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2021 Úrvalsdeild Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Vikingur Reykjavik

48 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1991.0

Relegated

Fylkir Reykjavik

16 pts

HK Kopavogur · 20 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Vikingur Reykjavik

13.71 points above expected

48 points · 34.29 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fylkir Reykjavik

7.46 points below expected

16 points · 23.46 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik Champion 22 14 6 2 48 38 21 +17 34.29 +13.71
2 Breidablik 22 15 2 5 47 55 21 +34 38.96 +8.04
3 KR Reykjavik 22 12 5 5 41 35 19 +16 38.34 +2.66
4 KA Akureyri 22 12 4 6 40 36 20 +16 35.10 +4.90
5 Valur Reykjavik 22 12 3 7 39 37 26 +11 40.93 -1.93
6 FH Hafnarfjordur 22 9 6 7 33 39 26 +13 33.74 -0.74
7 Stjarnan 22 6 4 12 22 24 36 -12 27.14 -5.14
8 Leiknir Reykjavik 22 6 4 12 22 18 32 -14 27.43 -5.43
9 Keflavik IF 22 6 3 13 21 23 38 -15 24.59 -3.59
10 IA Akranes 22 6 3 13 21 29 44 -15 22.48 -1.48
11 HK Kopavogur Relegated 22 5 5 12 20 21 39 -18 22.74 -2.74
12 Fylkir Reykjavik Relegated 22 3 7 12 16 18 51 -33 23.46 -7.46

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Breidablik 1400 47 38.96 +8.04 92.0% 17 29 35 39 43 49 59
KR Reykjavik 1312 41 38.34 +2.66 70.1% 17 28 34 38 42 48 59
FH Hafnarfjordur 1309 33 33.74 -0.74 48.3% 9 24 30 34 38 44 59
Vikingur Reykjavik 1304 48 34.29 +13.71 99.2% 12 24 30 34 38 44 58
KA Akureyri 1273 40 35.10 +4.90 81.2% 10 25 31 35 39 45 58
Valur Reykjavik 1249 39 40.93 -1.93 40.3% 17 31 37 41 45 50 62
IA Akranes 1080 21 22.48 -1.48 44.7% 3 13 19 22 26 32 48
Stjarnan 1071 22 27.14 -5.14 22.4% 8 18 23 27 31 37 51
Keflavik IF 1043 21 24.59 -3.59 30.9% 7 15 20 25 29 34 48
HK Kopavogur 1038 20 22.74 -2.74 35.7% 4 14 19 23 27 32 45
Leiknir Reykjavik 1037 22 27.43 -5.43 21.1% 6 18 23 27 32 37 51
Fylkir Reykjavik 906 16 23.46 -7.46 11.0% 6 14 19 23 27 33 49

