1925-26 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Shelbourne

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Shelbourne

4.36 points above expected

31 points · 26.64 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Pioneers

5.17 points below expected

2 points · 7.17 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Shelbourne	18	14	3	1	31	65	23	+42	26.64	+4.36
2	Shamrock Rovers	18	13	3	2	29	62	21	+41	26.95	+2.05
3	Fordsons	18	12	1	5	25	56	31	+25	22.66	+2.34
4	Bohemian*	18	10	2	6	20	50	28	+22	23.31	-3.31
5	Jacobs	18	7	4	7	18	40	48	-8	17.67	+0.33
6	Brideville	18	6	4	8	16	36	53	-17	14.87	+1.13
7	Athlone Town	18	7	1	10	15	46	56	-10	15.72	-0.72
8	St. James Gate	18	4	3	11	11	33	48	-15	14.20	-3.20
9	Bray Unknowns	18	4	3	11	11	34	55	-21	10.81	+0.19
10	Pioneers	18	1	0	17	2	21	80	-59	7.17	-5.17

* Point deductions: Bohemian (-2 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Shelbourne	31	26.64	+4.36
2	Fordsons	25	22.66	+2.34
3	Shamrock Rovers	29	26.95	+2.05
4	Brideville	16	14.87	+1.13
5	Jacobs	18	17.67	+0.33

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Pioneers	2	7.17	-5.17
2	Bohemian	20	23.31	-3.31
3	St. James Gate	11	14.20	-3.20
4	Athlone Town	15	15.72	-0.72
5	Bray Unknowns	11	10.81	+0.19

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fordsons	4	Aug 30 – Sep 19	1 in 32
2	Athlone Town	4	Sep 19 – Oct 10	1 in 28
3	Shelbourne	6	Sep 26 – Oct 24	1 in 22
4	Bray Unknowns	2	Nov 21 – Nov 28	1 in 13
5	Jacobs	2	Oct 17 – Oct 25	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pioneers	16	Sep 12 – Jan 3	1 in 163
2	Bray Unknowns	8	Aug 29 – Oct 17	1 in 35
3	St. James Gate	4	Oct 10 – Oct 31	1 in 20
4	Athlone Town	4	Nov 7 – Nov 28	1 in 19
5	Bohemian	2	Oct 17 – Oct 24	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Shelbourne	15	Sep 26 – Jan 2	1 in 41
2	Brideville	5	Dec 6 – Jan 3	1 in 34
3	St. James Gate	4	Sep 12 – Oct 3	1 in 29
4	Bray Unknowns	3	Nov 14 – Nov 28	1 in 19
5	Fordsons	4	Aug 30 – Sep 19	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Shamrock Rovers	2	Dec 26 – Jan 3	1 in 14
2	Bohemian	2	Sep 12 – Sep 19	1 in 14
3	Brideville	8	Oct 24 – Dec 19	1 in 11
4	Pioneers	16	Sep 12 – Jan 3	1 in 11
5	Athlone Town	5	Nov 7 – Dec 6	1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Shelbourne	1149	31	+20	9	7.1	+1.9
Shamrock Rovers	1160	29	-15	6	7.6	-1.6
Fordsons	989	25	-2	5	6.4	-1.4
Bohemian	1065	22	-3	5	5.9	-0.9
Jacobs	862	18	-5	6	5.5	+0.5
Brideville	770	16	+15	7	4.6	+2.4
Athlone Town	812	15	-4	3	3.8	-0.8
Bray Unknowns	743	11	+1	4	3.3	+0.7
St. James Gate	763	11	-25	3	4.3	-1.3
Pioneers	555	2	-18	0	1.7	-1.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AT	BOH	BU	BRI	FOR	JAC	PIO	SR	SHE	SJG
Athlone Town	—	0-0-2 1.30	1-0-1 3.67	1-1-0 3.09	0-0-2 1.97	1-0-1 2.39	2-0-0 4.31	0-0-2 0.93	0-0-2 0.98	2-0-0 2.94
Bohemian	2-0-0 4.42	—	2-0-0 4.87	1-0-1 4.60	1-0-1 3.70	0-1-1 4.37	2-0-0 5.18	1-0-1 2.01	0-0-2 2.57	1-1-0 4.58
Bray Unknowns	1-0-1 2.05	0-0-2 0.87	—	1-0-1 2.11	0-1-1 1.22	0-1-1 1.71	2-0-0 3.73	0-1-1 0.68	0-0-2 0.67	0-0-2 2.21
Brideville	0-1-1 2.63	1-0-1 1.13	1-0-1 3.61	—	1-0-1 1.53	1-1-0 2.27	1-0-1 4.17	0-0-2 0.84	0-1-1 1.11	1-1-0 2.76
Fordsons	2-0-0 3.75	1-0-1 2.02	1-1-0 4.51	1-0-1 4.19	—	2-0-0 3.24	2-0-0 4.82	0-0-2 1.53	1-0-1 1.69	2-0-0 3.66
Jacobs	1-0-1 3.32	1-1-0 1.35	1-1-0 4.01	0-1-1 3.45	0-0-2 2.48	—	2-0-0 4.58	0-0-2 1.11	0-1-1 1.43	2-0-0 3.33
Pioneers	0-0-2 1.42	0-0-2 0.57	0-0-2 1.99	1-0-1 1.55	0-0-2 0.91	0-0-2 1.15	—	0-0-2 0.41	0-0-2 0.52	0-0-2 1.57
Shamrock Rovers	2-0-0 4.80	1-0-1 3.71	1-1-0 5.06	2-0-0 4.89	2-0-0 4.20	2-0-0 4.62	2-0-0 5.35	—	0-1-1 3.22	1-1-0 4.88
