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1929-30 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Bohemian

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Brideville

5.45 points above expected

19 points · 13.55 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Jacobs

5.84 points below expected

3 points · 8.84 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Bohemian 18 14 2 2 30 51 18 +33 27.72 +2.28
2 Shelbourne 18 14 1 3 29 59 25 +34 27.13 +1.87
3 Shamrock Rovers 18 12 2 4 26 44 22 +22 24.99 +1.01
4 Fordsons 18 8 3 7 19 33 33 0 17.78 +1.22
5 Brideville 18 8 3 7 19 34 39 -5 13.55 +5.45
6 Dundalk 18 6 3 9 15 38 36 +2 17.06 -2.06
7 Drumconda 18 5 5 8 15 26 37 -11 16.71 -1.71
8 Bray Unknowns 18 4 5 9 13 34 48 -14 10.78 +2.22
9 St. James Gate 18 4 3 11 11 30 38 -8 15.44 -4.44
10 Jacobs 18 0 3 15 3 23 76 -53 8.84 -5.84

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brideville 19 13.55 +5.45
2 Bohemian 30 27.72 +2.28
3 Bray Unknowns 13 10.78 +2.22
4 Shelbourne 29 27.13 +1.87
5 Fordsons 19 17.78 +1.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Jacobs 3 8.84 -5.84
2 St. James Gate 11 15.44 -4.44
3 Dundalk 15 17.06 -2.06
4 Drumconda 15 16.71 -1.71
5 Shamrock Rovers 26 24.99 +1.01

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brideville 3 Oct 5 – Oct 20 1 in 87
2 Shelbourne 11 Oct 12 – Mar 16 1 in 78
3 Bohemian 9 Aug 24 – Oct 19 1 in 33
4 Shamrock Rovers 5 Sep 8 – Oct 6 1 in 15
5 Dundalk 3 Nov 17 – Dec 1 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. James Gate 6 Nov 2 – Dec 7 1 in 55
2 Shamrock Rovers 2 Oct 12 – Oct 20 1 in 22
3 Dundalk 4 Oct 5 – Oct 27 1 in 15
4 Jacobs 8 Nov 3 – Mar 16 1 in 14
5 Fordsons 2 Oct 5 – Oct 13 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. James Gate 4 Oct 5 – Oct 27 1 in 14
2 Brideville 3 Oct 5 – Oct 20 1 in 13
3 Bray Unknowns 3 Sep 28 – Oct 13 1 in 12
4 Fordsons 4 Aug 25 – Sep 15 1 in 8
5 Drumconda 3 Nov 3 – Nov 17 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. James Gate 8 Oct 19 – Dec 7 1 in 63
2 Jacobs 18 Aug 25 – Mar 16 1 in 24
3 Dundalk 5 Aug 25 – Sep 22 1 in 12
4 Shelbourne 2 Sep 29 – Oct 5 1 in 11
5 Drumconda 6 Sep 22 – Oct 27 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Bohemian 1777 30 -13 7 7.4 -0.4
Shelbourne 1793 29 +22 10 8.4 +1.6
Shamrock Rovers 1706 26 +5 7 7.4 -0.4
Brideville 1425 19 +7 5 3.5 +1.5
Fordsons 1487 19 -15 4 4.6 -0.6
Dundalk 1527 15 +50 7 5.2 +1.8
Drumconda 1452 15 -24 4 4.5 -0.5
Bray Unknowns 1339 13 +25 4 3.4 +0.6
St. James Gate 1403 11 -27 2 3.6 -1.6
Jacobs 1194 3 -29 0 2.0 -2.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH BU BRI DRU DUN FOR JAC SR SHE SJG
Bohemian —
2-0-0
5.10
1-1-0
4.82
1-1-0
4.66
2-0-0
4.54
1-0-1
4.57
2-0-0
5.18
2-0-0
3.21
1-0-1
3.03
2-0-0
4.55
Bray Unknowns
0-0-2
0.59
 —
1-0-1
1.96
0-1-1
1.82
0-1-1
1.60
0-2-0
1.45
1-1-0
3.53
0-0-2
0.75
0-0-2
0.63
2-0-0
1.81
Brideville
0-1-1
0.85
1-0-1
3.69
 —
0-0-2
2.42
1-1-0
2.20
1-0-1
2.08
2-0-0
4.02
1-1-0
1.06
0-0-2
0.90
2-0-0
2.33
Drumconda
0-1-1
1.00
1-1-0
3.83
2-0-0
3.23
 —
0-1-1
2.94
0-0-2
2.86
1-1-0
4.28
0-0-2
1.28
0-0-2
1.00
1-1-0
2.87
Dundalk
0-0-2
1.12
1-1-0
4.05
0-1-1
3.45
1-1-0
2.71
 —
1-0-1
2.86
2-0-0
4.41
0-0-2
1.53
0-0-2
1.14
1-0-1
3.05
Fordsons
1-0-1
1.09
0-2-0
4.21
1-0-1
3.57
2-0-0
2.79
1-0-1
2.79
 —
2-0-0
4.31
0-1-1
1.48
1-0-1
1.22
0-0-2
3.53
Jacobs
0-0-2
0.53
0-1-1
2.11
0-0-2
1.63
0-1-1
1.38
0-0-2
1.25
0-0-2
1.35
 —
0-0-2
0.54
0-0-2
0.47
0-1-1
1.89
Shamrock Rovers
0-0-2
2.43
2-0-0
4.93
0-1-1
4.61
2-0-0
4.38
2-0-0
4.13
1-1-0
4.18
2-0-0
5.16
 —
1-0-1
2.35
2-0-0
4.47
Shelbourne
1-0-1
2.62
2-0-0
5.06
2-0-0
4.78
2-0-0
4.67
2-0-0
4.53
1-0-1
4.44
2-0-0
5.24
1-0-1
3.30
 —
1-1-0
4.79
St. James Gate
0-0-2
1.12
0-0-2
3.85
0-0-2
3.31
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.60
2-0-0
2.12
1-1-0
3.76
0-0-2
1.19
0-1-1
0.89
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.80 +6.8
Allowed 0.82 -4.7
Differential 0.93 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%5.00%3.33%2.78%1.67%1.67%17.78%
