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2014 Úrvalsdeild Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Stjarnan

52 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Thor Akureyri

12 pts

Fram Reykjavik · 21 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Stjarnan

13.58 points above expected

52 points · 38.42 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Thor Akureyri

8.98 points below expected

12 points · 20.98 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Stjarnan Champion 22 15 7 0 52 42 21 +21 38.42 +13.58
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 22 15 6 1 51 46 17 +29 46.13 +4.87
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 4 5 43 40 24 +16 37.51 +5.49
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 9 3 10 30 25 29 -4 26.91 +3.09
5 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28 31 36 -5 32.14 -4.14
6 Fylkir Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28 34 40 -6 27.20 +0.80
7 Breidablik 22 5 12 5 27 36 33 +3 32.31 -5.31
8 Keflavik IF 22 6 7 9 25 29 32 -3 27.42 -2.42
9 Fjolnir 22 5 8 9 23 33 36 -3 25.98 -2.98
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 5 7 10 22 28 38 -10 25.78 -3.78
11 Fram Reykjavik Relegated 22 6 3 13 21 30 48 -18 21.60 -0.60
12 Thor Akureyri Relegated 22 3 3 16 12 24 44 -20 20.98 -8.98

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stjarnan 52 38.42 +13.58
2 KR Reykjavik 43 37.51 +5.49
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 51 46.13 +4.87
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 30 26.91 +3.09
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 28 27.20 +0.80

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Thor Akureyri 12 20.98 -8.98
2 Breidablik 27 32.31 -5.31
3 Valur Reykjavik 28 32.14 -4.14
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 25.78 -3.78
5 Fjolnir 23 25.98 -2.98

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jun 9 – Jun 22 1 in 42
2 Keflavik IF 3 May 4 – May 12 1 in 31
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jul 2 – Jul 20 1 in 24
4 Fram Reykjavik 2 Aug 6 – Aug 11 1 in 17
5 Stjarnan 4 Jul 20 – Aug 15 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 8 Jul 27 – Sep 21 1 in 227
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 May 8 – May 22 1 in 48
3 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jun 23 – Jul 27 1 in 34
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Sep 18 – Oct 4 1 in 21
5 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 27 – Jul 19 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stjarnan 22 May 4 – Oct 4 1 in 544
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 21 May 5 – Sep 28 1 in 37
3 Breidablik 8 Jul 27 – Sep 21 1 in 34
4 Fjolnir 6 May 4 – Jun 1 1 in 19
5 Keflavik IF 5 May 22 – Jun 22 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 11 Jul 2 – Sep 21 1 in 93
2 Breidablik 9 May 5 – Jun 22 1 in 74
3 Fjolnir 10 May 11 – Jul 21 1 in 41
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 9 May 4 – Jun 22 1 in 31
5 Thor Akureyri 9 Jul 20 – Sep 21 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Stjarnan 1562 52 +48 13 9.5 +3.5
FH Hafnarfjordur 1605 51 +3 10 10.6 -0.6
KR Reykjavik 1522 43 +62 11 9.0 +2.0
Vikingur Reykjavik 1275 30 -80 1 5.6 -4.6
Fylkir Reykjavik 1321 28 -35 7 7.2 -0.2
Valur Reykjavik 1309 28 +2 7 6.6 +0.4
Breidablik 1397 27 +20 8 8.4 -0.4
Keflavik IF 1304 25 +14 6 5.9 +0.1
Fjolnir 1314 23 +44 7 5.0 +2.0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1220 22 -114 2 6.0 -4.0
Fram Reykjavik 1218 21 +3 6 4.1 +1.9
Thor Akureyri 1180 12 +12 3 2.9 +0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FJO FR FR IV KR KI STJ TA VR VR
Breidablik —
0-1-1
1.75
0-2-0
3.05
1-1-0
3.38
0-2-0
2.99
0-2-0
3.33
0-1-1
2.31
0-1-1
3.00
0-2-0
1.97
1-0-1
3.89
2-0-0
2.56
1-0-1
3.03
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-1-0
3.73
 —
2-0-0
4.24
2-0-0
4.44
2-0-0
4.10
1-1-0
4.30
1-1-0
3.38
1-1-0
4.11
0-1-1
3.46
1-1-0
4.70
2-0-0
4.08
2-0-0
4.25
Fjolnir
0-2-0
2.40
0-0-2
1.28
 —
1-0-1
3.02
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
2.74
0-1-1
1.81
0-2-0
2.56
0-1-1
1.41
2-0-0
2.78
0-1-1
2.27
1-0-1
2.46
Fram Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.08
0-0-2
1.11
1-0-1
2.44
 —
1-0-1
2.19
0-1-1
2.22
0-0-2
1.41
1-1-0
2.06
0-0-2
1.32
2-0-0
2.57
1-0-1
1.84
0-0-2
2.45
Fylkir Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.46
0-0-2
1.41
1-1-0
2.86
1-0-1
3.27
 —
2-0-0
2.45
0-0-2
1.92
1-0-1
2.71
0-0-2
1.99
1-0-1
3.55
1-0-1
2.38
1-1-0
2.75
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-2-0
2.13
0-1-1
1.22
1-0-1
2.72
1-1-0
3.24
0-0-2
3.00
 —
0-1-1
1.53
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
2.03
1-1-0
3.21
0-1-1
2.33
1-0-1
2.62
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.16
0-1-1
2.08
1-1-0
3.67
2-0-0
4.09
2-0-0
3.55
1-1-0
3.96
 —
2-0-0
3.32
0-0-2
2.66
1-0-1
4.36
1-0-1
3.01
2-0-0
3.86
Keflavik IF
1-1-0
2.46
0-1-1
1.41
0-2-0
2.89
0-1-1
3.40
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.89
0-0-2
2.15
 —
0-1-1
1.70
1-1-0
2.92
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.85
Stjarnan
0-2-0
3.50
1-1-0
2.01
1-1-0
4.09
2-0-0
4.20
2-0-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.44
2-0-0
2.79
1-1-0
3.80
 —
2-0-0
4.17
1-1-0
3.39
1-1-0
3.90
Thor Akureyri
1-0-1
1.60
0-1-1
0.88
0-0-2
2.68
0-0-2
2.89
1-0-1
1.91
0-1-1
2.26
1-0-1
1.17
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
1.35
 —
0-0-2
1.64
0-0-2
2.11
Valur Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.90
0-0-2
1.42
1-1-0
3.19
1-0-1
3.63
1-0-1
3.08
1-1-0
3.13
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
3.08
0-1-1
2.07
2-0-0
3.85
 —
0-1-1
3.17
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.42
0-0-2
1.26
1-0-1
3.00
2-0-0
3.01
0-1-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.84
0-0-2
1.63
1-0-1
2.61
0-1-1
1.58
2-0-0
3.36
1-1-0
2.30
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +15.8
Allowed 0.82 -12.0
Differential 0.91 +7.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.27%7.20%6.82%2.65%1.52%—20.45%
17.20%16.67%7.95%2.27%2.65%—36.74%
26.82%7.95%4.55%2.27%1.89%0.38%23.86%
32.65%2.27%2.27%1.52%1.14%0.38%10.23%
41.52%2.65%1.89%1.14%0.76%—7.95%
5+——0.38%0.38%——0.76%
