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1924-25 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Shamrock Rovers

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Shamrock Rovers

5.26 points above expected

31 points · 25.74 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bray Unknowns

2.91 points below expected

9 points · 11.91 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shamrock Rovers 18 13 5 0 31 67 12 +55 25.74 +5.26
2 Bohemian 18 11 6 1 28 40 11 +29 25.98 +2.02
3 Shelbourne 18 12 3 3 27 55 20 +35 25.36 +1.64
4 Fordsons 18 10 1 7 21 35 32 +3 18.81 +2.19
5 Jacobs 18 8 1 9 17 36 35 +1 18.37 -1.37
6 St. James Gate 18 5 7 6 17 30 36 -6 18.84 -1.84
7 Athlone Town 18 5 4 9 14 15 32 -17 14.46 -0.46
8 Brooklyn FC 18 4 3 11 11 24 57 -33 12.66 -1.66
9 Bray Unknowns 18 3 3 12 9 21 44 -23 11.91 -2.91
10 Pioneers 18 2 1 15 5 21 65 -44 7.87 -2.87

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shamrock Rovers 31 25.74 +5.26
2 Fordsons 21 18.81 +2.19
3 Bohemian 28 25.98 +2.02
4 Shelbourne 27 25.36 +1.64
5 Athlone Town 14 14.46 -0.46

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bray Unknowns 9 11.91 -2.91
2 Pioneers 5 7.87 -2.87
3 St. James Gate 17 18.84 -1.84
4 Brooklyn FC 11 12.66 -1.66
5 Jacobs 17 18.37 -1.37

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fordsons 4 Sep 21 – Oct 11 1 in 100
2 Athlone Town 3 Dec 13 – Dec 26 1 in 9
3 Shamrock Rovers 4 Oct 19 – Nov 8 1 in 8
4 Bray Unknowns 2 Nov 15 – Nov 22 1 in 7
5 Pioneers 1 Sep 13 – Sep 13 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bray Unknowns 6 Oct 4 – Nov 8 1 in 29
2 St. James Gate 2 Dec 6 – Dec 13 1 in 17
3 Fordsons 3 Nov 8 – Nov 23 1 in 14
4 Pioneers 6 Nov 1 – Dec 6 1 in 13
5 Brooklyn FC 4 Dec 13 – Jan 10 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shamrock Rovers 18 Sep 6 – Jan 10 1 in 54
2 Bohemian 15 Sep 27 – Jan 10 1 in 32
3 Fordsons 4 Sep 21 – Oct 11 1 in 12
4 Bray Unknowns 2 Sep 20 – Sep 27 1 in 8
5 St. James Gate 5 Sep 27 – Oct 25 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. James Gate 5 Nov 29 – Dec 26 1 in 41
2 Bray Unknowns 9 Sep 13 – Nov 8 1 in 18
3 Athlone Town 5 Sep 13 – Oct 11 1 in 15
4 Shelbourne 2 Sep 27 – Oct 5 1 in 8
5 Pioneers 12 Sep 20 – Dec 6 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shamrock Rovers 1381 31 +62 8 7.4 +0.6
Shelbourne 1312 27 +84 9 6.9 +2.1
Bohemian 1326 24 +58 9 7.5 +1.5
Fordsons 1061 21 -16 6 5.7 +0.3
Jacobs 1063 17 +20 6 5.4 +0.6
St. James Gate 971 17 -48 3 5.5 -2.5
Athlone Town 957 14 +8 6 4.7 +1.3
Brooklyn FC 814 11 -65 2 3.6 -1.6
Bray Unknowns 856 9 -27 1 2.2 -1.2
Pioneers 713 5 +10 2 2.1 -0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AT BOH BU BRO FOR JAC PIO SR SHE SJG
Athlone Town —
0-0-2
1.08
0-1-1
3.70
1-1-0
3.00
1-0-1
1.94
0-1-1
2.43
2-0-0
4.08
0-0-2
1.03
0-0-2
1.64
1-1-0
2.34
Bohemian
2-0-0
4.53
 —
1-1-0
4.63
2-0-0
4.64
2-0-0
4.00
2-0-0
3.80
1-1-0
5.10
0-2-0
2.50
0-1-1
2.67
1-1-0
3.75
Bray Unknowns
1-1-0
1.90
0-1-1
0.98
 —
1-0-1
2.71
0-0-2
1.82
0-0-2
1.82
1-0-1
3.68
0-0-2
0.63
0-0-2
0.87
0-1-1
1.81
Brooklyn FC
0-1-1
2.59
0-0-2
0.98
1-0-1
2.88
 —
0-1-1
1.65
1-0-1
1.97
2-0-0
3.78
0-0-2
1.05
0-0-2
0.85
0-1-1
1.73
Fordsons
1-0-1
3.65
0-0-2
1.60
2-0-0
3.78
1-1-0
3.95
 —
1-0-1
2.97
2-0-0
4.66
0-0-2
1.40
2-0-0
1.21
1-0-1
2.20
Jacobs
1-1-0
3.16
0-0-2
1.80
2-0-0
3.77
1-0-1
3.63
1-0-1
2.62
 —
2-0-0
4.30
0-0-2
2.05
0-0-2
1.43
1-0-1
3.41
Pioneers
0-0-2
1.52
0-1-1
0.54
1-0-1
1.91
0-0-2
1.82
0-0-2
0.95
0-0-2
1.30
 —
0-0-2
0.76
0-0-2
0.71
1-0-1
1.00
Shamrock Rovers
2-0-0
4.58
0-2-0
3.09
2-0-0
5.00
2-0-0
4.56
2-0-0
4.20
2-0-0
3.55
2-0-0
4.88
 —
1-1-0
3.21
0-2-0
3.81
Shelbourne
2-0-0
3.96
1-1-0
2.93
2-0-0
4.75
2-0-0
4.77
0-0-2
4.39
2-0-0
4.17
2-0-0
4.91
0-1-1
2.38
 —
1-1-0
3.89
St. James Gate
0-1-1
3.25
0-1-1
1.84
1-1-0
3.78
1-1-0
3.87
1-0-1
3.39
1-0-1
2.18
1-0-1
4.60
0-2-0
1.79
0-1-1
1.70
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +4.7
Allowed 0.89 -4.6
Differential 0.96 +2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%4.44%3.33%5.56%1.11%3.89%22.78%
14.44%7.78%3.89%3.89%2.78%5.56%28.33%
23.33%3.89%3.33%2.22%—1.11%13.89%
35.56%3.89%2.22%3.33%0.56%1.11%16.67%
41.11%2.78%—0.56%——4.44%
5+3.89%5.56%1.11%1.11%—2.22%13.89%
