Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 2020
‹ ›

2020 Úrvalsdeild Season

107 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

44 points · 11th Title

Last Title: 2018.0

Relegated

Fjolnir

6 pts

Grotta · 8 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

9.94 points above expected

44 points · 34.06 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fjolnir

9.44 points below expected

6 points · 15.44 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik Champion 18 14 2 2 44 50 17 +33 34.06 +9.94
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 11 3 4 36 37 23 +14 28.47 +7.53
3 Breidablik 18 9 4 5 31 37 27 +10 31.00 +0.00
4 Stjarnan 17 8 7 2 31 27 20 +7 29.37 +1.63
5 KR Reykjavik 17 8 4 5 28 30 21 +9 31.96 -3.96
6 Fylkir Reykjavik 18 9 1 8 28 27 30 -3 21.21 +6.79
7 KA Akureyri 18 3 12 3 21 20 21 -1 22.20 -1.20
8 IA Akranes 18 6 3 9 21 39 43 -4 21.14 -0.14
9 HK Kopavogur 18 5 5 8 20 29 36 -7 21.55 -1.55
10 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 3 8 7 17 25 30 -5 23.17 -6.17
11 Grotta Relegated 18 1 5 12 8 15 43 -28 11.60 -3.60
12 Fjolnir Relegated 18 0 6 12 6 15 40 -25 15.44 -9.44

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1415 44 39.50 +4.50 80.7% 20 30 36 40 43 49 59
FH Hafnarfjordur 1322 36 33.91 +2.09 67.3% 11 24 30 34 38 43 56
KR Reykjavik 1316 28 38.76 -10.76 3.6% 17 29 35 39 43 48 60
Breidablik 1292 31 36.44 -5.44 20.4% 15 27 32 36 40 46 58
Stjarnan 1276 31 36.17 -5.17 21.9% 14 27 32 36 40 46 58
KA Akureyri 1199 21 27.64 -6.64 14.2% 9 18 24 28 31 37 50
Vikingur Reykjavik 1167 17 28.61 -11.61 2.2% 5 19 25 29 32 38 52
Fylkir Reykjavik 1162 28 26.65 +1.35 63.3% 8 17 23 27 30 36 48
HK Kopavogur 1157 20 26.99 -6.99 12.7% 10 18 23 27 31 36 50
IA Akranes 1146 21 26.58 -5.58 19.4% 7 17 23 26 30 36 47
Fjolnir 1030 6 20.88 -14.88 0.2% 4 12 17 21 24 30 43
Grotta 984 8 17.04 -9.04 3.8% 2 9 14 17 20 26 38

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FJO FR GRO HK IA KA KR STJ VR VR
Breidablik —
0-1-1
3.19
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
4.05
0-0-1
1.84
1-0-0
1.69
0-2-0
3.46
0-0-2
2.68
1-0-0
1.29
0-1-1
2.25
1-0-0
1.52
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-1-0
2.22
 —
2-0-0
3.88
1-0-1
3.26
1-0-0
1.96
2-0-0
3.15
2-0-0
3.48
0-1-0
1.59
1-0-0
1.01
0-1-1
2.63
0-0-1
1.06
1-0-1
3.22
Fjolnir
0-0-2
1.56
0-0-2
1.59
 —
0-0-2
2.38
0-1-1
3.22
0-0-1
1.11
0-0-1
0.95
0-2-0
2.01
0-1-0
0.63
0-0-2
1.78
0-0-1
0.67
0-2-0
2.18
Fylkir Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.85
1-0-1
2.16
2-0-0
3.03
 —
2-0-0
3.55
1-0-0
1.37
0-0-1
1.40
1-0-1
2.72
1-0-1
1.79
0-1-1
1.90
0-0-1
0.97
1-0-0
1.20
Grotta
0-0-2
1.43
0-0-1
0.78
1-1-0
2.19
0-0-2
1.89
 —
0-1-1
1.92
0-0-2
1.92
0-0-2
1.71
0-1-0
0.46
0-1-0
0.62
0-0-2
1.21
0-1-0
0.76
HK Kopavogur
1-0-0
0.88
0-0-2
2.26
1-0-0
1.60
0-0-1
1.33
1-1-0
3.51
 —
1-1-0
2.69
0-1-0
1.23
1-1-0
1.69
0-0-2
1.91
0-0-2
2.01
0-1-1
2.57
IA Akranes
0-0-1
1.02
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-0
1.77
1-0-0
1.31
2-0-0
3.51
0-1-1
2.72
 —
1-1-0
2.46
0-0-2
1.84
0-0-1
0.96
1-0-1
1.55
0-1-1
2.70
KA Akureyri
0-2-0
1.96
0-1-0
1.11
0-2-0
3.42
1-0-1
2.68
2-0-0
3.74
0-1-0
1.47
0-1-1
2.95
 —
0-1-0
0.81
0-2-0
1.77
0-0-1
0.84
0-2-0
2.77
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.73
0-0-1
1.70
0-1-0
2.13
1-0-1
3.65
0-1-0
2.34
0-1-1
3.75
2-0-0
3.60
0-1-0
1.92
 —
0-0-1
1.45
1-0-1
2.87
2-0-0
3.33
Stjarnan
0-0-1
1.41
1-1-0
2.77
2-0-0
3.68
1-1-0
3.53
0-1-0
2.14
2-0-0
3.51
1-0-0
1.76
0-2-0
3.67
1-0-0
1.25
 —
0-1-1
2.44
0-1-0
1.61
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.17
1-0-0
1.65
1-0-0
2.08
1-0-0
1.74
2-0-0
4.34
2-0-0
3.43
1-0-1
3.92
1-0-0
1.89
1-0-1
2.54
1-1-0
2.97
 —
2-0-0
3.32
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-0-1
1.19
1-0-1
2.19
0-2-0
3.24
0-0-1
1.51
0-1-0
1.98
1-1-0
2.83
1-1-0
2.71
0-2-0
2.63
0-0-2
2.09
0-1-0
1.10
0-0-2
2.11
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.71 +9.0
Allowed 0.62 -9.3
Differential 0.94 +6.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.67%4.67%4.21%4.21%1.87%0.47%20.09%
14.67%14.95%6.54%3.27%4.67%0.93%35.05%
24.21%6.54%6.54%2.34%1.40%0.47%21.50%
34.21%3.27%2.34%0.93%—0.47%11.21%
41.87%4.67%1.40%—0.93%0.47%9.35%
5+0.47%0.93%0.47%0.47%0.47%—2.80%
Total20.09%35.05%21.50%11.21%9.35%2.80%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.64 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 2.01
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 107

