2009 Úrvalsdeild Season

132 games

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

51 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 2008.0

Relegated

Fjolnir

15 pts

Throttur Reykjavik · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fylkir Reykjavik

11.63 points above expected

43 points · 31.37 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fjolnir

10.67 points below expected

15 points · 25.67 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur Champion 22 16 3 3 51 57 21 +36 43.05 +7.95
2 KR Reykjavik 22 15 3 4 48 58 31 +27 38.56 +9.44
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 22 13 4 5 43 41 26 +15 31.37 +11.63
4 Fram Reykjavik 22 10 4 8 34 40 32 +8 34.42 -0.42
5 Breidablik 22 10 4 8 34 38 33 +5 30.45 +3.55
6 Keflavik IF 22 8 9 5 33 38 37 +1 34.97 -1.97
7 Stjarnan 22 7 5 10 26 45 44 +1 32.52 -6.52
8 Valur Reykjavik 22 7 4 11 25 26 43 -17 28.63 -3.63
9 Grindavik 22 6 4 12 22 34 44 -10 25.19 -3.19
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 6 4 12 22 24 45 -21 23.93 -1.93
11 Throttur Reykjavik Relegated 22 4 4 14 16 23 48 -25 19.54 -3.54
12 Fjolnir Relegated 22 3 6 13 15 27 47 -20 25.67 -10.67

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1525 51 43.05 +7.95 92.8% 18 33 39 43 47 52 62
KR Reykjavik 1508 48 38.56 +9.44 94.7% 16 28 34 39 43 49 60
Fram Reykjavik 1417 34 34.42 -0.42 51.1% 14 25 30 34 39 44 56
Fylkir Reykjavik 1410 43 31.37 +11.63 97.7% 9 22 27 31 36 41 56
Breidablik 1393 34 30.45 +3.55 74.4% 7 20 26 30 35 40 52
Keflavik IF 1350 33 34.97 -1.97 41.1% 13 25 31 35 39 45 59
Stjarnan 1305 26 32.52 -6.52 16.0% 10 22 28 33 37 43 59
Grindavik 1290 22 25.19 -3.19 32.6% 4 16 21 25 29 35 48
Valur Reykjavik 1244 25 28.63 -3.63 31.0% 8 19 24 29 33 39 51
Fjolnir 1223 15 25.67 -10.67 3.7% 4 16 22 25 30 36 46
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1223 22 23.93 -1.93 40.8% 5 15 20 24 28 34 47
Throttur Reykjavik 1190 16 19.54 -3.54 30.2% 2 11 16 19 23 29 44

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FJO FR FR GRI IV KR KI STJ TR VR
Breidablik
0-0-2
1.88
1-1-0
3.57
0-2-0
2.37
1-0-1
2.53
2-0-0
3.38
1-0-1
3.26
0-0-2
2.12
1-1-0
2.21
2-0-0
2.59
1-0-1
3.69
1-0-1
2.88
FH Hafnarfjordur
2-0-0
3.73
2-0-0
4.30
2-0-0
3.36
1-1-0
3.87
1-0-1
4.32
2-0-0
4.37
1-0-1
3.31
0-1-1
3.36
2-0-0
3.61
1-1-0
4.65
2-0-0
4.20
Fjolnir
0-1-1
2.00
0-0-2
1.31
0-0-2
1.89
0-1-1
2.13
1-1-0
3.13
0-0-2
3.07
0-0-2
2.11
0-1-1
2.09
1-1-0
1.87
0-1-1
3.58
1-0-1
2.50
Fram Reykjavik
0-2-0
3.20
0-0-2
2.21
2-0-0
3.70
0-1-1
3.01
2-0-0
3.43
1-1-0
3.57
1-0-1
2.23
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.95
1-0-1
4.19
1-0-1
3.37
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.04
0-1-1
1.72
1-1-0
3.45
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
3.34
2-0-0
3.70
1-1-0
2.11
1-0-1
2.23
1-0-1
2.70
2-0-0
4.00
2-0-0
2.57
Grindavik
0-0-2
2.19
1-0-1
1.29
0-1-1
2.44
0-0-2
2.14
1-0-1
2.24
0-1-1
3.01
0-0-2
1.92
0-1-1
2.24
1-0-1
2.25
2-0-0
3.17
1-1-0
2.29
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
2.31
0-0-2
1.25
2-0-0
2.50
0-1-1
2.01
0-0-2
1.88
1-1-0
2.56
0-0-2
1.64
0-1-1
1.86
1-0-1
1.92
1-0-1
3.49
0-1-1
2.52
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.45
1-0-1
2.28
2-0-0
3.47
1-0-1
3.34
0-1-1
3.46
2-0-0
3.66
2-0-0
3.95
2-0-0
3.27
1-1-0
3.38
1-1-0
4.20
1-0-1
4.02
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
3.36
1-1-0
2.22
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.11
1-0-1
3.34
1-1-0
3.33
1-1-0
3.72
0-0-2
2.30
0-2-0
2.84
1-1-0
4.01
1-1-0
3.28
Stjarnan
0-0-2
2.98
0-0-2
1.97
0-1-1
3.71
1-0-1
2.62
1-0-1
2.87
1-0-1
3.32
1-0-1
3.66
0-1-1
2.20
0-2-0
2.73
2-0-0
3.45
1-1-0
3.05
Throttur Reykjavik
1-0-1
1.89
0-1-1
0.99
1-1-0
1.99
1-0-1
1.42
0-0-2
1.60
0-0-2
2.40
1-0-1
2.08
0-1-1
1.40
0-1-1
1.58
0-0-2
2.13
0-0-2
1.95
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.68
0-0-2
1.41
1-0-1
3.06
1-0-1
2.20
0-0-2
3.00
0-1-1
3.28
1-1-0
3.05
1-0-1
1.57
0-1-1
2.29
0-1-1
2.52
2-0-0
3.63

