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2020 League of Ireland First Division Season

90 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Bray Wanderers

6.64 points above expected

38 points · 31.36 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shamrock Rovers II

12.64 points below expected

15 points · 27.64 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Drogheda United 18 12 3 3 39 39 17 +22 34.20 +4.80
2 Bray Wanderers 18 12 2 4 38 30 13 +17 31.36 +6.64
3 UC Dublin 18 9 3 6 30 44 29 +15 25.68 +4.32
4 Longford Town 18 9 2 7 29 26 23 +3 29.42 -0.42
5 Galway United 18 7 6 5 27 26 19 +7 24.89 +2.11
6 Cobh Ramblers 18 8 3 7 27 22 20 +2 21.71 +5.29
7 Cabinteely 18 8 2 8 26 22 33 -11 27.60 -1.60
8 Shamrock Rovers II 18 4 3 11 15 21 28 -7 27.64 -12.64
9 Athlone Town 18 3 3 12 12 21 43 -22 14.06 -2.06
10 Wexford 18 3 3 12 12 13 39 -26 14.21 -2.21

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bray Wanderers 38 31.36 +6.64
2 Cobh Ramblers 27 21.71 +5.29
3 Drogheda United 39 34.20 +4.80
4 UC Dublin 30 25.68 +4.32
5 Galway United 27 24.89 +2.11

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shamrock Rovers II 15 27.64 -12.64
2 Wexford 12 14.21 -2.21
3 Athlone Town 12 14.06 -2.06
4 Cabinteely 26 27.60 -1.60
5 Longford Town 29 29.42 -0.42

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cobh Ramblers 4 Aug 18 – Sep 7 1 in 129
2 Galway United 5 Sep 4 – Sep 21 1 in 78
3 Cabinteely 4 Feb 21 – Jul 31 1 in 21
4 Bray Wanderers 5 Sep 4 – Sep 21 1 in 15
5 UC Dublin 3 Aug 17 – Sep 4 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shamrock Rovers II 6 Sep 4 – Sep 26 1 in 329
2 Wexford 8 Aug 15 – Sep 21 1 in 61
3 Cobh Ramblers 3 Sep 12 – Sep 21 1 in 21
4 Cabinteely 3 Aug 21 – Sep 7 1 in 20
5 Longford Town 2 Aug 17 – Aug 22 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Galway United 6 Aug 21 – Sep 21 1 in 18
2 Cobh Ramblers 4 Aug 18 – Sep 7 1 in 14
3 Athlone Town 3 Sep 11 – Sep 21 1 in 12
4 Cabinteely 7 Feb 21 – Aug 17 1 in 12
5 Wexford 3 Mar 6 – Aug 7 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Galway United 8 Feb 29 – Aug 21 1 in 46
2 Shamrock Rovers II 6 Sep 4 – Sep 26 1 in 20
3 Cabinteely 4 Aug 21 – Sep 11 1 in 16
4 Athlone Town 11 Feb 28 – Sep 11 1 in 11
5 Wexford 9 Aug 7 – Sep 21 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Drogheda United 1217 39 +4 12 9.9 +2.1
Bray Wanderers 1196 38 +7 9 9.0 +0.0
UC Dublin 1128 30 +31 10 7.9 +2.1
Longford Town 1094 29 -15 6 9.3 -3.3
Cobh Ramblers 1036 27 +42 10 6.4 +3.6
Galway United 1110 27 +16 7 6.5 +0.5
Cabinteely 996 26 -92 3 6.7 -3.7
Shamrock Rovers II 1047 15 -11 7 7.5 -0.5
Wexford 859 12 +21 6 3.5 +2.5
Athlone Town 871 12 -2 3 3.0 -0.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AT BW CAB CR DU GU LT SRI UD WEX
Athlone Town —
0-0-2
0.95
0-1-1
1.38
1-0-1
1.87
1-1-0
0.93
0-1-1
1.67
0-0-2
1.26
0-0-2
1.49
0-0-2
1.50
1-0-1
2.81
Bray Wanderers
2-0-0
4.69
 —
1-0-1
2.87
1-1-0
3.89
0-0-2
2.53
0-1-1
3.63
2-0-0
2.82
2-0-0
3.45
2-0-0
3.29
2-0-0
4.38
Cabinteely
1-1-0
4.22
1-0-1
2.68
 —
2-0-0
3.41
0-0-2
1.76
1-0-1
3.14
1-0-1
2.62
2-0-0
2.76
0-0-2
2.90
0-1-1
4.32
Cobh Ramblers
1-0-1
3.70
0-1-1
1.69
0-0-2
2.16
 —
1-0-1
1.74
1-1-0
2.26
2-0-0
2.01
1-1-0
2.55
0-0-2
2.57
2-0-0
3.55
Drogheda United
0-1-1
4.73
2-0-0
3.03
2-0-0
3.81
1-0-1
3.84
 —
2-0-0
3.62
0-1-1
3.22
1-1-0
3.51
2-0-0
3.42
2-0-0
4.69
Galway United
1-1-0
3.91
1-1-0
1.94
1-0-1
2.41
0-1-1
3.30
0-0-2
1.95
 —
1-0-1
2.23
1-1-0
2.45
1-1-0
2.45
1-1-0
4.06
Longford Town
2-0-0
4.35
0-0-2
2.74
1-0-1
2.93
0-0-2
3.56
1-1-0
2.34
1-0-1
3.33
 —
2-0-0
2.65
1-1-0
3.16
1-0-1
4.37
Shamrock Rovers II
2-0-0
4.10
0-0-2
2.12
0-0-2
2.79
0-1-1
3.01
0-1-1
2.06
0-1-1
3.11
0-0-2
2.90
 —
0-0-2
2.93
2-0-0
3.93
UC Dublin
2-0-0
4.09
0-0-2
2.27
2-0-0
2.68
2-0-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
3.11
0-1-1
2.39
2-0-0
2.62
 —
1-1-0
3.91
Wexford
1-0-1
2.75
0-0-2
1.23
1-1-0
1.28
0-0-2
2.02
0-0-2
0.96
0-1-1
1.53
1-0-1
1.24
0-0-2
1.65
0-1-1
1.67
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.55 +7.8
Allowed 0.71 -8.4
Differential 0.85 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%9.44%8.33%3.33%2.22%1.11%31.11%
