2011 Úrvalsdeild Season

132 games

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

47 points · 11th Title

Last Title: 2003.0

Relegated

Vikingur Reykjavik

15 pts

Thor Akureyri · 21 pts

Biggest Overachiever

FH Hafnarfjordur

6.61 points above expected

44 points · 37.39 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vikingur Reykjavik

8.07 points below expected

15 points · 23.07 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik Champion 22 13 8 1 47 44 22 +22 40.59 +6.41
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 22 13 5 4 44 48 31 +17 37.39 +6.61
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 12 4 6 40 37 27 +10 33.85 +6.15
4 Stjarnan 22 10 7 5 37 51 35 +16 31.13 +5.87
5 Valur Reykjavik 22 10 6 6 36 28 23 +5 31.90 +4.10
6 Breidablik 22 7 6 9 27 34 42 -8 32.65 -5.65
7 Fylkir Reykjavik 22 7 4 11 25 34 44 -10 28.47 -3.47
8 Keflavik IF 22 7 3 12 24 27 32 -5 29.22 -5.22
9 Fram Reykjavik 22 6 6 10 24 20 28 -8 26.16 -2.16
10 Grindavik 22 5 8 9 23 26 37 -11 24.31 -1.31
11 Thor Akureyri Relegated 22 6 3 13 21 28 41 -13 23.60 -2.60
12 Vikingur Reykjavik Relegated 22 3 6 13 15 24 39 -15 23.07 -8.07

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 1424 47 40.59 +6.41 87.9% 18 31 37 41 45 50 61
FH Hafnarfjordur 1376 44 37.39 +6.61 88.3% 13 28 33 37 42 47 58
Stjarnan 1359 37 31.13 +5.87 85.2% 9 21 27 31 35 41 54
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1309 40 33.85 +6.15 86.2% 12 24 30 34 38 44 56
Valur Reykjavik 1269 36 31.90 +4.10 77.7% 13 22 28 32 36 42 53
Breidablik 1248 27 32.65 -5.65 19.4% 10 23 29 33 37 43 54
Fram Reykjavik 1226 24 26.16 -2.16 39.5% 6 17 22 26 30 36 46
Keflavik IF 1213 24 29.22 -5.22 21.5% 7 19 25 29 33 39 50
Grindavik 1204 23 24.31 -1.31 45.5% 6 15 20 24 28 34 48
Fylkir Reykjavik 1201 25 28.47 -3.47 31.5% 8 19 24 28 32 38 50
Thor Akureyri 1174 21 23.60 -2.60 36.4% 7 15 20 23 27 33 51
Vikingur Reykjavik 1153 15 23.07 -8.07 8.7% 6 14 19 23 27 33 46

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR FR GRI IV KR KI STJ TA VR VR
Breidablik
0-0-2
2.48
0-1-1
3.39
2-0-0
3.04
1-1-0
3.40
0-1-1
2.65
0-0-2
2.41
1-1-0
3.02
1-0-1
2.38
2-0-0
3.36
0-1-1
2.90
0-1-1
3.70
FH Hafnarfjordur
2-0-0
2.99
1-1-0
3.72
1-1-0
3.74
2-0-0
3.82
1-0-1
2.99
1-0-1
2.32
1-1-0
3.38
1-0-1
3.34
1-1-0
3.90
1-0-1
3.22
1-1-0
3.95
Fram Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.09
0-1-1
1.79
0-2-0
2.41
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-2
2.38
0-0-2
1.56
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.37
0-0-2
2.96
1-0-1
2.10
2-0-0
3.03
Fylkir Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.44
0-1-1
1.76
0-2-0
3.06
1-0-1
2.96
1-0-1
2.40
0-0-2
1.59
2-0-0
2.66
0-0-2
2.37
0-1-1
3.30
1-0-1
2.51
2-0-0
3.31
Grindavik
0-1-1
2.08
0-0-2
1.69
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.51
2-0-0
1.70
0-1-1
1.47
1-0-1
2.29
0-1-1
2.09
1-1-0
2.79
0-1-1
2.31
0-2-0
2.87
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
2.48
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
3.08
0-0-2
3.81
0-2-0
2.12
2-0-0
3.05
1-0-1
3.01
1-0-1
3.81
1-1-0
2.82
2-0-0
3.78
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
3.15
2-0-0
3.98
2-0-0
3.95
1-1-0
4.07
0-2-0
3.37
1-1-0
3.73
0-2-0
3.59
2-0-0
4.07
0-2-0
3.70
2-0-0
3.94
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
2.45
0-1-1
2.11
1-0-1
2.94
0-0-2
2.82
1-0-1
3.19
0-0-2
2.44
0-1-1
1.78
2-0-0
2.62
1-0-1
3.21
1-0-1
2.35
1-0-1
3.20
Stjarnan
1-0-1
3.09
1-0-1
2.14
1-1-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.11
1-1-0
3.39
1-0-1
2.47
0-2-0
1.92
0-0-2
2.86
2-0-0
3.03
1-1-0
2.72
0-2-0
3.25
Thor Akureyri
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
1.62
2-0-0
2.52
1-1-0
2.19
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
1.71
0-0-2
1.46
1-0-1
2.27
0-0-2
2.45
0-0-2
1.97
1-0-1
2.68
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.26
1-0-1
3.38
1-0-1
2.97
1-1-0
3.19
0-1-1
2.66
0-2-0
1.80
1-0-1
3.13
0-1-1
2.76
2-0-0
3.52
2-0-0
3.66
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-1-0
1.81
0-1-1
1.57
0-0-2
2.45
0-0-2
2.18
0-2-0
2.61
0-0-2
1.73
0-0-2
1.62
1-0-1
2.28
0-2-0
2.22
1-0-1
2.79
0-0-2
1.84

