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2016 Úrvalsdeild Season

132 games

Final

Champion

FH Hafnarfjordur

43 points · 8th Title

Last Title: 2015.0

Relegated

Throttur Reykjavik

14 pts

Fylkir Reykjavik · 19 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fjolnir

5.38 points above expected

37 points · 31.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vikingur Olafsvik

7.87 points below expected

21 points · 28.87 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur Champion 22 12 7 3 43 32 17 +15 40.77 +2.23
2 Stjarnan 22 12 3 7 39 43 31 +12 36.05 +2.95
3 KR Reykjavik 22 11 5 6 38 29 20 +9 36.76 +1.24
4 Fjolnir 22 11 4 7 37 42 25 +17 31.62 +5.38
5 Valur Reykjavik 22 10 5 7 35 41 28 +13 31.83 +3.17
6 Breidablik 22 10 5 7 35 27 20 +7 36.46 -1.46
7 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 9 5 8 32 29 32 -3 27.35 +4.65
8 IA Akranes 22 10 1 11 31 28 33 -5 27.54 +3.46
9 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 6 5 11 23 23 27 -4 25.98 -2.98
10 Vikingur Olafsvik 22 5 6 11 21 23 38 -15 28.87 -7.87
11 Fylkir Reykjavik Relegated 22 4 7 11 19 25 40 -15 23.64 -4.64
12 Throttur Reykjavik Relegated 22 3 5 14 14 19 50 -31 20.98 -6.98

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fjolnir 37 31.62 +5.38
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 32 27.35 +4.65
3 IA Akranes 31 27.54 +3.46
4 Valur Reykjavik 35 31.83 +3.17
5 Stjarnan 39 36.05 +2.95

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Olafsvik 21 28.87 -7.87
2 Throttur Reykjavik 14 20.98 -6.98
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 19 23.64 -4.64
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 23 25.98 -2.98
5 Breidablik 35 36.46 -1.46

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 5 Jun 23 – Jul 24 1 in 427
2 Valur Reykjavik 4 Aug 18 – Sep 11 1 in 28
3 KR Reykjavik 5 Sep 10 – Oct 1 1 in 25
4 Stjarnan 4 Jul 11 – Aug 4 1 in 18
5 Fjolnir 3 Jun 5 – Jun 24 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Olafsvik 5 Jul 17 – Aug 15 1 in 107
2 KR Reykjavik 3 Jun 4 – Jun 23 1 in 43
3 Stjarnan 4 Aug 15 – Sep 11 1 in 41
4 Throttur Reykjavik 6 Jun 24 – Aug 3 1 in 39
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 May 2 – May 16 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 5 Jun 23 – Jul 24 1 in 26
2 Valur Reykjavik 7 Jul 24 – Sep 11 1 in 20
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 10 May 16 – Aug 3 1 in 19
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Sep 19 – Oct 1 1 in 19
5 Breidablik 6 Aug 15 – Sep 19 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Olafsvik 13 Jul 10 – Oct 1 1 in 271
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Sep 18 – Oct 1 1 in 16
3 Stjarnan 5 Aug 8 – Sep 11 1 in 16
4 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 4 – Jul 10 1 in 16
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 8 May 2 – Jun 24 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
FH Hafnarfjordur 1497 43 -7 6 9.7 -3.7
Stjarnan 1443 39 +14 12 8.5 +3.5
KR Reykjavik 1450 38 +22 15 9.0 +6.0
Fjolnir 1414 37 +17 9 7.1 +1.9
Valur Reykjavik 1402 35 -24 7 7.0 +0.0
Breidablik 1450 35 -10 5 8.1 -3.1
Vikingur Reykjavik 1337 32 +6 8 6.7 +1.3
IA Akranes 1347 31 -16 3 6.0 -3.0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1315 23 +15 5 4.2 +0.8
Vikingur Olafsvik 1316 21 -14 2 6.4 -4.4
Fylkir Reykjavik 1287 19 -4 5 5.8 -0.8
Throttur Reykjavik 1235 14 +2 5 5.1 -0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FJO FR IA IV KR STJ TR VR VO VR
Breidablik —
0-1-1
2.48
1-0-1
3.22
1-1-0
3.82
0-0-2
3.71
1-1-0
3.84
1-1-0
2.85
2-0-0
2.83
1-0-1
4.11
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
3.44
1-0-1
3.66
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-1-0
3.06
—
2-0-0
3.54
2-0-0
4.21
2-0-0
3.84
0-2-0
4.07
0-0-2
3.25
1-1-0
3.12
2-0-0
4.19
1-1-0
3.51
1-1-0
3.81
0-1-1
3.98
Fjolnir
1-0-1
2.33
0-0-2
2.03
—
0-2-0
3.46
1-0-1
3.09
2-0-0
3.20
1-0-1
2.42
0-0-2
2.55
2-0-0
3.71
1-1-0
2.71
1-1-0
2.92
2-0-0
3.15
Fylkir Reykjavik
0-1-1
1.77
0-0-2
1.42
0-2-0
2.11
—
0-1-1
2.50
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-2
1.86
0-0-2
1.89
1-1-0
3.11
0-1-1
2.23
1-0-1
2.35
1-1-0
2.41
IA Akranes
2-0-0
1.86
0-0-2
1.75
1-0-1
2.46
1-1-0
3.05
—
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.09
1-0-1
2.05
0-0-2
3.47
1-0-1
2.40
1-0-1
2.57
1-0-1
2.79
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-1-1
1.75
0-2-0
1.55
0-0-2
2.35
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-1
2.52
—
1-0-1
1.90
0-0-2
1.89
1-1-0
3.17
1-0-1
2.04
1-1-0
2.36
0-0-2
2.69
KR Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.69
2-0-0
2.31
1-0-1
3.13
2-0-0
3.73
1-0-1
3.48
1-0-1
3.68
—
1-1-0
2.66
1-1-0
3.92
1-0-1
3.05
1-1-0
3.42
0-1-1
3.45
Stjarnan
0-0-2
2.71
0-1-1
2.43
2-0-0
2.99
2-0-0
3.68
1-0-1
3.51
2-0-0
3.68
0-1-1
2.88
—
1-1-0
4.05
0-0-2
3.05
2-0-0
3.42
2-0-0
3.49
Throttur Reykjavik
1-0-1
1.51
0-0-2
1.44
0-0-2
1.88
0-1-1
2.44
2-0-0
2.08
0-1-1
2.38
0-1-1
1.68
0-1-1
1.56
—
0-0-2
1.85
0-1-1
2.07
0-0-2
2.07
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.40
0-1-1
2.05
0-1-1
2.83
1-1-0
3.31
1-0-1
3.14
1-0-1
3.51
1-0-1
2.50
2-0-0
2.49
2-0-0
3.72
—
1-0-1
2.84
1-1-0
3.07
Vikingur Olafsvik
1-0-1
2.12
0-1-1
1.77
0-1-1
2.61
1-0-1
3.20
1-0-1
2.98
0-1-1
3.19
