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1926-27 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Shamrock Rovers

32 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Shamrock Rovers

4.40 points above expected

32 points · 27.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dundalk

3.47 points below expected

12 points · 15.47 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shamrock Rovers 18 14 4 0 32 59 20 +39 27.60 +4.40
2 Shelbourne 18 13 3 2 29 63 24 +39 25.24 +3.76
3 Bohemian 18 9 5 4 23 34 26 +8 23.07 -0.07
4 Athlone Town 18 7 4 7 18 45 45 0 16.60 +1.40
5 Fordsons 18 7 3 8 17 34 32 +2 19.02 -2.02
6 Bray Unknowns 18 6 1 11 13 38 57 -19 12.72 +0.28
7 Jacobs 18 5 3 10 13 23 47 -24 14.79 -1.79
8 Dundalk 18 3 6 9 12 30 40 -10 15.47 -3.47
9 St. James Gate 18 5 2 11 12 30 49 -19 12.43 -0.43
10 Brideville 18 3 5 10 11 25 41 -16 13.06 -2.06

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shamrock Rovers 32 27.60 +4.40
2 Shelbourne 29 25.24 +3.76
3 Athlone Town 18 16.60 +1.40
4 Bray Unknowns 13 12.72 +0.28
5 Bohemian 23 23.07 -0.07

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundalk 12 15.47 -3.47
2 Brideville 11 13.06 -2.06
3 Fordsons 17 19.02 -2.02
4 Jacobs 13 14.79 -1.79
5 St. James Gate 12 12.43 -0.43

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Athlone Town 4 Oct 23 – Nov 13 1 in 34
2 Shamrock Rovers 9 Oct 30 – Jan 1 1 in 31
3 Shelbourne 7 Oct 30 – Dec 12 1 in 17
4 St. James Gate 2 Nov 13 – Nov 21 1 in 10
5 Jacobs 2 Sep 7 – Sep 11 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. James Gate 5 Aug 21 – Sep 25 1 in 22
2 Brideville 4 Nov 6 – Nov 28 1 in 16
3 Fordsons 3 Sep 11 – Oct 3 1 in 14
4 Dundalk 3 Oct 30 – Nov 13 1 in 10
5 Jacobs 4 Nov 13 – Dec 5 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brideville 6 Sep 25 – Oct 30 1 in 154
2 Shamrock Rovers 18 Aug 21 – Jan 1 1 in 24
3 Bohemian 11 Aug 21 – Nov 6 1 in 15
4 Shelbourne 10 Oct 23 – Jan 1 1 in 8
5 Dundalk 2 Sep 4 – Sep 11 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundalk 8 Aug 21 – Oct 16 1 in 31
2 Brideville 9 Oct 2 – Nov 28 1 in 18
3 Athlone Town 6 Nov 24 – Mar 7 1 in 18
4 Jacobs 7 Nov 13 – Jan 1 1 in 9
5 Fordsons 5 Aug 28 – Oct 3 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shamrock Rovers 1120 32 +35 10 7.9 +2.1
Shelbourne 1044 29 +24 8 8.0 +0.0
Bohemian 886 23 -30 5 6.0 -1.0
Athlone Town 716 18 -64 3 4.4 -1.4
Fordsons 810 17 +21 7 5.8 +1.2
Bray Unknowns 657 13 +35 4 3.0 +1.0
Jacobs 634 13 -46 2 3.7 -1.7
St. James Gate 682 12 +51 5 3.7 +1.3
Dundalk 701 12 -7 4 4.6 -0.6
Brideville 614 11 -18 2 2.9 -0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AT BOH BU BRI DUN FOR JAC SR SHE SJG
Athlone Town —
1-1-0
1.70
2-0-0
3.13
1-0-1
3.31
2-0-0
2.73
0-1-1
2.47
1-1-0
3.12
0-0-2
1.27
0-1-1
1.47
0-0-2
3.53
Bohemian
0-1-1
3.89
 —
1-0-1
4.48
1-1-0
4.32
1-1-0
3.96
1-1-0
3.59
2-0-0
3.89
0-0-2
1.63
1-1-0
2.22
2-0-0
4.23
Bray Unknowns
0-0-2
2.45
1-0-1
1.12
 —
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
2.25
1-0-1
1.73
1-0-1
2.59
0-0-2
0.87
0-0-2
0.99
1-0-1
2.87
Brideville
1-0-1
2.27
0-1-1
1.28
0-1-1
3.02
 —
1-1-0
2.28
1-0-1
1.79
0-1-1
2.48
0-1-1
0.74
0-0-2
1.14
0-0-2
2.97
Dundalk
0-0-2
2.85
0-1-1
1.63
1-0-1
3.34
0-1-1
3.30
 —
1-0-1
2.25
1-1-0
2.94
0-1-1
1.10
0-0-2
1.10
0-2-0
3.37
Fordsons
1-1-0
3.11
0-1-1
2.00
1-0-1
3.86
1-0-1
3.80
1-0-1
3.33
 —
1-0-1
3.32
0-1-1
1.64
0-0-2
1.68
2-0-0
3.74
Jacobs
0-1-1
2.46
0-0-2
1.71
1-0-1
2.99
1-1-0
3.10
0-1-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.26
 —
0-0-2
0.87
0-0-2
1.78
2-0-0
3.18
Shamrock Rovers
2-0-0
4.34
2-0-0
3.95
2-0-0
4.75
1-1-0
4.89
1-1-0
4.50
1-1-0
3.95
2-0-0
4.74
 —
1-1-0
2.95
2-0-0
4.74
Shelbourne
1-1-0
4.12
0-1-1
3.37
2-0-0
4.62
2-0-0
4.47
2-0-0
4.50
2-0-0
3.91
2-0-0
3.81
0-1-1
2.63
 —
2-0-0
4.72
St. James Gate
2-0-0
2.06
0-0-2
1.38
1-0-1
2.70
2-0-0
2.61
0-2-0
2.21
0-0-2
1.85
0-0-2
2.40
0-0-2
0.87
0-0-2
0.90
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +4.9