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.62 +8.1
Allowed 0.45 -9.2
Differential 0.93 +7.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.30%5.30%5.30%1.89%0.76%0.38%18.94%
15.30%15.15%10.61%4.17%1.89%0.76%37.88%
25.30%10.61%4.55%3.79%0.76%1.14%26.14%
31.89%4.17%3.79%0.38%0.38%10.61%
40.76%1.89%0.76%0.38%3.79%
5+0.38%0.76%1.14%0.38%2.65%
Total18.94%37.88%26.14%10.61%3.79%2.65%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.75
CV 0.81 0.81
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
122.73%4.55%4.55%31.82%
218.18%4.55%9.09%4.55%36.36%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total59.09%13.64%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.91 -0.36
SD 1.14 1.38 1.76
CV 0.74 0.72
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
19.09%13.64%4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total18.18%40.91%27.27%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 1.41 +0.77
SD 1.74 1.05 1.95
CV 0.80 0.75
Max 7 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%36.36%
113.64%13.64%13.64%40.91%
29.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%
4
5+
Total22.73%45.45%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.27 -0.36
SD 0.87 1.16 1.29
CV 0.95 0.91
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
14.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%27.27%
222.73%4.55%13.64%40.91%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total9.09%36.36%13.64%31.82%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.00 -0.45
SD 1.06 1.31 1.63
CV 0.68 0.65
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
118.18%13.64%4.55%4.55%40.91%
29.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total22.73%27.27%31.82%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.68 -0.50
SD 1.05 1.62 1.85
CV 0.89 0.96
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%
19.09%13.64%9.09%31.82%
213.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%40.91%
318.18%18.18%
4
5+
Total22.73%45.45%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.23 +0.45
SD 0.89 1.02 1.44
CV 0.53 0.83
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
127.27%4.55%31.82%
29.09%13.64%4.55%27.27%
39.09%4.55%18.18%31.82%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total27.27%45.45%27.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.00 +1.00
SD 1.02 0.76 1.23
CV 0.51 0.76
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%18.18%
19.09%13.64%31.82%54.55%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total13.64%31.82%50.00%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.45 -0.23
SD 0.97 0.80 1.19
CV 0.79 0.55
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%18.18%4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
313.64%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
Total18.18%31.82%31.82%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 1.59 +0.73
SD 1.55 1.18 2.00
CV 0.67 0.74
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
14.55%4.55%18.18%9.09%9.09%4.55%50.00%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%22.73%31.82%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.86 -0.59
SD 1.32 1.39 2.15
CV 1.03 0.75
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
113.64%22.73%4.55%4.55%45.45%
213.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total36.36%45.45%4.55%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.05 +0.23
SD 0.88 1.25 1.72
CV 0.69 1.20
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%9.09%31.82%
19.09%18.18%13.64%4.55%45.45%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
3
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%22.73%36.36%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.77 -0.68
SD 1.31 1.38 1.73
CV 1.20 0.78
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 44 37.39 +6.61
2 KR Reykjavik 47 40.59 +6.41
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 40 33.85 +6.15
4 Stjarnan 37 31.13 +5.87
5 Valur Reykjavik 36 31.90 +4.10