Shelbourne	2-0-0 4.75	2-0-0 3.15	2-0-0 5.07	1-1-0 4.62	1-0-1 4.03	1-1-0 4.30	2-0-0 5.22	1-1-0 2.50	—	2-0-0 4.82
St. James Gate	0-0-2 2.78	0-1-1 1.14	2-0-0 3.51	0-1-1 2.96	0-0-2 2.06	0-0-2 2.39	2-0-0 4.15	0-1-1 0.85	0-0-2 0.91	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.95	+6.1
Allowed	0.88	-4.5
Differential	0.94	+2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	0.56%	4.44%	2.22%	1.11%	4.44%	12.78%
1	0.56%	4.44%	3.89%	3.89%	6.11%	2.22%	21.11%
2	4.44%	3.89%	5.56%	4.44%	2.78%	3.89%	25.00%
3	2.22%	3.89%	4.44%	2.22%	1.11%	1.67%	15.56%
4	1.11%	6.11%	2.78%	1.11%	1.11%	—	12.22%
5+	4.44%	2.22%	3.89%	1.67%	—	1.11%	13.33%
Total	12.78%	21.11%	25.00%	15.56%	12.22%	13.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.46	2.46	+0.00
SD	1.87	1.87	3.05
CV	0.76	0.76	—
Max	10	10	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
Total	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	33.33%	11.11%	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.56	3.11	-0.56
SD	1.58	1.68	2.41
CV	0.62	0.54	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
Total	22.22%	22.22%	38.89%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.78	1.56	+1.22
SD	2.26	1.15	2.71
CV	0.81	0.74	—
Max	7	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
1	—	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	27.78%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	—	38.89%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	33.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	3.06	-1.17
SD	1.64	2.04	2.85
CV	0.87	0.67	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	1	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	2.94	-0.94
SD	1.28	1.86	2.51
CV	0.64	0.63	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
Total	22.22%	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.11	1.72	+1.39
SD	2.27	1.41	2.70
CV	0.73	0.82	—
Max	7	5	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	27.78%	5.56%	33.33%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.22	2.67	-0.44
SD	1.59	1.94	2.94
CV	0.72	0.73	—
Max	5	8	+3
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	38.89%
1	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	27.78%	38.89%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	4.44	-3.28
SD	1.15	2.23	2.52
CV	0.99	0.50	—
Max	3	10	+1
Min	0	1	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	—	22.22%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	27.78%	38.89%	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.44	1.17	+2.28
SD	2.15	0.99	2.44
CV	0.62	0.84	—
Max	10	3	+8
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
2	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	22.22%	—	—	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	27.78%	33.33%	33.33%	—	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.61	1.28	+2.33
SD	1.94	1.23	2.89
CV	0.54	0.96	—
Max	8	5	+8
Min	1	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	11.11%	27.78%	27.78%	22.22%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	2.67	-0.83
SD	1.20	1.28	2.04
CV	0.65	0.48	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Shamrock Rovers	1160	29	26.95	+2.05	79.0%	20	21	25	27	29	31	33
Shelbourne	1149	31	26.64	+4.36	95.0%	16	19	25	27	29	31	34
Bohemian	1065	20	23.31	-3.31	19.0%	16	18	21	23	25	28	29
Fordsons	989	25	22.66	+2.34	87.0%	13	16	21	23	25	29	30
Jacobs	862	18	17.67	+0.33	59.0%	11	12	15	18	20	23	25
Athlone Town	812	15	15.72	-0.72	47.0%	7	9	13	16	18	21	23
Brideville	770	16	14.87	+1.13	67.0%	5	9	13	15	17	19	23
St. James Gate	763	11	14.20	-3.20	18.0%	6	9	12	14	16	20	23
Bray Unknowns	743	11	10.81	+0.19	61.0%	4	6	8	10	13	16	23
Pioneers	555	2	7.17	-5.17	6.0%	0	2	4	7	10	13	15