0-1-1
2.13
0-0-2
2.14
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-1
2.70
—
0-1-1
2.91
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
1.92
1-1-0
1.62
0-0-2
2.39
0-1-1
3.13
1-0-1
2.76
2-0-0
2.86
1-1-0
2.12
0-0-2
2.07
2-0-0
3.50
0-1-1
2.47
1-1-0
2.63
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.56 +8.6
Allowed 0.72 -8.2
Differential 0.89 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.27%9.09%7.20%4.17%1.52%1.14%25.38%
19.09%12.88%7.95%3.03%1.52%0.38%34.85%
27.20%7.95%6.82%2.65%0.38%—25.00%
34.17%3.03%2.65%———9.85%
41.52%1.52%0.38%———3.41%
5+1.14%0.38%————1.52%
Total25.38%34.85%25.00%9.85%3.41%1.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.37 1.37 +0.00
SD 1.19 1.19 1.93
CV 0.87 0.87 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
19.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
213.64%9.09%————22.73%
39.09%4.55%————13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%45.45%9.09%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 0.91 +0.32
SD 1.02 0.92 1.64
CV 0.83 1.01 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%————13.64%
118.18%27.27%————45.45%
213.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
34.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%50.00%13.64%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 0.77 +0.68
SD 0.96 0.69 1.09
CV 0.66 0.89 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
1—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
213.64%13.64%13.64%4.55%——45.45%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total27.27%40.91%22.73%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 1.14 +0.77
SD 1.48 0.94 2.07
CV 0.77 0.83 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%9.09%13.64%——31.82%
14.55%13.64%9.09%—4.55%—31.82%
2—9.09%18.18%4.55%——31.82%
3———————
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total4.55%36.36%36.36%18.18%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.82 -0.68
SD 1.04 0.96 1.55
CV 0.91 0.53 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%—4.55%9.09%—27.27%
113.64%4.55%4.55%13.64%——36.36%
29.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
39.09%—————9.09%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total31.82%27.27%9.09%22.73%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.50 -0.23
SD 1.12 1.41 2.09
CV 0.88 0.94 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%22.73%4.55%——31.82%
113.64%22.73%18.18%———54.55%
2———————
34.55%—————4.55%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+———————
Total27.27%27.27%40.91%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.23 -0.18
SD 1.17 0.92 1.92
CV 1.12 0.75 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%4.55%———27.27%
118.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
24.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total36.36%40.91%18.18%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 0.91 +0.41
SD 1.17 0.87 1.40
CV 0.89 0.95 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%———4.55%
19.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%——36.36%
24.55%18.18%—9.09%4.55%—36.36%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total22.73%40.91%13.64%18.18%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.41 +0.55
SD 1.29 1.18 1.97
CV 0.66 0.84 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%9.09%40.91%
14.55%13.64%9.09%—9.09%—36.36%
24.55%—9.09%4.55%——18.18%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.09%22.73%36.36%9.09%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.27 -1.41
SD 0.89 1.55 2.06
CV 1.03 0.68 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%—4.55%4.55%—18.18%
14.55%4.55%18.18%———27.27%
213.64%4.55%13.64%———31.82%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%22.73%36.36%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.27 +0.59
SD 1.64 1.12 2.34
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%——31.82%
14.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%40.91%
2—9.09%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%36.36%27.27%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.73 -0.68
SD 0.95 1.28 1.64
CV 0.91 0.74 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%27.27%
19.09%4.55%13.64%———27.27%
29.09%9.09%13.64%———31.82%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%27.27%36.36%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.45 -0.14
SD 1.04 1.53 2.10
CV 0.79 1.06 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
FH Hafnarfjordur 1497 43 40.77 +2.23 70.0% 26 32 37 41 44 50 53
Breidablik 1450 35 36.46 -1.46 43.0% 23 26 32 37 41 47 49
KR Reykjavik 1450 38 36.76 +1.24 64.0% 22 26 33 36 41 47 54
Stjarnan 1443 39 36.05 +2.95 74.0% 24 27 31 35 40 47 54
Fjolnir 1414 37 31.62 +5.38 85.0% 16 19 28 32 35 41 49
Valur Reykjavik 1402 35 31.83 +3.17 72.0% 16 22 27 32 36 42 51
IA Akranes 1347 31 27.54 +3.46 74.0% 14 18 23 27 32 38 41
Vikingur Reykjavik 1337 32 27.35 +4.65 78.0% 16 17 23 26 31 38 42
Vikingur Olafsvik 1316 21 28.87 -7.87 11.0% 10 17 25 29 32 39 46
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1315 23 25.98 -2.98 35.0% 11 17 21 26 30 35 45
Fylkir Reykjavik 1287 19 23.64 -4.64 27.0% 10 14 19 24 27 34 38
Throttur Reykjavik 1235 14 20.98 -6.98 9.0% 8 12 18 21 24 29 36