Total22.78%28.33%13.89%16.67%4.44%13.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.89 +0.00
SD 1.86 1.86 2.92
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min -1 -1 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——11.11%—11.11%27.78%
116.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%—50.00%
2———————
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+—————11.11%11.11%
Total22.22%22.22%11.11%16.67%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.67 -0.94
SD 1.07 2.00 2.24
CV 1.49 1.20 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
15.56%16.67%————22.22%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+11.11%5.56%———11.11%27.78%
Total44.44%33.33%5.56%5.56%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 0.50 +1.61
SD 2.08 0.99 2.15
CV 0.99 1.97 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min -1 -1 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
1—11.11%—11.11%5.56%—27.78%
2—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
3—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%33.33%5.56%38.89%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.44 -1.28
SD 1.25 1.58 1.87
CV 1.07 0.65 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
15.56%————16.67%22.22%
2—5.56%5.56%——11.11%22.22%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%11.11%11.11%11.11%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 3.17 -1.83
SD 1.19 2.46 2.85
CV 0.89 0.78 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%33.33%
1———————
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
311.11%16.67%—5.56%——33.33%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%44.44%5.56%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.78 +0.17
SD 1.59 1.59 2.83
CV 0.82 0.90 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%11.11%—5.56%22.22%
1—5.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%—33.33%
211.11%—————11.11%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total16.67%22.22%27.78%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.94 +0.06
SD 1.94 1.39 2.90
CV 0.97 0.72 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%—5.56%27.78%
1——11.11%11.11%5.56%33.33%61.11%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———11.11%——11.11%
Total5.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%5.56%38.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 3.61 -2.44
SD 1.47 2.00 2.43
CV 1.26 0.55 —
Max 5 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
1—16.67%————16.67%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
316.67%—————16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+22.22%16.67%5.56%———44.44%
Total44.44%44.44%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.72 0.67 +3.06
SD 2.22 0.69 2.36
CV 0.60 1.03 —
Max 7 2 +6
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
15.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
311.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%16.67%————22.22%
Total27.78%38.89%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.06 1.11 +1.94
SD 2.21 0.90 2.62
CV 0.72 0.81 —
Max 8 3 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
111.11%5.56%——5.56%5.56%27.78%
25.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
3——5.56%11.11%—5.56%22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%16.67%22.22%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 2.00 -0.33
SD 1.37 1.94 2.11
CV 0.82 0.97 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shamrock Rovers 1381 31 25.74 +5.26 94.0% 16 20 24 26 28 32 34
Bohemian 1326 28 25.98 +2.02 80.0% 19 20 24 26 28 31 32
Shelbourne 1312 27 25.36 +1.64 73.0% 18 20 23 25 28 30 32
Jacobs 1063 17 18.37 -1.37 40.0% 10 13 16 18 20 23 28
Fordsons 1061 21 18.81 +2.19 83.0% 12 13 17 19 21 25 27
St. James Gate 971 17 18.84 -1.84 38.0% 8 14 16 19 21 24 26
Athlone Town 957 14 14.46 -0.46 49.0% 4 9 13 15 17 19 20
Bray Unknowns 856 9 11.91 -2.91 24.0% 7 8 10 11 14 16 20
Brooklyn FC 814 11 12.66 -1.66 34.0% 3 6 11 13 15 18 20
Pioneers 713 5 7.87 -2.87 19.0% 2 4 6 7 10 13 15

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.78%
No Edge
44.44%18.89%36.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 27.08 Elo pts.
