2013 1. deild karla Season

132 games

Final

Promoted

Fjolnir

43 pts

Vikingur Reykjavik · 42 pts

Relegated

IF Volsungur

2 pts

KF Fjallabyggar · 21 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fjolnir

11.96 points above expected

43 points · 31.04 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IF Volsungur

19.99 points below expected

2 points · 21.99 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fjolnir Promoted 22 13 4 5 43 38 24 +14 31.04 +11.96
2 Vikingur Reykjavik Promoted 22 12 6 4 42 56 28 +28 34.45 +7.55
3 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 22 12 6 4 42 49 29 +20 32.81 +9.19
4 Grindavik 22 13 3 6 42 51 32 +19 37.18 +4.82
5 IB Bolungarvik 22 13 1 8 40 47 39 +8 28.05 +11.95
6 KA Akureyri 22 9 5 8 32 38 31 +7 28.45 +3.55
7 Leiknir Reykjavik 22 9 5 8 32 36 31 +5 30.03 +1.97
8 Selfoss 22 8 3 11 27 44 38 +6 35.34 -8.34
9 Tindastoll 22 6 7 9 25 29 40 -11 27.45 -2.45
10 Throttur Reykjavik 22 7 2 13 23 26 36 -10 25.85 -2.85
11 KF Fjallabyggar Relegated 22 5 6 11 21 25 41 -16 33.26 -12.26
12 IF Volsungur Relegated 22 0 2 20 2 15 85 -70 21.99 -19.99

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Vikingur Reykjavik 1194 42 34.45 +7.55 90.4% 12 24 30 34 39 45 59
Fjolnir 1192 43 31.04 +11.96 97.8% 10 21 27 31 35 41 54
Grindavik 1171 42 37.18 +4.82 81.0% 13 27 33 37 41 47 60
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1164 42 32.81 +9.19 94.3% 13 23 29 33 37 43 55
Selfoss 1124 27 35.34 -8.34 10.0% 14 25 31 35 39 46 57
IB Bolungarvik 1118 40 28.05 +11.95 97.8% 8 18 24 28 32 38 49
KA Akureyri 1112 32 28.45 +3.55 75.1% 7 18 24 28 32 39 51
Leiknir Reykjavik 1098 32 30.03 +1.97 65.6% 10 20 26 30 34 40 52
Throttur Reykjavik 1023 23 25.85 -2.85 35.5% 6 16 22 26 30 36 50
Tindastoll 1002 25 27.45 -2.45 38.0% 7 17 23 27 32 38 52
KF Fjallabyggar 998 21 33.26 -12.26 2.7% 10 23 29 33 37 43 56
IF Volsungur 804 2 21.99 -19.99 0.0% 4 13 18 22 26 31 45

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FJO GRI HH IB IV KA KF LR SEL TR TIN VR
Fjolnir
1-1-0
2.17
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.99
2-0-0
3.67
0-1-1
2.89
2-0-0
2.28
2-0-0
2.97
2-0-0
2.42
0-1-1
3.34
1-1-0
3.01
1-0-1
2.52
Grindavik
0-1-1
3.37
1-1-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.45
2-0-0
4.01
1-1-0
3.41
2-0-0
3.25
2-0-0
3.31
0-0-2
3.20
2-0-0
3.74
2-0-0
3.30
0-0-2
2.93
Haukar Hafnarfjordur
1-0-1
2.86
0-1-1
2.43
1-1-0
3.19
2-0-0
4.19
2-0-0
3.16
1-1-0
2.45
0-2-0
2.90
2-0-0
2.29
1-0-1
3.08
1-0-1
3.44
1-1-0
2.72
IB Bolungarvik
1-0-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.09
0-1-1
2.35
2-0-0
2.75
1-0-1
3.07
2-0-0
2.40
1-0-1
2.46
2-0-0
2.08
1-0-1
2.77
2-0-0
3.00
0-0-2
2.51
IF Volsungur
0-0-2
1.89
0-0-2
1.56
0-0-2
1.41
0-0-2
2.79
0-0-2
1.96
0-0-2
1.82
0-0-2
2.45
0-1-1
1.75
0-0-2
2.52
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
1.43
KA Akureyri
1-1-0
2.64
0-1-1
2.13
0-0-2
2.38
1-0-1
2.47
2-0-0
3.59
0-1-1
2.43
0-0-2
2.59
2-0-0
2.21
2-0-0
3.07
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.35
KF Fjallabyggar
0-0-2
3.26
0-0-2
2.29
0-1-1
3.08
0-0-2
3.14
2-0-0
3.73
1-1-0
3.11
0-1-1
3.28
2-0-0
2.17
0-0-2
3.22
0-1-1
3.08
0-2-0
2.91
Leiknir Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.56
0-0-2
2.23
0-2-0
2.64
1-0-1
3.08
2-0-0
3.10
2-0-0
2.95
1-1-0
2.26
1-0-1
2.35
2-0-0
3.16
0-1-1
2.92
0-1-1
2.75
Selfoss
0-0-2
3.12
2-0-0
2.34
0-0-2
3.25
0-0-2
3.46
1-1-0
3.82
0-0-2
3.33
0-0-2
3.38
1-0-1
3.18
1-1-0
3.58
1-1-0
3.25
2-0-0
2.64
Throttur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.21
0-0-2
1.82
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.76
2-0-0
3.02
0-0-2
2.47
2-0-0
2.32
0-0-2
2.37
0-1-1
1.97
0-0-2
2.70
0-0-2
1.76
Tindastoll
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.24
1-0-1
2.11
0-0-2
2.53
1-1-0
3.01
0-1-1
2.86
1-1-0
2.46
1-1-0
2.62
0-1-1
2.29
2-0-0
2.84
0-1-1
2.05
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.01
2-0-0
2.61
0-1-1
2.82
2-0-0
3.02
2-0-0
4.17
1-1-0
3.19
0-2-0
2.63
1-1-0
2.78
0-0-2
2.89
2-0-0
3.80
1-1-0
3.49