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 15 23.07 -8.07
2 Breidablik 27 32.65 -5.65
3 Keflavik IF 24 29.22 -5.22
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 25 28.47 -3.47
5 Thor Akureyri 21 23.60 -2.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 22 – Jul 6 1 in 80
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 Jul 25 – Aug 21 1 in 27
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Sep 19 – Sep 25 1 in 18
4 KR Reykjavik 4 May 29 – Jul 10 1 in 18
5 Thor Akureyri 3 Jul 18 – Aug 3 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 4 May 22 – Jun 30 1 in 52
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Sep 15 – Oct 1 1 in 18
3 Grindavik 3 May 8 – May 16 1 in 16
4 Fram Reykjavik 3 May 15 – May 29 1 in 15
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 Sep 25 – Oct 1 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grindavik 7 Aug 3 – Sep 15 1 in 119
2 KR Reykjavik 16 May 3 – Aug 29 1 in 66
3 Stjarnan 9 Aug 3 – Sep 25 1 in 38
4 Valur Reykjavik 7 May 22 – Jul 17 1 in 20
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 8 Jul 24 – Sep 11 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 May 7 – Sep 15 1 in 257
2 Fram Reykjavik 10 May 2 – Jul 11 1 in 61
3 Valur Reykjavik 5 Jul 11 – Aug 7 1 in 12
4 Grindavik 6 Aug 22 – Sep 25 1 in 10
5 KR Reykjavik 3 Sep 11 – Sep 19 1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
KR Reykjavik45.93%22.69%13.08%7.45%4.60%2.70%1.58%1.05%0.50%0.23%0.15%0.04%
FH Hafnarfjordur23.22%23.67%16.29%11.93%8.27%6.11%4.39%2.80%1.56%1.07%0.54%0.15%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar9.50%14.32%15.22%13.96%11.88%9.81%8.53%6.14%4.97%3.02%1.82%0.83%
Stjarnan4.93%8.23%11.00%12.07%11.83%12.39%10.03%9.71%7.15%5.82%4.34%2.50%
Valur Reykjavik5.26%9.31%12.16%12.77%12.31%11.76%10.20%8.81%7.14%5.02%3.51%1.75%
Breidablik6.27%10.18%12.65%12.74%12.85%11.69%9.81%8.15%6.40%4.57%3.13%1.56%
Fylkir Reykjavik1.58%3.54%5.56%7.45%9.87%10.47%11.87%11.86%12.46%10.96%8.48%5.90%
Keflavik IF2.14%4.24%6.53%9.70%10.76%11.30%12.03%11.92%10.21%8.94%7.48%4.75%
Fram Reykjavik0.54%1.61%3.54%4.89%6.79%8.06%10.50%11.54%13.24%14.30%13.23%11.76%
Grindavik0.27%1.03%1.79%2.81%4.47%5.91%7.76%10.24%12.77%15.02%18.46%19.47%
Thor Akureyri0.20%0.65%1.25%2.29%3.54%4.83%7.40%9.13%12.04%15.57%19.42%23.68%
Vikingur Reykjavik0.16%0.53%0.93%1.94%2.83%4.97%5.90%8.65%11.56%15.48%19.44%27.61%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.88%
Slight Edge
43.94%25.00%31.06%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 45.00 Elo pts.
189 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.30 goals
Neutral
-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
46%
KR Reykjavik, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Photo Finish
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.71 * Some Luck: 4.71 to 7.06 * Lucky: 7.06 to 9.42 * Wild Swing: 9.42 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.73 * Close: 1.73 to 2.59 * Off: 2.59 to 3.45 * Way Off: 3.45 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.1 * A Surprise: 1.1 to 1.76 * Several Surprises: 1.76 to 2.42 * Many Surprises: 2.42 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.19 points
Some Luck
05.8915
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Pinpoint
02.165
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
88.34%
FH Hafnarfjordur
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
8.66%
Vikingur Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.44
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Strong Edge
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
65%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Occasional
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.78
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.70
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.87
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.30
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.074
Well Within Noise
00.1470.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KR Reykjavik 99.81% 0.19%
FH Hafnarfjordur 99.31% 0.69%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 97.35% 2.65%
Breidablik 95.31% 4.69%
Valur Reykjavik 94.74% 5.26%
Stjarnan 93.16% 6.84%
Keflavik IF 87.77% 12.23%
Fylkir Reykjavik 85.62% 14.38%
Fram Reykjavik 75.01% 24.99%
Grindavik 62.07% 37.93%
Thor Akureyri 56.90% 43.10%
Vikingur Reykjavik 52.95% 47.05%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2011-05-02 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1232 1327 30.0% 26.3% 43.8% +10.5 3
2011-05-02 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1327 1232 43.8% 26.3% 30.0% -10.5 0
2011-05-02 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1266 1266 43.0% 26.3% 30.6% +8.0 3
2011-05-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1266 1266 30.6% 26.3% 43.0% -8.0 0
2011-05-02 Grindavik L 2-3 1254 1230 46.3% 26.1% 27.7% -9.8 0
2011-05-02 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1230 1254 27.7% 26.1% 46.3% +9.8 3
2011-05-02 Stjarnan W 4-2 1257 1247 44.4% 26.2% 29.4% +11.3 3
2011-05-02 @ Keflavik IF L 2-4 1247 1257 29.4% 26.2% 44.4% -11.3 0
2011-05-03 KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1325 1321 43.5% 26.3% 30.2% -9.3 0
2011-05-03 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1321 1325 30.2% 26.3% 43.5% +9.3 3
2011-05-03 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1219 1212 44.0% 26.2% 29.8% +14.7 3
2011-05-03 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1212 1219 29.8% 26.2% 44.0% -14.7 0