119 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.16 goals
Neutral
-2+0.23+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.9
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
39%
Shamrock Rovers, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Comfortable
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.52 * Some Luck: 2.52 to 3.78 * Lucky: 3.78 to 5.03 * Wild Swing: 5.03 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.82 * Close: 0.82 to 1.23 * Off: 1.23 to 1.64 * Way Off: 1.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.53 points
Some Luck
03.158
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Pinpoint
01.032.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.00%
Shamrock Rovers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
19.00%
Pioneers
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 229.95
2.27
Wide Separation
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
89%
Wide Edge
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
43%
Few
0%39%100%
Blowouts
Expected
40%
Very Frequent
0%40%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.48
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Lopsided
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.65
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.80
Near-Lock
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.23
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.42
Very Underconfident
0.4586471.001.54135
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.090
Well Within Noise
00.1650.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Shamrock Rovers39.00%30.00%19.00%9.00%2.00%——1.00%——
Bohemian33.00%29.00%26.00%9.00%3.00%—————
Shelbourne28.00%30.00%31.00%9.00%2.00%—————
Fordsons—4.00%13.00%20.00%28.00%21.00%12.00%2.00%——
Jacobs—4.00%3.00%22.00%32.00%24.00%8.00%6.00%1.00%—
St. James Gate—3.00%8.00%24.00%25.00%18.00%17.00%4.00%1.00%—
Athlone Town———4.00%4.00%20.00%32.00%23.00%12.00%5.00%
Brooklyn FC———3.00%3.00%10.00%17.00%26.00%32.00%9.00%
Bray Unknowns————1.00%7.00%13.00%29.00%37.00%13.00%
Pioneers——————1.00%9.00%17.00%73.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Athlone Town 100%
Bohemian 100%
Bray Unknowns 100%
Brooklyn FC 100%
Fordsons 100%
Jacobs 100%
Pioneers 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
St. James Gate 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1924-09-06 St. James Gate D 3-361.6 1178 1070 59.11% 20.30% 20.59%+1.14 -2.5 1
1924-09-06 @ Bohemian D 3-361.6 1070 1178 20.59% 20.30% 59.11%-1.14 +2.5 1
1924-09-06 Brooklyn FC W 4-351.2 971 948 49.41% 20.46% 30.13%+0.42 +13.2 2
1924-09-06 @ Bray Unknowns L 3-451.2 948 971 30.13% 20.46% 49.41%-0.42 -13.2 0
1924-09-06 Shamrock Rovers L 1-444.3 1085 1096 45.00% 20.49% 34.51%+0.14 -48.3 0
1924-09-06 @ Jacobs W 4-144.3 1096 1085 34.51% 20.49% 45.00%-0.14 +48.3 2
1924-09-06 Pioneers W 5-130.6 1196 846 74.87% 19.15% 5.99%+3.18 +10.3 2
1924-09-06 @ Shelbourne L 1-530.6 846 1196 5.99% 19.15% 74.87%-3.18 -10.3 0
1924-09-13 Shelbourne L 0-335.5 1093 1207 30.80% 20.43% 48.77%-0.73 -42.0 0
1924-09-13 @ Athlone Town W 3-035.5 1207 1093 48.77% 20.43% 30.80%+0.73 +42.0 4
1924-09-13 Fordsons W 4-028.6 1175 971 67.22% 19.96% 12.82%+1.95 +25.6 3
1924-09-13 @ Bohemian L 0-428.6 971 1175 12.82% 19.96% 67.22%-1.95 -25.6 0
1924-09-13 Pioneers L 3-558.4 984 836 62.83% 20.18% 16.99%+1.47 -39.4 2
1924-09-13 @ Bray Unknowns W 5-358.4 836 984 16.99% 20.18% 62.83%-1.47 +39.4 2
1924-09-13 Jacobs W 3-146.6 935 1037 32.26% 20.44% 47.29%-0.63 +35.6 2
1924-09-13 @ Brooklyn FC L 1-346.6 1037 935 47.29% 20.44% 32.26%+0.63 -35.6 0
1924-09-13 Shamrock Rovers D 2-257.2 1072 1144 36.35% 20.47% 43.17%-0.38 +0.5 2
1924-09-13 @ St. James Gate D 2-257.2 1144 1072 43.17% 20.47% 36.35%+0.38 -0.5 3
1924-09-20 Bray Unknowns D 1-152.9 1051 944 58.95% 20.31% 20.74%+1.12 -4.1 1
1924-09-20 @ Athlone Town D 1-152.9 944 1051 20.74% 20.31% 58.95%-1.12 +4.1 3
1924-09-20 Pioneers W 4-136.3 1001 875 60.88% 20.25% 18.87%+1.29 +23.4 2
