Budapest TC 2 1498 74.51% Nemzeti SC 2 1193 8.72% 16.77%
14 1913-11-30 58.8 @ Ujpest 4 1239 27.01% Torekves SC 3 1378 54.41% 18.58%
15 1913-09-21 58.4 @ 33FC 3 1373 29.90% Magyar AC 2 1487 51.42% 18.68%
16 1914-03-08 58.3 MTK Budapest 3 1606 43.68% @ Budapest TC 1 1550 37.49% 18.83%
17 1913-11-30 58.1 @ Budapesti AK 2 1341 63.50% III. Kerulet 2 1186 18.29% 18.21%
18 1914-05-17 57.9 @ Nemzeti SC 2 1158 23.06% 33FC 2 1333 58.56% 18.39%
19 1913-09-21 57.8 @ Ujpest 2 1281 56.40% Nemzeti SC 2 1195 24.99% 18.61%
20 1914-03-29 57.0 @ Budapest TC 0 1545 63.36% Torekves SC 0 1391 18.42% 18.22%
21 1914-05-10 55.7 Ferencvaros 1 1626 44.73% @ Budapest TC 0 1562 36.45% 18.82%
22 1914-03-29 55.2 Nemzeti SC 2 1149 9.68% @ Magyar AC 1 1434 73.31% 17.01%
23 1914-05-03 54.0 @ Ujpest 1 1252 24.99% Magyar AC 1 1408 56.52% 18.49%
24 1913-09-14 52.9 @ III. Kerulet 1 1204 34.64% Ujpest 1 1281 46.57% 18.79%
25 1914-02-15 52.8 @ Ujpest 1 1247 53.21% III. Kerulet 1 1187 28.08% 18.71%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1914-04-26 28.7 Budapest TC 6 1554 75.40% @ Nemzeti SC 0 1166 8.25% 16.34%
2 1914-03-15 29.6 @ Torekves SC 5 1377 67.18% Nemzeti SC 0 1180 14.94% 17.88%
3 1913-11-30 29.7 @ Ferencvaros 8 1632 80.48% Nemzeti SC 0 1196 4.46% 15.06%
4 1913-11-23 29.8 Ferencvaros 5 1627 77.80% @ III. Kerulet 0 1192 6.47% 15.72%
5 1914-03-08 29.8 @ Magyar AC 3 1429 70.86% III. Kerulet 0 1183 11.72% 17.42%
6 1914-05-21 29.8 MTK Budapest 3 1648 80.11% @ Nemzeti SC 0 1159 4.91% 14.97%
7 1913-10-06 31.3 @ MTK Budapest 5 1546 72.66% Ujpest 0 1272 10.21% 17.13%
8 1914-02-22 32.0 @ Budapest TC 6 1510 75.39% III. Kerulet 1 1188 8.03% 16.58%
9 1914-05-17 32.2 @ Torekves SC 9 1403 63.04% Ujpest 0 1253 18.72% 18.25%
10 1914-04-13 32.8 MTK Budapest 4 1618 73.82% @ Ujpest 0 1259 9.50% 16.68%
11 1913-10-19 34.2 @ 33FC 1 1373 65.25% III. Kerulet 0 1199 16.68% 18.07%
12 1913-09-28 34.5 @ Torekves SC 1 1364 64.14% III. Kerulet 0 1202 17.70% 18.16%
13 1913-12-08 34.5 @ MTK Budapest 4 1588 78.95% Nemzeti SC 1 1190 5.45% 15.60%
14 1914-03-15 34.9 @ Budapest TC 5 1539 73.82% Ujpest 1 1246 9.27% 16.91%
15 1913-08-31 35.0 Budapest TC 3 1488 60.81% @ Ujpest 0 1292 20.94% 18.25%
16 1913-09-28 35.4 @ 33FC 2 1380 57.99% Ujpest 0 1280 23.47% 18.54%
17 1914-02-22 35.5 Ferencvaros 4 1622 77.76% @ Nemzeti SC 1 1187 6.50% 15.73%
18 1913-11-16 35.7 @ Ferencvaros 5 1624 78.23% Ujpest 1 1242 5.94% 15.83%
19 1913-11-09 36.3 Torekves SC 1 1359 57.96% @ Nemzeti SC 0 1190 23.63% 18.42%
20 1914-03-08 36.7 Budapesti AK 1 1340 56.37% @ Nemzeti SC 0 1185 25.14% 18.50%
21 1913-10-19 37.3 @ MTK Budapest 3 1563 67.10% Torekves SC 0 1367 15.01% 17.89%
22 1913-10-12 37.4 Budapesti AK 3 1331 45.18% @ Ujpest 0 1263 36.00% 18.81%
23 1913-11-01 37.5 @ Magyar AC 3 1483 70.14% Ujpest 1 1246 12.33% 17.52%
24 1913-08-31 37.6 @ III. Kerulet 3 1186 41.97% Nemzeti SC 0 1211 39.18% 18.85%
25 1914-06-11 37.7 @ MTK Budapest 1 1651 77.30% 33FC 0 1290 6.60% 16.10%