Allowed 0.72 -5.3
Differential 0.94 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%1.11%2.78%4.44%1.67%2.78%16.11%
11.11%7.78%6.11%5.56%1.11%1.11%22.78%
22.78%6.11%3.33%3.89%4.44%2.78%23.33%
34.44%5.56%3.89%5.56%1.11%1.11%21.67%
41.67%1.11%4.44%1.11%——8.33%
5+2.78%1.11%2.78%1.11%——7.78%
Total16.11%22.78%23.33%21.67%8.33%7.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.12 2.12 +0.00
SD 1.60 1.60 2.51
CV 0.76 0.76 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
1—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
2——5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%27.78%
3—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
Total5.56%27.78%22.22%22.22%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 2.50 +0.00
SD 1.65 1.65 2.79
CV 0.66 0.66 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%22.22%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.44 +0.44
SD 1.32 1.25 1.92
CV 0.70 0.86 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1——5.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%33.33%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%33.33%
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%5.56%22.22%22.22%16.67%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 3.17 -1.06
SD 1.18 2.12 2.84
CV 0.56 0.67 —
Max 4 9 +3
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
1—5.56%11.11%11.11%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%—27.78%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%27.78%27.78%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 2.28 -0.89
SD 1.20 1.36 1.49
CV 0.86 0.60 —
Max 4 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
1—22.22%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
2——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
35.56%——5.56%5.56%—16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 2.22 -0.56
SD 1.28 1.31 1.98
CV 0.77 0.59 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
1—5.56%16.67%5.56%——27.78%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%—33.33%
3—16.67%————16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total5.56%44.44%27.78%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.78 +0.11
SD 1.18 1.11 1.60
CV 0.63 0.63 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%22.22%11.11%—38.89%
15.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
25.56%—5.56%——11.11%22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%11.11%22.22%33.33%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.61 -1.33
SD 1.36 1.58 2.17
CV 1.07 0.60 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
1———————
2—11.11%————11.11%
316.67%—11.11%11.11%——38.89%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
Total44.44%16.67%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.28 1.11 +2.17
SD 1.64 1.18 1.82
CV 0.50 1.06 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
1—5.56%————5.56%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
35.56%16.67%—11.11%——33.33%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+11.11%—11.11%———22.22%
Total27.78%33.33%16.67%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.50 1.33 +2.17
SD 2.28 1.14 2.77
CV 0.65 0.85 —
Max 9 3 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
1—5.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%38.89%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%16.67%22.22%22.22%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 2.72 -1.06
SD 1.24 1.99 2.60
CV 0.74 0.73 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shamrock Rovers 1120 32 27.60 +4.40 95.0% 21 23 25 28 29 32 33
Shelbourne 1044 29 25.24 +3.76 93.0% 18 20 22 26 28 30 33
Bohemian 886 23 23.07 -0.07 54.0% 17 19 21 23 25 28 33
Fordsons 810 17 19.02 -2.02 30.0% 10 14 17 19 21 25 27
Athlone Town 716 18 16.60 +1.40 73.0% 7 12 15 16 19 22 23
Dundalk 701 12 15.47 -3.47 14.0% 8 10 13 15 18 20 24
St. James Gate 682 12 12.43 -0.43 57.0% 6 8 10 12 15 17 21