1924-09-20 @ Jacobs L 1-436.3 875 1001 18.87% 20.25% 60.88%-1.29 -23.4 2
1924-09-20 Bohemian W 1-038.6 1249 1201 52.52% 20.43% 27.05%+0.63 +13.8 6
1924-09-20 @ Shelbourne L 0-138.6 1201 1249 27.05% 20.43% 52.52%-0.63 -13.8 3
1924-09-21 St. James Gate W 4-145.9 945 1073 29.06% 20.40% 50.54%-0.85 +53.4 2
1924-09-21 @ Fordsons L 1-445.9 1073 945 50.54% 20.40% 29.06%+0.85 -53.4 2
1924-09-21 Brooklyn FC W 6-132.4 1144 970 64.94% 20.09% 14.98%+1.69 +30.1 5
1924-09-21 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-632.4 970 1144 14.98% 20.09% 64.94%-1.69 -30.1 2
1924-09-27 Bray Unknowns D 1-153.1 1187 948 69.43% 19.80% 10.77%+2.24 -6.6 4
1924-09-27 @ Bohemian D 1-153.1 948 1187 10.77% 19.80% 69.43%-2.24 +6.6 4
1924-09-27 Shelbourne W 2-047.4 998 1262 15.45% 19.98% 64.57%-2.00 +55.3 4
1924-09-27 @ Fordsons L 0-247.4 1262 998 64.57% 19.98% 15.45%+2.00 -55.2 6
1924-09-27 Shamrock Rovers L 1-730.4 852 1174 11.53% 19.70% 68.77%-2.49 -27.9 2
1924-09-27 @ Pioneers W 7-130.4 1174 852 68.77% 19.70% 11.53%+2.49 +27.9 7
1924-09-27 Brooklyn FC W 5-136.2 1019 940 56.09% 20.37% 23.54%+0.89 +36.6 4
1924-09-27 @ St. James Gate L 1-536.2 940 1019 23.54% 20.37% 56.09%-0.89 -36.6 2
1924-09-28 Jacobs L 0-341.0 1047 1025 49.30% 20.46% 30.24%+0.41 -62.0 1
1924-09-28 @ Athlone Town W 3-041.0 1025 1047 30.24% 20.46% 49.30%-0.41 +62.0 4
1924-10-04 Fordsons L 1-342.3 955 1054 32.77% 20.45% 46.79%-0.60 -26.4 4
1924-10-04 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-142.3 1054 955 46.79% 20.45% 32.77%+0.60 +26.4 6
1924-10-04 Pioneers W 3-033.2 904 824 56.16% 20.37% 23.47%+0.90 +33.5 4
1924-10-04 @ Brooklyn FC L 0-333.2 824 904 23.47% 20.37% 56.16%-0.90 -33.5 2
1924-10-04 Bohemian L 1-244.1 1087 1180 33.45% 20.45% 46.09%-0.56 -15.5 4
1924-10-04 @ Jacobs W 2-144.1 1180 1087 46.09% 20.45% 33.45%+0.56 +15.5 6
1924-10-05 Athlone Town W 6-027.7 1202 985 68.08% 19.90% 12.02%+2.06 +35.3 9
1924-10-05 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-627.7 985 1202 12.02% 19.90% 68.08%-2.06 -35.3 1
1924-10-05 St. James Gate D 3-361.6 1207 1056 63.12% 20.17% 16.71%+1.50 -3.1 7
1924-10-05 @ Shelbourne D 3-361.6 1056 1207 16.71% 20.17% 63.12%-1.50 +3.1 5
1924-10-11 Brooklyn FC D 0-049.8 949 937 48.07% 20.47% 31.46%+0.33 -1.9 2
1924-10-11 @ Athlone Town D 0-049.8 937 949 31.46% 20.47% 48.07%-0.33 +1.9 5
1924-10-11 Shamrock Rovers D 1-153.1 1196 1237 40.71% 20.49% 38.80%-0.12 -0.2 7
1924-10-11 @ Bohemian D 1-153.1 1237 1196 38.80% 20.49% 40.71%+0.12 +0.2 10
1924-10-11 Jacobs W 3-035.8 1080 1071 47.59% 20.47% 31.93%+0.30 +43.3 8
1924-10-11 @ Fordsons L 0-335.8 1071 1080 31.93% 20.47% 47.59%-0.30 -43.3 4
1924-10-11 Bray Unknowns W 3-028.6 1204 929 71.51% 19.61% 8.89%+2.55 +13.9 9
1924-10-11 @ Shelbourne L 0-328.6 929 1204 8.89% 19.61% 71.51%-2.55 -13.9 4
1924-10-11 Pioneers W 1-032.7 1059 790 71.15% 19.64% 9.21%+2.49 +5.2 7
1924-10-11 @ St. James Gate L 0-132.7 790 1059 9.21% 19.64% 71.15%-2.49 -5.3 2
1924-10-18 St. James Gate L 0-138.1 915 1064 26.46% 20.36% 53.19%-1.03 -13.5 4
1924-10-18 @ Bray Unknowns W 1-038.1 1064 915 53.19% 20.36% 26.46%+1.03 +13.5 9
1924-10-18 Bohemian L 0-429.6 939 1196 16.02% 20.01% 63.96%-1.93 -31.3 5
1924-10-18 @ Brooklyn FC W 4-029.6 1196 939 63.96% 20.01% 16.02%+1.93 +31.3 9
1924-10-18 Shelbourne L 1-339.1 1028 1218 22.04% 20.25% 57.71%-1.37 -18.9 4
1924-10-18 @ Jacobs W 3-139.1 1218 1028 57.71% 20.25% 22.04%+1.37 +18.9 11
1924-10-18 Athlone Town L 1-339.9 785 948 24.97% 20.33% 54.70%-1.14 -21.0 2
1924-10-18 @ Pioneers W 3-139.9 948 785 54.70% 20.33% 24.97%+1.14 +21.0 4
1924-10-19 Fordsons W 3-032.3 1237 1123 59.69% 20.29% 20.02%+1.19 +29.2 12
1924-10-19 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-332.3 1123 1237 20.02% 20.29% 59.69%-1.19 -29.2 8
1924-10-25 Pioneers D 0-050.5 1227 764 78.42% 18.30% 3.27%+4.13 -9.8 10
1924-10-25 @ Bohemian D 0-050.5 764 1227 3.27% 18.30% 78.42%-4.13 +9.8 3
1924-10-25 Jacobs L 1-440.2 901 1009 31.56% 20.43% 48.01%-0.68 -36.2 4
