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1930-31 League of Ireland Season

108 games

Final

Champion

Shelbourne

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Brideville

6.62 points above expected

24 points · 17.38 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Jacobs

7.86 points below expected

0 points · 7.86 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shelbourne 18 11 4 3 26 43 18 +25 26.49 -0.49
2 Bohemian 18 9 6 3 24 38 25 +13 24.35 -0.35
3 Brideville 18 10 4 4 24 43 31 +12 17.38 +6.62
4 Dundalk 18 9 5 4 23 53 35 +18 19.85 +3.15
5 Cork FC 18 9 3 6 21 43 39 +4 17.65 +3.35
6 Shamrock Rovers 18 8 4 6 20 44 40 +4 23.93 -3.93
7 Dolphin 18 8 3 7 19 42 38 +4 16.99 +2.01
8 St. James Gate 18 6 3 9 15 33 37 -4 16.70 -1.70
9 Bray Unknowns 18 6 3 9 15 33 38 -5 14.07 +0.93
10 Waterford 18 6 3 9 15 33 44 -11 15.99 -0.99
11 Drumconda 18 5 4 9 14 32 41 -9 14.74 -0.74
12 Jacobs 18 0 0 18 0 18 69 -51 7.86 -7.86

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brideville 24 17.38 +6.62
2 Cork FC 21 17.65 +3.35
3 Dundalk 23 19.85 +3.15
4 Dolphin 19 16.99 +2.01
5 Bray Unknowns 15 14.07 +0.93

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Jacobs 0 7.86 -7.86
2 Shamrock Rovers 20 23.93 -3.93
3 St. James Gate 15 16.70 -1.70
4 Waterford 15 15.99 -0.99
5 Drumconda 14 14.74 -0.74

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Drumconda 3 Aug 31 – Sep 14 1 in 44
2 Brideville 4 Sep 14 – Oct 12 1 in 43
3 Bray Unknowns 2 Aug 30 – Sep 7 1 in 10
4 Shamrock Rovers 5 Oct 26 – Nov 30 1 in 10
5 Waterford 2 Nov 9 – Nov 16 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jacobs 18 Aug 24 – Apr 30 1 in 978
2 Shamrock Rovers 4 Dec 14 – Feb 15 1 in 295
3 Bohemian 2 Nov 23 – Nov 29 1 in 35
4 Bray Unknowns 5 Nov 9 – Dec 7 1 in 34
5 St. James Gate 4 Aug 23 – Sep 14 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brideville 7 Sep 14 – Nov 2 1 in 54
2 Waterford 4 Nov 9 – Dec 21 1 in 28
3 Dundalk 6 Sep 14 – Oct 26 1 in 20
4 Shamrock Rovers 10 Sep 21 – Dec 6 1 in 16
5 St. James Gate 4 Nov 15 – Dec 14 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shamrock Rovers 5 Dec 6 – Feb 15 1 in 39
2 Bohemian 4 Nov 15 – Dec 6 1 in 38
3 Shelbourne 3 Oct 11 – Oct 25 1 in 16
4 Jacobs 18 Aug 24 – Apr 30 1 in 12
5 Drumconda 7 Nov 16 – Feb 7 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shelbourne 1910 26 +31 9 6.8 +2.2
Bohemian 1892 24 +20 8 6.9 +1.1
Brideville 1714 24 +7 6 5.4 +0.6
Dundalk 1778 23 +65 8 5.4 +2.6
Cork FC 1708 21 +12 6 5.0 +1.0
Shamrock Rovers 1770 20 -87 1 6.0 -5.0
Dolphin 1711 19 +24 7 5.3 +1.7
Bray Unknowns 1621 15 +15 5 3.9 +1.1
Waterford 1647 15 -10 4 4.7 -0.7
St. James Gate 1651 15 -26 3 4.9 -1.9
Drumconda 1628 14 +6 5 3.4 +1.6
Jacobs 1402 0 -30 0 2.3 -2.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH BU BRI COR DOL DRU DUN JAC SR SHE SJG WAT
Bohemian —
1-0-0
2.27
1-0-1
4.26
1-0-1
4.22
1-0-0
2.17
0-2-0
4.43
1-1-0
3.98
1-0-0
2.51
1-1-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.59
1-1-0
4.38
1-0-0
2.14
Bray Unknowns
0-0-1
0.54
 —
1-0-1
2.22
0-1-1
2.07
1-1-0
2.18
1-0-0
1.17
0-1-1
1.92
1-0-0
2.10
1-0-1
1.25
0-0-2
1.09
1-0-1
2.41
0-0-1
1.47
Brideville
1-0-1
1.35
1-0-1
3.37
 —
1-1-0
2.67
1-0-1
2.61
2-0-0
2.82
0-1-0
1.16
2-0-0
4.42
0-1-0
0.83
0-0-1
0.75
0-1-0
1.63
2-0-0
2.90
Cork FC
1-0-1
1.39
1-1-0
3.52
0-1-1
2.92
 —
0-0-2
2.98
1-1-0
3.18
1-0-0
1.19
2-0-0
4.24
0-0-1
0.87
0-0-1
0.71
1-0-0
1.54
2-0-0
3.03
Dolphin
0-0-1
0.64
0-1-1
3.41
1-0-1
2.98
2-0-0
2.60
 —
1-0-0
1.60
0-1-1
2.65
1-0-0
2.31
0-1-1
1.71
1-0-1
1.36
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-0
1.41
Drumconda
0-2-0
1.18
0-0-1
1.63
0-0-2
2.76
0-1-1
2.41
0-0-1
1.20
 —
1-0-1
2.18
1-0-0
2.08
1-0-1
1.38
0-0-2
1.21
1-1-0
2.84
1-0-0
1.21
Dundalk
0-1-1
1.62
1-1-0
3.67
0-1-0
1.63
0-0-1
1.61
1-1-0
2.94
1-0-1
3.41
 —
2-0-0
4.46
1-0-0
1.06
0-1-0
0.80
2-0-0
3.36
1-0-1
3.30
Jacobs
0-0-1
0.32
0-0-1
0.71
0-0-2
1.19
0-0-2
1.37
0-0-1
0.50
0-0-1
0.73
0-0-2
1.16
 —
0-0-2
0.81
0-0-2
0.66
0-0-2
1.43
0-0-2
1.40
Shamrock Rovers
0-1-1
2.51
1-0-1
4.37
0-1-0
1.97
1-0-0
1.93
1-1-0
3.89
1-0-1
4.23
0-0-1
1.73
2-0-0
4.84
 —
1-0-1
2.22
1-0-0
2.05
0-1-1
4.11
Shelbourne
1-1-0
2.99
2-0-0
4.53
1-0-0
2.05
1-0-0
2.09
1-0-1
4.25
2-0-0
4.41
0-1-0
2.00
2-0-0
5.01
1-0-1
3.37
 —
0-0-1
2.25
0-2-0
4.38
St. James Gate
0-1-1
1.24
1-0-1
3.18
0-1-0
1.17
0-0-1
1.26
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.23
2-0-0
4.18
0-0-1
0.76
1-0-0
0.56
 —
1-0-1
2.62
Waterford
0-0-1
0.67
1-0-0
1.32
0-0-2
2.69
0-0-2
2.56
0-0-1
1.38
0-0-1
1.58
1-0-1
2.29
2-0-0
4.21
1-1-0
1.50
0-2-0
1.23
1-0-1
2.97
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.78 +7.0
Allowed 0.86 -5.3
Differential 0.97 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
00.93%1.85%2.31%2.31%0.93%1.85%10.19%
11.85%9.26%7.41%5.56%5.09%1.39%30.56%
22.31%7.41%7.41%3.70%4.17%0.93%25.93%
32.31%5.56%3.70%1.85%1.39%1.39%16.20%