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR HK IA KA KR KI LR STJ VR VR
Breidablik —
1-0-1
3.37
2-0-0
4.32
2-0-0
4.43
2-0-0
3.96
2-0-0
3.46
0-1-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.61
1-1-0
3.34
2-0-0
3.57
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
3.01
FH Hafnarfjordur
1-0-1
2.22
 —
2-0-0
3.26
1-0-1
3.84
2-0-0
3.65
0-2-0
2.58
0-1-1
2.67
1-1-0
3.80
1-0-1
3.22
1-1-0
3.52
0-1-1
2.16
0-0-2
2.85
Fylkir Reykjavik
0-0-2
1.29
0-0-2
2.33
 —
0-1-1
2.91
1-0-1
2.72
1-0-1
1.59
0-1-1
1.84
1-1-0
2.57
0-1-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.59
0-1-1
1.20
0-1-1
1.85
HK Kopavogur
0-0-2
1.20
1-0-1
1.76
1-1-0
2.68
 —
0-0-2
3.22
0-1-1
2.26
0-1-1
1.41
1-0-1
2.79
1-1-0
2.20
1-0-1
2.32
0-0-2
1.45
0-1-1
1.50
IA Akranes
0-0-2
1.65
0-0-2
1.94
1-0-1
2.87
2-0-0
2.37
 —
0-0-2
1.61
0-0-2
1.43
1-1-0
2.64
1-0-1
2.19
0-1-1
2.28
1-0-1
1.35
0-1-1
2.11
KA Akureyri
0-0-2
2.13
0-2-0
3.01
1-0-1
4.02
1-1-0
3.33
2-0-0
4.00
 —
1-0-1
2.46
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
3.27
2-0-0
3.74
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
3.11
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.75
1-1-0
2.93
1-1-0
3.76
1-1-0
4.20
2-0-0
4.17
1-0-1
3.13
 —
2-0-0
4.18
2-0-0
3.81
1-0-1
4.07
0-0-2
2.39
0-1-1
3.01
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
1.98
0-1-1
1.80
0-1-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.94
0-0-2
2.01
0-0-2
1.42
 —
2-0-0
2.55
2-0-0
2.37
0-0-2
1.37
0-0-2
2.30
Leiknir Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.26
1-0-1
2.36
1-1-0
3.06
0-1-1
3.38
1-0-1
3.40
0-0-2
2.32
0-0-2
1.79
0-0-2
3.03
 —
1-1-0
2.60
1-0-1
1.57
1-0-1
1.55
Stjarnan
0-0-2
2.02
0-1-1
2.07
1-1-0
3.00
1-0-1
3.27
1-1-0
3.31
0-0-2
1.86
1-0-1
1.53
0-0-2
3.21
0-1-1
2.98
 —
2-0-0
1.46
0-0-2
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.59
1-1-0
3.43
1-1-0
4.42
2-0-0
4.16
1-0-1
4.25
1-0-1
3.06
2-0-0
3.19
2-0-0
4.24
1-0-1
4.03
0-0-2
4.15
 —
0-1-1
3.44
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.57
2-0-0
2.73
1-1-0
3.75
1-1-0
4.10
1-1-0
3.49
1-1-0
2.47
1-1-0
2.57
2-0-0
3.28
1-0-1
4.06
2-0-0
3.21
1-1-0
2.15
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +9.4
Allowed 0.84 -10.1
Differential 0.92 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.30%6.44%8.71%3.79%3.03%1.89%29.17%
16.44%9.85%7.95%3.03%1.14%0.38%28.79%
28.71%7.95%3.79%3.03%0.76%—24.24%
33.79%3.03%3.03%0.76%——10.61%
43.03%1.14%0.76%———4.92%
5+1.89%0.38%————2.27%
Total29.17%28.79%24.24%10.61%4.92%2.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.41 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.31 2.13
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%4.55%——18.18%
1—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
213.64%4.55%————18.18%
39.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%——27.27%
422.73%—————22.73%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total50.00%18.18%18.18%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 0.95 +1.55
SD 1.74 1.13 2.54
CV 0.70 1.19 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—13.64%—4.55%—22.73%
19.09%18.18%9.09%———36.36%
24.55%—4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+9.09%4.55%————13.64%
Total36.36%27.27%27.27%—9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.18 +0.59
SD 1.69 1.22 2.46
CV 0.95 1.03 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%18.18%9.09%4.55%13.64%54.55%
1—18.18%4.55%———22.73%
2—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total4.55%31.82%36.36%9.09%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 2.32 -1.50
SD 1.14 1.76 2.41
CV 1.39 0.76 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%9.09%13.64%——40.91%
19.09%4.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%—31.82%
2—9.09%4.55%9.09%——22.73%
3———————
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%18.18%22.73%31.82%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.77 -0.82
SD 1.05 1.27 1.53
CV 1.10 0.72 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%18.18%9.09%4.55%—40.91%
1—4.55%4.55%9.09%—4.55%22.73%
2—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
3—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total9.09%27.27%31.82%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 2.00 -0.68
SD 1.49 1.23 2.30
CV 1.13 0.62 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%———22.73%
19.09%4.55%9.09%———22.73%
213.64%9.09%9.09%———31.82%
39.09%4.55%————13.64%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+———————
Total36.36%36.36%27.27%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.91 +0.73
SD 1.26 0.81 1.64
CV 0.77 0.89 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%————4.55%
19.09%22.73%9.09%4.55%——45.45%
227.27%9.09%—4.55%——40.91%
3—4.55%————4.55%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total40.91%40.91%9.09%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 0.86 +0.73
SD 0.85 0.94 1.45
CV 0.54 1.09 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%—4.55%4.55%31.82%
19.09%4.55%18.18%—4.55%—36.36%
213.64%—4.55%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%18.18%31.82%4.55%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.73 -0.68
SD 0.90 1.52 1.84
CV 0.86 0.88 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%54.55%
14.55%—9.09%4.55%——18.18%
29.09%9.09%————18.18%
34.55%——4.55%——9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%27.27%18.18%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 1.45 -0.64
SD 1.05 1.44 1.94
CV 1.29 0.99 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%13.64%—9.09%—40.91%
1—9.09%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
24.55%18.18%—13.64%——36.36%
3———————
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%36.36%18.18%18.18%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.64 -0.55
SD 1.11 1.26 1.84
CV 1.02 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
113.64%13.64%18.18%—4.55%—50.00%
29.09%9.09%————18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%31.82%27.27%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.18 +0.50
SD 1.32 1.10 1.97
CV 0.79 0.93 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%———4.55%—9.09%
113.64%13.64%4.55%———31.82%
29.09%18.18%9.09%———36.36%
313.64%—9.09%———22.73%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.91%31.82%22.73%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 0.95 +0.77
SD 0.94 1.05 1.51
CV 0.54 1.10 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 48 34.29 +13.71
2 Breidablik 47 38.96 +8.04
3 KA Akureyri 40 35.10 +4.90
4 KR Reykjavik 41 38.34 +2.66
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 33 33.74 -0.74

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fylkir Reykjavik 16 23.46 -7.46
2 Leiknir Reykjavik 22 27.43 -5.43
3 Stjarnan 22 27.14 -5.14
4 Keflavik IF 21 24.59 -3.59
5 HK Kopavogur 20 22.74 -2.74

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 6 Aug 16 – Sep 25 1 in 131
2 Breidablik 7 Aug 2 – Sep 11 1 in 48
3 KA Akureyri 3 May 7 – May 17 1 in 19
4 IA Akranes 3 Sep 11 – Sep 25 1 in 18
5 Stjarnan 2 Jun 20 – Jun 28 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 4 Aug 22 – Sep 19 1 in 109
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 May 22 – Jun 12 1 in 28
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 6 Aug 16 – Sep 25 1 in 22
4 Leiknir Reykjavik 4 Aug 29 – Sep 25 1 in 21
5 Keflavik IF 4 May 13 – May 24 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 9 May 2 – Jun 21 1 in 112
2 Stjarnan 5 May 30 – Jun 28 1 in 41
3 Keflavik IF 4 Jun 16 – Jul 3 1 in 9
4 KR Reykjavik 5 May 22 – Jun 21 1 in 9
5 Valur Reykjavik 7 Apr 30 – Jun 7 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 7 May 22 – Jul 1 1 in 39
2 Stjarnan 7 May 1 – May 30 1 in 33
3 Leiknir Reykjavik 6 Aug 15 – Sep 25 1 in 15
4 Fylkir Reykjavik 10 Jul 18 – Sep 25 1 in 14
5 HK Kopavogur 6 May 1 – May 25 1 in 14