Total20.45%36.74%23.86%10.23%7.95%0.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.51 1.51 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.20 1.67
CV 0.80 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
1—36.36%4.55%———40.91%
2—4.55%13.64%—4.55%—22.73%
39.09%—4.55%———13.64%
4—4.55%——4.55%—9.09%
5+———————
Total9.09%50.00%31.82%—9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.50 +0.14
SD 1.18 1.01 1.42
CV 0.72 0.67 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
118.18%22.73%4.55%———45.45%
213.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
49.09%4.55%9.09%———22.73%
5+———————
Total45.45%31.82%22.73%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 0.77 +1.32
SD 1.23 0.81 1.36
CV 0.59 1.05 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%——4.55%—22.73%
1—22.73%9.09%—4.55%—36.36%
2—4.55%4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
39.09%4.55%—4.55%4.55%—22.73%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%50.00%13.64%4.55%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.64 -0.14
SD 1.22 1.33 1.78
CV 0.82 0.81 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%9.09%9.09%—27.27%
19.09%13.64%13.64%4.55%——40.91%
24.55%——4.55%4.55%—13.64%
3—————4.55%4.55%
4—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
5+———————
Total13.64%18.18%27.27%22.73%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.18 -0.82
SD 1.33 1.40 1.94
CV 0.97 0.64 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
14.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
29.09%9.09%4.55%—4.55%4.55%31.82%
3—9.09%—4.55%4.55%—18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%45.45%9.09%13.64%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.82 -0.27
SD 1.22 1.47 1.91
CV 0.79 0.81 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%9.09%——22.73%
1—22.73%9.09%9.09%——40.91%
29.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
3———4.55%——4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total9.09%36.36%27.27%27.27%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.73 -0.45
SD 1.03 0.98 1.50
CV 0.81 0.57 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
118.18%13.64%9.09%———40.91%
29.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
3——9.09%4.55%——13.64%
44.55%9.09%————13.64%
5+———————
Total31.82%36.36%22.73%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.09 +0.73
SD 1.22 0.97 1.49
CV 0.67 0.89 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%———27.27%
14.55%18.18%9.09%4.55%——36.36%
213.64%—4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
5+———————
Total22.73%31.82%31.82%4.55%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.45 -0.14
SD 1.21 1.18 1.46
CV 0.92 0.81 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—————9.09%
19.09%9.09%————18.18%
29.09%31.82%13.64%———54.55%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
44.55%——4.55%——9.09%
5+———————
Total31.82%45.45%18.18%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 0.95 +0.95
SD 1.02 0.84 0.95
CV 0.53 0.88 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%18.18%———36.36%
1—9.09%9.09%4.55%13.64%—36.36%
29.09%——9.09%——18.18%
3————4.55%—4.55%
4———————
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total13.64%22.73%31.82%13.64%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 2.00 -0.91
SD 1.23 1.31 1.60
CV 1.13 0.65 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
19.09%13.64%18.18%—9.09%—50.00%
24.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total18.18%31.82%27.27%13.64%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.64 -0.23
SD 1.26 1.22 1.66
CV 0.89 0.74 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
113.64%9.09%9.09%—4.55%—36.36%
2—13.64%—4.55%——18.18%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%40.91%22.73%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.32 -0.18
SD 1.04 1.09 1.56
CV 0.91 0.82 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1605 51 46.13 +4.87 87.0% 32 38 43 47 49 54 56
Stjarnan 1562 52 38.42 +13.58 98.0% 23 27 34 39 43 50 54
KR Reykjavik 1522 43 37.51 +5.49 86.0% 15 27 34 38 41 48 52
Breidablik 1397 27 32.31 -5.31 24.0% 16 22 28 32 37 42 56
Fylkir Reykjavik 1321 28 27.20 +0.80 57.0% 10 18 23 27 31 35 41
Fjolnir 1314 23 25.98 -2.98 26.0% 13 15 23 26 29 34 45
Valur Reykjavik 1309 28 32.14 -4.14 30.0% 19 24 28 32 36 42 45
Keflavik IF 1304 25 27.42 -2.42 36.0% 13 17 23 26 32 38 45
Vikingur Reykjavik 1275 30 26.91 +3.09 73.0% 15 18 22 27 31 36 44
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1220 22 25.78 -3.78 23.0% 13 15 23 25 29 34 46
Fram Reykjavik 1218 21 21.60 -0.60 47.0% 10 14 18 22 24 31 32
Thor Akureyri 1180 12 20.98 -8.98 4.0% 9 13 17 20 25 29 36

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.58%
Slight Edge
40.91%25.76%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 26.37 Elo pts.
184 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.26 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
16%
Stjarnan, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.270.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.63 * Some Luck: 4.63 to 6.94 * Lucky: 6.94 to 9.26 * Wild Swing: 9.26 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.49 * Close: 1.49 to 2.23 * Off: 2.23 to 2.97 * Way Off: 2.97 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.92 * A Surprise: 0.92 to 1.47 * Several Surprises: 1.47 to 2.02 * Many Surprises: 2.02 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.80 points
Some Luck
05.7914
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.864
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.00%
Stjarnan
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
4.00%
Thor Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 140.17
1.99
Wide Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
72%
Clear Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
92%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Slight Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.93
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.68
Strong Carryover
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.33
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.26
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.129
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Stjarnan16.00%32.00%17.00%12.00%11.00%6.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%——