2011-05-07 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1274 1244 47.0% 26.0% 27.0% -10.5 3
2011-05-07 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1244 1274 27.0% 26.0% 47.0% +10.5 3
2011-05-07 Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1258 1197 50.9% 25.4% 23.6% -11.9 0
2011-05-07 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1197 1258 23.6% 25.4% 50.9% +11.9 3
2011-05-07 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1236 1234 43.4% 26.3% 30.3% -0.7 1
2011-05-07 @ Stjarnan D 0-0 1234 1236 30.3% 26.3% 43.4% +0.7 4
2011-05-08 Breidablik W 4-1 1316 1315 43.2% 26.3% 30.5% +18.4 3
2011-05-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1315 1316 30.5% 26.3% 43.2% -18.4 0
2011-05-08 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1330 1268 51.1% 25.4% 23.5% -1.4 4
2011-05-08 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1268 1330 23.5% 25.4% 51.1% +1.4 4
2011-05-08 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1240 1242 42.8% 26.3% 30.9% -19.4 3
2011-05-08 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1242 1240 30.9% 26.3% 42.8% +19.4 6
2011-05-11 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1270 1335 33.9% 26.5% 39.6% +0.3 5
2011-05-11 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1335 1270 39.6% 26.5% 33.9% -0.3 4
2011-05-11 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1255 1246 44.2% 26.2% 29.5% -0.8 4
2011-05-11 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1246 1255 29.5% 26.2% 44.2% +0.8 1
2011-05-11 Grindavik W 2-1 1297 1220 52.8% 25.1% 22.1% +5.7 3
2011-05-11 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1220 1297 22.1% 25.1% 52.8% -5.7 3
2011-05-11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1262 1264 42.8% 26.3% 30.9% -10.3 6
2011-05-11 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1264 1262 30.9% 26.3% 42.8% +10.3 6
2011-05-11 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1234 1329 30.0% 26.3% 43.7% -14.8 4
2011-05-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1329 1234 43.7% 26.3% 30.0% +14.8 7
2011-05-11 Stjarnan L 0-1 1209 1235 39.4% 26.5% 34.1% -9.7 3
2011-05-11 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1235 1209 34.1% 26.5% 39.4% +9.7 4
2011-05-15 Breidablik D 1-1 1274 1303 39.1% 26.5% 34.5% -0.2 7
2011-05-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1303 1274 34.5% 26.5% 39.1% +0.2 4
2011-05-15 Stjarnan L 2-5 1247 1245 43.4% 26.3% 30.3% -20.8 1
2011-05-15 @ Fram Reykjavik W 5-2 1245 1247 30.3% 26.3% 43.4% +20.8 7
2011-05-15 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1254 1251 43.5% 26.3% 30.3% +7.5 7
2011-05-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1251 1254 30.3% 26.3% 43.5% -7.5 6
2011-05-16 Keflavik IF L 0-2 1215 1270 35.3% 26.5% 38.2% -16.8 3
2011-05-16 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1270 1215 38.2% 26.5% 35.3% +16.8 8
2011-05-16 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1344 1200 60.3% 23.3% 16.4% +7.5 10
2011-05-16 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1200 1344 16.4% 23.3% 60.3% -7.5 3
2011-05-16 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1334 1219 57.2% 24.2% 18.6% -2.0 5
2011-05-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1219 1334 18.6% 24.2% 57.2% +2.0 5
2011-05-22 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1244 1226 45.4% 26.1% 28.5% +7.5 9
2011-05-22 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1226 1244 28.5% 26.1% 45.4% -7.5 1
2011-05-22 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1303 1262 48.5% 25.8% 25.7% +11.3 7
2011-05-22 @ Breidablik L 1-3 1262 1303 25.7% 25.8% 48.5% -11.3 7
2011-05-22 Grindavik D 0-0 1222 1198 46.2% 26.1% 27.7% -1.0 6
2011-05-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1198 1222 27.7% 26.1% 46.2% +1.0 4
2011-05-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1287 1274 44.8% 26.2% 29.0% -20.1 8
2011-05-22 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1274 1287 29.0% 26.2% 44.8% +20.1 10
2011-05-22 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1266 1351 31.2% 26.4% 42.5% +0.5 8
2011-05-22 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1351 1266 42.5% 26.4% 31.2% -0.6 11
2011-05-29 Breidablik W 2-0 1251 1314 34.2% 26.5% 39.3% +18.2 12
2011-05-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1314 1251 39.3% 26.5% 34.2% -18.2 7
2011-05-29 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1219 1351 25.6% 25.8% 48.6% -6.5 1
2011-05-29 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1351 1219 48.6% 25.8% 25.6% +6.5 14
2011-05-29 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1294 1220 52.4% 25.2% 22.4% +11.6 13
2011-05-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1220 1294 22.4% 25.2% 52.4% -11.6 6
2011-05-30 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1250 1266 40.8% 26.4% 32.8% +7.9 10
2011-05-30 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1266 1250 32.8% 26.4% 40.8% -7.9 8
2011-05-30 Stjarnan W 3-0 1332 1266 51.6% 25.4% 23.1% +17.3 8
2011-05-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1266 1332 23.1% 25.4% 51.6% -17.3 8
2011-05-30 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1199 1192 44.0% 26.2% 29.7% +18.0 7
2011-05-30 @ Grindavik L 1-4 1192 1199 29.7% 26.2% 44.0% -18.0 3
2011-06-06 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1209 1258 36.1% 26.5% 37.4% -14.8 6
2011-06-06 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1258 1209 37.4% 26.5% 36.1% +14.8 13
2011-06-06 Grindavik W 2-1 1249 1217 47.3% 25.9% 26.8% +6.8 11