40.93%5.09%4.17%1.39%——11.57%
5+1.85%1.39%0.93%1.39%——5.56%
Total10.19%30.56%25.93%16.20%11.57%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 2.11 +0.00
SD 1.51 1.51 2.36
CV 0.72 0.72 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 108

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
15.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
2—16.67%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%44.44%27.78%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.39 +0.72
SD 1.23 1.04 1.53
CV 0.58 0.75 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%————5.56%11.11%
1—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
25.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%—44.44%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%22.22%16.67%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 2.11 -0.28
SD 1.04 1.53 2.05
CV 0.57 0.72 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
1—16.67%—11.11%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
35.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
4—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total5.56%44.44%27.78%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 1.72 +0.67
SD 1.38 1.02 1.91
CV 0.58 0.59 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
2—16.67%—5.56%5.56%—27.78%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total5.56%44.44%5.56%27.78%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 2.17 +0.22
SD 1.65 1.54 2.32
CV 0.69 0.71 —
Max 7 6 +4
Min 1 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
1——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
2—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total5.56%22.22%44.44%11.11%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 2.11 +0.22
SD 1.68 1.13 2.21
CV 0.72 0.54 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
1—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total—27.78%33.33%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 2.28 -0.50
SD 1.17 1.13 1.69
CV 0.66 0.49 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 1 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
1—11.11%—5.56%11.11%—27.78%
2—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
5+5.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
Total5.56%38.89%22.22%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.94 1.94 +1.00
SD 2.18 1.16 2.83
CV 0.74 0.60 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—5.56%11.11%27.78%
1——16.67%11.11%11.11%11.11%50.00%
2———5.56%11.11%—16.67%
3—————5.56%5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total—5.56%22.22%16.67%27.78%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 3.83 -2.83
SD 0.84 1.82 2.01
CV 0.84 0.48 —
Max 3 7 -1
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
15.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
2—5.56%11.11%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
5+5.56%——5.56%——11.11%
Total11.11%22.22%33.33%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 2.22 +0.22
SD 1.82 1.59 2.73
CV 0.75 0.72 —
Max 7 6 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
1—16.67%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
222.22%5.56%5.56%———33.33%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total33.33%44.44%16.67%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 1.00 +1.39
SD 1.72 1.03 2.30
CV 0.72 1.03 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
15.56%11.11%16.67%—11.11%—44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
35.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%27.78%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 2.06 -0.22
SD 1.15 1.70 1.99
CV 0.63 0.83 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
1—11.11%5.56%16.67%5.56%—38.89%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
35.56%—16.67%—5.56%5.56%33.33%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%27.78%22.22%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 2.44 -0.61
SD 1.20 1.69 2.25
CV 0.65 0.69 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shelbourne 1910 26 26.49 -0.49 47.0% 18 21 25 27 29 31 35
Bohemian 1892 24 24.35 -0.35 52.0% 14 18 22 24 27 30 34
Dundalk 1778 23 19.85 +3.15 80.0% 9 14 17 20 23 25 28
Shamrock Rovers 1770 20 23.93 -3.93 12.0% 15 18 22 24 26 28 32
Brideville 1714 24 17.38 +6.62 97.0% 9 12 15 17 19 23 27
Dolphin 1711 19 16.99 +2.01 79.0% 8 11 14 17 19 24 26
Cork FC 1708 21 17.65 +3.35 85.0% 7 13 15 17 20 24 26
St. James Gate 1651 15 16.70 -1.70 37.0% 6 9 14 17 20 24 26
Waterford 1647 15 15.99 -0.99 46.0% 7 10 13 16 19 22 27
Drumconda 1628 14 14.74 -0.74 48.0% 6 9 12 15 17 20 23
Bray Unknowns 1621 15 14.07 +0.93 64.0% 6 7 12 14 16 20 22
Jacobs 1402 0 7.86 -7.86 0.0% 3 4 6 8 10 13 16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.93%
No Edge
40.74%19.44%39.81%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 3.22 Elo pts.
