Home / Leagues / Ireland / League of Ireland / 1927-28
‹ ›

1927-28 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Bohemian

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Bohemian

5.28 points above expected

31 points · 25.72 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Athlone Town

4.80 points below expected

5 points · 9.80 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Bohemian 18 15 1 2 31 53 20 +33 25.72 +5.28
2 Shelbourne 18 13 2 3 28 67 24 +43 25.51 +2.49
3 Shamrock Rovers 18 9 7 2 25 41 18 +23 25.83 -0.83
4 Fordsons 18 9 4 5 22 46 34 +12 19.68 +2.32
5 Dundalk 18 9 3 6 21 44 36 +8 19.78 +1.22
6 Brideville 18 7 5 6 19 37 33 +4 16.45 +2.55
7 St. James Gate 18 5 4 9 14 28 42 -14 16.26 -2.26
8 Jacobs 18 2 5 11 9 20 46 -26 10.89 -1.89
9 Bray Unknowns 18 1 4 13 6 29 70 -41 10.08 -4.08
10 Athlone Town 18 2 1 15 5 19 61 -42 9.80 -4.80

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bohemian 31 25.72 +5.28
2 Brideville 19 16.45 +2.55
3 Shelbourne 28 25.51 +2.49
4 Fordsons 22 19.68 +2.32
5 Dundalk 21 19.78 +1.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Athlone Town 5 9.80 -4.80
2 Bray Unknowns 6 10.08 -4.08
3 St. James Gate 14 16.26 -2.26
4 Jacobs 9 10.89 -1.89
5 Shamrock Rovers 25 25.83 -0.83

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shelbourne 8 Nov 12 – Dec 31 1 in 55
2 Bohemian 8 Sep 17 – Nov 12 1 in 32
3 Fordsons 4 Oct 8 – Oct 29 1 in 17
4 Brideville 2 Aug 27 – Sep 3 1 in 9
5 Dundalk 3 Sep 11 – Sep 24 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bray Unknowns 8 Aug 20 – Oct 8 1 in 90
2 St. James Gate 3 Oct 16 – Nov 6 1 in 55
3 Dundalk 3 Dec 4 – Dec 18 1 in 14
4 Bohemian 1 Nov 20 – Nov 20 1 in 6
5 Jacobs 4 Sep 18 – Oct 8 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brideville 6 Sep 24 – Nov 5 1 in 33
2 Jacobs 3 Dec 3 – Dec 18 1 in 18
3 Bohemian 12 Aug 20 – Nov 12 1 in 17
4 Shamrock Rovers 11 Aug 21 – Nov 6 1 in 9
5 Fordsons 5 Oct 8 – Nov 6 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. James Gate 8 Oct 16 – Dec 10 1 in 60
2 Brideville 5 Nov 30 – Dec 31 1 in 19
3 Bray Unknowns 13 Aug 20 – Nov 12 1 in 10
4 Shamrock Rovers 3 Oct 2 – Oct 16 1 in 10
5 Shelbourne 3 Oct 8 – Nov 5 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Bohemian 1087 31 +36 8 7.5 +0.5
Shelbourne 1163 28 +114 10 6.8 +3.2
Shamrock Rovers 1043 25 +38 7 7.2 -0.2
Fordsons 918 22 +68 7 6.7 +0.3
Dundalk 777 21 -156 4 6.1 -2.1
Brideville 813 19 -38 3 4.7 -1.7
St. James Gate 617 14 -1 3 2.7 +0.3
Jacobs 517 9 +4 3 2.3 +0.7
Bray Unknowns 474 6 +31 4 3.1 +0.9
Athlone Town 422 5 -27 1 1.9 -0.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AT BOH BU BRI DUN FOR JAC SR SHE SJG
Athlone Town —
0-0-2
0.55
1-0-1
2.84
0-0-2
1.86
0-0-2
2.13
0-0-2
0.99
1-0-1
2.12
0-0-2
0.58
0-0-2
0.84
0-1-1
1.59
Bohemian
2-0-0
5.07
 —
2-0-0
4.79
2-0-0
4.04
2-0-0
4.01
1-0-1
4.21
2-0-0
4.49
1-1-0
2.95
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
4.72
Bray Unknowns
1-0-1
2.74
0-0-2
0.82
 —
0-1-1
1.34
0-0-2
0.83
0-0-2
1.71
0-2-0
2.34
0-0-2
0.81
0-0-2
0.53
0-1-1
1.67
Brideville
2-0-0
3.72
0-0-2
1.55
1-1-0
4.25
 —
0-0-2
2.45
1-1-0
1.78
1-1-0
4.25
0-2-0
1.12
0-0-2
1.39
2-0-0
2.00
Dundalk
2-0-0
3.45
0-0-2
1.57
2-0-0
4.77
2-0-0
3.13
 —
0-1-1
2.91
2-0-0
4.50
0-1-1
2.04
0-1-1
1.98
1-0-1
3.95
Fordsons
2-0-0
4.60
1-0-1
1.37
2-0-0
3.88
0-1-1
3.80
1-1-0
2.67
 —
1-1-0
4.65
0-1-1
1.77
1-0-1
1.87
1-0-1
3.59
Jacobs
1-0-1
3.46
0-0-2
1.11
0-2-0
3.23
0-1-1
1.33
0-0-2
1.08
0-1-1
0.94
 —
0-0-2
0.74
0-0-2
0.94
1-1-0
1.94
Shamrock Rovers
2-0-0
5.03
0-1-1
2.62
2-0-0
4.79
0-2-0
4.46
1-1-0
3.54
1-1-0
3.81
2-0-0
4.85
 —
0-1-1
2.78
1-1-0
4.47
Shelbourne
2-0-0
4.76
1-0-1
2.67
2-0-0
5.08
2-0-0
4.20
1-1-0
3.60
1-0-1
3.71
2-0-0
4.66
1-1-0
2.80
 —
1-0-1
4.46
St. James Gate
1-1-0
3.99
0-0-2
0.87
1-1-0
3.91
0-0-2
3.58
1-0-1
1.63
1-0-1
2.00
0-1-1
3.63
0-1-1
1.12
1-0-1
1.14
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.80 +5.4
