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1923-24 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Bohemian

32 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Jacobs

5.69 points above expected

24 points · 18.31 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shamrock Rovers

5.97 points below expected

17 points · 22.97 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Bohemian 18 16 0 2 32 56 20 +36 28.30 +3.70
2 Shelbourne 18 13 2 3 28 55 21 +34 26.04 +1.96
3 Jacobs 18 11 2 5 24 36 21 +15 18.31 +5.69
4 Athlone Town 18 8 5 5 21 34 24 +10 17.83 +3.17
5 St. James Gate 18 9 2 7 20 38 27 +11 20.14 -0.14
6 Shelbourne United 18 8 3 7 19 30 31 -1 17.60 +1.40
7 Shamrock Rovers 18 7 3 8 17 35 32 +3 22.97 -5.97
8 Brooklyn FC 18 4 2 12 10 23 37 -14 12.24 -2.24
9 Pioneers 18 2 1 15 5 15 60 -45 8.82 -3.82
10 Midland Athletic 18 2 0 16 4 13 62 -49 7.75 -3.75

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Jacobs 24 18.31 +5.69
2 Bohemian 32 28.30 +3.70
3 Athlone Town 21 17.83 +3.17
4 Shelbourne 28 26.04 +1.96
5 Shelbourne United 19 17.60 +1.40

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shamrock Rovers 17 22.97 -5.97
2 Pioneers 5 8.82 -3.82
3 Midland Athletic 4 7.75 -3.75
4 Brooklyn FC 10 12.24 -2.24
5 St. James Gate 20 20.14 -0.14

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 15 Sep 8 – Dec 15 1 in 170
2 Pioneers 2 Dec 23 – Dec 26 1 in 87
3 Shelbourne United 4 Nov 3 – Nov 24 1 in 35
4 Jacobs 3 Nov 3 – Nov 17 1 in 12
5 Shelbourne 5 Nov 24 – Dec 22 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pioneers 9 Sep 8 – Nov 3 1 in 48
2 Shamrock Rovers 3 Nov 3 – Nov 18 1 in 14
3 Midland Athletic 8 Sep 8 – Oct 28 1 in 12
4 St. James Gate 3 Oct 27 – Nov 10 1 in 12
5 Athlone Town 3 Sep 16 – Sep 30 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Athlone Town 8 Oct 21 – Dec 8 1 in 91
2 Shelbourne United 7 Oct 13 – Nov 24 1 in 52
3 Pioneers 2 Dec 23 – Dec 26 1 in 20
4 Bohemian 15 Sep 8 – Dec 15 1 in 17
5 Shelbourne 7 Nov 10 – Dec 22 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shamrock Rovers 4 Dec 2 – Dec 23 1 in 35
2 Pioneers 15 Sep 8 – Dec 16 1 in 17
3 Shelbourne United 3 Dec 23 – Dec 29 1 in 8
4 Jacobs 3 Oct 13 – Oct 27 1 in 7
5 St. James Gate 3 Oct 27 – Nov 10 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Bohemian 1471 32 -71 6 7.9 -1.9
Shelbourne 1468 28 +55 8 7.0 +1.0
Jacobs 1282 24 +37 7 4.8 +2.2
Athlone Town 1290 21 +44 7 5.7 +1.3
St. James Gate 1247 20 +32 7 5.5 +1.5
Shelbourne United 1198 19 -89 3 6.0 -3.0
Shamrock Rovers 1291 17 +0 4 5.7 -1.7
Brooklyn FC 1050 10 -37 2 3.2 -1.2
Pioneers 878 5 +8 4 2.6 +1.4
Midland Athletic 885 4 +22 2 1.6 +0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AT BOH BRO JAC MA PIO SR SHE SU SJG
Athlone Town —
0-0-2
1.16
2-0-0
3.88
2-0-0
2.59
2-0-0
4.72
1-1-0
4.54
0-1-1
1.96
0-1-1
1.85
0-2-0
3.13
1-0-1
2.96
Bohemian
2-0-0
4.60
 —
2-0-0
5.12
2-0-0
4.41
2-0-0
5.05
2-0-0
4.96
1-0-1
4.35
1-0-1
3.52
2-0-0
4.20
2-0-0
4.24
Brooklyn FC
0-0-2
1.88
0-0-2
0.65
 —
0-1-1
1.62
2-0-0
3.94
1-0-1
3.93
0-1-1
1.20
0-0-2
1.07
1-0-1
1.73
0-0-2
1.84
Jacobs
0-0-2
3.18
0-0-2
1.36
1-1-0
4.14
 —
2-0-0
4.52
2-0-0
4.48
2-0-0
1.61
1-0-1
1.44
2-0-0
2.85
1-1-0
2.55
Midland Athletic
0-0-2
1.05
0-0-2
0.72
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
1.25
 —
2-0-0
2.57
0-0-2
0.65
0-0-2
0.44
0-0-2
1.07
0-0-2
0.69
Pioneers
0-1-1
1.23
0-0-2
0.81
1-0-1
1.83
0-0-2
1.29
0-0-2
3.19
 —
1-0-1
0.70
0-0-2
0.62
0-0-2
1.25
0-0-2
1.03
Shamrock Rovers
1-1-0
3.80
1-0-1
1.41
1-1-0
4.56
0-0-2
4.16
2-0-0
5.13
1-0-1
5.07
 —
0-1-1
2.32
1-0-1
3.71
0-0-2
3.53
Shelbourne
1-1-0
3.92
1-0-1
2.24
2-0-0
4.70
1-0-1
4.32
2-0-0
5.33
2-0-0
5.15
1-1-0
3.44
 —
1-0-1
4.36
2-0-0
3.96
Shelbourne United
0-2-0
2.64
0-0-2
1.57
1-0-1
4.03
0-0-2
2.91
2-0-0
4.70
2-0-0
4.52
1-0-1
2.06
1-0-1
1.40
 —
1-1-0
2.68
St. James Gate
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
1.52
2-0-0
3.93
0-1-1
3.21
2-0-0
5.08
2-0-0
4.74
2-0-0
2.23
0-0-2
1.80
0-1-1
3.09
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +6.2
Allowed 0.86 -5.6