15.00%4.44%4.44%6.11%3.89%3.33%27.22%
23.33%4.44%3.33%3.89%2.22%1.67%18.89%
32.78%6.11%3.89%5.56%1.67%—20.00%
41.67%3.89%2.22%1.67%——9.44%
5+1.67%3.33%1.67%———6.67%
Total17.78%27.22%18.89%20.00%9.44%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 2.07 +0.00
SD 1.76 1.76 2.73
CV 0.85 0.85 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
111.11%——5.56%——16.67%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
35.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
45.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
5+5.56%11.11%————16.67%
Total38.89%38.89%5.56%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 1.00 +1.83
SD 2.01 1.08 2.28
CV 0.71 1.08 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—11.11%—5.56%27.78%
1—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
2——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
3—5.56%—16.67%——22.22%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total—33.33%11.11%38.89%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.67 -0.78
SD 1.60 1.71 2.69
CV 0.85 0.64 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%——11.11%
15.56%—5.56%16.67%—5.56%33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%11.11%33.33%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.17 -0.28
SD 1.18 1.50 1.93
CV 0.63 0.69 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%—11.11%—27.78%
15.56%11.11%—5.56%11.11%—33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
311.11%——11.11%——22.22%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%22.22%16.67%22.22%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.06 -0.61
SD 1.29 1.43 2.17
CV 0.90 0.70 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%33.33%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%16.67%33.33%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 2.00 +0.11
SD 1.81 1.37 2.30
CV 0.86 0.69 —
Max 8 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
15.56%11.11%5.56%—11.11%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.83 +0.00
SD 1.79 1.42 2.47
CV 0.98 0.78 —
Max 7 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
1—5.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%16.67%50.00%
2———5.56%5.56%11.11%22.22%
3———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%11.11%5.56%27.78%16.67%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 4.22 -2.94
SD 0.89 2.71 2.73
CV 0.70 0.64 —
Max 3 9 +0
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
111.11%5.56%———5.56%22.22%
211.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
3—16.67%————16.67%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%50.00%5.56%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 1.22 +1.22
SD 1.62 1.31 2.24
CV 0.66 1.07 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%—————5.56%
3—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
4—11.11%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
5+5.56%11.11%————16.67%
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.28 1.39 +1.89
SD 2.22 1.04 2.49
CV 0.68 0.75 —
Max 9 3 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—38.89%
1——5.56%—11.11%—16.67%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total22.22%11.11%27.78%11.11%27.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 2.11 -0.44
SD 2.11 1.53 2.85
CV 1.27 0.72 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shelbourne 1793 29 27.13 +1.87 77.0% 20 22 25 27 29 31 33
Bohemian 1777 30 27.72 +2.28 83.0% 20 23 26 27 30 33 34
Shamrock Rovers 1706 26 24.99 +1.01 72.0% 17 20 23 25 27 29 31
Dundalk 1527 15 17.06 -2.06 33.0% 10 11 14 17 19 23 26
Fordsons 1487 19 17.78 +1.22 64.0% 9 11 15 18 20 23 29
Drumconda 1452 15 16.71 -1.71 36.0% 10 12 14 17 19 22 25
Brideville 1425 19 13.55 +5.45 94.0% 6 8 11 13 16 20 23
St. James Gate 1403 11 15.44 -4.44 16.0% 8 10 13 15 18 21 24
Bray Unknowns 1339 13 10.78 +2.22 82.0% 4 6 8 11 13 16 19
Jacobs 1194 3 8.84 -5.84 6.0% 2 3 6 9 11 15 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.22%