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Vikingur Reykjavik7.19%10.75%13.13%15.55%14.78%13.37%10.09%6.27%4.39%2.64%1.40%0.44%
Breidablik24.64%21.23%17.37%13.33%9.69%5.85%3.87%1.93%1.15%0.64%0.16%0.14%
KR Reykjavik19.02%19.95%18.03%15.26%10.88%7.51%4.56%2.39%1.38%0.67%0.27%0.08%
KA Akureyri8.91%12.42%14.86%14.42%14.93%13.01%8.88%5.83%3.48%1.97%0.93%0.36%
Valur Reykjavik32.74%22.87%15.75%11.53%7.64%4.63%2.50%1.39%0.55%0.28%0.08%0.04%
FH Hafnarfjordur5.84%8.68%12.33%14.28%15.98%14.42%10.86%7.13%4.97%3.03%1.62%0.86%
Stjarnan0.53%1.29%2.74%4.54%7.09%10.63%13.81%15.83%14.06%12.24%10.34%6.90%
Leiknir Reykjavik0.68%1.45%2.80%4.90%8.00%11.18%13.72%14.46%14.11%12.04%9.88%6.78%
Keflavik IF0.15%0.55%1.08%2.64%3.86%6.31%10.43%13.18%15.30%15.67%15.90%14.93%
IA Akranes0.14%0.28%0.65%1.18%2.11%4.01%6.87%9.83%13.05%17.11%20.38%24.39%
HK Kopavogur0.04%0.20%0.59%0.96%2.19%4.41%6.90%10.67%13.74%16.53%20.04%23.73%
Fylkir Reykjavik0.12%0.33%0.67%1.41%2.85%4.67%7.51%11.09%13.82%17.18%19.00%21.35%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.15%
Clear Edge
47.73%19.70%32.58%
Elo Value
Home Edge
137 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
053.05400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.34 goals
Neutral
-2+0.39+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.5
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
7%
Vikingur Reykjavik, 5th of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.74 * Some Luck: 4.74 to 7.12 * Lucky: 7.12 to 9.49 * Wild Swing: 9.49 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.52 * Close: 1.52 to 2.27 * Off: 2.27 to 3.03 * Way Off: 3.03 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.11 * A Surprise: 1.11 to 1.78 * Several Surprises: 1.78 to 2.45 * Many Surprises: 2.45 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.93 points
Some Luck
05.9315
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
01.894
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.19%
Vikingur Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
10.97%
Fylkir Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.66
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
82%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
95%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.98
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.59
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Chalky
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.84
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.08
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.040
Well Within Noise
00.1440.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik 99.88% 0.12%
Breidablik 99.70% 0.30%
KR Reykjavik 99.65% 0.35%
KA Akureyri 98.71% 1.29%
Vikingur Reykjavik 98.16% 1.84%
FH Hafnarfjordur 97.52% 2.48%
Leiknir Reykjavik 83.34% 16.66%
Stjarnan 82.76% 17.24%
Keflavik IF 69.17% 30.83%
Fylkir Reykjavik 59.65% 40.35%
HK Kopavogur 56.23% 43.77%
IA Akranes 55.23% 44.77%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2021-04-30 IA Akranes W 2-0 1256 1126 61.9% 19.9% 18.2% +14.1 3
2021-04-30 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1126 1256 18.2% 19.9% 61.9% -14.1 0
2021-05-01 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1133 1209 36.2% 20.9% 42.9% -25.4 0
2021-05-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1209 1133 42.9% 20.9% 36.2% +25.4 3
2021-05-01 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1131 1151 44.1% 20.9% 35.0% -0.8 1
2021-05-01 @ HK Kopavogur D 0-0 1151 1131 35.0% 20.9% 44.1% +0.8 1
2021-05-01 Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1187 1147 52.0% 20.6% 27.3% -2.2 1
2021-05-01 @ Stjarnan D 0-0 1147 1187 27.3% 20.6% 52.0% +2.2 1
2021-05-02 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1135 1138 46.5% 20.8% 32.7% +12.4 3
2021-05-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1138 1135 32.7% 20.8% 46.5% -12.4 0
2021-05-02 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1197 1212 44.9% 20.8% 34.3% -30.2 0
2021-05-02 @ Breidablik W 2-0 1212 1197 34.3% 20.8% 44.9% +30.2 3
2021-05-07 KA Akureyri L 1-3 1242 1152 57.8% 20.3% 21.9% -32.8 3
2021-05-07 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1152 1242 21.9% 20.3% 57.8% +32.8 4
2021-05-08 Breidablik D 3-3 1149 1167 44.6% 20.8% 34.5% -0.5 2
2021-05-08 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 3-3 1167 1149 34.5% 20.8% 44.6% +0.5 1
2021-05-08 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1130 1107 49.9% 20.7% 29.4% -1.2 2
2021-05-08 @ HK Kopavogur D 2-2 1107 1130 29.4% 20.7% 49.9% +1.2 1
2021-05-08 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1112 1147 42.1% 20.9% 37.0% -0.4 1
2021-05-08 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1147 1112 37.0% 20.9% 42.1% +0.4 4
2021-05-09 Stjarnan W 2-0 1126 1185 38.7% 20.9% 40.4% +27.7 3
2021-05-09 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1185 1126 40.4% 20.9% 38.7% -27.7 1
2021-05-09 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1235 1270 42.1% 20.9% 37.0% -0.4 4
2021-05-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1270 1235 37.0% 20.9% 42.1% +0.4 4
2021-05-12 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1108 1209 32.9% 20.8% 46.2% +1.0 2
2021-05-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1209 1108 46.2% 20.8% 32.9% -1.0 4