19.44%4.44%3.89%7.22%0.56%2.22%27.78%
28.33%3.89%4.44%1.11%1.11%1.11%20.00%
33.33%7.22%1.11%1.11%——12.78%
42.22%0.56%1.11%———3.89%
5+1.11%2.22%1.11%———4.44%
Total31.11%27.78%20.00%12.78%3.89%4.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.47 1.47 2.27
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—11.11%—22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%5.56%—44.44%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%16.67%33.33%22.22%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.39 -1.22
SD 0.86 1.33 1.66
CV 0.73 0.56 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
111.11%——5.56%——16.67%
222.22%5.56%——5.56%—33.33%
311.11%16.67%————27.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total55.56%33.33%—5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 0.72 +0.94
SD 1.14 1.13 1.59
CV 0.68 1.56 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%——33.33%
111.11%5.56%———16.67%33.33%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%11.11%16.67%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.83 -0.61
SD 1.22 1.79 2.38
CV 0.99 0.98 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%——5.56%33.33%
122.22%—16.67%———38.89%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
3——5.56%———5.56%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+———————
Total50.00%11.11%33.33%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.11 +0.11
SD 1.31 1.53 2.25
CV 1.07 1.38 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
111.11%5.56%————16.67%
216.67%—5.56%———22.22%
35.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
4———————
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total33.33%44.44%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 0.94 +1.22
SD 1.50 0.87 1.66
CV 0.69 0.92 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
116.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total33.33%33.33%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.06 +0.39
SD 1.62 0.94 1.65
CV 1.12 0.89 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
211.11%5.56%———5.56%22.22%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%16.67%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.28 +0.17
SD 1.25 1.56 2.20
CV 0.86 1.22 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%16.67%———38.89%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
211.11%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%33.33%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.56 -0.39
SD 1.20 1.29 1.82
CV 1.03 0.83 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%—16.67%—5.56%33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+11.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
Total27.78%22.22%22.22%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 1.61 +0.83
SD 2.31 1.42 3.19
CV 0.94 0.88 —
Max 8 5 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%22.22%5.56%11.11%5.56%66.67%
1—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%33.33%22.22%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 2.17 -1.44
SD 1.36 1.89 2.59
CV 1.89 0.87 —
Max 5 8 +4
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Drogheda United 1217 39 34.20 +4.80 84.0% 21 26 30 34 38 43 47
Bray Wanderers 1184 38 31.36 +6.64 88.0% 17 22 27 31 35 41 42
Longford Town 1127 29 29.42 -0.42 50.0% 15 21 25 29 33 38 42
UC Dublin 1118 30 25.68 +4.32 80.0% 12 17 22 25 30 35 40
Galway United 1113 27 24.89 +2.11 72.0% 13 17 21 24 28 33 44
Shamrock Rovers II 1047 15 27.64 -12.64 0.0% 17 19 24 27 32 35 40
Cobh Ramblers 1036 27 21.71 +5.29 87.0% 8 13 18 22 26 31 35
Cabinteely 996 26 27.60 -1.60 41.0% 12 19 24 27 31 38 42
Athlone Town 871 12 14.06 -2.06 40.0% 3 6 9 14 18 23 25
Wexford 859 12 14.21 -2.21 41.0% 4 7 11 14 16 23 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-10.00%
No Edge
36.67%16.67%46.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -34.86 Elo pts.
174 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.22 goals
Road-Tilted
-2-0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.4
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
47%
