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2025 League of Ireland First Division Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dundalk

14.98 points above expected

79 points · 64.02 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Athlone Town

20.35 points below expected

20 points · 40.35 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dundalk 36 23 10 3 79 74 31 +43 64.02 +14.98
2 Cobh Ramblers 36 21 6 9 69 70 38 +32 55.47 +13.53
3 Bray Wanderers 36 20 2 14 62 63 53 +10 52.04 +9.96
4 UC Dublin 36 17 8 11 59 50 40 +10 54.65 +4.35
5 Treaty United 36 13 9 14 48 51 48 +3 51.95 -3.95
6 Longford Town 36 12 9 15 45 43 59 -16 37.82 +7.18
7 Wexford 36 12 8 16 44 42 51 -9 49.42 -5.42
8 Finn Harps 36 8 12 16 36 42 55 -13 44.64 -8.64
9 Kerry 36 8 9 19 33 38 58 -20 37.83 -4.83
10 Athlone Town 36 3 11 22 20 29 69 -40 40.35 -20.35

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundalk 79 64.02 +14.98
2 Cobh Ramblers 69 55.47 +13.53
3 Bray Wanderers 62 52.04 +9.96
4 Longford Town 45 37.82 +7.18
5 UC Dublin 59 54.65 +4.35

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Athlone Town 20 40.35 -20.35
2 Finn Harps 36 44.64 -8.64
3 Wexford 44 49.42 -5.42
4 Kerry 33 37.83 -4.83
5 Treaty United 48 51.95 -3.95

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Longford Town 5 Sep 20 – Oct 17 1 in 2,232
2 Bray Wanderers 7 Mar 28 – Apr 25 1 in 769
3 Cobh Ramblers 5 Apr 18 – May 9 1 in 133
4 Dundalk 5 Mar 14 – Apr 11 1 in 65
5 Wexford 3 Sep 19 – Sep 26 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Athlone Town 7 Aug 1 – Sep 19 1 in 80
2 Wexford 3 Apr 25 – May 9 1 in 51
3 Bray Wanderers 3 Jun 13 – Jun 23 1 in 36
4 Kerry 5 Jun 23 – Jul 25 1 in 33
5 Treaty United 3 Aug 9 – Aug 29 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundalk 19 Feb 14 – Jun 20 1 in 298
2 Longford Town 5 Sep 20 – Oct 17 1 in 38
3 Finn Harps 6 Mar 21 – Apr 21 1 in 16
4 Bray Wanderers 7 Mar 28 – Apr 25 1 in 14
5 Cobh Ramblers 8 Jul 25 – Sep 12 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Athlone Town 22 May 16 – Oct 17 1 in 603
2 Finn Harps 9 Apr 21 – Jun 20 1 in 37
3 Treaty United 6 Jul 25 – Aug 29 1 in 24
4 UC Dublin 4 Feb 28 – Mar 21 1 in 11
5 Dundalk 3 Jun 13 – Jun 23 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dundalk 1391 79 +5 10 9.7 +0.3
Cobh Ramblers 1323 69 -11 6 8.6 -2.6
Bray Wanderers 1263 62 -15 6 8.1 -2.1
UC Dublin 1291 59 +18 10 7.9 +2.1
Treaty United 1232 48 +13 10 7.7 +2.3
Longford Town 1184 45 +47 15 4.7 +10.3
Wexford 1214 44 -4 9 7.3 +1.7
Finn Harps 1178 36 -28 1 5.7 -4.7
Kerry 1122 33 -18 3 5.5 -2.5
Athlone Town 1095 20 -6 3 4.9 -1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AT BW CR DUN FH KER LT TU UD WEX
Athlone Town —
0-0-4
4.25
0-0-4
3.85
0-2-2
3.21
1-1-2
4.89
0-2-2
5.71
0-2-2
5.45
0-1-3
4.34
1-1-2
3.93
1-2-1
4.11
Bray Wanderers
4-0-0
6.65
 —
1-0-3
5.02
1-1-2
4.45
2-1-1
6.46
3-0-1
7.13
3-0-1
6.99
2-0-2
5.50
2-0-2
5.39
2-0-2
5.87
Cobh Ramblers
4-0-0
7.05
3-0-1
5.79
 —
0-0-4
4.57
3-1-0
6.39
2-2-0
7.19
2-1-1
7.32
3-0-1
5.69
2-2-0
5.37
2-0-2
6.14
Dundalk
2-2-0
7.81
2-1-1
6.40
4-0-0
6.26
 —
2-1-1
7.13
3-1-0
7.96
3-0-1
8.08
1-3-0
6.31
3-1-0
6.56
3-1-0
6.93
Finn Harps
2-1-1
5.94
1-1-2
4.38
0-1-3
4.46
1-1-2
3.80
 —
2-2-0
6.36
0-4-0
6.38
2-0-2
4.78
0-1-3
4.48
0-2-2
4.91
Kerry
2-2-0
5.08
1-0-3
3.78
0-2-2
3.72
0-1-3
3.08
0-2-2
4.47
 —
2-0-2
5.34
1-2-1
3.84
1-0-3
3.66
1-1-2
4.06
Longford Town
2-2-0
5.34
1-0-3
3.91
1-1-2
3.60
1-0-3
2.96
0-4-0
4.45
2-0-2
5.46
 —
3-0-1
3.85
0-1-3
3.92
2-1-1
4.01
Treaty United
3-1-0
6.54
2-0-2
5.29
1-0-3
5.14
0-3-1
4.50
2-0-2
6.06
1-2-1
7.06
1-0-3
7.03
 —
2-2-0
5.28
1-1-2
5.58
UC Dublin
2-1-1
6.98
2-0-2
5.43
0-2-2
5.45
0-1-3
4.30
3-1-0
6.35
3-0-1
7.26
3-1-0
6.97
0-2-2
5.51
 —
4-0-0
5.64
Wexford
1-2-1
6.74
2-0-2
4.93
2-0-2
4.68
0-1-3
3.94
2-2-0
5.90
2-1-1
6.82
1-1-2
6.87
2-1-1
5.24
0-0-4
5.17
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.93 +11.8
Allowed 0.83 -14.4
Differential 0.95 +7.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.89%5.28%3.06%1.67%1.11%25.56%
18.89%11.67%7.50%4.44%0.56%0.83%33.89%
25.28%7.50%5.56%3.61%0.56%—22.50%
33.06%4.44%3.61%0.56%0.56%—12.22%
41.67%0.56%0.56%0.56%——3.33%
5+1.11%0.83%———0.56%2.50%
Total25.56%33.89%22.50%12.22%3.33%2.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.39 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.85
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%2.78%41.67%
12.78%11.11%13.89%5.56%—2.78%36.11%
22.78%2.78%8.33%8.33%——22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%25.00%27.78%19.44%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 1.92 -1.11
SD 0.79 1.44 1.60
CV 0.98 0.75 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——8.33%——2.78%11.11%
116.67%—13.89%11.11%——41.67%
25.56%8.33%5.56%2.78%——22.22%
3—8.33%5.56%———13.89%
45.56%—2.78%———8.33%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total27.78%19.44%36.11%13.89%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.47 +0.28
SD 1.25 1.21 1.99
CV 0.71 0.82 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%5.56%————8.33%
15.56%8.33%11.11%5.56%——30.56%
211.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%——30.56%
38.33%8.33%5.56%———22.22%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total33.33%36.11%22.22%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.06 +0.89
SD 1.17 0.95 1.69
CV 0.60 0.90 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%2.78%———11.11%
119.44%13.89%————33.33%
22.78%8.33%5.56%2.78%——19.44%
38.33%5.56%8.33%2.78%——25.00%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+2.78%2.78%————5.56%
Total41.67%36.11%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 0.86 +1.19
SD 1.57 0.90 1.74
CV 0.76 1.04 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%5.56%2.78%——19.44%
113.89%16.67%8.33%13.89%2.78%—55.56%
2—2.78%8.33%2.78%——13.89%