Slight Edge
47.78%16.67%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 42.68 Elo pts.
164 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
42%
Bohemian, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.67 * Some Luck: 2.67 to 4.01 * Lucky: 4.01 to 5.35 * Wild Swing: 5.35 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.86 * Close: 0.86 to 1.29 * Off: 1.29 to 1.72 * Way Off: 1.72 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.27 points
Some Luck
03.348
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.082.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.00%
Brideville
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
6.00%
Jacobs
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 194.90
2.19
Strong Separation
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
81%
Wide Edge
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
47%
Few
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.48
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Lopsided
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.88
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.79
Near-Lock
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Solid Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.95
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.15
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.128
Well Within Noise
00.1590.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Bohemian42.00%39.00%17.00%2.00%——————
Shelbourne42.00%35.00%17.00%6.00%——————
Shamrock Rovers16.00%23.00%53.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%————
Fordsons—1.00%5.00%34.00%19.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%3.00%2.00%
Brideville———6.00%7.00%16.00%21.00%24.00%17.00%9.00%
Dundalk—1.00%5.00%15.00%26.00%25.00%16.00%6.00%6.00%—
Drumconda—1.00%1.00%19.00%23.00%19.00%16.00%17.00%4.00%—
Bray Unknowns————3.00%5.00%9.00%19.00%41.00%23.00%
St. James Gate——2.00%12.00%19.00%17.00%25.00%12.00%11.00%2.00%
Jacobs———1.00%1.00%3.00%3.00%10.00%18.00%64.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Bohemian 100%
Bray Unknowns 100%
Brideville 100%
Drumconda 100%
Dundalk 100%
Fordsons 100%
Jacobs 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
St. James Gate 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1929-08-24 Shelbourne W 2-162.4 1726 1756 45.95% 17.67% 36.38%+0.08 +8.3 2
1929-08-24 @ Bohemian L 1-262.4 1756 1726 36.38% 17.67% 45.95%-0.08 -8.3 0
1929-08-25 Bray Unknowns W 3-244.5 1399 1297 61.72% 17.43% 20.85%+0.88 +4.8 2
1929-08-25 @ Brideville L 2-344.5 1297 1399 20.85% 17.43% 61.72%-0.88 -4.8 0
1929-08-25 Shamrock Rovers L 0-250.2 1507 1667 28.49% 17.51% 54.00%-0.71 -13.4 0
1929-08-25 @ Dundalk W 2-050.2 1667 1507 54.00% 17.51% 28.49%+0.71 +13.4 2
1929-08-25 Fordsons L 0-153.6 1502 1472 53.78% 17.61% 28.61%+0.44 -12.3 0
1929-08-25 @ Drumconda W 1-053.6 1472 1502 28.61% 17.61% 53.78%-0.44 +12.3 2
1929-08-25 St. James Gate L 0-838.8 1356 1422 40.82% 17.67% 41.51%-0.15 -66.4 0
1929-08-25 @ Jacobs W 8-038.8 1422 1356 41.51% 17.67% 40.82%+0.15 +66.4 2
1929-08-31 Brideville W 4-356.7 1748 1403 77.85% 15.99% 6.16%+2.37 +1.5 2
1929-08-31 @ Shelbourne L 3-456.7 1403 1748 6.16% 15.99% 77.85%-2.37 -1.5 2
1929-08-31 Bohemian L 0-445.1 1489 1734 19.40% 17.19% 63.41%-1.24 -18.1 2
1929-08-31 @ St. James Gate W 4-045.1 1734 1489 63.41% 17.19% 19.40%+1.24 +18.1 4
1929-09-01 Dundalk D 2-260.5 1293 1494 23.76% 17.38% 58.87%-0.97 +1.4 1
1929-09-01 @ Bray Unknowns D 2-260.5 1494 1293 58.87% 17.38% 23.76%+0.97 -1.4 1
1929-09-01 Shamrock Rovers D 1-168.5 1485 1680 24.38% 17.40% 58.22%-0.93 +1.8 3
1929-09-01 @ Fordsons D 1-168.5 1680 1485 58.22% 17.40% 24.38%+0.93 -1.8 3
1929-09-01 Jacobs D 1-156.4 1490 1290 70.09% 16.98% 12.92%+1.49 -3.2 1
1929-09-01 @ Drumconda D 1-156.4 1290 1490 12.92% 16.98% 70.09%-1.49 +3.2 1
1929-09-07 Drumconda W 4-147.9 1752 1487 74.14% 16.58% 9.28%+1.89 +5.9 6
1929-09-07 @ Bohemian L 1-447.9 1487 1752 9.28% 16.58% 74.14%-1.89 -5.8 1
