2019 Úrvalsdeild Season

132 games

Final

Champion

KR Reykjavik

52 points · 13th Title

Last Title: 2013.0

Relegated

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

10 pts

Grindavik · 20 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

14.95 points above expected

52 points · 37.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

8.79 points below expected

10 points · 18.79 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik Champion 22 16 4 2 52 44 23 +21 37.05 +14.95
2 Breidablik 22 11 5 6 38 45 31 +14 40.15 -2.15
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 22 11 4 7 37 40 36 +4 33.07 +3.93
4 Stjarnan 22 9 8 5 35 40 34 +6 34.46 +0.54
5 KA Akureyri 22 9 4 9 31 34 34 0 27.91 +3.09
6 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 5 9 29 38 34 +4 35.91 -6.91
7 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 7 7 8 28 37 35 +2 24.72 +3.28
8 Fylkir Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28 38 44 -6 27.99 +0.01
9 HK Kopavogur 22 7 6 9 27 29 29 0 28.79 -1.79
10 IA Akranes 22 7 6 9 27 27 32 -5 31.25 -4.25
11 Grindavik Relegated 22 3 11 8 20 17 28 -11 21.50 -1.50
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Relegated 22 2 4 16 10 23 52 -29 18.79 -8.79

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 1460 52 37.05 +14.95 99.6% 16 27 33 37 41 47 58
Breidablik 1399 38 40.15 -2.15 38.5% 20 31 36 40 44 49 59
Stjarnan 1349 35 34.46 +0.54 56.6% 9 25 31 34 38 44 53
FH Hafnarfjordur 1337 37 33.07 +3.93 77.1% 13 24 29 33 37 43 53
Valur Reykjavik 1335 29 35.91 -6.91 13.6% 13 26 32 36 40 46 57
KA Akureyri 1299 31 27.91 +3.09 73.4% 7 18 24 28 32 37 50
Vikingur Reykjavik 1284 28 24.72 +3.28 75.2% 5 16 21 25 28 34 47
HK Kopavogur 1263 27 28.79 -1.79 41.3% 11 19 25 29 33 38 49
Fylkir Reykjavik 1209 28 27.99 +0.01 54.8% 9 19 24 28 32 38 52
IA Akranes 1175 27 31.25 -4.25 26.0% 12 22 27 31 35 41 52
Grindavik 1125 20 21.50 -1.50 43.4% 4 13 18 21 25 31 48
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1073 10 18.79 -8.79 4.5% 3 11 15 19 22 28 41

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR GRI HK IA IV KA KR STJ VR VR
Breidablik
2-0-0
3.31
1-0-1
3.79
1-1-0
4.08
0-1-1
3.91
1-0-1
3.46
1-1-0
4.59
2-0-0
3.71
0-0-2
2.83
1-1-0
3.51
1-1-0
3.06
1-0-1
3.93
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-0-2
2.16
1-1-0
3.20
1-1-0
3.74
1-0-1
3.22
1-0-1
2.86
2-0-0
4.10
1-0-1
3.24
0-0-2
2.18
1-1-0
2.59
2-0-0
2.33
1-1-0
3.53
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
1.70
0-1-1
2.26
1-0-1
3.36
2-0-0
2.46
0-1-1
2.78
2-0-0
3.08
1-0-1
2.51
0-1-1
2.10
0-0-2
2.61
0-0-2
2.23
1-1-0
2.82
Grindavik
0-1-1
1.43
0-1-1
1.75
1-0-1
2.10
0-2-0
1.94
0-2-0
1.94
1-1-0
2.90
0-0-2
2.14
1-0-1
1.50
0-2-0
1.51
0-1-1
1.63
0-1-1
2.63
HK Kopavogur
1-1-0
1.59
1-0-1
2.25
0-0-2
2.99
0-2-0
3.53
1-1-0
2.56
2-0-0
3.62
1-1-0
2.81
1-0-1
1.93
0-1-1
2.18
0-0-2
2.27
0-0-2
3.14
IA Akranes
1-0-1
2.01
1-0-1
2.60
1-1-0
2.68
0-2-0
3.53
0-1-1
2.93
1-0-1
4.08
1-1-0
3.05
0-0-2
2.38
1-0-1
2.66
1-0-1
2.29
0-1-1
3.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-1-1
0.97
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
2.41
0-1-1
2.58
0-0-2
1.85
1-0-1
1.42
0-1-1
1.69
0-0-2
1.50
0-0-2
1.41
1-0-1
1.31
0-1-1
2.24
KA Akureyri
0-0-2
1.77
1-0-1
2.23
1-0-1
2.96
2-0-0
3.33
0-1-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.41
1-1-0
3.79
0-1-1
1.96
2-0-0
1.83
1-0-1
1.89
1-0-1
3.13
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.63
2-0-0
3.29
1-1-0
3.37
1-0-1
4.01
1-0-1
3.54
2-0-0
3.12
2-0-0
3.99
1-1-0
3.51
0-2-0
2.79
2-0-0
3.19
2-0-0
3.69
Stjarnan
0-1-1
1.97
0-1-1
2.87
2-0-0
2.85
0-2-0
3.99
1-1-0
3.30
1-0-1
2.82
2-0-0
4.11
0-0-2
3.65
0-2-0
2.69
1-1-0
2.55
2-0-0
3.69
Valur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.40
0-0-2
3.14
2-0-0
3.25
1-1-0
3.86
2-0-0
3.19
1-0-1
3.18
1-0-1
4.20
1-0-1
3.58
0-0-2
2.27
0-1-1
2.91
0-2-0
3.83
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
1.57
0-1-1
1.94
0-1-1
2.64
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
2.33
1-1-0
2.46
1-1-0
3.24
1-0-1
2.34
0-0-2
1.80
0-0-2
1.79
0-2-0
1.66