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+11.11%

Slight Edge

48.89%13.33%37.78%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 38.76 Elo pts.

120 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.21 goals

Neutral

-2+0.32+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.7

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

42%

Shelbourne, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.11/gm

Tight Race

00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.68 * Some Luck: 2.68 to 4.03 * Lucky: 4.03 to 5.37 * Wild Swing: 5.37 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.79 * Close: 0.79 to 1.19 * Off: 1.19 to 1.58 * Way Off: 1.58 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.03 points

Some Luck

03.368

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.60

Pinpoint

00.992

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

95.00%

Shelbourne

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

6.00%

Pioneers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.27

Lopsided

00.160.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 197.71

2.25

Wide Separation

11.71.952.22.75

Interquartile Edge

83%

Wide Edge

50%68%76.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 98%

97%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

34%

Few

0%37%100%

Blowouts

Expected

41%

Very Frequent

0%42%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.44

Highly Predictable

00.482

Matchup Imbalance

0.52

Lopsided

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.83

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.86

Near-Lock

00.360.560.691

Upset Rate

Expected

16%

Chalky

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

11%

Solid Favorites

0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.

Probability calibration

0.53

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.42

Very Underconfident

0.4589441.001.54106

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.105

Well Within Noise

00.1620.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Shelbourne	42.00%	37.00%	10.00%	6.00%	4.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—
Shamrock Rovers	42.00%	36.00%	14.00%	6.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Fordsons	9.00%	14.00%	29.00%	28.00%	12.00%	6.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Bohemian	7.00%	12.00%	38.00%	29.00%	10.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—
Jacobs	—	1.00%	5.00%	20.00%	23.00%	26.00%	14.00%	8.00%	3.00%	—
Brideville	—	—	—	1.00%	9.00%	31.00%	21.00%	24.00%	13.00%	1.00%
Athlone Town	—	—	3.00%	6.00%	26.00%	18.00%	20.00%	18.00%	8.00%	1.00%
St. James Gate	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	11.00%	12.00%	26.00%	29.00%	13.00%	5.00%
Bray Unknowns	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%	14.00%	19.00%	40.00%	22.00%
Pioneers	—	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%	23.00%	71.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Athlone Town	100%
Bohemian	100%
Bray Unknowns	100%
Brideville	100%
Fordsons	100%
Jacobs	100%
Pioneers	100%
Shamrock Rovers	100%
Shelbourne	100%
St. James Gate	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1925-08-29	Bohemian	L 2-6	33.1	743	1079	13.05%	13.53%	73.42%	-2.47	-7.1	0
1925-08-29	@ Bray Unknowns	W 6-2	33.1	1079	743	73.42%	13.53%	13.05%	+2.47	+7.1	2
1925-08-29	Shelbourne	L 2-3	40.7	814	1064	19.75%	13.83%	66.43%	-1.75	-3.7	0
1925-08-29	@ Brideville	W 3-2	40.7	1064	814	66.43%	13.83%	19.75%	+1.75	+3.7	2
1925-08-30	Pioneers	W 4-3	44.3	811	649	68.89%	13.86%	17.26%	+1.66	+3.2	2
1925-08-30	@ Athlone Town	L 3-4	44.3	649	811	17.26%	13.86%	68.89%	-1.66	-3.2	0
1925-08-30	Jacobs	W 4-1	30.8	1113	891	73.52%	13.67%	12.81%	+2.17	+6.4	2
1925-08-30	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-4	30.8	891	1113	12.81%	13.67%	73.52%	-2.17	-6.4	0
1925-08-30	Fordsons	L 0-2	37.8	823	882	42.81%	14.14%	43.06%	-0.17	-15.7	0
1925-08-30	@ St. James Gate	W 2-0	37.8	882	823	43.06%	14.14%	42.81%	+0.17	+15.7	2
