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1928-29 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Shelbourne

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Bohemian

6.71 points above expected

32 points · 25.29 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Drumconda

6.06 points below expected

18 points · 24.06 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shelbourne 18 16 1 1 33 49 12 +37 27.47 +5.53
2 Bohemian 18 15 2 1 32 61 23 +38 25.29 +6.71
3 Shamrock Rovers 18 10 4 4 24 58 28 +30 24.02 -0.02
4 Drumconda 18 7 4 7 18 28 31 -3 24.06 -6.06
5 Dundalk 18 7 3 8 17 43 44 -1 16.73 +0.27
6 St. James Gate 18 5 4 9 14 37 44 -7 13.48 +0.52
7 Fordsons 18 5 3 10 13 27 36 -9 17.65 -4.65
8 Brideville 18 4 3 11 11 28 57 -29 13.74 -2.74
9 Jacobs 18 2 6 10 10 26 48 -22 9.27 +0.73
10 Bray Unknowns 18 2 4 12 8 24 58 -34 8.29 -0.29

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bohemian 32 25.29 +6.71
2 Shelbourne 33 27.47 +5.53
3 Jacobs 10 9.27 +0.73
4 St. James Gate 14 13.48 +0.52
5 Dundalk 17 16.73 +0.27

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Drumconda 18 24.06 -6.06
2 Fordsons 13 17.65 -4.65
3 Brideville 11 13.74 -2.74
4 Bray Unknowns 8 8.29 -0.29
5 Shamrock Rovers 24 24.02 -0.02

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 9 Nov 3 – Dec 29 1 in 118
2 Shelbourne 7 Sep 22 – Nov 10 1 in 17
3 St. James Gate 2 Sep 30 – Oct 14 1 in 7
4 Dundalk 3 Sep 2 – Sep 16 1 in 7
5 Bray Unknowns 1 Sep 2 – Sep 2 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bray Unknowns 10 Sep 9 – Nov 18 1 in 72
2 Shamrock Rovers 2 Dec 15 – Dec 23 1 in 48
3 Brideville 4 Sep 16 – Oct 14 1 in 20
4 Fordsons 3 Sep 2 – Sep 15 1 in 11
5 Drumconda 2 Nov 4 – Nov 10 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bray Unknowns 4 Dec 8 – Jan 23 1 in 87
2 Bohemian 15 Sep 15 – Dec 29 1 in 26
3 St. James Gate 2 Sep 9 – Sep 15 1 in 16
4 Jacobs 3 Dec 9 – Dec 23 1 in 9
5 Brideville 3 Dec 16 – Jan 9 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shamrock Rovers 3 Dec 15 – Jan 23 1 in 34
2 Drumconda 3 Aug 26 – Sep 9 1 in 14
3 Fordsons 4 Aug 25 – Sep 15 1 in 12
4 St. James Gate 5 Nov 18 – Dec 16 1 in 7
5 Bray Unknowns 12 Sep 9 – Dec 2 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shelbourne 1535 33 +39 10 8.4 +1.6
Bohemian 1492 32 +61 10 7.8 +2.2
Shamrock Rovers 1398 24 -32 5 7.7 -2.7
Drumconda 1176 18 -131 3 6.2 -3.2
Dundalk 1169 17 +4 3 3.2 -0.2
St. James Gate 1035 14 -10 3 3.7 -0.7
Fordsons 1114 13 -48 3 4.7 -1.7
Brideville 1034 11 +62 5 3.1 +1.9
Jacobs 952 10 -3 3 2.9 +0.1
Bray Unknowns 876 8 +58 5 2.2 +2.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH BU BRI DRU DUN FOR JAC SR SHE SJG
Bohemian —
2-0-0
4.99
2-0-0
4.77
2-0-0
2.89
2-0-0
4.36
2-0-0
4.13
2-0-0
4.99
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.03
1-1-0
4.87
Bray Unknowns
0-0-2
0.65
 —
0-1-1
1.83
0-1-1
0.65
0-0-2
1.35
1-0-1
1.00
0-1-1
2.54
0-1-1
0.55
0-0-2
0.47
1-0-1
1.70
Brideville
0-0-2
0.86
1-1-0
3.77
 —
1-0-1
1.03
0-0-2
2.15
1-0-1
1.84
0-2-0
3.73
0-0-2
1.07
0-0-2
0.92
1-0-1
2.85
Drumconda
0-0-2
2.71
1-1-0
4.99
1-0-1
4.59
 —
1-0-1
3.98
2-0-0
3.76
1-1-0
4.73
0-1-1
3.09
0-0-2
1.69
1-1-0
4.58
Dundalk
0-0-2
1.25
2-0-0
4.26
2-0-0
3.45
1-0-1
1.62
 —
0-2-0
2.88
1-0-1
4.11
0-1-1
1.49
0-0-2
1.00
1-0-1
3.64
Fordsons
0-0-2
1.48
1-0-1
4.62
1-0-1
3.76
0-0-2
1.84
0-2-0
2.72
 —
1-1-0
4.46
0-0-2
1.76
0-0-2
0.87
2-0-0
3.81
Jacobs
0-0-2
0.64
1-1-0
3.06
0-2-0
1.87
0-1-1
0.89
1-0-1
1.50
0-1-1
1.15
 —
0-0-2
0.69
0-0-2
0.51
0-1-1
2.16
Shamrock Rovers
0-1-1
2.63
1-1-0
5.10
2-0-0
4.55
1-1-0
2.51
1-1-0
4.12
2-0-0
3.84
2-0-0
4.95
 —
0-0-2
2.17
1-0-1
4.69
Shelbourne
1-0-1
3.57
2-0-0
5.19
2-0-0
4.71
2-0-0
3.91
2-0-0
4.62
2-0-0
4.75
2-0-0
5.15
2-0-0
3.43
 —
1-1-0
4.97
St. James Gate
0-1-1
0.76
1-0-1
3.91
1-0-1
2.75
0-1-1
1.03
1-0-1
1.96
0-0-2
1.80
1-1-0
3.44
1-0-1
0.94
0-1-1
0.67
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +5.6
Allowed 0.84 -5.5
Differential 0.94 +3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%2.78%1.11%5.00%3.33%1.11%17.78%
12.78%4.44%7.22%3.33%2.22%3.33%23.33%
21.11%7.22%7.78%3.33%2.78%2.78%25.00%
35.00%3.33%3.33%1.11%1.11%1.11%15.00%
43.33%2.22%2.78%1.11%1.11%—10.56%