3————2.78%—2.78%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+2.78%————2.78%5.56%
Total25.00%22.22%25.00%19.44%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.50 -0.36
SD 1.13 1.30 1.53
CV 0.99 0.87 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%13.89%8.33%5.56%2.78%—36.11%
18.33%13.89%2.78%2.78%—2.78%30.56%
22.78%5.56%2.78%2.78%5.56%—19.44%
32.78%——2.78%2.78%—8.33%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+—————2.78%2.78%
Total22.22%33.33%13.89%13.89%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.58 -0.56
SD 1.13 1.48 1.73
CV 1.10 0.94 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%5.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%27.78%
12.78%16.67%8.33%5.56%2.78%2.78%38.89%
28.33%8.33%2.78%———19.44%
3—5.56%8.33%———13.89%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%25.00%8.33%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.64 -0.44
SD 1.01 1.33 1.83
CV 0.84 0.81 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%8.33%2.78%—2.78%30.56%
15.56%13.89%8.33%———27.78%
25.56%8.33%5.56%5.56%——25.00%
32.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+2.78%2.78%————5.56%
Total25.00%38.89%25.00%8.33%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.33 +0.08
SD 1.38 1.33 2.16
CV 0.97 1.00 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%16.67%2.78%2.78%2.78%—27.78%
111.11%13.89%2.78%———27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%2.78%——25.00%
38.33%5.56%2.78%———16.67%
4———2.78%——2.78%
5+———————
Total27.78%47.22%13.89%8.33%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.11 +0.28
SD 1.15 1.01 1.58
CV 0.83 0.91 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%16.67%5.56%8.33%2.78%—41.67%
12.78%8.33%5.56%———16.67%
28.33%8.33%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3—8.33%2.78%———11.11%
4———2.78%——2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%41.67%19.44%16.67%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.42 -0.25
SD 1.18 1.08 1.59
CV 1.01 0.76 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dundalk 1391 79 64.02 +14.98 97.0% 47 52 59 63 69 77 82
Cobh Ramblers 1323 69 55.47 +13.53 98.0% 39 42 50 56 61 65 76
UC Dublin 1291 59 54.65 +4.35 77.0% 39 44 50 55 59 65 75
Bray Wanderers 1263 62 52.04 +9.96 93.0% 35 39 48 51 56 64 70
Treaty United 1232 48 51.95 -3.95 33.0% 29 37 46 52 57 65 71
Wexford 1214 44 49.42 -5.42 26.0% 29 35 44 50 55 61 68
Longford Town 1184 45 37.82 +7.18 83.0% 19 24 33 37 43 52 58
Finn Harps 1178 36 44.64 -8.64 16.0% 28 31 40 45 49 56 60
Kerry 1122 33 37.83 -4.83 26.0% 20 25 33 37 42 53 59
Athlone Town 1095 20 40.35 -20.35 1.0% 18 30 35 40 45 53 61

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.89%
Slight Edge
45.00%23.89%31.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
144 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
048.57400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.31 goals
Neutral
-2+0.34+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
58%
Dundalk, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Runaway
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6 * Some Luck: 6 to 9 * Lucky: 9 to 12 * Wild Swing: 12 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.26 * Close: 1.26 to 1.89 * Off: 1.89 to 2.52 * Way Off: 2.52 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
10.63 points
Lucky
07.5019
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.584
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.00%
Cobh Ramblers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
Athlone Town
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 90.90
2.25
Wide Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Even
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
65%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.14
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.39
Some Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Shaky Favorites
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.26
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.27
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.088
Well Within Noise
00.1210.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dundalk58.00%23.00%10.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%————
Cobh Ramblers17.00%19.00%22.00%8.00%14.00%6.00%10.00%3.00%1.00%—
Bray Wanderers6.00%11.00%16.00%19.00%17.00%19.00%3.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%
UC Dublin8.00%20.00%22.00%13.00%17.00%9.00%8.00%2.00%1.00%—
Treaty United8.00%16.00%11.00%13.00%16.00%14.00%9.00%7.00%4.00%2.00%
Longford Town——2.00%5.00%2.00%5.00%12.00%17.00%26.00%31.00%
Wexford2.00%7.00%13.00%20.00%11.00%16.00%12.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%
Finn Harps—1.00%3.00%10.00%13.00%14.00%23.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%
Kerry—2.00%1.00%3.00%4.00%6.00%7.00%19.00%29.00%29.00%
Athlone Town1.00%1.00%—4.00%4.00%9.00%16.00%25.00%18.00%22.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Lost promotion playoff Same level
Dundalk 58.00% 40.00% 2.00%
Cobh Ramblers 17.00% 63.00% 20.00%
Treaty United 8.00% 56.00% 36.00%
UC Dublin 8.00% 72.00% 20.00%
Bray Wanderers 6.00% 63.00% 31.00%
Wexford 2.00% 51.00% 47.00%
Athlone Town 1.00% 9.00% 90.00%
Finn Harps — 27.00% 73.00%
Kerry — 10.00% 90.00%
Longford Town — 9.00% 91.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-02-14 Finn Harps FL44.5 1154 1216 33.10% 30.61% 36.28%-0.09 +0.0 0
2025-02-14 @ Kerry FL44.5 1216 1154 36.28% 30.61% 33.10%+0.09 +0.0 0
2025-02-14 Athlone Town W 1-039.0 1268 1241 45.60% 29.33% 25.07%+0.53 +4.4 3
2025-02-14 @ Dundalk L 0-139.0 1241 1268 25.07% 29.33% 45.60%-0.53 -4.4 0
2025-02-14 Cobh Ramblers L 2-355.9 1239 1213 45.38% 29.39% 25.23%+0.51 -6.1 0
2025-02-14 @ Treaty United W 3-255.9 1213 1239 25.23% 29.39% 45.38%-0.51 +6.1 3