Differential 0.96 +3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%3.89%7.78%3.89%1.67%2.78%22.22%
13.89%6.67%7.22%4.44%2.22%3.89%28.33%
27.78%7.22%1.11%2.78%1.11%2.22%22.22%
33.89%4.44%2.78%1.11%—0.56%12.78%
41.67%2.22%1.11%———5.00%
5+2.78%3.89%2.22%0.56%——9.44%
Total22.22%28.33%22.22%12.78%5.00%9.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.86 +0.00
SD 1.71 1.71 2.75
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
1—11.11%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
211.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%33.33%11.11%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.33 +0.56
SD 1.60 1.37 2.31
CV 0.85 1.03 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
15.56%—————5.56%
211.11%16.67%———5.56%33.33%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
45.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
5+5.56%11.11%————16.67%
Total27.78%50.00%16.67%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.11 1.11 +2.00
SD 1.75 1.18 2.25
CV 0.56 1.06 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%22.22%5.56%——33.33%
15.56%11.11%—22.22%5.56%5.56%50.00%
2———————
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total16.67%16.67%27.78%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.06 -0.78
SD 1.71 1.39 2.56
CV 1.34 0.68 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%11.11%16.67%11.11%——55.56%
2—27.78%————27.78%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total22.22%50.00%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.17 +0.83
SD 1.75 0.92 2.12
CV 0.87 0.79 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%22.22%16.67%5.56%11.11%61.11%
15.56%————11.11%16.67%
2————11.11%5.56%16.67%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%11.11%22.22%16.67%16.67%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 3.44 -2.72
SD 1.13 2.06 2.35
CV 1.56 0.60 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%11.11%—11.11%38.89%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%38.89%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%22.22%11.11%22.22%5.56%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 3.33 -2.50
SD 0.79 2.22 2.38
CV 0.94 0.67 —
Max 2 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%———11.11%
1—5.56%16.67%—5.56%—27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%27.78%38.89%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.78 +0.17
SD 1.30 1.06 1.89
CV 0.67 0.60 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1——11.11%———11.11%
216.67%—5.56%———22.22%
3—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
Total33.33%22.22%38.89%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.06 1.17 +1.89
SD 2.07 0.99 2.25
CV 0.68 0.84 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%——5.56%5.56%27.78%
1—11.11%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
211.11%5.56%———5.56%22.22%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total27.78%38.89%11.11%—5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.72 -0.06
SD 1.57 1.93 2.75
CV 0.94 1.12 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
216.67%——5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total38.89%11.11%27.78%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.50 +0.61
SD 1.64 1.62 2.45
CV 0.78 1.08 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Bohemian 1471 32 28.30 +3.70 93.0% 19 22 27 29 30 33 36
Shelbourne 1468 28 26.04 +1.96 76.0% 17 20 24 26 28 30 31
Shamrock Rovers 1291 17 22.97 -5.97 3.0% 13 18 21 23 25 28 30
Athlone Town 1290 21 17.83 +3.17 88.0% 10 12 15 18 20 23 27
Jacobs 1282 24 18.31 +5.69 95.0% 8 13 16 18 21 24 28
St. James Gate 1247 20 20.14 -0.14 55.0% 13 15 18 20 23 25 28
Shelbourne United 1198 19 17.60 +1.40 67.0% 10 12 15 18 20 23 25
Brooklyn FC 1050 10 12.24 -2.24 32.0% 4 6 10 12 14 19 21
Midland Athletic 885 4 7.75 -3.75 9.0% 2 3 6 7 10 12 14
Pioneers 878 5 8.82 -3.82 11.0% 2 3 7 9 10 13 17

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.89%
Slight Edge
48.89%11.11%40.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 30.96 Elo pts.