FH Hafnarfjordur70.00%20.00%7.00%2.00%—1.00%——————
KR Reykjavik10.00%27.00%27.00%16.00%6.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%—
Vikingur Reykjavik—2.00%3.00%9.00%10.00%10.00%15.00%9.00%9.00%13.00%11.00%9.00%
Valur Reykjavik3.00%5.00%14.00%18.00%14.00%16.00%10.00%13.00%1.00%4.00%—2.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik—1.00%3.00%11.00%9.00%13.00%14.00%9.00%11.00%13.00%10.00%6.00%
Breidablik1.00%7.00%14.00%16.00%17.00%14.00%13.00%6.00%5.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%
Keflavik IF—2.00%6.00%9.00%15.00%9.00%9.00%11.00%11.00%13.00%6.00%9.00%
Fjolnir—1.00%5.00%3.00%4.00%10.00%14.00%21.00%19.00%8.00%7.00%8.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar—3.00%3.00%3.00%7.00%11.00%6.00%19.00%10.00%19.00%10.00%9.00%
Fram Reykjavik———1.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%5.00%16.00%15.00%27.00%24.00%
Thor Akureyri——1.00%—3.00%2.00%9.00%4.00%14.00%10.00%26.00%31.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 100% —
Stjarnan 100% —
KR Reykjavik 99.00% 1.00%
Valur Reykjavik 98.00% 2.00%
Breidablik 96.00% 4.00%
Fjolnir 85.00% 15.00%
Keflavik IF 85.00% 15.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik 84.00% 16.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 81.00% 19.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 80.00% 20.00%
Fram Reykjavik 49.00% 51.00%
Thor Akureyri 43.00% 57.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2014-05-04 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-040.7 1393 1352 45.52% 27.05% 27.43%+0.36 +12.8 3
2014-05-04 @ Stjarnan L 0-140.7 1352 1393 27.43% 27.05% 45.52%-0.36 -12.8 0
2014-05-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-153.3 1289 1348 31.78% 27.26% 40.96%-0.18 +0.8 1
2014-05-04 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-153.3 1348 1289 40.96% 27.26% 31.78%+0.18 -0.8 1
2014-05-04 Thor Akureyri W 3-141.7 1300 1296 40.69% 27.27% 32.04%+0.17 +23.6 3
2014-05-04 @ Keflavik IF L 1-341.7 1296 1300 32.04% 27.27% 40.69%-0.17 -23.6 0
2014-05-04 Valur Reykjavik L 1-252.5 1425 1391 44.69% 27.10% 28.21%+0.33 -17.5 0
2014-05-04 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-152.5 1391 1425 28.21% 27.10% 44.69%-0.33 +17.5 3
2014-05-04 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-033.8 1286 1288 39.86% 27.29% 32.85%+0.13 +40.3 3
2014-05-04 @ Fjolnir L 0-333.8 1288 1286 32.85% 27.29% 39.86%-0.13 -40.3 0
2014-05-05 Breidablik D 1-157.3 1466 1392 49.63% 26.72% 23.65%+0.54 -2.3 1
2014-05-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-157.3 1392 1466 23.65% 26.72% 49.63%-0.54 +2.3 1
2014-05-08 Fjolnir L 1-245.8 1272 1327 32.40% 27.28% 40.33%-0.15 -13.7 0
2014-05-08 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-145.8 1327 1272 40.33% 27.28% 32.40%+0.15 +13.7 6
2014-05-08 Fram Reykjavik W 2-147.4 1247 1290 34.06% 27.31% 38.63%-0.09 +15.6 3
2014-05-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-247.4 1290 1247 38.63% 27.31% 34.06%+0.09 -15.6 1
2014-05-08 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-032.1 1463 1340 55.21% 25.99% 18.80%+0.81 +25.8 4
2014-05-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-332.1 1340 1463 18.80% 25.99% 55.21%-0.81 -25.8 0
2014-05-08 Keflavik IF L 0-147.3 1408 1324 50.90% 26.58% 22.51%+0.60 -20.8 3
2014-05-08 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-047.3 1324 1408 22.51% 26.58% 50.90%-0.60 +20.8 6
2014-05-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-250.3 1394 1408 38.15% 27.31% 34.53%+0.07 -15.5 1
2014-05-08 @ Breidablik W 2-150.3 1408 1394 34.53% 27.31% 38.15%-0.07 +15.5 3
2014-05-08 Stjarnan L 1-247.4 1348 1406 31.89% 27.26% 40.85%-0.17 -13.6 1
2014-05-08 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-147.4 1406 1348 40.85% 27.26% 31.89%+0.17 +13.6 6
2014-05-11 Valur Reykjavik D 1-154.4 1340 1388 33.38% 27.30% 39.32%-0.11 +0.5 7
2014-05-11 @ Fjolnir D 1-154.4 1388 1340 39.32% 27.30% 33.38%+0.11 -0.5 4
2014-05-12 Breidablik W 2-038.9 1344 1379 35.24% 27.32% 37.44%-0.04 +30.6 9
2014-05-12 @ Keflavik IF L 0-238.9 1379 1344 37.44% 27.32% 35.24%+0.04 -30.6 1
2014-05-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-146.0 1423 1489 30.89% 27.23% 41.88%-0.21 -14.1 3
2014-05-12 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-046.0 1489 1423 41.88% 27.23% 30.89%+0.21 +14.1 7
2014-05-12 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-345.3 1334 1314 42.82% 27.19% 29.99%+0.25 -29.4 1
2014-05-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-145.3 1314 1334 29.99% 27.19% 42.82%-0.25 +29.4 3
2014-05-12 Thor Akureyri W 1-039.6 1274 1258 42.26% 27.22% 30.52%+0.23 +13.9 4
2014-05-12 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-139.6 1258 1274 30.52% 27.22% 42.26%-0.23 -13.9 0
2014-05-12 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-050.1 1420 1263 58.48% 25.38% 16.14%+0.99 -4.4 7
2014-05-12 @ Stjarnan D 0-050.1 1263 1420 16.14% 25.38% 58.48%-0.99 +4.4 4
2014-05-18 Fjolnir D 2-259.5 1348 1341 41.06% 27.26% 31.69%+0.18 -0.6 2
2014-05-18 @ Breidablik D 2-259.5 1341 1348 31.69% 27.26% 41.06%-0.18 +0.6 8
2014-05-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-036.9 1503 1305 62.30% 24.45% 13.25%+1.22 +6.8 10
2014-05-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-136.9 1305 1503 13.25% 24.45% 62.30%-1.22 -6.8 1
2014-05-18 KR Reykjavik L 0-143.8 1375 1409 35.24% 27.32% 37.44%-0.04 -15.5 9
2014-05-18 @ Keflavik IF W 1-043.8 1409 1375 37.44% 27.32% 35.24%+0.04 +15.5 6
2014-05-18 Stjarnan L 3-450.3 1244 1415 19.31% 26.09% 54.60%-0.78 -8.4 0
2014-05-18 @ Thor Akureyri W 4-350.3 1415 1244 54.60% 26.09% 19.31%+0.78 +8.4 10
2014-05-19 Fram Reykjavik W 5-345.0 1387 1288 52.52% 26.39% 21.09%+0.68 +14.3 7
2014-05-19 @ Valur Reykjavik L 3-545.0 1288 1387 21.09% 26.39% 52.52%-0.68 -14.3 4
2014-05-19 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-245.0 1267 1343 29.64% 27.18% 43.19%-0.27 -12.8 4
2014-05-19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-145.0 1343 1267 43.19% 27.18% 29.64%+0.27 +12.8 6
2014-05-22 Breidablik D 1-153.2 1274 1347 29.91% 27.19% 42.90%-0.26 +1.1 5
2014-05-22 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-153.2 1347 1274 42.90% 27.19% 29.91%+0.26 -1.1 3