Allowed 0.88 -5.1
Differential 0.97 +3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%1.11%3.89%0.56%1.67%3.33%17.22%
11.11%4.44%6.67%5.56%3.33%2.22%23.33%
23.89%6.67%5.56%2.78%3.33%4.44%26.67%
30.56%5.56%2.78%3.33%—1.11%13.33%
41.67%3.33%3.33%———8.33%
5+3.33%2.22%4.44%1.11%——11.11%
Total17.22%23.33%26.67%13.33%8.33%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.13 2.13 +0.00
SD 1.75 1.75 2.69
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
1——11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%38.89%
2—11.11%——5.56%16.67%33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%16.67%16.67%16.67%16.67%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 3.39 -2.33
SD 0.80 2.28 2.22
CV 0.76 0.67 —
Max 2 9 +1
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1———————
211.11%16.67%—5.56%——33.33%
3——11.11%———11.11%
45.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
5+—16.67%————16.67%
Total22.22%50.00%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.94 1.11 +1.83
SD 1.55 0.83 1.76
CV 0.53 0.75 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———5.56%5.56%16.67%
1——5.56%16.67%—11.11%33.33%
2——5.56%——22.22%27.78%
3———11.11%—5.56%16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%—16.67%27.78%5.56%44.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 3.89 -2.28
SD 1.14 1.94 2.11
CV 0.71 0.50 —
Max 4 8 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
1—11.11%11.11%—11.11%—33.33%
2——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+——11.11%———11.11%
Total11.11%27.78%44.44%—16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.83 +0.22
SD 1.66 1.20 1.86
CV 0.81 0.65 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
15.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
25.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
Total16.67%22.22%27.78%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 2.00 +0.44
SD 1.76 1.46 2.45
CV 0.72 0.73 —
Max 7 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
1—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
211.11%5.56%16.67%—5.56%—38.89%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+11.11%—11.11%———22.22%
Total22.22%11.11%50.00%—11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.89 +0.67
SD 1.65 1.57 2.52
CV 0.65 0.83 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%5.56%—11.11%38.89%
1—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%22.22%27.78%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.56 -1.44
SD 1.18 1.76 2.25
CV 1.06 0.69 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—5.56%———22.22%
1—11.11%————11.11%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
3—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+11.11%—5.56%———16.67%
Total38.89%33.33%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.00 +1.28
SD 1.74 1.03 1.99
CV 0.76 1.03 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
Total27.78%22.22%38.89%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.72 1.33 +2.39
SD 2.67 1.03 2.89
CV 0.72 0.77 —
Max 9 3 +8
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%————5.56%16.67%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
2—11.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
3—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%11.11%16.67%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 2.33 -0.78
SD 1.04 1.71 2.07
CV 0.67 0.73 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shelbourne 1163 28 25.51 +2.49 84.0% 18 20 23 26 28 31 33
Bohemian 1087 31 25.72 +5.28 100.0% 21 22 24 26 28 29 31
Shamrock Rovers 1043 25 25.83 -0.83 47.0% 16 19 24 26 28 32 34
Fordsons 918 22 19.68 +2.32 83.0% 12 15 17 20 22 25 29
Brideville 813 19 16.45 +2.55 82.0% 9 11 14 16 19 22 25
Dundalk 777 21 19.78 +1.22 72.0% 12 14 17 20 22 25 27
St. James Gate 617 14 16.26 -2.26 33.0% 8 11 14 16 18 22 24
Jacobs 517 9 10.89 -1.89 40.0% 5 6 9 10 13 16 22