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.66 +9.6
Allowed 0.43 -8.9
Differential 0.90 +7.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.30%6.82%5.68%1.52%0.38%19.70%
16.82%12.12%7.95%4.17%1.52%1.14%33.71%
25.68%7.95%6.82%4.55%1.14%0.38%26.52%
31.52%4.17%4.55%1.52%1.52%13.26%
40.38%1.52%1.14%1.52%0.38%4.92%
5+1.14%0.38%0.38%1.89%
Total19.70%33.71%26.52%13.26%4.92%1.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.21 1.21 1.56
CV 0.78 0.78
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
19.09%9.09%9.09%27.27%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
313.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
5+
Total22.73%36.36%22.73%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.41 +0.64
SD 1.36 1.14 1.53
CV 0.67 0.81
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
19.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
24.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%13.64%22.73%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%22.73%36.36%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.64 +0.18
SD 1.40 1.29 1.56
CV 0.77 0.79
Max 6 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%18.18%
19.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%27.27%
29.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
39.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%27.27%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total9.09%36.36%27.27%4.55%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 2.00 -0.27
SD 1.20 1.41 1.86
CV 0.70 0.71
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.73%9.09%9.09%4.55%45.45%
14.55%18.18%9.09%31.82%
29.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
3
4
5+
Total27.27%36.36%27.27%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 1.27 -0.50
SD 0.81 1.20 1.14
CV 1.05 0.94
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
14.55%18.18%13.64%4.55%40.91%
213.64%9.09%4.55%9.09%36.36%
3
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total22.73%36.36%27.27%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.32 +0.00
SD 0.95 0.99 1.41
CV 0.72 0.75
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
14.55%18.18%9.09%9.09%4.55%45.45%
213.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%
4
5+
Total22.73%36.36%22.73%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.45 -0.23
SD 0.81 1.26 1.60
CV 0.66 0.87
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%13.64%31.82%
113.64%18.18%9.09%4.55%45.45%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total22.73%40.91%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.36 -1.32
SD 1.05 1.26 1.32
CV 1.00 0.53
Max 4 6 +1
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
19.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%36.36%
213.64%4.55%9.09%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
49.09%9.09%
5+
Total27.27%27.27%18.18%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.55 +0.00
SD 1.18 1.34 1.60
CV 0.77 0.86
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
118.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
29.09%13.64%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%13.64%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total36.36%31.82%27.27%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.05 +0.95
SD 1.20 1.05 1.36
CV 0.60 1.00
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%
14.55%18.18%9.09%31.82%
24.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%40.91%27.27%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.55 +0.27
SD 1.33 1.06 1.64
CV 0.73 0.68
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%
113.64%13.64%27.27%
24.55%9.09%13.64%13.64%40.91%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%31.82%27.27%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.55 +0.18
SD 1.16 1.06 1.33
CV 0.67 0.68
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%22.73%
14.55%13.64%4.55%9.09%31.82%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
39.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%45.45%13.64%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.59 +0.09
SD 1.43 1.14 1.41
CV 0.85 0.72
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 52 37.05 +14.95
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 37 33.07 +3.93
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 28 24.72 +3.28
4 KA Akureyri 31 27.91 +3.09
5 Stjarnan 35 34.46 +0.54

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 10 18.79 -8.79
2 Valur Reykjavik 29 35.91 -6.91
3 IA Akranes 27 31.25 -4.25
4 Breidablik 38 40.15 -2.15
5 HK Kopavogur 27 28.79 -1.79