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.78 +8.9
Allowed 0.91 -12.8
Differential 0.93 +5.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.79%5.68%3.79%4.92%1.14%1.52%20.83%
15.68%9.09%6.82%6.06%1.52%1.89%31.06%
23.79%6.82%4.55%3.41%1.14%0.38%20.08%
34.92%6.06%3.41%2.27%1.14%0.38%18.18%
41.14%1.52%1.14%1.14%0.76%5.68%
5+1.52%1.89%0.38%0.38%4.17%
Total20.83%31.06%20.08%18.18%5.68%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.71 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.40 2.11
CV 0.82 0.82
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
113.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
313.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total36.36%22.73%9.09%18.18%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.50 +0.23
SD 1.20 1.50 1.80
CV 0.70 1.00
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
14.55%4.55%
29.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
313.64%9.09%22.73%
44.55%9.09%13.64%
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total40.91%36.36%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.59 0.95 +1.64
SD 1.53 1.09 2.13
CV 0.59 1.14
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
113.64%13.64%31.82%4.55%63.64%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
4
5+
Total9.09%18.18%27.27%40.91%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 2.14 -0.91
SD 0.87 1.08 1.44
CV 0.71 0.51
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
19.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%13.64%
34.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%27.27%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%40.91%22.73%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.45 +0.36
SD 1.40 1.10 1.87
CV 0.77 0.76
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%
19.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
29.09%13.64%9.09%9.09%40.91%
34.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total27.27%36.36%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.18 +0.68
SD 1.08 0.96 1.21
CV 0.58 0.81
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%27.27%
118.18%13.64%31.82%
24.55%9.09%13.64%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total4.55%40.91%13.64%31.82%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.00 -0.45
SD 1.44 1.15 2.02
CV 0.93 0.58
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%18.18%4.55%40.91%
19.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
313.64%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total9.09%36.36%18.18%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 2.05 -0.95
SD 1.23 1.50 2.10
CV 1.13 0.73
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
29.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
Total27.27%31.82%22.73%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.64 1.41 +1.23
SD 1.71 1.26 1.93
CV 0.65 0.89
Max 7 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
118.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
218.18%18.18%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%18.18%31.82%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.68 +0.05
SD 1.49 1.46 2.08
CV 0.86 0.87
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
113.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%40.91%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
39.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total18.18%36.36%9.09%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 2.00 +0.05
SD 1.56 1.83 2.59
CV 0.76 0.91
Max 6 7 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
14.55%4.55%18.18%4.55%13.64%45.45%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total18.18%22.73%27.27%9.09%4.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.18 -1.14
SD 1.05 1.82 2.27
CV 1.00 0.83
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%13.64%4.55%36.36%
19.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total13.64%31.82%18.18%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.95 -0.77
SD 1.18 1.43 1.90
CV 1.00 0.73
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 43 31.37 +11.63
2 KR Reykjavik 48 38.56 +9.44
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 51 43.05 +7.95
4 Breidablik 34 30.45 +3.55
5 Fram Reykjavik 34 34.42 -0.42

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fjolnir 15 25.67 -10.67
2 Stjarnan 26 32.52 -6.52
3 Valur Reykjavik 25 28.63 -3.63
4 Throttur Reykjavik 16 19.54 -3.54
5 Grindavik 22 25.19 -3.19

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 11 May 14 – Jul 9 1 in 1,054
2 Grindavik 3 Aug 6 – Aug 22 1 in 61
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jul 23 – Aug 23 1 in 53
4 KR Reykjavik 6 Aug 22 – Sep 26 1 in 35
5 Valur Reykjavik 4 May 28 – Jun 22 1 in 28

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fjolnir 5 May 28 – Jun 28 1 in 64
2 Breidablik 3 Jul 20 – Jul 26 1 in 21
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 May 10 – May 23 1 in 14
4 Stjarnan 3 Jul 26 – Aug 9 1 in 14
5 Keflavik IF 2 Aug 6 – Aug 9 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 14 May 14 – Aug 6 1 in 45
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 12 – Aug 23 1 in 37
3 Grindavik 5 Jul 19 – Aug 22 1 in 32
4 Breidablik 5 Aug 6 – Aug 31 1 in 22
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 7 Aug 9 – Sep 26 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 9 Jul 26 – Sep 26 1 in 80
2 Fjolnir 9 Jul 27 – Sep 26 1 in 26
3 Keflavik IF 6 Jul 27 – Aug 29 1 in 25
4 Fram Reykjavik 6 May 14 – Jun 14 1 in 23
5 Grindavik 6 Aug 26 – Sep 26 1 in 15