1929-09-07 Fordsons L 2-738.7 1293 1486 24.58% 17.41% 58.02%-0.92 -19.1 1
1929-09-07 @ Jacobs W 7-238.7 1486 1293 58.02% 17.41% 24.58%+0.92 +19.1 5
1929-09-08 St. James Gate W 2-150.1 1402 1471 40.50% 17.67% 41.83%-0.16 +9.3 4
1929-09-08 @ Brideville L 1-250.1 1471 1402 41.83% 17.67% 40.50%+0.16 -9.3 2
1929-09-08 Shelbourne L 2-457.0 1492 1749 18.39% 17.14% 64.47%-1.31 -7.0 1
1929-09-08 @ Dundalk W 4-257.0 1749 1492 64.47% 17.14% 18.39%+1.31 +7.0 4
1929-09-08 Bray Unknowns W 7-135.2 1678 1294 79.35% 15.66% 4.99%+2.61 +5.9 5
1929-09-08 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-735.2 1294 1678 4.99% 15.66% 79.35%-2.61 -5.9 1
1929-09-14 Bohemian L 1-837.4 1274 1758 5.84% 15.52% 78.64%-2.70 -7.9 1
1929-09-14 @ Jacobs W 8-137.4 1758 1274 78.64% 15.52% 5.84%+2.70 +7.9 8
1929-09-14 Shamrock Rovers L 1-367.0 1756 1684 58.69% 17.52% 23.80%+0.70 -21.8 4
1929-09-14 @ Shelbourne W 3-167.0 1684 1756 23.80% 17.52% 58.69%-0.70 +21.8 7
1929-09-15 Bray Unknowns D 1-156.7 1505 1288 71.25% 16.89% 11.86%+1.59 -3.4 6
1929-09-15 @ Fordsons D 1-156.7 1288 1505 11.86% 16.89% 71.25%-1.59 +3.4 2
1929-09-15 Brideville W 3-037.3 1481 1411 58.39% 17.53% 24.09%+0.69 +16.8 3
1929-09-15 @ Drumconda L 0-337.3 1411 1481 24.09% 17.53% 58.39%-0.69 -16.8 4
1929-09-15 Dundalk W 5-250.8 1461 1485 46.78% 17.67% 35.54%+0.11 +17.2 4
1929-09-15 @ St. James Gate L 2-550.8 1485 1461 35.54% 17.67% 46.78%-0.11 -17.2 1
1929-09-21 Fordsons W 5-042.2 1766 1502 74.05% 16.59% 9.36%+1.88 +11.3 10
1929-09-21 @ Bohemian L 0-542.2 1502 1766 9.36% 16.59% 74.05%-1.88 -11.2 6
1929-09-22 Shelbourne L 1-342.8 1291 1735 7.24% 15.88% 76.88%-2.45 -3.2 2
1929-09-22 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-142.8 1735 1291 76.88% 15.88% 7.24%+2.45 +3.2 6
1929-09-22 Jacobs W 3-137.0 1394 1266 64.33% 17.33% 18.34%+1.05 +7.9 6
1929-09-22 @ Brideville L 1-337.0 1266 1394 18.34% 17.33% 64.33%-1.05 -7.9 1
1929-09-22 Drumconda D 1-161.7 1468 1498 46.03% 17.67% 36.30%+0.08 -0.5 2
1929-09-22 @ Dundalk D 1-161.7 1498 1468 36.30% 17.67% 46.03%-0.08 +0.5 4
1929-09-22 St. James Gate W 1-047.6 1706 1479 71.88% 16.83% 11.29%+1.65 +3.1 9
1929-09-22 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-147.6 1479 1706 11.29% 16.83% 71.88%-1.65 -3.1 4
1929-09-28 Brideville W 3-147.1 1777 1402 79.02% 15.74% 5.24%+2.55 +2.3 12
1929-09-28 @ Bohemian L 1-347.1 1402 1777 5.24% 15.74% 79.02%-2.55 -2.3 6
1929-09-28 Bray Unknowns L 2-457.9 1476 1288 69.15% 17.06% 13.79%+1.41 -23.0 4
1929-09-28 @ St. James Gate W 4-257.9 1288 1476 13.79% 17.06% 69.15%-1.41 +23.0 4
1929-09-29 Shelbourne W 2-167.9 1491 1738 19.28% 17.18% 63.54%-1.25 +13.6 8
1929-09-29 @ Fordsons L 1-267.9 1738 1491 63.54% 17.18% 19.28%+1.25 -13.6 6
1929-09-29 Shamrock Rovers L 0-445.8 1498 1709 22.77% 17.34% 59.89%-1.03 -20.9 4
1929-09-29 @ Drumconda W 4-045.8 1709 1498 59.89% 17.34% 22.77%+1.03 +20.9 11
1929-09-29 Dundalk L 2-836.0 1258 1468 22.87% 17.34% 59.79%-1.02 -21.0 1
1929-09-29 @ Jacobs W 8-236.0 1468 1258 59.79% 17.34% 22.87%+1.02 +21.0 4
1929-10-05 Fordsons W 1-049.1 1400 1504 35.51% 17.63% 46.86%-0.38 +10.8 8
1929-10-05 @ Brideville L 0-149.1 1504 1400 46.86% 17.63% 35.51%+0.38 -10.8 8
1929-10-05 Bohemian L 1-352.3 1489 1780 15.62% 16.96% 67.43%-1.52 -6.8 4
1929-10-05 @ Dundalk W 3-152.3 1780 1489 67.43% 16.96% 15.62%+1.52 +6.8 14
1929-10-05 St. James Gate D 0-066.2 1724 1453 74.46% 16.54% 9.00%+1.92 -4.2 7
1929-10-05 @ Shelbourne D 0-066.2 1453 1724 9.00% 16.54% 74.46%-1.92 +4.2 5
1929-10-06 Drumconda D 3-364.8 1311 1477 27.68% 17.49% 54.83%-0.75 +0.9 5
1929-10-06 @ Bray Unknowns D 3-364.8 1477 1311 54.83% 17.49% 27.68%+0.75 -0.9 5
1929-10-06 Jacobs W 3-138.9 1730 1237 82.56% 14.63% 2.80%+3.27 +1.2 13
1929-10-06 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-338.9 1237 1730 2.80% 14.63% 82.56%-3.27 -1.2 1
1929-10-12 Shamrock Rovers W 5-154.1 1786 1731 56.80% 17.56% 25.64%+0.60 +19.4 16
1929-10-12 @ Bohemian L 1-554.1 1731 1786 25.64% 17.56% 56.80%-0.60 -19.4 13
1929-10-12 Drumconda W 3-149.3 1720 1476 72.89% 16.73% 10.39%+1.75 +4.6 9