1925-09-05	Athlone Town	W 6-3	37.1	1086	814	76.57%	13.47%	9.95%	+2.58	+4.0	4
1925-09-05	@ Bohemian	L 3-6	37.1	814	1086	9.95%	13.47%	76.57%	-2.58	-4.0	2
1925-09-05	Fordsons	L 1-2	45.2	885	897	49.31%	14.14%	36.56%	+0.22	-8.9	0
1925-09-05	@ Jacobs	W 2-1	45.2	897	885	36.56%	14.14%	49.31%	-0.22	+8.9	4
1925-09-05	Brideville	W 2-1	47.6	646	810	28.79%	14.03%	57.18%	-1.04	+10.2	2
1925-09-05	@ Pioneers	L 1-2	47.6	810	646	57.18%	14.03%	28.79%	+1.04	-10.2	0
1925-09-05	Bray Unknowns	W 5-0	21.7	1120	736	81.52%	12.94%	5.54%	+3.51	+5.4	4
1925-09-05	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-5	21.7	736	1120	5.54%	12.94%	81.52%	-3.51	-5.4	0
1925-09-05	St. James Gate	W 4-1	30.1	1067	807	75.91%	13.52%	10.57%	+2.48	+5.3	4
1925-09-05	@ Shelbourne	L 1-4	30.1	807	1067	10.57%	13.52%	75.91%	-2.48	-5.3	0
1925-09-12	Shamrock Rovers	L 1-5	29.8	810	1125	14.42%	13.61%	71.97%	-2.30	-9.2	2
1925-09-12	@ Athlone Town	W 5-1	29.8	1125	810	71.97%	13.61%	14.42%	+2.30	+9.2	6
1925-09-12	Jacobs	L 2-5	40.7	731	876	31.15%	14.06%	54.79%	-0.88	-12.6	0
1925-09-12	@ Bray Unknowns	W 5-2	40.7	876	731	54.79%	14.06%	31.15%	+0.88	+12.6	2
1925-09-12	Bohemian	W 2-1	51.3	800	1090	16.32%	13.70%	69.98%	-2.09	+12.5	2
1925-09-12	@ Brideville	L 1-2	51.3	1090	800	69.98%	13.70%	16.32%	+2.09	-12.5	4
1925-09-12	Shelbourne	W 5-1	42.9	906	1073	28.54%	14.03%	57.44%	-1.06	+32.4	6
1925-09-12	@ Fordsons	L 1-5	42.9	1073	906	57.44%	14.03%	28.54%	+1.06	-32.4	4
1925-09-12	Pioneers	W 3-0	28.2	802	656	67.47%	13.90%	18.62%	+1.53	+10.8	2
1925-09-12	@ St. James Gate	L 0-3	28.2	656	802	18.62%	13.90%	67.47%	-1.53	-10.8	2
1925-09-19	St. James Gate	D 1-1	53.6	1077	812	76.18%	13.50%	10.32%	+2.52	-3.2	5
1925-09-19	@ Bohemian	D 1-1	53.6	812	1077	10.32%	13.50%	76.18%	-2.52	+3.2	3
1925-09-19	Athlone Town	L 3-5	48.9	718	801	39.48%	14.13%	46.40%	-0.36	-10.7	0
1925-09-19	@ Bray Unknowns	W 5-3	48.9	801	718	46.40%	14.13%	39.48%	+0.36	+10.7	4
1925-09-19	Fordsons	L 0-7	25.8	645	939	16.05%	13.69%	70.26%	-2.12	-20.8	2
1925-09-19	@ Pioneers	W 7-0	25.8	939	645	70.26%	13.69%	16.05%	+2.12	+20.8	8
1925-09-19	Brideville	W 2-1	32.5	1134	812	79.07%	13.25%	7.68%	+3.00	+1.6	8
1925-09-19	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-2	32.5	812	1134	7.68%	13.25%	79.07%	-3.00	-1.6	2
1925-09-26	Jacobs	W 4-2	47.1	811	888	40.24%	14.13%	45.63%	-0.32	+12.9	6
1925-09-26	@ Athlone Town	L 2-4	47.1	888	811	45.63%	14.13%	40.24%	+0.32	-12.9	2
1925-09-26	Bray Unknowns	W 1-0	34.2	811	707	63.39%	14.00%	22.62%	+1.18	+4.7	4
1925-09-26	@ Brideville	L 0-1	34.2	707	811	22.62%	14.00%	63.39%	-1.18	-4.7	0
1925-09-26	Bohemian	L 0-2	35.5	960	1074	35.05%	14.10%	50.85%	-0.63	-13.2	8
1925-09-26	@ Fordsons	W 2-0	35.5	1074	960	50.85%	14.10%	35.05%	+0.63	+13.2	7
1925-09-26	Pioneers	W 5-0	21.4	1040	624	82.57%	12.76%	4.67%	+3.77	+4.5	6
1925-09-26	@ Shelbourne	L 0-5	21.4	624	1040	4.67%	12.76%	82.57%	-3.77	-4.5	2
1925-09-26	Shamrock Rovers	D 3-3	62.0	816	1136	14.07%	13.59%	72.34%	-2.34	+1.7	4
1925-09-26	@ St. James Gate	D 3-3	62.0	1136	816	72.34%	13.59%	14.07%	+2.34	-1.7	9
1925-09-27	Shelbourne	L 0-8	30.3	875	1045	28.20%	14.02%	57.78%	-1.08	-39.8	2
1925-09-27	@ Jacobs	W 8-0	30.3	1045	875	57.78%	14.02%	28.20%	+1.08	+39.8	8
1925-10-03	Brideville	W 3-0	32.8	824	816	52.18%	14.13%	33.69%	+0.39	+18.5	8
1925-10-03	@ Athlone Town	L 0-3	32.8	816	824	33.69%	14.13%	52.18%	-0.39	-18.5	4
1925-10-03	Shelbourne	L 0-2	40.4	1088	1084	51.44%	14.13%	34.43%	+0.35	-18.5	7
1925-10-03	@ Bohemian	W 2-0	40.4	1084	1088	34.43%	14.13%	51.44%	-0.35	+18.5	10
1925-10-03	St. James Gate	L 1-3	39.3	703	817	35.08%	14.10%	50.82%	-0.63	-11.5	0
1925-10-03	@ Bray Unknowns	W 3-1	39.3	817	703	50.82%	14.10%	35.08%	+0.63	+11.5	6
1925-10-03	Pioneers	W 2-0	28.8	836	620	73.07%	13.69%	13.24%	+2.11	+5.4	4
1925-10-03	@ Jacobs	L 0-2	28.8	620	836	13.24%	13.69%	73.07%	-2.11	-5.4	2
1925-10-04	Fordsons	W 3-0	27.1	1134	946	71.03%	13.78%	15.18%	+1.88	+8.9	11
1925-10-04	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-3	27.1	946	1134	15.18%	13.78%	71.03%	-1.88	-8.9	8
1925-10-10	Bray Unknowns	W 3-2	38.1	937	691	75.06%	13.58%	11.36%	+2.37	+2.2	10
1925-10-10	@ Fordsons	L 2-3	38.1	691	937	11.36%	13.58%	75.06%	-2.37	-2.2	0