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.78 +8.8
Allowed 0.75 -6.7
Differential 0.91 +4.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.79%6.82%3.03%4.17%0.76%1.52%20.08%
16.82%9.09%8.71%4.55%1.52%2.27%32.95%
23.03%8.71%6.06%3.03%2.27%0.38%23.48%
34.17%4.55%3.03%1.52%13.26%
40.76%1.52%2.27%1.52%6.06%
5+1.52%2.27%0.38%4.17%
Total20.08%32.95%23.48%13.26%6.06%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.72 +0.00
SD 1.66 1.66 2.54
CV 0.96 0.96
Max 16 16 +16
Min 0 0 -16

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%18.18%
113.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
24.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total36.36%45.45%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.09 +0.64
SD 1.20 1.34 1.73
CV 0.70 1.23
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
14.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%22.73%
29.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%9.09%13.64%
Total27.27%31.82%18.18%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 1.45 +0.86
SD 1.89 1.30 2.64
CV 0.81 0.89
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%31.82%
218.18%9.09%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total18.18%45.45%27.27%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 1.32 +0.91
SD 1.72 0.99 2.07
CV 0.77 0.75
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
213.64%9.09%4.55%9.09%36.36%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
5+
Total22.73%22.73%27.27%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.77 +0.36
SD 1.28 1.51 2.04
CV 0.60 0.85
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%13.64%40.91%
14.55%9.09%18.18%4.55%13.64%50.00%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
3
4
5+
Total4.55%9.09%13.64%36.36%9.09%27.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 3.86 -3.18
SD 0.65 3.21 3.38
CV 0.95 0.83
Max 2 16 +0
Min 0 0 -16

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%
118.18%9.09%13.64%4.55%45.45%
24.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total31.82%27.27%22.73%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.41 +0.32
SD 1.55 1.37 2.01
CV 0.90 0.97
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
122.73%13.64%4.55%40.91%
29.09%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total54.55%27.27%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.86 -0.73
SD 1.13 1.42 2.10
CV 0.99 0.76
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%
113.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
313.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
4
5+
Total31.82%27.27%18.18%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.41 +0.23
SD 1.05 1.33 1.48
CV 0.64 0.95
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
19.09%4.55%13.64%27.27%
24.55%4.55%13.64%22.73%
34.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
44.55%4.55%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total18.18%27.27%27.27%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.73 +0.27
SD 1.72 1.24 2.07
CV 0.86 0.72
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%13.64%31.82%
14.55%22.73%9.09%36.36%
29.09%4.55%13.64%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
4
5+
Total13.64%31.82%31.82%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.64 -0.45
SD 1.10 1.00 1.68
CV 0.93 0.61
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%4.55%27.27%
122.73%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
29.09%9.09%18.18%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total4.55%45.45%27.27%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.82 -0.50
SD 1.17 1.18 1.74
CV 0.89 0.65
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
19.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%13.64%27.27%
39.09%9.09%18.18%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total31.82%27.27%36.36%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.55 1.27 +1.27
SD 3.25 1.35 3.77
CV 1.28 1.06
Max 16 6 +16
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fjolnir 43 31.04 +11.96
2 IB Bolungarvik 40 28.05 +11.95
3 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 42 32.81 +9.19
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 42 34.45 +7.55
5 Grindavik 42 37.18 +4.82

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IF Volsungur 2 21.99 -19.99
2 KF Fjallabyggar 21 33.26 -12.26
3 Selfoss 27 35.34 -8.34
4 Throttur Reykjavik 23 25.85 -2.85
5 Tindastoll 25 27.45 -2.45