1929-10-12 @ Shelbourne L 1-349.3 1476 1720 10.39% 16.73% 72.89%-1.75 -4.6 5
1929-10-13 Dundalk W 3-255.3 1411 1482 40.15% 17.67% 42.18%-0.17 +8.9 10
1929-10-13 @ Brideville L 2-355.3 1482 1411 42.18% 17.67% 40.15%+0.17 -8.9 4
1929-10-13 St. James Gate L 1-256.6 1494 1457 54.62% 17.60% 27.78%+0.49 -11.7 8
1929-10-13 @ Fordsons W 2-156.6 1457 1494 27.78% 17.60% 54.62%-0.49 +11.7 7
1929-10-13 Bray Unknowns D 3-362.0 1236 1312 39.41% 17.66% 42.92%-0.21 +0.1 2
1929-10-13 @ Jacobs D 3-362.0 1312 1236 42.92% 17.66% 39.41%+0.21 -0.1 6
1929-10-19 Bohemian L 0-143.6 1312 1806 5.56% 15.44% 79.00%-2.76 -1.5 6
1929-10-19 @ Bray Unknowns W 1-043.6 1806 1312 79.00% 15.44% 5.56%+2.76 +1.5 18
1929-10-19 Jacobs W 9-133.5 1725 1236 82.46% 14.67% 2.86%+3.25 +4.4 11
1929-10-19 @ Shelbourne L 1-933.5 1236 1725 2.86% 14.67% 82.46%-3.25 -4.4 2
1929-10-19 Drumconda D 2-264.9 1468 1472 49.55% 17.66% 32.79%+0.24 -0.6 8
1929-10-19 @ St. James Gate D 2-264.9 1472 1468 32.79% 17.66% 49.55%-0.24 +0.6 6
1929-10-20 Fordsons L 2-359.4 1473 1482 48.83% 17.66% 33.51%+0.21 -10.0 4
1929-10-20 @ Dundalk W 3-259.4 1482 1473 33.51% 17.66% 48.83%-0.21 +10.1 10
1929-10-20 Brideville L 2-373.3 1712 1420 75.51% 16.40% 8.10%+2.05 -15.4 13
1929-10-20 @ Shamrock Rovers W 3-273.3 1420 1712 8.10% 16.40% 75.51%-2.05 +15.4 12
1929-10-26 Bohemian W 2-058.6 1729 1807 39.13% 17.66% 43.21%-0.22 +19.1 13
1929-10-26 @ Shelbourne L 0-258.6 1807 1729 43.21% 17.66% 39.13%+0.22 -19.1 18
1929-10-27 Brideville W 3-147.6 1310 1435 32.83% 17.60% 49.57%-0.50 +18.6 8
1929-10-27 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-347.6 1435 1310 49.57% 17.60% 32.83%+0.50 -18.6 12
1929-10-27 Drumconda W 2-043.6 1492 1472 52.48% 17.63% 29.89%+0.38 +14.0 12
1929-10-27 @ Fordsons L 0-243.6 1472 1492 29.89% 17.63% 52.48%-0.38 -14.0 6
1929-10-27 Dundalk W 2-150.4 1696 1463 72.26% 16.79% 10.95%+1.69 +2.8 15
1929-10-27 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-250.4 1463 1696 10.95% 16.79% 72.26%-1.69 -2.8 4
1929-10-27 Jacobs D 0-052.3 1468 1231 72.45% 16.77% 10.78%+1.71 -3.9 9
1929-10-27 @ St. James Gate D 0-052.3 1231 1468 10.78% 16.77% 72.45%-1.71 +3.9 3
1929-11-02 St. James Gate W 2-045.0 1788 1464 77.01% 16.15% 6.84%+2.24 +3.5 20
1929-11-02 @ Bohemian L 0-245.0 1464 1788 6.84% 16.15% 77.01%-2.24 -3.5 9
1929-11-02 Shelbourne L 1-644.9 1416 1748 12.79% 16.71% 70.50%-1.77 -12.5 12
1929-11-02 @ Brideville W 6-144.9 1748 1416 70.50% 16.71% 12.79%+1.77 +12.5 15
1929-11-03 Bray Unknowns W 3-032.7 1460 1329 64.56% 17.32% 18.12%+1.06 +13.0 6
1929-11-03 @ Dundalk L 0-332.7 1329 1460 18.12% 17.32% 64.56%-1.06 -13.0 8
1929-11-03 Drumconda L 0-136.6 1235 1458 21.53% 17.29% 61.18%-1.10 -5.6 3
1929-11-03 @ Jacobs W 1-036.6 1458 1235 61.18% 17.29% 21.53%+1.10 +5.5 8
1929-11-03 Fordsons W 4-148.6 1699 1506 69.58% 17.02% 13.39%+1.44 +8.3 17
1929-11-03 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-448.6 1506 1699 13.39% 17.02% 69.58%-1.44 -8.3 12
1929-11-09 Jacobs W 4-133.1 1498 1230 74.25% 16.57% 9.18%+1.90 +5.8 14
1929-11-09 @ Fordsons L 1-433.1 1230 1498 9.18% 16.57% 74.25%-1.90 -5.8 3
1929-11-09 Bohemian D 3-379.1 1464 1792 13.04% 16.73% 70.23%-1.74 +2.0 9
1929-11-09 @ Drumconda D 3-379.1 1792 1464 70.23% 16.73% 13.04%+1.74 -2.0 21
1929-11-09 Dundalk W 1-047.6 1761 1473 75.28% 16.43% 8.29%+2.02 +2.3 17
1929-11-09 @ Shelbourne L 0-147.6 1473 1761 8.29% 16.43% 75.28%-2.02 -2.3 6
1929-11-10 Shamrock Rovers L 0-141.7 1316 1707 9.46% 16.29% 74.25%-2.13 -2.6 8
1929-11-10 @ Bray Unknowns W 1-041.7 1707 1316 74.25% 16.29% 9.46%+2.13 +2.6 19
1929-11-10 Brideville L 0-248.4 1460 1404 56.92% 17.56% 25.52%+0.61 -24.4 9
1929-11-10 @ St. James Gate W 2-048.4 1404 1460 25.52% 17.56% 56.92%-0.61 +24.4 14
1929-11-16 Jacobs W 4-350.2 1790 1224 84.23% 13.88% 1.89%+3.72 +0.4 23
1929-11-16 @ Bohemian L 3-450.2 1224 1790 1.89% 13.88% 84.23%-3.72 -0.4 3
1929-11-16 Fordsons D 3-365.5 1313 1503 24.97% 17.42% 57.61%-0.90 +1.1 9
1929-11-16 @ Bray Unknowns D 3-365.5 1503 1313 57.61% 17.42% 24.97%+0.90 -1.1 15