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 4.5% * Slight Edge: 4.5% to 11% * Clear Edge: 11% to 16.5% * Strong Edge: 16.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.39%
Clear Edge
46.21%21.97%31.82%
Elo Value
Home Edge
158 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
050.36400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.33 goals
Neutral
-2+0.32+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.4
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
39%
FH Hafnarfjordur, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Comfortable
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.9 * Some Luck: 4.9 to 7.35 * Lucky: 7.35 to 9.8 * Wild Swing: 9.8 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.67 * Close: 1.67 to 2.5 * Off: 2.5 to 3.34 * Way Off: 3.34 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.97 * A Surprise: 0.97 to 1.55 * Several Surprises: 1.55 to 2.13 * Many Surprises: 2.13 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.39 points
As Expected
06.1215
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
02.095
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
85.00%
Fjolnir
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
9.00%
Throttur Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.85 * Wide Separation: 1.85 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 69% * Clear Edge: 69% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 80.5% * Clear Edge: 80.5% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 94% * Dominant: 94% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 55% * Some Drama: 55% to 61% * Frequent: 61% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 79.57
1.45
Moderate Separation
0.71.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%63%69%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Clear Edge
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.36 * Notable Separation: 0.36 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.33 * Some Carryover: 0.33 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.75 * Near-Lock: 0.75 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 21.5% * As Expected: 21.5% to 24.5% * Upset-Prone: 24.5% to 29% * Very Upset-Prone: 29% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Slight Separation
00.280.360.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.54
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.82
Near-Lock
00.330.590.751
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Upset-Prone
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Shaky Favorites
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.71
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.40
Very Underconfident
0.4781461.001.52185
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.074
Well Within Noise
00.1470.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
FH Hafnarfjordur39.00%22.00%19.00%9.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%2.00%————
Stjarnan13.00%16.00%13.00%16.00%12.00%10.00%11.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%——
KR Reykjavik16.00%17.00%17.00%13.00%13.00%10.00%3.00%4.00%2.00%4.00%1.00%—
Fjolnir6.00%8.00%6.00%17.00%10.00%16.00%11.00%5.00%9.00%4.00%6.00%2.00%
Valur Reykjavik3.00%12.00%9.00%10.00%19.00%3.00%11.00%12.00%6.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%
Breidablik17.00%12.00%13.00%18.00%15.00%7.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%—
Vikingur Reykjavik1.00%—6.00%10.00%4.00%8.00%10.00%13.00%15.00%12.00%11.00%10.00%
IA Akranes—6.00%5.00%2.00%5.00%17.00%8.00%12.00%12.00%13.00%10.00%10.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar1.00%2.00%3.00%1.00%5.00%6.00%13.00%15.00%12.00%16.00%18.00%8.00%
Vikingur Olafsvik4.00%5.00%5.00%2.00%9.00%13.00%16.00%10.00%14.00%9.00%7.00%6.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik——4.00%1.00%2.00%7.00%4.00%9.00%13.00%16.00%21.00%23.00%
Throttur Reykjavik———1.00%—1.00%4.00%8.00%12.00%15.00%21.00%38.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
FH Hafnarfjordur 100% —
Stjarnan 100% —
Breidablik 99.00% 1.00%
KR Reykjavik 99.00% 1.00%
Valur Reykjavik 93.00% 7.00%
Fjolnir 92.00% 8.00%
Vikingur Olafsvik 87.00% 13.00%
IA Akranes 80.00% 20.00%
Vikingur Reykjavik 79.00% 21.00%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 74.00% 26.00%
Fylkir Reykjavik 56.00% 44.00%
Throttur Reykjavik 41.00% 59.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2016-05-01 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-334.4 1301 1469 23.98% 21.56% 54.46%-0.75 -8.4 0
2016-05-01 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-034.4 1469 1301 54.46% 21.56% 23.98%+0.75 +8.4 3
2016-05-01 Fjolnir L 1-252.1 1374 1355 48.01% 22.69% 29.30%+0.44 -5.2 0
2016-05-01 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-152.1 1355 1374 29.30% 22.69% 48.01%-0.44 +5.2 3
2016-05-01 IA Akranes W 4-037.2 1311 1350 39.97% 23.29% 36.74%+0.07 +15.9 3
2016-05-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-437.2 1350 1311 36.74% 23.29% 39.97%-0.07 -15.9 0
2016-05-01 Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-255.7 1447 1366 56.13% 21.17% 22.70%+0.83 -5.9 0
2016-05-01 @ Breidablik W 2-155.7 1366 1447 22.70% 21.17% 56.13%-0.83 +5.9 3
2016-05-02 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-034.4 1428 1327 58.54% 20.53% 20.93%+0.96 +5.1 3
2016-05-02 @ Stjarnan L 0-234.4 1327 1428 20.93% 20.53% 58.54%-0.96 -5.1 0
2016-05-02 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-052.0 1433 1332 58.61% 20.51% 20.88%+0.96 -1.1 1
2016-05-02 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-052.0 1332 1433 20.88% 20.51% 58.61%-0.96 +1.1 1
2016-05-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-036.0 1360 1327 49.96% 22.41% 27.63%+0.53 +6.6 6
2016-05-07 @ Fjolnir L 0-236.0 1327 1360 27.63% 22.41% 49.96%-0.53 -6.6 3
2016-05-08 Breidablik L 1-247.0 1322 1441 29.28% 22.69% 48.04%-0.44 -3.5 0
2016-05-08 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-147.0 1441 1322 48.04% 22.69% 29.28%+0.44 +3.5 3