2014-05-22 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-157.8 1360 1510 21.21% 26.41% 52.38%-0.67 +2.8 10
2014-05-22 @ Keflavik IF D 1-157.8 1510 1360 52.38% 26.41% 21.21%+0.67 -2.8 11
2014-05-22 Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-246.8 1236 1356 24.36% 26.79% 48.84%-0.51 +40.1 3
2014-05-22 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-546.8 1356 1236 48.84% 26.79% 24.36%+0.51 -40.1 6
2014-05-22 KR Reykjavik D 1-155.1 1341 1425 28.68% 27.13% 44.19%-0.31 +1.3 9
2014-05-22 @ Fjolnir D 1-155.1 1425 1341 44.19% 27.13% 28.68%+0.31 -1.3 7
2014-05-22 Valur Reykjavik D 1-156.3 1424 1402 43.07% 27.18% 29.75%+0.26 -1.1 11
2014-05-22 @ Stjarnan D 1-156.3 1402 1424 29.75% 27.18% 43.07%-0.26 +1.1 8
2014-05-22 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-249.5 1298 1255 45.83% 27.03% 27.14%+0.38 -17.9 1
2014-05-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-149.5 1255 1298 27.14% 27.03% 45.83%-0.38 +17.9 7
2014-06-01 Fjolnir D 1-154.1 1362 1343 42.74% 27.20% 30.06%+0.25 -1.1 11
2014-06-01 @ Keflavik IF D 1-154.1 1343 1362 30.06% 27.20% 42.74%-0.25 +1.1 10
2014-06-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-152.7 1276 1280 39.52% 27.29% 33.18%+0.12 -0.5 4
2014-06-01 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-152.7 1280 1276 33.18% 27.29% 39.52%-0.12 +0.5 2
2014-06-01 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-035.4 1507 1273 65.26% 23.55% 11.19%+1.42 +5.8 14
2014-06-01 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-135.4 1273 1507 11.19% 23.55% 65.26%-1.42 -5.8 7
2014-06-02 Fram Reykjavik W 3-246.8 1423 1275 57.69% 25.54% 16.77%+0.95 +7.6 10
2014-06-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-346.8 1275 1423 16.77% 25.54% 57.69%-0.95 -7.6 5
2014-06-02 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-038.6 1403 1316 51.13% 26.56% 22.31%+0.61 +10.9 11
2014-06-02 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-138.6 1316 1403 22.31% 26.56% 51.13%-0.61 -10.9 6
2014-06-02 Stjarnan D 1-155.1 1346 1422 29.58% 27.17% 43.25%-0.27 +1.2 4
2014-06-02 @ Breidablik D 1-155.1 1422 1346 43.25% 27.17% 29.58%+0.27 -1.2 12
2014-06-09 Thor Akureyri W 3-251.2 1267 1275 38.86% 27.31% 33.84%+0.10 +13.5 10
2014-06-09 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-351.2 1275 1267 33.84% 27.31% 38.86%-0.10 -13.5 4
2014-06-09 Valur Reykjavik D 2-259.8 1280 1414 22.97% 26.64% 50.39%-0.58 +1.8 3
2014-06-09 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-259.8 1414 1280 50.39% 26.64% 22.97%+0.58 -1.8 12
2014-06-10 Keflavik IF D 1-153.3 1267 1361 27.38% 27.05% 45.57%-0.37 +1.6 6
2014-06-10 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-153.3 1361 1267 45.57% 27.05% 27.38%+0.37 -1.6 12
2014-06-11 Breidablik D 1-153.4 1305 1347 34.07% 27.31% 38.62%-0.09 +0.4 7
2014-06-11 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-153.4 1347 1305 38.62% 27.31% 34.07%+0.09 -0.4 5
2014-06-11 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-140.5 1344 1513 19.46% 26.12% 54.43%-0.77 -9.7 10
2014-06-11 @ Fjolnir W 1-040.5 1513 1344 54.43% 26.12% 19.46%+0.77 +9.7 17
2014-06-11 KR Reykjavik W 2-150.3 1421 1431 38.71% 27.31% 33.98%+0.09 +14.2 15
2014-06-11 @ Stjarnan L 1-250.3 1431 1421 33.98% 27.31% 38.71%-0.09 -14.2 10
2014-06-15 Fram Reykjavik L 1-443.8 1334 1269 48.58% 26.82% 24.60%+0.50 -46.1 10
2014-06-15 @ Fjolnir W 4-143.8 1269 1334 24.60% 26.82% 48.58%-0.50 +46.1 9
2014-06-15 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-037.8 1417 1305 53.87% 26.20% 19.93%+0.75 +9.9 13
2014-06-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-137.8 1305 1417 19.93% 26.20% 53.87%-0.75 -9.9 7
2014-06-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-153.4 1347 1282 48.54% 26.82% 24.64%+0.49 -2.1 6
2014-06-15 @ Breidablik D 1-153.4 1282 1347 24.64% 26.82% 48.54%-0.49 +2.1 4
2014-06-15 Stjarnan D 2-261.3 1360 1435 29.62% 27.18% 43.20%-0.27 +0.9 13
2014-06-15 @ Keflavik IF D 2-261.3 1435 1360 43.20% 27.18% 29.62%+0.27 -0.9 16
2014-06-15 Thor Akureyri D 1-156.7 1523 1262 67.24% 22.85% 9.91%+1.56 -5.6 18
2014-06-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-156.7 1262 1523 9.91% 22.85% 67.24%-1.56 +5.6 5
2014-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-253.3 1412 1280 56.00% 25.86% 18.14%+0.86 -21.3 12
2014-06-15 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-153.3 1280 1412 18.14% 25.86% 56.00%-0.86 +21.3 13
2014-06-22 Breidablik W 1-042.9 1302 1345 33.93% 27.31% 38.77%-0.09 +16.6 16
2014-06-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-142.9 1345 1302 38.77% 27.31% 33.93%+0.09 -16.6 6
2014-06-22 Fjolnir W 2-141.9 1435 1288 57.52% 25.58% 16.91%+0.94 +8.1 19
2014-06-22 @ Stjarnan L 1-241.9 1288 1435 16.91% 25.58% 57.52%-0.94 -8.1 10
2014-06-22 Keflavik IF L 2-446.1 1296 1361 31.01% 27.23% 41.75%-0.21 -20.6 7
2014-06-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-246.1 1361 1296 41.75% 27.23% 31.01%+0.21 +20.6 16
2014-06-22 KR Reykjavik L 2-348.9 1284 1427 22.03% 26.52% 51.45%-0.63 -9.6 4
2014-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-248.9 1427 1284 51.45% 26.52% 22.03%+0.63 +9.6 16
2014-06-22 Valur Reykjavik L 0-138.4 1268 1390 24.06% 26.76% 49.17%-0.52 -11.6 5
2014-06-22 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-038.4 1390 1268 49.17% 26.76% 24.06%+0.52 +11.6 15
2014-06-23 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-432.0 1315 1517 16.69% 25.52% 57.79%-0.95 -30.3 9
2014-06-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-032.0 1517 1315 57.79% 25.52% 16.69%+0.95 +30.3 21
2014-06-27 Stjarnan L 1-243.3 1285 1443 20.50% 26.29% 53.21%-0.71 -9.5 9
2014-06-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-143.3 1443 1285 53.21% 26.29% 20.50%+0.71 +9.5 22
2014-06-27 Valur Reykjavik W 2-147.9 1547 1402 57.41% 25.60% 17.00%+0.93 +8.1 24
2014-06-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-247.9 1402 1547 17.00% 25.60% 57.41%-0.93 -8.1 15
2014-07-02 Fylkir Reykjavik D 3-362.6 1280 1275 40.77% 27.26% 31.97%+0.17 -0.5 11
2014-07-02 @ Fjolnir D 3-362.6 1275 1280 31.97% 27.26% 40.77%-0.17 +0.5 8
2014-07-02 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-252.3 1381 1275 53.35% 26.27% 20.38%+0.72 -20.4 16
2014-07-02 @ Keflavik IF W 2-152.3 1275 1381 20.38% 26.27% 53.35%-0.72 +20.4 7
2014-07-02 Thor Akureyri W 3-248.3 1328 1256 49.45% 26.74% 23.82%+0.54 +10.3 9