Bray Unknowns 474 6 10.08 -4.08 8.0% 3 5 8 10 12 15 18
Athlone Town 422 5 9.80 -4.80 10.0% 2 5 8 10 12 15 19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.78%
Clear Edge
48.89%20.00%31.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
169 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
062.43500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.40 goals
Neutral
-2+0.37+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
27%
Bohemian, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Comfortable
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.52 * Some Luck: 2.52 to 3.77 * Lucky: 3.77 to 5.03 * Wild Swing: 5.03 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.84 * Close: 0.84 to 1.26 * Off: 1.26 to 1.68 * Way Off: 1.68 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.11 points
Some Luck
03.148
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Pinpoint
01.052.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Bohemian
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.00%
Bray Unknowns
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 268.42
2.41
Wide Separation
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
94%
Wide Edge
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
41%
Few
0%42%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.47
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.57
Lopsided
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.16
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.68
Strong Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.81
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.23
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.099
Well Within Noise
00.1540.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Bohemian27.00%39.00%28.00%6.00%——————
Shelbourne36.00%26.00%23.00%8.00%6.00%1.00%————
Shamrock Rovers34.00%25.00%27.00%9.00%2.00%3.00%————
Fordsons2.00%4.00%6.00%29.00%32.00%21.00%4.00%2.00%——
Dundalk1.00%5.00%15.00%28.00%22.00%19.00%8.00%1.00%1.00%—
Brideville—1.00%1.00%8.00%21.00%30.00%33.00%4.00%2.00%—
St. James Gate———11.00%15.00%21.00%37.00%9.00%5.00%2.00%
Jacobs———1.00%2.00%3.00%6.00%33.00%31.00%24.00%
Bray Unknowns—————2.00%6.00%25.00%29.00%38.00%
Athlone Town——————6.00%26.00%32.00%36.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Athlone Town 100%
Bohemian 100%
Bray Unknowns 100%
Brideville 100%
Dundalk 100%
Fordsons 100%
Jacobs 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
St. James Gate 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1927-08-20 Dundalk L 2-548.6 742 734 52.68% 21.18% 26.14%+0.41 -79.7 0
1927-08-20 @ Athlone Town W 5-248.6 734 742 26.14% 21.18% 52.68%-0.41 +79.7 2
1927-08-20 Fordsons L 2-544.6 705 800 39.24% 21.20% 39.56%-0.19 -62.0 0
1927-08-20 @ Bray Unknowns W 5-244.6 800 705 39.56% 21.20% 39.24%+0.19 +62.0 2
1927-08-20 Bohemian L 1-438.0 680 844 29.96% 21.14% 48.90%-0.60 -57.6 0
1927-08-20 @ Brideville W 4-138.0 844 680 48.90% 21.14% 29.96%+0.60 +57.6 2
1927-08-20 Shelbourne W 3-147.8 720 943 23.04% 21.04% 55.92%-0.95 +68.8 2
1927-08-20 @ St. James Gate L 1-347.8 943 720 55.92% 21.04% 23.04%+0.95 -68.8 0
1927-08-21 Jacobs W 3-132.6 980 684 73.57% 20.39% 6.03%+2.13 +9.7 2
1927-08-21 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-332.6 684 980 6.03% 20.39% 73.57%-2.13 -9.7 0
1927-08-27 Shamrock Rovers L 2-536.4 643 990 12.54% 20.69% 66.77%-1.69 -23.5 0
1927-08-27 @ Bray Unknowns W 5-236.4 990 643 66.77% 20.69% 12.54%+1.69 +23.5 4
1927-08-27 St. James Gate W 4-250.1 623 789 29.58% 21.14% 49.28%-0.62 +54.7 2
1927-08-27 @ Brideville L 2-450.1 789 623 49.28% 21.14% 29.58%+0.62 -54.7 2
1927-08-27 Dundalk D 2-256.2 862 814 57.13% 21.13% 21.74%+0.65 -4.6 3
1927-08-27 @ Fordsons D 2-256.2 814 862 21.74% 21.13% 57.13%-0.65 +4.6 3
1927-08-27 Bohemian L 1-435.7 674 901 22.54% 21.03% 56.43%-0.98 -45.4 0
1927-08-27 @ Jacobs W 4-135.7 901 674 56.43% 21.03% 22.54%+0.98 +45.4 4