5+1.11%3.33%2.78%1.11%——8.33%
Total17.78%23.33%25.00%15.00%10.56%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.12 2.12 +0.00
SD 1.78 1.78 2.74
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 11 11 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%——5.56%——11.11%
25.56%22.22%11.11%———38.89%
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%——33.33%
Total27.78%27.78%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.39 1.28 +2.11
SD 2.00 1.02 2.03
CV 0.59 0.80 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—16.67%—5.56%27.78%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
2——11.11%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+———————
Total—22.22%22.22%22.22%16.67%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 3.22 -1.89
SD 1.19 2.41 2.91
CV 0.89 0.75 —
Max 4 11 +2
Min 0 1 -11

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——16.67%11.11%—33.33%
1—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
2—5.56%5.56%—11.11%5.56%27.78%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total5.56%11.11%22.22%22.22%27.78%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 3.17 -1.61
SD 1.50 2.04 2.43
CV 0.97 0.64 —
Max 5 9 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—5.56%11.11%—38.89%
1—5.56%————5.56%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
311.11%—11.11%———22.22%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%33.33%16.67%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.72 -0.17
SD 1.50 1.53 2.31
CV 0.97 0.89 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1—5.56%11.11%—11.11%—27.78%
2——5.56%—5.56%5.56%16.67%
311.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total11.11%22.22%27.78%5.56%22.22%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 2.44 -0.06
SD 1.42 1.72 2.75
CV 0.59 0.70 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
2—11.11%—11.11%—5.56%27.78%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%33.33%11.11%27.78%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.00 -0.50
SD 1.29 1.68 2.12
CV 0.86 0.84 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%——5.56%——22.22%
1—5.56%16.67%5.56%—16.67%44.44%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
35.56%————5.56%11.11%
4———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%5.56%22.22%22.22%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.67 -1.22
SD 1.29 2.11 2.07
CV 0.90 0.79 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
2—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
411.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
5+5.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
Total16.67%33.33%38.89%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.22 1.56 +1.67
SD 2.49 1.15 3.12
CV 0.77 0.74 —
Max 11 4 +11
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%—5.56%———22.22%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
422.22%11.11%5.56%———38.89%
5+———————
Total50.00%33.33%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.72 0.67 +2.06
SD 1.23 0.77 1.47
CV 0.45 1.15 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%—11.11%—22.22%
1——11.11%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
2—5.56%16.67%11.11%——33.33%
3———————
4—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total5.56%11.11%38.89%27.78%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 2.44 -0.39
SD 2.18 1.20 2.52
CV 1.06 0.49 —
Max 9 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shelbourne 1535 33 27.47 +5.53 98.0% 21 22 26 27 29 32 34
Bohemian 1492 32 25.29 +6.71 100.0% 18 19 23 26 27 30 32
Shamrock Rovers 1398 24 24.02 -0.02 55.0% 17 19 22 24 26 28 32
Drumconda 1176 18 24.06 -6.06 8.0% 15 17 21 25 26 29 31
Dundalk 1169 17 16.73 +0.27 55.0% 9 12 15 17 19 21 23
Fordsons 1114 13 17.65 -4.65 10.0% 5 12 15 18 20 22 26
St. James Gate 1035 14 13.48 +0.52 62.0% 4 7 12 13 16 18 21
Brideville 1034 11 13.74 -2.74 31.0% 7 8 11 14 16 20 23
Jacobs 952 10 9.27 +0.73 68.0% 3 5 7 9 11 14 17
Bray Unknowns 876 8 8.29 -0.29 57.0% 1 3 6 8 10 14 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+3.33%
No Edge
42.22%18.89%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 11.59 Elo pts.