2021-05-12 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-0 1185 1149 51.6% 20.6% 27.8% +29.6 7
2021-05-12 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1149 1185 27.8% 20.6% 51.6% -29.6 2
2021-05-13 HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1270 1129 62.9% 19.8% 17.3% +6.3 7
2021-05-13 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1129 1270 17.3% 19.8% 62.9% -6.4 2
2021-05-13 IA Akranes W 5-1 1234 1111 61.2% 20.0% 18.9% +23.0 7
2021-05-13 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-5 1111 1234 18.9% 20.0% 61.2% -22.9 1
2021-05-13 Keflavik IF W 4-0 1167 1153 48.7% 20.8% 30.5% +41.9 4
2021-05-13 @ Breidablik L 0-4 1153 1167 30.5% 20.8% 48.7% -41.9 3
2021-05-13 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-3 1157 1148 48.2% 20.8% 31.0% -15.2 1
2021-05-13 @ Stjarnan W 3-2 1148 1157 31.0% 20.8% 48.2% +15.2 7
2021-05-16 Breidablik W 3-0 1163 1209 40.5% 20.9% 38.6% +38.7 10
2021-05-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 1209 1163 38.6% 20.9% 40.5% -38.7 4
2021-05-16 Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1119 1109 48.2% 20.8% 31.0% +32.4 5
2021-05-16 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-3 1109 1119 31.0% 20.8% 48.2% -32.4 2
2021-05-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1122 1257 28.7% 20.7% 50.6% -18.1 2
2021-05-17 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-1 1257 1122 50.6% 20.7% 28.7% +18.1 10
2021-05-17 KA Akureyri L 1-4 1112 1215 32.7% 20.8% 46.5% -28.6 3
2021-05-17 @ Keflavik IF W 4-1 1215 1112 46.5% 20.8% 32.7% +28.6 10
2021-05-17 Stjarnan D 0-0 1089 1142 39.5% 20.9% 39.6% +0.0 2
2021-05-17 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1142 1089 39.6% 20.9% 39.5% -0.0 2
2021-05-17 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1208 1277 37.4% 20.9% 41.7% -12.3 4
2021-05-17 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 1277 1208 41.7% 20.9% 37.4% +12.4 10
2021-05-21 IA Akranes L 1-3 1104 1089 49.0% 20.8% 30.3% -28.2 2
2021-05-21 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-1 1089 1104 30.3% 20.8% 49.0% +28.2 5
2021-05-21 Keflavik IF W 4-2 1077 1083 46.1% 20.8% 33.1% +18.2 5
2021-05-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 2-4 1083 1077 33.1% 20.8% 46.1% -18.2 3
2021-05-21 Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1289 1152 62.5% 19.8% 17.6% +7.2 13
2021-05-21 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1152 1289 17.6% 19.8% 62.5% -7.2 5
2021-05-21 Stjarnan W 4-0 1170 1142 50.6% 20.7% 28.7% +39.8 7
2021-05-21 @ Breidablik L 0-4 1142 1170 28.7% 20.7% 50.6% -39.8 2
2021-05-21 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1243 1201 52.3% 20.6% 27.1% -18.3 10
2021-05-21 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1201 1243 27.1% 20.6% 52.3% +18.3 13
2021-05-22 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1275 1196 56.6% 20.4% 23.0% -37.1 10
2021-05-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1196 1275 23.0% 20.4% 56.6% +37.1 7
2021-05-24 Breidablik L 2-3 1117 1210 34.0% 20.8% 45.2% -11.4 5
2021-05-24 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 1210 1117 45.2% 20.8% 34.0% +11.4 10
2021-05-24 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1102 1225 30.1% 20.7% 49.1% -11.6 2
2021-05-24 @ Stjarnan W 1-0 1225 1102 49.1% 20.7% 30.1% +11.6 13
2021-05-24 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1065 1296 18.6% 20.0% 61.4% -7.2 3
2021-05-24 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1296 1065 61.4% 20.0% 18.6% +7.2 16
2021-05-25 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1144 1238 33.9% 20.8% 45.3% +15.2 8
2021-05-25 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1238 1144 45.3% 20.8% 33.9% -15.2 10
2021-05-25 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1220 1095 61.4% 20.0% 18.7% -2.6 14
2021-05-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1095 1220 18.7% 20.0% 61.4% +2.6 6
2021-05-25 HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1233 1076 64.3% 19.6% 16.0% -4.0 8
2021-05-25 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1076 1233 16.0% 19.6% 64.3% +4.0 3
2021-05-30 IA Akranes W 3-1 1229 1105 61.3% 20.0% 18.8% +12.5 11
2021-05-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1105 1229 18.8% 20.0% 61.3% -12.5 5
2021-05-30 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1080 1160 35.8% 20.9% 43.3% +14.7 6
2021-05-30 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1160 1080 43.3% 20.9% 35.8% -14.6 8
2021-05-30 Stjarnan D 1-1 1098 1090 47.9% 20.8% 31.3% -1.3 7
2021-05-30 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1090 1098 31.3% 20.8% 47.9% +1.3 3
2021-06-07 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1303 1217 57.4% 20.3% 22.3% -2.8 17
2021-06-07 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1217 1303 22.3% 20.3% 57.4% +2.8 15
2021-06-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1220 1223 46.5% 20.8% 32.6% +23.3 18
2021-06-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1223 1220 32.6% 20.8% 46.5% -23.3 10
2021-06-12 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1221 1097 61.4% 20.0% 18.7% +14.4 13
2021-06-12 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1097 1221 18.7% 20.0% 61.4% -14.4 7
2021-06-12 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1092 1300 20.7% 20.2% 59.1% +19.3 6