1927-08-27 Athlone Town W 9-128.5 874 662 69.80% 20.73% 9.47%+1.63 +51.5 2
1927-08-27 @ Shelbourne L 1-928.5 662 874 9.47% 20.73% 69.80%-1.63 -51.5 0
1927-09-03 Brideville L 2-545.8 610 678 43.12% 21.21% 35.67%-0.03 -66.9 0
1927-09-03 @ Athlone Town W 5-245.8 678 610 35.67% 21.21% 43.12%+0.03 +66.9 4
1927-09-03 Bohemian L 1-531.4 620 947 13.87% 20.76% 65.37%-1.57 -38.3 0
1927-09-03 @ Bray Unknowns W 5-131.4 947 620 65.37% 20.76% 13.87%+1.57 +38.3 6
1927-09-03 St. James Gate D 0-049.3 628 734 37.64% 21.20% 41.17%-0.26 +0.6 1
1927-09-03 @ Jacobs D 0-049.3 734 628 41.17% 21.20% 37.64%+0.26 -0.6 3
1927-09-04 Shelbourne L 2-446.6 819 926 37.48% 21.20% 41.32%-0.26 -43.6 3
1927-09-04 @ Dundalk W 4-246.6 926 819 41.32% 21.20% 37.48%+0.26 +43.6 4
1927-09-04 Fordsons W 2-030.7 1013 857 66.41% 20.90% 12.69%+1.30 +22.5 6
1927-09-04 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-230.7 857 1013 12.69% 20.90% 66.41%-1.30 -22.5 3
1927-09-10 St. James Gate L 1-340.4 581 734 31.32% 21.16% 47.52%-0.53 -42.2 0
1927-09-10 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-140.4 734 581 47.52% 21.16% 31.32%+0.53 +42.2 5
1927-09-10 Athlone Town W 4-134.4 629 544 60.81% 21.07% 18.12%+0.88 +37.7 3
1927-09-10 @ Jacobs L 1-434.4 544 629 18.12% 21.07% 60.81%-0.88 -37.7 0
1927-09-10 Bohemian D 0-049.4 1036 985 57.47% 21.13% 21.40%+0.67 -7.1 7
1927-09-10 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-049.4 985 1036 21.40% 21.13% 57.47%-0.67 +7.1 7
1927-09-11 Dundalk L 1-443.4 745 775 48.03% 21.20% 30.77%+0.19 -84.6 4
1927-09-11 @ Brideville W 4-143.4 775 745 30.77% 21.20% 48.03%-0.19 +84.6 5
1927-09-11 Shelbourne W 2-146.7 835 970 33.65% 21.18% 45.18%-0.43 +32.8 5
1927-09-11 @ Fordsons L 1-246.7 970 835 45.18% 21.18% 33.65%+0.43 -32.8 4
1927-09-17 Bray Unknowns W 2-142.5 506 539 47.70% 21.20% 31.10%+0.17 +24.2 2
1927-09-17 @ Athlone Town L 1-242.5 539 506 31.10% 21.20% 47.70%-0.17 -24.2 0
1927-09-17 Fordsons W 4-027.5 992 867 64.11% 20.98% 14.91%+1.11 +49.2 9
1927-09-17 @ Bohemian L 0-427.5 867 992 14.91% 20.98% 64.11%-1.11 -49.2 5
1927-09-17 Brideville W 1-031.5 937 660 72.80% 20.48% 6.71%+2.01 +6.6 6
1927-09-17 @ Shelbourne L 0-131.5 660 937 6.71% 20.48% 72.80%-2.01 -6.6 4
1927-09-18 Jacobs W 2-030.0 860 667 68.72% 20.79% 10.49%+1.51 +18.9 7
1927-09-18 @ Dundalk L 0-230.0 667 860 10.49% 20.79% 68.72%-1.51 -18.9 3
1927-09-18 Shamrock Rovers D 1-152.1 776 1029 20.01% 20.98% 59.01%-1.13 +6.9 6
1927-09-18 @ St. James Gate D 1-152.1 1029 776 59.01% 20.98% 20.01%+1.13 -6.9 8
1927-09-24 St. James Gate W 5-129.4 1041 783 72.03% 20.56% 7.41%+1.90 +21.6 11
1927-09-24 @ Bohemian L 1-529.4 783 1041 7.41% 20.56% 72.03%-1.90 -21.6 6
1927-09-24 Dundalk L 3-735.5 515 879 11.49% 20.63% 67.88%-1.79 -25.0 0
1927-09-24 @ Bray Unknowns W 7-335.5 879 515 67.88% 20.63% 11.49%+1.79 +25.0 9
1927-09-24 Brideville D 1-152.2 818 653 66.97% 20.88% 12.15%+1.35 -10.1 6
1927-09-24 @ Fordsons D 1-152.2 653 818 12.15% 20.88% 66.97%-1.35 +10.1 5
1927-09-24 Shelbourne L 0-728.2 648 943 16.26% 20.86% 62.88%-1.38 -89.8 3
1927-09-24 @ Jacobs W 7-028.2 943 648 62.88% 20.86% 16.26%+1.38 +89.8 8
1927-09-24 Athlone Town W 3-131.1 1022 530 78.58% 19.34% 2.08%+3.29 +3.4 10
1927-09-24 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-331.1 530 1022 2.08% 19.34% 78.58%-3.29 -3.4 2
1927-10-01 Bohemian L 1-234.1 527 1063 4.59% 19.82% 75.59%-2.81 -4.3 2
1927-10-01 @ Athlone Town W 2-134.1 1063 527 75.59% 19.82% 4.59%+2.81 +4.2 13
1927-10-01 Bray Unknowns W 8-227.5 1033 490 79.43% 19.00% 1.57%+3.59 +5.5 10
1927-10-01 @ Shelbourne L 2-827.5 490 1033 1.57% 19.00% 79.43%-3.59 -5.5 0
1927-10-01 Fordsons W 2-143.0 761 808 45.93% 21.21% 32.87%+0.09 +25.4 8
1927-10-01 @ St. James Gate L 1-243.0 808 761 32.87% 21.21% 45.93%-0.09 -25.4 6
1927-10-02 Jacobs W 3-242.4 663 558 62.54% 21.03% 16.43%+0.99 +13.4 7
1927-10-02 @ Brideville L 2-342.4 558 663 16.43% 21.03% 62.54%-0.99 -13.4 3