Drogheda United, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.28 * Some Luck: 4.28 to 6.43 * Lucky: 6.43 to 8.57 * Wild Swing: 8.57 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.23 * Close: 1.23 to 1.85 * Off: 1.85 to 2.46 * Way Off: 2.46 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.37 points
Some Luck
05.3613
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Close
01.544
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
88.00%
Bray Wanderers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Shamrock Rovers II
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 121.26
1.66
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
89%
Clear Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
46%
Few
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.36
Slight Separation
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.04
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.59
Strong Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.16
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.04
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.132
Well Within Noise
00.1730.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Drogheda United47.00%18.00%12.00%11.00%8.00%3.00%1.00%———
Bray Wanderers23.00%26.00%18.00%14.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%—
UC Dublin5.00%10.00%9.00%11.00%8.00%19.00%21.00%11.00%5.00%1.00%
Longford Town12.00%17.00%16.00%17.00%14.00%10.00%6.00%7.00%1.00%—
Galway United1.00%7.00%9.00%9.00%20.00%12.00%21.00%15.00%5.00%1.00%
Cobh Ramblers—3.00%5.00%8.00%9.00%16.00%14.00%26.00%16.00%3.00%
Cabinteely6.00%10.00%13.00%13.00%18.00%18.00%10.00%7.00%3.00%2.00%
Shamrock Rovers II6.00%9.00%18.00%17.00%12.00%12.00%13.00%12.00%1.00%—
Athlone Town—————4.00%6.00%12.00%31.00%47.00%
Wexford————3.00%2.00%5.00%7.00%37.00%46.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Lost promotion playoff Same level
Drogheda United 50.00% 49.00% 1.00%
Cabinteely 6.00% 71.00% 23.00%
Athlone Town — 3.00% 97.00%
Bray Wanderers — 100% —
Cobh Ramblers — 37.00% 63.00%
Galway United — 100% —
Longford Town — 100% —
Shamrock Rovers II — — 100%
UC Dublin — 100% —
Wexford — 4.00% 96.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2020-02-21 Bray Wanderers W 4-248.2 1096 1111 41.61% 22.37% 36.02%-0.29 +13.0 3
2020-02-21 @ Cabinteely L 2-448.2 1111 1096 36.02% 22.37% 41.61%+0.29 -13.0 0
2020-02-21 UC Dublin D 1-154.4 920 1044 27.18% 21.95% 50.87%-0.91 +1.2 1
2020-02-21 @ Wexford D 1-154.4 1044 920 50.87% 21.95% 27.18%+0.91 -1.2 1
2020-02-22 Drogheda United L 0-235.8 1011 1144 26.09% 21.85% 52.06%-0.97 -12.9 0
2020-02-22 @ Cobh Ramblers W 2-035.8 1144 1011 52.06% 21.85% 26.09%+0.97 +12.9 3
2020-02-22 Shamrock Rovers II W 2-039.2 1116 1137 40.69% 22.38% 36.93%-0.32 +17.1 3
2020-02-22 @ Longford Town L 0-239.2 1137 1116 36.93% 22.38% 40.69%+0.32 -17.1 0
2020-02-28 Cabinteely L 1-339.2 923 1109 20.71% 21.14% 58.15%-1.27 -9.1 0
2020-02-28 @ Athlone Town W 3-139.2 1109 923 58.15% 21.14% 20.71%+1.27 +9.1 6
2020-02-28 Cobh Ramblers W 1-039.4 1042 998 49.65% 22.04% 28.32%+0.06 +7.3 4
2020-02-28 @ UC Dublin L 0-139.4 998 1042 28.32% 22.04% 49.65%-0.06 -7.3 0
2020-02-28 Longford Town L 0-145.1 1157 1133 47.06% 22.19% 30.76%-0.06 -11.0 3
2020-02-28 @ Drogheda United W 1-045.1 1133 1157 30.76% 22.19% 47.06%+0.06 +11.0 6
2020-02-28 Wexford W 2-032.1 1098 921 64.21% 20.03% 15.76%+0.81 +8.1 3
2020-02-28 @ Bray Wanderers L 0-232.1 921 1098 15.76% 20.03% 64.21%-0.81 -8.1 1
2020-02-29 Galway United D 1-154.4 1120 1054 52.39% 21.82% 25.80%+0.18 -1.4 1
2020-02-29 @ Shamrock Rovers II D 1-154.4 1054 1120 25.80% 21.82% 52.39%-0.18 +1.4 1
2020-03-06 Galway United D 0-050.3 913 1055 25.13% 21.75% 53.12%-1.02 +1.6 2
2020-03-06 @ Wexford D 0-050.3 1055 913 53.12% 21.75% 25.13%+1.02 -1.6 2
2020-03-06 Shamrock Rovers II W 1-041.3 1118 1119 43.61% 22.32% 34.07%-0.21 +8.5 9
2020-03-06 @ Cabinteely L 0-141.3 1119 1118 34.07% 22.32% 43.61%+0.21 -8.5 1
2020-03-06 UC Dublin W 5-135.2 1146 1050 55.92% 21.44% 22.64%+0.35 +18.0 6
2020-03-06 @ Drogheda United L 1-535.2 1050 1146 22.64% 21.44% 55.92%-0.35 -18.0 4
2020-03-07 Athlone Town W 3-248.0 991 913 53.69% 21.69% 24.62%+0.24 +5.8 3
2020-03-07 @ Cobh Ramblers L 2-348.0 913 991 24.62% 21.69% 53.69%-0.24 -5.8 0