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 8 May 20 – Jul 6 1 in 960
2 IA Akranes 4 May 11 – May 26 1 in 134
3 HK Kopavogur 3 Jul 7 – Jul 22 1 in 47
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Aug 6 – Aug 18 1 in 24
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Jun 14 – Jun 23 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 9 Jun 15 – Aug 11 1 in 124
2 KA Akureyri 4 Jun 23 – Jul 14 1 in 47
3 IA Akranes 4 Jul 28 – Aug 18 1 in 29
4 Breidablik 2 Jul 1 – Jul 7 1 in 22
5 Valur Reykjavik 3 May 20 – Jun 2 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grindavik 6 May 5 – Jun 1 1 in 39
2 KR Reykjavik 11 May 20 – Aug 6 1 in 33
3 HK Kopavogur 7 Jul 7 – Aug 18 1 in 27
4 IA Akranes 6 Apr 27 – May 26 1 in 24
5 KA Akureyri 7 Aug 11 – Sep 28 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 6 Aug 11 – Sep 22 1 in 47
2 HK Kopavogur 6 Aug 18 – Sep 28 1 in 29
3 Breidablik 4 Jul 1 – Jul 29 1 in 26
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 5 May 5 – May 26 1 in 13
5 IA Akranes 6 Jul 15 – Aug 18 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
KR Reykjavik21.42%20.70%17.27%12.89%9.63%6.81%4.69%3.19%1.94%0.93%0.46%0.07%
Breidablik40.29%22.61%13.74%9.73%5.88%3.45%2.24%1.06%0.62%0.27%0.09%0.02%
FH Hafnarfjordur6.73%10.59%12.25%13.50%13.70%12.60%10.34%8.34%5.75%3.85%1.84%0.51%
Stjarnan9.84%13.61%15.59%14.35%13.44%10.40%8.34%6.27%4.20%2.45%1.20%0.31%
KA Akureyri1.20%2.36%4.42%6.14%8.86%11.01%12.72%13.88%14.47%12.39%8.29%4.26%
Valur Reykjavik14.35%17.11%15.95%14.83%12.02%9.49%6.73%4.40%2.90%1.50%0.54%0.18%
Vikingur Reykjavik0.34%0.77%1.82%2.85%4.31%6.60%9.71%13.04%15.41%18.55%16.30%10.30%
Fylkir Reykjavik1.08%2.52%4.28%5.96%7.73%10.94%12.51%14.09%15.01%13.18%8.71%3.99%
HK Kopavogur1.34%3.36%5.21%7.61%9.84%11.93%13.77%13.82%12.78%10.32%7.02%3.00%
IA Akranes3.34%6.11%9.00%11.07%12.29%13.33%12.77%11.32%9.31%6.65%3.55%1.26%
Grindavik0.06%0.25%0.38%0.82%1.71%2.56%4.45%7.44%11.17%17.70%28.22%25.24%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar0.01%0.01%0.09%0.25%0.59%0.88%1.73%3.15%6.44%12.21%23.78%50.86%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.21%
Clear Edge
47.73%25.76%26.52%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 74.83 Elo pts.
243 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.38 goals
Neutral
-2+0.31+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.1
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
KR Reykjavik, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.64/gm
Comfortable
00.181/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.54 * Some Luck: 4.54 to 6.81 * Lucky: 6.81 to 9.08 * Wild Swing: 9.08 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.5 * Close: 1.5 to 2.26 * Off: 2.26 to 3.01 * Way Off: 3.01 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.72 * A Surprise: 0.72 to 1.15 * Several Surprises: 1.15 to 1.58 * Many Surprises: 1.58 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.86 points
Some Luck
05.6714
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Close
01.884
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.63%
KR Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
4.55%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.45
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
67%
Very Frequent
0%66%100%
Blowouts
Expected
10%
Occasional
0%11%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.38
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.61
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.69
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.86
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.083
Well Within Noise
00.1440.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Breidablik 99.89% 0.11%
KR Reykjavik 99.47% 0.53%
Valur Reykjavik 99.28% 0.72%
Stjarnan 98.49% 1.51%
FH Hafnarfjordur 97.65% 2.35%
IA Akranes 95.19% 4.81%
HK Kopavogur 89.98% 10.02%
KA Akureyri 87.45% 12.55%
Fylkir Reykjavik 87.30% 12.70%
Vikingur Reykjavik 73.40% 26.60%
Grindavik 46.54% 53.46%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 25.36% 74.64%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2019-04-26 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-3 1373 1204 64.2% 23.8% 12.0% -3.0 1
2019-04-26 @ Valur Reykjavik D 3-3 1204 1373 12.0% 23.8% 64.2% +3.0 1
2019-04-27 Breidablik L 0-2 1163 1365 21.2% 26.4% 52.4% -19.3 0
2019-04-27 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1365 1163 52.4% 26.4% 21.2% +19.3 3
2019-04-27 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1268 1244 49.8% 26.7% 23.5% -54.6 0
2019-04-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1244 1268 23.5% 26.7% 49.8% +54.6 3
2019-04-27 HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1323 1235 56.9% 25.7% 17.4% +16.2 3
2019-04-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1235 1323 17.4% 25.7% 56.9% -16.2 0
2019-04-27 KA Akureyri W 3-1 1261 1247 48.7% 26.8% 24.5% +18.8 3
2019-04-27 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1247 1261 24.5% 26.8% 48.7% -18.8 0
2019-04-27 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1344 1282 54.2% 26.1% 19.7% -3.1 1
2019-04-27 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1282 1344 19.7% 26.1% 54.2% +3.1 1
2019-05-04 Breidablik D 2-2 1219 1384 25.1% 26.9% 48.0% +1.5 1
2019-05-04 @ HK Kopavogur D 2-2 1384 1219 48.0% 26.9% 25.1% -1.5 4