1924-10-25 @ Bray Unknowns W 4-140.2 1009 901 48.01% 20.43% 31.56%+0.68 +36.2 6
1924-10-25 Brooklyn FC D 3-361.6 1094 908 65.93% 20.04% 14.03%+1.80 -3.6 9
1924-10-25 @ Fordsons D 3-361.6 908 1094 14.03% 20.04% 65.93%-1.80 +3.6 6
1924-10-25 Shamrock Rovers L 1-247.2 1237 1266 42.37% 20.49% 37.14%-0.02 -18.7 11
1924-10-25 @ Shelbourne W 2-147.2 1266 1237 37.14% 20.49% 42.37%+0.02 +18.7 14
1924-10-25 Athlone Town D 1-152.9 1078 969 59.22% 20.30% 20.48%+1.15 -4.1 10
1924-10-25 @ St. James Gate D 1-152.9 969 1078 20.48% 20.30% 59.22%-1.15 +4.1 5
1924-11-01 Bohemian FL48.4 973 1217 17.02% 20.06% 62.92%-1.83 +0.0 5
1924-11-01 @ Athlone Town FW48.4 1217 973 62.92% 20.06% 17.02%+1.83 +0.0 12
1924-11-01 Shelbourne L 0-231.6 911 1218 12.46% 19.78% 67.76%-2.36 -13.1 6
1924-11-01 @ Brooklyn FC W 2-031.6 1218 911 67.76% 19.78% 12.46%+2.36 +13.1 13
1924-11-01 Fordsons L 1-532.5 774 1091 11.85% 19.73% 68.42%-2.44 -19.8 3
1924-11-01 @ Pioneers W 5-132.5 1091 774 68.42% 19.73% 11.85%+2.44 +19.8 11
1924-11-01 Bray Unknowns W 6-025.0 1285 865 77.24% 18.64% 4.12%+3.77 +12.5 16
1924-11-01 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-625.0 865 1285 4.12% 18.64% 77.24%-3.77 -12.5 4
1924-11-08 Fordsons W 1-045.7 973 1110 27.84% 20.38% 51.78%-0.93 +23.6 7
1924-11-08 @ Athlone Town L 0-145.7 1110 973 51.78% 20.38% 27.84%+0.93 -23.6 11
1924-11-08 Bray Unknowns W 1-038.4 898 853 52.24% 20.43% 27.33%+0.61 +13.9 8
1924-11-08 @ Brooklyn FC L 0-138.4 853 898 27.33% 20.43% 52.24%-0.61 -13.9 4
1924-11-08 Shelbourne L 1-629.0 754 1231 5.11% 18.70% 76.19%-3.79 -10.8 3
1924-11-08 @ Pioneers W 6-129.0 1231 754 76.19% 18.70% 5.11%+3.79 +10.8 15
1924-11-08 Jacobs W 3-029.1 1298 1045 70.26% 19.73% 10.01%+2.36 +15.6 18
1924-11-08 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-329.1 1045 1298 10.01% 19.73% 70.26%-2.36 -15.6 6
1924-11-08 Bohemian L 0-138.4 1074 1217 27.16% 20.37% 52.47%-0.98 -13.8 10
1924-11-08 @ St. James Gate W 1-038.4 1217 1074 52.47% 20.37% 27.16%+0.98 +13.8 14
1924-11-15 Bohemian L 0-334.4 1087 1231 27.08% 20.37% 52.55%-0.99 -37.8 11
1924-11-15 @ Fordsons W 3-034.4 1231 1087 52.55% 20.37% 27.08%+0.99 +37.8 16
1924-11-15 Brooklyn FC W 6-237.9 1030 912 60.05% 20.28% 19.67%+1.22 +26.6 8
1924-11-15 @ Jacobs L 2-637.9 912 1030 19.67% 20.28% 60.05%-1.22 -26.6 8
1924-11-15 Bray Unknowns L 1-243.9 743 839 33.20% 20.45% 46.35%-0.57 -15.4 3
1924-11-15 @ Pioneers W 2-143.9 839 743 46.35% 20.45% 33.20%+0.57 +15.4 6
1924-11-15 St. James Gate D 0-050.2 1313 1060 70.32% 19.72% 9.95%+2.36 -7.6 19
1924-11-15 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-050.2 1060 1313 9.95% 19.72% 70.32%-2.36 +7.6 11
1924-11-15 Athlone Town W 4-133.7 1242 996 69.86% 19.77% 10.38%+2.30 +13.6 17
1924-11-15 @ Shelbourne L 1-433.7 996 1242 10.38% 19.77% 69.86%-2.30 -13.6 7
1924-11-22 Shelbourne D 2-257.7 1269 1256 48.16% 20.47% 31.37%+0.34 -1.3 17
1924-11-22 @ Bohemian D 2-257.7 1256 1269 31.37% 20.47% 48.16%-0.34 +1.3 18
1924-11-22 Athlone Town W 3-147.6 854 983 28.93% 20.40% 50.67%-0.86 +37.9 8
1924-11-22 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-347.6 983 854 50.67% 20.40% 28.93%+0.86 -37.9 7
1924-11-22 Shamrock Rovers L 2-633.8 886 1306 6.91% 19.11% 73.98%-3.31 -10.0 8
1924-11-22 @ Brooklyn FC W 6-233.8 1306 886 73.98% 19.11% 6.91%+3.31 +10.0 21
1924-11-22 Jacobs L 1-631.1 728 1056 11.16% 19.67% 69.17%-2.54 -22.9 3
1924-11-22 @ Pioneers W 6-131.1 1056 728 69.17% 19.67% 11.16%+2.54 +22.9 10
1924-11-23 Fordsons W 3-247.7 1067 1049 48.85% 20.47% 30.68%+0.38 +13.7 13
1924-11-23 @ St. James Gate L 2-347.7 1049 1067 30.68% 20.47% 48.85%-0.38 -13.7 11
1924-11-29 Bohemian L 0-230.4 892 1267 8.75% 19.40% 71.86%-2.93 -9.4 8
1924-11-29 @ Bray Unknowns W 2-030.4 1267 892 71.86% 19.40% 8.75%+2.93 +9.4 19
1924-11-29 St. James Gate D 2-257.3 875 1081 20.48% 20.20% 59.31%-1.50 +3.1 9
1924-11-29 @ Brooklyn FC D 2-257.3 1081 875 59.31% 20.20% 20.48%+1.50 -3.1 14