1927-10-02 Shamrock Rovers D 3-360.4 904 1025 35.46% 21.19% 43.36%-0.35 +0.8 10
1927-10-02 @ Dundalk D 3-360.4 1025 904 43.36% 21.19% 35.46%+0.35 -0.8 11
1927-10-08 Dundalk W 2-030.6 1067 904 66.83% 20.88% 12.28%+1.33 +21.8 15
1927-10-08 @ Bohemian L 0-230.6 904 1067 12.28% 20.88% 66.83%-1.33 -21.8 10
1927-10-08 Brideville L 1-338.9 484 677 26.39% 21.10% 52.51%-0.77 -36.7 0
1927-10-08 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-138.9 677 484 52.51% 21.10% 26.39%+0.77 +36.7 9
1927-10-08 Jacobs W 4-237.7 783 545 71.09% 20.63% 8.27%+1.78 +11.7 8
1927-10-08 @ Fordsons L 2-437.7 545 783 8.27% 20.63% 71.09%-1.78 -11.7 3
1927-10-08 Shelbourne D 1-152.1 1024 1039 50.11% 21.19% 28.70%+0.29 -3.6 12
1927-10-08 @ Shamrock Rovers D 1-152.1 1039 1024 28.70% 21.19% 50.11%-0.29 +3.6 11
1927-10-08 Athlone Town W 3-133.0 787 522 72.28% 20.53% 7.19%+1.94 +11.5 10
1927-10-08 @ St. James Gate L 1-333.0 522 787 7.19% 20.53% 72.28%-1.94 -11.5 2
1927-10-15 Fordsons L 0-232.1 511 794 17.26% 20.90% 61.84%-1.31 -29.4 2
1927-10-15 @ Athlone Town W 2-032.1 794 511 61.84% 20.90% 17.26%+1.31 +29.4 10
1927-10-15 Bray Unknowns D 3-360.5 533 448 60.80% 21.07% 18.13%+0.88 -4.7 4
1927-10-15 @ Jacobs D 3-360.5 448 533 18.13% 21.07% 60.80%-0.88 +4.7 1
1927-10-15 Bohemian L 1-246.9 1042 1089 45.92% 21.21% 32.87%+0.09 -33.2 11
1927-10-15 @ Shelbourne W 2-146.9 1089 1042 32.87% 21.21% 45.92%-0.09 +33.2 17
1927-10-16 Shamrock Rovers D 0-049.4 714 1021 15.32% 20.82% 63.85%-1.45 +9.8 10
1927-10-16 @ Brideville D 0-049.4 1021 714 63.85% 20.82% 15.32%+1.45 -9.8 13
1927-10-16 St. James Gate W 4-134.4 883 798 60.72% 21.07% 18.21%+0.87 +37.9 12
1927-10-16 @ Dundalk L 1-434.4 798 883 18.21% 21.07% 60.72%-0.87 -37.9 10
1927-10-22 Bray Unknowns W 5-233.7 824 452 75.95% 20.03% 4.02%+2.57 +8.0 12
1927-10-22 @ Fordsons L 2-533.7 452 824 4.02% 20.03% 75.95%-2.57 -8.0 1
1927-10-29 Jacobs W 2-026.6 1122 528 80.17% 18.64% 1.19%+3.89 +2.2 19
1927-10-29 @ Bohemian L 0-226.6 528 1122 1.19% 18.64% 80.17%-3.89 -2.2 4
1927-10-29 Fordsons L 2-355.8 921 832 61.11% 21.06% 17.83%+0.90 -41.2 12
1927-10-29 @ Dundalk W 3-255.8 832 921 17.83% 21.06% 61.11%-0.90 +41.2 14
1927-10-29 Bray Unknowns W 5-022.3 1011 444 79.78% 18.84% 1.38%+3.73 +6.0 15
1927-10-29 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-522.3 444 1011 1.38% 18.84% 79.78%-3.73 -6.0 1
1927-10-29 Brideville L 2-549.6 760 723 56.02% 21.15% 22.84%+0.59 -84.5 10
1927-10-29 @ St. James Gate W 5-249.6 723 760 22.84% 21.15% 56.02%-0.59 +84.5 12
1927-11-05 Bray Unknowns W 5-126.6 1124 438 81.33% 17.95% 0.72%+4.44 +2.1 21
1927-11-05 @ Bohemian L 1-526.6 438 1124 0.72% 17.95% 81.33%-4.44 -2.1 1
1927-11-05 Athlone Town W 3-132.3 808 482 74.60% 20.26% 5.14%+2.30 +8.3 14
1927-11-05 @ Brideville L 1-332.3 482 808 5.14% 20.26% 74.60%-2.30 -8.3 2
1927-11-05 Dundalk D 2-256.2 1009 879 64.49% 20.97% 14.54%+1.14 -6.8 12
1927-11-05 @ Shelbourne D 2-256.2 879 1009 14.54% 20.97% 64.49%-1.14 +6.8 13
1927-11-06 Shamrock Rovers D 2-256.2 873 1017 32.42% 21.17% 46.41%-0.48 +1.7 15
1927-11-06 @ Fordsons D 2-256.2 1017 873 46.41% 21.17% 32.42%+0.48 -1.7 16
1927-11-06 Jacobs L 1-252.8 676 526 65.95% 20.92% 13.13%+1.26 -47.0 10
1927-11-06 @ St. James Gate W 2-152.8 526 676 13.13% 20.92% 65.95%-1.26 +47.0 6
1927-11-12 Jacobs W 2-145.2 473 573 38.51% 21.20% 40.29%-0.22 +29.8 4
1927-11-12 @ Athlone Town L 1-245.2 573 473 40.29% 21.20% 38.51%+0.22 -29.8 6
1927-11-12 Shamrock Rovers W 3-242.3 1126 1015 63.02% 21.01% 15.96%+1.03 +13.1 23
1927-11-12 @ Bohemian L 2-342.3 1015 1126 15.96% 21.01% 63.02%-1.03 -13.1 16
1927-11-12 Fordsons W 6-339.6 1002 875 64.33% 20.98% 14.70%+1.13 +25.2 14
1927-11-12 @ Shelbourne L 3-639.6 875 1002 14.70% 20.98% 64.33%-1.13 -25.2 15
1927-11-12 Bray Unknowns D 3-360.6 629 436 68.69% 20.79% 10.51%+1.51 -6.7 11
1927-11-12 @ St. James Gate D 3-360.6 436 629 10.51% 20.79% 68.69%-1.51 +6.7 2
1927-11-13 Brideville W 2-139.0 886 816 59.37% 21.10% 19.53%+0.79 +16.4 15