177 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.41 goals
Neutral
-2+0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
46%
Shelbourne, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.58 * Some Luck: 2.58 to 3.87 * Lucky: 3.87 to 5.16 * Wild Swing: 5.16 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.77 * Close: 0.77 to 1.16 * Off: 1.16 to 1.55 * Way Off: 1.55 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.77 points
Some Luck
03.228
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Close
00.972
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Bohemian
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.00%
Drumconda
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 226.57
2.33
Wide Separation
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
86%
Wide Edge
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
48%
Few
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
38%
Very Frequent
0%37%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.48
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.57
Lopsided
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.40
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.87
Near-Lock
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.88
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.11
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.121
Well Within Noise
00.1550.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Shelbourne46.00%34.00%13.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%————
Bohemian28.00%22.00%24.00%22.00%3.00%1.00%————
Shamrock Rovers15.00%16.00%26.00%32.00%9.00%2.00%————
Drumconda11.00%27.00%27.00%21.00%4.00%9.00%1.00%———
Dundalk——2.00%7.00%34.00%26.00%18.00%11.00%2.00%—
St. James Gate————11.00%17.00%27.00%29.00%10.00%6.00%
Fordsons—1.00%7.00%10.00%29.00%28.00%18.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%
Brideville——1.00%3.00%7.00%13.00%26.00%29.00%15.00%6.00%
Jacobs—————1.00%5.00%15.00%49.00%30.00%
Bray Unknowns————2.00%2.00%5.00%12.00%22.00%57.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Bohemian 100%
Bray Unknowns 100%
Brideville 100%
Drumconda 100%
Dundalk 100%
Fordsons 100%
Jacobs 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
St. James Gate 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1928-08-25 Bohemian L 1-234.4 939 1331 6.91% 18.60% 74.48%-2.15 -3.2 0
1928-08-25 @ Bray Unknowns W 2-134.4 1331 939 74.48% 18.60% 6.91%+2.15 +3.2 2
1928-08-25 Jacobs D 0-049.7 1219 944 70.21% 19.21% 10.58%+1.62 -6.5 1
1928-08-25 @ Fordsons D 0-049.7 944 1219 10.58% 19.21% 70.21%-1.62 +6.5 1
1928-08-25 Brideville W 4-027.4 1386 1151 67.54% 19.42% 13.04%+1.39 +22.2 2
1928-08-25 @ Shelbourne L 0-427.4 1151 1386 13.04% 19.42% 67.54%-1.39 -22.2 0
1928-08-26 Shamrock Rovers D 1-153.8 1370 1309 50.62% 19.98% 29.40%+0.41 -1.9 1
1928-08-26 @ Drumconda D 1-153.8 1309 1370 29.40% 19.98% 50.62%-0.41 +1.9 1
1928-08-26 Dundalk W 4-250.8 1009 1122 27.26% 19.93% 52.81%-0.58 +30.3 2
1928-08-26 @ St. James Gate L 2-450.8 1122 1009 52.81% 19.93% 27.26%+0.58 -30.3 0
1928-09-01 Drumconda W 3-251.6 1334 1368 37.65% 20.03% 42.31%-0.13 +15.3 4
1928-09-01 @ Bohemian L 2-351.6 1368 1334 42.31% 20.03% 37.65%+0.13 -15.3 1
1928-09-01 Shelbourne L 2-445.9 1311 1408 29.28% 19.96% 50.76%-0.48 -18.5 1
1928-09-01 @ Shamrock Rovers W 4-245.9 1408 1311 50.76% 19.96% 29.28%+0.48 +18.5 4
1928-09-02 Fordsons W 3-251.8 1129 1213 30.96% 19.98% 49.06%-0.41 +17.4 2
1928-09-02 @ Brideville L 2-351.8 1213 1129 49.06% 19.98% 30.96%+0.41 -17.3 1
1928-09-02 Jacobs W 5-133.4 1092 950 59.69% 19.80% 20.51%+0.87 +27.8 2
1928-09-02 @ Dundalk L 1-533.4 950 1092 20.51% 19.80% 59.69%-0.87 -27.9 1
1928-09-02 Bray Unknowns L 1-347.4 1039 936 55.59% 19.90% 24.51%+0.65 -35.5 2
1928-09-02 @ St. James Gate W 3-147.4 936 1039 24.51% 19.90% 55.59%-0.65 +35.5 2
1928-09-08 Bohemian W 3-142.1 1426 1350 52.52% 19.96% 27.52%+0.50 +19.6 6