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
111.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%——38.89%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total16.67%38.89%22.22%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.50 +0.56
SD 1.51 1.04 1.72
CV 0.74 0.70 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
111.11%5.56%11.11%—11.11%—38.89%
2—16.67%————16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
411.11%5.56%————16.67%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%16.67%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.28 +0.78
SD 1.26 1.32 2.02
CV 0.61 1.03 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
1—22.22%5.56%22.22%11.11%—61.11%
2——11.11%———11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—33.33%22.22%33.33%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.22 -1.39
SD 0.62 1.06 1.20
CV 0.74 0.48 —
Max 2 4 +0
Min 0 1 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
1—5.56%5.56%—11.11%—22.22%
216.67%22.22%—5.56%——44.44%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%16.67%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.67 -0.17
SD 1.10 1.28 2.01
CV 0.73 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%55.56%
1—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
2——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%22.22%22.22%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.39 -1.56
SD 1.20 1.50 2.01
CV 1.44 0.63 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—11.11%—22.22%
15.56%16.67%——5.56%—27.78%
2——5.56%16.67%——22.22%
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%16.67%16.67%22.22%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.00 -0.39
SD 1.24 1.46 2.03
CV 0.77 0.73 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%—5.56%
1——16.67%—5.56%—22.22%
2——16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
35.56%11.11%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%38.89%5.56%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 2.39 -0.22
SD 1.10 1.65 2.37
CV 0.51 0.69 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%————27.78%
15.56%27.78%—5.56%5.56%—44.44%
25.56%—16.67%———22.22%
3———————
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.17 -0.06
SD 1.02 1.15 1.16
CV 0.92 0.99 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%——5.88%——11.76%
15.88%11.76%17.65%———35.29%
217.65%5.88%5.88%———29.41%
35.88%5.88%————11.76%
4—5.88%———5.88%11.76%
5+———————
Total35.29%29.41%23.53%5.88%—5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.76 1.24 +0.53
SD 1.20 1.35 1.66
CV 0.68 1.09 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.76%—————11.76%
15.88%29.41%5.88%——5.88%47.06%
2—23.53%————23.53%
3——5.88%———5.88%
4—11.76%————11.76%
5+———————
Total17.65%64.71%11.76%——5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.18 +0.41
SD 1.18 1.13 1.54
CV 0.74 0.96 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
111.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%11.11%——5.56%—22.22%
Total44.44%38.89%5.56%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 0.94 +1.83
SD 1.86 1.26 2.12
CV 0.67 1.33 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
1—27.78%5.56%——5.56%38.89%
25.56%—11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%38.89%38.89%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.67 -0.28
SD 1.54 1.24 1.90
CV 1.11 0.74 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 44 34.06 +9.94
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 36 28.47 +7.53
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 28 21.21 +6.79
4 Stjarnan 31 29.37 +1.63
5 Breidablik 31 31.00 +0.00

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fjolnir 6 15.44 -9.44
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 17 23.17 -6.17
3 KR Reykjavik 28 31.96 -3.96
4 Grotta 8 11.60 -3.60
5 HK Kopavogur 20 21.55 -1.55