1927-11-13 @ Dundalk L 1-239.0 816 886 19.53% 21.10% 59.37%-0.79 -16.4 14
1927-11-15 Shelbourne L 2-729.9 503 1027 4.89% 19.88% 75.22%-2.74 -14.7 4
1927-11-15 @ Athlone Town W 7-229.9 1027 503 75.22% 19.88% 4.89%+2.74 +14.7 16
1927-11-19 Dundalk L 0-328.0 543 903 11.76% 20.65% 67.59%-1.76 -30.3 6
1927-11-19 @ Jacobs W 3-028.0 903 543 67.59% 20.65% 11.76%+1.76 +30.3 17
1927-11-20 Athlone Town W 4-245.2 443 488 46.09% 21.21% 32.70%+0.10 +39.1 4
1927-11-20 @ Bray Unknowns L 2-445.2 488 443 32.70% 21.21% 46.09%-0.10 -39.1 4
1927-11-20 Bohemian W 2-045.6 849 1140 16.70% 20.88% 62.42%-1.35 +88.6 17
1927-11-20 @ Fordsons L 0-245.6 1140 849 62.42% 20.88% 16.70%+1.35 -88.6 23
1927-11-20 St. James Gate W 2-133.9 1002 622 76.18% 19.99% 3.83%+2.62 +3.6 18
1927-11-20 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-233.9 622 1002 3.83% 19.99% 76.18%-2.62 -3.6 11
1927-11-26 Shamrock Rovers L 0-423.9 449 1006 4.11% 19.70% 76.19%-2.93 -14.5 4
1927-11-26 @ Athlone Town W 4-023.9 1006 449 76.19% 19.70% 4.11%+2.93 +14.5 20
1927-11-26 Fordsons W 4-249.0 800 938 33.18% 21.17% 45.65%-0.45 +51.2 16
1927-11-26 @ Brideville L 2-449.0 938 800 45.65% 21.17% 33.18%+0.45 -51.2 17
1927-11-26 Bray Unknowns W 3-131.4 933 482 77.81% 19.59% 2.61%+3.04 +4.2 19
1927-11-26 @ Dundalk L 1-331.4 482 933 2.61% 19.59% 77.81%-3.04 -4.2 4
1927-11-26 Jacobs W 5-022.4 1042 513 79.21% 19.09% 1.70%+3.51 +7.4 18
1927-11-26 @ Shelbourne L 0-522.4 513 1042 1.70% 19.09% 79.21%-3.51 -7.4 6
1927-11-26 Bohemian L 2-339.7 618 1051 8.01% 20.35% 71.64%-2.19 -6.9 11
1927-11-26 @ St. James Gate W 3-239.7 1051 618 71.64% 20.35% 8.01%+2.19 +6.9 25
1927-11-30 Shelbourne L 1-240.8 851 1050 25.70% 21.09% 53.21%-0.81 -20.7 16
1927-11-30 @ Brideville W 2-140.8 1050 851 53.21% 21.09% 25.70%+0.81 +20.7 20
1927-12-03 Athlone Town W 2-132.6 1058 435 80.55% 18.43% 1.01%+4.06 +0.9 27
1927-12-03 @ Bohemian L 1-232.6 435 1058 1.01% 18.43% 80.55%-4.06 -0.9 4
1927-12-03 St. James Gate W 5-024.4 887 611 72.75% 20.49% 6.77%+2.00 +29.3 19
1927-12-03 @ Fordsons L 0-524.4 611 887 6.77% 20.49% 72.75%-2.00 -29.2 11
1927-12-03 Brideville D 1-152.2 506 830 14.05% 20.77% 65.18%-1.55 +9.3 7
1927-12-03 @ Jacobs D 1-152.2 830 506 65.18% 20.77% 14.05%+1.55 -9.3 17
1927-12-04 Shelbourne L 0-423.6 478 1070 3.38% 19.49% 77.13%-3.14 -11.9 4
1927-12-04 @ Bray Unknowns W 4-023.6 1070 478 77.13% 19.49% 3.38%+3.14 +11.9 22
1927-12-04 Dundalk W 5-028.0 1020 937 60.60% 21.07% 18.33%+0.86 +72.8 22
1927-12-04 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-528.0 937 1020 18.33% 21.07% 60.60%-0.86 -72.8 19
1927-12-10 St. James Gate D 0-049.3 434 582 31.86% 21.16% 46.98%-0.51 +2.8 5
1927-12-10 @ Athlone Town D 0-049.3 582 434 46.98% 21.16% 31.86%+0.51 -2.8 12
1927-12-10 Bohemian L 1-436.8 864 1059 26.18% 21.10% 52.72%-0.78 -51.5 19
1927-12-10 @ Dundalk W 4-136.8 1059 864 52.72% 21.10% 26.18%+0.78 +51.5 29
1927-12-10 Fordsons D 2-256.4 515 916 9.45% 20.48% 70.07%-2.01 +8.5 8
1927-12-10 @ Jacobs D 2-256.4 916 515 70.07% 20.48% 9.45%+2.01 -8.5 20
1927-12-10 Shamrock Rovers W 2-035.5 1082 1093 50.51% 21.19% 28.30%+0.31 +44.9 24
1927-12-10 @ Shelbourne L 0-235.5 1093 1082 28.30% 21.19% 50.51%-0.31 -44.9 22
1927-12-11 Bray Unknowns D 2-256.5 821 466 75.48% 20.12% 4.40%+2.47 -10.3 18
1927-12-11 @ Brideville D 2-256.5 466 821 4.40% 20.12% 75.48%-2.47 +10.3 5
1927-12-17 Shelbourne L 2-352.5 1110 1127 49.79% 21.20% 29.01%+0.27 -33.8 29
1927-12-17 @ Bohemian W 3-252.5 1127 1110 29.01% 21.20% 49.79%-0.27 +33.9 26
1927-12-17 Athlone Town W 5-022.7 908 437 78.20% 19.47% 2.33%+3.16 +10.2 22
1927-12-17 @ Fordsons L 0-522.7 437 908 2.33% 19.47% 78.20%-3.16 -10.2 5
1927-12-18 Jacobs D 0-049.3 476 523 45.86% 21.21% 32.93%+0.09 -2.4 6
1927-12-18 @ Bray Unknowns D 0-049.3 523 476 32.93% 21.21% 45.86%-0.09 +2.4 9
1927-12-18 Brideville D 0-049.5 1048 811 71.08% 20.64% 8.29%+1.78 -13.3 23