2019-05-05 IA Akranes D 2-2 1299 1280 49.3% 26.7% 24.0% -1.6 4
2019-05-05 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1280 1299 24.0% 26.7% 49.3% +1.6 4
2019-05-05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1285 1213 55.2% 26.0% 18.8% +25.2 4
2019-05-05 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1213 1285 18.8% 26.0% 55.2% -25.2 0
2019-05-05 Stjarnan D 1-1 1143 1340 21.7% 26.5% 51.8% +2.6 1
2019-05-05 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1340 1143 51.8% 26.5% 21.7% -2.6 2
2019-05-05 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1228 1370 27.9% 27.1% 45.0% +18.3 3
2019-05-05 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1370 1228 45.0% 27.1% 27.9% -18.3 1
2019-05-06 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1207 1339 29.0% 27.1% 43.8% +1.2 2
2019-05-06 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1339 1207 43.8% 27.1% 29.0% -1.2 4
2019-05-10 HK Kopavogur W 1-0 1338 1220 59.7% 25.1% 15.2% +7.6 5
2019-05-10 @ Stjarnan L 0-1 1220 1338 15.2% 25.1% 59.7% -7.6 1
2019-05-10 KA Akureyri W 3-2 1338 1247 57.2% 25.6% 17.2% +7.6 7
2019-05-10 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1247 1338 17.2% 25.6% 57.2% -7.6 3
2019-05-10 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1383 1208 64.6% 23.7% 11.7% +9.6 7
2019-05-10 @ Breidablik L 1-3 1208 1383 11.7% 23.7% 64.6% -9.6 2
2019-05-11 Grindavik D 2-2 1188 1146 51.9% 26.5% 21.6% -2.0 1
2019-05-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1146 1188 21.6% 26.5% 51.9% +2.0 2
2019-05-11 IA Akranes L 1-2 1351 1282 55.0% 26.0% 19.0% -20.5 1
2019-05-11 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1282 1351 19.0% 26.0% 55.0% +20.5 7
2019-05-12 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1310 1297 48.5% 26.8% 24.7% -2.0 5
2019-05-12 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1297 1310 24.7% 26.8% 48.5% +2.0 5
2019-05-15 Breidablik L 0-1 1239 1392 26.5% 27.0% 46.5% -12.2 3
2019-05-15 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1392 1239 46.5% 27.0% 26.5% +12.2 10
2019-05-15 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1302 1346 41.2% 27.3% 31.5% +26.4 10
2019-05-15 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1346 1302 31.5% 27.3% 41.2% -26.4 7
2019-05-15 Stjarnan L 3-4 1199 1345 27.3% 27.0% 45.7% -10.9 2
2019-05-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-3 1345 1199 45.7% 27.0% 27.3% +10.9 8
2019-05-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1212 1186 50.2% 26.7% 23.2% +20.7 4
2019-05-16 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-2 1186 1212 23.2% 26.7% 50.2% -20.7 1
2019-05-16 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1148 1308 25.7% 26.9% 47.4% +18.0 5
2019-05-16 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1308 1148 47.4% 26.9% 25.7% -18.0 5
2019-05-16 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1299 1331 42.8% 27.2% 30.0% -17.6 5
2019-05-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1331 1299 30.0% 27.2% 42.8% +17.6 4
2019-05-19 IA Akranes L 0-1 1404 1328 55.6% 25.9% 18.5% -22.0 10
2019-05-19 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1328 1404 18.5% 25.9% 55.6% +22.0 13
2019-05-19 KA Akureyri L 0-2 1356 1227 60.8% 24.8% 14.4% -45.0 8
2019-05-19 @ Stjarnan W 2-0 1227 1356 14.4% 24.8% 60.8% +45.0 6
2019-05-19 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1165 1188 44.0% 27.1% 28.8% -1.3 2
2019-05-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1188 1165 28.8% 27.1% 44.0% +1.3 3
2019-05-20 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1166 1282 31.2% 27.2% 41.6% +17.2 8
2019-05-20 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1282 1166 41.6% 27.2% 31.2% -17.2 5
2019-05-20 HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1290 1233 53.6% 26.2% 20.2% +8.8 8
2019-05-20 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1233 1290 20.2% 26.2% 53.6% -8.8 4
2019-05-20 Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 1319 1349 43.1% 27.2% 29.7% +11.9 10
2019-05-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1349 1319 29.7% 27.2% 43.1% -12.0 4
2019-05-25 Grindavik D 0-0 1224 1183 51.9% 26.5% 21.7% -3.0 5
2019-05-25 @ HK Kopavogur D 0-0 1183 1224 21.7% 26.5% 51.9% +3.0 9
2019-05-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1272 1164 58.8% 25.3% 15.9% +14.9 9
2019-05-25 @ KA Akureyri L 0-2 1164 1272 15.9% 25.3% 58.8% -14.9 2
2019-05-25 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1189 1299 32.0% 27.3% 40.8% -14.1 3
2019-05-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1299 1189 40.8% 27.3% 32.0% +14.1 11
2019-05-26 Breidablik L 0-1 1337 1382 40.9% 27.3% 31.8% -17.0 4
2019-05-26 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1382 1337 31.8% 27.3% 40.9% +17.0 13
2019-05-26 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1264 1331 38.0% 27.3% 34.7% -0.2 6
2019-05-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1331 1264 34.7% 27.3% 38.0% +0.2 11
2019-05-26 Stjarnan W 2-0 1350 1311 51.6% 26.5% 21.9% +19.8 16
2019-05-26 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1311 1350 21.9% 26.5% 51.6% -19.8 8
2019-06-01 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1186 1175 48.4% 26.8% 24.8% -2.3 10
2019-06-01 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1175 1186 24.8% 26.8% 48.4% +2.3 4
2019-06-02 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1399 1331 54.8% 26.0% 19.2% +21.6 16