2016-05-08 IA Akranes W 2-143.5 1478 1335 63.36% 19.01% 17.64%+1.22 +2.1 6
2016-05-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-243.5 1335 1478 17.64% 19.01% 63.36%-1.22 -2.1 0
2016-05-08 KR Reykjavik D 2-262.5 1292 1432 26.93% 22.28% 50.79%-0.57 +0.5 1
2016-05-08 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-262.5 1432 1292 50.79% 22.28% 26.93%+0.57 -0.4 2
2016-05-08 Stjarnan L 1-247.9 1333 1433 31.60% 22.98% 45.43%-0.32 -3.7 1
2016-05-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-147.9 1433 1333 45.43% 22.98% 31.60%+0.32 +3.7 6
2016-05-08 Valur Reykjavik W 2-147.3 1371 1369 45.86% 22.94% 31.20%+0.34 +3.7 6
2016-05-08 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 1-247.3 1369 1371 31.20% 22.94% 45.86%-0.34 -3.7 0
2016-05-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-047.3 1432 1480 38.69% 23.30% 38.01%+0.01 +4.5 5
2016-05-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-147.3 1480 1432 38.01% 23.30% 38.69%-0.01 -4.6 6
2016-05-12 Fjolnir W 1-041.8 1332 1367 40.62% 23.27% 36.11%+0.10 +4.4 3
2016-05-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-141.8 1367 1332 36.11% 23.27% 40.62%-0.10 -4.4 6
2016-05-12 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-035.4 1365 1318 51.76% 22.11% 26.13%+0.61 +6.3 3
2016-05-12 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-235.4 1318 1365 26.13% 22.11% 51.76%-0.61 -6.3 0
2016-05-12 Throttur Reykjavik W 6-032.3 1437 1293 63.45% 18.97% 17.57%+1.23 +11.8 9
2016-05-12 @ Stjarnan L 0-632.3 1293 1437 17.57% 18.97% 63.45%-1.23 -11.8 1
2016-05-12 Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-155.0 1321 1375 37.76% 23.30% 38.94%-0.03 +0.0 4
2016-05-12 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-155.0 1375 1321 38.94% 23.30% 37.76%+0.03 -0.0 7
2016-05-13 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-037.2 1444 1329 60.22% 20.04% 19.75%+1.05 +2.5 6
2016-05-13 @ Breidablik L 0-137.2 1329 1444 19.75% 20.04% 60.22%-1.05 -2.5 1
2016-05-16 Fjolnir W 2-035.8 1475 1363 59.89% 20.14% 19.97%+1.03 +4.9 9
2016-05-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-235.8 1363 1475 19.97% 20.14% 59.89%-1.03 -4.9 6
2016-05-16 IA Akranes W 3-034.6 1375 1337 50.64% 22.30% 27.06%+0.56 +9.4 10
2016-05-16 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-334.6 1337 1375 27.06% 22.30% 50.64%-0.56 -9.4 3
2016-05-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-339.1 1312 1321 44.24% 23.08% 32.69%+0.26 -14.0 0
2016-05-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-039.1 1321 1312 32.69% 23.08% 44.24%-0.26 +14.0 7
2016-05-17 Breidablik W 2-044.3 1281 1447 24.22% 21.63% 54.15%-0.73 +11.4 4
2016-05-17 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-244.3 1447 1281 54.15% 21.63% 24.22%+0.73 -11.4 6
2016-05-17 Stjarnan D 1-159.2 1436 1449 43.79% 23.11% 33.10%+0.24 -0.3 6
2016-05-17 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-159.2 1449 1436 33.10% 23.11% 43.79%-0.24 +0.3 10
2016-05-17 Valur Reykjavik D 2-261.8 1326 1371 39.15% 23.30% 37.56%+0.03 -0.0 2
2016-05-17 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-261.8 1371 1326 37.56% 23.30% 39.15%-0.03 +0.0 4
2016-05-21 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-154.6 1327 1298 49.50% 22.48% 28.02%+0.51 -0.5 4
2016-05-21 @ IA Akranes D 1-154.6 1298 1327 28.02% 22.48% 49.50%-0.51 +0.5 1
2016-05-22 KR Reykjavik W 1-044.0 1436 1436 45.39% 22.98% 31.63%+0.31 +3.9 9
2016-05-22 @ Breidablik L 0-144.0 1436 1436 31.63% 22.98% 45.39%-0.31 -3.9 6
2016-05-22 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-138.2 1371 1292 55.83% 21.24% 22.93%+0.82 +6.8 7
2016-05-22 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-438.2 1292 1371 22.93% 21.24% 55.83%-0.82 -6.8 4
2016-05-22 Vikingur Olafsvik W 5-141.8 1358 1384 41.72% 23.23% 35.05%+0.15 +12.7 9
2016-05-22 @ Fjolnir L 1-541.8 1384 1358 35.05% 23.23% 41.72%-0.15 -12.7 10
2016-05-22 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-340.1 1335 1326 46.62% 22.86% 30.52%+0.37 -14.7 7
2016-05-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-040.1 1326 1335 30.52% 22.86% 46.62%-0.37 +14.7 5
2016-05-23 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-160.6 1449 1480 41.06% 23.26% 35.68%+0.12 -0.1 11
2016-05-23 @ Stjarnan D 1-160.6 1480 1449 35.68% 23.26% 41.06%-0.12 +0.1 10
2016-05-29 IA Akranes W 3-251.6 1341 1327 47.42% 22.77% 29.82%+0.41 +3.3 8
2016-05-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-351.6 1327 1341 29.82% 22.77% 47.42%-0.41 -3.3 4
2016-05-29 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-142.3 1285 1320 40.60% 23.27% 36.13%+0.10 -4.8 4
2016-05-29 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-042.3 1320 1285 36.13% 23.27% 40.60%-0.10 +4.8 10
2016-05-29 Valur Reykjavik W 2-146.6 1432 1378 52.71% 21.93% 25.36%+0.66 +3.1 9
2016-05-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-246.6 1378 1432 25.36% 21.93% 52.71%-0.66 -3.1 7
2016-05-30 Breidablik L 1-352.9 1449 1440 46.73% 22.84% 30.42%+0.38 -8.8 11
2016-05-30 @ Stjarnan W 3-152.9 1440 1449 30.42% 22.84% 46.73%-0.38 +8.8 12
2016-05-30 Fjolnir D 2-261.5 1298 1370 35.28% 23.24% 41.48%-0.14 +0.1 2
2016-05-30 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-261.5 1370 1298 41.48% 23.24% 35.28%+0.14 -0.1 10
2016-05-30 Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-159.1 1480 1372 59.41% 20.28% 20.31%+1.00 -1.0 11
2016-05-30 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-159.1 1372 1480 20.31% 20.28% 59.41%-1.00 +1.0 11
2016-06-04 KR Reykjavik W 1-045.9 1325 1435 30.35% 22.84% 46.81%-0.38 +5.4 13
2016-06-04 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-145.9 1435 1325 46.81% 22.84% 30.35%+0.38 -5.4 9
2016-06-05 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-148.8 1448 1479 41.12% 23.25% 35.63%+0.12 -4.8 12
2016-06-05 @ Breidablik W 1-048.8 1479 1448 35.63% 23.25% 41.12%-0.12 +4.8 14
2016-06-05 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-037.1 1373 1298 55.26% 21.38% 23.36%+0.79 +3.0 14