2014-07-02 @ Breidablik L 2-348.3 1256 1328 23.82% 26.74% 49.45%-0.54 -10.3 5
2014-07-02 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-033.6 1436 1318 54.60% 26.09% 19.31%+0.78 +18.1 19
2014-07-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-233.6 1318 1436 19.31% 26.09% 54.60%-0.78 -18.2 16
2014-07-10 KR Reykjavik W 2-044.3 1246 1454 16.18% 25.39% 58.42%-0.99 +44.3 8
2014-07-10 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-244.3 1454 1246 58.42% 25.39% 16.18%+0.99 -44.3 19
2014-07-13 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-268.1 1452 1555 26.27% 26.97% 46.76%-0.42 +1.3 23
2014-07-13 @ Stjarnan D 2-268.1 1555 1452 46.76% 26.97% 26.27%+0.42 -1.3 25
2014-07-13 Fjolnir W 4-245.3 1295 1280 42.20% 27.22% 30.58%+0.23 +20.4 10
2014-07-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-445.3 1280 1295 30.58% 27.22% 42.20%-0.23 -20.4 11
2014-07-14 Breidablik L 1-251.6 1394 1339 47.36% 26.92% 25.72%+0.44 -18.4 15
2014-07-14 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-151.6 1339 1394 25.72% 26.92% 47.36%-0.44 +18.4 12
2014-07-14 Fram Reykjavik W 2-035.9 1275 1275 40.09% 27.28% 32.62%+0.14 +27.6 11
2014-07-14 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-235.9 1275 1275 32.62% 27.28% 40.09%-0.14 -27.6 9
2014-07-14 Keflavik IF W 3-144.9 1300 1361 31.58% 27.25% 41.17%-0.19 +28.5 19
2014-07-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-344.9 1361 1300 41.17% 27.25% 31.58%+0.19 -28.5 16
2014-07-19 KR Reykjavik L 1-442.3 1375 1410 35.16% 27.32% 37.52%-0.04 -35.8 15
2014-07-19 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-142.3 1410 1375 37.52% 27.32% 35.16%+0.04 +35.8 22
2014-07-20 Fram Reykjavik W 2-033.3 1316 1248 48.91% 26.79% 24.30%+0.51 +22.0 13
2014-07-20 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-233.3 1248 1316 24.30% 26.79% 48.91%-0.51 -22.0 9
2014-07-20 Keflavik IF D 0-049.0 1290 1332 34.09% 27.31% 38.61%-0.09 +0.4 9
2014-07-20 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-049.0 1332 1290 38.61% 27.31% 34.09%+0.09 -0.4 17
2014-07-20 Stjarnan L 1-340.0 1303 1454 21.21% 26.40% 52.39%-0.67 -17.0 11
2014-07-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-140.0 1454 1303 52.39% 26.40% 21.21%+0.67 +17.0 26
2014-07-21 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-446.8 1357 1554 17.08% 25.62% 57.31%-0.93 -12.6 12
2014-07-21 @ Breidablik W 4-246.8 1554 1357 57.31% 25.62% 17.08%+0.93 +12.6 28
2014-07-21 Fjolnir W 1-037.9 1328 1259 49.08% 26.77% 24.14%+0.52 +11.6 22
2014-07-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-137.9 1259 1328 24.14% 26.77% 49.08%-0.52 -11.6 11
2014-07-27 Breidablik D 1-155.8 1446 1344 52.79% 26.35% 20.85%+0.69 -2.9 23
2014-07-27 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-155.8 1344 1446 20.85% 26.35% 52.79%-0.69 +2.9 13
2014-07-27 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-232.8 1286 1567 11.54% 23.72% 64.73%-1.38 -11.2 11
2014-07-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-032.8 1567 1286 64.73% 23.72% 11.54%+1.38 +11.2 31
2014-07-27 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-034.3 1471 1337 56.17% 25.83% 18.01%+0.86 +17.1 29
2014-07-27 @ Stjarnan L 0-234.3 1337 1471 18.01% 25.83% 56.17%-0.86 -17.1 13
2014-07-27 Thor Akureyri W 4-140.6 1248 1290 34.00% 27.31% 38.69%-0.09 +38.4 14
2014-07-27 @ Fjolnir L 1-440.6 1290 1248 38.69% 27.31% 34.00%+0.09 -38.4 9
2014-07-27 Valur Reykjavik L 1-248.4 1332 1340 38.98% 27.30% 33.72%+0.10 -15.8 17
2014-07-27 @ Keflavik IF W 2-148.4 1340 1332 33.72% 27.30% 38.98%-0.10 +15.8 18
2014-07-27 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-331.2 1226 1340 24.98% 26.86% 48.16%-0.48 -32.6 9
2014-07-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-031.2 1340 1226 48.16% 26.86% 24.98%+0.48 +32.7 25
2014-08-06 Fjolnir W 4-351.8 1355 1286 49.10% 26.77% 24.13%+0.52 +10.1 21
2014-08-06 @ Valur Reykjavik L 3-451.8 1286 1355 24.13% 26.77% 49.10%-0.52 -10.1 14
2014-08-06 Fram Reykjavik L 0-240.0 1252 1193 47.84% 26.88% 25.28%+0.46 -37.1 9
2014-08-06 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-040.0 1193 1252 25.28% 26.88% 47.84%-0.46 +37.1 12
2014-08-06 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-143.8 1275 1320 33.62% 27.30% 39.08%-0.10 +27.3 14
2014-08-06 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-343.8 1320 1275 39.08% 27.30% 33.62%+0.10 -27.3 13
2014-08-06 Keflavik IF D 4-465.4 1347 1316 44.27% 27.12% 28.60%+0.31 -0.7 14
2014-08-06 @ Breidablik D 4-465.4 1316 1347 28.60% 27.12% 44.27%-0.31 +0.7 18
2014-08-10 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-158.7 1293 1578 11.32% 23.62% 65.06%-1.40 +5.2 14
2014-08-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-158.7 1578 1293 65.06% 23.62% 11.32%+1.40 -5.2 32
2014-08-10 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-153.7 1302 1373 30.28% 27.21% 42.52%-0.24 +1.0 15
2014-08-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-153.7 1373 1302 42.52% 27.21% 30.28%+0.24 -1.0 26
2014-08-11 Breidablik D 1-153.2 1276 1347 30.27% 27.20% 42.53%-0.24 +1.0 15
2014-08-11 @ Fjolnir D 1-153.2 1347 1276 42.53% 27.20% 30.27%+0.24 -1.0 15
2014-08-11 Keflavik IF W 2-033.5 1443 1317 55.44% 25.95% 18.60%+0.83 +17.6 26
2014-08-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-233.5 1317 1443 18.60% 25.95% 55.44%-0.83 -17.6 18
2014-08-11 Thor Akureyri W 2-138.5 1488 1215 68.11% 22.51% 9.37%+1.62 +4.5 32
2014-08-11 @ Stjarnan L 1-238.5 1215 1488 9.37% 22.51% 68.11%-1.62 -4.5 9
2014-08-11 Valur Reykjavik W 1-045.8 1230 1366 22.72% 26.61% 50.67%-0.59 +20.7 15
2014-08-11 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-145.8 1366 1230 50.67% 26.61% 22.72%+0.59 -20.7 21
2014-08-15 Stjarnan L 1-245.9 1345 1492 21.52% 26.45% 52.03%-0.66 -9.9 21
2014-08-15 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-145.9 1492 1345 52.03% 26.45% 21.52%+0.66 +9.9 35
2014-08-18 Fram Reykjavik W 3-030.3 1345 1251 52.05% 26.45% 21.51%+0.66 +28.9 18
2014-08-18 @ Breidablik L 0-330.3 1251 1345 21.51% 26.45% 52.05%-0.66 -28.9 15
2014-08-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-251.4 1372 1298 49.57% 26.72% 23.70%+0.54 -19.1 26
2014-08-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-151.4 1298 1372 23.70% 26.72% 49.57%-0.54 +19.1 17