1928-09-08 @ Shelbourne L 1-342.1 1350 1426 27.52% 19.96% 52.52%-0.50 -19.6 4
1928-09-09 Dundalk L 0-331.5 972 1120 23.39% 19.84% 56.77%-0.77 -28.6 2
1928-09-09 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-031.5 1120 972 56.77% 19.84% 23.39%+0.77 +28.7 4
1928-09-09 Shamrock Rovers L 1-241.8 1195 1292 29.24% 19.96% 50.79%-0.48 -11.9 1
1928-09-09 @ Fordsons W 2-141.8 1292 1195 50.79% 19.96% 29.24%+0.48 +11.9 3
1928-09-09 St. James Gate D 0-050.0 1353 1003 74.08% 18.74% 7.18%+2.05 -7.4 2
1928-09-09 @ Drumconda D 0-050.0 1003 1353 7.18% 18.74% 74.08%-2.05 +7.4 3
1928-09-09 Brideville D 0-049.6 922 1146 16.34% 19.58% 64.09%-1.20 +5.0 2
1928-09-09 @ Jacobs D 0-049.6 1146 922 64.09% 19.58% 16.34%+1.20 -5.0 3
1928-09-15 Fordsons W 5-239.0 1330 1183 60.21% 19.78% 20.01%+0.90 +18.3 6
1928-09-15 @ Bohemian L 2-539.0 1183 1330 20.01% 19.78% 60.21%-0.90 -18.3 1
1928-09-15 Drumconda L 0-326.1 943 1346 6.54% 18.53% 74.93%-2.21 -8.8 2
1928-09-15 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-026.1 1346 943 74.93% 18.53% 6.54%+2.21 +8.8 4
1928-09-15 Shelbourne D 2-257.1 1011 1446 5.50% 18.28% 76.22%-2.40 +5.2 4
1928-09-15 @ St. James Gate D 2-257.1 1446 1011 76.22% 18.28% 5.50%+2.40 -5.2 7
1928-09-16 Brideville W 4-246.0 1148 1141 43.44% 20.03% 36.53%+0.11 +22.2 6
1928-09-16 @ Dundalk L 2-446.0 1141 1148 36.53% 20.03% 43.44%-0.11 -22.2 3
1928-09-16 Jacobs W 3-132.2 1304 928 75.23% 18.55% 6.22%+2.20 +5.0 5
1928-09-16 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-332.2 928 1304 6.22% 18.55% 75.23%-2.20 -5.0 2
1928-09-22 Shamrock Rovers L 1-434.8 1119 1309 19.24% 19.71% 61.05%-1.01 -20.4 3
1928-09-22 @ Brideville W 4-134.8 1309 1119 61.05% 19.71% 19.24%+1.01 +20.4 7
1928-09-22 St. James Gate W 5-133.2 1165 1016 60.42% 19.77% 19.80%+0.91 +27.0 3
1928-09-22 @ Fordsons L 1-533.2 1016 1165 19.80% 19.77% 60.42%-0.91 -27.0 4
1928-09-22 Bohemian L 3-733.5 923 1348 5.78% 18.35% 75.87%-2.35 -6.6 2
1928-09-22 @ Jacobs W 7-333.5 1348 923 75.87% 18.35% 5.78%+2.35 +6.6 8
1928-09-22 Bray Unknowns W 3-131.1 1441 934 79.40% 17.49% 3.12%+2.93 +2.5 9
1928-09-22 @ Shelbourne L 1-331.1 934 1441 3.12% 17.49% 79.40%-2.93 -2.5 2
1928-09-23 Dundalk W 2-138.1 1354 1171 63.59% 19.65% 16.76%+1.11 +7.4 6
1928-09-23 @ Drumconda L 1-238.1 1171 1354 16.76% 19.65% 63.59%-1.11 -7.4 6
1928-09-29 Brideville W 3-028.1 1355 1099 69.02% 19.31% 11.67%+1.52 +15.3 10
1928-09-29 @ Bohemian L 0-328.1 1099 1355 11.67% 19.31% 69.02%-1.52 -15.3 3
1928-09-29 Fordsons L 0-133.1 932 1192 13.64% 19.41% 66.95%-1.41 -6.5 2
1928-09-29 @ Bray Unknowns W 1-033.1 1192 932 66.95% 19.41% 13.64%+1.41 +6.5 5
1928-09-29 Shelbourne L 0-142.3 1362 1443 31.22% 19.99% 48.80%-0.40 -13.4 6
1928-09-29 @ Drumconda W 1-042.3 1443 1362 48.80% 19.99% 31.22%+0.40 +13.4 11
1928-09-30 Shamrock Rovers D 2-256.7 1163 1330 21.50% 19.79% 58.71%-0.88 +2.5 7
1928-09-30 @ Dundalk D 2-256.7 1330 1163 58.71% 19.79% 21.50%+0.88 -2.5 8
1928-09-30 Jacobs W 2-141.0 989 916 52.10% 19.96% 27.94%+0.48 +11.5 6
1928-09-30 @ St. James Gate L 1-241.0 916 989 27.94% 19.96% 52.10%-0.48 -11.5 2
1928-10-13 Bohemian D 2-258.1 1327 1370 36.34% 20.03% 43.63%-0.18 +0.5 9
1928-10-13 @ Shamrock Rovers D 2-258.1 1370 1327 43.63% 20.03% 36.34%+0.18 -0.5 11
1928-10-13 Dundalk W 4-132.6 1457 1166 71.12% 19.12% 9.77%+1.71 +10.9 13
1928-10-13 @ Shelbourne L 1-432.6 1166 1457 9.77% 19.12% 71.12%-1.71 -10.9 7
1928-10-14 St. James Gate L 3-944.4 1084 1000 53.30% 19.94% 26.76%+0.54 -67.1 3
1928-10-14 @ Brideville W 9-344.4 1000 1084 26.76% 19.94% 53.30%-0.54 +67.1 8
1928-10-14 Drumconda L 1-240.2 1199 1348 23.21% 19.84% 56.95%-0.78 -9.8 5
1928-10-14 @ Fordsons W 2-140.2 1348 1199 56.95% 19.84% 23.21%+0.78 +9.8 8
1928-10-14 Bray Unknowns W 3-036.7 904 925 39.50% 20.04% 40.47%-0.05 +45.2 4
1928-10-14 @ Jacobs L 0-336.7 925 904 40.47% 20.04% 39.50%+0.05 -45.2 2