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grindavik 6 May 17 – Jun 22 1 in 75
2 IB Bolungarvik 3 Jun 1 – Jun 16 1 in 38
3 Fjolnir 3 Jul 11 – Jul 20 1 in 36
4 Leiknir Reykjavik 4 Jul 27 – Aug 16 1 in 31
5 Tindastoll 3 Jul 20 – Aug 1 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Volsungur 16 Jun 22 – Sep 21 1 in 9,828
2 Selfoss 3 Jul 11 – Jul 20 1 in 32
3 IB Bolungarvik 4 Jun 22 – Jul 13 1 in 25
4 KA Akureyri 4 May 25 – Jun 14 1 in 20
5 Tindastoll 4 Aug 29 – Sep 21 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KA Akureyri 8 Jun 22 – Jul 31 1 in 75
2 Fjolnir 7 Jun 14 – Jul 20 1 in 55
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 10 May 24 – Jul 19 1 in 54
4 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 7 May 23 – Jul 6 1 in 37
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 6 May 9 – Jun 13 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Volsungur 22 May 9 – Sep 21 1 in 1,049
2 KF Fjallabyggar 7 Jul 20 – Aug 24 1 in 39
3 Grindavik 4 Jul 16 – Aug 1 1 in 13
4 Tindastoll 6 Jun 2 – Jul 4 1 in 10
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Jul 25 – Aug 16 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Fjolnir6.15%7.66%9.77%10.12%10.20%10.77%10.20%9.48%8.61%7.86%5.56%3.62%
Vikingur Reykjavik16.41%14.70%13.39%11.50%10.74%8.72%7.36%6.13%4.53%3.38%2.19%0.95%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur10.31%11.06%12.26%11.15%11.33%10.16%9.17%7.89%6.44%4.85%3.42%1.96%
Grindavik28.04%19.67%13.88%10.13%7.77%6.27%4.95%3.80%2.79%1.48%0.86%0.36%
IB Bolungarvik2.39%3.70%4.79%6.92%7.76%8.80%10.44%11.09%12.00%12.29%11.21%8.61%
KA Akureyri2.63%4.25%5.31%7.18%8.03%9.18%10.65%11.53%11.50%11.26%10.83%7.65%
Leiknir Reykjavik4.43%6.38%7.37%8.96%9.44%9.63%10.56%10.14%10.58%9.41%7.92%5.18%
Selfoss17.46%15.77%13.71%12.22%10.63%8.55%6.36%5.64%4.13%2.73%1.99%0.81%
Tindastoll1.58%2.99%4.32%6.01%6.66%8.37%9.43%10.40%12.18%12.88%13.68%11.50%
Throttur Reykjavik0.92%1.92%2.87%3.86%5.07%6.62%7.76%9.44%12.00%15.45%17.93%16.16%
KF Fjallabyggar9.59%11.58%11.67%10.93%10.62%10.39%8.85%8.29%6.81%5.38%3.77%2.12%
IF Volsungur0.09%0.32%0.66%1.02%1.75%2.54%4.27%6.17%8.43%13.03%20.64%41.08%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.82%
Slight Edge
43.94%18.94%37.12%
Elo Value
Home Edge
67 Elo
0.015 goals per Elo point
023.73200
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.35+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.1
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
6%
Fjolnir, 6th of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.87 * Some Luck: 4.87 to 7.31 * Lucky: 7.31 to 9.74 * Wild Swing: 9.74 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.99 * Close: 1.99 to 2.99 * Off: 2.99 to 3.99 * Way Off: 3.99 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.04 * A Surprise: 1.04 to 1.67 * Several Surprises: 1.67 to 2.29 * Many Surprises: 2.29 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
9.57 points
Lucky
06.0915
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.67
Close
02.495
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.81%
Fjolnir
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
IF Volsungur
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.74
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
70%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Strong Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Very Frequent
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.22
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.61
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.22
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
As Expected
0%30%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Shaky Favorites
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.57
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.01
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.091
Well Within Noise
00.1450.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Grindavik 47.71% 51.07% 1.22%
Selfoss 33.23% 63.97% 2.80%
Vikingur Reykjavik 31.11% 65.75% 3.14%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 21.37% 73.25% 5.38%
KF Fjallabyggar 21.17% 72.94% 5.89%
Fjolnir 13.81% 77.01% 9.18%
Leiknir Reykjavik 10.81% 76.09% 13.10%
KA Akureyri 6.88% 74.64% 18.48%
IB Bolungarvik 6.09% 74.09% 19.82%
Tindastoll 4.57% 70.25% 25.18%
Throttur Reykjavik 2.84% 63.07% 34.09%
IF Volsungur 0.41% 37.87% 61.72%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2013-05-09 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1070 1066 42.4% 23.2% 34.4% -9.4 0
2013-05-09 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1066 1070 34.4% 23.2% 42.4% +9.4 3
2013-05-09 IB Bolungarvik L 0-1 1101 1031 51.0% 22.7% 26.3% -11.7 0
2013-05-09 @ IF Volsungur W 1-0 1031 1101 26.3% 22.7% 51.0% +11.7 3
2013-05-09 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1135 1059 51.7% 22.7% 25.6% -11.8 0
2013-05-09 @ Selfoss W 1-0 1059 1135 25.6% 22.7% 51.7% +11.9 3
2013-05-09 KF Fjallabyggar W 2-1 1073 1146 31.5% 23.1% 45.3% +10.0 3
2013-05-09 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 1146 1073 45.3% 23.1% 31.5% -10.0 0