1927-12-18 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-049.5 811 1048 8.29% 20.64% 71.08%-1.78 +13.3 19
1927-12-18 Dundalk W 2-150.2 579 813 21.93% 21.02% 57.05%-1.01 +40.5 14
1927-12-18 @ St. James Gate L 1-250.2 813 579 57.05% 21.02% 21.93%+1.01 -40.5 19
1927-12-31 Brideville W 4-237.5 1076 824 71.77% 20.58% 7.65%+1.87 +10.9 31
1927-12-31 @ Bohemian L 2-437.5 824 1076 7.65% 20.58% 71.77%-1.87 -10.9 19
1927-12-31 St. James Gate W 3-130.9 1161 620 79.40% 19.01% 1.59%+3.58 +2.6 28
1927-12-31 @ Shelbourne L 1-330.9 620 1161 1.59% 19.01% 79.40%-3.58 -2.6 14
1928-01-01 Athlone Town W 1-030.7 772 426 75.22% 20.16% 4.62%+2.42 +4.6 21
1928-01-01 @ Dundalk L 0-130.7 426 772 4.62% 20.16% 75.22%-2.42 -4.6 5
1928-01-01 Shamrock Rovers L 1-332.3 526 1035 5.31% 19.97% 74.72%-2.65 -8.5 9
1928-01-01 @ Jacobs W 3-132.3 1035 526 74.72% 19.97% 5.31%+2.65 +8.5 25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1927-11-06 13.13% Jacobs 526 2 @ St. James Gate 676 1
2 1927-11-20 16.70% @ Fordsons 849 2 Bohemian 1140 0
3 1927-10-29 17.83% Fordsons 832 3 @ Dundalk 921 2
4 1927-12-18 21.93% @ St. James Gate 579 2 Dundalk 813 1
5 1927-10-29 22.84% Brideville 723 5 @ St. James Gate 760 2
6 1927-08-20 23.04% @ St. James Gate 720 3 Shelbourne 943 1
7 1927-08-20 26.14% Dundalk 734 5 @ Athlone Town 742 2
8 1927-12-17 29.01% Shelbourne 1127 3 @ Bohemian 1110 2
9 1927-08-27 29.58% @ Brideville 623 4 St. James Gate 789 2
10 1927-09-11 30.77% Dundalk 775 4 @ Brideville 745 1
11 1927-10-15 32.87% Bohemian 1089 2 @ Shelbourne 1042 1
12 1927-11-26 33.18% @ Brideville 800 4 Fordsons 938 2
13 1927-09-11 33.65% @ Fordsons 835 2 Shelbourne 970 1
14 1927-09-03 35.67% Brideville 678 5 @ Athlone Town 610 2
15 1927-11-12 38.51% @ Athlone Town 473 2 Jacobs 573 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1927-09-24 89.81 Shelbourne 7 943 62.88% @ Jacobs 0 648 16.26% 20.86%
2 1927-11-20 88.60 @ Fordsons 2 849 16.70% Bohemian 0 1140 62.42% 20.88%
3 1927-09-11 84.65 Dundalk 4 775 30.77% @ Brideville 1 745 48.03% 21.20%
4 1927-10-29 84.47 Brideville 5 723 22.84% @ St. James Gate 2 760 56.02% 21.15%
5 1927-08-20 79.70 Dundalk 5 734 26.14% @ Athlone Town 2 742 52.68% 21.18%
6 1927-12-04 72.75 @ Shamrock Rovers 5 1020 60.60% Dundalk 0 937 18.33% 21.07%
7 1927-08-20 68.79 @ St. James Gate 3 720 23.04% Shelbourne 1 943 55.92% 21.04%
8 1927-09-03 66.87 Brideville 5 678 35.67% @ Athlone Town 2 610 43.12% 21.21%
9 1927-08-20 61.96 Fordsons 5 800 39.56% @ Bray Unknowns 2 705 39.24% 21.20%
10 1927-08-20 57.59 Bohemian 4 844 48.90% @ Brideville 1 680 29.96% 21.14%
11 1927-08-27 54.74 @ Brideville 4 623 29.58% St. James Gate 2 789 49.28% 21.14%
12 1927-08-27 51.53 @ Shelbourne 9 874 69.80% Athlone Town 1 662 9.47% 20.73%
13 1927-12-10 51.52 Bohemian 4 1059 52.72% @ Dundalk 1 864 26.18% 21.10%
14 1927-11-26 51.21 @ Brideville 4 800 33.18% Fordsons 2 938 45.65% 21.17%
15 1927-09-17 49.25 @ Bohemian 4 992 64.11% Fordsons 0 867 14.91% 20.98%
16 1927-11-06 47.02 Jacobs 2 526 13.13% @ St. James Gate 1 676 65.95% 20.92%
17 1927-08-27 45.41 Bohemian 4 901 56.43% @ Jacobs 1 674 22.54% 21.03%
18 1927-12-10 44.90 @ Shelbourne 2 1082 50.51% Shamrock Rovers 0 1093 28.30% 21.19%
19 1927-09-04 43.64 Shelbourne 4 926 41.32% @ Dundalk 2 819 37.48% 21.20%
20 1927-09-10 42.23 St. James Gate 3 734 47.52% @ Bray Unknowns 1 581 31.32% 21.16%
21 1927-10-29 41.19 Fordsons 3 832 17.83% @ Dundalk 2 921 61.11% 21.06%
22 1927-12-18 40.49 @ St. James Gate 2 579 21.93% Dundalk 1 813 57.05% 21.02%
23 1927-11-20 39.14 @ Bray Unknowns 4 443 46.09% Athlone Town 2 488 32.70% 21.21%
24 1927-09-03 38.32 Bohemian 5 947 65.37% @ Bray Unknowns 1 620 13.87% 20.76%
25 1927-10-16 37.89 @ Dundalk 4 883 60.72% St. James Gate 1 798 18.21% 21.07%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1927-11-12 60.6 @ St. James Gate 3 629 68.69% Bray Unknowns 3 436 10.51% 20.79%
2 1927-10-15 60.5 @ Jacobs 3 533 60.80% Bray Unknowns 3 448 18.13% 21.07%