1928-10-20 Brideville L 2-442.3 880 1016 24.66% 19.88% 55.46%-0.71 -16.0 2
1928-10-20 @ Bray Unknowns W 4-242.3 1016 880 55.46% 19.88% 24.66%+0.71 +16.0 5
1928-10-20 Bohemian L 1-238.2 1155 1370 17.06% 19.61% 63.32%-1.15 -7.5 7
1928-10-20 @ Dundalk W 2-138.2 1370 1155 63.32% 19.61% 17.06%+1.15 +7.5 13
1928-10-20 Fordsons W 1-033.4 1467 1189 70.42% 19.19% 10.39%+1.64 +5.0 15
1928-10-20 @ Shelbourne L 0-133.4 1189 1467 10.39% 19.19% 70.42%-1.64 -5.0 5
1928-10-21 Jacobs W 5-128.5 1358 950 76.43% 18.31% 5.26%+2.38 +7.7 10
1928-10-21 @ Drumconda L 1-528.5 950 1358 5.26% 18.31% 76.43%-2.38 -7.7 4
1928-10-21 Shamrock Rovers L 0-427.2 1068 1328 13.66% 19.41% 66.93%-1.41 -23.2 8
1928-10-21 @ St. James Gate W 4-027.2 1328 1068 66.93% 19.41% 13.66%+1.41 +23.2 11
1928-10-27 St. James Gate D 2-256.8 1377 1044 73.31% 18.85% 7.84%+1.95 -4.8 14
1928-10-27 @ Bohemian D 2-256.8 1044 1377 7.84% 18.85% 73.31%-1.95 +4.8 9
1928-10-27 Shelbourne L 1-233.1 942 1472 3.31% 17.48% 79.21%-2.94 -1.5 4
1928-10-27 @ Jacobs W 2-133.1 1472 942 79.21% 17.48% 3.31%+2.94 +1.5 17
1928-10-28 Drumconda L 0-327.2 1032 1366 9.39% 19.00% 71.61%-1.82 -12.5 5
1928-10-28 @ Brideville W 3-027.2 1366 1032 71.61% 19.00% 9.39%+1.82 +12.5 12
1928-10-28 Dundalk D 1-152.3 1184 1147 47.43% 20.01% 32.56%+0.27 -1.3 6
1928-10-28 @ Fordsons D 1-152.3 1147 1184 32.56% 20.01% 47.43%-0.27 +1.3 8
1928-10-28 Bray Unknowns W 11-025.6 1351 864 78.88% 17.66% 3.46%+2.82 +15.9 13
1928-10-28 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-1125.6 864 1351 3.46% 17.66% 78.88%-2.82 -15.9 2
1928-11-03 Bray Unknowns W 6-230.5 1373 848 79.85% 17.32% 2.83%+3.04 +3.5 16
1928-11-03 @ Bohemian L 2-630.5 848 1373 2.83% 17.32% 79.85%-3.04 -3.5 2
1928-11-03 Fordsons L 1-237.0 940 1182 14.95% 19.50% 65.56%-1.30 -6.6 4
1928-11-03 @ Jacobs W 2-137.0 1182 940 65.56% 19.50% 14.95%+1.30 +6.6 8
1928-11-04 Shelbourne L 0-424.5 1020 1474 4.98% 18.13% 76.89%-2.51 -8.8 5
1928-11-04 @ Brideville W 4-024.5 1474 1020 76.89% 18.13% 4.98%+2.51 +8.8 19
1928-11-04 St. James Gate W 3-244.4 1149 1049 55.20% 19.91% 24.89%+0.63 +9.9 10
1928-11-04 @ Dundalk L 2-344.4 1049 1149 24.89% 19.91% 55.20%-0.63 -9.9 9
1928-11-04 Drumconda W 4-037.4 1367 1378 40.81% 20.04% 39.15%+0.00 +57.5 15
1928-11-04 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-437.4 1378 1367 39.15% 20.04% 40.81%+0.00 -57.5 12
1928-11-10 Brideville W 3-029.6 1189 1011 63.09% 19.67% 17.25%+1.07 +21.9 10
1928-11-10 @ Fordsons L 0-329.6 1011 1189 17.25% 19.67% 63.09%-1.07 -21.9 5
1928-11-10 Bohemian L 0-141.4 1321 1376 34.69% 20.02% 45.29%-0.25 -14.6 12
1928-11-10 @ Drumconda W 1-041.4 1376 1321 45.29% 20.02% 34.69%+0.25 +14.6 18
1928-11-10 Shamrock Rovers W 2-042.2 1483 1424 50.31% 19.99% 29.71%+0.40 +24.2 21
1928-11-10 @ Shelbourne L 0-242.2 1424 1483 29.71% 19.99% 50.31%-0.40 -24.2 15
1928-11-11 St. James Gate L 1-434.4 845 1039 18.82% 19.69% 61.48%-1.04 -20.0 2
1928-11-11 @ Bray Unknowns W 4-134.4 1039 845 61.48% 19.69% 18.82%+1.04 +20.0 11
1928-11-11 Dundalk W 4-359.8 934 1159 16.27% 19.57% 64.16%-1.21 +21.9 6
1928-11-11 @ Jacobs L 3-459.8 1159 934 64.16% 19.57% 16.27%+1.21 -21.9 10
1928-11-17 Shelbourne W 2-154.9 1391 1507 26.94% 19.92% 53.14%-0.59 +19.7 20
1928-11-17 @ Bohemian L 1-254.9 1507 1391 53.14% 19.92% 26.94%+0.59 -19.7 21
1928-11-18 Jacobs D 1-152.2 989 956 47.06% 20.02% 32.92%+0.26 -1.2 6
1928-11-18 @ Brideville D 1-152.2 956 989 32.92% 20.02% 47.06%-0.26 +1.2 7
1928-11-18 Bray Unknowns W 5-129.6 1137 825 72.27% 18.99% 8.75%+1.83 +12.7 12
1928-11-18 @ Dundalk L 1-529.6 825 1137 8.75% 18.99% 72.27%-1.83 -12.7 2
1928-11-18 Fordsons W 6-132.2 1400 1211 64.04% 19.62% 16.33%+1.14 +27.9 17
1928-11-18 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-632.2 1211 1400 16.33% 19.62% 64.04%-1.14 -27.9 10
1928-11-18 Drumconda L 2-341.3 1059 1306 14.58% 19.47% 65.95%-1.33 -6.1 11
1928-11-18 @ St. James Gate W 3-241.3 1306 1059 65.95% 19.47% 14.58%+1.33 +6.2 14