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
FH Hafnarfjordur54.09%22.21%11.34%5.38%3.21%1.76%1.08%0.49%0.26%0.12%0.03%0.03%
KR Reykjavik20.39%26.01%17.66%12.63%8.65%5.57%3.95%2.25%1.71%0.78%0.35%0.05%
Fylkir Reykjavik2.89%7.03%10.25%11.81%12.66%12.98%11.84%10.77%8.17%6.00%3.80%1.80%
Fram Reykjavik6.63%12.84%15.24%14.91%13.99%11.96%8.79%6.44%4.61%2.49%1.48%0.62%
Breidablik2.05%5.25%8.06%10.61%11.97%12.66%12.61%10.80%9.92%8.20%5.27%2.60%
Keflavik IF8.36%13.26%15.72%15.75%12.23%10.98%8.48%6.14%4.35%2.76%1.52%0.45%
Stjarnan3.82%8.08%11.75%13.15%13.63%12.68%11.38%9.48%6.97%5.13%2.67%1.26%
Valur Reykjavik0.98%3.11%4.65%6.89%9.05%10.41%12.71%14.14%12.98%11.46%8.79%4.83%
Grindavik0.25%0.87%1.94%2.97%5.01%6.93%9.14%12.54%15.19%16.65%16.88%11.63%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar0.18%0.48%0.96%2.17%3.28%5.25%7.65%10.79%13.56%17.01%20.94%17.73%
Throttur Reykjavik0.02%0.09%0.21%0.35%0.87%1.65%2.66%4.53%7.57%12.41%21.45%48.19%
Fjolnir0.34%0.77%2.22%3.38%5.45%7.17%9.71%11.63%14.71%16.99%16.82%10.81%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.88%
Slight Edge
46.21%20.45%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
150 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
045.00400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.28 goals
Neutral
-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.9
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
54%
FH Hafnarfjordur, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Photo Finish
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.78 * Some Luck: 4.78 to 7.16 * Lucky: 7.16 to 9.55 * Wild Swing: 9.55 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.54 * Close: 1.54 to 2.31 * Off: 2.31 to 3.08 * Way Off: 3.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.92 * A Surprise: 0.92 to 1.47 * Several Surprises: 1.47 to 2.02 * Many Surprises: 2.02 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.46 points
Some Luck
05.9715
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
01.934
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.74%
Fylkir Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
3.67%
Fjolnir
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.69
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
73%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Strong Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Very Frequent
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.32
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.16
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.54
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Chalky
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.85
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.18
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.072
Well Within Noise
00.1390.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.94% 0.06%
KR Reykjavik 99.60% 0.40%
Keflavik IF 98.03% 1.97%
Fram Reykjavik 97.90% 2.10%
Stjarnan 96.07% 3.93%
Fylkir Reykjavik 94.40% 5.60%
Breidablik 92.13% 7.87%
Valur Reykjavik 86.38% 13.62%
Fjolnir 72.37% 27.63%
Grindavik 71.49% 28.51%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 61.33% 38.67%
Throttur Reykjavik 30.36% 69.64%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2009-05-10 Fjolnir W 2-1 1383 1343 50.8% 21.4% 27.9% +7.6 3
2009-05-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1343 1383 27.9% 21.4% 50.8% -7.6 0
2009-05-10 Grindavik W 3-1 1301 1317 43.3% 21.6% 35.0% +15.8 3
2009-05-10 @ Stjarnan L 1-3 1317 1301 35.0% 21.6% 43.3% -15.8 0
2009-05-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1367 1303 53.7% 21.1% 25.1% +13.8 3
2009-05-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1303 1367 25.1% 21.1% 53.7% -13.8 0
2009-05-10 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1348 1274 54.8% 21.1% 24.1% +6.7 3
2009-05-10 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1274 1348 24.1% 21.1% 54.8% -6.7 0
2009-05-10 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1286 1360 35.1% 21.7% 43.2% +11.5 3
2009-05-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1360 1286 43.2% 21.7% 35.1% -11.4 0
2009-05-11 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1392 1405 43.6% 21.6% 34.8% +9.6 3
2009-05-11 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1405 1392 34.8% 21.6% 43.6% -9.6 0
2009-05-13 Breidablik L 0-1 1289 1355 36.2% 21.7% 42.2% -9.9 0
2009-05-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1355 1289 42.2% 21.7% 36.2% +9.9 6
2009-05-14 Fjolnir W 3-1 1349 1335 47.3% 21.5% 31.2% +14.4 3
2009-05-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1335 1349 31.2% 21.5% 47.3% -14.4 0
2009-05-14 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1396 1381 47.4% 21.5% 31.1% +8.3 3
2009-05-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1381 1396 31.1% 21.5% 47.4% -8.3 3
2009-05-14 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1298 1401 31.2% 21.5% 47.2% +23.2 6
2009-05-14 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1401 1298 47.2% 21.5% 31.2% -23.2 3
2009-05-14 KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1301 1391 33.0% 21.6% 45.4% -33.0 0