Bray Unknowns 657 13 12.72 +0.28 56.0% 3 7 11 13 15 17 20
Jacobs 634 13 14.79 -1.79 33.0% 5 10 13 15 17 20 24
Brideville 614 11 13.06 -2.06 32.0% 7 8 11 13 15 18 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+26.67%
Strong Edge
53.33%20.00%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
146 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
094.94400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.66 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.65+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
59%
Shamrock Rovers, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Comfortable
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.49 * Some Luck: 2.49 to 3.73 * Lucky: 3.73 to 4.97 * Wild Swing: 4.97 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.97 * Close: 0.97 to 1.46 * Off: 1.46 to 1.95 * Way Off: 1.95 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.44 points
As Expected
03.118
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
01.222.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
Shamrock Rovers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
14.00%
Dundalk
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 176.41
1.99
Strong Separation
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
76%
Clear Edge
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
95%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
44%
Few
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
28%
Very Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.48
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.52
Lopsided
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.65
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.76
Near-Lock
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Solid Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.94
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.52
Very Underconfident
0.3244481.001.67555
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.111
Well Within Noise
00.1610.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Shamrock Rovers59.00%31.00%10.00%———————
Shelbourne31.00%42.00%19.00%8.00%——————
Bohemian8.00%20.00%50.00%18.00%3.00%—1.00%———
Athlone Town—2.00%3.00%17.00%30.00%21.00%11.00%9.00%5.00%2.00%
Fordsons2.00%4.00%14.00%40.00%17.00%8.00%9.00%1.00%5.00%—
Bray Unknowns——1.00%2.00%5.00%7.00%17.00%22.00%23.00%23.00%
Jacobs——1.00%4.00%10.00%22.00%17.00%17.00%16.00%13.00%
Dundalk—1.00%2.00%8.00%23.00%19.00%17.00%16.00%7.00%7.00%
St. James Gate———1.00%6.00%9.00%10.00%16.00%26.00%32.00%
Brideville———2.00%6.00%14.00%18.00%19.00%18.00%23.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Athlone Town 100%
Bohemian 100%
Bray Unknowns 100%
Brideville 100%
Dundalk 100%
Fordsons 100%
Jacobs 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
St. James Gate 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1926-08-21 Athlone Town L 3-553.9 665 712 52.02% 21.17% 26.81%+0.33 -22.4 0
1926-08-21 @ Bray Unknowns W 5-353.9 712 665 26.81% 21.17% 52.02%-0.33 +22.4 2
1926-08-21 Jacobs L 2-352.4 682 744 50.25% 21.19% 28.56%+0.23 -14.1 0
1926-08-21 @ Brideville W 3-252.4 744 682 28.56% 21.19% 50.25%-0.23 +14.1 2
1926-08-21 Dundalk W 2-136.8 829 756 64.02% 20.77% 15.21%+1.15 +5.4 2
1926-08-21 @ Fordsons L 1-236.8 756 829 15.21% 20.77% 64.02%-1.15 -5.4 0
1926-08-21 Shamrock Rovers L 0-340.0 938 957 55.22% 21.12% 23.66%+0.52 -47.1 0
1926-08-21 @ Shelbourne W 3-040.0 957 938 23.66% 21.12% 55.22%-0.52 +47.1 2
1926-08-21 Bohemian L 1-240.9 679 903 28.50% 20.95% 50.55%-0.89 -9.3 0
1926-08-21 @ St. James Gate W 2-140.9 903 679 50.55% 20.95% 28.50%+0.89 +9.3 2
1926-08-28 Dundalk W 3-137.3 734 751 55.54% 21.11% 23.35%+0.54 +13.7 4
1926-08-28 @ Athlone Town L 1-337.3 751 734 23.35% 21.11% 55.54%-0.54 -13.7 0
1926-08-28 Fordsons W 2-136.7 912 835 64.38% 20.75% 14.87%+1.18 +5.3 4
1926-08-28 @ Bohemian L 1-236.7 835 912 14.87% 20.75% 64.38%-1.18 -5.3 2