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 10 Jul 19 – Sep 24 1 in 1,452
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jun 29 – Jul 13 1 in 62
3 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 28 – Jul 19 1 in 32
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 Aug 22 – Sep 21 1 in 30
5 Breidablik 4 Jul 26 – Sep 5 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fjolnir 4 Jun 21 – Jul 8 1 in 61
2 Breidablik 3 Jul 13 – Jul 23 1 in 45
3 IA Akranes 3 Jul 19 – Jul 26 1 in 13
4 KR Reykjavik 2 Aug 14 – Aug 26 1 in 11
5 Grotta 3 Jun 14 – Jun 29 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KA Akureyri 9 Aug 22 – Oct 4 1 in 61
2 Valur Reykjavik 14 Jul 8 – Oct 4 1 in 41
3 Stjarnan 12 Jun 15 – Sep 13 1 in 34
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 4 Jun 29 – Jul 13 1 in 5
5 KR Reykjavik 6 Jun 28 – Jul 26 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fjolnir 18 Jun 15 – Oct 4 1 in 178
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 11 Jul 23 – Oct 4 1 in 127
3 Breidablik 5 Jul 5 – Jul 23 1 in 20
4 KR Reykjavik 4 Jul 22 – Aug 26 1 in 17
5 Grotta 13 Jul 12 – Oct 4 1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Valur Reykjavik33.38%22.86%16.66%11.12%6.79%4.59%2.32%1.36%0.51%0.32%0.09%—
FH Hafnarfjordur7.53%12.08%14.08%16.67%15.31%11.82%8.47%6.16%4.03%2.55%0.98%0.32%
Breidablik15.34%17.93%17.31%15.26%12.05%8.69%6.01%3.72%2.06%1.25%0.29%0.09%
Stjarnan14.13%16.11%17.16%15.94%12.75%9.38%6.52%3.93%2.22%1.18%0.55%0.13%
KR Reykjavik25.90%21.58%18.05%13.24%9.33%5.56%3.28%1.60%0.90%0.40%0.15%0.01%
Fylkir Reykjavik0.58%1.56%2.70%4.55%7.58%10.09%13.27%15.01%15.78%14.27%10.58%4.03%
KA Akureyri0.75%1.80%3.69%6.11%9.18%11.82%14.40%14.71%14.60%12.02%7.64%3.28%
IA Akranes0.52%1.33%2.90%4.41%7.18%10.73%12.44%14.68%15.47%15.63%10.45%4.26%
HK Kopavogur0.57%1.58%2.93%4.80%7.76%10.79%13.76%14.51%15.64%14.13%9.59%3.94%
Vikingur Reykjavik1.29%3.05%4.28%7.27%10.39%13.30%13.98%14.51%12.67%10.93%6.06%2.27%
Grotta—0.02%0.05%0.11%0.29%0.54%1.44%2.53%4.71%9.82%22.65%57.84%
Fjolnir0.01%0.10%0.19%0.52%1.39%2.69%4.11%7.28%11.41%17.50%30.97%23.83%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-0.93%
No Edge
35.51%28.04%36.45%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -3.25 Elo pts.
126 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.05 goals
Neutral
-2-0.03+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.4
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
33%
Valur Reykjavik, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.44/gm
Comfortable
00.190.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.09 * Some Luck: 4.09 to 6.14 * Lucky: 6.14 to 8.19 * Wild Swing: 8.19 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.6 * Close: 1.6 to 2.41 * Off: 2.41 to 3.21 * Way Off: 3.21 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.65 * A Surprise: 0.65 to 1.04 * Several Surprises: 1.04 to 1.42 * Many Surprises: 1.42 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.22 points
Lucky
05.1213
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Pinpoint
02.015
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.82%
Valur Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.08%
Fjolnir
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.62