3 1927-10-02 60.4 @ Dundalk 3 904 35.46% Shamrock Rovers 3 1025 43.36% 21.19%
4 1927-12-11 56.5 @ Brideville 2 821 75.48% Bray Unknowns 2 466 4.40% 20.12%
5 1927-12-10 56.4 @ Jacobs 2 515 9.45% Fordsons 2 916 70.07% 20.48%
6 1927-08-27 56.2 @ Fordsons 2 862 57.13% Dundalk 2 814 21.74% 21.13%
7 1927-11-05 56.2 @ Shelbourne 2 1009 64.49% Dundalk 2 879 14.54% 20.97%
8 1927-11-06 56.2 @ Fordsons 2 873 32.42% Shamrock Rovers 2 1017 46.41% 21.17%
9 1927-10-29 55.8 Fordsons 3 832 17.83% @ Dundalk 2 921 61.11% 21.06%
10 1927-11-06 52.8 Jacobs 2 526 13.13% @ St. James Gate 1 676 65.95% 20.92%
11 1927-12-17 52.5 Shelbourne 3 1127 29.01% @ Bohemian 2 1110 49.79% 21.20%
12 1927-09-24 52.2 @ Fordsons 1 818 66.97% Brideville 1 653 12.15% 20.88%
13 1927-12-03 52.2 @ Jacobs 1 506 14.05% Brideville 1 830 65.18% 20.77%
14 1927-09-18 52.1 @ St. James Gate 1 776 20.01% Shamrock Rovers 1 1029 59.01% 20.98%
15 1927-10-08 52.1 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1024 50.11% Shelbourne 1 1039 28.70% 21.19%
16 1927-12-18 50.2 @ St. James Gate 2 579 21.93% Dundalk 1 813 57.05% 21.02%
17 1927-08-27 50.1 @ Brideville 4 623 29.58% St. James Gate 2 789 49.28% 21.14%
18 1927-10-29 49.6 Brideville 5 723 22.84% @ St. James Gate 2 760 56.02% 21.15%
19 1927-12-18 49.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1048 71.08% Brideville 0 811 8.29% 20.64%
20 1927-09-10 49.4 @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1036 57.47% Bohemian 0 985 21.40% 21.13%
21 1927-10-16 49.4 @ Brideville 0 714 15.32% Shamrock Rovers 0 1021 63.85% 20.82%
22 1927-09-03 49.3 @ Jacobs 0 628 37.64% St. James Gate 0 734 41.17% 21.20%
23 1927-12-10 49.3 @ Athlone Town 0 434 31.86% St. James Gate 0 582 46.98% 21.16%
24 1927-12-18 49.3 @ Bray Unknowns 0 476 45.86% Jacobs 0 523 32.93% 21.21%
25 1927-11-26 49.0 @ Brideville 4 800 33.18% Fordsons 2 938 45.65% 21.17%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1927-10-29 22.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 5 1011 79.78% Bray Unknowns 0 444 1.38% 18.84%
2 1927-11-26 22.4 @ Shelbourne 5 1042 79.21% Jacobs 0 513 1.70% 19.09%
3 1927-12-17 22.7 @ Fordsons 5 908 78.20% Athlone Town 0 437 2.33% 19.47%
4 1927-12-04 23.6 Shelbourne 4 1070 77.13% @ Bray Unknowns 0 478 3.38% 19.49%
5 1927-11-26 23.9 Shamrock Rovers 4 1006 76.19% @ Athlone Town 0 449 4.11% 19.70%
6 1927-12-03 24.4 @ Fordsons 5 887 72.75% St. James Gate 0 611 6.77% 20.49%
7 1927-10-29 26.6 @ Bohemian 2 1122 80.17% Jacobs 0 528 1.19% 18.64%
8 1927-11-05 26.6 @ Bohemian 5 1124 81.33% Bray Unknowns 1 438 0.72% 17.95%
9 1927-09-17 27.5 @ Bohemian 4 992 64.11% Fordsons 0 867 14.91% 20.98%
10 1927-10-01 27.5 @ Shelbourne 8 1033 79.43% Bray Unknowns 2 490 1.57% 19.00%
11 1927-11-19 28.0 Dundalk 3 903 67.59% @ Jacobs 0 543 11.76% 20.65%
12 1927-12-04 28.0 @ Shamrock Rovers 5 1020 60.60% Dundalk 0 937 18.33% 21.07%
13 1927-09-24 28.2 Shelbourne 7 943 62.88% @ Jacobs 0 648 16.26% 20.86%
14 1927-08-27 28.5 @ Shelbourne 9 874 69.80% Athlone Town 1 662 9.47% 20.73%
15 1927-09-24 29.4 @ Bohemian 5 1041 72.03% St. James Gate 1 783 7.41% 20.56%
16 1927-11-15 29.9 Shelbourne 7 1027 75.22% @ Athlone Town 2 503 4.89% 19.88%
17 1927-09-18 30.0 @ Dundalk 2 860 68.72% Jacobs 0 667 10.49% 20.79%
18 1927-10-08 30.6 @ Bohemian 2 1067 66.83% Dundalk 0 904 12.28% 20.88%
19 1927-09-04 30.7 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1013 66.41% Fordsons 0 857 12.69% 20.90%
20 1928-01-01 30.7 @ Dundalk 1 772 75.22% Athlone Town 0 426 4.62% 20.16%
21 1927-12-31 30.9 @ Shelbourne 3 1161 79.40% St. James Gate 1 620 1.59% 19.01%
22 1927-09-24 31.1 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1022 78.58% Athlone Town 1 530 2.08% 19.34%
23 1927-09-03 31.4 Bohemian 5 947 65.37% @ Bray Unknowns 1 620 13.87% 20.76%
24 1927-11-26 31.4 @ Dundalk 3 933 77.81% Bray Unknowns 1 482 2.61% 19.59%
25 1927-09-17 31.5 @ Shelbourne 1 937 72.80% Brideville 0 660 6.71% 20.48%