1926-08-28 Brideville W 4-242.3 642 668 54.55% 21.13% 24.32%+0.48 +12.7 2
1926-08-28 @ Bray Unknowns L 2-442.3 668 642 24.32% 21.13% 54.55%-0.48 -12.7 0
1926-08-28 Shelbourne L 0-434.5 758 891 40.78% 21.19% 38.03%-0.26 -47.2 2
1926-08-28 @ Jacobs W 4-034.5 891 758 38.03% 21.19% 40.78%+0.26 +47.2 2
1926-08-28 St. James Gate W 3-237.7 1004 669 77.52% 18.56% 3.93%+2.94 +1.4 4
1926-08-28 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-337.7 669 1004 3.93% 18.56% 77.52%-2.94 -1.4 0
1926-09-04 Bohemian D 1-151.5 737 918 34.11% 21.09% 44.79%-0.59 +0.7 1
1926-09-04 @ Dundalk D 1-151.5 918 737 44.79% 21.09% 34.11%+0.59 -0.7 5
1926-09-04 Bray Unknowns W 9-026.0 938 655 75.72% 19.12% 5.16%+2.59 +15.8 4
1926-09-04 @ Shelbourne L 0-926.0 655 938 5.16% 19.12% 75.72%-2.59 -15.8 2
1926-09-05 Athlone Town W 3-247.1 655 748 46.24% 21.21% 32.55%+0.01 +9.9 2
1926-09-05 @ Brideville L 2-347.1 748 655 32.55% 21.21% 46.24%-0.01 -9.9 4
1926-09-05 Shamrock Rovers D 0-048.7 830 1006 34.73% 21.11% 44.17%-0.55 +0.7 3
1926-09-05 @ Fordsons D 0-048.7 1006 830 44.17% 21.11% 34.73%+0.55 -0.7 5
1926-09-07 Jacobs L 0-241.6 668 711 52.58% 21.17% 26.25%+0.36 -31.0 0
1926-09-07 @ St. James Gate W 2-041.6 711 668 26.25% 21.17% 52.58%-0.36 +31.0 4
1926-09-11 Athlone Town D 3-361.0 917 738 71.04% 20.08% 8.88%+1.87 -3.0 6
1926-09-11 @ Bohemian D 3-361.0 738 917 8.88% 20.08% 71.04%-1.87 +3.0 5
1926-09-11 St. James Gate W 4-241.4 639 637 57.52% 21.06% 21.42%+0.66 +11.4 4
1926-09-11 @ Bray Unknowns L 2-441.4 637 639 21.42% 21.06% 57.52%-0.66 -11.4 0
1926-09-11 Shelbourne L 1-336.6 665 954 21.44% 20.63% 57.93%-1.33 -12.6 2
1926-09-11 @ Brideville W 3-136.6 954 665 57.93% 20.63% 21.44%+1.33 +12.6 6
1926-09-11 Fordsons W 1-038.3 742 830 46.82% 21.21% 31.98%+0.04 +10.9 6
1926-09-11 @ Jacobs L 0-138.3 830 742 31.98% 21.21% 46.82%-0.04 -10.9 3
1926-09-11 Dundalk D 3-361.3 1005 738 75.11% 19.28% 5.61%+2.48 -3.4 6
1926-09-11 @ Shamrock Rovers D 3-361.3 738 1005 5.61% 19.28% 75.11%-2.48 +3.4 2
1926-09-25 Dundalk W 2-142.1 651 741 46.55% 21.21% 32.25%+0.03 +10.3 6
1926-09-25 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-242.1 741 651 32.25% 21.21% 46.55%-0.03 -10.3 2
1926-09-25 Fordsons W 2-145.3 652 819 35.95% 21.13% 42.92%-0.49 +12.9 4
1926-09-25 @ Brideville L 1-245.3 819 652 42.92% 21.13% 35.95%+0.49 -12.9 3
1926-09-25 Bohemian L 0-236.8 752 914 36.70% 21.14% 42.16%-0.46 -22.9 6
1926-09-25 @ Jacobs W 2-036.8 914 752 42.16% 21.14% 36.70%+0.46 +22.9 8
1926-09-25 St. James Gate W 5-022.5 966 626 77.70% 18.49% 3.81%+2.98 +6.6 8
1926-09-25 @ Shelbourne L 0-522.5 626 966 3.81% 18.49% 77.70%-2.98 -6.6 0
1926-09-26 Shamrock Rovers L 2-539.7 741 1001 24.39% 20.79% 54.82%-1.13 -17.3 5
1926-09-26 @ Athlone Town W 5-239.7 1001 741 54.82% 20.79% 24.39%+1.13 +17.3 8
1926-10-02 Bray Unknowns W 3-131.3 937 661 75.47% 19.19% 5.35%+2.54 +3.5 10
1926-10-02 @ Bohemian L 1-331.3 661 937 5.35% 19.19% 75.47%-2.54 -3.5 6
1926-10-02 Brideville D 1-151.6 731 665 63.42% 20.81% 15.77%+1.10 -3.6 3
1926-10-02 @ Dundalk D 1-151.6 665 731 15.77% 20.81% 63.42%-1.10 +3.6 5
1926-10-02 Athlone Town W 5-242.7 619 724 44.66% 21.21% 34.13%-0.07 +22.9 2
1926-10-02 @ St. James Gate L 2-542.7 724 619 34.13% 21.21% 44.66%+0.07 -22.9 5
1926-10-03 Shelbourne L 1-341.1 806 973 36.05% 21.13% 42.82%-0.49 -19.5 3
1926-10-03 @ Fordsons W 3-141.1 973 806 42.82% 21.13% 36.05%+0.49 +19.5 10
1926-10-03 Jacobs W 3-024.3 1019 730 75.96% 19.05% 4.99%+2.63 +5.4 10
1926-10-03 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-324.3 730 1019 4.99% 19.05% 75.96%-2.63 -5.4 6
1926-10-09 Jacobs W 5-239.7 701 724 54.81% 21.13% 24.06%+0.49 +17.2 7
1926-10-09 @ Athlone Town L 2-539.7 724 701 24.06% 21.13% 54.81%-0.49 -17.2 6
1926-10-09 Shamrock Rovers L 3-542.4 658 1024 14.77% 20.09% 65.13%-1.86 -7.6 6
1926-10-09 @ Bray Unknowns W 5-342.4 1024 658 65.13% 20.09% 14.77%+1.86 +7.6 12
1926-10-09 Bohemian D 0-048.8 669 940 23.17% 20.73% 56.10%-1.21 +2.6 6