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.73
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
70%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
92%
Dominant
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Very Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.53
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.64
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Solid Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.28
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.97
Very Underconfident
01.002.26362
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.154
Well Within Noise
00.1630.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik 99.91% 0.09%
KR Reykjavik 99.84% 0.16%
Breidablik 99.62% 0.38%
Stjarnan 99.32% 0.68%
FH Hafnarfjordur 98.70% 1.30%
Vikingur Reykjavik 91.67% 8.33%
KA Akureyri 89.08% 10.92%
HK Kopavogur 86.47% 13.53%
Fylkir Reykjavik 85.39% 14.61%
IA Akranes 85.29% 14.71%
Fjolnir 45.20% 54.80%
Grotta 19.51% 80.49%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2020-06-13 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1234 1291 27.6% 29.4% 43.0% -9.3 0
2020-06-13 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1291 1234 43.0% 29.4% 27.6% +9.3 3
2020-06-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1190 1227 30.1% 29.6% 40.4% -8.8 0
2020-06-14 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1227 1190 40.4% 29.6% 30.1% +8.8 3
2020-06-14 Grotta W 3-0 1269 1109 55.6% 27.0% 17.4% +17.2 3
2020-06-14 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1109 1269 17.4% 27.0% 55.6% -17.2 0
2020-06-14 KA Akureyri W 3-1 1140 1209 26.2% 29.2% 44.6% +21.6 3
2020-06-14 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1209 1140 44.6% 29.2% 26.2% -21.6 0
2020-06-15 Fjolnir D 1-1 1203 1200 35.5% 29.7% 34.8% -0.0 1
2020-06-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1200 1203 34.8% 29.7% 35.5% +0.0 1
2020-06-15 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1237 1158 46.0% 29.0% 25.0% +8.1 3
2020-06-15 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1158 1237 25.0% 29.0% 46.0% -8.1 0
2020-06-20 HK Kopavogur L 0-3 1300 1181 50.8% 28.2% 21.0% -40.2 3
2020-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1181 1300 21.0% 28.2% 50.8% +40.2 3
2020-06-20 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1092 1225 19.7% 27.8% 52.5% -19.2 0
2020-06-20 @ Grotta W 3-0 1225 1092 52.5% 27.8% 19.7% +19.2 3
2020-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1187 1203 32.9% 29.7% 37.4% +0.3 1
2020-06-20 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1203 1187 37.4% 29.7% 32.9% -0.3 2
2020-06-21 Breidablik L 0-1 1150 1287 19.4% 27.7% 52.9% -6.9 0
2020-06-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1287 1150 52.9% 27.7% 19.4% +6.9 6
2020-06-21 IA Akranes W 2-1 1236 1161 45.4% 29.1% 25.5% +8.2 6
2020-06-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1161 1236 25.5% 29.1% 45.4% -8.2 3
2020-06-21 Stjarnan L 1-4 1200 1245 29.0% 29.5% 41.5% -22.2 1
2020-06-21 @ Fjolnir W 4-1 1245 1200 41.5% 29.5% 29.0% +22.2 6
2020-06-28 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1153 1260 22.1% 28.5% 49.4% -7.3 3
2020-06-28 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1260 1153 49.4% 28.5% 22.1% +7.3 6
2020-06-28 Valur Reykjavik L 0-4 1221 1244 32.0% 29.7% 38.4% -36.9 3
2020-06-28 @ HK Kopavogur W 4-0 1244 1221 38.4% 29.7% 32.0% +36.9 6
2020-06-29 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1203 1244 29.5% 29.5% 41.0% +28.5 5
2020-06-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-4 1244 1203 41.0% 29.5% 29.5% -28.5 6
2020-06-29 Fjolnir W 3-1 1294 1178 50.4% 28.3% 21.3% +12.2 9
2020-06-29 @ Breidablik L 1-3 1178 1294 21.3% 28.3% 50.4% -12.2 1
2020-06-29 Grotta W 2-0 1143 1073 44.8% 29.2% 26.0% +16.7 3
2020-06-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1073 1143 26.0% 29.2% 44.8% -16.7 0
2020-07-03 IA Akranes L 1-4 1281 1146 52.8% 27.8% 19.5% -34.9 6
2020-07-03 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-1 1146 1281 19.5% 27.8% 52.8% +34.9 6
2020-07-04 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1166 1160 36.0% 29.7% 34.2% -10.6 1
2020-07-04 @ Fjolnir W 2-1 1160 1166 34.2% 29.7% 36.0% +10.6 6
2020-07-04 HK Kopavogur D 4-4 1056 1184 20.1% 27.9% 52.0% +1.1 1
2020-07-04 @ Grotta D 4-4 1184 1056 52.0% 27.9% 20.1% -1.1 4
2020-07-04 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1267 1231 40.2% 29.6% 30.2% +18.7 9
2020-07-04 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1231 1267 30.2% 29.6% 40.2% -18.7 5
2020-07-05 Breidablik D 2-2 1187 1306 21.0% 28.2% 50.8% +1.4 2
2020-07-05 @ KA Akureyri D 2-2 1306 1187 50.8% 28.2% 21.0% -1.4 10