2025-02-14 Wexford W 3-035.2 1261 1266 41.20% 30.18% 28.62%+0.30 +13.3 3
2025-02-14 @ UC Dublin L 0-335.2 1266 1261 28.62% 30.18% 41.20%-0.30 -13.3 0
2025-02-15 Bray Wanderers L 0-141.3 1185 1251 32.43% 30.58% 36.99%-0.13 -5.3 0
2025-02-15 @ Longford Town W 1-041.3 1251 1185 36.99% 30.58% 32.43%+0.13 +5.3 3
2025-02-21 Dundalk L 0-141.9 1216 1272 33.89% 30.63% 35.48%-0.05 -5.5 0
2025-02-21 @ Finn Harps W 1-041.9 1272 1216 35.48% 30.63% 33.89%+0.05 +5.5 6
2025-02-21 Kerry D 0-047.3 1219 1154 50.71% 27.83% 21.46%+0.79 -1.0 4
2025-02-21 @ Cobh Ramblers D 0-047.3 1154 1219 21.46% 27.83% 50.71%-0.79 +1.0 1
2025-02-21 Treaty United L 0-539.6 1236 1233 42.40% 29.99% 27.61%+0.36 -28.5 0
2025-02-21 @ Athlone Town W 5-039.6 1233 1236 27.61% 29.99% 42.40%-0.36 +28.5 3
2025-02-28 Bray Wanderers W 2-037.0 1253 1256 41.35% 30.16% 28.49%+0.31 +9.1 3
2025-02-28 @ Wexford L 0-237.0 1256 1253 28.49% 30.16% 41.35%-0.31 -9.1 3
2025-02-28 Cobh Ramblers D 1-152.0 1275 1218 49.53% 28.22% 22.24%+0.73 -0.9 4
2025-02-28 @ UC Dublin D 1-152.0 1218 1275 22.24% 28.22% 49.53%-0.73 +0.9 5
2025-02-28 Dundalk L 0-139.0 1155 1278 25.68% 29.52% 44.81%-0.51 -4.5 1
2025-02-28 @ Kerry W 1-039.0 1278 1155 44.81% 29.52% 25.68%+0.51 +4.5 9
2025-02-28 Finn Harps W 3-140.6 1261 1210 48.79% 28.46% 22.75%+0.69 +6.5 6
2025-02-28 @ Treaty United L 1-340.6 1210 1261 22.75% 28.46% 48.79%-0.69 -6.5 0
2025-03-01 Athlone Town D 1-151.1 1179 1208 37.81% 30.53% 31.65%+0.14 -0.2 1
2025-03-01 @ Longford Town D 1-151.1 1208 1179 31.65% 30.53% 37.81%-0.14 +0.2 1
2025-03-07 Athlone Town L 0-145.8 1262 1208 49.22% 28.33% 22.46%+0.71 -7.2 3
2025-03-07 @ Wexford W 1-045.8 1208 1262 22.46% 28.33% 49.22%-0.71 +7.2 4
2025-03-07 Bray Wanderers L 0-140.0 1151 1247 28.60% 30.17% 41.23%-0.33 -4.8 1
2025-03-07 @ Kerry W 1-040.0 1247 1151 41.23% 30.17% 28.60%+0.33 +4.9 6
2025-03-07 Finn Harps D 1-152.2 1274 1204 51.32% 27.61% 21.07%+0.82 -1.0 5
2025-03-07 @ UC Dublin D 1-152.2 1204 1274 21.07% 27.61% 51.32%-0.82 +1.0 1
2025-03-07 Longford Town W 5-033.5 1219 1179 47.39% 28.87% 23.74%+0.62 +18.3 8
2025-03-07 @ Cobh Ramblers L 0-533.5 1179 1219 23.74% 28.87% 47.39%-0.62 -18.4 1
2025-03-07 Treaty United D 2-257.8 1282 1268 43.87% 29.72% 26.41%+0.44 -0.4 10
2025-03-07 @ Dundalk D 2-257.8 1268 1282 26.41% 29.72% 43.87%-0.44 +0.4 7
2025-03-14 Cobh Ramblers L 1-248.5 1205 1238 37.24% 30.57% 32.19%+0.11 -5.5 1
2025-03-14 @ Finn Harps W 2-148.5 1238 1205 32.19% 30.57% 37.24%-0.11 +5.5 11
2025-03-14 Dundalk L 1-345.9 1252 1282 37.71% 30.54% 31.75%+0.13 -9.7 6
2025-03-14 @ Bray Wanderers W 3-145.9 1282 1252 31.75% 30.54% 37.71%-0.13 +9.7 13
2025-03-14 UC Dublin W 2-148.2 1215 1273 33.69% 30.63% 35.68%-0.06 +5.4 7
2025-03-14 @ Athlone Town L 1-248.2 1273 1215 35.68% 30.63% 33.69%+0.06 -5.4 5
2025-03-14 Wexford L 0-144.7 1268 1255 43.73% 29.75% 26.53%+0.43 -6.6 7
2025-03-14 @ Treaty United W 1-044.7 1255 1268 26.53% 29.75% 43.73%-0.43 +6.6 6
2025-03-15 Kerry W 3-250.1 1161 1146 43.91% 29.71% 26.38%+0.44 +4.1 4
2025-03-15 @ Longford Town L 2-350.1 1146 1161 26.38% 29.71% 43.91%-0.44 -4.1 1
2025-03-21 Athlone Town W 2-035.7 1243 1221 44.98% 29.48% 25.54%+0.49 +8.4 14
2025-03-21 @ Cobh Ramblers L 0-235.7 1221 1243 25.54% 29.48% 44.98%-0.49 -8.4 7
2025-03-21 Bray Wanderers W 5-037.1 1199 1243 35.73% 30.63% 33.64%+0.04 +24.1 4
2025-03-21 @ Finn Harps L 0-537.1 1243 1199 33.64% 30.63% 35.73%-0.04 -24.1 6
2025-03-21 Kerry L 1-252.8 1261 1142 57.61% 24.99% 17.40%+1.17 -7.7 6
2025-03-21 @ Wexford W 2-152.8 1142 1261 17.40% 24.99% 57.61%-1.17 +7.7 4
2025-03-21 Longford Town W 2-140.6 1291 1165 58.49% 24.57% 16.94%+1.22 +2.8 16
2025-03-21 @ Dundalk L 1-240.6 1165 1291 16.94% 24.57% 58.49%-1.22 -2.8 4
2025-03-21 Treaty United D 0-047.1 1267 1261 42.71% 29.94% 27.36%+0.38 -0.5 6
2025-03-21 @ UC Dublin D 0-047.1 1261 1267 27.36% 29.94% 42.71%-0.38 +0.5 8
2025-03-28 Cobh Ramblers W 2-147.1 1218 1251 37.18% 30.57% 32.24%+0.11 +5.0 9
2025-03-28 @ Bray Wanderers L 1-247.1 1251 1218 32.24% 30.57% 37.18%-0.11 -5.0 14
2025-03-28 Finn Harps L 0-143.6 1212 1223 40.30% 30.30% 29.40%+0.26 -6.2 7
2025-03-28 @ Athlone Town W 1-043.6 1223 1212 29.40% 30.30% 40.30%-0.26 +6.2 7
2025-03-28 UC Dublin L 0-139.2 1150 1267 26.21% 29.66% 44.12%-0.48 -4.5 4
2025-03-28 @ Kerry W 1-039.2 1267 1150 44.12% 29.66% 26.21%+0.48 +4.5 9
2025-03-28 Wexford W 3-033.4 1294 1254 47.43% 28.86% 23.71%+0.62 +11.4 19
2025-03-28 @ Dundalk L 0-333.4 1254 1294 23.71% 28.86% 47.43%-0.62 -11.4 6
2025-03-29 Treaty United W 2-040.7 1162 1262 28.18% 30.10% 41.72%-0.36 +12.0 7
2025-03-29 @ Longford Town L 0-240.7 1262 1162 41.72% 30.10% 28.18%+0.36 -12.0 8
2025-03-31 Bray Wanderers L 0-145.7 1271 1223 48.44% 28.57% 22.99%+0.67 -7.1 9
2025-03-31 @ UC Dublin W 1-045.7 1223 1271 22.99% 28.57% 48.44%-0.67 +7.1 12
2025-04-04 Bray Wanderers L 0-143.1 1206 1231 38.42% 30.49% 31.09%+0.17 -6.0 7
2025-04-04 @ Athlone Town W 1-043.1 1231 1206 31.09% 30.49% 38.42%-0.17 +6.0 15
2025-04-04 Dundalk L 0-142.9 1264 1305 36.02% 30.62% 33.36%+0.05 -5.7 9
2025-04-04 @ UC Dublin W 1-042.9 1305 1264 33.36% 30.62% 36.02%-0.05 +5.7 22
2025-04-04 Kerry W 3-030.5 1250 1145 55.80% 25.81% 18.38%+1.07 +8.9 11
2025-04-04 @ Treaty United L 0-330.5 1145 1250 18.38% 25.81% 55.80%-1.07 -8.9 4
2025-04-04 Longford Town D 1-151.8 1230 1174 49.46% 28.25% 22.29%+0.73 -0.9 8
2025-04-04 @ Finn Harps D 1-151.8 1174 1230 22.29% 28.25% 49.46%-0.73 +0.9 8
2025-04-04 Wexford L 1-347.0 1246 1242 42.46% 29.98% 27.56%+0.37 -10.6 14
2025-04-04 @ Cobh Ramblers W 3-147.0 1242 1246 27.56% 29.98% 42.46%-0.37 +10.6 9
2025-04-08 Longford Town W 3-139.4 1253 1175 52.38% 27.22% 20.40%+0.88 +5.9 12
2025-04-08 @ Wexford L 1-339.4 1175 1253 20.40% 27.22% 52.38%-0.88 -5.9 8
2025-04-11 Athlone Town W 3-037.3 1136 1200 32.80% 30.60% 36.60%-0.11 +15.9 7
2025-04-11 @ Kerry L 0-337.3 1200 1136 36.60% 30.60% 32.80%+0.11 -15.9 7