2019-06-02 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1331 1399 19.2% 26.0% 54.8% -21.6 11
2019-06-02 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1221 1264 41.3% 27.3% 31.4% -16.1 5
2019-06-02 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1264 1221 31.4% 27.3% 41.3% +16.1 9
2019-06-02 IA Akranes W 3-2 1149 1370 19.4% 26.1% 54.5% +19.3 5
2019-06-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1370 1149 54.5% 26.1% 19.4% -19.3 16
2019-06-02 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1313 1287 50.1% 26.7% 23.2% +11.0 14
2019-06-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1287 1313 23.2% 26.7% 50.1% -11.0 9
2019-06-02 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1292 1320 43.3% 27.2% 29.5% +12.5 11
2019-06-02 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1320 1292 29.5% 27.2% 43.3% -12.5 4
2019-06-14 Breidablik W 4-3 1280 1421 28.0% 27.1% 44.9% +16.0 12
2019-06-14 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 3-4 1421 1280 44.9% 27.1% 28.0% -16.0 16
2019-06-14 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1177 1205 43.3% 27.2% 29.5% +12.6 7
2019-06-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1205 1177 29.5% 27.2% 43.3% -12.5 5
2019-06-14 Stjarnan D 2-2 1310 1304 47.6% 26.9% 25.5% -1.4 12
2019-06-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1304 1310 25.5% 26.9% 47.6% +1.4 12
2019-06-15 Grindavik W 2-1 1276 1184 57.2% 25.6% 17.2% +8.0 12
2019-06-15 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1184 1276 17.2% 25.6% 57.2% -8.0 10
2019-06-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 5-1 1307 1168 61.7% 24.6% 13.8% +20.6 7
2019-06-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-5 1168 1307 13.8% 24.6% 61.7% -20.6 5
2019-06-15 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1351 1324 50.2% 26.6% 23.1% -32.8 16
2019-06-15 @ IA Akranes W 3-1 1324 1351 23.1% 26.6% 50.2% +32.8 17
2019-06-18 Breidablik L 1-3 1306 1405 33.4% 27.3% 39.4% -23.8 12
2019-06-18 @ Stjarnan W 3-1 1405 1306 39.4% 27.3% 33.4% +23.8 19
2019-06-19 Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 1357 1328 50.4% 26.6% 22.9% +9.7 20
2019-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1328 1357 22.9% 26.6% 50.4% -9.7 7
2019-06-22 HK Kopavogur L 0-2 1318 1193 60.4% 24.9% 14.7% -44.7 16
2019-06-22 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1193 1318 14.7% 24.9% 60.4% +44.7 8
2019-06-22 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1429 1148 72.3% 20.6% 7.1% +5.7 22
2019-06-22 @ Breidablik L 1-3 1148 1429 7.1% 20.6% 72.3% -5.7 5
2019-06-23 Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-1 1282 1296 45.1% 27.1% 27.9% +37.9 15
2019-06-23 @ Stjarnan L 1-5 1296 1282 27.9% 27.1% 45.1% -37.9 12
2019-06-23 Grindavik W 1-0 1318 1176 61.9% 24.5% 13.6% +6.8 10
2019-06-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1176 1318 13.6% 24.5% 61.9% -6.8 10
2019-06-23 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1308 1366 39.2% 27.3% 33.5% -15.5 12
2019-06-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1366 1308 33.5% 27.3% 39.2% +15.5 23
2019-06-23 Vikingur Reykjavik L 3-4 1284 1190 57.5% 25.6% 17.0% -19.8 12
2019-06-23 @ KA Akureyri W 4-3 1190 1284 17.0% 25.6% 57.5% +19.8 10
2019-06-30 KA Akureyri W 3-2 1258 1264 46.2% 27.0% 26.8% +11.0 15
2019-06-30 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-3 1264 1258 26.8% 27.0% 46.2% -11.0 12
2019-06-30 Stjarnan L 0-2 1142 1320 23.7% 26.7% 49.6% -21.1 5
2019-06-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1320 1142 49.6% 26.7% 23.7% +21.1 18
2019-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1238 1325 35.0% 27.3% 37.6% -14.3 8
2019-06-30 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1325 1238 37.6% 27.3% 35.0% +14.3 13
2019-07-01 Breidablik W 2-0 1382 1434 40.0% 27.3% 32.8% +27.1 26
2019-07-01 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1434 1382 32.8% 27.3% 40.0% -27.1 22
2019-07-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1169 1293 30.1% 27.2% 42.7% +1.2 11
2019-07-01 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1293 1169 42.7% 27.2% 30.1% -1.2 13
2019-07-01 IA Akranes D 0-0 1209 1273 38.4% 27.3% 34.3% -0.4 11
2019-07-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1273 1209 34.3% 27.3% 38.4% +0.4 17
2019-07-04 KA Akureyri W 3-1 1339 1253 56.7% 25.7% 17.6% +14.2 16
2019-07-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1253 1339 17.6% 25.7% 56.7% -14.2 12
2019-07-05 Grindavik D 0-0 1341 1170 64.3% 23.8% 11.9% -5.5 19
2019-07-05 @ Stjarnan D 0-0 1170 1341 11.9% 23.8% 64.3% +5.5 12
2019-07-06 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1274 1269 47.5% 26.9% 25.6% +22.5 20
2019-07-06 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1269 1274 25.6% 26.9% 47.5% -22.5 15
2019-07-06 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1121 1409 14.2% 24.8% 61.0% -6.7 5
2019-07-06 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1409 1121 61.0% 24.8% 14.2% +6.7 29
2019-07-07 HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1407 1223 65.4% 23.4% 11.2% -24.0 22
2019-07-07 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1223 1407 11.2% 23.4% 65.4% +24.0 11
2019-07-08 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1292 1209 56.3% 25.8% 17.9% +8.8 16
2019-07-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1209 1292 17.9% 25.8% 56.3% -8.8 11