2020-07-31 Cabinteely L 0-238.2 1054 1126 33.53% 22.31% 44.16%-0.62 -15.8 2
2020-07-31 @ Galway United W 2-038.2 1126 1054 44.16% 22.31% 33.53%+0.62 +15.9 12
2020-07-31 Cobh Ramblers D 0-050.5 1106 997 57.39% 21.25% 21.36%+0.43 -2.1 4
2020-07-31 @ Bray Wanderers D 0-050.5 997 1106 21.36% 21.25% 57.39%-0.43 +2.1 4
2020-07-31 Longford Town D 0-050.2 1032 1144 28.59% 22.06% 49.35%-0.84 +1.2 5
2020-07-31 @ UC Dublin D 0-050.2 1144 1032 49.35% 22.06% 28.59%+0.84 -1.2 7
2020-07-31 Wexford L 1-346.1 908 915 42.77% 22.34% 34.88%-0.24 -16.6 0
2020-07-31 @ Athlone Town W 3-146.1 915 908 34.88% 22.34% 42.77%+0.24 +16.6 5
2020-08-02 Drogheda United D 2-259.6 1110 1164 36.11% 22.37% 41.52%-0.51 +0.2 2
2020-08-02 @ Shamrock Rovers II D 2-259.6 1164 1110 41.52% 22.37% 36.11%+0.51 -0.2 7
2020-08-03 Athlone Town D 2-260.0 1038 891 61.29% 20.62% 18.08%+0.64 -1.7 3
2020-08-03 @ Galway United D 2-260.0 891 1038 18.08% 20.62% 61.29%-0.64 +1.7 1
2020-08-03 Bray Wanderers L 0-242.7 1142 1104 48.89% 22.09% 29.02%+0.02 -21.5 7
2020-08-03 @ Longford Town W 2-042.7 1104 1142 29.02% 22.09% 48.89%-0.02 +21.5 7
2020-08-07 Bray Wanderers W 3-142.0 1164 1125 48.89% 22.09% 29.03%+0.02 +12.2 10
2020-08-07 @ Drogheda United L 1-342.0 1125 1164 29.03% 22.09% 48.89%-0.02 -12.2 7
2020-08-07 Cabinteely D 0-050.6 931 1142 18.53% 20.72% 60.75%-1.41 +2.5 6
2020-08-07 @ Wexford D 0-050.6 1142 931 60.75% 20.72% 18.53%+1.41 -2.5 13
2020-08-07 Shamrock Rovers II W 3-146.8 1033 1110 32.93% 22.29% 44.79%-0.64 +17.3 8
2020-08-07 @ UC Dublin L 1-346.8 1110 1033 44.79% 22.29% 32.93%+0.64 -17.3 2
2020-08-08 Athlone Town W 2-030.8 1121 893 68.66% 18.89% 12.45%+1.11 +6.4 10
2020-08-08 @ Longford Town L 0-230.8 893 1121 12.45% 18.89% 68.66%-1.11 -6.4 1
2020-08-08 Galway United D 2-259.5 999 1036 38.46% 22.39% 39.15%-0.41 +0.0 5
2020-08-08 @ Cobh Ramblers D 2-259.5 1036 999 39.15% 22.39% 38.46%+0.41 -0.0 4
2020-08-14 Cobh Ramblers W 1-036.1 1140 999 60.72% 20.73% 18.55%+0.61 +5.0 16
2020-08-14 @ Cabinteely L 0-136.1 999 1140 18.55% 20.73% 60.72%-0.61 -5.0 5
2020-08-14 Drogheda United D 3-364.5 886 1176 12.92% 19.08% 67.99%-1.86 +1.9 2
2020-08-14 @ Athlone Town D 3-364.5 1176 886 67.99% 19.08% 12.92%+1.86 -1.9 11
2020-08-14 Longford Town L 0-140.3 1036 1127 31.10% 22.21% 46.69%-0.73 -7.9 4
2020-08-14 @ Galway United W 1-040.3 1127 1036 46.69% 22.21% 31.10%+0.73 +7.9 13
2020-08-14 UC Dublin W 2-035.8 1113 1050 51.96% 21.86% 26.18%+0.16 +12.9 10
2020-08-14 @ Bray Wanderers L 0-235.8 1050 1113 26.18% 21.86% 51.96%-0.16 -12.9 8
2020-08-15 Wexford W 2-032.6 1093 934 62.55% 20.38% 17.07%+0.71 +8.8 5
2020-08-15 @ Shamrock Rovers II L 0-232.6 934 1093 17.07% 20.38% 62.55%-0.71 -8.8 6
2020-08-17 Athlone Town W 2-140.8 1037 888 61.54% 20.58% 17.88%+0.66 +4.6 11
2020-08-17 @ UC Dublin L 1-240.8 888 1037 17.88% 20.58% 61.54%-0.66 -4.6 2
2020-08-17 Cabinteely L 1-346.1 1135 1145 42.43% 22.35% 35.22%-0.25 -16.5 13
2020-08-17 @ Longford Town W 3-146.1 1145 1135 35.22% 22.35% 42.43%+0.25 +16.5 19
2020-08-17 Galway United W 1-035.9 1174 1028 61.26% 20.63% 18.11%+0.64 +4.9 14
2020-08-17 @ Drogheda United L 0-135.9 1028 1174 18.11% 20.63% 61.26%-0.64 -4.9 4
2020-08-18 Shamrock Rovers II W 1-040.2 1126 1102 47.01% 22.19% 30.80%-0.06 +7.9 13
2020-08-18 @ Bray Wanderers L 0-140.2 1102 1126 30.80% 22.19% 47.01%+0.06 -7.9 5
2020-08-18 Wexford W 4-032.1 994 925 52.66% 21.79% 25.54%+0.19 +24.0 8
2020-08-18 @ Cobh Ramblers L 0-432.1 925 994 25.54% 21.79% 52.66%-0.19 -24.0 6
2020-08-21 Bray Wanderers D 0-050.2 1023 1134 28.71% 22.06% 49.23%-0.84 +1.2 5
2020-08-21 @ Galway United D 0-050.2 1134 1023 49.23% 22.06% 28.71%+0.84 -1.2 14
2020-08-21 Drogheda United L 0-328.9 901 1179 13.63% 19.35% 67.02%-1.80 -10.2 6
2020-08-21 @ Wexford W 3-028.9 1179 901 67.02% 19.35% 13.63%+1.80 +10.2 17
2020-08-21 Shamrock Rovers II L 0-429.7 884 1094 18.58% 20.73% 60.69%-1.41 -18.0 2
2020-08-21 @ Athlone Town W 4-029.7 1094 884 60.69% 20.73% 18.58%+1.41 +18.0 8
2020-08-21 UC Dublin L 0-343.0 1161 1042 58.45% 21.10% 20.45%+0.48 -36.6 19
2020-08-21 @ Cabinteely W 3-043.0 1042 1161 20.45% 21.10% 58.45%-0.48 +36.6 14
2020-08-22 Longford Town W 2-042.4 1018 1119 29.90% 22.14% 47.96%-0.78 +21.1 11