164 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.18 goals
Neutral
-2+0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
57%
Shelbourne, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.85 * Some Luck: 2.85 to 4.27 * Lucky: 4.27 to 5.69 * Wild Swing: 5.69 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.37 * Close: 1.37 to 2.06 * Off: 2.06 to 2.74 * Way Off: 2.74 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.56 points
Some Luck
03.569
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.83
Pinpoint
01.714
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.00%
Brideville
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
Jacobs
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 133.87
1.84
Moderate Separation
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
68%
Even
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
95%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
48%
Few
0%47%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Very Frequent
0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Slight Separation
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.27
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.66
Strong Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Shaky Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.99
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.055
Well Within Noise
00.1630.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Shelbourne57.00%19.00%13.00%8.00%1.00%2.00%——————
Bohemian27.00%28.00%16.00%11.00%11.00%2.00%3.00%2.00%————
Brideville—3.00%6.00%11.00%11.00%20.00%12.00%11.00%15.00%6.00%2.00%3.00%
Dundalk2.00%13.00%13.00%17.00%18.00%13.00%8.00%4.00%7.00%3.00%2.00%—
Cork FC—3.00%7.00%10.00%10.00%16.00%10.00%15.00%18.00%5.00%4.00%2.00%
Shamrock Rovers12.00%26.00%33.00%17.00%7.00%1.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%———
Dolphin1.00%4.00%2.00%9.00%12.00%9.00%19.00%15.00%8.00%15.00%5.00%1.00%
St. James Gate—3.00%5.00%7.00%10.00%13.00%14.00%10.00%11.00%13.00%9.00%5.00%
Bray Unknowns——2.00%4.00%3.00%4.00%9.00%15.00%16.00%23.00%19.00%5.00%
Waterford—1.00%2.00%3.00%12.00%13.00%9.00%12.00%14.00%20.00%12.00%2.00%
Drumconda1.00%—1.00%3.00%5.00%7.00%15.00%14.00%9.00%13.00%28.00%4.00%
Jacobs————————1.00%2.00%19.00%78.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Bohemian 100%
Bray Unknowns 100%
Brideville 100%
Cork FC 100%
Dolphin 100%
Drumconda 100%
Dundalk 100%
Jacobs 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
St. James Gate 100%
Waterford 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1930-08-23 Bray Unknowns W 5-043.4 1891 1590 71.47% 18.47% 10.06%+1.86 +9.6 2
1930-08-23 @ Shelbourne L 0-543.4 1590 1891 10.06% 18.47% 71.47%-1.86 -9.5 0
1930-08-23 Bohemian L 0-151.7 1647 1881 14.64% 19.34% 66.02%-1.41 -3.1 0
1930-08-23 @ St. James Gate W 1-051.7 1881 1647 66.02% 19.34% 14.64%+1.41 +3.1 2
1930-08-24 Drumconda W 3-160.3 1635 1658 37.17% 20.62% 42.21%-0.12 +12.7 2
1930-08-24 @ Brideville L 1-360.3 1658 1635 42.21% 20.62% 37.17%+0.12 -12.7 0
1930-08-24 Dolphin L 2-465.4 1685 1691 39.50% 20.63% 39.88%-0.02 -10.7 0
1930-08-24 @ Cork FC W 4-265.4 1691 1685 39.88% 20.63% 39.50%+0.02 +10.7 2
1930-08-24 Waterford W 7-360.5 1724 1691 44.97% 20.60% 34.43%+0.22 +15.2 2
1930-08-24 @ Dundalk L 3-760.5 1691 1724 34.43% 20.60% 44.97%-0.22 -15.2 0
1930-08-24 Jacobs W 7-043.9 1833 1505 73.15% 18.09% 8.76%+2.03 +11.4 2
1930-08-24 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-743.9 1505 1833 8.76% 18.09% 73.15%-2.03 -11.4 0
1930-08-30 Shelbourne L 1-263.3 1884 1900 38.04% 20.62% 41.33%-0.08 -6.7 2
1930-08-30 @ Bohemian W 2-163.3 1900 1884 41.33% 20.62% 38.04%+0.08 +6.7 4
1930-08-30 Brideville W 3-161.1 1581 1648 31.16% 20.52% 48.31%-0.39 +14.2 2
1930-08-30 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-361.1 1648 1581 48.31% 20.52% 31.16%+0.39 -14.2 2
1930-08-30 Cork FC L 1-448.7 1493 1674 18.90% 19.86% 61.24%-1.08 -9.1 0
1930-08-30 @ Jacobs W 4-148.7 1674 1493 61.24% 19.86% 18.90%+1.08 +9.1 2
1930-08-30 St. James Gate W 3-265.8 1676 1644 44.85% 20.60% 34.55%+0.21 +5.9 2
1930-08-30 @ Waterford L 2-365.8 1644 1676 34.55% 20.60% 44.85%-0.21 -5.9 0
1930-08-31 Dundalk D 2-275.5 1701 1739 35.14% 20.60% 44.26%-0.21 +0.3 3
1930-08-31 @ Dolphin D 2-275.5 1739 1701 44.26% 20.60% 35.14%+0.21 -0.3 3
1930-08-31 Shamrock Rovers W 2-170.1 1645 1845 17.29% 19.69% 63.02%-1.20 +10.5 2
1930-08-31 @ Drumconda L 1-270.1 1845 1645 63.02% 19.69% 17.29%+1.20 -10.5 2