2019-07-13 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1114 1301 22.8% 26.6% 50.6% -10.2 5
2019-07-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1301 1114 50.6% 26.6% 22.8% +10.2 19
2019-07-14 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1247 1239 48.0% 26.9% 25.1% +11.1 14
2019-07-14 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1239 1247 25.1% 26.9% 48.0% -11.1 12
2019-07-15 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1200 1247 40.8% 27.3% 32.0% -0.7 12
2019-07-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1247 1200 32.0% 27.3% 40.8% +0.7 16
2019-07-15 IA Akranes D 1-1 1176 1296 30.6% 27.2% 42.2% +1.0 13
2019-07-15 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1296 1176 42.2% 27.2% 30.6% -1.0 21
2019-07-21 IA Akranes D 1-1 1228 1295 37.9% 27.3% 34.8% -0.2 13
2019-07-21 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1295 1228 34.8% 27.3% 37.9% +0.2 22
2019-07-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1248 1104 62.1% 24.5% 13.4% +18.5 19
2019-07-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-3 1104 1248 13.4% 24.5% 62.1% -18.5 5
2019-07-21 Stjarnan D 2-2 1416 1335 56.1% 25.8% 18.1% -2.6 30
2019-07-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1335 1416 18.1% 25.8% 56.1% +2.5 20
2019-07-21 Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1200 1353 26.4% 27.0% 46.6% +1.3 13
2019-07-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1353 1200 46.6% 27.0% 26.4% -1.3 17
2019-07-22 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1258 1311 40.0% 27.3% 32.7% +27.1 17
2019-07-22 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-2 1311 1258 32.7% 27.3% 40.0% -27.1 19
2019-07-22 Grindavik D 0-0 1383 1177 67.1% 22.8% 10.0% -6.0 23
2019-07-22 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1177 1383 10.0% 22.8% 67.1% +6.0 14
2019-07-28 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1227 1284 39.5% 27.3% 33.2% +14.5 16
2019-07-28 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1284 1227 33.2% 27.3% 39.5% -14.6 19
2019-07-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1183 1085 57.8% 25.5% 16.7% +7.8 17
2019-07-28 @ Grindavik L 1-2 1085 1183 16.7% 25.5% 57.8% -7.8 5
2019-07-28 KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1266 1413 27.3% 27.0% 45.7% -28.9 19
2019-07-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-1 1413 1266 45.7% 27.0% 27.3% +28.9 33
2019-07-28 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1295 1352 39.4% 27.3% 33.3% -15.5 22
2019-07-28 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1352 1295 33.3% 27.3% 39.4% +15.6 20
2019-07-29 Breidablik W 3-2 1201 1377 23.9% 26.7% 49.4% +17.7 16
2019-07-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-3 1377 1201 49.4% 26.7% 23.9% -17.7 23
2019-07-29 Stjarnan D 1-1 1285 1338 40.0% 27.3% 32.7% -0.6 18
2019-07-29 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1338 1285 32.7% 27.3% 40.0% +0.6 21
2019-08-03 HK Kopavogur L 0-1 1077 1285 20.7% 26.3% 53.0% -10.0 5
2019-08-03 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1285 1077 53.0% 26.3% 20.7% +10.0 21
2019-08-06 Grindavik W 5-2 1442 1191 70.3% 21.5% 8.2% +8.1 36
2019-08-06 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-5 1191 1442 8.2% 21.5% 70.3% -8.1 17
2019-08-06 IA Akranes W 1-0 1269 1280 45.6% 27.0% 27.4% +12.6 22
2019-08-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1280 1269 27.4% 27.0% 45.6% -12.6 22
2019-08-07 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1367 1237 60.9% 24.8% 14.3% +7.2 23
2019-08-07 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1237 1367 14.3% 24.8% 60.9% -7.2 19
2019-08-07 KA Akureyri W 4-0 1360 1242 59.7% 25.1% 15.2% +27.2 26
2019-08-07 @ Breidablik L 0-4 1242 1360 15.2% 25.1% 59.7% -27.2 16
2019-08-07 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1338 1218 60.0% 25.0% 15.0% +7.1 24
2019-08-07 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1218 1338 15.0% 25.0% 60.0% -7.1 16
2019-08-11 Breidablik L 1-2 1267 1387 30.7% 27.2% 42.1% -12.9 22
2019-08-11 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1387 1267 42.1% 27.2% 30.7% +12.9 29
2019-08-11 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1375 1282 57.4% 25.6% 17.1% -20.2 23
2019-08-11 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 1282 1375 17.1% 25.6% 57.4% +20.2 25
2019-08-11 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1211 1067 62.1% 24.5% 13.4% +11.0 19
2019-08-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1067 1211 13.4% 24.5% 62.1% -11.0 5
2019-08-11 KR Reykjavik W 4-1 1295 1450 26.2% 27.0% 46.8% +43.7 24
2019-08-11 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-4 1450 1295 46.8% 27.0% 26.2% -43.7 36
2019-08-11 Stjarnan W 4-2 1215 1346 29.2% 27.2% 43.6% +26.1 19
2019-08-11 @ KA Akureyri L 2-4 1346 1215 43.6% 27.2% 29.2% -26.1 24
2019-08-12 Grindavik W 2-1 1230 1183 52.6% 26.4% 21.1% +9.6 22
2019-08-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1183 1230 21.1% 26.4% 52.6% -9.6 17
2019-08-18 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1302 1240 54.2% 26.1% 19.7% +9.0 28
2019-08-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1240 1302 19.7% 26.1% 54.2% -9.0 22
2019-08-18 HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1173 1339 25.1% 26.9% 48.1% +2.0 18