2014-08-18 Thor Akureyri W 4-135.2 1303 1210 51.82% 26.48% 21.70%+0.65 +24.5 18
2014-08-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-435.2 1210 1303 21.70% 26.48% 51.82%-0.65 -24.5 9
2014-08-20 Fjolnir W 1-035.9 1460 1277 60.99% 24.80% 14.21%+1.14 +7.3 29
2014-08-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-135.9 1277 1460 14.21% 24.80% 60.99%-1.14 -7.3 15
2014-08-20 Keflavik IF W 2-032.4 1573 1299 68.17% 22.49% 9.34%+1.63 +9.0 35
2014-08-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-232.4 1299 1573 9.34% 22.49% 68.17%-1.63 -9.0 18
2014-08-24 Breidablik D 2-263.8 1502 1374 55.62% 25.92% 18.46%+0.84 -2.5 36
2014-08-24 @ Stjarnan D 2-263.8 1374 1502 18.46% 25.92% 55.62%-0.84 +2.5 19
2014-08-24 Thor Akureyri W 2-030.9 1317 1186 56.01% 25.86% 18.14%+0.86 +17.2 20
2014-08-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-230.9 1186 1317 18.14% 25.86% 56.01%-0.86 -17.2 9
2014-08-24 Valur Reykjavik W 2-037.0 1328 1335 39.06% 27.30% 33.64%+0.10 +28.3 21
2014-08-24 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-237.0 1335 1328 33.64% 27.30% 39.06%-0.10 -28.3 21
2014-08-25 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-351.7 1353 1582 14.69% 24.96% 60.35%-1.10 -6.7 26
2014-08-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-251.7 1582 1353 60.35% 24.96% 14.69%+1.10 +6.7 38
2014-08-25 Keflavik IF D 1-152.8 1270 1290 37.15% 27.32% 35.53%+0.03 -0.1 16
2014-08-25 @ Fjolnir D 1-152.8 1290 1270 35.53% 27.32% 37.15%-0.03 +0.1 19
2014-08-25 KR Reykjavik L 1-240.2 1222 1468 13.59% 24.58% 61.83%-1.19 -6.6 15
2014-08-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-140.2 1468 1222 61.83% 24.58% 13.59%+1.19 +6.6 32
2014-08-31 Fjolnir W 4-028.7 1589 1269 71.29% 21.16% 7.56%+1.87 +13.7 41
2014-08-31 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-428.7 1269 1589 7.56% 21.16% 71.29%-1.87 -13.7 16
2014-08-31 Fram Reykjavik L 2-450.6 1290 1215 49.77% 26.71% 23.52%+0.55 -29.7 19
2014-08-31 @ Keflavik IF W 4-250.6 1215 1290 23.52% 26.71% 49.77%-0.55 +29.8 18
2014-08-31 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-260.1 1377 1356 42.93% 27.19% 29.88%+0.26 -0.8 20
2014-08-31 @ Breidablik D 2-260.1 1356 1377 29.88% 27.19% 42.93%-0.26 +0.8 22
2014-08-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-035.4 1307 1335 36.11% 27.32% 36.56%-0.01 +43.6 24
2014-08-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-335.4 1335 1307 36.56% 27.32% 36.11%+0.01 -43.6 20
2014-08-31 Stjarnan L 2-360.4 1474 1500 36.50% 27.32% 36.17%+0.01 -14.2 32
2014-08-31 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-260.4 1500 1474 36.17% 27.32% 36.50%-0.01 +14.2 39
2014-08-31 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-135.7 1169 1346 18.75% 25.98% 55.27%-0.82 -9.4 9
2014-08-31 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-035.7 1346 1169 55.27% 25.98% 18.75%+0.82 +9.4 29
2014-09-14 Breidablik D 1-153.6 1291 1376 28.44% 27.11% 44.44%-0.32 +1.4 21
2014-09-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-153.6 1376 1291 44.44% 27.11% 28.44%+0.32 -1.4 21
2014-09-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-227.5 1159 1602 5.44% 18.96% 75.60%-2.26 -5.0 9
2014-09-14 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-027.5 1602 1159 75.60% 18.96% 5.44%+2.26 +5.0 44
2014-09-14 Keflavik IF W 2-030.4 1514 1261 66.68% 23.06% 10.27%+1.52 +10.0 42
2014-09-14 @ Stjarnan L 0-230.4 1261 1514 10.27% 23.06% 66.68%-1.52 -10.0 19
2014-09-14 KR Reykjavik L 0-435.0 1357 1460 26.26% 26.97% 46.78%-0.42 -44.4 22
2014-09-14 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-035.0 1460 1357 46.78% 26.97% 26.26%+0.42 +44.4 35
2014-09-14 Valur Reykjavik D 1-154.0 1355 1350 40.75% 27.27% 31.98%+0.17 -0.7 30
2014-09-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-154.0 1350 1355 31.98% 27.27% 40.75%-0.17 +0.7 25
2014-09-15 Fjolnir L 1-343.2 1245 1256 38.57% 27.31% 34.12%+0.08 -27.1 18
2014-09-15 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-143.2 1256 1245 34.12% 27.31% 38.57%-0.08 +27.1 19
2014-09-18 KR Reykjavik D 1-166.3 1607 1504 52.94% 26.33% 20.73%+0.70 -2.9 45
2014-09-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-166.3 1504 1607 20.73% 26.33% 52.94%-0.70 +2.9 36
2014-09-18 Stjarnan L 0-141.1 1354 1524 19.44% 26.11% 54.44%-0.77 -9.7 30
2014-09-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-041.1 1524 1354 54.44% 26.11% 19.44%+0.77 +9.7 45
2014-09-21 Fram Reykjavik W 4-238.7 1604 1218 75.38% 19.08% 5.53%+2.24 +3.9 48
2014-09-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-438.7 1218 1604 5.53% 19.08% 75.38%-2.24 -3.9 18
2014-09-21 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-140.1 1251 1312 31.44% 27.25% 41.31%-0.19 -14.2 19
2014-09-21 @ Keflavik IF W 1-040.1 1312 1251 41.31% 27.25% 31.44%+0.19 +14.2 25
2014-09-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 3-366.6 1507 1292 63.69% 24.05% 12.26%+1.31 -3.1 37
2014-09-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 3-366.6 1292 1507 12.26% 24.05% 63.69%-1.31 +3.0 22
2014-09-21 Thor Akureyri W 2-029.1 1351 1154 62.14% 24.50% 13.37%+1.21 +13.0 28
2014-09-21 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-229.1 1154 1351 13.37% 24.50% 62.14%-1.21 -13.0 9
2014-09-21 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-139.2 1375 1345 44.11% 27.13% 28.75%+0.31 +30.7 24
2014-09-21 @ Breidablik L 1-439.2 1345 1375 28.75% 27.13% 44.11%-0.31 -30.8 30
2014-09-23 Stjarnan D 0-052.7 1283 1533 13.29% 24.47% 62.24%-1.22 +5.2 20
2014-09-23 @ Fjolnir D 0-052.7 1533 1283 62.24% 24.47% 13.29%+1.22 -5.2 46
2014-09-28 Breidablik W 2-044.2 1141 1405 12.48% 24.14% 63.38%-1.29 +47.7 12
2014-09-28 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-244.2 1405 1141 63.38% 24.14% 12.48%+1.29 -47.7 24
2014-09-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-440.7 1364 1608 13.69% 24.62% 61.69%-1.18 -16.3 28
2014-09-28 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-140.7 1608 1364 61.69% 24.62% 13.69%+1.18 +16.3 51
2014-09-28 Fjolnir W 2-144.5 1327 1288 45.25% 27.07% 27.68%+0.35 +12.2 28
2014-09-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-244.5 1288 1327 27.68% 27.07% 45.25%-0.35 -12.2 20
2014-09-28 Fram Reykjavik W 4-026.2 1528 1214 70.97% 21.30% 7.73%+1.85 +14.0 49
2014-09-28 @ Stjarnan L 0-426.2 1214 1528 7.73% 21.30% 70.97%-1.85 -14.0 18