2009-05-14 @ Grindavik W 4-0 1391 1301 45.4% 21.6% 33.0% +33.0 6
2009-05-14 Stjarnan L 0-6 1268 1317 38.5% 21.7% 39.8% -54.7 0
2009-05-14 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 6-0 1317 1268 39.8% 21.7% 38.5% +54.7 6
2009-05-17 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1372 1279 57.0% 20.8% 22.2% +18.0 9
2009-05-17 @ Stjarnan L 0-3 1279 1372 22.2% 20.8% 57.0% -18.0 0
2009-05-17 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1424 1213 68.2% 18.9% 12.9% -3.8 7
2009-05-17 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1213 1424 12.9% 18.9% 68.2% +3.8 1
2009-05-18 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1365 1404 40.0% 21.7% 38.3% -9.6 6
2009-05-18 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1404 1365 38.3% 21.7% 40.0% +9.6 6
2009-05-18 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1373 1321 52.1% 21.3% 26.6% -1.7 4
2009-05-18 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1321 1373 26.6% 21.3% 52.1% +1.6 7
2009-05-18 Grindavik W 3-2 1321 1268 52.3% 21.3% 26.5% +6.9 3
2009-05-18 @ Fjolnir L 2-3 1268 1321 26.5% 21.3% 52.3% -6.9 0
2009-05-18 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1378 1363 47.4% 21.5% 31.0% +24.0 6
2009-05-18 @ Keflavik IF L 0-3 1363 1378 31.0% 21.5% 47.4% -24.0 3
2009-05-23 Fjolnir D 1-1 1217 1328 30.3% 21.5% 48.2% +1.0 2
2009-05-23 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1328 1217 48.2% 21.5% 30.3% -1.0 4
2009-05-23 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1402 1371 49.5% 21.4% 29.0% +8.3 9
2009-05-23 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1371 1402 29.0% 21.4% 49.5% -8.3 4
2009-05-23 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1261 1420 24.6% 21.1% 54.3% -7.2 0
2009-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1420 1261 54.3% 21.1% 24.6% +7.2 10
2009-05-23 Stjarnan W 5-1 1413 1390 48.6% 21.5% 29.9% +25.4 9
2009-05-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 1390 1413 29.9% 21.5% 48.6% -25.4 9
2009-05-24 Breidablik W 3-1 1323 1355 41.0% 21.7% 37.4% +16.6 10
2009-05-24 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1355 1323 37.4% 21.7% 41.0% -16.6 6
2009-05-25 Grindavik D 1-1 1339 1261 55.3% 21.0% 23.7% -1.8 4
2009-05-25 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1261 1339 23.7% 21.0% 55.3% +1.8 1
2009-05-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1427 1439 43.9% 21.6% 34.5% -10.9 10
2009-05-28 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1439 1427 34.5% 21.6% 43.9% +10.9 12
2009-05-28 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1364 1339 48.8% 21.5% 29.8% +8.0 12
2009-05-28 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1339 1364 29.8% 21.5% 48.8% -8.0 10
2009-05-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1327 1254 54.7% 21.1% 24.2% -22.9 4
2009-05-28 @ Fjolnir W 3-1 1254 1327 24.2% 21.1% 54.7% +22.9 3
2009-05-28 Keflavik IF D 4-4 1339 1410 35.4% 21.7% 42.9% +0.2 7
2009-05-28 @ Breidablik D 4-4 1410 1339 42.9% 21.7% 35.4% -0.2 10
2009-05-28 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1263 1218 51.3% 21.3% 27.3% +7.4 4
2009-05-28 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1218 1263 27.3% 21.3% 51.3% -7.4 2
2009-05-28 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1363 1337 48.9% 21.5% 29.7% -12.0 4
2009-05-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1337 1363 29.7% 21.5% 48.9% +12.0 7
2009-06-01 Breidablik D 1-1 1351 1339 47.1% 21.5% 31.4% -0.9 5
2009-06-01 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1339 1351 31.4% 21.5% 47.1% +0.9 8
2009-06-01 Fjolnir W 3-0 1450 1304 62.5% 20.1% 17.4% +14.5 15
2009-06-01 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1304 1450 17.4% 20.1% 62.5% -14.5 4
2009-06-01 Grindavik W 3-1 1276 1270 46.3% 21.6% 32.1% +14.8 6
2009-06-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1270 1276 32.1% 21.6% 46.3% -14.8 4
2009-06-01 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1331 1416 33.6% 21.6% 44.8% +0.5 11
2009-06-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1416 1331 44.8% 21.6% 33.6% -0.5 11
2009-06-01 Stjarnan D 1-1 1410 1372 50.4% 21.4% 28.2% -1.3 11
2009-06-01 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1372 1410 28.2% 21.4% 50.4% +1.3 13
2009-06-01 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1349 1210 61.8% 20.2% 18.0% +5.1 10
2009-06-01 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1210 1349 18.0% 20.2% 61.8% -5.1 2
2009-06-13 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1289 1332 39.5% 21.7% 38.8% -17.4 4
2009-06-13 @ Fjolnir W 3-1 1332 1289 38.8% 21.7% 39.5% +17.4 14
2009-06-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1256 1464 19.8% 20.5% 59.7% -16.3 4
2009-06-14 @ Grindavik W 3-0 1464 1256 59.7% 20.5% 19.8% +16.2 18
2009-06-14 Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 1374 1350 48.6% 21.5% 29.9% +19.7 16
2009-06-14 @ Stjarnan L 1-4 1350 1374 29.9% 21.5% 48.6% -19.7 5
2009-06-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1205 1291 33.5% 21.6% 44.9% +11.1 5
2009-06-14 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1291 1205 44.9% 21.6% 33.5% -11.1 6
2009-06-14 Keflavik IF W 4-1 1416 1409 46.4% 21.6% 32.0% +20.8 14