1925-10-10	Bohemian	L 0-4	22.9	615	1069	7.08%	12.98%	79.94%	-3.45	-5.5	2
1925-10-10	@ Pioneers	W 4-0	22.9	1069	615	79.94%	12.98%	7.08%	+3.45	+5.5	9
1925-10-10	Shamrock Rovers	W 3-2	47.0	1103	1143	45.48%	14.14%	40.38%	-0.01	+7.1	12
1925-10-10	@ Shelbourne	L 2-3	47.0	1143	1103	40.38%	14.14%	45.48%	+0.01	-7.1	11
1925-10-10	Athlone Town	L 2-3	49.6	829	843	49.13%	14.14%	36.73%	+0.21	-8.4	6
1925-10-10	@ St. James Gate	W 3-2	49.6	843	829	36.73%	14.14%	49.13%	-0.21	+8.4	10
1925-10-11	Jacobs	W 4-1	39.4	797	841	44.93%	14.14%	40.92%	-0.04	+18.5	6
1925-10-11	@ Brideville	L 1-4	39.4	841	797	40.92%	14.14%	44.93%	+0.04	-18.5	4
1925-10-17	Fordsons	L 2-5	43.0	851	940	38.65%	14.12%	47.23%	-0.41	-15.3	10
1925-10-17	@ Athlone Town	W 5-2	43.0	940	851	47.23%	14.12%	38.65%	+0.41	+15.3	12
1925-10-17	Shelbourne	L 0-5	22.6	689	1110	8.44%	13.15%	78.41%	-3.18	-8.1	0
1925-10-17	@ Bray Unknowns	W 5-0	22.6	1110	689	78.41%	13.15%	8.44%	+3.18	+8.1	14
1925-10-17	St. James Gate	W 3-2	45.5	816	820	50.39%	14.13%	35.48%	+0.28	+6.3	8
1925-10-17	@ Brideville	L 2-3	45.5	820	816	35.48%	14.13%	50.39%	-0.28	-6.3	6
1925-10-17	Bohemian	W 3-1	48.7	823	1075	19.54%	13.82%	66.64%	-1.77	+20.6	6
1925-10-17	@ Jacobs	L 1-3	48.7	1075	823	66.64%	13.82%	19.54%	+1.77	-20.6	9
1925-10-17	Pioneers	W 10-2	25.1	1136	609	85.37%	12.08%	2.55%	+4.70	+2.6	13
1925-10-17	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 2-10	25.1	609	1136	2.55%	12.08%	85.37%	-4.70	-2.6	2
1925-10-24	Shamrock Rovers	L 1-4	38.9	1054	1139	39.16%	14.13%	46.71%	-0.38	-17.8	9
1925-10-24	@ Bohemian	W 4-1	38.9	1139	1054	46.71%	14.13%	39.16%	+0.38	+17.8	15
1925-10-24	Brideville	W 6-2	35.2	955	822	66.32%	13.93%	19.75%	+1.43	+10.6	14
1925-10-24	@ Fordsons	L 2-6	35.2	822	955	19.75%	13.93%	66.32%	-1.43	-10.6	8
1925-10-24	Bray Unknowns	L 1-3	40.9	606	681	40.60%	14.13%	45.27%	-0.30	-13.0	2
1925-10-24	@ Pioneers	W 3-1	40.9	681	606	45.27%	14.13%	40.60%	+0.30	+13.0	2
1925-10-24	Athlone Town	W 3-1	31.4	1118	836	77.13%	13.43%	9.44%	+2.67	+3.4	16
1925-10-24	@ Shelbourne	L 1-3	31.4	836	1118	9.44%	13.43%	77.13%	-2.67	-3.4	10
1925-10-25	Jacobs	L 0-2	39.1	814	843	47.04%	14.14%	38.82%	+0.08	-17.1	6
1925-10-25	@ St. James Gate	W 2-0	39.1	843	814	38.82%	14.14%	47.04%	-0.08	+17.1	8
1925-10-31	Bray Unknowns	W 7-2	29.4	1036	694	79.94%	13.15%	6.90%	+3.16	+4.6	11
1925-10-31	@ Bohemian	L 2-7	29.4	694	1036	6.90%	13.15%	79.94%	-3.16	-4.6	2
1925-10-31	St. James Gate	W 3-1	33.7	965	797	69.47%	13.84%	16.69%	+1.72	+5.8	16
1925-10-31	@ Fordsons	L 1-3	33.7	797	965	16.69%	13.84%	69.47%	-1.72	-5.8	6
1925-10-31	Athlone Town	L 1-2	36.6	593	833	20.74%	13.86%	65.40%	-1.66	-4.1	2
1925-10-31	@ Pioneers	W 2-1	36.6	833	593	65.40%	13.86%	20.74%	+1.66	+4.1	12
1925-10-31	Brideville	D 2-2	57.4	1122	811	78.53%	13.31%	8.17%	+2.90	-2.5	17
1925-10-31	@ Shelbourne	D 2-2	57.4	811	1122	8.17%	13.31%	78.53%	-2.90	+2.5	9
1925-11-07	Bohemian	L 1-2	37.7	837	1041	24.27%	13.95%	61.78%	-1.37	-4.8	12
1925-11-07	@ Athlone Town	W 2-1	37.7	1041	837	61.78%	13.95%	24.27%	+1.37	+4.8	13
1925-11-14	Brideville	W 6-0	24.0	1046	814	74.15%	13.63%	12.22%	+2.25	+13.9	15
1925-11-14	@ Bohemian	L 0-6	24.0	814	1046	12.22%	13.63%	74.15%	-2.25	-13.9	9
1925-11-14	Bray Unknowns	D 1-1	53.5	860	689	69.67%	13.83%	16.50%	+1.74	-2.5	9
1925-11-14	@ Jacobs	D 1-1	53.5	689	860	16.50%	13.83%	69.67%	-1.74	+2.5	3
1925-11-14	St. James Gate	L 2-4	40.7	589	791	24.52%	13.95%	61.52%	-1.35	-7.4	2
1925-11-14	@ Pioneers	W 4-2	40.7	791	589	61.52%	13.95%	24.52%	+1.35	+7.4	8
1925-11-14	Fordsons	W 4-2	38.8	1119	971	67.68%	13.90%	18.42%	+1.55	+5.7	19
1925-11-14	@ Shelbourne	L 2-4	38.8	971	1119	18.42%	13.90%	67.68%	-1.55	-5.7	16
1925-11-15	Athlone Town	W 3-0	24.7	1157	832	79.19%	13.24%	7.57%	+3.02	+4.6	17
1925-11-15	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-3	24.7	832	1157	7.57%	13.24%	79.19%	-3.02	-4.5	12
1925-11-21	Bray Unknowns	L 2-3	54.8	827	692	66.56%	13.93%	19.51%	+1.45	-11.3	12
1925-11-21	@ Athlone Town	W 3-2	54.8	692	827	19.51%	13.93%	66.56%	-1.45	+11.3	5
1925-11-21	Shamrock Rovers	L 1-4	30.3	800	1161	11.48%	13.42%	75.10%	-2.68	-5.8	9