2014-09-28 Keflavik IF L 0-240.3 1295 1236 47.82% 26.88% 25.30%+0.46 -37.1 22
2014-09-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-040.3 1236 1295 25.30% 26.88% 47.82%-0.46 +37.1 22
2014-09-28 KR Reykjavik L 0-138.8 1314 1504 17.63% 25.75% 56.62%-0.89 -8.9 30
2014-09-28 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-038.8 1504 1314 56.62% 25.75% 17.63%+0.89 +8.9 40
2014-10-04 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-359.1 1200 1339 22.38% 26.57% 51.06%-0.61 +18.2 21
2014-10-04 @ Fram Reykjavik L 3-459.1 1339 1200 51.06% 26.57% 22.38%+0.61 -18.2 28
2014-10-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-032.8 1276 1258 42.47% 27.21% 30.32%+0.24 +38.0 23
2014-10-04 @ Fjolnir L 0-332.8 1258 1276 30.32% 27.21% 42.47%-0.24 -38.0 22
2014-10-04 Stjarnan L 1-265.7 1625 1542 50.61% 26.62% 22.77%+0.59 -19.5 51
2014-10-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-165.7 1542 1625 22.77% 26.62% 50.61%-0.59 +19.5 52
2014-10-04 Thor Akureyri W 4-130.7 1513 1189 71.61% 21.00% 7.38%+1.90 +8.6 43
2014-10-04 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-430.7 1189 1513 7.38% 21.00% 71.61%-1.90 -8.6 12
2014-10-04 Valur Reykjavik W 3-034.5 1358 1348 41.45% 27.24% 31.30%+0.20 +38.9 27
2014-10-04 @ Breidablik L 0-334.5 1348 1358 31.30% 27.24% 41.45%-0.20 -38.9 28
2014-10-04 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-037.4 1274 1305 35.58% 27.32% 37.09%-0.03 +30.4 25
2014-10-04 @ Keflavik IF L 0-237.4 1305 1274 37.09% 27.32% 35.58%+0.03 -30.4 30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2014-09-28 12.48% @ Thor Akureyri 1141 2 Breidablik 1405 0
2 2014-07-10 16.18% @ Thor Akureyri 1246 2 KR Reykjavik 1454 0
3 2014-06-15 18.14% Vikingur Reykjavik 1280 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1412 1
4 2014-07-02 20.38% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1275 2 @ Keflavik IF 1381 1
5 2014-10-04 22.38% @ Fram Reykjavik 1200 4 Fylkir Reykjavik 1339 3
6 2014-05-08 22.51% Keflavik IF 1324 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1408 0
7 2014-08-11 22.72% @ Fram Reykjavik 1230 1 Valur Reykjavik 1366 0
8 2014-10-04 22.77% Stjarnan 1542 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1625 1
9 2014-08-31 23.52% Fram Reykjavik 1215 4 @ Keflavik IF 1290 2
10 2014-08-18 23.70% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1298 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1372 1
11 2014-05-22 24.36% @ Thor Akureyri 1236 5 Fylkir Reykjavik 1356 2
12 2014-06-15 24.60% Fram Reykjavik 1269 4 @ Fjolnir 1334 1
13 2014-08-06 25.28% Fram Reykjavik 1193 2 @ Thor Akureyri 1252 0
14 2014-09-28 25.30% Keflavik IF 1236 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1295 0
15 2014-07-14 25.72% Breidablik 1339 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1394 1
16 2014-05-22 27.14% Vikingur Reykjavik 1255 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1298 1
17 2014-05-04 28.21% Valur Reykjavik 1391 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1425 1
18 2014-05-12 29.99% Fylkir Reykjavik 1314 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1334 1
19 2014-07-14 31.58% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1300 3 Keflavik IF 1361 1
20 2014-08-06 33.62% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1275 3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1320 1
21 2014-07-27 33.72% Valur Reykjavik 1340 2 @ Keflavik IF 1332 1
22 2014-06-22 33.93% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1302 1 Breidablik 1345 0
23 2014-07-27 34.00% @ Fjolnir 1248 4 Thor Akureyri 1290 1
24 2014-05-08 34.06% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1247 2 Fram Reykjavik 1290 1
25 2014-09-15 34.12% Fjolnir 1256 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1245 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-09-28 47.68 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1141 12.48% Breidablik 0 1405 63.38% 24.14%
2 2014-06-15 46.06 Fram Reykjavik 4 1269 24.60% @ Fjolnir 1 1334 48.58% 26.82%
3 2014-09-14 44.38 KR Reykjavik 4 1460 46.78% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1357 26.26% 26.97%
4 2014-07-10 44.30 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1246 16.18% KR Reykjavik 0 1454 58.42% 25.39%
5 2014-08-31 43.63 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1307 36.11% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1335 36.56% 27.32%
6 2014-05-04 40.34 @ Fjolnir 3 1286 39.86% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1288 32.85% 27.29%
7 2014-05-22 40.08 @ Thor Akureyri 5 1236 24.36% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1356 48.84% 26.79%
8 2014-10-04 38.90 @ Breidablik 3 1358 41.45% Valur Reykjavik 0 1348 31.30% 27.24%
9 2014-07-27 38.37 @ Fjolnir 4 1248 34.00% Thor Akureyri 1 1290 38.69% 27.31%
10 2014-10-04 37.97 @ Fjolnir 3 1276 42.47% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1258 30.32% 27.21%
11 2014-08-06 37.12 Fram Reykjavik 2 1193 25.28% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1252 47.84% 26.88%
12 2014-09-28 37.11 Keflavik IF 2 1236 25.30% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1295 47.82% 26.88%
13 2014-07-19 35.76 KR Reykjavik 4 1410 37.52% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1375 35.16% 27.32%
14 2014-07-27 32.65 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1340 48.16% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1226 24.98% 26.86%
15 2014-09-21 30.75 @ Breidablik 4 1375 44.11% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1345 28.75% 27.13%
16 2014-05-12 30.57 @ Keflavik IF 2 1344 35.24% Breidablik 0 1379 37.44% 27.32%
17 2014-10-04 30.37 @ Keflavik IF 2 1274 35.58% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1305 37.09% 27.32%
18 2014-06-23 30.27 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1517 57.79% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1315 16.69% 25.52%
19 2014-08-31 29.75 Fram Reykjavik 4 1215 23.52% @ Keflavik IF 2 1290 49.77% 26.71%
20 2014-05-12 29.35 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1314 29.99% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1334 42.82% 27.19%
21 2014-08-18 28.88 @ Breidablik 3 1345 52.05% Fram Reykjavik 0 1251 21.51% 26.45%