2020-07-08 FH Hafnarfjordur D 3-3 1304 1215 47.2% 28.8% 24.0% -0.9 11
2020-07-08 @ Breidablik D 3-3 1215 1304 24.0% 28.8% 47.2% +0.9 7
2020-07-08 Grotta L 0-3 1155 1057 48.4% 28.7% 23.0% -38.6 1
2020-07-08 @ Fjolnir W 3-0 1057 1155 23.0% 28.7% 48.4% +38.6 4
2020-07-08 HK Kopavogur D 2-2 1181 1183 34.8% 29.7% 35.5% +0.0 7
2020-07-08 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1183 1181 35.5% 29.7% 34.8% -0.0 5
2020-07-08 Valur Reykjavik L 1-5 1212 1246 30.5% 29.6% 39.9% -29.8 5
2020-07-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-1 1246 1212 39.9% 29.6% 30.5% +29.8 9
2020-07-09 KA Akureyri W 4-1 1170 1189 32.5% 29.7% 37.8% +26.9 9
2020-07-09 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-4 1189 1170 37.8% 29.7% 32.5% -26.9 2
2020-07-12 IA Akranes L 0-4 1096 1181 24.4% 28.9% 46.7% -30.0 4
2020-07-12 @ Grotta W 4-0 1181 1096 46.7% 28.9% 24.4% +30.0 10
2020-07-12 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1183 1183 35.2% 29.7% 35.0% -20.9 5
2020-07-12 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1183 1183 35.0% 29.7% 35.2% +20.8 8
2020-07-13 Breidablik W 3-1 1286 1303 32.6% 29.7% 37.7% +19.0 12
2020-07-13 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1303 1286 37.7% 29.7% 32.6% -19.0 11
2020-07-13 Fjolnir D 1-1 1162 1117 41.5% 29.5% 29.0% -0.7 3
2020-07-13 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1117 1162 29.0% 29.5% 41.5% +0.7 2
2020-07-13 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1216 1197 37.9% 29.7% 32.4% -11.0 7
2020-07-13 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1197 1216 32.4% 29.7% 37.9% +11.0 12
2020-07-13 Stjarnan D 0-0 1276 1268 36.3% 29.7% 34.0% -0.1 10
2020-07-13 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1268 1276 34.0% 29.7% 36.3% +0.1 7
2020-07-17 HK Kopavogur W 4-1 1268 1162 49.2% 28.5% 22.3% +18.0 10
2020-07-17 @ Stjarnan L 1-4 1162 1268 22.3% 28.5% 49.2% -18.0 5
2020-07-18 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1117 1205 24.1% 28.9% 47.1% -22.7 2
2020-07-18 @ Fjolnir W 3-0 1205 1117 47.1% 28.9% 24.1% +22.7 10
2020-07-18 Grotta W 1-0 1161 1066 48.0% 28.7% 23.3% +8.1 6
2020-07-18 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1066 1161 23.3% 28.7% 48.0% -8.1 4
2020-07-19 IA Akranes W 6-2 1204 1211 34.1% 29.7% 36.1% +28.5 11
2020-07-19 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-6 1211 1204 36.1% 29.7% 34.1% -28.5 10
2020-07-19 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1208 1305 23.2% 28.7% 48.1% -22.0 12
2020-07-19 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1305 1208 48.1% 28.7% 23.2% +22.0 15
2020-07-19 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1285 1276 36.4% 29.7% 33.9% -10.7 11
2020-07-19 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1276 1285 33.9% 29.7% 36.4% +10.7 13
2020-07-22 Fjolnir D 2-2 1327 1095 62.8% 24.4% 12.8% -2.5 16
2020-07-22 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1095 1327 12.8% 24.4% 62.8% +2.5 3
2020-07-22 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1228 1169 43.3% 29.3% 27.3% -1.1 11
2020-07-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1169 1228 27.3% 29.3% 43.3% +1.1 7
2020-07-23 Breidablik W 1-0 1144 1274 20.0% 27.9% 52.1% +15.0 8
2020-07-23 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-1 1274 1144 52.1% 27.9% 20.0% -15.0 11
2020-07-23 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1286 1186 48.6% 28.6% 22.8% +21.7 16
2020-07-23 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1186 1286 22.8% 28.6% 48.6% -21.8 12
2020-07-23 Stjarnan L 1-2 1182 1286 22.4% 28.5% 49.0% -7.4 10
2020-07-23 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1286 1182 49.0% 28.5% 22.4% +7.4 13
2020-07-23 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1058 1232 16.4% 26.5% 57.1% +2.7 5
2020-07-23 @ Grotta D 1-1 1232 1058 57.1% 26.5% 16.4% -2.6 12
2020-07-26 IA Akranes W 5-3 1259 1175 46.6% 28.9% 24.5% +11.6 14
2020-07-26 @ Breidablik L 3-5 1175 1259 24.5% 28.9% 46.6% -11.6 10
2020-07-26 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1170 1324 17.9% 27.2% 54.9% +2.7 8
2020-07-26 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1324 1170 54.9% 27.2% 17.9% -2.7 17
2020-07-27 Grotta W 2-1 1227 1060 56.3% 26.8% 17.0% +5.8 14
2020-07-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1060 1227 17.0% 26.8% 56.3% -5.8 5
2020-07-27 HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1164 1159 35.8% 29.7% 34.4% +9.7 15
2020-07-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-3 1159 1164 34.4% 29.7% 35.8% -9.7 8
2020-07-27 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1097 1308 14.0% 25.2% 60.8% -8.3 3
2020-07-27 @ Fjolnir W 3-1 1308 1097 60.8% 25.2% 14.0% +8.3 19