2016-06-05 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 0-137.1 1298 1373 23.36% 21.38% 55.26%-0.79 -3.0 2
2016-06-05 Stjarnan W 2-042.3 1375 1440 36.29% 23.27% 40.44%-0.09 +9.0 10
2016-06-05 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-242.3 1440 1375 40.44% 23.27% 36.29%+0.09 -9.0 11
2016-06-05 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-145.1 1324 1281 51.24% 22.20% 26.56%+0.59 -5.8 4
2016-06-05 @ IA Akranes W 1-045.1 1281 1324 26.56% 22.20% 51.24%-0.59 +5.8 7
2016-06-05 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-146.0 1370 1344 49.01% 22.56% 28.44%+0.48 +3.4 13
2016-06-05 @ Fjolnir L 1-246.0 1344 1370 28.44% 22.56% 49.01%-0.48 -3.4 8
2016-06-15 Breidablik L 0-238.2 1330 1443 30.02% 22.79% 47.19%-0.40 -7.1 13
2016-06-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-038.2 1443 1330 47.19% 22.79% 30.02%+0.40 +7.1 15
2016-06-15 KR Reykjavik W 3-148.5 1374 1430 37.51% 23.30% 39.19%-0.04 +7.6 16
2016-06-15 @ Fjolnir L 1-348.5 1430 1374 39.19% 23.30% 37.51%+0.04 -7.6 9
2016-06-16 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-143.9 1384 1484 31.62% 22.98% 45.40%-0.31 -3.9 10
2016-06-16 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-043.9 1484 1384 45.40% 22.98% 31.62%+0.31 +3.9 17
2016-06-23 IA Akranes L 1-254.8 1422 1318 58.94% 20.42% 20.65%+0.98 -6.1 9
2016-06-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-154.8 1318 1422 20.65% 20.42% 58.94%-0.98 +6.1 7
2016-06-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-037.1 1431 1323 59.31% 20.31% 20.38%+1.00 +2.6 14
2016-06-23 @ Stjarnan L 0-137.1 1323 1431 20.38% 20.31% 59.31%-1.00 -2.6 13
2016-06-24 Fjolnir L 0-536.5 1286 1381 32.29% 23.04% 44.67%-0.28 -17.7 7
2016-06-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 5-036.5 1381 1286 44.67% 23.04% 32.29%+0.28 +17.6 19
2016-06-24 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-034.8 1488 1295 68.61% 17.00% 14.39%+1.54 +1.8 20
2016-06-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-134.8 1295 1488 14.39% 17.00% 68.61%-1.54 -1.8 2
2016-06-24 Valur Reykjavik D 0-053.2 1451 1380 54.78% 21.49% 23.74%+0.76 -0.9 16
2016-06-24 @ Breidablik D 0-053.2 1380 1451 23.74% 21.49% 54.78%-0.76 +0.9 11
2016-06-24 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-039.2 1341 1376 40.58% 23.27% 36.15%+0.10 +8.3 11
2016-06-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-239.2 1376 1341 36.15% 23.27% 40.58%-0.10 -8.3 14
2016-06-28 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-248.0 1368 1269 58.23% 20.62% 21.15%+0.94 +2.4 17
2016-06-28 @ Vikingur Olafsvik L 2-348.0 1269 1368 21.15% 20.62% 58.23%-0.94 -2.4 7
2016-06-28 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-042.1 1294 1349 37.58% 23.30% 39.12%-0.03 +4.7 5
2016-06-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-142.1 1349 1294 39.12% 23.30% 37.58%+0.03 -4.7 11
2016-06-29 Stjarnan W 4-253.6 1324 1434 30.44% 22.85% 46.71%-0.37 +7.8 10
2016-06-29 @ IA Akranes L 2-453.6 1434 1324 46.71% 22.85% 30.44%+0.37 -7.8 14
2016-07-09 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-265.7 1490 1345 63.59% 18.93% 17.48%+1.24 -0.9 21
2016-07-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-265.7 1345 1490 17.48% 18.93% 63.59%-1.24 +0.9 12
2016-07-10 Vikingur Olafsvik D 0-052.0 1416 1370 51.68% 22.12% 26.20%+0.61 -0.7 10
2016-07-10 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-052.0 1370 1416 26.20% 22.12% 51.68%-0.61 +0.7 18
2016-07-11 Fjolnir W 2-148.1 1426 1399 49.11% 22.54% 28.35%+0.49 +3.4 17
2016-07-11 @ Stjarnan L 1-248.1 1399 1426 28.35% 22.54% 49.11%-0.49 -3.4 19
2016-07-11 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-443.5 1266 1298 41.00% 23.26% 35.74%+0.12 -11.2 7
2016-07-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 4-143.5 1298 1266 35.74% 23.26% 41.00%-0.12 +11.2 8
2016-07-11 IA Akranes L 0-149.5 1450 1332 60.50% 19.95% 19.55%+1.06 -6.7 16
2016-07-11 @ Breidablik W 1-049.5 1332 1450 19.55% 19.95% 60.50%-1.06 +6.6 13
2016-07-11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-144.4 1381 1320 53.51% 21.76% 24.72%+0.70 +3.0 14
2016-07-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-244.4 1320 1381 24.72% 21.76% 53.51%-0.70 -3.0 13
2016-07-16 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-157.5 1318 1489 23.70% 21.48% 54.82%-0.76 +0.8 14
2016-07-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-157.5 1489 1318 54.82% 21.48% 23.70%+0.76 -0.8 22
2016-07-17 Breidablik L 0-341.0 1396 1443 38.77% 23.30% 37.92%+0.02 -12.7 19
2016-07-17 @ Fjolnir W 3-041.0 1443 1396 37.92% 23.30% 38.77%-0.02 +12.7 19
2016-07-17 KR Reykjavik L 1-441.9 1309 1415 30.88% 22.90% 46.22%-0.35 -8.9 8
2016-07-17 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-141.9 1415 1309 46.22% 22.90% 30.88%+0.35 +8.9 13
2016-07-17 Stjarnan L 2-356.1 1371 1429 37.20% 23.29% 39.51%-0.05 -4.0 18
2016-07-17 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-256.1 1429 1371 39.51% 23.29% 37.20%+0.05 +4.0 20
2016-07-17 Valur Reykjavik W 2-149.1 1338 1384 39.03% 23.30% 37.67%+0.03 +4.3 16
2016-07-17 @ IA Akranes L 1-249.1 1384 1338 37.67% 23.30% 39.03%-0.03 -4.3 14
2016-07-18 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-033.0 1346 1255 57.22% 20.89% 21.89%+0.89 +5.3 15
2016-07-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-233.0 1255 1346 21.89% 20.89% 57.22%-0.89 -5.3 7
2016-07-24 Breidablik L 0-240.3 1367 1456 33.04% 23.11% 43.85%-0.24 -7.7 18
2016-07-24 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-040.3 1456 1367 43.85% 23.11% 33.04%+0.24 +7.7 22
2016-07-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-036.1 1343 1318 48.78% 22.59% 28.63%+0.47 +6.8 19
2016-07-24 @ IA Akranes L 0-236.1 1318 1343 28.63% 22.59% 48.78%-0.47 -6.8 14
2016-07-24 Stjarnan L 1-246.0 1300 1433 27.76% 22.44% 49.80%-0.52 -3.3 8
2016-07-24 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-146.0 1433 1300 49.80% 22.44% 27.76%+0.52 +3.3 23
2016-07-24 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-029.8 1488 1250 73.03% 15.06% 11.91%+1.82 +2.8 25
2016-07-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-229.8 1250 1488 11.91% 15.06% 73.03%-1.82 -2.8 7