2011-06-06 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1217 1249 26.8% 25.9% 47.3% -6.8 7
2011-06-07 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1357 1350 44.1% 26.2% 29.6% +14.7 17
2011-06-07 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1350 1357 29.6% 26.2% 44.1% -14.7 8
2011-06-07 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1296 1212 53.7% 25.0% 21.4% -1.7 8
2011-06-07 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1212 1296 21.4% 25.0% 53.7% +1.7 2
2011-06-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1174 1305 25.7% 25.8% 48.5% +10.7 6
2011-06-07 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1305 1174 48.5% 25.8% 25.7% -10.8 13
2011-06-13 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1185 1335 23.7% 25.5% 50.9% +1.0 7
2011-06-13 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1335 1185 50.9% 25.5% 23.7% -1.0 9
2011-06-24 Stjarnan W 2-1 1295 1256 48.2% 25.8% 25.9% +6.6 16
2011-06-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1256 1295 25.9% 25.8% 48.2% -6.6 11
2011-06-26 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1210 1372 22.5% 25.2% 52.3% -17.0 7
2011-06-26 @ Grindavik W 3-0 1372 1210 52.3% 25.2% 22.5% +17.0 20
2011-06-26 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1273 1186 54.1% 24.9% 21.0% -1.7 14
2011-06-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1186 1273 21.0% 24.9% 54.1% +1.7 8
2011-06-26 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1269 1194 52.7% 25.2% 22.2% +5.8 15
2011-06-26 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1194 1269 22.2% 25.2% 52.7% -5.8 6
2011-06-27 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1214 1334 27.0% 26.0% 47.0% -6.8 2
2011-06-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1334 1214 47.0% 26.0% 27.0% +6.8 12
2011-06-27 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1294 1259 47.8% 25.9% 26.3% +6.7 11
2011-06-27 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1259 1294 26.3% 25.9% 47.8% -6.7 8
2011-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1252 1275 39.8% 26.5% 33.7% -18.4 8
2011-06-30 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1275 1252 33.7% 26.5% 39.8% +18.3 18
2011-07-06 Breidablik D 2-2 1188 1301 27.8% 26.1% 46.1% +0.7 7
2011-07-06 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1301 1188 46.1% 26.1% 27.8% -0.7 12
2011-07-06 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1234 1207 46.6% 26.0% 27.4% +7.3 11
2011-07-06 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1207 1234 27.4% 26.0% 46.6% -7.3 2
2011-07-06 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-1 1249 1271 40.0% 26.5% 33.5% +19.8 14
2011-07-06 @ Stjarnan L 1-4 1271 1249 33.5% 26.5% 40.0% -19.8 14
2011-07-06 Grindavik W 7-2 1341 1193 60.6% 23.2% 16.2% +13.9 15
2011-07-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-7 1193 1341 16.2% 23.2% 60.6% -13.9 7
2011-07-06 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1187 1294 28.6% 26.2% 45.2% -20.7 8
2011-07-06 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1294 1187 45.2% 26.2% 28.6% +20.7 21
2011-07-09 Thor Akureyri W 4-1 1300 1167 59.2% 23.6% 17.2% +11.1 15
2011-07-09 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1167 1300 17.2% 23.6% 59.2% -11.1 8
2011-07-10 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1301 1355 35.6% 26.5% 37.9% +15.3 19
2011-07-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1355 1301 37.9% 26.5% 35.6% -15.3 15
2011-07-10 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1251 1389 25.0% 25.7% 49.3% -18.6 14
2011-07-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1389 1251 49.3% 25.7% 25.0% +18.5 23
2011-07-11 Grindavik D 1-1 1200 1179 45.8% 26.1% 28.1% -0.9 3
2011-07-11 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1179 1200 28.1% 26.1% 45.8% +0.9 8
2011-07-11 Stjarnan D 1-1 1314 1269 49.0% 25.7% 25.2% -1.2 22
2011-07-11 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1269 1314 25.2% 25.7% 49.0% +1.2 15
2011-07-11 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1241 1189 49.8% 25.6% 24.6% +6.3 14
2011-07-11 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1189 1241 24.6% 25.6% 49.8% -6.3 7
2011-07-16 Breidablik W 3-2 1270 1312 37.2% 26.5% 36.2% +8.1 18
2011-07-16 @ Stjarnan L 2-3 1312 1270 36.2% 26.5% 37.2% -8.1 15
2011-07-17 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1339 1233 56.2% 24.4% 19.3% -1.4 16
2011-07-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1233 1339 19.3% 24.4% 56.2% +1.4 15
2011-07-17 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1180 1317 25.1% 25.7% 49.1% +21.7 11
2011-07-17 @ Grindavik L 0-2 1317 1180 49.1% 25.7% 25.1% -21.7 19
2011-07-17 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1408 1313 54.9% 24.7% 20.4% -1.8 24
2011-07-17 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1313 1408 20.4% 24.7% 54.9% +1.8 23
2011-07-18 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1183 1199 40.8% 26.4% 32.8% -9.9 7
2011-07-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1199 1183 32.8% 26.4% 40.8% +9.9 6
2011-07-18 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1156 1247 30.4% 26.3% 43.3% +9.8 11
2011-07-18 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1247 1156 43.3% 26.3% 30.4% -9.8 14
2011-07-24 Breidablik W 4-0 1406 1303 55.8% 24.5% 19.7% +19.7 27
2011-07-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1303 1406 19.7% 24.5% 55.8% -19.7 15
2011-07-24 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-4 1202 1234 38.6% 26.5% 34.9% -21.9 11
2011-07-24 @ Grindavik W 4-1 1234 1202 34.9% 26.5% 38.6% +21.9 18