149 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.17 goals
Neutral
-2+0.21+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.0
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
63%
Bohemian, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Runaway
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.57 * Some Luck: 2.57 to 3.86 * Lucky: 3.86 to 5.15 * Wild Swing: 5.15 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.76 * Close: 0.76 to 1.13 * Off: 1.13 to 1.51 * Way Off: 1.51 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.62 points
Some Luck
03.228
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
00.942
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
Jacobs
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
Shamrock Rovers
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 209.54
2.32
Wide Separation
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
76%
Clear Edge
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
39%
Few
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
34%
Very Frequent
0%37%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.44
Highly Predictable
00.472
Matchup Imbalance
0.50
Lopsided
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.32
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.64
Strong Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Chalky
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.80
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.06
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.109
Well Within Noise
00.1620.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Bohemian63.00%26.00%7.00%2.00%2.00%—————
Shelbourne32.00%42.00%18.00%3.00%4.00%—1.00%———
Jacobs1.00%3.00%9.00%19.00%16.00%26.00%21.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%
Athlone Town—2.00%8.00%21.00%16.00%17.00%24.00%12.00%——
St. James Gate1.00%6.00%20.00%21.00%23.00%20.00%6.00%3.00%——
Shelbourne United—2.00%2.00%11.00%26.00%21.00%28.00%10.00%——
Shamrock Rovers3.00%19.00%36.00%22.00%10.00%7.00%3.00%———
Brooklyn FC———1.00%3.00%8.00%15.00%44.00%19.00%10.00%
Pioneers—————1.00%2.00%16.00%48.00%33.00%
Midland Athletic———————12.00%32.00%56.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Athlone Town 100%
Bohemian 100%
Brooklyn FC 100%
Jacobs 100%
Midland Athletic 100%
Pioneers 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
Shelbourne United 100%
St. James Gate 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1923-09-08 Pioneers W 3-029.7 1233 1098 66.81% 11.73% 21.46%+1.12 +23.8 2
1923-09-08 @ Athlone Town L 0-329.7 1098 1233 21.46% 11.73% 66.81%-1.12 -23.8 0
1923-09-08 Bohemian L 2-439.0 1021 1334 14.33% 11.62% 74.05%-1.90 -8.6 0
1923-09-08 @ Midland Athletic W 4-239.0 1334 1021 74.05% 11.62% 14.33%+1.90 +8.7 2
1923-09-08 Jacobs L 1-255.4 1391 1146 75.73% 11.63% 12.64%+1.86 -26.6 0
1923-09-08 @ Shamrock Rovers W 2-155.4 1146 1391 12.64% 11.63% 75.73%-1.86 +26.6 2
1923-09-08 Brooklyn FC W 5-129.5 1358 1081 77.66% 11.59% 10.74%+2.07 +13.4 2
1923-09-08 @ Shelbourne L 1-529.5 1081 1358 10.74% 11.59% 77.66%-2.07 -13.4 0
1923-09-08 Shelbourne United D 1-156.6 1194 1203 49.45% 11.78% 38.77%+0.15 -0.9 1
1923-09-08 @ St. James Gate D 1-156.6 1203 1194 38.77% 11.78% 49.45%-0.15 +0.9 1
1923-09-15 St. James Gate L 0-138.1 1068 1193 33.21% 11.77% 55.02%-0.64 -13.0 0
1923-09-15 @ Brooklyn FC W 1-038.1 1193 1068 55.02% 11.77% 33.21%+0.64 +13.0 3
1923-09-15 Midland Athletic W 7-129.7 1173 1012 69.21% 11.71% 19.08%+1.29 +33.6 4
1923-09-15 @ Jacobs L 1-729.7 1012 1173 19.08% 11.71% 69.21%-1.29 -33.6 0
1923-09-15 Bohemian L 1-729.5 1074 1342 17.80% 11.67% 70.53%-1.60 -31.5 0
1923-09-15 @ Pioneers W 7-129.5 1342 1074 70.53% 11.67% 17.80%+1.60 +31.4 4
1923-09-15 Shamrock Rovers L 1-241.5 1204 1365 28.78% 11.75% 59.47%-0.87 -10.7 1
1923-09-15 @ Shelbourne United W 2-141.5 1365 1204 59.47% 11.75% 28.78%+0.87 +10.7 2
1923-09-16 Shelbourne L 2-348.5 1257 1371 34.66% 11.77% 53.56%-0.56 -12.1 2
1923-09-16 @ Athlone Town W 3-248.5 1371 1257 53.56% 11.77% 34.66%+0.56 +12.1 4