2013-05-09 Tindastoll D 1-1 1054 1064 40.2% 23.3% 36.5% -0.2 1
2013-05-09 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1064 1054 36.5% 23.3% 40.2% +0.2 1
2013-05-09 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1107 1092 43.8% 23.2% 33.0% -9.7 0
2013-05-09 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1092 1107 33.0% 23.2% 43.8% +9.7 3
2013-05-17 Grindavik L 0-1 1075 1098 38.5% 23.3% 38.2% -9.3 3
2013-05-17 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1098 1075 38.2% 23.3% 38.5% +9.3 3
2013-05-17 Selfoss L 1-2 1102 1123 38.7% 23.3% 38.0% -8.8 3
2013-05-17 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1123 1102 38.0% 23.3% 38.7% +8.8 3
2013-05-18 Fjolnir D 1-1 1071 1083 40.0% 23.3% 36.7% -0.2 4
2013-05-18 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1083 1071 36.7% 23.3% 40.0% +0.2 4
2013-05-18 IF Volsungur D 1-1 1064 1089 38.2% 23.3% 38.5% +0.0 2
2013-05-18 @ Tindastoll D 1-1 1089 1064 38.5% 23.3% 38.2% -0.0 1
2013-05-18 KF Fjallabyggar D 1-1 1054 1136 30.4% 23.1% 46.6% +0.8 2
2013-05-18 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1136 1054 46.6% 23.1% 30.4% -0.8 1
2013-05-18 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1042 1061 39.1% 23.3% 37.5% +8.6 6
2013-05-18 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-2 1061 1042 37.5% 23.3% 39.1% -8.6 0
2013-05-23 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1132 1066 50.5% 22.8% 26.7% -10.4 3
2013-05-23 @ Selfoss W 3-2 1066 1132 26.7% 22.8% 50.5% +10.4 6
2013-05-23 Tindastoll L 1-2 1052 1064 40.0% 23.3% 36.8% -9.0 0
2013-05-23 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1064 1052 36.8% 23.3% 40.0% +9.0 5
2013-05-24 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-5 1083 1093 40.3% 23.3% 36.4% -19.2 4
2013-05-24 @ Fjolnir W 5-2 1093 1083 36.4% 23.3% 40.3% +19.2 6
2013-05-25 IB Bolungarvik W 6-1 1107 1051 49.2% 22.9% 27.9% +26.2 6
2013-05-25 @ Grindavik L 1-6 1051 1107 27.9% 22.9% 49.2% -26.2 6
2013-05-25 KA Akureyri W 4-1 1136 1071 50.4% 22.8% 26.8% +16.0 4
2013-05-25 @ KF Fjallabyggar L 1-4 1071 1136 26.8% 22.8% 50.4% -16.0 4
2013-05-25 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-3 1089 1054 46.4% 23.1% 30.5% -29.6 1
2013-05-25 @ IF Volsungur W 3-0 1054 1089 30.5% 23.1% 46.4% +29.6 5
2013-06-01 Fjolnir W 1-0 1076 1064 43.5% 23.2% 33.3% +8.3 9
2013-06-01 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1064 1076 33.3% 23.2% 43.5% -8.3 4
2013-06-01 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1084 1055 45.8% 23.1% 31.1% +7.4 8
2013-06-01 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1055 1084 31.1% 23.1% 45.8% -7.4 4
2013-06-01 KF Fjallabyggar D 1-1 1112 1152 36.1% 23.3% 40.6% +0.2 7
2013-06-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1152 1112 40.6% 23.3% 36.1% -0.2 5
2013-06-01 Selfoss W 4-3 1025 1121 28.7% 23.0% 48.4% +9.8 9
2013-06-01 @ IB Bolungarvik L 3-4 1121 1025 48.4% 23.0% 28.7% -9.8 3
2013-06-01 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-3 1059 1043 44.0% 23.2% 32.8% -16.8 1
2013-06-01 @ IF Volsungur W 3-1 1043 1059 32.8% 23.2% 44.0% +16.8 3
2013-06-02 Tindastoll W 4-1 1133 1074 49.7% 22.9% 27.4% +16.3 9
2013-06-02 @ Grindavik L 1-4 1074 1133 27.4% 22.9% 49.7% -16.3 5
2013-06-06 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1060 1091 37.2% 23.3% 39.5% -9.0 3
2013-06-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1091 1060 39.5% 23.3% 37.2% +9.0 11
2013-06-08 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1151 1084 50.6% 22.8% 26.6% -1.2 6
2013-06-08 @ KF Fjallabyggar D 1-1 1084 1151 26.6% 22.8% 50.6% +1.2 10
2013-06-08 IB Bolungarvik L 2-4 1055 1035 44.6% 23.2% 32.2% -15.2 4
2013-06-08 @ Fjolnir W 4-2 1035 1055 32.2% 23.2% 44.6% +15.2 12
2013-06-08 IF Volsungur W 4-2 1149 1042 55.4% 22.2% 22.4% +8.7 12
2013-06-08 @ Grindavik L 2-4 1042 1149 22.4% 22.2% 55.4% -8.7 1
2013-06-08 Tindastoll W 1-0 1112 1057 49.0% 22.9% 28.0% +7.2 6
2013-06-08 @ Selfoss L 0-1 1057 1112 28.0% 22.9% 49.0% -7.2 5
2013-06-08 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1047 1113 32.6% 23.2% 44.2% -8.1 4
2013-06-08 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1113 1047 44.2% 23.2% 32.6% +8.2 10
2013-06-13 Grindavik L 0-3 1051 1158 27.4% 22.9% 49.7% -19.4 3
2013-06-13 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1158 1051 49.7% 22.9% 27.4% +19.4 15
2013-06-13 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1100 1121 38.8% 23.3% 37.9% -0.0 12
2013-06-13 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 2-2 1121 1100 37.9% 23.3% 38.8% +0.0 11
2013-06-14 Fjolnir L 0-1 1050 1040 43.1% 23.2% 33.7% -10.2 5
2013-06-14 @ Tindastoll W 1-0 1040 1050 33.7% 23.2% 43.1% +10.2 7
2013-06-14 KA Akureyri W 4-2 1086 1039 48.0% 23.0% 29.0% +10.8 13
2013-06-14 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 2-4 1039 1086 29.0% 23.0% 48.0% -10.8 4
2013-06-15 Selfoss D 0-0 1034 1119 30.1% 23.1% 46.9% +0.9 2
2013-06-15 @ IF Volsungur D 0-0 1119 1034 46.9% 23.1% 30.1% -0.9 7
2013-06-16 KF Fjallabyggar W 2-1 1050 1150 28.2% 22.9% 48.9% +10.6 15
2013-06-16 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-2 1150 1050 48.9% 22.9% 28.2% -10.6 6