1929-11-16 Shelbourne L 2-368.7 1710 1763 42.75% 17.67% 39.57%-0.06 -9.0 19
1929-11-16 @ Shamrock Rovers W 3-268.7 1763 1710 39.57% 17.67% 42.75%+0.06 +9.0 19
1929-11-17 Drumconda L 1-251.7 1428 1466 44.90% 17.68% 37.43%+0.03 -9.8 14
1929-11-17 @ Brideville W 2-151.7 1466 1428 37.43% 17.68% 44.90%-0.03 +9.8 11
1929-11-17 St. James Gate W 3-251.5 1471 1436 54.39% 17.60% 28.00%+0.47 +6.3 8
1929-11-17 @ Dundalk L 2-351.5 1436 1471 28.00% 17.60% 54.39%-0.47 -6.3 9
1929-11-23 Brideville L 2-443.0 1224 1418 24.44% 17.40% 58.16%-0.93 -9.1 3
1929-11-23 @ Jacobs W 4-243.0 1418 1224 58.16% 17.40% 24.44%+0.93 +9.1 16
1929-11-23 Bray Unknowns W 6-035.6 1772 1314 81.63% 14.98% 3.39%+3.06 +4.8 21
1929-11-23 @ Shelbourne L 0-635.6 1314 1772 3.39% 14.98% 81.63%-3.06 -4.8 9
1929-11-24 Bohemian W 3-168.1 1502 1790 15.85% 16.97% 67.18%-1.50 +24.9 17
1929-11-24 @ Fordsons L 1-368.1 1790 1502 67.18% 16.97% 15.85%+1.50 -24.9 23
1929-11-24 Dundalk L 0-445.8 1476 1477 49.81% 17.66% 32.54%+0.25 -40.9 11
1929-11-24 @ Drumconda W 4-045.8 1477 1476 32.54% 17.66% 49.81%-0.25 +40.9 10
1929-11-24 Shamrock Rovers L 1-447.9 1430 1701 17.18% 17.06% 65.76%-1.40 -10.4 9
1929-11-24 @ St. James Gate W 4-147.9 1701 1430 65.76% 17.06% 17.18%+1.40 +10.4 21
1929-11-30 Bohemian D 0-066.6 1428 1765 12.40% 16.67% 70.93%-1.80 +3.7 17
1929-11-30 @ Brideville D 0-066.6 1765 1428 70.93% 16.67% 12.40%+1.80 -3.7 24
1929-11-30 Fordsons W 4-149.2 1777 1527 73.23% 16.69% 10.08%+1.79 +6.3 23
1929-11-30 @ Shelbourne L 1-449.2 1527 1777 10.08% 16.69% 73.23%-1.79 -6.3 17
1929-12-01 St. James Gate W 4-144.9 1310 1419 34.82% 17.62% 47.56%-0.41 +25.3 11
1929-12-01 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-444.9 1419 1310 47.56% 17.62% 34.82%+0.41 -25.3 9
1929-12-01 Jacobs W 2-136.3 1518 1215 76.07% 16.31% 7.62%+2.12 +2.0 12
1929-12-01 @ Dundalk L 1-236.3 1215 1518 7.62% 16.31% 76.07%-2.12 -2.0 3
1929-12-01 Drumconda W 2-043.3 1711 1435 74.72% 16.51% 8.77%+1.95 +4.5 23
1929-12-01 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-243.3 1435 1711 8.77% 16.51% 74.72%-1.95 -4.5 11
1929-12-07 Dundalk W 2-152.7 1762 1520 72.77% 16.74% 10.49%+1.74 +2.7 26
1929-12-07 @ Bohemian L 1-252.7 1520 1762 10.49% 16.74% 72.77%-1.74 -2.7 12
1929-12-07 Shelbourne L 3-458.5 1394 1783 9.57% 16.31% 74.12%-2.12 -2.3 9
1929-12-07 @ St. James Gate W 4-358.5 1783 1394 74.12% 16.31% 9.57%+2.12 +2.3 25
1929-12-08 Brideville W 3-144.9 1521 1431 60.52% 17.47% 22.01%+0.81 +9.3 19
1929-12-08 @ Fordsons L 1-344.9 1431 1521 22.01% 17.47% 60.52%-0.81 -9.3 17
1929-12-08 Bray Unknowns W 4-243.8 1430 1335 61.13% 17.45% 21.43%+0.84 +8.1 13
1929-12-08 @ Drumconda L 2-443.8 1335 1430 21.43% 17.45% 61.13%-0.84 -8.1 11
1929-12-08 Shamrock Rovers L 1-338.5 1213 1716 5.29% 15.35% 79.36%-2.82 -2.3 3
1929-12-08 @ Jacobs W 3-138.5 1716 1213 79.36% 15.35% 5.29%+2.82 +2.3 25
1929-12-14 Bohemian L 0-161.0 1718 1764 43.71% 17.68% 38.61%-0.02 -10.2 25
1929-12-14 @ Shamrock Rovers W 1-061.0 1764 1718 38.61% 17.68% 43.71%+0.02 +10.2 28
1929-12-15 Jacobs W 5-133.2 1327 1210 63.22% 17.37% 19.41%+0.97 +15.1 13
1929-12-15 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-533.2 1210 1327 19.41% 17.37% 63.22%-0.97 -15.1 3
1929-12-15 Brideville D 3-369.2 1517 1422 61.13% 17.45% 21.42%+0.84 -1.3 13
1929-12-15 @ Dundalk D 3-369.2 1422 1517 21.42% 17.45% 61.13%-0.84 +1.3 18
1929-12-15 Shelbourne L 1-448.4 1438 1785 11.86% 16.61% 71.53%-1.86 -7.4 13
1929-12-15 @ Drumconda W 4-148.4 1785 1438 71.53% 16.61% 11.86%+1.86 +7.4 27
1929-12-15 Fordsons W 3-046.4 1392 1530 31.07% 17.57% 51.37%-0.59 +32.2 11
1929-12-15 @ St. James Gate L 0-346.4 1530 1392 51.37% 17.57% 31.07%+0.59 -32.2 19
1929-12-28 Bray Unknowns W 3-038.4 1775 1342 80.92% 15.22% 3.86%+2.91 +2.9 30
1929-12-28 @ Bohemian L 0-338.4 1342 1775 3.86% 15.22% 80.92%-2.91 -2.9 13
1929-12-29 Shamrock Rovers D 2-271.9 1423 1708 16.10% 16.99% 66.91%-1.48 +2.1 19
1929-12-29 @ Brideville D 2-271.9 1708 1423 66.91% 16.99% 16.10%+1.48 -2.1 26