2009-06-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1409 1416 32.0% 21.6% 46.4% -20.8 11
2009-06-15 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1340 1354 43.5% 21.6% 34.9% -11.5 8
2009-06-15 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1354 1340 34.9% 21.6% 43.5% +11.5 13
2009-06-21 Fjolnir W 3-1 1388 1272 59.5% 20.5% 20.0% +9.8 14
2009-06-21 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 1272 1388 20.0% 20.5% 59.5% -9.8 4
2009-06-21 Grindavik L 2-3 1349 1239 58.8% 20.6% 20.6% -13.4 14
2009-06-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1239 1349 20.6% 20.6% 58.8% +13.4 7
2009-06-21 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1330 1437 30.8% 21.5% 47.6% +34.0 8
2009-06-21 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1437 1330 47.6% 21.5% 30.8% -34.0 14
2009-06-21 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-0 1480 1216 72.1% 17.8% 10.0% +10.9 21
2009-06-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1216 1480 10.0% 17.8% 72.1% -10.9 5
2009-06-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1366 1280 56.2% 20.9% 22.9% +12.8 16
2009-06-22 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1280 1366 22.9% 20.9% 56.2% -12.8 6
2009-06-22 Stjarnan W 2-1 1328 1393 36.3% 21.7% 42.0% +10.5 11
2009-06-22 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1393 1328 42.0% 21.7% 36.3% -10.5 16
2009-06-25 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1364 1491 28.3% 21.4% 50.3% -15.3 8
2009-06-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1491 1364 50.3% 21.4% 28.3% +15.3 24
2009-06-25 Grindavik W 2-0 1403 1253 62.8% 20.0% 17.2% +9.8 17
2009-06-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1253 1403 17.2% 20.0% 62.8% -9.8 7
2009-06-25 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1398 1205 66.6% 19.3% 14.1% +3.8 17
2009-06-25 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 1205 1398 14.1% 19.3% 66.6% -3.9 5
2009-06-25 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1383 1379 46.0% 21.6% 32.4% +24.9 19
2009-06-25 @ Stjarnan L 0-3 1379 1383 32.4% 21.6% 46.0% -24.9 16
2009-06-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1267 1507 17.2% 20.1% 62.8% -14.3 6
2009-06-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1507 1267 62.8% 20.1% 17.2% +14.3 27
2009-06-28 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1262 1349 33.3% 21.6% 45.1% -8.8 4
2009-06-28 @ Fjolnir W 2-1 1349 1262 45.1% 21.6% 33.3% +8.8 11
2009-06-28 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1202 1336 27.4% 21.3% 51.2% -7.5 5
2009-06-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1336 1202 51.2% 21.3% 27.4% +7.5 17
2009-06-28 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1243 1402 24.7% 21.1% 54.2% +1.7 8
2009-06-28 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1402 1243 54.2% 21.1% 24.7% -1.7 18
2009-06-29 Breidablik W 3-2 1412 1339 54.8% 21.1% 24.2% +6.3 20
2009-06-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1339 1412 24.2% 21.1% 54.8% -6.3 11
2009-07-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1343 1253 56.7% 20.9% 22.4% +18.2 20
2009-07-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1253 1343 22.4% 20.9% 56.7% -18.2 6
2009-07-02 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-5 1354 1521 23.8% 21.0% 55.2% -30.9 16
2009-07-02 @ Valur Reykjavik W 5-0 1521 1354 55.2% 21.0% 23.8% +30.9 30
2009-07-02 Fjolnir D 0-0 1332 1253 55.4% 21.0% 23.6% -2.1 12
2009-07-02 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1253 1332 23.6% 21.0% 55.4% +2.1 5
2009-07-02 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1408 1419 43.9% 21.6% 34.4% -0.5 20
2009-07-02 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1419 1408 34.4% 21.6% 43.9% +0.5 21
2009-07-09 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1552 1362 66.5% 19.3% 14.2% +3.9 33
2009-07-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1362 1552 14.2% 19.3% 66.5% -3.9 20
2009-07-09 Stjarnan W 3-1 1255 1407 25.4% 21.2% 53.4% +22.4 8
2009-07-09 @ Fjolnir L 1-3 1407 1255 53.4% 21.2% 25.4% -22.4 20
2009-07-11 Valur Reykjavik L 3-4 1419 1323 57.4% 20.8% 21.9% -12.8 21
2009-07-11 @ KR Reykjavik W 4-3 1323 1419 21.9% 20.8% 57.4% +12.8 19
2009-07-12 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1235 1400 24.0% 21.1% 54.9% +1.4 7
2009-07-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1400 1235 54.9% 21.1% 24.0% -1.4 19
2009-07-13 Breidablik L 0-1 1245 1330 33.5% 21.6% 44.9% -9.3 8
2009-07-13 @ Grindavik W 1-0 1330 1245 44.9% 21.6% 33.5% +9.4 15
2009-07-13 Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1194 1358 24.2% 21.1% 54.8% -11.6 5
2009-07-13 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1358 1194 54.8% 21.1% 24.2% +11.6 14
2009-07-18 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1556 1398 63.5% 19.9% 16.6% -2.1 34
2009-07-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1398 1556 16.6% 19.9% 63.5% +2.1 20
2009-07-19 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1278 1406 28.1% 21.4% 50.5% -7.6 8
2009-07-19 @ Fjolnir W 2-1 1406 1278 50.5% 21.4% 28.1% +7.6 24
2009-07-19 Stjarnan W 4-2 1235 1385 25.7% 21.2% 53.1% +19.9 11