1923-09-22 Jacobs W 2-138.5 1374 1206 69.79% 11.70% 18.50%+1.33 +7.1 6
1923-09-22 @ Bohemian L 1-238.5 1206 1374 18.50% 11.70% 69.79%-1.33 -7.1 4
1923-09-22 Shelbourne United L 2-635.7 978 1193 22.85% 11.72% 65.43%-1.23 -23.3 0
1923-09-22 @ Midland Athletic W 6-235.7 1193 978 65.43% 11.72% 22.85%+1.23 +23.3 3
1923-09-22 Brooklyn FC D 1-156.7 1376 1055 79.92% 11.53% 8.54%+2.37 -6.8 3
1923-09-22 @ Shamrock Rovers D 1-156.7 1055 1376 8.54% 11.53% 79.92%-2.37 +6.8 1
1923-09-22 Pioneers W 2-028.0 1383 1042 80.81% 11.50% 7.69%+2.50 +6.1 6
1923-09-22 @ Shelbourne L 0-228.0 1042 1383 7.69% 11.50% 80.81%-2.50 -6.1 0
1923-09-22 Athlone Town W 4-034.9 1206 1245 45.21% 11.79% 43.01%-0.05 +58.5 5
1923-09-22 @ St. James Gate L 0-434.9 1245 1206 43.01% 11.79% 45.21%+0.05 -58.5 2
1923-09-29 Midland Athletic W 1-035.4 1061 955 63.79% 11.75% 24.47%+0.92 +9.8 3
1923-09-29 @ Brooklyn FC L 0-135.4 955 1061 24.47% 11.75% 63.79%-0.92 -9.8 0
1923-09-29 Jacobs L 1-240.8 1036 1199 28.56% 11.75% 59.69%-0.89 -10.7 0
1923-09-29 @ Pioneers W 2-140.8 1199 1036 59.69% 11.75% 28.56%+0.89 +10.7 6
1923-09-29 St. James Gate W 2-033.6 1390 1265 65.76% 11.74% 22.51%+1.05 +17.1 8
1923-09-29 @ Shelbourne L 0-233.6 1265 1390 22.51% 11.74% 65.76%-1.05 -17.1 5
1923-09-29 Bohemian L 1-634.2 1216 1381 28.36% 11.75% 59.89%-0.90 -41.0 3
1923-09-29 @ Shelbourne United W 6-134.2 1381 1216 59.89% 11.75% 28.36%+0.90 +41.0 8
1923-09-30 Shamrock Rovers L 1-240.7 1186 1369 26.31% 11.74% 61.95%-1.02 -9.9 2
1923-09-30 @ Athlone Town W 2-140.7 1369 1186 61.95% 11.74% 26.31%+1.02 +9.9 5
1923-10-06 Brooklyn FC W 3-132.7 1422 1071 81.22% 11.49% 7.30%+2.57 +5.0 10
1923-10-06 @ Bohemian L 1-332.7 1071 1422 7.30% 11.49% 81.22%-2.57 -5.0 3
1923-10-06 Shelbourne United W 1-038.1 1210 1175 55.28% 11.78% 32.94%+0.44 +12.9 8
1923-10-06 @ Jacobs L 0-138.1 1175 1210 32.94% 11.78% 55.28%-0.44 -12.9 3
1923-10-06 Shelbourne D 2-264.4 1379 1407 46.75% 11.79% 41.47%+0.02 -0.3 6
1923-10-06 @ Shamrock Rovers D 2-264.4 1407 1379 41.47% 11.79% 46.75%-0.02 +0.3 9
1923-10-06 Pioneers W 5-025.4 1247 1026 74.14% 11.65% 14.21%+1.70 +25.9 7
1923-10-06 @ St. James Gate L 0-525.4 1026 1247 14.21% 11.65% 74.14%-1.70 -25.9 0
1923-10-07 Athlone Town L 0-231.9 945 1176 21.19% 11.70% 67.10%-1.35 -16.2 0
1923-10-07 @ Midland Athletic W 2-031.9 1176 945 67.10% 11.70% 21.19%+1.35 +16.2 4
1923-10-13 Bohemian L 0-135.4 1193 1427 20.89% 11.70% 67.41%-1.37 -8.5 4
1923-10-13 @ Athlone Town W 1-035.4 1427 1193 67.41% 11.70% 20.89%+1.37 +8.5 12
1923-10-13 Jacobs D 1-156.5 1066 1223 29.31% 11.75% 58.93%-0.85 +2.7 4
1923-10-13 @ Brooklyn FC D 1-156.5 1223 1066 58.93% 11.75% 29.31%+0.85 -2.6 9
1923-10-13 Shelbourne United L 1-338.8 1000 1162 28.60% 11.75% 59.65%-0.88 -18.5 0
1923-10-13 @ Pioneers W 3-138.8 1162 1000 59.65% 11.75% 28.60%+0.88 +18.5 5
1923-10-13 Midland Athletic W 2-026.6 1407 929 85.08% 11.27% 3.66%+3.42 +2.9 11
1923-10-13 @ Shelbourne L 0-226.6 929 1407 3.66% 11.27% 85.08%-3.42 -2.9 0
1923-10-13 Shamrock Rovers W 2-042.6 1273 1378 35.92% 11.77% 52.30%-0.50 +36.8 9
1923-10-13 @ St. James Gate L 0-242.6 1378 1273 52.30% 11.77% 35.92%+0.50 -36.8 6
1923-10-20 Shelbourne W 2-040.5 1436 1410 54.08% 11.78% 34.14%+0.38 +25.1 14
1923-10-20 @ Bohemian L 0-240.5 1410 1436 34.14% 11.78% 54.08%-0.38 -25.1 11
1923-10-20 Shelbourne United L 1-340.8 1069 1181 34.98% 11.77% 53.24%-0.54 -22.2 4
1923-10-20 @ Brooklyn FC W 3-140.8 1181 1069 53.24% 11.77% 34.98%+0.54 +22.2 7
1923-10-21 Athlone Town L 1-249.0 1220 1184 55.44% 11.78% 32.78%+0.45 -19.4 9
1923-10-21 @ Jacobs W 2-149.0 1184 1220 32.78% 11.78% 55.44%-0.45 +19.4 6
1923-10-21 St. James Gate L 0-326.2 926 1310 10.00% 11.53% 78.47%-2.37 -11.5 0
1923-10-21 @ Midland Athletic W 3-026.2 1310 926 78.47% 11.53% 10.00%+2.37 +11.5 11
1923-10-21 Pioneers W 5-128.2 1342 981 81.59% 11.47% 6.93%+2.63 +8.7 8
1923-10-21 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-528.2 981 1342 6.93% 11.47% 81.59%-2.63 -8.7 0
1923-10-27 Brooklyn FC L 0-633.3 972 1047 40.17% 11.78% 48.05%-0.29 -80.6 0
1923-10-27 @ Pioneers W 6-033.3 1047 972 48.05% 11.78% 40.17%+0.29 +80.6 6