2025-04-11 Cobh Ramblers W 1-037.2 1311 1236 52.03% 27.35% 20.61%+0.86 +3.6 25
2025-04-11 @ Dundalk L 0-137.2 1236 1311 20.61% 27.35% 52.03%-0.86 -3.7 14
2025-04-11 Finn Harps D 2-257.7 1259 1229 46.00% 29.24% 24.77%+0.55 -0.5 13
2025-04-11 @ Wexford D 2-257.7 1229 1259 24.77% 29.24% 46.00%-0.55 +0.5 9
2025-04-11 Treaty United W 2-146.7 1237 1259 38.73% 30.46% 30.81%+0.18 +4.8 18
2025-04-11 @ Bray Wanderers L 1-246.7 1259 1237 30.81% 30.46% 38.73%-0.18 -4.8 11
2025-04-12 UC Dublin L 0-140.3 1169 1259 29.44% 30.30% 40.26%-0.29 -5.0 8
2025-04-12 @ Longford Town W 1-040.3 1259 1169 40.26% 30.30% 29.44%+0.29 +5.0 12
2025-04-18 Dundalk D 1-151.6 1254 1315 33.21% 30.62% 36.17%-0.09 +0.1 12
2025-04-18 @ Treaty United D 1-151.6 1315 1254 36.17% 30.62% 33.21%+0.09 -0.1 26
2025-04-18 Kerry W 4-243.4 1229 1152 52.29% 27.26% 20.46%+0.88 +5.3 12
2025-04-18 @ Finn Harps L 2-443.4 1152 1229 20.46% 27.26% 52.29%-0.88 -5.3 7
2025-04-18 Longford Town W 4-031.3 1241 1164 52.31% 27.25% 20.44%+0.88 +12.9 21
2025-04-18 @ Bray Wanderers L 0-431.3 1164 1241 20.44% 27.25% 52.31%-0.88 -13.0 8
2025-04-18 UC Dublin W 1-041.4 1232 1263 37.45% 30.56% 31.99%+0.12 +5.3 17
2025-04-18 @ Cobh Ramblers L 0-141.4 1263 1232 31.99% 30.56% 37.45%-0.12 -5.3 12
2025-04-18 Wexford D 1-151.2 1184 1258 31.44% 30.52% 38.05%-0.18 +0.2 8
2025-04-18 @ Athlone Town D 1-151.2 1258 1184 38.05% 30.52% 31.44%+0.18 -0.2 14
2025-04-21 Cobh Ramblers L 0-236.9 1147 1238 29.30% 30.28% 40.42%-0.29 -9.3 7
2025-04-21 @ Kerry W 2-036.9 1238 1147 40.42% 30.28% 29.30%+0.29 +9.3 20
2025-04-21 Finn Harps D 1-152.6 1315 1235 52.66% 27.11% 20.22%+0.90 -1.0 27
2025-04-21 @ Dundalk D 1-152.6 1235 1315 20.22% 27.11% 52.66%-0.90 +1.0 13
2025-04-21 Longford Town D 1-151.5 1184 1151 46.47% 29.12% 24.41%+0.57 -0.7 9
2025-04-21 @ Athlone Town D 1-151.5 1151 1184 24.41% 29.12% 46.47%-0.57 +0.7 9
2025-04-21 Treaty United W 2-036.6 1258 1254 42.43% 29.98% 27.59%+0.37 +8.9 17
2025-04-21 @ Wexford L 0-236.6 1254 1258 27.59% 29.98% 42.43%-0.37 -8.9 12
2025-04-21 UC Dublin W 2-037.0 1254 1258 41.33% 30.16% 28.51%+0.31 +9.1 24
2025-04-21 @ Bray Wanderers L 0-237.0 1258 1254 28.51% 30.16% 41.33%-0.31 -9.1 12
2025-04-25 Athlone Town W 1-037.4 1245 1184 50.22% 28.00% 21.78%+0.77 +3.8 15
2025-04-25 @ Treaty United L 0-137.4 1184 1245 21.78% 28.00% 50.22%-0.77 -3.9 9
2025-04-25 Finn Harps W 3-142.2 1247 1236 43.44% 29.80% 26.76%+0.42 +7.5 23
2025-04-25 @ Cobh Ramblers L 1-342.2 1236 1247 26.76% 29.80% 43.44%-0.42 -7.5 13
2025-04-25 Kerry W 4-241.6 1263 1137 58.43% 24.60% 16.97%+1.21 +4.3 27
2025-04-25 @ Bray Wanderers L 2-441.6 1137 1263 16.97% 24.60% 58.43%-1.21 -4.3 7
2025-04-25 UC Dublin L 0-144.9 1267 1249 44.35% 29.62% 26.04%+0.46 -6.7 17
2025-04-25 @ Wexford W 1-044.9 1249 1267 26.04% 29.62% 44.35%-0.46 +6.7 15
2025-04-26 Dundalk L 0-332.3 1152 1314 21.82% 28.02% 50.16%-0.79 -10.6 9
2025-04-26 @ Longford Town W 3-032.3 1314 1152 50.16% 28.02% 21.82%+0.79 +10.6 30
2025-05-02 Bray Wanderers W 2-146.4 1254 1268 39.98% 30.33% 29.68%+0.24 +4.7 26
2025-05-02 @ Cobh Ramblers L 1-246.4 1268 1254 29.68% 30.33% 39.98%-0.24 -4.7 27
2025-05-02 Dundalk D 0-047.4 1180 1324 23.43% 28.75% 47.82%-0.67 +0.9 10
2025-05-02 @ Athlone Town D 0-047.4 1324 1180 47.82% 28.75% 23.43%+0.67 -0.8 31
2025-05-02 Kerry L 0-147.2 1256 1133 58.01% 24.80% 17.19%+1.19 -8.2 15
2025-05-02 @ UC Dublin W 1-047.2 1133 1256 17.19% 24.80% 58.01%-1.19 +8.2 10
2025-05-02 Treaty United L 0-240.1 1228 1249 38.93% 30.44% 30.63%+0.19 -11.4 13
2025-05-02 @ Finn Harps W 2-040.1 1249 1228 30.63% 30.44% 38.93%-0.19 +11.4 18
2025-05-03 Wexford W 2-150.3 1141 1260 26.02% 29.61% 44.37%-0.49 +6.3 12
2025-05-03 @ Longford Town L 1-250.3 1260 1141 44.37% 29.61% 26.02%+0.49 -6.3 17
2025-05-09 Athlone Town L 0-241.8 1217 1181 46.83% 29.02% 24.15%+0.59 -13.1 13
2025-05-09 @ Finn Harps W 2-041.8 1181 1217 24.15% 29.02% 46.83%-0.59 +13.1 13
2025-05-09 Bray Wanderers D 2-258.5 1323 1263 50.08% 28.05% 21.88%+0.76 -0.7 32
2025-05-09 @ Dundalk D 2-258.5 1263 1323 21.88% 28.05% 50.08%-0.76 +0.7 28
2025-05-09 Cobh Ramblers L 0-240.8 1254 1259 41.15% 30.18% 28.67%+0.30 -11.9 17
2025-05-09 @ Wexford W 2-040.8 1259 1254 28.67% 30.18% 41.15%-0.30 +11.9 29
2025-05-09 Longford Town D 1-152.5 1248 1147 55.21% 26.07% 18.72%+1.03 -1.2 16
2025-05-09 @ UC Dublin D 1-152.5 1147 1248 18.72% 26.07% 55.21%-1.03 +1.2 13
2025-05-09 Treaty United W 1-044.6 1141 1260 26.01% 29.61% 44.38%-0.49 +6.7 13
2025-05-09 @ Kerry L 0-144.6 1260 1141 44.38% 29.61% 26.01%+0.49 -6.7 18
2025-05-16 Athlone Town W 3-139.8 1264 1194 51.34% 27.61% 21.05%+0.82 +6.1 31
2025-05-16 @ Bray Wanderers L 1-339.8 1194 1264 21.05% 27.61% 51.34%-0.82 -6.1 13
2025-05-16 Dundalk L 1-248.3 1271 1323 34.50% 30.64% 34.86%-0.02 -5.2 29
2025-05-16 @ Cobh Ramblers W 2-148.3 1323 1271 34.86% 30.64% 34.50%+0.02 +5.3 35
2025-05-16 UC Dublin W 4-034.4 1254 1246 42.89% 29.90% 27.20%+0.39 +16.7 21
2025-05-16 @ Treaty United L 0-434.4 1246 1254 27.20% 29.90% 42.89%-0.39 -16.7 16
2025-05-16 Wexford D 1-151.2 1148 1242 28.89% 30.22% 40.89%-0.32 +0.4 14
2025-05-16 @ Kerry D 1-151.2 1242 1148 40.89% 30.22% 28.89%+0.32 -0.4 18
2025-05-17 Finn Harps D 0-046.5 1149 1204 34.05% 30.64% 35.31%-0.04 +0.0 14
2025-05-17 @ Longford Town D 0-046.5 1204 1149 35.31% 30.64% 34.05%+0.04 -0.0 14
2025-05-23 Cobh Ramblers L 2-351.9 1188 1266 30.91% 30.47% 38.62%-0.21 -4.6 13
2025-05-23 @ Athlone Town W 3-251.9 1266 1188 38.62% 30.47% 30.91%+0.21 +4.6 32
2025-05-23 Kerry W 2-029.8 1328 1148 64.79% 21.28% 13.93%+1.59 +4.4 38
2025-05-23 @ Dundalk L 0-229.8 1148 1328 13.93% 21.28% 64.79%-1.59 -4.4 14
2025-05-23 Longford Town W 5-133.7 1270 1149 57.90% 24.85% 17.25%+1.19 +9.0 24
2025-05-23 @ Treaty United L 1-533.7 1149 1270 17.25% 24.85% 57.90%-1.19 -9.0 14
2025-05-23 UC Dublin L 1-248.7 1204 1230 38.17% 30.51% 31.32%+0.16 -5.6 14