1930-09-03 Jacobs W 7-042.9 1907 1484 77.90% 16.66% 5.44%+2.60 +7.0 6
1930-09-03 @ Shelbourne L 0-742.9 1484 1907 5.44% 16.66% 77.90%-2.60 -7.0 0
1930-09-06 Bohemian L 0-345.8 1634 1877 13.99% 19.24% 66.77%-1.47 -8.1 2
1930-09-06 @ Brideville W 3-045.8 1877 1634 66.77% 19.24% 13.99%+1.47 +8.2 4
1930-09-07 Waterford W 4-158.1 1683 1681 40.59% 20.63% 38.78%+0.03 +16.7 4
1930-09-07 @ Cork FC L 1-458.1 1681 1683 38.78% 20.63% 40.59%-0.03 -16.7 2
1930-09-07 Drumconda L 1-462.1 1738 1656 51.50% 20.44% 28.06%+0.53 -21.2 3
1930-09-07 @ Dundalk W 4-162.1 1656 1738 28.06% 20.44% 51.50%-0.53 +21.2 4
1930-09-07 Dolphin D 2-276.0 1834 1702 57.28% 20.17% 22.55%+0.83 -1.1 3
1930-09-07 @ Shamrock Rovers D 2-276.0 1702 1834 22.55% 20.17% 57.28%-0.83 +1.1 4
1930-09-07 Bray Unknowns L 1-262.9 1638 1595 46.35% 20.57% 33.08%+0.28 -7.9 0
1930-09-07 @ St. James Gate W 2-162.9 1595 1638 33.08% 20.57% 46.35%-0.28 +7.9 4
1930-09-13 Shamrock Rovers W 5-261.3 1886 1833 47.62% 20.55% 31.83%+0.34 +12.3 6
1930-09-13 @ Bohemian L 2-561.3 1833 1886 31.83% 20.55% 47.62%-0.34 -12.3 3
1930-09-13 Cork FC D 1-169.7 1603 1700 27.53% 20.41% 52.06%-0.57 +1.0 5
1930-09-13 @ Bray Unknowns D 1-169.7 1700 1603 52.06% 20.41% 27.53%+0.57 -1.0 5
1930-09-14 Brideville L 1-461.3 1703 1626 50.80% 20.47% 28.73%+0.49 -21.0 4
1930-09-14 @ Dolphin W 4-161.3 1626 1703 28.73% 20.47% 50.80%-0.49 +21.0 4
1930-09-14 St. James Gate W 3-265.1 1677 1630 46.91% 20.56% 32.53%+0.31 +5.6 6
1930-09-14 @ Drumconda L 2-365.1 1630 1677 32.53% 20.56% 46.91%-0.31 -5.6 0
1930-09-14 Dundalk L 1-546.5 1477 1717 14.24% 19.28% 66.48%-1.45 -9.0 0
1930-09-14 @ Jacobs W 5-146.5 1717 1477 66.48% 19.28% 14.24%+1.45 +9.0 5
1930-09-14 Shelbourne D 1-171.7 1665 1914 13.59% 19.18% 67.23%-1.50 +2.3 3
1930-09-14 @ Waterford D 1-171.7 1914 1665 67.23% 19.18% 13.59%+1.50 -2.3 7
1930-09-20 Bohemian D 2-276.3 1726 1898 19.70% 19.93% 60.37%-1.03 +1.3 6
1930-09-20 @ Dundalk D 2-276.3 1898 1726 60.37% 19.93% 19.70%+1.03 -1.3 7
1930-09-20 Dolphin L 1-271.2 1912 1682 66.44% 19.32% 14.24%+1.43 -11.0 7
1930-09-20 @ Shelbourne W 2-171.2 1682 1912 14.24% 19.32% 66.44%-1.43 +11.1 6
1930-09-20 Jacobs W 1-047.3 1624 1468 59.75% 20.00% 20.24%+0.97 +4.2 2
1930-09-20 @ St. James Gate L 0-147.3 1468 1624 20.24% 20.00% 59.75%-0.97 -4.2 0
1930-09-21 Waterford W 3-053.3 1647 1667 37.47% 20.62% 41.91%-0.11 +21.1 6
1930-09-21 @ Brideville L 0-353.3 1667 1647 41.91% 20.62% 37.47%+0.11 -21.1 3
1930-09-21 Drumconda W 2-161.9 1699 1683 42.67% 20.62% 36.72%+0.12 +6.5 7
1930-09-21 @ Cork FC L 1-261.9 1683 1699 36.72% 20.62% 42.67%-0.12 -6.5 6
1930-09-21 Bray Unknowns W 4-151.1 1821 1604 65.38% 19.45% 15.17%+1.35 +7.4 5
1930-09-21 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-451.1 1604 1821 15.17% 19.45% 65.38%-1.35 -7.4 5
1930-09-27 Cork FC W 2-156.6 1897 1705 63.15% 19.70% 17.15%+1.19 +3.4 9
1930-09-27 @ Bohemian L 1-256.6 1705 1897 17.15% 19.70% 63.15%-1.19 -3.4 7
1930-09-27 Shelbourne L 0-248.9 1676 1901 15.32% 19.44% 65.24%-1.35 -6.1 6
1930-09-27 @ Drumconda W 2-048.9 1901 1676 65.24% 19.44% 15.32%+1.35 +6.1 9
1930-09-28 Dundalk D 2-274.7 1596 1728 23.69% 20.22% 56.08%-0.78 +1.0 6
1930-09-28 @ Bray Unknowns D 2-274.7 1728 1596 56.08% 20.22% 23.69%+0.78 -1.0 7
1930-09-28 Jacobs W 2-151.1 1668 1464 64.24% 19.59% 16.17%+1.26 +3.2 8
1930-09-28 @ Brideville L 1-251.1 1464 1668 16.17% 19.59% 64.24%-1.26 -3.2 0
1930-09-28 St. James Gate L 0-355.5 1693 1628 49.19% 20.51% 30.30%+0.41 -24.2 6
1930-09-28 @ Dolphin W 3-055.5 1628 1693 30.30% 20.51% 49.19%-0.41 +24.2 4
1930-09-28 Shamrock Rovers D 1-171.2 1646 1828 18.75% 19.84% 61.41%-1.09 +1.8 4
1930-09-28 @ Waterford D 1-171.2 1828 1646 61.41% 19.84% 18.75%+1.09 -1.8 6
1930-10-05 Cork FC L 3-469.9 1648 1702 32.88% 20.56% 46.55%-0.31 -5.5 4
1930-10-05 @ Waterford W 4-369.9 1702 1648 46.55% 20.56% 32.88%+0.31 +5.5 9
1930-10-10 Drumconda D 1-171.6 1900 1670 66.44% 19.32% 14.24%+1.43 -2.2 10
1930-10-10 @ Bohemian D 1-171.6 1670 1900 14.24% 19.32% 66.44%-1.43 +2.2 7
1930-10-11 Shelbourne W 1-063.0 1826 1907 29.51% 20.48% 50.02%-0.47 +9.0 8
1930-10-11 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-163.0 1907 1826 50.02% 20.48% 29.51%+0.47 -9.0 9
1930-10-12 Brideville L 2-369.7 1707 1671 45.47% 20.59% 33.94%+0.24 -7.4 9
1930-10-12 @ Cork FC W 3-269.7 1671 1707 33.94% 20.59% 45.47%-0.24 +7.4 10
1930-10-12 Bray Unknowns L 1-362.2 1669 1597 50.08% 20.49% 29.43%+0.46 -14.6 6
1930-10-12 @ Dolphin W 3-162.2 1597 1669 29.43% 20.49% 50.08%-0.46 +14.6 8
