Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1963
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1963 Úrvalsdeild Season

30 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

15 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

4.85 points above expected

15 points · 10.15 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IBA Akureyri

3.94 points below expected

6 points · 9.94 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 10 7 1 2 15 27 16 +11 10.2 +4.85
2 IA Akranes 10 6 1 3 13 25 17 +8 10.1 +2.95
3 Valur Reykjavik 10 4 2 4 10 20 20 0 10.1 -0.05
4 Fram Reykjavik 10 4 1 5 9 11 20 -9 9.9 -0.95
5 Keflavik IF 10 3 1 6 7 15 19 -4 9.9 -2.87
6 IBA Akureyri 10 2 2 6 6 16 22 -6 9.9 -3.94

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 989 15 10.15 +4.85 97.5% 0 6 8 10 12 15 20
IA Akranes 982 13 10.05 +2.95 89.7% 0 6 8 10 12 14 20
Valur Reykjavik 972 10 10.05 -0.05 56.4% 1 6 8 10 12 15 20
Keflavik IF 968 7 9.87 -2.87 19.4% 0 5 8 10 12 14 20
Fram Reykjavik 963 9 9.95 -0.95 43.4% 0 6 8 10 12 14 20
IBA Akureyri 961 6 9.94 -3.94 10.5% 0 5 8 10 12 14 20

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR IA IA KR KI VR
Fram Reykjavik —
0-1-1
2.86
2-0-0
2.85
0-0-2
2.84
1-0-1
2.90
1-0-1
2.84
IA Akranes
1-1-0
2.88
 —
2-0-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
2.89
IBA Akureyri
0-0-2
2.89
0-0-2
2.85
 —
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
2.85
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.90
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
2.95
 —
2-0-0
2.91
1-0-1
2.89
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.86
0-0-2
2.83
 —
0-1-1
2.80
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.85
0-1-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.85
1-1-0
2.94
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%5.00%3.33%——13.33%
15.00%3.33%11.67%8.33%——28.33%
25.00%11.67%6.67%1.67%3.33%5.00%33.33%
33.33%8.33%1.67%———13.33%
4——3.33%—3.33%—6.67%
5+——5.00%———5.00%
Total13.33%28.33%33.33%13.33%6.67%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.90
Mean allowed1.90
StdDev scored1.40
StdDev allowed1.40
Mean total goals/game3.80
Correlation (home vs away score)0.080
Sample size (games)30
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——20.00%10.00%——30.00%
130.00%—————30.00%
2—10.00%10.00%——20.00%40.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total30.00%10.00%30.00%10.00%—20.00%100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.10
Mean allowed2.00
StdDev scored0.88
StdDev allowed1.89
Mean total goals/game3.10
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.269
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1——20.00%10.00%——30.00%
2—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
3—30.00%————30.00%
4——10.00%———10.00%
5+——10.00%———10.00%
Total—40.00%50.00%10.00%——100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.50
Mean allowed1.70
StdDev scored1.35
StdDev allowed0.67
Mean total goals/game4.20
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.304
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
1——20.00%20.00%——40.00%
2—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
3———————
4——10.00%—10.00%—20.00%
5+———————
Total—20.00%50.00%20.00%10.00%—100%

IBA Akureyri — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.60
Mean allowed2.20
StdDev scored1.43
StdDev allowed0.92
Mean total goals/game3.80
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.406
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———10.00%——10.00%
1——10.00%———10.00%
210.00%20.00%10.00%———40.00%
3—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
4———————
5+——20.00%———20.00%
Total10.00%30.00%50.00%10.00%——100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.70
Mean allowed1.60
StdDev scored2.00
StdDev allowed0.84
Mean total goals/game4.30
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.013
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%————10.00%
1—10.00%10.00%10.00%——30.00%
220.00%10.00%—10.00%20.00%—60.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total20.00%30.00%10.00%20.00%20.00%—100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.50
Mean allowed1.90
StdDev scored0.71
StdDev allowed1.52
Mean total goals/game3.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.155
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%————10.00%
1—10.00%10.00%10.00%——30.00%
2—10.00%———10.00%20.00%
320.00%10.00%————30.00%
4————10.00%—10.00%
5+———————
Total20.00%40.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.00
Mean allowed2.00
StdDev scored1.25
StdDev allowed2.16
Mean total goals/game4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.041
Games played10