2020-08-22 @ Cobh Ramblers L 0-242.4 1119 1018 47.96% 22.14% 29.90%+0.78 -21.1 13
2020-08-31 Wexford W 3-136.6 1098 891 66.88% 19.38% 13.73%+0.99 +6.1 16
2020-08-31 @ Longford Town L 1-336.6 891 1098 13.73% 19.38% 66.88%-0.99 -6.1 6
2020-09-04 Cabinteely W 3-035.7 1133 1125 44.85% 22.28% 32.87%-0.15 +22.7 17
2020-09-04 @ Bray Wanderers L 0-335.7 1125 1133 32.87% 22.28% 44.85%+0.15 -22.6 19
2020-09-04 Cobh Ramblers L 0-149.0 1189 1039 61.69% 20.55% 17.76%+0.66 -14.0 17
2020-09-04 @ Drogheda United W 1-049.0 1039 1189 17.76% 20.55% 61.69%-0.66 +14.0 14
2020-09-04 Galway United L 1-437.4 866 1024 23.40% 21.54% 55.06%-1.11 -14.3 2
2020-09-04 @ Athlone Town W 4-137.4 1024 866 55.06% 21.54% 23.40%+1.11 +14.3 8
2020-09-04 Longford Town L 1-249.4 1112 1104 44.87% 22.28% 32.85%-0.15 -10.0 8
2020-09-04 @ Shamrock Rovers II W 2-149.4 1104 1112 32.85% 22.28% 44.87%+0.15 +10.0 19
2020-09-04 Wexford W 8-029.4 1079 885 65.75% 19.67% 14.58%+0.91 +27.4 17
2020-09-04 @ UC Dublin L 0-829.4 885 1079 14.58% 19.67% 65.75%-0.91 -27.4 6
2020-09-07 Athlone Town W 3-134.3 1155 851 74.28% 16.97% 8.74%+1.54 +3.8 20
2020-09-07 @ Bray Wanderers L 1-334.3 851 1155 8.74% 16.97% 74.28%-1.54 -3.8 2
2020-09-07 Cabinteely W 5-136.0 1175 1102 53.23% 21.74% 25.03%+0.22 +19.6 20
2020-09-07 @ Drogheda United L 1-536.0 1102 1175 25.03% 21.74% 53.23%-0.22 -19.6 19
2020-09-07 Cobh Ramblers L 0-146.0 1102 1053 50.26% 21.99% 27.75%+0.08 -11.7 8
2020-09-07 @ Shamrock Rovers II W 1-046.0 1053 1102 27.75% 21.99% 50.26%-0.08 +11.7 17
2020-09-07 Galway United L 0-341.4 1106 1039 52.51% 21.81% 25.68%+0.19 -33.2 17
2020-09-07 @ UC Dublin W 3-041.4 1039 1106 25.68% 21.81% 52.51%-0.19 +33.2 11
2020-09-11 Athlone Town D 1-155.3 1082 848 69.20% 18.73% 12.07%+1.15 -3.2 20
2020-09-11 @ Cabinteely D 1-155.3 848 1082 12.07% 18.73% 69.20%-1.15 +3.2 3
2020-09-11 Bray Wanderers L 1-335.9 857 1159 12.21% 18.79% 69.00%-1.93 -5.5 6
2020-09-11 @ Wexford W 3-135.9 1159 857 69.00% 18.79% 12.21%+1.93 +5.5 23
2020-09-11 Shamrock Rovers II W 2-146.9 1072 1090 41.12% 22.37% 36.50%-0.31 +8.5 14
2020-09-11 @ Galway United L 1-246.9 1090 1072 36.50% 22.37% 41.12%+0.31 -8.5 8
2020-09-12 Drogheda United D 1-154.4 1114 1195 32.43% 22.27% 45.30%-0.67 +0.6 20
2020-09-12 @ Longford Town D 1-154.4 1195 1114 45.30% 22.27% 32.43%+0.67 -0.6 21
2020-09-12 UC Dublin L 0-637.7 1064 1073 42.57% 22.35% 35.08%-0.25 -53.2 17
2020-09-12 @ Cobh Ramblers W 6-037.7 1073 1064 35.08% 22.35% 42.57%+0.25 +53.2 20
2020-09-18 Cabinteely L 0-241.3 1082 1079 44.11% 22.31% 33.58%-0.18 -19.7 8
2020-09-18 @ Shamrock Rovers II W 2-041.3 1079 1082 33.58% 22.31% 44.11%+0.18 +19.7 23
2020-09-18 Cobh Ramblers W 2-152.3 851 1011 23.19% 21.52% 55.30%-1.12 +12.0 6
2020-09-18 @ Athlone Town L 1-252.3 1011 851 55.30% 21.52% 23.19%+1.12 -12.0 17
2020-09-18 Drogheda United L 1-343.7 1126 1194 34.13% 22.32% 43.55%-0.59 -13.9 20
2020-09-18 @ UC Dublin W 3-143.7 1194 1126 43.55% 22.32% 34.13%+0.59 +13.9 24
2020-09-18 Longford Town W 3-034.0 1165 1114 50.39% 21.98% 27.63%+0.09 +19.6 26
2020-09-18 @ Bray Wanderers L 0-334.0 1114 1165 27.63% 21.98% 50.39%-0.09 -19.6 20
2020-09-18 Wexford W 1-033.7 1080 852 68.69% 18.88% 12.43%+1.11 +3.4 17
2020-09-18 @ Galway United L 0-133.7 852 1080 12.43% 18.88% 68.69%-1.11 -3.4 6
2020-09-21 Athlone Town L 0-143.5 848 863 41.74% 22.36% 35.90%-0.28 -10.0 6
2020-09-21 @ Wexford W 1-043.5 863 848 35.90% 22.36% 41.74%+0.28 +10.0 9
2020-09-21 Bray Wanderers L 1-241.9 999 1184 20.82% 21.16% 58.02%-1.26 -5.3 17
2020-09-21 @ Cobh Ramblers W 2-141.9 1184 999 58.02% 21.16% 20.82%+1.26 +5.3 29
2020-09-21 Galway United L 0-144.7 1099 1084 45.81% 22.25% 31.95%-0.11 -10.8 23
2020-09-21 @ Cabinteely W 1-044.7 1084 1099 31.95% 22.25% 45.81%+0.11 +10.8 20
2020-09-21 UC Dublin W 3-144.3 1095 1112 41.32% 22.37% 36.31%-0.30 +14.6 23
2020-09-21 @ Longford Town L 1-344.3 1112 1095 36.31% 22.37% 41.32%+0.30 -14.6 20
2020-09-22 Shamrock Rovers II W 3-245.8 1208 1062 61.23% 20.64% 18.13%+0.64 +4.4 27
2020-09-22 @ Drogheda United L 2-345.8 1062 1208 18.13% 20.64% 61.23%-0.64 -4.4 8
2020-09-25 Cobh Ramblers L 0-147.6 1094 994 56.37% 21.38% 22.24%+0.38 -12.9 20