1929-12-29 Dundalk L 0-153.2 1498 1516 47.57% 17.67% 34.76%+0.15 -11.0 19
1929-12-29 @ Fordsons W 1-053.2 1516 1498 34.76% 17.67% 47.57%-0.15 +11.0 15
1929-12-29 St. James Gate W 3-038.4 1431 1424 50.94% 17.65% 31.42%+0.31 +21.2 15
1929-12-29 @ Drumconda L 0-338.4 1424 1431 31.42% 17.65% 50.94%-0.31 -21.2 11
1930-03-16 Shelbourne L 2-346.0 1195 1793 3.21% 14.44% 82.35%-3.39 -0.8 3
1930-03-16 @ Jacobs W 3-246.0 1793 1195 82.35% 14.44% 3.21%+3.39 +0.8 29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1929-10-20 8.10% Brideville 1420 3 @ Shamrock Rovers 1712 2
2 1929-09-28 13.79% Bray Unknowns 1288 4 @ St. James Gate 1476 2
3 1929-11-24 15.85% @ Fordsons 1502 3 Bohemian 1790 1
4 1929-09-29 19.28% @ Fordsons 1491 2 Shelbourne 1738 1
5 1929-09-14 23.80% Shamrock Rovers 1684 3 @ Shelbourne 1756 1
6 1929-11-10 25.52% Brideville 1404 2 @ St. James Gate 1460 0
7 1929-10-13 27.78% St. James Gate 1457 2 @ Fordsons 1494 1
8 1929-08-25 28.61% Fordsons 1472 1 @ Drumconda 1502 0
9 1929-12-15 31.07% @ St. James Gate 1392 3 Fordsons 1530 0
10 1929-11-24 32.54% Dundalk 1477 4 @ Drumconda 1476 0
11 1929-10-27 32.83% @ Bray Unknowns 1310 3 Brideville 1435 1
12 1929-10-20 33.51% Fordsons 1482 3 @ Dundalk 1473 2
13 1929-12-29 34.76% Dundalk 1516 1 @ Fordsons 1498 0
14 1929-12-01 34.82% @ Bray Unknowns 1310 4 St. James Gate 1419 1
15 1929-10-05 35.51% @ Brideville 1400 1 Fordsons 1504 0
16 1929-11-17 37.43% Drumconda 1466 2 @ Brideville 1428 1
17 1929-12-14 38.61% Bohemian 1764 1 @ Shamrock Rovers 1718 0
18 1929-10-26 39.13% @ Shelbourne 1729 2 Bohemian 1807 0
19 1929-11-16 39.57% Shelbourne 1763 3 @ Shamrock Rovers 1710 2
20 1929-10-13 40.15% @ Brideville 1411 3 Dundalk 1482 2
21 1929-09-08 40.50% @ Brideville 1402 2 St. James Gate 1471 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1929-08-25 66.37 St. James Gate 8 1422 41.51% @ Jacobs 0 1356 40.82% 17.67%
2 1929-11-24 40.92 Dundalk 4 1477 32.54% @ Drumconda 0 1476 49.81% 17.66%
3 1929-12-15 32.18 @ St. James Gate 3 1392 31.07% Fordsons 0 1530 51.37% 17.57%
4 1929-12-01 25.34 @ Bray Unknowns 4 1310 34.82% St. James Gate 1 1419 47.56% 17.62%
5 1929-11-24 24.86 @ Fordsons 3 1502 15.85% Bohemian 1 1790 67.18% 16.97%
6 1929-11-10 24.41 Brideville 2 1404 25.52% @ St. James Gate 0 1460 56.92% 17.56%
7 1929-09-28 22.95 Bray Unknowns 4 1288 13.79% @ St. James Gate 2 1476 69.15% 17.06%
8 1929-09-14 21.77 Shamrock Rovers 3 1684 23.80% @ Shelbourne 1 1756 58.69% 17.52%
9 1929-12-29 21.20 @ Drumconda 3 1431 50.94% St. James Gate 0 1424 31.42% 17.65%
10 1929-09-29 20.96 Dundalk 8 1468 59.79% @ Jacobs 2 1258 22.87% 17.34%
11 1929-09-29 20.88 Shamrock Rovers 4 1709 59.89% @ Drumconda 0 1498 22.77% 17.34%
12 1929-10-12 19.37 @ Bohemian 5 1786 56.80% Shamrock Rovers 1 1731 25.64% 17.56%
13 1929-09-07 19.09 Fordsons 7 1486 58.02% @ Jacobs 2 1293 24.58% 17.41%
14 1929-10-26 19.06 @ Shelbourne 2 1729 39.13% Bohemian 0 1807 43.21% 17.66%
15 1929-10-27 18.59 @ Bray Unknowns 3 1310 32.83% Brideville 1 1435 49.57% 17.60%
16 1929-08-31 18.07 Bohemian 4 1734 63.41% @ St. James Gate 0 1489 19.40% 17.19%
17 1929-09-15 17.18 @ St. James Gate 5 1461 46.78% Dundalk 2 1485 35.54% 17.67%
18 1929-09-15 16.84 @ Drumconda 3 1481 58.39% Brideville 0 1411 24.09% 17.53%
19 1929-10-20 15.38 Brideville 3 1420 8.10% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1712 75.51% 16.40%
20 1929-12-15 15.11 @ Bray Unknowns 5 1327 63.22% Jacobs 1 1210 19.41% 17.37%
21 1929-10-27 13.99 @ Fordsons 2 1492 52.48% Drumconda 0 1472 29.89% 17.63%
22 1929-09-29 13.57 @ Fordsons 2 1491 19.28% Shelbourne 1 1738 63.54% 17.18%
23 1929-08-25 13.41 Shamrock Rovers 2 1667 54.00% @ Dundalk 0 1507 28.49% 17.51%
24 1929-11-03 13.04 @ Dundalk 3 1460 64.56% Bray Unknowns 0 1329 18.12% 17.32%
25 1929-11-02 12.51 Shelbourne 6 1748 70.50% @ Brideville 1 1416 12.79% 16.71%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1929-11-09 79.1 @ Drumconda 3 1464 13.04% Bohemian 3 1792 70.23% 16.73%