1930-10-12 St. James Gate W 4-155.2 1727 1653 50.39% 20.48% 29.13%+0.47 +13.2 9
1930-10-12 @ Dundalk L 1-455.2 1653 1727 29.13% 20.48% 50.39%-0.47 -13.2 4
1930-10-12 Waterford L 2-356.2 1461 1642 18.82% 19.85% 61.33%-1.09 -3.5 0
1930-10-12 @ Jacobs W 3-256.2 1642 1461 61.33% 19.85% 18.82%+1.09 +3.5 6
1930-10-18 Shamrock Rovers D 2-276.0 1678 1835 21.07% 20.04% 58.88%-0.94 +1.2 11
1930-10-18 @ Brideville D 2-276.0 1835 1678 58.88% 20.04% 21.07%+0.94 -1.2 9
1930-10-18 Dundalk D 1-171.5 1898 1740 59.98% 19.99% 20.03%+0.99 -1.7 10
1930-10-18 @ Shelbourne D 1-171.5 1740 1898 20.03% 19.99% 59.98%-0.99 +1.7 10
1930-10-25 Bohemian L 1-251.0 1457 1898 5.24% 16.48% 78.28%-2.67 -1.0 0
1930-10-25 @ Jacobs W 2-151.0 1898 1457 78.28% 16.48% 5.24%+2.67 +1.0 12
1930-10-25 St. James Gate L 1-467.4 1896 1639 68.50% 19.02% 12.49%+1.59 -27.9 10
1930-10-25 @ Shelbourne W 4-167.4 1639 1896 12.49% 19.02% 68.50%-1.59 +27.9 6
1930-10-26 Drumconda W 3-054.5 1612 1672 32.08% 20.55% 47.37%-0.35 +23.4 10
1930-10-26 @ Bray Unknowns L 0-354.5 1672 1612 47.37% 20.55% 32.08%+0.35 -23.4 7
1930-10-26 Dundalk D 1-170.7 1679 1741 31.86% 20.54% 47.60%-0.36 +0.6 12
1930-10-26 @ Brideville D 1-170.7 1741 1679 47.60% 20.54% 31.86%+0.36 -0.6 11
1930-10-26 Cork FC W 3-155.9 1834 1700 57.47% 20.16% 22.37%+0.84 +7.5 11
1930-10-26 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-355.9 1700 1834 22.37% 20.16% 57.47%-0.84 -7.5 9
1930-10-26 Dolphin L 1-359.5 1646 1654 39.18% 20.63% 40.19%-0.03 -11.9 6
1930-10-26 @ Waterford W 3-159.5 1654 1646 40.19% 20.63% 39.18%+0.03 +11.9 8
1930-11-02 Jacobs W 2-150.7 1693 1456 66.93% 19.25% 13.82%+1.46 +2.8 11
1930-11-02 @ Cork FC L 1-250.7 1456 1693 13.82% 19.25% 66.93%-1.46 -2.8 0
1930-11-02 Brideville L 1-358.1 1634 1680 33.92% 20.58% 45.50%-0.26 -10.6 6
1930-11-02 @ Waterford W 3-158.1 1680 1634 45.50% 20.58% 33.92%+0.26 +10.6 14
1930-11-08 Bohemian L 1-255.7 1666 1899 14.74% 19.36% 65.91%-1.40 -3.0 8
1930-11-08 @ Dolphin W 2-155.7 1899 1666 65.91% 19.36% 14.74%+1.40 +2.9 14
1930-11-08 Brideville W 3-154.6 1868 1691 61.88% 19.83% 18.29%+1.11 +6.2 12
1930-11-08 @ Shelbourne L 1-354.6 1691 1868 18.29% 19.83% 61.88%-1.11 -6.2 14
1930-11-09 Waterford L 2-367.3 1635 1623 42.10% 20.62% 37.28%+0.09 -6.9 10
1930-11-09 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-267.3 1623 1635 37.28% 20.62% 42.10%-0.09 +6.9 8
1930-11-09 Cork FC L 1-460.9 1741 1695 46.70% 20.57% 32.74%+0.30 -19.5 11
1930-11-09 @ Dundalk W 4-160.9 1695 1741 32.74% 20.57% 46.70%-0.30 +19.5 13
1930-11-09 Drumconda L 1-348.3 1453 1649 17.63% 19.73% 62.64%-1.17 -6.0 0
1930-11-09 @ Jacobs W 3-148.3 1649 1453 62.64% 19.73% 17.63%+1.17 +6.0 9
1930-11-09 St. James Gate W 2-156.8 1842 1667 61.57% 19.85% 18.58%+1.09 +3.6 13
1930-11-09 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-256.8 1667 1842 18.58% 19.85% 61.57%-1.09 -3.7 6
1930-11-15 St. James Gate D 1-171.6 1902 1664 67.08% 19.23% 13.69%+1.48 -2.3 15
1930-11-15 @ Bohemian D 1-171.6 1664 1902 13.69% 19.23% 67.08%-1.48 +2.3 7
1930-11-15 Shelbourne L 2-360.4 1628 1875 13.81% 19.21% 66.98%-1.49 -2.6 10
1930-11-15 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-260.4 1875 1628 66.98% 19.21% 13.81%+1.49 +2.6 14
1930-11-15 Cork FC W 6-158.5 1663 1715 33.19% 20.57% 46.24%-0.30 +30.5 10
1930-11-15 @ Dolphin L 1-658.5 1715 1663 46.24% 20.57% 33.19%+0.30 -30.5 13
1930-11-16 Brideville L 2-561.3 1655 1684 36.18% 20.61% 43.21%-0.16 -13.7 9
1930-11-16 @ Drumconda W 5-261.3 1684 1655 43.21% 20.61% 36.18%+0.16 +13.7 16
1930-11-16 Shamrock Rovers L 3-556.8 1447 1845 6.50% 17.16% 76.34%-2.41 -1.9 0
1930-11-16 @ Jacobs W 5-356.8 1845 1447 76.34% 17.16% 6.50%+2.41 +1.9 15
1930-11-16 Dundalk W 3-056.4 1630 1721 28.21% 20.43% 51.36%-0.54 +25.1 10
1930-11-16 @ Waterford L 0-356.4 1721 1630 51.36% 20.43% 28.21%+0.54 -25.1 11
1930-11-19 Dolphin L 2-365.6 1641 1694 33.09% 20.57% 46.34%-0.30 -5.7 9
1930-11-19 @ Drumconda W 3-265.6 1694 1641 46.34% 20.57% 33.09%+0.30 +5.7 12
1930-11-23 Bray Unknowns W 4-261.8 1698 1626 50.20% 20.48% 29.31%+0.46 +8.4 18
1930-11-23 @ Brideville L 2-461.8 1626 1698 29.31% 20.48% 50.20%-0.46 -8.4 10
1930-11-23 Dolphin W 4-372.3 1696 1699 39.94% 20.63% 39.43%+0.00 +6.4 13
1930-11-23 @ Dundalk L 3-472.3 1699 1696 39.43% 20.63% 39.94%+0.00 -6.4 12
1930-11-23 Drumconda W 4-365.2 1847 1635 64.94% 19.51% 15.55%+1.31 +2.9 17
1930-11-23 @ Shamrock Rovers L 3-465.2 1635 1847 15.55% 19.51% 64.94%-1.31 -2.9 9
1930-11-23 Bohemian W 1-066.9 1684 1899 16.04% 19.54% 64.42%-1.30 +11.4 15