2011-07-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1209 1295 31.1% 26.4% 42.5% -15.2 6
2011-07-24 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1295 1209 42.5% 26.4% 31.1% +15.2 22
2011-07-24 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1278 1237 48.4% 25.8% 25.8% -10.2 18
2011-07-24 @ Stjarnan W 3-2 1237 1278 25.8% 25.8% 48.4% +10.2 17
2011-07-24 Vikingur Reykjavik W 6-1 1165 1173 42.0% 26.4% 31.6% +29.8 14
2011-07-24 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-6 1173 1165 31.6% 26.4% 42.0% -29.8 7
2011-07-25 Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 1338 1315 46.1% 26.1% 27.8% +6.6 19
2011-07-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1315 1338 27.8% 26.1% 46.1% -6.6 23
2011-08-03 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1284 1344 34.5% 26.5% 39.0% -8.8 15
2011-08-03 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1344 1284 39.0% 26.5% 34.5% +8.8 22
2011-08-03 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1195 1194 43.3% 26.3% 30.4% +21.8 17
2011-08-03 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-3 1194 1195 30.4% 26.3% 43.3% -21.8 6
2011-08-03 Grindavik D 1-1 1308 1180 58.6% 23.8% 17.6% -2.2 24
2011-08-03 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1180 1308 17.6% 23.8% 58.6% +2.2 12
2011-08-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1256 1310 35.5% 26.5% 38.0% -14.6 18
2011-08-03 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1310 1256 38.0% 26.5% 35.5% +14.6 25
2011-08-03 Stjarnan D 1-1 1143 1268 26.4% 25.9% 47.7% +1.1 8
2011-08-03 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1268 1143 47.7% 25.9% 26.4% -1.1 19
2011-08-07 Breidablik D 1-1 1182 1275 30.3% 26.3% 43.4% +0.6 13
2011-08-07 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1275 1182 43.4% 26.3% 30.3% -0.6 16
2011-08-07 Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1172 1242 33.3% 26.5% 40.3% +0.4 7
2011-08-07 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1242 1172 40.3% 26.5% 33.3% -0.4 19
2011-08-07 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1353 1248 56.2% 24.4% 19.4% +5.4 25
2011-08-07 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1248 1353 19.4% 24.4% 56.2% -5.4 17
2011-08-07 Thor Akureyri W 5-1 1267 1217 49.6% 25.7% 24.8% +20.0 22
2011-08-07 @ Stjarnan L 1-5 1217 1267 24.8% 25.7% 49.6% -20.0 17
2011-08-07 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1325 1306 45.6% 26.1% 28.3% -0.9 26
2011-08-07 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1306 1325 28.3% 26.1% 45.6% +0.9 25
2011-08-07 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1425 1144 72.6% 18.4% 9.0% +2.2 30
2011-08-07 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1144 1425 9.0% 18.4% 72.6% -2.2 8
2011-08-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1142 1359 17.7% 23.8% 58.5% -8.1 8
2011-08-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1359 1142 58.5% 23.8% 17.7% +8.1 28
2011-08-15 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1287 1172 57.2% 24.2% 18.6% -1.5 23
2011-08-15 @ Stjarnan D 2-2 1172 1287 18.6% 24.2% 57.2% +1.5 8
2011-08-15 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-1 1307 1241 51.5% 25.4% 23.1% +10.3 28
2011-08-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1241 1307 23.1% 25.4% 51.5% -10.3 19
2011-08-15 Grindavik L 1-2 1242 1183 50.7% 25.5% 23.8% -11.1 17
2011-08-15 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1183 1242 23.8% 25.5% 50.7% +11.1 16
2011-08-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1274 1324 36.1% 26.5% 37.4% -8.5 16
2011-08-15 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1324 1274 37.4% 26.5% 36.1% +8.5 29
2011-08-18 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1197 1428 16.7% 23.4% 59.9% -4.4 17
2011-08-18 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1428 1197 59.9% 23.4% 16.7% +4.4 33
2011-08-21 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1332 1231 55.7% 24.5% 19.8% +5.2 32
2011-08-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1231 1332 19.8% 24.5% 55.7% -5.2 17
2011-08-21 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1367 1193 63.3% 22.4% 14.4% +7.6 31
2011-08-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1193 1367 14.4% 22.4% 63.3% -7.6 17
2011-08-22 Breidablik L 1-2 1231 1266 38.2% 26.5% 35.3% -8.9 19
2011-08-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1266 1231 35.3% 26.5% 38.2% +8.9 19
2011-08-22 Stjarnan D 1-1 1432 1285 60.5% 23.3% 16.2% -2.4 34
2011-08-22 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1285 1432 16.2% 23.3% 60.5% +2.4 24
2011-08-22 Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1174 1317 24.4% 25.6% 50.0% +19.1 11
2011-08-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1317 1174 50.0% 25.6% 24.4% -19.1 28
2011-08-22 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1194 1134 50.9% 25.5% 23.7% -1.5 17
2011-08-22 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1134 1194 23.7% 25.5% 50.9% +1.6 9
2011-08-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1430 1338 54.6% 24.8% 20.6% -1.3 35
2011-08-25 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1338 1430 20.6% 24.8% 54.6% +1.3 33
2011-08-28 Grindavik D 0-0 1185 1193 42.0% 26.4% 31.6% -0.6 18
2011-08-28 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1193 1185 31.6% 26.4% 42.0% +0.6 18
2011-08-28 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1275 1298 39.8% 26.5% 33.7% -0.3 20
2011-08-28 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1298 1275 33.7% 26.5% 39.8% +0.3 29