2021-06-12 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1300 1092 59.1% 20.2% 20.7% -19.3 17
2021-06-14 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1145 1242 33.5% 20.8% 45.6% -23.8 8
2021-06-14 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-0 1242 1145 45.6% 20.8% 33.5% +23.8 14
2021-06-16 Breidablik W 3-1 1281 1236 52.7% 20.6% 26.7% +17.1 20
2021-06-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1236 1281 26.7% 20.6% 52.7% -17.1 13
2021-06-16 HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1058 1095 41.8% 20.9% 37.3% +26.0 6
2021-06-16 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1095 1058 37.3% 20.9% 41.8% -26.0 6
2021-06-16 KA Akureyri L 0-2 1093 1236 27.6% 20.6% 51.8% -20.3 5
2021-06-16 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1236 1093 51.8% 20.6% 27.6% +20.3 16
2021-06-16 Stjarnan D 1-1 1200 1111 57.6% 20.3% 22.1% -2.9 11
2021-06-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1111 1200 22.1% 20.3% 57.6% +2.9 7
2021-06-20 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-0 1219 1197 49.8% 20.7% 29.5% +40.7 16
2021-06-20 @ Breidablik L 0-4 1197 1219 29.5% 20.7% 49.8% -40.7 11
2021-06-20 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1114 1069 52.7% 20.6% 26.7% +9.9 10
2021-06-20 @ Stjarnan L 1-2 1069 1114 26.7% 20.6% 52.7% -9.9 6
2021-06-20 IA Akranes W 3-1 1082 1072 48.2% 20.8% 31.0% +19.4 10
2021-06-20 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1072 1082 31.0% 20.8% 48.2% -19.4 5
2021-06-20 Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1084 1121 41.8% 20.9% 37.4% +13.8 9
2021-06-20 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1121 1084 37.4% 20.9% 41.8% -13.8 8
2021-06-20 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1257 1298 41.2% 20.9% 37.9% -14.9 16
2021-06-20 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1298 1257 37.9% 20.9% 41.2% +14.9 23
2021-06-21 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1243 1265 43.9% 20.9% 35.2% -0.7 19
2021-06-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1265 1243 35.2% 20.9% 43.9% +0.7 15
2021-06-27 Breidablik L 2-3 1059 1259 21.5% 20.2% 58.3% -7.7 6
2021-06-27 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1259 1059 58.3% 20.2% 21.5% +7.7 19
2021-06-27 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1313 1102 68.8% 18.9% 12.3% -4.8 24
2021-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1102 1313 12.3% 18.9% 68.8% +4.8 11
2021-06-27 KA Akureyri D 1-1 1156 1242 35.0% 20.9% 44.2% +0.7 12
2021-06-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1242 1156 44.2% 20.9% 35.0% -0.7 17
2021-06-28 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1053 1097 40.8% 20.9% 38.3% -0.1 6
2021-06-28 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1097 1053 38.3% 20.9% 40.8% +0.1 10
2021-06-28 Stjarnan L 1-2 1266 1124 63.0% 19.8% 17.2% -20.5 15
2021-06-28 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1124 1266 17.2% 19.8% 63.0% +20.5 13
2021-06-28 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1107 1243 28.6% 20.7% 50.7% +16.8 11
2021-06-28 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1243 1107 50.7% 20.7% 28.6% -16.8 19
2021-07-01 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1308 1157 63.9% 19.7% 16.5% +12.8 27
2021-07-01 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1157 1308 16.5% 19.7% 63.9% -12.8 12
2021-07-03 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1144 1097 52.9% 20.6% 26.5% -16.5 13
2021-07-03 @ Stjarnan W 3-2 1097 1144 26.5% 20.6% 52.9% +16.5 13
2021-07-03 Leiknir Reykjavik W 4-0 1267 1124 63.1% 19.8% 17.2% +25.2 22
2021-07-03 @ Breidablik L 0-4 1124 1267 17.2% 19.8% 63.1% -25.3 11
2021-07-05 IA Akranes W 1-0 1226 1053 65.7% 19.4% 14.9% +6.2 22
2021-07-05 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1053 1226 14.9% 19.4% 65.7% -6.2 6
2021-07-05 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1241 1246 46.4% 20.8% 32.8% -15.5 17
2021-07-05 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1246 1241 32.8% 20.8% 46.4% +15.5 18
2021-07-09 HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1106 1051 53.9% 20.5% 25.6% -17.7 11
2021-07-09 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1051 1106 25.6% 20.5% 53.9% +17.7 9
2021-07-12 IA Akranes W 2-0 1099 1047 53.5% 20.6% 25.9% +19.2 14
2021-07-12 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 1047 1099 25.9% 20.6% 53.5% -19.2 6
2021-07-12 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1261 1114 63.4% 19.7% 16.8% +6.9 21
2021-07-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1114 1261 16.8% 19.7% 63.4% -6.9 13
2021-07-13 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1089 1226 28.4% 20.7% 50.9% +16.8 14
2021-07-13 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1226 1089 50.9% 20.7% 28.4% -16.8 17
2021-07-13 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1069 1232 25.4% 20.5% 54.1% +2.6 10
2021-07-13 @ HK Kopavogur D 0-0 1232 1069 54.1% 20.5% 25.4% -2.6 23
2021-07-17 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1028 1321 13.9% 19.2% 66.9% +21.8 9
2021-07-17 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1321 1028 66.9% 19.2% 13.9% -21.8 27
2021-07-18 Breidablik D 1-1 1268 1292 43.6% 20.9% 35.5% -0.6 22
2021-07-18 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1292 1268 35.5% 20.9% 43.6% +0.6 23