1930-11-23 @ Cork FC L 0-166.9 1899 1684 64.42% 19.54% 16.04%+1.30 -11.4 15
1930-11-29 Brideville L 2-472.9 1888 1707 62.24% 19.79% 17.97%+1.13 -16.1 15
1930-11-29 @ Bohemian W 4-272.9 1707 1888 17.97% 19.79% 62.24%-1.13 +16.1 20
1930-11-29 Shelbourne L 1-446.5 1446 1877 5.47% 16.62% 77.91%-2.62 -2.7 0
1930-11-29 @ Jacobs W 4-146.5 1877 1446 77.91% 16.62% 5.47%+2.62 +2.7 16
1930-11-30 St. James Gate L 1-259.9 1617 1666 33.62% 20.58% 45.81%-0.28 -6.1 10
1930-11-30 @ Bray Unknowns W 2-159.9 1666 1617 45.81% 20.58% 33.62%+0.28 +6.1 9
1930-11-30 Shamrock Rovers L 2-460.5 1693 1850 21.05% 20.04% 58.90%-0.94 -6.3 12
1930-11-30 @ Dolphin W 4-260.5 1850 1693 58.90% 20.04% 21.05%+0.94 +6.3 19
1930-11-30 Dundalk L 1-357.4 1633 1703 30.82% 20.52% 48.67%-0.41 -9.8 9
1930-11-30 @ Drumconda W 3-157.4 1703 1633 48.67% 20.52% 30.82%+0.41 +9.8 15
1930-12-06 Bohemian D 3-381.2 1856 1872 38.15% 20.62% 41.23%-0.08 +0.1 20
1930-12-06 @ Shamrock Rovers D 3-381.2 1872 1856 41.23% 20.62% 38.15%+0.08 -0.1 16
1930-12-06 Waterford D 2-276.3 1880 1655 66.02% 19.37% 14.61%+1.39 -1.6 17
1930-12-06 @ Shelbourne D 2-276.3 1655 1880 14.61% 19.37% 66.02%-1.39 +1.6 11
1930-12-07 St. James Gate D 1-170.5 1723 1672 47.38% 20.56% 32.06%+0.33 -0.6 21
1930-12-07 @ Brideville D 1-170.5 1672 1723 32.06% 20.56% 47.38%-0.33 +0.6 10
1930-12-07 Bray Unknowns W 2-158.4 1696 1611 51.69% 20.44% 27.87%+0.53 +5.2 17
1930-12-07 @ Cork FC L 1-258.4 1611 1696 27.87% 20.44% 51.69%-0.53 -5.2 10
1930-12-07 Jacobs W 7-143.9 1712 1443 69.39% 18.87% 11.74%+1.67 +10.9 17
1930-12-07 @ Dundalk L 1-743.9 1443 1712 11.74% 18.87% 69.39%-1.67 -10.9 0
1930-12-13 Dundalk W 3-155.5 1872 1723 59.00% 20.06% 20.94%+0.93 +7.0 18
1930-12-13 @ Bohemian L 1-355.5 1723 1872 20.94% 20.06% 59.00%-0.93 -7.0 17
1930-12-13 Shelbourne L 0-249.7 1687 1878 17.92% 19.76% 62.32%-1.15 -7.1 12
1930-12-13 @ Dolphin W 2-049.7 1878 1687 62.32% 19.76% 17.92%+1.15 +7.1 19
1930-12-14 Shamrock Rovers W 4-273.8 1606 1857 13.53% 19.16% 67.31%-1.51 +17.3 12
1930-12-14 @ Bray Unknowns L 2-473.8 1857 1606 67.31% 19.16% 13.53%+1.51 -17.3 20
1930-12-14 Cork FC D 3-379.7 1623 1701 29.81% 20.49% 49.70%-0.46 +0.5 10
1930-12-14 @ Drumconda D 3-379.7 1701 1623 49.70% 20.49% 29.81%+0.46 -0.5 18
1930-12-14 St. James Gate L 2-452.3 1432 1673 14.19% 19.27% 66.53%-1.45 -4.4 0
1930-12-14 @ Jacobs W 4-252.3 1673 1432 66.53% 19.27% 14.19%+1.45 +4.4 12
1930-12-20 Brideville L 1-347.4 1428 1722 10.90% 18.63% 70.47%-1.78 -3.8 0
1930-12-20 @ Jacobs W 3-147.4 1722 1428 70.47% 18.63% 10.90%+1.78 +3.8 23
1930-12-20 Drumconda W 2-047.6 1885 1623 68.87% 18.95% 12.17%+1.62 +4.9 21
1930-12-20 @ Shelbourne L 0-247.6 1623 1885 12.17% 18.95% 68.87%-1.62 -4.9 10
1930-12-21 Bray Unknowns W 4-261.2 1716 1623 52.73% 20.40% 26.87%+0.59 +7.8 19
1930-12-21 @ Dundalk L 2-461.2 1623 1716 26.87% 20.40% 52.73%-0.59 -7.8 12
1930-12-21 Waterford L 1-269.9 1839 1657 62.31% 19.79% 17.90%+1.13 -10.4 20
1930-12-21 @ Shamrock Rovers W 2-169.9 1657 1839 17.90% 19.79% 62.31%-1.13 +10.4 13
1930-12-21 Dolphin L 1-458.4 1677 1679 40.02% 20.63% 39.35%+0.00 -17.1 12
1930-12-21 @ St. James Gate W 4-158.4 1679 1677 39.35% 20.63% 40.02%+0.00 +17.1 14
1930-12-27 Shamrock Rovers W 2-054.0 1890 1829 48.81% 20.52% 30.67%+0.40 +11.3 23
1930-12-27 @ Shelbourne L 0-254.0 1829 1890 30.67% 20.52% 48.81%-0.40 -11.3 20
1930-12-28 Dundalk L 1-260.3 1660 1724 31.56% 20.53% 47.90%-0.37 -5.8 12
1930-12-28 @ St. James Gate W 2-160.3 1724 1660 47.90% 20.53% 31.56%+0.37 +5.8 21
1931-01-25 Dolphin D 0-067.0 1616 1697 29.44% 20.48% 50.08%-0.48 +0.9 13
1931-01-25 @ Bray Unknowns D 0-067.0 1697 1616 50.08% 20.48% 29.44%+0.48 -0.9 15
1931-02-07 Drumconda D 2-274.0 1654 1618 45.38% 20.59% 34.03%+0.24 -0.3 13
1931-02-07 @ St. James Gate D 2-274.0 1618 1654 34.03% 20.59% 45.38%-0.24 +0.3 11
1931-02-08 Shelbourne L 1-452.3 1700 1902 17.14% 19.67% 63.19%-1.21 -8.3 18
1931-02-08 @ Cork FC W 4-152.3 1902 1700 63.19% 19.67% 17.14%+1.21 +8.3 25
1931-02-14 Cork FC L 3-760.1 1654 1692 35.00% 20.60% 44.40%-0.21 -15.4 13
1931-02-14 @ St. James Gate W 7-360.1 1692 1654 44.40% 20.60% 35.00%+0.21 +15.4 20
1931-02-14 Bohemian D 1-171.4 1910 1879 44.72% 20.60% 34.68%+0.21 -0.4 26
1931-02-14 @ Shelbourne D 1-171.4 1879 1910 34.68% 20.60% 44.72%-0.21 +0.4 19
1931-02-15 Jacobs W 2-041.2 1617 1424 63.27% 19.69% 17.04%+1.20 +6.8 15
1931-02-15 @ Bray Unknowns L 0-241.2 1424 1617 17.04% 19.69% 63.27%-1.20 -6.8 0
1931-02-15 Shamrock Rovers W 6-057.3 1730 1818 28.63% 20.45% 50.92%-0.52 +47.7 23