2013-06-22 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1121 1096 45.1% 23.2% 31.8% -0.5 12
2013-06-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1096 1121 31.8% 23.2% 45.1% +0.5 14
2013-06-22 IB Bolungarvik W 1-0 1028 1060 37.1% 23.3% 39.6% +9.5 7
2013-06-22 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1060 1028 39.6% 23.3% 37.1% -9.5 15
2013-06-22 IF Volsungur W 2-1 1050 1035 43.9% 23.2% 32.9% +7.8 10
2013-06-22 @ Fjolnir L 1-2 1035 1050 32.9% 23.2% 43.9% -7.8 2
2013-06-22 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-2 1178 1100 51.9% 22.7% 25.5% +5.9 18
2013-06-22 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1100 1178 25.5% 22.7% 51.9% -5.9 12
2013-06-22 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1118 1031 53.0% 22.5% 24.4% -1.1 8
2013-06-22 @ Selfoss D 2-2 1031 1118 24.4% 22.5% 53.0% +1.1 4
2013-06-22 Tindastoll D 1-1 1140 1040 54.6% 22.3% 23.1% -1.6 7
2013-06-22 @ KF Fjallabyggar D 1-1 1040 1140 23.1% 22.3% 54.6% +1.6 6
2013-06-27 Fjolnir D 0-0 1033 1058 38.1% 23.3% 38.6% +0.0 5
2013-06-27 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1058 1033 38.6% 23.3% 38.1% -0.0 11
2013-06-27 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1094 1097 41.4% 23.3% 35.3% -0.3 13
2013-06-27 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1097 1094 35.3% 23.3% 41.4% +0.3 15
2013-06-27 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1041 1038 42.2% 23.2% 34.5% -0.3 7
2013-06-27 @ Tindastoll D 2-2 1038 1041 34.5% 23.2% 42.2% +0.3 8
2013-06-27 Selfoss L 1-3 1183 1117 50.6% 22.8% 26.6% -19.0 18
2013-06-27 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1117 1183 26.6% 22.8% 50.6% +19.0 11
2013-06-28 KF Fjallabyggar L 1-2 1027 1138 27.0% 22.8% 50.2% -6.6 2
2013-06-28 @ IF Volsungur W 2-1 1138 1027 50.2% 22.8% 27.0% +6.6 10
2013-06-29 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1051 1120 32.1% 23.2% 44.7% -15.2 15
2013-06-29 @ IB Bolungarvik W 2-0 1120 1051 44.7% 23.2% 32.1% +15.2 15
2013-07-03 Leiknir Reykjavik W 4-2 1136 1094 47.4% 23.0% 29.6% +11.0 14
2013-07-03 @ Selfoss L 2-4 1094 1136 29.6% 23.0% 47.4% -11.0 13
2013-07-04 Grindavik D 0-0 1058 1164 27.5% 22.9% 49.6% +1.2 12
2013-07-04 @ Fjolnir D 0-0 1164 1058 49.6% 22.9% 27.5% -1.2 19
2013-07-04 IF Volsungur W 2-0 1038 1020 44.1% 23.2% 32.7% +15.4 11
2013-07-04 @ KA Akureyri L 0-2 1020 1038 32.7% 23.2% 44.1% -15.4 2
2013-07-04 Tindastoll D 1-1 1135 1041 54.0% 22.4% 23.6% -1.6 16
2013-07-04 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1041 1135 23.6% 22.4% 54.0% +1.6 8
2013-07-06 IB Bolungarvik W 4-3 1097 1036 49.9% 22.8% 27.2% +6.1 18
2013-07-06 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 3-4 1036 1097 27.2% 22.8% 49.9% -6.1 15
2013-07-06 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1145 1033 56.0% 22.1% 21.9% -12.7 10
2013-07-06 @ KF Fjallabyggar W 1-0 1033 1145 21.9% 22.1% 56.0% +12.7 8
2013-07-11 Fjolnir L 1-2 1147 1059 53.2% 22.5% 24.3% -11.4 14
2013-07-11 @ Selfoss W 2-1 1059 1147 24.3% 22.5% 53.2% +11.4 15
2013-07-11 KF Fjallabyggar W 2-0 1163 1132 46.0% 23.1% 30.9% +14.7 22
2013-07-11 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1132 1163 30.9% 23.1% 46.0% -14.7 10
2013-07-12 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1043 1103 33.2% 23.2% 43.6% +9.7 11
2013-07-12 @ Tindastoll L 1-2 1103 1043 43.6% 23.2% 33.2% -9.7 18
2013-07-12 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1045 1053 40.6% 23.3% 36.1% -9.7 8
2013-07-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1053 1045 36.1% 23.3% 40.6% +9.7 14
2013-07-12 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1005 1134 25.0% 22.6% 52.4% -10.7 2
2013-07-12 @ IF Volsungur W 3-1 1134 1005 52.4% 22.6% 25.0% +10.7 19
2013-07-13 IB Bolungarvik W 3-2 1083 1030 48.9% 22.9% 28.2% +6.5 16
2013-07-13 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 2-3 1030 1083 28.2% 22.9% 48.9% -6.5 15
2013-07-16 Grindavik D 2-2 1063 1178 26.5% 22.8% 50.7% +0.9 15
2013-07-16 @ KA Akureyri D 2-2 1178 1063 50.7% 22.8% 26.5% -0.9 23
2013-07-16 IF Volsungur W 5-1 1094 994 54.5% 22.4% 23.1% +18.2 21
2013-07-16 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 994 1094 23.1% 22.4% 54.5% -18.2 2
2013-07-16 Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1071 1090 39.0% 23.3% 37.7% +9.1 18
2013-07-16 @ Fjolnir L 0-1 1090 1071 37.7% 23.3% 39.0% -9.1 16
2013-07-16 Selfoss W 2-1 1117 1135 39.1% 23.3% 37.6% +8.6 13
2013-07-16 @ KF Fjallabyggar L 1-2 1135 1117 37.6% 23.3% 39.1% -8.6 14
2013-07-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1145 1036 55.6% 22.2% 22.1% +9.6 22
2013-07-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1036 1145 22.1% 22.2% 55.6% -9.6 8
2013-07-16 Tindastoll W 2-0 1023 1052 37.6% 23.3% 39.1% +17.7 18
2013-07-16 @ IB Bolungarvik L 0-2 1052 1023 39.1% 23.3% 37.6% -17.7 11
2013-07-19 Grindavik W 4-2 1154 1177 38.5% 23.3% 38.2% +13.5 25
2013-07-19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-4 1177 1154 38.2% 23.3% 38.5% -13.5 23
2013-07-19 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1112 1026 53.0% 22.5% 24.5% -11.4 21