2009-07-19 @ Grindavik L 2-4 1385 1235 53.1% 21.2% 25.7% -20.0 20
2009-07-20 Breidablik W 4-0 1183 1340 24.9% 21.1% 54.0% +49.6 8
2009-07-20 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-4 1340 1183 54.0% 21.1% 24.9% -49.6 15
2009-07-20 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1236 1369 27.6% 21.3% 51.1% +1.4 8
2009-07-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1369 1236 51.1% 21.3% 27.6% -1.4 15
2009-07-20 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1336 1358 42.4% 21.7% 35.9% -11.3 19
2009-07-20 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1358 1336 35.9% 21.7% 42.4% +11.3 23
2009-07-23 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1401 1369 49.6% 21.4% 28.9% +8.3 23
2009-07-23 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1369 1401 28.9% 21.4% 49.6% -8.3 23
2009-07-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 3-4 1290 1238 52.2% 21.3% 26.5% -11.8 15
2009-07-23 @ Breidablik W 4-3 1238 1290 26.5% 21.3% 52.2% +11.8 11
2009-07-23 Throttur Reykjavik W 5-1 1365 1232 61.1% 20.3% 18.6% +16.7 23
2009-07-23 @ Stjarnan L 1-5 1232 1365 18.6% 20.3% 61.1% -16.7 8
2009-07-23 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1270 1324 37.8% 21.7% 40.5% +20.5 11
2009-07-23 @ Fjolnir L 0-2 1324 1270 40.5% 21.7% 37.8% -20.5 19
2009-07-26 Breidablik W 2-1 1554 1278 72.9% 17.6% 9.5% +2.7 37
2009-07-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1278 1554 9.5% 17.6% 72.9% -2.7 15
2009-07-26 Stjarnan W 1-0 1249 1381 27.7% 21.3% 51.0% +13.2 14
2009-07-26 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1381 1249 51.0% 21.3% 27.7% -13.2 23
2009-07-27 Fjolnir D 1-1 1255 1291 40.6% 21.7% 37.8% -0.1 12
2009-07-27 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1291 1255 37.8% 21.7% 40.6% +0.2 12
2009-07-27 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1361 1368 44.5% 21.6% 33.9% +8.9 26
2009-07-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1368 1361 33.9% 21.6% 44.5% -8.9 15
2009-07-27 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1304 1409 31.0% 21.5% 47.5% +0.7 20
2009-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1409 1304 47.5% 21.5% 31.0% -0.7 24
2009-07-27 KR Reykjavik L 1-5 1215 1414 20.7% 20.6% 58.7% -18.4 8
2009-07-27 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 5-1 1414 1215 58.7% 20.6% 20.7% +18.4 27
2009-08-05 Throttur Reykjavik L 1-3 1291 1197 57.0% 20.8% 22.1% -23.8 12
2009-08-05 @ Fjolnir W 3-1 1197 1291 22.1% 20.8% 57.0% +23.8 11
2009-08-06 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1368 1556 21.7% 20.8% 57.5% -14.9 23
2009-08-06 @ Stjarnan W 4-1 1556 1368 57.5% 20.8% 21.7% +14.9 40
2009-08-06 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1276 1370 32.4% 21.6% 46.0% +12.1 18
2009-08-06 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1370 1276 46.0% 21.6% 32.4% -12.1 26
2009-08-06 Keflavik IF W 5-0 1359 1408 38.6% 21.7% 39.7% +47.2 18
2009-08-06 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-5 1408 1359 39.7% 21.7% 38.6% -47.2 24
2009-08-06 Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1255 1305 38.5% 21.7% 39.8% +17.5 15
2009-08-06 @ Grindavik L 1-3 1305 1255 39.8% 21.7% 38.5% -17.5 20
2009-08-09 Breidablik L 0-3 1361 1288 54.8% 21.1% 24.2% -38.5 24
2009-08-09 @ Keflavik IF W 3-0 1288 1361 24.2% 21.1% 54.8% +38.5 21
2009-08-09 Fjolnir W 3-1 1262 1267 44.9% 21.6% 33.5% +15.3 17
2009-08-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1267 1262 33.5% 21.6% 44.9% -15.3 12
2009-08-09 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1287 1406 29.2% 21.4% 49.3% -7.9 20
2009-08-09 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1406 1287 49.3% 21.4% 29.2% +7.9 21
2009-08-09 Grindavik L 1-5 1221 1273 38.2% 21.7% 40.1% -30.9 11
2009-08-09 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 5-1 1273 1221 40.1% 21.7% 38.2% +30.9 18
2009-08-09 KR Reykjavik L 2-4 1571 1433 61.7% 20.2% 18.1% -22.9 40
2009-08-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-2 1433 1571 18.1% 20.2% 61.7% +22.9 30
2009-08-09 Stjarnan W 2-1 1358 1353 46.0% 21.6% 32.4% +8.6 29
2009-08-09 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1353 1358 32.4% 21.6% 46.0% -8.6 23
2009-08-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1252 1548 13.2% 19.0% 67.8% -9.3 12
2009-08-15 @ Fjolnir W 4-1 1548 1252 67.8% 19.0% 13.2% +9.3 43
2009-08-16 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1326 1414 33.2% 21.6% 45.2% +0.4 22
2009-08-16 @ Breidablik D 3-3 1414 1326 45.2% 21.6% 33.2% -0.4 22
2009-08-17 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-4 1455 1366 56.6% 20.9% 22.6% -21.1 30
2009-08-17 @ KR Reykjavik W 4-2 1366 1455 22.6% 20.9% 56.6% +21.1 32
2009-08-17 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1345 1323 48.4% 21.5% 30.1% -1.2 24
2009-08-17 @ Stjarnan D 0-0 1323 1345 30.1% 21.5% 48.4% +1.2 25
2009-08-17 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1190 1279 33.0% 21.6% 45.4% -9.2 11
2009-08-17 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1279 1190 45.4% 21.6% 33.0% +9.2 23
2009-08-22 Breidablik L 0-3 1288 1326 40.2% 21.7% 38.2% -29.5 23
2009-08-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1326 1288 38.2% 21.7% 40.2% +29.5 25