1926-10-09 @ Brideville D 0-048.8 940 669 56.10% 20.73% 23.17%+1.21 -2.6 11
1926-10-09 Dundalk W 3-024.6 992 728 75.03% 19.30% 5.67%+2.46 +6.1 12
1926-10-09 @ Shelbourne L 0-324.6 728 992 5.67% 19.30% 75.03%-2.46 -6.1 3
1926-10-09 Fordsons L 1-342.0 642 787 39.06% 21.17% 39.77%-0.34 -20.8 2
1926-10-09 @ St. James Gate W 3-142.0 787 642 39.77% 21.17% 39.06%+0.34 +20.8 5
1926-10-16 Shelbourne W 3-245.8 938 998 50.39% 21.19% 28.42%+0.23 +8.8 13
1926-10-16 @ Bohemian L 2-345.8 998 938 28.42% 21.19% 50.39%-0.23 -8.8 12
1926-10-16 Athlone Town W 2-136.5 808 718 65.30% 20.68% 14.01%+1.26 +5.0 7
1926-10-16 @ Fordsons L 1-236.5 718 808 14.01% 20.68% 65.30%-1.26 -5.0 7
1926-10-16 St. James Gate D 1-151.6 721 621 66.09% 20.62% 13.28%+1.34 -4.0 4
1926-10-16 @ Dundalk D 1-151.6 621 721 13.28% 20.62% 66.09%-1.34 +4.0 3
1926-10-16 Bray Unknowns W 4-346.2 707 650 62.70% 20.85% 16.45%+1.04 +5.4 8
1926-10-16 @ Jacobs L 3-446.2 650 707 16.45% 20.85% 62.70%-1.04 -5.4 6
1926-10-17 Brideville D 0-049.5 1032 671 78.31% 18.26% 3.43%+3.12 -6.6 13
1926-10-17 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-049.5 671 1032 3.43% 18.26% 78.31%-3.12 +6.6 7
1926-10-23 Bray Unknowns W 5-131.5 713 644 63.67% 20.79% 15.53%+1.12 +17.5 9
1926-10-23 @ Athlone Town L 1-531.5 644 713 15.53% 20.79% 63.67%-1.12 -17.5 6
1926-10-23 St. James Gate W 3-024.0 947 625 77.08% 18.71% 4.21%+2.85 +4.5 15
1926-10-23 @ Bohemian L 0-324.0 625 947 4.21% 18.71% 77.08%-2.85 -4.5 3
1926-10-23 Fordsons W 4-244.9 717 813 45.93% 21.21% 32.87%+0.00 +16.2 6
1926-10-23 @ Dundalk L 2-444.9 813 717 32.87% 21.21% 45.93%+0.00 -16.2 7
1926-10-23 Brideville D 2-256.0 712 678 60.66% 20.95% 18.39%+0.88 -2.3 9
1926-10-23 @ Jacobs D 2-256.0 678 712 18.39% 20.95% 60.66%-0.88 +2.3 8
1926-10-23 Shelbourne D 3-360.8 1025 990 60.78% 20.94% 18.28%+0.89 -1.9 14
1926-10-23 @ Shamrock Rovers D 3-360.8 990 1025 18.28% 20.94% 60.78%-0.89 +1.9 13
1926-10-30 Bray Unknowns D 3-360.8 680 627 62.38% 20.87% 16.75%+1.02 -2.1 9
1926-10-30 @ Brideville D 3-360.8 627 680 16.75% 20.87% 62.38%-1.02 +2.1 7
1926-10-30 Bohemian D 1-151.5 797 951 37.69% 21.15% 41.16%-0.41 +0.2 8
1926-10-30 @ Fordsons D 1-151.5 951 797 41.16% 21.15% 37.69%+0.41 -0.2 16
1926-10-30 Athlone Town L 2-354.5 734 731 57.59% 21.06% 21.35%+0.67 -16.0 6
1926-10-30 @ Dundalk W 3-254.5 731 734 21.35% 21.06% 57.59%-0.67 +16.0 11
1926-10-30 Jacobs W 6-231.1 992 710 75.67% 19.13% 5.20%+2.58 +5.2 15
1926-10-30 @ Shelbourne L 2-631.1 710 992 5.20% 19.13% 75.67%-2.58 -5.2 9
1926-10-30 Shamrock Rovers L 1-530.3 621 1023 12.37% 19.79% 67.84%-2.11 -14.0 3
1926-10-30 @ St. James Gate W 5-130.3 1023 621 67.84% 19.79% 12.37%+2.11 +14.0 16
1926-11-06 Brideville W 5-026.7 747 678 63.64% 20.80% 15.56%+1.12 +25.9 13
1926-11-06 @ Athlone Town L 0-526.7 678 747 15.56% 20.80% 63.64%-1.12 -25.9 9
1926-11-06 Dundalk W 4-236.6 951 718 73.71% 19.60% 6.69%+2.25 +3.9 18
1926-11-06 @ Bohemian L 2-436.6 718 951 6.69% 19.60% 73.71%-2.25 -3.9 6
1926-11-06 Shelbourne L 1-236.5 629 997 14.70% 20.08% 65.22%-1.87 -5.2 7
1926-11-06 @ Bray Unknowns W 2-136.5 997 629 65.22% 20.08% 14.70%+1.87 +5.2 17
1926-11-06 St. James Gate W 4-238.9 705 607 65.95% 20.63% 13.41%+1.32 +7.5 11
1926-11-06 @ Jacobs L 2-438.9 607 705 13.41% 20.63% 65.95%-1.32 -7.5 3
1926-11-07 Fordsons W 4-236.5 1037 797 74.02% 19.54% 6.44%+2.30 +3.7 18
1926-11-07 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-436.5 797 1037 6.44% 19.54% 74.02%-2.30 -3.7 8
1926-11-13 Bohemian W 3-143.8 773 955 33.90% 21.09% 45.01%-0.60 +23.3 15
1926-11-13 @ Athlone Town L 1-343.8 955 773 45.01% 21.09% 33.90%+0.60 -23.3 18
1926-11-13 Jacobs W 3-134.6 793 712 64.63% 20.73% 14.64%+1.20 +9.1 10
1926-11-13 @ Fordsons L 1-334.6 712 793 14.64% 20.73% 64.63%-1.20 -9.1 11
1926-11-13 Shamrock Rovers L 0-527.3 714 1041 17.88% 20.38% 61.73%-1.59 -29.0 6
1926-11-13 @ Dundalk W 5-027.3 1041 714 61.73% 20.38% 17.88%+1.59 +29.0 20