2020-09-25 @ Galway United W 1-047.6 994 1094 22.24% 21.38% 56.37%-0.38 +12.9 20
2020-09-25 Drogheda United L 0-143.4 1190 1213 40.50% 22.38% 37.13%-0.33 -9.8 29
2020-09-25 @ Bray Wanderers W 1-043.4 1213 1190 37.13% 22.38% 40.50%+0.33 +9.8 30
2020-09-25 Longford Town L 0-428.9 873 1109 16.48% 20.23% 63.29%-1.56 -16.1 9
2020-09-25 @ Athlone Town W 4-028.9 1109 873 63.29% 20.23% 16.48%+1.56 +16.1 26
2020-09-25 Wexford L 1-548.5 1088 838 70.36% 18.37% 11.27%+1.23 -47.1 23
2020-09-25 @ Cabinteely W 5-148.5 838 1088 11.27% 18.37% 70.36%-1.23 +47.1 9
2020-09-26 UC Dublin L 2-545.0 1058 1097 38.13% 22.39% 39.48%-0.43 -18.6 8
2020-09-26 @ Shamrock Rovers II W 5-245.0 1097 1058 39.48% 22.39% 38.13%+0.43 +18.6 23
2020-10-02 Athlone Town L 0-249.4 1222 857 78.16% 15.30% 6.54%+1.90 -32.3 30
2020-10-02 @ Drogheda United W 2-049.4 857 1222 6.54% 15.30% 78.16%-1.90 +32.4 12
2020-10-02 Bray Wanderers L 1-343.8 1116 1180 34.75% 22.34% 42.91%-0.57 -14.1 23
2020-10-02 @ UC Dublin W 3-143.8 1180 1116 42.91% 22.34% 34.75%+0.57 +14.1 32
2020-10-02 Shamrock Rovers II L 0-235.0 885 1039 23.90% 21.61% 54.50%-1.08 -11.9 9
2020-10-02 @ Wexford W 2-035.0 1039 885 54.50% 21.61% 23.90%+1.08 +11.9 11
2020-10-03 Cabinteely L 1-247.6 1007 1041 38.93% 22.39% 38.69%-0.40 -8.9 20
2020-10-03 @ Cobh Ramblers W 2-147.6 1041 1007 38.69% 22.39% 38.93%+0.40 +8.9 26
2020-10-03 Galway United L 2-645.4 1126 1082 49.59% 22.04% 28.37%+0.05 -29.2 26
2020-10-03 @ Longford Town W 6-245.4 1082 1126 28.37% 22.04% 49.59%-0.05 +29.2 23
2020-10-09 Cobh Ramblers L 0-432.6 874 998 27.10% 21.94% 50.96%-0.91 -25.2 9
2020-10-09 @ Wexford W 4-032.6 998 874 50.96% 21.94% 27.10%+0.91 +25.2 23
2020-10-09 Longford Town L 0-336.9 1050 1096 37.16% 22.38% 40.46%-0.47 -25.0 26
2020-10-09 @ Cabinteely W 3-036.9 1096 1050 40.46% 22.38% 37.16%+0.47 +25.0 29
2020-10-09 UC Dublin L 2-442.3 889 1102 18.36% 20.69% 60.95%-1.42 -7.3 12
2020-10-09 @ Athlone Town W 4-242.3 1102 889 60.95% 20.69% 18.36%+1.42 +7.3 26
2020-10-10 Bray Wanderers L 0-235.5 1051 1194 25.06% 21.74% 53.20%-1.02 -12.4 11
2020-10-10 @ Shamrock Rovers II W 2-035.5 1194 1051 53.20% 21.74% 25.06%+1.02 +12.4 35
2020-10-16 Cabinteely W 5-135.6 1109 1025 54.52% 21.60% 23.88%+0.28 +18.8 29
2020-10-16 @ UC Dublin L 1-535.6 1025 1109 23.88% 21.60% 54.52%-0.28 -18.8 26
2020-10-17 Athlone Town W 3-137.9 1039 882 62.33% 20.43% 17.24%+0.70 +7.7 14
2020-10-17 @ Shamrock Rovers II L 1-337.9 882 1039 17.24% 20.43% 62.33%-0.70 -7.7 12
2020-10-17 Cobh Ramblers L 0-147.6 1121 1023 56.10% 21.42% 22.48%+0.36 -12.9 29
2020-10-17 @ Longford Town W 1-047.6 1023 1121 22.48% 21.42% 56.10%-0.36 +12.9 26
2020-10-20 Drogheda United L 1-343.2 1111 1190 32.67% 22.28% 45.05%-0.66 -13.4 23
2020-10-20 @ Galway United W 3-143.2 1190 1111 45.05% 22.28% 32.67%+0.66 +13.4 33
2020-10-24 Galway United L 0-148.0 1206 1097 57.35% 21.26% 21.40%+0.43 -13.1 35
2020-10-24 @ Bray Wanderers W 1-048.0 1097 1206 21.40% 21.26% 57.35%-0.43 +13.1 26
2020-10-24 Wexford W 2-028.1 1204 848 77.53% 15.59% 6.88%+1.84 +3.4 36
2020-10-24 @ Drogheda United L 0-228.1 848 1204 6.88% 15.59% 77.53%-1.84 -3.4 9
2020-10-27 Bray Wanderers L 0-133.2 874 1193 11.27% 18.37% 70.35%-2.03 -3.1 12
2020-10-27 @ Athlone Town W 1-033.2 1193 874 70.35% 18.37% 11.27%+2.03 +3.1 38
2020-10-27 Drogheda United L 0-233.5 1006 1207 19.40% 20.90% 59.70%-1.35 -9.9 26
2020-10-27 @ Cabinteely W 2-033.5 1207 1006 59.70% 20.90% 19.40%+1.35 +9.9 39
2020-10-27 Longford Town W 2-154.9 845 1108 14.59% 19.67% 65.74%-1.71 +14.0 12
2020-10-27 @ Wexford L 1-254.9 1108 845 65.74% 19.67% 14.59%+1.71 -14.0 29
2020-10-27 Shamrock Rovers II D 0-050.1 1036 1046 42.31% 22.35% 35.34%-0.26 -0.4 27
2020-10-27 @ Cobh Ramblers D 0-050.1 1046 1036 35.34% 22.35% 42.31%+0.26 +0.4 15
2020-10-27 UC Dublin D 2-259.5 1110 1128 41.27% 22.37% 36.36%-0.30 -0.2 27
2020-10-27 @ Galway United D 2-259.5 1128 1110 36.36% 22.37% 41.27%+0.30 +0.2 30

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2020-10-31 Galway United L 0-1 1196 1110 54.74% 21.58% 23.68%+0.29 -12.6 0-1
2020-10-31 @ Bray Wanderers W 1-0 1110 1196 23.68% 21.58% 54.74%-0.29 +12.6 1-0