2 1929-10-20 73.3 Brideville 3 1420 8.10% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1712 75.51% 16.40%
3 1929-12-29 71.9 @ Brideville 2 1423 16.10% Shamrock Rovers 2 1708 66.91% 16.99%
4 1929-12-15 69.2 @ Dundalk 3 1517 61.13% Brideville 3 1422 21.42% 17.45%
5 1929-11-16 68.7 Shelbourne 3 1763 39.57% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1710 42.75% 17.67%
6 1929-09-01 68.5 @ Fordsons 1 1485 24.38% Shamrock Rovers 1 1680 58.22% 17.40%
7 1929-11-24 68.1 @ Fordsons 3 1502 15.85% Bohemian 1 1790 67.18% 16.97%
8 1929-09-29 67.9 @ Fordsons 2 1491 19.28% Shelbourne 1 1738 63.54% 17.18%
9 1929-09-14 67.0 Shamrock Rovers 3 1684 23.80% @ Shelbourne 1 1756 58.69% 17.52%
10 1929-11-30 66.6 @ Brideville 0 1428 12.40% Bohemian 0 1765 70.93% 16.67%
11 1929-10-05 66.2 @ Shelbourne 0 1724 74.46% St. James Gate 0 1453 9.00% 16.54%
12 1929-11-16 65.5 @ Bray Unknowns 3 1313 24.97% Fordsons 3 1503 57.61% 17.42%
13 1929-10-19 64.9 @ St. James Gate 2 1468 49.55% Drumconda 2 1472 32.79% 17.66%
14 1929-10-06 64.8 @ Bray Unknowns 3 1311 27.68% Drumconda 3 1477 54.83% 17.49%
15 1929-08-24 62.4 @ Bohemian 2 1726 45.95% Shelbourne 1 1756 36.38% 17.67%
16 1929-10-13 62.0 @ Jacobs 3 1236 39.41% Bray Unknowns 3 1312 42.92% 17.66%
17 1929-09-22 61.7 @ Dundalk 1 1468 46.03% Drumconda 1 1498 36.30% 17.67%
18 1929-12-14 61.0 Bohemian 1 1764 38.61% @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1718 43.71% 17.68%
19 1929-09-01 60.5 @ Bray Unknowns 2 1293 23.76% Dundalk 2 1494 58.87% 17.38%
20 1929-10-20 59.4 Fordsons 3 1482 33.51% @ Dundalk 2 1473 48.83% 17.66%
21 1929-10-26 58.6 @ Shelbourne 2 1729 39.13% Bohemian 0 1807 43.21% 17.66%
22 1929-12-07 58.5 Shelbourne 4 1783 74.12% @ St. James Gate 3 1394 9.57% 16.31%
23 1929-09-28 57.9 Bray Unknowns 4 1288 13.79% @ St. James Gate 2 1476 69.15% 17.06%
24 1929-09-08 57.0 Shelbourne 4 1749 64.47% @ Dundalk 2 1492 18.39% 17.14%
25 1929-08-31 56.7 @ Shelbourne 4 1748 77.85% Brideville 3 1403 6.16% 15.99%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1929-11-03 32.7 @ Dundalk 3 1460 64.56% Bray Unknowns 0 1329 18.12% 17.32%
2 1929-11-09 33.1 @ Fordsons 4 1498 74.25% Jacobs 1 1230 9.18% 16.57%
3 1929-12-15 33.2 @ Bray Unknowns 5 1327 63.22% Jacobs 1 1210 19.41% 17.37%
4 1929-10-19 33.5 @ Shelbourne 9 1725 82.46% Jacobs 1 1236 2.86% 14.67%
5 1929-09-08 35.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 7 1678 79.35% Bray Unknowns 1 1294 4.99% 15.66%
6 1929-11-23 35.6 @ Shelbourne 6 1772 81.63% Bray Unknowns 0 1314 3.39% 14.98%
7 1929-09-29 36.0 Dundalk 8 1468 59.79% @ Jacobs 2 1258 22.87% 17.34%
8 1929-12-01 36.3 @ Dundalk 2 1518 76.07% Jacobs 1 1215 7.62% 16.31%
9 1929-11-03 36.6 Drumconda 1 1458 61.18% @ Jacobs 0 1235 21.53% 17.29%
10 1929-09-22 37.0 @ Brideville 3 1394 64.33% Jacobs 1 1266 18.34% 17.33%
11 1929-09-15 37.3 @ Drumconda 3 1481 58.39% Brideville 0 1411 24.09% 17.53%
12 1929-09-14 37.4 Bohemian 8 1758 78.64% @ Jacobs 1 1274 5.84% 15.52%
13 1929-12-28 38.4 @ Bohemian 3 1775 80.92% Bray Unknowns 0 1342 3.86% 15.22%
14 1929-12-29 38.4 @ Drumconda 3 1431 50.94% St. James Gate 0 1424 31.42% 17.65%
15 1929-12-08 38.5 Shamrock Rovers 3 1716 79.36% @ Jacobs 1 1213 5.29% 15.35%
16 1929-09-07 38.7 Fordsons 7 1486 58.02% @ Jacobs 2 1293 24.58% 17.41%
17 1929-08-25 38.8 St. James Gate 8 1422 41.51% @ Jacobs 0 1356 40.82% 17.67%
18 1929-10-06 38.9 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1730 82.56% Jacobs 1 1237 2.80% 14.63%
19 1929-11-10 41.7 Shamrock Rovers 1 1707 74.25% @ Bray Unknowns 0 1316 9.46% 16.29%
20 1929-09-21 42.2 @ Bohemian 5 1766 74.05% Fordsons 0 1502 9.36% 16.59%
21 1929-09-22 42.8 Shelbourne 3 1735 76.88% @ Bray Unknowns 1 1291 7.24% 15.88%
22 1929-11-23 43.0 Brideville 4 1418 58.16% @ Jacobs 2 1224 24.44% 17.40%
23 1929-12-01 43.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1711 74.72% Drumconda 0 1435 8.77% 16.51%
24 1929-10-19 43.6 Bohemian 1 1806 79.00% @ Bray Unknowns 0 1312 5.56% 15.44%
25 1929-10-27 43.6 @ Fordsons 2 1492 52.48% Drumconda 0 1472 29.89% 17.63%