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 15 10.2 +4.85
2 IA Akranes 13 10.1 +2.95
3 Valur Reykjavik 10 10.1 -0.05
4 Fram Reykjavik 9 9.9 -0.95
5 Keflavik IF 7 9.9 -2.87

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IBA Akureyri 6 9.9 -3.94
2 Keflavik IF 7 9.9 -2.87
3 Fram Reykjavik 9 9.9 -0.95
4 Valur Reykjavik 10 10.1 -0.05
5 IA Akranes 13 10.1 +2.95

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 5 Jun 30 – Aug 25 1 in 139
2 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 27 – Jun 1 1 in 7
3 Fram Reykjavik 3 May 23 – Jun 14 1 in 4
4 IBA Akureyri 1 Jun 3 – Jun 3 1 in 4
5 IA Akranes 2 May 23 – May 26 1 in 3

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBA Akureyri 4 Jul 14 – Aug 25 1 in 238
2 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 21 – Aug 25 1 in 10
3 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 24 – Jul 6 1 in 10
4 IA Akranes 2 Jun 1 – Jun 16 1 in 7
5 Valur Reykjavik 2 Aug 11 – Aug 18 1 in 6

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 8 Jun 20 – Aug 25 1 in 66
2 IBA Akureyri 4 Jun 3 – Jun 30 1 in 25
3 IA Akranes 3 Jun 23 – Jul 6 1 in 5
4 Keflavik IF 2 Aug 1 – Aug 11 1 in 4
5 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 27 – Jun 1 1 in 4

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBA Akureyri 4 Jul 14 – Aug 25 1 in 45
2 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 14 – Jun 30 1 in 5
3 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jun 20 – Jun 29 1 in 5
4 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 24 – Jul 6 1 in 4
5 IA Akranes 2 Jun 1 – Jun 16 1 in 4