1925-11-21	@ Brideville	W 4-1	30.3	1161	800	75.10%	13.42%	11.48%	+2.68	+5.7	19
1925-11-21	Pioneers	W 6-2	30.7	966	582	81.52%	12.94%	5.54%	+3.51	+3.1	18
1925-11-21	@ Fordsons	L 2-6	30.7	582	966	5.54%	12.94%	81.52%	-3.51	-3.1	2
1925-11-21	Jacobs	D 2-2	57.4	1125	858	76.29%	13.49%	10.22%	+2.54	-2.3	20
1925-11-21	@ Shelbourne	D 2-2	57.4	858	1125	10.22%	13.49%	76.29%	-2.54	+2.4	10
1925-11-21	Bohemian	L 1-4	32.6	799	1059	18.74%	13.80%	67.47%	-1.85	-9.2	8
1925-11-21	@ St. James Gate	W 4-1	32.6	1059	799	67.47%	13.80%	18.74%	+1.85	+9.2	17
1925-11-22	Shamrock Rovers	L 1-4	31.4	860	1167	15.04%	13.64%	71.31%	-2.23	-7.4	10
1925-11-22	@ Jacobs	W 4-1	31.4	1167	860	71.31%	13.64%	15.04%	+2.23	+7.5	21
1925-11-28	Fordsons	L 0-2	43.8	1069	969	63.03%	14.01%	22.96%	+1.15	-22.5	17
1925-11-28	@ Bohemian	W 2-0	43.8	969	1069	22.96%	14.01%	63.03%	-1.15	+22.5	20
1925-11-28	Brideville	W 7-1	38.5	703	794	38.26%	14.12%	47.61%	-0.44	+39.5	7
1925-11-28	@ Bray Unknowns	L 1-7	38.5	794	703	47.61%	14.12%	38.26%	+0.44	-39.5	9
1925-11-28	Athlone Town	W 4-1	36.1	853	816	55.75%	14.10%	30.15%	+0.63	+14.2	12
1925-11-28	@ Jacobs	L 1-4	36.1	816	853	30.15%	14.10%	55.75%	-0.63	-14.2	12
1925-11-28	Shelbourne	L 0-8	22.7	579	1122	4.41%	12.47%	83.12%	-4.19	-6.6	2
1925-11-28	@ Pioneers	W 8-0	22.7	1122	579	83.12%	12.47%	4.41%	+4.19	+6.6	22
1925-11-29	St. James Gate	W 3-2	36.1	1174	789	81.57%	12.93%	5.50%	+3.52	+1.1	23
1925-11-29	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 2-3	36.1	789	1174	5.50%	12.93%	81.57%	-3.52	-1.1	8
1925-12-05	Shamrock Rovers	L 0-2	32.9	991	1175	26.45%	13.99%	59.56%	-1.21	-10.3	20
1925-12-05	@ Fordsons	W 2-0	32.9	1175	991	59.56%	13.99%	26.45%	+1.21	+10.3	25
1925-12-05	Jacobs	L 3-5	41.7	572	867	15.96%	13.68%	70.36%	-2.13	-4.7	2
1925-12-05	@ Pioneers	W 5-3	41.7	867	572	70.36%	13.68%	15.96%	+2.13	+4.7	14
1925-12-05	Bohemian	W 2-1	37.9	1129	1046	61.19%	14.04%	24.77%	+1.01	+4.9	24
1925-12-05	@ Shelbourne	L 1-2	37.9	1046	1129	24.77%	14.04%	61.19%	-1.01	-4.9	17
1925-12-05	Bray Unknowns	W 4-2	42.1	788	743	56.87%	14.09%	29.03%	+0.70	+8.7	10
1925-12-05	@ St. James Gate	L 2-4	42.1	743	788	29.03%	14.09%	56.87%	-0.70	-8.7	7
1925-12-06	Athlone Town	D 3-3	61.8	755	802	44.49%	14.14%	41.37%	-0.07	-0.1	10
1925-12-06	@ Brideville	D 3-3	61.8	802	755	41.37%	14.14%	44.49%	+0.07	+0.1	13
1925-12-12	St. James Gate	W 5-1	35.9	802	797	51.70%	14.13%	34.17%	+0.36	+20.4	15
1925-12-12	@ Athlone Town	L 1-5	35.9	797	802	34.17%	14.13%	51.70%	-0.36	-20.4	10
1925-12-12	Pioneers	W 4-1	27.6	1041	567	84.17%	12.42%	3.41%	+4.26	+1.7	19
1925-12-12	@ Bohemian	L 1-4	27.6	567	1041	3.41%	12.42%	84.17%	-4.26	-1.7	2
1925-12-12	Fordsons	D 1-1	53.5	734	981	20.01%	13.84%	66.16%	-1.73	+2.1	8
1925-12-12	@ Bray Unknowns	D 1-1	53.5	981	734	66.16%	13.84%	20.01%	+1.73	-2.1	21
1925-12-12	Shelbourne	D 2-2	57.3	1186	1134	57.61%	14.08%	28.31%	+0.75	-1.0	26
1925-12-12	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 2-2	57.3	1134	1186	28.31%	14.08%	57.61%	-0.75	+1.0	25
1925-12-13	Brideville	D 4-4	65.5	872	755	64.76%	13.97%	21.27%	+1.29	-1.1	15
1925-12-13	@ Jacobs	D 4-4	65.5	755	872	21.27%	13.97%	64.76%	-1.29	+1.1	11
1925-12-19	Jacobs	D 2-2	57.3	1043	870	69.80%	13.83%	16.37%	+1.76	-1.9	20
1925-12-19	@ Bohemian	D 2-2	57.3	870	1043	16.37%	13.83%	69.80%	-1.76	+1.9	16
1925-12-19	Shamrock Rovers	L 0-5	20.6	566	1185	2.93%	11.99%	85.08%	-4.82	-2.8	2
1925-12-19	@ Pioneers	W 5-0	20.6	1185	566	85.08%	11.99%	2.93%	+4.82	+2.8	28
1925-12-19	Bray Unknowns	W 3-1	29.9	1135	736	82.03%	12.86%	5.11%	+3.63	+1.8	27
1925-12-19	@ Shelbourne	L 1-3	29.9	736	1135	5.11%	12.86%	82.03%	-3.63	-1.8	8
1925-12-19	Brideville	D 2-2	57.2	777	756	53.76%	14.12%	32.12%	+0.50	-0.7	11
1925-12-19	@ St. James Gate	D 2-2	57.2	756	777	32.12%	14.12%	53.76%	-0.50	+0.7	12
1925-12-20	Athlone Town	W 6-5	48.8	979	822	68.42%	13.87%	17.70%	+1.62	+3.2	23
1925-12-20	@ Fordsons	L 5-6	48.8	822	979	17.70%	13.87%	68.42%	-1.62	-3.2	15
1925-12-26	Shelbourne	L 1-4	31.2	819	1137	14.27%	13.60%	72.12%	-2.31	-7.1	15
1925-12-26	@ Athlone Town	W 4-1	31.2	1137	819	72.12%	13.60%	14.27%	+2.31	+7.1	29
1925-12-26	Pioneers	W 3-1	33.6	734	563	69.70%	13.83%	16.47%	+1.74	+5.8	10