2011-08-29 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-0 1288 1374 31.1% 26.3% 42.6% +36.7 27
2011-08-29 @ Stjarnan L 0-4 1374 1288 42.6% 26.3% 31.1% -36.7 31
2011-08-29 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1428 1193 68.8% 20.2% 11.0% +2.9 38
2011-08-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1193 1428 11.0% 20.2% 68.8% -2.9 11
2011-08-29 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1226 1222 43.6% 26.3% 30.1% -9.8 17
2011-08-29 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1222 1226 30.1% 26.3% 43.6% +9.8 22
2011-08-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1135 1339 18.7% 24.2% 57.0% -8.6 9
2011-08-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1339 1135 57.0% 24.2% 18.7% +8.6 36
2011-09-11 Breidablik W 1-0 1190 1274 31.3% 26.4% 42.3% +10.2 14
2011-09-11 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1274 1190 42.3% 26.4% 31.3% -10.2 20
2011-09-11 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1299 1216 53.5% 25.0% 21.5% -12.4 29
2011-09-11 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1216 1299 21.5% 25.0% 53.5% +12.4 20
2011-09-11 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1338 1431 30.2% 26.3% 43.5% +9.8 34
2011-09-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1431 1338 43.5% 26.3% 30.2% -9.8 38
2011-09-11 Stjarnan D 2-2 1193 1324 25.7% 25.8% 48.5% +0.9 19
2011-09-11 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1324 1193 48.5% 25.8% 25.7% -0.9 28
2011-09-11 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1347 1184 62.2% 22.7% 15.1% +6.9 39
2011-09-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1184 1347 15.1% 22.7% 62.2% -6.9 18
2011-09-11 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1232 1127 56.1% 24.4% 19.4% +5.1 25
2011-09-11 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1127 1232 19.4% 24.4% 56.1% -5.1 9
2011-09-15 Breidablik D 1-1 1228 1264 38.0% 26.5% 35.5% -0.1 21
2011-09-15 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1264 1228 35.5% 26.5% 38.0% +0.1 21
2011-09-15 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1348 1200 60.6% 23.2% 16.2% -2.4 35
2011-09-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1200 1348 16.2% 23.2% 60.6% +2.4 15
2011-09-15 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1177 1237 34.7% 26.5% 38.8% +18.0 21
2011-09-15 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1237 1177 38.8% 26.5% 34.7% -18.0 25
2011-09-15 Grindavik D 1-1 1421 1194 68.1% 20.5% 11.4% -3.1 39
2011-09-15 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1194 1421 11.4% 20.5% 68.1% +3.1 20
2011-09-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1324 1354 38.8% 26.5% 34.7% +7.9 31
2011-09-15 @ Stjarnan L 2-3 1354 1324 34.7% 26.5% 38.8% -7.9 39
2011-09-15 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1122 1286 22.2% 25.2% 52.6% -6.1 9
2011-09-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1286 1122 52.6% 25.2% 22.2% +6.1 32
2011-09-18 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1292 1195 55.2% 24.7% 20.2% +5.3 35
2011-09-18 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1195 1292 20.2% 24.7% 55.2% -5.3 21
2011-09-19 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1197 1345 23.9% 25.5% 50.6% -10.6 20
2011-09-19 @ Grindavik W 3-1 1345 1197 50.6% 25.5% 23.9% +10.6 38
2011-09-19 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1203 1228 39.5% 26.5% 34.0% +8.7 18
2011-09-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1228 1203 34.0% 26.5% 39.5% -8.7 21
2011-09-19 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1347 1418 33.0% 26.4% 40.5% +0.4 40
2011-09-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1418 1347 40.5% 26.4% 33.0% -0.4 40
2011-09-19 Stjarnan L 2-3 1219 1332 27.9% 26.1% 46.1% -6.6 25
2011-09-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1332 1219 46.1% 26.1% 27.9% +6.6 34
2011-09-19 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-6 1264 1116 60.8% 23.2% 16.1% -34.9 21
2011-09-19 @ Breidablik W 6-2 1116 1264 16.1% 23.2% 60.8% +34.9 12
2011-09-22 KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1220 1418 19.2% 24.4% 56.5% -4.8 21
2011-09-22 @ Keflavik IF W 3-2 1418 1220 56.5% 24.4% 19.2% +4.8 43
2011-09-25 Breidablik L 1-2 1190 1229 37.6% 26.5% 35.9% -8.8 21
2011-09-25 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1229 1190 35.9% 26.5% 37.6% +8.8 24
2011-09-25 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1186 1211 39.6% 26.5% 33.9% -9.1 20
2011-09-25 @ Grindavik W 2-1 1211 1186 33.9% 26.5% 39.6% +9.1 21
2011-09-25 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1423 1212 66.6% 21.1% 12.3% +3.1 46
2011-09-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1212 1423 12.3% 21.1% 66.6% -3.1 25
2011-09-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-2 1356 1347 44.3% 26.2% 29.5% +11.3 41
2011-09-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-4 1347 1356 29.5% 26.2% 44.3% -11.3 40
2011-09-25 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1150 1215 34.0% 26.5% 39.5% +9.1 15
2011-09-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1215 1150 39.5% 26.5% 34.0% -9.1 21
2011-09-25 Valur Reykjavik W 5-0 1338 1298 48.4% 25.8% 25.8% +30.6 37
2011-09-25 @ Stjarnan L 0-5 1298 1338 25.8% 25.8% 48.4% -30.6 35
2011-10-01 FH Hafnarfjordur L 3-5 1209 1367 22.9% 25.3% 51.8% -8.7 25
2011-10-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-3 1367 1209 51.8% 25.3% 22.9% +8.7 44
2011-10-01 Grindavik L 0-2 1336 1177 61.7% 22.9% 15.4% -26.4 40