2025-05-23 @ Finn Harps W 2-148.7 1230 1204 31.32% 30.51% 38.17%-0.16 +5.6 19
2025-05-23 Wexford L 1-250.9 1270 1242 45.77% 29.29% 24.94%+0.53 -6.4 31
2025-05-23 @ Bray Wanderers W 2-150.9 1242 1270 24.94% 29.29% 45.77%-0.53 +6.4 21
2025-05-30 Athlone Town W 2-034.4 1235 1183 49.00% 28.39% 22.60%+0.70 +7.5 22
2025-05-30 @ UC Dublin L 0-234.4 1183 1235 22.60% 28.39% 49.00%-0.70 -7.5 13
2025-05-30 Dundalk L 2-352.1 1248 1332 30.10% 30.39% 39.52%-0.25 -4.5 21
2025-05-30 @ Wexford W 3-252.1 1332 1248 39.52% 30.39% 30.10%+0.25 +4.5 41
2025-05-30 Finn Harps W 3-140.0 1263 1198 50.76% 27.81% 21.43%+0.79 +6.2 34
2025-05-30 @ Bray Wanderers L 1-340.0 1198 1263 21.43% 27.81% 50.76%-0.79 -6.2 14
2025-05-30 Longford Town W 2-036.2 1144 1140 42.46% 29.98% 27.56%+0.37 +8.9 17
2025-05-30 @ Kerry L 0-236.2 1140 1144 27.56% 29.98% 42.46%-0.37 -8.9 14
2025-05-30 Treaty United W 2-146.3 1270 1279 40.60% 30.26% 29.15%+0.27 +4.6 35
2025-05-30 @ Cobh Ramblers L 1-246.3 1279 1270 29.15% 30.26% 40.60%-0.27 -4.7 24
2025-06-13 Bray Wanderers W 2-145.7 1275 1270 42.60% 29.96% 27.45%+0.37 +4.4 27
2025-06-13 @ Treaty United L 1-245.7 1270 1275 27.45% 29.96% 42.60%-0.37 -4.4 34
2025-06-13 Kerry D 2-257.4 1176 1153 45.03% 29.47% 25.50%+0.50 -0.4 14
2025-06-13 @ Athlone Town D 2-257.4 1153 1176 25.50% 29.47% 45.03%-0.50 +0.5 18
2025-06-13 UC Dublin D 1-153.0 1337 1243 54.45% 26.40% 19.16%+0.99 -1.1 42
2025-06-13 @ Dundalk D 1-153.0 1243 1337 19.16% 26.40% 54.45%-0.99 +1.1 23
2025-06-13 Wexford D 1-151.2 1192 1244 34.48% 30.64% 34.88%-0.02 +0.0 15
2025-06-13 @ Finn Harps D 1-151.2 1244 1192 34.88% 30.64% 34.48%+0.02 -0.0 22
2025-06-14 Cobh Ramblers D 1-151.7 1131 1275 23.45% 28.76% 47.80%-0.67 +0.8 15
2025-06-14 @ Longford Town D 1-151.7 1275 1131 47.80% 28.76% 23.45%+0.67 -0.8 36
2025-06-20 Bray Wanderers W 2-150.1 1153 1265 26.80% 29.81% 43.38%-0.44 +6.2 21
2025-06-20 @ Kerry L 1-250.1 1265 1153 43.38% 29.81% 26.80%+0.44 -6.2 34
2025-06-20 Cobh Ramblers L 0-338.0 1244 1274 37.59% 30.55% 31.86%+0.13 -16.2 23
2025-06-20 @ UC Dublin W 3-038.0 1274 1244 31.86% 30.55% 37.59%-0.13 +16.2 39
2025-06-20 Finn Harps D 0-046.6 1175 1192 39.54% 30.38% 30.08%+0.22 -0.3 15
2025-06-20 @ Athlone Town D 0-046.6 1192 1175 30.08% 30.38% 39.54%-0.22 +0.3 16
2025-06-20 Longford Town L 0-147.0 1244 1132 56.70% 25.41% 17.89%+1.12 -8.0 22
2025-06-20 @ Wexford W 1-047.0 1132 1244 17.89% 25.41% 56.70%-1.12 +8.0 18
2025-06-20 Treaty United D 1-152.7 1336 1279 49.58% 28.21% 22.21%+0.73 -0.9 43
2025-06-20 @ Dundalk D 1-152.7 1279 1336 22.21% 28.21% 49.58%-0.73 +0.9 28
2025-06-23 Athlone Town W 3-252.2 1140 1175 36.87% 30.59% 32.54%+0.09 +4.8 21
2025-06-23 @ Longford Town L 2-352.2 1175 1140 32.54% 30.59% 36.87%-0.09 -4.8 15
2025-06-23 Dundalk W 1-045.6 1192 1335 23.57% 28.81% 47.62%-0.66 +7.0 19
2025-06-23 @ Finn Harps L 0-145.6 1335 1192 47.62% 28.81% 23.57%+0.66 -7.0 43
2025-06-23 Kerry W 1-034.8 1290 1159 59.04% 24.30% 16.66%+1.25 +2.9 42
2025-06-23 @ Cobh Ramblers L 0-134.8 1159 1290 16.66% 24.30% 59.04%-1.25 -2.9 21
2025-06-23 UC Dublin L 1-347.9 1259 1228 46.17% 29.19% 24.63%+0.55 -11.2 34
2025-06-23 @ Bray Wanderers W 3-147.9 1228 1259 24.63% 29.19% 46.17%-0.55 +11.2 26
2025-06-23 Wexford D 0-047.4 1280 1236 47.98% 28.70% 23.32%+0.65 -0.9 29
2025-06-23 @ Treaty United D 0-047.4 1236 1280 23.32% 28.70% 47.98%-0.65 +0.9 23
2025-06-27 Bray Wanderers L 0-435.5 1170 1248 30.96% 30.48% 38.57%-0.20 -18.4 15
2025-06-27 @ Athlone Town W 4-035.5 1248 1170 38.57% 30.48% 30.96%+0.20 +18.5 37
2025-06-27 Cobh Ramblers W 1-039.3 1328 1293 46.63% 29.08% 24.29%+0.58 +4.2 46
2025-06-27 @ Dundalk L 0-139.3 1293 1328 24.29% 29.08% 46.63%-0.58 -4.2 42
2025-06-27 Finn Harps L 0-146.5 1279 1199 52.66% 27.11% 20.22%+0.90 -7.6 29
2025-06-27 @ Treaty United W 1-046.5 1199 1279 20.22% 27.11% 52.66%-0.90 +7.6 22
2025-06-27 Kerry W 4-350.3 1236 1157 52.63% 27.13% 20.24%+0.89 +3.1 26
2025-06-27 @ Wexford L 3-450.3 1157 1236 20.24% 27.13% 52.63%-0.89 -3.1 21
2025-06-28 UC Dublin L 0-236.8 1144 1239 28.82% 30.21% 40.98%-0.32 -9.2 21
2025-06-28 @ Longford Town W 2-036.8 1239 1144 40.98% 30.21% 28.82%+0.32 +9.2 29
2025-07-04 Athlone Town W 2-140.2 1289 1152 59.82% 23.91% 16.26%+1.29 +2.7 45
2025-07-04 @ Cobh Ramblers L 1-240.2 1152 1289 16.26% 23.91% 59.82%-1.29 -2.7 15
2025-07-04 Dundalk L 0-431.5 1153 1332 20.42% 27.23% 52.35%-0.91 -12.9 21
2025-07-04 @ Kerry W 4-031.5 1332 1153 52.35% 27.23% 20.42%+0.91 +12.9 49
2025-07-04 Longford Town D 0-047.4 1207 1135 51.55% 27.53% 20.92%+0.84 -1.1 23
2025-07-04 @ Finn Harps D 0-047.4 1135 1207 20.92% 27.53% 51.55%-0.84 +1.1 22
2025-07-04 Treaty United D 1-151.5 1248 1272 38.57% 30.48% 30.96%+0.18 -0.2 30
2025-07-04 @ UC Dublin D 1-151.5 1272 1248 30.96% 30.48% 38.57%-0.18 +0.2 30
2025-07-04 Wexford W 1-039.0 1266 1240 45.55% 29.35% 25.10%+0.52 +4.4 40
2025-07-04 @ Bray Wanderers L 0-139.0 1240 1266 25.10% 29.35% 45.55%-0.52 -4.4 26
2025-07-11 Athlone Town D 0-047.7 1235 1149 53.44% 26.81% 19.75%+0.94 -1.2 27
2025-07-11 @ Wexford D 0-047.7 1149 1235 19.75% 26.81% 53.44%-0.94 +1.2 16
2025-07-11 Cobh Ramblers W 2-146.9 1272 1292 39.06% 30.43% 30.51%+0.20 +4.8 33
2025-07-11 @ Treaty United L 1-246.9 1292 1272 30.51% 30.43% 39.06%-0.20 -4.8 45
2025-07-11 Dundalk W 2-040.5 1271 1345 31.36% 30.51% 38.13%-0.18 +11.3 43
2025-07-11 @ Bray Wanderers L 0-240.5 1345 1271 38.13% 30.51% 31.36%+0.18 -11.3 49
2025-07-11 Finn Harps W 3-140.9 1248 1206 47.69% 28.78% 23.52%+0.63 +6.8 33
2025-07-11 @ UC Dublin L 1-340.9 1206 1248 23.52% 28.78% 47.69%-0.63 -6.8 23
2025-07-12 Kerry W 3-142.6 1136 1140 41.28% 30.17% 28.56%+0.31 +7.9 25
2025-07-12 @ Longford Town L 1-342.6 1140 1136 28.56% 30.17% 41.28%-0.31 -7.9 21
2025-07-25 Cobh Ramblers D 2-257.4 1199 1287 29.62% 30.33% 40.05%-0.28 +0.2 24
2025-07-25 @ Finn Harps D 2-257.4 1287 1199 40.05% 30.33% 29.62%+0.28 -0.2 46