2016-07-24 Valur Reykjavik D 2-263.0 1383 1380 45.92% 22.93% 31.15%+0.34 -0.3 20
2016-07-24 @ Fjolnir D 2-263.0 1380 1383 31.15% 22.93% 45.92%-0.34 +0.3 15
2016-07-25 KR Reykjavik W 1-044.7 1351 1424 35.10% 23.23% 41.67%-0.15 +4.9 18
2016-07-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-144.7 1424 1351 41.67% 23.23% 35.10%+0.15 -4.9 13
2016-08-03 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-345.3 1349 1491 26.78% 22.25% 50.98%-0.58 -5.6 19
2016-08-03 @ IA Akranes W 3-145.3 1491 1349 50.98% 22.25% 26.78%+0.58 +5.6 28
2016-08-03 Fjolnir L 0-238.7 1311 1383 35.42% 23.25% 41.33%-0.13 -8.1 14
2016-08-03 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-038.7 1383 1311 41.33% 23.25% 35.42%+0.13 +8.1 23
2016-08-03 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-157.6 1463 1297 65.86% 18.09% 16.05%+1.37 -1.3 23
2016-08-03 @ Breidablik D 1-157.6 1297 1463 16.05% 18.09% 65.86%-1.37 +1.3 9
2016-08-03 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-140.1 1420 1247 66.51% 17.84% 15.65%+1.41 +1.9 16
2016-08-03 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-240.1 1247 1420 15.65% 17.84% 66.51%-1.41 -1.9 7
2016-08-03 Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-144.0 1380 1359 48.34% 22.65% 29.01%+0.45 +6.0 18
2016-08-03 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-344.0 1359 1380 29.01% 22.65% 48.34%-0.45 -6.0 18
2016-08-04 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-034.4 1436 1356 56.05% 21.19% 22.76%+0.83 +8.0 26
2016-08-04 @ Stjarnan L 0-334.4 1356 1436 22.76% 21.19% 56.05%-0.83 -8.0 18
2016-08-07 IA Akranes W 4-034.6 1391 1344 51.78% 22.10% 26.12%+0.61 +11.9 26
2016-08-07 @ Fjolnir L 0-434.6 1344 1391 26.12% 22.10% 51.78%-0.61 -11.9 19
2016-08-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-145.8 1353 1303 52.12% 22.04% 25.84%+0.63 -5.9 18
2016-08-07 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-045.8 1303 1353 25.84% 22.04% 52.12%-0.63 +5.9 17
2016-08-07 Valur Reykjavik D 2-261.7 1298 1386 33.25% 23.12% 43.63%-0.23 +0.2 10
2016-08-07 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-261.7 1386 1298 43.63% 23.12% 33.25%+0.23 -0.2 19
2016-08-08 Breidablik W 3-150.9 1348 1462 29.88% 22.77% 47.35%-0.40 +8.9 21
2016-08-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-350.9 1462 1348 47.35% 22.77% 29.88%+0.40 -8.9 23
2016-08-08 KR Reykjavik L 0-152.2 1497 1421 55.36% 21.35% 23.28%+0.79 -6.2 28
2016-08-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-052.2 1421 1497 23.28% 21.35% 55.36%-0.79 +6.2 19
2016-08-08 Stjarnan D 1-155.8 1245 1444 21.17% 20.62% 58.21%-0.94 +1.0 8
2016-08-08 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-155.8 1444 1245 58.21% 20.62% 21.17%+0.94 -1.0 27
2016-08-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-145.2 1403 1490 33.23% 23.12% 43.65%-0.24 -4.1 26
2016-08-15 @ Fjolnir W 1-045.2 1490 1403 43.65% 23.12% 33.23%+0.24 +4.1 31
2016-08-15 KR Reykjavik L 1-352.6 1444 1428 47.66% 22.74% 29.61%+0.42 -8.9 27
2016-08-15 @ Stjarnan W 3-152.6 1428 1444 29.61% 22.74% 47.66%-0.42 +8.9 22
2016-08-15 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-030.1 1453 1246 70.03% 16.40% 13.57%+1.63 +3.2 26
2016-08-15 @ Breidablik L 0-230.1 1246 1453 13.57% 16.40% 70.03%-1.63 -3.2 8
2016-08-15 Vikingur Olafsvik W 3-036.4 1332 1347 43.35% 23.14% 33.51%+0.22 +11.3 22
2016-08-15 @ IA Akranes L 0-336.4 1347 1332 33.51% 23.14% 43.35%-0.22 -11.3 18
2016-08-18 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-250.5 1309 1299 46.93% 22.82% 30.25%+0.38 -5.1 17
2016-08-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-150.5 1299 1309 30.25% 22.82% 46.93%-0.38 +5.1 13
2016-08-18 Vikingur Reykjavik W 7-037.1 1386 1357 49.44% 22.49% 28.07%+0.50 +21.5 22
2016-08-18 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-737.1 1357 1386 28.07% 22.49% 49.44%-0.50 -21.5 21
2016-08-21 Breidablik D 1-159.4 1436 1456 42.68% 23.18% 34.13%+0.19 -0.2 23
2016-08-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-159.4 1456 1436 34.13% 23.18% 42.68%-0.19 +0.2 27
2016-08-21 Fjolnir D 2-262.4 1336 1399 36.58% 23.28% 40.14%-0.08 +0.1 19
2016-08-21 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 2-262.4 1399 1336 40.14% 23.28% 36.58%+0.08 -0.1 27
2016-08-22 IA Akranes L 0-338.0 1304 1343 39.91% 23.29% 36.81%+0.07 -13.0 13
2016-08-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-038.0 1343 1304 36.81% 23.29% 39.91%-0.07 +13.0 25
2016-08-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-144.9 1335 1304 49.66% 22.46% 27.88%+0.51 +3.3 24
2016-08-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-244.9 1304 1335 27.88% 22.46% 49.66%-0.51 -3.3 17
2016-08-22 Stjarnan W 3-255.6 1494 1435 53.44% 21.78% 24.78%+0.70 +2.8 34
2016-08-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-355.6 1435 1494 24.78% 21.78% 53.44%-0.70 -2.8 27
2016-08-22 Valur Reykjavik L 0-432.9 1243 1407 24.41% 21.68% 53.91%-0.72 -11.2 8
2016-08-22 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 4-032.9 1407 1243 53.91% 21.68% 24.41%+0.72 +11.2 25
2016-08-27 Stjarnan W 2-149.9 1457 1432 48.86% 22.58% 28.57%+0.47 +3.4 30
2016-08-27 @ Breidablik L 1-249.9 1432 1457 28.57% 22.58% 48.86%-0.47 -3.4 27
2016-08-28 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-237.6 1336 1497 24.70% 21.76% 53.54%-0.70 -6.0 19
2016-08-28 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-037.6 1497 1336 53.54% 21.76% 24.70%+0.70 +6.0 37
2016-08-28 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-155.9 1399 1291 59.31% 20.31% 20.38%+1.00 -1.0 28
2016-08-28 @ Fjolnir D 1-155.9 1291 1399 20.38% 20.31% 59.31%-1.00 +1.0 14
2016-08-28 KR Reykjavik W 2-041.4 1419 1436 43.00% 23.16% 33.84%+0.21 +7.8 28
2016-08-28 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-241.4 1436 1419 33.84% 23.16% 43.00%-0.21 -7.8 23
2016-08-28 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-154.3 1301 1232 54.60% 21.53% 23.87%+0.75 -0.8 18
2016-08-28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-154.3 1232 1301 23.87% 21.53% 54.60%-0.75 +0.8 9