1928-11-24 Bray Unknowns D 2-257.0 1312 812 79.24% 17.54% 3.22%+2.90 -5.7 15
1928-11-24 @ Drumconda D 2-257.0 812 1312 3.22% 17.54% 79.24%-2.90 +5.7 3
1928-11-24 St. James Gate W 4-024.5 1487 1053 77.31% 18.11% 4.59%+2.52 +8.1 23
1928-11-24 @ Shelbourne L 0-424.5 1053 1487 4.59% 18.11% 77.31%-2.52 -8.1 11
1928-11-25 Dundalk L 1-337.3 988 1149 22.01% 19.81% 58.18%-0.85 -16.2 6
1928-11-25 @ Brideville W 3-137.3 1149 988 58.18% 19.81% 22.01%+0.85 +16.2 14
1928-11-25 Bohemian L 0-330.1 1183 1410 16.08% 19.56% 64.36%-1.22 -20.6 10
1928-11-25 @ Fordsons W 3-030.1 1410 1183 64.36% 19.56% 16.08%+1.22 +20.6 22
1928-11-25 Shamrock Rovers L 2-337.9 957 1428 4.55% 17.99% 77.46%-2.60 -2.0 7
1928-11-25 @ Jacobs W 3-237.9 1428 957 77.46% 17.99% 4.55%+2.60 +2.0 19
1928-12-01 Jacobs W 6-127.0 1431 955 78.58% 17.76% 3.67%+2.76 +6.6 24
1928-12-01 @ Bohemian L 1-627.0 955 1431 3.67% 17.76% 78.58%-2.76 -6.6 7
1928-12-01 Fordsons L 1-240.7 1045 1163 26.81% 19.92% 53.27%-0.60 -11.1 11
1928-12-01 @ St. James Gate W 2-140.7 1163 1045 53.27% 19.92% 26.81%+0.60 +11.1 12
1928-12-02 Shelbourne L 1-232.0 818 1495 1.50% 16.05% 82.45%-3.77 -0.7 3
1928-12-02 @ Bray Unknowns W 2-132.0 1495 818 82.45% 16.05% 1.50%+3.77 +0.7 25
1928-12-02 Drumconda W 3-041.6 1166 1307 24.13% 19.86% 56.01%-0.73 +60.0 16
1928-12-02 @ Dundalk L 0-341.6 1307 1166 56.01% 19.86% 24.13%+0.73 -60.0 15
1928-12-02 Brideville W 4-235.7 1430 972 78.06% 17.91% 4.04%+2.66 +2.9 21
1928-12-02 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-435.7 972 1430 4.04% 17.91% 78.06%-2.66 -2.9 6
1928-12-08 Bohemian L 2-631.4 969 1437 4.61% 18.01% 77.38%-2.59 -5.7 6
1928-12-08 @ Brideville W 6-231.4 1437 969 77.38% 18.01% 4.61%+2.59 +5.7 26
1928-12-08 Bray Unknowns L 1-352.7 1174 817 74.39% 18.69% 6.92%+2.09 -47.8 12
1928-12-08 @ Fordsons W 3-152.7 817 1174 6.92% 18.69% 74.39%-2.09 +47.8 5
1928-12-08 Drumconda W 4-029.1 1496 1247 68.57% 19.35% 12.08%+1.48 +20.7 27
1928-12-08 @ Shelbourne L 0-429.1 1247 1496 12.08% 19.35% 68.57%-1.48 -20.7 15
1928-12-09 St. James Gate D 2-256.2 948 1034 30.68% 19.98% 49.34%-0.42 +1.2 8
1928-12-09 @ Jacobs D 2-256.2 1034 948 49.34% 19.98% 30.68%+0.42 -1.2 12
1928-12-09 Dundalk W 5-238.4 1433 1226 65.52% 19.55% 14.93%+1.24 +14.1 23
1928-12-09 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-538.4 1226 1433 14.93% 19.55% 65.52%-1.24 -14.1 16
1928-12-15 Shamrock Rovers W 2-150.1 1443 1447 41.94% 20.04% 38.03%+0.04 +14.8 28
1928-12-15 @ Bohemian L 1-250.1 1447 1443 38.03% 20.04% 41.94%-0.04 -14.8 23
1928-12-16 Jacobs D 4-463.5 865 950 30.80% 19.98% 49.21%-0.41 +0.9 6
1928-12-16 @ Bray Unknowns D 4-463.5 950 865 49.21% 19.98% 30.80%+0.41 -0.9 9
1928-12-16 Shelbourne L 1-434.1 1212 1517 10.86% 19.17% 69.97%-1.66 -12.1 16
1928-12-16 @ Dundalk W 4-134.1 1517 1212 69.97% 19.17% 10.86%+1.66 +12.1 29
1928-12-16 Fordsons W 3-244.5 1226 1126 55.29% 19.91% 24.80%+0.63 +9.8 17
1928-12-16 @ Drumconda L 2-344.5 1126 1226 24.80% 19.91% 55.29%-0.63 -9.8 12
1928-12-16 Brideville L 1-248.1 1033 963 51.68% 19.97% 28.35%+0.46 -19.2 12
1928-12-16 @ St. James Gate W 2-148.1 963 1033 28.35% 19.97% 51.68%-0.46 +19.2 8
1928-12-22 Dundalk W 6-027.4 1458 1199 69.17% 19.30% 11.53%+1.53 +29.0 30
1928-12-22 @ Bohemian L 0-627.4 1199 1458 11.53% 19.30% 69.17%-1.53 -29.0 16
1928-12-22 Bray Unknowns D 2-256.3 982 866 57.11% 19.87% 23.02%+0.73 -2.3 9
1928-12-22 @ Brideville D 2-256.3 866 982 23.02% 19.87% 57.11%-0.73 +2.3 7
1928-12-23 Shelbourne L 0-131.8 1116 1529 6.19% 18.45% 75.35%-2.27 -3.0 12
1928-12-23 @ Fordsons W 1-031.8 1529 1116 75.35% 18.45% 6.19%+2.27 +3.0 31
1928-12-23 Drumconda D 0-049.7 949 1236 11.91% 19.27% 68.83%-1.56 +6.1 10
1928-12-23 @ Jacobs D 0-049.7 1236 949 68.83% 19.27% 11.91%+1.56 -6.1 18
1928-12-23 St. James Gate L 3-463.5 1432 1014 76.78% 18.23% 4.99%+2.44 -26.4 23
1928-12-23 @ Shamrock Rovers W 4-363.5 1014 1432 4.99% 18.23% 76.78%-2.44 +26.4 14