1923-10-27 Jacobs W 3-136.2 1385 1201 71.22% 11.69% 17.09%+1.44 +11.4 13
1923-10-27 @ Shelbourne L 1-336.2 1201 1385 17.09% 11.69% 71.22%-1.44 -11.5 9
1923-10-27 Bohemian L 1-342.9 1322 1461 31.51% 11.76% 56.73%-0.73 -20.2 11
1923-10-27 @ St. James Gate W 3-142.9 1461 1322 56.73% 11.76% 31.51%+0.73 +20.2 16
1923-10-28 Shelbourne United D 0-053.4 1204 1203 50.73% 11.78% 37.49%+0.21 -1.3 7
1923-10-28 @ Athlone Town D 0-053.4 1203 1204 37.49% 11.78% 50.73%-0.21 +1.3 8
1923-10-28 Midland Athletic W 3-024.5 1350 915 84.04% 11.35% 4.61%+3.13 +5.4 10
1923-10-28 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-324.5 915 1350 4.61% 11.35% 84.04%-3.13 -5.4 0
1923-11-03 Shamrock Rovers W 4-139.3 1481 1356 65.76% 11.74% 22.50%+1.05 +21.0 18
1923-11-03 @ Bohemian L 1-439.3 1356 1481 22.50% 11.74% 65.76%-1.05 -21.0 10
1923-11-03 Athlone Town L 0-237.6 1127 1202 40.02% 11.78% 48.20%-0.30 -28.9 6
1923-11-03 @ Brooklyn FC W 2-037.6 1202 1127 48.20% 11.78% 40.02%+0.30 +28.9 9
1923-11-03 St. James Gate W 2-148.5 1189 1301 34.98% 11.77% 53.25%-0.55 +18.7 11
1923-11-03 @ Jacobs L 1-248.5 1301 1189 53.25% 11.77% 34.98%+0.55 -18.7 11
1923-11-03 Pioneers W 1-038.6 909 892 53.01% 11.78% 35.21%+0.33 +13.7 2
1923-11-03 @ Midland Athletic L 0-138.6 892 909 35.21% 11.78% 53.01%-0.33 -13.7 0
1923-11-03 Shelbourne W 2-152.0 1204 1396 25.25% 11.73% 63.02%-1.08 +22.0 10
1923-11-03 @ Shelbourne United L 1-252.0 1396 1204 63.02% 11.73% 25.25%+1.08 -22.0 13
1923-11-10 Midland Athletic W 4-022.3 1502 923 86.86% 11.05% 2.09%+4.10 +3.2 20
1923-11-10 @ Bohemian L 0-422.3 923 1502 2.09% 11.05% 86.86%-4.10 -3.2 2
1923-11-10 Shelbourne L 1-335.7 1098 1374 17.17% 11.66% 71.17%-1.65 -11.5 6
1923-11-10 @ Brooklyn FC W 3-135.7 1374 1098 71.17% 11.66% 17.17%+1.65 +11.5 15
1923-11-10 Shamrock Rovers W 2-149.3 1208 1335 33.07% 11.77% 55.17%-0.64 +19.3 13
1923-11-10 @ Jacobs L 1-249.3 1335 1208 55.17% 11.77% 33.07%+0.64 -19.3 10
1923-11-10 St. James Gate W 3-037.3 1226 1283 42.68% 11.78% 45.54%-0.17 +47.1 12
1923-11-10 @ Shelbourne United L 0-337.3 1283 1226 45.54% 11.78% 42.68%+0.17 -47.1 11
1923-11-11 Athlone Town D 1-156.5 878 1231 11.72% 11.57% 76.70%-2.16 +6.1 1
1923-11-11 @ Pioneers D 1-156.5 1231 878 76.70% 11.57% 11.72%+2.16 -6.1 10
1923-11-17 Pioneers W 3-237.4 1505 884 87.40% 10.95% 1.65%+4.38 +0.6 22
1923-11-17 @ Bohemian L 2-337.4 884 1505 1.65% 10.95% 87.40%-4.38 -0.6 1
1923-11-17 Jacobs L 1-629.1 920 1227 14.73% 11.63% 73.64%-1.86 -22.2 2
1923-11-17 @ Midland Athletic W 6-129.1 1227 920 73.64% 11.63% 14.73%+1.86 +22.2 15
1923-11-17 Athlone Town D 0-054.2 1386 1225 69.19% 11.71% 19.10%+1.29 -5.2 16
1923-11-17 @ Shelbourne D 0-054.2 1225 1386 19.10% 11.71% 69.19%-1.29 +5.2 11
1923-11-17 Brooklyn FC W 2-031.7 1236 1087 68.10% 11.72% 20.18%+1.21 +15.5 13
1923-11-17 @ St. James Gate L 0-231.7 1087 1236 20.18% 11.72% 68.10%-1.21 -15.5 6
1923-11-18 Shelbourne United L 0-243.2 1315 1273 56.21% 11.77% 32.02%+0.49 -39.4 10
1923-11-18 @ Shamrock Rovers W 2-043.2 1273 1315 32.02% 11.77% 56.21%-0.49 +39.4 14
1923-11-24 St. James Gate W 3-249.5 1230 1251 47.76% 11.79% 40.46%+0.07 +13.9 13
1923-11-24 @ Athlone Town L 2-349.5 1251 1230 40.46% 11.79% 47.76%-0.07 -13.9 13
1923-11-24 Shamrock Rovers L 1-337.5 1071 1276 23.87% 11.72% 64.40%-1.17 -15.7 6
1923-11-24 @ Brooklyn FC W 3-137.5 1276 1071 64.40% 11.72% 23.87%+1.17 +15.7 12
1923-11-24 Bohemian L 1-240.5 1250 1506 18.89% 11.68% 69.42%-1.51 -7.3 15
1923-11-24 @ Jacobs W 2-140.5 1506 1250 69.42% 11.68% 18.89%+1.51 +7.3 24
1923-11-24 Shelbourne L 1-725.6 884 1381 5.48% 11.35% 83.17%-3.13 -10.0 1
1923-11-24 @ Pioneers W 7-125.6 1381 884 83.17% 11.35% 5.48%+3.13 +10.0 18
1923-11-24 Midland Athletic W 2-027.0 1313 898 83.46% 11.38% 5.16%+3.00 +4.1 16
1923-11-24 @ Shelbourne United L 0-227.0 898 1313 5.16% 11.38% 83.46%-3.00 -4.1 2
1923-12-01 Shelbourne United W 5-030.3 1513 1317 72.18% 11.68% 16.14%+1.52 +29.3 26
1923-12-01 @ Bohemian L 0-530.3 1317 1513 16.14% 11.68% 72.18%-1.52 -29.3 16
1923-12-01 Pioneers W 1-030.0 1242 874 81.91% 11.46% 6.63%+2.69 +2.8 17