2013-07-19 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1026 1112 24.5% 22.5% 53.0% +11.4 11
2013-07-20 Fjolnir L 0-1 1126 1080 48.0% 23.0% 29.0% -11.1 13
2013-07-20 @ KF Fjallabyggar W 1-0 1080 1126 29.0% 23.0% 48.0% +11.1 21
2013-07-20 IF Volsungur W 4-1 1041 976 50.4% 22.8% 26.8% +16.0 21
2013-07-20 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-4 976 1041 26.8% 22.8% 50.4% -16.0 2
2013-07-20 Leiknir Reykjavik W 4-3 1035 1080 35.2% 23.3% 41.5% +8.6 14
2013-07-20 @ Tindastoll L 3-4 1080 1035 41.5% 23.3% 35.2% -8.6 16
2013-07-20 Selfoss W 4-3 1064 1127 32.9% 23.2% 43.9% +9.0 18
2013-07-20 @ KA Akureyri L 3-4 1127 1064 43.9% 23.2% 32.9% -9.0 14
2013-07-25 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1164 1101 50.1% 22.8% 27.0% -1.2 24
2013-07-25 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1101 1164 27.0% 22.8% 50.1% +1.2 22
2013-07-25 Vikingur Reykjavik W 6-1 1118 1168 34.7% 23.3% 42.1% +36.4 17
2013-07-25 @ Selfoss L 1-6 1168 1118 42.1% 23.3% 34.7% -36.4 25
2013-07-27 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1091 1073 44.2% 23.2% 32.6% -10.4 21
2013-07-27 @ Fjolnir W 1-0 1073 1091 32.6% 23.2% 44.2% +10.4 21
2013-07-27 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1115 1072 47.5% 23.0% 29.4% -11.0 13
2013-07-27 @ KF Fjallabyggar W 1-0 1072 1115 29.4% 23.0% 47.5% +11.0 19
2013-07-27 Tindastoll L 2-3 960 1043 30.3% 23.1% 46.6% -6.9 2
2013-07-27 @ IF Volsungur W 3-2 1043 960 46.6% 23.1% 30.3% +6.9 17
2013-07-28 IB Bolungarvik W 3-2 1037 1057 38.9% 23.3% 37.8% +8.2 14
2013-07-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-3 1057 1037 37.8% 23.3% 38.9% -8.2 21
2013-07-31 Fjolnir L 0-2 1131 1080 48.6% 22.9% 28.5% -21.1 25
2013-07-31 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1080 1131 28.5% 22.9% 48.6% +21.2 24
2013-07-31 IF Volsungur W 3-0 1083 953 58.0% 21.8% 20.2% +14.8 22
2013-07-31 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-3 953 1083 20.2% 21.8% 58.0% -14.8 2
2013-07-31 KF Fjallabyggar D 1-1 1083 1104 38.8% 23.3% 37.9% -0.0 22
2013-07-31 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1104 1083 37.9% 23.3% 38.8% +0.0 14
2013-07-31 Selfoss W 2-1 1102 1154 34.3% 23.2% 42.4% +9.5 25
2013-07-31 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1154 1102 42.4% 23.2% 34.3% -9.5 17
2013-08-01 Grindavik W 3-1 1049 1162 26.7% 22.8% 50.5% +19.0 24
2013-08-01 @ IB Bolungarvik L 1-3 1162 1049 50.5% 22.8% 26.7% -18.9 24
2013-08-01 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1050 1046 42.4% 23.2% 34.4% +23.3 20
2013-08-01 @ Tindastoll L 0-3 1046 1050 34.4% 23.2% 42.4% -23.3 14
2013-08-08 Grindavik L 0-2 1073 1143 32.0% 23.2% 44.8% -15.2 20
2013-08-08 @ Tindastoll W 2-0 1143 1073 44.8% 23.2% 32.0% +15.1 27
2013-08-08 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1102 1111 40.4% 23.3% 36.3% +20.5 27
2013-08-08 @ Fjolnir L 1-4 1111 1102 36.3% 23.3% 40.4% -20.5 25
2013-08-08 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1104 1110 40.8% 23.3% 35.9% -0.2 15
2013-08-08 @ KF Fjallabyggar D 2-2 1110 1104 35.9% 23.3% 40.8% +0.2 26
2013-08-10 IF Volsungur W 3-0 1022 938 52.7% 22.6% 24.7% +17.7 17
2013-08-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-3 938 1022 24.7% 22.6% 52.7% -17.8 2
2013-08-10 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1083 1098 39.7% 23.3% 37.0% -9.5 22
2013-08-10 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1098 1083 37.0% 23.3% 39.7% +9.5 25
2013-08-11 IB Bolungarvik L 0-2 1145 1068 51.9% 22.7% 25.5% -22.4 17
2013-08-11 @ Selfoss W 2-0 1068 1145 25.5% 22.7% 51.9% +22.4 27
2013-08-16 Fjolnir L 1-2 1090 1122 37.2% 23.3% 39.5% -8.5 27
2013-08-16 @ IB Bolungarvik W 2-1 1122 1090 39.5% 23.3% 37.2% +8.5 30
2013-08-16 Grindavik L 1-5 921 1159 15.4% 20.6% 64.1% -12.5 2
2013-08-16 @ IF Volsungur W 5-1 1159 921 64.1% 20.6% 15.4% +12.5 30
2013-08-16 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1110 1074 46.7% 23.1% 30.2% -0.9 27
2013-08-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1074 1110 30.2% 23.1% 46.7% +0.9 23
2013-08-16 KF Fjallabyggar W 4-0 1091 1104 39.9% 23.3% 36.8% +32.1 28
2013-08-16 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1104 1091 36.8% 23.3% 39.9% -32.1 15
2013-08-16 Selfoss D 1-1 1058 1122 32.8% 23.2% 44.0% +0.6 21
2013-08-16 @ Tindastoll D 1-1 1122 1058 44.0% 23.2% 32.8% -0.5 18
2013-08-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1107 1040 50.7% 22.8% 26.6% +18.9 28
2013-08-16 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-3 1040 1107 26.6% 22.8% 50.7% -18.9 17
2013-08-20 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1075 1123 34.9% 23.3% 41.8% -8.1 23
2013-08-20 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1123 1075 41.8% 23.3% 34.9% +8.1 31
2013-08-20 Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1109 1126 39.4% 23.3% 37.3% +9.1 30
2013-08-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1126 1109 37.3% 23.3% 39.4% -9.1 28
2013-08-20 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1171 1021 60.1% 21.4% 18.5% +4.7 33
2013-08-20 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1021 1171 18.5% 21.4% 60.1% -4.7 17