2025-07-25 Treaty United D 2-257.5 1150 1277 25.23% 29.38% 45.39%-0.54 +0.5 17
2025-07-25 @ Athlone Town D 2-257.5 1277 1150 45.39% 29.38% 25.23%+0.54 -0.5 34
2025-07-25 UC Dublin L 0-333.8 1133 1255 25.68% 29.52% 44.80%-0.51 -12.2 21
2025-07-25 @ Kerry W 3-033.8 1255 1133 44.80% 29.52% 25.68%+0.51 +12.2 36
2025-07-25 Wexford W 3-247.4 1334 1234 55.18% 26.09% 18.74%+1.03 +3.0 52
2025-07-25 @ Dundalk L 2-347.4 1234 1334 18.74% 26.09% 55.18%-1.03 -3.0 27
2025-07-26 Bray Wanderers L 1-244.0 1144 1282 24.09% 29.00% 46.91%-0.62 -4.0 25
2025-07-26 @ Longford Town W 2-144.0 1282 1144 46.91% 29.00% 24.09%+0.62 +4.0 46
2025-08-01 Athlone Town W 4-035.6 1120 1151 37.58% 30.55% 31.87%+0.13 +18.8 24
2025-08-01 @ Kerry L 0-435.6 1151 1120 31.87% 30.55% 37.58%-0.13 -18.8 17
2025-08-01 Dundalk L 0-141.9 1267 1337 31.99% 30.56% 37.45%-0.15 -5.3 36
2025-08-01 @ UC Dublin W 1-041.9 1337 1267 37.45% 30.56% 31.99%+0.15 +5.3 55
2025-08-01 Finn Harps W 2-144.2 1231 1199 46.28% 29.17% 24.56%+0.56 +4.0 30
2025-08-01 @ Wexford L 1-244.2 1199 1231 24.56% 29.17% 46.28%-0.56 -4.0 24
2025-08-01 Longford Town W 3-136.9 1287 1140 60.92% 23.36% 15.73%+1.36 +4.4 49
2025-08-01 @ Cobh Ramblers L 1-336.9 1140 1287 15.73% 23.36% 60.92%-1.36 -4.4 25
2025-08-01 Treaty United W 3-250.9 1286 1276 43.21% 29.85% 26.95%+0.40 +4.2 49
2025-08-01 @ Bray Wanderers L 2-350.9 1276 1286 26.95% 29.85% 43.21%-0.40 -4.1 34
2025-08-04 Bray Wanderers D 2-257.4 1195 1290 28.79% 30.20% 41.01%-0.32 +0.3 25
2025-08-04 @ Finn Harps D 2-257.4 1290 1195 41.01% 30.20% 28.79%+0.32 -0.3 50
2025-08-04 Kerry D 1-153.1 1272 1139 59.27% 24.19% 16.54%+1.26 -1.4 35
2025-08-04 @ Treaty United D 1-153.1 1139 1272 16.54% 24.19% 59.27%-1.26 +1.4 25
2025-08-04 Longford Town W 4-132.4 1342 1136 67.78% 19.58% 12.64%+1.77 +4.8 58
2025-08-04 @ Dundalk L 1-432.4 1136 1342 12.64% 19.58% 67.78%-1.77 -4.8 25
2025-08-04 UC Dublin L 1-244.3 1132 1262 24.88% 29.27% 45.85%-0.57 -4.1 17
2025-08-04 @ Athlone Town W 2-144.3 1262 1132 45.85% 29.27% 24.88%+0.57 +4.1 39
2025-08-04 Wexford W 4-032.5 1291 1235 49.52% 28.23% 22.25%+0.73 +14.0 52
2025-08-04 @ Cobh Ramblers L 0-432.5 1235 1291 22.25% 28.23% 49.52%-0.73 -14.0 30
2025-08-08 Athlone Town W 6-129.8 1347 1128 69.17% 18.77% 12.06%+1.86 +7.1 61
2025-08-08 @ Dundalk L 1-629.8 1128 1347 12.06% 18.77% 69.17%-1.86 -7.1 17
2025-08-08 Cobh Ramblers L 0-240.8 1290 1305 39.68% 30.37% 29.95%+0.23 -11.6 50
2025-08-08 @ Bray Wanderers W 2-040.8 1305 1290 29.95% 30.37% 39.68%-0.23 +11.6 55
2025-08-08 Finn Harps L 0-141.7 1141 1195 34.08% 30.64% 35.28%-0.04 -5.5 25
2025-08-08 @ Kerry W 1-041.7 1195 1141 35.28% 30.64% 34.08%+0.04 +5.5 28
2025-08-08 Wexford W 1-038.2 1266 1221 48.01% 28.69% 23.30%+0.65 +4.1 42
2025-08-08 @ UC Dublin L 0-138.2 1221 1266 23.30% 28.69% 48.01%-0.65 -4.1 30
2025-08-09 Treaty United W 2-041.9 1131 1271 23.89% 28.93% 47.19%-0.63 +13.2 28
2025-08-09 @ Longford Town L 0-241.9 1271 1131 47.19% 28.93% 23.89%+0.63 -13.2 35
2025-08-22 Athlone Town W 2-142.2 1201 1121 52.67% 27.11% 20.22%+0.90 +3.4 31
2025-08-22 @ Finn Harps L 1-242.2 1121 1201 20.22% 27.11% 52.67%-0.90 -3.4 17
2025-08-22 Bray Wanderers L 0-141.7 1217 1278 33.18% 30.62% 36.21%-0.09 -5.4 30
2025-08-22 @ Wexford W 1-041.7 1278 1217 36.21% 30.62% 33.18%+0.09 +5.4 53
2025-08-22 Dundalk L 0-737.6 1257 1354 28.59% 30.17% 41.23%-0.33 -29.4 35
2025-08-22 @ Treaty United W 7-037.6 1354 1257 41.23% 30.17% 28.59%+0.33 +29.4 64
2025-08-22 Longford Town W 1-040.1 1135 1144 40.60% 30.26% 29.14%+0.27 +4.9 28
2025-08-22 @ Kerry L 0-140.1 1144 1135 29.14% 30.26% 40.60%-0.27 -4.9 28
2025-08-22 UC Dublin D 2-258.4 1317 1270 48.30% 28.61% 23.09%+0.66 -0.6 56
2025-08-22 @ Cobh Ramblers D 2-258.4 1270 1317 23.09% 28.61% 48.30%-0.66 +0.6 43
2025-08-29 Bray Wanderers W 3-251.8 1270 1283 40.04% 30.33% 29.64%+0.25 +4.5 46
2025-08-29 @ UC Dublin L 2-351.8 1283 1270 29.64% 30.33% 40.04%-0.25 -4.5 53
2025-08-29 Cobh Ramblers L 0-330.8 1117 1316 18.87% 26.19% 54.94%-1.05 -9.1 17
2025-08-29 @ Athlone Town W 3-030.8 1316 1117 54.94% 26.19% 18.87%+1.05 +9.1 59
2025-08-29 Kerry D 3-365.5 1383 1140 71.73% 17.25% 11.01%+2.03 -1.2 65
2025-08-29 @ Dundalk D 3-365.5 1140 1383 11.01% 17.25% 71.73%-2.03 +1.2 29
2025-08-29 Treaty United W 1-040.9 1204 1228 38.50% 30.48% 31.02%+0.17 +5.2 34
2025-08-29 @ Finn Harps L 0-140.9 1228 1204 31.02% 30.48% 38.50%-0.17 -5.2 35
2025-08-30 Wexford D 2-257.1 1139 1211 31.66% 30.53% 37.80%-0.17 +0.1 29
2025-08-30 @ Longford Town D 2-257.1 1211 1139 37.80% 30.53% 31.66%+0.17 -0.1 31
2025-09-05 Athlone Town W 3-135.9 1279 1108 63.78% 21.83% 14.38%+1.53 +4.0 56
2025-09-05 @ Bray Wanderers L 1-335.9 1108 1279 14.38% 21.83% 63.78%-1.53 -4.0 17
2025-09-05 Cobh Ramblers D 1-152.3 1141 1325 19.99% 26.97% 53.04%-0.94 +1.1 30
2025-09-05 @ Kerry D 1-152.3 1325 1141 53.04% 26.97% 19.99%+0.94 -1.1 60
2025-09-05 Dundalk D 0-048.1 1211 1382 21.07% 27.62% 51.32%-0.85 +1.1 32
2025-09-05 @ Wexford D 0-048.1 1382 1211 51.32% 27.62% 21.07%+0.85 -1.1 66
2025-09-05 Finn Harps D 1-151.1 1139 1209 31.97% 30.56% 37.48%-0.15 +0.2 30
2025-09-05 @ Longford Town D 1-151.1 1209 1139 37.48% 30.56% 31.97%+0.15 -0.2 35
2025-09-05 UC Dublin W 1-042.3 1223 1275 34.47% 30.64% 34.89%-0.02 +5.6 38
2025-09-05 @ Treaty United L 0-142.3 1275 1223 34.89% 30.64% 34.47%+0.02 -5.6 46
2025-09-12 Bray Wanderers W 3-139.9 1381 1283 54.96% 26.18% 18.86%+1.02 +5.4 69
2025-09-12 @ Dundalk L 1-339.9 1283 1381 18.86% 26.18% 54.96%-1.02 -5.5 56
2025-09-12 Longford Town W 2-140.4 1269 1139 58.89% 24.38% 16.73%+1.24 +2.8 49
2025-09-12 @ UC Dublin L 1-240.4 1139 1269 16.73% 24.38% 58.89%-1.24 -2.8 30
2025-09-12 Treaty United W 3-031.3 1324 1228 54.66% 26.30% 19.03%+1.00 +9.2 63
2025-09-12 @ Cobh Ramblers L 0-331.3 1228 1324 19.03% 26.30% 54.66%-1.00 -9.2 38
2025-09-19 Athlone Town W 3-246.2 1219 1104 57.10% 25.23% 17.68%+1.14 +2.8 41