2021-07-18 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1144 1105 51.9% 20.6% 27.5% +10.7 15
2021-07-18 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1105 1144 27.5% 20.6% 51.9% -10.7 14
2021-07-18 HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1209 1071 62.6% 19.8% 17.6% +13.6 20
2021-07-18 @ KA Akureyri L 0-2 1071 1209 17.6% 19.8% 62.6% -13.6 10
2021-07-19 Stjarnan W 2-0 1118 1128 45.6% 20.8% 33.5% +23.8 17
2021-07-19 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 1128 1118 33.5% 20.8% 45.6% -23.8 13
2021-07-19 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1107 1229 30.2% 20.7% 49.1% -10.9 13
2021-07-19 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1229 1107 49.1% 20.7% 30.2% +10.9 26
2021-07-25 Breidablik W 2-0 1096 1293 21.8% 20.3% 57.9% +37.9 16
2021-07-25 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1293 1096 57.9% 20.3% 21.8% -37.9 23
2021-07-25 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1049 1155 32.4% 20.8% 46.8% -33.6 9
2021-07-25 @ IA Akranes W 3-0 1155 1049 46.8% 20.8% 32.4% +33.6 18
2021-07-25 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1142 1222 35.7% 20.9% 43.4% -13.3 17
2021-07-25 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1222 1142 43.4% 20.9% 35.7% +13.3 23
2021-07-25 Stjarnan W 3-2 1240 1104 62.5% 19.9% 17.7% +6.5 29
2021-07-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-3 1104 1240 17.7% 19.9% 62.5% -6.5 13
2021-07-25 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1058 1299 17.8% 19.9% 62.4% -20.0 10
2021-07-25 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1299 1058 62.4% 19.9% 17.8% +20.0 30
2021-07-26 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-0 1267 1095 65.7% 19.4% 14.9% +22.1 25
2021-07-26 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-4 1095 1267 14.9% 19.4% 65.7% -22.1 14
2021-08-02 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-0 1255 1247 48.0% 20.8% 31.2% +42.6 26
2021-08-02 @ Breidablik L 0-4 1247 1255 31.2% 20.8% 48.0% -42.6 29
2021-08-03 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1236 1134 59.1% 20.2% 20.8% +7.9 26
2021-08-03 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1134 1236 20.8% 20.2% 59.1% -7.9 16
2021-08-03 Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1073 1129 39.1% 20.9% 40.0% +0.1 15
2021-08-03 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1129 1073 40.0% 20.9% 39.1% -0.1 18
2021-08-04 HK Kopavogur L 2-4 1188 1038 63.8% 19.7% 16.5% -32.2 18
2021-08-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-2 1038 1188 16.5% 19.7% 63.8% +32.2 13
2021-08-04 IA Akranes W 4-0 1098 1016 56.9% 20.3% 22.7% +32.5 16
2021-08-04 @ Stjarnan L 0-4 1016 1098 22.7% 20.3% 56.9% -32.6 9
2021-08-04 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1319 1289 50.8% 20.7% 28.5% +11.1 33
2021-08-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1289 1319 28.5% 20.7% 50.8% -11.0 25
2021-08-08 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1278 1156 61.1% 20.0% 18.9% -3.5 26
2021-08-08 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1156 1278 18.9% 20.0% 61.1% +3.5 19
2021-08-08 Fylkir Reykjavik D 1-1 1126 1073 53.7% 20.5% 25.8% -2.2 17
2021-08-08 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1073 1126 25.8% 20.5% 53.7% +2.2 16
2021-08-08 HK Kopavogur W 4-1 983 1070 34.8% 20.8% 44.3% +36.6 12
2021-08-08 @ IA Akranes L 1-4 1070 983 44.3% 20.8% 34.8% -36.6 13
2021-08-08 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1204 1244 41.5% 20.9% 37.6% -0.2 30
2021-08-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1244 1204 37.6% 20.9% 41.5% +0.2 27
2021-08-08 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1129 1330 21.3% 20.2% 58.4% +20.3 21
2021-08-08 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1330 1129 58.4% 20.2% 21.3% -20.3 33
2021-08-09 Breidablik L 1-3 1130 1298 24.9% 20.5% 54.6% -16.1 16
2021-08-09 @ Stjarnan W 3-1 1298 1130 54.6% 20.5% 24.9% +16.1 29
2021-08-15 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1310 1124 66.8% 19.3% 14.0% +5.5 36
2021-08-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1124 1310 14.0% 19.3% 66.8% -5.5 17
2021-08-15 Leiknir Reykjavik W 5-0 1160 1149 48.4% 20.8% 30.9% +52.1 22
2021-08-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-5 1149 1160 30.9% 20.8% 48.4% -52.1 21
2021-08-15 Stjarnan W 2-1 1244 1114 61.9% 19.9% 18.2% +7.0 30
2021-08-15 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1114 1244 18.2% 19.9% 61.9% -7.0 16
2021-08-16 IA Akranes W 2-1 1314 1020 74.1% 17.6% 8.2% +3.2 32
2021-08-16 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1020 1314 8.2% 17.6% 74.1% -3.2 12
2021-08-16 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1033 1275 17.8% 19.9% 62.4% -7.3 13
2021-08-16 @ HK Kopavogur W 1-0 1275 1033 62.4% 19.9% 17.8% +7.3 29
2021-08-16 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 1075 1204 29.3% 20.7% 50.0% -31.0 16
2021-08-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1204 1075 50.0% 20.7% 29.3% +31.0 33
2021-08-21 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-5 1118 1212 34.0% 20.8% 45.2% -56.3 17
2021-08-21 @ Keflavik IF W 5-0 1212 1118 45.2% 20.8% 34.0% +56.3 25
2021-08-21 KA Akureyri W 2-0 1317 1251 55.2% 20.5% 24.4% +18.2 35
2021-08-21 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1251 1317 24.4% 20.5% 55.2% -18.2 30