22 2014-07-14 28.45 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1300 31.58% Keflavik IF 1 1361 41.17% 27.25%
23 2014-08-24 28.26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1328 39.06% Valur Reykjavik 0 1335 33.64% 27.30%
24 2014-07-14 27.63 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1275 40.09% Fram Reykjavik 0 1275 32.62% 27.28%
25 2014-08-06 27.34 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1275 33.62% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1320 39.08% 27.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-07-13 68.1 @ Stjarnan 2 1452 26.27% FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1555 46.76% 26.97%
2 2014-09-21 66.6 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1507 63.69% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1292 12.26% 24.05%
3 2014-09-18 66.3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1607 52.94% KR Reykjavik 1 1504 20.73% 26.33%
4 2014-10-04 65.7 Stjarnan 2 1542 22.77% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1625 50.61% 26.62%
5 2014-08-06 65.4 @ Breidablik 4 1347 44.27% Keflavik IF 4 1316 28.60% 27.12%
6 2014-08-24 63.8 @ Stjarnan 2 1502 55.62% Breidablik 2 1374 18.46% 25.92%
7 2014-07-02 62.6 @ Fjolnir 3 1280 40.77% Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1275 31.97% 27.26%
8 2014-06-15 61.3 @ Keflavik IF 2 1360 29.62% Stjarnan 2 1435 43.20% 27.18%
9 2014-08-31 60.4 Stjarnan 3 1500 36.17% @ KR Reykjavik 2 1474 36.50% 27.32%
10 2014-08-31 60.1 @ Breidablik 2 1377 42.93% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1356 29.88% 27.19%
11 2014-06-09 59.8 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1280 22.97% Valur Reykjavik 2 1414 50.39% 26.64%
12 2014-05-18 59.5 @ Breidablik 2 1348 41.06% Fjolnir 2 1341 31.69% 27.26%
13 2014-10-04 59.1 @ Fram Reykjavik 4 1200 22.38% Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1339 51.06% 26.57%
14 2014-08-10 58.7 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1293 11.32% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1578 65.06% 23.62%
15 2014-05-22 57.8 @ Keflavik IF 1 1360 21.21% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1510 52.38% 26.41%
16 2014-05-05 57.3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1466 49.63% Breidablik 1 1392 23.65% 26.72%
17 2014-06-15 56.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1523 67.24% Thor Akureyri 1 1262 9.91% 22.85%
18 2014-05-22 56.3 @ Stjarnan 1 1424 43.07% Valur Reykjavik 1 1402 29.75% 27.18%
19 2014-07-27 55.8 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1446 52.79% Breidablik 1 1344 20.85% 26.35%
20 2014-05-22 55.1 @ Fjolnir 1 1341 28.68% KR Reykjavik 1 1425 44.19% 27.13%
21 2014-06-02 55.1 @ Breidablik 1 1346 29.58% Stjarnan 1 1422 43.25% 27.17%
22 2014-05-11 54.4 @ Fjolnir 1 1340 33.38% Valur Reykjavik 1 1388 39.32% 27.30%
23 2014-06-01 54.1 @ Keflavik IF 1 1362 42.74% Fjolnir 1 1343 30.06% 27.20%
24 2014-09-14 54.0 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1355 40.75% Valur Reykjavik 1 1350 31.98% 27.27%
25 2014-08-10 53.7 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1302 30.28% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1373 42.52% 27.21%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-09-28 26.2 @ Stjarnan 4 1528 70.97% Fram Reykjavik 0 1214 7.73% 21.30%
2 2014-09-14 27.5 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1602 75.60% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1159 5.44% 18.96%
3 2014-08-31 28.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1589 71.29% Fjolnir 0 1269 7.56% 21.16%
4 2014-09-21 29.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1351 62.14% Thor Akureyri 0 1154 13.37% 24.50%
5 2014-08-18 30.3 @ Breidablik 3 1345 52.05% Fram Reykjavik 0 1251 21.51% 26.45%
6 2014-09-14 30.4 @ Stjarnan 2 1514 66.68% Keflavik IF 0 1261 10.27% 23.06%
7 2014-10-04 30.7 @ KR Reykjavik 4 1513 71.61% Thor Akureyri 1 1189 7.38% 21.00%
8 2014-08-24 30.9 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1317 56.01% Thor Akureyri 0 1186 18.14% 25.86%
9 2014-07-27 31.2 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1340 48.16% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1226 24.98% 26.86%
10 2014-06-23 32.0 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1517 57.79% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1315 16.69% 25.52%
11 2014-05-08 32.1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1463 55.21% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1340 18.80% 25.99%
12 2014-08-20 32.4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1573 68.17% Keflavik IF 0 1299 9.34% 22.49%
13 2014-07-27 32.8 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1567 64.73% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1286 11.54% 23.72%
14 2014-10-04 32.8 @ Fjolnir 3 1276 42.47% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1258 30.32% 27.21%
15 2014-07-20 33.3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1316 48.91% Fram Reykjavik 0 1248 24.30% 26.79%
16 2014-08-11 33.5 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1443 55.44% Keflavik IF 0 1317 18.60% 25.95%
17 2014-07-02 33.6 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1436 54.60% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1318 19.31% 26.09%
18 2014-05-04 33.8 @ Fjolnir 3 1286 39.86% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1288 32.85% 27.29%
19 2014-07-27 34.3 @ Stjarnan 2 1471 56.17% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1337 18.01% 25.83%
20 2014-10-04 34.5 @ Breidablik 3 1358 41.45% Valur Reykjavik 0 1348 31.30% 27.24%
21 2014-09-14 35.0 KR Reykjavik 4 1460 46.78% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1357 26.26% 26.97%
22 2014-08-18 35.2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1303 51.82% Thor Akureyri 1 1210 21.70% 26.48%
23 2014-06-01 35.4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1507 65.26% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1273 11.19% 23.55%
24 2014-08-31 35.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1307 36.11% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1335 36.56% 27.32%
25 2014-08-31 35.7 Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1346 55.27% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1169 18.75% 25.98%