1923-12-01 @ Jacobs L 0-130.0 874 1242 6.63% 11.46% 81.91%-2.69 -2.8 1
1923-12-01 Brooklyn FC L 0-331.8 893 1056 28.66% 11.75% 59.59%-0.88 -31.1 2
1923-12-01 @ Midland Athletic W 3-031.8 1056 893 59.59% 11.75% 28.66%+0.88 +31.1 8
1923-12-01 Shelbourne L 3-643.6 1237 1391 29.71% 11.75% 58.53%-0.82 -21.7 13
1923-12-01 @ St. James Gate W 6-343.6 1391 1237 58.53% 11.75% 29.71%+0.82 +21.7 20
1923-12-02 Athlone Town D 3-366.1 1292 1244 56.91% 11.77% 31.32%+0.53 -1.4 13
1923-12-02 @ Shamrock Rovers D 3-366.1 1244 1292 31.32% 11.77% 56.91%-0.53 +1.4 14
1923-12-08 Midland Athletic W 6-023.0 1246 862 82.43% 11.44% 6.14%+2.78 +13.6 16
1923-12-08 @ Athlone Town L 0-623.0 862 1246 6.14% 11.44% 82.43%-2.78 -13.6 2
1923-12-08 Bohemian L 0-228.6 1087 1542 6.86% 11.42% 81.72%-2.85 -5.5 8
1923-12-08 @ Brooklyn FC W 2-028.6 1542 1087 81.72% 11.42% 6.86%+2.85 +5.5 28
1923-12-08 St. James Gate L 2-632.4 871 1216 12.23% 11.58% 76.18%-2.11 -12.9 1
1923-12-08 @ Pioneers W 6-232.4 1216 871 76.18% 11.58% 12.23%+2.11 +12.9 15
1923-12-08 Shamrock Rovers W 3-245.7 1412 1290 65.46% 11.74% 22.80%+1.03 +8.2 22
1923-12-08 @ Shelbourne L 2-345.7 1290 1412 22.80% 11.74% 65.46%-1.03 -8.2 13
1923-12-09 Jacobs L 0-145.5 1288 1245 56.27% 11.77% 31.95%+0.49 -20.9 16
1923-12-09 @ Shelbourne United W 1-045.5 1245 1288 31.95% 11.77% 56.27%-0.49 +20.9 19
1923-12-15 Athlone Town W 4-134.8 1548 1259 78.29% 11.58% 10.13%+2.15 +9.8 30
1923-12-15 @ Bohemian L 1-434.8 1259 1548 10.13% 11.58% 78.29%-2.15 -9.8 16
1923-12-15 Shelbourne L 0-622.2 849 1421 3.64% 11.20% 85.16%-3.63 -8.1 2
1923-12-15 @ Midland Athletic W 6-022.2 1421 849 85.16% 11.20% 3.64%+3.63 +8.1 24
1923-12-15 St. James Gate L 2-354.7 1282 1228 57.67% 11.77% 30.56%+0.57 -19.1 13
1923-12-15 @ Shamrock Rovers W 3-254.7 1228 1282 30.56% 11.77% 57.67%-0.57 +19.1 17
1923-12-16 Brooklyn FC W 3-028.4 1266 1081 71.28% 11.69% 17.03%+1.45 +19.1 21
1923-12-16 @ Jacobs L 0-328.4 1081 1266 17.03% 11.69% 71.28%-1.45 -19.1 8
1923-12-16 Pioneers W 3-024.7 1267 858 83.27% 11.39% 5.34%+2.95 +6.2 18
1923-12-16 @ Shelbourne United L 0-324.7 858 1267 5.34% 11.39% 83.27%-2.95 -6.2 1
1923-12-22 Bohemian W 5-257.7 1429 1557 32.82% 11.77% 55.41%-0.66 +41.2 26
1923-12-22 @ Shelbourne L 2-557.7 1557 1429 55.41% 11.77% 32.82%+0.66 -41.2 30
1923-12-22 Midland Athletic W 2-027.0 1248 841 83.21% 11.40% 5.40%+2.94 +4.3 19
1923-12-22 @ St. James Gate L 0-227.0 841 1248 5.40% 11.40% 83.21%-2.94 -4.3 2
1923-12-23 Jacobs W 3-143.6 1249 1285 45.63% 11.79% 42.58%-0.03 +26.5 18
1923-12-23 @ Athlone Town L 1-343.6 1285 1249 42.58% 11.79% 45.63%+0.03 -26.5 21
1923-12-23 Shamrock Rovers W 2-156.0 852 1263 8.68% 11.49% 79.83%-2.55 +28.1 3
1923-12-23 @ Pioneers L 1-256.0 1263 852 79.83% 11.49% 8.68%+2.55 -28.1 13
1923-12-23 Brooklyn FC L 2-553.7 1273 1062 73.33% 11.67% 15.00%+1.62 -54.5 18
1923-12-23 @ Shelbourne United W 5-253.7 1062 1273 15.00% 11.67% 73.33%-1.62 +54.5 10
1923-12-25 Shamrock Rovers L 2-437.3 836 1235 9.27% 11.51% 79.22%-2.47 -5.7 2
1923-12-25 @ Midland Athletic W 4-237.3 1235 836 79.22% 11.51% 9.27%+2.47 +5.7 15
1923-12-26 St. James Gate W 2-138.5 1516 1252 76.92% 11.61% 11.47%+1.98 +4.5 32
1923-12-26 @ Bohemian L 1-238.5 1252 1516 11.47% 11.61% 76.92%-1.98 -4.5 19
1923-12-26 Pioneers L 0-248.0 1117 880 75.17% 11.64% 13.19%+1.80 -52.7 10
1923-12-26 @ Brooklyn FC W 2-048.0 880 1117 13.19% 11.64% 75.17%-1.80 +52.7 5
1923-12-26 Shelbourne W 2-154.0 1259 1470 23.20% 11.72% 65.08%-1.21 +22.7 23
1923-12-26 @ Jacobs L 1-254.0 1470 1259 65.08% 11.72% 23.20%+1.21 -22.7 26
1923-12-26 Athlone Town D 1-156.8 1218 1276 42.54% 11.78% 45.67%-0.18 +0.3 19
1923-12-26 @ Shelbourne United D 1-156.8 1276 1218 45.67% 11.78% 42.54%+0.18 -0.3 19
1923-12-29 Bohemian W 2-049.8 1241 1521 16.84% 11.66% 71.50%-1.67 +50.0 17
1923-12-29 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-249.8 1521 1241 71.50% 11.66% 16.84%+1.67 -50.0 32
1923-12-29 Shelbourne United W 4-027.3 1447 1219 74.60% 11.65% 13.75%+1.74 +20.4 28
1923-12-29 @ Shelbourne L 0-427.3 1219 1447 13.75% 11.65% 74.60%-1.74 -20.4 19