1931-02-15 @ Dundalk L 0-657.3 1818 1730 50.92% 20.45% 28.63%+0.52 -47.7 20
1931-02-15 Waterford W 2-163.6 1619 1667 33.61% 20.58% 45.82%-0.28 +7.8 13
1931-02-15 @ Drumconda L 1-263.6 1667 1619 45.82% 20.58% 33.61%+0.28 -7.8 13
1931-02-15 Dolphin L 2-467.2 1726 1696 44.61% 20.60% 34.79%+0.20 -11.8 23
1931-02-15 @ Brideville W 4-267.2 1696 1726 34.79% 20.60% 44.61%-0.20 +11.8 17
1931-03-04 Bohemian L 0-445.4 1659 1879 15.68% 19.49% 64.83%-1.32 -11.9 13
1931-03-04 @ Waterford W 4-045.4 1879 1659 64.83% 19.49% 15.68%+1.32 +11.8 21
1931-04-19 Jacobs W 4-251.6 1708 1417 70.82% 18.60% 10.58%+1.80 +3.3 19
1931-04-19 @ Dolphin L 2-451.6 1417 1708 10.58% 18.60% 70.82%-1.80 -3.3 0
1931-04-19 Waterford W 3-159.7 1638 1648 39.06% 20.63% 40.32%-0.04 +12.2 15
1931-04-19 @ St. James Gate L 1-359.7 1648 1638 40.32% 20.63% 39.06%+0.04 -12.2 13
1931-04-27 Bray Unknowns W 3-259.8 1891 1623 69.29% 18.88% 11.83%+1.66 +2.3 23
1931-04-27 @ Bohemian L 2-359.8 1623 1891 11.83% 18.88% 69.29%-1.66 -2.3 15
1931-04-29 Cork FC D 1-170.7 1714 1707 41.32% 20.63% 38.05%+0.06 -0.1 24
1931-04-29 @ Brideville D 1-170.7 1707 1714 38.05% 20.63% 41.32%-0.06 +0.1 21
1931-04-29 Bohemian D 2-276.3 1626 1894 12.47% 18.97% 68.55%-1.61 +1.8 14
1931-04-29 @ Drumconda D 2-276.3 1894 1626 68.55% 18.97% 12.47%+1.61 -1.8 24
1931-04-30 Jacobs W 4-037.2 1635 1414 65.76% 19.41% 14.83%+1.37 +11.3 15
1931-04-30 @ Waterford L 0-437.2 1414 1635 14.83% 19.41% 65.76%-1.37 -11.3 0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1930-10-25 12.49% St. James Gate 1639 4 @ Shelbourne 1896 1
2 1930-12-14 13.53% @ Bray Unknowns 1606 4 Shamrock Rovers 1857 2
3 1930-09-20 14.24% Dolphin 1682 2 @ Shelbourne 1912 1
4 1930-11-23 16.04% @ Cork FC 1684 1 Bohemian 1899 0
5 1930-08-31 17.29% @ Drumconda 1645 2 Shamrock Rovers 1845 1
6 1930-12-21 17.90% Waterford 1657 2 @ Shamrock Rovers 1839 1
7 1930-11-29 17.97% Brideville 1707 4 @ Bohemian 1888 2
8 1930-09-07 28.06% Drumconda 1656 4 @ Dundalk 1738 1
9 1930-11-16 28.21% @ Waterford 1630 3 Dundalk 1721 0
10 1931-02-15 28.63% @ Dundalk 1730 6 Shamrock Rovers 1818 0
11 1930-09-14 28.73% Brideville 1626 4 @ Dolphin 1703 1
12 1930-10-12 29.43% Bray Unknowns 1597 3 @ Dolphin 1669 1
13 1930-10-11 29.51% @ Shamrock Rovers 1826 1 Shelbourne 1907 0
14 1930-09-28 30.30% St. James Gate 1628 3 @ Dolphin 1693 0
15 1930-08-30 31.16% @ Bray Unknowns 1581 3 Brideville 1648 1
16 1930-10-26 32.08% @ Bray Unknowns 1612 3 Drumconda 1672 0
17 1930-11-09 32.74% Cork FC 1695 4 @ Dundalk 1741 1
18 1930-09-07 33.08% Bray Unknowns 1595 2 @ St. James Gate 1638 1
19 1930-11-15 33.19% @ Dolphin 1663 6 Cork FC 1715 1
20 1931-02-15 33.61% @ Drumconda 1619 2 Waterford 1667 1
21 1930-10-12 33.94% Brideville 1671 3 @ Cork FC 1707 2
22 1931-02-15 34.79% Dolphin 1696 4 @ Brideville 1726 2
23 1930-08-24 37.17% @ Brideville 1635 3 Drumconda 1658 1
24 1930-11-09 37.28% Waterford 1623 3 @ Bray Unknowns 1635 2
25 1930-09-21 37.47% @ Brideville 1647 3 Waterford 1667 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1931-02-15 47.66 @ Dundalk 6 1730 28.63% Shamrock Rovers 0 1818 50.92% 20.45%
2 1930-11-15 30.54 @ Dolphin 6 1663 33.19% Cork FC 1 1715 46.24% 20.57%
3 1930-10-25 27.88 St. James Gate 4 1639 12.49% @ Shelbourne 1 1896 68.50% 19.02%
4 1930-11-16 25.11 @ Waterford 3 1630 28.21% Dundalk 0 1721 51.36% 20.43%
5 1930-09-28 24.17 St. James Gate 3 1628 30.30% @ Dolphin 0 1693 49.19% 20.51%
6 1930-10-26 23.39 @ Bray Unknowns 3 1612 32.08% Drumconda 0 1672 47.37% 20.55%
7 1930-09-07 21.23 Drumconda 4 1656 28.06% @ Dundalk 1 1738 51.50% 20.44%
8 1930-09-21 21.10 @ Brideville 3 1647 37.47% Waterford 0 1667 41.91% 20.62%
9 1930-09-14 20.98 Brideville 4 1626 28.73% @ Dolphin 1 1703 50.80% 20.47%
10 1930-11-09 19.47 Cork FC 4 1695 32.74% @ Dundalk 1 1741 46.70% 20.57%
11 1930-12-14 17.33 @ Bray Unknowns 4 1606 13.53% Shamrock Rovers 2 1857 67.31% 19.16%
12 1930-12-21 17.14 Dolphin 4 1679 39.35% @ St. James Gate 1 1677 40.02% 20.63%
13 1930-09-07 16.72 @ Cork FC 4 1683 40.59% Waterford 1 1681 38.78% 20.63%
14 1930-11-29 16.05 Brideville 4 1707 17.97% @ Bohemian 2 1888 62.24% 19.79%
15 1931-02-14 15.39 Cork FC 7 1692 44.40% @ St. James Gate 3 1654 35.00% 20.60%
16 1930-08-24 15.19 @ Dundalk 7 1724 44.97% Waterford 3 1691 34.43% 20.60%
17 1930-10-12 14.64 Bray Unknowns 3 1597 29.43% @ Dolphin 1 1669 50.08% 20.49%
18 1930-08-30 14.18 @ Bray Unknowns 3 1581 31.16% Brideville 1 1648 48.31% 20.52%
19 1930-11-16 13.70 Brideville 5 1684 43.21% @ Drumconda 2 1655 36.18% 20.61%