2021-08-22 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1235 1316 35.7% 20.9% 43.5% +14.7 36
2021-08-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1316 1235 43.5% 20.9% 35.7% -14.7 36
2021-08-23 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1107 1044 54.8% 20.5% 24.7% +18.4 19
2021-08-23 @ Stjarnan L 0-2 1044 1107 24.7% 20.5% 54.8% -18.4 16
2021-08-23 HK Kopavogur D 0-0 1097 1026 55.7% 20.4% 23.9% -2.8 22
2021-08-23 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1026 1097 23.9% 20.4% 55.7% +2.8 14
2021-08-25 Breidablik L 0-2 1233 1335 32.7% 20.8% 46.5% -23.4 30
2021-08-25 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 1335 1233 46.5% 20.8% 32.7% +23.4 38
2021-08-25 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1268 1062 68.3% 19.0% 12.7% -5.3 26
2021-08-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1062 1268 12.7% 19.0% 68.3% +5.3 18
2021-08-25 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1016 1282 15.8% 19.6% 64.6% -12.4 12
2021-08-25 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1282 1016 64.6% 19.6% 15.8% +12.4 32
2021-08-28 Stjarnan L 1-2 1301 1125 65.9% 19.4% 14.7% -21.5 36
2021-08-28 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1125 1301 14.7% 19.4% 65.9% +21.5 22
2021-08-29 Breidablik L 0-7 1025 1359 11.4% 18.7% 69.9% -29.1 16
2021-08-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 7-0 1359 1025 69.9% 18.7% 11.4% +29.1 41
2021-08-29 IA Akranes W 3-0 1209 1004 68.3% 19.0% 12.7% +14.6 33
2021-08-29 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1004 1209 12.7% 19.0% 68.3% -14.6 12
2021-08-29 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1029 1067 41.6% 20.9% 37.5% +13.8 17
2021-08-29 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-1 1067 1029 37.5% 20.9% 41.6% -13.8 18
2021-08-29 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1295 1094 67.9% 19.1% 13.0% +5.1 35
2021-08-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1094 1295 13.0% 19.1% 67.9% -5.1 22
2021-08-29 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1263 1250 48.6% 20.8% 30.6% -16.2 26
2021-08-29 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1250 1263 30.6% 20.8% 48.6% +16.2 39
2021-09-11 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-0 1224 996 69.9% 18.7% 11.4% +9.0 36
2021-09-11 @ KA Akureyri L 0-2 996 1224 11.4% 18.7% 69.9% -9.0 16
2021-09-11 HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1266 1043 69.6% 18.8% 11.7% +13.4 42
2021-09-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 1043 1266 11.7% 18.8% 69.6% -13.4 17
2021-09-11 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1054 1300 17.4% 19.8% 62.8% -13.5 18
2021-09-11 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1300 1054 62.8% 19.8% 17.4% +13.5 38
2021-09-11 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-1 990 1089 33.2% 20.8% 46.0% +26.7 15
2021-09-11 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1089 990 46.0% 20.8% 33.2% -26.7 22
2021-09-11 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1388 1279 59.7% 20.1% 20.2% +22.4 44
2021-09-11 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1279 1388 20.2% 20.1% 59.7% -22.4 36
2021-09-13 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1147 1247 33.1% 20.8% 46.1% -44.8 22
2021-09-13 @ Stjarnan W 4-0 1247 1147 46.1% 20.8% 33.1% +44.8 29
2021-09-19 Breidablik W 1-0 1291 1410 30.6% 20.8% 48.6% +17.1 32
2021-09-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1410 1291 48.6% 20.8% 30.6% -17.1 44
2021-09-19 Fylkir Reykjavik W 5-0 1016 987 50.7% 20.7% 28.6% +48.9 18
2021-09-19 @ IA Akranes L 0-5 987 1016 28.6% 20.7% 50.7% -48.9 16
2021-09-19 KA Akureyri L 1-4 1257 1233 50.1% 20.7% 29.2% -40.6 36
2021-09-19 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-1 1233 1257 29.2% 20.7% 50.1% +40.6 39
2021-09-19 Keflavik IF L 0-1 1062 1040 49.8% 20.7% 29.5% -17.5 22
2021-09-19 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1040 1062 29.5% 20.7% 49.8% +17.5 21
2021-09-19 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1313 1279 51.3% 20.7% 28.0% -17.0 38
2021-09-19 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1279 1313 28.0% 20.7% 51.3% +16.9 45
2021-09-20 Stjarnan W 1-0 1029 1102 36.8% 20.9% 42.4% +15.2 20
2021-09-20 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-1 1102 1029 42.4% 20.9% 36.8% -15.2 22
2021-09-25 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1274 1308 42.1% 20.9% 37.0% -0.3 40
2021-09-25 @ KA Akureyri D 2-2 1308 1274 37.0% 20.9% 42.1% +0.3 33
2021-09-25 HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1393 1045 77.0% 16.7% 6.3% +7.1 47
2021-09-25 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1045 1393 6.3% 16.7% 77.0% -7.1 20
2021-09-25 IA Akranes L 2-3 1058 1065 45.9% 20.8% 33.2% -14.6 21
2021-09-25 @ Keflavik IF W 3-2 1065 1058 33.2% 20.8% 45.9% +14.6 21
2021-09-25 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1087 1296 20.6% 20.2% 59.2% -15.7 22
2021-09-25 @ Stjarnan W 2-0 1296 1087 59.2% 20.2% 20.6% +15.7 41
2021-09-25 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-0 1296 1045 71.5% 18.3% 10.1% +8.0 48
2021-09-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1045 1296 10.1% 18.3% 71.5% -8.0 22
2021-09-25 Valur Reykjavik L 0-6 938 1216 14.9% 19.4% 65.6% -32.5 16
2021-09-25 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 6-0 1216 938 65.6% 19.4% 14.9% +32.5 39