1926-11-13 Brideville W 3-130.6 1002 652 77.98% 18.39% 3.63%+3.04 +2.3 19
1926-11-13 @ Shelbourne L 1-330.6 652 1002 3.63% 18.39% 77.98%-3.04 -2.3 9
1926-11-13 Bray Unknowns W 3-137.6 599 624 54.63% 21.13% 24.24%+0.48 +14.1 5
1926-11-13 @ St. James Gate L 1-337.6 624 599 24.24% 21.13% 54.63%-0.48 -14.1 7
1926-11-19 Jacobs W 3-030.5 685 703 55.30% 21.12% 23.58%+0.52 +23.1 8
1926-11-19 @ Dundalk L 0-330.5 703 685 23.58% 21.12% 55.30%-0.52 -23.1 11
1926-11-20 Fordsons W 3-251.2 610 802 32.54% 21.06% 46.40%-0.67 +13.1 9
1926-11-20 @ Bray Unknowns L 2-351.2 802 610 46.40% 21.06% 32.54%+0.67 -13.1 10
1926-11-20 Bohemian W 4-025.3 1070 931 68.69% 20.38% 10.93%+1.60 +15.2 22
1926-11-20 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-425.3 931 1070 10.93% 20.38% 68.69%-1.60 -15.2 18
1926-11-21 St. James Gate L 1-250.6 650 613 60.89% 20.94% 18.17%+0.90 -17.8 9
1926-11-21 @ Brideville W 2-150.6 613 650 18.17% 20.94% 60.89%-0.90 +17.8 7
1926-11-24 Shelbourne L 2-444.2 796 1004 30.50% 21.01% 48.49%-0.78 -15.2 15
1926-11-24 @ Athlone Town W 4-244.2 1004 796 48.49% 21.01% 30.50%+0.78 +15.2 21
1926-11-27 Jacobs W 4-023.7 916 680 73.83% 19.58% 6.59%+2.27 +9.3 20
1926-11-27 @ Bohemian L 0-423.7 680 916 6.59% 19.58% 73.83%-2.27 -9.3 11
1926-11-27 Bray Unknowns W 4-132.5 708 623 64.96% 20.71% 14.34%+1.23 +12.6 10
1926-11-27 @ Dundalk L 1-432.5 623 708 14.34% 20.71% 64.96%-1.23 -12.6 9
1926-11-27 Shelbourne L 2-831.1 631 1019 13.27% 19.91% 66.81%-2.01 -17.9 7
1926-11-27 @ St. James Gate W 8-231.1 1019 631 66.81% 19.91% 13.27%+2.01 +17.9 23
1926-11-28 Brideville W 4-237.8 789 632 69.81% 20.24% 9.95%+1.72 +5.7 12
1926-11-28 @ Fordsons L 2-437.8 632 789 9.95% 20.24% 69.81%-1.72 -5.7 9
1926-11-28 Athlone Town W 6-023.4 1085 781 76.50% 18.89% 4.61%+2.73 +9.5 24
1926-11-28 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-623.4 781 1085 4.61% 18.89% 76.50%-2.73 -9.5 15
1926-12-04 Bohemian W 2-043.8 610 926 18.92% 20.46% 60.61%-1.51 +35.3 11
1926-12-04 @ Bray Unknowns L 0-243.8 926 610 60.61% 20.46% 18.92%+1.51 -35.3 20
1926-12-04 Dundalk W 4-351.2 627 720 46.14% 21.21% 32.65%+0.01 +9.6 11
1926-12-04 @ Brideville L 3-451.2 720 627 32.65% 21.21% 46.14%-0.01 -9.6 10
1926-12-04 Fordsons W 2-133.8 1037 795 74.12% 19.52% 6.37%+2.31 +2.4 25
1926-12-04 @ Shelbourne L 1-233.8 795 1037 6.37% 19.52% 74.12%-2.31 -2.4 12
1926-12-05 Shamrock Rovers L 0-326.3 671 1095 11.11% 19.60% 69.29%-2.25 -11.6 11
1926-12-05 @ Jacobs W 3-026.3 1095 671 69.29% 19.60% 11.11%+2.25 +11.6 26
1926-12-11 Brideville W 1-030.0 890 636 74.59% 19.41% 6.00%+2.39 +2.4 22
1926-12-11 @ Bohemian L 0-130.0 636 890 6.00% 19.41% 74.59%-2.39 -2.4 11
1926-12-11 St. James Gate W 3-132.6 792 613 71.06% 20.07% 8.87%+1.88 +5.7 14
1926-12-11 @ Fordsons L 1-332.6 613 792 8.87% 20.07% 71.06%-1.88 -5.7 7
1926-12-11 Athlone Town D 1-151.4 659 771 43.68% 21.20% 35.11%-0.12 -0.6 12
1926-12-11 @ Jacobs D 1-151.4 771 659 35.11% 21.20% 43.68%+0.12 +0.6 16
1926-12-11 Bray Unknowns W 3-236.7 1106 646 80.97% 17.02% 2.02%+3.80 +0.7 28
1926-12-11 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-336.7 646 1106 2.02% 17.02% 80.97%-3.80 -0.7 11
1926-12-12 Shelbourne L 0-230.9 711 1040 17.73% 20.37% 61.90%-1.60 -12.3 10
1926-12-12 @ Dundalk W 2-030.9 1040 711 61.90% 20.37% 17.73%+1.60 +12.3 27
1926-12-18 Fordsons D 2-256.0 772 798 54.46% 21.14% 24.41%+0.47 -1.6 17
1926-12-18 @ Athlone Town D 2-256.0 798 772 24.41% 21.14% 54.46%-0.47 +1.6 15
1926-12-18 Jacobs W 3-030.4 645 659 55.84% 21.11% 23.06%+0.56 +22.7 13
1926-12-18 @ Bray Unknowns L 0-330.4 659 645 23.06% 21.11% 55.84%-0.56 -22.7 12
1926-12-18 Bohemian D 3-361.0 1052 893 69.96% 20.22% 9.81%+1.74 -2.9 28
1926-12-18 @ Shelbourne D 3-361.0 893 1052 9.81% 20.22% 69.96%-1.74 +2.9 23
1926-12-18 Dundalk D 2-255.9 608 698 46.52% 21.21% 32.27%+0.03 -0.7 8
1926-12-18 @ St. James Gate D 2-255.9 698 608 32.27% 21.21% 46.52%-0.03 +0.7 11
1926-12-19 Shamrock Rovers L 1-234.4 634 1107 8.65% 19.11% 72.23%-2.59 -3.1 11