1928-12-29 Jacobs W 3-024.6 1532 955 81.04% 16.83% 2.13%+3.33 +2.8 33
1928-12-29 @ Shelbourne L 0-324.6 955 1532 2.13% 16.83% 81.04%-3.33 -2.8 10
1928-12-29 Bohemian L 0-228.2 1040 1487 5.17% 18.19% 76.64%-2.47 -4.8 14
1928-12-29 @ St. James Gate W 2-028.2 1487 1040 76.64% 18.19% 5.17%+2.47 +4.8 32
1928-12-30 Fordsons D 3-360.5 1170 1113 50.17% 19.99% 29.85%+0.39 -1.1 17
1928-12-30 @ Dundalk D 3-360.5 1113 1170 29.85% 19.99% 50.17%-0.39 +1.1 13
1929-01-09 Brideville L 2-553.0 1230 980 68.60% 19.34% 12.06%+1.48 -53.8 18
1929-01-09 @ Drumconda W 5-253.0 980 1230 12.06% 19.34% 68.60%-1.48 +53.8 11
1929-01-23 Shamrock Rovers D 1-153.0 868 1406 3.18% 17.41% 79.40%-2.98 +7.6 8
1929-01-23 @ Bray Unknowns D 1-153.0 1406 868 79.40% 17.41% 3.18%+2.98 -7.6 24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1928-12-23 4.99% St. James Gate 1014 4 @ Shamrock Rovers 1432 3
2 1928-12-08 6.92% Bray Unknowns 817 3 @ Fordsons 1174 1
3 1929-01-09 12.06% Brideville 980 5 @ Drumconda 1230 2
4 1928-11-11 16.27% @ Jacobs 934 4 Dundalk 1159 3
5 1928-12-02 24.13% @ Dundalk 1166 3 Drumconda 1307 0
6 1928-09-02 24.51% Bray Unknowns 936 3 @ St. James Gate 1039 1
7 1928-10-14 26.76% St. James Gate 1000 9 @ Brideville 1084 3
8 1928-11-17 26.94% @ Bohemian 1391 2 Shelbourne 1507 1
9 1928-08-26 27.26% @ St. James Gate 1009 4 Dundalk 1122 2
10 1928-12-16 28.35% Brideville 963 2 @ St. James Gate 1033 1
11 1928-09-02 30.96% @ Brideville 1129 3 Fordsons 1213 2
12 1928-09-01 37.65% @ Bohemian 1334 3 Drumconda 1368 2
13 1928-10-14 39.50% @ Jacobs 904 3 Bray Unknowns 925 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1928-10-14 67.11 St. James Gate 9 1000 26.76% @ Brideville 3 1084 53.30% 19.94%
2 1928-12-02 60.03 @ Dundalk 3 1166 24.13% Drumconda 0 1307 56.01% 19.86%
3 1928-11-04 57.46 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1367 40.81% Drumconda 0 1378 39.15% 20.04%
4 1929-01-09 53.77 Brideville 5 980 12.06% @ Drumconda 2 1230 68.60% 19.34%
5 1928-12-08 47.79 Bray Unknowns 3 817 6.92% @ Fordsons 1 1174 74.39% 18.69%
6 1928-10-14 45.17 @ Jacobs 3 904 39.50% Bray Unknowns 0 925 40.47% 20.04%
7 1928-09-02 35.54 Bray Unknowns 3 936 24.51% @ St. James Gate 1 1039 55.59% 19.90%
8 1928-08-26 30.30 @ St. James Gate 4 1009 27.26% Dundalk 2 1122 52.81% 19.93%
9 1928-12-22 29.03 @ Bohemian 6 1458 69.17% Dundalk 0 1199 11.53% 19.30%
10 1928-09-09 28.65 Dundalk 3 1120 56.77% @ Bray Unknowns 0 972 23.39% 19.84%
11 1928-11-18 27.86 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1400 64.04% Fordsons 1 1211 16.33% 19.62%
12 1928-09-02 27.85 @ Dundalk 5 1092 59.69% Jacobs 1 950 20.51% 19.80%
13 1928-09-22 27.01 @ Fordsons 5 1165 60.42% St. James Gate 1 1016 19.80% 19.77%
14 1928-12-23 26.37 St. James Gate 4 1014 4.99% @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1432 76.78% 18.23%
15 1928-11-10 24.17 @ Shelbourne 2 1483 50.31% Shamrock Rovers 0 1424 29.71% 19.99%
16 1928-10-21 23.18 Shamrock Rovers 4 1328 66.93% @ St. James Gate 0 1068 13.66% 19.41%
17 1928-08-25 22.23 @ Shelbourne 4 1386 67.54% Brideville 0 1151 13.04% 19.42%
18 1928-09-16 22.18 @ Dundalk 4 1148 43.44% Brideville 2 1141 36.53% 20.03%
19 1928-11-10 21.94 @ Fordsons 3 1189 63.09% Brideville 0 1011 17.25% 19.67%
20 1928-11-11 21.88 @ Jacobs 4 934 16.27% Dundalk 3 1159 64.16% 19.57%
21 1928-12-08 20.72 @ Shelbourne 4 1496 68.57% Drumconda 0 1247 12.08% 19.35%
22 1928-11-25 20.59 Bohemian 3 1410 64.36% @ Fordsons 0 1183 16.08% 19.56%
23 1928-09-22 20.37 Shamrock Rovers 4 1309 61.05% @ Brideville 1 1119 19.24% 19.71%
24 1928-11-11 19.98 St. James Gate 4 1039 61.48% @ Bray Unknowns 1 845 18.82% 19.69%
25 1928-11-17 19.67 @ Bohemian 2 1391 26.94% Shelbourne 1 1507 53.14% 19.92%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1928-12-16 63.5 @ Bray Unknowns 4 865 30.80% Jacobs 4 950 49.21% 19.98%
2 1928-12-23 63.5 St. James Gate 4 1014 4.99% @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1432 76.78% 18.23%