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2021-07-17 13.86% @ IA Akranes 1028 2 Valur Reykjavik 1321 1
2 2021-08-28 14.68% Stjarnan 1125 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1301 1
3 2021-08-04 16.54% HK Kopavogur 1038 4 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1188 2
4 2021-06-28 17.20% Stjarnan 1124 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1266 1
5 2021-06-12 20.68% @ Stjarnan 1092 2 Valur Reykjavik 1300 1
6 2021-08-08 21.34% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1129 1 Valur Reykjavik 1330 0
7 2021-07-25 21.83% @ Keflavik IF 1096 2 Breidablik 1293 0
8 2021-05-07 21.92% KA Akureyri 1152 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1242 1
9 2021-05-22 22.98% KR Reykjavik 1196 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1275 0
10 2021-07-09 25.58% HK Kopavogur 1051 2 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1106 1
11 2021-07-03 26.51% Keflavik IF 1097 3 @ Stjarnan 1144 2
12 2021-05-21 27.12% Vikingur Reykjavik 1201 1 @ KA Akureyri 1243 0
13 2021-09-19 28.03% Vikingur Reykjavik 1279 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1313 1
14 2021-07-13 28.39% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1089 2 KA Akureyri 1226 1
15 2021-06-28 28.61% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1107 2 Vikingur Reykjavik 1243 1
16 2021-09-19 29.21% KA Akureyri 1233 4 @ Valur Reykjavik 1257 1
17 2021-09-19 29.47% Keflavik IF 1040 1 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1062 0
18 2021-05-21 30.26% IA Akranes 1089 3 @ HK Kopavogur 1104 1
19 2021-08-29 30.60% Vikingur Reykjavik 1250 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1263 1
20 2021-09-19 30.64% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1291 1 Breidablik 1410 0
21 2021-05-13 31.03% Vikingur Reykjavik 1148 3 @ Stjarnan 1157 2
22 2021-07-05 32.84% KR Reykjavik 1246 2 @ KA Akureyri 1241 1
23 2021-09-11 33.16% @ IA Akranes 990 3 Leiknir Reykjavik 1089 1
24 2021-09-25 33.25% IA Akranes 1065 3 @ Keflavik IF 1058 2
25 2021-05-25 33.91% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1144 2 FH Hafnarfjordur 1238 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-08-21 56.31 FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1212 45.21% @ Keflavik IF 0 1118 33.96% 20.84%
2 2021-08-15 52.09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 5 1160 48.35% Leiknir Reykjavik 0 1149 30.88% 20.77%
3 2021-09-19 48.90 @ IA Akranes 5 1016 50.69% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 987 28.63% 20.69%
4 2021-09-13 44.75 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1247 46.08% @ Stjarnan 0 1147 33.10% 20.82%
5 2021-08-02 42.64 @ Breidablik 4 1255 48.01% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1247 31.21% 20.78%
6 2021-05-13 41.85 @ Breidablik 4 1167 48.73% Keflavik IF 0 1153 30.52% 20.75%
7 2021-06-20 40.67 @ Breidablik 4 1219 49.80% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1197 29.49% 20.72%
8 2021-09-19 40.62 KA Akureyri 4 1233 29.21% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1257 50.08% 20.71%
9 2021-05-21 39.76 @ Breidablik 4 1170 50.61% Stjarnan 0 1142 28.70% 20.69%
10 2021-05-16 38.74 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1163 40.54% Breidablik 0 1209 38.57% 20.89%
11 2021-07-25 37.88 @ Keflavik IF 2 1096 21.83% Breidablik 0 1293 57.89% 20.28%
12 2021-05-22 37.11 KR Reykjavik 2 1196 22.98% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1275 56.64% 20.37%
13 2021-08-08 36.57 @ IA Akranes 4 983 34.83% HK Kopavogur 1 1070 44.32% 20.85%
14 2021-07-25 33.63 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1155 46.83% @ IA Akranes 0 1049 32.36% 20.81%
15 2021-05-07 32.75 KA Akureyri 3 1152 21.92% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1242 57.80% 20.29%
16 2021-08-04 32.55 @ Stjarnan 4 1098 56.92% IA Akranes 0 1016 22.73% 20.35%
17 2021-09-25 32.50 Valur Reykjavik 6 1216 65.63% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 938 14.94% 19.44%
18 2021-05-16 32.44 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 3 1119 48.24% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1109 30.99% 20.77%
19 2021-08-04 32.19 HK Kopavogur 4 1038 16.54% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1188 63.76% 19.69%
20 2021-08-16 31.00 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1204 49.95% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1075 29.34% 20.71%
21 2021-05-02 30.17 KR Reykjavik 2 1212 34.27% @ Breidablik 0 1197 44.89% 20.84%
22 2021-05-12 29.61 @ KA Akureyri 3 1185 51.58% Leiknir Reykjavik 0 1149 27.77% 20.65%
23 2021-08-29 29.09 Breidablik 7 1359 69.86% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1025 11.44% 18.70%
24 2021-05-17 28.57 KA Akureyri 4 1215 46.52% @ Keflavik IF 1 1112 32.67% 20.81%
25 2021-05-21 28.17 IA Akranes 3 1089 30.26% @ HK Kopavogur 1 1104 49.00% 20.75%