1926-12-19 @ Brideville W 2-134.4 1107 634 72.23% 19.11% 8.65%+2.59 +3.1 30
1927-01-01 Shamrock Rovers L 1-241.3 896 1110 29.70% 20.99% 49.31%-0.82 -9.6 23
1927-01-01 @ Bohemian W 2-141.3 1110 896 49.31% 20.99% 29.70%+0.82 +9.6 32
1927-01-01 Bray Unknowns W 4-131.5 800 668 68.28% 20.42% 11.30%+1.55 +10.1 17
1927-01-01 @ Fordsons L 1-431.5 668 800 11.30% 20.42% 68.28%-1.55 -10.1 13
1927-01-01 Dundalk D 1-151.4 636 699 50.08% 21.19% 28.73%+0.22 -1.5 13
1927-01-01 @ Jacobs D 1-151.4 699 636 28.73% 21.19% 50.08%-0.22 +1.5 12
1927-01-01 Athlone Town D 1-152.1 1049 770 75.58% 19.16% 5.26%+2.56 -5.5 29
1927-01-01 @ Shelbourne D 1-152.1 770 1049 5.26% 19.16% 75.58%-2.56 +5.5 18
1927-01-02 Brideville W 2-033.0 607 631 54.72% 21.13% 24.15%+0.49 +16.2 10
1927-01-02 @ St. James Gate L 0-233.0 631 607 24.15% 21.13% 54.72%-0.49 -16.2 11
1927-03-07 St. James Gate L 0-344.1 776 623 69.56% 20.27% 10.16%+1.70 -59.4 18
1927-03-07 @ Athlone Town W 3-044.1 623 776 10.16% 20.27% 69.56%-1.70 +59.4 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1927-03-07 10.16% St. James Gate 623 3 @ Athlone Town 776 0
2 1926-11-21 18.17% St. James Gate 613 2 @ Brideville 650 1
3 1926-12-04 18.92% @ Bray Unknowns 610 2 Bohemian 926 0
4 1926-10-30 21.35% Athlone Town 731 3 @ Dundalk 734 2
5 1926-08-21 23.66% Shamrock Rovers 957 3 @ Shelbourne 938 0
6 1926-09-07 26.25% Jacobs 711 2 @ St. James Gate 668 0
7 1926-08-21 26.81% Athlone Town 712 5 @ Bray Unknowns 665 3
8 1926-08-21 28.56% Jacobs 744 3 @ Brideville 682 2
9 1926-11-20 32.54% @ Bray Unknowns 610 3 Fordsons 802 2
10 1926-11-13 33.90% @ Athlone Town 773 3 Bohemian 955 1
11 1926-09-25 35.95% @ Brideville 652 2 Fordsons 819 1
12 1926-08-28 38.03% Shelbourne 891 4 @ Jacobs 758 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1927-03-07 59.41 St. James Gate 3 623 10.16% @ Athlone Town 0 776 69.56% 20.27%
2 1926-08-28 47.17 Shelbourne 4 891 38.03% @ Jacobs 0 758 40.78% 21.19%
3 1926-08-21 47.08 Shamrock Rovers 3 957 23.66% @ Shelbourne 0 938 55.22% 21.12%
4 1926-12-04 35.32 @ Bray Unknowns 2 610 18.92% Bohemian 0 926 60.61% 20.46%
5 1926-09-07 30.96 Jacobs 2 711 26.25% @ St. James Gate 0 668 52.58% 21.17%
6 1926-11-13 29.04 Shamrock Rovers 5 1041 61.73% @ Dundalk 0 714 17.88% 20.38%
7 1926-11-06 25.92 @ Athlone Town 5 747 63.64% Brideville 0 678 15.56% 20.80%
8 1926-11-13 23.33 @ Athlone Town 3 773 33.90% Bohemian 1 955 45.01% 21.09%
9 1926-11-19 23.12 @ Dundalk 3 685 55.30% Jacobs 0 703 23.58% 21.12%
10 1926-10-02 22.89 @ St. James Gate 5 619 44.66% Athlone Town 2 724 34.13% 21.21%
11 1926-09-25 22.85 Bohemian 2 914 42.16% @ Jacobs 0 752 36.70% 21.14%
12 1926-12-18 22.69 @ Bray Unknowns 3 645 55.84% Jacobs 0 659 23.06% 21.11%
13 1926-08-21 22.44 Athlone Town 5 712 26.81% @ Bray Unknowns 3 665 52.02% 21.17%
14 1926-10-09 20.80 Fordsons 3 787 39.77% @ St. James Gate 1 642 39.06% 21.17%
15 1926-10-03 19.52 Shelbourne 3 973 42.82% @ Fordsons 1 806 36.05% 21.13%
16 1926-11-27 17.94 Shelbourne 8 1019 66.81% @ St. James Gate 2 631 13.27% 19.91%
17 1926-11-21 17.84 St. James Gate 2 613 18.17% @ Brideville 1 650 60.89% 20.94%
18 1926-10-23 17.50 @ Athlone Town 5 713 63.67% Bray Unknowns 1 644 15.53% 20.79%
19 1926-09-26 17.29 Shamrock Rovers 5 1001 54.82% @ Athlone Town 2 741 24.39% 20.79%
20 1926-10-09 17.18 @ Athlone Town 5 701 54.81% Jacobs 2 724 24.06% 21.13%
21 1927-01-02 16.25 @ St. James Gate 2 607 54.72% Brideville 0 631 24.15% 21.13%
22 1926-10-23 16.21 @ Dundalk 4 717 45.93% Fordsons 2 813 32.87% 21.21%
23 1926-10-30 16.01 Athlone Town 3 731 21.35% @ Dundalk 2 734 57.59% 21.06%
24 1926-09-04 15.75 @ Shelbourne 9 938 75.72% Bray Unknowns 0 655 5.16% 19.12%
25 1926-11-24 15.23 Shelbourne 4 1004 48.49% @ Athlone Town 2 796 30.50% 21.01%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1926-09-11 61.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1005 75.11% Dundalk 3 738 5.61% 19.28%