3 1928-12-30 60.5 @ Dundalk 3 1170 50.17% Fordsons 3 1113 29.85% 19.99%
4 1928-11-11 59.8 @ Jacobs 4 934 16.27% Dundalk 3 1159 64.16% 19.57%
5 1928-10-13 58.1 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1327 36.34% Bohemian 2 1370 43.63% 20.03%
6 1928-09-15 57.1 @ St. James Gate 2 1011 5.50% Shelbourne 2 1446 76.22% 18.28%
7 1928-11-24 57.0 @ Drumconda 2 1312 79.24% Bray Unknowns 2 812 3.22% 17.54%
8 1928-10-27 56.8 @ Bohemian 2 1377 73.31% St. James Gate 2 1044 7.84% 18.85%
9 1928-09-30 56.7 @ Dundalk 2 1163 21.50% Shamrock Rovers 2 1330 58.71% 19.79%
10 1928-12-22 56.3 @ Brideville 2 982 57.11% Bray Unknowns 2 866 23.02% 19.87%
11 1928-12-09 56.2 @ Jacobs 2 948 30.68% St. James Gate 2 1034 49.34% 19.98%
12 1928-11-17 54.9 @ Bohemian 2 1391 26.94% Shelbourne 1 1507 53.14% 19.92%
13 1928-08-26 53.8 @ Drumconda 1 1370 50.62% Shamrock Rovers 1 1309 29.40% 19.98%
14 1929-01-09 53.0 Brideville 5 980 12.06% @ Drumconda 2 1230 68.60% 19.34%
15 1929-01-23 53.0 @ Bray Unknowns 1 868 3.18% Shamrock Rovers 1 1406 79.40% 17.41%
16 1928-12-08 52.7 Bray Unknowns 3 817 6.92% @ Fordsons 1 1174 74.39% 18.69%
17 1928-10-28 52.3 @ Fordsons 1 1184 47.43% Dundalk 1 1147 32.56% 20.01%
18 1928-11-18 52.2 @ Brideville 1 989 47.06% Jacobs 1 956 32.92% 20.02%
19 1928-09-02 51.8 @ Brideville 3 1129 30.96% Fordsons 2 1213 49.06% 19.98%
20 1928-09-01 51.6 @ Bohemian 3 1334 37.65% Drumconda 2 1368 42.31% 20.03%
21 1928-08-26 50.8 @ St. James Gate 4 1009 27.26% Dundalk 2 1122 52.81% 19.93%
22 1928-12-15 50.1 @ Bohemian 2 1443 41.94% Shamrock Rovers 1 1447 38.03% 20.04%
23 1928-09-09 50.0 @ Drumconda 0 1353 74.08% St. James Gate 0 1003 7.18% 18.74%
24 1928-08-25 49.7 @ Fordsons 0 1219 70.21% Jacobs 0 944 10.58% 19.21%
25 1928-12-23 49.7 @ Jacobs 0 949 11.91% Drumconda 0 1236 68.83% 19.27%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1928-11-04 24.5 Shelbourne 4 1474 76.89% @ Brideville 0 1020 4.98% 18.13%
2 1928-11-24 24.5 @ Shelbourne 4 1487 77.31% St. James Gate 0 1053 4.59% 18.11%
3 1928-12-29 24.6 @ Shelbourne 3 1532 81.04% Jacobs 0 955 2.13% 16.83%
4 1928-10-28 25.6 @ Shamrock Rovers 11 1351 78.88% Bray Unknowns 0 864 3.46% 17.66%
5 1928-09-15 26.1 Drumconda 3 1346 74.93% @ Bray Unknowns 0 943 6.54% 18.53%
6 1928-12-01 27.0 @ Bohemian 6 1431 78.58% Jacobs 1 955 3.67% 17.76%
7 1928-10-21 27.2 Shamrock Rovers 4 1328 66.93% @ St. James Gate 0 1068 13.66% 19.41%
8 1928-10-28 27.2 Drumconda 3 1366 71.61% @ Brideville 0 1032 9.39% 19.00%
9 1928-08-25 27.4 @ Shelbourne 4 1386 67.54% Brideville 0 1151 13.04% 19.42%
10 1928-12-22 27.4 @ Bohemian 6 1458 69.17% Dundalk 0 1199 11.53% 19.30%
11 1928-09-29 28.1 @ Bohemian 3 1355 69.02% Brideville 0 1099 11.67% 19.31%
12 1928-12-29 28.2 Bohemian 2 1487 76.64% @ St. James Gate 0 1040 5.17% 18.19%
13 1928-10-21 28.5 @ Drumconda 5 1358 76.43% Jacobs 1 950 5.26% 18.31%
14 1928-12-08 29.1 @ Shelbourne 4 1496 68.57% Drumconda 0 1247 12.08% 19.35%
15 1928-11-10 29.6 @ Fordsons 3 1189 63.09% Brideville 0 1011 17.25% 19.67%
16 1928-11-18 29.6 @ Dundalk 5 1137 72.27% Bray Unknowns 1 825 8.75% 18.99%
17 1928-11-25 30.1 Bohemian 3 1410 64.36% @ Fordsons 0 1183 16.08% 19.56%
18 1928-11-03 30.5 @ Bohemian 6 1373 79.85% Bray Unknowns 2 848 2.83% 17.32%
19 1928-09-22 31.1 @ Shelbourne 3 1441 79.40% Bray Unknowns 1 934 3.12% 17.49%
20 1928-12-08 31.4 Bohemian 6 1437 77.38% @ Brideville 2 969 4.61% 18.01%
21 1928-09-09 31.5 Dundalk 3 1120 56.77% @ Bray Unknowns 0 972 23.39% 19.84%
22 1928-12-23 31.8 Shelbourne 1 1529 75.35% @ Fordsons 0 1116 6.19% 18.45%
23 1928-12-02 32.0 Shelbourne 2 1495 82.45% @ Bray Unknowns 1 818 1.50% 16.05%
24 1928-09-16 32.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1304 75.23% Jacobs 1 928 6.22% 18.55%
25 1928-11-18 32.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1400 64.04% Fordsons 1 1211 16.33% 19.62%