1925-12-26	@ Bray Unknowns	L 1-3	33.6	563	734	16.47%	13.83%	69.70%	-1.74	-5.8	2
1925-12-26	Fordsons	W 3-2	54.0	756	982	22.07%	13.90%	64.04%	-1.55	+10.8	14
1925-12-26	@ Brideville	L 2-3	54.0	982	756	64.04%	13.90%	22.07%	+1.55	-10.8	23
1925-12-26	Bohemian	L 0-2	45.2	1187	1041	67.55%	13.90%	18.55%	+1.54	-24.1	28
1925-12-26	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 2-0	45.2	1041	1187	18.55%	13.90%	67.55%	-1.54	+24.1	22
1925-12-27	St. James Gate	W 4-2	40.3	872	776	62.67%	14.01%	23.32%	+1.12	+7.1	18
1925-12-27	@ Jacobs	L 2-4	40.3	776	872	23.32%	14.01%	62.67%	-1.12	-7.1	11
1926-01-02	Jacobs	W 4-0	28.2	971	879	62.14%	14.02%	23.83%	+1.08	+17.8	25
1926-01-02	@ Fordsons	L 0-4	28.2	879	971	23.83%	14.02%	62.14%	-1.08	-17.8	18
1926-01-02	Shelbourne	L 1-4	30.1	769	1144	10.69%	13.36%	75.94%	-2.79	-5.4	11
1926-01-02	@ St. James Gate	W 4-1	30.1	1144	769	75.94%	13.36%	10.69%	+2.79	+5.4	31
1926-01-03	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	53.7	740	1163	8.34%	13.14%	78.53%	-3.19	+3.4	11
1926-01-03	@ Bray Unknowns	D 1-1	53.7	1163	740	78.53%	13.14%	8.34%	+3.19	-3.4	29
1926-01-03	Pioneers	W 4-3	43.1	767	557	72.67%	13.71%	13.62%	+2.07	+2.6	16
1926-01-03	@ Brideville	L 3-4	43.1	557	767	13.62%	13.71%	72.67%	-2.07	-2.6	2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1925-09-12	16.32%	@ Brideville	800	2	Bohemian	1090	1
2	1925-12-26	18.55%	Bohemian	1041	2	@ Shamrock Rovers	1187	0
3	1925-11-21	19.51%	Bray Unknowns	692	3	@ Athlone Town	827	2
4	1925-10-17	19.54%	@ Jacobs	823	3	Bohemian	1075	1
5	1925-12-26	22.07%	@ Brideville	756	3	Fordsons	982	2
6	1925-11-28	22.96%	Fordsons	969	2	@ Bohemian	1069	0
7	1925-09-12	28.54%	@ Fordsons	906	5	Shelbourne	1073	1
8	1925-09-05	28.79%	@ Pioneers	646	2	Brideville	810	1
9	1925-10-03	34.43%	Shelbourne	1084	2	@ Bohemian	1088	0
10	1925-09-05	36.56%	Fordsons	897	2	@ Jacobs	885	1
11	1925-10-10	36.73%	Athlone Town	843	3	@ St. James Gate	829	2
12	1925-11-28	38.26%	@ Bray Unknowns	703	7	Brideville	794	1
13	1925-10-25	38.82%	Jacobs	843	2	@ St. James Gate	814	0
14	1925-09-26	40.24%	@ Athlone Town	811	4	Jacobs	888	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1925-09-27	39.75	Shelbourne	8	1045	57.78%	@ Jacobs	0	875	28.20%	14.02%
2	1925-11-28	39.53	@ Bray Unknowns	7	703	38.26%	Brideville	1	794	47.61%	14.12%
3	1925-09-12	32.44	@ Fordsons	5	906	28.54%	Shelbourne	1	1073	57.44%	14.03%
4	1925-12-26	24.10	Bohemian	2	1041	18.55%	@ Shamrock Rovers	0	1187	67.55%	13.90%
5	1925-11-28	22.48	Fordsons	2	969	22.96%	@ Bohemian	0	1069	63.03%	14.01%
6	1925-09-19	20.79	Fordsons	7	939	70.26%	@ Pioneers	0	645	16.05%	13.69%
7	1925-10-17	20.57	@ Jacobs	3	823	19.54%	Bohemian	1	1075	66.64%	13.82%
8	1925-12-12	20.44	@ Athlone Town	5	802	51.70%	St. James Gate	1	797	34.17%	14.13%
9	1925-10-03	18.55	@ Athlone Town	3	824	52.18%	Brideville	0	816	33.69%	14.13%
10	1925-10-11	18.53	@ Brideville	4	797	44.93%	Jacobs	1	841	40.92%	14.14%
11	1925-10-03	18.51	Shelbourne	2	1084	34.43%	@ Bohemian	0	1088	51.44%	14.13%
12	1925-10-24	17.83	Shamrock Rovers	4	1139	46.71%	@ Bohemian	1	1054	39.16%	14.13%
13	1926-01-02	17.76	@ Fordsons	4	971	62.14%	Jacobs	0	879	23.83%	14.02%
14	1925-10-25	17.07	Jacobs	2	843	38.82%	@ St. James Gate	0	814	47.04%	14.14%
15	1925-08-30	15.73	Fordsons	2	882	43.06%	@ St. James Gate	0	823	42.81%	14.14%
16	1925-10-17	15.27	Fordsons	5	940	47.23%	@ Athlone Town	2	851	38.65%	14.12%
17	1925-11-28	14.17	@ Jacobs	4	853	55.75%	Athlone Town	1	816	30.15%	14.10%
18	1925-11-14	13.89	@ Bohemian	6	1046	74.15%	Brideville	0	814	12.22%	13.63%
19	1925-09-26	13.22	Bohemian	2	1074	50.85%	@ Fordsons	0	960	35.05%	14.10%
20	1925-10-24	13.01	Bray Unknowns	3	681	45.27%	@ Pioneers	1	606	40.60%	14.13%
21	1925-09-26	12.88	@ Athlone Town	4	811	40.24%	Jacobs	2	888	45.63%	14.13%
22	1925-09-12	12.63	Jacobs	5	876	54.79%	@ Bray Unknowns	2	731	31.15%	14.06%
23	1925-09-12	12.48	@ Brideville	2	800	16.32%	Bohemian	1	1090	69.98%	13.70%
24	1925-10-03	11.45	St. James Gate	3	817	50.82%	@ Bray Unknowns	1	703	35.08%	14.10%