2013-08-20 Tindastoll D 2-2 1131 1059 51.2% 22.7% 26.0% -1.0 31
2013-08-20 @ Fjolnir D 2-2 1059 1131 26.0% 22.7% 51.2% +1.0 22
2013-08-21 IB Bolungarvik L 0-3 1071 1082 40.3% 23.3% 36.4% -26.4 15
2013-08-21 @ KF Fjallabyggar W 3-0 1082 1071 36.4% 23.3% 40.3% +26.3 30
2013-08-21 IF Volsungur W 6-1 1122 908 66.1% 20.0% 13.9% +13.7 21
2013-08-21 @ Selfoss L 1-6 908 1122 13.9% 20.0% 66.1% -13.8 2
2013-08-24 Fjolnir L 1-3 894 1130 15.6% 20.6% 63.8% -6.9 2
2013-08-24 @ IF Volsungur W 3-1 1130 894 63.8% 20.6% 15.6% +6.9 34
2013-08-24 Grindavik L 1-2 1117 1176 33.5% 23.2% 43.3% -7.9 28
2013-08-24 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1176 1117 43.3% 23.2% 33.5% +7.8 36
2013-08-24 KF Fjallabyggar W 3-1 1060 1045 43.8% 23.2% 33.0% +13.5 25
2013-08-24 @ Tindastoll L 1-3 1045 1060 33.0% 23.2% 43.8% -13.4 15
2013-08-24 Selfoss L 0-1 1016 1136 26.1% 22.7% 51.2% -6.8 17
2013-08-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1136 1016 51.2% 22.7% 26.1% +6.8 24
2013-08-24 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1131 1119 43.4% 23.2% 33.3% +7.8 34
2013-08-24 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1119 1131 33.3% 23.2% 43.4% -7.8 30
2013-08-25 KA Akureyri W 4-2 1108 1067 47.4% 23.0% 29.6% +11.0 33
2013-08-25 @ IB Bolungarvik L 2-4 1067 1108 29.6% 23.0% 47.4% -11.0 23
2013-08-29 Grindavik W 3-0 1142 1184 35.9% 23.3% 40.9% +26.6 27
2013-08-29 @ Selfoss L 0-3 1184 1142 40.9% 23.3% 35.9% -26.6 36
2013-08-29 Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1139 1109 45.8% 23.1% 31.1% -0.7 35
2013-08-29 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1109 1139 31.1% 23.1% 45.8% +0.7 29
2013-08-29 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-3 1137 1010 57.6% 21.9% 20.5% -21.3 34
2013-08-29 @ Fjolnir W 3-1 1010 1137 20.5% 21.9% 57.6% +21.3 20
2013-08-29 Tindastoll W 5-1 1056 1073 39.2% 23.3% 37.5% +27.1 26
2013-08-29 @ KA Akureyri L 1-5 1073 1056 37.5% 23.3% 39.2% -27.1 25
2013-08-30 IF Volsungur W 3-1 1032 888 59.5% 21.6% 18.9% +8.3 18
2013-08-30 @ KF Fjallabyggar L 1-3 888 1032 18.9% 21.6% 59.5% -8.3 2
2013-08-31 IB Bolungarvik W 3-0 1111 1119 40.6% 23.3% 36.2% +24.2 33
2013-08-31 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 1119 1111 36.2% 23.3% 40.6% -24.2 33
2013-09-05 KA Akureyri L 0-6 879 1083 18.0% 21.3% 60.7% -25.4 2
2013-09-05 @ IF Volsungur W 6-0 1083 879 60.7% 21.3% 18.0% +25.4 29
2013-09-07 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1095 1138 35.6% 23.3% 41.1% +0.2 34
2013-09-07 @ IB Bolungarvik D 2-2 1138 1095 41.1% 23.3% 35.6% -0.2 36
2013-09-07 KF Fjallabyggar W 2-1 1031 1040 40.5% 23.3% 36.3% +8.4 23
2013-09-07 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1040 1031 36.3% 23.3% 40.5% -8.4 18
2013-09-07 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 1046 1135 29.6% 23.0% 47.3% -20.7 25
2013-09-07 @ Tindastoll W 3-0 1135 1046 47.3% 23.0% 29.6% +20.7 36
2013-09-09 Fjolnir L 0-4 1157 1115 47.4% 23.0% 29.6% -39.3 36
2013-09-09 @ Grindavik W 4-0 1115 1157 29.6% 23.0% 47.4% +39.3 37
2013-09-09 Selfoss W 3-2 1110 1169 33.5% 23.2% 43.3% +9.1 32
2013-09-09 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 2-3 1169 1110 43.3% 23.2% 33.5% -9.1 27
2013-09-14 Grindavik L 0-7 1032 1118 30.0% 23.1% 47.0% -46.2 18
2013-09-14 @ KF Fjallabyggar W 7-0 1118 1032 47.0% 23.1% 30.0% +46.2 39
2013-09-14 IF Volsungur W 16-0 1156 854 73.2% 17.6% 9.2% +33.1 39
2013-09-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-16 854 1156 9.2% 17.6% 73.2% -33.1 2
2013-09-14 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-2 1095 1119 38.3% 23.3% 38.4% +8.3 37
2013-09-14 @ IB Bolungarvik L 2-3 1119 1095 38.4% 23.3% 38.3% -8.3 32
2013-09-14 Selfoss W 3-0 1155 1160 41.0% 23.3% 35.7% +24.0 40
2013-09-14 @ Fjolnir L 0-3 1160 1155 35.7% 23.3% 41.0% -24.0 27
2013-09-14 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1108 1039 50.8% 22.8% 26.4% +11.2 32
2013-09-14 @ KA Akureyri L 1-3 1039 1108 26.4% 22.8% 50.8% -11.2 23
2013-09-14 Tindastoll W 3-1 1138 1025 56.0% 22.1% 21.8% +9.5 39
2013-09-14 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1025 1138 21.8% 22.1% 56.0% -9.5 25
2013-09-21 Fjolnir L 1-3 1111 1179 32.3% 23.2% 44.5% -13.2 32
2013-09-21 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-1 1179 1111 44.5% 23.2% 32.3% +13.2 43
2013-09-21 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-7 821 1147 10.3% 18.2% 71.5% -16.7 2
2013-09-21 @ IF Volsungur W 7-0 1147 821 71.5% 18.2% 10.3% +16.7 42
2013-09-21 IB Bolungarvik L 0-2 1016 1103 29.8% 23.0% 47.1% -14.3 25
2013-09-21 @ Tindastoll W 2-0 1103 1016 47.1% 23.0% 29.8% +14.3 40
2013-09-21 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1164 1119 47.8% 23.0% 29.2% +7.0 42
2013-09-21 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1119 1164 29.2% 23.0% 47.8% -7.0 32
2013-09-21 KF Fjallabyggar L 2-3 1136 985 60.1% 21.4% 18.4% -12.1 27
2013-09-21 @ Selfoss W 3-2 985 1136 18.4% 21.4% 60.1% +12.1 21
2013-09-21 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1028 1189 21.8% 22.1% 56.1% -5.4 23
2013-09-21 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1189 1028 56.1% 22.1% 21.8% +5.5 42