1924-11-29 Fordsons L 1-254.4 1257 1035 68.37% 19.88% 11.75%+2.09 -29.4 18
1924-11-29 @ Shelbourne W 2-154.4 1035 1257 11.75% 19.88% 68.37%-2.09 +29.4 13
1924-11-30 Athlone Town D 1-152.9 1079 945 61.61% 20.23% 18.16%+1.36 -4.7 11
1924-11-30 @ Jacobs D 1-152.9 945 1079 18.16% 20.23% 61.61%-1.36 +4.7 8
1924-11-30 Pioneers W 5-128.6 1316 705 81.55% 16.98% 1.47%+5.37 +2.5 23
1924-11-30 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-528.6 705 1316 1.47% 16.98% 81.55%-5.37 -2.5 3
1924-12-06 Jacobs W 5-028.2 1277 1074 67.07% 19.97% 12.96%+1.93 +31.9 21
1924-12-06 @ Bohemian L 0-528.2 1074 1277 12.96% 19.97% 67.07%-1.93 -31.9 11
1924-12-06 Bray Unknowns W 3-136.6 1065 883 65.60% 20.06% 14.34%+1.76 +12.9 15
1924-12-06 @ Fordsons L 1-336.6 883 1065 14.34% 20.06% 65.60%-1.76 -12.9 8
1924-12-06 Brooklyn FC L 1-241.0 703 879 23.49% 20.29% 56.21%-1.25 -11.5 3
1924-12-06 @ Pioneers W 2-141.0 879 703 56.21% 20.29% 23.49%+1.25 +11.5 11
1924-12-06 Shelbourne L 1-735.1 1078 1227 26.45% 20.36% 53.19%-1.03 -58.4 14
1924-12-06 @ St. James Gate W 7-135.1 1227 1078 53.19% 20.36% 26.45%+1.03 +58.4 20
1924-12-07 Shamrock Rovers L 0-526.8 950 1318 9.06% 19.44% 71.50%-2.88 -22.7 8
1924-12-07 @ Athlone Town W 5-026.8 1318 950 71.50% 19.44% 9.06%+2.88 +22.7 25
1924-12-13 Shelbourne L 2-340.3 870 1286 7.06% 19.13% 73.81%-3.28 -3.6 8
1924-12-13 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-240.3 1286 870 73.81% 19.13% 7.06%+3.28 +3.6 22
1924-12-13 Athlone Town L 0-142.6 890 927 41.36% 20.49% 38.15%-0.08 -19.5 11
1924-12-13 @ Brooklyn FC W 1-042.6 927 890 38.15% 20.49% 41.36%+0.08 +19.5 10
1924-12-13 Fordsons W 2-039.5 1043 1078 41.62% 20.49% 37.89%-0.07 +34.3 13
1924-12-13 @ Jacobs L 0-239.5 1078 1043 37.89% 20.49% 41.62%+0.07 -34.3 15
1924-12-13 St. James Gate W 5-360.1 691 1020 11.15% 19.67% 69.18%-2.54 +43.5 5
1924-12-13 @ Pioneers L 3-560.1 1020 691 69.18% 19.67% 11.15%+2.54 -43.5 14
1924-12-13 Bohemian D 1-154.2 1341 1309 50.61% 20.45% 28.94%+0.50 -2.2 26
1924-12-13 @ Shamrock Rovers D 1-154.2 1309 1341 28.94% 20.45% 50.61%-0.50 +2.2 22
1924-12-20 Pioneers W 1-033.7 946 735 67.73% 19.93% 12.34%+2.01 +6.9 12
1924-12-20 @ Athlone Town L 0-133.7 735 946 12.34% 19.93% 67.73%-2.01 -6.9 5
1924-12-20 Brooklyn FC W 5-129.7 1311 871 77.82% 18.49% 3.70%+3.94 +6.4 24
1924-12-20 @ Bohemian L 1-529.7 871 1311 3.70% 18.49% 77.82%-3.94 -6.4 11
1924-12-20 Jacobs W 2-137.7 1289 1077 67.78% 19.93% 12.29%+2.02 +6.5 24
1924-12-20 @ Shelbourne L 1-237.7 1077 1289 12.29% 19.93% 67.78%-2.02 -6.5 13
1924-12-20 Bray Unknowns D 0-049.8 976 866 59.32% 20.30% 20.38%+1.16 -4.6 15
1924-12-20 @ St. James Gate D 0-049.8 866 976 20.38% 20.30% 59.32%-1.16 +4.6 9
1924-12-21 Shamrock Rovers L 0-628.2 1043 1339 13.20% 19.84% 66.96%-2.26 -38.4 15
1924-12-21 @ Fordsons W 6-028.2 1339 1043 66.96% 19.84% 13.20%+2.26 +38.4 28
1924-12-26 St. James Gate W 3-249.2 953 971 43.97% 20.49% 35.54%+0.08 +15.4 14
1924-12-26 @ Athlone Town L 2-349.2 971 953 35.54% 20.49% 43.97%-0.08 -15.4 15
1924-12-26 Shelbourne D 1-154.4 1377 1296 56.31% 20.37% 23.32%+0.91 -3.5 29
1924-12-26 @ Shamrock Rovers D 1-154.4 1296 1377 23.32% 20.37% 56.31%-0.91 +3.5 25
1924-12-27 Bohemian L 0-624.3 728 1317 2.80% 17.77% 79.43%-4.74 -8.4 5
1924-12-27 @ Pioneers W 6-024.3 1317 728 79.43% 17.77% 2.80%+4.74 +8.4 26
1924-12-28 Fordsons L 0-334.4 864 1005 27.47% 20.38% 52.15%-0.96 -38.2 11
1924-12-28 @ Brooklyn FC W 3-034.4 1005 864 52.15% 20.38% 27.47%+0.96 +38.2 17
1925-01-10 Athlone Town FW48.7 1326 969 75.12% 19.10% 5.78%+3.23 +0.0 28
1925-01-10 @ Bohemian FL48.7 969 1326 5.78% 19.10% 75.12%-3.23 +0.0 14
1925-01-10 Shamrock Rovers L 0-327.0 871 1374 4.45% 18.50% 77.05%-4.01 -7.0 9
1925-01-10 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-027.0 1374 871 77.05% 18.50% 4.45%+4.01 +7.0 31
1925-01-10 Brooklyn FC W 8-025.2 1299 826 78.69% 18.22% 3.09%+4.22 +12.3 27
1925-01-10 @ Shelbourne L 0-825.2 826 1299 3.09% 18.22% 78.69%-4.22 -12.3 11
1925-01-10 Jacobs W 2-042.7 956 1070 30.72% 20.43% 48.85%-0.74 +42.3 17