2011-10-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1177 1336 15.4% 22.9% 61.7% +26.4 23
2011-10-01 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1267 1426 22.8% 25.3% 51.9% +1.7 36
2011-10-01 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1426 1267 51.9% 25.3% 22.8% -1.7 47
2011-10-01 Stjarnan W 4-3 1238 1369 25.8% 25.8% 48.4% +9.9 27
2011-10-01 @ Breidablik L 3-4 1369 1238 48.4% 25.8% 25.8% -9.9 37
2011-10-01 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1206 1181 46.3% 26.1% 27.6% +6.9 24
2011-10-01 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1181 1206 27.6% 26.1% 46.3% -6.9 21
2011-10-01 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1220 1160 50.9% 25.4% 23.6% +6.1 24
2011-10-01 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1160 1220 23.6% 25.4% 50.9% -6.1 15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2011-10-01 15.41% Grindavik 1177 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1336 0
2 2011-09-19 16.06% Vikingur Reykjavik 1116 6 @ Breidablik 1264 2
3 2011-09-11 21.47% Keflavik IF 1216 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1299 0
4 2011-05-07 23.60% Thor Akureyri 1197 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1258 0
5 2011-08-15 23.77% Grindavik 1183 2 @ Keflavik IF 1242 1
6 2011-08-22 24.37% @ Fram Reykjavik 1174 3 Valur Reykjavik 1317 1
7 2011-07-17 25.14% @ Grindavik 1180 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1317 0
8 2011-06-07 25.67% @ Thor Akureyri 1174 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1305 1
9 2011-07-24 25.75% Keflavik IF 1237 3 @ Stjarnan 1278 2
10 2011-10-01 25.78% @ Breidablik 1238 4 Stjarnan 1369 3
11 2011-05-07 27.01% Fylkir Reykjavik 1244 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1274 1
12 2011-05-02 27.66% Grindavik 1230 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1254 2
13 2011-05-22 29.01% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1274 2 @ Keflavik IF 1287 0
14 2011-05-02 29.98% @ Valur Reykjavik 1232 1 FH Hafnarfjordur 1327 0
15 2011-08-29 30.15% Fylkir Reykjavik 1222 2 @ Keflavik IF 1226 1
16 2011-05-03 30.17% KR Reykjavik 1321 3 @ Breidablik 1325 2
17 2011-09-11 30.18% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1338 2 KR Reykjavik 1431 1
18 2011-05-15 30.34% Stjarnan 1245 5 @ Fram Reykjavik 1247 2
19 2011-07-18 30.42% @ Thor Akureyri 1156 2 Keflavik IF 1247 1
20 2011-05-11 30.90% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1264 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1262 0
21 2011-05-08 30.91% Valur Reykjavik 1242 2 @ Grindavik 1240 0
22 2011-08-29 31.06% @ Stjarnan 1288 4 FH Hafnarfjordur 1374 0
23 2011-09-11 31.34% @ Fram Reykjavik 1190 1 Breidablik 1274 0
24 2011-07-18 32.75% Fram Reykjavik 1199 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1183 0
25 2011-06-30 33.70% Valur Reykjavik 1275 2 @ Keflavik IF 1252 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-08-29 36.68 @ Stjarnan 4 1288 31.06% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1374 42.59% 26.34%
2 2011-09-19 34.91 Vikingur Reykjavik 6 1116 16.06% @ Breidablik 2 1264 60.76% 23.18%
3 2011-09-25 30.64 @ Stjarnan 5 1338 48.41% Valur Reykjavik 0 1298 25.77% 25.81%
4 2011-07-24 29.85 @ Thor Akureyri 6 1165 42.05% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1173 31.58% 26.37%
5 2011-10-01 26.37 Grindavik 2 1177 15.41% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1336 61.71% 22.88%
6 2011-07-24 21.93 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1234 34.95% @ Grindavik 1 1202 38.56% 26.49%
7 2011-08-03 21.75 @ Thor Akureyri 3 1195 43.28% Fram Reykjavik 0 1194 30.42% 26.30%
8 2011-07-17 21.71 @ Grindavik 2 1180 25.14% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1317 49.14% 25.72%
9 2011-05-15 20.80 Stjarnan 5 1245 30.34% @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1247 43.37% 26.29%
10 2011-07-06 20.72 Valur Reykjavik 3 1294 45.23% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1187 28.62% 26.15%
11 2011-05-22 20.13 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1274 29.01% @ Keflavik IF 0 1287 44.81% 26.19%
12 2011-08-07 20.03 @ Stjarnan 5 1267 49.59% Thor Akureyri 1 1217 24.75% 25.66%
13 2011-07-06 19.77 @ Stjarnan 4 1249 40.00% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1271 33.54% 26.46%
14 2011-07-24 19.66 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1406 55.79% Breidablik 0 1303 19.69% 24.52%
15 2011-05-08 19.39 Valur Reykjavik 2 1242 30.91% @ Grindavik 0 1240 42.76% 26.33%
16 2011-08-22 19.09 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1174 24.37% Valur Reykjavik 1 1317 50.03% 25.59%
17 2011-07-10 18.56 KR Reykjavik 3 1389 49.29% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1251 25.01% 25.70%
18 2011-05-08 18.38 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1316 43.18% Breidablik 1 1315 30.51% 26.31%
19 2011-06-30 18.35 Valur Reykjavik 2 1275 33.70% @ Keflavik IF 0 1252 39.83% 26.46%
20 2011-05-29 18.17 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1251 34.21% Breidablik 0 1314 39.31% 26.48%
21 2011-05-30 18.01 @ Grindavik 4 1199 44.02% Thor Akureyri 1 1192 29.73% 26.25%
22 2011-09-15 18.00 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1177 34.68% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1237 38.84% 26.49%
23 2011-05-30 17.34 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1332 51.57% Stjarnan 0 1266 23.08% 25.35%
24 2011-06-26 16.97 KR Reykjavik 3 1372 52.26% @ Grindavik 0 1210 22.51% 25.23%
25 2011-05-16 16.77 Keflavik IF 2 1270 38.19% @ Grindavik 0 1215 35.31% 26.50%