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2013-09-21 18.43% KF Fjallabyggar 985 3 @ Selfoss 1136 2
2 2013-08-29 20.46% Throttur Reykjavik 1010 3 @ Fjolnir 1137 1
3 2013-07-06 21.86% Throttur Reykjavik 1033 1 @ KF Fjallabyggar 1145 0
4 2013-07-11 24.33% Fjolnir 1059 2 @ Selfoss 1147 1
5 2013-07-19 24.50% Throttur Reykjavik 1026 2 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1112 1
6 2013-08-11 25.48% IB Bolungarvik 1068 2 @ Selfoss 1145 0
7 2013-05-09 25.59% KA Akureyri 1059 1 @ Selfoss 1135 0
8 2013-05-09 26.27% IB Bolungarvik 1031 1 @ IF Volsungur 1101 0
9 2013-06-27 26.63% Selfoss 1117 3 @ Grindavik 1183 1
10 2013-05-23 26.69% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1066 3 @ Selfoss 1132 2
11 2013-08-01 26.69% @ IB Bolungarvik 1049 3 Grindavik 1162 1
12 2013-06-16 28.22% @ IB Bolungarvik 1050 2 KF Fjallabyggar 1150 1
13 2013-07-31 28.47% Fjolnir 1080 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1131 0
14 2013-06-01 28.68% @ IB Bolungarvik 1025 4 Selfoss 1121 3
15 2013-07-20 29.05% Fjolnir 1080 1 @ KF Fjallabyggar 1126 0
16 2013-07-27 29.45% Leiknir Reykjavik 1072 1 @ KF Fjallabyggar 1115 0
17 2013-09-09 29.59% Fjolnir 1115 4 @ Grindavik 1157 0
18 2013-05-25 30.48% Leiknir Reykjavik 1054 3 @ IF Volsungur 1089 0
19 2013-05-09 31.52% @ Fjolnir 1073 2 KF Fjallabyggar 1146 1
20 2013-06-08 32.24% IB Bolungarvik 1035 4 @ Fjolnir 1055 2
21 2013-07-27 32.60% KA Akureyri 1073 1 @ Fjolnir 1091 0
22 2013-06-01 32.81% Throttur Reykjavik 1043 3 @ IF Volsungur 1059 1
23 2013-07-20 32.94% @ KA Akureyri 1064 4 Selfoss 1127 3
24 2013-05-09 32.98% Vikingur Reykjavik 1092 2 @ Grindavik 1107 1
25 2013-07-12 33.23% @ Tindastoll 1043 2 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1103 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-09-14 46.17 Grindavik 7 1118 46.99% @ KF Fjallabyggar 0 1032 29.96% 23.05%
2 2013-09-09 39.28 Fjolnir 4 1115 29.59% @ Grindavik 0 1157 47.38% 23.03%
3 2013-07-25 36.35 @ Selfoss 6 1118 34.68% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1168 42.07% 23.26%
4 2013-09-14 33.12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 16 1156 73.17% IF Volsungur 0 854 9.25% 17.58%
5 2013-08-16 32.09 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 4 1091 39.90% KF Fjallabyggar 0 1104 36.80% 23.30%
6 2013-05-25 29.57 Leiknir Reykjavik 3 1054 30.48% @ IF Volsungur 0 1089 46.44% 23.08%
7 2013-08-29 27.13 @ KA Akureyri 5 1056 39.21% Tindastoll 1 1073 37.49% 23.30%
8 2013-08-29 26.64 @ Selfoss 3 1142 35.86% Grindavik 0 1184 40.86% 23.28%
9 2013-08-21 26.35 IB Bolungarvik 3 1082 36.42% @ KF Fjallabyggar 0 1071 40.29% 23.29%
10 2013-05-25 26.20 @ Grindavik 6 1107 49.23% IB Bolungarvik 1 1051 27.87% 22.90%
11 2013-09-05 25.43 KA Akureyri 6 1083 60.70% @ IF Volsungur 0 879 17.97% 21.33%
12 2013-08-31 24.23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1111 40.56% IB Bolungarvik 0 1119 36.16% 23.29%
13 2013-09-14 24.01 @ Fjolnir 3 1155 40.99% Selfoss 0 1160 35.73% 23.28%
14 2013-08-01 23.30 @ Tindastoll 3 1050 42.36% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1046 34.39% 23.25%
15 2013-08-11 22.38 IB Bolungarvik 2 1068 25.48% @ Selfoss 0 1145 51.87% 22.66%
16 2013-08-29 21.29 Throttur Reykjavik 3 1010 20.46% @ Fjolnir 1 1137 57.65% 21.89%
17 2013-07-31 21.15 Fjolnir 2 1080 28.47% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1131 48.59% 22.95%
18 2013-09-07 20.66 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1135 47.35% @ Tindastoll 0 1046 29.62% 23.03%
19 2013-08-08 20.51 @ Fjolnir 4 1102 40.38% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1 1111 36.33% 23.29%
20 2013-06-13 19.37 Grindavik 3 1158 49.74% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1051 27.40% 22.85%
21 2013-05-24 19.23 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 1093 36.44% @ Fjolnir 2 1083 40.27% 23.29%
22 2013-06-27 18.97 Selfoss 3 1117 26.63% @ Grindavik 1 1183 50.59% 22.78%
23 2013-08-01 18.95 @ IB Bolungarvik 3 1049 26.69% Grindavik 1 1162 50.53% 22.79%
24 2013-08-16 18.87 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 3 1107 50.67% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1040 26.56% 22.77%
25 2013-07-16 18.22 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 5 1094 54.54% IF Volsungur 1 994 23.11% 22.35%