2019-08-18 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1339 1173 48.1% 26.9% 25.1% -2.0 25
2019-08-18 IA Akranes W 3-1 1319 1254 54.5% 26.1% 19.4% +15.5 27
2019-08-18 @ Stjarnan L 1-3 1254 1319 19.4% 26.1% 54.5% -15.5 22
2019-08-18 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1056 1241 23.0% 26.6% 50.3% +2.4 6
2019-08-18 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1241 1056 50.3% 26.6% 23.0% -2.4 20
2019-08-19 Valur Reykjavik D 3-3 1400 1354 52.3% 26.4% 21.3% -1.7 30
2019-08-19 @ Breidablik D 3-3 1354 1400 21.3% 26.4% 52.3% +1.7 24
2019-08-19 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1406 1222 65.4% 23.4% 11.2% +5.6 39
2019-08-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1222 1406 11.2% 23.4% 65.4% -5.6 19
2019-08-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1239 1059 65.1% 23.5% 11.3% +5.4 25
2019-08-24 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1059 1239 11.3% 23.5% 65.1% -5.4 6
2019-08-25 Grindavik W 1-0 1217 1175 51.9% 26.4% 21.6% +10.4 22
2019-08-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1175 1217 21.6% 26.4% 51.9% -10.4 18
2019-08-25 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1238 1412 24.2% 26.8% 49.0% +2.4 21
2019-08-25 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1412 1238 49.0% 26.8% 24.2% -2.4 40
2019-08-26 Breidablik L 2-4 1311 1398 35.1% 27.3% 37.6% -22.1 28
2019-08-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-2 1398 1311 37.6% 27.3% 35.1% +22.1 33
2019-08-26 HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1231 1337 32.5% 27.3% 40.2% +15.0 25
2019-08-26 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-3 1337 1231 40.2% 27.3% 32.5% -15.0 25
2019-08-26 Stjarnan D 2-2 1356 1335 49.5% 26.7% 23.7% -1.7 25
2019-08-26 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1335 1356 23.7% 26.7% 49.5% +1.7 28
2019-08-31 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1337 1289 52.6% 26.4% 21.0% -34.2 28
2019-08-31 @ Stjarnan W 3-1 1289 1337 21.0% 26.4% 52.6% +34.2 31
2019-08-31 KA Akureyri L 0-2 1165 1241 36.6% 27.3% 36.1% -29.4 18
2019-08-31 @ Grindavik W 2-0 1241 1165 36.1% 27.3% 36.6% +29.4 24
2019-09-01 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-3 1420 1246 64.6% 23.7% 11.7% +5.1 36
2019-09-01 @ Breidablik L 3-4 1246 1420 11.7% 23.7% 64.6% -5.1 25
2019-09-01 IA Akranes W 2-0 1410 1244 63.9% 23.9% 12.2% +11.6 43
2019-09-01 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1244 1410 12.2% 23.9% 63.9% -11.6 25
2019-09-01 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1053 1354 13.4% 24.4% 62.2% +22.9 9
2019-09-01 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1354 1053 62.2% 24.4% 13.4% -22.9 25
2019-09-01 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1322 1227 57.5% 25.6% 17.0% -37.0 25
2019-09-01 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-1 1227 1322 17.0% 25.6% 57.5% +37.0 25
2019-09-15 HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1270 1285 45.1% 27.1% 27.8% -1.5 25
2019-09-15 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1285 1270 27.8% 27.1% 45.1% +1.5 26
2019-09-16 Grindavik D 1-1 1233 1135 57.8% 25.5% 16.7% -3.7 26
2019-09-16 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1135 1233 16.7% 25.5% 57.8% +3.7 19
2019-09-16 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1332 1421 34.7% 27.3% 38.0% -15.0 25
2019-09-16 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1421 1332 38.0% 27.3% 34.7% +15.0 46
2019-09-16 Stjarnan D 1-1 1425 1302 60.2% 24.9% 14.8% -4.2 37
2019-09-16 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1302 1425 14.8% 24.9% 60.2% +4.2 29
2019-09-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-4 1323 1076 70.0% 21.7% 8.3% +5.5 34
2019-09-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 4-6 1076 1323 8.3% 21.7% 70.0% -5.5 9
2019-09-18 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1241 1264 43.9% 27.1% 29.0% +21.4 28
2019-09-18 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1264 1241 29.0% 27.1% 43.9% -21.4 25
2019-09-22 Breidablik D 1-1 1071 1421 10.7% 23.2% 66.2% +5.2 10
2019-09-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1421 1071 66.2% 23.2% 10.7% -5.2 38
2019-09-22 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1436 1328 58.8% 25.3% 15.9% +7.1 49
2019-09-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1328 1436 15.9% 25.3% 58.8% -7.1 34
2019-09-22 IA Akranes D 1-1 1286 1229 53.6% 26.2% 20.2% -3.0 27
2019-09-22 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1229 1286 20.2% 26.2% 53.6% +3.0 27
2019-09-22 KA Akureyri L 2-3 1243 1269 43.6% 27.2% 29.3% -16.0 25
2019-09-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1269 1243 29.3% 27.2% 43.6% +15.9 28
2019-09-22 Stjarnan L 1-4 1262 1307 41.1% 27.3% 31.7% -39.3 28
2019-09-22 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-1 1307 1262 31.7% 27.3% 41.1% +39.3 32
2019-09-22 Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1139 1317 23.8% 26.7% 49.5% +1.7 20
2019-09-22 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1317 1139 49.5% 26.7% 23.8% -1.7 26
2019-09-28 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-2 1285 1223 54.2% 26.1% 19.7% +14.0 31
2019-09-28 @ KA Akureyri L 2-4 1223 1285 19.7% 26.1% 54.2% -14.0 28
2019-09-28 Grindavik W 3-0 1321 1141 65.1% 23.5% 11.3% +15.6 37
2019-09-28 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1141 1321 11.3% 23.5% 65.1% -15.6 20