1923-12-30 Brooklyn FC W 4-132.6 1276 1064 73.39% 11.66% 14.94%+1.63 +14.2 21
1923-12-30 @ Athlone Town L 1-432.6 1064 1276 14.94% 11.66% 73.39%-1.63 -14.2 10
1923-12-30 Midland Athletic L 1-447.0 932 831 63.31% 11.75% 24.94%+0.89 -54.1 5
1923-12-30 @ Pioneers W 4-147.0 831 932 24.94% 11.75% 63.31%-0.89 +54.2 4
1924-05-13 Jacobs D 1-156.9 1247 1281 45.88% 11.79% 42.33%-0.02 -0.3 20
1924-05-13 @ St. James Gate D 1-156.9 1281 1247 42.33% 11.79% 45.88%+0.02 +0.3 24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1923-12-23 8.68% @ Pioneers 852 2 Shamrock Rovers 1263 1
2 1923-09-08 12.64% Jacobs 1146 2 @ Shamrock Rovers 1391 1
3 1923-12-26 13.19% Pioneers 880 2 @ Brooklyn FC 1117 0
4 1923-12-23 15.00% Brooklyn FC 1062 5 @ Shelbourne United 1273 2
5 1923-12-29 16.84% @ Shamrock Rovers 1241 2 Bohemian 1521 0
6 1923-12-26 23.20% @ Jacobs 1259 2 Shelbourne 1470 1
7 1923-12-30 24.94% Midland Athletic 831 4 @ Pioneers 932 1
8 1923-11-03 25.25% @ Shelbourne United 1204 2 Shelbourne 1396 1
9 1923-12-15 30.56% St. James Gate 1228 3 @ Shamrock Rovers 1282 2
10 1923-12-09 31.95% Jacobs 1245 1 @ Shelbourne United 1288 0
11 1923-11-18 32.02% Shelbourne United 1273 2 @ Shamrock Rovers 1315 0
12 1923-10-21 32.78% Athlone Town 1184 2 @ Jacobs 1220 1
13 1923-12-22 32.82% @ Shelbourne 1429 5 Bohemian 1557 2
14 1923-11-10 33.07% @ Jacobs 1208 2 Shamrock Rovers 1335 1
15 1923-11-03 34.98% @ Jacobs 1189 2 St. James Gate 1301 1
16 1923-10-13 35.92% @ St. James Gate 1273 2 Shamrock Rovers 1378 0
17 1923-11-10 42.68% @ Shelbourne United 1226 3 St. James Gate 1283 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1923-10-27 80.59 Brooklyn FC 6 1047 48.05% @ Pioneers 0 972 40.17% 11.78%
2 1923-09-22 58.49 @ St. James Gate 4 1206 45.21% Athlone Town 0 1245 43.01% 11.79%
3 1923-12-23 54.48 Brooklyn FC 5 1062 15.00% @ Shelbourne United 2 1273 73.33% 11.67%
4 1923-12-30 54.16 Midland Athletic 4 831 24.94% @ Pioneers 1 932 63.31% 11.75%
5 1923-12-26 52.72 Pioneers 2 880 13.19% @ Brooklyn FC 0 1117 75.17% 11.64%
6 1923-12-29 50.02 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1241 16.84% Bohemian 0 1521 71.50% 11.66%
7 1923-11-10 47.10 @ Shelbourne United 3 1226 42.68% St. James Gate 0 1283 45.54% 11.78%
8 1923-12-22 41.20 @ Shelbourne 5 1429 32.82% Bohemian 2 1557 55.41% 11.77%
9 1923-09-29 41.02 Bohemian 6 1381 59.89% @ Shelbourne United 1 1216 28.36% 11.75%
10 1923-11-18 39.38 Shelbourne United 2 1273 32.02% @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1315 56.21% 11.77%
11 1923-10-13 36.79 @ St. James Gate 2 1273 35.92% Shamrock Rovers 0 1378 52.30% 11.77%
12 1923-09-15 33.60 @ Jacobs 7 1173 69.21% Midland Athletic 1 1012 19.08% 11.71%
13 1923-09-15 31.45 Bohemian 7 1342 70.53% @ Pioneers 1 1074 17.80% 11.67%
14 1923-12-01 31.08 Brooklyn FC 3 1056 59.59% @ Midland Athletic 0 893 28.66% 11.75%
15 1923-12-01 29.28 @ Bohemian 5 1513 72.18% Shelbourne United 0 1317 16.14% 11.68%
16 1923-11-03 28.92 Athlone Town 2 1202 48.20% @ Brooklyn FC 0 1127 40.02% 11.78%
17 1923-12-23 28.09 @ Pioneers 2 852 8.68% Shamrock Rovers 1 1263 79.83% 11.49%
18 1923-09-08 26.57 Jacobs 2 1146 12.64% @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1391 75.73% 11.63%
19 1923-12-23 26.47 @ Athlone Town 3 1249 45.63% Jacobs 1 1285 42.58% 11.79%
20 1923-10-06 25.93 @ St. James Gate 5 1247 74.14% Pioneers 0 1026 14.21% 11.65%
21 1923-10-20 25.08 @ Bohemian 2 1436 54.08% Shelbourne 0 1410 34.14% 11.78%
22 1923-09-08 23.78 @ Athlone Town 3 1233 66.81% Pioneers 0 1098 21.46% 11.73%
23 1923-09-22 23.28 Shelbourne United 6 1193 65.43% @ Midland Athletic 2 978 22.85% 11.72%
24 1923-12-26 22.73 @ Jacobs 2 1259 23.20% Shelbourne 1 1470 65.08% 11.72%
25 1923-11-17 22.21 Jacobs 6 1227 73.64% @ Midland Athletic 1 920 14.73% 11.63%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1923-12-02 66.1 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1292 56.91% Athlone Town 3 1244 31.32% 11.77%
2 1923-10-06 64.4 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1379 46.75% Shelbourne 2 1407 41.47% 11.79%
3 1923-12-22 57.7 @ Shelbourne 5 1429 32.82% Bohemian 2 1557 55.41% 11.77%