2020-07-27 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1293 1229 44.0% 29.3% 26.8% -1.0 14
2020-07-27 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1229 1293 26.8% 29.3% 44.0% +1.0 13
2020-08-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1321 1233 47.2% 28.9% 24.0% -13.0 17
2020-08-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1233 1321 24.0% 28.9% 47.2% +13.0 17
2020-08-14 Grotta D 1-1 1292 1054 63.4% 24.1% 12.5% -3.4 15
2020-08-14 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1054 1292 12.5% 24.1% 63.4% +3.4 6
2020-08-15 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-2 1163 1174 33.6% 29.7% 36.7% +10.2 13
2020-08-15 @ IA Akranes L 2-3 1174 1163 36.7% 29.7% 33.6% -10.2 15
2020-08-15 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1316 1173 53.7% 27.5% 18.8% +6.7 22
2020-08-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1173 1316 18.8% 27.5% 53.7% -6.7 8
2020-08-16 Breidablik L 2-4 1230 1270 29.7% 29.5% 40.8% -14.3 13
2020-08-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-2 1270 1230 40.8% 29.5% 29.7% +14.3 17
2020-08-16 Fjolnir W 3-1 1150 1089 43.6% 29.3% 27.1% +14.9 11
2020-08-16 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-3 1089 1150 27.1% 29.3% 43.6% -14.9 3
2020-08-17 Stjarnan L 1-2 1246 1289 29.3% 29.5% 41.2% -9.1 17
2020-08-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1289 1246 41.2% 29.5% 29.3% +9.1 18
2020-08-20 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1074 1216 18.9% 27.6% 53.5% +2.2 4
2020-08-20 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1216 1074 53.5% 27.6% 18.9% -2.2 14
2020-08-21 Breidablik L 0-1 1058 1285 13.1% 24.6% 62.4% -4.7 6
2020-08-21 @ Grotta W 1-0 1285 1058 62.4% 24.6% 13.1% +4.7 20
2020-08-21 Stjarnan D 1-1 1164 1298 19.6% 27.8% 52.6% +2.1 16
2020-08-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1298 1164 52.6% 27.8% 19.6% -2.1 19
2020-08-22 HK Kopavogur W 4-0 1237 1165 45.1% 29.1% 25.8% +31.4 20
2020-08-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1165 1237 25.8% 29.1% 45.1% -31.4 11
2020-08-22 IA Akranes D 2-2 1166 1173 34.1% 29.7% 36.2% +0.1 9
2020-08-22 @ KA Akureyri D 2-2 1173 1166 36.2% 29.7% 34.1% -0.1 14
2020-08-25 Fjolnir W 2-0 1166 1076 47.3% 28.8% 23.9% +15.6 19
2020-08-25 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1076 1166 23.9% 28.8% 47.3% -15.6 4
2020-08-26 Grotta W 3-0 1133 1053 46.1% 29.0% 24.9% +23.4 14
2020-08-26 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-3 1053 1133 24.9% 29.0% 46.1% -23.4 6
2020-08-26 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1296 1166 52.1% 27.9% 20.0% -2.0 20
2020-08-26 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1166 1296 20.0% 27.9% 52.1% +2.0 10
2020-08-26 Valur Reykjavik L 4-5 1308 1323 33.1% 29.7% 37.2% -9.1 17
2020-08-26 @ KR Reykjavik W 5-4 1323 1308 37.2% 29.7% 33.1% +9.1 25
2020-08-30 Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-2 1030 1181 18.1% 27.3% 54.6% -12.3 6
2020-08-30 @ Grotta W 2-0 1181 1030 54.6% 27.3% 18.1% +12.3 22
2020-08-30 HK Kopavogur W 1-0 1332 1157 57.2% 26.5% 16.3% +5.9 28
2020-08-30 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1157 1332 16.3% 26.5% 57.2% -5.9 14
2020-08-30 IA Akranes W 4-1 1299 1173 51.7% 28.0% 20.3% +16.6 20
2020-08-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1173 1299 20.3% 28.0% 51.7% -16.6 14
2020-08-30 Stjarnan D 0-0 1168 1294 20.4% 28.0% 51.6% +2.2 11
2020-08-30 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1294 1168 51.6% 28.0% 20.4% -2.2 21
2020-09-05 Breidablik L 1-4 1061 1289 13.0% 24.5% 62.5% -10.8 4
2020-09-05 @ Fjolnir W 4-1 1289 1061 62.5% 24.5% 13.0% +10.8 23
2020-09-13 Breidablik W 3-1 1268 1300 30.7% 29.6% 39.7% +19.7 23
2020-09-13 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1300 1268 39.7% 29.6% 30.7% -19.7 23
2020-09-13 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1170 1194 31.9% 29.7% 38.4% +22.2 14
2020-09-13 @ KA Akureyri L 0-2 1194 1170 38.4% 29.7% 31.9% -22.2 22
2020-09-13 IA Akranes W 3-2 1151 1157 34.3% 29.7% 36.0% +10.0 17
2020-09-13 @ HK Kopavogur L 2-3 1157 1151 36.0% 29.7% 34.3% -10.0 14
2020-09-13 Stjarnan L 1-2 1316 1292 38.6% 29.7% 31.7% -11.1 20
2020-09-13 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1292 1316 31.7% 29.7% 38.6% +11.1 24
2020-09-13 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1338 1214 51.4% 28.1% 20.5% +13.7 31
2020-09-13 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1214 1338 20.5% 28.1% 51.4% -13.7 14
2020-09-14 Fjolnir D 2-2 1017 1050 30.7% 29.6% 39.7% +0.4 7
2020-09-14 @ Grotta D 2-2 1050 1017 39.7% 29.6% 30.7% -0.4 5
2020-09-17 Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 1147 1352 14.3% 25.4% 60.2% -7.6 14