1925-01-10 @ St. James Gate L 0-242.7 1070 956 48.85% 20.43% 30.72%+0.74 -42.3 13
1925-04-04 Pioneers W 3-134.2 1043 719 73.80% 19.32% 6.88%+2.96 +6.5 19
1925-04-04 @ Fordsons L 1-334.2 719 1043 6.88% 19.32% 73.80%-2.96 -6.5 5
1925-04-11 Bray Unknowns W 3-243.1 1028 864 64.21% 20.12% 15.66%+1.61 +7.7 15
1925-04-11 @ Jacobs L 2-343.1 864 1028 15.66% 20.12% 64.21%-1.61 -7.7 9
1925-04-19 St. James Gate W 2-036.6 1036 998 51.24% 20.44% 28.31%+0.54 +27.0 17
1925-04-19 @ Jacobs L 0-236.6 998 1036 28.31% 20.44% 51.24%-0.54 -27.0 17
1925-04-25 Athlone Town W 2-141.0 1050 969 56.29% 20.37% 23.35%+0.91 +11.5 21
1925-04-25 @ Fordsons L 1-241.0 969 1050 23.35% 20.37% 56.29%-0.91 -11.5 14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1924-12-13 11.15% @ Pioneers 691 5 St. James Gate 1020 3
2 1924-11-29 11.75% Fordsons 1035 2 @ Shelbourne 1257 1
3 1924-09-27 15.45% @ Fordsons 998 2 Shelbourne 1262 0
4 1924-09-13 16.99% Pioneers 836 5 @ Bray Unknowns 984 3
5 1924-11-08 27.84% @ Athlone Town 973 1 Fordsons 1110 0
6 1924-11-22 28.93% @ Bray Unknowns 854 3 Athlone Town 983 1
7 1924-09-21 29.06% @ Fordsons 945 4 St. James Gate 1073 1
8 1924-09-28 30.24% Jacobs 1025 3 @ Athlone Town 1047 0
9 1925-01-10 30.72% @ St. James Gate 956 2 Jacobs 1070 0
10 1924-09-13 32.26% @ Brooklyn FC 935 3 Jacobs 1037 1
11 1924-09-06 34.51% Shamrock Rovers 1096 4 @ Jacobs 1085 1
12 1924-10-25 37.14% Shamrock Rovers 1266 2 @ Shelbourne 1237 1
13 1924-12-13 38.15% Athlone Town 927 1 @ Brooklyn FC 890 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1924-09-28 61.98 Jacobs 3 1025 30.24% @ Athlone Town 0 1047 49.30% 20.46%
2 1924-12-06 58.43 Shelbourne 7 1227 53.19% @ St. James Gate 1 1078 26.45% 20.36%
3 1924-09-27 55.25 @ Fordsons 2 998 15.45% Shelbourne 0 1262 64.57% 19.98%
4 1924-09-21 53.42 @ Fordsons 4 945 29.06% St. James Gate 1 1073 50.54% 20.40%
5 1924-09-06 48.28 Shamrock Rovers 4 1096 34.51% @ Jacobs 1 1085 45.00% 20.49%
6 1924-12-13 43.46 @ Pioneers 5 691 11.15% St. James Gate 3 1020 69.18% 19.67%
7 1924-10-11 43.33 @ Fordsons 3 1080 47.59% Jacobs 0 1071 31.93% 20.47%
8 1925-01-10 42.31 @ St. James Gate 2 956 30.72% Jacobs 0 1070 48.85% 20.43%
9 1924-09-13 42.05 Shelbourne 3 1207 48.77% @ Athlone Town 0 1093 30.80% 20.43%
10 1924-09-13 39.37 Pioneers 5 836 16.99% @ Bray Unknowns 3 984 62.83% 20.18%
11 1924-12-21 38.39 Shamrock Rovers 6 1339 66.96% @ Fordsons 0 1043 13.20% 19.84%
12 1924-12-28 38.23 Fordsons 3 1005 52.15% @ Brooklyn FC 0 864 27.47% 20.38%
13 1924-11-22 37.86 @ Bray Unknowns 3 854 28.93% Athlone Town 1 983 50.67% 20.40%
14 1924-11-15 37.77 Bohemian 3 1231 52.55% @ Fordsons 0 1087 27.08% 20.37%
15 1924-09-27 36.56 @ St. James Gate 5 1019 56.09% Brooklyn FC 1 940 23.54% 20.37%
16 1924-10-25 36.17 Jacobs 4 1009 48.01% @ Bray Unknowns 1 901 31.56% 20.43%
17 1924-09-13 35.62 @ Brooklyn FC 3 935 32.26% Jacobs 1 1037 47.29% 20.44%
18 1924-10-05 35.32 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1202 68.08% Athlone Town 0 985 12.02% 19.90%
19 1924-12-13 34.26 @ Jacobs 2 1043 41.62% Fordsons 0 1078 37.89% 20.49%
20 1924-10-04 33.50 @ Brooklyn FC 3 904 56.16% Pioneers 0 824 23.47% 20.37%
21 1924-12-06 31.87 @ Bohemian 5 1277 67.07% Jacobs 0 1074 12.96% 19.97%
22 1924-10-18 31.26 Bohemian 4 1196 63.96% @ Brooklyn FC 0 939 16.02% 20.01%
23 1924-09-21 30.10 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1144 64.94% Brooklyn FC 1 970 14.98% 20.09%
24 1924-11-29 29.38 Fordsons 2 1035 11.75% @ Shelbourne 1 1257 68.37% 19.88%
25 1924-10-19 29.21 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1237 59.69% Fordsons 0 1123 20.02% 20.29%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1924-09-06 61.6 @ Bohemian 3 1178 59.11% St. James Gate 3 1070 20.59% 20.30%
2 1924-10-05 61.6 @ Shelbourne 3 1207 63.12% St. James Gate 3 1056 16.71% 20.17%
3 1924-10-25 61.6 @ Fordsons 3 1094 65.93% Brooklyn FC 3 908 14.03% 20.04%
4 1924-12-13 60.1 @ Pioneers 5 691 11.15% St. James Gate 3 1020 69.18% 19.67%