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456
KR Reykjavik21.77%18.45%17.04%15.80%14.44%12.50%
IA Akranes18.99%18.15%17.91%16.13%15.53%13.29%
Valur Reykjavik16.94%17.65%17.23%16.65%16.24%15.29%
Fram Reykjavik13.27%14.61%15.74%17.32%18.28%20.78%
Keflavik IF15.08%15.41%15.60%17.01%17.72%19.18%
IBA Akureyri13.95%15.73%16.48%17.09%17.79%18.96%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KR Reykjavik 87.5% 12.5%
IA Akranes 86.7% 13.3%
Valur Reykjavik 84.7% 15.3%
IBA Akureyri 81.0% 19.0%
Keflavik IF 80.8% 19.2%
Fram Reykjavik 79.2% 20.8%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1963-05-23 IBA Akureyri W 1-0 971 972 61.8% 13.1% 25.1% +1.1 3
1963-05-23 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 972 971 25.1% 13.1% 61.8% -1.1 0
1963-05-23 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 973 976 61.5% 13.2% 25.3% +1.0 3
1963-05-23 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 976 973 25.3% 13.2% 61.5% -1.0 0
1963-05-26 Keflavik IF W 1-0 972 972 61.9% 13.1% 24.9% +1.1 6
1963-05-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 972 972 24.9% 13.1% 61.9% -1.1 0
1963-05-26 IBA Akureyri W 3-1 974 971 62.2% 13.1% 24.7% +1.8 6
1963-05-26 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 971 974 24.7% 13.1% 62.2% -1.7 0
1963-05-27 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 972 975 61.5% 13.2% 25.4% +3.0 3
1963-05-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 975 972 25.4% 13.2% 61.5% -3.0 0
1963-06-01 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 976 975 62.0% 13.1% 24.9% -2.3 6
1963-06-01 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 975 976 24.9% 13.1% 62.0% +2.3 6
1963-06-03 IBA Akureyri L 2-4 971 969 62.0% 13.1% 24.8% -3.6 0
1963-06-03 @ Keflavik IF W 4-2 969 971 24.8% 13.1% 62.0% +3.6 3
1963-06-14 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 973 977 61.5% 13.2% 25.4% +1.1 9
1963-06-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 977 973 25.4% 13.2% 61.5% -1.1 6
1963-06-16 IA Akranes W 2-1 967 973 61.1% 13.2% 25.7% +1.1 3
1963-06-16 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 973 967 25.7% 13.2% 61.1% -1.0 6
1963-06-20 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 972 975 61.5% 13.2% 25.3% +2.1 3
1963-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 975 972 25.3% 13.2% 61.5% -2.1 9
1963-06-23 Fram Reykjavik W 5-2 972 973 61.8% 13.1% 25.0% +2.2 9
1963-06-23 @ IA Akranes L 2-5 973 972 25.0% 13.1% 61.8% -2.2 9
1963-06-23 IBA Akureyri D 4-4 976 973 62.2% 13.1% 24.7% -0.2 7
1963-06-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 4-4 973 976 24.7% 13.1% 62.2% +0.2 4
1963-06-24 Keflavik IF W 3-2 974 968 62.5% 13.1% 24.4% +1.0 6
1963-06-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 968 974 24.4% 13.1% 62.5% -1.0 3
1963-06-28 IBA Akureyri D 2-2 975 973 62.1% 13.1% 24.8% -0.3 7
1963-06-28 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 973 975 24.8% 13.1% 62.1% +0.3 5
1963-06-29 IA Akranes D 2-2 970 975 61.4% 13.2% 25.4% -0.3 10
1963-06-29 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 975 970 25.4% 13.2% 61.4% +0.2 10
1963-06-30 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 973 976 61.6% 13.2% 25.2% +1.0 8
1963-06-30 @ IBA Akureyri L 1-2 976 973 25.2% 13.2% 61.6% -1.0 7
1963-06-30 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 967 975 61.0% 13.2% 25.8% -2.3 3
1963-06-30 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 975 967 25.8% 13.2% 61.0% +2.3 10
1963-07-06 Keflavik IF W 4-2 975 965 63.0% 13.1% 24.0% +1.5 13
1963-07-06 @ IA Akranes L 2-4 965 975 24.0% 13.1% 63.0% -1.5 3
1963-07-14 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 974 970 62.4% 13.1% 24.6% -2.3 8
1963-07-14 @ IBA Akureyri W 2-1 970 974 24.6% 13.1% 62.4% +2.3 13
1963-07-14 IA Akranes W 3-1 977 976 61.9% 13.1% 24.9% +1.8 13
1963-07-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 976 977 24.9% 13.1% 61.9% -1.8 13
1963-07-21 IA Akranes L 1-3 972 975 61.6% 13.2% 25.3% -4.0 8
1963-07-21 @ IBA Akureyri W 3-1 975 972 25.3% 13.2% 61.6% +4.0 16
1963-07-21 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 963 972 60.8% 13.2% 26.0% +2.1 6