2020-09-17 @ IA Akranes W 4-2 1352 1147 60.2% 25.4% 14.3% +7.6 34
2020-09-17 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1288 1200 47.0% 28.9% 24.1% +8.3 26
2020-09-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1200 1288 24.1% 28.9% 47.0% -8.3 14
2020-09-19 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1049 1193 18.8% 27.5% 53.7% +2.2 6
2020-09-19 @ Fjolnir D 1-1 1193 1049 53.7% 27.5% 18.8% -2.2 15
2020-09-21 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1171 1296 20.4% 28.0% 51.5% -16.7 22
2020-09-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-1 1296 1171 51.5% 28.0% 20.4% +16.7 29
2020-09-21 Grotta W 3-0 1139 1018 51.1% 28.1% 20.8% +20.1 17
2020-09-21 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1018 1139 20.8% 28.1% 51.1% -20.1 7
2020-09-21 HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1192 1161 39.6% 29.6% 30.8% -0.5 15
2020-09-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1161 1192 30.8% 29.6% 39.6% +0.5 18
2020-09-21 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1281 1305 31.8% 29.7% 38.6% -19.4 23
2020-09-21 @ Breidablik W 2-0 1305 1281 38.6% 29.7% 31.8% +19.4 23
2020-09-21 Valur Reykjavik L 1-5 1303 1359 27.6% 29.4% 43.0% -27.6 24
2020-09-21 @ Stjarnan W 5-1 1359 1303 43.0% 29.4% 27.6% +27.6 37
2020-09-24 Grotta D 1-1 1324 998 71.1% 20.3% 8.6% -4.2 24
2020-09-24 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 998 1324 8.6% 20.3% 71.1% +4.2 8
2020-09-24 HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1190 1161 39.3% 29.6% 31.1% -0.5 16
2020-09-24 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1161 1190 31.1% 29.6% 39.3% +0.5 19
2020-09-24 IA Akranes L 1-3 1052 1159 22.1% 28.5% 49.5% -12.6 6
2020-09-24 @ Fjolnir W 3-1 1159 1052 49.5% 28.5% 22.1% +12.6 20
2020-09-24 Stjarnan W 2-1 1261 1275 33.2% 29.7% 37.1% +10.8 26
2020-09-24 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1275 1261 37.1% 29.7% 33.2% -10.8 24
2020-09-24 Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1313 1387 25.6% 29.1% 45.3% -20.1 29
2020-09-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1387 1313 45.3% 29.1% 25.6% +20.2 40
2020-09-24 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1155 1191 30.1% 29.6% 40.3% +11.5 25
2020-09-24 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1191 1155 40.3% 29.6% 30.1% -11.5 15
2020-09-27 Breidablik D 1-1 1407 1272 52.7% 27.8% 19.5% -2.1 41
2020-09-27 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1272 1407 19.5% 27.8% 52.7% +2.1 27
2020-09-27 Fjolnir W 1-0 1293 1039 64.8% 23.5% 11.7% +4.2 32
2020-09-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1039 1293 11.7% 23.5% 64.8% -4.2 6
2020-09-27 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1320 1166 54.8% 27.2% 18.0% -14.7 24
2020-09-27 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1166 1320 18.0% 27.2% 54.8% +14.7 28
2020-09-27 KA Akureyri L 2-4 1002 1190 15.4% 26.1% 58.5% -8.2 8
2020-09-27 @ Grotta W 4-2 1190 1002 58.5% 26.1% 15.4% +8.2 19
2020-09-27 Stjarnan L 2-3 1162 1264 22.5% 28.6% 48.9% -7.0 19
2020-09-27 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1264 1162 48.9% 28.6% 22.5% +7.0 27
2020-09-27 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1172 1180 34.0% 29.7% 36.3% +0.1 21
2020-09-27 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1180 1172 36.3% 29.7% 34.0% -0.1 16
2020-10-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1271 1297 31.6% 29.6% 38.8% +0.4 28
2020-10-01 @ Stjarnan D 1-1 1297 1271 38.8% 29.6% 31.6% -0.4 33
2020-10-01 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1274 1198 45.6% 29.1% 25.4% -1.2 28
2020-10-01 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1198 1274 25.4% 29.1% 45.6% +1.2 20
2020-10-01 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1180 1305 20.4% 28.0% 51.6% -13.6 16
2020-10-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1305 1180 51.6% 28.0% 20.4% +13.6 27
2020-10-04 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1172 1296 20.4% 28.0% 51.5% -25.9 21
2020-10-04 @ IA Akranes W 4-0 1296 1172 51.5% 28.0% 20.4% +25.9 36
2020-10-04 Fjolnir W 1-0 1272 1035 63.3% 24.2% 12.5% +4.5 31
2020-10-04 @ Stjarnan L 0-1 1035 1272 12.5% 24.2% 63.3% -4.5 6
2020-10-04 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-1 1273 1181 47.6% 28.8% 23.6% +18.9 31
2020-10-04 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1181 1273 23.6% 28.8% 47.6% -18.9 28
2020-10-04 Grotta W 6-0 1405 994 77.4% 16.6% 6.0% +9.9 44
2020-10-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-6 994 1405 6.0% 16.6% 77.4% -9.9 8
2020-10-04 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1166 1199 30.6% 29.6% 39.8% +0.4 17
2020-10-04 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1199 1166 39.8% 29.6% 30.6% -0.4 21