2025-09-19 @ Treaty United L 2-346.2 1104 1219 17.68% 25.23% 57.10%-1.14 -2.8 17
2025-09-19 Cobh Ramblers W 3-256.1 1212 1334 25.80% 29.55% 44.65%-0.50 +6.0 35
2025-09-19 @ Wexford L 2-356.1 1334 1212 44.65% 29.55% 25.80%+0.50 -6.0 63
2025-09-19 Finn Harps W 3-248.2 1278 1209 51.13% 27.68% 21.19%+0.81 +3.4 59
2025-09-19 @ Bray Wanderers L 2-348.2 1209 1278 21.19% 27.68% 51.13%-0.81 -3.4 35
2025-09-19 Kerry W 2-140.4 1272 1142 58.89% 24.38% 16.74%+1.24 +2.8 52
2025-09-19 @ UC Dublin L 1-240.4 1142 1272 16.74% 24.38% 58.89%-1.24 -2.8 30
2025-09-20 Dundalk W 3-259.0 1137 1387 15.60% 23.22% 61.18%-1.40 +7.6 33
2025-09-20 @ Longford Town L 2-359.0 1387 1137 61.18% 23.22% 15.60%+1.40 -7.6 69
2025-09-22 Kerry D 0-046.4 1101 1140 36.45% 30.61% 32.94%+0.07 -0.1 18
2025-09-22 @ Athlone Town D 0-046.4 1140 1101 32.94% 30.61% 36.45%-0.07 +0.1 31
2025-09-22 Wexford L 1-346.3 1206 1218 40.10% 30.32% 29.58%+0.25 -10.1 35
2025-09-22 @ Finn Harps W 3-146.3 1218 1206 29.58% 30.32% 40.10%-0.25 +10.1 38
2025-09-26 Finn Harps W 4-135.1 1328 1196 59.13% 24.26% 16.61%+1.26 +6.7 66
2025-09-26 @ Cobh Ramblers L 1-435.1 1196 1328 16.61% 24.26% 59.13%-1.26 -6.7 35
2025-09-26 Longford Town L 0-244.2 1281 1144 59.71% 23.97% 16.32%+1.29 -15.7 59
2025-09-26 @ Bray Wanderers W 2-044.2 1144 1281 16.32% 23.97% 59.71%-1.29 +15.7 36
2025-09-26 Treaty United D 1-151.1 1140 1222 30.34% 30.41% 39.24%-0.24 +0.3 32
2025-09-26 @ Kerry D 1-151.1 1222 1140 39.24% 30.41% 30.34%+0.24 -0.3 42
2025-09-26 UC Dublin W 3-247.8 1379 1275 55.72% 25.85% 18.43%+1.06 +2.9 72
2025-09-26 @ Dundalk L 2-347.8 1275 1379 18.43% 25.85% 55.72%-1.06 -2.9 52
2025-09-26 Wexford L 1-244.3 1101 1229 25.13% 29.36% 45.51%-0.55 -4.1 18
2025-09-26 @ Athlone Town W 2-144.3 1229 1101 45.51% 29.36% 25.13%+0.55 +4.1 41
2025-10-03 Bray Wanderers W 3-140.4 1334 1265 51.22% 27.65% 21.13%+0.82 +6.1 69
2025-10-03 @ Cobh Ramblers L 1-340.4 1265 1334 21.13% 27.65% 51.22%-0.82 -6.1 59
2025-10-03 Dundalk D 1-154.2 1097 1382 13.73% 21.02% 65.25%-1.64 +1.7 19
2025-10-03 @ Athlone Town D 1-154.2 1382 1097 65.25% 21.02% 13.73%+1.64 -1.7 73
2025-10-05 Longford Town L 1-251.5 1222 1160 50.26% 27.98% 21.75%+0.77 -6.9 42
2025-10-05 @ Treaty United W 2-151.5 1160 1222 21.75% 27.98% 50.26%-0.77 +6.9 39
2025-10-05 UC Dublin L 0-337.6 1233 1272 36.31% 30.61% 33.08%+0.07 -15.8 41
2025-10-05 @ Wexford W 3-037.6 1272 1233 33.08% 30.61% 36.31%-0.07 +15.8 55
2025-10-10 Athlone Town D 2-260.1 1288 1099 65.84% 20.69% 13.47%+1.65 -1.3 56
2025-10-10 @ UC Dublin D 2-260.1 1099 1288 13.47% 20.69% 65.84%-1.65 +1.3 20
2025-10-10 Bray Wanderers W 2-147.5 1215 1259 35.59% 30.63% 33.78%+0.03 +5.2 45
2025-10-10 @ Treaty United L 1-247.5 1259 1215 33.78% 30.63% 35.59%-0.03 -5.2 59
2025-10-10 Cobh Ramblers W 3-149.1 1167 1340 20.86% 27.50% 51.64%-0.87 +12.2 42
2025-10-10 @ Longford Town L 1-349.1 1340 1167 51.64% 27.50% 20.86%+0.87 -12.2 69
2025-10-10 Finn Harps W 3-027.9 1380 1189 66.09% 20.55% 13.36%+1.67 +6.1 76
2025-10-10 @ Dundalk L 0-327.9 1189 1380 13.36% 20.55% 66.09%-1.67 -6.1 35
2025-10-10 Wexford L 0-237.5 1140 1217 31.05% 30.48% 38.47%-0.20 -9.7 32
2025-10-10 @ Kerry W 2-037.5 1217 1140 38.47% 30.48% 31.05%+0.20 +9.7 44
2025-10-13 Kerry D 1-151.7 1183 1130 49.08% 28.37% 22.55%+0.71 -0.8 36
2025-10-13 @ Finn Harps D 1-151.7 1130 1183 22.55% 28.37% 49.08%-0.71 +0.8 33
2025-10-17 Dundalk L 1-249.2 1328 1386 33.59% 30.63% 35.78%-0.07 -5.2 69
2025-10-17 @ Cobh Ramblers W 2-149.2 1386 1328 35.78% 30.63% 33.59%+0.07 +5.2 79
2025-10-17 Kerry W 5-133.6 1254 1131 58.05% 24.78% 17.17%+1.19 +9.0 62
2025-10-17 @ Bray Wanderers L 1-533.6 1131 1254 17.17% 24.78% 58.05%-1.19 -9.0 33
2025-10-17 Longford Town L 1-246.3 1100 1179 30.76% 30.46% 38.78%-0.21 -4.8 20
2025-10-17 @ Athlone Town W 2-146.3 1179 1100 38.78% 30.46% 30.76%+0.21 +4.8 45
2025-10-17 Treaty United L 0-241.0 1227 1220 42.78% 29.92% 27.29%+0.38 -12.3 44
2025-10-17 @ Wexford W 2-041.0 1220 1227 27.29% 29.92% 42.78%-0.38 +12.3 48
2025-10-17 UC Dublin L 3-453.5 1182 1286 27.67% 30.00% 42.33%-0.39 -4.1 36
2025-10-17 @ Finn Harps W 4-353.5 1286 1182 42.33% 30.00% 27.67%+0.39 +4.1 59

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2025-09-20 15.60% @ Longford Town 1137 3 Dundalk 1387 2
2 2025-09-26 16.32% Longford Town 1144 2 @ Bray Wanderers 1281 0
3 2025-05-02 17.19% Kerry 1133 1 @ UC Dublin 1256 0
4 2025-03-21 17.40% Kerry 1142 2 @ Wexford 1261 1
5 2025-06-20 17.89% Longford Town 1132 1 @ Wexford 1244 0
6 2025-06-27 20.22% Finn Harps 1199 1 @ Treaty United 1279 0
7 2025-10-10 20.86% @ Longford Town 1167 3 Cobh Ramblers 1340 1
8 2025-10-05 21.75% Longford Town 1160 2 @ Treaty United 1222 1
9 2025-03-07 22.46% Athlone Town 1208 1 @ Wexford 1262 0
10 2025-03-31 22.99% Bray Wanderers 1223 1 @ UC Dublin 1271 0
11 2025-06-23 23.57% @ Finn Harps 1192 1 Dundalk 1335 0
12 2025-08-09 23.89% @ Longford Town 1131 2 Treaty United 1271 0
13 2025-05-09 24.15% Athlone Town 1181 2 @ Finn Harps 1217 0
14 2025-06-23 24.63% UC Dublin 1228 3 @ Bray Wanderers 1259 1
15 2025-05-23 24.94% Wexford 1242 2 @ Bray Wanderers 1270 1
16 2025-02-14 25.23% Cobh Ramblers 1213 3 @ Treaty United 1239 2
17 2025-09-19 25.80% @ Wexford 1212 3 Cobh Ramblers 1334 2
18 2025-05-09 26.01% @ Kerry 1141 1 Treaty United 1260 0
19 2025-05-03 26.02% @ Longford Town 1141 2 Wexford 1260 1
20 2025-04-25 26.04% UC Dublin 1249 1 @ Wexford 1267 0
21 2025-03-14 26.53% Wexford 1255 1 @ Treaty United 1268 0
22 2025-06-20 26.80% @ Kerry 1153 2 Bray Wanderers 1265 1
23 2025-10-17 27.29% Treaty United 1220 2 @ Wexford 1227 0
24 2025-04-04 27.56% Wexford 1242 3 @ Cobh Ramblers 1246 1
25 2025-02-21 27.61% Treaty United 1233 5 @ Athlone Town 1236 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-08-22 29.43 Dundalk 7 1354 41.23% @ Treaty United 0 1257 28.59% 30.17%
2 2025-02-21 28.48 Treaty United 5 1233 27.61% @ Athlone Town 0 1236 42.40% 29.99%