2016-08-28 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-036.7 1356 1338 47.91% 22.70% 29.38%+0.43 +7.0 28
2016-08-28 @ IA Akranes L 0-236.7 1338 1356 29.38% 22.70% 47.91%-0.43 -7.0 24
2016-09-10 Fjolnir L 1-248.7 1331 1398 36.11% 23.27% 40.62%-0.10 -4.1 24
2016-09-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-148.7 1398 1331 40.62% 23.27% 36.11%+0.10 +4.1 31
2016-09-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-033.0 1428 1300 61.69% 19.57% 18.74%+1.13 +4.6 26
2016-09-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-233.0 1300 1428 18.74% 19.57% 61.69%-1.13 -4.5 18
2016-09-11 Breidablik D 1-162.2 1503 1460 51.29% 22.19% 26.52%+0.59 -0.6 38
2016-09-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-162.2 1460 1503 26.52% 22.19% 51.29%-0.59 +0.6 31
2016-09-11 IA Akranes W 3-148.5 1233 1363 27.99% 22.48% 49.53%-0.51 +9.2 12
2016-09-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-348.5 1363 1233 49.53% 22.48% 27.99%+0.51 -9.2 28
2016-09-11 Valur Reykjavik L 2-359.9 1428 1426 45.75% 22.95% 31.30%+0.33 -4.7 27
2016-09-11 @ Stjarnan W 3-259.9 1426 1428 31.30% 22.95% 45.75%-0.33 +4.7 31
2016-09-11 Vikingur Olafsvik W 2-147.6 1292 1330 40.10% 23.28% 36.62%+0.08 +4.2 17
2016-09-11 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-247.6 1330 1292 36.62% 23.28% 40.10%-0.08 -4.2 19
2016-09-15 Breidablik L 0-343.3 1431 1461 41.32% 23.25% 35.43%+0.13 -13.3 31
2016-09-15 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-043.3 1461 1431 35.43% 23.25% 41.32%-0.13 +13.3 34
2016-09-15 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-350.2 1296 1503 20.53% 20.37% 59.10%-0.99 -2.4 17
2016-09-15 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-250.2 1503 1296 59.10% 20.37% 20.53%+0.99 +2.4 41
2016-09-15 KR Reykjavik L 0-142.8 1354 1433 34.37% 23.20% 42.44%-0.18 -4.2 28
2016-09-15 @ IA Akranes W 1-042.8 1433 1354 42.44% 23.20% 34.37%+0.18 +4.2 29
2016-09-15 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-031.0 1402 1242 65.19% 18.35% 16.47%+1.33 +4.0 34
2016-09-15 @ Fjolnir L 0-231.0 1242 1402 16.47% 18.35% 65.19%-1.33 -4.0 12
2016-09-15 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-154.7 1326 1327 45.27% 22.99% 31.74%+0.31 -0.3 20
2016-09-15 @ Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-154.7 1327 1326 31.74% 22.99% 45.27%-0.31 +0.3 25
2016-09-16 Stjarnan L 1-246.0 1295 1424 28.27% 22.53% 49.20%-0.49 -3.4 18
2016-09-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-146.0 1424 1295 49.20% 22.53% 28.27%+0.49 +3.4 30
2016-09-18 Fjolnir W 3-254.1 1437 1406 49.74% 22.45% 27.81%+0.52 +3.1 32
2016-09-18 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-354.1 1406 1437 27.81% 22.45% 49.74%-0.52 -3.2 34
2016-09-18 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-261.3 1328 1294 50.07% 22.39% 27.53%+0.53 -0.4 26
2016-09-18 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-261.3 1294 1328 27.53% 22.39% 50.07%-0.53 +0.4 18
2016-09-18 Valur Reykjavik D 1-161.1 1505 1418 56.85% 20.99% 22.16%+0.87 -0.9 42
2016-09-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-161.1 1418 1505 22.16% 20.99% 56.85%-0.87 +0.9 32
2016-09-19 IA Akranes W 3-142.5 1427 1350 55.62% 21.29% 23.09%+0.81 +4.8 33
2016-09-19 @ Stjarnan L 1-342.5 1350 1427 23.09% 21.29% 55.62%-0.81 -4.9 28
2016-09-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-157.9 1474 1292 67.49% 17.45% 15.05%+1.47 -1.4 35
2016-09-19 @ Breidablik D 1-157.9 1292 1474 15.05% 17.45% 67.49%-1.47 +1.4 19
2016-09-19 Vikingur Olafsvik D 1-154.0 1238 1325 33.23% 23.12% 43.65%-0.24 +0.3 13
2016-09-19 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-154.0 1325 1238 43.65% 23.12% 33.23%+0.24 -0.3 21
2016-09-25 Breidablik W 1-047.7 1345 1473 28.32% 22.54% 49.14%-0.49 +5.6 31
2016-09-25 @ IA Akranes L 0-147.7 1473 1345 49.14% 22.54% 28.32%+0.49 -5.6 35
2016-09-25 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-049.6 1327 1504 23.18% 21.32% 55.50%-0.80 +6.2 29
2016-09-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-149.6 1504 1327 55.50% 21.32% 23.18%+0.80 -6.2 42
2016-09-25 KR Reykjavik L 0-140.8 1325 1440 29.79% 22.76% 47.45%-0.41 -3.7 21
2016-09-25 @ Vikingur Olafsvik W 1-040.8 1440 1325 47.45% 22.76% 29.79%+0.41 +3.7 35
2016-09-25 Stjarnan L 0-146.0 1403 1432 41.36% 23.24% 35.40%+0.13 -4.9 34
2016-09-25 @ Fjolnir W 1-046.0 1432 1403 35.40% 23.24% 41.36%-0.13 +4.9 36
2016-09-25 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-261.0 1294 1238 52.94% 21.88% 25.18%+0.67 -0.5 19
2016-09-25 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-261.0 1238 1294 25.18% 21.88% 52.94%-0.67 +0.5 14
2016-09-25 Valur Reykjavik W 4-041.2 1293 1419 28.61% 22.58% 48.80%-0.47 +19.9 22
2016-09-25 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-441.2 1419 1293 48.80% 22.58% 28.61%+0.47 -19.9 32
2016-10-01 Fjolnir L 0-345.9 1467 1398 54.63% 21.52% 23.85%+0.76 -16.7 35
2016-10-01 @ Breidablik W 3-045.9 1398 1467 23.85% 21.52% 54.63%-0.76 +16.7 37
2016-10-01 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-031.0 1444 1293 64.17% 18.72% 17.11%+1.27 +6.0 38
2016-10-01 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-331.0 1293 1444 17.11% 18.72% 64.17%-1.27 -6.0 19
2016-10-01 IA Akranes W 1-039.2 1399 1350 51.95% 22.07% 25.98%+0.62 +3.3 35
2016-10-01 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-139.2 1350 1399 25.98% 22.07% 51.95%-0.62 -3.3 31
2016-10-01 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-158.9 1498 1313 67.78% 17.34% 14.89%+1.48 -1.4 43
2016-10-01 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-158.9 1313 1498 14.89% 17.34% 67.78%-1.48 +1.4 23
2016-10-01 Vikingur Olafsvik W 4-138.2 1437 1321 60.19% 20.05% 19.76%+1.05 +5.9 39
2016-10-01 @ Stjarnan L 1-438.2 1321 1437 19.76% 20.05% 60.19%-1.05 -5.9 21
2016-10-01 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-245.9 1239 1333 32.31% 23.05% 44.65%-0.28 -3.8 14
2016-10-01 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-145.9 1333 1239 44.65% 23.05% 32.31%+0.28 +3.8 32