4 1924-05-13 56.9 @ St. James Gate 1 1247 45.88% Jacobs 1 1281 42.33% 11.79%
5 1923-12-26 56.8 @ Shelbourne United 1 1218 42.54% Athlone Town 1 1276 45.67% 11.78%
6 1923-09-22 56.7 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1376 79.92% Brooklyn FC 1 1055 8.54% 11.53%
7 1923-09-08 56.6 @ St. James Gate 1 1194 49.45% Shelbourne United 1 1203 38.77% 11.78%
8 1923-10-13 56.5 @ Brooklyn FC 1 1066 29.31% Jacobs 1 1223 58.93% 11.75%
9 1923-11-11 56.5 @ Pioneers 1 878 11.72% Athlone Town 1 1231 76.70% 11.57%
10 1923-12-23 56.0 @ Pioneers 2 852 8.68% Shamrock Rovers 1 1263 79.83% 11.49%
11 1923-09-08 55.4 Jacobs 2 1146 12.64% @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1391 75.73% 11.63%
12 1923-12-15 54.7 St. James Gate 3 1228 30.56% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1282 57.67% 11.77%
13 1923-11-17 54.2 @ Shelbourne 0 1386 69.19% Athlone Town 0 1225 19.10% 11.71%
14 1923-12-26 54.0 @ Jacobs 2 1259 23.20% Shelbourne 1 1470 65.08% 11.72%
15 1923-12-23 53.7 Brooklyn FC 5 1062 15.00% @ Shelbourne United 2 1273 73.33% 11.67%
16 1923-10-28 53.4 @ Athlone Town 0 1204 50.73% Shelbourne United 0 1203 37.49% 11.78%
17 1923-11-03 52.0 @ Shelbourne United 2 1204 25.25% Shelbourne 1 1396 63.02% 11.73%
18 1923-12-29 49.8 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1241 16.84% Bohemian 0 1521 71.50% 11.66%
19 1923-11-24 49.5 @ Athlone Town 3 1230 47.76% St. James Gate 2 1251 40.46% 11.79%
20 1923-11-10 49.3 @ Jacobs 2 1208 33.07% Shamrock Rovers 1 1335 55.17% 11.77%
21 1923-10-21 49.0 Athlone Town 2 1184 32.78% @ Jacobs 1 1220 55.44% 11.78%
22 1923-09-16 48.5 Shelbourne 3 1371 53.56% @ Athlone Town 2 1257 34.66% 11.77%
23 1923-11-03 48.5 @ Jacobs 2 1189 34.98% St. James Gate 1 1301 53.25% 11.77%
24 1923-12-26 48.0 Pioneers 2 880 13.19% @ Brooklyn FC 0 1117 75.17% 11.64%
25 1923-12-30 47.0 Midland Athletic 4 831 24.94% @ Pioneers 1 932 63.31% 11.75%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1923-12-15 22.2 Shelbourne 6 1421 85.16% @ Midland Athletic 0 849 3.64% 11.20%
2 1923-11-10 22.3 @ Bohemian 4 1502 86.86% Midland Athletic 0 923 2.09% 11.05%
3 1923-12-08 23.0 @ Athlone Town 6 1246 82.43% Midland Athletic 0 862 6.14% 11.44%
4 1923-10-28 24.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1350 84.04% Midland Athletic 0 915 4.61% 11.35%
5 1923-12-16 24.7 @ Shelbourne United 3 1267 83.27% Pioneers 0 858 5.34% 11.39%
6 1923-10-06 25.4 @ St. James Gate 5 1247 74.14% Pioneers 0 1026 14.21% 11.65%
7 1923-11-24 25.6 Shelbourne 7 1381 83.17% @ Pioneers 1 884 5.48% 11.35%
8 1923-10-21 26.2 St. James Gate 3 1310 78.47% @ Midland Athletic 0 926 10.00% 11.53%
9 1923-10-13 26.6 @ Shelbourne 2 1407 85.08% Midland Athletic 0 929 3.66% 11.27%
10 1923-11-24 27.0 @ Shelbourne United 2 1313 83.46% Midland Athletic 0 898 5.16% 11.38%
11 1923-12-22 27.0 @ St. James Gate 2 1248 83.21% Midland Athletic 0 841 5.40% 11.40%
12 1923-12-29 27.3 @ Shelbourne 4 1447 74.60% Shelbourne United 0 1219 13.75% 11.65%
13 1923-09-22 28.0 @ Shelbourne 2 1383 80.81% Pioneers 0 1042 7.69% 11.50%
14 1923-10-21 28.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 5 1342 81.59% Pioneers 1 981 6.93% 11.47%
15 1923-12-16 28.4 @ Jacobs 3 1266 71.28% Brooklyn FC 0 1081 17.03% 11.69%
16 1923-12-08 28.6 Bohemian 2 1542 81.72% @ Brooklyn FC 0 1087 6.86% 11.42%
17 1923-11-17 29.1 Jacobs 6 1227 73.64% @ Midland Athletic 1 920 14.73% 11.63%
18 1923-09-08 29.5 @ Shelbourne 5 1358 77.66% Brooklyn FC 1 1081 10.74% 11.59%
19 1923-09-15 29.5 Bohemian 7 1342 70.53% @ Pioneers 1 1074 17.80% 11.67%
20 1923-09-08 29.7 @ Athlone Town 3 1233 66.81% Pioneers 0 1098 21.46% 11.73%
21 1923-09-15 29.7 @ Jacobs 7 1173 69.21% Midland Athletic 1 1012 19.08% 11.71%
22 1923-12-01 30.0 @ Jacobs 1 1242 81.91% Pioneers 0 874 6.63% 11.46%
23 1923-12-01 30.3 @ Bohemian 5 1513 72.18% Shelbourne United 0 1317 16.14% 11.68%
24 1923-11-17 31.7 @ St. James Gate 2 1236 68.10% Brooklyn FC 0 1087 20.18% 11.72%
25 1923-12-01 31.8 Brooklyn FC 3 1056 59.59% @ Midland Athletic 0 893 28.66% 11.75%