3 2025-03-21 24.14 @ Finn Harps 5 1199 35.73% Bray Wanderers 0 1243 33.64% 30.63%
4 2025-08-01 18.84 @ Kerry 4 1120 37.58% Athlone Town 0 1151 31.87% 30.55%
5 2025-06-27 18.45 Bray Wanderers 4 1248 38.57% @ Athlone Town 0 1170 30.96% 30.48%
6 2025-03-07 18.36 @ Cobh Ramblers 5 1219 47.39% Longford Town 0 1179 23.74% 28.87%
7 2025-05-16 16.70 @ Treaty United 4 1254 42.89% UC Dublin 0 1246 27.20% 29.90%
8 2025-06-20 16.21 Cobh Ramblers 3 1274 31.86% @ UC Dublin 0 1244 37.59% 30.55%
9 2025-04-11 15.90 @ Kerry 3 1136 32.80% Athlone Town 0 1200 36.60% 30.60%
10 2025-10-05 15.81 UC Dublin 3 1272 33.08% @ Wexford 0 1233 36.31% 30.61%
11 2025-09-26 15.73 Longford Town 2 1144 16.32% @ Bray Wanderers 0 1281 59.71% 23.97%
12 2025-08-04 14.05 @ Cobh Ramblers 4 1291 49.52% Wexford 0 1235 22.25% 28.23%
13 2025-02-14 13.30 @ UC Dublin 3 1261 41.20% Wexford 0 1266 28.62% 30.18%
14 2025-08-09 13.19 @ Longford Town 2 1131 23.89% Treaty United 0 1271 47.19% 28.93%
15 2025-05-09 13.12 Athlone Town 2 1181 24.15% @ Finn Harps 0 1217 46.83% 29.02%
16 2025-04-18 12.95 @ Bray Wanderers 4 1241 52.31% Longford Town 0 1164 20.44% 27.25%
17 2025-07-04 12.94 Dundalk 4 1332 52.35% @ Kerry 0 1153 20.42% 27.23%
18 2025-10-17 12.26 Treaty United 2 1220 27.29% @ Wexford 0 1227 42.78% 29.92%
19 2025-10-10 12.23 @ Longford Town 3 1167 20.86% Cobh Ramblers 1 1340 51.64% 27.50%
20 2025-07-25 12.20 UC Dublin 3 1255 44.80% @ Kerry 0 1133 25.68% 29.52%
21 2025-03-29 12.03 @ Longford Town 2 1162 28.18% Treaty United 0 1262 41.72% 30.10%
22 2025-05-09 11.91 Cobh Ramblers 2 1259 28.67% @ Wexford 0 1254 41.15% 30.18%
23 2025-08-08 11.60 Cobh Ramblers 2 1305 29.95% @ Bray Wanderers 0 1290 39.68% 30.37%
24 2025-05-02 11.44 Treaty United 2 1249 30.63% @ Finn Harps 0 1228 38.93% 30.44%
25 2025-03-28 11.39 @ Dundalk 3 1294 47.43% Wexford 0 1254 23.71% 28.86%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-08-29 65.5 @ Dundalk 3 1383 71.73% Kerry 3 1140 11.01% 17.25%
2 2025-10-10 60.1 @ UC Dublin 2 1288 65.84% Athlone Town 2 1099 13.47% 20.69%
3 2025-09-20 59.0 @ Longford Town 3 1137 15.60% Dundalk 2 1387 61.18% 23.22%
4 2025-05-09 58.5 @ Dundalk 2 1323 50.08% Bray Wanderers 2 1263 21.88% 28.05%
5 2025-08-22 58.4 @ Cobh Ramblers 2 1317 48.30% UC Dublin 2 1270 23.09% 28.61%
6 2025-03-07 57.8 @ Dundalk 2 1282 43.87% Treaty United 2 1268 26.41% 29.72%
7 2025-04-11 57.7 @ Wexford 2 1259 46.00% Finn Harps 2 1229 24.77% 29.24%
8 2025-07-25 57.5 @ Athlone Town 2 1150 25.23% Treaty United 2 1277 45.39% 29.38%
9 2025-06-13 57.4 @ Athlone Town 2 1176 45.03% Kerry 2 1153 25.50% 29.47%
10 2025-07-25 57.4 @ Finn Harps 2 1199 29.62% Cobh Ramblers 2 1287 40.05% 30.33%
11 2025-08-04 57.4 @ Finn Harps 2 1195 28.79% Bray Wanderers 2 1290 41.01% 30.20%
12 2025-08-30 57.1 @ Longford Town 2 1139 31.66% Wexford 2 1211 37.80% 30.53%
13 2025-09-19 56.1 @ Wexford 3 1212 25.80% Cobh Ramblers 2 1334 44.65% 29.55%
14 2025-02-14 55.9 Cobh Ramblers 3 1213 25.23% @ Treaty United 2 1239 45.38% 29.39%
15 2025-10-03 54.2 @ Athlone Town 1 1097 13.73% Dundalk 1 1382 65.25% 21.02%
16 2025-10-17 53.5 UC Dublin 4 1286 42.33% @ Finn Harps 3 1182 27.67% 30.00%
17 2025-08-04 53.1 @ Treaty United 1 1272 59.27% Kerry 1 1139 16.54% 24.19%
18 2025-06-13 53.0 @ Dundalk 1 1337 54.45% UC Dublin 1 1243 19.16% 26.40%
19 2025-03-21 52.8 Kerry 2 1142 17.40% @ Wexford 1 1261 57.61% 24.99%
20 2025-06-20 52.7 @ Dundalk 1 1336 49.58% Treaty United 1 1279 22.21% 28.21%
21 2025-04-21 52.6 @ Dundalk 1 1315 52.66% Finn Harps 1 1235 20.22% 27.11%
22 2025-05-09 52.5 @ UC Dublin 1 1248 55.21% Longford Town 1 1147 18.72% 26.07%
23 2025-09-05 52.3 @ Kerry 1 1141 19.99% Cobh Ramblers 1 1325 53.04% 26.97%
24 2025-03-07 52.2 @ UC Dublin 1 1274 51.32% Finn Harps 1 1204 21.07% 27.61%
25 2025-06-23 52.2 @ Longford Town 3 1140 36.87% Athlone Town 2 1175 32.54% 30.59%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-10-10 27.9 @ Dundalk 3 1380 66.09% Finn Harps 0 1189 13.36% 20.55%
2 2025-05-23 29.8 @ Dundalk 2 1328 64.79% Kerry 0 1148 13.93% 21.28%
3 2025-08-08 29.8 @ Dundalk 6 1347 69.17% Athlone Town 1 1128 12.06% 18.77%
4 2025-04-04 30.5 @ Treaty United 3 1250 55.80% Kerry 0 1145 18.38% 25.81%
5 2025-08-29 30.8 Cobh Ramblers 3 1316 54.94% @ Athlone Town 0 1117 18.87% 26.19%
6 2025-04-18 31.3 @ Bray Wanderers 4 1241 52.31% Longford Town 0 1164 20.44% 27.25%
7 2025-09-12 31.3 @ Cobh Ramblers 3 1324 54.66% Treaty United 0 1228 19.03% 26.30%
8 2025-07-04 31.5 Dundalk 4 1332 52.35% @ Kerry 0 1153 20.42% 27.23%
9 2025-04-26 32.3 Dundalk 3 1314 50.16% @ Longford Town 0 1152 21.82% 28.02%
10 2025-08-04 32.4 @ Dundalk 4 1342 67.78% Longford Town 1 1136 12.64% 19.58%
11 2025-08-04 32.5 @ Cobh Ramblers 4 1291 49.52% Wexford 0 1235 22.25% 28.23%
12 2025-03-28 33.4 @ Dundalk 3 1294 47.43% Wexford 0 1254 23.71% 28.86%
13 2025-03-07 33.5 @ Cobh Ramblers 5 1219 47.39% Longford Town 0 1179 23.74% 28.87%
14 2025-10-17 33.6 @ Bray Wanderers 5 1254 58.05% Kerry 1 1131 17.17% 24.78%
15 2025-05-23 33.7 @ Treaty United 5 1270 57.90% Longford Town 1 1149 17.25% 24.85%
16 2025-07-25 33.8 UC Dublin 3 1255 44.80% @ Kerry 0 1133 25.68% 29.52%
17 2025-05-16 34.4 @ Treaty United 4 1254 42.89% UC Dublin 0 1246 27.20% 29.90%
18 2025-05-30 34.4 @ UC Dublin 2 1235 49.00% Athlone Town 0 1183 22.60% 28.39%
19 2025-06-23 34.8 @ Cobh Ramblers 1 1290 59.04% Kerry 0 1159 16.66% 24.30%
20 2025-09-26 35.1 @ Cobh Ramblers 4 1328 59.13% Finn Harps 1 1196 16.61% 24.26%
21 2025-02-14 35.2 @ UC Dublin 3 1261 41.20% Wexford 0 1266 28.62% 30.18%
22 2025-06-27 35.5 Bray Wanderers 4 1248 38.57% @ Athlone Town 0 1170 30.96% 30.48%
23 2025-08-01 35.6 @ Kerry 4 1120 37.58% Athlone Town 0 1151 31.87% 30.55%
24 2025-03-21 35.7 @ Cobh Ramblers 2 1243 44.98% Athlone Town 0 1221 25.54% 29.48%
25 2025-09-05 35.9 @ Bray Wanderers 3 1279 63.78% Athlone Town 1 1108 14.38% 21.83%