25	1925-11-21	11.26	Bray Unknowns	3	692	19.51%	@ Athlone Town	2	827	66.56%	13.93%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1925-12-13	65.5	@ Jacobs	4	872	64.76%	Brideville	4	755	21.27%	13.97%
2	1925-09-26	62.0	@ St. James Gate	3	816	14.07%	Shamrock Rovers	3	1136	72.34%	13.59%
3	1925-12-06	61.8	@ Brideville	3	755	44.49%	Athlone Town	3	802	41.37%	14.14%
4	1925-10-31	57.4	@ Shelbourne	2	1122	78.53%	Brideville	2	811	8.17%	13.31%
5	1925-11-21	57.4	@ Shelbourne	2	1125	76.29%	Jacobs	2	858	10.22%	13.49%
6	1925-12-12	57.3	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	1186	57.61%	Shelbourne	2	1134	28.31%	14.08%
7	1925-12-19	57.3	@ Bohemian	2	1043	69.80%	Jacobs	2	870	16.37%	13.83%
8	1925-12-19	57.2	@ St. James Gate	2	777	53.76%	Brideville	2	756	32.12%	14.12%
9	1925-11-21	54.8	Bray Unknowns	3	692	19.51%	@ Athlone Town	2	827	66.56%	13.93%
10	1925-12-26	54.0	@ Brideville	3	756	22.07%	Fordsons	2	982	64.04%	13.90%
11	1926-01-03	53.7	@ Bray Unknowns	1	740	8.34%	Shamrock Rovers	1	1163	78.53%	13.14%
12	1925-09-19	53.6	@ Bohemian	1	1077	76.18%	St. James Gate	1	812	10.32%	13.50%
13	1925-11-14	53.5	@ Jacobs	1	860	69.67%	Bray Unknowns	1	689	16.50%	13.83%
14	1925-12-12	53.5	@ Bray Unknowns	1	734	20.01%	Fordsons	1	981	66.16%	13.84%
15	1925-09-12	51.3	@ Brideville	2	800	16.32%	Bohemian	1	1090	69.98%	13.70%
16	1925-10-10	49.6	Athlone Town	3	843	36.73%	@ St. James Gate	2	829	49.13%	14.14%
17	1925-09-19	48.9	Athlone Town	5	801	46.40%	@ Bray Unknowns	3	718	39.48%	14.13%
18	1925-12-20	48.8	@ Fordsons	6	979	68.42%	Athlone Town	5	822	17.70%	13.87%
19	1925-10-17	48.7	@ Jacobs	3	823	19.54%	Bohemian	1	1075	66.64%	13.82%
20	1925-09-05	47.6	@ Pioneers	2	646	28.79%	Brideville	1	810	57.18%	14.03%
21	1925-09-26	47.1	@ Athlone Town	4	811	40.24%	Jacobs	2	888	45.63%	14.13%
22	1925-10-10	47.0	@ Shelbourne	3	1103	45.48%	Shamrock Rovers	2	1143	40.38%	14.14%
23	1925-10-17	45.5	@ Brideville	3	816	50.39%	St. James Gate	2	820	35.48%	14.13%
24	1925-09-05	45.2	Fordsons	2	897	36.56%	@ Jacobs	1	885	49.31%	14.14%
25	1925-12-26	45.2	Bohemian	2	1041	18.55%	@ Shamrock Rovers	0	1187	67.55%	13.90%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1925-12-19	20.6	Shamrock Rovers	5	1185	85.08%	@ Pioneers	0	566	2.93%	11.99%
2	1925-09-26	21.4	@ Shelbourne	5	1040	82.57%	Pioneers	0	624	4.67%	12.76%
3	1925-09-05	21.7	@ Shamrock Rovers	5	1120	81.52%	Bray Unknowns	0	736	5.54%	12.94%
4	1925-10-17	22.6	Shelbourne	5	1110	78.41%	@ Bray Unknowns	0	689	8.44%	13.15%
5	1925-11-28	22.7	Shelbourne	8	1122	83.12%	@ Pioneers	0	579	4.41%	12.47%
6	1925-10-10	22.9	Bohemian	4	1069	79.94%	@ Pioneers	0	615	7.08%	12.98%
7	1925-11-14	24.0	@ Bohemian	6	1046	74.15%	Brideville	0	814	12.22%	13.63%
8	1925-11-15	24.7	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	1157	79.19%	Athlone Town	0	832	7.57%	13.24%
9	1925-10-17	25.1	@ Shamrock Rovers	10	1136	85.37%	Pioneers	2	609	2.55%	12.08%
10	1925-09-19	25.8	Fordsons	7	939	70.26%	@ Pioneers	0	645	16.05%	13.69%
11	1925-10-04	27.1	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	1134	71.03%	Fordsons	0	946	15.18%	13.78%
12	1925-12-12	27.6	@ Bohemian	4	1041	84.17%	Pioneers	1	567	3.41%	12.42%
13	1925-09-12	28.2	@ St. James Gate	3	802	67.47%	Pioneers	0	656	18.62%	13.90%
14	1926-01-02	28.2	@ Fordsons	4	971	62.14%	Jacobs	0	879	23.83%	14.02%
15	1925-10-03	28.8	@ Jacobs	2	836	73.07%	Pioneers	0	620	13.24%	13.69%
16	1925-10-31	29.4	@ Bohemian	7	1036	79.94%	Bray Unknowns	2	694	6.90%	13.15%
17	1925-09-12	29.8	Shamrock Rovers	5	1125	71.97%	@ Athlone Town	1	810	14.42%	13.61%
18	1925-12-19	29.9	@ Shelbourne	3	1135	82.03%	Bray Unknowns	1	736	5.11%	12.86%
19	1925-09-05	30.1	@ Shelbourne	4	1067	75.91%	St. James Gate	1	807	10.57%	13.52%
20	1926-01-02	30.1	Shelbourne	4	1144	75.94%	@ St. James Gate	1	769	10.69%	13.36%
21	1925-09-27	30.3	Shelbourne	8	1045	57.78%	@ Jacobs	0	875	28.20%	14.02%
22	1925-11-21	30.3	Shamrock Rovers	4	1161	75.10%	@ Brideville	1	800	11.48%	13.42%
23	1925-11-21	30.7	@ Fordsons	6	966	81.52%	Pioneers	2	582	5.54%	12.94%
24	1925-08-30	30.8	@ Shamrock Rovers	4	1113	73.52%	Jacobs	1	891	12.81%	13.67%
25	1925-12-26	31.2	Shelbourne	4	1137	72.12%	@ Athlone Town	1	819	14.27%	13.60%