2 1926-09-11 61.0 @ Bohemian 3 917 71.04% Athlone Town 3 738 8.88% 20.08%
3 1926-12-18 61.0 @ Shelbourne 3 1052 69.96% Bohemian 3 893 9.81% 20.22%
4 1926-10-23 60.8 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1025 60.78% Shelbourne 3 990 18.28% 20.94%
5 1926-10-30 60.8 @ Brideville 3 680 62.38% Bray Unknowns 3 627 16.75% 20.87%
6 1926-10-23 56.0 @ Jacobs 2 712 60.66% Brideville 2 678 18.39% 20.95%
7 1926-12-18 56.0 @ Athlone Town 2 772 54.46% Fordsons 2 798 24.41% 21.14%
8 1926-12-18 55.9 @ St. James Gate 2 608 46.52% Dundalk 2 698 32.27% 21.21%
9 1926-10-30 54.5 Athlone Town 3 731 21.35% @ Dundalk 2 734 57.59% 21.06%
10 1926-08-21 53.9 Athlone Town 5 712 26.81% @ Bray Unknowns 3 665 52.02% 21.17%
11 1926-08-21 52.4 Jacobs 3 744 28.56% @ Brideville 2 682 50.25% 21.19%
12 1927-01-01 52.1 @ Shelbourne 1 1049 75.58% Athlone Town 1 770 5.26% 19.16%
13 1926-10-02 51.6 @ Dundalk 1 731 63.42% Brideville 1 665 15.77% 20.81%
14 1926-10-16 51.6 @ Dundalk 1 721 66.09% St. James Gate 1 621 13.28% 20.62%
15 1926-09-04 51.5 @ Dundalk 1 737 34.11% Bohemian 1 918 44.79% 21.09%
16 1926-10-30 51.5 @ Fordsons 1 797 37.69% Bohemian 1 951 41.16% 21.15%
17 1926-12-11 51.4 @ Jacobs 1 659 43.68% Athlone Town 1 771 35.11% 21.20%
18 1927-01-01 51.4 @ Jacobs 1 636 50.08% Dundalk 1 699 28.73% 21.19%
19 1926-11-20 51.2 @ Bray Unknowns 3 610 32.54% Fordsons 2 802 46.40% 21.06%
20 1926-12-04 51.2 @ Brideville 4 627 46.14% Dundalk 3 720 32.65% 21.21%
21 1926-11-21 50.6 St. James Gate 2 613 18.17% @ Brideville 1 650 60.89% 20.94%
22 1926-10-17 49.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1032 78.31% Brideville 0 671 3.43% 18.26%
23 1926-10-09 48.8 @ Brideville 0 669 23.17% Bohemian 0 940 56.10% 20.73%
24 1926-09-05 48.7 @ Fordsons 0 830 34.73% Shamrock Rovers 0 1006 44.17% 21.11%
25 1926-09-05 47.1 @ Brideville 3 655 46.24% Athlone Town 2 748 32.55% 21.21%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1926-09-25 22.5 @ Shelbourne 5 966 77.70% St. James Gate 0 626 3.81% 18.49%
2 1926-11-28 23.4 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1085 76.50% Athlone Town 0 781 4.61% 18.89%
3 1926-11-27 23.7 @ Bohemian 4 916 73.83% Jacobs 0 680 6.59% 19.58%
4 1926-10-23 24.0 @ Bohemian 3 947 77.08% St. James Gate 0 625 4.21% 18.71%
5 1926-10-03 24.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1019 75.96% Jacobs 0 730 4.99% 19.05%
6 1926-10-09 24.6 @ Shelbourne 3 992 75.03% Dundalk 0 728 5.67% 19.30%
7 1926-11-20 25.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1070 68.69% Bohemian 0 931 10.93% 20.38%
8 1926-09-04 26.0 @ Shelbourne 9 938 75.72% Bray Unknowns 0 655 5.16% 19.12%
9 1926-12-05 26.3 Shamrock Rovers 3 1095 69.29% @ Jacobs 0 671 11.11% 19.60%
10 1926-11-06 26.7 @ Athlone Town 5 747 63.64% Brideville 0 678 15.56% 20.80%
11 1926-11-13 27.3 Shamrock Rovers 5 1041 61.73% @ Dundalk 0 714 17.88% 20.38%
12 1926-12-11 30.0 @ Bohemian 1 890 74.59% Brideville 0 636 6.00% 19.41%
13 1926-10-30 30.3 Shamrock Rovers 5 1023 67.84% @ St. James Gate 1 621 12.37% 19.79%
14 1926-12-18 30.4 @ Bray Unknowns 3 645 55.84% Jacobs 0 659 23.06% 21.11%
15 1926-11-19 30.5 @ Dundalk 3 685 55.30% Jacobs 0 703 23.58% 21.12%
16 1926-11-13 30.6 @ Shelbourne 3 1002 77.98% Brideville 1 652 3.63% 18.39%
17 1926-12-12 30.9 Shelbourne 2 1040 61.90% @ Dundalk 0 711 17.73% 20.37%
18 1926-10-30 31.1 @ Shelbourne 6 992 75.67% Jacobs 2 710 5.20% 19.13%
19 1926-11-27 31.1 Shelbourne 8 1019 66.81% @ St. James Gate 2 631 13.27% 19.91%
20 1926-10-02 31.3 @ Bohemian 3 937 75.47% Bray Unknowns 1 661 5.35% 19.19%
21 1926-10-23 31.5 @ Athlone Town 5 713 63.67% Bray Unknowns 1 644 15.53% 20.79%
22 1927-01-01 31.5 @ Fordsons 4 800 68.28% Bray Unknowns 1 668 11.30% 20.42%
23 1926-11-27 32.5 @ Dundalk 4 708 64.96% Bray Unknowns 1 623 14.34% 20.71%
24 1926-12-11 32.6 @ Fordsons 3 792 71.06% St. James Gate 1 613 8.87% 20.07%
25 1927-01-02 33.0 @ St. James Gate 2 607 54.72% Brideville 0 631 24.15% 21.13%