2020-10-31 Longford Town L 2-3 1128 1094 48.27% 22.12% 29.61%-0.01 -10.1 0-1
2020-10-31 @ UC Dublin W 3-2 1094 1128 29.61% 22.12% 48.27%+0.01 +10.1 1-0
2020-11-06 Longford Town L 1-2 1123 1104 46.22% 22.23% 31.55%-0.09 -10.2 1-1
2020-11-06 @ Galway United W 2-1 1104 1123 31.55% 22.23% 46.22%+0.09 +10.2 2-0
2020-11-15 Longford Town L 0-1 1197 1115 54.30% 21.63% 24.07%+0.27 -12.5 0-1
2020-11-15 @ Shelbourne W 1-0 1115 1197 24.07% 21.63% 54.30%-0.27 +12.5 3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-10-02 6.54% Athlone Town 857 2 @ Drogheda United 1222 0
2 2020-09-25 11.27% Wexford 838 5 @ Cabinteely 1088 1
3 2020-10-27 14.59% @ Wexford 845 2 Longford Town 1108 1
4 2020-09-04 17.76% Cobh Ramblers 1039 1 @ Drogheda United 1189 0
5 2020-08-21 20.45% UC Dublin 1042 3 @ Cabinteely 1161 0
6 2020-10-24 21.40% Galway United 1097 1 @ Bray Wanderers 1206 0
7 2020-09-25 22.24% Cobh Ramblers 994 1 @ Galway United 1094 0
8 2020-10-17 22.48% Cobh Ramblers 1023 1 @ Longford Town 1121 0
9 2020-09-18 23.19% @ Athlone Town 851 2 Cobh Ramblers 1011 1
10 2020-09-07 25.68% Galway United 1039 3 @ UC Dublin 1106 0
11 2020-09-07 27.75% Cobh Ramblers 1053 1 @ Shamrock Rovers II 1102 0
12 2020-10-03 28.37% Galway United 1082 6 @ Longford Town 1126 2
13 2020-08-03 29.02% Bray Wanderers 1104 2 @ Longford Town 1142 0
14 2020-08-22 29.90% @ Cobh Ramblers 1018 2 Longford Town 1119 0
15 2020-02-28 30.76% Longford Town 1133 1 @ Drogheda United 1157 0
16 2020-09-21 31.95% Galway United 1084 1 @ Cabinteely 1099 0
17 2020-09-04 32.85% Longford Town 1104 2 @ Shamrock Rovers II 1112 1
18 2020-08-07 32.93% @ UC Dublin 1033 3 Shamrock Rovers II 1110 1
19 2020-09-18 33.58% Cabinteely 1079 2 @ Shamrock Rovers II 1082 0
20 2020-07-31 34.88% Wexford 915 3 @ Athlone Town 908 1
21 2020-09-12 35.08% UC Dublin 1073 6 @ Cobh Ramblers 1064 0
22 2020-08-17 35.22% Cabinteely 1145 3 @ Longford Town 1135 1
23 2020-09-21 35.90% Athlone Town 863 1 @ Wexford 848 0
24 2020-09-25 37.13% Drogheda United 1213 1 @ Bray Wanderers 1190 0
25 2020-10-03 38.69% Cabinteely 1041 2 @ Cobh Ramblers 1007 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-09-12 53.16 UC Dublin 6 1073 35.08% @ Cobh Ramblers 0 1064 42.57% 22.35%
2 2020-09-25 47.09 Wexford 5 838 11.27% @ Cabinteely 1 1088 70.36% 18.37%
3 2020-08-21 36.59 UC Dublin 3 1042 20.45% @ Cabinteely 0 1161 58.45% 21.10%
4 2020-09-07 33.22 Galway United 3 1039 25.68% @ UC Dublin 0 1106 52.51% 21.81%
5 2020-10-02 32.35 Athlone Town 2 857 6.54% @ Drogheda United 0 1222 78.16% 15.30%
6 2020-10-03 29.19 Galway United 6 1082 28.37% @ Longford Town 2 1126 49.59% 22.04%
7 2020-09-04 27.45 @ UC Dublin 8 1079 65.75% Wexford 0 885 14.58% 19.67%
8 2020-10-09 25.22 Cobh Ramblers 4 998 50.96% @ Wexford 0 874 27.10% 21.94%
9 2020-10-09 24.97 Longford Town 3 1096 40.46% @ Cabinteely 0 1050 37.16% 22.38%
10 2020-08-18 23.97 @ Cobh Ramblers 4 994 52.66% Wexford 0 925 25.54% 21.79%
11 2020-09-04 22.65 @ Bray Wanderers 3 1133 44.85% Cabinteely 0 1125 32.87% 22.28%
12 2020-08-03 21.49 Bray Wanderers 2 1104 29.02% @ Longford Town 0 1142 48.89% 22.09%
13 2020-08-22 21.14 @ Cobh Ramblers 2 1018 29.90% Longford Town 0 1119 47.96% 22.14%
14 2020-09-18 19.70 Cabinteely 2 1079 33.58% @ Shamrock Rovers II 0 1082 44.11% 22.31%
15 2020-09-07 19.63 @ Drogheda United 5 1175 53.23% Cabinteely 1 1102 25.03% 21.74%
16 2020-09-18 19.62 @ Bray Wanderers 3 1165 50.39% Longford Town 0 1114 27.63% 21.98%
17 2020-10-16 18.84 @ UC Dublin 5 1109 54.52% Cabinteely 1 1025 23.88% 21.60%
18 2020-09-26 18.61 UC Dublin 5 1097 39.48% @ Shamrock Rovers II 2 1058 38.13% 22.39%
19 2020-08-21 18.01 Shamrock Rovers II 4 1094 60.69% @ Athlone Town 0 884 18.58% 20.73%
20 2020-03-06 17.98 @ Drogheda United 5 1146 55.92% UC Dublin 1 1050 22.64% 21.44%
21 2020-08-07 17.28 @ UC Dublin 3 1033 32.93% Shamrock Rovers II 1 1110 44.79% 22.29%
22 2020-02-22 17.10 @ Longford Town 2 1116 40.69% Shamrock Rovers II 0 1137 36.93% 22.38%
23 2020-07-31 16.64 Wexford 3 915 34.88% @ Athlone Town 1 908 42.77% 22.34%
24 2020-08-17 16.53 Cabinteely 3 1145 35.22% @ Longford Town 1 1135 42.43% 22.35%