2009-08-22 Fjolnir D 2-2 1387 1242 62.3% 20.1% 17.5% -2.0 33
2009-08-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1242 1387 17.5% 20.1% 62.3% +2.0 13
2009-08-22 Grindavik L 0-3 1558 1304 71.4% 18.1% 10.5% -49.1 43
2009-08-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1304 1558 10.5% 18.1% 71.4% +49.1 21
2009-08-22 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1324 1434 30.3% 21.5% 48.2% -8.1 25
2009-08-22 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1434 1324 48.2% 21.5% 30.3% +8.1 33
2009-08-22 Stjarnan W 3-2 1414 1344 54.4% 21.1% 24.5% +6.4 25
2009-08-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 1344 1414 24.5% 21.1% 54.4% -6.4 24
2009-08-23 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1278 1181 57.4% 20.8% 21.8% +6.5 20
2009-08-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1181 1278 21.8% 20.8% 57.4% -6.5 11
2009-08-26 Grindavik W 4-3 1420 1353 54.0% 21.1% 24.8% +6.3 28
2009-08-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 3-4 1353 1420 24.8% 21.1% 54.0% -6.3 21
2009-08-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1442 1284 63.6% 19.9% 16.5% +13.7 36
2009-08-26 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1284 1442 16.5% 19.9% 63.6% -13.7 20
2009-08-29 Keflavik IF D 3-3 1244 1316 35.5% 21.7% 42.9% +0.3 14
2009-08-29 @ Fjolnir D 3-3 1316 1244 42.9% 21.7% 35.5% -0.2 26
2009-08-29 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1270 1259 47.0% 21.6% 31.4% -0.9 21
2009-08-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1259 1270 31.4% 21.6% 47.0% +0.9 24
2009-08-30 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1456 1427 49.4% 21.4% 29.2% +13.6 39
2009-08-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1427 1456 29.2% 21.4% 49.4% -13.6 28
2009-08-31 Breidablik L 1-3 1337 1356 42.9% 21.7% 35.5% -18.6 24
2009-08-31 @ Stjarnan W 3-1 1356 1337 35.5% 21.7% 42.9% +18.6 28
2009-08-31 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1174 1508 11.0% 18.3% 70.7% +4.2 12
2009-08-31 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1508 1174 70.7% 18.3% 11.0% -4.2 44
2009-08-31 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-3 1346 1385 40.0% 21.7% 38.3% -9.6 21
2009-08-31 @ Grindavik W 3-2 1385 1346 38.3% 21.7% 40.0% +9.6 36
2009-09-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1337 1270 54.0% 21.1% 24.9% -1.7 22
2009-09-03 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1270 1337 24.9% 21.1% 54.0% +1.7 22
2009-09-13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-0 1504 1271 69.9% 18.5% 11.6% +15.7 47
2009-09-13 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-5 1271 1504 11.6% 18.5% 69.9% -15.7 22
2009-09-13 Stjarnan D 3-3 1260 1319 37.2% 21.7% 41.1% +0.1 25
2009-09-13 @ Valur Reykjavik D 3-3 1319 1260 41.1% 21.7% 37.2% -0.1 25
2009-09-13 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1395 1178 68.6% 18.8% 12.6% +7.2 39
2009-09-13 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1178 1395 12.6% 18.8% 68.6% -7.2 12
2009-09-15 Fjolnir W 3-1 1413 1245 64.5% 19.7% 15.7% +7.8 31
2009-09-15 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1245 1413 15.7% 19.7% 64.5% -7.8 14
2009-09-16 Grindavik W 1-0 1315 1335 42.7% 21.7% 35.6% +9.8 29
2009-09-16 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1335 1315 35.6% 21.7% 42.7% -9.8 22
2009-09-16 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1375 1470 32.3% 21.6% 46.2% -17.1 28
2009-09-16 @ Breidablik W 2-0 1470 1375 46.2% 21.6% 32.3% +17.1 42
2009-09-19 Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-3 1256 1402 26.0% 21.2% 52.7% -6.8 22
2009-09-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1402 1256 52.7% 21.2% 26.0% +6.8 42
2009-09-20 Breidablik L 0-2 1237 1357 29.1% 21.4% 49.5% -15.7 14
2009-09-20 @ Fjolnir W 2-0 1357 1237 49.5% 21.4% 29.1% +15.7 31
2009-09-20 Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1325 1421 32.2% 21.6% 46.2% -14.8 22
2009-09-20 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1421 1325 46.2% 21.6% 32.2% +14.8 34
2009-09-20 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1171 1325 25.2% 21.2% 53.6% +1.2 13
2009-09-20 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1325 1171 53.6% 21.2% 25.2% -1.2 30
2009-09-20 Stjarnan W 7-3 1487 1318 64.5% 19.7% 15.7% +11.1 45
2009-09-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 3-7 1318 1487 15.7% 19.7% 64.5% -11.1 25
2009-09-20 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1520 1260 71.8% 17.9% 10.2% +5.9 50
2009-09-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1260 1520 10.2% 17.9% 71.8% -5.9 25
2009-09-26 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1409 1526 29.5% 21.5% 49.0% +1.1 43
2009-09-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1526 1409 49.0% 21.5% 29.5% -1.1 51
2009-09-26 Fjolnir D 1-1 1307 1221 56.2% 20.9% 22.9% -2.0 26
2009-09-26 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1221 1307 22.9% 20.9% 56.2% +2.0 15
2009-09-26 Grindavik W 3-0 1373 1310 53.5% 21.2% 25.4% +20.3 34
2009-09-26 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1310 1373 25.4% 21.2% 53.5% -20.3 22