2019-09-28 HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1315 1283 50.8% 26.6% 22.6% +20.3 29
2019-09-28 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1283 1315 22.6% 26.6% 50.8% -20.3 27
2019-09-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1346 1076 71.5% 21.0% 7.5% +3.3 35
2019-09-28 @ Stjarnan L 2-3 1076 1346 7.5% 21.0% 71.5% -3.3 10
2019-09-28 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1416 1443 43.4% 27.2% 29.5% -16.8 38
2019-09-28 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1443 1416 29.5% 27.2% 43.4% +16.8 52
2019-09-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-5 1232 1227 47.6% 26.9% 25.5% -57.2 27
2019-09-28 @ IA Akranes W 5-1 1227 1232 25.5% 26.9% 47.6% +57.2 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-07-07 11.15% HK Kopavogur 1223 2 @ Breidablik 1407 1
2 2019-09-01 13.40% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1053 2 Valur Reykjavik 1354 1
3 2019-05-19 14.38% KA Akureyri 1227 2 @ Stjarnan 1356 0
4 2019-06-22 14.67% HK Kopavogur 1193 2 @ IA Akranes 1318 0
5 2019-09-01 16.95% Vikingur Reykjavik 1227 3 @ HK Kopavogur 1322 1
6 2019-06-23 16.97% Vikingur Reykjavik 1190 4 @ KA Akureyri 1284 3
7 2019-08-11 17.05% FH Hafnarfjordur 1282 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1375 2
8 2019-05-19 18.47% IA Akranes 1328 1 @ Breidablik 1404 0
9 2019-05-11 18.99% IA Akranes 1282 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1351 1
10 2019-06-02 19.44% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1149 3 IA Akranes 1370 2
11 2019-08-31 21.04% FH Hafnarfjordur 1289 3 @ Stjarnan 1337 1
12 2019-06-15 23.12% KR Reykjavik 1324 3 @ IA Akranes 1351 1
13 2019-04-27 23.52% Fylkir Reykjavik 1244 3 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1268 0
14 2019-07-29 23.87% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1201 3 Breidablik 1377 2
15 2019-09-28 25.52% Vikingur Reykjavik 1227 5 @ IA Akranes 1232 1
16 2019-05-16 25.73% @ Grindavik 1148 2 KR Reykjavik 1308 1
17 2019-08-11 26.25% @ HK Kopavogur 1295 4 KR Reykjavik 1450 1
18 2019-05-05 27.90% @ KA Akureyri 1228 1 Valur Reykjavik 1370 0
19 2019-06-14 28.01% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1280 4 Breidablik 1421 3
20 2019-08-11 29.23% @ KA Akureyri 1215 4 Stjarnan 1346 2
21 2019-09-22 29.28% KA Akureyri 1269 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1243 2
22 2019-09-28 29.46% KR Reykjavik 1443 2 @ Breidablik 1416 1
23 2019-05-16 29.98% Valur Reykjavik 1331 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1299 0
24 2019-05-20 31.18% @ Grindavik 1166 1 Fylkir Reykjavik 1282 0
25 2019-06-02 31.44% Fylkir Reykjavik 1264 2 @ HK Kopavogur 1221 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-09-28 57.21 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 1227 25.52% @ IA Akranes 1 1232 47.58% 26.90%
2 2019-04-27 54.62 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1244 23.52% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1268 49.79% 26.69%
3 2019-05-19 44.97 KA Akureyri 2 1227 14.38% @ Stjarnan 0 1356 60.82% 24.80%
4 2019-06-22 44.71 HK Kopavogur 2 1193 14.67% @ IA Akranes 0 1318 60.44% 24.90%
5 2019-08-11 43.69 @ HK Kopavogur 4 1295 26.25% KR Reykjavik 1 1450 46.79% 26.96%
6 2019-09-22 39.33 Stjarnan 4 1307 31.67% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1262 41.07% 27.25%
7 2019-06-23 37.92 @ Stjarnan 5 1282 45.07% Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1296 27.86% 27.07%
8 2019-09-01 37.02 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1227 16.95% @ HK Kopavogur 1 1322 57.50% 25.55%
9 2019-08-31 34.17 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1289 21.04% @ Stjarnan 1 1337 52.60% 26.36%
10 2019-06-15 32.82 KR Reykjavik 3 1324 23.12% @ IA Akranes 1 1351 50.24% 26.64%
11 2019-08-31 29.45 KA Akureyri 2 1241 36.06% @ Grindavik 0 1165 36.62% 27.32%
12 2019-07-28 28.87 KR Reykjavik 4 1413 45.72% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1 1266 27.25% 27.03%
13 2019-08-07 27.19 @ Breidablik 4 1360 59.73% KA Akureyri 0 1242 15.20% 25.06%
14 2019-07-01 27.14 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1382 39.95% Breidablik 0 1434 32.76% 27.28%
15 2019-07-22 27.12 @ HK Kopavogur 2 1258 39.98% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1311 32.73% 27.28%
16 2019-05-15 26.37 @ IA Akranes 2 1302 41.21% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1346 31.54% 27.25%
17 2019-08-11 26.09 @ KA Akureyri 4 1215 29.23% Stjarnan 2 1346 43.62% 27.15%
18 2019-05-05 25.24 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1285 55.20% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1213 18.83% 25.97%
19 2019-07-07 23.99 HK Kopavogur 2 1223 11.15% @ Breidablik 1 1407 65.41% 23.44%
20 2019-06-18 23.82 Breidablik 3 1405 39.35% @ Stjarnan 1 1306 33.35% 27.30%
21 2019-09-01 22.93 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1053 13.40% Valur Reykjavik 1 1354 62.16% 24.44%
22 2019-07-06 22.46 @ IA Akranes 2 1274 47.46% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1269 25.63% 26.91%
23 2019-08-26 22.10 Breidablik 4 1398 37.61% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1311 35.07% 27.32%
24 2019-05-19 22.00 IA Akranes 1 1328 18.47% @ Breidablik 0 1404 55.64% 25.89%
25 2019-06-02 21.61 @ Breidablik 4 1399 54.80% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1331 19.17% 26.03%