1963-07-21 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 972 963 26.0% 13.2% 60.8% -2.1 13
1963-07-28 Keflavik IF W 3-1 975 966 62.9% 13.1% 24.1% +1.7 10
1963-07-28 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 966 975 24.1% 13.1% 62.9% -1.7 6
1963-08-01 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 964 976 60.4% 13.2% 26.4% -0.3 7
1963-08-01 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 976 964 26.4% 13.2% 60.4% +0.3 11
1963-08-11 Valur Reykjavik W 7-2 979 977 62.1% 13.1% 24.8% +3.3 16
1963-08-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-7 977 979 24.8% 13.1% 62.1% -3.3 11
1963-08-11 Keflavik IF L 0-2 968 964 62.4% 13.1% 24.5% -4.7 8
1963-08-11 @ IBA Akureyri W 2-0 964 968 24.5% 13.1% 62.4% +4.7 10
1963-08-18 IA Akranes L 1-3 973 979 61.3% 13.2% 25.6% -4.0 11
1963-08-18 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 979 973 25.6% 13.2% 61.3% +4.0 19
1963-08-19 KR Reykjavik L 2-5 970 982 60.5% 13.2% 26.3% -4.8 13
1963-08-19 @ Fram Reykjavik W 5-2 982 970 26.3% 13.2% 60.5% +4.8 19
1963-08-25 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 963 987 59.1% 13.3% 27.6% -2.2 8
1963-08-25 @ IBA Akureyri W 2-1 987 963 27.6% 13.3% 59.1% +2.2 22
1963-08-25 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 969 966 62.3% 13.1% 24.6% +2.9 14
1963-08-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 966 969 24.6% 13.1% 62.3% -2.9 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1963-08-11 24.53% Keflavik IF 964 2 @ IBA Akureyri 968 0
2 1963-07-14 24.56% Fram Reykjavik 970 2 @ IBA Akureyri 974 1
3 1963-06-03 24.84% IBA Akureyri 969 4 @ Keflavik IF 971 2
4 1963-06-01 24.89% Valur Reykjavik 975 2 @ IA Akranes 976 1
5 1963-07-21 25.27% IA Akranes 975 3 @ IBA Akureyri 972 1
6 1963-08-18 25.55% IA Akranes 979 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 973 1
7 1963-06-30 25.79% KR Reykjavik 975 2 @ Keflavik IF 967 1
8 1963-08-19 26.26% KR Reykjavik 982 5 @ Fram Reykjavik 970 2
9 1963-08-25 27.57% KR Reykjavik 987 2 @ IBA Akureyri 963 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-08-19 4.82 KR Reykjavik 5 982 26.26% @ Fram Reykjavik 2 970 60.51%
2 1963-08-11 4.67 Keflavik IF 2 964 24.53% @ IBA Akureyri 0 968 62.37%
3 1963-07-21 4.00 IA Akranes 3 975 25.27% @ IBA Akureyri 1 972 61.57%
4 1963-08-18 3.97 IA Akranes 3 979 25.55% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 973 61.26%
5 1963-06-03 3.60 IBA Akureyri 4 969 24.84% @ Keflavik IF 2 971 62.03%
6 1963-08-11 3.29 @ KR Reykjavik 7 979 62.09% Valur Reykjavik 2 977 24.79%
7 1963-05-27 3.01 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 972 61.49% KR Reykjavik 0 975 25.35%
8 1963-08-25 2.92 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 969 62.30% Fram Reykjavik 0 966 24.59%
9 1963-07-14 2.34 Fram Reykjavik 2 970 24.56% @ IBA Akureyri 1 974 62.35%
10 1963-06-01 2.32 Valur Reykjavik 2 975 24.89% @ IA Akranes 1 976 61.99%
11 1963-06-30 2.29 KR Reykjavik 2 975 25.79% @ Keflavik IF 1 967 61.01%
12 1963-08-25 2.22 KR Reykjavik 2 987 27.57% @ IBA Akureyri 1 963 59.11%
13 1963-06-23 2.17 @ IA Akranes 5 972 61.84% Fram Reykjavik 2 973 25.02%
14 1963-07-21 2.12 @ Keflavik IF 2 963 60.82% Fram Reykjavik 0 972 25.97%
15 1963-06-20 2.07 @ KR Reykjavik 2 972 61.54% Fram Reykjavik 0 975 25.30%
16 1963-07-14 1.76 @ KR Reykjavik 3 977 61.92% IA Akranes 1 976 24.94%
17 1963-05-26 1.75 @ IA Akranes 3 974 62.20% IBA Akureyri 1 971 24.69%
18 1963-07-28 1.71 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 975 62.89% Keflavik IF 1 966 24.06%
19 1963-07-06 1.52 @ IA Akranes 4 975 62.97% Keflavik IF 2 965 23.98%
20 1963-06-14 1.10 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 973 61.46% Valur Reykjavik 0 977 25.37%
21 1963-05-23 1.09 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 971 61.77% IBA Akureyri 0 972 25.08%
22 1963-05-26 1.08 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 972 61.92% Keflavik IF 0 972 24.94%
23 1963-06-16 1.05 @ Keflavik IF 2 967 61.14% IA Akranes 1 973 25.67%
24 1963-05-23 1.04 @ IA Akranes 2 973 61.52% KR Reykjavik 1 976 25.32%
25 1963-06-30 1.03 @ IBA Akureyri 2 973 61.59% Valur Reykjavik 1 976 25.25%