2009-09-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-1 1324 1249 54.9% 21.1% 24.0% +25.8 33
2009-09-26 @ Keflavik IF L 1-6 1249 1324 24.0% 21.1% 54.9% -25.8 22
2009-09-26 KR Reykjavik L 2-5 1254 1498 16.8% 20.0% 63.2% -10.2 25
2009-09-26 @ Valur Reykjavik W 5-2 1498 1254 63.2% 20.0% 16.8% +10.2 48
2009-09-26 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1436 1172 72.1% 17.9% 10.1% -18.1 34
2009-09-26 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1172 1436 10.1% 17.9% 72.1% +18.1 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2009-09-26 10.08% Throttur Reykjavik 1172 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1436 0
2 2009-08-22 10.52% Grindavik 1304 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1558 0
3 2009-08-09 18.05% KR Reykjavik 1433 4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1571 2
4 2009-06-21 20.57% Grindavik 1239 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1349 2
5 2009-07-11 21.85% Valur Reykjavik 1323 4 @ KR Reykjavik 1419 3
6 2009-08-05 22.11% Throttur Reykjavik 1197 3 @ Fjolnir 1291 1
7 2009-08-17 22.55% Fylkir Reykjavik 1366 4 @ KR Reykjavik 1455 2
8 2009-08-09 24.19% Breidablik 1288 3 @ Keflavik IF 1361 0
9 2009-05-28 24.23% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1254 3 @ Fjolnir 1327 1
10 2009-07-20 24.87% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1183 4 Breidablik 1340 0
11 2009-07-09 25.45% @ Fjolnir 1255 3 Stjarnan 1407 1
12 2009-07-19 25.73% @ Grindavik 1235 4 Stjarnan 1385 2
13 2009-07-23 26.49% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1238 4 @ Breidablik 1290 3
14 2009-07-26 27.68% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1249 1 Stjarnan 1381 0
15 2009-05-28 29.67% Valur Reykjavik 1337 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1363 1
16 2009-06-21 30.83% @ Fram Reykjavik 1330 3 KR Reykjavik 1437 0
17 2009-05-14 31.23% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1298 2 Keflavik IF 1401 0
18 2009-08-06 32.40% @ Breidablik 1276 1 Fylkir Reykjavik 1370 0
19 2009-06-14 33.47% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1205 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1291 1
20 2009-05-28 34.49% FH Hafnarfjordur 1439 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1427 1
21 2009-06-15 34.89% Valur Reykjavik 1354 1 @ Breidablik 1340 0
22 2009-05-10 35.14% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1286 1 Valur Reykjavik 1360 0
23 2009-08-31 35.47% Breidablik 1356 3 @ Stjarnan 1337 1
24 2009-07-20 35.92% Fylkir Reykjavik 1358 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1336 0
25 2009-06-22 36.31% @ Breidablik 1328 2 Stjarnan 1393 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-05-14 54.68 Stjarnan 6 1317 39.79% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1268 38.52% 21.69%
2 2009-07-20 49.64 @ Throttur Reykjavik 4 1183 24.87% Breidablik 0 1340 54.01% 21.13%
3 2009-08-22 49.14 Grindavik 3 1304 10.52% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1558 71.41% 18.06%
4 2009-08-06 47.18 @ Fram Reykjavik 5 1359 38.57% Keflavik IF 0 1408 39.74% 21.69%
5 2009-08-09 38.48 Breidablik 3 1288 24.19% @ Keflavik IF 0 1361 54.75% 21.06%
6 2009-06-21 34.03 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1330 30.83% KR Reykjavik 0 1437 47.65% 21.52%
7 2009-05-14 32.98 KR Reykjavik 4 1391 45.44% @ Grindavik 0 1301 32.95% 21.60%
8 2009-08-09 30.91 Grindavik 5 1273 40.13% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1221 38.18% 21.69%
9 2009-07-02 30.87 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1521 55.19% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1354 23.78% 21.02%
10 2009-08-22 29.55 Breidablik 3 1326 38.16% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1288 40.15% 21.69%
11 2009-09-26 25.77 @ Keflavik IF 6 1324 54.94% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1249 24.02% 21.05%
12 2009-05-23 25.38 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1413 48.61% Stjarnan 1 1390 29.91% 21.48%
13 2009-06-25 24.89 @ Stjarnan 3 1383 46.03% Valur Reykjavik 0 1379 32.39% 21.58%
14 2009-05-18 24.03 @ Keflavik IF 3 1378 47.45% Valur Reykjavik 0 1363 31.02% 21.53%
15 2009-08-05 23.83 Throttur Reykjavik 3 1197 22.11% @ Fjolnir 1 1291 57.05% 20.83%
16 2009-05-14 23.25 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1298 31.23% Keflavik IF 0 1401 47.23% 21.54%
17 2009-05-28 22.93 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1254 24.23% @ Fjolnir 1 1327 54.70% 21.07%
18 2009-08-09 22.93 KR Reykjavik 4 1433 18.05% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1571 61.74% 20.22%
19 2009-07-09 22.42 @ Fjolnir 3 1255 25.45% Stjarnan 1 1407 53.37% 21.18%
20 2009-08-17 21.14 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1366 22.55% @ KR Reykjavik 2 1455 56.56% 20.89%
21 2009-06-14 20.79 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1416 46.42% Keflavik IF 1 1409 32.01% 21.57%
22 2009-07-23 20.47 @ Fjolnir 2 1270 37.84% Valur Reykjavik 0 1324 40.47% 21.69%
23 2009-09-26 20.26 @ Breidablik 3 1373 53.48% Grindavik 0 1310 25.35% 21.17%
24 2009-07-19 19.95 @ Grindavik 4 1235 25.73% Stjarnan 2 1385 53.07% 21.20%
25 2009-06-14 19.66 @ Stjarnan 4 1374 48.61% Fram Reykjavik 1 1350 29.91% 21.48%