5 1924-09-13 58.4 Pioneers 5 836 16.99% @ Bray Unknowns 3 984 62.83% 20.18%
6 1924-11-22 57.7 @ Bohemian 2 1269 48.16% Shelbourne 2 1256 31.37% 20.47%
7 1924-11-29 57.3 @ Brooklyn FC 2 875 20.48% St. James Gate 2 1081 59.31% 20.20%
8 1924-09-13 57.2 @ St. James Gate 2 1072 36.35% Shamrock Rovers 2 1144 43.17% 20.47%
9 1924-11-29 54.4 Fordsons 2 1035 11.75% @ Shelbourne 1 1257 68.37% 19.88%
10 1924-12-26 54.4 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1377 56.31% Shelbourne 1 1296 23.32% 20.37%
11 1924-12-13 54.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1341 50.61% Bohemian 1 1309 28.94% 20.45%
12 1924-09-27 53.1 @ Bohemian 1 1187 69.43% Bray Unknowns 1 948 10.77% 19.80%
13 1924-10-11 53.1 @ Bohemian 1 1196 40.71% Shamrock Rovers 1 1237 38.80% 20.49%
14 1924-09-20 52.9 @ Athlone Town 1 1051 58.95% Bray Unknowns 1 944 20.74% 20.31%
15 1924-10-25 52.9 @ St. James Gate 1 1078 59.22% Athlone Town 1 969 20.48% 20.30%
16 1924-11-30 52.9 @ Jacobs 1 1079 61.61% Athlone Town 1 945 18.16% 20.23%
17 1924-09-06 51.2 @ Bray Unknowns 4 971 49.41% Brooklyn FC 3 948 30.13% 20.46%
18 1924-10-25 50.5 @ Bohemian 0 1227 78.42% Pioneers 0 764 3.27% 18.30%
19 1924-11-15 50.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1313 70.32% St. James Gate 0 1060 9.95% 19.72%
20 1924-10-11 49.8 @ Athlone Town 0 949 48.07% Brooklyn FC 0 937 31.46% 20.47%
21 1924-12-20 49.8 @ St. James Gate 0 976 59.32% Bray Unknowns 0 866 20.38% 20.30%
22 1924-12-26 49.2 @ Athlone Town 3 953 43.97% St. James Gate 2 971 35.54% 20.49%
23 1924-11-23 47.7 @ St. James Gate 3 1067 48.85% Fordsons 2 1049 30.68% 20.47%
24 1924-11-22 47.6 @ Bray Unknowns 3 854 28.93% Athlone Town 1 983 50.67% 20.40%
25 1924-09-27 47.4 @ Fordsons 2 998 15.45% Shelbourne 0 1262 64.57% 19.98%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1924-12-27 24.3 Bohemian 6 1317 79.43% @ Pioneers 0 728 2.80% 17.77%
2 1924-11-01 25.0 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1285 77.24% Bray Unknowns 0 865 4.12% 18.64%
3 1925-01-10 25.2 @ Shelbourne 8 1299 78.69% Brooklyn FC 0 826 3.09% 18.22%
4 1924-12-07 26.8 Shamrock Rovers 5 1318 71.50% @ Athlone Town 0 950 9.06% 19.44%
5 1925-01-10 27.0 Shamrock Rovers 3 1374 77.05% @ Bray Unknowns 0 871 4.45% 18.50%
6 1924-10-05 27.7 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1202 68.08% Athlone Town 0 985 12.02% 19.90%
7 1924-12-06 28.2 @ Bohemian 5 1277 67.07% Jacobs 0 1074 12.96% 19.97%
8 1924-12-21 28.2 Shamrock Rovers 6 1339 66.96% @ Fordsons 0 1043 13.20% 19.84%
9 1924-09-13 28.6 @ Bohemian 4 1175 67.22% Fordsons 0 971 12.82% 19.96%
10 1924-10-11 28.6 @ Shelbourne 3 1204 71.51% Bray Unknowns 0 929 8.89% 19.61%
11 1924-11-30 28.6 @ Shamrock Rovers 5 1316 81.55% Pioneers 1 705 1.47% 16.98%
12 1924-11-08 29.0 Shelbourne 6 1231 76.19% @ Pioneers 1 754 5.11% 18.70%
13 1924-11-08 29.1 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1298 70.26% Jacobs 0 1045 10.01% 19.73%
14 1924-10-18 29.6 Bohemian 4 1196 63.96% @ Brooklyn FC 0 939 16.02% 20.01%
15 1924-12-20 29.7 @ Bohemian 5 1311 77.82% Brooklyn FC 1 871 3.70% 18.49%
16 1924-09-27 30.4 Shamrock Rovers 7 1174 68.77% @ Pioneers 1 852 11.53% 19.70%
17 1924-11-29 30.4 Bohemian 2 1267 71.86% @ Bray Unknowns 0 892 8.75% 19.40%
18 1924-09-06 30.6 @ Shelbourne 5 1196 74.87% Pioneers 1 846 5.99% 19.15%
19 1924-11-22 31.1 Jacobs 6 1056 69.17% @ Pioneers 1 728 11.16% 19.67%
20 1924-11-01 31.6 Shelbourne 2 1218 67.76% @ Brooklyn FC 0 911 12.46% 19.78%
21 1924-10-19 32.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1237 59.69% Fordsons 0 1123 20.02% 20.29%
22 1924-09-21 32.4 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1144 64.94% Brooklyn FC 1 970 14.98% 20.09%
23 1924-11-01 32.5 Fordsons 5 1091 68.42% @ Pioneers 1 774 11.85% 19.73%
24 1924-10-11 32.7 @ St. James Gate 1 1059 71.15% Pioneers 0 790 9.21% 19.64%
25 1924-10-04 33.2 @ Brooklyn FC 3 904 56.16% Pioneers 0 824 23.47% 20.37%