2020-10-04 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1155 1319 17.2% 26.9% 56.0% +2.5 20
2020-10-04 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1319 1155 56.0% 26.9% 17.2% -2.5 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-09-27 17.96% Fylkir Reykjavik 1166 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1320 1
2 2020-07-03 19.50% IA Akranes 1146 4 @ Valur Reykjavik 1281 1
3 2020-07-23 20.01% @ HK Kopavogur 1144 1 Breidablik 1274 0
4 2020-06-20 20.99% HK Kopavogur 1181 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1300 0
5 2020-07-08 22.99% Grotta 1057 3 @ Fjolnir 1155 0
6 2020-08-14 23.98% FH Hafnarfjordur 1233 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1321 1
7 2020-06-14 26.17% @ IA Akranes 1140 3 KA Akureyri 1209 1
8 2020-06-29 29.51% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1203 4 FH Hafnarfjordur 1244 1
9 2020-09-24 30.12% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1155 2 Vikingur Reykjavik 1191 1
10 2020-09-13 30.71% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1268 3 Breidablik 1300 1
11 2020-09-13 31.74% Stjarnan 1292 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1316 1
12 2020-09-13 31.90% @ KA Akureyri 1170 2 Fylkir Reykjavik 1194 0
13 2020-07-13 32.42% Fylkir Reykjavik 1197 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1216 1
14 2020-07-09 32.53% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1170 4 KA Akureyri 1189 1
15 2020-07-13 32.63% @ KR Reykjavik 1286 3 Breidablik 1303 1
16 2020-09-24 33.17% @ Breidablik 1261 2 Stjarnan 1275 1
17 2020-08-15 33.60% @ IA Akranes 1163 3 Fylkir Reykjavik 1174 2
18 2020-07-19 33.86% Valur Reykjavik 1276 2 @ Breidablik 1285 1
19 2020-07-19 34.12% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1204 6 IA Akranes 1211 2
20 2020-07-04 34.24% Fylkir Reykjavik 1160 2 @ Fjolnir 1166 1
21 2020-09-13 34.29% @ HK Kopavogur 1151 3 IA Akranes 1157 2
22 2020-07-12 35.05% Vikingur Reykjavik 1183 2 @ HK Kopavogur 1183 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-06-20 40.18 HK Kopavogur 3 1181 20.99% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1300 50.82% 28.19%
2 2020-07-08 38.56 Grotta 3 1057 22.99% @ Fjolnir 0 1155 48.35% 28.66%
3 2020-06-28 36.94 Valur Reykjavik 4 1244 38.35% @ HK Kopavogur 0 1221 31.98% 29.67%
4 2020-07-03 34.95 IA Akranes 4 1146 19.50% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1281 52.75% 27.75%
5 2020-08-22 31.42 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1237 45.05% HK Kopavogur 0 1165 25.80% 29.15%
6 2020-07-12 30.03 IA Akranes 4 1181 46.70% @ Grotta 0 1096 24.37% 28.93%
7 2020-07-08 29.76 Valur Reykjavik 5 1246 39.86% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1212 30.53% 29.60%
8 2020-06-29 28.53 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1203 29.51% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1244 40.96% 29.53%
9 2020-07-19 28.51 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 6 1204 34.12% IA Akranes 2 1211 36.15% 29.72%
10 2020-09-21 27.61 Valur Reykjavik 5 1359 42.99% @ Stjarnan 1 1303 27.64% 29.37%
11 2020-07-09 26.86 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 4 1170 32.53% KA Akureyri 1 1189 37.78% 29.69%
12 2020-10-04 25.91 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1296 51.53% @ IA Akranes 0 1172 20.44% 28.04%
13 2020-08-26 23.39 @ HK Kopavogur 3 1133 46.07% Grotta 0 1053 24.91% 29.01%
14 2020-07-18 22.74 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1205 47.08% @ Fjolnir 0 1117 24.05% 28.87%
15 2020-09-13 22.21 @ KA Akureyri 2 1170 31.90% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1194 38.43% 29.67%
16 2020-06-21 22.20 Stjarnan 4 1245 41.48% @ Fjolnir 1 1200 29.03% 29.50%
17 2020-07-19 22.04 KR Reykjavik 3 1305 48.15% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1208 23.15% 28.70%
18 2020-07-23 21.75 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1286 48.60% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1186 22.78% 28.62%
19 2020-06-14 21.56 @ IA Akranes 3 1140 26.17% KA Akureyri 1 1209 44.64% 29.20%
20 2020-07-12 20.86 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1183 35.05% @ HK Kopavogur 0 1183 35.22% 29.73%
21 2020-09-24 20.15 Valur Reykjavik 4 1387 45.29% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1313 25.59% 29.12%
22 2020-09-21 20.10 @ IA Akranes 3 1139 51.12% Grotta 0 1018 20.75% 28.13%
23 2020-09-13 19.70 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1268 30.71% Breidablik 1 1300 39.68% 29.61%
24 2020-09-21 19.36 KR Reykjavik 2 1305 38.59% @ Breidablik 0 1281 31.75% 29.66%
25 2020-06-20 19.20 Valur Reykjavik 3 1225 52.48% @ Grotta 0 1092 19.70% 27.82%