20 1930-10-12 13.24 @ Dundalk 4 1727 50.39% St. James Gate 1 1653 29.13% 20.48%
21 1930-08-24 12.66 @ Brideville 3 1635 37.17% Drumconda 1 1658 42.21% 20.62%
22 1930-09-13 12.34 @ Bohemian 5 1886 47.62% Shamrock Rovers 2 1833 31.83% 20.55%
23 1931-04-19 12.19 @ St. James Gate 3 1638 39.06% Waterford 1 1648 40.32% 20.63%
24 1930-10-26 11.92 Dolphin 3 1654 40.19% @ Waterford 1 1646 39.18% 20.63%
25 1931-03-04 11.85 Bohemian 4 1879 64.83% @ Waterford 0 1659 15.68% 19.49%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1930-12-06 81.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1856 38.15% Bohemian 3 1872 41.23% 20.62%
2 1930-12-14 79.7 @ Drumconda 3 1623 29.81% Cork FC 3 1701 49.70% 20.49%
3 1930-09-20 76.3 @ Dundalk 2 1726 19.70% Bohemian 2 1898 60.37% 19.93%
4 1930-12-06 76.3 @ Shelbourne 2 1880 66.02% Waterford 2 1655 14.61% 19.37%
5 1931-04-29 76.3 @ Drumconda 2 1626 12.47% Bohemian 2 1894 68.55% 18.97%
6 1930-09-07 76.0 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1834 57.28% Dolphin 2 1702 22.55% 20.17%
7 1930-10-18 76.0 @ Brideville 2 1678 21.07% Shamrock Rovers 2 1835 58.88% 20.04%
8 1930-08-31 75.5 @ Dolphin 2 1701 35.14% Dundalk 2 1739 44.26% 20.60%
9 1930-09-28 74.7 @ Bray Unknowns 2 1596 23.69% Dundalk 2 1728 56.08% 20.22%
10 1931-02-07 74.0 @ St. James Gate 2 1654 45.38% Drumconda 2 1618 34.03% 20.59%
11 1930-12-14 73.8 @ Bray Unknowns 4 1606 13.53% Shamrock Rovers 2 1857 67.31% 19.16%
12 1930-11-29 72.9 Brideville 4 1707 17.97% @ Bohemian 2 1888 62.24% 19.79%
13 1930-11-23 72.3 @ Dundalk 4 1696 39.94% Dolphin 3 1699 39.43% 20.63%
14 1930-09-14 71.7 @ Waterford 1 1665 13.59% Shelbourne 1 1914 67.23% 19.18%
15 1930-10-10 71.6 @ Bohemian 1 1900 66.44% Drumconda 1 1670 14.24% 19.32%
16 1930-11-15 71.6 @ Bohemian 1 1902 67.08% St. James Gate 1 1664 13.69% 19.23%
17 1930-10-18 71.5 @ Shelbourne 1 1898 59.98% Dundalk 1 1740 20.03% 19.99%
18 1931-02-14 71.4 @ Shelbourne 1 1910 44.72% Bohemian 1 1879 34.68% 20.60%
19 1930-09-20 71.2 Dolphin 2 1682 14.24% @ Shelbourne 1 1912 66.44% 19.32%
20 1930-09-28 71.2 @ Waterford 1 1646 18.75% Shamrock Rovers 1 1828 61.41% 19.84%
21 1930-10-26 70.7 @ Brideville 1 1679 31.86% Dundalk 1 1741 47.60% 20.54%
22 1931-04-29 70.7 @ Brideville 1 1714 41.32% Cork FC 1 1707 38.05% 20.63%
23 1930-12-07 70.5 @ Brideville 1 1723 47.38% St. James Gate 1 1672 32.06% 20.56%
24 1930-08-31 70.1 @ Drumconda 2 1645 17.29% Shamrock Rovers 1 1845 63.02% 19.69%
25 1930-10-05 69.9 Cork FC 4 1702 46.55% @ Waterford 3 1648 32.88% 20.56%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1931-04-30 37.2 @ Waterford 4 1635 65.76% Jacobs 0 1414 14.83% 19.41%
2 1931-02-15 41.2 @ Bray Unknowns 2 1617 63.27% Jacobs 0 1424 17.04% 19.69%
3 1930-09-03 42.9 @ Shelbourne 7 1907 77.90% Jacobs 0 1484 5.44% 16.66%
4 1930-08-23 43.4 @ Shelbourne 5 1891 71.47% Bray Unknowns 0 1590 10.06% 18.47%
5 1930-08-24 43.9 @ Shamrock Rovers 7 1833 73.15% Jacobs 0 1505 8.76% 18.09%
6 1930-12-07 43.9 @ Dundalk 7 1712 69.39% Jacobs 1 1443 11.74% 18.87%
7 1931-03-04 45.4 Bohemian 4 1879 64.83% @ Waterford 0 1659 15.68% 19.49%
8 1930-09-06 45.8 Bohemian 3 1877 66.77% @ Brideville 0 1634 13.99% 19.24%
9 1930-09-14 46.5 Dundalk 5 1717 66.48% @ Jacobs 1 1477 14.24% 19.28%
10 1930-11-29 46.5 Shelbourne 4 1877 77.91% @ Jacobs 1 1446 5.47% 16.62%
11 1930-09-20 47.3 @ St. James Gate 1 1624 59.75% Jacobs 0 1468 20.24% 20.00%
12 1930-12-20 47.4 Brideville 3 1722 70.47% @ Jacobs 1 1428 10.90% 18.63%
13 1930-12-20 47.6 @ Shelbourne 2 1885 68.87% Drumconda 0 1623 12.17% 18.95%
14 1930-11-09 48.3 Drumconda 3 1649 62.64% @ Jacobs 1 1453 17.63% 19.73%
15 1930-08-30 48.7 Cork FC 4 1674 61.24% @ Jacobs 1 1493 18.90% 19.86%
16 1930-09-27 48.9 Shelbourne 2 1901 65.24% @ Drumconda 0 1676 15.32% 19.44%
17 1930-12-13 49.7 Shelbourne 2 1878 62.32% @ Dolphin 0 1687 17.92% 19.76%
18 1930-11-02 50.7 @ Cork FC 2 1693 66.93% Jacobs 1 1456 13.82% 19.25%
19 1930-10-25 51.0 Bohemian 2 1898 78.28% @ Jacobs 1 1457 5.24% 16.48%
20 1930-09-21 51.1 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1821 65.38% Bray Unknowns 1 1604 15.17% 19.45%
21 1930-09-28 51.1 @ Brideville 2 1668 64.24% Jacobs 1 1464 16.17% 19.59%
22 1931-04-19 51.6 @ Dolphin 4 1708 70.82% Jacobs 2 1417 10.58% 18.60%
23 1930-08-23 51.7 Bohemian 1 1881 66.02% @ St. James Gate 0 1647 14.64% 19.34%
24 1930-12-14 52.3 St. James Gate 4 1673 66.53% @ Jacobs 2 1432 14.19% 19.27%
25 1931-02-08 52.3 Shelbourne 4 1902 63.19% @ Cork FC 1 1700 17.14% 19.67%