25 2020-09-25 16.08 Longford Town 4 1109 63.29% @ Athlone Town 0 873 16.48% 20.23%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-08-14 64.5 @ Athlone Town 3 886 12.92% Drogheda United 3 1176 67.99% 19.08%
2 2020-08-03 60.0 @ Galway United 2 1038 61.29% Athlone Town 2 891 18.08% 20.62%
3 2020-08-02 59.6 @ Shamrock Rovers II 2 1110 36.11% Drogheda United 2 1164 41.52% 22.37%
4 2020-08-08 59.5 @ Cobh Ramblers 2 999 38.46% Galway United 2 1036 39.15% 22.39%
5 2020-10-27 59.5 @ Galway United 2 1110 41.27% UC Dublin 2 1128 36.36% 22.37%
6 2020-09-11 55.3 @ Cabinteely 1 1082 69.20% Athlone Town 1 848 12.07% 18.73%
7 2020-10-27 54.9 @ Wexford 2 845 14.59% Longford Town 1 1108 65.74% 19.67%
8 2020-02-21 54.4 @ Wexford 1 920 27.18% UC Dublin 1 1044 50.87% 21.95%
9 2020-02-29 54.4 @ Shamrock Rovers II 1 1120 52.39% Galway United 1 1054 25.80% 21.82%
10 2020-09-12 54.4 @ Longford Town 1 1114 32.43% Drogheda United 1 1195 45.30% 22.27%
11 2020-09-18 52.3 @ Athlone Town 2 851 23.19% Cobh Ramblers 1 1011 55.30% 21.52%
12 2020-08-07 50.6 @ Wexford 0 931 18.53% Cabinteely 0 1142 60.75% 20.72%
13 2020-07-31 50.5 @ Bray Wanderers 0 1106 57.39% Cobh Ramblers 0 997 21.36% 21.25%
14 2020-03-06 50.3 @ Wexford 0 913 25.13% Galway United 0 1055 53.12% 21.75%
15 2020-07-31 50.2 @ UC Dublin 0 1032 28.59% Longford Town 0 1144 49.35% 22.06%
16 2020-08-21 50.2 @ Galway United 0 1023 28.71% Bray Wanderers 0 1134 49.23% 22.06%
17 2020-10-27 50.1 @ Cobh Ramblers 0 1036 42.31% Shamrock Rovers II 0 1046 35.34% 22.35%
18 2020-09-04 49.4 Longford Town 2 1104 32.85% @ Shamrock Rovers II 1 1112 44.87% 22.28%
19 2020-10-02 49.4 Athlone Town 2 857 6.54% @ Drogheda United 0 1222 78.16% 15.30%
20 2020-09-04 49.0 Cobh Ramblers 1 1039 17.76% @ Drogheda United 0 1189 61.69% 20.55%
21 2020-09-25 48.5 Wexford 5 838 11.27% @ Cabinteely 1 1088 70.36% 18.37%
22 2020-02-21 48.2 @ Cabinteely 4 1096 41.61% Bray Wanderers 2 1111 36.02% 22.37%
23 2020-03-07 48.0 @ Cobh Ramblers 3 991 53.69% Athlone Town 2 913 24.62% 21.69%
24 2020-10-24 48.0 Galway United 1 1097 21.40% @ Bray Wanderers 0 1206 57.35% 21.26%
25 2020-09-25 47.6 Cobh Ramblers 1 994 22.24% @ Galway United 0 1094 56.37% 21.38%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-10-24 28.1 @ Drogheda United 2 1204 77.53% Wexford 0 848 6.88% 15.59%
2 2020-08-21 28.9 Drogheda United 3 1179 67.02% @ Wexford 0 901 13.63% 19.35%
3 2020-09-25 28.9 Longford Town 4 1109 63.29% @ Athlone Town 0 873 16.48% 20.23%
4 2020-09-04 29.4 @ UC Dublin 8 1079 65.75% Wexford 0 885 14.58% 19.67%
5 2020-08-21 29.7 Shamrock Rovers II 4 1094 60.69% @ Athlone Town 0 884 18.58% 20.73%
6 2020-08-08 30.8 @ Longford Town 2 1121 68.66% Athlone Town 0 893 12.45% 18.89%
7 2020-02-28 32.1 @ Bray Wanderers 2 1098 64.21% Wexford 0 921 15.76% 20.03%
8 2020-08-18 32.1 @ Cobh Ramblers 4 994 52.66% Wexford 0 925 25.54% 21.79%
9 2020-08-15 32.6 @ Shamrock Rovers II 2 1093 62.55% Wexford 0 934 17.07% 20.38%
10 2020-10-09 32.6 Cobh Ramblers 4 998 50.96% @ Wexford 0 874 27.10% 21.94%
11 2020-10-27 33.2 Bray Wanderers 1 1193 70.35% @ Athlone Town 0 874 11.27% 18.37%
12 2020-10-27 33.5 Drogheda United 2 1207 59.70% @ Cabinteely 0 1006 19.40% 20.90%
13 2020-09-18 33.7 @ Galway United 1 1080 68.69% Wexford 0 852 12.43% 18.88%
14 2020-09-18 34.0 @ Bray Wanderers 3 1165 50.39% Longford Town 0 1114 27.63% 21.98%
15 2020-09-07 34.3 @ Bray Wanderers 3 1155 74.28% Athlone Town 1 851 8.74% 16.97%
16 2020-10-02 35.0 Shamrock Rovers II 2 1039 54.50% @ Wexford 0 885 23.90% 21.61%
17 2020-03-06 35.2 @ Drogheda United 5 1146 55.92% UC Dublin 1 1050 22.64% 21.44%
18 2020-10-10 35.5 Bray Wanderers 2 1194 53.20% @ Shamrock Rovers II 0 1051 25.06% 21.74%
19 2020-10-16 35.6 @ UC Dublin 5 1109 54.52% Cabinteely 1 1025 23.88% 21.60%
20 2020-09-04 35.7 @ Bray Wanderers 3 1133 44.85% Cabinteely 0 1125 32.87% 22.28%
21 2020-02-22 35.8 Drogheda United 2 1144 52.06% @ Cobh Ramblers 0 1011 26.09% 21.85%
22 2020-08-14 35.8 @ Bray Wanderers 2 1113 51.96% UC Dublin 0 1050 26.18% 21.86%
23 2020-08-17 35.9 @ Drogheda United 1 1174 61.26% Galway United 0 1028 18.11% 20.63%
24 2020-09-11 35.9 Bray Wanderers 3 1159 69.00% @ Wexford 1 857 12.21% 18.79%
25 2020-09-07 36.0 @ Drogheda United 5 1175 53.23% Cabinteely 1 1102 25.03% 21.74%