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2016-07-11 19.55% IA Akranes 1332 1 @ Breidablik 1450 0
2 2016-06-23 20.65% IA Akranes 1318 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1422 1
3 2016-05-01 22.70% Vikingur Olafsvik 1366 2 @ Breidablik 1447 1
4 2016-09-25 23.18% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1327 1 FH Hafnarfjordur 1504 0
5 2016-08-08 23.28% KR Reykjavik 1421 1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1497 0
6 2016-10-01 23.85% Fjolnir 1398 3 @ Breidablik 1467 0
7 2016-05-17 24.22% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1281 2 Breidablik 1447 0
8 2016-08-07 25.84% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1303 1 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1353 0
9 2016-06-05 26.56% Throttur Reykjavik 1281 1 @ IA Akranes 1324 0
10 2016-09-11 27.99% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1233 3 IA Akranes 1363 1
11 2016-09-25 28.32% @ IA Akranes 1345 1 Breidablik 1473 0
12 2016-09-25 28.61% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1293 4 Valur Reykjavik 1419 0
13 2016-05-01 29.30% Fjolnir 1355 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1374 1
14 2016-08-15 29.61% KR Reykjavik 1428 3 @ Stjarnan 1444 1
15 2016-08-08 29.88% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1348 3 Breidablik 1462 1
16 2016-08-18 30.25% Fylkir Reykjavik 1299 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1309 1
17 2016-06-04 30.35% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1325 1 KR Reykjavik 1435 0
18 2016-05-30 30.42% Breidablik 1440 3 @ Stjarnan 1449 1
19 2016-06-29 30.44% @ IA Akranes 1324 4 Stjarnan 1434 2
20 2016-05-22 30.52% Vikingur Reykjavik 1326 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1335 0
21 2016-09-11 31.30% Valur Reykjavik 1426 3 @ Stjarnan 1428 2
22 2016-05-16 32.69% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1321 3 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1312 0
23 2016-07-25 35.10% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1351 1 KR Reykjavik 1424 0
24 2016-09-25 35.40% Stjarnan 1432 1 @ Fjolnir 1403 0
25 2016-09-15 35.43% Breidablik 1461 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1431 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-08-18 21.55 @ Valur Reykjavik 7 1386 49.44% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1357 28.07% 22.49%
2 2016-09-25 19.89 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1293 28.61% Valur Reykjavik 0 1419 48.80% 22.58%
3 2016-06-24 17.65 Fjolnir 5 1381 44.67% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1286 32.29% 23.04%
4 2016-10-01 16.73 Fjolnir 3 1398 23.85% @ Breidablik 0 1467 54.63% 21.52%
5 2016-05-01 15.88 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1311 39.97% IA Akranes 0 1350 36.74% 23.29%
6 2016-05-22 14.67 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1326 30.52% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1335 46.62% 22.86%
7 2016-05-16 14.05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1321 32.69% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1312 44.24% 23.08%
8 2016-09-15 13.31 Breidablik 3 1461 35.43% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1431 41.32% 23.25%
9 2016-08-22 12.95 IA Akranes 3 1343 36.81% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1304 39.91% 23.29%
10 2016-05-22 12.74 @ Fjolnir 5 1358 41.72% Vikingur Olafsvik 1 1384 35.05% 23.23%
11 2016-07-17 12.67 Breidablik 3 1443 37.92% @ Fjolnir 0 1396 38.77% 23.30%
12 2016-08-07 11.93 @ Fjolnir 4 1391 51.78% IA Akranes 0 1344 26.12% 22.10%
13 2016-05-12 11.83 @ Stjarnan 6 1437 63.45% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1293 17.57% 18.97%
14 2016-05-17 11.43 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 1281 24.22% Breidablik 0 1447 54.15% 21.63%
15 2016-08-15 11.30 @ IA Akranes 3 1332 43.35% Vikingur Olafsvik 0 1347 33.51% 23.14%
16 2016-08-22 11.21 Valur Reykjavik 4 1407 53.91% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1243 24.41% 21.68%
17 2016-07-11 11.16 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1298 35.74% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1266 41.00% 23.26%
18 2016-05-16 9.43 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 3 1375 50.64% IA Akranes 0 1337 27.06% 22.30%
19 2016-09-11 9.19 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 1233 27.99% IA Akranes 1 1363 49.53% 22.48%
20 2016-06-05 9.01 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1375 36.29% Stjarnan 0 1440 40.44% 23.27%
21 2016-07-17 8.91 KR Reykjavik 4 1415 46.22% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1309 30.88% 22.90%
22 2016-08-15 8.90 KR Reykjavik 3 1428 29.61% @ Stjarnan 1 1444 47.66% 22.74%
23 2016-08-08 8.86 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1348 29.88% Breidablik 1 1462 47.35% 22.77%
24 2016-05-30 8.77 Breidablik 3 1440 30.42% @ Stjarnan 1 1449 46.73% 22.84%
25 2016-05-01 8.44 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1469 54.46% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1301 23.98% 21.56%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-07-09 65.7 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1490 63.59% Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1345 17.48% 18.93%
2 2016-07-24 63.0 @ Fjolnir 2 1383 45.92% Valur Reykjavik 2 1380 31.15% 22.93%
3 2016-05-08 62.5 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 1292 26.93% KR Reykjavik 2 1432 50.79% 22.28%
4 2016-08-21 62.4 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 2 1336 36.58% Fjolnir 2 1399 40.14% 23.28%
5 2016-09-11 62.2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1503 51.29% Breidablik 1 1460 26.52% 22.19%
6 2016-05-17 61.8 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1326 39.15% Valur Reykjavik 2 1371 37.56% 23.30%
7 2016-08-07 61.7 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1298 33.25% Valur Reykjavik 2 1386 43.63% 23.12%
8 2016-05-30 61.5 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1298 35.28% Fjolnir 2 1370 41.48% 23.24%
9 2016-09-18 61.3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1328 50.07% Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1294 27.53% 22.39%
10 2016-09-18 61.1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1505 56.85% Valur Reykjavik 1 1418 22.16% 20.99%
11 2016-09-25 61.0 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1294 52.94% Throttur Reykjavik 2 1238 25.18% 21.88%
12 2016-05-23 60.6 @ Stjarnan 1 1449 41.06% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1480 35.68% 23.26%
13 2016-09-11 59.9 Valur Reykjavik 3 1426 31.30% @ Stjarnan 2 1428 45.75% 22.95%
14 2016-08-21 59.4 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1436 42.68% Breidablik 1 1456 34.13% 23.18%
15 2016-05-17 59.2 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1436 43.79% Stjarnan 1 1449 33.10% 23.11%
16 2016-05-30 59.1 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1480 59.41% Vikingur Olafsvik 1 1372 20.31% 20.28%
17 2016-10-01 58.9 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1498 67.78% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1313 14.89% 17.34%
18 2016-09-19 57.9 @ Breidablik 1 1474 67.49% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1292 15.05% 17.45%
19 2016-08-03 57.6 @ Breidablik 1 1463 65.86% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1297 16.05% 18.09%
20 2016-07-16 57.5 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1318 23.70% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1489 54.82% 21.48%
21 2016-07-17 56.1 Stjarnan 3 1429 39.51% @ Vikingur Olafsvik 2 1371 37.20% 23.29%
22 2016-08-28 55.9 @ Fjolnir 1 1399 59.31% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1291 20.38% 20.31%
23 2016-08-08 55.8 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 1245 21.17% Stjarnan 1 1444 58.21% 20.62%
24 2016-05-01 55.7 Vikingur Olafsvik 2 1366 22.70% @ Breidablik 1 1447 56.13% 21.17%
25 2016-08-22 55.6 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1494 53.44% Stjarnan 2 1435 24.78% 21.78%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-07-24 29.8 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1488 73.03% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1250 11.91% 15.06%
2 2016-08-15 30.1 @ Breidablik 2 1453 70.03% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1246 13.57% 16.40%
3 2016-09-15 31.0 @ Fjolnir 2 1402 65.19% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1242 16.47% 18.35%
4 2016-10-01 31.0 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1444 64.17% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1293 17.11% 18.72%
5 2016-05-12 32.3 @ Stjarnan 6 1437 63.45% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1293 17.57% 18.97%
6 2016-08-22 32.9 Valur Reykjavik 4 1407 53.91% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1243 24.41% 21.68%
7 2016-07-18 33.0 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1346 57.22% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1255 21.89% 20.89%
8 2016-09-10 33.0 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1428 61.69% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1300 18.74% 19.57%
9 2016-05-01 34.4 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1469 54.46% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1301 23.98% 21.56%
10 2016-05-02 34.4 @ Stjarnan 2 1428 58.54% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1327 20.93% 20.53%
11 2016-08-04 34.4 @ Stjarnan 3 1436 56.05% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1356 22.76% 21.19%
12 2016-05-16 34.6 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 3 1375 50.64% IA Akranes 0 1337 27.06% 22.30%
13 2016-08-07 34.6 @ Fjolnir 4 1391 51.78% IA Akranes 0 1344 26.12% 22.10%
14 2016-06-24 34.8 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1488 68.61% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1295 14.39% 17.00%
15 2016-05-12 35.4 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1365 51.76% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1318 26.13% 22.11%
16 2016-05-16 35.8 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1475 59.89% Fjolnir 0 1363 19.97% 20.14%
17 2016-05-07 36.0 @ Fjolnir 2 1360 49.96% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1327 27.63% 22.41%
18 2016-07-24 36.1 @ IA Akranes 2 1343 48.78% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1318 28.63% 22.59%
19 2016-08-15 36.4 @ IA Akranes 3 1332 43.35% Vikingur Olafsvik 0 1347 33.51% 23.14%
20 2016-06-24 36.5 Fjolnir 5 1381 44.67% @ Throttur Reykjavik 0 1286 32.29% 23.04%
21 2016-08-28 36.7 @ IA Akranes 2 1356 47.91% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1338 29.38% 22.70%
22 2016-06-05 37.1 @ Vikingur Olafsvik 1 1373 55.26% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1298 23.36% 21.38%
23 2016-06-23 37.1 @ Stjarnan 1 1431 59.31% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1323 20.38% 20.31%
24 2016-08-18 37.1 @ Valur Reykjavik 7 1386 49.44% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1357 28.07% 22.49%
25 2016-05-01 37.2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1311 39.97% IA Akranes 0 1350 36.74% 23.29%